Punta Gorda.......................................................................................... 115

Short Term Outlook for Punta Gorda, FL June 2022 Forecast

2022:1 2022:2 2022:3 2022:4 2023:1 2023:2 2023:3 2023:4 2024:1 2024:2 2024:3 2024:4 2025:1

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago -4.0 5.0 6.7 6.5 6.0 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 Wages and Salaries 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 Nonwage Income 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 Real Personal Income (12$) 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1 Pct Chg Year Ago -9.7 -0.9 1.1 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 Per Capita Income (Ths) 49.3 49.9 50.6 51.0 51.2 51.5 51.8 52.2 52.6 52.9 53.2 53.6 54.0 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 42.4 42.4 42.6 42.6 42.5 42.6 42.7 42.8 43.0 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 54.8 55.3 55.6 55.9 56.2 56.5 56.9 57.6 58.2 58.8 59.3 59.7 60.1 Pct Chg Year Ago 10.5 7.0 4.8 3.5 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 52.1 52.8 53.2 53.3 53.3 53.3 53.2 53.0 52.8 52.6 52.5 52.4 52.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.1 4.5 3.8 3.4 2.3 1.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 -0.8 Manufacturing 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Pct Chg Year Ago -0.1 5.4 7.0 7.0 8.4 3.2 0.9 -2.8 -2.7 -3.0 -3.5 -3.2 -2.2 Nonmanufacturing 51.2 51.9 52.3 52.3 52.3 52.4 52.2 52.0 51.9 51.6 51.5 51.5 51.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.2 4.5 3.7 3.4 2.2 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -0.8 Construction & Mining 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.2 6.6 5.4 2.7 1.5 -2.4 -4.2 -5.2 -5.3 -5.0 -4.1 -3.4 -2.9 Trade, Trans, & Utilities 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.2 12.1 12.2 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 6.3 6.8 5.7 0.4 -2.5 -2.3 -3.5 -1.5 -1.9 -4.8 -4.8 -5.4 -5.0 Wholesale Trade 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 Retail Trade 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.0 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.0 Trans, Wrhsng, & Util 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 Information 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago -1.1 -0.1 -1.7 4.1 5.8 -3.6 -4.1 -7.1 -7.2 -4.0 0.3 3.5 4.7 Financial Activities 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 1.2 2.5 3.1 7.2 6.8 5.9 4.7 3.2 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.2 Prof & Business Services 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.8 -2.9 -0.3 0.1 1.1 -3.5 -7.5 -9.6 -10.6 -9.3 -7.7 -5.6 -3.1 Educ & Health Services 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 5.1 4.0 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.1 2.6 2.0 Leisure & Hospitality 7.7 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 7.7 6.4 3.4 9.1 9.1 8.6 9.1 5.0 3.2 0.9 -0.7 -0.2 0.3 Other Services 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Pct Chg Year Ago 4.8 5.2 -0.1 1.3 -1.5 -4.3 -4.5 -3.2 -1.7 1.1 2.9 3.9 4.3 Federal Government 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 5.5 7.6 21.4 13.1 4.9 4.1 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 -1.3 State & Local Government 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 Pct Chg Year Ago 1.5 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) 198.4 199.5 200.6 201.7 202.7 203.7 204.6 205.5 206.3 207.0 207.7 208.3 209.0 Pct Chg Year Ago 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 Labor Force (Ths) 74.3 75.0 75.9 76.5 76.8 77.0 77.2 77.4 77.3 77.2 77.0 76.8 76.7 Pct Chg Year Ago 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.7 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.3 3.5 3.9 4.1 4.5 4.9 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 Total Housing Starts 5761.7 5380.2 4420.4 3616.8 3107.7 2729.6 2364.6 2130.1 1945.6 1883.9 1915.0 1888.1 1864.3 Single-Family Multifamily

4730.5 4364.8 3607.9 2958.7 2450.9 2102.6 1845.0 1641.0 1485.7 1417.1 1433.1 1397.3 1370.3 1031.2 1015.4 812.5 658.2 656.8 627.0 519.6 489.1 459.9 466.7 481.9 490.9 494.0

PROFILES

The Sebastian MSA is located in central east Florida and is comprised of the Indian River County. Sebastian is home to Pelican Island, America’s first National Wildlife refuge, and is known for its Atlantic-facing beaches.

QUICK FACTS

• Metro population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S. Census Bureau). • Indian River County population estimate of 153,989 as of 2019 (5-Year Estimate) (U.S.

Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 66,890 in May 2022 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • An unemployment rate of 2.9% as of May 2022, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 1,951 unemployed people (Florida Research and

Economic Database).

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Sebastian Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show below-average growth in the economic indicators studied in this forecast. The MSA’s Gross Metro Product level will be at $6,564.81. Average annual wage growth of 5.1 percent will lead the average annual wage level to $60,700. The per capita income level of $80,600, the second highest in the state MSAs, will be boosted by personal income growth of 4.9 percent. Population growth will be 1.2 percent.

The Sebastian MSA will experience an above average employment growth rate in the state at 1.5 percent annually. Sebastian’s unemployment rate should average 5.6 percent, the fourth highest unemployment rate of the MSAs.

Leisure & Hospitality sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.2 percent growth annually. The Other Services sector will see the second-highest average annual growth rate at 5.0 percent, followed by the Financial sector at 3.8 percent. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

Pipeline finally will bring natural-gas service to Indian River County’s barrier island

• Construction is set to begin as early as this summer on an 11½-mile natural gas pipeline to

Orchid Island, the last barrier island on Florida’s east coast without natural gas service. • Natural gas is considered an alternative to electricity and propane and is used by both residential and commercial customers to heat buildings and water, operate refrigeration and cooling equipment, cook, dry clothes, fuel backup generators, and provide outdoor lighting. • Natural gas is already available in most communities in Indian River County including

Fellsmere, Sebastian, and Vero Beach, and demand for the service is at an all-time high with many new developments such as the Spirit of Sebastian community receiving natural gas service. Source: TCPalm, March 4, 2022

New Office Building Completed in Downtown Vero Beach

• The exterior of the first new Class-A office building in downtown Vero Beach in more than a decade is complete and the interior is being designed this week to suit a buyer who put the property under contract in February. • The building, located at 1745 20th St., has 20 covered, ground-level parking spaces under the raised building and six more on the east side. The two-story lobby, which is complete, has reception space, an elevator, and a stylish staircase to the second-floor office space. On the main floor at the top of the stairs are 7,800 square feet of office space that Foglia has roughed in as five unfinished suites ranging from 1,371 to 1,783 square feet.

• Possible deal scenarios included an investor buying the leased-up building as an income property or an end-user such as a law firm or financial services company buying it as a company headquarters. Source: Vero News, March 10, 2022

Indian River schools plans $7 million community complex, sports fields across from Vero High

• A $7 million community park, sports fields, and business center at the former Jimmy Graves

Sports Complex got a head start in fundraising with a $1 million contribution from the city. • The Vero Beach Community Complex would be built on 11.6 acres across from Vero Beach High

School. In 2017, former City Councilman Joe

Graves bought the property from Indian River

County, hoping to maintain it for recreation in memory of his 15-year-old son, who died in a 2016 boating accident. • The school district now plans to turn the property into a community facility called the Vero

Beach Community Complex. The $3.8 million

Jimmy Graves Sports Stadium would include a regulation-size circular track and lacrosse and soccer fields for Vero Beach High School teams.

Plans also include a half-mile, $200,000 walking trail and a $280,000 inclusive playground with accessible equipment to accommodate wheelchairs and special needs. A $2 million student entrepreneur center and innovation lab are also in the works. Source: TCPalm, April 5, 2022

New tax would charge Vero Beach property owners and businesses to help clean Indian River Lagoon

• In a 4-1 vote, the Vero Beach City Council agreed to move forward with a new tax to help pay for city stormwater projects to help clean up and keep water out of the Indian River Lagoon. • If it’s adopted in June, residential property owners would pay between $30 a year for a 1,300-squarefoot home to as much as $239 for a home larger than 6,500 square feet. The owner of an average home would expect to pay about $75 a year, officials said. • Commercial property owners could pay up to $49,170, depending on the size of their property and the amount of paved surface. Governmentowned land would also be assessed. The city of

Vero Beach would be assessed almost $155,000 in stormwater taxes, a study determined. Source: TCPalm, April 26, 2022

$3.2 million from CARES Act coming for Fellsmere, Port St. Lucie business, internet access

• The federal government will spend more than $3.2 million for high-speed internet access in

Fellsmere and for small-business relief in Port

St. Lucie. The money is part of a $22 million statewide grant from the federal CARES Act, a COVID-relief program. About $17 million of that is dedicated to rural areas and small towns.

Fellsmere will receive $2.75 million and Port St.

Lucie about $424,000. • In Fellsmere, the money will help install highspeed internet throughout the city and help its most rural residents finally get internet access, said City Manager Mark Mathes. The city applied for the grant after conducting a study that revealed limited internet access in the area,

Mathes said. • In Port St. Lucie, the city’s $464,000 grant will be used to aid pandemic impacted small businesses in low-income areas. The city will reimburse businesses $5,000-$20,000, depending on their size and their number of employees,

Wooten said. Source: TCPalm, May 4, 2022

Long Term Outlook for Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL June 2022 Forecast

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income

11.6 12.6 13.3 13.8 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4

Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries

6.6 8.4 5.9 3.4 7.5 3.4 4.7 4.2 4.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 Nonwage Income 9.2 10.0 10.6 11.0 11.7 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.7 Real Personal Income (12$) 11.6 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 6.1 3.4 2.3 3.2 -2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 Per Capita Income (Ths) 75.7 80.8 84.2 85.5 90.2 92.4 95.8 98.7 101.9 Real Per Capita Income (12$) 75.6 78.9 80.3 80.7 81.8 79.3 80.2 81.3 82.3 Average Annual Wage (Ths) 46.5 47.8 49.2 52.5 56.9 60.2 61.7 64.0 65.9 Pct Chg Year Ago

1.0 2.8 2.9 6.6 8.5 5.8 2.4 3.8 2.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA)

Total Employment 51.9 53.5 54.4 52.1 53.6 55.6 55.8 55.2 55.6 Pct Chg Year Ago

2.8 3.1 1.7 -4.2 2.9 3.6 0.5 -1.1 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 4.4 12.8 4.8 -6.8 -3.5 14.0 5.7 -4.6 -2.8

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

49.9 51.3 52.1 50.0 51.5 53.2 53.3 52.8 53.3 2.7 2.8 1.5 -4.1 3.2 3.2 0.3 -0.9 0.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.0 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 7.6 6.8 3.6 -1.3 2.3 3.5 -3.6 -4.7 -1.8 10.4 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.4 10.1 2.0 3.6 -1.9 -0.7 3.0 3.5 -2.8 -4.2 -3.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 8.8 9.0 8.7 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.7 8.2 7.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 -5.7 -14.7 -16.8 7.1 -0.2 2.3 8.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.2 -1.8 2.2 3.4 0.3 6.2 3.1 4.0 2.0 0.3 5.9 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.6 6.8 6.2 5.5 5.7 4.9 5.1 4.1 -4.0 6.2 3.0 -9.1 -10.6 3.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 10.5 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.3 11.5 2.0 1.1 3.9 -1.8 -0.2 2.4 1.0 2.7 1.9 8.1 8.1 8.3 7.1 7.6 8.0 8.8 9.0 9.2 3.8 1.0 2.3 -15.0 7.6 5.3 10.1 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 0.9 4.0 -3.0 -2.1 7.3 4.7 2.0 6.0 5.4

Federal Government

0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Pct Chg Year Ago 17.7 -6.8 9.4 4.2 -3.9 -5.4 3.4 0.8 -0.7 State & Local Government 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 Pct Chg Year Ago

0.5 1.8 -0.9 -3.5 -0.2 0.5 2.5 2.2 1.3

Other Economic Indicators

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

152.9 155.4 158.0 160.8 163.8 165.3 166.9 168.8 170.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 Labor Force (Ths) 63.4 64.5 65.1 64.1 65.1 66.6 67.7 68.0 68.0 Percent Change, Year Ago 2.1 1.6 1.0 -1.5 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1 4.5 3.9 8.0 4.8 4.3 6.0 7.3 7.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

1111.7 1294.3 1449.9 1133.4 1285.5 958.2 1314.5 1497.3 1506.6 1108.2 1255.5 1412.0 1123.4 1285.2 911.7 1121.5 1247.5 1247.0 3.5 38.8 37.9 10.0 0.2 46.4 193.0 249.8 259.7