Florida and Metro Forecast December 2007

Florida & Metro Forecast 2007-2010

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published December 2007

Message From D ea n T h o ma s L . K e o n

A b o ut U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida ( U C F ) T h e Un i ve r s i t y o f C e n t r a l Fl o r i d a i s a public, multi-campus, metropolitan r e s e a r c h u n i v e r s i t y, d e d i c a t e d t o serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer high-quality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global c o m m u n i t y.

A b o ut t h e C o lle g e o f B u s i n e s s A dmi n i s t r ati o n The College of Business Administration a d v a n c e s t h e u n i v e r s i t y ’s m i s s i o n and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele n a t i o n a l l y a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y.

For decades, children have been reading Dr. Seuss books. In fact, this time of year, the Grinch is quite popular. Not only are these stories enjoyable to read, but many of them include important morals or parables. As you examine this three-year economic forecast, you will actually notice references from Dr. Seuss, along with Sisyphus from Greek mythology. Dr. Sean Snaith’s approach to presenting this forecast is entertaining as well as informative.

The topic is quite serious however. Florida is growing at an incredible pace, affecting our economy in every aspect. Subjects such as the housing sector, unemployment rates and the gross state product are addressed in this publication. I encourage you to read through the data carefully.

I want to wish each and every one of you a Happy New Year. Thank you for your support throughout 2007, and I am looking forward to addressing you again next quarter, I am, I am!

n Thomas L . Keo Sincerely,

Thomas L. Keon Dean

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F lo r i da F o r eca s t 2007 - 2010 December 2007 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Barbie Barontini, Editor Jeff Slanker, Researcher Amanda Silvestri, Researcher Jennifer Reid, Researcher Nathan Goldschlag, Researcher Trina Banerji, Marketing Intern

This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Summary................................................. 6-10 Florida Forecast Tables...................................... 12-17

Florida News Summaries....................................... 27 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach.......... 29-33 Gainesville......................................................... 34-38 Jacksonville....................................................... 39-43 Lakeland............................................................ 44-48 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach............... 49-53 Naples-Marco Island......................................... 54-58 Ocala................................................................. 59-63 Orlando-Kissimmee.......................................... 64-68 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville......................... 69-73 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent.............................. 74-78 Tallahassee........................................................ 79-83 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.................... 84-88 Industry Location Quotient..................................... 89 Definitions.............................................................. 90

Tab l e o f c o n t e n t s

Florida Forecast Charts...................................... 19-26

F l o r i d a Summa r y

F l o r i d a P r o pe r t y Ta x Ref o r m : Si s y p h u s a n d S n ee t c h e s “And I saw Sisyphus at his endless task raising his prodigious stone with both his hands. With hands and feet he tried to roll it up to the top of the hill, but always, just before he could roll it over on to the other side, its weight would be too much for him, and the pitiless stone would come thundering down again on to the plain. Then he would begin trying to push it up hill again, and the sweat ran off him and the steam rose after him.”

The Odyssey, BOOK XI – Homer

Now the Star-bellied Sneetches had bellies with stars.

The Plain-bellied Sneetches had none upon thars.

The stars weren’t so big; they were really quite small.

You would think such a thing wouldn’t matter at all.

But because they had stars, all the Star-bellied Sneetches would brag, “We’re the best kind of Sneetch on the beaches.”

With their snoots in the air, they would sniff and they’d snort, “We’ll have nothing to do with the Plain-bellied sort.”

And whenever they met some, when they were out walking, they’d hike right on past them without even talking.

When the Star-bellied children went out to play ball, could the Plain-bellies join in their game? Not at all!

You could only play ball if your bellies had stars, and the Plain-bellied children had none upon thars.

When the Star-bellied Sneetches had frankfurter roasts, or picnics or parties or marshmallow toasts, they never invited the Plain-bellied Sneetches.

Left them out cold in the dark of the beaches.

Kept them away; never let them come near, and that’s how they treated them year after year.

THE SNEETCHES – Dr. Seuss

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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Observing the process surrounding the struggle for property tax reform has been a challenging task. Tax reform proposals and special sessions were as profligate as love bugs during mating season and equally as difficult to track. The struggle brings to my mind the myth of Sisyphus as described by Homer in The Odyssey.

The whole process of bringing the property tax reform to the point where we currently stand has been an arduous one that has yet to bear fruit. Many different proposals have been offered and labored over by legislators, and a number of special sessions were convened to work through the issue. Legislators, not unlike Sisyphus, pushed boulder after boulder up the hill only to see them, one after the other, roll back down again. The boulder is once again perched precariously near the top of the hill as a proposal to amend the constitution awaits voters on January 29.

What will happen? I have got to go with the boulder over Sisyphus. Even if it does pass, we still have the Sneetches factor to deal with, which we will touch upon in a moment.

Typically, the reference to something as a Sisyphean task is to label it a pointless, difficult, and frustrating exercise. By invoking the image of Sysiphus in the context of Florida’s property tax debate, I do it in the sense of the philosopher Albert Camus’ interpretation of this myth. Camus sees Sisyphus not as a tragic figure doomed to forever roll the boulder up the hill only to have it roll down again; rather, Camus sees virtue in the act of rolling the boulder itself and imagines that Sisyphus is happy. There is virtue to be found in the struggle for property tax reform as well, not in exactly the same sense as Camus implied for Sisyphus, as I do not think legislators find joy in a never-ending attempt to rein in property tax growth.

Rather, it brings to the foreground the need for Florida to reexamine its tax structure from top to bottom and rethink how we manage the state’s economy. The struggle with property tax reform demonstrates very clearly that the current structure is insufficient. Florida will be a trillion-dollar economy within five years, and this growth will bring with it a variety of challenges

F l o r i d a Summa r y

that our current structure does not seem to be capable of handling. A business management strategy that is effective for a mom-and-pop operation will simply not work for a Fortune 500 corporation.

Our need to have a tax system that is equitable and that provides sufficient funding to both state and local governments to meet the needs and challenges facing Florida has been brought to the foreground by the struggles with property tax reform. Florida is in its economic adolescence. Growth spurts have resulted in a body that is large and ungainly and a mind that has not fully come to terms with its new reality. Florida needs to play catch-up with how it governs its new economic body.

Florida no longer can be touted as a cheap place to live or do business and therefore we can no longer govern on the cheap. The state needs to rethink the tax structure from top to bottom, and all possible types of tax reform must be considered, including the dreaded income tax. An honest, apolitical analysis of Florida’s tax structure is the very least we should expect to gain from the struggle to reform property taxes; otherwise, all of this struggle will truly have been a Sisyphean task of the pointless kind.

S n ee t c h e s Even if the constitutional amendment passes the January vote, there will be challenges in the courts that follow its passage, particularly the portability of the Save Our Homes. Under portability, the longtime homeowners would be able to take their Save Our Home benefits with them wherever they moved in Florida. This particular element of the property tax amendment essentially creates a privileged class of Star-bellied Sneetches, namely those who have owned a home in Florida for a long time. Those of us who recently relocated or decided to buy a home for the first time in Florida would not have stars upon ours and will be the Plain-bellied sort.

If two home buyers purchase identical houses in the same neighborhood at the same time, we would expect that they would pay the same amount of property taxes, right? Under the portability of Save Our Homes, this is not true if one of the home buyers is a long-time resident of Florida. Long-time residents

are like the Sneetches with stars upon thars, and that star entitles them to pay less property tax than a newer resident who is like a Sneetch with no star upon thars.

Not only do newer residents not get invites to frankfurter roasts, or picnics or parties or marshmallow toasts, they have to pay higher taxes than their neighbor – forever. Furthermore, any increases in the tax rate will be born disproportionately by the Plainbellies. Fire department needs a new truck? Plainbellies will pay for a bigger share of it. Need a new school? You can bet the Star-bellies will not be paying their fair share.

What if the federal government implemented a similar benefit for income tax based on when your ancestors arrived in the country? If your family tree has deeper roots, you pay a lower tax than if you are a first-generation American. Oh, your ancestors arrived on the Mayflower? You are entitled to pay much less in income tax as a result. How long would it be before such a system would be struck down (not that it would ever make it into law in the first place)? Somehow, we are doing the equivalent with the portability of Save Our Homes, and I can’t believe that if it passes on January 29 that it would survive a challenge in the courts. By the way, I never wanted to go to your marshmallow toast, anyway.

T h e H o u s i n g Sec t o r a n d F l o r i d a ’ s E c o n o m y: Housing has gone from an eag l e t o a n a l ba t r o s s .

W i l l i t s o o n bec o me a vulture?

When the housing sector was running at full steam, it helped the U.S. and Florida’s economies to soar like an eagle. In 2004, 2005, and a portion of 2006, the economy was running at a frenetic pace. Housing prices and construction employment were both growing at a China-like pace. In Florida from 20042006, employment in the construction sector grew at an average of more than 10% per year. This rate helped boost the economy and turned on the afterburners for an economy that had already emerged from recession

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F l o r i d a Summa r y

and was expanding at an improving pace. Florida was, indeed, soaring like an eagle in the midst of this historic housing boom.

Every party must come to an end, and, inevitably, the housing revelry has ended. The housing hangover that we are now experiencing is in direct proportion to the size of the boom. The eagle has now become an albatross around Florida’s neck. The sector that generated an average 10% job growth for the previous three years is now shedding jobs. Other sectors that were at ground zero of the housing boom are suffering as well: the retail sector, in particular building supply and garden stores, are losing jobs, finance as it relates to housing, and other areas that are directly tied into the construction or purchase of houses.

The housing slowdown has certainly hampered economic growth in the state, but will it ultimately drive Florida and/or the U.S. into recession? Is the housing market poised to become a vulture hovering over the corpse of an economic expansion that it helped to fuel and then, subsequently, helped to snuff out?

Over the course of 2007, there were various predictions about the Florida economy, with some observers estimating a 60% or 70% probability of recession. These predictions have turned out to be incorrect, and as we near the end of 2007, the job losses that have affected housing-related sectors continue to remain contained. What will 2008 hold in store for the economy?

There is a greater amount of economic uncertainty currently surrounding the economic outlook than there has been in recent memory and, perhaps, there is as much uncertainty as there was during parts of the 1970s. The Federal Reserve Bank has cut interest rates twice in response to concern over the economy and may not be finished just yet. The federal government is rolling out a mortgage plan designed to limit the impact of adjustable rate mortgages and prevent an anticipated surge in foreclosures in the first half of 2008.

The Bush administration plan, like the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank, will not be a panacea for what ails the housing sector. The excess supply of housing will not instantaneously be absorbed as a result of

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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

cutting interest rates or freezing ARMs; only time will help, and, as a result, we expect the next couple of quarters to be filled not only with consternation but also with much slower economic growth than we have been experiencing.

Hig h l ig h t s o f t h e F l o r i d a F o r eca s t 2007-2010 • Payroll employment forecasted to grow at 1.7% in 2008, with growth accelerating to 2.8% in 2009 and easing to 2.6% by 2010.

• High-growth sectors during 2008-2010 forecasted to include Professional and Business Services (6.1%), Transportation, Warehousing and Utility (3.1%), Finance (2.4%), and Education and Health Services (2.4%).

• Florida’s housing sector has gone from an eagle to an albatross. Will it soon become a vulture?

• Housing starts hit their nadir in 2008, but by 2010, housing starts will return to the same levels they were at the start of the decade.

• The Construction sector continues to shed jobs in 2008, but employment growth resumes in 2009 and accelerates into 2010.

• Gross State Product growth slows to 4.3% in 2008 before recovering to average 6.0% growth in 2009-2010.

• Unemployment rates rise through the first half of 2008 and stabilize at a more sustainable 4.2% through the end of the forecast horizon.

• Personal income growth decelerating from 6.6% in 2007 to 6.2% in 2008; growth drifts upward from there to hit 6.4% in 2010.

• Retail sales to contract in the 1st quarter of 2008, exhibit moderate growth in the 2nd quarter, and average 4.4% growth in the second half of the year. Over the 2009-2010 time span, retail sales will grow at an average pace of 5.7%.

F l o r i d a Summa r y

Ou t l o o k f o r F l o r i d a 2007-2010 G r o s s S t a t e P r o d uc t

The Florida economy will see accelerating growth over our forecast horizon after slowing through the first three quarters of 2008. Aggregate output of the state’s nominal Gross State Product (GSP), the statelevel analogue to Gross Domestic Product, expanded at a rate of 7.1% in 2007. From 2007 to 2010, GSP will grow at an average rate of 5.4%. During this period, growth will be the strongest in 2010 at 6.1%, after slowing to 4.3% in 2008 and rising again to 5.9% in 2009. This predicted level of growth is above the nominal GDP growth rate forecast for the national economy during the same time period (4.53%). Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $880 billion by 2010 as Florida continues closing in on becoming a trillion-dollar economy.

P e r s o n a l I n c o me , Re t ai l Sa l e s , a n d A u t o Sa l e s

Personal income growth will decelerate through the rest of 2007 and through 2008, with growth averaging 6.3% during 2008-2010. Growth will begin to strengthen in 2009 and then flatten out in 2010. Real disposable income is expected to grow an average of 4.7% per year from 2008 through 2010 after another spike in inflation, and the housing slump depresses growth in 2007 to 3.5%. In 2009 and 2010, receding price inflation and a resurgent economy will, once again, power real disposable income growth of 5.0% and 4.6%, both of which are above average growth rates during the previous 10 years.

Near record highs for energy prices, coupled with surging property taxes and property insurance rates, will continue to be a drain on consumer’s budgets.

This year, prices have oscillated between $2 and $3, and, currently, are near the top of that range. An uneventful hurricane season kept things from being any worse. High energy prices, the housing market, taxes, and insurance has worked to erode consumer confidence and spending to some extent. This will lead to the slowest growth in retail spending since 2001,

with a 2008 growth of just 2.3%. The slowdown in spending growth will be pronounced at the beginning of the year thanks to the downward pull of the abovementioned factors and post-holiday shopping fatigue.

Consumers will begin spending more freely again in 2008-2010, during which annual average growth of retail sales will be 5.7%. Retail spending will reach nearly $300 billion in 2009 and approach $316 billion the following year The persistence of gasoline prices near the $3-pergallon level and a general softening of consumer confidence continue to hamper purchases of trucks and SUVs. Vehicle fuel efficiency remains an important characteristic in the decision to purchase new vehicles for consumers. Foreign manufacturers of fuel-efficient (hybrid and gasoline) vehicles continue to gobble market share at the expense of American firms, who still continue to struggle as they try to adapt to the new economic environment in which they find themselves.

We are forecasting an easing of energy prices, but large declines in energy prices are not in the cards, and the general slowing of the economy will both conspire to bring new passenger car and truck registrations down for a third straight year in 2008. Domestic auto dealers will still have to offer incentives and low- or no-interest financing to get consumers to purchase vehicles over the next year. After two years of declines, we are forecasting vehicle registrations to begin to grow again in 2009, but total registrations will only be at 1999 levels.

E mp l o y me n t

Payroll employment growth in the state is expected to grow by 1.6% for 2007; this figure is compared to national job growth of 1.3% for the same year. For the next three years of our forecast horizon, employment growth should continue to outpace that of the nation overall (1.4% U.S. average payroll employment growth, 2008-2010) and will average 2.4% in Florida.

The growth rate will accelerate from the second half of 2008 through 2009, and new jobs will be created at an annual rate of 2.8% in 2009, before growth eases back to 2.6% in 2010.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9

F l o r i d a Summa r y

The Construction sector, which had experienced blistering double-digit growth during the housing boom, will continue to show the effects of the significant cooling in the housing market. Housing starts have fallen dramatically and are expected to decline further and hit bottom in 2008. Cumulative job losses could approach 30,000 by the end of 2008, after which a recovery in homebuilding is expected to take hold. Job growth will reappear in 2009 and will accelerate into 2010 and hit 3.4% in that year. The overall level of employment in 2010 will be around the same level as the housing boom peak employment level reached in 2006.

The Professional and Business Services sector is a sector that continues to show robust growth in Florida and in the nation as well. 2008 growth is expected to come in at 3.8%, and we are forecasting this growth to accelerate, along with the overall economy, to 7.6% in 2009 before tapering slightly to 6.9% in 2010.

The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector should also see growth accelerate in 2008 through 2010, with growth rising to 1.9% in 2008 and 3.6% in 2009 before further accelerating to 3.9% in 2010. This surge in growth follows energy-related stagnation in 2007. The Transportation, Warehousing, and Utility sector growth has been hampered by volatile energy prices in the past couple of years that resulted in employment growth dropping from 3.8% in 2005 to a forecast growth of -0.3% for 2007. As energy prices settle in the future and as the economy enjoys a rebound from the housing woes, this sector will resume its upward trend. This sector will be further buoyed by ongoing growth in international trade due, in part, to record lows in the value of the dollar.

Manufacturing will continue to contract in Florida and throughout the nation as well. Between 2007 and 2009, an additional 8,600 jobs will be lost. The two factors continue to drive the fall in manufacturing employment, increasing pressure from emerging economies and increasing productivity of labor. The weak dollar is also helping U.S.-manufactured goods gain some competitiveness in the midst of this sector’s contraction. The hemorrhaging of jobs from this sector will have slowed in 2009, and we are predicting job growth to return to this sector in 2010.

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Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

U n emp l o y me n t

Unemployment rates in the state averaged an unsustainable 3.3% in 2006 and will continue to gradually rise to near 4.2% in 2008. Unemployment rates in the state will continue to remain below unemployment rates at the national level, which are expected to rise to 5.0% and fall back to 4.6% from 2008 to 2010. Job losses in a few sectors will put upward pressure on unemployment rates, but growth in the remaining sectors should be able to absorb much of this excess labor.

Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1999

2000

2001

2002

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

2003

2004

2005

December 2007

2006

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.2 616.8 663.3 3.8 9.9 9.1 7.6 3.2 6.1 5.9 6.6 487.1 521.4 552.6 578.4 1.8 7.0 6.0 4.7 3.2 11.8 7.4 5.2 442.4 470.8 494.1 512.0 3.3 6.4 5.0 3.6 2.2 3.6 1.7 3.1 607.2 666.6 713.5 559.0 6.9 8.6 9.8 7.1 520.4 548.1 585.1 609.9 4.6 5.3 6.7 4.3

Employment and 0.7 0.5 1.6 1.6 4.7 5.7 4.7 5.8

Labor Force (Household Survey 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Ch

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

t ab l e s

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

1.9 2.6 -7.6 8.2 0.3 -2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.9

Population and Migration 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 18,134.2 1 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 -10.9 -6.7 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 272.8 182.5 211.6 56.2 61.2

204.0 157.4 46.6

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

2.9

Consumer Prices 2.8 4.7

5.0

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S. (%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2000$) (%Ch)

423.8 5.3 5.1 434.3 3.6 8.6 380.0 3.5 3.0 442.6 6.1 453.3 4.1

457.5 8.0 8.0 457.5 5.3 8.6 398.4 4.8 4.8 471.3 6.5 471.3 4.0

478.6 4.6 3.5 468.8 2.5 6.6 410.5 3.0 1.9 497.4 5.5 484.9 2.9

495.5 3.5 1.8 478.5 2.1 0.7 428.4 4.4 3.1 522.7 5.1 497.3 2.6

Personal Income and GSP 514.4 565.2 616.8 663.3 3.8 9.9 9.1 7.6 3.2 6.1 5.9 6.6 487.1 521.4 552.6 578.4 1.8 7.0 6.0 4.7 3.2 11.8 7.4 5.2 442.4 470.8 494.1 512.0 3.3 6.4 5.0 3.6 2.2 3.6 1.7 3.1 607.2 666.6 713.5 559.0 6.9 8.6 9.8 7.1 520.4 548.1 585.1 609.9 4.6 5.3 6.7 4.3

707.2 6.6 6.5 601.8 4.1 1.8 530.2 3.5 3.5 751.8 5.4 627.7 2.9

751.1 6.2 5.1 628.9 4.5 3.8 554.6 4.6 3.4 783.8 4.3 643.6 2.5

798.5 6.3 5.0 659.6 4.9 6.5 582.5 5.0 3.7 830.1 5.9 668.7 3.9

849.7 6.4 5.1 691.6 4.9 6.4 609.2 4.6 3.3 880.4 6.1 695.4 4.0

Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

2.3 1.8 4.0 4.2

2.3 2.1 3.8 4.0

1.6 2.1 4.2 5.0

1.9 2.0 4.2 4.8

1.9 1.9 4.2 4.6

1.2 1.7 -0.5 -2.6 -2.2 -2.0 -2.3 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.5 3.8 3.1 3.1 0.4 0.2 1.9

1.6 2.8 0.6 1.4 -1.2 -2.0 -0.9 3.6 2.2 2.5 2.9 7.6 2.7 1.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

1.4 2.6 -0.3 3.4 0.6 -1.1 1.4 3.9 2.5 1.0 2.8 6.9 1.5 0.8 1.3 3.0 1.2

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) 0.7 0.5 1.9 3.1 4.0 3.8 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.2 2.6 4.7 5.7 5.3 4.7 3.8 3.3 3.7 4.7 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change)

Total nonfarm U.S. Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. & Business Services Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

(%Ch)

12

2.4 2.9 -6.8 3.5 -0.8 -2.3 -0.1 1.5 1.0 2.7 2.7 9.4 0.8 1.9 8.5 0.1 1.3

2.2 3.7 -1.8 5.7 -0.1 -2.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.2 2.5 7.3 2.8 2.4 5.2 3.8 3.7

0.0 1.3 -7.8 3.6 -4.9 -6.4 -4.1 -0.9 -0.2 -0.4 1.4 2.8 3.1 1.8 0.3 -2.4 2.9

-1.1 0.1 -10.3 1.2 -6.0 -3.7 -7.2 -2.8 -0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.2 2.8 0.4 -5.6 0.4 1.7

-0.3 1.1 -1.2 4.2 -4.4 -3.4 -4.9 -3.2 0.5 -0.2 2.3 1.3 3.8 1.9 -3.6 3.4 1.1

1.1 3.4 0.2 10.2 0.2 -2.1 1.5 1.6 3.4 2.7 3.8 5.1 3.0 4.6 -2.0 0.4 1.4

1.7 4.0 -0.8 12.3 1.2 -1.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 5.0 6.3 2.5 2.8 0.2 1.6 1.4

1.9 2.6 -7.6 8.2 0.3 -2.5 1.6 1.2 2.7 2.0 3.2 3.9 2.5 1.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.9

1.3 1.6 -1.5 -2.1 -1.6 -3.0 -0.9 -0.3 2.3 1.0 1.1 1.9 3.5 3.8 -1.2 -1.3 2.6

Population and Migration 15,798.1 16,089.4 16,396.5 16,717.5 17,034.6 17,417.1 17,802.9 18,134.2 18,487.3 18,847.9 19,213.9 19,583.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 63.0 63.2 69.5 69.0 74.5 86.0 76.5 69.6 75.3 76.2 77.4 77.8 -10.9 -6.7 8.4 1.2 1.5 0.5 1.6 0.4 10.3 -0.4 9.3 17.3

163.4 112.3 51.1

158.4 110.9 47.5

168.0 124.7 43.3

183.1 133.9 49.2

208.3 158.9 49.4

Housing 238.7 272.8 182.5 211.6 56.2 61.2

204.0 157.4 46.6

108.9 81.9 27.0

87.8 66.6 21.2

124.6 95.3 29.3

152.5 120.5 32.1

1.2

3.3

3.1

1.5

2.9

Consumer Prices 2.8 4.7

5.0

3.9

2.0

1.4

1.6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

701.4

712.9

724.3

734.7

745.4

756.5

768.0

780.0

792.4

804.7

817.1

829.9

843.2

856.3

869.3

6.6

6.5

7.0

6.5

6.3

6.1

6.0

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4 597.7

6.8 605.0

6.5 610.2

5.3 617.6

5.2 625.1

4.9 632.4

4.9 640.4

4.9 648.1

5.0 655.7

5.1 663.3

5.1 671.2

5.1 679.3

5.1 687.7

5.1

5.1

695.8

703.8

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago)

4.2 0.6

4.3 2.2

3.8 2.4

3.9 2.3

4.6 3.1

4.5 4.3

5.0 5.6

4.9 6.4

4.9 6.6

4.9 6.5

4.8 6.6

4.8 6.3

4.9 6.4

4.9 6.4

4.8 6.4

Disp. Income (Bil. 2000$)

526.6

532.9

537.4

543.6

551.3

558.1

565.3

571.9

579.1

585.9

592.9

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) GSP (Bil. $)

3.7 3.4 749.0

3.8 4.1 758.4

3.3 3.0 763.9

3.8 2.7 769.7

4.7 3.6 778.0

4.7 3.4 788.3

5.2 3.9 799.2

5.2 3.9 812.0

5.0 3.7 824.2

5.0 3.7 836.0

4.9 3.6 848.2

598.2 4.6

605.6 4.6

612.9 4.6

620.1 4.6

3.3 860.8

3.3 874.3

3.3 887.1

3.3 899.5

Florida (%Chg Year Ago) U.S. (%Chg Year Ago) Personal Income (Bil. 2000$)

(%Chg Year Ago)

5.4

5.6

5.2

4.6

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.5

5.9

6.0

6.1

6.0

6.1

6.1

6.0

GSP (Bil. 2000$)

625.9

632.1

634.1

636.1

640.2

646.0

652.2

659.1

665.7

671.9

678.2

684.9

692.3

699.1

705.4

(%Chg Year Ago)

2.9

3.3

2.8

2.8

2.3

2.2

2.9

3.6

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.9

4.0

4.0

4.0

Employment

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.5

Labor Force

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.0

2.3

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.1

1.9 2.1

2.0 2.0

1.9 2.0

1.9 2.0

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.9

1.9 1.8

FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

3.4 4.5

4.0 4.6

4.1 4.8

4.1 4.9

4.2 5.0

4.2 5.0

4.2 5.0

4.2 4.9

4.2 4.8

4.2 4.8

4.2 4.7

4.2 4.7

4.2 4.6

4.2 4.5

4.2 4.5

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change Year Ago)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change Year Ago) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods

1.7 -1.5 -2.2 -1.9 -3.3

1.6 -0.5 -3.2 -1.5 -3.1

1.5 -2.5 -3.4 -1.2 -2.1

1.4 -2.9 -3.6 -1.9 -1.9

1.5 -1.7 -3.7 -1.9 -1.7

1.9 1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -2.0

2.2 1.1 -1.1 -2.4 -2.3

2.7 0.8 0.5 -2.3 -2.4

2.9 0.8 1.5 -1.7 -2.2

2.8 0.7 1.7 -0.9 -1.8

2.7 0.3 1.8 -0.1 -1.6

2.6 0.1 2.1 0.3 -1.5

2.5 -0.3 3.1 0.5 -1.4

2.6 -0.5 3.9 0.7 -1.0

2.6 -0.6 4.5 0.9 -0.6

Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-1.3 -0.7

-0.8 -0.6

-0.8 0.4

-1.9 0.8

-2.0 1.3

-2.8 2.6

-2.4 2.8

-2.2 2.8

-1.4 3.7

-0.5 3.9

0.5 4.1

1.2 4.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities

2.0 1.1 1.1

2.7 1.0 1.2

2.4 0.9 0.7

2.0 0.6 0.5

1.8 0.5 1.2

1.7 1.1 2.0

1.6 1.9 2.5

1.9 2.4 3.0

2.3 2.8 2.9

2.2 2.7 2.8

2.5 2.2 3.0

2.5 1.5 3.0

1.3 3.9 2.6 1.1 2.9

1.5 3.8 2.5 0.8 2.7

1.5 3.8 2.5 0.5 2.6

Prof. & Business Services

2.3

1.1

1.5

1.7

2.9

4.8

5.8

7.2

7.8

7.8

7.6

7.0

6.9

7.0

6.8

3.7 3.6 -0.8 -1.5

3.8 4.9 -1.6 -1.5

3.6 4.9 -1.8 -1.2

3.3 4.8 -0.6 -0.7

3.0 3.6 -0.2 -0.5

3.3 2.0 1.3 1.0

3.1 2.0 1.2 1.2

3.1 2.3 0.7 1.1

2.9 1.8 0.7 0.8

2.4 1.5 0.8 0.6

2.2 0.8 1.1 1.3

1.9 0.3 1.6 5.9

1.5 0.5 1.3 5.2

1.4 1.0 1.2 1.5

1.3 1.4 1.1 -0.7

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.1

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.3

Edu. & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't.

State & Local Gov't.

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Chg Year Ago) Net Migration (thous) (%Chg Year Ago)

18,442.9 18,531.9 18,621.5 18,711.7 18,802.6 18,893.1 18,984.1 19,075.8 19,168.0 19,259.7 19,352.0 19,444.8 19,538.3 19,630.0 19,722.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 75.9 13.6

74.7 5.7

75.3 1.2

75.9 0.8

76.4 0.6

76.0 1.8

76.6 1.7

118.4

99.5

89.4

79.2

81.0

90.5

100.3

88.8 29.6

75.4 24.1

66.9 22.5

58.5 20.7

63.4 17.6

68.9 21.6

75.5 24.8

4.0

3.8

4.9

3.6

1.9

1.6

77.6 1.6

77.1 1.4

77.6 1.4

78.1 1.3

78.7 1.3

76.9 -0.2

77.4 -0.2

111.5

120.9

129.1

136.9

143.2

149.0

155.7

162.3

84.8 26.7

91.8 29.1

98.7 30.5

105.9 31.1

112.0 31.2

117.3 31.6

123.1 32.6

129.4 32.9

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

77.1 1.6 Housing

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Chg Year Ago)

0.8

1.0

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8,127.8 8,149.8 8,178.7 8,202.9 8,246.8 8,301.2 8,358.9 8,421.6 8,483.1 8,535.2 8,585.9 8,637.9 8,699.3 8,756.5 8,807.3

Manufacturing

396.5

396.1

393.2

391.5

389.1

386.1

383.8

382.6

382.6

382.7

383.3

383.8

384.5

385.6

386.7

Durable Goods

273.2

273.5

271.1

269.7

267.9

265.9

264.4

263.7

264.1

264.7

265.8

266.8

267.6

268.7

269.9

Wood Products

18.8

18.8

18.3

18.0

17.5

17.2

17.0

17.0

17.1

17.3

17.4

17.6

17.8

17.9

18.2

Computer & Electronics

48.3

47.9

47.4

47.1

47.0

46.6

45.9

45.5

45.2

45.1

45.2

45.3

45.1

44.9

44.5

Transportation Equipment 1,709.8 1,700.3 1,693.7 1,693.5 1,690.3 1,686.4 1,693.0 1,698.2 1,712.4 1,725.6 1,738.4 1,743.2 1,747.1 1,755.7 1,768.5 Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

123.3

122.6

122.2

121.8

121.2

120.2

119.4

118.9

118.5

118.0

117.5

117.1

116.9

116.8

116.8

29.8

29.8

29.8

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

29.9

7,731.3 7,753.6 7,785.5 7,811.4 7,857.7 7,915.1 7,975.1 8,039.0 8,100.5 8,152.5 8,202.6 8,254.1 8,314.8 8,370.9 8,420.7 6.5

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

Construction

627.8

617.8

615.5

610.3

604.8

605.5

609.1

613.1

613.9

615.8

619.9

626.0

633.1

640.1

647.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

243.7

243.0

244.2

246.3

247.0

249.3

251.0

253.2

256.0

259.0

261.4

263.4

266.0

268.8

271.3

Wholesale Trade

353.6

356.8

358.4

359.0

360.1

362.8

364.2

366.0

368.3

370.9

373.2

375.2

377.7

380.3

382.5

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Business Services

1,015.6 1,015.3 1,014.9 1,017.7 1,020.6 1,026.1 1,033.9 1,041.7 1,049.4 1,053.3 1,056.7 1,057.7 1,060.5 1,061.5 1,062.0 166.3

164.4

164.4

165.1

165.9

166.5

166.5

166.2

167.1

167.9

168.4

168.8

169.3

169.9

170.3

1,365.9 1,365.0 1,375.2 1,383.2 1,405.1 1,430.7 1,455.5 1,483.3 1,514.4 1,542.7 1,566.2 1,587.7 1,619.4 1,650.5 1,672.3

Admin. & Support

831.0

827.1

832.0

835.1

852.6

872.6

891.8

914.3

941.2

965.4

984.7 1,002.2 1,029.5 1,056.5 1,074.5

Prof. Sci & Tech

461.8

464.7

469.8

474.5

478.6

483.8

489.1

494.0

498.0

501.6

505.4

509.0

513.0

516.7

520.0

73.1

73.2

73.4

73.5

73.9

74.2

74.6

75.0

75.3

75.6

76.1

76.5

77.0

77.4

77.8

Financial Activities

552.2

552.2

553.0

554.5

558.8

563.4

566.8

571.0

574.9

579.3

583.9

588.0

591.3

594.9

598.8

Real Estate & Rent

178.5

178.5

178.5

178.8

179.5

180.3

181.0

181.8

182.7

183.5

184.2

184.9

185.7

186.4

187.1

373.8

373.7

374.5

375.7

379.3

383.1

385.8

389.2

392.2

395.8

399.6

403.1

405.6

408.5

411.8

Mgmt. of Co.

Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service

1,002.0 1,008.3 1,016.1 1,023.0 1,031.6 1,041.2 1,047.3 1,054.4 1,061.6 1,066.7 1,070.6 1,074.1 1,078.0 1,081.8 1,085.0

Education Services

130.7

132.2

132.7

133.2

133.4

133.9

134.5

135.1

135.8

136.4

136.9

137.3

137.8

138.4

138.9

Health Services

871.3

876.1

883.5

889.8

898.2

907.3

912.8

919.2

925.8

930.3

933.7

936.8

940.2

943.4

946.1

933.7

950.0

957.1

960.4

967.2

968.8

976.6

983.0

984.3

982.9

984.1

985.6

989.1

993.1

998.1

346.2

349.1

349.7

350.9

352.1

352.6

352.4

352.0

352.1

352.5

352.7

352.8

353.1

354.0

354.8

Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government

1,117.8 1,125.4 1,130.6 1,134.7 1,138.1 1,141.9 1,145.4 1,148.8 1,151.9 1,155.0 1,159.2 1,168.2 1,170.9 1,169.7 1,171.5

Federal Gov't.

126.7

State & Local Gov't

991.1 1,000.3 1,005.4 1,009.1 1,012.2 1,015.5 1,018.7 1,021.8 1,024.9 1,027.9 1,030.9 1,033.9 1,037.2 1,040.6 1,044.1

125.0

125.2

*Quarterly at an annual rate

14

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

125.6

126.0

126.3

126.7

126.9

127.0

127.1

128.3

134.4

133.7

129.1

127.4

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 4. Employment Annual 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

6,815.8 7,069.4 7,160.0 7,169.1 7,250.4 7,499.0 7,799.9 8,006.0 8,135.9 8,277.5 8,506.5 8,725.2

Manufacturing

463.9

463.4

440.8

414.1

395.9

396.8

401.6

402.6

396.2

387.6

382.8

385.1

Durable Goods

304.1

307.8

295.2

273.9

260.5

264.3

271.5

275.7

273.2

267.0

264.6

268.2

Wood Products

16.7

16.7

17.2

18.1

17.6

18.2

18.7

19.0

18.7

17.4

17.2

17.9

Computer & Electronics

67.6

69.7

67.2

59.1

52.8

51.9

50.7

49.8

48.1

46.6

45.3

44.9

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

2,087.1 2,055.6 1,937.8 1,828.9 1,774.0 1,765.7 1,771.3 1,764.8 1,706.3 1,690.8 1,718.7 1,753.6 159.8

155.6

145.6

140.2

135.4

132.5

130.1

126.8

123.1

120.7

118.2

116.9

36.8

36.1

34.6

34.6

33.5

32.6

31.7

30.6

29.8

29.9

29.9

29.9

6,351.9 6,606.0 6,719.3 6,755.0 6,854.5 7,102.3 7,398.4 7,603.4 7,739.7 7,889.8 8,123.7 8,340.1 8.9

8.7

8.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

Construction

412.5

435.9

451.7

457.1

476.2

525.0

589.6

637.1

623.6

607.4

615.7

636.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

241.5

245.9

243.8

236.8

229.2

232.8

241.7

244.6

243.8

248.4

257.4

267.4

Wholesale Trade

303.4

313.7

312.9

312.2

313.8

324.5

337.9

347.1

355.2

361.5

369.6

378.9

Retail Trade

908.5

937.9

934.5

923.1

920.8

946.0

985.4 1,004.8 1,014.4 1,024.6 1,050.3 1,060.4

Information

178.6

187.9

188.3

177.8

171.3

167.9

168.2

Prof. & Business Services

167.3

165.3

166.0

167.4

169.6

1,031.8 1,107.4 1,138.2 1,140.3 1,155.6 1,214.9 1,290.9 1,340.8 1,366.4 1,418.6 1,526.6 1,632.5

Admin. & Support

634.9

686.3

704.9

700.2

706.7

743.6

789.8

818.7

830.7

863.0

951.4 1,040.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

336.3

361.8

371.2

374.7

382.8

401.9

429.1

448.8

462.6

481.5

499.7

514.7

60.7

59.3

62.1

65.3

66.2

69.4

72.1

73.2

73.2

74.1

75.5

77.2

Financial Activities

451.8

462.9

469.3

474.9

485.6

504.2

529.6

546.4

552.3

560.9

577.3

593.3

Real Estate & Rent

138.0

143.5

147.0

150.2

153.4

162.2

172.4

178.3

178.7

179.9

183.1

186.0

Fin. & Insurance

313.8

319.5

322.4

324.7

332.2

342.0

357.2

368.1

373.6

381.0

394.2

407.2

Edu. & Health Service

793.3

815.5

840.6

863.7

896.4

923.5

946.6

969.9 1,004.2 1,035.8 1,063.3 1,079.7

Education Services

84.7

91.5

94.5

99.7

108.2

116.9

122.8

125.3

Mgmt. of Co.

130.8

133.8

136.1

138.1

708.6

724.0

746.1

764.0

788.1

806.6

823.9

844.6

873.4

902.0

927.3

941.6

Leisure & Hospitality

776.4

794.9

809.2

812.6

828.2

866.0

890.4

904.6

939.4

968.2

983.6

991.5

Other Services

279.8

293.9

299.4

310.2

317.2

324.3

329.8

336.7

347.2

352.0

352.3

353.7

Government

965.5 1,001.4 1,023.2 1,039.2 1,053.0 1,066.1 1,081.2 1,097.7 1,121.3 1,140.0 1,153.7 1,170.1

Health Services

Federal Gov't.

120.5

125.0

121.7

122.2

126.3

126.8

128.7

127.5

125.8

State & Local Gov't

845.0

876.4

901.5

917.0

926.8

939.4

952.5

970.2

995.5 1,013.9 1,026.4 1,039.0

126.1

127.4

131.1

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

15

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2007Q2 2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

701.4

712.9

724.3

734.7

745.4

756.5

768.0

780.0

792.4

804.7

817.1

829.9

843.2

856.3

869.3

Wages & Salaries

340.2

344.9

349.3

353.7

358.4

363.9

369.5

375.6

381.1

387.0

392.9

399.2

405.2

411.3

417.2

Other Labor Income

73.4

74.2

75.0

76.0

76.8

77.7

78.8

79.9

81.1

82.2

83.3

84.5

85.9

87.1

88.4

Nonfarm

40.1

40.2

40.4

41.0

41.7

42.4

43.1

44.0

44.8

45.5

46.3

47.1

48.0

48.8

49.6

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Property Income

185.6

189.8

194.1

197.1

199.9

202.3

205.1

208.1

211.7

215.2

218.6

222.1

226.0

229.7

233.6

Transfer Payments

112.4

114.4

116.9

119.3

121.6

123.9

125.9

127.9

129.9

131.8

133.8

135.8

137.8

139.8

141.9

Social Insurance

52.1

52.8

53.6

54.5

55.2

55.9

56.6

57.7

58.4

59.3

60.0

61.2

62.0

62.9

63.8

Personal Income

597.7

605.0

610.2

617.6

625.1

632.4

640.4

648.1

655.7

663.3

671.2

679.3

687.7

695.8

703.8

Wages & Salaries

337.8

Farm

Billions 2000 Dollars 289.9

292.7

294.3

297.3

300.6

304.2

308.1

312.0

315.4

319.0

322.7

326.7

330.4

334.2

Other Labor Income

62.5

63.0

63.2

63.8

64.4

64.9

65.7

66.4

67.1

67.7

68.4

69.2

70.0

70.8

71.5

Nonfarm

34.2

34.2

34.1

34.5

35.0

35.4

35.9

36.5

37.1

37.5

38.0

38.6

39.2

39.7

40.2

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Farm

158.1

161.1

163.5

165.7

167.7

169.1

171.0

172.9

175.2

177.4

179.6

181.8

184.3

186.7

189.1

Transfer Payments

95.8

97.1

98.4

100.3

102.0

103.6

105.0

106.3

107.5

108.6

109.9

111.1

112.4

113.6

114.9

Social Insurance

44.4

44.8

45.1

45.8

46.3

46.7

47.2

47.9

48.4

48.8

49.3

50.1

50.6

51.1

51.7

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1260.5

1313.6

Property Income

1247.5

1245.3

1200.6

1206.4

1230.6

1236.8

1243.3

1250.7

1255.9

1261.9

1274.0

1286.2

1299.9

Retail Sales (Billions $)

275.1

278.3

281.7

280.6

281.9

285.3

288.2

291.8

296.0

300.2

304.6

309.0

313.5

318.4

322.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

234.5

236.2

237.3

235.9

236.4

238.5

240.3

242.4

245.0

247.5

250.3

252.9

255.7

258.7

261.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

16

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

F l o r i d a Summa r y Tab l e s Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

423.8

457.5

478.6

495.5

514.4

565.2

616.8

663.3

707.2

751.1

798.5

849.7

Wages & Salaries

210.1

228.4

239.2

247.1

258.7

279.4

302.7

324.6

342.3

361.4

384.1

408.2

Other Labor Income

42.5

45.1

47.6

51.8

56.2

61.5

67.0

70.8

73.7

77.3

81.6

86.5

Nonfarm

25.9

29.2

27.6

29.0

30.7

33.8

38.1

40.3

40.2

42.0

45.1

48.4

2.0

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

Farm Property Income

109.4

117.9

122.9

122.0

120.1

136.7

155.1

170.7

187.5

201.1

213.4

227.8

Transfer Payments

63.7

67.9

74.4

80.4

85.5

94.3

98.1

104.7

113.9

122.7

130.9

138.8

Social Insurance

31.1

33.3

35.5

37.1

39.1

42.5

46.4

49.8

52.5

55.5

58.8

62.5

Billions 2000 Dollars Personal Income

434.3

457.5

468.8

478.5

487.1

521.4

552.6

578.4

601.8

628.9

659.6

691.6

Wages & Salaries

215.3

228.4

234.3

238.6

245.0

257.7

271.3

283.1

291.3

302.6

317.3

332.3

Other Labor Income

43.5

45.1

46.6

50.1

53.2

56.7

60.1

61.7

62.8

64.7

67.4

70.4

Nonfarm

26.5

29.2

27.1

28.1

29.1

31.2

34.2

35.1

34.2

35.2

37.3

39.4

2.1

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Farm

112.1

117.9

120.4

117.8

113.8

126.0

139.0

148.9

159.6

168.4

176.2

185.5

Transfer Payments

Property Income

65.3

67.9

72.8

77.6

80.9

87.0

87.9

91.3

96.9

102.7

108.1

113.0

Social Insurance

31.9

33.3

34.8

35.9

37.0

39.2

41.5

43.4

44.6

46.5

48.6

50.9

1253.2

1314.2

1405.3

1302.3

1397.1

1442.9

1449.5

1416.8

1256.9

1218.6

1253.0

1293.4

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $)

174.6

184.5

190.4

196.6

205.7

225.8

247.7

265.3

276.4

284.0

298.2

316.0

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2000$)

179.0

184.5

186.5

189.9

194.8

208.3

221.9

231.3

235.2

237.8

246.3

257.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

December 2007

charts

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

Florida Charts

Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate 6.5%

(%)

6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate

Florida Gross State Product 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%

(% change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Gross State Product

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19

Florida Charts

Florida Housing Starts (thousands)

300.0

8.0%

250.0

7.5%

200.0

7.0% 6.5%

150.0

6.0%

100.0 50.0

8.5%

5.5% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Total Private Housing Starts 30 year Mortgage Rates

5.0%

Florida Personal Income (% change year ago)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2%

20

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Florida Charts

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30%

(% change year ago)

20% 10% 0% -10% -20%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Real Gross State Product 8%

(% change year ago)

7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21

Florida Charts

Florida Employment (Thousands)

9000.0 8500.0 8000.0 7500.0 7000.0 6500.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Wage & Salary Employment

Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0 700.0

22

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Florida Charts

Florida Federal Government Employment 135.0

(Thousands)

130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Financial Activities Employment 600.0

(Thousands)

550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23

Florida Charts

Florida Information Employment (Thousands)

200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0 160.0 150.0 140.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

480.0 460.0 440.0 420.0 400.0 380.0 360.0

24

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Florida Charts

Florida Construction Employment 650.0

(Thousands)

600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25

Florida Charts

Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands)

1050.0 1000.0 950.0 900.0 850.0 800.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0 1300.0

26

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

F l o r i d a New s Summa r ie s

Millions of dollars available in bio-energy grants Board of Governors votes to increase tuition 5 percent at Florida universities • The Florida Agricultural and Consumer Services Commission has announced that it will provide • The Board of Governors has agreed to increase $25 million in grants for the development of bio 11 Florida state university tuition rates by 5 energy. percent beginning in January 2008.

• This specific program funds the development of • The Florida legislature is currently opposing the bio-energy applications from locally grown crops Board of Governors with a lawsuit, claiming in the state and seeks to help propel Florida into they do not have the authority to raise tuition. the national spotlight as a pioneer in developing • If the tuition hike is approved, it could mean an renewable energy sources. extra $9.5 million for the university system.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Sept. 12, 2007 Source: South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Sept. 28, 2007 Bush vetoes billions for Everglades restoration • A $2-billion restoration meant for the Everglades was vetoed by President Bush, along with another $21 billion worth of water projects.

• Despite this veto, there are still other projects currently being funded by state and federal funds to improve natural areas around Florida. A few of these include major repairs to the Herbert Hoover Dike and a $400-million construction of a new reservoir meant to hold runoff water from the Everglades Agricultural Area.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Nov. 2, 2007 Florida is riskiest place for insurers • The monetary insurance risk in Florida has climbed to $2 trillion due to many factors, including coastal building. Insurers are at a severe risk to offer coverage in Florida.

• Some insurance companies, like Allstate, have attempted to get approval to increase homeowner rates, but with a $3.4 billion industry profit in Florida this year, state regulators found reason to deny their request.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, Nov. 30, 2007 Gov. Crist reinstates no-fault insurance • The Florida no-fault auto insurance is being revived January 1, 2008, thanks to Governor Crist.

• Some amendments were made to the old version of the law, including requiring $10,000 of personal injury protection (PIP) coverage for drivers.

Source: Naples Daily News, Oct.11, 2007

No hurricanes mean more visitors • While the economy is struggling in some areas due to the faltering housing market, the state has seen a resurgence in tourism, which has helped to stimulate an otherwise lagging economic performance.

• The surge in tourism comes from two years of virtual hurricane-free seasons, which have encouraged people to return to the state after the particularly active season a few years ago.

Source: Miami Herald, Nov. 27, 2007 State Florida parks beautify local economies • Florida’s state park system, which is one of the largest in the nation with 161 parks spanning more than 700,000 acres and 100 miles of beach, is beginning to pay dividends to local economies.

• State parks contributed almost $1 billion to local economies in the past year and experienced a record number of visitors at 19.5 million people.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Oct. 17, 2007 State to up minimum wage 12 cents • On January 1 of the new year, the state’s minimum wage will increase by 12 cents from $6.67 to $6.79 per hour.

• The increase in the minimum wage is in response to a release of data on the federal price index for the southern region, which has shown a 1.85 percent increase in the price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Oct. 16, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

Metros

December 2007

F l o r i d a F OR E C A ST

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway, which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach metro area is performing well in a few specific economic indicators. It is experiencing personal income growth that is just outpacing the state average and is expected to show a robust average annual growth rate of the average annual wage at a level of 3.9%. Additionally, the area is experiencing positive housing starts, unlike most areas of the state, at a healthy average annual growth rate of 4.1%.

The Deltona–Daytona Beach–Ormond Beach industry growth is similar to that of the rest of the state and illustrates the movement to, and emphasis on, professional business services, education, and health. The fastest growing industry is professional and business services, with the education and health services and federal government sectors just behind that at average annual growth rates of 3.5%, 3.1%, and 3.1%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 496,575 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 253,299 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,654 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Volusia County Schools – 6,816 employees • Halifax Medical Center – 3,136 employees • Volusia County – 2,600 employees • City of Daytona Beach – 1,159 employees • Memorial Hospital – 1,000 employees • Embry Riddle Aeronautical University – 900 employees • Memorial Hospital West Volusia – 853 employees • Sherwood Medical – 850 employees • The Daytona Beach News-Journal – 829 employees • Daytona Beach Community College – 743 employees Source: Southeast Volusia Chamber of Commerce

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Ocean Center expansion expected to attract meetings, conventions • Daytona Beach hopes that a new 464,000square-foot expansion of the Ocean Center will help increase its profile and attract new and larger conventions to the city.

• While the proposed expansion does not place the Ocean Center at the top of the state in terms of available space, it will be enough to allow the center to compete with cities like Tampa and Jacksonville.

• Attracting new and larger conventions has been a long-time goal of city officials and businessmen, as it could provide booms to the local economy, which is largely based on tourist traffic.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Sept. 11, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Ink dries on downtown master plan • The city of Ormond Beach has recently capped more than a year’s worth of work, adopting a master plan for the city’s downtown.

• The new plan takes into account everything from regulatory standards to land use policies and focuses on three main areas: the creek district, the river district, and the ocean district. The plan will also consider insight from the local community.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Oct.4, 2007 Ormond Beach begins setting goals for next year • Ormond Beach city officials have recently met to discuss goals for next year, including how to deal with even more budget cuts, which are probably due to statewide property tax cuts.

• While development of the community was also on the agenda, much focus was on ongoing union negotiations and staffing because these play a large part in an already constrained budget that will likely only get worse.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Nov. 22, 2007 Deltona lowers taxes, looks for more areas to cut • Deltona city commissioners recently passed a 16.7 percent tax reduction in property tax rates.

• While some officials believed that even more cuts are possible, many objected to the cuts to an already tight budget.

• Opposition to the tax cuts claims that the ensuing decreased revenues may place services to the community and other improvements in serious jeopardy.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Sept.27, 2007

30

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Chess Park seen as key move toward cultural downtown • Plans for a chess park in downtown Deland could start to become a reality as early as this year.

• The $1.2 million proposed park would be one of only four parks of its kind nationally, and it could be a cultural landmark in historic downtown Deland • The proposed park would connect what is termed the cultural corridor connecting the Athens Theatre, the Dutton House, the old County Courthouse, and a possible Florida Women’s Museum of the Arts.

Source: Daytona Beach News-Journal, Oct. 23, 2007

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, MSA Industry Location Quotients Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.3

0.6

(percent)

16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

12000.0 10000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

180.0

8000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

170.0 160.0

4.0%

150.0

2.0%

140.0 130.0

1.5

14000.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment 190.0

1.2

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

0.9

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Deltona Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

15.9 6.8 6 9.9 13.5 4.7 31.3 26.6 33.6 4.1

16.2 7.5 6.1 10.1 13.7 4.3 31.8 26.8 33.9 4.1

16.5 6.9 6.1 10.3 13.8 4.4 32.1 27 34.2 4.1

16.7 6.8 6.2 10.5 14 5.1 32.4 27.2 34.5 3.7

17 6.5 6.3 10.7 14.2 4.9 32.7 27.4 34.7 3.4

17.2 6.1 6.4 10.8 14.4 5 33 27.5 35 3.3

17.4 5.9 6.5 11 14.5 4.7 33.3 27.7 35.3 3.3

17.7 6.1 6.6 11.2 14.7 4.7 33.7 27.9 35.6 3.3

18 6.2 6.7 11.4 14.9 4.7 34.1 28.1 35.9 3.3

18.3 6.4 6.7 11.6 15 4.8 34.4 28.3 36.2 3.4

18.6 6.5 6.8 11.7 15.2 4.9 34.7 28.4 36.6 3.5

18.9 6.4 6.9 11.9 15.4 4.8 35.1 28.6 36.9 3.6

19.2 6.3 7 12.1 15.6 4.8 35.5 28.8 37.2 3.5

19.5 6.3 7.1 12.3 15.8 4.8 35.9 29 37.5 3.4

180.7 2 10.5 -1.1 170.2 2.2 14.6 -0.7 33.6 2.3 5.3 25.9 2.3 3.1 3.3 7.7 0.5 22.1 2.9 33.8 3.7 21.7 3.1 8.9 0.6 1.4 0.2 23.6 1.5

181.7 1.9 10.4 -2 171.3 2.2 14.6 -0.9 33.8 2.5 5.3 26.1 2.3 3.1 3 7.7 1.8 22.3 3.5 34 3.2 21.8 2.1 8.8 0.4 1.4 1.5 23.7 1.5

182.7 2.1 10.4 -1.9 172.3 2.4 14.7 0.3 34 2.5 5.3 26.3 2.3 3.1 2.4 7.7 2.6 22.6 4.4 34.3 3.4 22 2.1 8.8 0.1 1.4 -3.3 23.7 1.4

183.8 2.2 10.4 -1.2 173.4 2.4 14.7 1.2 34.3 2.8 5.4 26.5 2.3 3.1 2.3 7.8 2.5 22.9 4.8 34.5 3.2 22 1.5 8.8 -0.1 1.4 -0.4 23.8 1.3

184.6 2.1 10.4 -0.4 174.2 2.3 14.7 1.2 34.5 2.8 5.4 26.6 2.4 3.1 2.3 7.8 2.4 23.2 5.1 34.7 2.6 21.9 1.2 8.8 -0.2 1.4 2.6 23.9 1.3

185.4 2.1 10.4 0.3 175 2.2 14.8 1.3 34.6 2.5 5.5 26.7 2.4 3.1 2.5 7.9 2.7 23.4 5.1 34.8 2.3 22 0.6 8.8 0 1.5 6.4 24 1.2

186.4 2 10.5 0.8 175.9 2.1 14.9 1.6 34.7 2 5.5 26.7 2.4 3.2 2.9 8 2.7 23.6 4.6 35 2 22 0.1 8.8 0.1 1.7 26.8 24 1.2

187.3 1.9 10.5 1 176.8 2 15.1 2.6 34.8 1.6 5.6 26.8 2.4 3.2 2.6 8 2.7 24 4.7 35.1 1.7 22.1 0.3 8.9 0.2 1.5 8 24.1 1.3

188.3 2 10.5 1.2 177.8 2.1 15.3 3.4 34.9 1.3 5.6 26.8 2.4 3.2 2.3 8 2.6 24.3 5 35.2 1.6 22.1 0.8 8.9 0.3 1.6 8.1 24.2 1.5

189.2 2 10.6 1.4 178.6 2.1 15.4 3.9 35 1.2 5.6 26.8 2.5 3.2 2.1 8.1 2.5 24.6 5.1 35.3 1.5 22.2 1 8.9 0.4 1.5 2.5 24.3 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

177.2 0.8 10.6 0 166.6 0.9 14.7 0.1 32.8 0.1 5.1 25.5 2.2 3 1.1 7.6 -2.5 21.4 -0.3 32.6 4.3 21 -1.8 8.8 3.9 1.4 0 23.2 1.4

178.3 1 10.6 0.2 167.7 1.1 14.8 1.1 33 0.5 5.1 25.6 2.2 3 -0.8 7.6 -2.9 21.5 1.3 32.9 3.5 21.4 -0.2 8.8 2.1 1.4 0.5 23.3 0.5

178.9 1.3 10.6 -1.7 168.3 1.5 14.7 0.5 33.2 1.2 5.2 25.6 2.2 3 -0.6 7.5 -1.7 21.6 1.8 33.1 4 21.5 0.9 8.8 0.9 1.4 0 23.4 1.3

179.8 1.7 10.5 -0.7 169.2 1.9 14.5 -0.1 33.3 1.2 5.2 25.7 2.2 3 1.7 7.6 0.1 21.8 1.9 33.5 4.1 21.7 2.5 8.8 0.3 1.4 -0.2 23.5 1.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

13816.4 13917.1 13961.3 14051.2 14173.8 14301.2 14437.4 508.2 510.6 513.1 515.7 518.4 521.1 523.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2 2 2.1 254.2 254.5 256 257.5 258.9 260.3 261.7 2.2 0.9 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 2894 2270 2117 2242 2511 2785 3072 1697 1761 1644 1824 2004 2204 2456 1197 509 473 417 506 581 616

*Quarterly at an annual rate

32

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

14580 14710.4 14847.1 526.4 529.1 531.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 263 264.3 265.7 2.2 2.1 2 4.7 4.7 4.7 3304 3518 3728 2648 2845 3055 656 673 673

14997 15141.3 15288.1 15419.2 534.5 537.2 539.9 542.5 2.1 2.1 2 2 267 268.3 269.6 271 2 2 2 2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 3917 4087 4272 4469 3248 3413 3584 3791 669 674 689 677

De l t o n a – Da y t o n a B eac h – O r m o n d B eac h

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.6 4.7 3.6 6 9.9 3 21.9 22.5 24.9 4.9

10.4 7.7 3.9 6.5 10.4 5.1 23.3 23.3 26 4.7

10.9 5.5 4 6.9 10.7 3.3 24.2 23.7 26.7 2.5

11.4 3.7 4.3 7.1 11 2.3 24.7 23.8 27.7 4

11.8 4 4.6 7.2 11.2 2 25.2 23.9 28.8 3.8

13 9.8 5 8 12 7 27.1 25 29.9 3.8

13.8 6.6 5.3 8.5 12.4 3.6 28.3 25.3 30.7 2.9

14.8 6.9 5.7 9.1 12.9 4.1 29.7 25.9 32.2 4.7

15.8 6.8 5.9 9.9 13.4 4.3 31.1 26.5 33.4 3.8

16.8 6.6 6.3 10.6 14.1 4.8 32.6 27.3 34.6 3.6

17.9 6.1 6.6 11.3 14.8 4.7 33.9 28 35.8 3.3

19 6.4 7 12 15.5 4.8 35.3 28.7 37 3.5

158 3.1 9.4 -1.5 148.5 3.5 10.5 8.7 31.4 1.6 4.6 24.3 2.5 2.8 -6.3 6.5 1.2 17.4 6.3 30.1 6.7 20 2.2 7.8 2.9 1.4 2.5 20.7 0.5

164.8 4.3 9.8 3.9 155 4.4 11.9 14 31.9 1.8 4.7 25 2.2 2.8 -2.1 6.9 7.2 19.1 9.8 30.7 1.9 21.1 5.3 8.2 4 1.4 0 21.1 2.1

171.2 3.9 10.2 4.3 161 3.9 13.8 15.7 33.1 3.7 4.8 26 2.3 2.7 -2.7 7.3 5.5 20.6 7.7 30.5 -0.7 21.7 2.9 8.2 0.1 1.4 1.2 21.8 3.5

175.5 2.5 10.6 3.8 164.8 2.4 14.7 6.8 33 -0.4 4.9 25.8 2.2 2.9 7.7 7.8 5.8 21.1 2.5 31.2 2.4 21.5 -0.8 8.5 3.9 1.4 -0.6 22.9 4.7

177.2 1 10.6 0.4 166.5 1 14.6 -0.6 32.9 -0.2 5.1 25.6 2.2 3 2.7 7.6 -1.9 21.4 1.6 32.4 3.9 21.2 -1.2 8.8 3.6 1.4 -0.5 23.2 1.5

180.3 1.7 10.5 -1.4 169.8 1.9 14.6 -0.3 33.5 1.8 5.2 25.8 2.2 3 1.8 7.6 0.2 21.9 2.5 33.6 3.7 21.7 2.1 8.8 0.6 1.4 0.4 23.5 1.5

184.1 2.1 10.4 -0.8 173.7 2.3 14.8 1 34.4 2.6 5.4 26.5 2.3 3.1 2.4 7.8 2.5 23 4.9 34.6 2.9 22 1.4 8.8 -0.1 1.4 1.3 23.9 1.3

187.8 2 10.5 1.1 177.3 2.1 15.2 2.9 34.9 1.5 5.6 26.8 2.4 3.2 2.4 8 2.6 24.1 4.9 35.2 1.7 22.1 0.5 8.9 0.3 1.6 11 24.2 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

143.7 1.3 10.4 -6.8 133.3 2 7.9 0.8 30.3 2.1 4.3 23.5 2.6 3 36.6 6.8 0 13.3 3.8 25.3 3.4 18.8 -1.1 6.8 1.6 1.3 5.3 19.6 -1.1

147.5 2.7 10.9 5.1 136.6 2.5 8.3 5.4 31.3 3.4 4.4 24.2 2.7 3.1 4.1 6.8 -0.6 13.3 0 25.9 2.3 19.2 2.3 7.1 5.1 1.5 12.5 19.9 1.3

150.3 1.9 10.3 -5.6 140 2.5 8.8 5.8 31 -1 4.4 23.9 2.7 3.4 7.4 6.6 -3.4 15.8 18.1 26.2 1.2 19.4 0.9 7.1 -0.1 1.3 -10.1 20.4 2.5

153.1 1.9 9.6 -7.3 143.6 2.6 9.6 9.3 30.8 -0.6 4.7 23.6 2.6 3 -10.4 6.4 -2.3 16.4 3.8 28.2 7.7 19.6 0.8 7.6 6.8 1.4 2.5 20.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9544.7 439.3 1.4 181.5 0.2 3.2 3903 3416 487

9858.1 10235.8 10626.1 11256.6 11959.4 12805.8 13392.6 13749.1 14121.9 14643.7 15211.4 445.8 452.5 460.2 468.7 479.4 488.9 497.8 507.1 517.1 527.7 538.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.3 2 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2 209.7 214.6 220.9 227.6 234.4 240.6 248 252.9 258.2 263.7 269 15.5 2.3 2.9 3 3 2.6 3.1 2 2.1 2.1 2 3.4 4.3 5.5 5.1 4.6 3.7 3.2 3.9 4.6 4.7 4.7 3641 4506 4891 6324 6319 6453 4140 2530 2414 3406 4186 3195 3441 4220 5077 4868 5212 3139 1884 1919 2751 3509 446 1065 671 1248 1451 1241 1001 647 494 654 677

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

G ai n e s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist counties and is located in the northcentral portion of the state. This metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum.

The Gainesville metropolitan area is maintaining modest growth in many areas of the economy. Average annual wage rate is expected to see average annual growth rates of 3.5%, and personal income growth is expected to achieve an average annual growth rate of 5.6%. While the area is expected to see a decline in housing starts, this is symptomatic of the overall cooling in the housing market statewide.

The professional and business services sector is expected to be the fastest growing industry in the Gainesville area, growing at an average annual rate of 3.1%, with leisure following close behind at average annual rates of 2.7%.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 243,985 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Alachua County population estimate of 227,120 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,865 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 132,669 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.3%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 3,051 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • University of Florida – 35,000 employees • Shands Hospital – 8,225 employees • North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,560 employees • Nationwide Insurance – 1,058 employees Sources: University of Florida and Gainesville Council for Economic Outreach

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s BioMed company rakes in federal cash • Nanotherapeutics, Inc., a pharmaceutical company in the city of Alachua, was given a $20-million federal grant to develop an antidote to bioterrorism threats. The four-year grant comes from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is part of the National Institutes of Health, and should allow the company to conduct human clinical trials.

• The company has already engineered an inhaled version of an injected antibiotic used to treat pneumonic plague and tularemia, both of which have been deemed as important bioterror threats.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Oct. 18, 2007 Gainesville unemployment up • Gainesville’s unemployment rate in September reached 2.9 percent, up from last year’s 2.7 percent. Despite the increase, unemployment in the Gainesville area is still one of the lowest in Florida. The unemployment rate in Florida was 4.0 percent, more than last year’s 3.7 percent.

U.S. unemployment reached 4.7 percent, up from 4.6 percent last year.

G ai n e s v i l l e

• According to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, the retail industry accounted for much of the job losses, accounting for 300 of the 345 unemployed.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Oct. 19, 2007 Toyota dealership upgrades • The new Gatorland Toyota/Scion opened early this quarter on North Main St. The dealership upgraded from a 2.4-acre lot to the new 21-acre location. The inventory at the new location has doubled to more than 400 new cars, trucks, and SUVs. • The new location will be home to 12 new sales people and 33 service bays. The 88,000-squarefoot facility makes it the largest dealership in Gainesville.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Oct. 10, 2007 Corporate park hits critical mass • For more than 20 years, Alachua’s Progress Corporate Park has grown with its biotechnology companies adding office space as old businesses grow and new businesses move in. The park is currently home to more than 900 employees.

• Newest developments include a 33,000-squarefoot building that was filled before it opened and Santa Fe Community College building a 21,000square-foot biotech training center nearby.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Oct. 28, 2007

• The two companies have a combined 740 employees at facilities in Alachua and Germany.

The merger is expected to give the companies a size that will more readily attract attention to the area.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Nov. 14, 2007 Shoppers give local retail big boost • Eager shoppers poured into large retailers in Gainesville in record numbers over the Black Friday weekend. This big boost was tempered by what local retailers call the “Gator factor;” most retailers saw a drop-off in business during the hours surrounding the annual Florida-Florida State football game, while other retailers offering Gator products cashed in on fans who were seeking gifts and apparel.

• According to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., Friday and Saturday sales rose 7.2 percent over last year at 50,000 retail outlets. The local Best Buy reported about the same number of customers as last year; however, customers this year spent more per transaction, mainly on big ticket electronics.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, Nov. 27, 2007

Alachua biomedical firms to merge • Regeneration Technologies, Inc. and Tutogen Medical, Inc. announced a $263-million stockfor-stock deal in mid-November. Pending approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as both companies’ stockholders, the businesses will run independently.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35

G ai n e s v i l l e Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

9000.0 8000.0 7000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

135.0

6.0%

130.0

4.0%

125.0 120.0

2.0%

115.0

0.0%

36

2.5

10000.0

140.0

110.0

2.0

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment 145.0

1.5

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Gainesville Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

G ai n e s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 6.3 5 3.2 7 4.2 32.9 28 36.5 4.1

8.3 6.6 5 3.3 7 3.4 33.2 28 36.9 4.1

8.4 5.9 5.1 3.4 7.1 3.3 33.6 28.2 37.2 4.1

8.5 5.6 5.1 3.4 7.2 3.9 33.9 28.5 37.5 3.6

8.6 5.4 5.2 3.5 7.2 3.7 34.3 28.7 37.8 3.4

8.8 5.3 5.3 3.5 7.3 4.2 34.6 28.9 38.1 3.3

8.9 5.2 5.3 3.5 7.4 4 35 29 38.4 3.3

9 5.2 5.4 3.6 7.4 3.8 35.3 29.2 38.7 3.3

9.1 5.3 5.4 3.7 7.5 3.8 35.7 29.4 39.1 3.3

9.2 5.4 5.5 3.7 7.6 3.8 36.1 29.6 39.4 3.4

9.4 5.5 5.6 3.8 7.7 4 36.5 29.8 39.8 3.5

9.5 5.4 5.6 3.8 7.7 3.9 36.8 30 40.1 3.6

9.6 5.5 5.7 3.9 7.8 4 37.2 30.2 40.4 3.5

9.7 5.6 5.8 4 7.9 4 37.6 30.4 40.8 3.4

140 1.5 4.6 1.2 135.4 1.5 6.2 1.1 19.6 1.5 3 14.5 2.1 2 2 6.9 2.7 13.7 4.5 24 1.6 14.8 -0.2 4.7 -0.3 4 6.9 39.4 0.6

140.2 1.2 4.6 1.3 135.6 1.2 6.2 2.1 19.7 1.2 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.8 6.9 2.6 13.9 4.6 24.1 1.3 14.9 0 4.7 -0.2 3.6 -4.4 39.5 0.7

140.9 1.4 4.6 1.6 136.3 1.4 6.3 2.8 19.7 0.9 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.7 6.9 2.5 14.1 4.9 24.1 1.2 14.9 0.6 4.7 -0.1 3.8 0.2 39.6 0.8

141.4 1.4 4.6 1.7 136.7 1.4 6.4 3.3 19.7 0.7 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.5 7 2.4 14.3 5 24.2 1.1 14.9 0.9 4.7 0 3.8 -0.4 39.7 0.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

135.1 1.5 4.7 -0.7 130.4 1.6 6.2 -3.1 18.7 0.6 2.8 14 1.9 1.9 -0.1 6.6 0.5 12.6 0.6 22.6 2 14.6 6.3 4.8 2.2 3.8 0.9 38.7 1.6

135.2 1.2 4.6 -4.1 130.5 1.4 6.2 -4 18.8 0.6 2.8 14 1.9 1.9 1.8 6.5 -1.3 12.5 -0.7 22.8 2.2 14.4 4.7 4.7 -0.7 3.8 1.4 38.8 2.6

135.6 0.9 4.6 -1.4 130.9 0.9 6.1 -3.8 18.9 0.9 2.8 14.1 1.9 1.9 3.5 6.5 -1.7 12.6 -2.2 22.9 2.8 14.5 3.5 4.7 -1.6 3.8 1.5 38.9 1.4

136.2 1 4.6 -0.8 131.6 1.1 6.1 -2.8 19 0.1 2.9 14.1 2 2 2.1 6.6 -0.9 12.7 0.6 23.2 2.7 14.6 0.2 4.8 -0.6 3.8 1.3 39 2.3

136.7 1.2 4.6 -3 132.1 1.3 6.1 -1.6 19.1 1.9 2.9 14.1 2 2 2.6 6.6 0.7 12.8 2 23.4 3.1 14.6 0.4 4.8 0.1 3.8 0.7 39.1 0.8

137.3 1.6 4.5 -1.8 132.8 1.7 6.1 -1.5 19.2 2.1 2.9 14.2 2 2 2.3 6.6 1.9 12.9 3.5 23.5 2.8 14.7 2.1 4.7 0.1 3.8 0.8 39.2 0.9

137.9 1.7 4.5 -1.9 133.4 1.9 6.1 -0.2 19.3 2 2.9 14.4 2 2 2.1 6.7 2.6 13.1 4.4 23.6 3 14.8 2.4 4.7 -0.1 3.8 -0.2 39.2 0.7

138.5 1.7 4.5 -1.2 134 1.8 6.1 0.6 19.4 2.4 2.9 14.4 2 2 1.9 6.7 2.5 13.3 4.8 23.8 2.7 14.8 1.7 4.7 -0.4 3.8 0.2 39.3 0.7

138.9 1.6 4.6 -0.3 134.4 1.7 6.1 0.7 19.5 2.3 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.7 6.8 2.4 13.4 5 23.9 2.1 14.8 1.3 4.7 -0.6 3.8 0.6 39.3 0.6

139.4 1.5 4.6 0.6 134.8 1.6 6.2 0.8 19.6 2 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.7 6.8 2.6 13.6 5 23.9 1.9 14.8 0.4 4.7 -0.4 3.9 1.9 39.4 0.6

9382.6 249.1 1.7 134.1 1.7 3 1688 802 885

9399 250 1.6 134 0.4 3.2 1095 602 493

9419.4 250.9 1.5 134.6 0.7 3.2 974 511 463

9469.9 251.5 1.4 135.2 0.8 3.3 945 553 392

9538.1 252.2 1.3 135.7 1.2 3.3 1003 605 398

9610.4 252.9 1.2 136.2 1.7 3.3 1058 660 398

9688.5 253.6 1.1 136.7 1.6 3.4 1154 740 413

9767.1 254.3 1.1 137.2 1.5 3.4 1228 801 427

9837 255 1.1 137.7 1.5 3.4 1283 860 422

9910.5 255.8 1.1 138.2 1.4 3.4 1343 923 420

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

9985.9 10043.8 256.6 257.3 1.2 1.2 138.7 139.2 1.4 1.4 3.4 3.4 1377 1413 972 1011 405 401

10144 10219.5 258.1 258.9 1.2 1.2 139.7 140.2 1.4 1.4 3.4 3.3 1459 1500 1051 1099 408 401

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37

G ai n e s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.2 4.5 3.1 2.1 5.3 2.8 22.6 23.1 26.2 1.8

5.5 6.2 3.3 2.2 5.5 3.7 23.7 23.7 27 2.9

5.7 3.8 3.5 2.3 5.6 1.6 24.5 24 27.7 2.6

5.8 1.8 3.6 2.2 5.6 0.4 24.8 23.9 28.6 3.4

6 2.9 3.7 2.3 5.7 0.8 25.3 24 29 1.4

6.6 10.8 4 2.6 6.1 7.9 27.9 25.7 31.4 8.1

7.2 8.2 4.4 2.8 6.4 5.1 29.9 26.8 33.7 7.5

7.7 6.5 4.7 3 6.7 3.6 31.3 27.3 35.1 4.2

8.1 6.2 4.9 3.2 6.9 3.7 32.7 27.9 36.3 3.4

8.6 5.5 5.2 3.4 7.2 3.8 34.1 28.6 37.6 3.6

9 5.3 5.4 3.6 7.5 3.8 35.5 29.3 38.9 3.3

9.5 5.5 5.7 3.9 7.8 4 37 30.1 40.3 3.5

138.7 1.7 4.6 -0.7 134.1 1.7 6.1 0.5 19.5 2.2 2.9 14.5 2 2 1.8 6.7 2.6 13.4 4.8 23.8 2.4 14.8 1.5 4.7 -0.4 3.8 0.6 39.3 0.6

140.6 1.4 4.6 1.4 136 1.4 6.3 2.3 19.7 1.1 3 14.5 2.1 2 1.7 6.9 2.6 14 4.7 24.1 1.3 14.9 0.3 4.7 -0.1 3.8 0.6 39.6 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

119.1 2.1 5 -3.5 114.1 2.4 4.9 8.1 16.4 0.3 1.9 13.6 0.8 2.1 0.8 6.1 0.9 10.9 7.9 18.4 2.4 11.7 5.2 3.6 -1.4 2.9 -0.6 37.1 1.2

123.3 3.5 5.3 5.5 117.9 3.4 4.7 -2.9 17.1 4.6 2.1 14.1 0.9 2.3 11.6 6.4 4.2 11.3 3.7 19.3 4.5 11.8 0.8 3.8 6.1 3.1 6.6 38.1 2.7

124.8 1.3 4.6 -14.5 120.3 2 4.8 2.1 17.4 1.5 2.2 13.9 1.3 2.2 -6.5 6.6 4 11.1 -2 19.9 3.1 12.3 3.8 3.9 2.2 3.1 1.6 39 2.4

124.7 -0.1 4.5 -0.9 120.2 -0.1 5.1 5.6 17.1 -1.2 2.3 13.3 1.5 2 -6.5 6.6 -0.1 9.9 -10.4 20.4 2.4 12.1 -1.3 4.3 10.4 3.2 2.1 39.4 1

126.1 1.1 4.2 -5.9 121.8 1.3 5.2 1.5 17.3 1.1 2.5 13.1 1.7 2 -1.2 6.2 -6.4 10.4 4.3 20.8 2.3 12 -0.5 4.5 5.4 3.3 3.6 40 1.6

128.3 1.8 4.2 -2 124.2 1.9 5.8 11.7 17.4 0.4 2.6 13.2 1.6 2.1 6.1 6.2 -0.7 11.3 8.8 21.5 3 12.9 7.5 4.7 3.3 3.4 3.8 38.9 -2.8

129.8 1.2 4.1 -0.2 125.7 1.2 6.2 6.3 18 3.7 2.7 13.8 1.6 2 -5.8 6.2 0.9 11.9 5.6 21.9 2.1 13.7 5.9 4.5 -3.1 3.6 5.8 37.6 -3.3

132.6 2.1 4.7 12.9 127.9 1.8 6.4 3.4 18.5 2.7 2.7 14 1.8 1.9 -4.5 6.5 4.4 12.4 4 22.2 1.6 13.7 -0.2 4.7 3 3.7 1.8 37.9 0.9

134.9 1.7 4.7 -0.3 130.2 1.8 6.3 -1.8 18.8 1.4 2.8 14.1 1.9 1.9 -0.8 6.6 1.4 12.6 2.1 22.6 1.6 14.4 5.2 4.8 2.2 3.7 0.6 38.5 1.6

136.4 1.2 4.6 -1.8 131.8 1.3 6.1 -2.4 19 1.2 2.9 14.1 2 2 2.6 6.6 0 12.7 0.9 23.2 2.8 14.6 1.5 4.8 -0.5 3.8 1.1 39 1.4

7188.2 230.3 1.4 114.6 1.5 2.3 2662 1316 1346

7496.2 232.7 1.1 122.6 7 3 2195 1193 1002

7665.1 233.8 0.5 124.5 1.5 3.5 2377 1189 1188

7840.8 235.6 0.8 125 0.4 4 1959 1151 807

8191.7 236.8 0.5 126.5 1.2 3.7 1746 1281 465

8520 238.4 0.6 127.5 0.8 3.5 1883 1404 478

8826.5 240.8 1 127.8 0.2 3 2251 1478 773

9124.6 244.5 1.6 131.2 2.7 2.7 1892 1177 715

9330.7 248.6 1.7 134 2.1 2.8 1340 778 562

9509.5 251.9 1.3 135.4 1.1 3.3 995 582 413

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

38

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

9800.8 10098.3 254.7 257.7 1.1 1.2 137.5 139.4 1.5 1.4 3.4 3.4 1252 1437 831 1033 420 404

J ack s o n v i l l e

P r o fi l e s The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 1,277,997 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Baker County population estimate of 25,203 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Clay County population estimate of 178,899 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Duval County population estimate of 837,964 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Nassau County population estimate of 66,707 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • St. Johns County population estimate of 169,224 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 654,853 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted for the metro. This amounts to 20,622 unemployed people.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,245 employees • Naval Station Mayport – 15,293 employees • Duval County Public Schools – 14,284 employees • City of Jacksonville – 8,828 employees • Baptist Health – 7,000 employees • Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida – 7,000 employees

• • • •

Winn-Dixie Stores, Inc. – 6,200 employees Mayo Clinic – 5,000 employees CSX – 4,400 employees Citibank (Citi-cards) – 4,200 employees Source: Jacksonville Cornerstone

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Jacksonville metropolitan area is experiencing healthy gains in many key economic measures of the economy and is maintaining high levels of personal income and average annual wage. The area is expected to achieve average annual growth rates in personal income that outpace the statewide average, as well as one of the state’s leading growth rates in average annual wage at a level of 3.8% The Jacksonville metropolitan area’s industry growth is similar to that of the rest of the state and illustrates the movement to and emphasis on professional business services, education, and health. The fastest growing industry is professional and business services, with the education and health services sector just behind that at average annual growth rates of 4.8% and 3.1%, respectively.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s FPL invests to capture the sun • Florida Power & Light said it will invest $2.4 billion to increase U.S. solar thermal energy output and reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

FPL, based in Juno Beach, will invest $1.5 billion in new solar thermal generating facilities in Florida and California over the next seven years.

• In its infancy, the project will only produce 10 megawatts, but that will eventually expand to 300 megawatts of solar-generated energy. FPL is also going to launch a consumer education program and products, which are expected to generate about $400 million during their first five years, revenue that will be used to develop new capacity in renewable energy.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, Sept. 27, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ack s o n v i l l e

Port signs deal with South Korean shipper Jacksonville adding high-tech jobs • The Jacksonville Port Authority has reached an • According to AeA, a trade association for the agreement with Hanjin Shipping Co., a South high-tech industry, Jacksonville ranked second in Korean shipping line, to build a $360-million Florida for percentage growth of high-tech jobs facility in the area. This represents the second in 2005. High-tech employment in the city grew major Asian shipping line to choose Jacksonville 12 percent from 2004 to 2005, one of the fastest for a new terminal. The first was Mitsui O.S.K. rates in Florida.

Lines Ltd., a Japanese shipper that signed a 30• In 2005, Jacksonville added 2,000 high-tech year contract with the city in 2005. jobs to reach 18,200. The average salary for these • The agreement will allow Hanjin to start high-tech workers reached $62,900, 65 percent negotiations on construction, financing, and higher than the average worker. operations on the terminal. Hanjin will have a Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, Sept. 25, 2007 170-acre terminal to begin operations in 2011.

• According to port officials, the Hanjin deal could Lynn’s GE plant wins $9M Navy deal have an annual economic impact of as much as • A Lynn defense contractor has landed a $9.2 $1 billion and will directly and indirectly create million extension to a previously awarded deal thousands of jobs in Northeast Florida. from the U.S. Navy. The contract is to General Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, June 1, 2007 Electric Aviation, extending a November 2004 agreement for replacement and support for the F-414 fighter plane engine components.

• The work will be done in Lynn and Jacksonville and will be completed in January 2008.

• GE Aviation won a $340 million contract in September to provide the Navy with jet engines.

In October, the company also won a $65-million contract to build engines for the governments of Kuwait and Switzerland.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, Nov. 13, 2007 Rayonier to offer $250 million in notes • A subsidiary of Rayonier Inc., Rayonier TRS Holdings Inc., will offer $250 million worth of senior exchangeable notes that will be due in 2012 to institutional buyers. The notes will be exchangeable for Rayonier common stock under certain conditions. The proceeds will be used to repay a $112.5-million note due at the end of 2007.

• Rayonier, based in Jacksonville, is a forest products company that specializes in timber, real estate, and performance fibers. The company controls 2.5-million acres of timberland in the U.S., New Zealand, and Australia.

Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, Oct. 10, 2007 40

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

J ack s o n v i l l e Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment (Millions 2000 $) Rate 60000.0 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

55000.0 50000.0 45000.0 40000.0 35000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

30000.0

Jacksonville Payroll Employment 700.0

(Thousands)

Jacksonville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

650.0

6.0%

600.0

4.0%

550.0

2.0%

500.0 450.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Jacksonville Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41

J ack s o n v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.9 6.8 28.9 21 42.4 4.6 37.9 32.2 43.6 4

50.7 6.8 29.3 21.4 42.7 3.6 38.2 32.2 44.1 4.1

51.4 6.3 29.6 21.8 43.2 3.8 38.5 32.4 44.5 4.3

52.1 6.1 30 22.1 43.7 4.4 38.8 32.6 44.9 4

52.9 5.9 30.4 22.5 44.2 4.3 39.2 32.8 45.3 3.8

53.7 5.9 30.8 22.8 44.7 4.8 39.6 33 45.7 3.6

54.5 6.1 31.3 23.2 45.3 4.9 40 33.2 46.1 3.6

55.4 6.3 31.8 23.6 45.8 4.9 40.4 33.5 46.4 3.5

56.3 6.4 32.3 24 46.4 4.9 40.9 33.7 46.9 3.6

57.2 6.5 32.8 24.4 47 5 41.3 34 47.3 3.6

58.1 6.6 33.3 24.8 47.5 5 41.8 34.2 47.8 3.8

59 6.5 33.8 25.2 48.1 4.9 42.2 34.5 48.2 3.8

59.9 6.5 34.3 25.6 48.7 5 42.7 34.7 48.6 3.7

60.8 6.4 34.8 26 49.3 4.9 43.2 35 49.1 3.7

646.9 1.3 30.9 -2.6 616 1.5 48.4 -2 141 1.7 30.3 77.2 33.4 11.2 0.6 61.5 0.7 100.8 2.5 81 3 67 2 28.9 0.8 17.3 0.9 59 1.5

650.7 1.7 30.7 -2.4 620 1.9 48.7 -1 141.7 1.9 30.4 77.7 33.5 11.1 0.8 61.7 1.3 102.4 4 81.5 2.9 67.5 2.1 28.9 0.6 17.3 0.9 59.1 1.3

655.1 2.2 30.6 -2.3 624.4 2.5 49 0.6 142.6 2 30.6 78.3 33.8 11.1 0.3 62.1 2 104.3 6.1 81.9 3 67.9 2.2 28.9 0.1 17.3 0.8 59.3 1.3

659.6 2.5 30.6 -1.7 629 2.7 49.1 1.5 143.6 2.4 30.8 78.8 34.1 11.2 0.3 62.5 2.2 106.5 7.2 82.6 2.8 68 1.6 28.9 -0.1 17.3 0.6 59.5 1.3

663.8 2.6 30.6 -0.9 633.1 2.8 49.3 1.7 144.4 2.4 31.1 79.1 34.4 11.2 0.3 62.9 2.4 108.6 7.7 83 2.5 67.9 1.3 28.9 -0.1 17.3 0.4 59.7 1.2

667.8 2.6 30.7 -0.2 637.1 2.8 49.6 1.7 145.1 2.4 31.3 79.4 34.7 11.2 0.6 63.4 2.7 110.3 7.7 83.3 2.3 68 0.7 28.9 0.1 17.5 1.1 59.8 1.2

671.8 2.6 30.7 0.2 641.1 2.7 50 2 145.5 2.1 31.5 79.5 34.9 11.2 1 63.8 2.7 111.9 7.3 83.6 2 68.1 0.3 28.9 0.2 18 4 60 1.2

675.4 2.4 30.7 0.4 644.6 2.5 50.6 3 146.1 1.7 31.7 79.6 35.2 11.2 0.8 64.1 2.7 114.3 7.3 83.9 1.7 68.3 0.5 29 0.3 16.9 -2.3 60.2 1.2

680.4 2.5 30.8 0.7 649.6 2.6 51.1 3.8 146.6 1.5 31.9 79.7 35.5 11.3 0.7 64.5 2.6 116.5 7.2 84.3 1.6 68.6 1 29 0.4 17.3 -0.2 60.4 1.3

684.4 2.5 30.9 0.8 653.5 2.6 51.7 4.3 147.1 1.4 32.1 79.7 35.8 11.3 0.6 65 2.5 118 6.9 84.6 1.5 68.9 1.4 29.1 0.6 17.3 -0.7 60.6 1.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

638.5 2.1 31.7 -4.5 606.8 2.5 49.4 -1.4 138.7 1.4 29.5 76.4 32.8 11.1 -1.8 61.1 1.2 98.4 3 78.6 5.2 65.7 5 28.7 5.5 17.1 0.8 58.1 2.2

639.7 1.3 31.5 -3.6 608.2 1.5 49.2 -3.2 139.1 1.1 29.7 76.3 32.9 11 -2.4 60.9 1.1 98.4 0.8 79.1 4.4 66.1 4.4 28.7 4.2 17.1 0 58.4 1.5

640.8 1.1 31.3 -3.7 609.5 1.3 48.8 -2.7 139.8 1.6 29.8 76.6 33.1 11.1 -2.6 60.9 0.6 98.3 0.3 79.6 3.5 66.4 3.3 28.8 3.2 17.2 -0.1 58.6 1.6

643.5 1.1 31.1 -2.8 612.4 1.3 48.4 -2.4 140.3 1.8 30 76.8 33.2 11.1 -0.6 61.1 0.5 99.4 1.3 80.3 3 66.9 2.9 28.9 1.7 17.2 0.6 58.8 1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50732.4 50924.7 51022.7 51305.3 51720.7 52186.2 52712.4 53229.7 53724.9 54225.2 54718.8 1318.2 1325.9 1333.7 1341.3 1348.7 1355.8 1362.8 1369.6 1376.1 1382.7 1389.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 2 1.9 669.3 672.3 675.3 678.4 681.5 684.6 687.7 690.6 693.5 696.2 699.1 2.8 1.6 2 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 4 4 4 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 11047 8780 7674 7860 8493 9197 9921 10539 11094 11560 11907 8238 6687 5762 6026 6342 6773 7367 7817 8294 8776 9146 2809 2093 1912 1834 2151 2424 2554 2723 2800 2784 2761

*Quarterly at an annual rate

42

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

55222 55817.4 56323.8 1395.9 1402.3 1408.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 702 704.8 707.5 1.7 1.6 1.6 3.9 3.9 3.9 12276 12734 13208 9507 9904 10304 2769 2830 2904

J ack s o n v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

30.3 4.7 17.8 12.5 31.1 3 27.3 27.9 31.3 1.4

33.1 9.4 19.3 13.8 33.1 6.7 29.3 29.4 32.8 4.7

33.8 2 19.8 14 33.1 -0.1 29.4 28.8 33.4 1.8

35.1 3.9 20.4 14.7 33.9 2.4 29.9 28.9 34.8 4.3

37.2 5.9 21.9 15.3 35.2 3.8 31 29.4 37 6.4

40.3 8.5 23.4 17 37.2 5.7 32.9 30.4 38.4 3.9

42.8 6.1 24.9 17.9 38.3 3 34.2 30.6 39.6 3

46.3 8.2 27.1 19.2 40.4 5.3 36.1 31.5 41.8 5.6

49.5 6.9 28.7 20.8 42.1 4.3 37.7 32.1 43.4 3.8

52.5 6.1 30.2 22.3 44 4.3 39 32.7 45.1 3.9

55.8 6.4 32.1 23.8 46.1 4.9 40.7 33.6 46.7 3.6

59.5 6.5 34.1 25.4 48.4 5 42.5 34.6 48.4 3.7

564.6 0.5 33.4 -3.1 531.2 0.8 36.7 7.4 125 0.4 26.8 68.8 29.4 12.4 -6.1 57.6 -0.1 84.1 -2.3 64.7 1.9 53.3 1.6 25.7 3 18 1.5 53.6 1.7

582 3.1 33.3 -0.3 548.7 3.3 40.9 11.6 128.1 2.5 26.9 71.1 30.1 11.6 -6.4 58.4 1.4 85.9 2.2 68 5 56.3 5.5 26.4 2.6 17.8 -1.3 55.4 3.3

605.1 4 33.5 0.8 571.5 4.2 45.4 11 132.7 3.6 27.8 73.9 31.1 11.9 2.4 59.3 1.4 89.4 4 71.3 4.9 60.4 7.3 26.8 1.5 17.4 -2.3 57.1 3

624.4 3.2 33.2 -1.1 591.2 3.4 49.9 10 136.2 2.6 29.2 74.8 32.2 11.4 -4.3 60.3 1.7 95.5 6.8 74.4 4.4 62.3 3.2 27.2 1.7 17 -2.2 56.9 -0.2

637.1 2 31.9 -3.8 605.2 2.4 49.6 -0.7 138.3 1.5 29.4 75.9 32.9 11.2 -2 60.8 0.9 98.2 2.9 78.1 5 65.3 4.7 28.5 4.5 17.1 0.7 58.1 2

645.5 1.3 31 -2.9 614.5 1.5 48.6 -2 140.7 1.7 30.1 77.1 33.3 11.1 -0.5 61.3 0.8 100.2 2 80.6 3.1 66.9 2.6 28.9 1.6 17.2 0.6 58.9 1.4

661.6 2.5 30.6 -1.3 630.9 2.7 49.2 1.4 143.9 2.3 31 78.9 34.2 11.2 0.4 62.7 2.3 107.4 7.2 82.7 2.6 67.9 1.5 28.9 0 17.4 0.7 59.6 1.2

678 2.5 30.8 0.5 647.2 2.6 50.9 3.3 146.3 1.7 31.8 79.6 35.4 11.3 0.8 64.4 2.6 115.1 7.2 84.1 1.7 68.4 0.8 29 0.4 17.4 0.2 60.3 1.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

543.7 2.4 38.5 -0.5 505.2 2.7 31.3 1.6 124.3 1.9 24.5 67.7 32 14.4 7.3 55.4 3.7 80.9 5.9 58.9 2.2 49 3.3 22.7 1.5 18 -3.5 50.3 0.6

565.6 4 39.5 2.4 526.1 4.1 32.6 4.2 129.7 4.4 26.3 70.5 32.9 15.3 6.3 56.5 2 89.1 10.2 59.6 1.2 50.2 2.3 23.8 4.7 17.8 -1.1 51.5 2.4

567 0.3 36.2 -8.3 530.8 0.9 32.9 1 125.6 -3.2 26.2 67.6 31.7 14.4 -5.6 57.9 2.4 93.8 5.3 61.1 2.4 51.1 1.8 23.9 0.4 17.7 -0.7 52.5 1.9

561.5 -1 34.4 -4.9 527.1 -0.7 34.1 3.6 124.4 -0.9 25.9 68.1 30.4 13.2 -8.1 57.7 -0.3 86.1 -8.2 63.5 4 52.5 2.8 24.9 4.6 17.7 0.2 52.8 0.5

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

37491.7 39060.2 39806.1 40520.3 42386.2 44306.4 46870.4 48921.9 1112.2 1129.4 1151.4 1175.5 1198.5 1225.2 1251.8 1282.1 1.4 1.5 2 2.1 2 2.2 2.2 2.4 577.1 589.4 595.6 597.5 601.7 612.1 627 649 2.2 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.4 3.5 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.3 5 4.6 3.8 3.3 11325 10919 12766 14505 15375 18227 24230 16835 8549 8249 10070 11273 13042 14127 18976 12487 2776 2669 2696 3231 2333 4100 5254 4348

50432 51558.7 53473.1 55520.5 1314.2 1344.9 1372.8 1399.1 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 666.6 679.9 692 703.4 2.7 2 1.8 1.6 3.6 4 3.9 3.9 11184 8306 10779 12531 8243 6226 8063 9715 2941 2080 2715 2816

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43

Lake l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County.

It is located in the western center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions, including Cypress Gardens and Fantasy of Flight. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively.

The Lakeland metropolitan area is experiencing moderate growth in key economic indicators with personal income growth and average annual wage rate growth at or around the statewide average. Most striking about the Lakeland area is that it is one of the leaders in the state in population growth, expecting to achieve an average annual growth rate at a level of 3.0% with average rates of employment growth at a modest 1.8%.

The education and health services sector is expected to be the fastest growing industry in the Lakeland area, growing at an average annual rate of 3.9%, with the federal government and professional and business services sector following at growth rates of 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 561,606 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 272,007 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,704 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 5,634 employees • Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 3,800 employees • GEICO – 2,130 employees • Watson Clinic – 1,200 employees • GC Services – 1,200 employees • Watkins Motor Lines – 848 employees • Rooms To Go – 800 employees • Summit Consulting – 693 employees • ICT Group – 500 employees • McDonald Construction Corp. – 500 employees • Key Safety Systems, Inc. – 500 employees Source: Lakeland Area Chamber of Commerce

44

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Citrus acreage in Polk falls 6.2 percent since last year • Since 2006, Polk County has lost 6.2 percent of its total acreage and 5.7 percent of its total tree count.

• Losses were caused by urbanization, abandonment of groves, and disease.

• Despite these losses, Polk County is the number one citrus producer in the state with about 81,000 acres.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Sept. 15, 2007 I-4, high-tech potential makes Polk irresistible for banks • Thanks to the 35-mile stretch of I-4 that runs through Polk County, the economy has developed around tourism and warehousing/ distribution.

• Both local banks and large banks are now looking to establish themselves in Polk due to its location and potential for attracting high-tech companies.

Lake l a n d

• USF Polytechnic, offering training in information and manufacturing technologies, will also contribute to the area’s growth.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Sept. 17, 2007 Polk’s August housing numbers down 32 percent over 2006 • For the 15th month in a row, existing-home sales in Polk dropped 32 percent over 2006, down to 340.

• Median prices of homes fell 5 percent to $170,900.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Sept. 26, 2007 Cypress Gardens solidifies plans • Cypress Gardens Adventure Park was recently purchased at an auction by Land South Holdings LLC for $16.8 million.

• The park was sold due to its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing in 2006.

• The new owners have plans to continue operating Cypress Gardens with some new additions and different strategies for attracting tourists.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Oct. 29, 2007 Polk tourism up 44 percent, reaches record $124 million • During this fiscal year, Polk County tourism set a record at $124 million, representing a 44 percent increase over 2006 figures. This record is in spite of higher gas prices and the bankruptcy of Cypress Gardens.

• Major tourist attractions in Polk County include the Historic Bok Sanctuary, Fantasy of Flight, the Florida Air Museum at Sun ‘n Fun, and Cypress Gardens.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Nov. 12, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45

Lake l a n d Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 8.0%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 20000.0

5.0%

14000.0

4.0%

12000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0%

200.0

2.0%

180.0

46

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

220.0

160.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0

6.0%

240.0

2.0

18000.0

7.0%

3.0%

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Lakeland Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Lake l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18 6.8 8.2 9.9 15.3 4.6 30.7 26.1 36.4 4.6

18.3 7.2 8.2 10.1 15.4 4 30.9 26.1 36.7 4

18.6 6.4 8.3 10.2 15.6 3.9 31.1 26.2 37 4

18.8 6.1 8.4 10.4 15.8 4.4 31.3 26.3 37.2 3.5

19.1 6 8.5 10.6 16 4.4 31.5 26.4 37.5 3.2

19.4 5.8 8.7 10.7 16.2 4.7 31.7 26.5 37.8 3.1

19.6 5.7 8.8 10.9 16.3 4.5 32 26.6 38.1 3.1

20 5.9 8.9 11.1 16.5 4.5 32.2 26.7 38.4 3.1

20.3 6 9 11.3 16.7 4.5 32.5 26.8 38.7 3.1

20.6 6.2 9.1 11.5 16.9 4.6 32.8 27 39 3.2

20.9 6.2 9.3 11.6 17.1 4.7 33.1 27.1 39.4 3.3

21.2 6.1 9.4 11.8 17.3 4.6 33.4 27.3 39.7 3.4

21.5 6.1 9.5 12 17.5 4.6 33.8 27.5 40 3.3

21.8 6.1 9.6 12.2 17.7 4.6 34.2 27.7 40.3 3.2

226.7 1.5 17.5 -0.7 209.2 1.7 15.6 -2.4 49.5 1.5 11 25.8 12.5 2.5 2.6 12 0.7 41.9 2.7 29.7 3.9 18 1.7 10.1 0.4 1.4 1 28.4 1.4

227.9 1.8 17.4 -2.3 210.5 2.1 15.6 -2.3 49.8 2.7 11.1 26 12.6 2.5 2.3 12.1 2 42.3 3.3 29.9 3.1 18.2 2.4 10.1 0.1 1.4 1.4 28.5 1.4

229.2 2 17.4 -2 211.8 2.4 15.6 -1 50.2 2.7 11.1 26.3 12.7 2.5 2 12.2 2.7 42.8 4.1 30.1 3.3 18.3 2.3 10.1 -0.4 1.4 -2.7 28.6 1.3

230.6 2.2 17.4 -1.3 213.2 2.5 15.6 -0.1 50.6 3 11.2 26.5 12.9 2.5 1.8 12.2 2.6 43.4 4.5 30.4 3.1 18.3 1.7 10.1 -0.6 1.4 -0.3 28.7 1.2

231.7 2.2 17.4 -0.4 214.3 2.4 15.6 0 51 3 11.4 26.6 13.1 2.5 1.7 12.3 2.5 43.9 4.7 30.5 2.5 18.3 1.4 10 -0.7 1.4 2.2 28.8 1.1

232.8 2.2 17.5 0.2 215.4 2.3 15.6 0.1 51.2 2.8 11.4 26.6 13.2 2.5 1.8 12.4 2.7 44.3 4.7 30.6 2.2 18.3 0.7 10 -0.5 1.5 5.5 28.9 1.1

234 2.1 17.5 0.7 216.5 2.2 15.7 0.4 51.4 2.5 11.5 26.6 13.3 2.5 2.1 12.5 2.7 44.6 4.2 30.7 1.9 18.3 0.2 10 -0.3 1.7 22.9 28.9 1.1

235.2 2 17.5 0.8 217.7 2.1 15.8 1.4 51.7 2.1 11.6 26.7 13.5 2.5 2 12.6 2.7 45.3 4.3 30.9 1.7 18.4 0.4 10 -0.2 1.5 5.6 29.1 1.2

236.6 2.1 17.6 0.9 219 2.2 15.9 2.1 51.9 1.8 11.7 26.7 13.6 2.5 1.8 12.6 2.6 45.9 4.7 30.9 1.5 18.4 0.8 10 -0.1 1.5 6.5 29.2 1.3

237.7 2.1 17.6 1 220.1 2.2 16 2.5 52.1 1.7 11.7 26.7 13.8 2.5 1.7 12.7 2.4 46.4 4.7 31 1.4 18.5 1.1 10 -0.1 1.5 1.8 29.3 1.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

223.4 1 17.6 -0.7 205.8 1.2 16 -4.8 48.7 -1.1 10.7 26 12 2.4 -3.1 11.9 4 40.8 -0.9 28.6 7.3 17.7 3 10.1 1.6 1.4 -0.6 28.1 4

223.9 1.2 17.8 1.4 206.1 1.2 16 -3.7 48.5 -0.7 10.8 25.6 12.1 2.4 -2.5 11.8 3.7 41 -1.5 29 7.6 17.8 3 10.1 1.5 1.4 -0.5 28.1 3.5

224.6 0.9 17.7 1.1 206.9 0.9 15.8 -4.5 48.9 -1.3 10.9 25.6 12.2 2.4 -0.3 11.9 2.4 41.1 0.3 29.2 6.7 17.9 2.5 10.1 1.2 1.4 -1.3 28.3 1.8

225.6 1 17.6 1.4 208 0.9 15.6 -2.4 49.1 -1 10.9 25.7 12.3 2.4 1.2 11.9 2.6 41.5 0.9 29.5 5.1 18 2.3 10.1 0 1.4 0.9 28.4 1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17862.6 17966.6 18027.8 18143.2 587.3 592.1 596.9 601.5 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 277.4 276.6 278.1 279.6 2.2 1.5 1.7 1.9 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.7 4372 3728 3178 3373 3934 3412 2861 3058 438 316 318 315

18294 18458.4 18634.3 18811.5 18970.2 19135.5 19311.8 19486.5 606.1 610.5 614.8 618.9 623 626.8 630.2 633.5 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 281 282.4 283.7 285 286.3 287.6 288.9 290.2 1.3 2.1 2 2 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 3809 4242 4712 5059 5357 5610 5804 5940 3381 3742 4183 4499 4775 5055 5255 5413 427 500 528 561 582 555 549 527

19660 19817.1 636.4 639 2.2 2 291.5 292.8 1.8 1.8 4.9 4.8 6130 6310 5594 5800 536 510

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47

Lake l a n d

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.1 5.6 5.1 5.9 11.3 3.9 23.1 23.7 28.5 2.7

11.5 4.1 5.5 6 11.5 1.6 23.7 23.7 29.5 3.3

12.2 6 5.7 6.5 12 3.9 24.8 24.3 30 2

12.5 2.1 5.8 6.7 12 0.6 24.9 24 30.5 1.7

13.1 4.7 6 7 12.4 2.7 25.5 24.1 31.7 3.8

14.4 10.2 6.5 7.9 13.3 7.3 27.3 25.2 32.3 1.8

15.7 8.9 7.2 8.5 14 5.8 28.8 25.8 33.5 3.7

16.8 7 7.7 9.1 14.6 4.1 29.7 25.9 34.8 4

17.9 6.8 8.1 9.8 15.2 4.3 30.6 26 36.1 3.8

19 6.1 8.5 10.5 15.9 4.4 31.4 26.3 37.4 3.5

20.1 6 8.9 11.2 16.6 4.5 32.4 26.8 38.6 3.1

21.4 6.2 9.4 11.9 17.4 4.6 33.6 27.4 39.8 3.3

189.6 1 18.1 -1.8 171.5 1.3 12.9 -5.1 42.1 -4.2 9.1 22.5 10.5 2.2 -7.9 11 2 31.2 18.2 22.9 1.7 15 -5.4 7.5 0.9 1.4 -3 25.3 1.7

200.4 5.7 18.2 0.6 182.2 6.3 14.4 11.4 43.9 4.3 9.4 23.5 11 2.2 -1.1 10.9 -1 36.5 16.9 24.1 5.3 15.3 2.2 8 7.6 1.3 -2.5 25.5 1

212.9 6.2 18.3 0.3 194.6 6.8 16.2 12.6 47.6 8.4 10.3 25.3 12.1 2.3 3 11.1 1.7 39 6.9 25.6 6.1 16.5 7.7 9 11.9 1.4 4.4 26 2

219.9 3.3 17.9 -1.9 202 3.8 16.7 3 49 3 10.6 26.2 12.3 2.4 7.3 11.4 2.9 40.5 4 26.6 4 17.1 3.6 9.9 9.8 1.4 -0.6 26.9 3.4

223.3 1.6 17.6 -1.9 205.7 1.9 16.1 -3.3 49.1 0.1 10.7 26.2 12.2 2.4 -1.6 11.7 2.8 41 1.1 28.3 6.3 17.6 3.2 10.1 1.9 1.4 1.7 28 4.1

226.2 1.3 17.6 -0.1 208.6 1.4 15.7 -2.9 49.3 0.5 11 25.8 12.4 2.4 1.4 12 1.9 41.7 1.8 29.6 4.7 18 2.2 10.1 0.4 1.4 0.5 28.4 1.4

231.1 2.2 17.4 -0.9 213.7 2.4 15.6 -0.2 50.8 2.9 11.3 26.5 13 2.5 1.8 12.3 2.6 43.6 4.5 30.4 2.8 18.3 1.5 10 -0.5 1.4 1.2 28.7 1.2

235.9 2.1 17.6 0.8 218.3 2.2 15.9 1.6 51.8 2 11.6 26.7 13.5 2.5 1.9 12.6 2.6 45.6 4.5 30.9 1.6 18.4 0.6 10 -0.2 1.5 9 29.1 1.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

179.5 1.9 21.3 -0.7 158.2 2.2 13.6 -4.2 43.6 3.4 7.9 26.1 9.5 2.1 5.5 8.8 2.5 21.1 6.7 21.3 2.5 14.4 4.7 7.1 -3.2 1.4 1.7 24.8 -0.1

185.8 3.5 20.2 -5 165.6 4.7 13.8 1.5 45.1 3.4 8.1 27.3 9.7 2.3 11.9 9.6 8.5 23.4 11.1 22.3 5 14.9 3.2 7.2 1.3 1.6 15 25.3 2.1

188.1 1.2 18.9 -6.7 169.3 2.2 14 1.4 45.3 0.6 8.5 26.4 10.4 2.6 9.2 10.3 6.9 26 11.2 22.8 2.1 15.1 1.6 7 -2.6 1.4 -17.6 24.8 -1.9

187.7 -0.3 18.4 -2.2 169.2 0 13.6 -2.8 44 -2.9 8.5 25 10.4 2.4 -4.9 10.8 5.3 26.4 1.4 22.5 -1.3 15.8 4.8 7.4 5.1 1.4 3 24.9 0.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

48

12254.9 12718.7 13122.6 13395.9 14099.4 15125.3 16461.5 17266.7 479.1 486.3 493 501.3 512 526.1 544.4 564.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.6 209.9 231.2 236.2 238.1 240.6 249.3 259.8 269.1 1.2 10.2 2.1 0.8 1.1 3.6 4.2 3.6 5.1 4.1 5 5.8 5.5 4.9 4 3.5 3985 4900 4616 5022 6903 9250 13043 9650 3122 3640 4014 4571 6271 8462 11909 8437 863 1260 602 451 632 789 1134 1213

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

17781 18230.8 18887.9 19568.8 584.7 603.8 620.9 634.8 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.2 275.5 280.3 285.7 290.9 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.8 4 4.7 4.8 4.9 4647 3650 5185 6046 4250 3260 4628 5515 397 390 556 531

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

P r o fi l e s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins, and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University.

Quick Facts: • Metro area population estimate of 5,463,857 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,402,208 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Broward County population estimate of 1,787,636 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,274,013 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 2,838,810 in December 2006 for the metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.1%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 88,079 unemployed people for the metro area.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Miami-Dade County Public School – 54,387 employees • Miami-Dade County – 32,265 employees • Federal Government – 20,100 employees • Florida State Government – 18,900 employees • Jackson Health System – 11,700 employees • Baptist Health South Florida – 10,300 employees

• • • •

University of Miami – 9,367 employees American Airlines – 9,000 employees United Parcel Service – 5,000 employees BellSouth – 4,800 employees Source: Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Miami Beach metropolitan area continues to remain one of the state’s most dominating regions in terms of many economic indicators due to its size and level of economic activity.

The area leads the state in average annual wage and is near the top of the state in per capita income level. It is also experiencing moderate to high growth in per capita personal income growth and average annual wage rate growth, while continuing to lead the state in gross metropolitan product.

This area’s industry growth is predominantly focused on the professional and business services sector, which is expected to achieve growth rates of 4.7%. The next highest growth rate is expected to be achieved by the financial services sector at a projected average annual growth rate of 1.9%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s FIU medical school partners with Jackson Health, Mount Sinai • The Florida International University Medical School has recently announced important affiliation agreements in its drive toward opening in the near future.

• The affiliation agreements with Jackson Health and Mount Sinai establish two hospitals that will train future students of the medical school.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Nov. 6, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Fort Lauderdale OKs 42-story condo next to Stranahan House • A controversy has erupted in Fort Lauderdale over the approval of construction of a 42-story condominium on historic land next to one of Fort Lauderdale’s famed historic properties, the Stranahan House.

• Even with the condominium’s approval due to a narrow vote from city commissioners, the historic property’s many supporters have threatened to bring a $120-million lawsuit to try to prevent the condominium from being built.

Source: South Florida Sun Sentinel, Oct. 3, 2007 Omni is a linchpin for revitalizing downtown Miami • Officials are hoping that the renovations to the Omni Center will be the turning point in the drive to revitalize downtown Miami and will act to bring mass of not only visitors to downtown but also more retail and commercial partners.

• The overhaul to the Omni Center will include a $26-million renovation and a change to a Hilton brand hotel, the leasing of 350,000 square feet of office space, and the renting of 300,000 square feet of retail and restaurant space.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Sept. 28, 2007 South Florida boasts most tech workers in the state • In a recent study released by the American Electronics Association, the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metropolitan area ranked highest in the state in total number of high-tech workers.

• The area boasts 75,300 tech workers and a hightech payroll of $4.6 billion in 2005, which puts it first in the state.

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

• The study, which highlighted the high-tech industry throughout the state, was meant to illustrate the importance of high-tech companies in a state that only trails California in the amount of those employed by such companies.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, Sept. 25, 2007 South Florida savings rate among worst • South Florida ranks near the bottom nationally in savings and investing, according to a recent study by A.G. Edwards.

• The metropolitan area ranks 488 out of 500 communities in the survey, while the state of Florida ranks 34th among all states.

Source: Miami Herald, Sept. 6, 2007

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Miami Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent)

7.0%

0.9

1.2

1.5

Miami Real Gross Metro Product 220000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

200000.0

6.0%

180000.0

5.0%

160000.0

4.0% 3.0%

0.6

140000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

120000.0

Miami Payroll Employment 2700.0 2600.0 2500.0 2400.0 2300.0 2200.0 2100.0 2000.0 1900.0

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income 8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Miami Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

231.5 6.2 114.2 117.3 196.6 4 41.9 35.6 46.2 3.9

234.9 6.6 115.6 119.4 197.9 3.4 42.4 35.8 46.7 4.1

238.1 6.1 116.9 121.1 200.1 3.6 42.9 36.1 47.1 4.2

241.2 6 118.3 122.9 202.3 4.3 43.4 36.4 47.5 3.9

244.5 5.6 120 124.5 204.4 4 43.9 36.7 47.9 3.7

247.9 5.5 121.7 126.2 206.7 4.5 44.3 37 48.3 3.6

251.6 5.7 123.6 128 209 4.5 44.9 37.3 48.8 3.5

255.4 5.9 125.3 130.1 211.3 4.5 45.4 37.6 49.2 3.5

259.1 6 127.2 132 213.6 4.5 45.9 37.8 49.6 3.5

262.9 6 129 133.9 216 4.5 46.4 38.1 50.1 3.6

266.9 6.1 131 135.9 218.5 4.5 46.9 38.4 50.6 3.7

271 6.1 132.9 138.1 221 4.6 47.5 38.7 51 3.8

274.9 6.1 134.8 140.2 223.4 4.6 48 39 51.5 3.7

278.9 6.1 136.6 142.3 225.8 4.5 48.5 39.3 51.9 3.6

2490.3 1.3 95.5 -3 2394.8 1.5 157 -2 552.7 0.8 149.2 305.6 96.9 53.6 0.3 188.7 1.2 419.8 4.1 321.4 2.4 261.4 0.9 103.9 1.3 34.1 1 302.3 1.4

2504.2 1.7 94.8 -2.8 2409.4 1.9 157.9 -1.1 554.6 1.1 149.4 307.2 97.6 53.5 0.2 189.6 1.8 427.6 5.5 322.5 2.2 262.9 1 103.8 0.9 34.1 1.2 302.9 1.1

2519.9 2.1 94.3 -2.8 2425.6 2.3 158.9 0.2 557 1.3 149.8 308.9 98.4 53.3 -0.2 190.8 2.4 436.2 7.2 324 2.1 264.1 1.4 103.7 0.4 34.2 1.1 303.5 1

2535.9 2.4 94.2 -2.3 2441.7 2.6 159 1.3 560.1 1.7 150.5 310.6 99.4 53.4 -0.1 191.9 2.4 445.5 8.2 325.6 2 264.1 0.9 103.7 0 34.2 0.8 304.1 0.9

2549.2 2.4 94 -1.5 2455.2 2.5 159.4 1.5 562.5 1.8 151.3 311.3 100.5 53.5 -0.1 193.2 2.4 453.9 8.1 326.7 1.6 263.3 0.7 103.8 -0.1 34.3 0.6 304.7 0.8

2562.3 2.3 94 -0.8 2468.3 2.4 160.4 1.6 564.4 1.8 152 311.9 101.4 53.6 0.2 194.5 2.6 460.9 7.8 327.4 1.5 263.3 0.2 103.8 0 34.6 1.3 305.3 0.8

2575.7 2.2 94.1 -0.3 2481.7 2.3 161.9 1.9 565.4 1.5 152.6 311.8 102.2 53.7 0.7 195.7 2.6 467.3 7.1 328 1.2 263.4 -0.3 103.8 0.1 36.5 6.6 306 0.8

2592.4 2.2 94.1 0 2498.3 2.3 163.8 3 567.3 1.3 153.4 312.3 103.1 53.8 0.6 196.5 2.4 476.3 6.9 328.8 1 263.9 0 103.9 0.2 37.3 9 306.7 0.8

2605.8 2.2 94.3 0.3 2511.5 2.3 165.5 3.8 568.8 1.1 154.1 312.2 104.2 53.9 0.7 197.5 2.3 484.9 6.8 329.6 0.9 264.7 0.5 104.1 0.3 35 2.2 307.5 0.9

2618.1 2.2 94.4 0.4 2523.7 2.2 167.4 4.4 570.1 1 154.8 311.9 105 54 0.7 198.6 2.1 490.9 6.5 330.1 0.8 265.7 0.9 104.3 0.4 34.3 -0.9 308.3 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2457.5 1.6 98.4 -1.3 2359.1 1.7 160.3 -0.8 548.3 1.7 148.6 304.9 94.8 53.4 -0.9 186.4 2.3 403.3 1.1 313.9 3.3 259.1 3.4 102.6 0.6 33.7 -0.6 298.1 1.8

2462.8 1.3 97.5 -2.3 2365.3 1.4 159.7 -1.7 548.6 1 148.8 304.1 95.2 53.3 -0.6 186.2 1.1 405.3 0.8 315.7 2.8 260.2 2.5 102.9 -0.7 33.7 -1.1 299.6 3.8

2467.6 1.2 97.1 -2 2370.5 1.3 158.5 -2.5 550 0.6 148.6 304.4 95.9 53.4 -0.7 186.4 0.4 406.7 0.8 317.3 3.1 260.5 2.2 103.3 0.5 33.8 -0.8 300.6 4.1

2476.9 1.3 96.4 -2.6 2380.5 1.4 157 -2.8 550.8 0.2 148.6 304.7 96.1 53.5 -0.3 187.4 0.6 411.9 1.5 319.3 2.4 261.6 2 103.7 0.3 34 0 301.4 6.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

189934 190599 190907 191800 193297 194930 196779 198557 200191 201903 203717 205825 207540 209183 5523.2 5535 5547.6 5561.5 5576 5591.9 5609 5627.2 5646 5665.4 5685.5 5706.3 5726.6 5747.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 2841.4 2850.6 2861.1 2871.4 2881.5 2892.5 2904.1 2917 2929.7 2942.3 2954.5 2966.4 2977.7 2989.1 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 3.8 3.9 3.9 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 16121 13424 12189 12196 14273 16052 18113 20126 21955 23659 25167 26466 27931 29323 8130 7664 6955 8067 8860 9712 11128 12282 13509 14826 16126 17121 18152 19323 7991 5760 5234 4129 5413 6340 6985 7844 8445 8833 9041 9345 9779 10000

*Quarterly at an annual rate

52

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

M iami – F o r t Lau d e r d a l e – M iami B eac h

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach (MD), FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

144.7 4.9 71.4 73.3 148.3 3.2 29.3 30 33.9 5

157 8.5 77.8 79.3 157 5.9 31.2 31.2 35.7 5.1

163.9 4.4 82 81.9 160.5 2.2 31.9 31.3 36.8 3.2

169.8 3.6 84.1 85.7 164 2.2 32.5 31.4 37.8 2.7

174 2.5 87.6 86.4 164.8 0.5 32.9 31.2 39.2 3.8

190.4 9.4 93.4 97 175.7 6.6 35.5 32.8 40.6 3.6

203.5 6.8 100.8 102.7 182.3 3.8 37.5 33.6 42.2 4

216.5 6.4 107.8 108.7 188.8 3.6 39.6 34.5 44.4 5

229.6 6.1 113.3 116.3 195.5 3.5 41.6 35.4 46 3.6

242.9 5.8 119.3 123.7 203.4 4.1 43.6 36.5 47.7 3.9

257.3 5.9 126.3 131 212.5 4.5 45.6 37.7 49.4 3.5

272.9 6.1 133.8 139.1 222.2 4.6 47.7 38.9 51.3 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2090.1 1.8 138.7 -2.7 1951.4 2.1 108.4 4.1 512.5 2.4 119.3 292.1 101.1 56.2 6.2 155.3 -0.7 283.4 5.6 253.2 0.7 211.3 0.9 92.9 1.4 31.3 0.6 246.9 0.9

2167 3.7 133.4 -3.8 2033.5 4.2 117 7.9 521.4 1.7 123.8 296.7 100.9 61.7 9.9 157.5 1.4 313.5 10.6 256.5 1.3 219.3 3.8 95.9 3.2 32.8 4.7 257.9 4.5

2213.1 2.1 122.9 -7.9 2090.2 2.8 120 2.6 523.1 0.3 130.9 293 99.1 65.8 6.6 159.4 1.2 338.9 8.1 263 2.5 226.9 3.5 93.3 -2.7 31.7 -3.5 268.1 3.9

2210.2 -0.1 112.4 -8.6 2097.9 0.4 118.8 -1.1 515.3 -1.5 132 286.1 97.1 61.8 -6.1 162.4 1.8 341 0.6 273.9 4.1 224.4 -1.1 93.6 0.3 32.1 1.3 274.8 2.5

2218.1 0.4 103.4 -8 2114.7 0.8 120.3 1.3 509.8 -1.1 133.9 282 93.9 57.5 -6.9 163.9 1 344.2 0.9 283.3 3.4 228.9 2 95.4 1.9 34.1 6.2 277.4 1

2285.4 3 100.8 -2.5 2184.6 3.3 129.4 7.6 516.3 1.3 138.3 284.9 93.2 56.6 -1.6 169.6 3.5 368.8 7.1 292.8 3.4 239.8 4.7 97.3 2 34.2 0.4 279.9 0.9

2372 3.8 101.1 0.3 2270.9 4 145.3 12.3 529.4 2.5 140.8 293.3 95.3 55.9 -1.1 177.8 4.8 397.3 7.7 300.7 2.7 247 3 98.5 1.3 34.5 1 284.4 1.6

2416.8 1.9 100.4 -0.7 2316.4 2 160.6 10.6 540.9 2.2 143.8 301.9 95.3 54 -3.4 182.8 2.8 399.9 0.7 304.7 1.3 251.1 1.6 101.5 3 34.1 -1.3 286.8 0.9

2451.3 1.4 98.5 -1.9 2352.8 1.6 161 0.2 548.3 1.4 147.8 305.7 94.7 53.5 -0.9 186.1 1.8 404.4 1.1 312.3 2.5 257.7 2.6 102.9 1.4 33.9 -0.6 292.6 2

2484.7 1.4 95.9 -2.6 2388.8 1.5 157.6 -2.1 552 0.7 148.9 305.5 96.6 53.5 -0.1 188 1 416.5 3 320.1 2.5 261.6 1.5 103.7 0.7 34 0.3 301.8 3.1

2541.8 2.3 94.1 -1.9 2447.7 2.5 159.4 1.2 561 1.6 150.9 310.7 99.9 53.5 0 192.6 2.4 449.1 7.8 325.9 1.8 263.7 0.8 103.8 0.1 34.3 0.9 304.4 0.9

2598 2.2 94.2 0.1 2503.8 2.3 164.7 3.3 567.9 1.2 153.7 312.1 103.6 53.8 0.7 197.1 2.3 479.9 6.8 329.1 1 264.4 0.3 104 0.2 35.8 4.2 307.1 0.9

139368 4944.7 2 2433.2 0.7 5.2 36342 22865 13477

144877 5040.1 1.9 2500.4 2.8 4.4 34456 22853 11602

150557 5130.3 1.8 2545.7 1.8 5.3 36290 24052 12237

153878 5216.9 1.7 2573.3 1.1 6.2 38407 22356 16051

159875 5285.4 1.3 2593.4 0.8 5.7 38960 23961 14999

167432 5359.8 1.4 2637.6 1.7 5.1 41565 24128 17437

177791 5427.3 1.3 2706.7 2.6 4.1 42321 22932 19389

183810 5469.9 0.8 2764.2 2.1 3.5 32419 16070 16348

188727 5517.2 0.9 2829.9 2.4 3.6 16248 8567 7681

192734 5569.3 0.9 2876.6 1.7 4 13678 8399 5279

199358 5636.9 1.2 2923.3 1.6 4.2 20963 12936 8027

206566 5716.5 1.4 2971.9 1.7 4.3 27222 17680 9541

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida, the area is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida.”

The Naples–Marco Island metropolitan area continues to experience high growth in many key economic indicators as well as very high raw numbers in important indicators. The area is expected to be one of the leaders in the state in personal income growth and average annual wage rate growth at average annual growth rates of 7.6% and 3.8%, respectively.

Additionally, the area will have the highest level of per capita personal income and the second highest level of average annual wages.

The area’s industry growth is expected to be concentrated among three key developing sectors— federal government, financial services, and professional and business services at expected annual growth rates of 4.1%, 4.0%, and 3.9%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 314,649 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 155,968 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.4%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 3,763 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Collier County School Board – 3,350 employees • NCH Healthcare Systems – 2,700 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,755 employees • Collier County Government – 1,060 employees • Marriott Corporation – 860 employees • County Sheriff’s Department – 838 employees • Winn Dixie Stores, Inc. – 760 employees • The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 758 employees • Naples Registry Resort – 600 employees • Collier Enterprises – 500 employees Source: Naples Homes Real Estate and Relocation Services

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Collier School Board passes $1-billion budget • The Collier School Board has been approved for a $1.19-billion budget for 2007-2008, the largest budget in the history of the district.

• Each student receives $10,000 when the total taxes collected by residents are divided by the number of students in the district.

Source: Naples Daily News, Sept. 11, 2007 East Naples mega-marketplace is beginning to take shape • In southeast Collier County, a marketplace named the Naples Big Cypress Market Place is planning to debut for this holiday season.

• The marketplace will contain an indoor flea market with over 300 booths, an entertainment area, a winery, and a convention center.

Source: Naples Daily News, Sept. 17, 2007

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Where are the citrus trees going?

• Collier County lost 612 acres of citrus and 81,400 trees between 2006 and 2007.

• The causes of the severe losses include disease, such as greening, and development. Due to the instances of disease, new rules have been placed on the growing patterns of nurseries, which attempt to prevent spreading but have, consequently, limited growth.

Source: Naples Daily News, Sept. 27, 2007 Industry downturn leads to more job seekers at Career and Service Center • The Collier County office of the Career and Service Center of Southwest Florida has seen increased traffic due heavily to layoffs in the construction industry.

• While the construction industry’s number of job positions has declined heavily, the retail and hospitality sectors of Collier have experienced the most job availability.

Source: Naples Daily News, Oct. 7, 2007 Bonita committee hopes to implement new construction restrictions • The Bonita Springs Local Planning Agency has proposed protecting the city’s waterways by adopting a 25-30 foot setback from the water.

• Areas to be affected include Estero Bay, the Imperial River, and many more creeks and canals throughout the city.

• The proposal aims to improve water quality, protect wildlife, decrease damage from flooding, and stabilize banks, but the restriction is meeting some opposition.

Source: Naples Daily News, Oct. 31, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d Naples MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.0

14000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 8000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

4000.0

(Thousands)

20.0%

120.0

10.0%

100.0

5.0%

80.0

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Naples Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income 15.0%

56

2.5

12000.0

140.0

60.0

2.0

Naples Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Payroll Employment 160.0

1.5

-5.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

18.3 8.2 6.2 12.1 15.6 6 56.7 48.1 44.6 4.5

18.8 8.9 6.3 12.5 15.8 5.6 57.7 48.6 45.1 4.2

19.1 8.3 6.4 12.8 16.1 5.7 58.5 49.2 45.5 4.2

19.4 8 6.5 12.9 16.3 6.3 59 49.5 45.9 3.9

19.7 7.6 6.6 13.1 16.5 6 59.6 49.8 46.3 3.8

20.1 6.7 6.7 13.3 16.7 5.6 60.2 50.2 46.7 3.7

20.4 6.4 6.9 13.5 16.9 5.1 60.7 50.5 47.1 3.7

20.7 6.7 7 13.8 17.2 5.3 61.5 50.9 47.5 3.6

21.1 6.9 7.1 14 17.4 5.4 62.2 51.2 48 3.6

21.5 7.1 7.2 14.3 17.7 5.5 62.9 51.7 48.5 3.7

21.8 7.2 7.3 14.5 17.9 5.6 63.5 52 49 3.8

22.2 7.2 7.5 14.8 18.1 5.7 64.2 52.4 49.4 3.9

22.6 7.3 7.6 15 18.4 5.8 65 52.8 49.8 3.8

23.1 7.4 7.7 15.4 18.7 5.9 65.8 53.3 50.3 3.7

142 2.4 3.3 -1.2 138.7 2.5 24.1 -0.5 26.1 3.3 3.5 20.8 1.7 1.9 3.2 8.7 3.3 17.6 4.2 16.1 3.8 23.6 2.6 6 1.8 0.7 1.9 14 2.1

143.4 3.1 3.2 -2.3 140.1 3.2 24.4 1.3 26.3 3.6 3.5 21 1.7 1.9 3.7 8.8 4.4 17.8 4.8 16.3 4.2 23.8 3.4 6.1 1.6 0.7 2.4 14.1 2.2

144.8 3.5 3.2 -1.5 141.5 3.6 24.7 2.7 26.6 3.7 3.5 21.3 1.7 1.9 3.6 8.9 5.1 18.1 5.8 16.4 4.6 24 3.6 6.1 1.2 0.7 -2.5 14.1 2.2

146 3.6 3.3 -0.8 142.7 3.7 24.8 3.6 26.9 4 3.6 21.5 1.8 1.9 3.4 8.9 4.6 18.4 6.2 16.6 4.3 24.2 2.9 6.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 14.2 2.1

147 3.5 3.3 0 143.7 3.6 25 3.5 27.1 3.9 3.6 21.6 1.8 2 3.1 9 4.3 18.7 6.4 16.7 3.7 24.2 2.6 6.1 0.9 0.7 3.6 14.3 2.1

148.1 3.3 3.3 0.5 144.9 3.4 25.2 3.2 27.3 3.5 3.7 21.8 1.8 2 3.1 9.1 4.5 19 6.5 16.8 3.5 24.3 1.8 6.1 1.1 0.8 7.5 14.3 2

149.3 3.1 3.3 0.7 146 3.2 25.5 3.2 27.4 3 3.7 21.8 1.8 2 3.3 9.2 4.5 19.2 6 16.9 3.2 24.4 1.3 6.1 1.2 0.9 28.5 14.4 2.1

150.6 3.2 3.3 0.8 147.4 3.2 25.9 4.2 27.6 2.7 3.7 22 1.9 2 3.3 9.3 4.4 19.5 6 17.1 2.9 24.5 1.5 6.2 1.4 0.8 9.3 14.5 2.2

152 3.4 3.3 0.9 148.7 3.5 26.2 5.1 27.7 2.4 3.8 22.1 1.9 2 3.2 9.4 4.1 19.9 6.4 17.2 2.8 24.6 2 6.2 1.4 0.8 9.2 14.6 2.3

153.3 3.5 3.3 1.1 150 3.5 26.6 5.6 27.9 2.2 3.8 22.1 1.9 2 3.1 9.5 3.9 20.2 6.4 17.3 2.7 24.8 2.2 6.2 1.5 0.8 3.4 14.7 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

138.7 2 3.3 0 135.4 2 24.2 -1.2 25.3 2.3 3.3 20.3 1.7 1.8 -3.5 8.4 5.5 16.9 -1.4 15.5 2.2 23 4.1 5.9 2.9 0.7 -0.1 13.7 6.9

139.1 2.1 3.3 0.5 135.8 2.2 24.1 -2.5 25.4 4.5 3.4 20.4 1.7 1.8 -3.6 8.4 6.3 17 -0.5 15.6 2.5 23 3.4 6 2.9 0.7 0.4 13.8 6.1

139.8 1.9 3.3 -0.4 136.5 2 24.1 -2 25.6 4.2 3.4 20.5 1.7 1.9 -1.5 8.4 2.4 17.1 1.3 15.7 3.1 23.2 2.3 6 3.9 0.7 0.8 13.8 3.9

140.9 2.3 3.3 -0.4 137.6 2.4 24 -2.2 25.8 4.2 3.4 20.6 1.7 1.9 -0.4 8.6 2.6 17.3 3.3 15.9 3.4 23.5 3.8 6 2.9 0.7 1.6 13.9 3.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10520.4 10582.8 323.7 325.6 2.3 2.3 160 159.2 3.5 2.4 4.2 4.7 1842 1861 1062 1078 781 783

10642 10737.8 327.4 329.3 2.3 2.3 160.6 162.1 3.2 2.6 4.8 4.9 1693 1661 954 1056 739 605

10867 11009.6 11157.8 11297.9 11429.9 11572.5 11723.9 11884.7 12040.3 12188.3 331.3 333.3 335.3 337.3 339.4 341.6 343.8 346.1 348.4 350.8 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 163.5 164.8 166.2 167.5 168.8 170.2 171.5 172.9 174.3 175.6 2.1 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.9 4.9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4.9 2013 2396 2775 3087 3320 3523 3712 3887 4103 4302 1207 1399 1647 1841 2015 2194 2377 2537 2702 2857 806 997 1128 1245 1304 1329 1335 1350 1400 1445

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57

Nap l e s – M a r c o I s l a n d

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.3 8.3 3 6.4 9.6 6.5 37.9 38.9 31.6 6.8

10 7.2 3.4 6.6 10 4.6 39.2 39.2 33.9 7.2

11.1 10.5 3.7 7.3 10.8 8.2 41.6 40.7 35 3.3

11.6 4.9 4 7.6 11.2 3.5 41.9 40.4 35.6 1.6

12.3 5.9 4.4 7.9 11.6 3.8 42.7 40.5 38.7 8.6

14.5 18.3 4.9 9.7 13.4 15.3 48.8 45 40.1 3.8

15.2 4.8 5.4 9.8 13.7 1.7 49.4 44.3 42 4.6

16.8 10 5.8 11 14.6 7 53.1 46.3 42.8 1.9

18.2 8.6 6.2 12 15.5 6 56.4 48 44.4 3.7

19.6 7.7 6.6 13 16.4 5.9 59.3 49.7 46.1 3.9

20.9 6.8 7 13.9 17.3 5.3 61.8 51.1 47.8 3.7

22.4 7.3 7.5 14.9 18.3 5.7 64.6 52.6 49.6 3.8

128.3 6.3 3.2 3 125.1 6.4 20.3 21.3 24.3 5.6 3.4 19.1 1.8 1.8 -0.1 7.7 9.3 16.3 -6.5 14.5 7.9 21.5 7.4 5.7 5.1 0.7 0 12.3 2.9

135.2 5.4 3.3 2.9 131.9 5.4 24.2 19 24.5 1.1 3.2 19.7 1.7 1.9 3.2 8 3.8 17 4.2 15.2 4.7 21.9 1.8 5.8 2.2 0.7 0 12.7 3.3

138.2 2.2 3.3 0.4 134.9 2.3 24.4 0.6 25 2 3.3 20.1 1.6 1.9 -0.9 8.3 4.1 16.9 -0.5 15.4 1.6 22.8 4.2 5.9 1.6 0.7 0.1 13.6 6.8

141.5 2.4 3.3 -1.1 138.3 2.5 24.1 -0.9 26 3.8 3.4 20.7 1.7 1.9 1.2 8.6 3.2 17.5 3.4 16 3.6 23.5 3 6 2.5 0.7 1.6 13.9 2.8

146.5 3.5 3.3 -0.5 143.2 3.6 24.9 3.3 26.9 3.8 3.6 21.5 1.8 2 3.3 9 4.6 18.5 6.3 16.6 4 24.2 2.7 6.1 1 0.7 2.3 14.2 2.1

151.3 3.3 3.3 0.9 148 3.4 26.1 4.5 27.6 2.6 3.8 22 1.9 2 3.2 9.4 4.2 19.7 6.2 17.1 2.9 24.6 1.7 6.2 1.4 0.8 12.2 14.6 2.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

93.1 3.5 2.9 5.2 90.3 3.5 11.5 8.9 19.8 2.4 2.7 15.5 1.6 1.7 -2.5 5.6 2.2 11.2 3.1 10.4 1.6 15.4 2.1 4.7 4.8 0.6 1.3 9.3 5.4

99.8 7.1 2.9 1.7 96.8 7.3 13.2 13.9 20.8 4.9 2.8 16.3 1.7 1.8 6.1 5.9 5 12.1 8.4 11.1 6.6 16.7 8.3 4.9 3.9 0.7 20.5 9.7 4.3

106.5 6.7 3.2 9.4 103.3 6.6 14.6 10.7 22.2 7.2 3 17.5 1.8 1.8 0.5 6.2 4.8 12.5 3.5 12.1 9.7 17.4 4 5.1 4.6 0.7 -4.5 10.6 9.1

110.8 4.1 3.1 -3.4 107.7 4.3 14.7 1 22.7 2.1 3.3 17.6 1.9 1.8 -0.9 6.5 4.5 13.4 7.1 12.8 5.1 18.3 5.3 5.5 7 0.7 0 11.3 7.1

114.1 3 2.9 -5.3 111.2 3.3 14.6 -0.8 22.4 -1.3 3.1 17.7 1.7 1.7 -3.3 6.7 2.6 16.1 19.8 13.2 3.3 18.5 1.2 5.5 -0.3 0.7 0 11.8 4.5

120.6 5.7 3.1 5.9 117.5 5.7 16.8 14.8 23 2.4 3.3 18 1.7 1.8 7.3 7.1 5.9 17.4 8.1 13.4 1.9 20 8.2 5.4 -1.4 0.7 0 11.9 1

6089.9 246.1 4.8 99.6 3.4 3.8 6956 3829 3127

6525.9 255.5 3.8 116.1 16.6 3.7 7677 4250 3427

7068.4 266.1 4.1 123.6 6.5 4.1 7602 4111 3491

7511.7 277.2 4.2 129.6 4.9 5.1 7129 4377 2752

7980.4 287.5 3.7 133.6 3.1 4.9 5476 3460 2016

8589.3 298.1 3.7 139 4 4.2 6236 4097 2139

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

9405 10047.2 10439.5 10814.1 11364.5 11959.3 308.4 315.6 322.8 330.3 338.4 347.3 3.5 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 145.4 153.4 158.2 162.8 168.2 173.6 4.6 5.5 3.2 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.5 3 3.9 4.9 5 5 5822 4276 2205 1941 3176 4001 4110 3099 1312 1154 1924 2618 1712 1177 894 787 1252 1383

Oca l a

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area in the center of the state. The second-largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala metropolitan statistical area is making strong gains on the rest of the state in many key economic indicators, which shows the relative growth and activity in the area. Ocala is one of the leaders in the state in personal income growth as well as average annual wage growth at average annual growth rates of 7.2% and 3.9%, respectively. While actual levels of personal income and average annual wage are still lagging, the high population, personal income, and average annual wage growth rates indicate that this might not be the case in the future.

The fastest growing industries in the Ocala region reflect that of the industry growth throughout the state.

The fastest growing industry is education and health services at an average annual growth rate of 3.8%, with professional and business services just behind that at an average rate of 3.7%.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 316,183 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 130,055 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,157 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Marion County School Board – 5,700 employees • Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,427 employees • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,263 employees • Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 1,935 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,400 employees • Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,319 employees • Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital – 1,301 employees • Emergency One, Inc. – 1,274 employees • City of Ocala – 1,100 employees • Cingular Wireless – 1,000 employees

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Manufacturer opens factory in Ocala • American Spaceframe Fabricators International celebrated the grand opening of its Ocala facility in early November. The company was forced to relocate after outgrowing its old facilities in Crystal River.

• The new facility has 120,000 square feet, threeand-a-half times the usable space of the old facility. One of the company’s current projects is a 400,000-square-foot tensioned-fabric structure for a church in Puerto Rico. The building is expected to cost between $15 and $20 million.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, Nov. 10, 2007

Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

Oca l a

County jobless rate remains steady • Unemployment in Marion County has remained steady at 4.8 percent in October, one sign that the local economy is stabilizing. The jobless rate, according to the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation, remained unchanged since July.

• Another sign of economic stability in the region is seen in the prosperity of local banks. Ocala’s First Avenue National Bank has seen strong business throughout the year, facing high demand for loans.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, Nov. 17, 2007 Improving downtown parking • The parking woes of downtown may soon come to an end. The city has recently hired Realistic Transportation Alternatives Inc. to provide the Downtown Development Commission with a preliminary assessment of the local parking needs. Because of the increases in customers, businesses, and people moving to the area, parking will soon become an issue.

• The solution proposed by Realistic is twofold: better signage and more effective use of parking meters. The removal of merchant-reserved spots and an employee-specific lot were also suggested.

If approved, the changes to the downtown parking could be seen within the next several months.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, Nov. 16, 2007 Ocala’s Lockheed Martin celebrates • The Ocala Lockheed Martin plan celebrated a milestone early in November with the delivery of the 20,000 Hellfire missile to be produced at the plant. The missile’s electronic guidance systems are manufactured at the company’s facility in Ocala.

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

• A total of 110 people currently work on the project in the Ocala plant. The project brings roughly $20 million in business to the Ocala plant each year. The missiles themselves cost between $50,000 and $100,000, depending on how it is configured.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, Nov. 9, 2007 Diversity helps keep local economy strong • The Marion County economy has proved to be rather resilient to the general economic problems seen statewide and nationwide. The reasoning behind this is likely due to economic diversification. Between tourism, manufacturing, equine, construction, health care, retail, and service industries, there is no specific industry that can weigh down the economy.

• In the retail sector, the new Market Street at Heath Brook Mall is scheduled to open early next year, bringing a plethora of new options to shoppers • In the manufacturing sector fire truck manufacturer Emergency One remains the county’s largest manufacturing employer with 1,282 jobs.

• A $26.7-million incentive package was offered to E-One earlier this year when the company considered building a new plant.

• The Ocala/Marion County Visitor and Convention Bureau recently authorized a feasibility study to determine whether the area can support a convention/meeting facility.

Source: The Ocala Star Banner, Nov. 21, 2007

Oca l a Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

(percent)

1.0

2.5

11000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

(Thousands)

5000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0%

110.0

6.0%

100.0

4.0%

90.0

2.0%

80.0 70.0

2.0

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Payroll Employment 120.0

1.5

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Ocala Payroll Employment

-2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61

Oca l a

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

9.6 7.3 3.8 5.8 8.1 5.1 28.8 24.4 35 5.2

9.8 7.8 3.8 5.9 8.2 4.6 29 24.5 35.4 4.1

9.9 7.2 3.9 6.1 8.3 4.6 29.2 24.6 35.7 4.1

10.1 7.1 3.9 6.2 8.5 5.4 29.4 24.7 36 3.7

10.3 7.1 4 6.3 8.6 5.4 29.6 24.8 36.3 3.5

10.4 6.6 4 6.4 8.7 5.5 29.8 24.9 36.6 3.5

10.6 6.4 4.1 6.5 8.8 5.2 30 24.9 36.9 3.4

10.8 6.6 4.2 6.6 8.9 5.2 30.3 25 37.2 3.4

10.9 6.7 4.2 6.7 9 5.2 30.6 25.2 37.5 3.4

11.1 6.9 4.3 6.8 9.1 5.3 30.8 25.3 37.9 3.5

11.3 7 4.4 6.9 9.3 5.4 31.1 25.4 38.3 3.7

11.5 6.9 4.4 7.1 9.4 5.4 31.3 25.6 38.6 3.7

11.7 6.9 4.5 7.2 9.5 5.4 31.7 25.8 38.9 3.7

11.9 6.9 4.6 7.3 9.6 5.4 32.1 26 39.2 3.6

114.9 2.5 9.6 0.7 105.3 2.7 12 3.8 25.1 2 4.5 17.5 3 2.3 2.1 6.2 3.3 11.5 5.5 14.8 2.4 10.4 1.6 4.4 0.8 0.8 7.1 17.7 2.2

115.6 2.5 9.7 0.8 105.9 2.7 12.2 4.3 25.2 1.8 4.5 17.5 3.1 2.3 1.9 6.3 3.2 11.7 5.5 14.9 2.3 10.5 1.9 4.4 0.9 0.8 2.4 17.8 2.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106.8 0.4 9.8 -2 97 0.6 11.4 -1.3 23.1 -1.5 4.2 16.3 2.6 2.1 -4.5 5.7 0.7 10 -1 13.4 4.7 9.6 0 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.1 16.6 3.2

107.6 1.1 9.8 -0.9 97.8 1.3 11.5 -1.4 23.3 0.2 4.2 16.3 2.7 2.1 -4.1 5.7 0.7 10.1 -1.1 13.5 4.6 9.8 4.4 4.3 2.4 0.7 -0.3 16.7 2.7

108.1 1.2 9.8 -1.4 98.3 1.5 11.5 -1.3 23.5 -0.3 4.3 16.4 2.7 2.1 -3.7 5.7 0.2 10.1 1.1 13.6 4.4 9.9 4.9 4.3 2.6 0.7 0.4 16.8 3

108.6 1.7 9.7 -0.9 98.9 1.9 11.4 -1.8 23.6 1.3 4.3 16.5 2.7 2.1 -2.1 5.8 1.2 10.2 1.4 13.8 4.5 10 5.1 4.3 1.1 0.7 1 16.9 3.1

109.3 2.4 9.6 -1.4 99.6 2.7 11.4 -0.2 23.8 3 4.3 16.6 2.7 2.2 3.1 5.8 1.5 10.3 3.3 14 4.5 10 4.2 4.4 1.2 0.7 1.5 17 2.7

110 2.2 9.6 -2.3 100.4 2.7 11.5 -0.4 24 3.2 4.3 16.8 2.8 2.2 2.7 5.9 2.8 10.5 3.8 14.1 4.1 10.1 3.1 4.4 1 0.7 2 17.1 2.4

110.7 2.4 9.6 -2.3 101.2 2.9 11.6 0.7 24.2 3.1 4.3 17 2.8 2.2 2.3 5.9 3.4 10.6 4.9 14.2 4.3 10.2 3.4 4.4 0.7 0.7 -2.2 17.2 2.2

111.5 2.6 9.6 -1.7 101.9 3 11.6 1.6 24.4 3.4 4.4 17.2 2.8 2.2 2.1 6 3.3 10.8 5.5 14.3 4 10.3 2.7 4.4 0.4 0.7 0.2 17.3 2.1

112.1 2.6 9.6 -0.9 102.5 2.9 11.6 1.6 24.6 3.4 4.4 17.3 2.9 2.2 2 6 3.2 10.9 5.8 14.4 3.4 10.3 2.3 4.4 0.3 0.7 2.7 17.4 2

112.7 2.5 9.6 -0.1 103.2 2.8 11.7 1.7 24.8 3.1 4.4 17.3 2.9 2.2 2.1 6.1 3.5 11.1 5.8 14.5 3.1 10.3 1.5 4.4 0.5 0.8 6.1 17.4 1.9

113.4 2.5 9.6 0.4 103.8 2.7 11.8 2 24.8 2.7 4.5 17.4 2.9 2.2 2.4 6.1 3.5 11.2 5.2 14.6 2.8 10.3 0.8 4.4 0.6 0.8 23.6 17.5 1.9

114.1 2.4 9.6 0.5 104.5 2.6 11.9 3 25 2.3 4.5 17.5 3 2.2 2.3 6.2 3.5 11.3 5.2 14.7 2.5 10.4 1.1 4.4 0.7 0.8 6.2 17.6 2

8921.9 333.1 4.3 136.3 2.6 4.6 2569 2370 199

9009.4 336.3 4.2 136.6 1.5 5 2621 2441 180

9056.9 339.6 4.1 137.6 2.4 5 2360 2200 159

9126.9 342.8 4 138.5 2.3 5.1 2462 2332 129

9219.5 346 3.9 139.5 2.3 5.2 2716 2572 145

9319.2 349.2 3.8 140.4 2.8 5.2 3014 2872 142

9424 352.3 3.7 141.3 2.7 5.2 3378 3234 144

9529.1 355.3 3.7 142.2 2.6 5.3 3657 3506 150

9627.1 358.3 3.6 143.1 2.6 5.3 3900 3747 153

9730.1 361.3 3.5 143.9 2.5 5.3 4145 3992 153

9838.6 364.2 3.4 144.8 2.5 5.3 4331 4180 151

9944.5 367 3.3 145.7 2.5 5.3 4480 4329 151

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily *Quarterly at an annual rate

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

10047 10141.8 368.9 370.9 3 2.7 146.6 147.5 2.5 2.5 5.3 5.2 4665 4870 4507 4712 157 158

Oca l a

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.5 6.1 2.1 3.4 5.6 4.3 21.5 22 25.1 3.2

5.9 7.2 2.2 3.7 5.9 4.6 22.6 22.6 25.9 3

6.2 4.5 2.3 3.8 6 2.3 23.1 22.7 26.9 4

6.3 2.2 2.4 3.9 6.1 0.8 23 22.2 28.1 4.4

6.7 6.9 2.7 4.1 6.4 4.8 23.9 22.6 29.7 5.9

7.5 11.4 2.9 4.6 6.9 8.5 25.6 23.6 30.4 2.4

8.2 8.9 3.2 5 7.3 5.8 26.7 24 31.7 4.2

8.8 8.4 3.5 5.3 7.7 5.5 27.8 24.3 33.3 5.1

9.5 7.5 3.7 5.8 8.1 4.9 28.7 24.4 34.8 4.6

10.2 7 4 6.2 8.5 5.2 29.5 24.7 36.1 3.7

10.9 6.7 4.2 6.7 9 5.2 30.4 25.1 37.4 3.5

11.6 6.9 4.5 7.1 9.4 5.4 31.5 25.7 38.7 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

83.9 2.4 11.3 0.5 72.6 2.7 6.3 2.2 19.8 1.8 2.7 14.3 2.8 2.5 1.7 3.8 3.6 7.4 10.3 8.2 2 7.3 0.2 3.2 4.4 0.7 7.3 13.5 1.8

86 2.5 11.1 -1.8 74.9 3.2 6.3 0.7 20.4 3.3 2.8 15.1 2.6 2.6 3.8 3.9 1.1 7.7 4.3 8.5 4.1 7.1 -1.9 3.4 7.9 0.9 21.8 14.1 4.2

85.8 -0.2 9.9 -10.7 75.9 1.3 6.1 -2.6 20.7 1.2 3 14.9 2.8 2.4 -6.5 3.9 1.7 7.2 -6.4 9.2 7.7 7.6 6.1 3.5 1.9 0.7 -18.9 14.6 3.5

86.1 0.4 9.3 -5.5 76.8 1.1 6.4 4.9 20.5 -0.7 3.1 14.8 2.6 2.3 -4.5 4 1.1 7.2 0.4 9.7 5.3 7.6 0.3 3.6 3.6 0.7 2.3 14.7 0.7

89 3.4 9.2 -1 79.8 3.9 7.6 17.5 20.9 2 3.3 15.1 2.5 2.2 -5.1 4.3 9.2 7.6 4.8 10.5 8.5 7.7 0.9 3.6 -1.6 0.7 -2.3 14.7 0.4

95 6.7 9.6 4.1 85.4 7 9 18.8 21.7 3.7 3.7 15.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 4.9 12.5 8.2 7.5 11.1 6 8.7 13.1 3.8 7.7 0.7 0 15.1 2.4

100.6 5.9 9.9 3.5 90.7 6.2 9.8 9.6 22.9 5.6 3.9 16.3 2.7 2.2 -2.3 5.4 11.1 8.9 9.5 12 7.6 9.2 6.3 4 5.2 0.7 0 15.4 2.2

105.6 4.9 10 0.1 95.6 5.4 11.5 16.5 23.3 1.8 4.1 16.5 2.7 2.2 0.8 5.7 5.2 9.9 10.7 12.7 5.9 9.5 3.3 4.1 1.9 0.7 0 16 3.6

107 1.4 9.8 -1.2 97.2 1.6 11.6 0.7 23.3 -0.1 4.2 16.4 2.7 2.2 -0.7 5.7 0.2 10 1.5 13.3 4.7 9.6 0.8 4.3 4.3 0.7 0 16.5 3.2

109 1.9 9.7 -1.5 99.3 2.2 11.4 -0.9 23.7 1.8 4.3 16.6 2.7 2.2 -0.1 5.8 1.4 10.3 2.4 13.9 4.4 10 4.3 4.3 1.5 0.7 1.2 17 2.8

111.8 2.5 9.6 -1.3 102.2 2.9 11.6 1.4 24.5 3.2 4.4 17.2 2.9 2.2 2.1 6 3.4 10.8 5.5 14.4 3.7 10.3 2.5 4.4 0.5 0.7 1.7 17.3 2.1

114.5 2.5 9.6 0.6 104.9 2.6 12 3.3 25 2.2 4.5 17.5 3 2.2 2.2 6.2 3.4 11.4 5.4 14.7 2.5 10.4 1.3 4.4 0.8 0.8 9.6 17.7 2.1

5948.9 255.7 2 102.7 1.9 3.8 2832 2741 91

6122.4 260.9 2 109.2 6.4 4 2507 2441 66

6210.6 266.1 2 109.3 0.1 5 3246 3220 26

6391.9 273.4 2.8 111.7 2.2 5.9 5836 5342 494

6839.6 282.1 3.2 114.7 2.7 5.4 6832 6081 751

7448.6 293 3.9 119.8 4.4 4.6 5185 5096 89

8094.6 305.1 4.1 125 4.4 3.9 7288 6730 558

8621.8 317.9 4.2 131.7 5.3 3.4 7322 6984 338

8898.1 331.3 4.2 135.7 3 4.2 3435 3057 377

9180.6 344.4 3.9 139 2.5 5.1 2638 2494 144

9577.6 356.8 3.6 142.6 2.6 5.3 3770 3620 150

9993 367.7 3.1 146.2 2.5 5.3 4586 4432 154

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

P r o fi l e s The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola, and Seminole counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World and numerous other Disney enterprises, Universal Studios, and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic, the Orlando Predators arena football team, and Atlanta Braves spring training at Disney’s Wide World of Sports. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s seventh-largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 1,984,855 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Lake County population estimate of 290,435 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Orange County population estimate of 1,043,500 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Osceola County population estimate of 244,045 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Seminole County population estimate of 406,875 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,074,583 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 30,721 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Walt Disney Co. – 56,800 employees • Orange County Public Schools – 24,063 employees • Florida Hospital (Avent Health System) – 19,270 employees 64

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. – 16,757 employees • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 15,606 employees • Universal Orlando – 12,500 employees • Orlando Regional Healthcare System – 11,093 employees • University of Central Florida – 8,946 employees • Central Florida Investments/Westgate Resorts – 7,500 employees • Darden Restaurants, Inc. – 7,361 employees Sources: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission & Orange County Library System

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Orlando–Kissimmee remains near the top of the state in growth of key indicators and is one of the leaders in the state in both personal income growth and average annual wage rate growth at rates of 6.8 and 3.6%, respectively. The influx of people and jobs in the Orlando area continues to grow as the area leads the state in employment growth at average annual rates of 3.0% and experiences robust growth in population at average annual rates of 2.8%.

The fastest growing industries in the Orlando region reflect that of the industry growth throughout the state.

The fastest growing industry is professional and business services at an average annual growth rate of 6.0%, with education and health services just behind that at an average rate of 3.4%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Ruth’s Chris pays $94 million for seafood chain • Lake Mary based Ruth’s Chris Steak House has recently acquired Mitchell’s Fish Market and Columbus Fish Market, a seafood chain with locations throughout the Midwest, Northeast, and Florida.

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

• The $94-million dollar purchase of this upscale chain is a move that the company expects will add a new dynamic to its well-known upscale steak houses.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Nov. 6, 2007 Cheaper schools are silver lining to housing bust • One of the few pleasant surprises for struggling contractors during the housing bust is that it has stabilized the prices for construction. As the construction market has become more competitive, Orlando-area schools have benefited by seeing declines in the prices to build new schools and renovate older ones.

• The effect of this competition is a dip in construction prices of 2-4 percent annually, when at one time housing prices were increasing at a rate of 15-20 percent annually.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, Nov. 5, 2007

Orlando arena project forges ahead • Another hurdle has been surpassed in the process of constructing new venues, as hotel magnate Harris Rosen removed his objection to the new arena for the Orlando Magic.

• The repeal from Rosen comes hand in hand with the securing of $340 million in bonds, which will pay for the new arena over the next 30 years with money from the hotel tax.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, Nov. 27, 2007

Florida Hospital reaches $100-million goal early • Florida Hospital has recently achieved a milestone in its ambitious fundraising campaign by securing the first $100 million of its $600million fundraising campaign.

• In addition to covering the normal costs of operations and upgrades, the funds will go to support the new Florida Hospital Diabetes Institute and research at the Florida Hospital Cancer Institute.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, Nov. 19, 2007 UCF health systems sign pact • The University of Central Florida medical school has reached a milestone in its efforts to become accredited by signing an agreement with Orlando Regional Healthcare and Florida Hospital.

• The agreement between the university and the health systems allows the two hospitals to serve as clinical training sites for future students of the medical school.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, Oct. 25, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee Orlando - Kissimee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.5

1.5

2.0

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product 100000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 60000.0 50000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

40000.0

Orlando Payroll Employment 1300.0

(Thousands)

1200.0

Orlando Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1000.0

4.0%

900.0

2.0%

800.0 700.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

8.0%

1100.0

66

1.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 OrlandoPayroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

70.4 6.7 45.1 25.4 59.8 4.6 34.2 29.1 40.6 3.8

71.7 7.2 45.8 25.9 60.4 4 34.6 29.1 41 4.1

72.8 6.9 46.5 26.3 61.2 4.4 34.9 29.3 41.4 4.2

73.9 6.7 47.2 26.8 62 5 35.2 29.5 41.7 3.9

75.1 6.7 48 27.2 62.8 5 35.5 29.7 42.1 3.6

76.4 6.6 48.8 27.6 63.7 5.5 35.9 29.9 42.4 3.5

77.8 6.8 49.7 28 64.6 5.5 36.3 30.1 42.8 3.4

79.1 6.9 50.5 28.5 65.4 5.5 36.6 30.3 43.1 3.4

80.4 7.1 51.4 29 66.3 5.5 37 30.5 43.5 3.5

81.8 7 52.3 29.5 67.2 5.4 37.4 30.7 43.9 3.6

83.1 6.9 53.2 29.9 68.1 5.3 37.8 30.9 44.3 3.6

84.6 7 54.1 30.5 69 5.4 38.2 31.2 44.7 3.7

86 7 55.1 31 69.9 5.5 38.6 31.4 45.1 3.7

87.5 7 56 31.5 70.8 5.4 39 31.6 45.5 3.6

1136.7 2.7 43.1 -2.3 1093.6 2.9 86.7 -0.6 208.9 2.6 47.9 128.6 31.6 27.9 1 67.8 2.6 208.1 5.2 115.9 4.7 200.7 2.6 55.9 2.2 11.3 1.4 110.4 1.9

1147.2 2.9 42.9 -2.1 1104.3 3.2 87.4 0.2 210.4 2.8 48.2 129.9 31.9 28 1.3 68.3 2.9 212.5 6.2 116.8 4.3 202.6 2.6 55.9 1.8 11.4 1.6 110.9 1.8

1158.5 3.4 42.8 -2 1115.7 3.6 88.3 1.6 212 2.9 48.6 131.1 32.2 28 1.1 68.9 3.4 217.4 7.8 118 4.3 204.2 2.9 56 1.3 11.4 1.5 111.5 1.8

1169.1 3.6 42.9 -1.3 1126.2 3.8 88.7 2.7 213.9 3.2 49 132.3 32.6 28.1 1.1 69.5 3.5 222.5 8.7 119.1 4.1 204.9 2.4 56.2 0.9 11.4 1.3 112 1.8

1178.2 3.7 42.9 -0.4 1135.3 3.8 89.2 2.9 215.4 3.1 49.5 133.1 33 28.2 1 70.1 3.5 227.1 9.1 119.9 3.5 204.9 2.1 56.4 0.9 11.4 1.1 112.5 1.8

1187.5 3.5 43.1 0.4 1144.4 3.6 90.1 3 216.8 3 49.9 133.7 33.4 28.3 1.3 70.7 3.6 231.2 8.8 120.6 3.2 205.6 1.5 56.5 1 11.6 1.8 113 1.8

1196.6 3.3 43.2 0.8 1153.5 3.4 91.3 3.4 217.7 2.7 50.3 134.1 33.7 28.4 1.6 71.4 3.6 234.7 8 121.3 2.8 206.3 1 56.7 1.2 12.2 6.8 113.5 1.8

1207.3 3.3 43.3 1 1164 3.4 92.6 4.4 219 2.4 50.8 134.7 34.1 28.6 1.6 71.9 3.5 239.4 7.6 121.9 2.4 207.4 1.3 56.8 1.2 12.3 7.8 114 1.8

1217.2 3.3 43.5 1.2 1173.7 3.4 93.9 5.2 220.1 2.2 51.2 134.9 34.5 28.7 1.5 72.4 3.3 244.1 7.5 122.6 2.2 208.6 1.8 57.1 1.2 11.7 2.5 114.6 1.9

1226.6 3.3 43.6 1.3 1183 3.4 95.3 5.8 221.1 2 51.6 135.2 34.9 28.8 1.5 73 3.2 247.5 7.1 123.2 2.1 210 2.2 57.3 1.4 11.5 -0.2 115.2 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1106.8 2.4 44.1 1 1062.7 2.4 87.2 0.2 203.5 2.5 46.5 126.3 30.7 27.7 -1.7 66.1 0 197.9 2.1 110.6 2.8 195.6 4 54.7 3.6 11.2 -2.8 108.3 4

1114.3 2.1 43.8 0.3 1070.5 2.2 87.3 -0.7 204.6 2.5 46.9 126.6 30.8 27.6 -1.7 66.3 -0.5 200.1 2.3 112 3.3 197.4 2.9 55 2.8 11.2 0 109 4.2

1120.4 2.3 43.7 -0.8 1076.7 2.4 86.9 -0.9 206.2 2.5 47.1 127.1 31.2 27.7 -2.3 66.6 -0.5 201.6 2.8 113.2 3.3 198.6 3.7 55.3 2.9 11.2 -0.7 109.5 4.2

1128.1 2.4 43.4 -0.8 1084.7 2.5 86.4 -0.9 207.3 1.8 47.4 127.7 31.3 27.8 -0.8 67.1 0.9 204.6 4.2 114.4 4 200.1 3.2 55.6 2.5 11.3 -0.8 110 3

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

80108.7 80737.8 81163.4 81794.6 82670.6 83655.6 84756.8 85791.5 86763.3 87776.6 88822.2 89969.9 90988.2 91979.2 2057.9 2073.1 2088 2102.5 2116.5 2130.3 2144.2 2158.2 2172.1 2186 2200 2213.9 2227.3 2241 3 3 3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 1095.2 1104.2 1113.1 1121.8 1130.3 1138.6 1146.4 1154.1 1161.4 1168.6 1176.1 1183.4 1190.4 1197.4 3.1 2.6 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.1 3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 19151 14912 12893 13401 14671 15991 17421 18587 19708 20775 21585 22371 23327 24253 13322 10029 8493 9617 10500 11449 12720 13625 14630 15690 16557 17352 18245 19182 5829 4882 4400 3784 4171 4542 4700 4962 5078 5085 5028 5019 5082 5071

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67

O r l a n d o – K i s s immee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

41.2 7.8 26.3 14.9 42.2 6 25.5 26.1 29.8 4

44.7 8.6 28.7 16.1 44.7 6 26.9 26.9 31.3 5.2

46.4 3.6 29.6 16.7 45.4 1.5 27.1 26.5 32.2 2.8

48.3 4.3 30.6 17.7 46.7 2.8 27.4 26.5 33.5 4

51.1 5.8 32.5 18.7 48.4 3.7 28.3 26.8 34.8 3.7

56 9.5 35.6 20.4 51.6 6.7 29.9 27.6 36.2 4.1

61 8.9 39.1 21.8 54.6 5.8 31.5 28.2 37.6 4.1

65.5 7.4 42.2 23.2 57.1 4.5 32.9 28.7 39.1 3.8

69.9 6.7 44.7 25.2 59.5 4.2 34.1 29 40.3 3.3

74.6 6.7 47.6 27 62.4 5 35.4 29.6 41.9 3.8

79.8 6.9 51 28.8 65.9 5.5 36.8 30.4 43.3 3.5

85.3 7 54.6 30.7 69.4 5.4 38.4 31.3 44.9 3.6

929.2 2.3 42.2 -5 887 2.7 61.4 8 173.4 1 40 107.4 25.9 25.1 2.3 57.4 4.8 156.9 0.7 93.6 4.7 169.9 3 45.7 0.7 11.1 7 92.6 2.6

978.8 5.3 43.2 2.3 935.7 5.5 69.6 13.4 181.7 4.8 42 113.5 26.2 25.8 2.8 59.5 3.7 168.2 7.2 97.4 4 179.4 5.6 47.5 4 11.2 1.2 95.4 3

1035.9 5.8 44.3 2.7 991.6 6 79.8 14.7 192.8 6.1 44.7 120.1 28 26.7 3.6 63.7 7.1 182.4 8.4 102.2 5 183.6 2.4 49.9 4.9 11.8 5.2 98.7 3.5

1077.1 4 43.6 -1.7 1033.5 4.2 86.9 8.9 198.4 2.9 46.3 122.4 29.7 28 4.7 66.3 4.1 191.7 5.1 107 4.7 188.2 2.5 52.5 5.3 11.4 -3.6 103.1 4.4

1104.7 2.6 43.9 0.8 1060.7 2.6 87.3 0.4 203.2 2.4 46.6 126 30.6 27.9 -0.2 66.5 0.2 197.6 3.1 110.6 3.3 194.6 3.4 54.4 3.6 11.3 -1.3 107.3 4.1

1133.1 2.6 43.3 -1.5 1089.8 2.7 86.9 -0.5 208.2 2.4 47.7 128.3 31.5 27.8 -0.2 67.4 1.5 206.7 4.6 115.1 4.1 200.5 3 55.7 2.3 11.3 0.4 110.2 2.7

1173.3 3.6 42.9 -0.8 1130.4 3.7 89.1 2.6 214.5 3.1 49.2 132.6 32.8 28.2 1.1 69.8 3.5 224.6 8.6 119.4 3.8 204.9 2.2 56.3 1 11.5 1.4 112.2 1.8

1211.9 3.3 43.4 1.1 1168.5 3.4 93.3 4.7 219.5 2.3 51 134.7 34.3 28.6 1.6 72.2 3.4 241.4 7.5 122.2 2.4 208.1 1.6 57 1.2 11.9 4.2 114.3 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

878.3 4.6 51.9 0.3 826.4 4.9 53.5 6.8 172.5 4.4 37.2 106.1 29.1 24.8 7.6 53.3 5.1 134.9 8.2 83.4 0.6 176.8 5.3 38.1 4.7 9.6 0.8 79.5 2.9

911.5 3.8 51 -1.6 860.4 4.1 55.6 3.9 179.7 4.2 40.6 109.6 29.5 25.5 2.8 54.4 2.1 151.2 12.1 85.5 2.5 177 0.1 39.7 4.2 10.2 6.6 81.6 2.7

915.9 0.5 48.1 -5.7 867.8 0.9 55.7 0.2 178.2 -0.8 41.9 106.7 29.6 25 -1.9 54.2 -0.4 159.1 5.2 87 1.7 170.6 -3.6 42.4 7 10.3 0.7 85.3 4.5

908.2 -0.8 44.4 -7.7 863.8 -0.5 56.8 2 171.6 -3.7 39.6 104.8 27.3 24.5 -1.9 54.7 1 155.8 -2.1 89.4 2.7 165 -3.3 45.4 6.9 10.4 1.1 90.2 5.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

53943.6 56377.6 57865.3 1614.7 1663 1712.9 2.7 3 3 921.7 895.2 910.2 4.2 -2.9 1.7 2.8 3.1 4.2 29028 26462 24343 17309 16078 17524 11719 10383 6818

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

58834 62235.3 66609.1 72545.3 76716.3 1760.4 1809 1870.6 1937 1992 2.8 2.8 3.4 3.6 2.8 918 937.5 970.5 1012.3 1056.4 0.9 2.1 3.5 4.3 4.4 5.6 5.1 4.4 3.6 3.1 25493 28075 32965 34398 30597 17843 22679 26701 27336 24723 7651 5396 6265 7063 5874

79648 82321.1 2050.2 2109.3 2.9 2.9 1090.4 1125.9 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.9 19238 14239 13810 10015 5428 4224

86272 90439.9 2165.1 2220.5 2.6 2.6 1157.6 1186.8 2.8 2.5 3.9 3.8 19123 22884 14166 17834 4957 5050

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast,” this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base, and government contractors such as Harris Corporation.

Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise-ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville metropolitan area is expected to show robust growth in average annual wage rate. The projected average annual wage in this area is expected to be one of the highest in the state, and the projected annual wage rate growth is predicted to achieve a level of average annual growth of 3.8%, one of the highest in the state.

The fastest growing industries in the Palm Bay– Melbourne–Titusville region reflect that of the industry growth throughout the state. The fastest growing industries are the education and health services and professional and business services sectors, which are both expected to achieve average annual growth rates of 2.6%.

Quick Facts: • Population estimate of 534,359 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 261,914 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.2%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,361 unemployed people. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • United Space Alliance, LLC - 6,500 employees • Harris Corporation - 6,500 employees • Health First - 6,100 employees • Space Gateway Support - 3,000 employees • Wuesthoff Health System - 2,500 employees • Northrop Grumman Corporation - 2,000 employees • The Boeing Company - 1,800 employees • Sea Ray Boats, Inc. - 1,293 employees • MC Assembly - 1,160 employees • Rockwell Collins, Inc. - 1,120 employees Source: Brevard Economic Development Council

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s $2.3 million later, avenue “beautiful” • Beautification of downtown Melbourne’s New Haven Avenue has recently been completed at a cost of $2.3 million.

• The project covered the streetscaping of 11 blocks of New Haven Avenue between US-1 and Strawbridge Avenue, a project that included brick pavers for pedestrian traffic and an archway at the entrance of historic downtown Melbourne.

Source: Florida Today, Nov. 7, 2007 Palm Bay OKs increase • Palm Bay recently voted to raise the property tax rate to $4.7429 as part of a $141.7 million budget, amidst objections from some of the city’s residents.

• The city council announced that the primary reason for increasing and not lowering property taxes was due to declines in property assessments by $570 million or 9 percent, the largest the city has experienced.

Source: Florida Today, Sept. 11, 2007 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

City braces for downturn • The city of Titusville and areas of northern Brevard County are bracing themselves for a potential downturn of the local economy over the next few years.

• The main cause of the likely dip in the economy will come with the paring down of the space shuttle program by NASA, which provided 10,000 jobs and $600 million in annual payroll, much of it going to the economy of Titusville and northern Brevard County.

• The future stability of the area’s economy is in question due to the fact that the shuttle program has fueled much of the local economy, which lacks a solid base in another industry on which to fall back.

Source: Florida Today, Nov.12, 2007 Brevard tops in high-tech job growth • A recent study released by the American Electronics Association makes clear the strength of the growing high-tech industry in Brevard County.

• Among the study’s findings, Brevard County ranks first in the state in high-tech job growth, adding 2,400 jobs during the period 2000-2005, as well as tops in high-tech wages.

Source: Florida Today, Sept. 25, 2007 Tanker War • Northrop Grumman has ambitious plans for the future of its Melbourne branch, which increases the impact that the industry giant already has on the local and statewide economy.

• The Los Angeles-based company increased sales at its Melbourne operation from $500 million to $1 billion and added 300-500 jobs to its current workforce in the area of 1,700.

Source: Florida Today, Oct. 14, 2007

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

1.0

(percent)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

19000.0 18000.0 17000.0 16000.0 15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Payroll Employment 240.0 230.0 220.0 210.0 200.0 190.0 180.0 170.0

(Thousands)

2.0

2.5

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

1.5

(Millions 2000 $)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Palm Bay Payroll Employment

0.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

19.1 6 9.6 9.5 16.2 3.9 35.2 29.9 43.9 4.4

19.4 6.7 9.7 9.7 16.4 3.5 35.7 30.1 44.3 4.1

19.7 6.1 9.9 9.9 16.6 3.5 36.1 30.3 44.7 4.1

20 6.1 10 10 16.8 4.4 36.5 30.6 45.1 3.7

20.3 6.4 10.1 10.2 17 4.7 36.9 30.8 45.5 3.6

20.6 6.1 10.3 10.4 17.2 5 37.3 31.1 45.8 3.5

20.9 6.1 10.4 10.5 17.4 4.8 37.7 31.3 46.2 3.5

21.2 6.2 10.6 10.7 17.6 4.8 38.1 31.5 46.6 3.4

21.6 6.3 10.7 10.9 17.8 4.8 38.6 31.8 47 3.5

21.9 6.5 10.9 11.1 18 4.9 39 32.1 47.5 3.6

22.3 6.6 11 11.3 18.2 5 39.5 32.3 47.9 3.7

22.6 6.4 11.2 11.5 18.4 4.9 39.9 32.5 48.3 3.7

23 6.5 11.3 11.7 18.7 5 40.3 32.8 48.8 3.7

23.4 6.5 11.5 11.9 18.9 4.9 40.8 33 49.2 3.6

219.4 1.7 22.9 -2.7 196.5 2.2 16.6 -0.9 38.4 2.5 5.8 28.8 3.6 2.9 1.3 8.7 0.8 39.6 2.3 29.9 4 22.4 3.6 8.4 0.7 6.2 0.9 23.3 1.9

220.6 1.8 22.8 -2 197.8 2.2 16.6 -0.9 38.7 2.7 5.8 29.1 3.6 3 2.2 8.8 2.1 40 2.8 30.1 3.6 22.6 2.6 8.4 0.3 6.2 1 23.4 1.9

221.9 2.1 22.8 -1.5 199.1 2.5 16.7 0.3 39 2.7 5.9 29.3 3.7 3 2.1 8.9 2.9 40.5 3.8 30.3 3.7 22.7 2.6 8.4 -0.2 6.2 -0.2 23.5 1.7

223.3 2.3 22.9 -0.8 200.5 2.7 16.7 1.1 39.3 3 5.9 29.6 3.7 3 1.9 8.9 2.8 41.1 4.5 30.6 3.5 22.8 2 8.4 -0.5 6.2 0.3 23.6 1.6

224.4 2.3 22.9 0 201.5 2.6 16.8 1.2 39.5 2.9 6 29.7 3.7 3 1.6 9 2.7 41.5 4.7 30.7 2.9 22.8 1.6 8.4 -0.5 6.3 0.9 23.6 1.4

225.6 2.3 22.9 0.6 202.6 2.5 16.9 1.3 39.7 2.6 6 29.8 3.8 3 1.6 9.1 3 41.9 4.8 30.9 2.6 22.8 0.9 8.4 -0.3 6.4 2.3 23.7 1.4

226.9 2.2 23 0.9 203.9 2.4 17 1.6 39.8 2.2 6.1 29.8 3.8 3 1.8 9.1 3 42.2 4.2 31 2.3 22.8 0.4 8.4 -0.1 6.7 8.1 23.8 1.4

227.6 1.9 23.1 0.9 204.5 2 17.1 2.6 40 1.8 6.1 30 3.8 3 1.8 9.2 3 42.8 4.2 31.2 2 22.9 0.6 8.4 0 6 -3.6 23.9 1.5

229.3 2.2 23.1 1.1 206.1 2.3 17.3 3.3 40.1 1.5 6.2 30 3.9 3 1.7 9.2 2.9 43.4 4.5 31.3 1.9 23 1.1 8.4 0.1 6.3 0.8 24 1.6

230.5 2.2 23.2 1.2 207.3 2.3 17.5 3.8 40.2 1.3 6.2 30 3.9 3 1.6 9.3 2.7 43.8 4.5 31.4 1.8 23.1 1.3 8.4 0.2 6.3 -0.1 24.1 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

215.7 -0.3 23.5 -3.9 192.2 0.2 16.7 -6.4 37.4 0.3 5.6 28.4 3.5 2.9 -3.7 8.7 2 38.7 -0.4 28.7 1.6 21.6 2.1 8.4 4.7 6.1 -0.3 22.9 0.9

216.7 0.3 23.3 -4.2 193.4 0.9 16.8 -4.5 37.7 0.7 5.6 28.4 3.5 2.9 -1.5 8.6 2.3 38.9 0.8 29 1.5 22 4 8.4 2.6 6.2 -0.3 23 1.1

217.4 0.2 23.2 -3.7 194.2 0.7 16.7 -3.3 37.9 0.7 5.7 28.6 3.6 2.9 -2.3 8.6 -0.8 39 1.7 29.2 0.8 22.2 2.5 8.4 3.6 6.2 0.3 23.1 0.1

218.3 0.6 23 -3.8 195.3 1.2 16.5 -2.3 38.1 0.8 5.7 28.6 3.6 2.9 -1.8 8.7 -1.8 39.3 2.2 29.6 2.1 22.3 4.1 8.4 1.1 6.2 0.1 23.2 0.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

17026.7 17123.4 17169.2 17262.2 17396.2 17542.6 17704.6 17866.2 542.6 544.4 546.3 548.4 550.5 552.8 555 557.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 264.9 265.2 266.7 268.3 269.8 271.3 272.7 274 1.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.2 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 3187 3029 2711 2757 3090 3414 3806 4135 2346 2476 2207 2414 2643 2882 3226 3488 841 553 504 342 447 532 579 647

*Quarterly at an annual rate

72

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

18015 18174.4 18336.1 18469.2 18673.7 18841.6 559.7 562.1 564.6 567.2 569.9 572.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 275.4 276.8 278.1 279.5 280.9 282.3 2.1 2 2 2 2 2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4420 4696 4905 5079 5267 5469 3742 4010 4229 4398 4573 4788 678 685 676 681 694 681

P a l m B a y – M e l b o u r n e – Ti t u s v i l l e

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

11.6 4.2 5.8 5.8 11.9 2.5 24.6 25.2 30.7 2.4

12.9 10.8 6.4 6.5 12.9 8.1 26.9 26.9 32.9 6.9

13.3 3.6 6.7 6.6 13.1 1.5 27.3 26.8 34.1 3.7

13.9 3.9 6.9 7 13.4 2.5 27.9 26.9 35.2 3.4

14.6 5.3 7.4 7.2 13.8 3.2 28.8 27.3 36.9 4.7

15.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 14.6 5.4 30.4 28 38.8 5.1

16.8 6.5 8.7 8.1 15.1 3.5 31.8 28.5 40.3 3.8

17.9 6.4 9.2 8.7 15.6 3.5 33.4 29.1 41.9 4

19 6.2 9.6 9.4 16.2 3.6 35.1 29.8 43.6 4.2

20.2 6.2 10.1 10.1 16.9 4.4 36.7 30.7 45.3 3.7

21.4 6.3 10.6 10.8 17.7 4.8 38.4 31.7 46.8 3.5

22.8 6.5 11.2 11.6 18.6 4.9 40.1 32.7 48.6 3.7

196.6 2.1 22.8 -0.5 173.8 2.5 13 2.3 34.2 -1.6 4.6 26.3 3.3 2.8 0 7.3 0.7 34.7 4.1 26.7 5.7 18.9 1.8 8.2 8.4 5.7 1.2 22.1 2.6

205.3 4.4 23.6 3.8 181.7 4.5 14.8 13.6 35.5 3.7 4.7 27.2 3.6 2.8 -0.9 7.8 5.8 37.1 6.8 26.8 0.3 19.8 4.7 8.4 1.6 5.9 3.9 22.9 3.3

212.5 3.5 23.9 1.2 188.5 3.8 17.2 16.2 37.1 4.5 5.2 28 3.8 2.9 5.9 8.4 7.8 38.7 4.5 27.3 1.8 20.5 3.5 8.1 -2.8 6.1 1.8 22.2 -2.8

216.6 2 24.5 2.2 192.2 1.9 18.1 4.9 37.4 1 5.5 28.4 3.5 3 3.2 8.5 1.9 38.9 0.6 28.2 3.4 21.1 3.1 8.1 -1.1 6.2 1.6 22.6 1.7

216.6 0 23.7 -3.1 192.9 0.4 16.9 -6.3 37.7 0.6 5.6 28.6 3.5 2.9 -2.8 8.7 1.9 38.6 -0.9 28.9 2.5 21.7 2.6 8.3 3.3 6.2 0 23 1.8

218.9 1.1 23 -3.1 195.9 1.6 16.6 -1.9 38.3 1.7 5.8 28.8 3.6 2.9 -0.2 8.7 0.1 39.5 2.2 29.7 2.6 22.4 3.2 8.4 1.4 6.2 0.6 23.3 1.1

223.8 2.2 22.9 -0.4 200.9 2.6 16.8 1 39.4 2.8 6 29.6 3.7 3 1.8 9 2.8 41.2 4.5 30.6 3.2 22.8 1.8 8.4 -0.4 6.2 0.8 23.6 1.5

228.6 2.1 23.1 1 205.4 2.2 17.2 2.8 40 1.7 6.2 29.9 3.8 3 1.7 9.2 2.9 43.1 4.4 31.2 2 23 0.8 8.4 0 6.3 1.3 24 1.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

185 1.3 25.7 -3.5 159.3 2.1 11.5 3.6 33.5 4.4 5 25.4 3.1 2.8 -6 6.6 2.7 31.6 0.3 22.8 2.8 18.2 2.2 7.4 1.2 5.5 -1.5 19.4 1.8

191.5 3.5 24.8 -3.5 166.7 4.6 12.5 8.5 34.1 1.6 5 26.2 2.8 3.1 8.5 6.7 1.7 34.6 9.8 23.9 4.9 18.1 -0.3 7.7 3.7 5.7 3.9 20.3 4.4

193.3 0.9 23.8 -4 169.5 1.7 13.2 5.1 34.8 2.1 5 26.8 3 3.1 1.2 7.1 5.8 34.1 -1.5 24.4 2.1 18.6 2.4 7.5 -2 5.8 1.1 21 3.4

192.5 -0.4 22.9 -3.9 169.6 0.1 12.7 -3.1 34.8 -0.1 4.8 26.6 3.3 2.8 -10.8 7.3 3.4 33.4 -2.2 25.3 3.5 18.6 0.1 7.6 1 5.7 -1.8 21.6 2.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

12294.6 12751.4 13084.7 13410.5 14084.9 15028.9 473 479.1 487.5 496.6 506.7 519.2 1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2 2.5 215.4 232 235.7 238.2 242.9 249.4 0.8 7.7 1.6 1.1 2 2.7 4.1 3.6 4.4 5.7 5.2 4.4 4647 4405 5120 6683 6228 8385 3550 3553 4525 5196 5672 6438 1097 852 595 1488 556 1948

16068 16712.9 16998.2 17342.5 17940.1 18580.1 529 535.2 541.8 549.5 558.5 568.6 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 255.1 261.4 264.3 269 274.7 280.2 2.2 2.5 1.1 1.8 2.1 2 3.7 3.3 4.1 4.8 4.9 4.9 8612 5386 3197 2993 4264 5180 7322 4437 2669 2537 3617 4497 1289 949 528 456 647 683

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

P r o fi l e s

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of the state bordering Alabama, this region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

While growth in personal income in the Pensacola– Ferry Pass–Brent metropolitan area is expected to be below that of the statewide average, the area is seeing very positive gains in average annual wage rate growth, which is expected to achieve a moderate level of average annual growth of 3.6%. This will help to boost average annual wage levels which are expected to be at a modest 38.8.

The area’s industry growth is expected to be concentrated among three key developing sectors— professional and business services, education and health services, and financial services at expected annual growth rates of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.2%, respectively.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 439,987 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Escambia County population estimate of 295,426 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 144,561 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 206,600 in December 2006 for the MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3.0%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,209 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Local Government - 15,790 employees • Federal Government - 7,403 employees • State Government - 5,970 employees • Sacred Heart Health System - 3,500 employees • Baptist Health Care - 3,470 employees • University of West Florida - 2,267 employees • Solutia, Inc. - 1,800 employees • Lakeview -1,500 employees • Gulf Power Company - 1,400 employees • West Florida Hospital - 1,200 employees Source: Greater Pensacola Chamber of Commerce 74

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Embassy Suites to build $50-million beach hotel • Pensacola Beach is getting a new $50-million Embassy Suites hotel. Construction is expected to begin July 2008.

• The hotel will contain 190 suites, a ballroom, conference rooms, and a restaurant, along with 16 top-floor penthouse condominiums.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, Sept. 22, 2007 UWF capital campaign marks growing community presence • The University of West Florida is in the process of raising $35 million in capital, the largest in its history.

• The campaign is scheduled to end in 2010, and the university has already raised 60 percent of its goal.

• UWF has over 58,000 graduates across the U.S., which combined with how much capital it has already raised, is a strong measure of the school’s community presence.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, Sept. 27, 2007

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Bases awarded for energy conservation • Training Squadron Four and Whiting Field Naval Air Station both won the 2007 Secretary of the Navy award for annual savings of nearly $1.7 million in energy and water management and conservation.

• Reduced resource use and reduced flying hours added to the savings.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, Nov. 5, 2007 Deal could bring new jobs • Pensacola and Escambia have partnered up to create a new technology park that could bring more than 1,000 high-paying jobs to the area.

• The Pensacola Bay Area of Commerce estimates that the park could have a $500-million impact on the local economy.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, Nov. 8, 2007 Old Bayou Chico shipyard to become Gulfview Marina • Located in southwestern Pensacola, the Bayou Chico industrial waterway will be getting a $40million redevelopment.

• Its final product, the Gulfview Marina, will be a dry storage facility for up to 1,000 boats.

• The developers conducted a study that found that 95 percent of Panhandle marinas are full, so this redevelopment aims to alleviate the problem.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, Nov. 10, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.6

76

1.2

1.5

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product 16000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

15000.0 14000.0 13000.0 12000.0 11000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

10000.0

Pensacola Payroll Employment 185.0 180.0 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0 155.0 150.0 145.0

0.9

(Thousands)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income 7.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Pensacola Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

1.0%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 6.2 6.9 7.2 12 4.1 31.9 27.1 37.2 4.5

14.4 6.7 7 7.4 12.1 3.5 32.3 27.2 37.5 4

14.5 6.2 7.1 7.5 12.2 3.6 32.7 27.5 37.8 3.9

14.7 6 7.1 7.6 12.4 4.3 33 27.7 38.1 3.4

14.9 5.7 7.2 7.7 12.5 4.1 33.4 27.9 38.4 3.2

15.1 5.4 7.3 7.8 12.6 4.3 33.7 28.1 38.7 3.1

15.3 5.3 7.4 7.9 12.7 4.1 34 28.3 39 3.1

15.5 5.4 7.5 8.1 12.9 4 34.4 28.5 39.2 3

15.8 5.6 7.6 8.2 13 4.1 34.8 28.7 39.6 3.1

16 5.7 7.7 8.3 13.1 4.1 35.2 28.9 39.9 3.2

16.2 5.8 7.8 8.5 13.3 4.3 35.6 29.1 40.3 3.3

16.4 5.6 7.8 8.6 13.4 4.1 35.9 29.3 40.5 3.3

16.7 5.7 7.9 8.7 13.5 4.2 36.3 29.5 40.9 3.3

16.9 5.7 8 8.9 13.7 4.2 36.7 29.7 41.2 3.2

176.3 1.7 7.1 -2.1 169.2 1.9 14.6 -0.3 32.9 1.9 6.4 22.1 4.3 3.7 2.2 9.1 0.6 23.9 2.3 28.7 3.4 18.5 3.2 8 0.5 6.4 0.4 23.5 1.1

177.1 1.6 7.1 -3.1 170 1.8 14.6 -1 33.1 2.1 6.4 22.3 4.3 3.7 2 9.1 1.8 24.1 2.9 28.8 3 18.6 2.2 7.9 0.1 6.4 0.4 23.6 1.2

177.9 1.8 7 -2.9 170.9 2 14.7 0 33.3 2.1 6.5 22.4 4.3 3.7 1.7 9.2 2.6 24.4 3.9 29 3.2 18.7 1.8 7.9 -0.3 6.4 -0.4 23.6 1

178.8 1.9 7 -2.1 171.8 2 14.6 0.5 33.5 2.4 6.5 22.6 4.4 3.7 1.5 9.3 2.4 24.7 4.4 29.2 2.9 18.7 1.3 7.9 -0.5 6.4 -0.1 23.7 1

179.5 1.8 7 -1.3 172.5 1.9 14.6 0.6 33.6 2.4 6.6 22.6 4.4 3.8 1.3 9.3 2.3 25 4.6 29.4 2.3 18.7 1.1 7.9 -0.6 6.4 0.3 23.7 0.9

180.2 1.8 7 -0.6 173.2 1.9 14.7 0.6 33.8 2.1 6.6 22.7 4.5 3.8 1.4 9.4 2.6 25.2 4.7 29.4 2 18.7 0.6 7.9 -0.4 6.5 1.4 23.8 0.9

181.1 1.8 7 -0.1 174 1.8 14.8 0.9 33.8 1.7 6.7 22.7 4.5 3.8 1.7 9.4 2.6 25.4 4.2 29.6 1.7 18.7 0.2 7.9 -0.2 6.7 5.9 23.9 0.9

181.3 1.4 7 0 174.2 1.4 14.9 1.9 33.9 1.3 6.7 22.7 4.5 3.8 1.6 9.5 2.6 25.8 4.2 29.7 1.5 18.8 0.3 7.9 -0.1 6.1 -5.1 23.9 1

182.4 1.6 7 0.2 175.4 1.7 15 2.6 34 1.1 6.7 22.7 4.6 3.8 1.4 9.5 2.4 26.1 4.5 29.7 1.3 18.8 0.7 7.9 0 6.4 -0.4 24 1.1

183.1 1.6 7 0.3 176.1 1.7 15.2 3.1 34.1 0.9 6.8 22.7 4.6 3.8 1.3 9.6 2.3 26.4 4.5 29.8 1.2 18.8 0.8 7.9 0.1 6.4 -0.8 24.1 1.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

173.3 0.6 7.3 -1.3 166.1 0.7 14.6 -5.4 32.2 -0.2 6.3 21.8 4.1 3.6 -3.5 9 3.4 23.4 2.1 27.7 2.5 17.9 1.6 7.9 0.9 6.4 -4.5 23.3 3

174.3 1.1 7.3 0.4 167 1.1 14.8 -1.5 32.4 0.2 6.3 21.9 4.2 3.6 -1.7 9 1.6 23.4 2.4 28 1.9 18.2 2.6 7.9 0.8 6.4 -2.6 23.3 2

174.8 1.2 7.2 -0.8 167.6 1.3 14.7 0.1 32.6 0.9 6.3 22 4.2 3.7 -1.3 9 0.1 23.5 2.2 28.2 1.7 18.3 3.3 7.9 0 6.4 -2.1 23.4 2.3

175.5 1.6 7.2 -0.8 168.4 1.7 14.6 -0.7 32.7 1.2 6.4 22 4.2 3.7 -0.4 9 -0.1 23.7 3.4 28.4 2.5 18.5 3.3 8 -0.1 6.4 -0.6 23.5 1.9

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

14229 14315.3 14345.9 14418.3 14519.8 14627.5 14745.2 14865.4 14973.3 15089.7 15206.7 15293.9 15456.9 15580.3 443.3 444.1 445.1 446.2 447.5 448.7 450 451.3 452.7 454.1 455.7 457.2 458.7 460.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 206.8 207.7 208.6 209.5 210.4 211.2 212 212.7 213.5 214.2 215 215.8 216.5 217.2 1.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.9 4 4 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 2541 2130 1840 1819 1904 1965 2052 2136 2204 2273 2364 2462 2567 2679 2039 1759 1541 1618 1682 1741 1847 1941 2028 2124 2214 2306 2404 2521 502 371 299 201 222 224 204 196 176 149 150 156 163 158

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77

P e n s ac o l a – F e r r y P a s s – B r e n t

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

9.1 3.7 4.6 4.5 9.3 2 22.1 22.7 27.3 3.5

9.7 6.9 4.9 4.8 9.7 4.3 23.4 23.4 28.8 5.6

10.2 4.8 5.1 5.1 10 2.6 24.2 23.7 29.6 2.8

10.5 3.2 5.1 5.4 10.1 1.8 24.7 23.8 29.9 1

10.9 4.1 5.4 5.6 10.3 2.1 25.4 24.1 30.8 3

11.6 6.5 5.7 5.9 10.7 3.7 26.8 24.7 32.5 5.5

12.4 6.3 6.1 6.3 11.1 3.3 28.2 25.3 33.6 3.5

13.2 6.8 6.5 6.7 11.5 3.9 30 26.1 35.4 5.3

14 6.2 6.9 7.2 11.9 3.7 31.7 26.9 37 4.4

14.8 5.8 7.2 7.7 12.4 4.1 33.2 27.8 38.2 3.4

15.7 5.5 7.5 8.1 12.9 4.1 34.6 28.6 39.4 3.1

16.6 5.7 7.9 8.7 13.5 4.2 36.1 29.4 40.7 3.3

158.5 2.5 7.4 1.2 151.1 2.6 10.8 -2.8 29.4 1 5.3 20.8 3.3 4.1 -2 6.8 4.6 20.1 4.6 26.8 6.2 16.6 6.1 7.9 2.6 6.9 -0.5 21.6 0

162.9 2.8 7.3 -1.3 155.6 3 11.7 7.8 30.4 3.2 5.6 21.1 3.7 3.9 -4.5 7.5 9.8 21.6 7.2 26.7 -0.4 17.4 4.7 7.9 0.9 6.7 -2.2 21.8 0.9

168.7 3.6 7.5 3.1 161.1 3.6 13.9 19.4 32.3 6.2 6.2 21.9 4.2 3.8 -4.7 8.2 9.9 23.1 7.1 26 -2.9 17.2 -0.9 7.8 -1.6 6.7 -0.5 22.2 1.9

172.4 2.2 7.4 -2.4 165.1 2.4 15.1 8.9 32.4 0.4 6.1 22 4.2 3.8 1.7 8.7 6.3 23.1 0.2 27 4.1 17.7 2.9 7.8 0.4 6.7 0.1 22.5 1.6

173.3 0.5 7.3 -1.3 166 0.6 14.7 -3.1 32.3 -0.3 6.3 21.8 4.2 3.7 -3.8 9 3.2 23.2 0.1 27.8 2.9 17.9 1 7.9 1.4 6.4 -4.3 23.1 2.6

175.9 1.5 7.1 -1.7 168.8 1.7 14.6 -0.5 32.8 1.5 6.4 22.1 4.3 3.7 0.6 9.1 0.6 23.8 2.7 28.5 2.6 18.5 3 8 0.1 6.4 -0.5 23.5 1.6

179.1 1.8 7 -1.7 172.1 1.9 14.7 0.4 33.5 2.3 6.5 22.6 4.4 3.7 1.5 9.3 2.5 24.8 4.4 29.3 2.6 18.7 1.2 7.9 -0.4 6.4 0.3 23.7 0.9

182 1.6 7 0.1 174.9 1.7 15 2.1 34 1.2 6.7 22.7 4.6 3.8 1.5 9.5 2.5 25.9 4.4 29.7 1.4 18.8 0.5 7.9 0 6.4 -0.1 24 1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

152.7 -0.2 9.4 -5.7 143.4 0.2 11.6 0.1 29.8 0.2 5.3 20.9 3.7 4.3 8 6.6 0.3 17.3 -0.9 23.1 -0.7 14.7 -0.7 7.3 5.5 7.6 -2.1 21.1 0.6

153.3 0.4 8.8 -6.3 144.5 0.8 12.1 4.3 29.6 -0.9 5.2 21 3.4 4.2 -2.2 6.8 4.2 17.8 2.7 23.5 1.7 14 -4.2 7.5 2.3 7.7 0.9 21.3 1.2

155.1 1.2 7.9 -10.1 147.2 1.9 12.8 6.3 29.1 -1.7 5.5 20.2 3.4 3.7 -11.3 6.9 1.2 18.3 2.5 24.2 3 15.7 11.7 7.4 -0.7 7.4 -4.2 21.7 1.9

154.7 -0.3 7.3 -7.1 147.3 0.1 11.1 -13.4 29.1 0.2 5.3 20.5 3.4 4.2 13.6 6.5 -6 19.2 5.4 25.3 4.6 15.7 -0.2 7.7 2.9 6.9 -6.2 21.6 -0.8

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

78

10900.4 11035.8 11336.9 11633.1 12211.4 12742.2 13486.3 13928.5 14167.9 14477.9 14918.4 15384.4 410.5 413.8 419.7 425.2 429.8 434.4 438.2 440.3 443 446.9 452 457.9 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3 181.3 187.5 186.4 187.3 191.9 195.3 199.2 204 206.2 209.9 213.1 216.1 0.9 3.4 -0.6 0.5 2.4 1.8 2 2.4 1.1 1.8 1.5 1.4 3.8 4 4.8 5.3 4.8 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 3068 2545 3113 3207 4504 4784 3819 2797 2756 1882 2166 2518 2837 2486 2997 3021 3616 3703 3338 2366 1930 1646 1985 2361 230 59 116 186 887 1081 481 432 826 236 181 157

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Ta l l a h a s s ee

P r o fi l e s The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

Quick Facts: • Metro population estimate of 336,498 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,654 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Jefferson County population estimate of 14,677 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Leon County population estimate of 245,625 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Wakulla County population estimate of 29,542 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • An MSA civilian labor force of 186,631 in December 2006 (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 2.6%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,770 unemployed people for the entire region.

(Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • State Government (all departments) – 46,200 employees • Local Government (all departments) – 16,100 employees • Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 2,750 employees • Federal Government (all departments) – 1,900 employees • Alltel Florida, Inc. – 1,000 employees

• Tallahassee Leon County Civic Center - 672 employees • Quincy Corp. - 575 employees • Capital Regional Medical Center - 572 employees • Meridian Healthcare Group - 500 employees • Branch Banking & Trust Co. - 403 employees Sources: Florida Regional Economic Database and Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s Moderate growth rates in both personal income and average annual wage will continue to push up these key economic indicators in this region. The average annual growth rates of 6.0% and 3.6%, respectively, in personal income and average annual wage rate will help to boost up levels of per capita personal income, and average annual wages to an expected level of $29.1 and $39.1 thousand, respectively.

The Tallahassee region is expected to see most of its industry growth in the leisure sector at average annual growth rates of 2.8%, followed by trade transportation and utilities at 2.7%, and professional and business services at 2.1%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s DayJet to take flight • In early October, public officials gathered to inaugurate the services DayJet, an on-demand, point-to-point airline. For a cost of $250 membership and $1 to $5 per mile, passengers can fly from Tallahassee on a new six-passenger Eclipse 500 light jet.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

Ta l l a h a s s ee

• The new airline is suspected to revolutionize Tallahassee business travel. Local employees, as well as a pilot training center and maintenance facility, are yet to come.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, Oct. 4, 2007 Dunkin’ Donuts expanding to Tallahassee • Dunkin’ Donuts is moving forward with an aggressive expansion program, tripling the number of franchise locations. The company is now actively seeking to open a minimum of five new restaurants in Tallahassee.

• The campaign of expansion was announced in September. Since then, Dunkin’ Donuts has stated that it is looking for developers with strong organization that can effectively manage multiple restaurants in Tallahassee.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, Nov. 20, 2007 Civic Center ends year with hefty surplus • The Leon County Civic Center Authority ended its 2006-2007 fiscal year with a $614,000 surplus, according to its financial statements released in late October. The Center had $8.52 million in revenue and $7.9 million in expenditures for the fiscal year ending in September.

• The surplus, however, does not include $30,000 owed to the Center by Tallahassee Titans owner David Morris. The fact that the facility is in the black is a sign of efficient management and effective use of resources.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, Oct. 25, 2007 TCC grant promotes construction safety • Tallahassee Community College received a grant from the U.S. Department of Labor in early October to train local employers and employees in the construction industry on how to avoid injury. Of the 55 institutions receiving the funds, TCC was one of seven community colleges to win the $182,489 grant.

80

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

• The goal of the grant, according to the Center for Economic & Workforce Development at TCC, is to reduce accidents by 15 percent within the next year at contracting companies who participate in the program.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, Oct. 26, 2007 Grand opening of new Kohl’s • The new Kohl’s on Apalachee Parkway will be the first department-store chain to open in the Tallahassee market in 15 years. The company plans to open 95 new stores this fall, eight of those locations to be in Florida.

• The new store will employ approximately 150 people, all of whom were hired locally with the exception of the store manager. A second Tallahassee store is currently under construction in Bradfordville and is due to open this coming spring.

• Neighboring businesses are hailing the new department store as an attraction, building the areas marketing capital.

Source: The Tallahassee Democrat, Oct. 27, 2007

Ta l l a h a s s ee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0%

(percent)

1.0

14000.0

2.5

3.0

(Millions 2000 $)

13000.0 12000.0 11000.0 10000.0 9000.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

8000.0

(Thousands)

8.0% 6.0%

170.0

4.0%

160.0

2.0% 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Tallahassee Payroll Employment

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

180.0

150.0

2.0

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 190.0

1.5

0.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 6.4 6.7 4.5 9.6 4.3 33 28 37.2 4

11.4 7.3 6.8 4.6 9.6 4 33.4 28.1 37.5 4.1

11.6 6.8 6.9 4.7 9.8 4.2 33.8 28.4 37.9 4.2

11.8 6.4 7 4.8 9.9 4.7 34.1 28.6 38.2 3.8

11.9 5.9 7.1 4.8 10 4.3 34.4 28.8 38.5 3.7

12.1 5.6 7.2 4.9 10.1 4.5 34.8 29 38.9 3.6

12.2 5.4 7.3 5 10.2 4.2 35.1 29.2 39.2 3.6

12.4 5.5 7.4 5.1 10.3 4.1 35.5 29.4 39.5 3.5

12.6 5.7 7.4 5.1 10.4 4.2 35.9 29.6 39.9 3.5

12.8 5.8 7.5 5.2 10.5 4.3 36.2 29.8 40.3 3.6

13 5.9 7.6 5.3 10.6 4.4 36.6 30 40.7 3.8

13.1 5.8 7.7 5.4 10.7 4.3 37 30.1 41 3.8

13.3 5.8 7.8 5.5 10.8 4.3 37.4 30.4 41.4 3.7

13.5 5.8 7.9 5.6 10.9 4.3 37.7 30.6 41.7 3.6

183.2 1.5 4.3 -1.3 178.9 1.5 9.4 -3.4 28.1 2 3.9 21.5 2.6 3.7 5.5 8.4 -0.1 20 2.8 18.3 3.3 17.6 2.9 9 0.5 1.9 0.6 62.5 0.9

183.9 1.3 4.3 -2.1 179.6 1.4 9.4 -3.4 28.3 1.8 3.9 21.7 2.6 3.7 2.2 8.4 1.2 20.2 3.4 18.4 2.8 17.7 1.9 9 0.3 1.9 0.8 62.6 0.9

184.5 1.4 4.3 -2.4 180.2 1.5 9.4 -1.7 28.4 1.8 3.9 21.8 2.7 3.7 1.7 8.4 2 20.5 4.2 18.5 3 17.8 2 8.9 -0.1 1.9 -1.3 62.7 0.7

185.3 1.4 4.3 -1.7 181 1.5 9.4 -0.9 28.6 2.1 3.9 21.9 2.7 3.7 1.6 8.5 2.1 20.7 4.6 18.6 2.7 17.8 1.4 8.9 -0.4 1.9 -0.2 62.7 0.6

185.8 1.4 4.3 -0.8 181.5 1.4 9.4 -0.3 28.7 2 4 22 2.7 3.7 1.5 8.5 2 21 4.8 18.7 2.1 17.8 1 8.9 -0.5 1.9 1 62.8 0.5

186.3 1.3 4.3 0 182 1.4 9.4 0 28.7 1.7 4 22 2.8 3.7 1.5 8.6 2.2 21.2 4.8 18.7 1.9 17.8 0.3 8.9 -0.2 2 2.9 62.9 0.5

186.9 1.3 4.3 0.7 182.6 1.3 9.5 0.3 28.8 1.2 4 22 2.8 3.8 1.9 8.6 2.2 21.3 4.3 18.8 1.6 17.8 -0.3 8.9 -0.1 2.1 12.1 63 0.5

187.4 1.2 4.3 0.9 183.1 1.2 9.5 1.3 28.8 0.9 4 22 2.8 3.8 1.7 8.7 2.2 21.7 4.4 18.9 1.3 17.8 0 8.9 0 1.9 -1.2 63.1 0.6

188.2 1.3 4.4 1.2 183.8 1.3 9.6 2 28.8 0.6 4 22 2.8 3.8 1.4 8.7 2.1 22 4.7 18.9 1.2 17.8 0.4 8.9 0.1 2 2.2 63.2 0.7

188.7 1.3 4.4 1.3 184.4 1.3 9.7 2.4 28.9 0.4 4.1 21.9 2.9 3.8 1.3 8.7 2 22.2 4.8 18.9 1.1 17.9 0.7 9 0.2 2 0.2 63.3 0.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

180.6 1.8 4.4 0.8 176.2 1.8 9.8 -3.3 27.6 6.3 3.8 21.2 2.5 3.5 -11 8.4 0.8 19.5 -4.5 17.7 2.3 17.1 8.2 8.9 4.3 1.9 0 61.9 1.6

181.5 2.2 4.4 0.3 177.1 2.2 9.8 -2.9 27.8 5.3 3.8 21.4 2.5 3.6 -5.4 8.3 -0.4 19.5 -1.2 17.9 3.2 17.4 9.2 8.9 2.5 1.9 0.3 62.1 1.7

182 2 4.4 -0.5 177.6 2.1 9.6 -2.9 27.9 4.2 3.8 21.4 2.6 3.6 -0.4 8.3 -1.9 19.6 1.3 18 3.3 17.5 6.7 9 1.3 1.9 0 62.3 1.5

182.7 1.9 4.4 -0.6 178.3 1.9 9.5 -3.9 28 3.1 3.8 21.4 2.6 3.7 0 8.3 -1.7 19.8 1.9 18.1 3.3 17.6 4.1 9 0.4 1.9 1.3 62.4 2.2

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

12731 12801.4 12826.4 12890.4 12975.9 13068.1 13168.5 13271.2 13364.6 13462.1 13565.6 13666.9 13778.5 13872.1 341.3 342.3 343.4 344.6 345.9 347.2 348.5 349.8 351.2 352.6 353.9 355.4 356.8 358.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 186.2 186 186.7 187.5 188.2 188.8 189.5 190.1 190.7 191.3 191.9 192.5 193.1 193.7 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 2096 1801 1517 1602 1750 1919 2087 2208 2306 2398 2485 2551 2633 2711 1761 1389 1116 1172 1252 1343 1474 1573 1665 1762 1853 1923 1997 2085 336 412 400 429 499 576 612 635 641 636 632 628 636 626

*Quarterly at an annual rate

82

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

Ta l l a h a s s ee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

7.6 6.1 4.7 2.9 7.7 4.4 23.8 24.4 28.7 3.8

8 5.2 5 3 8 2.7 24.8 24.8 29.8 3.7

8.3 3.7 5.2 3 8.1 1.6 25.6 25.1 31.3 5

8.4 2.1 5.3 3.1 8.1 0.7 26 25.1 32.2 2.9

8.7 3.6 5.5 3.3 8.3 1.6 26.6 25.2 32.8 2.1

9.5 8.8 5.8 3.7 8.8 6 28.7 26.5 34.4 4.8

9.9 4.7 6.1 3.9 8.9 1.7 29.8 26.7 34.9 1.5

10.5 5.6 6.4 4.1 9.2 2.8 31.2 27.2 35.8 2.6

11.2 6.2 6.7 4.5 9.5 3.6 32.7 27.8 37 3.2

11.8 6.1 7 4.8 9.9 4.4 34.3 28.7 38.4 3.8

12.5 5.6 7.4 5.1 10.3 4.2 35.7 29.5 39.7 3.6

13.2 5.9 7.8 5.5 10.8 4.3 37.2 30.3 41.2 3.7

165.7 0.8 4.1 -0.6 161.6 0.8 7.7 7.1 23.5 0.5 3 18.5 2 3.8 -3.8 7.7 3 18.2 -0.1 16.7 1.1 13.6 1.6 7.8 -3.7 2 3 60.6 0.8

168.2 1.5 4.2 2 164 1.5 8.3 8.6 24.6 4.4 3.3 19.1 2.1 4 4.6 7.6 -0.7 18.2 -0.2 16.4 -1.7 14.4 6.1 8 2.8 1.9 -3.3 60.5 -0.1

172.8 2.7 4.2 0.8 168.5 2.8 9.4 12.4 25.4 3.4 3.6 19.3 2.5 4.1 1.9 8 4.8 19.2 5.5 16.8 2.7 15.6 8.3 8 -0.6 1.9 0 60.2 -0.5

176.9 2.4 4.4 3.3 172.5 2.4 10 6.8 26 2.3 3.7 19.8 2.4 3.9 -4.5 8.3 4.1 20.1 5 17.3 2.6 16 2.1 8.4 5.7 1.9 -1.7 60.6 0.8

180 1.7 4.4 0.5 175.6 1.7 9.8 -1.8 27.3 5.1 3.8 21 2.5 3.6 -7.5 8.4 0.8 19.5 -3.3 17.6 2.1 16.9 6.1 8.9 5.5 1.9 0.1 61.6 1.6

182.9 1.7 4.4 -1.1 178.6 1.7 9.5 -3.4 28.1 2.8 3.9 21.5 2.6 3.7 1.8 8.3 -0.6 19.9 2.4 18.2 3.2 17.6 3.9 9 0.6 1.9 0.7 62.4 1.4

185.5 1.4 4.3 -1.2 181.2 1.4 9.4 -0.7 28.6 1.9 3.9 21.9 2.7 3.7 1.6 8.5 2.1 20.8 4.6 18.6 2.4 17.8 1.1 8.9 -0.3 1.9 0.6 62.8 0.6

187.8 1.3 4.3 1 183.5 1.3 9.6 1.5 28.8 0.8 4 22 2.8 3.8 1.6 8.7 2.1 21.8 4.6 18.9 1.3 17.8 0.2 8.9 0 2 3.3 63.2 0.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

162.7 2.5 5 -0.2 157.6 2.6 7.2 1.1 24.9 4 3.6 19.1 2.2 4.6 9.6 6.9 2.1 16.1 8.5 16.1 3.5 12.2 -1.5 7.9 -1.2 1.9 0 59.8 1.6

166.6 2.4 5.1 1.1 161.5 2.4 7.3 1.3 25.4 1.9 3.8 19.5 2.1 4.8 5.8 7 0.9 17.6 9.2 16.8 4.5 12.1 -0.5 8.2 3.9 2 6.5 60.2 0.6

165.9 -0.4 4.4 -13 161.5 0 6.9 -4.9 24.1 -4.9 3.7 18.4 2 4.6 -5.1 6.9 -0.5 18.7 6.4 16.8 -0.2 13 7.2 8.1 -1.1 1.9 -6.5 60.3 0.3

164.4 -0.9 4.1 -6.6 160.2 -0.8 7.2 3.5 23.4 -3.1 3.2 18.1 2.1 4 -13.4 7.4 7.4 18.2 -2.7 16.5 -1.8 13.4 3.2 8.1 -0.2 1.9 2.2 60.1 -0.4

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

10116.2 10423.7 10451.1 10525.2 10951.9 11409.6 12041.4 12421.1 12657.9 12940.2 13316.6 13720.8 317.4 320.9 322.5 324.5 327.7 330.6 333.6 337 340.8 345.3 350.5 356.1 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.6 1 0.9 0.9 1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 172.9 172.5 172.5 172.5 174 174.2 176.6 181.6 185.3 187.8 190.4 192.8 1.9 -0.2 0 0 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 2456 2902 2687 2708 3907 3452 3753 3130 2329 1697 2250 2595 1987 1994 1895 2222 2464 2175 2811 2587 1942 1221 1618 1964 469 908 791 486 1443 1277 942 543 387 476 631 631

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

P r o fi l e s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida, and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Devil Rays also call this region home.

Quick Facts: • MSA population estimate of 2,697,731 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hernando County population estimate of 165,409 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,157,738 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • Pasco County population estimate of 450,171 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Pinellas County population estimate of 924,413 as of July 1, 2006 (U.S. Census Bureau) • A civilian labor force of 1,352,600 in December 2006 for the entire region (Florida Regional Economic Database) • An unemployment rate of 3%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 40,586 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Regional Economic Database) Top Area Employers: • Hillsborough County School District 25,487 employees • Verizon Communications - 14,000 employees • MacDill Air Force Base - 12,000 employees

84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

• University of South Florida - 11,607 employees • Hillsborough County Government -10,886 employees • Tampa International Airport - 7,760 employees • James A. Haley Veterans Hospital - 5,900 employees • St Joseph’s Hospital - 5,242 employees • JP Morgan Chase - 5,237 employees • Verizon Information Technologies - 5,000 employees Source: Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce

Ou t l o o k Summa r ie s The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater area will continue to remain a key area of economic output for the state, as it is projected to trail only Miami in gross metropolitan product. Additionally, the region will experience robust population and employment growth, as well as the highest growth rates of average annual wage rates at expected average annual rates of 3.9%.

This area will see large growth primarily in the professional and business services sector at expected average annual growth rates of 5.8%; however, the education and health services sector is also expected to exhibit healthy growth at average annual rates of 2.7%.

M e t r o New s Summa r ie s Ranking shows education is one of Tampa Bay’s economic strengths • The Regional Economic Scorecard, a ranking by the Tampa Bay Partnership to help investors measure the progress of the region, ranked Tampa as second out of six major cities in education for the fourth scorecard in a row.

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

• Tampa Bay’s other strengths in the ranking include employment and income, while housing and innovation are ranked at the bottom.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Oct. 2, 2007 Light rail proposed to connect airport to business districts • A 3.5 mile light rail transit system has been proposed to connect the Tampa International Airport with the Westshore area.

• The total estimated cost for the project is $235 million.

• This light rail system is the beginning of a 20-year mass transportation plan to alleviate congestion on roads in all of Tampa Bay. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Nov. 1, 2007

Port of Tampa looks at $1-billion price tag for master plan • The Tampa Port Authority has drafted a master plan that has goals to deepen the Port of Tampa’s channel, increase cruise ship capabilities, and increase capacity for bulk shipments, among other goals.

• Total cost estimates range from $1 billion to $1.5 billion for the 20-year plan, which aims to keep the port more competitive as it expands.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Nov. 29, 2007

Tampa Bay Rays propose $450M stadium • A plan for a 35,000-seat, $450 million openair stadium downtown has been created for the Tampa Bay Rays Major League baseball team.

• If the plan is approved, it could debut in 2012.

It would be located at Al Lang Field in St. Petersburg.

Source: The Lakeland Ledger, Nov. 10, 2007 S&P: Price of Tampa homes drop the most • The highest decline in the U.S. in regards to home prices occurred in Tampa, at 11.1 percent over 2006.

• The S&P tracks prices for existing single-family homes for 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas, including Tampa, Miami, Detroit, San Diego, and Dallas.

Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, Nov. 27, 2007

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Natural Resources, Mining, and Construct.

Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Total Government 0.0

0.3

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5%

(percent)

0.6

120000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

110000.0

90000.0 80000.0 70000.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

60000.0

1200.0 1100.0 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Tampa Payroll Employment Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

(Thousands)

1300.0

86

1.5

100000.0

1400.0

1000.0

1.2

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Payroll Employment 1500.0

0.9

7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0%

(percent change year ago)

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Real Personal Income

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2007 Forecast*

2007Q3 2007Q4 2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2 2009Q3 2009Q4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

101.3 6.5 55 46.2 86 4.4 36.6 31.1 41 4.5

102.9 6.9 55.8 47.1 86.7 3.7 37 31.2 41.4 4.1

104.5 6.6 56.6 47.9 87.8 4.1 37.4 31.4 41.8 4.3

106.1 6.6 57.5 48.7 89 4.9 37.8 31.7 42.2 4

107.9 6.5 58.5 49.4 90.2 4.8 38.2 31.9 42.6 3.8

109.6 6.5 59.5 50.1 91.4 5.4 38.6 32.2 43 3.7

111.4 6.6 60.6 50.8 92.5 5.4 39.1 32.4 43.4 3.7

113.2 6.6 61.6 51.6 93.6 5.2 39.5 32.7 43.7 3.6

115 6.6 62.6 52.4 94.8 5.1 40 32.9 44.1 3.6

116.8 6.6 63.7 53.2 96 5 40.4 33.2 44.6 3.8

118.7 6.6 64.7 53.9 97.1 5 40.9 33.5 45.1 3.9

120.6 6.6 65.8 54.8 98.4 5 41.3 33.7 45.4 3.9

122.6 6.6 66.9 55.7 99.6 5.1 41.8 34 45.8 3.8

124.5 6.5 67.9 56.5 100.8 5 42.2 34.2 46.3 3.8

1361.2 2.4 71.2 -2.5 1290 2.7 87.5 -1.9 239.4 1.8 54.1 154.3 30.2 33.4 0.7 106.8 3.2 330.1 5.5 166.1 3.3 125.1 2.1 49.6 0.6 20.7 1.4 131.3 1.4

1372.5 2.8 70.8 -2.3 1301.7 3.1 88.1 -0.7 240.7 2.1 54.3 155.5 30.4 33.3 0.8 107.7 3.6 336.6 6.6 167.1 3.2 126.1 2.2 49.5 0.4 20.8 1.5 131.7 1.2

1384.2 3.3 70.6 -2.3 1313.6 3.6 88.9 1 242 2.1 54.5 156.7 30.6 33.2 0.2 108.5 3.9 343.5 8.1 168.3 3.3 126.8 2.3 49.4 0 20.8 1.4 132.1 1.2

1396.1 3.4 70.6 -1.7 1325.5 3.7 89.1 2 243.5 2.3 54.8 157.8 30.8 33.3 0.2 109.3 3.5 351.1 8.7 169.5 3.1 127 1.7 49.4 -0.3 20.9 1 132.4 1.2

1406.3 3.3 70.6 -0.9 1335.7 3.5 89.4 2.2 244.6 2.2 55.1 158.3 31.1 33.5 0.3 110.2 3.2 358 8.4 170.3 2.5 126.7 1.3 49.4 -0.4 20.9 0.8 132.8 1.2

1415.9 3.2 70.7 -0.2 1345.3 3.3 90 2.1 245.4 2 55.4 158.7 31.3 33.5 0.7 111.1 3.2 363.7 8.1 170.8 2.2 126.8 0.6 49.4 -0.3 21.1 1.4 133.2 1.2

1425.5 3 70.8 0.3 1354.7 3.1 90.9 2.3 245.9 1.6 55.7 158.8 31.5 33.6 1.1 112 3.1 369.1 7.4 171.3 1.8 127 0.1 49.4 -0.2 22.1 5.8 133.6 1.1

1436.8 2.9 70.9 0.5 1365.9 3 91.9 3.2 246.8 1.3 56 159.2 31.7 33.7 1 112.6 3 376.5 7.2 171.8 1.4 127.5 0.4 49.4 0 21.8 4.5 133.9 1.1

1447.6 2.9 71.1 0.7 1376.5 3.1 92.9 3.9 247.7 1.3 56.4 159.4 31.9 33.8 0.9 113.2 2.7 383.6 7.2 172.3 1.2 128 1 49.5 0.2 21.2 1.5 134.3 1.1

1456.6 2.9 71.3 0.9 1385.3 3 94 4.5 248.4 1.2 56.8 159.5 32.2 33.8 0.9 114 2.6 388.4 6.8 172.7 1.1 128.6 1.4 49.7 0.5 21 -0.5 134.7 1.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1329.6 1.2 73.1 -3.8 1256.5 1.6 89.2 -0.1 235.2 0.6 53.2 152.4 29.7 33.1 1.1 103.5 0.7 313 2 160.7 4 122.5 2.2 49.3 3.3 20.4 -2.8 129.5 0.9

1334.8 1.5 72.5 -3.7 1262.3 1.8 88.8 0 235.8 1.2 53.4 152.4 29.8 33.1 0.6 104 1.1 315.6 3.1 161.9 2.9 123.3 2.4 49.3 0.9 20.5 -1.8 130.1 1.1

1340 1.7 72.2 -3.7 1267.8 2 88 -1.4 237 1.1 53.5 152.9 30 33.1 -0.5 104.5 1.1 317.7 4 163 3.7 123.9 2.6 49.4 0.4 20.6 -0.7 130.5 0.9

1349.6 2 71.8 -3.3 1277.8 2.4 87.3 -2 238 1.1 53.6 153.4 30 33.3 -1 105.7 2 323.1 5.1 164.4 3.7 124.9 2.5 49.6 1.1 20.7 -0.1 130.9 1.3

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

102833 103410 103786 104559 105645 106751 107936 109065 110113 111182 112286 113524 114672 115724 2767.5 2781.5 2795.8 2810 2824.1 2838.1 2851.3 2864.4 2877.4 2890.3 2903.3 2917.2 2932.2 2947.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 2 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 2 1360 1367.4 1374.6 1381.8 1388.9 1395.9 1402.8 1409.4 1415.7 1421.8 1427.8 1433.8 1439 1444.3 1.9 1.8 2 2.7 2.1 2.1 2.1 2 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4 11343 11081 9683 9500 10910 12159 13684 15005 16201 17353 18307 19168 20136 21065 8917 8566 7466 7895 8767 9706 11021 12032 13025 14083 15014 15820 16698 17637 2426 2515 2217 1606 2143 2453 2663 2973 3176 3271 3293 3348 3437 3428

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87

Tampa – S t. P e t e r s bu r g – C l ea r wa t e r

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

December 2007 Forecast

Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (00$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (00$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

63.7 5.1 35.4 28.4 65.3 3.4 26.8 27.5 30.9 5.5

68.9 8.1 38.5 30.4 68.9 5.5 28.6 28.6 32.2 4.1

71.7 4.1 40.2 31.5 70.2 2 29.3 28.7 33.7 4.6

74.2 3.4 41.4 32.8 71.6 2 29.8 28.7 34.8 3.5

76.5 3.1 41.9 34.6 72.4 1.1 30.2 28.6 35.1 0.7

82.7 8.1 44.9 37.8 76.3 5.3 31.9 29.4 36 2.7

88 6.4 48.1 39.9 78.9 3.4 33.2 29.7 37.2 3.3

94.3 7.2 51.8 42.5 82.2 4.3 34.9 30.4 39.2 5.5

100.4 6.5 54.6 45.8 85.5 3.9 36.4 31 40.8 4

107 6.6 58 49 89.6 4.8 38 31.8 42.4 4

114.1 6.6 62.1 52 94.2 5.2 39.7 32.8 44 3.7

121.6 6.6 66.3 55.2 99 5 41.6 33.8 45.6 3.8

1183.5 0.6 74 -5.1 1109.5 1 68.2 3.7 218.2 -2.8 48.7 138.8 30.7 34.6 -3.5 93.2 1.5 248.1 4.5 144.8 3.3 109.5 0.4 46.9 -0.1 19.5 2.8 126.7 -0.8

1236.5 4.5 74.6 0.8 1161.9 4.7 75.2 10.4 223.2 2.3 49.2 142.3 31.7 32.9 -4.8 94.8 1.7 278 12.1 149.5 3.2 113.1 3.3 48.2 2.7 19.9 2.2 127.2 0.4

1281.6 3.6 75.3 0.9 1206.3 3.8 84.4 12.2 230.5 3.3 51.1 148 31.4 32.7 -0.6 98.7 4.2 294.6 6 151.9 1.6 117 3.5 48.4 0.5 20.8 4.2 127.2 0

1308 2.1 76.1 1 1232 2.1 89.4 5.9 233.3 1.2 52.1 150.5 30.7 32.9 0.5 102.6 3.9 303.4 3 155 2.1 119.2 1.9 47.3 -2.3 21 1.2 127.9 0.5

1326.2 1.4 73.7 -3.1 1252.6 1.7 89.1 -0.4 235.2 0.8 53 152.3 29.9 33.3 1.3 103.6 1 310.4 2.3 159.6 2.9 122.1 2.5 49.2 4 20.6 -2 129.5 1.3

1355.8 2.2 71.5 -3 1284.3 2.5 87.7 -1.5 238.8 1.5 53.9 154 30.2 33.3 0 106.2 2.5 326.9 5.3 165.2 3.5 125 2.4 49.5 0.6 20.7 0.5 131.1 1.2

1400.6 3.3 70.6 -1.3 1330 3.6 89.3 1.8 243.9 2.1 54.9 157.9 30.9 33.4 0.4 109.8 3.4 354.1 8.3 169.7 2.8 126.8 1.5 49.4 -0.2 20.9 1.2 132.6 1.2

1441.6 2.9 71 0.6 1370.6 3.1 92.4 3.5 247.2 1.4 56.2 159.2 31.8 33.7 1 112.9 2.9 379.4 7.2 172 1.4 127.8 0.7 49.5 0.1 21.5 2.8 134.1 1.1

79840 81482.7 84652.1 89615.5 95438.3 2449.3 2491.7 2535.7 2592.2 2652.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 1210.6 1223 1230.9 1264.4 1295.2 0.9 1 0.6 2.7 2.4 4.3 5.6 5.3 4.5 3.8 22017 24099 27937 27850 33246 16523 18391 20354 22502 28076 5494 5708 7583 5348 5170

99224 2704.7 2 1327.2 2.5 3.3 23179 19848 3331

102138 2760.4 2.1 1355.2 2.1 3.8 12320 9384 2936

105185 2817 2 1385.3 2.2 4.2 10563 8458 2105

109574 2870.9 1.9 1412.4 2 4.2 15561 12540 3021

114052 2924.9 1.9 1436.2 1.7 4.1 19669 16292 3377

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1132.3 2.7 84.9 2.8 1047.4 2.6 60.4 -0.1 228.8 0.6 51.7 141.6 35.5 37.8 9 87.3 6.4 216.8 8.8 136.1 -0.7 102.1 -1 42.9 2.1 18.4 0.9 116.7 0.6

1185.1 4.7 87.5 3 1097.6 4.8 64 5.9 237.4 3.7 54.2 146.5 36.7 39.7 5 90.9 4 236.9 9.3 137 0.7 105.2 3 43.9 2.4 19.1 3.9 123.5 5.9

1182.1 -0.3 82.2 -6 1099.9 0.2 63.8 -0.3 228.7 -3.7 52.9 141.9 33.9 38.9 -2 91.6 0.8 241.2 1.8 137.2 0.1 107.7 2.4 44.4 1.1 18.8 -1.4 127.6 3.3

1176.1 -0.5 78 -5.1 1098.1 -0.2 65.7 3 224.6 -1.8 51.6 140.9 32.1 35.8 -7.9 91.8 0.3 237.5 -1.5 140.2 2.2 109 1.2 47 5.7 19 0.7 127.7 0.1

Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (00$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

88

75087.9 78702.9 2373.9 2409.6 1.4 1.5 1254.9 1200 2.6 -4.4 2.9 3.4 22956 19963 13900 13762 9056 6200

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

I n d u s t r y L o ca t i o n Q u o t ie n t

Explanation and Interpretation

This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy.

There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

C a l cu l a t i o n

An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios.

LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89

Defi n i t i o n s Average Annual Wage – Total annual wage divided by annual average employment

●●

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Sector ■■

Disposable Income – After-tax income

➤➤

Gross Metro Product – Measure of output for a specific metropolitan area

■■

Labor Force – Consists of all persons classified as employed or unemployed Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) – “The general concept of an MSA is one of a large population nucleus, together with adjacent communities, which have a high degree of economic and social integration with that nucleus.

These are defined by the Office of Management and Budget as a standard for Federal agencies in the preparation and publication of statistics relating to metropolitan areas.”

(Bureau of Labor Statistics) Payroll Employment (from the Current Employment Statistics) – “The total number of persons on establishment payrolls employed full or part time who received pay for any part of the pay period, which includes the 12th day of the month. In short, payroll employment numbers are collected from the place of work.”

Per Capita Income – Average obtained by dividing income by population of an area Personal Income – Income received from all sources, including government transfers and business transfer payments, less contributions for government social insurance Real Personal Income – Personal income adjusted for inflation, in 2000 dollars Seasonally Adjusted (SA) – Removes the effects of events that follow a somewhat regular pattern each year.

Adjustments like these allow one to observe the cyclical and other non-seasonal movements in a data series.

Total Employment – Summation of employment from different industry sectors

Example of Sectors: ●●

Manufacturing Sector ■■

Examples include manufacturing metal products, electronic products, vehicles, etc.

●●

Non-manufacturing Sector

●●

Construction Sector ■■

90

Examples include contractors and building construction

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2007

■■

Examples include repair and maintenance services along with other miscellaneous services

Federal Government ■■

●●

Examples include historical sites, museums, and food services

Other Services Sector ■■

●●

Examples include colleges, trade schools, medical care, etc.

Leisure and Hospitality Sector ■■

●●

Examples include engineering services, bookkeeping services, and research

Education and Health Sector ■■

●●

Examples include financial institutions, brokerages, insurance

Professional and Business Sector ■■

●●

Examples include broadcasters, publishers, etc.

Financial Activities Sector ■■

●●

Examples include transportation services, shipping services, utilities, etc.

Information Sector ■■

●●

Examples include car dealerships and retail stores

Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities ➤➤

●●

Examples include food wholesalers, construction wholesalers, etc.

Retail Trade Sector ➤➤

Household Employment – Number of people employed; data collected by place residence Housing Starts – Data based on the breaking of ground for footings or foundations or beginning a new superstructure on top of an existing foundation

Wholesale Trade Sector

Examples include Postal Service and Department of Defense

State and Local Government ■■

Examples include state and local education, transportation, and administration

Unemployment Rate – Number of unemployed people as a percent of the labor force Wages and Salaries – Gross earnings (not including premium pay such as overtime and bonuses) divided by hours worked

Sources and Useful Links: www.bea.gov/bea/glossary/GlossaryIndex.htm www.bea.gov/bea/regional/definitions www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm www.bls.gov/ces/cesseriespub.htm

Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness.

Ph.D., Pennsylvania State University 1996; M.A., Pennsylvania State University 1994; B.S., Allegheny College 1989.

Sea n M . S n ait h , P h . D .

Sean Snaith is Director of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness in the College of Business Administration at the University of Central Florida.

Dr. Snaith received his B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. He has taught at Penn State, the American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. While at the University of North Dakota, he served as the Director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research and as Director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

Snaith also served with International Planning and Research, a Boston area consulting firm, where his work included forecasting, market sizing, economic analyses, and econometric modeling for a variety of clients including IBM, Dell, Compaq, and HewlettPackard.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Snaith is a director of the Association of University Business of Economic Research, a member of the National Association of Business Economics, and the American Economics Association. He is also a member of the Western Blue Chip Economic Forecast Panel, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Survey of Professional Forecasters, Livingston Survey, Bloomberg U.S. Economic Indicator Survey and USA Today’s Quarterly Survey of Top Economists. He is frequently quoted in the media and has published articles on a variety of topics including exchange rate modeling, predicting educational outcomes, the economics of information technology, and telemedicine.

For more information Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 EMAIL: ssnaith@bus.ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu

U n i v e r s it y o f C e n t r al F l o r ida College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 PH 407.823.1453

FAX 407.823.1454

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