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DECEMBER 2018 201 8 -202 1

Florida & Metro

FORECAST


About University of Central Florida (UCF) The University of Central Florida is a public, multi-campus, metropolitan research university, dedicated to serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer highquality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region; to address national and international issues in key areas; to establish UCF as a major presence; and to contribute to the global community.

About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration advances the university’s mission and goal in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele nationally and internationally.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:


FLO R I DA & M E TRO FO R EC A S T 2018 - 2021

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2018 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director

Aasiyah Alli, Researcher

Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher

Adam Wing, Researcher

Brandt Dietry, Researcher

Sydney Boughan, Researcher

Isabella Yerby, Researcher

Wesley Giotta, Researcher

Tamara Williams, Researcher

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TA B LE O F CO NTENTS

Florida Highlights and Summary................................................. 5-13 Florida Forecast Tables.................................................................. 14-19 Florida Forecast Charts...............................................................20-28 Florida News Summaries.................................................................... 29 Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach...........................30-34 Gainesville........................................................................................... 35-39 Jacksonville....................................................................................... 40-44 Lakeland–Winter Haven...............................................................45-49 Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach.........................50-54 Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island............................................ 55-59 Ocala.................................................................................................... 60-64 Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford....................................................65-69 Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville................................................ 70-74 Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent......................................................75-79 Tallahassee......................................................................................... 80-84 Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater......................................... 85-89 Industry Location Quotient...............................................................90

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DECEMBER 2018 FLORIDA FORECAST • The Institute for Economic Competitiveness has won a major award! • From 2018-2021, Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.4%. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.7% in 2018 and 3.5% in 2019 before growth eases to 3.4% in 2020 and 3.0% in 2021. Average growth during 2018-2021 is expected to be 0.5 percentage points faster than our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period. • Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 2.5% in 2018, 2.2% in 2019, 1.9% in 2020, and 1.5% in 2021. Average job growth over the 2018-2021 period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.6% from 2018-2021. Consistently strong payroll job creation has strengthened Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment as well as attract out-of-state job seekers. Despite this, the unemployment rate will fall to 3.2% by mid-2019. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2018-2021 are Construction (5.6%), Professional & Business Services (3.8%), Financial (3.0%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.3%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (2.1%), and Education & Health Services (2.0%). • Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the near term. Total starts will be 131,123 in 2018; 143,475 in 2019; 153,530 in 2020; and 160,404 in 2021. House price appreciation will decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand tempered by higher prices and rising mortgage rates. • Real personal income growth will average 3.3% during 2018-2021, starting with 3.2% growth in 2018, easing to 2.8% growth in 2019, accelerating to 3.9% for 2020, and then to 3.3% in 2021. Florida’s average growth will be 0.4 percentage points higher than the national growth rate over that four-year span. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 4.9% during 2018-2021, boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida’s labor market, bigger paychecks, and rising household wealth.

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INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS

The Institute for Economic Competitiveness couldn’t be more proud to receive this major award. The aesthetics of this marvelous award are only heightened by the fact that it appears to be Italian in origin as the crate it arrived in had “fra-gee-lay” (fragile) stenciled on the outside.

We are grateful to be recognized for all the hard work we do each year providing forecasts to state and local governments, the business community, the general public, and anyone interested in our economic forecasts for the U.S. and Florida economies. Since 2006, we have produced the Florida & Metro Forecast which included a comprehensive forecast for the state’s economy as well as forecasts for 12 of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas. In 2019, we will be expanding the Florida & Metro Forecast to include all of Florida’s 22 metropolitan statistical areas. Furthermore, we will be producing forecasts for each of the three counties comprising the Greater Miami metropolitan area, so the Florida & Metro Forecast will contain not only the statewide forecast, but 25 regional forecasts as well. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

That’s right, we will be covering the state of Florida’s economy in 2019 better than Ralphie and Randy’s mom covered Randy as she dressed him to head to school. In 2019, the Florida & Metro Forecast will be the BB gun equivalent of an Official Red Ryder, Carbine-Action, Two-Hundred-Shot, Range Model Air Rifle, without the danger that you will shoot your eye out by reading it. As 2018 comes to an end, Floridians have much to be thankful for as far as the economy is concerned. The year is ending with momentum that will carry our state into 2019 and beyond as all sectors of the economy are humming along. The labor market is as strong as it was at the height of the housing bubble but without the unsustainable drivers that fed the economy back then and that, when they burst, led many Floridians to weave a tapestry of obscenity which, as far as we know, is still hanging in space over Lake Okeechobee. Sure, Florida man, http://www.tampabay.com/ news/publicsafety/naked-florida-man-revealed-onvideo-sneaking-into-restaurant-and-munching-on-


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ramen-20181112/, continues to tarnish our brand and elections seem to be a particular challenge in our state, but our economy continues to outperform the national economy and we expect that this trend will continue.

year (-31.5%), as are foreclosure/REO sales versus October 2017 (-21.0%). Traditional sales are up 10.5% year over year versus October 2017.

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.8% in October 2018. For condos, that figure is much higher, as 50.9% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminishing role of cash investors in Florida’s housing market amid some improvement in mortgage availability year over year.2

Happy Holidays and a Happy and Healthy New Year from all of us at the Institute for Economic Competitiveness!

Low Inventories, Strong Economy Still Fueling Price Appreciation The October 2018 single-family home report, released by Florida Realtors, reveals a market for existing housing that remains tight, fueling price appreciation that has driven prices above the highs of the housing bubble. The median sales price for singlefamily homes increased by $17,953 in October 2018, year over year, and now stands at $253,853—a yearover-year price appreciation of a robust 7.6%. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $10,000 year over year, registering at $180,000 in October of this year—a 5.9% bump. Inventories of single-family homes in May are up slightly from a year ago, but are just 4.0 months of supply, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report.1 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 5.6 months’ supply back in October of 2017 to 5.5 months’ this October. This indicates that the condo market has moved to a balance between buyers and sellers.

Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to plummet year over 1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market.

Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still contracting year over year (-28.2%), and foreclosure/REO sales are down sharply versus October 2017 (-28.2%). Traditional sales were up 16.5% in October 2018 when compared to October 2017.

Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a strong upward path, and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have exceeded their peak values during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market. Over the past several years, however, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of rapid price appreciation over the past three years and the limited inventory of houses for sale. The fundamental underpinnings of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue

2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 0.3 percent to 188.8 in November 2018 from September 2018. A rise in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Relative to that month, mortgages in November 2018 were 88.8% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900.

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FLORIDA SUMMARY Figure 1.

to outperform the U.S. labor market. Florida As more Baby Boomers continue Single-Family, Existing Homes to reach the end of their working 30,000 lives, this bodes well for continued Realtor Sales 25,000 population growth via the inMoving Average migration of retirees, not to mention 20,000 job seekers coming to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing 15,000 naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources 10,000 of domestic population growth, 5,000 international immigration will also feed into the state’s population 0 growth. We expect this upward trend in sales to resume as increases Source: Florida Realtors in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid In 2013, as the state was finally exiting our price appreciation given the improving economic and recession, Florida’s economy accelerated with a demographic foundations of demand for housing. growth rate of 1.9%, lifted by rising consumer Figure 2 displays median sales prices for singlefamily existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The doubledigit pace of price increases in 2016 and 2017 have eased in 2018. Still, over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by more than $17,300.

Low inventories of existing homes for sale and lagging housing starts growth contribute to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts to ramp up over the next several years. Singlefamily housing starts in 2021 are expected to increase by 198% from 2014 levels.

GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is still expected to grow at an average pace that is faster than what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years.

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth, and healing of the damage in the labor market—building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Growth accelerated to 4.0% in 2015, but eased in 2016 to 3.2%, before easing further to 2.2% in 2017; the national economy only grew 1.6% in 2016. Florida is poised for another acceleration in growth this year before growth eases again in 2019 through 2021.

The improvement of the fundamentals of the state’s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015 when RGSP expanded at 4.0%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date, before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2018 through 2019, however, growth will accelerate again as the Trump administration’s economic policy helps to boost Florida’s economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.7% and 3.5%. During 2018-2021, Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.4% annually. This average growth of 3.4% from 2018 through 2021 is a faster pace for average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged 2.8%).


FLORIDA SUMMARY Figure 2.

Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000

$250,000

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$200,000

$150,000

comes in again at 3.2%. From that point, personal income growth will slow to 2.8% in 2019, before surging again to 3.9% in 2020, and then easing to 3.3% in 2021. Real personal income growth during 2018-2021 will average 3.3% in Florida. Nominal personal income will exceed $1.235 trillion in 2021, marking an increase in personal income of nearly $606 billion from its nadir in 2009.

$100,000

$50,000

$0

Source: Florida Realtors

This projected average rate of growth for Florida’s economy is also faster than the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (2.9%).

Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing single family home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but now stand at $253,853. This ongoing price appreciation continues to improve household balance sheets in Florida. With this rapid price appreciation, Florida is close to recovering all the home equity wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the medianprice high of $257,800 in June of 2006. In 2018, Florida’ economy broke the $1 trillion threshold with a Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) of $1.030 trillion, that will then continue to climb to $1.096 trillion in 2019, before hitting $1.160 trillion in 2020, and $1.226 trillion in 2021.

PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND AUTO SALES In 2017, real personal income growth in Florida hit 3.2% after growing 2.5% in the prior year. Growth will be steady in 2018, as personal income growth

In 2018, real disposable income growth will average 3.7%, up from the previous year’s 3.3% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during 2018-2021 will remain strong at 3.4%, with tax cuts and faster wage and salary growth fueling the climb. Financial markets have experienced a tremendous bull market since the nadir of the financial crisis, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy, bolstered by three massive rounds of quantitative easing and anticipated policy from the Trump administration fueling a 2017 surge in stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it has been hovering at since hitting a high of 18,668. In 2016, financial markets got off to a rough start but recovered by spring. The stock market, once again, spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark—until the 2016 presidential election.

Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock market has set multiple records, with the Dow touching 26,951 at its peak to date (reached this in October). The stock market continued to repeatedly set and break through record highs from the election through 2017 and, though the all-time high was recently reached, 2018 has been a more volatile year for financial markets. For those households holding Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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stocks and bonds directly, or through retirement accounts, this bull-run has created tens of trillions of dollars of wealth.

The Fed implemented an interest rate hike in September of this year and will likely do so again at their December FOMC meeting. Interest rate hikes, which have come at a more rapid pace, may weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, faster economic growth should overcome the economic drag of higher interest rates, but the heady days the market experienced through 2017 will not be repeated. Home equity in Florida did not recover as rapidly as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been quickly climbing over the past four years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has eased somewhat, has driven significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians. Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow, boosting consumer confidence and spending, as well as financing the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida. Florida’s strong labor market recovery is sustaining its momentum. With wage and salary growth finally materializing and more home equity being recovered, this bodes well for consumer spending. Retail spending will remain strong through 2021, with growth averaging 4.9% during 2018-2021.

Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and continued strengthening in Florida’s labor market and the bigger paychecks that will accompany it.

Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand, growing robustly during 2010-2016, when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 9.9%.

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during 2018-2021. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 2.3%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2019 at 3.2%, before dipping in 2020 to 2.5%, and then slipping to 1.70% in 2021.

In 2021, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.45 million, rising slightly from the 2020 projection of 1.42 million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016, but the progrowth policies of the Trump administration will keep this sector moving forward, though maybe not in high gear.

EMPLOYMENT The pace of Florida’s labor market recovery continues to outpace the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida is that this will continue to be the case through at least 2021.

Payroll job growth was robust in 2016 at 3.5%. Growth decelerated last year to 2.2%, before it is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2018, ease to 2.2% in 2019, ease again to 1.9% in 2020, and further ease to 1.5% in 2021. Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short-run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon (2018-2021) by an average of 0.8 percentage points.

The Construction sector, crushed by the housing bubble, ended its contraction with total job losses coming in at just under 347,000. However, it is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida’s economy through the end of the 2021 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth in the Construction sector remains strong, supported by infrastructure spending and private spending, the pace of forecasted growth will ease somewhat from 2018 rates going forward as higher


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interest rates driven by Fed tightening will create a headwind for the housing sector.

Construction job growth decelerated in 2017 but remained strong, as housing starts continue to grow in an environment that has significant price appreciation for existing single family homes and low levels of inventories. Despite the periodic plateauing in housing starts over the past five years, growth rates over the forecast horizon will support construction job growth of 7.7% in 2018, before decelerating to 4.9% in 2019, then to 4.1% in 2020, and rising to 5.5% in 2021. Average annual job growth during 2018-2021 will be 5.6%. Employment will average 625,462 in 2021—a level that is some 56,000 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $49,372.3

The Professional & Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through 2021. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 3.8% during 20182021. Job growth in this sector over the past three years averaged 4.3%, but growth will be slightly slower over the next four years. Job growth eased in 2017 to 3.0% after growing 5.0% in 2016, and will decelerate to 2.4% in 2018. Growth in this sector will accelerate to 3.0% in 2019, before rising again to 5.8% in 2020, and then slipping to 3.8% in 2021. The Professional & Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service-providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are nearly $56,968. The 3 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: http://floridajobs.org/labor-market-information/datacenter/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-of-employment-andwages

Professional & Business Services sector in Florida recovered very quickly from the recession and was the first to recover all of its payroll jobs lost during the recession and will continue to robustly perform through 2021.

In 2013, the Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years, with job growth of 0.4%. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose momentum once again in 2015. The Information sector is a mix of high-tech sectors such as computer programming and software development—both sources of growth—and legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which weigh down the sector by continuing to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, are beginning to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth will remain muted.

Job growth is expected to be -0.5% in 2018, 1.0% in 2019, and -1.1% in 2020 before rising to 1.7% in 2021. This projected growth path implies an average growth rate of 0.8% during 2018-2021. Average salaries for this sector in Florida stand at $78,128. The Education & Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently even during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state’s share of population of older residents, who have higher demand for health services, has supported this growth. The future of the Affordable Care Act is still unclear, and this creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector. Despite this uncertainty, job growth will continue at a diminished rate. During 2018-2021, employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 2.3%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $51,372. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at

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an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; in 2017, growth eased but was still a strong 2.3%. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is tenuous, as trade agreements are in flux and the U.S. dollar has strengthened over the first half of the year. The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, and Brexit and its continued aftermath, have all fed into the current global economic environment. The Trump administration’s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the short run they create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector.

These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but for Florida in 2018, job growth will average 3.5%. We are looking at job growth of 1.4% in manufacturing for 2019, followed by a deceleration to -0.7% in 2020, with a further slowing of growth in 2021 when manufacturing employment will contract at an average rate of 1.9%. Average job growth during 2018-2021 will thus come in at 0.7%.

The State & Local Government sector in Florida is enjoying improved revenue flows, though not fully back to the windfall levels of the housing bubble. As housing prices continue to climb, property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through 2014. Despite growing tax revenues, the specter of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued. As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government

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services will grow as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. Average job growth in State & Local Government during 2018-2021 will be 0.8%, with annual growth rising to 1.2% in 2020, and remaining near there through 2021. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near-term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will average 0.8% during 2018-2021 with growth turning negative in 2021 after the temporary hiring surge during the census year in 2020. Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately, cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell (reform is needed here as well), consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The fiscal policies of the Trump administration—spending coupled with tax cuts—will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years, particularly in an environment of rising interest rates.

As the Federal Reserve moves forward with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than $21.6 trillion and poised to go higher will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trilliondollar deficits has been dampened by historically low interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain is going to intensify as Treasury rates climb along with the Fed’s increases in the federal funds rate, higher rates of inflation, and a Trump administration that is reflating annual budget deficits.

UNEMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at just 3.4% as of October


FLORIDA SUMMARY

2018. After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s August 2018 unemployment rate is 0.3 percentage points below the national unemployment rate. Florida’s labor force participation rate in October 2018 stood at 59.1%, which is down from 59.5% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.9% in October 2018, which is up 0.2 percentage points from October 2017. This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since March of 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession.

The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. The share of retirees in that population, who are older than sixteen, but who no longer are active in the labor force, push down the overall labor force participation rate. This relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are in retirement explains why the state’s labor force participation rate is lower than the national rate, and the continued migration of retirees to the Sunshine State should further weigh on the participation rate. In October 2018, Florida’s population over the age of sixteen grew by 297,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 107,000.

We are forecasting strong economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This rapid economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly difficult. After 2017’s growth of 2.6%, we expect the labor force to grow more slowly than this level during 2018-2021 at an average rate of 1.6%, with increasing downward pressure on participation rates from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida’s labor force. This will result in slower declines in the unemployment

rate, but this will not stop the downward trend in unemployment rates over the next year.

Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force—defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want to and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months—remains elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6. Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is healing well from the ravages of the Great Recession. U-6 in Florida averaged 7.9% from the 4th quarter 2017 through the 3rd quarter of 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 7.8% over that same time period. U-6 unemployment in Florida is currently far below its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 11.4 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation’s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010).

Analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) provides important information necessary to fully understand the health of the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment is narrowing. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 3.8 percentage points, while that gap is 4.2 percentage points in Florida.

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Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2013

2014

2015

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch Year ago)

794.8 0.4

858.5 8.0

919.2 7.1

U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago)

1.2 791.6 -1.1

5.7 840.8 6.2

U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$)

-0.1 709.9

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Personal Income and GSP

4.9 897.7 6.8

953.3 3.7 2.6 920.1 2.5

1000.6 5.0 4.4 949.7 3.2

1053.3 5.3 4.5 980.3 3.2

1107.0 5.1 4.9 1008.2 2.8

1171.8 5.9 5.6 1047.6 3.9

1235.3 5.4 5.1 1082.1 3.3

4.1 752.0

4.6 797.7

1.5 826.6

2.6 853.5

2.3 884.9

2.6 909.1

3.7 943.9

3.0 974.5

-2.2 -1.3

5.9 4.0

6.1 4.1

3.6 1.7

3.3 2.6

3.7 2.8

2.7 2.5

3.8 3.6

3.2 2.9

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago)

800.7 4.1

839.7 4.9

895.0 6.6

938.1 4.8

976.4 4.1

1034.8 6.0

1095.7 5.9

1160.2 5.9

1226.0 5.7

GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

784.1 1.9

804.3 2.6

836.8 4.0

863.8 3.2

883.1 2.2

915.8 3.7

947.6 3.5

980.0 3.4

1009.8 3.0

Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 2.3 1.4 2.9 3.3 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.8 1.3 0.5 2.2 2.6 1.3 1.7 1.9 7.2 6.3 5.4 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.2 3.3

1.2 1.4 3.5

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

7.4

3.5

6.2

5.3

4.9

4.4

3.9

3.4

3.4

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous)

1.9 3.2 0.9 8.5 2.9 1.2 3.8 3.2 2.0 3.9 1.7 4.3

2.1 3.6 1.9 8.8 3.4 1.5 4.3 4.6 2.2 3.7 2.4 5.0

1.8 3.5 -1.5 9.9 3.6 4.0 3.4 4.5 1.5 1.9 2.4 5.0

1.6 2.2 -1.3 6.1 2.3 1.9 2.5 3.0 1.3 1.0 2.8 3.0

1.6 2.5 1.7 7.7 3.5 2.3 4.0 4.6 0.2 0.4 3.1 2.4

1.6 2.2 -0.2 4.9 1.4 0.9 1.6 3.5 2.5 -0.6 3.9 3.0

1.1 1.9 -1.3 4.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 0.1 1.3 -0.9 3.1 5.8

0.7 1.5 -0.8 5.5 -1.5 -0.6 -1.9 0.1 0.8 -0.3 1.7 3.8

1.7 4.0 0.4

2.7 4.6 1.5

3.5 4.5 0.3

3.6 3.6 0.6

2.4 2.3 0.4

2.8 4.0 -0.5

3.1 2.2 1.0

1.2 1.3 -1.1

1.1 1.8 1.7

-0.5 -0.2

-0.5 -0.1

2.0 0.5

2.5 1.2

1.2 0.9

0.2 0.1

0.5 0.6

5.2 1.2

-2.9 1.2

Population and Migration 19628.4 19947.7 20318.1 20693.8 21035.9 21366.5 21683.1 21999.5 22315.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 244.3 306.6 351.7 334.3 330.2 290.4 297.7 294.1 293.9

(%Ch Year ago)

17.0

25.9

15.6

-4.6

0.2

-11.2

2.7

-1.2

-0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

80.7 54.6 26.1

79.6 55.9 23.7

103.2 68.3 34.9

112.6 77.4 35.2

Housing 117.3 85.6 31.7

131.1 92.6 38.5

143.5 98.5 45.0

153.5 106.6 46.9

160.4 110.9 49.5

1.6

1.8

0.3

2.6

1.8

2.1

(%Ch Year ago) 14

1.6 2.5 0.5 7.0 1.6 -0.2 2.5 2.7 1.0 2.7 2.6 4.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

Consumer Prices 1.6 2.5

2.8


F lorida T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

Personal Income and GSP 1115.1 1131.5 1148.1 1164.1

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Personal Income (Bil. $)

1047.5

1059.3

1069.9

1082.8

1098.7

1179.7

1195.4

1211.7

1227.5

Florida (%Ch Year ago)

5.5

5.4

4.9

4.5

4.9

5.3

5.8

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.4

4.7 976.9

4.6 984.3

4.3 988.4

4.3 993.8

4.7 1003.1

5.0 1012.9

5.5 1022.9

5.8 1033.2

5.7 1043.5

5.6 1052.0

5.4 1061.7

5.2 1070.1

5.1 1078.1

Florida (%Ch Year ago)

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.3

2.7

2.9

3.5

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.3

U.S. (%Ch Year ago)

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.6

3.2

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.0

882.1

888.3

891.7

896.5

904.6

913.2

921.9

931.1

940.2

947.8

956.4

963.9

970.9

3.9 2.9

3.7 2.9

3.2 2.6

2.2 2.0

2.5 2.3

2.8 2.5

3.4 3.1

3.9 3.5

3.9 3.7

3.8 3.6

3.7 3.5

3.5 3.3

3.3 2.9

1029.2

1043.6

1055.9

1071.6

1087.7

1104.3

1119.3

1136.4

1152.2

1168.0

1184.3

1201.2

1217.7

6.3

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.7

5.8

6.0

6.0

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

912.2 3.9

921.5 4.2

927.2 3.8

935.3 3.7

943.7 3.5

951.8 3.3

959.7 3.5

968.8 3.6

976.5 3.5

983.5 3.3

991.3 3.3

998.9 3.1

1006.2 3.0

1.7 1.3 3.8 3.9

1.6 1.2 3.6 3.8

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago) 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5

1.3 1.5 3.5 3.5

1.0 1.2 3.5 3.5

U.S. (%Ch Year ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch Year ago) U.S. (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch Year ago) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch Year ago)

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

NonFarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

1.6 2.1 1.7 6.6 3.5 2.2 4.2 3.9 -0.8 0.5 3.0

1.7 3.2 3.6 9.9 4.5 3.0 5.1 5.3 0.0 1.4 3.5

1.7 2.5 2.8 8.0 3.8 2.7 4.3 5.8 1.0 -0.8 3.2

1.7 2.4 2.1 5.8 2.9 2.2 3.3 5.5 1.8 -0.3 3.7

1.6 2.3 0.2 5.6 1.4 0.9 1.6 4.2 3.3 -0.7 4.0

1.5 2.0 -1.3 4.3 0.8 0.5 0.9 3.1 3.1 -1.4 4.1

Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

2.5 1.9 3.3 -1.3 0.2

3.0 3.3 5.7 -0.2 0.3

0.9 4.5 4.2 0.5 0.1

0.8 4.1 4.0 0.7 0.3

2.2 3.8 2.5 2.2 0.7

0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.4

State & Local Gov't.

1.4 2.1 -1.9 3.8 0.5 0.1 0.8 1.2 2.0 -0.2

1.3 1.9 -1.7 3.6 0.2 -0.4 0.4 0.5 1.6 -0.7

1.3 2.0 -1.5 3.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 0.2 1.4 -1.0

1.0 1.8 -1.1 4.3 -0.9 -0.7 -1.0 -0.1 1.1 -0.9

0.9 1.7 -1.0 4.8 -1.5 -0.9 -1.8 -0.1 1.1 -1.0

0.8 1.7 -1.0 5.3 -1.7 -0.8 -2.1 0.0 0.9 -0.7

0.6 1.5 -0.9 5.5 -1.6 -0.7 -2.0 0.2 0.9 -0.3

3.4 2.7 1.3 1.7 0.7

3.8 5.7 1.6 1.1 -0.5 0.5

3.7 6.2 1.3 0.6 -1.4 1.8

3.2 6.1 1.1 1.1 -2.4 14.5

2.9 5.6 1.2 1.6 -1.2 4.3

2.6 5.2 1.3 1.8 0.4 0.3

2.1 4.5 1.3 1.9 1.3 -0.3

1.9 3.9 1.2 2.0 1.9 -11.0

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch Year ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch Year ago)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch Year ago)

21,328.2 21,402.4 21,483.3 21,563.8 21,643.7 21,722.9 21,802.1 21,881.1 21,960.1 22,038.9 22,117.8 22,196.7 22,275.7

1.6 70.9 -7.5

1.5 68.9 -27.6

1.5 75.7 -7.6

1.5 75.3 0.5

1.5 74.6 5.3

1.5 74.0 7.4

1.5 73.8 -2.4

1.5 73.7 -2.1

1.5 73.6 -1.4

1.5 73.4 -0.8

1.4 73.4 -0.6

1.4 73.4 -0.4

1.4 73.5 -0.1

129.4 97.3 32.1

129.7 90.4 39.3

140.0 93.0 47.0

143.6 96.0 47.6

143.0 97.0 46.0

142.1 99.7 42.4

Housing 145.2 101.2 44.0

149.1 104.0 45.1

152.9 106.4 46.5

155.5 108.0 47.5

156.6 108.1 48.4

157.3 108.4 48.9

159.3 110.1 49.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.8

Consumer Prices 2.8 2.6 2.2

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.7

2.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15


F lorida T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly*

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,750.0 8,818.9 8,852.5 8,907.2 8,952.9 8,995.0 9,035.5 9,075.8 9,128.7 9,159.7 9,192.5 9,227.4 9,262.6

Manufacturing

376.8

378.6

379.8

380.8

382.0

381.6

381.9

381.4

379.7

378.3

376.3

374.9

373.5

Durable Goods

257.3

258.7

259.5

260.0

261.4

261.2

261.5

261.1

259.7

258.6

256.9

255.7

254.4

Wood Products

14.3

14.4

14.4

14.5

14.5

14.6

14.7

14.7

14.7

14.8

14.8

14.8

14.9

Computer & Electronics

42.1

42.2

42.4

42.4

42.4

42.3

42.2

42.2

42.2

42.2

42.1

42.0

41.9

Transportation Equipment

42.2

42.3

42.0

42.0

42.2

42.1

41.9

41.7

41.3

40.8

40.4

40.1

39.8

119.5

119.9

120.4

120.8

120.6

120.5

120.4

120.3

119.9

119.7

119.4

119.2

119.1

32.5

32.6

32.8

33.1

33.2

33.3

33.4

33.5

33.4

33.5

33.5

33.5

33.5

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

8,373.2 8,440.3 8,472.6 8,526.5 8,570.8 8,613.4 8,653.6 8,694.4 8,749.0 8,781.4 8,816.2 8,852.5 8,889.1 5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.6

Construction

537.1

547.7

555.2

562.0

567.3

571.4

576.2

582.0

588.7

596.1

603.7

612.6

621.2

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

297.6

301.7

307.9

309.5

310.1

310.9

311.5

311.0

310.7

310.7

311.1

311.0

311.4

Wholesale Trade

341.6

343.9

348.6

350.9

352.7

354.4

355.5

356.7

357.5

358.2

359.4

360.0

360.8

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1,120.2 1,124.9 1,109.8 1,113.0 1,112.0 1,109.6 1,107.2 1,105.6 1,101.1 1,099.3 1,096.6 1,097.9 1,097.7 136.7

136.4

137.8

138.7

139.8

138.7

137.2

136.7

136.4

137.1

137.8

138.4

139.0

1,352.2 1,358.3 1,349.2 1,362.9 1,381.7 1,405.1 1,426.6 1,447.8 1,466.2 1,484.1 1,500.4 1,512.7 1,523.8

Admin. & Support

687.1

685.2

668.3

674.1

682.8

694.3

703.4

713.5

723.3

733.2

743.2

750.6

758.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

559.3

565.9

573.0

580.5

590.4

602.0

614.2

625.0

633.1

640.7

646.6

651.1

654.0

Mgmt. of Co.

105.8

107.2

107.9

108.2

108.5

108.8

109.0

109.3

109.9

110.3

110.7

111.0

111.2

Financial Activities

576.6

581.5

588.5

593.7

599.9

605.5

611.1

615.6

619.1

623.1

626.7

628.8

630.7

Real Estate & Rent

193.4

195.1

198.2

200.9

203.0

204.8

206.4

207.6

208.6

209.5

210.4

211.1

211.5

Fin. & Insurance

383.2

386.4

390.3

392.7

396.9

400.7

404.7

408.0

410.5

413.6

416.3

417.7

419.2

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

1,298.2 1,315.4 1,333.3 1,340.3 1,347.7 1,351.3 1,354.6 1,358.1 1,362.4 1,367.9 1,372.5 1,375.5 1,378.3 166.9

172.4

173.1

172.9

172.1

171.5

170.7

169.7

168.8

168.4

167.8

167.2

166.9

Health Services

1,131.4 1,143.0 1,160.2 1,167.4 1,175.6 1,179.8 1,184.0 1,188.3 1,193.7 1,199.5 1,204.8 1,208.3 1,211.4

Leisure & Hospitality

1,244.1 1,261.5 1,267.6 1,275.6 1,275.4 1,278.1 1,281.4 1,283.5 1,288.9 1,298.7 1,304.5 1,307.8 1,314.1

Other Services Government

355.5

358.2

361.6

364.9

366.4

367.3

367.5

367.9

367.5

367.3

367.2

367.3

367.5

1,107.7 1,105.0 1,107.3 1,109.3 1,112.1 1,115.4 1,119.1 1,123.9 1,144.7 1,133.3 1,130.7 1,135.0 1,138.9

Federal Gov't.

139.0

139.2

139.6

139.8

140.0

140.1

140.3

142.2

160.2

146.2

140.7

141.9

142.5

State & Local Gov't

968.7

965.8

967.7

969.5

972.2

975.3

978.8

981.7

984.5

987.1

990.1

993.1

996.4

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida T ables Table 4. Employment Annual

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7,581.4

7,824.4

8,107.4

8,388.2

8,569.6

8,780.1

8,972.7

9,139.2

9,280.4

Manufacturing

322.3

331.8

343.1

355.4

363.6

376.3

381.6

378.9

373.2

Durable Goods

215.1

223.2

232.8

240.8

246.8

256.8

261.0

259.1

254.1

Wood Products

10.4

11.2

12.6

13.5

14.0

14.3

14.6

14.7

15.0

Computer & Electronics

41.0

40.7

41.1

41.2

41.6

42.1

42.3

42.2

41.9

Transportation Equipment

36.4

37.5

39.4

40.8

41.7

42.1

42.1

41.0

39.6

107.3

108.6

110.2

114.7

116.8

119.5

120.6

119.8

119.1

29.5

29.8

30.3

31.4

32.0

32.5

33.3

33.5

33.6

7,259.1

7,492.6

7,764.4

8,032.7

8,206.0

8,403.8

8,591.1

8,760.3

8,907.2

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

Construction

366.2

397.4

432.5

475.2

504.1

542.8

569.2

592.6

625.5

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

247.0

254.9

266.7

278.6

287.0

300.1

310.5

310.9

311.2

Wholesale Trade

320.9

327.4

334.8

339.7

344.1

344.7

353.4

357.9

360.9

1,004.6

1,043.3

1,081.4

1,102.3

1,113.7

1,117.7

1,110.4

1,100.7

1,097.3

134.2

136.2

136.5

137.4

137.9

137.2

138.6

137.0

139.4

1,117.0

1,164.7

1,222.6

1,283.9

1,321.8

1,352.8

1,394.1

1,474.6

1,531.1

Admin. & Support

558.4

585.5

619.5

654.2

673.9

683.6

688.7

728.3

764.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

467.4

485.1

506.5

528.8

544.5

562.9

596.8

636.3

655.0

91.2

94.1

96.7

100.8

103.5

106.3

108.6

110.0

111.2

Financial Activities

512.7

521.4

534.1

546.8

562.2

579.8

602.5

621.1

631.7

Real Estate & Rent

165.4

171.0

176.8

180.3

184.9

194.5

203.8

209.0

211.8

Fin. & Insurance

347.3

350.4

357.3

366.5

377.3

385.4

398.7

412.1

419.9

1,128.2

1,159.2

1,200.2

1,243.9

1,273.2

1,308.6

1,348.5

1,365.2

1,379.6

Education Services

142.6

147.8

151.8

156.9

162.8

169.5

171.8

168.7

166.9

Health Services

985.5

1,011.4

1,048.3

1,087.0

1,110.4

1,139.1

1,176.7

1,196.6

1,212.7

1,037.4

1,085.3

1,134.3

1,175.0

1,202.0

1,250.0

1,277.6

1,293.9

1,317.0

309.2

323.1

333.8

347.6

347.6

356.5

366.5

367.5

367.3

1,076.0

1,074.1

1,081.6

1,096.8

1,106.8

1,107.8

1,114.0

1,133.2

1,140.7

Federal Gov't.

132.0

131.3

133.9

137.3

139.0

139.3

140.0

147.3

142.7

State & Local Gov't

944.0

942.8

947.7

959.5

967.8

968.5

973.9

985.8

997.9

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F lorida T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly*

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries

1047.5 1059.3 1069.9 1082.8 1098.7 1115.1 1131.5 1148.1 1164.1 1179.7 1195.4 1211.7 1227.5 468.7

475.3

480.9

486.9

493.2

500.1

507.2

514.1

521.3

527.6

534.6

541.8

549.3

Other Labor Income

96.0

96.7

97.3

98.3

99.4

100.7

101.9

103.5

104.8

106.2

107.6

109.3

110.5

Nonfarm

61.1

62.0

62.6

63.5

64.3

65.1

65.8

66.1

66.5

67.1

67.2

67.6

68.1

1.4

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Property Income

283.7

286.7

289.1

291.8

297.7

303.3

308.8

313.8

318.6

323.4

328.2

332.9

337.6

Transfer Payments

205.9

208.3

210.6

214.0

216.5

219.2

221.9

225.7

228.8

232.0

235.3

238.8

241.6

73.0

73.9

74.8

75.8

76.7

77.7

78.7

79.9

80.8

81.8

82.9

84.3

85.3

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

976.9

984.3

988.4

993.8 1003.1 1012.9 1022.9 1033.2 1043.5 1052.0 1061.7 1070.1 1078.1

Wages & Salaries

437.2

441.6

444.3

446.9

450.3

454.3

458.5

462.6

467.3

470.5

474.8

478.5

482.4

Other Labor Income

89.5

89.8

89.9

90.2

90.8

91.4

92.1

93.2

93.9

94.7

95.6

96.5

97.1

Nonfarm

57.0

57.6

57.8

58.2

58.7

59.1

59.5

59.5

59.6

59.8

59.7

59.7

59.8

1.3

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.4

Property Income

264.6

266.4

267.1

267.8

271.8

275.5

279.1

282.4

285.6

288.4

291.4

294.0

296.5

Transfer Payments

192.1

193.5

194.6

196.4

197.7

199.1

200.6

203.1

205.1

206.9

209.0

210.9

212.2

68.0

68.6

69.1

69.6

70.0

70.6

71.1

71.9

72.5

73.0

73.7

74.5

74.9

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

1321.2 1350.0 1372.2 1367.2 1388.3 1391.6 1403.4 1409.6 1419.2 1426.5 1432.1 1437.7 1445.1

Retail Sales (Billions $)

368.5

372.3

377.4

383.4

387.7

392.2

396.8

401.0

405.2

410.8

414.6

419.5

424.4

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

343.7

346.0

348.7

351.9

353.9

356.2

358.7

360.9

363.3

366.3

368.2

370.5

372.8

*Quarterly at an annual rate

18

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

794.8

858.5

919.2

953.3

1000.6

1053.3

1107.0

1171.8

1235.3

Wages & Salaries

358.2

378.7

403.9

423.4

445.0

472.0

496.9

524.4

553.0

Other Labor Income

80.4

82.1

87.0

88.2

92.0

96.3

100.1

105.5

111.4

Nonfarm

42.9

50.1

51.8

54.9

58.0

61.5

64.6

66.7

68.4

1.4

1.5

2.4

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.6

1.2

1.5

Property Income

204.6

231.5

253.2

259.8

272.5

285.2

300.4

321.0

339.6

Transfer Payments

160.9

171.2

180.6

188.3

197.6

207.4

217.9

230.4

243.2

56.7

59.8

63.0

66.0

69.1

73.4

77.2

81.4

85.9

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2009 $ Personal Income

791.6

840.8

897.7

920.1

949.7

980.3

1008.2

1047.6

1082.1

Wages & Salaries

356.8

370.9

394.4

408.6

422.4

439.2

452.5

468.8

484.4

Other Labor Income

80.1

80.4

85.0

85.1

87.3

89.6

91.1

94.3

97.6

Nonfarm

42.8

49.0

50.6

53.0

55.1

57.3

58.9

59.6

59.9

1.4

1.5

2.3

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.5

1.1

1.3

Property Income

203.8

226.7

247.2

250.8

258.6

265.4

273.6

287.0

297.5

Transfer Payments

160.3

167.7

176.3

181.7

187.6

193.0

198.4

206.0

213.1

56.5

58.6

61.5

63.7

65.6

68.3

70.3

72.7

75.3

1101.0

1224.2

1337.3

1352.7

1321.7

1345.2

1387.6

1421.9

1445.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

294.0

311.4

325.0

334.6

352.3

370.2

390.0

407.9

426.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$)

292.8

305.0

317.4

323.0

334.4

344.5

355.2

364.6

373.8

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F lorida C harts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

20

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida C harts

Florida Consumer Price Index 6%

(% change year ago)

4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL CPI

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1400.0

(Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F lorida C harts

Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands)

170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0

22

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida C harts

Florida Information Employment 170.0

(Thousands)

160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Gross State Product 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6%

(% change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F lorida C harts

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0 250.0

6.0%

200.0

5.0%

150.0 100.0

4.0%

50.0 0.0

7.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

3.0%

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

24

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida C harts

Florida Manufacturing Employment 420.0

(Thousands)

400.0 380.0 360.0 340.0 320.0 300.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(% change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F lorida C harts

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 9% 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands)

1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0

26

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida C harts

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(% change year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1020.0

(Thousands)

1000.0 980.0 960.0 940.0 920.0 900.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F lorida C harts

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Unemployment Rate

Florida Population (Thousands)

23000.0 22000.0 21000.0 20000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9500.0 9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0

28

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


F lorida N ews S ummaries ‘Red Tide’ closes Florida beaches, could impact millions in tourism dollars

• Florida’s “red tide” phenomenon, caused by blooms of toxic algae, may hurt Florida’s tourism revenue as it continues to cause beach closures throughout the state. • Long-term exposure to the algae can cause health issues, and the algae has caused fish to die in large numbers along the coast. Scientists are looking into whether the algae were carried to Florida’s shores by currents or if it appeared on its own.

• The problem can be worsened by agricultural runoff and other forms of pollution. Governor Rick Scott has pledged $3 million in state funding to assist counties that have been affected.

Source: CBS News, October 4, 2018

Hurricane Michael: real estate experts anticipate billions in storm damage

• Hurricane Michael struck the Florida Panhandle as a Category 4 storm, and was called a “catastrophic event” by the National Weather Service and “the worst storm that our Florida Panhandle has seen in a century” by Governor Rick Scott.

• An analysis by CoreLogic predicts that total damage will be between $2 and $4.5 billion to residential and commercial property. Hurricane warnings were issued to an area that is home to roughly $160 billion worth of residential property. • In addition to the risks to residential property, Morningstar Credit Ratings estimated that $1.2 billion in commercial real estate was at risk from the storm.

Source: Curbed, October 10, 2018

Florida gas prices drop to lowest since December 2017

• The average price for gasoline in Florida sat at $2.42 per gallon in late November, the lowest the state has seen in 11 months. This compared favorably to a national average price of $2.56 per gallon.

• AAA spokesman Mark Jenkins suggested that the drop was mostly due to leaps in crude oil production in the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. • Jenkins estimated that prices would plunge even further, stating, “Florida motorists should see gas

prices drop another 5 to 15 cents as a direct result of the recent crude drop.”

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 26, 2018

The state of cannabis: who will dominate Florida’s cannabis market?

• Florida’s medical marijuana scene is taking off after recent legalization, and it remains to be seen whether a dominant player will emerge. • Florida law allows each licensee to open 30 dispensaries, and that limit will soon rise to 35. The number of eligible patients in the state has skyrocketed 280% year-over-year and currently sits at 193,083.

• Currently, there are 74 dispensaries in Florida. Of these, 22 are owned by Trulieve and 17 are owned by Curaleaf, but large competitors Medmen and Green Thumb are expected to open multiple locations as well.

Source: Seeking Alpha, November 26, 2018

Florida Attorney General sues Marlin Financial over loan practices

• Online auto loan company Marlin Financial is being sued by the Attorney General’s office for what the AG says are “unfair and deceptive trade practices.”

• The lawsuit is centered on a clause in Marlin’s loan contracts that was billed as a “debt cancellation product.” It was marketed to consumers as an insurance-like product in case the car was totaled before being paid off, but instead, it dramatically increased the loan cost. It was also purportedly optional, but the lawsuit alleges that it was in fact mandatory given the hurdles customers needed to clear to have it waived. • The lawsuit asks for a $10,000 penalty for each act and a $15,000 penalty for acts that affected senior citizens.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 5, 2018

Report: Floridians spending bigger share of their income on health premiums

• Amid rising healthcare costs nationwide, Florida is one of 11 states in which the average resident spends more than 8 percent of their income on health insurance premiums, according to a study by The Commonwealth Fund. • Even though costs for employer-sponsored premiums have dropped slightly year-over-year, they still leave Florida in the upper echelon of costs as a percentage of income and overall costs. One contributing factor is that Florida’s median income is below the national average. • Nationally, premium and deductible costs for the average person are almost 12 percent of the median

income.

Source: Health News Florida, December 7, 2018 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 4.8 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $40,400. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $47,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Population growth will average 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 18,903.49 million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.1 percent each year. Unemployment will average 3.7 percent, the second highest of the studied areas. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 3.9 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.3 percent annually. The Federal Government and Financial sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 1.5 and 1.1 percent respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Civilian labor force of 301,341 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.2% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,735 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503 • Halifax Health – 4,709

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• County of Volusia – 3,341

Jimmy Hula’s restaurant to open in Port Orange

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256 • Daytona State College – 1,568

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

• By spring of 2019, Jimmy Hula’s will open its second location, which will be located at 65 Dunalawton Boulevard in Port Orange.

• This “surf shack” themed restaurant plans to seat 150 customers as well as employ at least 50 workers. Along with its 3,600-square-foot design, this restaurant will also feature an outdoor dining area.

• Jose Cifuentes, who will co-own this new location, stated, “[T]he new restaurant will be the 16th Jimmy Hula’s to open in Florida.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, October 8, 2018

30

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Volusia teacher contracts settled for 3 percent raise and longer elementary school day

• After six months of bargaining sessions, both the Volusia County school district and the teachers union came to a three-year agreement for teacher contracts. • This contract includes a 3 percent raise and an extended school day that is 30 minutes longer for elementary students who are starting next August.

• Elizabeth Albert, the new president of Volusia United Educators, stated, “We have about two and a half years before we go at this again, and that is a time that I’m hoping folks will relax. I hope the level of frustration and anxiety in the district will diminish, and I hope we can build bridges in the district where we need to.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, October 30, 2018 Packed Volusia School Board agenda includes $8 million property sale

• After two years, Volusia County School Board has planned a meeting for a chance to obtain $8 million from capital projects.

• In Flagler County, realtors reported 212 closed sales of single-family homes. These transactions had a median sales price rising 11.1 percent yearover-year to $244,401. • Toby Tobin, a realtor with Grand Living Realty in Palm Coast states, “I think prices will continue to grow here after they’ve stopped growing on other parts of the country.”

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 26, 2018 Daytona to spend $938K on artificial turf for Tortugas

• Daytona Beach city commissioners signed a contract to spend $938,391 on the installment of synthetic turf at Jackie Robinson Ballpark. • The city plans to pay for the turf using a $355,000 grant from the Racing and Recreational Facilities and another $583,391 grant from a capital project fund.

• The turf will be installed and ready to use by March 1st.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, December 5, 2018

• This includes the sale of two properties, including a Daytona parcel next to Advanced Technology College that will be sold to Southeast Real Estate Acquisitions, LLC. • A four-acre parcel next to Daytona State College will also be sold to J.W Kern Investments, LLC for $1.8 million.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, November 4, 2018 Flagler, Volusia home prices continue to climb

• In October, home sales and prices are rising for both Volusia and Flagler counties. In Volusia County, realtors reported 757 closed sales, with the median sale price for the closed sales rising 8.9 percent year-over-year to $202,000.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

20000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

17000.0 16000.0 15000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

32

1.4

18000.0

210.0

160.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

14000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 220.0

1.0

19000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.8

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Deltona Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

21.3 1.1 6.7 14.6 21.2 -0.4 35.3 35.2 37.6 0.6

22.6 6.3 7.1 15.5 22.1 4.5 37.0 36.2 38.6 2.7

24.0 6.0 7.6 16.4 23.4 5.7 38.4 37.5 39.8 3.2

25.4 6.0 8.0 17.4 24.5 4.7 39.8 38.4 40.5 1.6

26.7 5.1 8.4 18.3 25.3 3.4 41.0 38.9 41.5 2.5

28.0 4.8 8.8 19.2 26.0 2.8 42.2 39.3 43.0 3.7

29.2 4.2 9.2 20.0 26.6 2.0 43.4 39.5 44.4 3.3

30.7 5.2 9.7 21.0 27.4 3.3 45.0 40.2 46.2 3.9

32.2 4.9 10.2 22.0 28.2 2.8 46.5 40.8 48.1 4.2

188.3 3.3 10.9 4.2 177.4 3.2 11.2 10.2 35.9 4.0 4.8 28.7 2.4 2.6 -1.9 8.6 2.3 21.0 4.3 37.0 1.8 29.3 5.1 8.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 22.1 0.0

196.9 4.6 11.5 5.7 185.4 4.5 12.1 8.7 37.3 3.8 5.1 29.7 2.5 2.5 -1.9 8.6 -0.5 23.4 11.4 38.0 2.8 31.0 5.8 8.8 4.7 1.4 3.2 22.2 0.6

200.6 1.9 11.6 0.9 189.0 1.9 13.1 7.6 38.4 3.0 5.2 30.6 2.6 2.4 -3.7 8.4 -2.5 23.9 1.9 38.8 2.0 31.5 1.7 9.0 2.5 1.4 4.8 22.1 -0.7

203.9 1.7 11.7 0.8 192.2 1.7 14.3 9.5 39.5 2.8 5.1 31.4 2.9 2.4 -0.6 8.3 -0.7 23.5 -1.7 39.9 2.9 32.4 2.7 9.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 21.3 -3.4

205.7 0.9 11.6 -1.3 194.2 1.0 14.7 3.0 39.9 1.1 5.2 31.2 3.0 2.4 1.1 8.3 -0.4 24.0 2.1 40.2 0.8 32.6 0.7 9.3 1.3 1.5 2.2 21.2 -0.5

208.5 1.3 11.5 -0.6 197.0 1.5 15.2 3.3 39.7 -0.4 5.3 30.7 3.0 2.4 -0.9 8.5 2.9 25.2 5.1 40.7 1.2 32.9 0.8 9.3 -0.2 1.6 10.0 21.4 0.9

210.9 1.2 11.3 -1.4 199.6 1.3 15.9 4.8 39.7 0.0 5.4 30.5 3.0 2.5 1.8 8.6 1.4 26.0 3.1 41.2 1.1 33.3 1.3 9.2 -0.5 1.5 -7.0 21.6 0.9

624.2 2.1 282.4 0.5 5.9 2086.2 1930.9 155.0

638.2 2.3 290.9 3.0 5.1 2715.3 2328.6 387.0

651.0 2.0 297.9 2.4 4.4 3097.5 2876.6 221.0

662.8 1.8 302.6 1.6 3.7 2627.6 2335.9 292.0

672.4 1.5 309.1 2.2 3.3 4503.2 3377.3 1126.0

682.3 1.5 317.1 2.6 3.6 5392.1 4195.5 1197.0

692.6 1.5 323.2 1.9 3.8 5600.0 4388.8 1211.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 177.8 182.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.5 Manufacturing 9.8 10.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.8 6.3 Nonmanufacturing 168.0 171.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.3 Construction & Mining 9.3 10.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.8 8.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 33.7 34.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 2.3 Wholesale Trade 4.6 4.5 Retail Trade 27.0 27.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.2 2.3 Information 2.8 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.1 -5.1 Financial Activities 8.5 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 -0.8 Prof & Business Services 19.4 20.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.7 4.0 Educ & Health Services 35.6 36.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 26.6 27.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.9 Other Services 8.3 8.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.2 Federal Government 1.3 1.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.9 2.0 State & Local Government 22.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.1 -1.7 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

602.0 1.0 279.8 0.1 8.2 1914.2 1653.8 260.0

611.3 1.5 281.0 0.5 6.9 1932.7 1759.3 173.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

27.9 5.4 8.8 19.1

28.1 4.9 8.9 19.2

28.3 3.9 8.9 19.4

28.6 3.6 9 19.6

29 3.9 9.1 19.8

29.4 4.3 9.3 20.1

29.7 5.1 9.4 20.4

30.1 5.4 9.5 20.6

30.5 5.3 9.6 20.9

30.9 5.2 9.7 21.1

31.3 5.1 9.9 21.4

31.7 5 10 21.6

32 5 10.1 21.9

26 3.2

26.1 2.7

26.1 1.8

26.3 1.5

26.5 1.7

26.7 2

26.9 2.9

27.1 3.3

27.3 3.3

27.5 3.3

27.8 3.3

28 3.1

28.1 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.2 39.3

42.4 39.4

42.4 39.2

42.8 39.2

43.2 39.4

43.6 39.6

44 39.8

44.4 40

44.8 40.2

45.2 40.3

45.6 40.5

46 40.6

46.3 40.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.9 4.5

43.2 3.3

43.5 3.6

43.8 2.9

44.2 3

44.7 3.5

45.1 3.7

45.6 4

45.9 3.9

46.4 3.9

46.9 3.9

47.4 4

47.9 4.2

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

204 1.8

205.2 2.4

203.7 1

204.7 1

205.4 0.7

206 0.4

206.7 1.5

207.3 1.3

208.3 1.4

208.9 1.4

209.4 1.3

210 1.3

210.6 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

11.8 1.5

11.9 2.2

11.5 -0.7

11.5 -1.6

11.6 -1.9

11.6 -2.4

11.6 0.6

11.6 0.2

11.5 -0.6

11.5 -0.8

11.4 -1.4

11.4 -1.6

11.3 -1.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

192.2 1.8

193.3 2.4

192.2 1.1

193.2 1.1

193.9 0.8

194.4 0.6

195.1 1.5

195.8 1.4

196.8 1.5

197.4 1.5

198 1.5

198.6 1.4

199.3 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 9.6

14.5 11.8

14.5 8

14.6 4.7

14.7 3.1

14.8 1.6

14.8 2.7

15 2.5

15.1 2.9

15.3 3.7

15.5 4.1

15.7 4.7

15.9 4.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

39.2 2.3

39.9 4.2

39.8 3.4

40 2.7

39.9 1.8

39.9 0

39.8 0

39.8 -0.3

39.7 -0.5

39.7 -0.4

39.7 -0.4

39.7 -0.2

39.8 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.1 31.3 2.8

5.1 31.8 2.9

5.2 31.3 3

5.2 31.3 3

5.2 31.3 3

5.3 31.1 3

5.3 31 3

5.3 30.9 3

5.3 30.8 3

5.3 30.7 3

5.3 30.6 3

5.4 30.6 3

5.4 30.5 3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.4 0.4

2.4 -0.1

2.4 1.3

2.4 2.8

2.5 1.2

2.4 1

2.4 -0.4

2.4 -1.3

2.4 -2.2

2.4 -0.9

2.4 0.6

2.4 1.5

2.4 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 2.8

8.1 -3.7

8.1 -3.7

8.2 -3.7

8.2 -3.5

8.3 2.3

8.4 3.5

8.4 3.4

8.5 3

8.5 2.8

8.6 2.3

8.6 1.8

8.6 1.4

23.5 -2

24 1.5

23.3 -3.5

23.5 1.2

23.8 1.5

24.1 0.8

24.5 4.9

24.8 5.5

25.1 5.5

25.4 5

25.6 4.6

25.8 3.8

25.9 3.2

40 3.3

40 2.7

39.8 2.4

40 0.4

40.2 0.5

40.3 0.8

40.4 1.5

40.5 1.3

40.6 1.1

40.8 1.3

40.9 1.4

41 1.3

41.1 1.2

32.3 2.9

32.5 3.3

32.4 0.8

32.6 1.3

32.6 0.8

32.6 0.1

32.6 0.6

32.6 0.1

32.7 0.6

33 1.2

33.1 1.3

33.1 1.3

33.2 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 1.8

9.2 1

9.2 1.6

9.3 1.5

9.3 1.1

9.3 1.8

9.3 1

9.3 0.3

9.3 -0.2

9.3 -0.5

9.3 -0.5

9.3 -0.6

9.3 -0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 0.4

1.5 2.2

1.5 1.4

1.4 0.9

1.5 1.2

1.5 2.4

1.5 4.2

1.5 8

1.8 25.5

1.6 8.3

1.5 -1.2

1.5 -2.2

1.5 -17.6

21.4 -3.7

21.3 -3.8

21.1 -2.1

21.2 -1.5

21.2 -0.8

21.3 -0.4

21.3 0.8

21.4 0.9

21.4 0.9

21.4 0.8

21.5 0.8

21.5 0.8

21.6 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

661.5 1.9

664 1.7

666.7 1.6

668.9 1.5

671.2 1.5

673.5 1.4

676.1 1.4

678.5 1.4

681.1 1.5

683.6 1.5

686.1 1.5

688.6 1.5

691.2 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

301.7 1.5

301.9 1.3

304.4 1.5

306.1 1.2

308.1 2.1

310.1 2.7

312.1 2.6

314.2 2.7

316.9 2.9

317.9 2.5

319.3 2.3

320.9 2.1

322.5 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

34

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.8

2333 2127 206

2535 2276 259

3218 2597 621

3894 2975 919

4315 3204 1111

4695 3535 1160

5109 3795 1314

5249 4045 1203

5338 4201 1137

5492 4266 1226

5489 4269 1220

5487 4278 1209

5559 4356 1203

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


G aines v ille

PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 146,702 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.8% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,049 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,567

• UF Health Shands System – 12,705

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 6,127 • Alachua County School Board – 3,904 • City of Gainesville – 2,072

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,000 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 960 • Alachua County – 809

• Publix Supermarkets – 780

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.9 percent growth, the third lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $42,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at $53,400. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied areas at 0.7 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 12,694.58 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.0 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 2.9 percent. The fastest growing sectors in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector, with average growth rates of 4.0 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively. This is followed by the Financial sector with an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. The Trade, Transportation, and Utilities and Manufacturing sectors will experience declines, with growth rates of -0.4 percent, -0.1 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Amazon Opens New Delivery Station in Gainesville

• Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce spokesman Todd Van Hoosear announced on November 16th that Amazon’s new delivery station was in operation. This comes after a failed bid from Gainesville to be considered for Amazon’s HQ2.

• The new facility is 10,000 square feet in size, and Amazon expects it to bring around 100 new jobs to the area, both full- and part-time positions. The packages received at this delivery station are mostly delivered by independent contractors who work on a model similar to Uber drivers and can make up to $25 an hour.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


G aines v ille

• In contrast, warehouse workers will be traditional employees of Amazon and start at $15 an hour. Eric Godet, Gainesville Area Chamber of Commerce interim CEO, said that Gainesville is a “valuable asset” to Amazon’s distribution and supply chain.

Source: Gainesville Sun, November 16, 2018

Gainesville Bean-Bag Company Expands Manufacturing in Alachua

• CordaRoy’s, a unique bed-in-a-beanbag concept out of Gainesville, signed a new lease in October for 20,000 square feet of space in Alachua to increase manufacturing and distribution. • The company, founded in 1998, has experienced immense growth since appearing on ABC’s Shark Tank in 2012. They are projected to hit $10 million in sales for 2018.

• This move represents further development of the manufacturing industry in Alachua County, where only 3.2% of the workforce is manufacturing—0.9% less than the state average, and 5.3% less than the country. The lease also has an option to expand the space by 30,000 more square feet, which would bring even more manufacturing jobs to the area.

Source: Gainesville Sun, October 29, 2018

Retail and Dining Options in Gainesville Continue to Expand

• Eastside Pizza Café opened in East Gainesville in September, offering residents a new choice among desolate options on that side of town. They sell hand-tossed and thin-crust pizzas in regular and specialty varieties, as well as hamburgers, salads, fried shrimp, and wings. • On NW 13th Street and on Archer Road at Celebration Pointe, two new Starbucks coffee shops are under construction and will be joined by luxury apartments as well as a Wawa gas station.

• A new hotel has also opened in the Celebration Pointe development—Hotel Indigo. It has 140

36

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

rooms and 92,000 square feet in six stories, continuing the growth of one of Gainesville’s most ambitious new developments. It is joined by restaurants including Midici, Kilwins dessert shop, and Decadent, a coffee and dessert bar.

Source: Gainesville Sun, October 30, 2018

Ground Broken on New Neighborhood Development Project

• Construction has begun on the new Newberry Park development just west of Gainesville. The development is planned to have 300 apartments in six buildings and around 150,000 square feet of commercial and retail space separated into four buildings. • Peter Trematerra, the leader of the project, said that it will take between 12 and 18 months to complete both the apartments and commercial spaces. He also said that he has been in contact with developers from Chick-fil-A, Wawa, Starbucks, and Aldi.

• These compact neighborhoods offer a lot for the economy of Gainesville and Alachua County, enabling retailers to be in the most convenient spaces possible to attract customers.

Source: Gainesville Sun, October 14, 2018

Duke Energy Opens New Natural Gas Plant

• Duke Energy has opened a new combined-cycle natural gas plant near its Crystal River Energy Complex. The plant began construction in March of 2016. • According to Duke, the project will provide around $13 million in economic benefits during its 35-year life.

• The plant has created more than 2,800 temporary jobs for more than 100 companies during the height of construction, amounting to more than $600 million in economic benefits.

Source: Gainesville Sun, November 30, 2018


G aines v ille Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product 13000.0

6.0%

10000.0

4.0%

9000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0

3

(Millions 2009 $)

11000.0

8.0%

150.0

2.5

12000.0

10.0%

2.0%

2

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Gainesville Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


G aines v ille

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

9.8 0.8 5.6 4.2 9.7 -0.7 36.2 36.1 43.0 2.3

10.4 6.7 5.8 4.6 10.2 4.9 38.2 37.4 44.2 2.8

10.9 4.5 6.1 4.8 10.7 4.2 39.3 38.4 44.8 1.5

11.4 4.1 6.3 5.0 11.0 2.9 40.3 38.9 45.4 1.2

11.9 4.5 6.7 5.2 11.3 2.8 41.6 39.5 46.7 3.0

12.5 4.9 7.0 5.4 11.6 2.9 43.2 40.2 48.6 4.0

13.0 4.5 7.4 5.6 11.8 2.2 44.8 40.8 50.2 3.4

13.7 5.3 7.8 5.9 12.2 3.3 46.9 41.9 52.2 3.9

14.4 5.1 8.1 6.2 12.6 3.0 48.9 42.9 54.4 4.3

135.0 2.9 4.5 4.9 130.5 2.8 4.7 8.0 19.4 3.4 2.8 13.8 2.8 1.5 4.6 6.4 2.0 12.9 4.8 24.2 1.9 14.6 5.3 4.5 5.9 4.6 2.5 37.7 0.8

139.3 3.2 4.5 0.9 134.8 3.2 5.3 10.9 20.3 4.7 2.8 14.3 3.2 1.5 -0.6 6.6 3.2 13.7 5.7 24.8 2.6 15.2 4.1 4.5 0.4 4.7 2.0 38.2 1.4

142.1 2.1 4.6 1.4 137.6 2.1 5.5 4.6 20.9 2.9 2.9 14.8 3.2 1.5 -4.3 7.0 6.8 14.2 3.6 25.4 2.4 15.3 0.9 4.4 -1.9 4.7 -0.2 38.6 1.2

144.4 1.6 4.5 -0.4 139.9 1.7 5.7 3.5 21.0 0.4 3.0 14.7 3.3 1.4 -3.1 7.1 0.5 15.2 7.4 26.0 2.2 15.3 -0.3 4.5 2.7 4.5 -3.4 39.1 1.3

146.4 1.4 4.6 2.0 141.7 1.3 6.0 4.6 21.2 0.8 3.1 14.5 3.4 1.4 0.5 7.3 2.5 15.9 4.7 26.4 1.8 15.1 -1.1 4.6 2.2 4.5 -0.4 39.3 0.5

147.9 1.0 4.6 -0.5 143.3 1.1 6.1 3.0 21.0 -0.9 3.2 14.2 3.4 1.4 -1.3 7.4 2.4 16.7 4.8 26.6 0.6 15.2 0.5 4.6 -0.3 4.6 2.5 39.6 0.8

149.0 0.7 4.6 -1.2 144.4 0.8 6.4 4.4 20.9 -0.6 3.2 14.0 3.3 1.4 1.3 7.5 0.9 17.1 2.8 26.7 0.4 15.4 1.1 4.6 -0.7 4.5 -1.8 39.9 0.8

277.4 1.5 136.1 0.0 4.7 1074.6 645.3 429.0

281.8 1.6 139.4 2.5 4.3 1071.0 641.2 430.0

285.2 1.2 142.8 2.4 3.7 1757.1 685.7 1071.0

288.1 1.0 144.5 1.1 3.2 1194.6 606.1 589.0

290.3 0.7 147.4 2.0 2.7 1547.7 701.4 846.0

292.3 0.7 150.8 2.3 2.7 1374.0 792.1 582.0

294.2 0.6 153.6 1.8 2.9 1343.5 830.5 513.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 128.8 131.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.8 Manufacturing 4.4 4.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 -3.5 Nonmanufacturing 124.4 126.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 2.0 Construction & Mining 4.4 4.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 0.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 18.3 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.7 Wholesale Trade 2.7 2.8 Retail Trade 13.2 13.4 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 2.5 2.6 Information 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 0.6 Financial Activities 6.2 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.0 0.9 Prof & Business Services 11.4 12.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 8.3 Educ & Health Services 23.1 23.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 2.8 Leisure & Hospitality 13.8 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 0.3 Other Services 4.1 4.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.4 3.8 Federal Government 4.4 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 1.6 State & Local Government 37.3 37.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 0.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

270.1 0.6 136.1 -0.4 5.8 759.3 548.1 211.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

273.3 1.2 136.1 0.0 5.3 743.2 525.0 218.0


G aines v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.4 5.4 7 5.4

12.5 5 7.1 5.4

12.6 4.8 7.2 5.5

12.8 4.1 7.3 5.5

12.9 4.3 7.3 5.6

13.1 4.5 7.4 5.7

13.3 4.9 7.5 5.7

13.4 5.2 7.6 5.8

13.6 5.4 7.7 5.9

13.8 5.3 7.8 6

13.9 5.2 7.9 6.1

14.1 5.2 8 6.1

14.3 5 8.1 6.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 3.2

11.6 2.9

11.7 2.7

11.7 2

11.8 2.1

11.9 2.2

12 2.7

12.1 3.2

12.2 3.5

12.3 3.3

12.4 3.3

12.5 3.2

12.6 2.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

43 40.1

43.4 40.4

43.7 40.4

44.1 40.5

44.6 40.7

45.1 40.9

45.6 41.2

46.1 41.5

46.6 41.8

47.1 42

47.6 42.3

48.1 42.5

48.7 42.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

48.4 5

48.8 3.4

49.2 3.8

49.6 3.2

50 3.2

50.5 3.5

51 3.6

51.5 3.8

51.9 3.9

52.4 3.9

53 4

53.6 4.1

54.1 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

143.9 1.2

145.1 2.2

145.4 2.1

145.9 1.8

146.2 1.6

146.5 1

146.9 1

147.2 0.9

148.1 1.2

148.1 1

148.2 0.9

148.6 0.9

148.9 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 -2.5

4.6 -0.2

4.6 2.4

4.6 2.8

4.6 3

4.6 1.3

4.6 0.8

4.6 0.4

4.6 -0.4

4.6 -0.6

4.6 -1.2

4.6 -1.4

4.6 -1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

139.4 1.3

140.5 2.3

140.8 2.1

141.2 1.8

141.6 1.6

141.9 1

142.2 1

142.6 0.9

143.4 1.3

143.4 1.1

143.6 1

144 1

144.3 0.6

5.6 1.6

5.8 5.3

5.9 6

5.9 6.2

5.9 6.5

6 3.4

6 2.5

6 2.3

6.1 2.7

6.2 3.4

6.2 3.8

6.3 4.3

6.4 4.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

21 -0.4

21 0.3

21.2 1.8

21.3 1.6

21.2 1.1

21.2 0.9

21.1 -0.5

21.1 -0.8

21 -1

21 -0.9

20.9 -1

20.9 -0.8

20.9 -0.5

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3 14.7 3.2

3 14.7 3.3

3.1 14.5 3.4

3.1 14.5 3.4

3.1 14.5 3.4

3.2 14.4 3.4

3.2 14.4 3.4

3.2 14.3 3.4

3.2 14.2 3.4

3.2 14.1 3.4

3.2 14.1 3.4

3.2 14.1 3.3

3.2 14 3.3

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -4.7

1.4 -4.7

1.4 1.7

1.4 -0.2

1.4 1.5

1.4 1.4

1.4 -0.6

1.4 -1.5

1.4 -2.5

1.4 -1.3

1.4 0.2

1.4 1

1.4 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.1 -0.3

7.1 -0.1

7.1 1.7

7.2 1.5

7.2 2.2

7.3 3.3

7.3 3

7.4 2.9

7.4 2.6

7.5 2.3

7.5 1.8

7.5 1.3

7.5 0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 8.5

15.6 10.1

15.5 7.5

15.6 7.5

15.8 4

16 2.9

16.2 4.5

16.4 5.1

16.6 5.1

16.8 4.7

16.9 4.2

17 3.5

17.1 2.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

25.9 1.7

26.1 2.5

26.3 2.9

26.4 2.3

26.5 2.4

26.5 1.6

26.5 0.8

26.5 0.6

26.6 0.4

26.6 0.6

26.7 0.7

26.7 0.6

26.7 0.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

15.4 0

15.4 0

15.1 -0.5

15.1 -0.6

15.1 -1.9

15.1 -2.1

15.1 0.3

15.1 -0.2

15.1 0.3

15.2 0.9

15.3 1

15.3 1.2

15.3 1.3

4.5 3.6

4.5 3.7

4.6 3.5

4.6 3.4

4.6 2.6

4.6 1.9

4.6 0.9

4.6 0.1

4.6 -0.3

4.6 -0.6

4.6 -0.6

4.6 -0.7

4.6 -0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 -4.5

4.5 -4.4

4.5 -1.9

4.5 -1.1

4.5 -0.1

4.5 0.1

4.5 -0.5

4.4 -1.7

5 10.1

4.6 2.3

4.4 -0.6

4.5 1.6

4.5 -8.7

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

38.9 0.9

39.2 2.2

39.2 0.6

39.2 0

39.3 0.9

39.3 0.3

39.4 0.7

39.5 0.8

39.6 0.8

39.6 0.7

39.7 0.7

39.8 0.7

39.9 0.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

287.9 1.1

288.4 0.9

288.9 0.8

289.4 0.8

290 0.7

290.5 0.7

291.1 0.8

291.6 0.7

292.1 0.7

292.5 0.7

293 0.7

293.5 0.7

294 0.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

144 1.1

144.4 0.9

145.4 1.4

146.1 1.5

147 2

147.8 2.4

148.7 2.2

149.6 2.4

150.8 2.6

151.2 2.3

151.8 2.1

152.5 1.9

153.2 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

644 617 27

1491 578 913

1558 619 939

1638 667 970

1595 684 911

1495 719 775

1464 735 729

1465 764 701

1412 790 622

1308 807 501

1311 807 504

1311 808 503

1332 824 508

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


J ackson v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.6 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $48,300, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.7 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $60,400, the second highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 79,268.14 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.9 percent annually. Unemployment will average 3.1 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 4.8 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent, and then the Financial sector, with an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. The Manufacturing sector will experience a decline of -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 779,798 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.9% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 22,259 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 19,618 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 13,444

• Baptist Health Systems – 10,500

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,700

• Mayo Clinic – 6,000

• Southeastern Grocers – 5,700 • Citi – 4,000

• JP Morgan Chase – 3,900

Source: JAXUSA Partnership

40

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES 1.2 million SQF warehouse coming to Northeast Jacksonville

• Patillo Industrial Real Estate is planning to construct a warehouse for Northpoint Industrial Park that will be at least 400,000 square feet, with the potential for an 800,000-square-foot expansion. The project is likely intended for bigname companies.

• The warehouse will be situated at the northwest corner of New Berlin Road and Port Jacksonville Parkway.

• The building could cost between $16 to $48 million, depending upon the final size of the project. Construction is expected to take 10 to 12 months to complete.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 11, 2018


J ackson v ille

Permit approved for Beach Boulevard Marriottbranded hotel

• Compass Ground Inc. recently received the goahead to construct a six-story, 50,000-squarefoot TownePlace Suites Marriott at 13741 Beach Blvd. • Marriott’s TownePlace Suites brand offers an extended-stay option for travelers, featuring full kitchens, outdoor grills, on-site laundry, a fitness center, and a pool. • The $7 million project is expected to break ground in the next few weeks and will take approximately 13 to 14 months to construct.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 30, 2018 Sawgrass Country Club to embark on $20 million clubhouse expansion • Ponte Vedra’s Sawgrass Country Club intends to construct a 32,000-square-foot clubhouse adjacent to its current clubhouse location—a project valued at $20 million.

• The new facility will be built with more focus upon functionality but will feature all the major amenities found in the current clubhouse, such as a dining room, office spaces, event space, and a pro shop.

• Early in the expansion, UPS spokeswoman Susan Rosenberg stated that the development will enable the distribution facility to increase the number of packages it can process per hour from 60,000 to 80,000.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 9, 2018 JTA launches bus lines, micro-transit options

• The Jacksonville Transportation Authority introduced its third BRT line, which adds an almost 19-mile bus rapid transit line between downtown and the beaches. The Red Line will take the place of Route 9, making JTA the largest BRT system in the Southeast. • Nineteen compressed natural-gas powered, Wi-Fienabled buses will comprise the new line and are expected to arrive every 15 minutes—or every 10 minutes during peak weekday hours. • Half of the Red Line’s nearly $34 million bill was covered by a federal grant on behalf of the Federal Transit Administration.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, December 3, 2018

• According to C.W. Cook, the club’s general manager and COO, construction is set to take place in two phases.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 15, 2018 UPS moving ahead on $196 million Jacksonville expansion plan

• The city of Jacksonville authorized the United States Parcel Service to install conveyors in its regional distribution hub, located at 4420 Imeson Road, as a component of its $196 million expansion. • Almost two years ago, UPS announced that it would be adding 260,000 square feet to its 532,000-square-foot hub. Those plans have since expanded to a 373,000-square-foot addition.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


J ackson v ille Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

85000.0

8.0%

70000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

60000.0

4.0%

55000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

50000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

750.0 700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0

42

1.6

65000.0

6.0%

500.0

1.4

80000.0 75000.0

800.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

2.0%

1

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


J ackson v ille

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

57.9 1.2 30.5 27.5 57.7 -0.3 41.5 41.3 48.9 0.3

61.3 5.8 32.1 29.2 60.0 4.0 43.1 42.2 50.3 2.9

65.2 6.4 33.8 31.4 63.7 6.1 45.0 43.9 51.1 1.7

67.8 4.0 35.4 32.5 65.5 2.8 45.8 44.2 51.8 1.3

71.7 5.7 37.5 34.2 68.1 4.0 47.5 45.1 53.4 3.0

75.9 5.8 40.0 35.9 70.6 3.7 49.4 46.0 55.3 3.6

79.9 5.3 42.1 37.7 72.7 3.0 51.2 46.6 57.0 3.1

84.7 6.0 44.6 40.1 75.7 4.1 53.5 47.8 59.1 3.7

89.5 5.7 47.1 42.4 78.4 3.6 55.7 48.8 61.5 3.9

646.1 3.5 29.0 3.6 617.1 3.5 35.6 9.0 135.1 3.4 25.1 75.8 34.2 9.3 0.8 61.5 1.0 100.7 2.5 97.6 4.4 79.9 5.8 23.1 6.2 17.1 1.6 57.3 0.7

668.8 3.5 29.6 2.1 639.2 3.6 39.5 10.8 137.9 2.1 25.8 77.5 34.6 9.4 1.3 64.2 4.5 102.4 1.7 102.6 5.2 82.5 3.4 25.0 8.6 17.6 2.7 58.0 1.2

690.0 3.2 30.9 4.3 659.1 3.1 43.7 10.7 141.3 2.5 25.5 80.2 35.6 9.3 -1.3 67.3 4.8 105.4 2.9 105.0 2.3 85.4 3.5 25.3 1.0 17.8 1.2 58.6 1.1

709.9 2.9 31.2 1.0 678.7 3.0 46.6 6.7 143.6 1.6 24.7 82.6 36.1 9.3 -0.1 69.8 3.7 109.2 3.6 107.9 2.8 89.2 4.4 26.1 3.0 17.7 -0.7 59.4 1.3

725.6 2.2 31.8 2.0 693.7 2.2 49.0 5.1 143.6 0.0 25.0 82.0 36.1 9.4 1.4 72.7 4.1 113.1 3.6 110.7 2.6 90.5 1.5 26.8 2.7 17.7 0.1 60.3 1.6

740.4 2.0 31.7 -0.4 708.6 2.2 50.9 4.0 143.7 0.1 25.3 81.4 36.1 9.3 -0.9 74.9 3.1 119.8 5.9 112.2 1.4 91.8 1.4 26.9 0.4 18.1 2.4 61.1 1.3

753.0 1.7 31.3 -1.3 721.7 1.8 53.6 5.3 144.0 0.2 25.6 81.4 36.0 9.5 1.8 76.2 1.8 124.5 4.0 113.6 1.2 93.4 1.8 26.9 0.1 17.9 -0.8 61.9 1.3

1449.9 2.0 720.3 0.6 5.4 9618.8 7349.6 2269.0

1479.9 2.1 736.9 2.3 4.6 11228.6 8804.0 2425.0

1509.2 2.0 762.1 3.4 3.9 13189.6 9818.3 3371.0

1536.0 1.8 780.0 2.4 3.3 14182.6 10862.3 3320.0

1559.8 1.5 792.8 1.6 2.8 13609.5 10637.5 2972.0

1582.5 1.5 806.0 1.7 3.0 14373.2 10949.0 3424.0

1605.5 1.5 816.3 1.3 3.2 14815.7 11041.0 3775.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 607.9 624.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.7 Manufacturing 27.8 28.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 0.8 Nonmanufacturing 580.1 596.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.7 Construction & Mining 30.2 32.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.5 8.2 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 127.8 130.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.3 Wholesale Trade 24.7 24.0 Retail Trade 71.6 73.6 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 31.5 33.0 Information 9.2 9.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 0.7 Financial Activities 61.5 60.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 -1.0 Prof & Business Services 94.0 98.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.5 Educ & Health Services 91.2 93.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 2.4 Leisure & Hospitality 71.8 75.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 5.1 Other Services 20.6 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 5.3 Federal Government 17.0 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -1.0 State & Local Government 56.8 56.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1397.6 1.3 709.4 0.8 7.0 7268.8 6164.0 1105.0

1421.6 1.7 716.0 0.9 6.2 7514.8 6237.8 1277.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


J ackson v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

75.5 6.3 39.8 35.7

76.4 5.8 40.3 36.1

77.1 5.2 40.7 36.4

78.1 4.8 41.2 36.8

79.2 4.9 41.8 37.4

80.5 5.3 42.4 38

81.7 6 43 38.6

82.9 6.2 43.7 39.3

84.1 6.1 44.3 39.8

85.3 6 44.8 40.4

86.5 5.9 45.5 41

87.7 5.8 46.1 41.6

88.9 5.7 46.8 42.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.4 4.1

71 3.7

71.2 3.1

71.7 2.7

72.3 2.7

73.1 3

73.8 3.7

74.6 4.1

75.4 4.2

76 4

76.8 4

77.5 3.8

78.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

49.3 45.9

49.6 46.1

49.9 46.1

50.3 46.2

50.9 46.5

51.5 46.8

52.1 47.1

52.7 47.4

53.2 47.7

53.8 48

54.3 48.3

54.9 48.5

55.5 48.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

55.1 4.1

55.5 3.1

55.9 3.6

56.3 2.9

56.7 3

57.3 3.2

57.8 3.4

58.4 3.7

58.8 3.7

59.4 3.7

60 3.7

60.6 3.8

61.2 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

709.2 3.1

713.8 3.4

714.8 2.3

719.6 2.5

723.7 2

727.6 1.9

731.3 2.3

734.7 2.1

739.1 2.1

742.3 2

745.3 1.9

748.3 1.9

751.4 1.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

31.1 0.2

31.2 1.5

31.6 2

31.7 2.6

31.9 2.5

31.9 2

31.9 0.9

31.9 0.5

31.8 -0.3

31.7 -0.6

31.5 -1.2

31.4 -1.4

31.3 -1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

678.1 3.2

682.6 3.5

683.2 2.3

687.9 2.5

691.8 2

695.7 1.9

699.4 2.4

702.9 2.2

707.3 2.2

710.6 2.1

713.8 2.1

716.9 2

720.1 1.8

46.2 7

47 6.1

47.8 5.9

48.4 6.4

48.8 5.8

49.2 4.5

49.6 3.7

50 3.4

50.6 3.6

51.2 4.2

51.8 4.6

52.6 5.1

53.3 5.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

144.5 2.7

143.7 1.9

142.8 -0.7

143.4 0

143.6 -0.6

143.7 0

143.8 0.7

143.8 0.3

143.7 0.1

143.6 0

143.7 -0.1

143.8 0

144.1 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

24.8 83.4 36.4

24.5 83 36.2

24.6 81.8 35.9

24.8 82.1 36.1

24.9 82.1 36.1

25 81.9 36.2

25.1 81.8 36.2

25.2 81.7 36.1

25.3 81.5 36.1

25.4 81.4 36

25.5 81.2 36

25.5 81.3 36

25.6 81.4 36

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

9.2 -1.5

9.2 0.1

9.3 0.9

9.4 0.9

9.5 2.8

9.4 2

9.3 -0.1

9.3 -1

9.3 -2.1

9.3 -1

9.4 0.6

9.4 1.4

9.5 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

69.3 3.2

70.5 4.3

71 4.2

71.6 4.5

72.4 4.4

73 3.5

73.7 3.8

74.2 3.6

74.6 3.2

75.2 2.9

75.6 2.6

75.9 2.2

76.1 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

109.7 4.6

110.8 5.1

109.2 2.6

110.4 3.2

112 2.1

114 2.9

115.8 6.1

117.6 6.5

119 6.3

120.5 5.7

121.9 5.3

122.9 4.6

123.9 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

107.5 2.4

108.1 2.8

109.4 3.8

110 3.1

110.6 2.9

110.9 2.6

111.3 1.7

111.6 1.5

112 1.2

112.5 1.4

112.9 1.5

113.2 1.5

113.5 1.4

89.1 4.6

90.1 6

89.7 2.5

90.3 2.8

90.4 1.4

90.6 0.5

90.8 1.2

91 0.7

91.4 1.1

92.1 1.7

92.5 1.9

92.8 1.9

93.2 2

26 3.4

26.1 3.2

26.4 2.8

26.6 3.4

26.7 2.8

26.8 2.7

26.8 1.8

26.9 1

26.9 0.4

26.9 0.1

26.9 0.1

26.9 0

26.9 0.1

17.7 -1

17.6 -0.7

17.6 -0.6

17.7 -0.4

17.7 0

17.7 0.6

17.7 0.3

17.7 0.1

18.9 6.7

18.1 2.6

17.7 0.1

17.8 1

17.9 -5

59 0.5

59.4 1.1

59.9 2.1

60 1.6

60.2 2

60.4 1.8

60.6 1.2

60.8 1.3

61 1.3

61.2 1.3

61.4 1.2

61.6 1.2

61.8 1.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1533 1.9

1538.9 1.7

1545.1 1.6

1551.1 1.6

1557 1.6

1562.7 1.5

1568.3 1.5

1574 1.5

1579.7 1.5

1585.4 1.4

1591.1 1.5

1596.8 1.5

1602.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

778.4 2.5

780.6 2.1

785.4 2

788 1.6

791.2 1.6

794.4 1.8

797.7 1.6

800.9 1.6

806.1 1.9

807.4 1.6

809.4 1.5

812.1 1.4

814.9 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

3.4

3.2

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.9

3

3.1

3.1

3.2

14224 11230 2994

13546 10778 2768

13975 10768 3207

13778 10618 3160

13596 10592 3004

13446 10671 2774

13619 10669 2950

13938 10803 3135

14288 10941 3347

14571 11042 3529

14696 11010 3686

14709 10946 3763

14755 10994 3761

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


L akeland – W inter H a v en

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland–Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 8,200

The Lakeland–Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.4 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $33,900, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $51,900. Population growth is expected to average 1.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 21,153.31 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 3.5 percent, the third highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.8 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Construction and Mining and Financial sectors, averaging 3.8 and 2.0 percent annual growth respectively, and the Leisure sector, averaging 1.4 percent annual growth. The Other Services sector will experience a decline, with an average annual growth rate of -0.3 percent.

• GEICO – 2,800

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Watson Clinic – 1,600

Company requests $30,000 to relocate to Lakeland, hire 10

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 302,828 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.4% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,284 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 5,500 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • Sykes – 1,150

• GC Services – 1,000 • Amazon – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 900

Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

• An air purification manufacturer is considering expanding its workforce in Lakeland and has been working with the Lakeland Economic Development Council to discuss possible tax breaks. • The company, under the name Project Air Supply, wants incentives from the city, state, and county to spend $1 million on a facility in Lakeland and hire 10 more workers.

• The requested tax breaks are $6,000 from Lakeland and Polk County, with Florida Enterprise agreeing to give $24,000 in breaks if the local government approves.

Source: The Ledger, October 11, 2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


L akeland – W inter H a v en Polk School District says it needs sales tax renewal to build schools for growing population

• Both the Polk County Schools Superintendent and School Board Chairmen want to build two new elementary schools and a high school, while additionally modernizing 19 others. • These plans are dependent on the renewal of a half-cent sales tax which will generate an estimated $242 million over the next five years.

• Polk County estimates that by 2025, it will have more than 140,000 students—about 15,000 more than they have currently.

Source: The Ledger, October 25, 2018

Lakeland adds $1M to airport fund to lure commercial air carrier

• Th e Lakeland City Commission has plans on attracting a commercial air carrier to Lakeland Kinder International Airport.

• They have just set aside $1 million as a part of the minimum reserve guarantee, which is money an airline needs in case it does not make as much as predicted. The airport needs $4 million for its reserve fund.

• Mayor Bill Mutz said that 4,400 people fly out of Polk County from Tampa and Orlando airports daily and he would like to bring in a commercial air carrier to service those people.

Source: The Ledger, November 2, 2018

Terrace Hotel to get $2 million sprucing

• The Terrace Hotel is going to start renovations in late November; this will be its biggest project since opening in February 1999. • The work will start with fixing the damaged exterior that was caused by Hurricane Irma in September 2017. It is expected to take about six months to patch, seal, and give a new coat of paint to the building. • There are also plans to remodel the lobby and guest rooms along with updating the airconditioning units.

Source: The Ledger, November 16, 2018 46

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

Florida nears opening date for autonomous vehicle test track • The $42 million SunTrax test track is set to be completed by spring 2021.

• This 2.25-mile-long site is set on a 475-acre plot midway between Orlando and Tampa. It has different environments for testing autonomous driving in urban, suburban, and pick-up/drop-off areas.

• The track is being made in conjunction with the Florida Department of Transportation, Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise, and Florida Polytechnic University and will be the latest unmanned car testing site designated by the U.S. Department of Transportation.

Source: DC Velocity, December 6, 2018


L akeland – W inter H a v en Lakeland - Winter Haven MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

2.5

22000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

21000.0 19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

15000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 240.0

1.5

20000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Lakeland Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

19.6 0.3 8.3 11.3 19.5 -1.1 31.4 31.3 42.0 1.7

20.7 5.7 8.7 12.0 20.3 3.9 32.5 31.9 42.9 2.1

21.8 5.1 9.2 12.6 21.3 4.8 33.4 32.6 43.8 2.0

22.4 2.8 9.6 12.8 21.6 1.6 33.4 32.3 44.4 1.4

23.5 4.9 10.2 13.3 22.3 3.1 34.1 32.3 45.9 3.3

24.8 5.7 10.8 14.0 23.1 3.6 35.1 32.7 47.6 3.8

26.2 5.8 11.5 14.8 23.9 3.5 36.3 33.1 49.1 3.1

27.7 5.7 12.1 15.7 24.8 3.8 37.7 33.7 50.8 3.6

29.2 5.2 12.7 16.5 25.6 3.1 39.0 34.2 52.7 3.8

208.1 3.3 16.6 1.2 191.5 3.4 12.1 6.8 52.0 5.2 10.1 27.5 14.4 1.6 1.0 12.2 3.7 27.5 1.4 31.1 2.1 22.1 6.4 5.7 1.8 1.1 6.7 26.1 0.2

215.5 3.5 17.1 2.8 198.4 3.6 12.7 4.5 54.6 5.0 10.1 29.3 15.2 1.7 6.2 12.4 1.7 28.6 4.0 31.5 1.4 23.0 4.3 5.8 2.6 1.1 2.3 26.9 2.9

220.3 2.2 17.0 0.0 203.2 2.4 13.2 4.0 56.7 3.7 10.5 30.5 15.6 1.8 5.4 12.2 -1.5 29.6 3.6 32.3 2.4 23.7 2.8 5.8 -0.1 1.1 0.0 26.8 -0.3

226.6 2.9 17.7 3.8 208.9 2.8 14.2 7.7 58.3 2.9 10.7 31.2 16.3 1.8 0.5 12.4 1.9 31.3 5.5 32.3 -0.1 24.5 3.5 5.9 1.5 1.2 7.8 27.0 0.8

232.6 2.7 18.2 2.8 214.4 2.7 14.8 4.0 58.9 1.1 10.9 30.9 16.7 1.8 2.0 12.9 3.5 33.4 6.7 33.1 2.6 25.1 2.3 6.0 1.5 1.2 2.1 27.3 0.9

236.1 1.5 18.1 -0.4 218.0 1.7 15.2 3.1 58.8 -0.1 11.0 30.5 16.7 1.8 -1.2 13.2 2.8 35.2 5.6 33.5 1.1 25.3 0.9 6.0 -0.6 1.3 11.9 27.5 1.0

238.6 1.0 17.9 -1.2 220.7 1.2 15.9 4.3 58.8 0.0 11.0 30.2 16.7 1.8 1.3 13.4 1.2 36.5 3.5 33.8 0.8 25.6 1.3 5.9 -1.0 1.2 -9.3 27.8 0.9

652.0 2.3 280.0 0.5 6.3 3059.0 3024.8 34.0

669.6 2.7 287.0 2.5 5.5 4357.8 3512.2 846.0

689.2 2.9 293.6 2.3 4.6 4607.0 4562.6 44.0

706.4 2.5 299.6 2.0 4.0 4685.9 4677.0 9.0

721.8 2.2 305.9 2.1 3.3 4513.7 4202.6 311.0

735.4 1.9 312.9 2.3 3.4 4931.1 4194.8 736.0

748.1 1.7 318.2 1.7 3.6 5095.3 4292.6 803.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 197.2 201.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.2 Manufacturing 15.9 16.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.7 3.3 Nonmanufacturing 181.3 185.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.9 2.1 Construction & Mining 10.9 11.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.8 4.1 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 48.1 49.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.1 2.8 Wholesale Trade 9.4 9.5 Retail Trade 25.4 26.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 13.3 13.5 Information 1.6 1.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 1.1 Financial Activities 11.6 11.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 1.0 Prof & Business Services 26.0 27.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 4.2 Educ & Health Services 30.1 30.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.3 1.3 Leisure & Hospitality 19.6 20.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 5.8 Other Services 5.3 5.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.2 5.3 Federal Government 1.1 1.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.7 -6.2 State & Local Government 27.1 26.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.6 -3.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

624.8 1.3 278.7 0.6 8.2 1948.1 1914.8 33.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

637.1 2.0 278.5 -0.1 7.2 2505.8 2500.8 5.0


L akeland – W inter H a v en

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

24.6 5.9 10.7 13.9

25 5.9 10.9 14

25.3 5.7 11.1 14.2

25.6 5.4 11.2 14.4

26 5.7 11.4 14.6

26.4 5.9 11.6 14.9

26.8 6.1 11.7 15.1

27.2 6.2 11.9 15.4

27.6 5.8 12 15.6

27.9 5.6 12.1 15.8

28.3 5.4 12.3 16

28.6 5.3 12.4 16.2

29 5.3 12.6 16.4

23 3.7

23.2 3.7

23.4 3.6

23.5 3.2

23.8 3.5

24 3.5

24.3 3.8

24.5 4.1

24.7 3.9

24.9 3.6

25.1 3.6

25.3 3.3

25.5 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35 32.6

35.3 32.8

35.5 32.8

35.8 32.8

36.2 33

36.5 33.2

36.9 33.3

37.2 33.5

37.5 33.7

37.9 33.8

38.2 33.9

38.5 34

38.9 34.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.4 4.5

47.7 3.3

48.1 3.5

48.4 2.8

48.8 2.9

49.3 3.2

49.7 3.4

50.2 3.6

50.6 3.6

51 3.5

51.5 3.5

52 3.6

52.5 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

225.3 2.5

227.7 3.5

229.5 3.3

230.9 3.2

232.2 3.1

233.2 2.4

234.2 2

235 1.8

235.8 1.6

236.5 1.4

237.1 1.3

237.7 1.1

238.3 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

17.6 3.2

17.9 5

18.1 6.2

18.1 5.4

18.2 3.5

18.2 1.6

18.2 0.9

18.2 0.5

18.2 -0.3

18.1 -0.5

18 -1.2

18 -1.4

17.9 -1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

207.7 2.5

209.8 3.4

211.4 3.1

212.8 3

214 3

215 2.5

215.9 2.1

216.8 1.9

217.7 1.7

218.4 1.6

219.1 1.5

219.7 1.3

220.4 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 7.4

14.4 9.8

14.5 6.6

14.6 5.3

14.7 4.8

14.8 3.1

14.9 3

15 2.6

15.2 2.8

15.3 3.3

15.5 3.7

15.6 4.2

15.8 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

58.5 3.4

58.4 2.9

58.5 2.9

58.8 1.9

58.9 0.8

59 0.9

59 0.8

58.9 0.2

58.8 -0.1

58.8 -0.3

58.8 -0.3

58.8 -0.2

58.9 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

10.7 31.6 16.3

10.6 31.4 16.4

10.7 30.9 16.5

10.8 31 16.6

10.8 31 16.7

10.9 30.9 16.7

10.9 30.8 16.8

11 30.7 16.7

11 30.5 16.7

11 30.4 16.7

11 30.3 16.7

11 30.3 16.7

11.1 30.3 16.7

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 0.1

1.8 0.2

1.8 1.9

1.8 3.8

1.9 3.3

1.8 1.4

1.8 -0.3

1.8 -1.3

1.8 -2.4

1.8 -1.3

1.8 0.2

1.8 1

1.8 1.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 2.5

12.5 2.2

12.5 1.9

12.7 3.5

12.8 3.3

12.9 3.5

13 3.8

13.1 3.5

13.2 3

13.3 2.6

13.3 2.1

13.3 1.6

13.3 1.2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.8 4.4

31.9 7.7

32.3 7.5

32.6 8.3

33.1 7.3

33.6 5.5

34.1 5.8

34.6 6.2

35.1 6

35.4 5.4

35.8 4.9

36.1 4.1

36.3 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

32 -1.4

31.9 -1.7

32.7 1

32.9 1.2

33.1 3.5

33.2 4.1

33.3 1.7

33.3 1.3

33.4 1

33.5 1

33.6 1.1

33.7 1

33.7 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

24.2 2.4

24.8 5.5

24.9 3.1

25 3.8

25.1 3.3

25.1 1.2

25.1 1.1

25.2 0.4

25.2 0.7

25.4 1.2

25.5 1.3

25.5 1.3

25.6 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.9 2.3

6 1.4

6 1.7

6 2.3

6 1.7

6 1.2

6 0.9

6 0.1

6 -0.6

6 -1

6 -1

5.9 -1.2

5.9 -1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.2 9.6

1.2 6.3

1.2 5.9

1.2 -0.9

1.2 1.3

1.2 4.4

1.2 3.6

1.3 14.5

1.5 22.7

1.3 9.2

1.3 1.7

1.2 -9

1.2 -16.6

26.8 0.8

27 1.8

27 0.1

27.1 -0.2

27.2 1.4

27.3 1.1

27.4 1.3

27.5 1.3

27.5 1.1

27.6 0.9

27.6 0.8

27.7 0.8

27.8 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

704.5 2.6

708.1 2.3

712.1 2.2

716.2 2.2

720.1 2.2

723.9 2.2

727.2 2.1

730.6 2

733.8 1.9

737.1 1.8

740.3 1.8

743.5 1.8

746.7 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

298.6 2.2

299.1 1.6

301.5 1.9

303.1 1.4

305 2.1

306.8 2.6

308.6 2.4

310.5 2.4

312.7 2.5

313.6 2.2

314.7 2

316.1 1.8

317.5 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.2

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

5648 5648 0

4485 4485 0

4472 4436 35

4506 4367 138

4438 4203 235

4476 4124 352

4635 4116 519

4822 4164 658

4883 4163 720

5020 4233 787

4999 4220 780

4989 4211 777

5063 4269 794

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.2 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $54,200 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.5 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $63,400, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.3 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 356,406.73 million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.7 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 3.4 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector, which will experience 5.2 percent average annual growth, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, which will grow at an average of 3.9 percent annually. The Manufacturing sector will experience a decline of -0.6 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 3,138,415 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 33.2% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 100,701 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Miami-Dade County Public Schools – 33,477 • Miami-Dade County – 25,502 • Federal Government – 19,200 • Florida State Government – 17,100 • University of Miami – 12,818 • Baptist Health South Florida – 11,353 • American Airlines – 11,031 • Jackson Health System – 9,797 • Florida International University – 3,534 Source: The Beacon Council 50

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Broward Health’s new neonatal intensive care unit offers privacy, family comfort

• As the first phase of a $24.1 million renovation and expansion of the Salah Foundation Children’s Hospital’s NICU, Broward Health Medical Center has just opened their $11 million Level III neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). • This new facility includes 30 private rooms designed to accommodate lone children, twins, triplets, and up to 63 beds. The rooms will be furnished with sofa beds, recliners, TVs, bottle warmers, diaper scales, and monitors.

• The next phase of this project will be renovating the hospital’s existing NICU unit with 30 private rooms and room for 36 beds for Level II NICU patients.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, October 2, 2018


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Miami’s answer to the High Line breaks ground this week. This could change the city.

• The first phase of the Underline, a 10-milelong park and walking/cycling trail that will eventually run from downtown Miami to Dadeland under the elevated Metrorail tracks, will begin construction this week.

• This part of the trail will include a dog-friendly park, workout stations, a running track, butterfly gardens, and more. It will expand across seven blocks in the Brickell district—likely the most complicated and expensive section—costing $14.2 million.

• This project, which could cost a total of up to $120 million to build, would connect neighborhoods, promote Metrorail use, and could potentially draw tourists in, as New York’s High Line has.

Source: Miami Herald, October 29, 2018

Miami Beach voters approve convention center hotel and $439 million in bonds

• A fter two failed attempts to get a convention center hotel built, Miami Beach residents finally approved a plan to build a $362 million, 800room hotel on city-owned land. • The hotel will be connected to the convention center via a pedestrian bridge and will include a 53-foot-tall facility for parking, meeting spaces, and ballrooms. The maximum height of the hotel is 185 feet, but the designs are still to be reviewed.

• Residents also approved $439 million in general obligation bonds to finance public safety, infrastructure, and parks projects, which will further change the landscape of Miami Beach.

Scarlet Lady and another that has not yet been named.

• The terminal will be a 100,000-square-foot facility that will cost about $150 million. If approved, construction would begin in 2019 and should be complete by November 2021. • Although bookings begin on February 14, 2019, the Scarlet Lady would begin running from Miami to the Caribbean in 2021, while the second ship would make its debut in the 20212022 season.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, November 28, 2018

New headquarters would bring 250 jobs to Fort Lauderdale

• An unnamed professional services business is considering moving its headquarters to Fort Lauderdale. The move would bring $6.8 million in economic investment to the region, according to a city analysis.

• The City Commission agenda also noted that the company would bring 250 jobs with an average annual wage of $55,990 to the area. • The City Commission is scheduled to discuss a $750,000 economic incentives package—to be paid as tax refunds once the state confirms the company’s job creation—to help persuade the company to move to Fort Lauderdale.

• If the incentives are approved and the company moves to the city, the city would only pay 20 percent, or $150,000, while the state would pay the remaining 80 percent, or $600,000.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, December 3, 2018

Source: Miami Herald, November 6, 2018

Virgin Voyages debuts plans for new cruise ship terminal in Miami

• Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Voyages, has proposed opening a new PortMiami terminal to be the base for two upcoming cruise ships: the Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

0.4

0.6

2900.0 2800.0 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0

52

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Miami Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 380000.0 360000.0 340000.0 320000.0 300000.0 280000.0 260000.0 240000.0 220000.0

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

(Millions 2009 $)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL December 2018 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

262.2 -0.6 120.2 142.0 261.2 -2.1 44.7 44.5 50.9 1.2

285.9 9.0 127.8 158.1 280.0 7.2 48.0 47.0 52.3 2.9

308.1 7.8 136.6 171.5 300.9 7.4 51.0 49.8 54.1 3.4

315.2 2.3 142.2 173.0 304.2 1.1 51.6 49.8 54.7 1.0

330.7 4.9 149.0 181.7 313.9 3.2 53.6 50.9 56.3 3.0

346.7 4.8 156.8 189.9 322.6 2.8 55.6 51.8 58.3 3.5

364.0 5.0 165.1 198.9 331.5 2.7 57.7 52.5 60.0 3.0

384.8 5.7 174.1 210.7 344.0 3.8 60.2 53.8 62.2 3.6

404.8 5.2 183.2 221.6 354.6 3.1 62.6 54.8 64.5 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 2349.4 2428.4 2510.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 3.4 3.4 Manufacturing 77.8 81.4 85.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.0 4.5 4.7 Nonmanufacturing 2271.5 2347.0 2425.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.3 3.3 Construction & Mining 93.5 102.5 113.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.3 9.7 10.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 550.5 567.2 584.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 3.0 3.1 Wholesale Trade 140.7 142.9 145.0 Retail Trade 313.1 324.8 335.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 96.7 99.6 104.2 Information 46.4 47.8 48.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.9 0.7 Financial Activities 164.6 168.8 174.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.6 3.2 Prof & Business Services 371.1 389.9 406.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.0 4.2 Educ & Health Services 346.6 355.9 367.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 2.7 3.3 Leisure & Hospitality 286.5 297.4 308.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 3.8 3.8 Other Services 111.8 117.2 121.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.8 3.5 Federal Government 33.5 32.7 33.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.9 -2.3 1.5 State & Local Government 267.1 267.6 268.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.2 0.1

2586.1 3.0 87.9 3.1 2498.2 3.0 123.4 9.1 593.4 1.5 146.1 338.1 109.3 49.7 3.2 176.2 1.1 423.9 4.4 381.3 3.7 320.3 3.8 123.8 2.1 33.5 1.1 272.6 1.7

2631.0 1.7 89.3 1.6 2541.7 1.7 129.9 5.3 598.9 0.9 147.2 338.2 113.5 51.0 2.7 179.1 1.6 434.7 2.6 391.9 2.8 322.5 0.7 123.3 -0.4 33.7 0.6 276.6 1.4

2675.1 1.7 96.4 7.9 2578.7 1.5 143.5 10.4 605.0 1.0 145.0 336.4 123.1 50.6 -0.7 181.3 1.3 438.6 0.9 396.7 1.2 328.1 1.7 126.0 2.1 34.0 0.7 274.9 -0.6

2736.5 2.3 98.2 1.8 2638.3 2.3 152.0 5.9 613.1 1.3 147.7 333.8 129.2 51.7 2.1 187.6 3.5 450.7 2.8 407.7 2.8 335.7 2.3 129.9 3.1 34.2 0.6 275.8 0.3

2785.8 1.8 97.2 -1.0 2688.7 1.9 158.2 4.1 612.9 0.0 149.2 330.8 129.3 51.2 -1.1 193.1 2.9 476.1 5.6 412.3 1.1 339.8 1.2 129.8 0.0 36.4 6.6 278.8 1.1

2825.2 1.4 95.4 -1.9 2729.8 1.5 167.0 5.6 613.4 0.1 150.1 329.7 129.3 52.0 1.6 196.0 1.5 493.7 3.7 416.0 0.9 345.7 1.7 129.4 -0.3 34.8 -4.5 281.7 1.0

6112.0 1.3 3048.0 1.7 4.9 18985.9 6882.0 12104.0

6168.5 0.9 3134.8 2.8 4.3 17274.3 6723.3 10551.0

6232.5 1.0 3160.3 0.8 3.8 19163.5 7267.5 11896.0

6309.6 1.2 3203.5 1.4 3.2 24447.0 10627.6 13819.0

6390.3 1.3 3267.4 2.0 3.3 28932.9 13618.1 15315.0

6471.1 1.3 3318.1 1.6 3.6 31841.3 15383.9 16457.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5873.0 1.4 2938.8 1.1 7.1 17051.0 6263.9 10787.0

5954.1 1.4 2991.9 1.8 6.3 14424.5 5802.5 8622.0

6036.2 1.4 2996.3 0.1 5.4 20194.0 7151.4 13043.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


M iami – F ort L auderdale – W est P alm B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

344.7 4.9 155.6 189.1

348.4 4.9 157.8 190.7

352.1 4.6 160 192.1

356.2 4.3 161.9 194.3

361.3 4.8 163.9 197.4

366.6 5.2 166.2 200.4

371.9 5.6 168.5 203.4

377.2 5.9 170.7 206.5

382.4 5.8 173.1 209.2

387.3 5.6 175.1 212.2

392.3 5.5 177.4 214.9

397.4 5.4 179.7 217.8

402.4 5.2 182 220.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

321.5 2.8

323.7 2.8

325.3 2.5

326.9 2.2

329.9 2.6

333 2.9

336.2 3.3

339.5 3.8

342.8 3.9

345.4 3.7

348.4 3.6

351 3.4

353.4 3.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

55.4 51.7

55.8 51.9

56.3 52

56.7 52.1

57.4 52.4

58 52.7

58.7 53

59.3 53.4

59.9 53.7

60.5 54

61.1 54.3

61.7 54.5

62.3 54.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

58.1 4.1

58.5 3.1

58.9 3.4

59.3 2.7

59.7 2.8

60.3 3.1

60.8 3.3

61.4 3.6

61.9 3.6

62.4 3.6

63 3.6

63.6 3.6

64.2 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2663.3 1

2683.6 2.3

2701 2.3

2716.9 2.4

2730.4 2.5

2743.2 2.2

2755.3 2

2767.4 1.9

2783.3 1.9

2791.6 1.8

2801 1.7

2810.5 1.6

2820.4 1.3

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

97 8.8

97.7 10.1

97.9 7.7

98.1 5.5

98.3 1.3

98.1 0.4

98.1 0.2

97.9 -0.1

97.4 -0.9

97 -1.2

96.4 -1.8

95.9 -2

95.5 -2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2566.3 0.7

2585.8 2

2603.1 2.1

2618.9 2.3

2632.1 2.6

2645 2.3

2657.2 2.1

2669.5 1.9

2685.9 2

2694.7 1.9

2704.6 1.8

2714.6 1.7

2724.9 1.4

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

142.5 9.9

145.7 13.4

148.2 11.5

150 9.1

151.5 6.3

152.5 4.7

153.8 3.8

155.4 3.6

157.2 3.8

159.1 4.3

161.2 4.8

163.5 5.3

165.9 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

602.2 0.4

606.1 1.5

610.1 1.7

612.4 1.8

612.9 1.8

613.3 1.2

613.6 0.6

613.5 0.2

612.9 0

612.6 -0.1

612.6 -0.2

613 -0.1

613.6 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

143.9 336.7 121.6

144.4 337.2 124.5

145.9 333.8 128.2

146.8 334.7 128.9

147.4 334.3 129.1

148.1 333.5 129.4

148.5 332.8 129.6

148.9 332.3 129.4

149.1 331 129.3

149.3 330.4 129.2

149.6 329.5 129.3

149.8 329.8 129.2

150.1 329.8 129.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

50.3 -2

50.6 -0.1

51.4 1.4

51.7 2.6

52.1 3.7

51.8 2.4

51.2 -0.3

51.1 -1.2

51 -2.3

51.2 -1.1

51.4 0.4

51.7 1.2

51.9 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

180.6 0.7

181.9 1.6

183.6 2.7

185.1 3.3

186.9 3.4

188.5 3.6

190.2 3.6

191.5 3.5

192.5 3

193.7 2.7

194.7 2.4

195.3 2

195.8 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

438.6 0.5

439.1 1.3

436.6 -0.1

440.9 0.1

446.8 1.9

454.2 3.4

461 5.6

467.7 6.1

473.5 6

479.1 5.5

484.2 5

488 4.4

491.5 3.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

391.7 -0.3

398.7 1.8

403.5 2.7

405.5 3.2

407.5 4.1

408.4 2.4

409.3 1.4

410.3 1.2

411.5 1

413.1 1.1

414.3 1.2

415 1.2

415.7 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

325.8 0.3

328.9 2.3

333.2 3.6

335.2 3.3

335.1 2.8

335.8 2.1

336.6 1

337.1 0.6

338.5 1

341.1 1.6

342.5 1.8

343.3 1.8

344.9 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

125.4 1.7

126.3 3.4

128.4 3

129.4 4.6

129.8 3.5

130.1 3

130.1 1.3

130.1 0.6

129.9 0.1

129.7 -0.3

129.6 -0.3

129.6 -0.4

129.5 -0.3

34 0.7

33.9 0.7

34.1 0.7

34.1 0.6

34.2 0.6

34.2 0.7

34.2 0.4

35 2.6

40.5 18.6

35.9 5.1

34.3 0.2

34.6 -1.1

34.8 -14.2

275.3 -0.6

274.6 -0.7

274.2 -0.8

274.6 -0.3

275.4 0

276.2 0.6

277.2 1.1

277.9 1.2

278.5 1.2

279.1 1.1

279.8 1

280.6 1

281.4 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

6223.4 1

6239.9 1

6259.7 1.1

6279.4 1.2

6299.4 1.2

6319.7 1.3

6339.9 1.3

6360.1 1.3

6380.2 1.3

6400.4 1.3

6420.6 1.3

6440.8 1.3

6461 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3162.3 0.7

3157.4 0.5

3165.7 0.8

3179.3 0.7

3195 1

3211.6 1.7

3228 2

3244.7 2.1

3266.9 2.2

3273.6 1.9

3284.4 1.7

3298 1.6

3311.9 1.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

54

4

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.6

16823 7163 9660

18872 6939 11932

22103 7935 14169

23818 9409 14409

24084 10110 13974

24178 11118 13060

25708 11874 13834

27201 12736 14465

28600 13481 15120

29605 13991 15613

30326 14264 16061

30887 14596 16292

31529 15169 16361

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

The Naples–Immokalee–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.4 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $88,600, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $58,600. The average annual wage is expected to grow at 3.7 percent annually. Population growth will average 2.0 percent, the second highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 20,904.04 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.7 percent each year, the highest of the studied areas. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.3 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 5.5 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.3 percent, and the Financial sector with 3.7 percent.

• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 171,687 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.1% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,351 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database.) TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

325-unit apartment plan approved for North Naples • On the corner of Pine Ridge Road in North Naples, developers are planning to construct a 325-unit apartment complex.

• This new operation may become expensive in the long run by increasing property taxes in the Mongolia Square area. • Other individuals who live in the area are worried that this project may have a negative impact on their businesses.

Source: Winknews, October 17, 2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

In the Know: 2 restaurants permanently close in Naples area

• Located in the Naples area, two family-owned businesses have permanently closed.

• Bill’s Steak & Seafood closed in early October, and Café Alfredo closed in late September. • Both restaurants were evicted from their retail centers.

Source: Naples Daily News, October 21, 2018

New restaurants: Naples Coastal Kitchen opens at Gulf Coast Town Center • On November 18th, Naples Coastal Kitchen opened its second location in the Gulf Town Center in San Carlos Park.

• The Naples Coastal Kitchen first launched in December 2017, this new location will incorporate an upscale and casual atmosphere.

• The new location is much larger and seats more than 160 people.

Source: Naples Daily News, November 27, 2018

Movie theater proposed for Coastland Center mall in Naples • Coastland Center mall will have a new dine-in movie theatre, which will replace a Sears store that was recently shut down.

• The construction will include a six-screen, standalone theatre with a bar and a restaurant.

• Along with the new theatre, this project will also include a new entrance plaza and façade.

Source: Naples Daily News, November 29, 2018

56

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

Larger, modern emergency room on tap for NCH Downtown Baker Hospital in Naples

• The NCH Downtown Baker Hospital located in Naples is scheduled for a $35 million upgrade. This expansion will accommodate for the high patient volume.

• The construction is scheduled to start in summer 2019 and may take 20 months to complete. • Dr. Allen Weiss, president and chief executive officer of NCH states, “The project will be done in phases, starting with the new exterior walls, and will require shifting services around because the emergency room will stay open at all times.”

Source: Naples Daily News, December 7, 2018


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland Naples - Immokalee - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

22000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0

1.2

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

12000.0

Naples Payroll Employment 160.0

1

20000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

0.6

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Naples Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 21.0% 18.0% 15.0% 12.0% 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% -3.0% -6.0% -9.0% -12.0% -15.0% -18.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

23.5 -1.2 6.0 17.5 23.4 -2.7 68.9 68.7 48.2 3.5

27.0 15.0 6.4 20.6 26.5 13.1 77.3 75.7 48.9 1.4

29.8 10.5 6.8 23.0 29.1 10.2 83.3 81.3 49.8 1.9

31.4 5.1 7.2 24.2 30.3 3.9 85.6 82.6 50.3 0.9

32.7 4.3 7.5 25.3 31.1 2.6 87.6 83.1 51.5 2.5

34.3 4.7 7.8 26.5 31.9 2.7 90.1 83.9 53.6 4.1

36.2 5.7 8.2 28.0 33.0 3.4 93.6 85.2 55.3 3.1

38.8 7.0 8.8 30.0 34.6 5.0 98.1 87.7 57.3 3.7

41.3 6.5 9.4 31.9 36.2 4.4 102.5 89.8 59.6 4.0

136.1 4.8 3.4 4.3 132.7 4.8 13.6 12.0 26.3 3.7 3.7 20.8 1.7 1.5 2.3 8.0 6.1 15.3 5.9 19.9 5.5 26.5 3.7 8.5 1.6 0.6 2.8 12.6 1.6

142.7 4.8 3.7 9.0 138.9 4.7 14.9 10.1 27.4 4.3 4.0 21.5 1.9 1.6 4.4 8.0 0.5 15.9 4.3 21.0 5.8 27.5 3.8 9.0 5.7 0.7 12.2 12.9 2.4

144.0 0.9 3.8 2.5 140.2 0.9 15.3 2.4 27.5 0.4 4.0 21.6 1.8 1.5 -6.8 8.3 3.1 16.1 1.3 21.4 1.7 27.8 1.3 8.5 -4.7 0.7 1.3 13.0 0.9

144.2 0.1 3.9 1.9 140.2 0.1 16.6 8.6 26.2 -4.6 4.0 20.4 1.8 1.4 -2.3 8.4 1.6 15.9 -1.2 21.6 0.9 28.3 1.6 8.1 -4.8 0.7 0.0 12.9 -0.8

148.0 2.7 4.0 3.0 144.0 2.7 17.5 5.4 26.6 1.5 4.1 20.3 1.9 1.5 1.3 8.8 4.8 16.1 0.9 22.3 3.3 29.2 3.3 8.4 3.7 0.7 0.7 12.9 -0.4

152.1 2.7 4.0 -0.2 148.1 2.8 18.3 4.3 26.9 1.2 4.2 20.3 1.9 1.5 0.2 9.2 4.7 17.2 6.6 22.8 2.3 29.7 1.6 8.5 1.3 0.8 15.8 13.1 2.2

156.2 2.7 4.0 -1.1 152.2 2.8 19.4 6.1 27.3 1.5 4.3 20.5 2.0 1.5 2.7 9.5 3.0 18.0 4.8 23.3 2.1 30.4 2.3 8.6 1.0 0.7 -9.7 13.4 2.2

358.3 2.6 163.7 2.2 5.3 3816.7 3061.5 755.0

366.8 2.4 169.3 3.4 4.7 3805.5 3064.8 741.0

374.0 1.9 172.0 1.6 4.1 3710.0 2921.1 789.0

380.5 1.7 172.5 0.3 3.4 4280.3 3103.3 1177.0

387.1 1.8 174.9 1.4 2.9 4963.4 2790.4 2173.0

394.9 2.0 179.1 2.4 3.2 4956.8 2747.3 2209.0

402.8 2.0 183.0 2.2 3.4 5168.1 2831.4 2337.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 123.3 129.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.9 5.4 Manufacturing 3.0 3.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 13.7 8.0 Nonmanufacturing 120.2 126.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 5.3 Construction & Mining 10.5 12.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 11.7 15.5 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 23.9 25.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.1 5.9 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.7 Retail Trade 19.1 20.1 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.4 1.5 Information 1.5 1.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 -0.6 Financial Activities 7.0 7.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 7.1 Prof & Business Services 13.5 14.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 6.5 Educ & Health Services 18.3 18.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 3.0 Leisure & Hospitality 24.4 25.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 4.4 Other Services 7.9 8.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.7 5.1 Federal Government 0.6 0.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -7.6 0.0 State & Local Government 12.5 12.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.7 -0.5 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

340.7 2.1 155.6 1.9 7.1 2342.3 1730.9 611.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

349.4 2.5 160.1 2.9 6.0 3264.2 2390.8 873.0


N aples – I mmokalee – M arco I sland

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

34.1 4.6 7.7 26.4

34.5 4.8 7.8 26.7

34.8 5.1 7.9 26.9

35.3 4.6 8 27.3

35.9 5.3 8.2 27.8

36.6 6 8.3 28.3

37.2 6.7 8.4 28.8

37.8 7.2 8.6 29.3

38.4 7 8.7 29.7

39.1 6.9 8.8 30.2

39.7 6.8 9 30.7

40.3 6.6 9.1 31.2

41 6.6 9.3 31.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 2.5

32 2.7

32.2 3

32.4 2.5

32.8 3

33.2 3.6

33.6 4.4

34 5.1

34.5 5

34.8 4.9

35.3 4.9

35.6 4.6

36 4.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

89.9 83.8

90.5 84.1

91.1 84.1

91.8 84.3

93 84.9

94.2 85.6

95.4 86.2

96.5 86.9

97.6 87.5

98.7 88

99.8 88.6

100.9 89.1

101.9 89.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.5 5

53.7 3.3

54.2 3.4

54.5 2.5

55 2.8

55.5 3.3

56.1 3.5

56.6 3.8

57 3.7

57.5 3.6

58.1 3.7

58.7 3.7

59.3 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

143.8 -1.8

144.7 0.7

145.5 3.6

146.6 2.8

147.6 2.7

148.5 2.6

149.5 2.7

150.5 2.6

151.6 2.7

152.7 2.8

153.7 2.8

154.6 2.8

155.7 2.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.9 -1

3.9 3.2

4 7.7

4 4.7

4 3.8

4 2.4

4 1.1

4 0.7

4 -0.1

4 -0.4

4 -1

4 -1.1

4 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

139.9 -1.9

140.8 0.7

141.5 3.5

142.6 2.7

143.6 2.6

144.5 2.6

145.4 2.8

146.5 2.7

147.6 2.8

148.6 2.9

149.7 2.9

150.7 2.9

151.7 2.8

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

16.5 6.2

17 13.9

17.1 10.5

17.3 8.7

17.5 6.1

17.6 3.6

17.7 3.5

17.9 3.4

18.1 3.9

18.4 4.7

18.6 5.3

19 5.9

19.2 6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.2 -7.1

26.2 -4.2

26.3 0.3

26.5 1

26.6 1.5

26.6 1.9

26.7 1.5

26.8 1.3

26.9 1.1

27 1.2

27.1 1.2

27.2 1.4

27.3 1.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 20.5 1.8

3.9 20.3 1.9

4 20.2 1.9

4 20.3 1.9

4.1 20.3 1.9

4.1 20.3 1.9

4.1 20.3 1.9

4.2 20.3 1.9

4.2 20.3 1.9

4.2 20.3 1.9

4.3 20.3 1.9

4.3 20.4 2

4.3 20.4 2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.4 -4.6

1.4 -5.6

1.5 0.4

1.5 -2.9

1.5 2.7

1.5 5

1.5 0.8

1.5 0

1.5 -1

1.5 0.1

1.5 1.6

1.5 2.5

1.5 2.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.5

8.5 3.4

8.6 3.8

8.7 4.6

8.9 5.6

9 5.4

9.1 5.3

9.2 4.8

9.3 4.6

9.3 4.1

9.4 3.5

9.5 3.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

16 -1.4

15.6 -6

15.5 -2.9

15.7 -6.2

15.9 -0.3

16.2 4.3

16.5 6.5

16.8 7.1

17 6.9

17.3 6.5

17.5 6.1

17.7 5.4

17.9 4.9

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 -0.8

21.7 1.2

22 4.8

22.1 4.3

22.3 3.5

22.4 3.2

22.5 2.5

22.6 2.3

22.8 2.2

22.9 2.3

23.1 2.5

23.2 2.4

23.3 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

28 -1.8

28.9 4.6

28.9 7.9

29.1 6.9

29.1 4.1

29.2 1.2

29.3 1.3

29.4 0.9

29.6 1.4

29.8 2

30 2.2

30.1 2.4

30.3 2.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 -7.7

8.2 -3.6

8.3 3.5

8.4 5

8.4 3.9

8.5 3.5

8.5 2.5

8.5 1.8

8.5 1.4

8.5 1.1

8.6 1

8.6 0.9

8.6 1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.7 -0.1

0.7 -1.2

0.7 0.7

0.7 -3.3

0.7 -1.6

0.7 2.2

0.7 5.5

0.8 20.3

0.9 27.5

0.8 12.5

0.8 3.7

0.7 -10

0.7 -17.1

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 -0.2

12.9 -1.1

12.7 -1.1

12.8 -1.6

12.8 -2

12.9 0

13 2.1

13 2.3

13.1 2.3

13.2 2.2

13.2 2.1

13.3 2.1

13.4 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

379.8 1.9

381.1 1.6

382.6 1.6

384.3 1.6

386.2 1.7

388 1.8

390 1.9

391.9 2

393.9 2

395.9 2

397.8 2

399.8 2

401.8 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

172.3 -0.9

172.1 0.6

173 2.1

173.6 0.7

174.4 1.2

175.3 1.9

176.3 1.9

177.4 2.2

178.9 2.6

179.6 2.4

180.5 2.4

181.4 2.3

182.4 2

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.7

3.1

3

2.9

2.9

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3792 3399 393

4376 3157 1220

5110 3052 2058

5202 2914 2289

5109 2796 2313

4835 2710 2126

4707 2742 1965

4783 2723 2060

4999 2724 2275

5003 2767 2237

5042 2776 2266

5061 2777 2285

5125 2813 2312

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


O cala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.1 percent annually, the second highest of the studies areas. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $36,700. Relative to the other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $46,900. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.7 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 9,153.38 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.1 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Professional and Business Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent. This is followed by the Construction and Mining and Financial sectors with 4.5 and 2.7 percent average annual growth, respectively. The Manufacturing sector is expected to decline, with a -0.6 percent decrease in growth.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 136,323 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 3.6% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,900 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County Public Schools – 6,650

• Munroe Regional medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,166 • Publix Supermarkets – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,368 • Lockheed Martin – 1,018 • AT&T – 1,000

• City of Ocala – 989

Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Hospital District tightens investment guidelines, approves budget

• To improve investment efficiency for long-term returns, Marion County’s Hospital District has initiated a new policy that calls for funds to be invested in private equity. • Around $5 million of the over $250 million portfolio will be placed into private equity investments that the district expects to offer higher returns and reduce losses.

• Hospital district trustees additionally revised the budget to include $5 million going towards donations for health initiatives.

60

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


O cala

• A $2 million grant will be made to the College of Central Florida’s health science center project. The district made a total commitment of $6 million for the college’s $30 million project.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 1, 2018

Marion unemployment rate sees steep drop in September

• The unemployment rate for Marion County experienced a decline from 4.5% in August to 2.6% in September.

• Marion County’s number of employed is reported to have grown over 2,000 when compared to employed individuals from the same point last year. • Ocala’s 1,200 new jobs in the education sector contributed to its status as the state’s second highest job growth in education and health services for September.

• In addition to the education and health services sector, around 1,000 other jobs have been created from construction, mining, and transportation industries.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 19, 2018

October shows continued strength in Marion County home sales

• Continuing the optimism in the county’s housing market, Marion County reported a 19% increase in home sales compared to October of 2017. • The total combined sales for homes sold amounted to $122.8 million. This is a 35% increase from last year’s total combined sales. The total homes sold totaled to 592 single-family homes, an 18.6% increase from 499 homes sold in the previous year.

Another day, another Dollar Tree

• Marion County announced a $246,000 project to transform a previous Walgreens into a Dollar Tree. This will be the county’s seventh Dollar Tree.

• The project is estimated to take around 5 weeks to complete, coordinating with its target opening date of January 2019. • A popular contractor for Dollar Tree, CAM Construction remarked that the chain has a growing prominence around the state and that further stores will be constructed.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 26, 2018

Another distribution center taking shape in region

• CFI Venture LLC recently purchased $7.1 million of land at the Ocala/Marion County Commerce Park for a future 600,000-square-foot project. The project is estimated to cost nearly $43 million. • Although there is no tenant on hold for the property, the designated name for the project, Project Needles, acknowledges the first racehorse champion of the Kentucky Derby from the county. • Ready to further the triumphs of its commerce parks, Marion County has reserved additional acres for the $5 million Florida Crossroads Commerce project, which is expected to bring in around 3,000 new jobs for the site.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, December 3, 2018

• Additionally, the average sales price experienced similar growth by increasing from $182,504 to $207,469.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 21, 2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


O cala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

9500.0

(Millions 2009 $)

9000.0

7500.0 7000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0

62

2.5

8000.0

110.0

85.0

2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

6500.0

Ocala Payroll Employment 115.0

1.5

8500.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Ocala Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

10.5 -1.3 3.6 6.9 10.4 -2.7 31.2 31.0 38.2 1.3

11.1 5.6 3.7 7.3 10.8 3.8 32.6 31.9 38.7 1.2

11.6 4.6 3.9 7.6 11.3 4.3 33.6 32.9 39.9 3.1

12.2 5.2 4.2 8.0 11.7 4.0 34.8 33.6 41.3 3.6

12.7 4.5 4.2 8.5 12.1 2.7 35.8 33.9 41.4 0.3

13.5 5.9 4.5 8.9 12.5 3.8 37.2 34.6 43.0 3.7

14.2 5.9 4.8 9.5 13.0 3.6 38.8 35.3 44.3 3.1

15.2 6.6 5.0 10.2 13.6 4.7 40.6 36.3 45.9 3.7

16.1 6.2 5.3 10.8 14.1 4.0 42.4 37.2 47.8 4.0

97.5 2.1 7.6 4.8 89.9 1.8 6.5 3.5 22.6 2.2 3.3 16.1 3.2 0.8 -0.2 4.1 -1.3 9.2 -3.3 17.7 5.2 11.9 6.8 3.0 0.5 0.7 -0.1 13.6 -2.5

100.5 3.1 7.8 3.5 92.7 3.1 6.9 7.3 23.1 2.5 3.4 16.2 3.5 0.8 0.1 3.9 -4.9 9.3 1.0 18.4 3.8 12.6 5.9 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.1 13.9 2.7

101.8 1.3 8.2 4.0 93.7 1.1 7.2 3.4 23.7 2.5 3.5 16.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 3.9 0.2 9.0 -2.8 18.5 0.8 12.8 1.7 3.0 -2.7 0.7 0.0 14.1 1.2

104.4 2.5 8.7 7.0 95.6 2.1 7.2 -0.1 23.9 0.7 3.2 16.8 3.9 0.8 0.0 3.8 -1.7 9.3 2.7 19.6 5.8 13.3 4.0 3.0 -1.2 0.7 -0.2 14.2 0.4

106.9 2.5 8.9 1.5 98.1 2.6 7.4 3.7 24.3 1.9 3.2 16.9 4.0 0.8 0.9 3.9 2.9 9.7 4.2 20.1 2.9 13.8 4.1 3.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 14.3 0.7

109.0 1.9 8.8 -1.0 100.2 2.1 7.7 4.0 24.4 0.4 3.2 16.8 4.1 0.8 -1.0 4.1 4.0 10.3 6.2 20.5 2.0 14.0 1.5 3.1 0.8 0.8 12.9 14.5 1.6

110.8 1.7 8.6 -1.7 102.1 2.0 8.1 5.4 24.6 0.7 3.2 16.8 4.1 0.8 1.8 4.2 2.3 10.7 4.1 20.9 1.7 14.3 2.1 3.1 0.5 0.7 -8.5 14.7 1.6

343.5 1.3 130.2 -1.1 6.5 1068.1 1067.5 1.0

349.0 1.6 132.1 1.4 5.8 1412.5 1409.3 3.0

355.4 1.8 133.6 1.1 5.0 2088.7 1937.1 152.0

361.7 1.8 135.6 1.5 4.3 2887.5 2826.6 61.0

367.6 1.6 138.8 2.3 3.8 3213.3 3024.4 189.0

373.7 1.7 142.6 2.8 4.0 3264.0 3074.6 189.0

380.2 1.7 145.8 2.2 4.2 3316.7 3113.0 204.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 92.8 95.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.9 Manufacturing 6.9 7.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 4.4 Nonmanufacturing 85.9 88.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.0 2.8 Construction & Mining 5.8 6.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.3 7.6 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 21.5 22.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.7 2.7 Wholesale Trade 3.4 3.2 Retail Trade 15.1 15.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.0 3.2 Information 0.8 0.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -6.4 -4.9 Financial Activities 4.2 4.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 -2.2 Prof & Business Services 9.1 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.6 4.9 Educ & Health Services 14.4 16.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 17.1 Leisure & Hospitality 10.6 11.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 4.6 Other Services 2.9 3.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.1 5.5 Federal Government 0.7 0.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 0.0 State & Local Government 15.9 13.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.5 -12.6 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

335.8 0.5 130.8 0.3 8.5 597.0 581.7 15.0

339.0 1.0 131.6 0.6 7.3 733.4 695.0 38.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

13.4 6.3 4.5 8.9

13.6 6.1 4.5 9

13.7 5.8 4.6 9.1

13.9 5.4 4.7 9.2

14.1 5.5 4.7 9.4

14.4 6 4.8 9.6

14.6 6.6 4.9 9.7

14.8 6.9 4.9 9.9

15.1 6.6 5 10.1

15.3 6.5 5.1 10.2

15.5 6.4 5.1 10.4

15.8 6.3 5.2 10.6

16 6.3 5.3 10.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 4.1

12.6 4

12.7 3.7

12.7 3.2

12.9 3.3

13 3.6

13.2 4.3

13.4 4.8

13.5 4.7

13.6 4.6

13.8 4.6

13.9 4.3

14.1 4.1

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

37.1 34.6

37.4 34.7

37.7 34.8

38 34.9

38.5 35.2

39 35.4

39.5 35.7

40 36

40.4 36.2

40.9 36.4

41.3 36.7

41.8 36.9

42.2 37.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.8 4.5

43 3.2

43.4 3.3

43.7 2.6

44 2.8

44.5 3.3

44.9 3.5

45.3 3.8

45.7 3.7

46.1 3.7

46.6 3.7

47 3.8

47.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

104.2 2.1

105 3.3

105.5 3.8

106.2 3.4

106.7 2.4

107.2 2

107.7 2.1

108.2 1.9

108.8 1.9

109.2 1.9

109.7 1.8

110.1 1.7

110.6 1.6

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 7.7

8.8 7.6

8.8 5.3

8.8 3.7

8.9 1.7

8.9 0.4

8.9 0.4

8.8 -0.1

8.8 -0.9

8.8 -1.1

8.7 -1.8

8.7 -1.9

8.6 -1.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

95.5 1.6

96.2 3

96.7 3.6

97.3 3.4

97.9 2.5

98.3 2.2

98.8 2.2

99.4 2.1

100 2.2

100.5 2.2

100.9 2.1

101.4 2

101.9 2

7.1 -2

7.2 -0.5

7.2 3.2

7.3 3.2

7.4 4.3

7.4 3.8

7.5 3.5

7.6 3.3

7.7 3.7

7.8 4.4

7.9 4.8

8 5.3

8.1 5.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

23.8 -0.7

24.1 2

24.2 3

24.3 3.3

24.3 2.2

24.4 1.1

24.4 0.9

24.4 0.5

24.4 0.4

24.5 0.4

24.5 0.4

24.6 0.6

24.6 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.2 16.8 3.9

3.1 17.1 3.9

3.1 16.8 4

3.1 16.9 4

3.2 16.9 4

3.2 16.9 4

3.2 16.9 4

3.2 16.9 4

3.2 16.8 4

3.2 16.8 4.1

3.2 16.8 4.1

3.2 16.8 4.1

3.2 16.8 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 0.2

0.8 0

0.8 0.5

0.8 1.4

0.8 1.6

0.8 1.1

0.8 -0.5

0.8 -1.3

0.8 -2.3

0.8 -1

0.8 0.6

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.9

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 -2.4

3.8 -0.8

3.8 -0.3

3.8 0.8

3.9 2.3

3.9 3.7

4 4.8

4 4.6

4.1 4.1

4.1 3.9

4.1 3.4

4.1 2.8

4.2 2.4

9.3 3.6

9.3 4.1

9.3 3.7

9.4 3.2

9.6 3

9.7 4.5

9.9 5.9

10.1 6.5

10.2 6.5

10.3 6.1

10.4 5.6

10.5 4.8

10.6 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.6 6.6

19.6 6.6

19.8 5.9

20 4

20.1 2.6

20.2 2.9

20.3 2.2

20.4 2

20.5 1.8

20.6 2

20.7 2.1

20.8 2

20.9 1.8

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

13.1 2.3

13.5 5.9

13.7 8.2

13.8 7.6

13.8 5.2

13.8 2.3

13.9 1.4

13.9 0.9

14 1.3

14.1 1.9

14.2 2.1

14.2 2.2

14.3 2.3

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

3 -0.9

3 -1

3 -1.4

3 -0.2

3 0.3

3 1.3

3 2.1

3.1 1.3

3.1 0.9

3.1 0.6

3.1 0.5

3.1 0.4

3.1 0.5

0.7 0.2

0.7 0

0.7 -0.2

0.7 -2.5

0.7 -0.8

0.7 1.8

0.7 4.2

0.8 15.5

0.9 23.7

0.8 10.2

0.7 2.6

0.7 -8.2

0.7 -15.7

14.3 0.9

14.2 0.5

14.1 0.3

14.2 0.9

14.2 -0.2

14.3 0.5

14.3 1.6

14.4 1.7

14.5 1.7

14.5 1.6

14.6 1.5

14.6 1.5

14.7 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

361 1.9

362.3 1.7

363.9 1.6

365.3 1.6

366.8 1.6

368.3 1.6

369.9 1.6

371.4 1.7

372.9 1.7

374.5 1.7

376.1 1.7

377.7 1.7

379.3 1.7

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

135.7 1.5

135.4 1.6

136.6 2.4

137.4 2.1

138.3 1.9

139.2 2.8

140.2 2.6

141.2 2.8

142.5 3

143 2.7

143.7 2.5

144.5 2.4

145.4 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

64

4.4

4.1

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4

4

4

4.1

4.2

4.2

2589 2564 25

2990 2949 40

3129 3024 105

3195 3031 164

3198 3009 190

3211 3027 184

3249 3030 218

3235 3048 187

3271 3099 172

3276 3077 199

3274 3074 200

3263 3062 201

3298 3095 203

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee–Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.9 percent each year, the third highest of all studied MSAs. Real per capita income levels should average $41,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent, the lowest of the studied areas. Average annual wage levels should be at $55,900. Population growth is expected to be an average of 2.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 144,320.39 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.4 percent each year, the second highest in Florida. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.0 percent, the third lowest of the studied MSAs. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.3 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 4.6 percent, followed by the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.3 and 2.1 percent average annual growth, respectively.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,357,709 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 2.7% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,841 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Walt Disney World Resort – 74,000 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 21,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 20,413 • Publix – 19,783 • Orlando International Airport – 18,000 • Orlando Health – 16,828 • University of Central Florida – 11,833 • Lockheed Martin – 7,000 • Darden Restaurants – 6,149 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Rosen Hotels & Resorts – 4,526 Source: Orlando Economic Partnership

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Orlando Health to hold hiring event for $32M Osceola freestanding ER

• Orlando Health is looking to fill over 400 positions once its new $32 million, 60,000-square-foot medical pavilion and freestanding ER opens in Osceola County. The first phase of the facility is expected to be completed by the end of December.

• They are hosting an event at the Dr. P. Phillips Hospital on October 31st to interview nurses with ER experience, sonographers, medical technologists, respiratory therapists, and CT techs.

• The first floor of this Phase 1 facility will be designated for the 24-room emergency department, while the second and third floor will house offices. Phase 2 will include another

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

60,000-square-foot medical pavilion, but “will have its timeline determined by the needs of community.”

Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 12, 2018

Lockheed Martin sees gain in every sector for Q3; its Orlando units in hiring frenzy

• In Q3 2018, Lockheed Martin saw $14.3 billion in net sales, up from $12.3 billion from the same quarter last year, and $1.6 billion in operating profit, up from $1.3 billion in Q3 2017. • The increases in net sales occurred across all sectors, largely because they have recently won major million-dollar contracts.

• In an effort to support the increased demand, the firm has posted over 1,000 job openings between the firm’s Orlando, Cape Canaveral, Melbourne, and Titusville locations.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, October 24, 2018

Legoland Florida shares details on new expansion, hotel • During the 2018 International Association of Amusement Parks & Attractions, Legoland Florida revealed its plans to open a new hotel in 2020. • The hotel will consist of 150 rooms and will connect to the existing 152-room Legoland Hotel. Although its theme was not released, it was noted that the hotel will feature many interactive Lego-style activities.

• A new land within the theme park, which will include three new attractions called The Lego Movie Masters of Flights, Unikitty’s Disco Drop, and Battle of Bricksburg, was also announced at this convention using a Lego model.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 14, 2018

66

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

Rocket engine maker, mystery firm to invest $60M into Space Coast, create jobs

• On November 27th, Space Florida approved funding for two projects—one for a Californiabased rocket engine manufacturer called Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings Inc. and another for a company code named Project Maricopa. • These companies promised almost $60 million total in capital investment and 274 high-paying jobs for Space Coast in exchange for up to $19.4 million in funding. • Aerojet Rocketdyne plans to open a launch processing facility in Cape Canaveral, but there are no further details concerning Project Maricopa available.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 29, 2018 Aspen-area luxury resort firm’s move to Winter Park will add jobs, more

• Colorado-based Timber Resorts LLC has announced that it will be moving its corporate headquarters to Winter Park. • The company will be creating over 80 jobs in Winter Park by December 31, 2021.

• Orange County and Winter Park approved an incentive package where each organization will provide $56,000—10 percent of a $560,000 financial incentive—to Timber Resorts through the Florida Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund program. To secure the full incentive, Timber Resorts must create the jobs promised.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, December 5, 2018


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.8

1.4

1.6

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 150000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

140000.0

110000.0

6.0%

100000.0

4.0%

90000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

80000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

12.0% 9.0%

1300.0

6.0%

1200.0

3.0%

1100.0

0.0%

1000.0

-3.0%

900.0

-6.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 OrlandoPayroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

1400.0

800.0

1.2

120000.0

8.0%

1500.0

1

130000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.6

-9.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL December 2018 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

80.8 2.9 48.1 32.7 80.5 1.3 35.4 35.3 44.9 0.9

86.9 7.6 51.4 35.5 85.2 5.8 37.2 36.4 46.2 2.8

94.0 8.1 55.5 38.5 91.8 7.8 39.2 38.3 47.7 3.3

98.3 4.6 58.8 39.5 94.9 3.4 40.0 38.6 48.5 1.6

104.0 5.8 62.6 41.5 98.7 4.0 41.3 39.2 50.0 3.1

110.7 6.4 67.2 43.5 103.0 4.3 43.1 40.1 51.7 3.4

117.0 5.7 71.1 45.9 106.5 3.4 44.6 40.6 53.1 2.8

124.2 6.2 75.2 49.0 111.1 4.3 46.4 41.5 54.9 3.3

131.6 5.9 79.6 52.0 115.2 3.8 48.2 42.2 56.8 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1065.5 1109.0 1157.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 4.1 4.4 Manufacturing 38.2 39.6 41.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.5 3.7 3.5 Nonmanufacturing 1027.3 1069.4 1116.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.4 4.1 4.4 Construction & Mining 51.2 55.9 61.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.8 9.3 9.0 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 204.3 212.8 221.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 4.1 3.8 Wholesale Trade 40.1 41.9 43.4 Retail Trade 132.9 138.6 142.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 31.3 32.3 34.8 Information 23.6 23.9 24.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.2 1.3 0.6 Financial Activities 69.7 70.4 71.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.7 0.9 1.1 Prof & Business Services 175.6 183.5 194.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 4.5 6.2 Educ & Health Services 131.4 135.8 143.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.6 3.3 5.5 Leisure & Hospitality 218.6 231.0 240.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.0 5.7 4.0 Other Services 36.0 38.0 41.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.3 5.6 8.0 Federal Government 12.4 12.6 12.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.6 2.8 State & Local Government 104.6 105.5 107.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.6 1.0 1.7

1208.6 4.4 42.4 3.6 1166.2 4.4 68.3 12.0 227.9 3.1 44.1 146.0 37.8 24.1 0.4 73.3 3.0 207.4 6.4 148.3 3.5 249.5 3.9 44.0 7.3 14.0 8.2 109.3 1.9

1247.4 3.2 44.5 5.0 1202.9 3.1 73.8 8.1 233.5 2.5 44.7 149.5 39.3 24.1 0.1 74.7 2.0 219.6 5.9 151.9 2.5 256.6 2.8 43.8 -0.5 14.6 4.6 110.1 0.7

1295.8 3.9 48.2 8.3 1247.5 3.7 81.6 10.6 237.3 1.6 43.4 151.8 41.8 24.0 -0.4 77.7 4.0 227.9 3.8 158.3 4.2 269.7 5.1 45.9 4.8 14.7 0.1 110.4 0.3

1333.4 2.9 49.7 3.1 1283.7 2.9 88.9 8.9 240.9 1.5 44.6 150.8 43.8 24.4 1.5 80.0 3.0 235.3 3.2 163.5 3.3 276.7 2.6 47.9 4.3 14.6 -0.4 111.4 0.9

1366.0 2.4 49.5 -0.5 1316.5 2.6 93.0 4.6 242.0 0.5 45.4 149.9 44.0 24.3 -0.3 82.6 3.1 250.2 6.3 166.3 1.7 281.2 1.6 48.3 0.8 15.6 6.6 113.0 1.4

1395.7 2.2 48.9 -1.3 1346.9 2.3 98.6 6.0 243.4 0.6 46.1 149.9 44.2 24.9 2.3 84.1 1.9 261.3 4.4 168.6 1.4 287.5 2.2 48.5 0.5 15.1 -3.2 114.9 1.7

2460.0 2.6 1259.6 3.2 4.5 21547.5 14603.0 6944.0

2517.9 2.4 1301.7 3.3 3.8 19275.1 14453.5 4822.0

2571.5 2.1 1344.7 3.3 3.2 25402.1 16362.1 9040.0

2624.6 2.1 1370.9 2.0 2.8 25823.0 17164.7 8658.0

2677.8 2.0 1396.6 1.9 2.9 26150.4 18355.1 7795.0

2731.0 2.0 1417.3 1.5 3.1 26764.1 18816.6 7947.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

2279.8 2.1 1179.7 1.5 7.0 14875.9 9061.1 5815.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

2336.3 2.5 1203.5 2.0 6.0 14417.7 9677.1 4741.0

2398.8 2.7 1220.7 1.4 5.2 19279.3 12042.3 7237.0


O rlando – K issimmee – S anford

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

109.8 6.6 66.5 43.3

111.6 6.8 67.8 43.8

112.8 6.1 68.7 44.2

114.3 5.2 69.6 44.7

116 5.6 70.5 45.5

117.9 5.6 71.6 46.3

119.7 6.1 72.6 47.1

121.5 6.3 73.6 47.9

123.4 6.3 74.7 48.6

125.1 6.2 75.7 49.4

126.9 6 76.8 50.1

128.8 6 77.9 50.9

130.6 5.9 79 51.6

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

102.4 4.4

103.7 4.6

104.3 4

104.9 3.1

105.9 3.4

107.1 3.3

108.2 3.8

109.4 4.2

110.6 4.4

111.6 4.2

112.7 4.2

113.7 4

114.7 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.8 39.9

43.3 40.2

43.6 40.2

43.9 40.3

44.3 40.5

44.8 40.7

45.3 40.9

45.7 41.2

46.2 41.4

46.6 41.6

47.1 41.8

47.5 42

47.9 42.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

51.5 4

51.8 2.9

52.2 3.2

52.5 2.6

52.8 2.6

53.3 2.9

53.8 3.1

54.2 3.3

54.6 3.4

55.1 3.3

55.6 3.3

56.1 3.4

56.6 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1286.7 3.4

1304.9 4.8

1311.6 3.9

1321.6 3.3

1329.5 3.3

1337.5 2.5

1345.2 2.6

1353.1 2.4

1362.9 2.5

1370.3 2.5

1377.6 2.4

1384.7 2.3

1392 2.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

47.6 8

48.9 9.9

49.5 7.6

49.6 5.4

49.8 4.6

49.8 1.8

49.8 0.7

49.8 0.4

49.6 -0.4

49.4 -0.7

49.2 -1.3

49.1 -1.5

48.9 -1.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1239.1 3.3

1256 4.7

1262.1 3.7

1272 3.2

1279.7 3.3

1287.7 2.5

1295.3 2.6

1303.3 2.5

1313.3 2.6

1320.9 2.6

1328.4 2.6

1335.6 2.5

1343.1 2.3

79.1 7.6

83.4 12.8

86.4 14.4

87.6 12.7

88.5 11.9

89.3 7.1

90.2 4.4

91.2 4.1

92.4 4.3

93.6 4.8

94.9 5.3

96.4 5.7

97.8 5.9

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

235.9 1

238 2

239 2

240.3 1.7

240.7 2

241.2 1.3

241.5 1.1

241.8 0.7

241.8 0.5

242.1 0.4

242.3 0.3

242.8 0.4

243.4 0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

42.8 152 41.1

42.7 153 42.3

43.8 150.2 43.3

44.2 150.9 43.6

44.5 150.9 43.7

44.8 150.7 43.9

45 150.5 44

45.2 150.4 44

45.3 149.9 44

45.5 149.8 44

45.7 149.5 44.1

45.8 149.8 44.1

46 149.9 44.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24 -0.8

24 0.1

24.1 -0.1

24.3 1

24.6 2.6

24.5 1.8

24.3 0.7

24.2 -0.3

24.2 -1.5

24.4 -0.4

24.5 1.1

24.7 1.9

24.8 2.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

77.5 4.2

77.7 3.9

78.2 2.8

78.9 2

79.7 2.9

80.4 3.6

81.1 3.7

81.8 3.6

82.3 3.2

82.8 3

83.3 2.7

83.7 2.3

83.9 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

228 4.2

230.2 6.2

227.2 1

229.7 1.5

233 2.2

237.3 3.1

241.2 6.2

245.1 6.7

248.6 6.7

252 6.2

255.1 5.8

257.5 5.1

259.8 4.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

157.6 4.1

159.2 4.8

161.1 5.1

162.2 4.5

163.3 3.7

164 3

164.6 2.1

165.2 1.8

165.8 1.5

166.7 1.7

167.4 1.7

167.9 1.7

168.4 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

267.2 4.3

271.9 5.8

274 5.8

276 3.9

276.1 3.3

276.9 1.8

277.8 1.4

278.5 0.9

280 1.4

282.4 2

284 2.2

285.1 2.4

286.7 2.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.9 3

46.9 7.1

47.1 6.7

47.6 6

47.9 6.5

48 2.5

48.1 2.2

48.2 1.4

48.3 0.9

48.3 0.5

48.4 0.5

48.4 0.4

48.5 0.5

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

14.7 1.1

14.6 -0.1

14.5 -2.6

14.5 -1.7

14.6 -1.1

14.6 0.1

14.7 1.1

14.9 2.8

17.1 17.3

15.4 5.4

14.8 0.8

14.9 -0.1

15 -12.2

110.2 0.4

110.1 -0.1

110.6 0.2

110.9 0.2

111.2 0.9

111.6 1.4

112 1.2

112.4 1.3

112.8 1.4

113.2 1.5

113.7 1.5

114.2 1.6

114.7 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2565.2 2.2

2577.4 2

2590.9 2

2604.6 2

2618.1 2.1

2631.4 2.1

2644.5 2.1

2657.9 2

2671.2 2

2684.4 2

2697.7 2

2711 2

2724.3 2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1337.6 3

1347.4 3.5

1356.2 3.1

1361.4 1.8

1367.7 2.3

1374.1 2

1380.4 1.8

1386.9 1.9

1396.5 2.1

1399.3 1.8

1403.7 1.7

1409.1 1.6

1414.8 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.3

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3

3.1

3.1

28307 18159 10148

25468 16120 9349

27094 16496 10598

26707 16748 9959

26015 16984 9030

25239 17373 7866

25331 17554 7778

25667 17941 7726

26085 18309 7775

26382 18576 7806

26467 18593 7874

26456 18558 7898

26619 18716 7902

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itus v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.5 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $43,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $59,200. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.4 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 22,977.70 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.7 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.3 percent. Professional and Business Services is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.5 percent growth annually. The Construction and Mining sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 4.3 percent, followed by the Financial and Education-Health Services sectors at 2.4 and 1.8 percent average annual growth, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 274,901 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 3.0% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,199 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055

Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

70

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Embraer to assemble two new classes of business jets in Melbourne

• Embraer, a Brazilian aircraft company, is beginning to assemble two new lines of business jets, the Praetor 500 and Praetor 600, at the Orlando Melbourne International Airport. • The aircraft was introduced at the Orlando Executive Airport a day before the National Business Aviation Association Convention.

• The Praetors will be constructed in Embraer’s existing platforms in the area. It is currently unclear if this project will add any new jobs to the area.

Source: Florida Today, October 14, 2018


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Port Canaveral has record year in revenue, cruise, cargo business

• Port Canaveral has announced that it has surpassed the $100 million revenue mark for the first time ever, with a total of $103.76 million in revenue for the budget year.

• This year’s revenue is up 5.9 percent from $98.01 million the previous budget year. It also passed the $10 million mark in cargo revenue for the first time ever. • Profits tripled from the previous budget year’s $2.81 million, to $9.06 million this budget year.

Source: Florida Today, October 31, 2018

Downtown Palm Bay? Developer building aqua housing-retail complex on R.J. Conlan Blvd.

• Developers are targeting Robert J. Conlan Boulevard as a new downtown district for Palm Bay, which lacks a historic downtown district.

• A groundbreaking ceremony recently occurred this month for the Aqua housing-retail complex. The land clearing for the project started in July. The project includes 320 apartments and five commercial buildings. • The 24-acre site was purchased in 2016 for $1.1 million by Franz Hanning, CEO of Northshore Development, and will be the beginning of the new downtown district.

policies discourage businesses from competing for business due to the reality and perception of an unbalanced selection process. Basic principles of equality demand that all those seeking to do business with Brevard County are treated fairly.”

Source: Florida Today, November 30, 2018

$18 million sand project to restore 3.5 miles of beach, from Jetty Park to Cocoa Beach Pier

• This week marks the beginning of the largest re-nourishment project in Port Canaveral since 1995. The $18 million project will restore 3.5 miles of beaches.

• The project is going to pump sand from the shoreline north of Port Canaveral to the beaches south of the Canaveral Inlet. • The project will cause temporary restrictions to public access of parts of the beach, within 1,000 feet of the daily construction.

• The restoration is being funded by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, as well as the Canaveral Port Authority, and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

Source: Florida Today, December 6, 2018

Source: Florida Today, November 29, 2018

County Commission changes rules on contracts so local companies no longer get preference • Brevard County commissioners have agreed to end the practice of giving local companies a preference in the awarding of county contracts.

• Under the previous policy, for contracts valued at less than $1 million, Brevard companies were awarded extra points in the scoring systems to decide which company got awarded the contracts. • Commissioner John Tobia, who proposed the policy repeal, has stated that, “local preference

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itus v ille Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

1

1.5

(percent)

24000.0

10.0%

22000.0

8.0%

20000.0

6.0%

18000.0

4.0% 2.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

14000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 12.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

220.0

3.0%

210.0

0.0%

200.0

72

(Millions 2009 $)

9.0%

230.0

190.0

3

16000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 240.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

2

-3.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

-6.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

20.9 0.2 9.4 11.5 20.8 -1.3 37.8 37.7 48.0 1.0

21.9 4.8 9.5 12.3 21.4 3.0 39.2 38.4 47.8 -0.5

23.3 6.4 10.2 13.1 22.7 6.1 40.9 40.0 49.6 3.9

24.3 4.5 10.6 13.7 23.5 3.3 41.9 40.5 50.0 0.6

25.7 5.6 11.3 14.4 24.4 3.9 43.4 41.2 52.0 4.1

27.0 5.1 11.9 15.1 25.1 3.1 44.9 41.8 54.0 3.8

28.4 5.2 12.6 15.8 25.9 3.0 46.5 42.4 55.8 3.4

30.1 5.9 13.3 16.8 26.9 3.9 48.6 43.4 58.0 3.9

31.7 5.5 14.0 17.7 27.8 3.3 50.6 44.3 60.3 4.0

201.7 2.4 21.0 4.5 180.7 2.2 11.1 12.4 36.1 1.2 5.1 27.6 3.4 2.3 -4.0 7.2 -0.8 28.9 1.7 33.8 2.0 25.5 6.3 7.9 0.0 6.2 1.3 21.6 -1.8

209.1 3.7 22.3 6.6 186.8 3.4 12.5 12.1 36.6 1.4 5.0 28.1 3.5 2.4 4.1 7.6 5.8 29.8 3.0 35.3 4.3 26.4 3.6 8.5 7.1 6.3 1.2 21.5 -0.7

214.0 2.3 23.7 6.3 190.2 1.8 13.3 6.8 36.5 -0.2 4.8 28.1 3.6 2.6 10.5 8.0 4.4 31.0 3.9 35.5 0.5 26.7 1.2 8.6 1.6 6.3 0.8 21.7 1.0

217.9 1.9 24.6 3.4 193.4 1.7 14.3 7.5 37.4 2.2 4.6 28.8 3.9 2.6 -0.1 8.3 3.6 30.6 -1.3 36.5 3.0 26.8 0.5 8.8 1.7 6.3 0.1 21.8 0.6

223.1 2.4 24.8 0.8 198.3 2.5 14.8 3.2 37.8 1.2 4.8 28.6 4.0 2.6 1.4 8.5 3.5 32.3 5.7 37.8 3.4 27.3 1.6 8.9 1.4 6.3 -0.4 22.0 0.8

226.8 1.7 24.7 -0.4 202.1 1.9 15.3 3.7 37.7 -0.2 4.9 28.2 4.0 2.6 -0.6 8.8 3.3 34.0 5.5 38.3 1.4 27.5 1.0 8.9 -0.2 6.5 3.6 22.3 1.2

229.8 1.3 24.4 -1.2 205.4 1.7 16.1 5.2 37.8 0.3 4.9 28.0 4.1 2.7 1.9 9.0 1.8 35.2 3.5 38.8 1.3 28.0 1.6 8.9 -0.4 6.4 -1.9 22.5 1.2

568.2 1.9 256.5 -0.5 6.0 1883.2 1635.3 248.0

579.3 1.9 262.7 2.4 5.1 2302.3 2105.3 197.0

590.8 2.0 268.7 2.3 4.2 2945.4 2306.8 639.0

601.3 1.8 271.1 0.9 3.5 2596.4 2230.2 366.0

610.6 1.5 275.9 1.8 3.1 3208.4 2873.7 335.0

619.4 1.4 281.9 2.2 3.2 4501.6 3722.9 779.0

627.4 1.3 286.7 1.7 3.4 4830.2 3967.6 863.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 193.0 196.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 2.0 Manufacturing 20.1 20.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 -0.3 Nonmanufacturing 172.9 176.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 2.3 Construction & Mining 9.1 9.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 8.8 8.3 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 34.9 35.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.0 2.0 Wholesale Trade 5.5 5.5 Retail Trade 25.6 26.7 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 3.9 3.5 Information 2.1 2.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -5.9 11.0 Financial Activities 7.5 7.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.2 -2.6 Prof & Business Services 27.4 28.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.7 3.7 Educ & Health Services 32.8 33.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.1 1.0 Leisure & Hospitality 23.0 24.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 4.4 Other Services 7.5 7.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 6.3 Federal Government 6.2 6.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -1.3 State & Local Government 22.3 22.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 -1.2 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

551.6 0.7 258.7 -1.5 8.3 1350.9 1335.4 16.0

557.9 1.1 257.9 -0.3 7.0 1267.4 1228.2 39.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itus v ille

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

26.8 5.2 11.8 15

27.2 5.4 12 15.1

27.5 5.4 12.2 15.3

27.8 5 12.4 15.4

28.2 5.1 12.5 15.7

28.6 5.2 12.7 15.9

29 5.7 12.9 16.2

29.5 6 13 16.4

29.9 6 13.2 16.6

30.3 5.8 13.4 16.9

30.7 5.7 13.6 17.1

31.1 5.6 13.7 17.4

31.5 5.5 13.9 17.6

25 3.1

25.3 3.3

25.4 3.3

25.5 2.8

25.7 2.9

26 2.9

26.2 3.4

26.5 3.9

26.8 4.1

27 3.9

27.3 3.9

27.5 3.6

27.7 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

44.7 41.7

45.1 41.9

45.4 42

45.8 42

46.3 42.2

46.8 42.5

47.3 42.7

47.8 43

48.3 43.3

48.8 43.5

49.3 43.8

49.8 44

50.3 44.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

53.8 4.4

54.2 3.4

54.6 3.6

55 3

55.5 3.2

56.1 3.5

56.6 3.7

57.2 3.9

57.7 3.9

58.2 3.8

58.8 3.8

59.4 3.8

60 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

217 1

219.6 2.8

220.6 3.5

221.8 3.4

222.7 2.6

223.5 1.8

224.4 1.7

225.2 1.6

226.8 1.8

227.2 1.7

227.8 1.5

228.6 1.5

229.4 1.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 4.2

24.4 2.4

24.6 2.1

24.7 0.6

24.8 0.5

24.8 1.3

24.8 0.9

24.8 0.4

24.7 -0.3

24.6 -0.5

24.5 -1.1

24.4 -1.4

24.4 -1.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

192.4 0.6

195.1 2.8

196 3.7

197.1 3.7

197.9 2.9

198.7 1.8

199.6 1.8

200.5 1.7

202.1 2.1

202.6 2

203.3 1.9

204.2 1.8

205 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

14.3 6.7

14.6 11.9

14.5 7

14.7 5.2

14.8 3.2

14.8 1.7

14.9 2.9

15.1 2.8

15.2 3.3

15.4 4.1

15.6 4.5

15.8 5.1

16 5.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

37.2 1.1

37.7 3.7

37.7 3.9

37.8 2.7

37.8 1.8

37.8 0.2

37.8 0.1

37.8 -0.2

37.7 -0.3

37.7 -0.2

37.7 -0.2

37.8 0

37.8 0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 28.8 3.8

4.6 29.1 4

4.7 28.7 4

4.7 28.7 4

4.8 28.6 4

4.8 28.5 4

4.8 28.4 4.1

4.8 28.4 4

4.9 28.2 4

4.9 28.1 4

4.9 28 4.1

4.9 28.1 4.1

4.9 28.1 4.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 0

2.6 -1.2

2.6 0.7

2.6 1.4

2.7 3.1

2.6 1.1

2.6 0.2

2.6 -0.7

2.6 -1.7

2.6 -0.6

2.6 0.8

2.7 1.6

2.7 2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 3.4

8.3 3.9

8.3 2.6

8.4 3.1

8.5 3.8

8.6 3.2

8.7 3.9

8.7 3.8

8.8 3.5

8.9 3.2

8.9 2.7

8.9 2.2

9 1.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

29.9 -4.5

30.8 -1.5

31.4 2.9

31.6 4.8

32 7

32.5 5.7

33 5.2

33.5 5.8

33.9 5.8

34.3 5.4

34.6 4.9

34.8 4.2

35.1 3.5

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

36.7 3

37.2 5.8

37.4 8

37.6 7.5

37.8 3

37.9 1.9

38 1.6

38.1 1.4

38.2 1.3

38.4 1.5

38.6 1.6

38.7 1.5

38.8 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

26.7 -0.8

26.9 0.9

27.1 2.4

27.3 2.5

27.2 2

27.2 1.3

27.3 0.7

27.3 0.3

27.4 0.8

27.6 1.4

27.8 1.7

27.8 1.7

27.9 1.8

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.8 1.9

8.8 2

8.8 1.7

8.9 2.2

8.9 1.4

8.9 0.8

8.9 1

8.9 0.3

8.9 -0.1

8.9 -0.4

8.9 -0.4

8.9 -0.6

8.9 -0.4

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 0.5

6.3 0.6

6.3 -0.6

6.3 -0.2

6.3 -0.9

6.3 -0.5

6.3 0.1

6.3 -0.3

7 11.4

6.5 3.2

6.3 0

6.4 1.2

6.4 -9

21.7 0

21.9 0.7

21.9 0.2

21.9 0.5

22 1.2

22 0.6

22.1 1

22.2 1.2

22.2 1.2

22.3 1.2

22.4 1.1

22.4 1.1

22.5 1.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

600.1 1.9

602.4 1.7

604.8 1.6

607.1 1.5

609.5 1.6

611.8 1.6

614 1.5

616.2 1.5

618.3 1.5

620.5 1.4

622.5 1.4

624.5 1.3

626.4 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

270.9 0.8

270.8 0.8

272.6 1.8

273.8 1.5

275.2 1.6

276.6 2.1

278.1 2

279.7 2.2

281.8 2.4

282.5 2.1

283.5 1.9

284.8 1.8

286.1 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.1

3

3

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

2166 2142 23

2719 1969 749

2333 2224 109

2805 2545 260

3041 2726 316

3332 3009 323

3655 3215 440

4095 3468 627

4538 3729 809

4681 3845 836

4692 3849 843

4703 3859 844

4788 3936 852

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $41,800. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.6 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $52,400. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 17,212.06 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.0 percent each year, the second lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 3.1 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 3.9 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.2 percent. The Manufacturing; Trade, Transportation, and Utilities; Other Services; and Federal Government sectors will all decline, at rates of -0.7 percent, -0.7 percent, -0.5 percent and -0.1 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 228,186 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.9% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,596 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

• Federal Government – 7,162 • State Government – 5,253

• Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200

Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforce Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES After unsuccessful 2018 season, beach ferry operator and National Park Service end agreement

• The current operator of Pensacola’s new passenger ferry service is pulling out, after less than six months in business. • The National Park Service is searching for a new operator, in hopes to have the ferry service running again in 2019.

• The boats were funded by the National Park Service with $4 million and an additional $1.2 million in federal grants. There is also currently a $3.5 million downtown dock and ferry terminal being built at Commendencia Slip. • The problems with the ferry stemmed from low ridership, high ticket prices, the late 2018 start date, and the high costs of the ferry operation.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 30, 2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

$320K goes into community via Rat Pack Reunion, Stepping Out in Style fundraisers | Causes

• The eighth annual Rat Pack Reunion fundraiser, hosted by the Council on Aging of West Florida, has raised approximately $196,000. The event is held to raise awareness and support for senior programs. • The Stepping Out in Style Fashion Show, hosted by the Women’s Board of Baptist Health Care Foundation and Gulf Coast Health Care, raised $125,000 for The Meridian at Lakeview Center. The Meridian provides services, such as mental health treatment, for children aged 7-17. • Additionally, International Paper’s Pensacola Mill awarded $85,000 in grants through the International Paper Foundation to local community organizers. The grants are focused on programs for hunger, education, health and wellness, and disaster relief.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, October 31, 2018

Floating homes planned for Seville Harbor Marina in $5 million investment.

• The Pensacola City Council has voted to begin the process of selling the Fish House restaurant to the current leaseholder, Ray Russenberger. He is planning to make more than a $5 million investment to the property in hopes of rebuilding the Seville Harbor Marina, which was destroyed by Hurricane Ivan. • Part of the plan is to rebuild the marina including the addition 47 floating homes. The homes will be leased on a monthly basis and will be connected to water and sewer. • The homes have already been approved, but the city still needs to agree to sell the property and approve development before work on the marina can begin.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 9, 2018

76

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

Railroad giant CSX announces deal to sell rail line between Pensacola and Jacksonville • Railroad company CSX plans to sell 373 miles of track between Pensacola and Jacksonville to Florida Gulf and Atlantic Railroad, a subsidy of Rail USA.

• The price of the deal has not yet been announced, but Rail US plans to hire 37 Tallahassee-based employees. • The deal does not include the portion of the rail line that services the Port of Pensacola. CSX will continue to service the port and transfer cargo to Rail USA’s portion of the track.

• The change in track ownership does not currently appear to be causing a return of passenger rail service to the area.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 15, 2018

Pensacola’s Virginia College loses accreditation, will shut down after current term

• The Virginia College campus in Pensacola, as well as all other campuses for the college, will close at the end of this term. Virginia College is one of many schools run by Education Corporation of America.

• The Accrediting Council for Independent College and Schools has cut off Virginia Campus’ accreditation. In a letter to the students, Stu Reed, President of ECA, claimed that the loss of the accreditation has led to the “inability to acquire additional capital to operate our schools.” • The ECA, which has more than 75 campuses and enrolls at least 20,000 students, is nearly $50 million in debt to unsecured creditors and will be closing all campuses.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 6, 2018


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0

6.0%

15000.0

4.0%

14000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

13000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

(Millions 2009 $)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

180.0

4.0% 2.0%

170.0

0.0% -2.0%

160.0 150.0

1.2

16000.0

8.0%

190.0

1

17000.0

10.0%

2.0%

0.8

-4.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-6.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

17.1 0.1 7.4 9.8 17.1 -1.4 36.6 36.5 42.1 0.0

18.0 4.9 7.6 10.3 17.6 3.1 38.1 37.3 43.2 2.7

18.9 5.2 8.0 10.8 18.4 4.9 39.6 38.7 44.6 3.2

19.5 3.3 8.4 11.1 18.8 2.1 40.4 39.0 45.3 1.5

20.3 3.9 8.7 11.6 19.2 2.2 41.5 39.4 46.2 2.1

21.2 4.6 9.2 12.0 19.7 2.6 42.9 40.0 48.0 3.9

22.2 4.5 9.6 12.5 20.2 2.2 44.5 40.5 49.5 3.0

23.3 5.1 10.1 13.2 20.8 3.1 46.4 41.5 51.3 3.6

24.4 4.7 10.5 13.8 21.3 2.6 48.2 42.2 53.3 3.8

167.2 2.6 6.1 1.1 161.1 2.7 10.0 4.5 31.7 2.1 5.1 22.5 4.0 2.2 -3.3 11.7 8.7 22.4 3.4 27.7 3.3 21.6 2.9 5.8 -3.5 6.5 0.5 21.6 0.7

172.8 3.4 6.3 3.0 166.5 3.4 10.8 8.5 32.5 2.4 5.5 23.0 4.0 2.0 -7.2 12.3 5.4 22.5 0.4 29.3 5.8 22.9 6.1 6.0 3.2 6.6 1.5 21.6 0.3

177.3 2.6 6.2 -1.5 171.1 2.7 11.5 6.6 33.1 2.1 5.8 23.3 4.1 2.0 -2.5 12.9 5.2 22.7 0.7 30.0 2.6 24.3 6.0 6.2 3.4 6.6 -0.5 21.7 0.4

180.5 1.8 6.2 -0.3 174.3 1.9 12.5 8.2 32.7 -1.2 5.8 22.7 4.2 2.0 0.3 13.7 6.2 22.5 -0.5 30.8 2.6 25.4 4.7 6.2 0.0 6.6 0.4 21.7 0.2

183.5 1.7 6.3 2.1 177.3 1.7 13.0 3.9 32.7 -0.2 5.9 22.3 4.3 2.0 0.4 14.2 3.2 23.3 3.2 31.4 2.0 25.9 1.9 6.2 0.4 6.6 -0.2 22.0 1.3

185.5 1.1 6.2 -1.2 179.3 1.1 13.4 3.2 32.3 -1.0 6.0 21.9 4.2 2.0 -1.6 14.5 2.4 24.3 4.7 31.5 0.2 26.2 1.2 6.2 -0.7 6.7 2.0 22.1 0.3

186.8 0.7 6.1 -2.1 180.7 0.8 14.0 4.5 32.1 -0.7 6.0 21.6 4.2 2.0 1.0 14.7 0.9 25.0 2.6 31.5 0.1 26.5 1.3 6.1 -0.9 6.6 -1.9 22.2 0.4

476.7 1.1 212.1 -0.1 5.3 2799.5 2032.0 768.0

482.5 1.2 217.2 2.4 4.8 2932.1 2448.9 483.0

488.7 1.3 223.1 2.7 4.0 2688.2 2657.1 31.0

493.8 1.1 224.8 0.7 3.5 2709.4 2693.9 15.0

497.6 0.8 228.6 1.7 2.9 2472.1 2401.9 70.0

501.5 0.8 233.2 2.0 3.0 2523.7 2304.8 219.0

505.3 0.8 236.6 1.5 3.2 2535.7 2290.3 245.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 159.9 162.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.1 1.9 Manufacturing 5.9 6.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 2.2 Nonmanufacturing 154.0 156.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 1.9 Construction & Mining 9.2 9.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.6 3.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 30.4 31.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.2 2.2 Wholesale Trade 4.9 5.0 Retail Trade 21.5 22.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 4.1 4.1 Information 2.3 2.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.0 -2.5 Financial Activities 9.9 10.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 9.9 8.6 Prof & Business Services 21.5 21.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 0.6 Educ & Health Services 26.6 26.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.4 0.6 Leisure & Hospitality 20.3 21.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 3.2 Other Services 5.7 6.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.6 5.2 Federal Government 6.6 6.5 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.4 -2.2 State & Local Government 21.4 21.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.7 -0.1 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

467.5 1.1 212.1 -0.2 6.9 1984.1 1864.6 119.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

471.6 0.9 212.4 0.2 6.1 1833.6 1660.5 173.0


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

21.1 4.9 9.1 12

21.3 4.8 9.3 12.1

21.5 4.4 9.4 12.1

21.7 4.1 9.5 12.3

22 4.4 9.6 12.4

22.3 4.5 9.7 12.6

22.6 4.9 9.8 12.8

22.9 5.2 9.9 12.9

23.2 5.2 10.1 13.1

23.4 5 10.1 13.3

23.7 4.9 10.2 13.4

24 4.8 10.4 13.6

24.2 4.6 10.5 13.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.7 2.7

19.8 2.6

19.9 2.3

20 2

20.1 2.2

20.2 2.1

20.4 2.6

20.6 3.1

20.8 3.3

20.9 3.1

21 3.1

21.2 2.9

21.3 2.5

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.8 39.9

43.2 40.1

43.5 40.2

43.8 40.2

44.3 40.4

44.7 40.6

45.2 40.9

45.7 41.1

46.2 41.4

46.6 41.6

47.1 41.8

47.6 42

48 42.2

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

47.9 4.6

48.2 3.4

48.5 3.4

48.9 2.8

49.2 2.8

49.7 3.2

50.2 3.4

50.6 3.6

51 3.7

51.5 3.6

52 3.6

52.5 3.7

53 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

179.6 1.4

181.4 2.4

182.1 2.1

182.9 2.4

183.4 2.1

183.7 1.3

184.2 1.1

184.6 0.9

185.8 1.3

185.7 1.1

185.9 0.9

186.3 0.9

186.6 0.5

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 -1.3

6.3 2.8

6.3 0.2

6.3 4.5

6.3 3.7

6.3 0.5

6.3 0

6.3 -0.3

6.2 -1.1

6.2 -1.4

6.2 -2

6.1 -2.3

6.1 -2.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

173.5 1.5

175.2 2.4

175.9 2.1

176.6 2.3

177.1 2

177.4 1.3

177.9 1.2

178.3 1

179.5 1.4

179.5 1.2

179.8 1.1

180.2 1

180.6 0.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

12.4 8.7

12.8 11.5

12.7 6.7

12.9 6.9

12.9 4.2

13 1.8

13.1 2.7

13.2 2.5

13.3 2.9

13.5 3.5

13.6 4

13.8 4.4

13.9 4.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

32.8 -1.6

32.8 -1.3

32.7 0.1

32.8 0.6

32.7 -0.5

32.6 -0.6

32.5 -0.5

32.5 -0.9

32.4 -1

32.3 -1

32.2 -1

32.2 -0.9

32.2 -0.6

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.8 22.9 4.1

5.8 22.8 4.2

5.8 22.4 4.3

5.9 22.4 4.3

5.9 22.4 4.3

5.9 22.3 4.3

5.9 22.2 4.3

5.9 22.1 4.3

5.9 21.9 4.2

6 21.8 4.2

6 21.7 4.2

6 21.7 4.2

6 21.7 4.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2 0.3

2 0.1

2 0.9

2 1

2 1.5

2 0.1

2 -0.9

2 -1.8

2 -2.8

2 -1.6

2 -0.1

2 0.7

2 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

13.7 7.1

13.8 6

13.9 3.9

14 3.3

14.1 3.5

14.2 3

14.3 3

14.4 2.9

14.5 2.6

14.6 2.3

14.6 1.9

14.6 1.3

14.6 1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.3 -1.8

22.8 1

22.7 -0.3

22.9 2.1

23.1 3.7

23.4 2.7

23.7 4.3

24 5

24.2 5

24.5 4.6

24.7 4.1

24.8 3.4

24.9 2.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.7 2.3

30.9 2.4

31.3 3.7

31.4 3.1

31.5 2.5

31.5 1.9

31.5 0.5

31.5 0.3

31.5 0.1

31.5 0.3

31.6 0.4

31.6 0.3

31.5 0.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.2 4.3

25.5 5.6

25.7 3.1

25.8 2.3

25.9 2.5

25.9 1.6

26 1.3

26 0.7

26.1 1

26.3 1.5

26.4 1.5

26.4 1.4

26.5 1.5

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6.2 -0.8

6.2 0.7

6.2 -0.5

6.2 0.6

6.2 0.5

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.5

6.2 -0.2

6.2 -0.6

6.1 -0.9

6.1 -1

6.1 -1.1

6.1 -1

6.6 0.8

6.6 0.6

6.6 0.7

6.7 0.7

6.6 0

6.6 -0.3

6.6 -1

6.5 -2.4

7.2 9.4

6.7 1.8

6.5 -1

6.6 1.4

6.6 -8.9

21.6 -0.6

21.8 0.3

22 2.3

22 1.8

22 2

22 1.1

22.1 0.2

22.1 0.4

22.1 0.4

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.3

22.1 0.3

22.2 0.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

493.4 1.1

494.4 1

495.2 0.8

496.2 0.8

497.2 0.8

498.1 0.8

499 0.8

500 0.8

501 0.8

502 0.8

503 0.8

503.9 0.8

504.8 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

224.2 0.8

224.5 0.5

226 0.5

226.9 1.1

228 1.7

229.1 2.1

230.3 1.9

231.5 2

233.2 2.3

233.6 2

234.3 1.8

235.3 1.6

236.2 1.3

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.6

3.3

3.1

3

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3

3.1

3.1

3.2

2773 2773 1

2669 2613 56

2579 2576 3

2557 2506 51

2490 2432 58

2408 2344 64

2434 2326 108

2494 2329 165

2540 2318 222

2533 2289 244

2528 2283 245

2512 2271 241

2512 2270 242

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


T allahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 5.2 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $41,700. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $51,500. Population growth will average 1.0 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average a level of 16,359.98 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.2 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.0 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.6 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 4.3 percent. None of the business sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Civilian labor force of 195,901 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.9% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,738 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 22,612 • Florida State University – 12,512 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Publix Supermarkets – 3,439 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Leon County – 1,919 • Florida A&M University – 1,759 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,631 • Capital Regional Medical Center – 1,151

Source: Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce

80

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Tallahassee tourism continues upswing

• Tourism in Tallahassee has been met with much success and will generate an estimated $1 billion for the state capital.

• In an effort to continue drawing tourists, $625,400 worth of taxes paid by visitors was placed towards various events, including sporting and special events to display the prominence of the city. Over $30 million was fueled into the economy from these events. • $1.5 million will be spent towards marketing efforts in areas outside Tallahassee, including Tampa and Atlanta, to assist in future tourism.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 1, 2018


T allahassee

Dulap family pledges $20 million towards FSU’s Unconquered Campaign

• Florida State continues to receive donations towards their $100 million goal of renovating and constructing new athletic facilities. • Donor of a staggering $20 million, Al Dunlap states that his contribution is primarily going towards the $60 million football facility. Dunlap hopes that the facility benefits generations of athletes to come.

• The Dunlap family has built strong relations with FSU, donating over $40 million to the university. The football facility is projected to be completed by July 2021.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, October 27, 2018

FSU interim athletics director David Coburn addresses budget cuts

• David Coburn, interim Athletics Director at FSU announced a $600,000 cut from the athletic department’s $106 million budget. • Coburn states that the 4% cut is necessary to ensure long-term financial strength for the university’s athletics.

• With a background in state budgets, Coburn is pursuing an initiative to prevent FSU from experiencing the athletic budget challenges that other universities face.

• The university has so far only acquired $16 million for the project and is in need of the $5 million to maintain the project’s schedule.

• In January, the university is hoping to obtain a federal loan in order to construct a new residence hall. A bond request was issued to the Division of Bond Finance to assist Florida A&M with securing the federal loan.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 25, 2018

Hancock Whitney Bank donates grants to Boys Town, FSU Foundation

• Out of 266 applicants, Florida State and Boys Town North Florida were chosen to receive $25,000 from Hancock Whitney’s Competitive Grant Competition.

• The $10,000 awarded to Boys Town North Florida will be funded towards their Family Home Program. The organization has a mission aimed at removing children from endangering situations, while making an effort to nurture family relations.

• Florida State’s $15,000 will be allocated towards its efforts to assist less-privileged and endangered students by further constructing the Center for Academic Retention & Enhancement’s College Reach-Out Program.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 3, 2018

• Despite the reduction in the budget, the athletics department is experimenting with new marketing methods for ticket sales as a way to increase profits for the financial health of the department.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 1, 2018

Florida A&M counts on funding for student center; expects to close on residence hall loan • Florida A&M has appealed $5 million from the Board of Governors to go towards their $40 million Center for Access and Student Success project.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


T allahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1.5

8.0%

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 17000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

13000.0

Tallahassee Payroll Employment

82

3

(Millions 2009 $)

14000.0

4.0%

(Thousands)

8.0% 6.0%

185.0

4.0%

180.0

2.0%

175.0

0.0%

170.0

-2.0%

165.0

-4.0%

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

190.0

160.0

2.5

15000.0

6.0%

195.0

2

16000.0

10.0%

2.0%

1

-6.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL December 2018 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

13.2 -1.7 6.9 6.3 13.1 -3.2 35.3 35.1 41.0 0.5

14.0 5.9 7.2 6.8 13.7 4.2 37.2 36.4 41.8 2.0

14.5 3.7 7.5 7.0 14.1 3.4 38.3 37.4 43.0 2.9

15.0 3.6 7.8 7.2 14.5 2.4 39.5 38.1 43.5 1.1

15.7 4.5 8.1 7.6 14.9 2.8 40.9 38.8 45.0 3.5

16.5 5.1 8.6 7.9 15.3 3.1 42.7 39.7 46.9 4.2

17.2 4.6 9.0 8.2 15.7 2.3 44.2 40.3 48.5 3.3

18.2 5.6 9.5 8.7 16.3 3.7 46.2 41.3 50.3 3.8

19.2 5.4 10.0 9.2 16.8 3.2 48.1 42.2 52.4 4.2

172.7 0.7 3.1 4.1 169.6 0.6 6.7 6.9 24.2 2.2 3.6 18.7 1.9 3.5 -10.2 7.0 -1.0 19.0 -0.2 21.1 2.1 18.7 4.6 8.8 -2.1 1.9 0.8 58.7 -0.9

177.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 174.6 3.0 7.5 11.2 24.5 1.3 3.7 18.7 2.1 3.2 -8.6 7.5 7.5 20.1 6.2 22.0 4.7 19.8 5.7 9.4 5.8 2.0 4.0 58.6 -0.1

179.8 1.1 3.2 1.1 176.6 1.1 7.7 2.9 24.4 -0.6 3.9 18.4 2.1 3.4 8.4 7.8 3.4 20.3 0.9 23.2 5.1 19.8 0.0 8.9 -4.7 2.1 4.2 59.0 0.7

182.8 1.7 3.3 1.9 179.5 1.7 8.1 4.6 24.1 -0.9 3.9 18.0 2.3 3.7 7.1 8.2 5.5 21.6 6.2 23.7 2.4 20.3 2.5 9.1 2.3 2.0 -3.4 58.7 -0.5

185.3 1.4 3.4 3.1 181.9 1.3 8.3 3.3 24.3 0.7 3.9 17.8 2.4 3.8 3.1 8.4 2.2 22.6 4.7 24.4 3.1 20.5 1.3 9.2 0.9 2.0 -0.1 58.3 -0.7

187.9 1.4 3.3 -0.4 184.5 1.4 8.6 3.1 24.2 -0.3 4.0 17.6 2.4 3.8 -1.0 8.6 2.9 23.8 5.3 24.7 1.1 20.7 1.0 9.2 0.2 2.1 6.1 58.7 0.7

190.0 1.1 3.3 -1.1 186.7 1.2 9.0 4.5 24.2 0.0 4.0 17.5 2.4 3.8 1.7 8.7 1.3 24.6 3.3 24.9 0.9 21.0 1.5 9.2 -0.1 2.1 -3.8 59.1 0.7

378.0 0.6 185.2 -1.7 5.2 975.6 740.2 235.0

379.6 0.4 188.2 1.6 4.7 1246.3 826.1 420.0

383.2 0.9 191.1 1.5 4.0 2705.3 1813.9 891.0

386.4 0.8 193.7 1.4 3.4 2116.7 1083.5 1033.0

389.7 0.9 197.3 1.9 2.8 1959.5 1021.1 938.0

394.0 1.1 202.2 2.5 2.9 1967.7 1229.4 738.0

398.2 1.1 206.0 1.9 3.1 2064.4 1309.0 755.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 167.4 171.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.7 2.5 Manufacturing 3.1 2.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -2.3 -4.4 Nonmanufacturing 164.3 168.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.8 2.6 Construction & Mining 6.2 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.4 1.7 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 22.8 23.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 4.0 Wholesale Trade 3.2 3.4 Retail Trade 17.8 18.5 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.7 1.8 Information 3.4 3.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 12.8 Financial Activities 7.3 7.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.6 -2.7 Prof & Business Services 18.5 19.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.7 2.6 Educ & Health Services 19.7 20.6 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.3 4.8 Leisure & Hospitality 17.2 17.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 3.8 Other Services 8.8 9.0 Pct Chg Year Ago -3.8 2.2 Federal Government 2.0 1.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.6 -2.6 State & Local Government 58.4 59.2 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.5 1.3 Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

373.8 -0.2 186.8 -0.5 6.4 1191.5 610.6 581.0

375.8 0.6 188.5 0.9 5.8 1186.7 634.1 553.0

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

Personal Income (Billions $)

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

16.4 5.8 8.6 7.8

16.6 5.2 8.7 7.9

16.7 4.6 8.8 8

16.9 4 8.8 8

17.1 4.2 9 8.2

17.3 4.7 9.1 8.3

17.6 5.3 9.2 8.4

17.8 5.7 9.3 8.5

18.1 5.6 9.4 8.6

18.3 5.6 9.5 8.8

18.6 5.5 9.7 8.9

18.8 5.4 9.8 9

19.1 5.4 9.9 9.1

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.3 3.6

15.4 3

15.4 2.5

15.5 1.9

15.6 2

15.8 2.4

15.9 3

16.1 3.6

16.2 3.7

16.3 3.6

16.5 3.6

16.6 3.5

16.7 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42.5 39.7

42.8 39.8

43.1 39.9

43.5 39.9

44 40.1

44.5 40.4

45 40.6

45.5 40.9

45.9 41.2

46.4 41.4

46.9 41.7

47.4 41.9

47.9 42.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.7 5.4

47.1 3.4

47.5 3.7

47.8 3.1

48.2 3.1

48.7 3.4

49.2 3.5

49.6 3.8

50 3.8

50.5 3.8

51.1 3.9

51.6 4

52.1 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

182.6 1.4

183.2 2.4

183.7 1.8

184.4 1.5

185 1.3

185.6 1.3

186.2 1.4

186.9 1.4

187.7 1.5

188.2 1.4

188.7 1.3

189.3 1.3

189.8 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.2 1

3.3 3.3

3.3 3.9

3.3 5

3.4 5.4

3.4 1.5

3.4 0.9

3.4 0.5

3.3 -0.3

3.3 -0.5

3.3 -1.2

3.3 -1.2

3.3 -1.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

179.4 1.4

179.9 2.3

180.4 1.8

181 1.5

181.6 1.2

182.2 1.3

182.8 1.4

183.5 1.4

184.4 1.5

184.8 1.4

185.4 1.4

185.9 1.3

186.5 1.1

8 4.7

8.1 4.4

8.2 5.2

8.3 4.9

8.3 3.4

8.4 2.6

8.4 2.4

8.5 2.3

8.5 2.8

8.6 3.5

8.7 3.9

8.8 4.4

8.9 4.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.1 -1.6

24.1 -0.5

24.3 1.2

24.3 1

24.3 0.7

24.3 1

24.3 0.1

24.3 -0.2

24.2 -0.3

24.2 -0.3

24.2 -0.3

24.2 -0.1

24.3 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 18 2.2

3.8 17.9 2.3

3.9 17.9 2.4

3.9 17.9 2.4

3.9 17.9 2.4

3.9 17.8 2.4

4 17.7 2.4

4 17.7 2.4

4 17.6 2.4

4 17.6 2.4

4 17.5 2.4

4 17.5 2.4

4 17.5 2.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.6 5.7

3.7 5.9

3.8 5.6

3.8 6.1

3.8 5.3

3.8 1.6

3.8 -0.6

3.8 -1.4

3.7 -2.3

3.8 -1

3.8 0.5

3.8 1.3

3.8 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.3 7.9

8.3 6.6

8.2 1.5

8.3 2.1

8.4 1.2

8.4 1.8

8.5 3.5

8.6 3.4

8.6 3

8.7 2.8

8.7 2.3

8.7 1.8

8.7 1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

21.5 5.6

21.9 7.6

22 7.2

22.2 5.6

22.4 4.5

22.8 3.8

23.1 5

23.4 5.7

23.7 5.7

24 5.3

24.2 4.8

24.4 4

24.5 3.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

23.4 0.4

23.9 3.4

24.2 4.1

24.3 4.2

24.4 4.3

24.5 2.5

24.5 1.2

24.6 1.1

24.7 0.9

24.7 1.1

24.8 1.2

24.9 1.1

24.9 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1.7

20.5 5.3

20.4 3.4

20.5 2.6

20.5 1.5

20.5 0.3

20.6 0.7

20.6 0.3

20.7 0.8

20.8 1.3

20.9 1.5

20.9 1.6

21 1.6

9.2 2.6

9.1 3.2

9.1 2.6

9.2 0.8

9.2 0

9.2 1.4

9.2 1.4

9.2 0.7

9.2 0.3

9.2 0

9.2 -0.1

9.2 -0.2

9.2 -0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2 -4.8

2 -4.5

2 -3.5

2 -2

2 0.2

2 0.1

2 1.2

2.1 3.9

2.3 14.8

2.1 5.2

2.1 0.7

2 -1.5

2.1 -10.9

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

59.1 0

58.3 -0.6

58.2 -1.8

58.2 -1.9

58.2 -1.4

58.3 0

58.5 0.5

58.6 0.7

58.7 0.7

58.7 0.7

58.8 0.6

59 0.6

59.1 0.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

386.1 0.9

386.6 0.8

387.3 0.7

388.2 0.7

389.2 0.8

390.2 0.9

391.3 1

392.4 1.1

393.4 1.1

394.5 1.1

395.5 1.1

396.6 1.1

397.7 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

193.7 1.3

192.8 1

194.4 1.5

195.4 0.9

196.6 1.5

197.9 2.6

199.1 2.4

200.4 2.5

202.1 2.8

202.7 2.4

203.5 2.2

204.6 2.1

205.6 1.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

3.5

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

3

3

3

1811 1188 622

1943 855 1087

2283 919 1364

2164 979 1185

1985 985 1000

1835 1027 807

1854 1094 761

1897 1158 739

1952 1214 738

2012 1276 736

2010 1270 741

2021 1280 741

2044 1297 747

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively high growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.3 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.7 percent. The average annual wage level will be $60,000. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 149,159.29 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.7 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.7 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.3 percent, and the Financial sector at 2.2 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,542,313 in October 2018 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 2.9% as of October 2018, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 45,027 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Nearly $2M county funds go to Straz Center, aquarium and zoo for expansions and renovations

• It is anticipated that the Hillsborough County Board of Commissioners will approve allocations from the Capital Asset Preservation Matching Grant Program for $1.65 million to be split between the Tampa Bay Performing Arts Center, the Florida Aquarium, ZooTampa, and the Tampa Theatre. • The Performing Arts Center, also known as the David A. Straz Center, and the aquarium will each receive $487,500 in county money. The zoo and theatre will each receive $325,000.

• The purpose of the grant program is to promote economic development through the preservation of assets thereby enhancing tourism, arts, culture, entertainment, and community education.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 15, 2018

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Legal giant Baker McKenzie to create 300-job support center in Tampa

• While the exact location remains undecided, international law firm Baker McKenzie has announced that it will open a support center in Tampa. • The firm, despite its size, is growing fast, as it surpassed $2.9 billion in revenue in 2018. This marked a 10% increase over last year.

• The Tampa center will house a variety of support positions for the firm, including legal services, finance, information technology, knowledge management, operations, business development, marketing, and talent acquisition. The center will be up and running by early 2020.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, October 17, 2018

Logistics business park near Florida Polytechnic moves forward despite local pushback

• A uburndale city commissioners voted against recommending 1.4 million square feet of distribution centers near the Florida Polytechnic campus. However, because the land resides in unincorporated Polk County, their decision is merely advisory.

• In spite of the opposition, the county continues to move forward with the project, which is led by developer Paul Seefried. • The city’s dissent is built around the school’s “Florida Poly 2.0” initiative. The plan calls for the eventual development of the land around campus into a research park that would combine industry, academia, and government.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, November 26, 2018 Hernando County bed-tax revenue tops $1 million

• Th e Hernando County Tourism Bureau announced that it received over $1 million in bed tax revenue for the annual period that ended September 30th.

• The tax, which is levied on accommodations at hotels, motels, bed-and-breakfasts, and other overnight providers, is currently at 5 percent. This year’s $1,055,330.80 in revenue marks a 12% 86

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

year-over-year increase.

• In fact, the revenue has been increasing at a remarkably steady pace, with 69 consecutive months of growth. The tax is the only source of funding for the county tourism bureau, and it invests in advertising and marketing to bring more tourism to the region.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, November 27, 2018

Port Tampa Bay lands weekly container ship delivery from China in January

• C hina-based Cosco Shipping Lines announced that it would begin sending a container ship to Port Tampa Bay every week beginning in January 2019. • At the beginning of the arrangement, the ships will move about 500 containers at a time through the port. Imports from China will take 31 days to reach Tampa Bay, and exports from Tampa will arrive in China after 27 days.

• The move will lead to cost savings throughout Florida, as the arrangement will prevent the need to truck containers down from larger ports like Savannah, Georgia. The savings are especially welcome at a time when trucking costs are rising.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 3, 2018

St. Pete panel approves $69-million tower that would replace affordable apartments

• The St. Petersburg Development Review Commission voted to approve a 20-story tower that would be built in an area currently comprised of affordable apartment buildings.

• Pushback against the vote brought up concerns that St. Petersburg’s affordable housing is disappearing, and that the necessary demolition of seven older apartment buildings for the tower would exacerbate the problem.

• Although proposed rents for the new tower have not been disclosed, the developer did admit that they would not be as low as the current $750 per month that residents pay. The project would displace an entire block of low-income residents.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 7, 2018


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.4

0.6

0.8

160000.0

8.0%

130000.0

6.0%

120000.0

(Millions 2009 $)

110000.0

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

100000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment 1450.0 1400.0 1350.0 1300.0 1250.0 1200.0 1150.0 1100.0 1050.0

1.4

150000.0 140000.0

2.0%

1.2

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

4.0%

1

(Thousands)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Tampa Payroll Employment

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%

(percent change year ago)

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Real Personal Income

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL December 2018 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

114.1 0.1 57.2 56.9 113.7 -1.4 39.6 39.5 48.2 0.8

121.6 6.6 60.2 61.4 119.1 4.8 41.6 40.7 49.3 2.3

129.1 6.2 64.2 64.9 126.1 5.9 43.3 42.3 50.8 3.2

133.7 3.5 67.5 66.1 129.0 2.3 43.9 42.4 51.7 1.6

139.7 4.5 70.8 68.9 132.6 2.8 45.1 42.8 53.0 2.7

146.8 5.1 75.0 71.9 136.6 3.1 46.5 43.3 54.9 3.5

154.1 4.9 78.9 75.2 140.3 2.7 48.1 43.8 56.6 3.1

162.9 5.7 83.4 79.5 145.6 3.8 50.2 44.9 58.8 3.7

171.5 5.3 88.0 83.4 150.2 3.2 52.2 45.7 61.1 4.0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment 1176.2 1208.5 1251.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.4 2.7 3.5 Manufacturing 60.0 61.2 62.2 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.9 2.0 1.7 Nonmanufacturing 1116.2 1147.3 1188.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.5 2.8 3.6 Construction & Mining 56.9 60.8 65.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.0 6.9 6.8 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 222.9 232.0 240.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 4.1 3.5 Wholesale Trade 48.9 50.4 51.2 Retail Trade 146.7 152.8 159.3 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 27.3 28.7 29.6 Information 26.1 25.5 25.8 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.4 -2.1 1.0 Financial Activities 99.7 101.8 103.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.3 2.1 2.2 Prof & Business Services 198.2 204.3 217.9 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.1 6.6 Educ & Health Services 184.6 188.4 194.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.3 2.0 3.3 Leisure & Hospitality 133.3 138.4 144.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.8 3.9 4.5 Other Services 42.4 43.4 43.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 2.3 0.1 Federal Government 22.7 22.9 23.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 0.3 0.8 3.1 State & Local Government 129.5 129.9 129.8 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 0.2 0.0

1294.9 3.5 64.7 3.9 1230.3 3.5 70.5 8.6 247.4 3.0 52.2 164.8 30.4 25.5 -1.0 107.5 3.4 229.6 5.4 199.7 2.6 149.2 3.2 45.1 3.9 24.3 3.1 131.3 1.1

1322.1 2.1 66.4 2.7 1255.7 2.1 73.4 4.1 248.0 0.2 53.2 164.1 30.7 25.0 -2.1 112.3 4.5 235.9 2.7 205.4 2.8 153.5 2.9 45.7 1.3 24.8 2.0 131.7 0.3

1352.4 2.3 68.8 3.5 1283.6 2.2 76.9 4.8 250.4 0.9 52.5 165.7 31.8 24.3 -2.6 117.0 4.1 237.1 0.5 214.0 4.2 162.1 5.6 47.0 2.9 24.9 0.6 129.9 -1.4

1380.1 2.1 69.8 1.6 1310.3 2.1 80.2 4.3 252.7 0.9 53.7 164.2 32.9 24.5 0.8 120.5 3.0 244.4 3.1 220.4 3.0 165.3 2.0 48.0 2.1 25.2 0.8 129.1 -0.6

1407.2 2.0 69.3 -0.7 1337.9 2.1 83.5 4.1 252.3 -0.2 54.3 162.5 32.7 24.2 -1.2 124.3 3.1 258.8 5.9 222.6 1.0 167.2 1.1 48.0 0.1 26.4 4.9 130.5 1.1

1428.5 1.5 68.3 -1.5 1360.2 1.7 88.1 5.5 252.2 0.0 54.5 161.7 32.5 24.6 1.7 126.4 1.7 269.2 4.0 224.3 0.8 169.8 1.5 47.9 -0.2 25.7 -2.7 131.9 1.1

3042.9 2.0 1476.6 2.4 4.6 17132.4 11023.3 6109.0

3100.0 1.9 1511.0 2.3 3.9 17645.6 12786.5 4859.0

3155.9 1.8 1539.8 1.9 3.4 17612.6 14221.3 3391.0

3201.4 1.4 1560.0 1.3 2.9 18834.5 14468.7 4366.0

3244.3 1.3 1581.7 1.4 3.0 20779.6 14942.8 5837.0

3286.2 1.3 1595.2 0.9 3.2 21864.2 15302.1 6562.0

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

2879.3 1.0 1421.5 0.8 6.9 11603.2 7252.1 4351.0

Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018

2924.7 1.6 1433.6 0.8 6.0 11692.6 7104.5 4588.0

2982.0 2.0 1441.7 0.6 5.2 14801.1 9765.6 5036.0


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C learwater

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2018

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

2019Q1

2019Q2

2019Q3

2019Q4

2020Q1

2020Q2

2020Q3

2020Q4

2021Q1

2021Q2

146 5.4 74.4 71.6

147.5 5.1 75.3 72.2

149 4.7 76.2 72.7

150.7 4.1 77.2 73.5

152.9 4.7 78.3 74.7

155.2 5.2 79.4 75.8

157.4 5.7 80.6 76.8

159.7 5.9 81.7 78

161.8 5.8 82.9 79

164 5.7 83.9 80

166.1 5.5 85.1 81

168.3 5.4 86.2 82

170.4 5.3 87.4 83

136.1 3.3

137 2.9

137.6 2.6

138.4 2

139.6 2.5

140.9 2.8

142.3 3.4

143.7 3.8

145.1 3.9

146.2 3.7

147.5 3.7

148.6 3.4

149.7 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

46.3 43.2

46.6 43.3

46.9 43.4

47.3 43.4

47.8 43.7

48.4 43.9

48.9 44.2

49.5 44.5

50 44.8

50.5 45

50.9 45.2

51.5 45.4

51.9 45.6

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

54.7 4.1

55.1 3

55.5 3.5

55.9 2.8

56.3 2.9

56.9 3.3

57.4 3.4

58 3.7

58.5 3.8

59 3.7

59.6 3.7

60.2 3.8

60.8 4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1347.1 2.1

1355.2 2.6

1360.8 2

1369.3 1.7

1376.8 2.2

1383.9 2.1

1390.6 2.2

1397.1 2

1405.7 2.1

1410.4 1.9

1415.5 1.8

1420.6 1.7

1425.7 1.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

68.5 3.6

68.8 4

69.5 3.4

69.7 2.2

69.9 2

69.8 1.5

69.9 0.5

69.8 0.2

69.5 -0.6

69.2 -0.9

68.8 -1.5

68.6 -1.7

68.3 -1.6

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1278.6 2

1286.4 2.6

1291.3 1.9

1299.6 1.7

1306.9 2.2

1314.1 2.2

1320.7 2.3

1327.4 2.1

1336.3 2.2

1341.2 2.1

1346.6 2

1352 1.9

1357.4 1.6

76.2 3.6

77.4 5.4

78.3 6.4

79.2 4.7

79.9 4.9

80.5 4

81.2 3.6

82 3.5

82.9 3.8

84 4.4

85.1 4.8

86.3 5.3

87.5 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

249.7 0.7

250.6 1.1

251.7 1.4

252.6 1.3

252.7 1.2

252.7 0.8

252.7 0.4

252.6 0

252.3 -0.2

252.1 -0.2

252 -0.3

252.1 -0.2

252.3 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

52 166 31.7

51.8 166.9 31.8

53.1 164.3 32.7

53.4 164.7 32.9

53.6 164.5 32.9

53.9 164.1 32.9

54 163.7 32.9

54.1 163.4 32.8

54.2 162.6 32.7

54.3 162.3 32.7

54.4 161.8 32.7

54.4 161.9 32.6

54.5 161.8 32.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.3 -3.5

24 -2.6

24.4 -1

24.5 -0.2

24.7 1.7

24.5 2.1

24.3 -0.5

24.2 -1.5

24.1 -2.5

24.2 -1.3

24.3 0.3

24.5 1.2

24.6 1.8

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

117.5 5.5

116.5 3.3

117.7 2.5

118.7 2.1

120 2.2

121.1 4

122.3 3.9

123.2 3.8

123.9 3.3

124.7 2.9

125.4 2.6

125.9 2.2

126.2 1.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

235.7 0.2

237.9 0.8

235.9 -1.1

238.6 -0.1

242.2 2.7

246.5 3.6

250.4 6.1

254.1 6.5

257.3 6.2

260.5 5.7

263.5 5.2

265.8 4.6

267.8 4.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

211.1 3

215.2 4.7

218.3 5.5

219.3 3.8

220.4 4.4

220.8 2.6

221.2 1.3

221.6 1.1

222.2 0.8

223 1

223.6 1.1

223.9 1

224.2 0.9

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

161.5 5.7

164.4 7.9

164.1 4.7

165.1 4.1

165.1 2.2

165.3 0.6

165.7 1

166 0.5

166.6 0.9

167.8 1.5

168.5 1.7

168.7 1.7

169.4 1.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

47.1 3.5

46.7 2.6

47.4 2.2

47.8 2.3

48 1.8

48.1 2.9

48.1 1.5

48.1 0.7

48 0.2

48 -0.2

48 -0.2

47.9 -0.3

47.9 -0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

24.8 0.3

24.9 0.5

25.1 0.5

25.1 0.6

25.1 1.1

25.2 1.1

25.2 0.6

25.5 1.7

28.5 13.5

26.2 4.2

25.3 0.4

25.5 0

25.6 -10.2

130.7 -0.9

128.8 -2

128.4 -2.6

128.6 -2.5

128.9 -1.4

129.3 0.4

129.7 1.1

130 1.1

130.4 1.1

130.7 1.1

131 1

131.4 1

131.7 1

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3150.2 1.9

3162.1 1.7

3173.8 1.6

3184.9 1.5

3196 1.5

3206.9 1.4

3217.8 1.4

3228.5 1.4

3239.1 1.4

3249.6 1.3

3260.1 1.3

3270.6 1.3

3281 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1536.4 2

1536.7 1.5

1546.3 1.6

1551.5 0.8

1557.2 1.4

1562.9 1.7

1568.4 1.4

1573.9 1.4

1582.8 1.6

1583.7 1.3

1586.3 1.1

1589.9 1

1593.5 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

3.5

3.3

3

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

3

3

3.1

3.1

3.2

17163 14864 2298

16890 14275 2615

17830 14347 3483

18559 14444 4115

18659 14367 4293

18781 14525 4256

19339 14539 4800

20018 14753 5266

20655 14955 5700

21108 15063 6044

21338 15000 6337

21466 14981 6485

21720 15194 6526

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


I N D U S T R Y L O C AT I O N Q U OT I E N T

E X P L A N AT IO N AND INTERP RE TATIO N This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

CALC U LATIO N An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

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Florida & Metro Forecast / December 2018


Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto. Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having “an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P 407.823.1451 E ssnaith@ucf.edu


UNIVERSIT Y OF CENTR AL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P. O . B OX 1 6 1 4 0 0 ORL ANDO, FLORIDA 32816 P H 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 • F X 4 0 7. 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4

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Profile for UCF College of Business

Florida & Metro Economic Forecast December 2018  

FL & Metro Economic Forecast December 2018 from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at UCF

Florida & Metro Economic Forecast December 2018  

FL & Metro Economic Forecast December 2018 from the Institute for Economic Competitiveness at UCF