Florida and Metro Forecast September 2007

Florida & Metro Forecast 2007-2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published September 2007

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s

It is hard for me to believe that summer is over and that fall has arrived.

Unlike much of the nation, Florida residents do not usually experience cooler temperatures or the leaves turning, but we can expect some changes. At least in the economy.

a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n

This comprehensive forecast addresses many of the economical issues affecting Florida this quarter, and includes an in-depth look at the largest metro areas within the state. Among the many topics discussed are the unemployment rates, gross state product, and of course, the housing market.

Dr. Sean Snaith has put together another outstanding forecast. He has certainly been a tremendous addition to our college. His national and state forecasts continue to bring us national recognition. In fact, he was recently named “Most Accurate Forecaster for California in 2006� by the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast.

Thank you for your interest in this publication and for supporting the innovative research that comes from our Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

Have a great fall season and I look forward to addressing you again next quarter!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2007 - 2010 September 2007 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Jeff Slanker, Researcher Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Jennifer Reid, Researcher Nathan Goldschlag, Researcher Trina Banerji, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89 Definitions.............................................................. 90

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

C o n u n d r um : T h e Seque l ?

In the summer of 2005, well into the Fed’s campaign to raise short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates were holding constant and, in some periods, were actually falling. This unusual pairing of events caused the yield curve to invert (short-term bonds had interest rates higher than long-term bonds) and led then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to call the situation a “conundrum.” The inverted yield curve raised a red flag for many economists. Each of the previous six recessions had been preceded by an inversion of the yield curve, and the fear that recession number seven was on its way began to spread.

We wrote about the reasons why the yield curve had inverted and why the most recent occurrence had less to do with recession and more to do with foreign purchases of U.S. government bonds (see U.S. Forecast, October 2006, Inverted Yield Curve or Introverted Yield Curve?, p. 4-5).

The Fed surprised most analysts and forecasters on September 18, when it cut its target rate for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points from 5.25% to 4.75%.

This represents the first rate cut since 2003 and indicates that the Fed is concerned that the financial fallout from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown, coupled with a cooling housing sector, could cause the economy to slip into recession. There are also a large numbers of ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) still scheduled to reset at the end of 2007 and through 2008. The FOMC, perhaps fearing that this resetting of ARMs might turn a wave of foreclosures

into a tsunami that could wash the entire economy into recession, made this preemptive strike. But the question must be asked: Could the Fed’s decision actually make the situation worse?

The stock market cheered the rate cut, but bond markets were not quite so cheery. While short-term interest rates fell by the end of the week, long-term interest rates from the U.S. Treasury three-year bond through the 30-year bond yields were higher than they were prior to the Fed’s cut in the federal funds rate.

Does the Fed have a new conundrum on its hands?

Will this rate cut (and perhaps one or two more by year’s end) ultimately result in long-term interest rates rising instead of falling? Is the response of longterm interest rates as puzzling today as was during Greenspan’s original conundrum in 2005?

The recent behavior of long-term bonds is less complicated and comes down to one thing: inflation or, more specifically, expectations about inflation. The bond markets’ reaction to the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates indicated that, as a result of the Fed’s actions, expectations were that future inflation would rise.

An increase in expected inflation will cause nominal interest rates to increase one for one with the increase in expected inflation. This relationship between expected inflation and nominal interest rates is known as the Fisher Effect. While inflation has remained relatively contained for the better part of two decades, most measures of inflationary expectations (survey data or the spread between inflation-indexed government bonds and their non-indexed counterparts) currently

Table 1. Updated U.S. Forecast Reflecting the Federal Reserve Bank Cut in Interest Rates - September 18, 2007 2007Q3

2007Q4

2008Q1

2008Q2

2008Q3

2008Q4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

1.4

0.9

1.9

2.2

2.7

1.6

Oil - WTI ($ per barrel)

78.1

74.6

71.1

73.5

76.7

72.3

Total Real Consumption

2.4

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate

Consumer Price Index % Chg from a year earlier

% Chg, Annual Rate

6

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y

indicate that expectations still remain tethered. The jump in bond yields after the Fed decision to cut the federal funds rate interest rates may indicate that the tether has begun to fray.

Could inflation, the bane of market-based economies, the static that clouds the symphony of prices played by supply and demand in markets throughout the economy, actually be making a comeback? Are markets justified in raising expectations about future inflation in response to the stimulative move made at the last FOMC meeting? Oil has remained above $80 a barrel, and other commodity prices (corn, wheat) remain at or near record highs.

Unemployment rates remain at levels that must be considered full employment, and this is putting upward pressure on employment costs. In September, the price of a gallon of milk increased from $3.29 to $3.87, and since January, the price has increased by 17.63% through the first three quarters of the year.

There are a lot of indications that inflation has already began to sprout; whether this sprout will take root and flourish or wither away remains yet to be seen.

What I do know is that this new conundrum is not as confusing as Greenspan’s nor is it as benign. Let’s just keep our fingers crossed that Bernanke et al are proficient in solving puzzles and that they have made the right move for the U.S. economy. A recession is bad, but stagflation is worse. Hopefully, we will not have to experience either anytime soon.

How has the outlook for the U.S. economy changed in the wake of the Fed’s recent action (and in anticipation of perhaps at least one more 25 basis point cut before the year’s end)? It will not be a magic cure for what ails the economy, nor will it suddenly turn all of the bad sub-prime loans made at the end of the housing boom into high-quality assets, but it will raise growth slightly in the near term and will push inflation upward. The risks to the forecast have increased as well. Table 1 summarizes some of our current thoughts as to how the economy may fare through 2008.

We have revised GDP growth upward by just onetenth of a percentage point in the near term, but upward by more than two-tenths by the second half of 2008. Monetary stimuli to the economy work with a lag that is usually several quarters in length and can

be quite variable over time. We also feel that inflation will begin to creep upward and remain outside of the assumed comfort zone of the Fed, which was 1%-2% in the Greenspan era. It may be the case that we all have to get comfortable.

Uncertainty in the economy has been growing, and as each new piece of data is released, we will continue to monitor and reassess our forecasts both for the U.S. economy and for Florida and its metropolitan statistical areas as well.

T h e H o u s i n g M a r ke t i n F l o r i d a : F ee l i n g t h e Yeee o w ! F ac t o r I played college basketball back in my undergraduate days <insert peach basket joke here>. The Gators I played for (not those Gators) were from a school that was on a trimester system; the college had a sixweek break between the first and second trimester stretching from before Thanksgiving until after the New Year. During this break, the basketball team had to remain in town to experience the joys of two-a-day practices and getting ready for the upcoming season.

Since the college was shut down during the break, the dormitories were off limits, and the team was housed at a local hotel.

I cannot write about much of what transpired in that hotel, but we did take advantage of the whirlpool and heated swimming pool. My teammates and I would soak aching muscles in the hot tub, enjoying the 104-degree water, and then emerge somewhat lightheaded from the hot tub and jump into the heated swimming pool adjacent to the Jacuzzi. The 85-degree temperature of the swimming pool came as quite a shock as we entered the water, prompting loud screams (to the chagrin of other guests I am sure) of “Yeeeow!” (The scream was not unlike the infamous howl of former Democratic Presidential hopeful Howard Dean). This ritual became known as the “yeeeow factor” and we looked forward to it all day as we ran countless wind sprints and other drills during practice. The water of the heated swimming pool felt shockingly cold as we jumped into it, despite actually being more than 10 degrees above room temperature and rather warm. The shock, of course, was due to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7

F l o r i d a Summa r y

relative difference in temperature between the two; had we entered the swimming pool first, the jolt would have been significantly diminished.

I think some of what we are going through in the housing market is a real-estate version of the “yeeeow factor.” After coming out of several years of very hot housing markets moving into a relatively slower period (houses are, in fact, still selling, and prices have not imploded, more on that in a moment) feels shocking by comparison because of the stark difference in these markets. Feelings are not facts, and looking at the latest report on existing home and condo sales for Florida, things are not as horrific as some might lead you to believe.

The August 2007 sales report for existing singlefamily homes and condos shows a decline in median prices for both since August 2006. Not a big surprise.

In markets like housing when there is a surplus, the “invisible hand” exerts downward pressure on price.

How far have they fallen? 30%, 40%, perhaps more? It is, after all, a bursting bubble, right?

Median prices for existing single-family homes fell 6% from August 2006 to August 2007, and existing condo prices fell 3% over the same period. Will prices fall further? Yes. How much further? It is tough to say exactly; turning points in any economic cycle are notoriously difficult to predict. We think that another 4%-9% is possible, assuming that the economy is able to continue to grow over the next year and a half. When the economy gets pulled out from under the housing market (as is the case in Detroit due to problems with the U.S. automotive industry), that’s when things can get really ugly.

Sales have fallen more dramatically, in the 26%-28% range, year over year for both condos and single-family homes—a significant slowing to be sure. Is it tough to be a seller right now? You bet it is. Is it as tough as it was to be a buyer two years ago? Maybe—call it market karma, I guess.

When a true speculative bubble bursts, the asset’s price doesn’t fall 6% or 15% from its peak; it falls all the way back to its pre-bubble values (see NASDAQ after the dot com bubble burst). Will the same happen in housing? If you are waiting until this occurs to buy, you will spend the rest of your life as a renter.

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Florida & Metro Forecast

S h o r t - Ru n Hig h l ig h t s o f t h e F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2010 • Payroll employment forecast to grow at 1.7 % in 2007 with growth accelerating to 2.1% in 2008 and 2.8% in 2009-2010.

• High-growth sectors will include Professional and Business Services, Transportation, Warehousing and Utility, Education and Health Services, and Leisure.

• The housing sector will continue to cool, with housing starts hitting their nadir in 2008 with starts slightly below 2007 levels. Total starts begin to rise in 2009 and 2010. In 2010, housing starts will return to roughly 1998 levels.

• The housing soufflé continues to cool. Prices remain under pressure due to large inventories, but the fundamental drivers of housing demand remain largely in place and are preventing a more precipitous drop.

• Construction employment will shrink in 2007 and 2008 but will rebound in 2009 and be one of the top four sectors for job creation by 2010.

• Gross State Product to grow at an average annual growth rate of 5.9% from 2007 to 2010.

• Unemployment to rise slowly to 3.9% in 2008 and fall to 3.8% in 2009 and 3.7% in 2010; these forecasted unemployment rates are all at least 0.5% lower than forecasts for the national unemployment rate.

• Personal income growth accelerating from 6.2% in 2007 to an average growth of 6.9% in 20092010.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2007-2010 Is Governor Cristâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a I r r a t i o n a l l y E x ube r a n t ?

G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t

The Florida economy will continue to see growth over our forecast horizon. After enduring a substantial deceleration caused by the slowing housing sector and the financial repercussions of the sub-prime meltdown and credit crunch, the economy will begin to accelerate slowly in 2008. Aggregate output of the state, nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the statelevel analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at a torrid pace of 7.1% in 2006. After decelerating to a 5.2% growth rate in 2007, GSP will grow at an average rate of 6.1% during 2008-2010. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2009 at 6.5%. This predicted level of growth is well above our forecasted rate of growth in nominal GDP growth rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (an average annual growth of 5.15% during 2008-210). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to surpass $844 billion in 2009 and will approach the $900-billion mark the following year.

Real Gross State Product, Gross State Product adjusted for changes in the price level, should see growth of just 2.8% in 2007, the slowest expansion of real output since 2002. Pulled down this year by a rise in prices and a slowing economy, growth in real output will pick up steam in 2008 with growth of 3.6%.

Growth will accelerate in 2009 and 2010, and real GSP will grow an average 4.2% percent over the final two years of our forecast horizon.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s

Personal income growth will decelerate through 2007 and remain at approximately the same level in 2008 with growth averaging 6.3%. Growth will strengthen in 2009 and ease slightly in 2010 with growth rates of 7.1% and 6.7%, respectively. Real

disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.7% per year from 2008 through 2010 after another surge in energy prices and the housing slowdown pull down growth in 2007 to 3.8%. In 2009 and 2010, receding price inflation and a resurgent economy will once again power real disposable income growth of 5.0% and 4.7%, well above the 4.2% average growth rate of the last 10 years.

Energy prices will continue to be a drain on consumerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s pocket books. This year, prices have oscillated between $2 and $3, sometimes covering nearly that full range in just a matter of weeks.

Thankfully, it has been a very uneventful hurricane season to date (letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s keep our fingers crossed), but another Katrina-type event would likely be enough to push a teetering economy over the brink of recession. The trend in energy prices has been both upward in level and in volatility as well; this has been paired with the housing slowdown and has worked to erode consumer confidence and spending to some extent. This will lead to the slowest growth in retail spending since 2001, with growth of just 3.84%. The slowdown in spending growth will be short-lived with consumers spending more freely again in 2008-2010 during which annual average growth will be 5.4%.

Retail spending will exceed $300 billion in 2009 and approach $318 billion the following year.

After multiple episodes of gasoline prices at or near the $3-per-gallon level, consumers continued to shy away from, but not shun completely by any measure, purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency, rather than the size, has once again become an important characteristic of vehicle purchases for consumers. Foreign manufacturers of fuel-efficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles have enjoyed a rising market share at the expense of American firms, who still continue to struggle.

U.S. automakers are responding, but it is difficult to be nimble in this industry, and changing from the formerly lucrative focus on SUVs and pick-up trucks will take time to engineer. An easing of energy prices is forecasted, but large declines in energy prices are not in the cards. Auto dealers will still have to offer incentives and low or no interest financing to get consumers to purchase vehicles over the next year and a half. After two years of declines, we are forecasting vehicle registrations to begin to grow again in 2008.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

E mp l o y me n t

Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2007; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.4% for the same year. For the next three years of our forecast horizon, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation overall (1.4% U.S. average payroll employment growth 2008-2010) and will average 2.5% in Florida. The growth rate will accelerate from 2007 through 2009, and new jobs will be created at an annual rate of 2.9% in 2009 before growth eases back to 2.6% in 2010.

The Construction sector, which had experienced blistering double-digit growth during the housing boom, will continue to show the effects of the significant cooling in the housing market. Housing starts have fallen by nearly 50% and are expected to languish through 2008. The excess inventory currently for sale has caused builders to jerk back violently on the reins, and the consequence has been a loss of jobs in the construction sector. Cumulative job losses could approach 25,000 by the end of 2008 after which a recovery is expected to take hold. Growth will accelerate into 2010 and hit 3.2% in that year. The overall level of employment in 2010 will finally exceed the previous peak employment level reached in 2006.

The Professional and Business Services sector continues to show robust growth in Florida as well as nationally. 2007 growth is expected to finish at 2.4%, and we are forecasting this growth to accelerate along with the overall economy to 5.2% in 2008 before rising to average 7.0% growth per year during the final two years of our forecast horizon.

The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should also see growth accelerate in 2008 and 2009, with growth rising to 3.3% and 3.5% in these years before further accelerating to 3.7% in 2010. This surge in growth follows a slowing of growth in 2007 to 0.4%. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past couple of years that resulted in employment growth dropping from 3.8% in 2005 to a forecast growth of 0.4% for 2007. As energy prices settle in the future and the housing hangover fades, this sector will resume its upward trend further buoyed by ongoing growth in international trade as well.

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Florida & Metro Forecast

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007 and 2009, an additional 9,000 jobs will be lost. These losses will increase the number of manufacturing jobs lost from 1999 to 2009 to 77,400 jobs. Two factors continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment: increasing pressure from emerging economies and increased productivity of labor. The hemorrhaging of jobs from this sector will have slowed to a trickle by 2009 and we are predicting small but positive job growth to return to this sector in 2010.

U n emp l o y me n t

Unemployment rates in the state averaged 3.3% in 2006 and will continue to rise gradually to near 4.0% in 2008. Unemployment rates in the state will continue to remain well below unemployment rates at the national level, which are expected to average 4.5% from 2008 to 2010. Job losses in a few sectors will put upward pressure on unemployment rates, but growth in the remaining sectors should be able to absorb much of this excess labor.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1998

1999

2000

2001

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 367.0 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2002

2003

2004

September 2007 495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

2005

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.0 604.1 3.8 9.8 6.9 3.2 6.1 5.9 487.1 521.3 541.8 1.8 7.0 3.9 3.2 11.8 7.4 442.4 470.7 483.2 3.3 6.4 2.7 2.2 3.6 1.7 559.0 607.2 666.6 6.9 8.6 9.8 520.4 548.1 585.1 4.6 5.3 6.7

Employment and Labor Force (Household Su 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey %

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

2.6 3.4 -0.2 4.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 5.1 8.2 2.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 1.5

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

t ab l e s

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

Population and Migration 15,518.6 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 62.3 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 -10.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3 -10.9

150.6 108.5 42.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

1.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 182.5 56.2

272.8 211.6 61.2

Consumer Prices 2.9 2.8 4.7

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

402.5 8.2 7.3 419.3 7.2 10.4 367.0 6.8 5.8 417.2 6.6 435.6 5.0

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.7 2.2 4.5 4.5

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.0 604.1 3.8 9.8 6.9 3.2 6.1 5.9 487.1 521.3 541.8 1.8 7.0 3.9 3.2 11.8 7.4 442.4 470.7 483.2 3.3 6.4 2.7 2.2 3.6 1.7 559.0 607.2 666.6 6.9 8.6 9.8 520.4 548.1 585.1 4.6 5.3 6.7

647.2 7.1 6.6 565.0 4.3 5.2 499.4 3.4 3.1 713.5 7.1 609.9 4.3

687.5 6.2 6.4 586.2 3.8 2.9 516.2 3.4 3.4 750.7 5.2 627.0 2.8

731.0 6.3 5.2 610.9 4.2 6.4 538.8 4.4 3.3 793.1 5.7 649.5 3.6

782.6 7.1 5.7 641.6 5.0 7.3 566.6 5.2 3.7 844.4 6.5 677.5 4.3

834.9 6.7 5.5 672.0 4.7 6.5 591.8 4.5 3.3 896.7 6.2 705.0 4.1

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.5 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.6 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6

1.7 2.0 3.9 4.7

2.0 1.9 3.8 4.4

1.9 1.8 3.7 4.2

1.2 2.1 0.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -2.0 3.3 2.2 2.5 1.4 5.2 2.2 2.8 -0.1 1.0 1.7

1.6 2.9 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 -1.6 0.1 3.5 2.3 2.5 2.7 7.9 2.2 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.9

1.4 2.6 -1.7 3.2 0.2 -0.9 0.7 3.7 2.5 1.3 2.3 6.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 3.4 1.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

12

Florida & Metro Forecast

2.6 3.4 -0.2 4.1 -0.8 -0.4 -1.1 4.3 3.6 3.3 5.1 8.2 2.5 2.0 8.0 0.0 1.5

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

1.9 2.6 -7.6 8.2 0.3 -2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.9

1.4 1.7 0.3 -1.5 -1.8 -2.8 -1.3 0.4 2.2 1.2 1.3 2.4 3.6 3.1 -0.7 -0.6 2.2

Population and Migration 15,518.6 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 18,134.2 18,486.0 18,839.5 19,194.7 19,551.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 62.3 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 75.3 76.2 77.4 77.8 -10.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3 -10.9 -6.7 8.4 1.2 1.5 0.5

150.6 108.5 42.1

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

1.3

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 182.5 56.2

272.8 211.6 61.2

204.0 157.4 46.6

117.7 88.5 29.2

116.4 83.9 32.5

138.2 101.9 36.3

147.4 111.4 36.0

Consumer Prices 2.9 2.8 4.7

5.0

3.4

2.0

2.0

1.8

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

681.9

691.9

702.4

713.4

724.9

736.5

749.2

762.4

776.2

789.4

802.6

815.4

828.8

841.5

853.9

6.4

6.0

6.4

5.9

6.3

6.4

6.7

6.9

7.1

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.6

6.4

6.3 582.1

6.6 587.5

6.2 594.5

4.9 601.0

5.3 607.5

5.2 613.5

5.4 621.5

5.5 629.7

5.7 637.8

5.8 645.3

5.8 653.4

5.7 660.8

5.6 668.8

5.5

5.3

675.9

682.6

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago)

4.0 1.1

3.8 3.5

3.5 4.9

3.4 5.5

4.4 6.2

4.4 6.8

4.6 7.2

4.8 7.4

5.0 7.4

5.2 7.4

5.1 7.1

4.9 6.7

4.9 6.6

4.7 6.5

4.5 6.2

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

512.2

517.2

523.5

528.9

535.7

541.4

549.0

556.0

563.5

570.0

576.8

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. $)

3.6 3.2 747.7

3.3 3.8 754.5

3.1 3.1 764.2

3.4 2.5 775.7

4.6 3.6 786.9

4.7 3.4 798.6

4.9 3.5 811.3

5.1 3.7 824.9

5.2 3.8 837.9

5.3 3.8 850.7

5.1 3.7 863.9

581.7 4.6

588.8 4.5

595.3 4.4

601.4 4.3

3.4 877.5

3.3 890.9

3.3 903.5

3.2 915.1

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

(%Chg Year Ago)

5.3

5.1

5.2

5.4

5.2

5.8

6.2

6.3

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

5.9

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

625.1

629.2

634.6

640.2

646.0

652.3

659.5

666.8

674.1

681.0

688.2

695.2

702.2

708.7

714.1

(%Chg Year Ago)

2.8

2.8

2.8

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

3.8

Employment

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.6

Labor Force

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.8

2.1

1.9 2.0

2.0 2.0

2.0 2.0

2.1 1.9

2.0 1.9

2.0 1.9

2.0 1.9

1.9 1.8

1.8 1.8

1.8 1.8

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.4 4.5

3.8 4.7

3.9 4.8

3.9 4.8

3.9 4.8

3.9 4.7

3.9 4.7

3.8 4.6

3.8 4.5

3.8 4.4

3.7 4.3

3.7 4.3

3.7 4.2

3.7 4.2

3.7 4.2

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.2

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.7 -1.0 -2.1 -2.0 -3.4

1.7 3.0 -1.8 -2.0 -2.9

1.7 0.9 -2.4 -1.4 -1.6

1.8 0.4 -2.9 -2.3 -1.6

1.9 1.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.1

2.2 1.3 -2.3 -1.6 -1.5

2.5 0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -1.9

2.7 0.4 0.3 -0.9 -1.8

2.9 0.1 1.3 -0.6 -1.9

3.0 -0.3 2.2 -0.3 -1.5

2.9 -0.7 2.8 0.0 -1.3

2.8 -1.1 3.2 0.2 -1.2

2.6 -1.5 3.5 0.2 -1.0

2.5 -1.9 3.3 0.2 -0.9

2.3 -2.3 2.9 0.1 -0.7

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-1.4 -0.7

-1.6 0.6

-1.3 2.1

-2.7 2.7

-2.3 3.7

-1.7 3.5

-1.3 3.2

-0.4 3.0

0.0 3.4

0.2 3.7

0.7 4.0

0.8 3.9

0.8 3.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

2.0 1.0 1.1

2.3 1.2 1.7

2.1 1.6 1.2

2.2 1.9 1.0

2.3 2.4 1.2

2.3 2.8 1.5

2.2 3.1 2.0

2.1 2.7 2.5

2.2 2.7 2.8

2.3 2.5 2.9

2.5 2.2 2.8

2.5 1.7 2.6

2.5 1.3 2.5

0.7 3.6 2.5 1.2 2.2

0.5 3.5 2.4 1.1 2.0

Prof. & Business Services

2.4

1.7

2.7

3.7

4.6

5.9

6.6

7.4

8.2

8.3

7.8

6.9

6.4

6.0

5.4

3.8 3.6 -0.8 -1.6

4.0 3.6 -0.4 -0.4

3.6 3.2 -1.1 0.4

2.9 3.7 -0.8 0.8

2.1 2.7 -0.5 1.0

1.9 2.2 0.1 1.4

2.0 2.5 0.8 0.9

2.3 2.1 1.2 0.6

2.4 1.4 1.0 0.4

2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3

2.0 1.0 0.8 1.2

1.7 1.0 1.1 6.1

1.4 1.4 1.3 5.6

1.3 2.0 1.4 2.0

1.1 2.2 1.5 -0.1

2.6

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Chg Year Ago)

18,442.9 18,530.2 18,618.3 18,706.7 18,795.5 18,883.7 18,972.2 19,061.2 19,150.5 19,239.1 19,328.1 19,417.6 19,507.5 19,595.5 19,683.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 75.9 13.6

74.7 5.7

75.3 1.2

75.9 0.8

76.4 0.6

76.0 1.8

76.6 1.7

118.9

114.5

109.5

109.9

113.3

118.1

124.2

90.5 28.4

86.1 28.4

81.0 28.5

79.2 30.7

81.4 32.0

84.8 33.3

90.2 34.0

3.6

3.2

3.5

2.5

1.6

1.9

77.1 1.6

77.6 1.6

77.1 1.4

77.6 1.4

78.1 1.3

78.7 1.3

76.9 -0.2

77.4 -0.2

130.4

136.4

141.4

144.8

146.7

147.1

148.2

147.7

94.9 35.5

100.1 36.3

104.6 36.8

108.0 36.8

110.2 36.5

111.1 36.0

112.1 36.0

112.4 35.3

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.8

Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Chg Year Ago)

2.1

2.1

2.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,129.0 8,159.2 8,192.9 8,235.1 8,283.7 8,336.1 8,396.6 8,461.5 8,526.3 8,584.4 8,640.2 8,695.5 8,752.3 8,801.8 8,841.5

Manufacturing

396.3

394.0

392.6

389.7

388.6

387.7

386.7

386.2

386.3

386.5

386.9

387.1

387.1

387.3

387.4

Durable Goods

273.0

271.1

269.8

267.4

266.7

266.6

266.2

266.3

266.7

267.3

268.0

268.5

268.7

269.1

269.3

Wood Products

18.8

18.8

18.7

18.4

18.1

17.9

17.8

17.7

17.8

18.0

18.1

18.2

18.3

18.4

18.4

Computer & Electronics

48.3

48.1

48.3

48.3

48.5

48.4

48.1

47.9

47.8

47.6

47.5

47.4

47.2

47.0

46.6

Transportation Equipment 1,710.3 1,702.8 1,699.1 1,694.1 1,702.9 1,723.1 1,741.3 1,759.1 1,777.4 1,794.0 1,807.6 1,817.0 1,822.7 1,829.8 1,837.5 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

123.2

122.9

122.8

122.2

121.9

121.1

120.5

120.0

119.6

119.2

118.9

118.6

118.4

118.2

118.1

29.7

29.7

29.7

29.7

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.5

29.5

29.5

29.5

29.5

7,732.7 7,765.2 7,800.4 7,845.4 7,895.2 7,948.3 8,009.9 8,075.2 8,140.0 8,197.9 8,253.3 8,308.4 8,365.2 8,414.5 8,454.0 6.5

6.5

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.4

Construction

628.5

626.6

622.0

615.1

612.4

612.1

614.4

617.1

620.4

625.5

631.3

637.0

642.0

646.5

649.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.7

246.1

248.5

251.1

252.7

254.7

256.5

258.6

261.3

264.1

266.6

268.7

271.1

273.7

275.9

Wholesale Trade

353.5

355.6

357.5

359.8

361.6

363.6

365.4

367.4

369.6

372.0

374.4

376.5

378.9

381.3

383.2

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Business Services

1,015.1 1,017.4 1,021.4 1,031.1 1,038.9 1,045.8 1,052.8 1,059.3 1,067.0 1,071.6 1,075.5 1,077.0 1,080.5 1,084.0 1,087.1 166.3

166.5

165.6

164.8

165.5

166.6

166.9

166.8

167.1

167.6

168.2

168.6

169.2

169.9

170.6

1,366.3 1,374.1 1,391.0 1,409.9 1,429.8 1,455.1 1,483.0 1,514.5 1,546.9 1,575.5 1,598.4 1,619.2 1,646.2 1,669.8 1,684.4

Admin. & Support

831.1

833.4

844.2

858.1

873.0

892.5

914.5

939.5

965.8

988.1 1,005.3 1,021.0 1,043.2 1,062.3 1,072.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

462.1

467.3

473.0

477.6

482.1

487.5

492.9

499.0

504.6

510.5

515.9

520.6

524.9

529.0

532.5

73.2

73.4

73.8

74.2

74.7

75.2

75.7

76.1

76.5

76.8

77.2

77.7

78.1

78.5

79.0

Financial Activities

552.7

554.7

555.7

557.3

559.4

562.8

566.8

571.1

574.8

578.9

582.8

586.2

589.0

591.8

594.4

Real Estate & Rent

178.4

178.7

179.0

179.6

180.3

181.1

181.9

182.7

183.6

184.3

185.1

185.8

186.3

186.7

187.1

374.3

376.0

376.7

377.7

379.1

381.7

384.9

388.4

391.2

394.6

397.6

400.4

402.7

405.1

407.3

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1,002.8 1,011.0 1,016.1 1,018.8 1,024.1 1,030.3 1,036.5 1,042.7 1,048.3 1,053.1 1,057.2 1,060.6 1,063.5 1,066.6 1,069.0

Education Services

130.7

131.1

131.4

131.8

132.3

132.9

133.6

134.3

135.1

135.9

136.5

137.1

137.5

138.0

138.3

Health Services

872.1

879.9

884.7

887.0

891.8

897.4

902.9

908.4

913.3

917.2

920.7

923.5

925.9

928.6

930.6

Leisure & Hospitality

933.0

938.7

941.5

950.6

958.6

959.7

965.2

970.3

971.9

971.4

974.8

979.7

985.5

990.7

996.0

346.9

348.5

350.0

350.9

351.5

352.0

351.8

351.9

352.4

353.2

353.7

354.2

355.0

356.4

358.1

Other Services Government

1,117.4 1,119.5 1,124.5 1,129.4 1,134.1 1,139.0 1,144.1 1,149.0 1,153.7 1,158.4 1,163.8 1,174.2 1,177.7 1,177.3 1,179.6

Federal Gov't.

126.6

126.5

127.1

State & Local Gov't

990.8

993.0

997.3 1,001.9 1,006.2 1,010.8 1,015.8 1,020.7 1,025.3 1,029.8 1,034.0 1,038.1 1,042.2 1,046.1 1,049.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast

127.5

127.9

128.2

128.3

128.3

128.4

128.6

129.8

136.1

135.6

131.2

129.7

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

6,625.0 6,815.8 7,069.4 7,160.0 7,169.1 7,250.4 7,499.0 7,799.9 8,006.0 8,142.1 8,312.9 8,553.1 8,772.8

Manufacturing

467.8

463.9

463.4

440.8

414.1

395.9

396.8

401.6

402.6

395.5

388.2

386.5

387.2

Durable Goods

304.3

304.1

307.8

295.2

273.9

260.5

264.3

271.5

275.7

272.2

266.7

267.1

268.9

Wood Products

16.8

16.7

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

19.0

18.8

18.1

17.9

18.3

Computer & Electronics

69.8

67.6

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

50.7

49.8

48.4

48.3

47.7

47.0

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

2,077.0 2,087.1 2,055.6 1,937.8 1,828.9 1,774.0 1,765.7 1,771.3 1,764.8 1,708.4 1,715.4 1,784.5 1,826.8 163.5

159.8

155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.1

126.8

123.3

121.4

119.4

118.3

37.1

36.8

36.1

34.6

34.6

33.5

32.7

31.7

30.6

29.8

29.6

29.6

29.5

6,157.1 6,351.9 6,606.0 6,719.3 6,755.0 6,854.5 7,102.3 7,398.4 7,603.4 7,746.7 7,924.7 8,166.6 8,385.5 9.5

8.9

8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.5

6.5

6.6

6.6

6.5

Construction

398.4

412.5

435.9

451.7

457.1

476.2

525.0

589.6

637.1

627.6

613.5

623.6

643.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

238.0

241.5

245.9

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

241.7

244.6

245.7

253.7

262.7

272.3

Wholesale Trade

300.3

303.4

313.7

312.9

312.2

313.8

324.5

337.9

347.1

354.6

362.6

370.8

380.0

Retail Trade

884.3

908.5

937.9

934.5

923.1

920.8

946.0

985.4 1,004.8 1,016.5 1,042.1 1,068.3 1,082.1

Information

164.6

178.6

187.9

188.3

177.8

171.3

167.9

168.2

Prof. & Business Services

167.3

166.1

165.9

167.4

169.6

943.1 1,031.8 1,107.4 1,138.2 1,140.3 1,155.6 1,214.9 1,290.9 1,340.8 1,372.8 1,444.4 1,558.8 1,654.9

Admin. & Support

566.1

634.9

686.3

704.9

700.2

706.7

743.6

789.8

818.7

835.4

884.5

974.7 1,049.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

318.5

336.3

361.8

371.2

374.7

382.8

401.9

429.1

448.8

464.1

485.0

507.5

526.8

58.5

60.7

59.3

62.1

65.3

66.2

69.4

72.1

73.2

73.4

74.9

76.6

78.3

Mgmt. of Co. Financial Activities

440.1

451.8

462.9

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.2

529.6

546.4

553.7

561.6

576.9

590.4

Real Estate & Rent

133.9

138.0

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.4

162.2

172.4

178.3

178.8

180.7

183.9

186.5

Fin. & Insurance

306.2

313.8

319.5

322.4

324.7

332.2

342.0

357.2

368.1

374.9

380.9

393.0

403.9

Edu. & Health Service

787.3

793.3

815.5

840.6

863.7

896.4

923.5

946.6

969.9 1,005.1 1,027.4 1,050.3 1,064.9

80.5

84.7

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

122.8

125.3

Education Services

130.2

132.7

135.4

137.7

Health Services

706.8

708.6

724.0

746.1

764.0

788.1

806.6

823.9

844.6

874.9

894.8

914.9

927.2

Leisure & Hospitality

762.1

776.4

794.9

809.2

812.6

828.2

866.0

890.4

904.6

932.5

958.5

972.1

988.0

Other Services

274.7

279.8

293.9

299.4

310.2

317.2

324.3

329.8

336.7

347.3

351.6

352.8

355.9

Government

954.7

965.5 1,001.4 1,023.2 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.1 1,081.2 1,097.7 1,118.2 1,136.6 1,156.2 1,177.2

Federal Gov't.

120.4

120.5

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.5

126.7

State & Local Gov't

834.3

845.0

876.4

901.5

917.0

926.8

939.4

952.5

970.2

991.5 1,008.7 1,027.4 1,044.1

128.0

128.8

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133.1

15

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

681.9

691.9

702.4

713.4

724.9

736.5

749.2

762.4

776.2

789.4

802.6

815.4

828.8

841.5

853.9

Wages & Salaries

339.4

343.6

348.1

353.3

358.3

363.5

369.4

375.8

382.1

388.4

394.6

401.0

407.1

413.1

418.7

Other Labor Income

76.7

76.9

77.8

78.7

79.8

80.6

81.6

82.8

84.0

85.3

86.5

87.7

89.0

90.2

91.4

Nonfarm

39.8

39.9

40.6

41.4

42.3

43.0

43.9

44.9

45.7

46.5

47.3

48.2

49.1

49.9

50.6

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Property Income

166.7

170.1

172.9

175.6

178.8

181.9

185.4

189.1

193.1

196.9

200.6

204.2

208.0

211.5

215.1

Transfer Payments

111.0

112.8

114.9

117.1

119.1

121.3

123.4

125.5

127.5

129.5

131.4

133.4

135.4

137.4

139.5

Social Insurance

53.6

53.5

54.1

54.9

55.5

56.1

56.7

57.8

58.6

59.4

60.2

61.4

62.1

63.0

63.9

Personal Income

582.1

587.5

594.5

601.0

607.5

613.5

621.5

629.7

637.8

645.3

653.4

660.8

668.8

675.9

682.6

Wages & Salaries

334.7

Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars 289.7

291.7

294.6

297.6

300.3

302.8

306.5

310.4

314.0

317.5

321.2

324.9

328.5

331.8

Other Labor Income

65.5

65.3

65.9

66.3

66.8

67.2

67.7

68.3

69.1

69.7

70.4

71.1

71.8

72.4

73.0

Nonfarm

34.0

33.9

34.4

34.9

35.4

35.8

36.4

37.1

37.6

38.0

38.5

39.1

39.7

40.1

40.5

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Farm

142.3

144.4

146.4

147.9

149.8

151.6

153.8

156.1

158.7

161.0

163.3

165.5

167.8

169.9

171.9

Transfer Payments

94.7

95.8

97.2

98.6

99.8

101.0

102.3

103.7

104.8

105.9

107.0

108.1

109.3

110.4

111.5

Social Insurance

45.7

45.4

45.8

46.2

46.5

46.7

47.0

47.7

48.1

48.6

49.0

49.8

50.1

50.6

51.0

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1277.5

1387.5

Property Income

1279.7

1328.5

1324.8

1336.0

1344.5

1348.0

1350.7

1353.9

1358.1

1362.6

1366.3

1372.3

1379.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

270.8

271.7

274.7

277.6

281.2

285.7

289.3

293.3

298.0

302.4

306.8

311.1

315.2

319.8

323.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

231.2

230.7

232.5

233.8

235.6

238.0

240.0

242.2

244.9

247.2

249.8

252.1

254.4

256.9

258.9

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

402.5

423.8

457.5

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.0

604.1

647.2

687.5

731.0

782.6

834.9

Wages & Salaries

197.2

210.1

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.1

302.2

324.9

342.0

361.1

385.2

410.0

Other Labor Income

39.9

42.5

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

67.4

72.3

76.5

80.2

84.6

89.6

Nonfarm

21.3

25.9

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

32.7

37.3

39.2

39.9

42.7

46.1

49.5

1.5

2.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.3

Farm

109.4

109.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

137.1

142.9

155.4

168.3

180.4

194.9

209.7

Transfer Payments

Property Income

61.2

63.7

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.8

98.7

104.0

112.2

120.2

128.5

136.5

Social Insurance

29.2

31.1

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.2

46.4

50.4

53.4

55.8

59.0

62.6

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

419.3

434.3

457.5

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.3

541.8

565.0

586.2

610.9

641.6

672.0

Wages & Salaries

205.5

215.3

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.5

271.1

283.6

291.7

301.8

315.8

330.0

Other Labor Income

41.6

43.5

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.8

60.5

63.1

65.3

67.0

69.4

72.1

Nonfarm

22.2

26.5

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.2

33.5

34.2

34.0

35.6

37.8

39.8

1.6

2.1

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Farm

113.9

112.1

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.5

128.1

135.6

143.5

150.8

159.8

168.8

Transfer Payments

Property Income

63.7

65.3

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.5

88.5

90.8

95.7

100.5

105.3

109.8

Social Insurance

30.5

31.9

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.0

41.6

44.0

45.6

46.6

48.4

50.4

1200.0

1253.3

1314.2

1405.5

1302.3

1397.2

1443.2

1449.7

1417.0

1289.5

1338.3

1356.3

1376.3

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

162.4

174.6

184.5

190.4

196.6

205.7

225.6

244.0

261.1

271.1

283.4

300.1

317.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

169.2

179.0

184.5

186.5

189.9

194.8

208.2

218.9

227.9

231.2

236.9

246.0

255.6

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

September 2007

charts

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 6.5%

(%)

6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product 11%

(% change year ago)

10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

8.0%

250.0

7.5% 7.0%

200.0

6.5% 6.0%

150.0 100.0

8.5%

5.5% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

20

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30%

(% change year ago)

20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

Florida Charts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

22

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida Federal Government Employment 140.0

(Thousands)

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Financial Activities Employment 600.0

(Thousands)

550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

Florida Charts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0

24

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast

Florida Charts

Florida Construction Employment 650.0

(Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

Florida Charts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

26

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast

F l o r i d a New s Summa r ie s

Tuition power struggle heats up • Florida public universities are freezing freshman enrollment and increasing undergraduate tuition by 5 percent in response to state-mandated budget cuts. These moves coincide with intense litigation being brought against the state legislature by the Florida State University System for control over tuition, which ranks as one of the lowest in the nation.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 11, 2007 Gov. Crist signs historic $15.6 billion property tax cut legislation • Governor Crist recently signed a $15.6 billion property tax cut, which is expected to save Florida taxpayers $174 dollars on their tax bills come this fall. The move was made in hopes of stimulating the struggling economy and housing market.

• In addition, Crist signed a measure that would allow citizens to vote on further cuts in a special election in January.

Source: Sun Sentinel, June 21, 2007

Crist signs energy package • Governor Crist recently signed the state’s first package to reduce greenhouse gases. The package includes executive orders that require Florida to reduce carbon emission by 20 percent by 2012 and ultimately by 40 percent by 2025.

• In order to reach these goals, Crist outlined a number of carbon-cutting measures, including a controversial regulation similar to one in California that requires automakers to reduce auto emissions by 2012. Due to this proposed regulation, Florida could potentially join in litigation with California in a legal battle with the EPA, who controls the standards placed on automakers.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 14, 2007

Shuffling insurance market • There has been extensive shifting in the Florida insurance market over the duration of 2007.

Nationwide, one of the largest insurers in Florida dropped 40,000 policies. At the same time State Farm, Florida’s largest private home insurer, will be dropping 50,000 coastal policies in the next year.

Florida loses $50 billion due to federal policies • As the pool of risk becomes larger with threats • New research indicates that federal restrictions of devastating hurricanes, demand for insurance since September 11, including immigration and will not diminish as some companies hedge visa policies, have come at a cost of $50 billion their risk and leave. In light of this, eight new to the Florida economy. The primary reason insurance companies have been approved for this loss is due to the dependence of the to serve Florida. Together, these companies economy from foreign businesses and citizens. represent $1.2 billion in capital investment.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, July 12, 2007 Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 5, 2007 Florida is once again a top tourist spot • YPB&R released its annual Leisure Travel Monitor on the top vacation spots in the country, and after being displaced from the top spot by California for the first time since 1991, Florida is back on top. The state experienced a marked surge in tourism after a relatively calm hurricane season, in contrast to very active seasons in recent years that coincided with the tourism decline.

Source: Miami Herald, July 19, 2007 Florida to borrow money to bolster hurricane CAT fund • State officials have recently announced that it would be issuing floating rate notes in order to add to the state’s hurricane catastrophe fund.

The move would make available nearly $7 billion in addition to the current level of $5 billion that would be available as payouts to Floridians if a major hurricane were to hit this season.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, July 18, 2007

Condemnation of speculation in Florida • Florida has been one of the states hardest hit by the housing slowdown. It proved to be one of the hottest markets in good times, and now it is one of the quickest to cool down. New reports are suggesting that speculative buyers might be to blame for the rotten numbers of the Florida housing market.

• As speculative buyers begin walking away from properties in the face of rising adjustable rates, the Florida foreclosure numbers become skewed.

Federal agencies are starting to turn up the heat on poor lending practices by more thorough oversight and regulation.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 15, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Metros

September 2007

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona – Daytona – Ormond Beach MSA is expected to experience moderate growth in personal income at an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent, on par with the statewide average of 6.7 percent.

Population growth will experience moderate gains consistent with the statewide average, with employment growth just under the statewide average. The Daytona Beach area is one of the few Metropolitan areas in the state that is expected to experience positive housing starts.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services sector and federal sectors, at average annual growth rates of 3.9 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 496,575 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,299 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,654 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s 14-story hotel in works for LPGA Boulevard at I-95 • A Daytona Beach developer has plans to construct a 14-story hotel along I-95, which will hopefully begin construction in January or February of 2009 and be complete by May or June of that year.

• The 307-room hotel includes two ballrooms, conference space, and condo units for sale to investors.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 28, 2007 Firm plans $20 million New Smyrna condo project • The developer Commercial Alliance Group announced a new condo project in New Smyrna Beach with an estimated cost of $20 million.

• The new 21-unit condominium will be located in Callalisa Creek and will include a number of detached bungalows.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, July 26, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Tax support for music festival draws fire • City commissioners are debating whether or not to increase support for the Florida International Festival, which has brought top music acts to the area.

• The plan would rename the festival the Daytona Beach International Festival, but the new name would also come with an increased price tag.

Funding would need to be increased by 3.5 percent each year for the following ten years.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, July 5, 2007 City manager reins in Palm Coast spending in budget plan • The City of Palm Coast released its new $31 million budget recently. The budget reflects the slowing growth of the area, and while there aren’t many cuts, the budget does not account for the hiring of dozens of new employees as in prior years.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, August 15, 2007 Time to ditch beach tolls?

• The debate over tolls for driving on the beach in Daytona has been reignited as public officials are considering abandoning the toll system.

While the tolls do provide revenue, officials are reconsidering their usefulness.

• Citizens against the toll system claim that they don’t contribute as much to the budget as they once did and that the tolls are discouraging potential tourists.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, June 3, 2007

30

Florida & Metro Forecast

De l t o n a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Da y t o n a B eac h â&#x20AC;&#x201C; O r m o n d B eac h Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, MSA Industry Location Quotients Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.3

0.6

(percent)

16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

180.0

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0

4.0%

160.0 150.0

2.0%

140.0 130.0

1.5

14000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 190.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

0.9

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Deltona Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.8 6.1 5.9 9.9 13.4 3.8 31.1 26.4 33.4 3.5

16.1 6.6 6 10.1 13.6 3.7 31.5 26.7 33.7 3.4

16.3 6.2 6.1 10.2 13.8 3.8 31.8 26.8 34 2.8

16.6 6.5 6.2 10.4 13.9 4.6 32.2 27 34.2 3.7

16.9 6.8 6.3 10.6 14.1 4.8 32.6 27.2 34.5 3.5

17.2 6.8 6.3 10.8 14.3 4.7 33 27.4 34.8 3.5

17.5 6.9 6.4 11 14.4 4.8 33.4 27.6 35.2 3.5

17.8 7 6.5 11.2 14.6 4.9 33.8 27.8 35.5 3.6

18.1 7.2 6.6 11.5 14.8 5.2 34.3 28 35.8 3.7

18.4 7.2 6.7 11.7 15 5.2 34.7 28.2 36.2 3.8

18.7 7.1 6.8 11.9 15.1 5.1 35 28.4 36.5 3.8

19 6.8 6.9 12.1 15.3 4.9 35.4 28.6 36.8 3.8

19.3 6.6 7 12.3 15.5 4.8 35.8 28.8 37.2 3.7

19.6 6.5 7.1 12.5 15.7 4.5 36.2 29 37.5 3.7

180.3 1.9 10.5 -1.3 169.9 2.1 14.1 -2.2 34 3.1 5.2 26.5 2.3 3 1.6 7.8 1 22.5 4.6 33 1.8 21.6 2.2 8.8 0.6 1.4 1.9 23.6 2.1

181.3 2 10.4 -1.2 170.9 2.2 14.1 -1.3 34.3 3.2 5.3 26.7 2.4 3 2.5 7.9 1.4 22.8 4.4 33.1 2 21.7 2.2 8.8 0.2 1.4 1.4 23.7 2.2

182.3 2.1 10.4 -0.5 171.8 2.3 14.2 -0.2 34.5 2.8 5.3 26.9 2.4 3.1 3 7.9 2.1 23.1 4.7 33.4 2.6 21.8 1.7 8.8 0 1.4 -3.8 23.8 2.1

183.4 2.2 10.5 -0.1 172.9 2.3 14.2 0.7 34.7 2.8 5.4 27.1 2.4 3.1 2.6 7.9 2.3 23.5 5.1 33.5 2.5 21.8 1 8.8 0 1.4 -0.8 23.9 2

184.3 2.2 10.5 0.2 173.8 2.3 14.3 1.5 34.9 2.6 5.4 27.2 2.4 3.1 2.1 8 2.4 23.7 5.4 33.7 2.2 21.8 0.9 8.8 0.1 1.4 2.2 24 1.9

185.2 2.2 10.5 0.5 174.7 2.3 14.5 2.2 35.1 2.3 5.5 27.3 2.5 3.1 2 8 2.4 24 5.1 33.8 1.9 21.9 0.7 8.8 0.4 1.5 6.3 24.1 1.8

186.2 2.1 10.5 0.7 175.7 2.2 14.5 2.7 35.1 1.9 5.5 27.3 2.5 3.1 2.3 8.1 2.4 24.1 4.4 33.9 1.7 21.9 0.6 8.8 0.5 1.7 27.2 24.2 1.7

187 2 10.5 0.7 176.4 2 14.6 2.9 35.3 1.6 5.5 27.4 2.5 3.1 2.4 8.1 2.3 24.4 4.2 34.1 1.6 22.1 1 8.8 0.7 1.5 7.2 24.3 1.7

187.9 2 10.5 0.7 177.4 2 14.7 2.8 35.4 1.4 5.6 27.5 2.5 3.2 2.4 8.2 2 24.7 4.1 34.2 1.5 22.1 1.5 8.9 0.8 1.6 8.5 24.4 1.8

188.6 1.8 10.6 0.6 178.1 1.9 14.8 2.2 35.5 1.3 5.6 27.6 2.6 3.2 2.4 8.2 1.8 24.9 3.9 34.3 1.5 22.2 1.5 8.9 1.1 1.6 3.2 24.5 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

177 0.7 10.6 0.3 166.4 0.7 14.4 -1.6 33 0.7 5.1 25.7 2.2 3 1.6 7.7 -1.1 21.5 0.1 32.4 3.5 21.1 -1.3 8.7 3 1.4 -1.1 23.1 0.6

177.8 0.7 10.6 -0.4 167.2 0.8 14.3 -2 33.2 1.4 5.1 25.8 2.3 3 -0.9 7.7 -0.6 21.8 2.6 32.5 2 21.2 -0.9 8.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 23.2 0

178.5 1.2 10.5 -2.7 168 1.4 14.2 -2.7 33.6 2.4 5.2 26.1 2.3 3 -1.9 7.7 0.8 22.1 4.1 32.5 2.2 21.5 0.6 8.8 0.3 1.4 0.5 23.3 1

179.5 1.6 10.5 -1.4 169 1.7 14.1 -2.9 33.8 2.6 5.2 26.3 2.3 3 0.2 7.8 2.3 22.3 4.1 32.7 1.9 21.6 2.2 8.8 -0.3 1.4 0.4 23.4 1.6

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13749.7 508.1 1.9 253.3 1.8 3.8 2492 1966 526

*Quarterly at an annual rate

32

Florida & Metro Forecast

13868 13983.6 14107.8 14234.6 14377.7 14517.9 14669.1 14809.3 14957.8 15109.6 15239.1 15376.7 15487.4 510.5 512.9 515.4 518 520.5 523 525.6 528.1 530.7 533.3 535.8 538.4 540.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 2 1.9 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 254.8 256.2 257.7 259.1 260.5 261.8 263.1 264.3 265.6 266.9 268.2 269.5 270.7 1 2 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 3.9 3.9 4 4 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 2583 2738 2990 3193 3378 3487 3580 3660 3714 3738 3746 3779 3777 2018 2123 2349 2518 2684 2769 2847 2914 2968 3002 3023 3059 3090 566 614 641 675 693 718 732 746 746 737 723 719 688

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.6 4.7 3.6 6 9.9 3 21.9 22.5 24.9 4.9

10.4 7.7 3.9 6.5 10.4 5.1 23.3 23.3 26 4.7

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.8 27.7 4

11.8 4 4.6 7.2 11.2 2 25.2 23.9 28.8 3.8

13 9.8 5 8 12 7 27.1 25 29.9 3.8

13.8 6.6 5.3 8.5 12.4 3.6 28.3 25.4 30.7 2.9

14.8 6.9 5.7 9.1 12.9 4.1 29.7 25.9 32.2 4.7

15.7 6.3 5.9 9.8 13.4 3.8 31 26.4 33.3 3.4

16.8 6.6 6.2 10.5 14 4.5 32.4 27.1 34.4 3.4

17.9 7.1 6.6 11.4 14.7 5 34 27.9 35.7 3.7

19.1 6.7 7 12.2 15.4 4.8 35.6 28.7 37 3.8

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.8 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.3 3.9 10.2 4.3 161 3.9 13.8 15.7 33.1 3.7 4.8 26 2.3 2.7 -2.7 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.6

175.5 2.5 10.6 3.8 164.8 2.4 14.7 6.8 33 -0.4 4.9 25.8 2.2 2.9 7.7 7.8 5.8 21.1 2.5 31.2 2.4 21.5 -0.8 8.5 3.9 1.4 -0.6 22.9 4.7

177 0.9 10.6 0.3 166.3 0.9 14.5 -1.8 33 0.1 5 25.7 2.2 3 2.8 7.7 -0.9 21.5 2 32.2 3.3 21.2 -1.2 8.8 3.2 1.4 -0.6 23.1 1.2

179.9 1.6 10.5 -1.6 169.4 1.9 14.1 -2.3 33.9 2.8 5.2 26.4 2.3 3 0.6 7.8 1.4 22.4 4.3 32.8 2 21.6 1.8 8.8 0.2 1.4 1 23.5 1.7

183.8 2.2 10.5 0 173.3 2.3 14.3 1.1 34.8 2.6 5.4 27.1 2.4 3.1 2.4 8 2.3 23.6 5.1 33.6 2.3 21.8 1.1 8.8 0.1 1.4 1 24 1.9

187.4 2 10.5 0.7 176.9 2 14.7 2.6 35.3 1.5 5.6 27.5 2.5 3.2 2.4 8.1 2.1 24.5 4.2 34.1 1.6 22.1 1.1 8.9 0.8 1.6 11.2 24.4 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

143.7 1.3 10.4 -6.8 133.3 2 7.9 0.8 30.3 2.1 4.3 23.5 2.6 3 36.6 6.8 0 13.3 3.8 25.3 3.4 18.8 -1.1 6.8 1.6 1.3 5.3 19.6 -1.1

147.5 2.7 10.9 5.1 136.6 2.5 8.3 5.4 31.3 3.4 4.4 24.2 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.8 -0.6 13.3 0 25.9 2.3 19.2 2.3 7.1 5.1 1.5 12.5 19.9 1.3

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.1 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9544.7 439.3 1.4 181.5 0.2 3.2 3903 3416 487

9858.1 10235.8 10626.1 11256.7 11959.1 12806.9 13394.7 13716.9 14175.9 14738.5 15303.2 445.8 452.5 460.2 468.7 479.4 488.9 497.8 507.1 516.7 526.9 537.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 2 1.8 1.9 1.9 2 1.9 209.7 214.6 220.9 227.6 234.4 240.6 248 252.8 258.4 263.7 268.8 15.5 2.3 2.9 3 3 2.6 3.1 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.3 5.5 5.1 4.6 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3641 4506 4891 6324 6319 6453 4140 2509 3075 3610 3760 3195 3441 4220 5077 4868 5212 3139 2015 2419 2875 3043 446 1065 671 1248 1451 1241 1001 493 656 736 717

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 243,985 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 227,120 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,865 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 132,669 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.3%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 3,051 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

percent. However, Gainesville, as with most other areas of the state, is expected to experience negative housing starts, an indication of the cooling housing market.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and leisure sectors, at average annual growth rates of 3.9 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Hilton at UF up for sale • The owners of the Hilton University of Florida Hotel and Conference Center are out to broker a deal to sell the hotel. The hotel opened in 2000 and has 245 rooms, three suites, and 25,000 square feet of conference space.

• The Hilton had been leasing the land from the University of Florida, which will have to sign off on any sublet agreement before the hotel can be sold.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, May 27, 2007 A new Home Depot in town • A new Home Depot opened its doors August 3, six days before its official grand opening. The store is smaller than most Home Depot stores; it is about 96,000 square feet as opposed to the average 103,000 square feet, and it has a different shape to accommodate local wetland issues.

• The retailer currently employs about 125 workers; 75 percent of these employees are new to the Home Depot organization. Applicants said they were attracted to flexible schedules and the company’s benefits package, according to Kim Tesch-Vaught, senior director of workforce for FloridaWorks.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 4, 2007

Growth project to bring new industries • A group of 14 rural north central Florida counties are working together to lure building The Gainesville MSA is expected to have one of the components and distribution businesses to six lowest unemployment rates of all metropolitan areas at preset locations. The North Florida Catalyst a level of 2.8 percent. Additionally, the area will show Project will receive financial support from the moderate growth of annual average wage at a rate of 3.4 state.

34

Florida & Metro Forecast

G ai n e s v i l l e

• Two years ago, the state legislature provided $2 million in funding for economic research, site selection, and marketing throughout the state. The program’s targeted industry pay is in the mid to high $40,000 range. Qualifying businesses will receive up to $6,000 in tax credits for each job created in rural areas.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, June 7, 2007 Gainesville home sales up in July • Sales of existing single-family homes in the Gainesville area crept up in July compared to a year ago, but the median price remained down.

Despite national housing troubles, the median price of homes in Gainesville remained above last year’s numbers. These new figures suggest that sellers are now willing to lower prices to make sales.

• Total sales were up 7 percent over last July and median price was down 9 percent to $199,200, according to Florida Association of Realtors.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 28, 2007 Newberry firm secures Navy contract • J2 Engineering, which recently built an office in Newberry, won a $60 million, five-year U.S. Navy contract to provide construction services to naval facilities in northern Florida and southern Georgia.

• Since 2002, J2 has grown from 5 employees and $260,000 in revenue to 60 employees and $20.1 million in revenue. This year, the firm has secured $220 million in contracts.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, August 26, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8000.0 7000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

135.0

6.0%

130.0

4.0%

125.0 120.0

2.0%

115.0

0.0%

36

2.5

10000.0

140.0

110.0

2.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 145.0

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.1 5.5 4.9 3.2 6.9 3.2 32.7 27.8 36.3 3.5

8.3 5.9 5 3.3 7 3 33 28 36.6 3.4

8.4 5.1 5 3.3 7.1 2.7 33.4 28.1 36.9 2.8

8.5 5.6 5.1 3.4 7.1 3.7 33.8 28.3 37.2 3.7

8.6 5.7 5.2 3.4 7.2 3.8 34.2 28.5 37.5 3.4

8.7 5.8 5.2 3.5 7.2 3.7 34.6 28.7 37.9 3.4

8.9 5.8 5.3 3.5 7.3 3.7 35 28.9 38.2 3.4

9 5.8 5.4 3.6 7.4 3.8 35.4 29.1 38.6 3.5

9.1 5.9 5.5 3.7 7.5 3.9 35.8 29.3 38.9 3.7

9.3 5.9 5.5 3.7 7.5 4 36.2 29.5 39.3 3.7

9.4 6 5.6 3.8 7.6 4 36.7 29.7 39.7 3.8

9.5 5.7 5.7 3.8 7.7 3.8 37 29.9 40 3.8

9.6 5.7 5.7 3.9 7.7 3.9 37.4 30.1 40.4 3.7

9.8 5.6 5.8 4 7.8 3.7 37.8 30.3 40.7 3.6

139.6 1.7 4.6 0.3 135 1.8 6.2 1.3 19.9 2.1 2.9 15 2.1 2 1.9 7 2.5 14 5.2 23.5 1.9 15.1 1 4.7 -0.4 3.7 0.1 39 1

140.1 1.6 4.6 0.8 135.5 1.7 6.2 1.9 20 1.8 2.9 15 2.1 2 1.9 7 2.5 14.1 5 23.5 1.6 15.1 0.6 4.7 -0.1 3.8 1.9 39.1 0.9

140.8 1.7 4.6 1 136.1 1.7 6.2 2.3 20 1.4 3 15 2.1 2 2.2 7.1 2.4 14.2 4.2 23.6 1.4 15.2 0.5 4.7 0 3.9 7.7 39.2 1

140.9 1.3 4.6 0.9 136.3 1.3 6.3 2.5 20.1 1.1 3 15.1 2.1 2 2.3 7.1 2.3 14.4 4 23.7 1.2 15.3 0.9 4.7 0.1 3.5 -4.9 39.3 1.1

141.7 1.5 4.6 0.9 137 1.5 6.3 2.4 20.1 0.9 3 15.1 2.2 2 2.3 7.1 2 14.5 3.9 23.8 1.1 15.3 1.5 4.8 0.3 3.7 0.8 39.4 1.1

142.1 1.4 4.6 0.8 137.5 1.4 6.3 1.9 20.2 0.9 3 15.1 2.2 2 2.2 7.2 1.8 14.6 3.7 23.8 1.1 15.4 1.6 4.8 0.6 3.8 0.3 39.5 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 1.3 4.6 -2.6 130.3 1.4 6.2 -2.7 19 2 2.8 14.3 1.9 1.9 -1.1 6.7 3.3 12.7 1.8 22.7 2.1 14.6 6.4 4.7 2.1 3.7 -1.3 38.1 -0.5

135.4 1.4 4.6 -4.4 130.8 1.6 6.2 -4.8 19.1 2.3 2.8 14.4 1.9 1.9 -0.5 6.8 2.4 12.9 2 22.8 1.8 14.7 6.3 4.8 -0.5 3.7 -0.3 38.2 1

136 1.2 4.6 -2.1 131.4 1.3 6.1 -4.2 19.3 2.9 2.8 14.5 2 1.9 1 6.8 2.1 13 1.2 22.8 2 14.8 5.8 4.8 -1.3 3.7 -0.2 38.3 -0.1

136.7 1.5 4.6 -1.1 132.1 1.5 6.1 -2.8 19.4 2.2 2.8 14.6 2 1.9 -0.2 6.8 2.6 13.1 4.1 22.9 1.6 14.9 2.4 4.8 -0.5 3.7 -0.3 38.5 1.1

137.2 1.7 4.6 -1 132.7 1.8 6.1 -1.9 19.5 2.8 2.9 14.7 2 1.9 1.2 6.8 1.2 13.3 4.5 23 1.6 14.9 2.4 4.8 0.4 3.7 0.9 38.6 1.4

137.9 1.8 4.6 -1 133.3 1.9 6.1 -1.1 19.6 2.7 2.9 14.8 2 1.9 2.5 6.9 1.6 13.4 4.4 23.2 1.8 15 2.6 4.7 -0.2 3.7 0.3 38.7 1.4

138.5 1.8 4.6 -0.3 133.9 1.9 6.1 -0.1 19.7 2.3 2.9 14.8 2 1.9 2.7 6.9 2.2 13.6 4.6 23.3 2.3 15.1 2 4.7 -0.5 3.7 -1.1 38.8 1.2

139.1 1.8 4.6 0 134.5 1.8 6.1 0.7 19.8 2.3 2.9 14.9 2.1 1.9 2.2 7 2.4 13.8 5 23.4 2.2 15.1 1.3 4.7 -0.5 3.7 -0.6 38.9 1.1

9343.8 249.1 1.7 134.6 2.1 2.8 1084 705 379

9413.9 250 1.6 135.2 1.4 2.8 1107 698 409

9489.3 250.8 1.5 135.8 1.6 2.8 1156 714 442

9565.9 251.4 1.3 136.4 1.7 2.9 1226 774 452

9641.1 252.1 1.2 136.9 1.7 2.9 1293 822 472

9725.1 252.7 1.1 137.4 1.6 2.9 1346 860 485

9806.6 253.4 1 138 1.6 2.8 1392 888 504

9893.1 254 1 138.5 1.5 2.8 1422 912 510

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9971.6 10055.8 10137.3 10188.6 10289.5 10358.1 254.7 255.4 256.1 256.8 257.6 258.3 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 138.9 139.4 139.9 140.4 140.9 141.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 1442 1454 1435 1414 1408 1385 930 945 946 941 942 939 513 508 489 472 467 447

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.3 2.8 22.6 23.1 26.2 1.8

5.5 6.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 3.7 23.7 23.7 27 2.9

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.5 24 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.8 23.9 28.6 3.4

6 2.9 3.7 2.3 5.7 0.8 25.3 24 29 1.4

6.6 10.8 4 2.6 6.1 7.9 27.9 25.7 31.4 8.1

7.2 8.2 4.4 2.8 6.5 5.2 29.9 26.8 33.7 7.5

7.7 6.5 4.7 3 6.7 3.7 31.3 27.4 35.1 4.2

8.1 5.8 4.9 3.2 6.9 3.3 32.6 27.8 36.2 3

8.6 5.6 5.1 3.4 7.1 3.5 34 28.4 37.4 3.3

9.1 5.9 5.4 3.6 7.4 3.8 35.6 29.2 38.7 3.6

9.6 5.8 5.7 3.9 7.7 3.8 37.2 30 40.2 3.7

139.3 1.7 4.6 0.2 134.7 1.8 6.1 0.9 19.9 2.1 2.9 15 2.1 2 2.2 7 2.4 13.9 5 23.4 2 15.1 1.2 4.7 -0.4 3.7 0.1 38.9 1

141.4 1.5 4.6 0.9 136.7 1.5 6.3 2.3 20.1 1.1 3 15.1 2.1 2 2.2 7.1 2.1 14.4 4 23.7 1.2 15.3 1.1 4.8 0.3 3.7 0.9 39.3 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

119.1 2.1 5 -3.5 114.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 16.4 0.3 1.9 13.6 0.8 2.1 0.8 6.1 0.9 10.9 7.9 18.4 2.4 11.7 5.2 3.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.6 37.1 1.2

123.3 3.5 5.3 5.5 117.9 3.4 4.7 -2.9 17.1 4.6 2.1 14.1 0.9 2.3 11.6 6.4 4.2 11.3 3.7 19.3 4.5 11.8 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.1 6.6 38.1 2.7

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.1 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.3 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.1 1.7 2 -1.2 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.2 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 2.9 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.7 38.9 -2.8

129.9 1.2 4.2 -0.2 125.7 1.3 6.2 6.3 18.1 3.7 2.7 13.8 1.6 2 -5.8 6.2 1 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3.1 3.6 5.8 37.6 -3.3

132.6 2.1 4.7 12.8 127.9 1.8 6.4 3.4 18.5 2.7 2.7 14 1.8 1.9 -4.6 6.5 4.4 12.4 4 22.2 1.6 13.7 -0.2 4.7 2.9 3.7 1.8 37.9 0.9

134.9 1.7 4.6 -0.9 130.2 1.8 6.2 -1.9 19 2.2 2.8 14.3 1.9 1.9 -1.7 6.7 3 12.8 3.1 22.6 1.5 14.5 5.7 4.8 2.2 3.7 -0.4 38.2 0.7

136.9 1.6 4.6 -1.3 132.4 1.7 6.1 -2.5 19.5 2.7 2.8 14.6 2 1.9 1.1 6.8 1.9 13.2 3.5 23 1.7 14.9 3.2 4.8 -0.4 3.7 0.2 38.5 0.9

7188.2 230.3 1.4 114.6 1.5 2.3 2662 1316 1346

7496.2 232.7 1.1 122.6 7 3 2195 1193 1002

7665.1 233.8 0.5 124.5 1.5 3.5 2377 1189 1188

7840.8 235.6 0.8 125 0.4 4 1959 1151 807

8191.8 236.8 0.5 126.5 1.2 3.7 1746 1281 465

8519.9 238.4 0.6 127.5 0.8 3.5 1883 1404 478

8827.3 240.8 1 127.8 0.2 3 2251 1478 773

9129.3 244.5 1.6 131.2 2.7 2.7 1892 1177 715

9325 248.6 1.7 134.4 2.4 2.7 1192 778 414

9605.4 251.7 1.3 136.6 1.7 2.9 1255 793 463

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

Florida & Metro Forecast

9931.8 10243.4 254.4 257.2 1 1.1 138.7 140.6 1.5 1.4 2.8 2.8 1428 1411 919 942 509 469

J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,277,997 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,203 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 178,899 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 837,964 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 66,707 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 169,224 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 654,853 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 20,622 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,284 employees • City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees

• • • •

Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees CSX – 4,400 employees Citibank (Citi-cards) – 4,200 employees Source: Jacksonville Cornerstone

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Jacksonville is expected to experience the highest growth rate of average annual wage in the state at a rate of 3.8 percent. Additionally, population and employment growth, as well as personal income growth, are expected to outpace the statewide average.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and educational and health services sectors, at average annual growth rates of 4.9 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Agencies purchase $45 million of St. Johns River • St. Johns River Water Management District is buying more than 4,000 acres of the west shore of St. Johns River in Central Florida as part of a five-year plan to acquire sensitive lands.

• The $45 million price tag will be split with the state of Florida and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resource Conservation Service, which partnered with the district’s board of governors.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 10, 2007 Hefty defense bill could bring more than $1 billion to St. Johns County • The Defense Appropriations Bill for fiscal year 2008, which passed through the U.S. House of Representatives in early August, included more than $1.1 billion for aircraft programs involving Northrop Grumman Corporation’s manufacturing facility in St. Augustine.

• Most of the funding, or about $862 million,

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ack s o n v i l l e

will be used for the research and development of a new Advanced Hawkeye the E-2D. The U.S. Navy plans on buying 75 of these new planes from Northrop Grumman. About $167 million of the funding will be spent on the unmanned aerial vehicle program known as Broad Area Maritime Surveillance.

• Northrop Grumman currently employs more than 1,000 workers at its East Coast Aviation Manufacturing Center in St. Augustine.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 10, 2007 FIS makes big acquisition • Jacksonville-based Fidelity National Information Services provides core processing and mortgage loan processing for the financial industry and other independent companies.

• FIS has recently announced an agreement to acquire EFD/eFunds Corporation in a $1.8 billion deal. EFD provides electronic funds transfer services and risk management as well as other financial services, and its shareholders will receive $36.50 in cash for each share.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 27, 2007 Armor Holdings slapped with stiff fine • Armor Holdings Inc., a Jacksonville-based defense contractor, will pay $1.1 million in civil penalties for breaching export regulations. The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security charged that Armor exported 96 shipments of crime-control items without the proper BIS licenses.

• BAE Systems acquired Armor in a $4.5 billion deal earlier this year. BAE Systems issued a written statement, explaining that the activities happened before it bought the company. The British company also stated that it takes export regulations very seriously, citing their rigorous export control system that Armor Holdings must now uphold.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, August 20, 2007

40

Florida & Metro Forecast

Jacksonville Port Authority getting state cash • The fiscal 2008 budget disbursed almost $70 million dollars among Florida’s 14 public deep water ports. Jacksonville will receive $19.9 million that must be matched. This rather large portion suggests that the rest of the state is sensitive to the strong competition Jacksonville faces in Georgia and South Carolina.

Jacksonville’s Port Authority hopes to receive a big portion of $10 million that will soon be on the block.

• The Port Authority’s top priorities for the money include the container terminal under construction at Dames Point and improvements to the site leased by Southeast Toyota Distributors in the Talleyrand Marine Terminal.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 1, 2007

J ack s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

60000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

55000.0 50000.0 45000.0 40000.0 35000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

30000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

650.0

6.0%

600.0

4.0%

550.0

2.0%

500.0 450.0

2.0

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 700.0

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.6 6.1 28.7 20.9 42.1 3.8 37.6 31.9 43.4 3.4

50.3 6.1 29.1 21.2 42.6 3.2 38 32.1 43.8 3.5

51.1 5.6 29.5 21.6 43 3.1 38.3 32.3 44.3 3.1

51.9 6 29.9 22 43.5 4.1 38.7 32.4 44.7 3.8

52.7 6.4 30.3 22.4 43.9 4.4 39.1 32.6 45.1 3.9

53.7 6.6 30.8 22.9 44.5 4.5 39.6 32.8 45.5 3.8

54.6 6.9 31.3 23.3 45.1 4.8 40.1 33.1 46 3.9

55.6 7.2 31.9 23.8 45.7 5.1 40.7 33.4 46.4 3.9

56.6 7.4 32.4 24.2 46.3 5.4 41.2 33.7 46.9 4

57.6 7.4 33 24.7 46.9 5.4 41.7 34 47.4 4.1

58.6 7.3 33.5 25.1 47.5 5.2 42.2 34.2 47.9 4.1

59.5 7 34 25.5 48 5.1 42.7 34.5 48.3 4.1

60.5 6.8 34.5 26 48.6 4.9 43.2 34.7 48.8 4

61.4 6.6 35 26.4 49.1 4.7 43.7 34.9 49.3 4

648.1 1.6 31.3 -1.4 616.8 1.8 48.8 -1.6 142.3 2.8 30.6 77.7 34 11.1 -0.5 60.9 0.4 101.3 3.5 79.9 1.8 67 2.1 28.9 0.7 17.3 0.8 59.2 1.8

652.3 2 31.2 -1.3 621.1 2.2 49.1 -0.6 143.2 2.8 30.8 78.2 34.2 11.1 0.4 61.3 1.1 103.1 4.8 80.4 2 67.3 2.3 28.9 0.3 17.3 0.3 59.5 1.9

656.9 2.4 31.2 -0.8 625.7 2.5 49.3 0.8 143.9 2.5 31.1 78.6 34.4 11.1 0.8 61.7 1.8 105.2 6.3 80.8 2.3 67.7 1.9 28.9 0.2 17.3 0 59.8 1.9

661.7 2.7 31.2 -0.5 630.6 2.8 49.5 1.6 145 2.5 31.3 79.2 34.7 11.1 0.5 62 2.3 107.4 7.6 81.3 2.4 67.8 1.2 29 0.2 17.3 -0.1 60.1 2

666.4 2.8 31.2 -0.3 635.2 3 50 2.3 145.9 2.5 31.5 79.5 35.1 11.2 0.2 62.5 2.6 109.6 8.2 81.7 2.3 67.7 1.1 29.1 0.4 17.3 -0.1 60.4 2

670.8 2.8 31.2 0 639.6 3 50.4 2.8 146.7 2.4 31.7 79.8 35.4 11.2 0.3 62.9 2.7 111.2 8 82.1 2.1 68 1 29.1 0.6 17.5 1 60.6 1.9

675.1 2.8 31.2 0.1 643.8 2.9 50.9 3.2 147 2.2 31.9 79.9 35.6 11.2 0.6 63.3 2.6 112.8 7.2 82.4 1.9 68.3 0.9 29.1 0.7 18 4.4 60.9 1.8

678.3 2.5 31.2 0.1 647 2.6 51.3 3.5 147.7 1.9 32.2 80.1 35.9 11.2 0.8 63.5 2.4 114.7 6.8 82.6 1.6 68.7 1.3 29.2 0.8 17 -1.8 61.1 1.7

682.7 2.4 31.2 0.1 651.5 2.6 51.6 3.3 148.4 1.7 32.4 80.3 36.2 11.3 0.9 63.9 2.2 116.4 6.2 82.9 1.4 69 1.9 29.3 1 17.4 0.4 61.4 1.6

685.9 2.2 31.2 0.1 654.6 2.3 51.9 2.9 149 1.6 32.5 80.5 36.5 11.3 1 64.2 2 117.3 5.5 83.1 1.2 69.4 2 29.5 1.3 17.4 0 61.6 1.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

637.7 1.9 31.7 -4.5 605.9 2.2 49.6 -1 138.4 1.1 29.7 75.8 33.1 11.2 -0.9 60.7 0.6 97.9 2.4 78.5 5 65.6 4.7 28.7 5.6 17.2 1.3 58.2 2.2

639.4 1.2 31.6 -3.1 607.8 1.5 49.3 -2.9 139.3 1.3 29.9 76.1 33.4 11.1 -1.8 60.6 0.6 98.3 0.7 78.8 4 65.8 3.9 28.8 4.5 17.2 0.7 58.4 1.6

641.6 1.2 31.4 -3.4 610.2 1.4 48.9 -2.5 140.5 2.2 30.2 76.7 33.6 11 -3 60.6 0.1 99 0.9 79 2.7 66.4 3.2 28.9 3.4 17.3 0.5 58.7 1.8

644.6 1.4 31.3 -1.9 613.3 1.5 48.8 -1.6 141.4 2.5 30.4 77.2 33.8 11.1 -1 60.7 -0.3 99.8 1.9 79.4 2 66.9 2.9 28.9 1.7 17.3 1.1 58.9 1.5

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50438.7 50801.9 51199.3 51629.3 1318.1 1325.8 1333.4 1340.9 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 665.8 668.7 671.5 674.4 2.3 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 11630 11424 11395 11892 8797 8519 8484 8961 2833 2905 2911 2931

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

Florida & Metro Forecast

52098 52653.3 53223.1 53801.7 54360.5 54936.3 55469.5 55946.1 56520.2 56967.8 1348.2 1355.2 1362 1368.6 1375 1381.4 1387.9 1394.2 1400.5 1406.7 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 677.3 680.3 683.2 686 688.7 691.2 694 696.7 699.2 701.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 12152 12246 12327 12510 12787 12906 12877 12852 12888 12861 9137 9217 9251 9374 9551 9687 9716 9734 9777 9767 3015 3029 3076 3136 3236 3219 3161 3118 3110 3094

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

30.3 4.7 17.8 12.5 31.1 3 27.3 27.9 31.3 1.4

33.1 9.4 19.3 13.8 33.1 6.7 29.3 29.4 32.8 4.7

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.4 28.8 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.9 34.8 4.3

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3 35.2 3.8 31 29.4 37 6.4

40.3 8.5 23.4 17 37.2 5.7 32.9 30.4 38.4 3.9

42.8 6.1 24.9 17.9 38.4 3.1 34.2 30.7 39.6 2.9

46.3 8.2 27.1 19.2 40.4 5.4 36.1 31.5 41.8 5.7

49.3 6.5 28.6 20.7 42.1 4 37.5 32 43.3 3.5

52.3 6.1 30.1 22.2 43.7 4 38.9 32.5 44.9 3.6

56.1 7.2 32.1 24 46 5.2 40.9 33.5 46.7 4

60 6.9 34.3 25.8 48.3 5 42.9 34.6 48.6 4.1

564.6 0.5 33.4 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.4 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.6 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.6 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.1 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 67.9 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

605.1 4 33.5 0.8 571.6 4.2 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.5 89.4 4.1 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.2 57.1 3

624.4 3.2 33.2 -1.1 591.2 3.4 49.9 10 136.2 2.6 29.2 74.8 32.2 11.4 -4.3 60.3 1.7 95.5 6.8 74.4 4.4 62.3 3.2 27.2 1.7 17 -2.2 56.9 -0.2

636.8 2 32 -3.7 604.8 2.3 49.7 -0.5 138.3 1.5 29.5 75.7 33.1 11.2 -1.6 60.7 0.6 98.1 2.7 78 4.9 65.2 4.6 28.5 4.6 17.2 1 58.1 2

646.7 1.5 31.3 -2 615.3 1.7 48.9 -1.6 141.8 2.6 30.5 77.5 33.9 11.1 -1 60.9 0.3 100.8 2.8 79.7 2.1 66.9 2.6 28.9 1.5 17.3 0.7 59.1 1.7

664 2.7 31.2 -0.4 632.8 2.8 49.8 1.9 145.4 2.5 31.4 79.3 34.9 11.1 0.4 62.3 2.3 108.4 7.5 81.5 2.3 67.8 1.3 29 0.4 17.3 0.2 60.2 2

680.5 2.5 31.2 0.1 649.2 2.6 51.4 3.2 148 1.8 32.2 80.2 36 11.2 0.8 63.7 2.3 115.3 6.4 82.7 1.5 68.8 1.5 29.3 1 17.4 0.7 61.2 1.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

543.7 2.4 38.5 -0.5 505.2 2.7 31.3 1.6 124.3 1.9 24.5 67.7 32 14.4 7.3 55.4 3.7 80.9 5.9 58.9 2.2 49 3.3 22.7 1.5 18 -3.5 50.3 0.6

565.6 4 39.5 2.4 526.1 4.1 32.6 4.2 129.7 4.4 26.3 70.5 32.9 15.3 6.3 56.5 2 89.1 10.2 59.6 1.2 50.2 2.3 23.8 4.7 17.8 -1.1 51.5 2.4

567 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.8 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.8 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

37491.7 39060.2 39806.2 40520.3 42386.1 44308.8 46872.8 48897.8 50301.7 1112.2 1129.4 1151.4 1175.5 1198.5 1225.2 1251.8 1282.1 1314.2 1.4 1.5 2 2.1 2 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 577.1 589.4 595.6 597.5 601.7 612.1 627 649 664.8 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.5 2.4 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.3 5 4.6 3.8 3.3 3.5 11325 10919 12766 14505 15375 18227 24230 16835 12003 8549 8249 10070 11273 13042 14127 18976 12487 8846 2776 2669 2696 3231 2333 4100 5254 4348 3157

51895 54080.4 56225.9 1344.4 1371.8 1397.3 2.3 2 1.9 675.9 687.3 697.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 11921 12632 12870 8950 9466 9749 2971 3167 3121

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County.

It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

Lakeland is expected to experience moderate personal income and wage rate growth at average annual rates of 6.5 percent and 3.4 percent, respectively. Employment growth is expected to be consistent with the statewide average, while the area is expected to be one of the leaders in the state in population growth at a 2.9 percent average annual growth.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and federal sectors, at average annual growth rates of 3.6 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 561,606 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,007 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,704 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,634 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 3,800 employees • GEICO – 2,130 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,200 employees • GC Services – 1,200 employees • Watkins Motor Lines – 848 employees • Rooms To Go – 800 employees • Summit Consulting – 693 employees • ICT Group – 500 employees • McDonald Construction Corp. – 500 employees • Key Safety Systems, Inc. – 500 employees Source: Lakeland Area Chamber of Commerce

44

Florida & Metro Forecast

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Tax cuts will cost Polk $13.8 million • Due to a decline in property taxes collected in Polk County, it needs to cut $13.8 million in government services from its general fund of $205 million for next year’s budget.

• Some of the services that could lose some of their support include Emergency Medical Services, the Sheriff’s Office, community parks, and libraries, although no specific cuts have been made yet.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 10, 2007 Existing home sales down 40 percent • Polk County’s sales of existing homes totaled 278 in July, as opposed to 462 in July 2006, marking a 40 percent decline. Median home prices dropped 3 percent from a year ago.

• Similarly, June 2007 saw 333 total sales of existing homes as opposed to 554 in June 2006, also a 40 percent decline. Median home prices also dropped 5 percent from the previous year.

• July marks the fourteenth consecutive drop in existing home sales from a year ago, which is a record since at least 1994 when the Ledger first began tracking home sales.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 28, 2007

Lake l a n d

Polk has $1 billion for school projects • Polk County, now equipped with $1 billion to spend on school projects, will be funding new schools and classrooms over the next five years.

• The county currently has a “Polk Promise” wish list of more than 152 school projects that it promised to meet in 2002, and it now has the means to achieve all but two of these goals.

• The money came from a variety of sources, including borrowed money, a half-cent sales tax, new-home impact fees, and class-size reduction funds.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, June 18, 2007 Lakeland Electric reducing residential bills • The Lakeland City Utility Committee has decided to decrease customers’ residential energy bills by $3 per 1,000 kWh, which accounts for a monthly savings of $3.90 for the average customer using 1,300 kWh. • The reduction is set to occur on September 4, if all goes well.

• Lakeland Electric serves more than 100,000 customers in the Lakeland area.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 20, 2007 Arson leaves big economic impact • Bartow’s Flanders Precisionaire manufacturing plant suffered a fire, and authorities suspect arson.

• Nearly 400 people lost their jobs because of the fire, and property damages were estimated at $20 million, making it one of the most economically detrimental fires in Bartow’s history. No one was hurt.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, July 17, 2007 Lakeland gets infrastructure improvement money • Lakeland has received an $11.8 million lowinterest loan for wastewater management from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

• The loan will help support West Lakeland, an industrialized area, with its high-strength waste.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, August 10, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Lake l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent)

8.0%

0.5

1.0

22000.0

6.0%

16000.0

5.0%

14000.0 12000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment 240.0

(Thousands)

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0%

200.0

2.0%

180.0

46

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

220.0

160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

20000.0 18000.0

3.0%

2.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product

7.0%

4.0%

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 6.2 8.1 9.8 15.2 3.9 30.5 25.9 36.1 3.9

18.2 6.6 8.2 10 15.4 3.7 30.8 26 36.4 3.3

18.5 6 8.3 10.2 15.6 3.5 31 26.1 36.7 2.7

18.8 6.3 8.5 10.3 15.8 4.3 31.3 26.2 37 3.5

19.1 6.5 8.6 10.5 15.9 4.5 31.5 26.3 37.3 3.2

19.4 6.5 8.7 10.7 16.1 4.4 31.8 26.4 37.6 3.2

19.7 6.6 8.8 10.9 16.3 4.5 32.1 26.5 37.9 3.3

20.1 6.8 8.9 11.1 16.5 4.7 32.5 26.7 38.3 3.4

20.4 6.9 9.1 11.3 16.7 4.9 32.8 26.8 38.6 3.5

20.8 6.9 9.2 11.6 16.9 4.9 33.2 27 38.9 3.6

21.1 6.8 9.3 11.7 17.1 4.8 33.5 27.1 39.3 3.6

21.4 6.5 9.5 11.9 17.3 4.6 33.8 27.3 39.6 3.6

21.7 6.3 9.6 12.1 17.4 4.5 34.2 27.5 40 3.5

22 6.1 9.7 12.3 17.6 4.2 34.6 27.6 40.3 3.5

228.6 2.1 17.1 -1.4 211.5 2.4 15.4 -2.7 51.6 3.5 11.2 27.3 13.2 2.4 1.1 12 1.3 43.1 4.3 28.8 2 18.1 2.5 10.1 0.2 1.4 2.3 28.7 2

229.9 2.2 17.1 -1.3 212.9 2.4 15.4 -1.8 52 3.5 11.3 27.5 13.3 2.4 2.4 12.1 1.6 43.5 4.1 28.9 2.1 18.2 2.5 10 -0.1 1.4 2 28.8 2.1

231.3 2.2 17.1 -0.7 214.2 2.5 15.4 -0.9 52.4 3 11.3 27.7 13.4 2.4 2.6 12.2 2.3 44.1 4.3 29.1 2.7 18.3 1.9 10 -0.3 1.4 -2.5 29 2

232.8 2.4 17.1 -0.3 215.7 2.6 15.4 -0.1 52.8 3.1 11.4 27.9 13.6 2.5 2.1 12.2 2.5 44.7 4.8 29.3 2.6 18.3 1.2 10 -0.3 1.4 -0.1 29.1 1.9

234.1 2.4 17.1 0.1 217 2.6 15.5 0.5 53.2 3 11.5 28 13.8 2.5 1.8 12.3 2.5 45.2 5 29.4 2.3 18.3 1.1 10 -0.2 1.4 2.2 29.2 1.8

235.3 2.3 17.1 0.4 218.2 2.5 15.6 1.2 53.5 2.7 11.6 28.1 14 2.5 1.9 12.4 2.5 45.6 4.7 29.5 2 18.3 0.8 10 0.1 1.5 5.5 29.3 1.7

236.5 2.2 17.1 0.6 219.3 2.4 15.6 1.6 53.6 2.4 11.7 28.1 14.1 2.5 2.2 12.5 2.4 45.9 4 29.6 1.7 18.4 0.7 10 0.2 1.7 23.2 29.4 1.6

237.6 2 17.2 0.5 220.4 2.2 15.7 1.8 53.9 2.1 11.8 28.2 14.2 2.5 2.4 12.5 2.3 46.4 3.8 29.8 1.6 18.5 1.1 10.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 29.6 1.6

238.8 2 17.2 0.5 221.6 2.1 15.8 1.7 54.2 1.9 11.9 28.2 14.4 2.5 2.3 12.6 2.1 46.9 3.7 29.8 1.5 18.6 1.6 10.1 0.4 1.5 6.7 29.7 1.6

239.7 1.9 17.2 0.3 222.5 2 15.8 1.2 54.4 1.8 11.9 28.3 14.5 2.5 2.3 12.6 1.9 47.2 3.5 29.9 1.5 18.6 1.6 10.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 29.8 1.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

224 1.3 17.3 -2.4 206.6 1.6 15.8 -5.6 49.9 1.3 10.8 26.6 12.6 2.4 -2.7 11.9 3.3 41.3 0.3 28.2 5.7 17.6 2.4 10 1.3 1.4 -2.6 28.1 4.1

225.1 1.7 17.3 -1.8 207.8 2 15.7 -5.5 50.3 3.1 10.9 26.7 12.7 2.4 -3.6 11.9 4 41.8 0.4 28.3 5 17.7 2.8 10.1 1.3 1.4 -1.3 28.2 4

226.2 1.7 17.2 -2.1 209.1 2 15.5 -6.1 50.8 2.6 11 26.9 12.9 2.4 -1.9 11.9 2.8 42.3 3.3 28.4 3.8 17.9 2.7 10.1 0.8 1.4 -2 28.4 2.2

227.4 1.8 17.1 -1.4 210.3 2.1 15.4 -3.6 51.2 3.1 11.1 27.1 13 2.4 -0.3 11.9 2.7 42.7 3.8 28.6 2 18.1 2.6 10.1 -0.6 1.4 0.3 28.5 1.5

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17843.8 18006.2 18175.7 18340.9 18504.8 18690.8 587.2 592 596.7 601.2 605.6 609.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3 275.7 277.3 278.7 280.2 281.6 282.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2 4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4443 4465 4577 4900 5213 5443 4097 4072 4115 4380 4619 4829 346 393 462 520 593 614

18871 19061.2 19234.6 19418.1 19604.3 19768.4 19936.1 20074.2 614 617.9 621.7 625.4 628.6 631.7 634.4 636.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 284.2 285.5 286.7 288 289.2 290.5 291.8 293 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 4.1 4.1 4 4 4 4 4 4 5607 5752 5872 5922 5910 5833 5812 5740 4975 5107 5202 5277 5275 5235 5218 5188 632 645 669 645 635 599 594 552

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 11.3 3.9 23.1 23.7 28.5 2.7

11.5 4.1 5.5 6 11.5 1.6 23.7 23.7 29.5 3.3

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24 30.5 1.7

13.1 4.7 6 7 12.4 2.7 25.5 24.1 31.7 3.8

14.4 10.2 6.5 7.9 13.3 7.3 27.3 25.2 32.3 1.8

15.7 8.9 7.2 8.5 14 5.9 28.8 25.8 33.5 3.7

16.8 7 7.7 9.1 14.6 4.1 29.7 25.9 34.8 4

17.8 6.4 8.1 9.7 15.2 3.9 30.5 26 36 3.4

19 6.3 8.5 10.4 15.8 4.2 31.4 26.3 37.2 3.2

20.2 6.8 9 11.2 16.6 4.7 32.7 26.8 38.4 3.4

21.5 6.4 9.5 12 17.3 4.5 34 27.4 39.8 3.5

189.6 1 18.1 -1.8 171.5 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 31.2 18.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.7

200.4 5.7 18.2 0.6 182.2 6.3 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 36.5 16.9 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.5 25.5 1

212.9 6.2 18.3 0.3 194.6 6.8 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.8 39 6.9 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 1.9

219.9 3.3 17.9 -1.9 202 3.8 16.7 2.9 49 3 10.6 26.2 12.3 2.4 7.3 11.4 2.9 40.5 4 26.6 4 17.1 3.6 9.9 9.8 1.4 -0.6 26.9 3.4

223.7 1.7 17.4 -3.1 206.4 2.2 16 -4 49.8 1.7 10.8 26.6 12.5 2.4 -1.8 11.7 2.8 41.3 1.9 28 5.2 17.6 3 10 1.8 1.4 0.9 28.1 4.3

228 1.9 17.1 -1.5 210.9 2.2 15.4 -3.6 51.4 3.2 11.1 27.2 13.1 2.4 0.3 12 2.1 42.9 3.9 28.6 2.4 18.1 2.6 10.1 0.1 1.4 0.6 28.6 2

233.4 2.3 17.1 -0.1 216.3 2.5 15.5 0.2 52.9 3 11.5 27.9 13.7 2.5 2.1 12.3 2.5 44.9 4.7 29.3 2.4 18.3 1.3 10 -0.2 1.4 1.3 29.1 1.9

238.1 2 17.2 0.5 221 2.2 15.7 1.6 54 2.1 11.8 28.2 14.3 2.5 2.3 12.5 2.2 46.6 3.8 29.8 1.6 18.5 1.2 10.1 0.4 1.5 9 29.6 1.6

12254.9 12718.7 13122.7 13395.9 14099.4 15125.4 16461.5 17269.2 479.1 486.3 493 501.3 512 526.1 544.4 564.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.6 209.9 231.2 236.2 238.1 240.6 249.3 259.8 269.1 1.2 10.2 2.1 0.8 1.1 3.6 4.2 3.6 5.1 4.1 5 5.8 5.5 4.9 4 3.5 3985 4900 4616 5022 6903 9250 13043 9650 3122 3640 4014 4571 6271 8462 11909 8437 863 1260 602 451 632 789 1134 1213

17784 584.7 3.6 275.2 2.3 3.9 4868 4469 399

18428 19146.2 19845.8 603.3 619.7 632.9 3.2 2.7 2.1 280.9 286.1 291.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 4.1 4.1 4 5033 5788 5824 4486 5140 5229 548 648 595

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

179.5 1.9 21.3 -0.7 158.2 2.2 13.6 -4.2 43.6 3.4 7.9 26.1 9.5 2.1 5.5 8.8 2.5 21 6.7 21.3 2.5 14.4 4.7 7.1 -3.2 1.4 1.7 24.8 -0.1

185.8 3.5 20.2 -5 165.6 4.7 13.8 1.5 45.1 3.3 8.1 27.3 9.7 2.3 11.9 9.6 8.5 23.4 11.1 22.3 5 14.9 3.2 7.2 1.3 1.6 15 25.3 2.1

188.1 1.2 18.9 -6.7 169.3 2.2 14 1.4 45.3 0.6 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 26 11.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.6 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -1.9

187.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 169.2 0 13.6 -2.8 44 -2.9 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 26.4 1.5 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h P r o fi l e s The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,463,857 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,402,208 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,787,636 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,274,013 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,838,810 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 88,079 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees • University of Miami – 9,367 employees

• American Airlines – 9,000 employees • United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees • BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Miami – Fort Lauderdale – Miami Beach MSA is expected to maintain high rankings in many of the state’s key economic indicators, ranking near the top in per capita personal income level, average annual wage, and gross metropolitan product. While the area will experience a decline in housing starts, this is a reflection of the slowing housing market.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and financial sectors, at average annual growth rates of 5.3 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Boca equity firm to swallow 630 Boston Market restaurants • Sun Capital, a Boca-based private equity firm, will acquire all 630 Boston Market restaurants from McDonalds Corporation. The company is dropping Boston Market, which was originally purchased by McDonalds in order to diversify, so that it can expand internationally.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, August 7, 2007 Boom of condo crash loudest in Miami • Miami is expected to experience one of the worst condominium market crashes in the country.

The area already has a glut of condos — 23,000 condos are on the market, and 25,000 new condos will be released to the public in the coming months.

• The crash was caused primarily by amateur speculation by investors who were expecting a quick and easy profit. With the downturn in the market, many investors are facing foreclosure, which will exacerbate the bust.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, August 27, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

FIU focus on community • FIU’s first class in its new medical school will take a more hands-on approach to medical care in the community.

• FIU will institute a community involvement program in which medical students will perform a detailed study of a low-income family’s medical history and then provide medical services for that family.

Source: Miami Herald, August 5, 2007 South Florida tops the list in cost of living increase • South Florida experienced the highest cost of living increase as reflected by the consumer price index. Compared to last year’s values, the level of prices for items such as housing, food, and clothing have increased by 4.4 percent.

• This increase is the highest in the country; Chicago comes in second with a 3.6% increase over last year’s price levels.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, July 23, 2007 Fort Lauderdale’s Riverside Hotel plans another major expansion • Fort Lauderdale’s historic Riverside hotel on Las Olas Blvd is planning another major expansion.

The addition will include 135 rooms, a new spa, exercise rooms, and a riverfront banquet hall.

• Although the expansion of the hotel will displace some merchants on the trademark Fort. Lauderdale shopping boulevard, many merchants are excited about the potential for increased visitors.

Source: Sun-Sentinel, July 9, 2007

50

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F o r t Lau d e r d a l e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M iami B eac h Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 220000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0

6.0%

180000.0

5.0%

160000.0

4.0% 3.0%

0.3

140000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

120000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

230 5.4 113.4 116.6 195.3 3.2 41.6 35.4 46 3.5

233.2 5.8 114.7 118.5 197.4 3 42.1 35.7 46.4 3.5

236.5 5.4 116.3 120.3 199.3 2.9 42.7 35.9 46.9 3

240.1 5.7 117.8 122.3 201.2 3.8 43.2 36.2 47.3 3.7

243.7 5.9 119.4 124.3 203 4 43.7 36.4 47.7 3.6

247.6 6.2 121.2 126.4 205.4 4.1 44.3 36.8 48.1 3.6

251.8 6.4 123.2 128.6 208 4.4 44.9 37.1 48.6 3.6

256.1 6.7 125.2 131 210.5 4.6 45.6 37.4 49 3.7

260.3 6.8 127.1 133.2 212.8 4.8 46.2 37.7 49.5 3.8

264.4 6.8 129.1 135.4 215.3 4.8 46.7 38.1 50 3.9

268.5 6.7 131.1 137.4 217.6 4.6 47.3 38.3 50.5 3.9

272.8 6.5 133.1 139.8 220.1 4.6 47.9 38.6 50.9 3.9

276.7 6.3 134.9 141.9 222.3 4.4 48.4 38.9 51.4 3.8

280.6 6.1 136.6 144.1 224.3 4.2 48.9 39.1 51.8 3.8

2491.7 1.6 95.9 -2.1 2395.7 1.8 156.5 -2.9 560.4 1.9 149.2 313.5 97.9 53.4 -0.6 187.6 0.9 430.3 5.5 317.3 1.1 260.4 1.1 105.7 1.1 34.5 1.4 289.6 1.5

2507.4 2 95.5 -2 2411.8 2.2 157 -1.8 562.9 1.9 149.6 315 98.6 53.4 0.2 188.7 1.5 439 6.6 318.5 1.2 261.3 1.4 105.7 0.7 34.6 1 290.8 1.6

2523.8 2.3 95.3 -1.4 2428.5 2.4 157.5 -0.2 565 1.7 150 316.3 99.4 53.3 0.4 190 2 448.5 7.7 319.7 1.5 262.2 1.1 105.7 0.4 34.6 0.7 292 1.6

2540.9 2.5 95.1 -1.2 2445.7 2.7 158.2 0.8 568 1.8 150.7 318 100.4 53.3 0.2 191.1 2.3 458.4 8.6 321 1.5 262.2 0.5 105.9 0.4 34.6 0.5 293 1.6

2556.5 2.6 95 -0.9 2461.4 2.7 159.4 1.8 570.7 1.8 151.5 318.9 101.5 53.5 0.1 192.3 2.5 467.2 8.6 321.9 1.5 261.7 0.5 106.1 0.4 34.7 0.4 294 1.5

2570.9 2.5 95 -0.6 2475.9 2.7 160.8 2.4 572.9 1.8 152.2 319.6 102.4 53.6 0.4 193.4 2.5 473.9 8 322.7 1.3 262.3 0.4 106.3 0.6 35 1.2 295 1.4

2585.1 2.4 94.9 -0.4 2490.2 2.5 162.1 2.9 573.9 1.6 152.8 319.6 103.2 53.7 0.8 194.3 2.3 480.3 7.1 323.4 1.1 263.2 0.4 106.4 0.6 36.9 6.8 295.9 1.3

2600.8 2.4 94.8 -0.4 2506 2.5 163.3 3.2 575.9 1.4 153.6 320.2 104.1 53.9 1 195 2.1 488.4 6.5 323.8 0.9 264.4 0.8 106.6 0.7 37.8 9.3 296.8 1.3

2612.3 2.2 94.7 -0.3 2517.6 2.3 164.3 3.1 578.1 1.3 154.3 320.8 105.1 54.1 1.2 195.7 1.8 495.3 6 324.2 0.7 265.5 1.4 107 0.8 35.6 2.7 297.8 1.3

2621.9 2 94.6 -0.4 2527.3 2.1 164.9 2.6 580.1 1.2 154.9 321.3 105.9 54.3 1.3 196.3 1.5 499.7 5.4 324.4 0.5 266.6 1.7 107.4 1.1 34.9 -0.3 298.7 1.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2451.9 1.3 97.9 -1.9 2353.9 1.4 161.2 -0.3 550 1.9 147.7 308 94.8 53.7 -0.4 185.9 2 407.9 2.2 313.7 3.1 257.5 2.6 104.6 2.3 34 0.2 285.3 -2.6

2458.5 1.1 97.5 -2.4 2361 1.3 159.9 -1.6 552.2 1.8 148 308.6 95.6 53.3 -0.7 185.9 1 411.9 2.4 314.8 2.5 257.6 1.5 105 1.3 34.2 0.5 286.3 -0.7

2467.3 1.2 96.6 -2.4 2370.7 1.3 157.9 -2.9 555.6 1.6 148.5 310.7 96.6 53.1 -1.3 186.2 0.3 416.6 3.3 315.1 2.4 259.3 1.8 105.3 2.5 34.3 0.7 287.4 -0.4

2478.2 1.4 96.2 -2.6 2382 1.6 156.9 -2.6 557.8 1.5 148.8 312.2 97.2 53.2 -0.7 186.7 0.3 422 4 316.1 1.6 260.8 1.8 105.5 2.1 34.4 1.4 288.5 1.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

188847 190108 191501 192962 194612 196555 198538 200531 202411 204373 206320 208339 209981 211413 5522.7 5534 5546.1 5559.3 5573.2 5588.3 5604.6 5622 5639.8 5658.3 5677.4 5697.1 5716.3 5736.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 2828.1 2836.7 2846.4 2855.9 2865.1 2875.2 2886 2897.9 2909.7 2921.3 2932.6 2943.4 2953.8 2964.2 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 16290 16609 17085 18824 20431 21556 22656 23653 24721 25466 25906 26105 26515 26569 8905 8797 8899 10413 11424 12289 13028 13684 14249 14728 15134 15314 15593 15762 7385 7812 8186 8411 9007 9266 9628 9969 10472 10738 10772 10790 10922 10807

*Quarterly at an annual rate

52

Florida & Metro Forecast

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

144.7 4.9 71.4 73.3 148.3 3.2 29.3 30 33.9 5

157 8.5 77.8 79.3 157 5.9 31.2 31.2 35.7 5.1

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 31.9 31.3 36.8 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.5 31.4 37.8 2.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4 164.8 0.5 32.9 31.2 39.2 3.8

190.4 9.4 93.4 97 175.7 6.6 35.5 32.8 40.6 3.6

203.5 6.8 100.8 102.7 182.5 3.9 37.5 33.6 42.2 4

216.5 6.4 107.8 108.7 189 3.6 39.6 34.6 44.4 5

228.7 5.6 112.9 115.8 195 3.2 41.5 35.4 45.9 3.4

242 5.8 118.7 123.3 202.2 3.7 43.5 36.3 47.5 3.5

258.2 6.7 126.1 132 211.6 4.7 45.8 37.6 49.3 3.8

274.7 6.4 133.9 140.8 221.1 4.5 48.1 38.7 51.2 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2090.1 1.8 138.7 -2.7 1951.4 2.1 108.4 4.1 512.5 2.4 119.3 292.1 101.1 56.2 6.2 155.3 -0.7 283.4 5.6 253.2 0.7 211.3 0.9 92.9 1.4 31.3 0.6 246.9 0.9

2167 3.7 133.4 -3.8 2033.5 4.2 117 7.9 521.4 1.7 123.8 296.7 100.9 61.7 9.9 157.5 1.4 313.5 10.6 256.5 1.3 219.3 3.8 95.9 3.2 32.8 4.7 257.9 4.4

2213.1 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2090.2 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 338.9 8.1 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

2210.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2097.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 341 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.5 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.8 2.5

2218.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2114.7 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 344.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2285.3 3 100.8 -2.5 2184.6 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.3 284.9 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 368.8 7.1 292.8 3.4 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.9 0.9

2372.1 3.8 101.1 0.3 2271 4 145.3 12.3 529.4 2.5 140.8 293.3 95.3 55.9 -1.1 177.8 4.8 397.3 7.7 300.8 2.7 247 3 98.6 1.3 34.5 1 284.4 1.6

2416.8 1.9 100.4 -0.7 2316.5 2 160.6 10.6 540.9 2.2 143.8 301.9 95.3 54 -3.4 182.8 2.8 399.9 0.7 304.7 1.3 251.1 1.6 101.5 3 34.1 -1.3 286.8 0.9

2448.4 1.3 98.3 -2.1 2350.1 1.4 161.2 0.4 549.6 1.6 147.3 307.6 94.8 53.6 -0.8 185.9 1.7 407.2 1.8 311.8 2.3 256.5 2.1 103.9 2.4 34.1 0 286.2 -0.2

2486.1 1.5 96.1 -2.3 2390.1 1.7 157.1 -2.6 559.1 1.7 149 312.9 97.6 53.3 -0.6 187.3 0.8 427 4.8 316.7 1.6 260.5 1.5 105.6 1.6 34.5 1.1 289.1 1

2548 2.5 95.1 -1 2452.9 2.6 159 1.2 569.2 1.8 151.1 318.2 100.9 53.4 0.3 191.7 2.3 462 8.2 321.3 1.4 262.1 0.6 106 0.4 34.7 0.7 293.5 1.5

2605 2.2 94.8 -0.4 2510.3 2.3 163.6 2.9 577 1.4 153.9 320.5 104.6 54 1.1 195.4 1.9 490.9 6.3 324 0.8 264.9 1.1 106.9 0.8 36.3 4.6 297.3 1.3

139368 4944.7 2 2433.2 0.7 5.2 36342 22865 13477

144877 5040.1 1.9 2500.4 2.8 4.4 34456 22853 11602

150557 5130.3 1.8 2545.7 1.8 5.3 36290 24052 12237

153879 5216.9 1.7 2573.3 1.1 6.2 38407 22356 16051

159876 5285.4 1.3 2593.4 0.8 5.7 38960 23961 14999

167433 5359.8 1.4 2637.6 1.7 5.1 41565 24128 17437

177798 5427.3 1.3 2706.7 2.6 4.1 42321 22932 19389

183835 5469.9 0.8 2764.2 2.1 3.5 32419 16070 16348

188301 5516.8 0.9 2823.1 2.1 3.5 17098 9062 8037

193907 5566.7 0.9 2860.6 1.3 3.8 19474 10756 8718

201463 5631.2 1.2 2903.7 1.5 3.7 24124 13922 10202

209013 5706.7 1.3 2948.5 1.5 3.8 26274 15451 10823

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples – Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples – Marco Island MSA will experience some of the strongest gains relative to other Florida metropolitan areas. The area is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate of personal income as well as the highest level of per-capita income.

Additionally the area will experience very strong growth in average annual wage, and it will be one of few areas to experience positive housing starts.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and financial sectors, at average annual growth rates of 4.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 314,649 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 155,968 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.4%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,763 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

54

Florida & Metro Forecast

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Some coastal businesses forced to do without business interruption insurance • Due to the severity of hurricane damage along the coast of Florida in recent years, insurance companies are now either limiting or completely rejecting business interruption coverage for businesses that operate in high-risk areas.

• This inability to get coverage has made some Naples business owners consider closing some of their stores or, at least, reducing their inventory during hurricane season.

• Business interruption insurance is considered by some owners as the most important form of coverage, and the lack of it is changing the condition of business.

Source: Naples Daily News, July 23, 2007 NCH Healthcare named a top hospital • Thomas Healthcare’s rankings of 2,897 hospitals nationwide have ranked NCH Healthcare in the top 100 hospitals for performance improvement in the country over the past five years.

• Criteria considered in the ranking include: patient mortality, medical complications, patient safety, length of stay, expenses, profitability, cashto-debt ratio, and patient volume growth.

• NCH Healthcare serves Collier County and Southwest Florida with dozens of locations.

Source: Naples Daily News, August 8, 2007

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Property tax cutback worse for Marco Island than expected; Collier’s tax cut exactly as planned • Collier County’s official tax cut is set as 9 percent, meaning about $45.5 million will be cut from the general fund as well as some other funds, as expected.

• Marco Island, however, expected a 7 percent tax cut before the official 9 percent figure was released, causing the area to incur about $1.25 million more in tax cuts than expected.

• In addition to more cuts, the area was restricted to 2006 levels.

Source: Marco Eagle, July 14, 2007 Collier school district to spend $99 million for new schools, renovations • The Collier County School Board has voted to approve a $99 million loan in certificates of participation for the county’s school district development of current and future schools.

• This loan will be used to finance three completely new school buildings and to renovate two existing ones.

Source: Naples Daily News, July 8, 2007 Area economy got $241 million boost from FGCU • According to an overall economic impact study, Florida Gulf Coast University had a $241 million impact on the economies of Collier, Charlotte, Glades, Henry, and Lee counties, creating 2,586 jobs.

• Some sources of the economic impact include increasing faculty members, new construction, and increased demand for business services.

• It was also found in the study that for every dollar spent by FGCU, 70 cents is spent by southwest Florida.

Source: Naples Daily News, August 9, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

4000.0

(Thousands)

20.0%

120.0

10.0%

100.0

5.0%

80.0

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 15.0%

56

2.5

12000.0

140.0

60.0

2.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 160.0

1.5

-5.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.2 7.5 6.2 12.1 15.5 5.2 56.3 47.8 44.4 4

18.5 7.4 6.3 12.3 15.7 4.5 57 48.2 44.8 3.6

18.8 6.6 6.4 12.5 15.9 4.2 57.5 48.4 45.2 3.1

19.1 6.8 6.5 12.7 16 4.9 58.2 48.7 45.7 4

19.5 6.8 6.6 12.9 16.2 4.8 58.8 49 46.1 3.8

19.9 7.1 6.7 13.2 16.5 4.9 59.6 49.4 46.5 3.7

20.2 7.3 6.8 13.4 16.7 5.2 60.3 49.8 47 3.8

20.6 7.6 6.9 13.7 16.9 5.5 61.1 50.2 47.4 3.9

21 8 7.1 14 17.2 5.9 62 50.7 47.9 4

21.4 8 7.2 14.2 17.5 6 62.8 51.1 48.4 4

21.8 7.9 7.3 14.4 17.6 5.8 63.4 51.4 48.9 4.1

22.2 7.7 7.5 14.7 17.9 5.8 64.2 51.8 49.3 4.1

22.6 7.5 7.6 15 18.2 5.6 64.9 52.2 49.8 4

23 7.4 7.7 15.3 18.4 5.5 65.7 52.5 50.3 3.9

142 2.7 3.2 -1.4 138.7 2.8 24.1 -1.4 25.9 4.2 3.4 20.8 1.7 1.9 2.5 8.8 2.7 18 6 16 3.2 23.5 3.5 5.9 1.7 0.7 3.2 13.9 3

143.3 3 3.2 -1 140.1 3.1 24.3 -0.1 26.2 4.2 3.5 21 1.7 2 4.2 8.9 3.1 18.2 5.8 16.2 3.4 23.7 3.6 5.9 1.3 0.7 2.9 14 3.1

144.6 3.4 3.2 -0.4 141.4 3.5 24.5 1.7 26.4 3.9 3.5 21.2 1.7 2 4.3 9 3.8 18.5 6.1 16.3 4.1 23.9 3.2 5.9 1.3 0.7 -2.3 14.1 3.1

145.9 3.5 3.2 0.1 142.7 3.6 24.7 2.7 26.7 3.9 3.5 21.4 1.8 2 3.8 9 4.1 18.9 6.6 16.5 4 24 2.4 6 1.3 0.7 0.8 14.3 3.1

147.1 3.6 3.3 0.4 143.8 3.7 25 3.7 26.9 3.7 3.6 21.6 1.8 2 3.5 9.1 4.1 19.2 6.8 16.6 3.6 24 2.3 6 1.3 0.7 3.7 14.3 3

148.3 3.5 3.3 0.6 145.1 3.6 25.3 4 27.1 3.3 3.6 21.7 1.8 2 3.6 9.2 4 19.4 6.5 16.7 3.3 24.1 2 6 1.6 0.8 7.5 14.4 2.9

149.5 3.4 3.3 0.6 146.2 3.5 25.5 4 27.2 2.9 3.7 21.8 1.8 2 3.9 9.3 3.9 19.6 5.8 16.8 3.1 24.3 1.8 6 1.7 0.9 28.8 14.5 2.8

150.7 3.3 3.3 0.6 147.5 3.4 25.8 4.3 27.4 2.6 3.7 21.9 1.9 2.1 4.1 9.4 3.8 19.9 5.5 17 2.9 24.5 2.3 6.1 1.9 0.8 8.2 14.7 2.8

152 3.3 3.3 0.7 148.7 3.4 26 4.2 27.5 2.4 3.7 22.1 1.9 2.1 4 9.5 3.6 20.2 5.4 17.1 2.8 24.7 2.8 6.1 2 0.8 9.3 14.8 2.8

153 3.2 3.3 0.6 149.7 3.2 26.2 3.5 27.7 2.4 3.8 22.2 1.9 2.1 3.9 9.5 3.3 20.4 5.3 17.2 2.8 24.8 2.8 6.2 2.2 0.8 3.8 14.8 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

138.2 1.5 3.3 -0.2 134.9 1.6 24.4 -0.4 24.9 0.5 3.3 20 1.6 1.9 -1 8.5 7.4 16.9 -0.9 15.5 2.3 22.7 2.6 5.8 0.7 0.7 -1.5 13.5 5.7

139.1 2.1 3.3 -1 135.8 2.2 24.3 -1.7 25.1 3.4 3.3 20.2 1.6 1.9 -2 8.6 9.1 17.2 0.8 15.6 2.7 22.8 2.5 5.8 1 0.7 -0.2 13.6 5.2

139.9 2 3.3 -1.6 136.6 2.1 24.1 -1.8 25.4 3.4 3.4 20.4 1.7 1.9 0.2 8.6 4.9 17.5 3.5 15.7 3.1 23.1 1.9 5.9 2 0.7 0.3 13.7 3

141 2.4 3.2 -1.3 137.7 2.5 24.1 -1.9 25.7 3.6 3.4 20.6 1.7 1.9 1.1 8.7 4.1 17.7 5.5 15.9 3.1 23.4 3.5 5.9 0.8 0.7 1.1 13.8 2.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10460.8 10575.5 10688.7 323.7 325.5 327.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 159.4 161 162.4 3.1 3.5 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 2421 2566 2757 1551 1596 1657 869 971 1100

10812 10936.3 11088.5 11239.9 11391.6 11538.3 11693.9 11846.5 11994.6 12140.5 12264.6 329.2 331.2 333.2 335.1 337.2 339.2 341.3 343.5 345.8 348.1 350.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 163.9 165.4 166.8 168.2 169.6 171 172.4 173.8 175.3 176.7 178.2 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 2983 3230 3478 3721 3887 4010 4095 4157 4176 4232 4259 1814 1959 2116 2251 2357 2428 2491 2560 2604 2650 2679 1169 1271 1362 1470 1529 1582 1604 1598 1572 1582 1580

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Nap l e s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.3 8.3 3 6.4 9.6 6.5 37.9 38.9 31.6 6.8

10 7.2 3.4 6.6 10 4.6 39.2 39.2 33.9 7.2

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.7 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 41.9 40.4 35.6 1.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9 11.6 3.8 42.7 40.5 38.7 8.6

14.5 18.3 4.9 9.7 13.4 15.3 48.8 45 40.1 3.8

15.2 4.8 5.4 9.8 13.7 1.8 49.4 44.3 42 4.6

16.8 10 5.8 11 14.6 7.1 53.1 46.4 42.8 1.9

18.1 7.9 6.1 12 15.4 5.4 56 47.8 44.3 3.4

19.3 6.8 6.5 12.8 16.1 4.7 58.5 48.9 45.9 3.7

20.8 7.7 7 13.8 17.1 5.7 61.5 50.4 47.7 3.9

22.4 7.6 7.5 14.9 18 5.7 64.6 52 49.6 4

128.3 6.3 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 0 7.7 9.3 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.1 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

135.2 5.4 3.3 2.8 131.9 5.4 24.2 19 24.5 1.1 3.2 19.7 1.7 1.9 3.2 8 3.8 17 4.2 15.2 4.7 21.9 1.8 5.8 2.2 0.7 0 12.7 3.3

138 2.1 3.3 -0.1 134.7 2.2 24.5 1 24.8 1.2 3.3 20 1.6 1.9 0.1 8.4 5.2 17 0 15.4 1.7 22.7 3.6 5.8 0.6 0.7 -0.4 13.5 6.2

141.5 2.6 3.2 -1.3 138.3 2.6 24.1 -1.3 25.8 3.9 3.4 20.7 1.7 1.9 2 8.7 3.7 17.8 5.2 15.9 3.2 23.4 3.1 5.9 1.5 0.7 1.9 13.9 2.9

146.5 3.5 3.3 0.2 143.2 3.6 24.9 3 26.8 3.7 3.6 21.5 1.8 2 3.8 9.1 4 19 6.5 16.5 3.7 24 2.5 6 1.4 0.7 2.5 14.3 3

151.3 3.3 3.3 0.6 148 3.4 25.9 4 27.4 2.6 3.7 22 1.9 2.1 4 9.4 3.6 20 5.5 17 2.9 24.6 2.4 6.1 2 0.8 12.2 14.7 2.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

93.1 3.5 2.9 5.2 90.3 3.5 11.5 8.9 19.8 2.4 2.7 15.5 1.6 1.7 -2.5 5.6 2.2 11.2 3.1 10.4 1.6 15.4 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.6 1.3 9.3 5.4

99.8 7.1 2.9 1.7 96.8 7.3 13.2 13.9 20.8 4.9 2.8 16.3 1.7 1.8 6.1 5.9 5 12.1 8.4 11.1 6.6 16.7 8.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 20.5 9.7 4.3

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.8 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

6089.9 246.1 4.8 99.6 3.4 3.8 6956 3829 3127

6525.9 255.5 3.8 116.1 16.6 3.7 7677 4250 3427

7068.4 266.1 4.1 123.6 6.5 4.1 7602 4111 3491

7511.7 277.2 4.2 129.6 4.9 5.1 7129 4377 2752

7980.5 287.5 3.7 133.6 3.1 4.9 5476 3460 2016

8589.1 298.1 3.7 139 4 4.2 6236 4097 2139

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast

9405.9 10048.2 10419.2 10881.4 11465.9 12061.6 308.4 315.6 322.8 330.2 338.2 346.9 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 145.4 153.4 158.5 164.6 170.3 176 4.6 5.5 3.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.5 3 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.8 5822 4276 2536 3112 3928 4206 4110 3099 1564 1886 2382 2623 1712 1177 972 1226 1546 1583

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala MSA will experience the second highest growth rate of personal income at an average annual rate of 7.2 percent, as well as the highest growth rate of average annual wage at a growth rate of 3.8 percent.

Additionally, the area is expected to achieve growth rates that outpace the state average in population and employment growth.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and education and health services sectors, at average annual growth rates of 4.4 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 316,183 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 130,055 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,157 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 5,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,427 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,935 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,319 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,100 employees • Cingular Wireless – 1,000 employees Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Philanthropy pays in Ocala fundraising • The Ocala/Marion County Chamber of Commerce announced late in July that it had raised more than $337,000 in its annual fundraising blitz, which proved to be the most successful in the chamber’s history. This year’s organizers and volunteers were able to exceed monetary goals by about $12,500, all while spending $75,000 less than last year.

• The fundraiser will account for approximately 30 percent of the chamber’s revenue. This money will be used for business development initiatives such as Business After Hours, Emerging Leaders of Ocala, The Hispanic Business Council, and The Entrepreneurial Academy.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, August 23, 2007 Emerging Leaders Ocala • The budding young professional’s organization Emerging Leaders Ocala has increased from 13 members in 2005 to more than 240 young professionals today. The organization is similar to a group in Daytona that now has more than 600 members.

• The organization provides networking and professional support that helps retain young professionals in the area that might otherwise transfer to a different city.

Source: Ocala-Star Banner, August 1, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

Ocala gets tile distribution center • The wholesale tile distributor Trinity Tile Group has announced plans to build a 155,000 squarefoot distribution facility in Ocala.

• Trinity Tile Group distributes porcelain/ceramic tile, natural stone, glass, metal, and other decorative hard surfaces to the wholesale trade market. The new distribution center will allow Trinity to continue to grow and service five existing locations in Ocala, Jacksonville, Winter Park, Orlando, and Fort Myers.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, August 9, 2007 Marion County unemployment spikes • In July, Marion County’s unemployment rate jumped up to 4.8 percent, its highest point in three years, which is above the state average.

This data was released by the Florida Agency for Workforce Development. The statewide unemployment rate was 4.2 percent for July.

As a raw figure, this means 6,604 job seekers in Marion County were out of work in July.

• It is likely that the unemployment figures are due to the housing market “soufflé” (see Dr. Snaith’s writings on the issue) and the slowdown in construction due to those conditions.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, August 18, 2007 Small businesses to get a big boost • The Ocala City Council voted in mid-August to restore $80,000 in city funding during the fiscal year to the Small Business Development Center of the University of North Florida.

• The city provided $50,000 a year for the center several years ago but cut funding due to budget concerns. With the new resources, the center will once again house a staff of business experts ready to offer free help and advice to local entrepreneurs.

Source: Ocala Star-Banner, August 29, 2007

60

Florida & Metro Forecast

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

2.5

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

5000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

110.0

6.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

2.0%

80.0 70.0

2.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Payroll Employment 120.0

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.5 6.8 3.8 5.8 8.1 4.4 28.6 24.3 34.8 4.6

9.7 7 3.8 5.9 8.2 4.1 28.8 24.4 35.1 3.4

9.9 6.6 3.9 6 8.3 4.1 29.1 24.5 35.4 2.8

10 7 3.9 6.1 8.4 5 29.3 24.6 35.7 3.7

10.2 7.2 4 6.2 8.5 5.2 29.5 24.6 36 3.5

10.4 7.3 4 6.4 8.6 5.2 29.8 24.7 36.3 3.5

10.6 7.3 4.1 6.5 8.7 5.2 30.1 24.8 36.7 3.5

10.8 7.5 4.2 6.6 8.9 5.4 30.4 25 37 3.6

11 7.6 4.2 6.8 9 5.6 30.7 25.1 37.4 3.7

11.2 7.6 4.3 6.9 9.1 5.6 31 25.3 37.7 3.8

11.4 7.5 4.4 7 9.2 5.5 31.3 25.4 38.1 3.8

11.6 7.3 4.4 7.1 9.3 5.3 31.6 25.5 38.4 3.8

11.8 7.1 4.5 7.3 9.5 5.2 32 25.7 38.8 3.7

12 6.9 4.6 7.4 9.6 5 32.4 25.9 39.1 3.7

114.1 2.6 9.6 0.3 104.5 2.9 11.8 3.1 25.4 2.6 4.5 17.9 3 2.3 2.4 6.2 3 11.5 4.9 14.3 2.5 10.2 1.5 4.4 1 0.9 23.8 17.6 2.5

114.7 2.5 9.6 0.2 105.1 2.7 11.9 3.3 25.5 2.3 4.6 18 3 2.3 2.6 6.3 2.9 11.7 4.7 14.3 2.3 10.3 2 4.4 1.2 0.7 5.2 17.7 2.4

115.4 2.4 9.6 0.2 105.8 2.7 11.9 3.2 25.6 2.1 4.6 18.1 3.1 2.3 2.6 6.3 2.7 11.8 4.5 14.4 2.2 10.3 2.5 4.4 1.3 0.8 7.3 17.8 2.5

116 2.3 9.6 0.1 106.4 2.5 12 2.6 25.8 2 4.6 18.2 3.1 2.3 2.5 6.3 2.5 11.9 4.5 14.5 2.2 10.4 2.7 4.4 1.6 0.8 2.9 17.9 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

107.2 0.8 9.8 -2 97.4 1 11.5 -0.5 23.4 -0.2 4.2 16.5 2.7 2.2 -0.3 5.8 2.3 10.2 0.6 13.3 4.3 9.6 -0.8 4.3 2 0.7 -1.2 16.4 2.3

107.8 1.2 9.8 -1.5 98 1.5 11.5 -2 23.6 1.7 4.3 16.7 2.7 2.2 -1.3 5.9 3.1 10.3 1.3 13.4 3.7 9.6 2 4.3 1.9 0.7 -0.7 16.5 1.7

108.4 1.5 9.7 -2.4 98.7 1.9 11.4 -2.3 23.9 1.7 4.3 16.9 2.7 2.2 -1.5 5.9 2.7 10.5 4.4 13.5 3 9.7 3.2 4.3 2.2 0.7 0.1 16.7 2.1

109 2 9.7 -1.6 99.4 2.4 11.3 -2.3 24.1 3.4 4.3 17 2.8 2.2 0.1 5.9 3.3 10.6 4.9 13.6 2.8 9.9 3.5 4.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 16.8 2.3

109.7 2.3 9.6 -1.5 100.1 2.7 11.3 -1.6 24.3 3.9 4.4 17.2 2.8 2.2 1.5 5.9 1.9 10.7 5.2 13.7 2.8 9.9 3.5 4.3 1.3 0.7 2.9 16.9 2.9

110.4 2.5 9.6 -1.5 100.8 2.9 11.4 -0.8 24.6 3.9 4.4 17.3 2.8 2.2 2.7 6 2.3 10.8 5 13.8 2.9 10 3.7 4.3 0.8 0.7 2.5 17 3.1

111.2 2.6 9.6 -0.9 101.6 2.9 11.4 0.3 24.7 3.4 4.4 17.5 2.9 2.2 2.9 6 2.9 11 5.2 13.9 3.4 10 3.1 4.3 0.5 0.7 -2 17.2 3

112 2.7 9.6 -0.6 102.4 3 11.5 1.2 24.9 3.4 4.4 17.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 6.1 3.1 11.2 5.7 14 3.3 10.1 2.3 4.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 17.3 3

112.7 2.7 9.6 -0.3 103.1 3 11.6 2 25.1 3.3 4.5 17.8 2.9 2.3 2.1 6.1 3.1 11.3 5.9 14.1 3 10.1 2 4.3 0.6 0.7 2.7 17.4 2.8

113.4 2.7 9.6 0.1 103.8 2.9 11.7 2.7 25.3 3 4.5 17.9 3 2.3 2.1 6.2 3.2 11.4 5.6 14.2 2.7 10.1 1.7 4.4 0.9 0.8 6 17.5 2.6

8927.3 333 4.2 136.3 2.6 4.1 3762 3641 121

9018.4 336.2 4.1 137.3 2 4.1 3542 3427 115

9112.4 339.4 4 138.2 2.8 4.2 3510 3397 113

9206.1 342.6 3.9 139.1 2.8 4.2 3716 3602 114

9302.9 345.8 3.8 140.1 2.8 4.2 3894 3775 119

9410.4 348.9 3.8 141 2.7 4.2 4076 3952 125

9515 351.9 3.7 141.8 2.6 4.2 4201 4070 130

9625.5 354.8 3.6 142.7 2.5 4.1 4310 4174 135

9729.4 357.8 3.5 143.5 2.5 4.1 4385 4250 135

9838.2 360.6 3.4 144.4 2.4 4.1 4446 4313 133

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

62

Florida & Metro Forecast

9946.7 10046.1 10147.9 10233.9 363.4 366.2 368 369.9 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.6 145.2 146.1 147 147.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 4 4 4 4.1 4453 4422 4430 4429 4322 4297 4303 4304 130 125 128 125

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.5 6.1 2.1 3.4 5.6 4.3 21.5 22 25.1 3.2

5.9 7.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 4.6 22.6 22.6 25.9 3

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.1 22.7 26.9 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23 22.2 28.1 4.4

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 23.9 22.6 29.7 5.9

7.5 11.4 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.5 25.6 23.6 30.4 2.4

8.2 8.9 3.2 5 7.3 5.8 26.7 24 31.7 4.1

8.8 8.4 3.5 5.3 7.7 5.5 27.8 24.3 33.3 5.1

9.5 7.1 3.7 5.7 8.1 4.6 28.6 24.4 34.7 4.2

10.1 7 3.9 6.2 8.5 4.9 29.4 24.6 35.9 3.4

10.9 7.5 4.2 6.7 8.9 5.4 30.6 25.1 37.2 3.7

11.7 7.2 4.5 7.2 9.4 5.2 31.8 25.6 38.6 3.8 115.1 2.5 9.6 0.2 105.4 2.7 11.9 3.1 25.6 2.2 4.6 18 3.1 2.3 2.5 6.3 2.8 11.8 4.6 14.4 2.3 10.3 2.2 4.4 1.3 0.8 9.5 17.8 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

83.9 2.4 11.3 0.5 72.6 2.7 6.3 2.2 19.8 1.8 2.7 14.3 2.8 2.5 1.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 10.3 8.2 2 7.3 0.2 3.2 4.4 0.7 7.3 13.5 1.8

86 2.5 11.1 -1.8 74.9 3.2 6.3 0.7 20.4 3.3 2.8 15.1 2.6 2.6 3.8 3.9 1.1 7.7 4.3 8.5 4.1 7.1 -1.9 3.4 7.9 0.9 21.8 14.1 4.2

85.8 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.9 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.7 1.2 3 14.9 2.8 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

86.1 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.8 1.1 6.4 4.9 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.4 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89 3.4 9.2 -1 79.8 3.9 7.6 17.5 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95 6.7 9.6 4.1 85.4 7 9 18.7 21.7 3.7 3.6 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

100.6 5.9 9.9 3.6 90.7 6.2 9.8 9.7 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0.1 15.4 2.3

105.6 4.9 10 0.1 95.6 5.4 11.5 16.5 23.3 1.8 4.1 16.5 2.7 2.2 0.8 5.7 5.2 9.9 10.6 12.7 5.9 9.5 3.2 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.6

107.1 1.5 9.8 -1.4 97.3 1.8 11.6 0.8 23.5 0.6 4.2 16.6 2.7 2.2 1.1 5.8 1.2 10.1 2.5 13.2 4.3 9.5 0 4.3 3.8 0.7 -0.5 16.4 2.7

109.4 2.1 9.6 -1.8 99.7 2.5 11.4 -1.7 24.2 3.2 4.3 17.1 2.8 2.2 0.7 5.9 2.5 10.6 4.9 13.6 2.9 9.9 3.5 4.3 1.1 0.7 1.6 16.9 2.6

112.3 2.7 9.6 -0.4 102.7 3 11.5 1.5 25 3.3 4.5 17.7 2.9 2.3 2.4 6.1 3.1 11.2 5.6 14.1 3.1 10.1 2.3 4.3 0.6 0.7 1.8 17.3 2.8

5948.9 255.7 2 102.7 1.9 3.8 2832 2741 91

6122.4 260.9 2 109.2 6.4 4 2507 2441 66

6210.6 266.1 2 109.3 0.1 5 3246 3220 26

6391.9 273.4 2.8 111.7 2.2 5.9 5836 5342 494

6839.6 282.1 3.2 114.7 2.7 5.4 6832 6081 751

7448.3 293 3.9 119.8 4.4 4.6 5185 5096 89

8095.2 305.1 4.1 125 4.4 3.9 7288 6730 558

8623.3 317.9 4.2 131.7 5.3 3.4 7322 6984 338

8901.2 331.3 4.2 135.8 3.2 3.9 3969 3624 346

9258 344.2 3.9 139.6 2.8 4.2 3799 3681 118

9677 10093.7 356.3 366.9 3.5 3 143.1 146.5 2.5 2.4 4.1 4 4335 4433 4202 4306 133 127

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando – Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 1,984,855 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 290,435 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,043,500 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 244,045 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 406,875 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,074,583 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,721 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 56,800 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Avent Health System) – 19,270 employees 64

Florida & Metro Forecast

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 16,757 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 12,500 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 11,093 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Central Florida Investments/Westgate Resorts – 7,500 employees • Darden Restaurants, Inc. – 7,361 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Orlando MSA is expected to experience one of the highest growth rates in personal income at a rate of 7.0 percent. Additionally, the area is expected to achieve high levels of employment and population growth at 3.2 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and education and health services sectors, at average annual growth rates of 6.4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Vision fulfilled: downtown venues plan passes • Orlando public officials voted to pass the venues plan, which will bring a new performing arts center, a new basketball arena for the Orlando Magic, and a series of major renovations to the aging Florida Citrus Bowl.

• The venues are expected to bring a boom of development to all of Orlando, including areas directly connected to the venues, such as the struggling Paramore neighborhood.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 27, 2007

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

UCF halts hiring to save $12 million • UCF has announced plans to cut at least $12 million from its budget in response to statewide higher education budget cuts and a vetoed tuition proposal.

• The university has instituted a campus-wide hiring freeze and is capping future incoming freshman enrollment levels.

• UCF’s actions coincide with similar responses from other Florida universities, which have generated debate and conflict between the Florida State University System and the Florida Legislature over control of university tuition and benefits.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, July 12, 2007

Kuhn plans four-star hotel for Church Street • Developer Cameron Kuhn is proposing a new four-star hotel for his redevelopment of Church Street Station. The 18-story hotel will include 350 rooms and enhance the meeting space of the Presidential Ballroom at Church Street, which would be adjacent to its location on South Street and Garland Avenue.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 15, 2007

Darden to buy steak chain for $1.4 billion • Orlando-based Darden Restaurants recently announced a plan to acquire Rare Hospitality Inc., a company that owns and operates the Capital Grille and Longhorn Steakhouse franchises.

• This move by Darden comes just months after it announced the closing of two of its franchises, Smoky Bones Barbeque and Bahama Breeze, as well as the abandonment of their experimental restaurant Rocky River Grillhouse.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, August 16, 2007 Medical city momentum • Enthusiasm over the development of the “medical city” in Lake Nona is starting to skyrocket as construction of the new UCF medical school commences.

• In addition to the UCF medical school, Lake Nona will be home to the Burnham Institute for Medical Research, a VA hospital, and a Nemours Children’s hospital.

• Because of these impending institutions, the council group BioOrlando was launched.

BioOrlando will operate under the Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission and will work to develop the area into a biomedical cluster by attracting top companies and research opportunities.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, June 21, 2007

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O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.5

2.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 60000.0 50000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1300.0 1200.0

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1000.0

4.0%

900.0

2.0%

800.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

1100.0

66

1.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.2 6.3 44.9 25.2 59.6 4 34.1 28.9 40.3 3.2

71.3 6.7 45.7 25.7 60.4 3.8 34.4 29.1 40.7 3.4

72.6 6.3 46.4 26.1 61.1 3.9 34.8 29.3 41.1 3

73.8 6.9 47.2 26.6 61.8 4.9 35.1 29.4 41.4 3.6

75 6.9 47.9 27.1 62.5 4.9 35.5 29.6 41.8 3.6

76.4 7.1 48.8 27.6 63.4 5 35.9 29.8 42.2 3.6

77.9 7.3 49.8 28.1 64.3 5.2 36.4 30 42.5 3.5

79.4 7.6 50.7 28.7 65.2 5.5 36.8 30.3 42.9 3.6

80.8 7.8 51.7 29.2 66.1 5.7 37.3 30.5 43.4 3.8

82.3 7.7 52.6 29.7 67 5.7 37.7 30.7 43.8 3.8

83.7 7.5 53.5 30.2 67.8 5.4 38.1 30.9 44.2 3.8

85.2 7.3 54.4 30.8 68.7 5.4 38.6 31.1 44.6 3.8

86.6 7.1 55.4 31.3 69.6 5.3 39 31.3 45 3.8

88 7 56.3 31.8 70.4 5 39.4 31.5 45.4 3.8

1143.8 3 42.9 -1.3 1100.9 3.2 86 -1.6 212.6 3.7 48.8 132 32 28.1 0.2 68.4 2.6 212 6.7 115.2 3.2 200.7 2.8 56.5 2.3 11.6 1.8 109.7 2.4

1154.6 3.3 42.8 -1.2 1111.8 3.5 86.5 -0.6 214.4 3.6 49.2 133.1 32.2 28.2 1.6 69 2.9 216.8 7.4 116.2 3.1 202.1 2.9 56.5 1.5 11.7 1.3 110.5 2.6

1166.1 3.5 42.8 -0.5 1123.2 3.7 87.2 1.2 215.9 3.3 49.6 134.2 32.5 28.2 1.7 69.7 3.3 222 8.3 117.2 3.4 203.5 2.6 56.7 1.1 11.7 1.1 111.2 2.6

1177.2 3.7 42.9 -0.2 1134.3 3.9 87.9 2.3 217.7 3.3 50 135.5 32.9 28.3 1.4 70.2 3.5 227.3 9.1 118.1 3.4 204.2 2 56.9 1.1 11.7 0.9 112 2.7

1187.5 3.8 42.9 0.2 1144.6 4 88.9 3.3 219.4 3.2 50.4 136.3 33.2 28.5 1.3 70.9 3.6 232.1 9.5 118.9 3.2 204.4 1.9 57.1 1.2 11.7 0.8 112.7 2.7

1197.5 3.7 43 0.6 1154.5 3.8 90 4 220.9 3 50.9 137.1 33.6 28.6 1.6 71.4 3.5 235.9 8.8 119.6 3 205.5 1.7 57.3 1.4 11.9 1.7 113.4 2.6

1207.2 3.5 43.1 0.7 1164.1 3.6 91.1 4.5 221.8 2.7 51.3 137.5 33.9 28.8 1.9 72 3.3 239.3 7.8 120.3 2.6 206.9 1.7 57.5 1.5 12.5 7 114 2.5

1217.6 3.4 43.2 0.7 1174.4 3.5 92.1 4.7 223.1 2.5 51.7 138.2 34.2 28.9 2.1 72.4 3.1 243.5 7.1 120.8 2.2 208.5 2.1 57.8 1.6 12.6 8.1 114.7 2.4

1226.7 3.3 43.2 0.7 1183.4 3.4 93 4.6 224.5 2.3 52.2 138.8 34.6 29.1 2.1 72.9 2.8 247.4 6.6 121.3 2 209.9 2.7 58.1 1.7 12.1 3 115.3 2.3

1234.8 3.1 43.3 0.6 1191.5 3.2 93.6 4.1 225.8 2.2 52.5 139.4 34.9 29.2 2.1 73.3 2.6 250.2 6.1 121.7 1.7 211.4 2.8 58.5 2 11.9 0.4 115.9 2.3

80031.1 80914.8 81831.5 82753.6 83692.4 84801.9 85956.2 87098.7 88194.7 89321.3 90430.4 91544.6 92537.4 2057.6 2072.6 2087.2 2101.4 2115 2128.4 2141.9 2155.4 2168.7 2182.2 2195.6 2208.9 2221.7 2.9 3 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 1091.6 1100.3 1108.9 1117.4 1125.5 1133.5 1141 1148.4 1155.4 1162.3 1169.4 1176.3 1182.9 2.8 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 18343 17177 16902 18676 19555 20169 20661 21064 21590 21974 22082 22114 22327 13305 12416 12035 13696 14555 15087 15447 15755 16161 16520 16670 16767 16966 5038 4761 4867 4980 5000 5083 5214 5309 5428 5455 5412 5347 5360

93438 2234.7 2.4 1189.5 2.3 3.3 22352 17065 5287

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1109.9 2.6 43.5 -0.6 1066.5 2.8 87.4 0.4 205 3.3 47.1 127.3 30.8 28.1 -0.3 66.7 1.1 198.7 2.5 111.6 3.9 195.2 3.8 55.2 4.6 11.4 -0.4 107.1 2.6

1117.7 2.5 43.3 -0.8 1074.4 2.6 87 -1.1 206.9 3.7 47.6 128.1 31.2 27.8 -1.2 67.1 0.6 201.9 3.2 112.7 3.9 196.3 2.3 55.7 4.1 11.5 3.1 107.7 3

1126.2 2.8 43 -2.3 1083.2 3 86.1 -1.7 209.1 4 48 129.6 31.5 27.7 -2.3 67.4 0.7 205 4.5 113.3 3.3 198.5 3.6 56 4.3 11.6 2.5 108.4 3.2

1135.2 3.1 42.9 -1.8 1092.2 3.3 85.9 -1.4 210.8 3.5 48.4 130.8 31.7 27.9 -0.1 67.9 2.1 208.4 6.2 114.2 3.7 200.2 3.6 56.3 3.6 11.6 1.7 109 2.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o â&#x20AC;&#x201C; K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

41.2 7.8 26.3 14.9 42.2 6 25.5 26.1 29.8 4

44.7 8.6 28.7 16.1 44.7 6 26.9 26.9 31.3 5.2

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27.1 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7 48.4 3.7 28.3 26.8 34.8 3.7

56 9.5 35.6 20.4 51.6 6.7 29.9 27.6 36.2 4.1

61 8.9 39.1 21.8 54.7 5.9 31.5 28.2 37.6 4.1

65.5 7.4 42.2 23.2 57.1 4.5 32.9 28.7 39.1 3.8

69.7 6.5 44.7 25 59.4 4 34 29 40.2 3

74.5 6.8 47.6 26.8 62.2 4.7 35.3 29.5 41.6 3.4

80.1 7.6 51.2 28.9 65.7 5.5 37 30.4 43.2 3.7

85.9 7.2 54.9 31 69.1 5.3 38.8 31.2 44.8 3.8

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 25.1 2.3 57.4 4.8 156.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.8 5.3 43.2 2.3 935.7 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 25.8 2.8 59.5 3.7 168.2 7.2 97.3 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1035.9 5.8 44.3 2.7 991.6 6 79.8 14.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 26.7 3.6 63.7 7.1 182.4 8.4 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1077.1 4 43.6 -1.7 1033.5 4.2 86.9 8.9 198.4 2.9 46.3 122.4 29.7 28 4.7 66.3 4.1 191.7 5.1 107 4.7 188.2 2.5 52.5 5.3 11.4 -3.6 103.1 4.4

1106 2.7 43.6 0.2 1062.4 2.8 87.3 0.4 204.1 2.9 47 126.5 30.7 28 0.3 66.8 0.8 198.3 3.4 111 3.8 194 3.1 54.7 4.2 11.4 0 106.6 3.5

1139.9 3.1 42.9 -1.7 1097 3.3 86.1 -1.3 211.7 3.7 48.6 131.4 31.9 28 -0.2 68.2 2.1 210.6 6.2 114.7 3.3 200.4 3.2 56.3 2.9 11.6 1.8 109.4 2.6

1182.1 3.7 42.9 0 1139.2 3.8 88.5 2.7 218.5 3.2 50.2 135.8 33 28.4 1.5 70.6 3.5 229.3 8.9 118.5 3.3 204.4 2 57 1.2 11.7 1.1 112.3 2.7

1221.6 3.3 43.2 0.7 1178.4 3.4 92.4 4.5 223.8 2.4 51.9 138.5 34.4 29 2.1 72.6 2.9 245.1 6.9 121 2.1 209.2 2.3 58 1.7 12.3 4.6 115 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

878.3 4.6 51.9 0.3 826.4 4.9 53.5 6.8 172.5 4.4 37.2 106.1 29.1 24.8 7.6 53.3 5.1 134.9 8.2 83.4 0.6 176.8 5.3 38.1 4.7 9.6 0.8 79.5 2.9

911.5 3.8 51 -1.6 860.4 4.1 55.6 3.9 179.7 4.2 40.6 109.6 29.5 25.5 2.8 54.4 2.1 151.2 12.1 85.5 2.5 177 0.1 39.7 4.2 10.2 6.6 81.6 2.7

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 25 -1.9 54.2 -0.4 159.1 5.2 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 24.5 -1.9 54.7 1 155.8 -2.1 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.1 90.2 5.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

Florida & Metro Forecast

53943.6 56377.6 57865.3 1614.7 1663 1712.9 2.7 3 3 921.7 895.2 910.2 4.2 -2.9 1.7 2.8 3.1 4.2 29028 26462 24343 17309 16078 17524 11719 10383 6818

58834 62235.3 66609.3 72545.3 76725.4 79663.7 83269.9 87642.7 91987.6 1760.4 1809 1870.6 1937 1992 2050 2108 2162 2215.2 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.6 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 918 937.5 970.5 1012.3 1056.4 1088.5 1121.3 1151.8 1179.5 0.9 2.1 3.5 4.3 4.4 3 3 2.7 2.4 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 25493 28075 32965 34398 30597 19611 18826 21322 22219 17843 22679 26701 27336 24723 14404 13843 15971 16867 7651 5396 6265 7063 5874 5207 4982 5352 5352

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay – Melbourne – Titusville MSA is expected to experience the highest average annual wage rate growth in Florida at a rate of 3.7 percent.

Additionally, while the area is not expected to achieve levels of population and employment growth greater than the state average, it is expected to be one of few areas in Florida to achieve positive housing starts.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and financial sectors, both at an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 534,359 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 261,914 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,361 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • United Space Alliance, LLC - 6,500 employees • Harris Corporation - 6,500 employees • Health First - 6,100 employees • Space Gateway Support - 3,000 employees • Wuesthoff Health System - 2,500 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation - 2,000 employees • The Boeing Company - 1,800 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. - 1,293 employees • MC Assembly - 1,160 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. - 1,120 employees Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Summer slow time for local restaurants • Brevard County restaurants are experiencing the customary summer slowdown in restaurant patronage. The reasons for this annual slowdown may be, in part, because of a decrease in tourists at the end of the summer, but this slowdown is also caused by locals leaving for summer vacation and snowbirds not yet in Florida for the winter.

• While slow times may not be good for business, many owners capitalize on this lull by remodeling, revamping, or adding new features and items to their restaurants.

Source: Florida Today, July 23, 2007 Harris plans to add about 200 jobs • Melbourne-based Harris Corporation has plans to increase its workforce with nearly 200 additional hires by the end of the year. The increase coincides with a multitude of new governmental contracts for the defense company, and it will bring the number of local jobs provided by Harris to 6,900.

Source: Florida Today, July 23, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Port gets its largest amount ever • The Department of Homeland Security has awarded Port Canaveral its largest grant ever at $2.8 million. The grant money will be used to install a port-wide communications system, as well as a new emergency operations center.

Source: Canaveral Port Authority, May 11, 2007 Tourism may gain from late vacations • An overlooked advantage of the late start for Florida public schools is its effect on the tourism industry in the state. With the late start date, many Brevard County attractions are experiencing a noted boom in visitation, ticket sales, and patronage. These benefits lead to more revenue for local hotels and restaurants, as well as the attractions.

Source: Florida Today, June 13, 2007 Downtown Viera is unveiled • The Viera Co. has released its plans for the Viera Town Center, a mixed-use development project with an estimated cost of $30 million.

• The plans, which call for the commencement of the first phase in late 2008, feature shops, offices, restaurants, a hotel/conference center, housing, and a large park.

• Many areas are already experiencing the benefits of having a development like Viera nearby. The proposal has caused an explosion of retail and office development along I-95 near the Viera overpass. The businesses that will occupy this space are thrilled by the prospect of the increased volume and visitors due to the development.

Source: Florida Today, August 14, 2007

70

Florida & Metro Forecast

P a l m B a y â&#x20AC;&#x201C; M e l b o u r n e â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

(percent)

20000.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 240.0 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

2.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.5

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 5.7 9.6 9.4 16.2 3.5 35.1 29.8 43.6 3.8

19.4 6.3 9.8 9.6 16.4 3.5 35.5 30.1 44 3.5

19.7 5.8 9.9 9.8 16.6 3.3 36 30.3 44.4 2.9

20 6.4 10 10 16.7 4.4 36.4 30.5 44.8 3.8

20.3 6.6 10.2 10.1 16.9 4.6 36.8 30.7 45.2 3.5

20.6 6.6 10.3 10.3 17.1 4.5 37.2 30.9 45.6 3.5

21 6.7 10.5 10.5 17.3 4.6 37.7 31.1 46 3.6

21.4 6.9 10.6 10.7 17.6 4.8 38.2 31.4 46.5 3.7

21.7 7 10.8 10.9 17.8 5.1 38.6 31.6 46.9 3.8

22.1 7.1 11 11.1 18 5.1 39.1 31.8 47.4 3.9

22.4 7 11.1 11.3 18.2 5 39.5 32 47.8 3.9

22.8 6.6 11.3 11.5 18.4 4.7 39.9 32.2 48.3 3.9

23.2 6.5 11.5 11.7 18.6 4.7 40.3 32.4 48.7 3.8

23.5 6.4 11.6 11.9 18.8 4.4 40.7 32.6 49.1 3.8

221.9 2 23.6 -1.1 198.3 2.4 16.5 -1.7 39.2 3.4 5.8 29.7 3.7 3 1.1 9.2 1.5 40.4 4.4 29.8 2.2 22.1 2.7 8.3 0.4 6.2 0.9 23.6 2.3

223.3 2.2 23.6 -0.9 199.6 2.5 16.5 -0.9 39.5 3.4 5.9 30 3.7 3 2.7 9.2 1.8 40.9 4.2 30 2.4 22.2 2.8 8.3 0.1 6.2 0.4 23.8 2.4

224.6 2.3 23.7 -0.2 200.9 2.6 16.6 0.1 39.8 2.9 5.9 30.2 3.8 3 2.8 9.3 2.6 41.4 4.4 30.2 2.9 22.4 2.2 8.3 0 6.1 -1.2 23.9 2.3

226.1 2.4 23.7 0.2 202.4 2.7 16.7 1 40.1 2.9 6 30.4 3.8 3 2.2 9.3 2.8 42 4.9 30.4 2.8 22.4 1.5 8.3 0 6.1 -0.5 24 2.2

227.4 2.5 23.8 0.5 203.6 2.7 16.8 1.7 40.3 2.8 6 30.6 3.9 3.1 2 9.4 2.8 42.5 5.1 30.6 2.5 22.4 1.4 8.3 0.1 6.2 0.5 24.1 2.1

228.7 2.4 23.8 0.7 204.9 2.6 16.9 2.3 40.5 2.5 6.1 30.7 3.9 3.1 2.1 9.5 2.9 42.8 4.8 30.7 2.3 22.5 1.1 8.3 0.4 6.3 2.4 24.2 1.9

230 2.4 23.9 0.7 206.1 2.6 17 2.8 40.6 2.1 6.1 30.7 3.9 3.1 2.4 9.5 2.8 43.1 4.1 30.9 2 22.6 1 8.4 0.5 6.6 9.1 24.3 1.9

230.6 2 23.9 0.7 206.7 2.1 17.1 3 40.8 1.7 6.2 30.9 4 3.1 2.5 9.6 2.7 43.6 3.9 31 1.9 22.7 1.4 8.4 0.7 5.9 -4 24.5 1.9

232.2 2.1 23.9 0.7 208.3 2.3 17.3 2.8 40.9 1.6 6.2 31 4 3.1 2.5 9.6 2.4 44.1 3.8 31.1 1.8 22.8 1.9 8.4 0.8 6.3 1.4 24.6 1.9

233.3 2 24 0.6 209.3 2.2 17.3 2.3 41.1 1.5 6.3 31.1 4 3.1 2.4 9.7 2.2 44.4 3.8 31.2 1.8 22.9 1.9 8.4 1 6.4 0.7 24.7 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

217.5 0.6 23.9 -2.2 193.6 0.9 16.8 -5.9 37.9 1.8 5.6 28.8 3.5 3 -1.9 9 6.2 38.7 -0.5 29.2 3.2 21.5 1.6 8.3 3.4 6.1 -0.7 23.1 1.8

218.6 1.2 23.8 -1.9 194.7 1.5 16.7 -5.2 38.2 2.3 5.7 29 3.6 2.9 0.2 9 7.5 39.2 1.5 29.3 2.5 21.6 2.3 8.3 1.2 6.1 -0.3 23.2 2.2

219.6 1.2 23.7 -1.3 195.9 1.5 16.6 -3.9 38.6 2.5 5.7 29.3 3.6 2.9 -0.9 9.1 4.2 39.6 3.4 29.4 1.2 21.9 1.1 8.3 2.1 6.2 0.2 23.4 1.3

220.8 1.8 23.7 -1.1 197.1 2.1 16.5 -2.5 38.9 2.9 5.8 29.5 3.6 3 -0.2 9.1 2.8 40 4.1 29.6 2.3 22.1 2.8 8.3 -0.4 6.2 -0.1 23.5 1.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17072.5 17221.1 17375.3 17527.5 17681.4 17857.5 18031.6 18216.7 18389.8 18572.7 18748.5 18871.7 542.6 544.6 546.7 549 551.5 554.3 557 559.8 562.6 565.3 568.2 571.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2 2 2 2 2 264.9 266.5 268.1 269.6 271.2 272.6 274 275.4 276.7 278.1 279.5 280.9 1.4 1.1 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2 2 2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4 3500 3557 3692 3954 4183 4384 4543 4684 4792 4863 4860 4820 2861 2868 2926 3176 3372 3544 3671 3789 3881 3954 3972 3957 640 689 766 778 811 839 872 894 911 909 888 863

*Quarterly at an annual rate

72

Florida & Metro Forecast

19081 19235.7 574.1 577 2 2.1 282.2 283.6 2 2 4.1 4.1 4810 4767 3960 3953 850 815

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.6 4.2 5.8 5.8 11.9 2.5 24.6 25.2 30.7 2.4

12.9 10.8 6.4 6.5 12.9 8.1 26.9 26.9 32.9 6.9

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.3 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 27.9 26.9 35.2 3.4

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2 13.8 3.2 28.8 27.3 36.9 4.7

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 14.6 5.4 30.4 28 38.8 5.1

16.8 6.5 8.7 8.1 15.1 3.6 31.8 28.5 40.3 3.8

17.9 6.4 9.2 8.7 15.6 3.6 33.4 29.2 41.9 4

18.9 5.9 9.6 9.3 16.2 3.5 35 29.8 43.5 3.9

20.1 6.4 10.1 10 16.8 4.2 36.6 30.6 45 3.4

21.5 6.9 10.7 10.8 17.7 4.9 38.4 31.5 46.7 3.7

23 6.6 11.4 11.6 18.5 4.7 40.1 32.3 48.5 3.8

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

212.5 3.5 23.9 1.2 188.5 3.8 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 5.9 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 20.5 3.5 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

216.6 2 24.5 2.2 192.2 1.9 18.1 4.9 37.4 1 5.5 28.4 3.5 3 3.2 8.5 1.9 39 0.6 28.2 3.4 21.1 3.1 8.1 -1.1 6.2 1.6 22.6 1.7

217.5 0.4 23.9 -2.1 193.6 0.7 16.9 -6.4 37.9 1.3 5.6 28.8 3.5 3 -1.9 8.9 4.2 38.7 -0.7 29.1 3.2 21.6 2.1 8.3 2.6 6.1 -0.1 23.1 2.3

221.4 1.8 23.7 -1.1 197.7 2.2 16.5 -2.3 39.1 3 5.8 29.6 3.7 3 0.7 9.1 2.6 40.2 4 29.7 2 22.1 2.3 8.3 0.6 6.2 0.3 23.6 1.9

226.7 2.4 23.7 0.3 203 2.6 16.7 1.3 40.2 2.8 6 30.5 3.8 3 2.3 9.4 2.7 42.2 4.8 30.5 2.6 22.4 1.5 8.3 0.2 6.2 0.3 24.1 2.1

231.5 2.1 23.9 0.7 207.6 2.3 17.2 2.7 40.9 1.7 6.2 30.9 4 3.1 2.4 9.6 2.5 43.8 3.9 31.1 1.9 22.8 1.5 8.4 0.7 6.3 1.8 24.5 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

185 1.3 25.7 -3.5 159.3 2.1 11.5 3.6 33.5 4.4 5 25.4 3.1 2.8 -6 6.6 2.7 31.6 0.3 22.8 2.8 18.2 2.2 7.4 1.2 5.5 -1.5 19.4 1.8

191.5 3.5 24.8 -3.5 166.7 4.6 12.5 8.5 34.1 1.6 5 26.2 2.8 3.1 8.5 6.7 1.7 34.6 9.8 23.9 4.9 18.1 -0.3 7.7 3.7 5.7 3.9 20.3 4.4

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.7 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.2 7.1 5.8 34.1 -1.5 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

12294.6 12751.4 13084.7 13410.5 14084.9 15029.4 473 479.1 487.5 496.6 506.7 519.2 1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2 2.5 215.4 232 235.7 238.2 242.9 249.4 0.8 7.7 1.6 1.1 2 2.7 4.1 3.6 4.4 5.7 5.2 4.4 4647 4405 5120 6683 6228 8385 3550 3553 4525 5196 5672 6438 1097 852 595 1488 556 1948

16068 16711.8 17029.2 17610.4 18302.7 18984.2 529 535.2 541.8 550.4 561.2 572.6 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.6 2 2 255.1 261.4 264.6 270.4 276 281.5 2.2 2.5 1.2 2.2 2.1 2 3.7 3.3 3.9 4.3 4.1 4.1 8612 5386 3409 4053 4721 4814 7322 4437 2895 3255 3824 3960 1289 949 513 799 897 854

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola – Ferry Pass – Brent MSA is expected to achieve moderate average annual wage rate growth of 3.5 percent, which outpaces the statewide average.

While housing starts in the area are negative, this figure is a reflection of the poor housing market and no different than what most areas of the state are experiencing.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and financial sectors, at average annual growth rates of 2.9 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 439,987 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 295,426 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 144,561 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 206,600 in December 2006 for the MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.0%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,209 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government - 15,790 employees • Federal Government - 7,403 employees • State Government - 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System - 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care - 3,470 employees • University of West Florida - 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. - 1,800 employees • Lakeview -1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company - 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital - 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce 74

Florida & Metro Forecast

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Sacred Heart branching out to Gulf Shores, Port St. Joe • The Sacred Heart Health Care System, based in Pensacola with a regional workforce of about 4,500 workers, is expanding its health system into Gulf Shores, Alabama and Port St. Joe in the Florida Panhandle.

• The Gulf Shores medical center, which plans to open in early 2008, will cost about $15 million.

The Port St. Joe hospital complex will cost about $30 million and plans to open in early 2009.

• The expansion is a result of the growing Gulf Coast area.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 22, 2007 Pensacola airport sets record • The Pensacola Regional Airport had 162,005 passengers arrive and depart in July 2007, an all-time record and a 3 percent increase from July 2006. July beat May, which had 160,620 passengers arrive and depart. May 2007 held the all-time record before July.

• The increase in passengers and tourism is attributed to the recovery of the airline industry in the state.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, August 21, 2007

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Proposal targets new business • The Escambia County Commission has proposed offering incentives to business owners to get them to establish their business in Escambia County, instead of nearby areas such as Alabama and other Florida counties.

• Some of the incentives discussed include property-tax breaks and rebates on gas taxes.

• No final proposal has been created, but the Pensacola Bay Area Chamber of Commerce is working to increase economic development in the area.

Source: Pensacola Business Journal, July 11, 2007

IHMC wins coveted U.S. Commerce Department Award • The Institute for Human and Machine Cognition, a Pensacola technology thinktank, won the 2007 Excellence in Economic Development award in its category of technology-led economic development. It was the only Florida winner.

• Winners were chosen based on a few factors, such as their link with universities and other technological companies, as well as their success in fostering technology-led economic development in their community.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 22, 2007

ExxonMobil Chemical Company announces manufacturing facility • In early 2008, Pensacola will be the new home of an initial manufacturing facility that will produce new specialty compounds for tires for ExxonMobile Chemical Company.

• Exxpro specialty elastomers will be used to manufacture the tires, and they are expected to make the tires lighter, improve the durability, and reduce fuel consumption.

• This new ExxonMobil plant will supply customers all over the world.

Source: Enterprise Florida, June 19, 2007 Local commercial real estate market on a roll • The Pensacola commercial real estate market is showing growth in many ways, unlike its residential counterpart.

• One of the major developments in the works is a Navy Federal Credit Union expansion, which will create about 1,700 jobs and is worth approximately $100 million.

• Pensacola ranks 119th out of 300 national retail markets for buying power.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 22, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a â&#x20AC;&#x201C; F e r r y P a s s â&#x20AC;&#x201C; B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.6

76

1.2

1.5

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment 185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0

0.9

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

1.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14 5.4 6.8 7.2 11.9 3.1 31.6 26.9 37 3.8

14.2 5.8 6.9 7.3 12 2.9 32 27.1 37.3 3.2

14.4 5.3 7 7.4 12.2 2.9 32.4 27.3 37.6 2.6

14.6 5.8 7.1 7.6 12.3 3.8 32.8 27.5 37.9 3.4

14.9 6 7.2 7.7 12.4 4 33.2 27.7 38.2 3.1

15.1 6 7.3 7.8 12.5 4 33.6 27.9 38.5 3.1

15.3 6.1 7.3 8 12.6 4 34.1 28.1 38.8 3.2

15.6 6.2 7.4 8.1 12.8 4.2 34.5 28.4 39.1 3.3

15.8 6.4 7.5 8.3 12.9 4.4 35 28.6 39.5 3.4

16.1 6.4 7.6 8.4 13.1 4.4 35.4 28.8 39.8 3.5

16.3 6.4 7.7 8.5 13.2 4.4 35.8 29 40.2 3.5

16.5 6 7.8 8.7 13.3 4.1 36.1 29.2 40.5 3.5

16.8 5.9 7.9 8.8 13.5 4.1 36.6 29.4 40.8 3.4

17 5.8 8 9 13.6 3.8 37 29.6 41.1 3.4

176.1 1.7 7 -2.2 169.1 1.9 14.5 -0.8 33.3 2.8 6.5 22.3 4.4 3.7 0.7 9.3 1 24 4.1 28.3 1.6 18.2 2.1 7.9 0.3 6.4 0.2 23.4 1.7

176.9 1.8 7 -2.1 169.9 1.9 14.5 -0.6 33.5 2.8 6.6 22.5 4.5 3.7 2 9.3 1.3 24.2 4 28.5 1.8 18.3 1.9 7.9 -0.1 6.4 -0.3 23.5 1.8

177.8 1.8 7 -1.6 170.8 2 14.5 0 33.7 2.4 6.6 22.6 4.5 3.7 2.3 9.4 2.1 24.5 4.2 28.7 2.4 18.4 1.5 7.9 -0.2 6.3 -1.6 23.6 1.7

178.7 1.9 7 -1.1 171.7 2 14.6 0.5 33.9 2.4 6.7 22.7 4.6 3.7 1.8 9.5 2.3 24.9 4.7 28.8 2.3 18.4 0.9 7.9 -0.1 6.3 -1 23.7 1.6

179.5 1.9 7 -0.8 172.5 2 14.7 1.1 34.1 2.3 6.7 22.8 4.6 3.8 1.5 9.5 2.3 25.2 4.9 28.9 2 18.4 0.9 7.9 -0.1 6.4 -0.2 23.8 1.5

180.3 1.9 7 -0.4 173.3 2 14.8 1.7 34.2 2 6.8 22.9 4.7 3.8 1.5 9.6 2.3 25.4 4.7 29 1.7 18.5 0.8 7.9 0.2 6.5 1.6 23.8 1.4

181.2 1.9 7 -0.2 174.2 2 14.8 2.1 34.2 1.7 6.8 22.9 4.7 3.8 1.9 9.6 2.2 25.5 4 29.1 1.5 18.5 0.6 7.9 0.3 6.7 7 23.9 1.4

181.3 1.4 7 -0.2 174.3 1.5 14.9 2.3 34.3 1.4 6.8 22.9 4.7 3.8 2 9.7 2.1 25.8 3.7 29.2 1.4 18.6 0.9 7.9 0.5 6 -5.4 24 1.4

182.4 1.6 7 -0.2 175.4 1.7 15 2.2 34.5 1.2 6.9 23 4.8 3.8 2 9.7 1.9 26.1 3.6 29.3 1.3 18.7 1.3 8 0.6 6.4 0.4 24.1 1.4

183 1.5 7 -0.3 176.1 1.6 15 1.6 34.6 1.1 6.9 23 4.8 3.9 1.9 9.7 1.7 26.3 3.5 29.3 1.3 18.7 1.3 8 0.8 6.5 0 24.2 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

173.2 0.5 7.2 -2 166 0.6 14.6 -5.4 32.4 0.2 6.3 21.8 4.3 3.7 -1.8 9.2 5.3 23 0.8 27.9 3.1 17.9 1.5 7.9 0.7 6.4 -4.5 23 1.8

173.9 0.8 7.2 -1.2 166.7 0.9 14.6 -2.4 32.6 0.9 6.4 21.9 4.3 3.7 -1.3 9.2 4.2 23.3 1.8 28 1.8 18 1.4 7.9 0.5 6.4 -2.5 23.1 1

174.6 1.1 7.1 -2.5 167.5 1.3 14.5 -0.6 32.9 1.9 6.4 22.1 4.3 3.6 -1.7 9.2 2.8 23.5 2.4 28 1.1 18.2 2.3 7.9 -0.4 6.4 -2.3 23.2 1.4

175.4 1.5 7.1 -2.3 168.3 1.6 14.5 -1 33.1 2.4 6.5 22.2 4.4 3.7 -0.7 9.2 2.3 23.8 3.7 28.2 1.7 18.3 2.2 7.9 -0.6 6.4 -0.7 23.3 1.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

14153 14264.1 14375.7 14488.5 14598.3 14725.4 14848.7 14983.3 443.2 444.1 445 446.1 447.2 448.4 449.6 450.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1 1.1 205.6 206.6 207.5 208.4 209.2 210 210.8 211.5 0.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 2014 2027 2039 2122 2200 2262 2298 2342 1543 1558 1595 1709 1806 1895 1957 2029 470 469 444 413 394 367 341 314

15107 15240.4 15364.8 15437.8 15601.5 15712.2 452.2 453.5 455 456.5 457.9 459.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 212.3 213 213.7 214.5 215.2 215.9 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 2371 2386 2404 2396 2402 2395 2086 2136 2158 2157 2165 2168 285 249 245 239 237 227

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 9.3 2 22.1 22.7 27.3 3.5

9.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.7 4.3 23.4 23.4 28.8 5.6

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.2 23.7 29.6 2.8

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.7 23.8 29.9 1

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6 10.3 2.1 25.4 24.1 30.8 3

11.6 6.5 5.7 5.9 10.7 3.8 26.8 24.7 32.5 5.5

12.4 6.3 6.1 6.3 11.1 3.3 28.2 25.3 33.6 3.5

13.2 6.8 6.5 6.7 11.5 3.9 30 26.2 35.5 5.4

14 5.7 6.8 7.1 11.9 3.3 31.5 26.9 36.9 4

14.8 5.8 7.1 7.6 12.3 3.7 33 27.6 38 3.1

15.7 6.3 7.5 8.2 12.9 4.3 34.7 28.5 39.3 3.3

16.6 6 7.9 8.8 13.4 4.1 36.4 29.3 40.6 3.4

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.2 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.4 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.7 7.8 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

168.7 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.1 3.6 13.9 19.4 32.3 6.2 6.2 21.9 4.2 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.2 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 1.9

172.4 2.2 7.4 -2.4 165.1 2.4 15.1 8.9 32.4 0.4 6.1 22 4.2 3.8 1.7 8.7 6.3 23.1 0.2 27 4.1 17.7 2.9 7.8 0.3 6.7 0.1 22.5 1.6

173.1 0.4 7.2 -1.9 165.9 0.5 14.6 -3.4 32.4 0 6.3 21.8 4.3 3.7 -3.3 9.1 4.3 23.1 -0.4 27.8 3 17.9 0.7 7.9 1.2 6.4 -4.3 23 2

175.8 1.5 7.1 -2.3 168.7 1.7 14.5 -0.8 33.2 2.5 6.5 22.3 4.4 3.7 0.1 9.3 1.8 23.9 3.6 28.3 1.6 18.3 2.1 7.9 -0.2 6.4 -0.8 23.4 1.6

179.1 1.9 7 -1 172.1 2 14.6 0.8 33.9 2.3 6.7 22.8 4.6 3.8 1.8 9.5 2.2 25 4.6 28.8 2.1 18.4 1 7.9 0 6.4 -0.3 23.7 1.6

182 1.6 7 -0.2 175 1.7 14.9 2 34.4 1.3 6.8 22.9 4.7 3.8 1.9 9.7 2 25.9 3.7 29.2 1.4 18.6 1 8 0.5 6.4 0.5 24.1 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

152.7 -0.2 9.4 -5.7 143.4 0.2 11.6 0.1 29.8 0.2 5.3 20.9 3.7 4.3 8 6.6 0.3 17.3 -0.9 23.1 -0.7 14.7 -0.7 7.3 5.5 7.6 -2.1 21.1 0.6

153.3 0.4 8.8 -6.3 144.5 0.8 12.1 4.3 29.6 -0.9 5.2 21 3.4 4.2 -2.2 6.8 4.2 17.8 2.7 23.5 1.7 14 -4.2 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.9 21.3 1.2

155.1 1.2 7.9 -10.1 147.2 1.9 12.8 6.3 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.7 -11.3 6.9 1.2 18.3 2.5 24.2 3 15.7 11.7 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.1 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

Florida & Metro Forecast

10900.4 11035.8 11336.9 11633.1 12211.4 12744.2 13486.3 13915.3 14123.2 410.5 413.8 419.7 425.2 429.8 434.4 438.2 440.3 442.9 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 181.3 187.5 186.4 187.3 191.9 195.3 199.2 204 205.6 0.9 3.4 -0.6 0.5 2.4 1.8 2 2.4 0.8 3.8 4 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3068 2545 3113 3207 4504 4784 3819 2797 2613 2837 2486 2997 3021 3616 3703 3338 2366 1757 230 59 116 186 887 1081 481 432 855

14547 15044.8 15529.1 446.7 451.5 457.2 0.8 1.1 1.2 208.8 211.9 214.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 3.8 3.7 3.6 2156 2349 2399 1751 2052 2162 405 297 237

Ta l l a h a s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 336,498 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,654 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,677 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 245,625 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,542 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,631 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.6%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,770 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees

• Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s While the Tallahassee area is expected to have employment and population growth just below the state average, the area will also see moderate increases of the average annual wage rate at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the leisure and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors, at average annual growth rates of 2.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s FedEx triples the size of cargo facility • FedEx began construction on a $3 million 22,000-square-foot cargo facility in late August.

This will be the second airport expansion in a decade, which shows a firm commitment to the community, according to Mayor John Marks.

• The facility will include an expanded sorting area for packages, additional space for aircrew and employees, and a customer service counter.

Michael Clow, capital programs administrator for the airport, has said he does not expect FedEx to increase staffing with the expansion.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, August 23, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Personal income increase for Tallahassee • According to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in early August, personal income grew from last year in the Tallahassee MSA of Gadsden and Leon counties.

• These numbers, however, do fall short of the national average for personal income growth of 6.6 percent in 2006. The report specifically stated that the growth in income was “spurred by property income and compensation components of personal income.”

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, August 8, 2007 StarMetro renews bid for downtown trolley • At its August meeting, the Tallahassee Downtown Improvement Authority discussed the looming transportation and parking issues.

StarMetro took this opportunity to propose a trolley system that was canceled in 2001.

• The trolley system could have several positive effects, including resolving transportation issues spurred from ever-rising gas prices and the simple lack of space for parking. The trolley system would be a plus for those considering Tallahassee for meetings or conventions that might have otherwise avoided the area due to the inefficiency in transporting visitors through downtown.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, August 14, 2007 Local foreclosure rates below national average • One of the nation’s leading real estate Web sites released a list of the top 100 cities for foreclosures in mid-August. Although three Florida metropolitan areas were listed in the top 25, the Tallahassee area was nowhere near it.

• Nationally, one of every 134 homes went into foreclosure during the first half of 2007, according to California-based Realtytrac.com.

Florida comes up fifth in the nation with one of every 81 homes in foreclosure. In Leon County, however, that number was one out of every 309 homes.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, August 17, 2007

80

Florida & Metro Forecast

Bright prospects for workers at Golden Lighting • Tallahassee-based lighting manufacturer Golden Lighting has received a $28,984 Incumbent Worker Training grant to provide specialized training for 19 of its 38 full-time workers.

Golden lighting reported sales of $11 million last year.

• The program, funded by the Federal Workforce Investment Act, provides expense reimbursement grants to companies who offer skills-upgrade training to their current full-time employees.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, August 1, 2007

Ta l l a h a s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

14000.0

2.5

3.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

8.0% 6.0%

170.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

180.0

150.0

2.0

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 190.0

1.5

0.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.1 5.4 6.7 4.5 9.5 3.1 32.6 27.7 37 3.5

11.3 6 6.7 4.6 9.6 3.1 33 27.9 37.3 3.5

11.5 5.3 6.8 4.6 9.7 2.9 33.4 28.1 37.7 3

11.6 5.7 6.9 4.7 9.7 3.8 33.8 28.3 38 3.9

11.8 5.8 7 4.8 9.8 3.8 34.1 28.4 38.3 3.6

12 5.8 7.1 4.9 9.9 3.7 34.5 28.6 38.7 3.6

12.1 5.8 7.2 4.9 10 3.8 34.9 28.8 39 3.7

12.3 6 7.3 5 10.1 3.9 35.3 29 39.4 3.8

12.5 6.2 7.4 5.1 10.2 4.2 35.7 29.2 39.8 3.9

12.7 6.2 7.5 5.2 10.3 4.3 36.2 29.4 40.2 3.9

12.9 6.2 7.6 5.3 10.4 4.2 36.6 29.6 40.6 4

13.1 6 7.7 5.4 10.5 4.1 36.9 29.8 41 4

13.2 5.8 7.8 5.5 10.6 4 37.3 30 41.4 3.9

13.4 5.7 7.9 5.5 10.7 3.7 37.7 30.1 41.7 3.8

182.1 1.5 4.3 -1.4 177.8 1.6 9.5 -2.8 27.8 2.5 3.9 21.3 2.6 3.7 1 8.7 0.7 20.4 4.4 17.9 1.6 17.3 2.1 8.9 0.5 1.9 1 61.7 1.1

182.8 1.6 4.3 -1.4 178.5 1.6 9.5 -2.2 28 2.5 3.9 21.4 2.6 3.7 2.1 8.7 1.1 20.6 4.3 18 1.8 17.3 2.2 8.9 0 1.9 0.6 61.9 1.1

183.5 1.5 4.3 -0.9 179.2 1.6 9.5 -1.2 28.1 2 3.9 21.5 2.7 3.7 2.4 8.7 1.7 20.9 4.4 18.1 2.3 17.4 1.6 8.9 -0.2 1.8 -1.8 62 1

184.3 1.5 4.3 -0.5 179.9 1.6 9.5 -0.5 28.2 2 4 21.6 2.7 3.7 1.9 8.8 1.9 21.2 4.9 18.2 2.2 17.4 0.9 8.9 -0.1 1.9 -0.6 62.1 0.8

184.9 1.5 4.3 -0.2 180.6 1.6 9.5 0.4 28.3 1.9 4 21.7 2.7 3.7 1.5 8.8 1.9 21.5 5.1 18.3 1.9 17.4 0.7 8.9 -0.1 1.9 0.7 62.2 0.8

185.6 1.5 4.3 0.3 181.2 1.5 9.6 1.2 28.4 1.6 4 21.7 2.8 3.7 1.5 8.9 2 21.6 4.8 18.3 1.6 17.4 0.4 8.9 0.2 1.9 3.1 62.4 0.9

186.2 1.5 4.3 0.6 181.9 1.5 9.6 1.7 28.4 1.2 4 21.7 2.8 3.8 1.8 8.9 1.9 21.8 4.1 18.4 1.4 17.5 0.3 8.9 0.3 2.1 12.9 62.6 1

186.8 1.4 4.3 0.5 182.4 1.4 9.7 1.9 28.5 0.8 4.1 21.7 2.8 3.8 1.9 8.9 1.8 22 3.9 18.4 1.2 17.5 0.8 8.9 0.5 1.8 -1.7 62.8 1.1

187.5 1.4 4.3 0.5 183.1 1.4 9.7 1.7 28.5 0.7 4.1 21.8 2.8 3.8 1.9 9 1.6 22.3 3.8 18.5 1.1 17.6 1.2 9 0.6 1.9 2.7 62.9 1

188 1.3 4.3 0.5 183.6 1.3 9.7 1.3 28.6 0.6 4.1 21.8 2.8 3.8 1.8 9 1.4 22.4 3.6 18.5 1.1 17.6 1.3 9 0.8 2 0.9 63 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

179.4 1 4.4 0.7 175 1 9.8 -3.3 27.1 4.6 3.8 20.8 2.5 3.6 -7.1 8.6 3.7 19.5 -4.2 17.7 2 16.9 7 8.9 3.3 1.9 -2.1 61 0

180 1.4 4.4 -0.4 175.6 1.4 9.7 -3.7 27.3 3.6 3.8 20.9 2.6 3.6 -5.2 8.6 3.6 19.8 -0.1 17.7 2.3 17 6.4 8.9 1.9 1.9 -1.4 61.2 0.3

180.7 1.3 4.3 -1.8 176.4 1.4 9.6 -3.1 27.5 2.8 3.9 21.1 2.6 3.6 -0.9 8.6 2.1 20 3.5 17.7 2 17.1 4.6 8.9 0.7 1.9 -1.7 61.4 0.1

181.5 1.3 4.3 -1.5 177.2 1.3 9.5 -3.5 27.7 2 3.9 21.2 2.6 3.6 -0.4 8.6 2 20.2 4 17.8 1.6 17.3 2.2 8.9 -0.3 1.9 -0.3 61.6 1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

12665 12756.2 12856.5 341.2 342.2 343.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 185.4 186.1 186.8 1.6 1.3 1.4 3 3.1 3.1 2329 2210 2171 1780 1634 1575 549 575 596

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

Florida & Metro Forecast

12956 13049.1 13156.9 13262.6 13376.1 13480.6 13593.8 344.3 345.4 346.6 347.7 348.9 350.1 351.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 187.5 188.1 188.8 189.4 189.9 190.5 191.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3 3 2232 2306 2385 2448 2492 2528 2542 1633 1685 1750 1789 1826 1849 1867 599 621 635 659 666 678 675

13706 13800.8 13909.2 13991.4 352.6 353.8 355.1 356.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 191.6 192.2 192.7 193.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 3 3 3 3 2527 2503 2493 2453 1868 1855 1849 1838 658 648 644 615

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

7.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 7.7 4.4 23.8 24.4 28.7 3.8

8 5.2 5 3 8 2.7 24.8 24.8 29.8 3.7

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.6 25.1 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 26 25.1 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3 8.3 1.6 26.6 25.2 32.8 2.1

9.5 8.8 5.8 3.7 8.8 6 28.7 26.5 34.4 4.8

9.9 4.7 6.1 3.9 8.9 1.7 29.8 26.7 34.9 1.4

10.5 5.6 6.4 4.1 9.2 2.8 31.2 27.2 35.8 2.6

11.1 5.5 6.6 4.4 9.4 3 32.5 27.7 36.9 2.9

11.7 5.7 7 4.7 9.8 3.6 33.9 28.4 38.2 3.5

12.4 6.1 7.3 5.1 10.2 4 35.5 29.1 39.6 3.8

13.2 5.9 7.7 5.4 10.6 4 37.1 29.9 41.2 3.9

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 163.9 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.8 2.8 4.2 0.8 168.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.6 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176.9 2.4 4.4 3.3 172.5 2.4 10 6.8 26 2.3 3.7 19.8 2.4 3.9 -4.5 8.3 4.1 20.1 5 17.3 2.6 16 2.1 8.4 5.7 1.9 -1.7 60.6 0.8

179.3 1.3 4.4 0.3 174.9 1.3 9.8 -2 27.1 4.3 3.8 20.8 2.5 3.6 -6.5 8.5 2.5 19.5 -2.9 17.6 1.8 16.8 5.2 8.9 5.1 1.9 -0.9 61.1 0.8

181.8 1.4 4.3 -1.6 177.5 1.5 9.5 -2.9 27.7 2.4 3.9 21.2 2.6 3.7 0.5 8.6 1.5 20.3 4 17.9 1.7 17.2 2.8 8.9 0.2 1.9 -0.1 61.6 0.8

184.5 1.5 4.3 -0.3 180.2 1.6 9.5 0 28.3 1.9 4 21.6 2.7 3.7 1.8 8.8 1.9 21.3 4.8 18.2 2 17.4 0.9 8.9 -0.1 1.9 0.3 62.2 0.9

187.1 1.4 4.3 0.5 182.8 1.4 9.7 1.6 28.5 0.8 4.1 21.7 2.8 3.8 1.8 9 1.7 22.1 3.8 18.5 1.2 17.6 0.9 8.9 0.5 2 3.6 62.8 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

162.7 2.5 5 -0.2 157.6 2.6 7.2 1.1 24.9 4 3.6 19.1 2.2 4.6 9.6 6.9 2.1 16.1 8.5 16.1 3.5 12.2 -1.5 7.9 -1.2 1.9 0 59.8 1.6

166.6 2.4 5.1 1.1 161.5 2.4 7.3 1.3 25.4 1.9 3.8 19.5 2.1 4.8 5.8 7 0.9 17.6 9.2 16.8 4.5 12.1 -0.5 8.2 3.9 2 6.5 60.2 0.6

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10116.2 10423.7 10451.1 10525.2 317.4 320.9 322.5 324.5 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.6 172.9 172.5 172.5 172.5 1.9 -0.2 0 0 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.5 2456 2902 2687 2708 1987 1994 1895 2222 469 908 791 486

10952 11409.3 12042.5 12428.6 12632.3 13004.6 13428.3 13851.9 327.7 330.6 333.6 337 340.8 344.9 349.5 354.4 1 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 174 174.2 176.6 181.6 185.1 187.8 190.2 192.4 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3 3907 3452 3753 3130 2491 2273 2502 2494 2464 2175 2811 2587 2008 1661 1833 1853 1443 1277 942 543 482 613 669 641

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,697,731 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 165,409 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,157,738 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 450,171 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 924,413 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,352,600 in December 2006 for the entire region (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,586 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Hillsborough County School District 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications - 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base - 12,000 employees

84

Florida & Metro Forecast

• University of South Florida - 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government -10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport - 7,760 employees • James A. Haley Veterans Hospital - 5,900 employees • St Joseph’s Hospital - 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase - 5,237 employees • Verizon Information Technologies - 5,000 employees Source: Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater MSA will experience the highest average annual wage rate growth in Florida at a rate of 3.8 percent, and both employment and population growth outpaced the statewide average. Additionally, per capita personal income and average annual wage remain one of the highest in the state.

Payroll employment growth is expected to be the highest in the professional and business services and education and health services sectors, at average annual growth rates of 5.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s USF faces $44 million in cuts • The University of South Florida is facing a 4 percent budget cut starting next year, which equates to $44 million.

• In order to offset the cuts, USF can increase its undergraduate tuition by, at most, 15 percent annually. It is also increasing graduate tuition by 10 percent, not for the same reason, but rather as an investment in its graduate program.

Source: The Tampa Tribune, July 4, 2007

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

County says it may cut 480 jobs • In Hillsborough County, up to 480 full-time and part-time jobs are expected to be eliminated in order to cut $55.9 million from the county budget, a 3.7 percent decrease from the previous year.

• Currently, there are about 6,000 full-time and part-time workers in the county.

• Nonprofit groups, libraries, public parks, code enforcement officers, and the Environmental Protection Commission could be affected by these cuts.

Source: St. Petersburg Times, July 24, 2007

Tampa Bay area adds to its rank of millionaires • Right now, the number of millionaire households in the Tampa Bay Area totals 58,310, according to the World Wealth Report. This number is a 4.1 percent increase from 2006.

• The reason for the growth is attributed to growth in GDP, increases in savings, and gains in stocks.

• In the next five years, the number of millionaire households is expected to increase by 51.3 percent.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, June 27, 2007

Hotel, motel industry has concerns but stays optimistic • The Tampa Bay Area currently has six hotels under construction and 14 more planned to begin development within the next year, including a Ritz-Carlton, and this development is a sign of a very strong tourism market.

Source: The Tampa Tribune, August 3, 2007 Tampa Bay foreclosures on the rise • According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings from January to June 2007 totaled 10,173 in the Tampa Bay area, ranking it number 24 in foreclosures out of the U.S.’s 100 largest areas.

This marks a 90 percent increase over January to June 2006 filings.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, August 15, 2007 Bay Area business vitality merits Moody’s lofty marks • In a ranking of overall economic vitality by Moody’s Economy.com, Tampa Bay was ranked number 15 out of 379 cities across the nation.

The ranking considers unemployment rates and household income growth.

• Job growth from large businesses like Coca Cola Enterprises and JP Morgan Chase, which are hiring workers, is considered a major source of the economic vitality for many of the top spots on the list.

Source: The Tampa Tribune, June 13, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

Tampa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; S t. P e t e r s bu r g â&#x20AC;&#x201C; C l ea r wa t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.3

0.6

1.2

1.5

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0 100000.0 90000.0 80000.0 70000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands)

1500.0 1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0

86

0.9

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

100.6 5.8 54.7 46 85.5 3.6 36.4 30.9 40.8 3.9

102.3 6.2 55.5 46.8 86.5 3.4 36.8 31.1 41.2 3.5

103.9 6 56.4 47.5 87.5 3.5 37.2 31.3 41.6 3.1

105.7 6.4 57.3 48.4 88.6 4.5 37.6 31.5 42 3.7

107.5 6.8 58.3 49.2 89.6 4.8 38.1 31.7 42.3 3.8

109.5 7.1 59.4 50.1 90.8 5 38.6 32 42.7 3.7

111.5 7.3 60.5 51 92.1 5.2 39.1 32.3 43.2 3.7

113.5 7.4 61.6 52 93.3 5.3 39.7 32.6 43.6 3.8

115.5 7.4 62.7 52.8 94.4 5.4 40.2 32.9 44 3.9

117.5 7.3 63.8 53.7 95.7 5.3 40.7 33.1 44.5 4

119.4 7.1 64.9 54.5 96.7 5.1 41.2 33.4 44.9 4

121.3 6.9 65.9 55.5 97.9 5 41.7 33.6 45.3 4

123.2 6.7 66.9 56.3 99 4.8 42.1 33.8 45.7 3.9

125.1 6.5 67.9 57.2 100 4.5 42.5 34 46.2 3.9

1364.9 2.7 72.5 -1.6 1292.4 3 87.6 -1.8 243 2.9 54.6 157.5 31 33.4 -0.6 106.3 2.2 330.2 6.6 163.6 2.2 125.7 2.3 49.8 0.6 21 1.6 131.8 1.9

1377.3 3.1 72.3 -1.5 1305 3.4 88 -0.6 244.6 2.9 54.8 158.6 31.2 33.5 0.3 107.2 2.7 337.3 7.5 164.7 2.4 126.4 2.6 49.8 0.2 21 1.2 132.5 2

1389.7 3.4 72.2 -0.8 1317.5 3.7 88.6 1 245.7 2.5 55.1 159.6 31.4 33.4 0.7 108.1 3 345 8.4 165.8 2.7 127 2.1 49.7 0 21 0.8 133.2 2

1402 3.6 72.2 -0.6 1329.8 3.8 89.1 2 247.1 2.4 55.4 160.7 31.7 33.4 0.5 108.8 3.2 352.8 9.1 166.8 2.7 127.1 1.3 49.7 -0.1 21.1 0.6 133.8 2.1

1413.1 3.5 72.2 -0.3 1340.9 3.8 89.9 2.7 248.3 2.2 55.7 161.3 32 33.5 0.1 109.6 3.1 359.7 8.9 167.6 2.4 127 1.1 49.8 0 21.1 0.5 134.5 2

1423.3 3.3 72.3 0 1351 3.5 90.7 3.1 249.3 1.9 56 161.9 32.2 33.6 0.3 110.4 2.9 365.2 8.3 168.2 2.1 127.4 0.8 49.8 0.2 21.3 1.3 135.1 1.9

1433 3.1 72.3 0.2 1360.7 3.3 91.6 3.4 249.7 1.6 56.3 162 32.4 33.6 0.7 111 2.7 370.4 7.4 168.6 1.7 128 0.8 49.9 0.3 22.3 6 135.6 1.8

1443 2.9 72.3 0.2 1370.7 3.1 92.3 3.5 250.6 1.4 56.6 162.5 32.6 33.7 0.9 111.5 2.5 376.6 6.8 169 1.3 128.7 1.3 50 0.4 22.1 4.9 136.1 1.7

1452 2.7 72.4 0.2 1379.6 2.9 92.9 3.4 251.8 1.4 57 163.1 32.9 33.8 1.1 112.1 2.2 382 6.2 169.3 1 129.4 1.9 50.2 0.7 21.5 2 136.6 1.6

1458.6 2.5 72.4 0.1 1386.2 2.6 93.4 2.9 252.9 1.5 57.3 163.6 33.1 34 1.2 112.5 2 385.1 5.4 169.4 0.8 130.1 2.1 50.4 1.2 21.3 0.1 137 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1328.9 1.2 73.6 -3 1255.2 1.4 89.2 -0.1 236.3 1 53.4 152.9 30.1 33.6 2.7 104 1.2 309.7 0.9 160.1 3.6 122.8 2.5 49.5 3.8 20.7 -1.6 129.3 0.7

1335.7 1.6 73.4 -2.5 1262.3 1.8 88.5 -0.3 237.7 2 53.6 153.6 30.3 33.4 1.6 104.4 1.6 313.8 2.5 160.9 2.3 123.2 2.3 49.7 1.6 20.8 -0.2 129.9 1

1343.6 1.9 72.8 -3 1270.8 2.2 87.7 -1.8 239.7 2.3 54 155.1 30.6 33.2 -0.5 104.9 1.5 318.3 4.2 161.4 2.7 124.4 3 49.7 0.9 20.9 0.9 130.5 0.9

1353.2 2.3 72.6 -2.1 1280.6 2.6 87.4 -1.9 241.3 2.6 54.3 156.4 30.8 33.3 -1 105.5 1.7 323.3 5.1 162.4 2.4 125.5 3.1 49.8 1.6 20.9 1.6 131.1 1.7

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

102374 103310 104314 105374 106563 107862 109143 110393 111562 112775 113958 115139 116238 117161 2767.2 2781 2795 2808.9 2822.6 2836.2 2849 2861.6 2874 2886.5 2898.9 2912.2 2926.6 2940.9 2.1 2 2 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1353.1 1360.2 1366.9 1373.8 1380.5 1387.2 1393.7 1400 1405.9 1411.7 1417.3 1422.9 1427.7 1432.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 2.1 2 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 14041 13899 14057 15861 17018 17724 18365 18914 19410 19774 19931 19954 20123 20097 10783 10470 10438 12065 13005 13672 14195 14673 15072 15426 15631 15743 15945 16045 3258 3429 3619 3795 4013 4052 4170 4241 4338 4348 4300 4211 4178 4052

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

September 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

63.7 5.1 35.4 28.4 65.3 3.4 26.8 27.5 30.9 5.5

68.9 8.1 38.5 30.4 68.9 5.5 28.6 28.6 32.2 4.1

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.7 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.7 34.8 3.5

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6 72.4 1.1 30.2 28.6 35.1 0.7

82.7 8.1 44.9 37.8 76.3 5.3 31.9 29.4 36 2.7

88 6.4 48.1 39.9 78.9 3.4 33.2 29.8 37.2 3.3

94.3 7.2 51.8 42.5 82.3 4.3 34.9 30.4 39.2 5.5

100.1 6.1 54.5 45.6 85.3 3.7 36.3 30.9 40.7 3.7

106.6 6.6 57.8 48.8 89.1 4.4 37.9 31.7 42.2 3.6

114.5 7.4 62.1 52.4 93.9 5.3 39.9 32.7 43.8 3.9

122.3 6.8 66.4 55.9 98.4 4.8 41.9 33.7 45.5 4

1183.5 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.5 1 68.2 3.7 218.2 -2.8 48.7 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 248.1 4.5 144.8 3.3 109.5 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.7 -0.8

1236.5 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.9 4.7 75.2 10.4 223.2 2.3 49.2 142.3 31.7 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 278 12.1 149.5 3.2 113.1 3.3 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1281.6 3.6 75.3 0.9 1206.3 3.8 84.4 12.2 230.5 3.3 51.1 148 31.4 32.7 -0.6 98.7 4.2 294.6 6 151.9 1.6 117 3.5 48.4 0.5 20.8 4.2 127.2 0

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1132.3 2.7 84.9 2.8 1047.4 2.6 60.4 -0.1 228.8 0.6 51.7 141.6 35.5 37.8 9 87.3 6.4 216.8 8.8 136.1 -0.7 102.1 -1 42.9 2.1 18.4 0.9 116.7 0.6

1185.1 4.7 87.5 3 1097.6 4.8 64 5.9 237.4 3.7 54.2 146.5 36.7 39.7 5 90.9 4 236.9 9.3 137 0.7 105.2 3 43.9 2.4 19.1 3.9 123.5 5.9

1182.1 -0.3 82.2 -6 1099.9 0.2 63.8 -0.3 228.7 -3.7 52.9 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 241.2 1.8 137.2 0.1 107.7 2.4 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.1 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.1 -0.2 65.7 3 224.6 -1.8 51.6 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 237.5 -1.5 140.2 2.2 109 1.2 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

1308 2.1 76.1 1 1232 2.1 89.4 5.9 233.3 1.2 52.1 150.5 30.7 32.9 0.5 102.6 3.9 303.4 3 155 2.1 119.2 1.9 47.3 -2.3 21 1.2 127.9 0.5

1326.2 1.4 74.1 -2.6 1252.2 1.6 89 -0.4 235.9 1.1 53.1 152.7 30.1 33.5 1.9 103.9 1.3 309.1 1.9 159.2 2.7 122.1 2.5 49.4 4.3 20.7 -1.5 129.4 1.2

1359.7 2.5 72.6 -2 1287.2 2.8 87.7 -1.5 242.2 2.7 54.4 156.9 30.9 33.3 -0.4 106 2 327.3 5.9 163.1 2.4 125.5 2.8 49.8 0.8 21 1.3 131.5 1.6

1407 3.5 72.2 -0.4 1334.8 3.7 89.6 2.2 247.6 2.2 55.5 160.9 31.8 33.5 0.4 109.2 3.1 355.7 8.7 167.1 2.5 127.1 1.3 49.8 0 21.1 0.8 134.1 2

1446.7 2.8 72.4 0.2 1374.3 3 92.5 3.3 251.3 1.5 56.8 162.8 32.8 33.8 1 111.8 2.3 378.5 6.4 169.1 1.2 129.1 1.5 50.1 0.7 21.8 3.3 136.3 1.6

75087.9 2373.9 1.4 1254.9 2.6 2.9 22956 13900 9056

78703 2409.6 1.5 1200 -4.4 3.4 19963 13762 6200

79840 81482.7 84652.1 89616.9 95438.1 99225.9 2449.3 2491.7 2535.7 2592.2 2652.2 2704.7 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 2 1210.6 1223 1230.9 1264.4 1295.2 1327.2 0.9 1 0.6 2.7 2.4 2.5 4.3 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.8 3.3 22017 24099 27937 27850 33246 23179 16523 18391 20354 22502 28076 19848 5494 5708 7583 5348 5170 3331

101985 2760.2 2.1 1351.6 1.8 3.6 13712 10330 3383

106028 2815.6 2 1377.1 1.9 3.9 16165 12295 3870

110968 2867.8 1.9 1402.8 1.9 3.7 19116 14841 4274

115624 2919.6 1.8 1425.1 1.6 3.6 20026 15841 4185

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

Florida & Metro Forecast

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation

This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t i o n

An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

Defi n i t i o n s Average Annual Wage – Total annual wage divided by annual average employment

●●

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Sector ■■

Disposable Income – After-tax income

➤➤

Gross Metro Product – Measure of output for a specific metropolitan area

■■

Labor Force – Consists of all persons classified as employed or unemployed Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – “The general concept of an MSA is one of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities, which have a high degree of economic and social integration with that nucleus.

These are defined by the Office of Management and Budget as a standard for Federal agencies in the preparation and publication of statistics relating to metropolitan areas.”

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Payroll Employment (from the Current Employment Statistics) – “The total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period, which includes the 12th day of the month. In short, payroll employment numbers are collected from the place of work.”

Per Capita Income – Average obtained by dividing income by population of an area Personal Income – Income received from all sources, including government transfers and business transfer payments, less contributions for government social insurance Real Personal Income – Personal income adjusted for inflation, in 2000 dollars Seasonally Adjusted (SA) – Removes the effects of events that follow a somewhat regular pattern each year.

Adjustments like these allow one to observe the cyclical and other non-seasonal movements in a data series.

Total Employment – Summation of employment from different industry sectors

Example of Sectors: ●●

Manufacturing Sector ■■

Examples include manufacturing metal products, electronic products, vehicles, etc.

●●

Non-manufacturing Sector

●●

Construction Sector ■■

90

Examples include contractors and building construction

Florida & Metro Forecast

■■

Examples include repair and maintenance services along with other miscellaneous services

Federal Government ■■

●●

Examples include historical sites, museums, and food services

Other Services Sector ■■

●●

Examples include colleges, trade schools, medical care, etc.

Leisure and Hospitality Sector ■■

●●

Examples include engineering services, bookkeeping services, and research

Education and Health Sector ■■

●●

Examples include financial institutions, brokerages, insurance

Professional and Business Sector ■■

●●

Examples include broadcasters, publishers, etc.

Financial Activities Sector ■■

●●

Examples include transportation services, shipping services, utilities, etc.

Information Sector ■■

●●

Examples include car dealerships and retail stores

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities ➤➤

●●

Examples include food wholesalers, construction wholesalers, etc.

Retail Trade Sector ➤➤

Household Employment – Number of people employed; data collected by place residence Housing Starts – Data based on the breaking of ground for footings or foundations or beginning a new superstructure on top of an existing foundation

Wholesale Trade Sector

Examples include Postal Service and Department of Defense

State and Local Government ■■

Examples include state and local education, transportation, and administration

Unemployment Rate – Number of unemployed people as a percent of the labor force Wages and Salaries – Gross earnings (not including premium pay such as overtime and bonuses) divided by hours worked

Sources and Useful Links: www.bea.gov/bea/glossary/GlossaryIndex.htm www.bea.gov/bea/regional/definitions www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm www.bls.gov/ces/cesseriespub.htm

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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