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Florida & Metro Forecast 2015-2044

Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

Published June 2015


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ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF B U S I N E S S A D M I N I S T R AT I O N


Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T 2015 - 2044 June 2015 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright Š 2015 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Ashley Miller, Researcher Trevi Sellers, Researcher Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Mariah Coughlin, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness’ judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.


TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary..................................5-12 Florida Forecast Tables................................................. 13-27

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

Florida Forecast Charts................................................ 28-36 Florida News Summaries.................................................... 37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach...............38-45 Gainesville..........................................................................46-53 Jacksonville........................................................................54-61 Lakeland.............................................................................62-69 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach...................... 70-77 Naples-Marco Island...................................................... 78-85 Ocala....................................................................................86-94 Orlando-Kissimmee....................................................... 95-101 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville.............................. 102-109 Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent....................................... 110-117 Tallahassee....................................................................... 118-125 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater......................... 126-133


FLORIDA HIGHLIGHTS

2015-2018 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE JUNE 2015 FLORIDA FORECAST 2015-2044 • Florida’s Great(er) Recession is growing further in the rear-view mirror both temporally and economically. • Cash investors are carbonating the market for distressed residential properties. A shrinking pool of foreclosures and short sales and a rising pool of mom-and-pop investors are bidding up prices in the distressed market. April 2015 year-over-year median sales price appreciation for foreclosures is 16.0%; traditional median sales prices are up 4.8%. Investors’ expected returns are increasingly predicated on future price appreciation – sounds familiar. I guess some objects in that mirror are closer than they appear. • During 2015-2018, it is expected that Florida’s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%, and that payroll job creation will average an annual pace of 2.2%. Both growth rates are stronger than our forecasted pace for the national economy. • Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and outpacing national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 3.1% in 2015, 2.2% in 2016, 2.0% in 2017, and 1.9% in 2018. Payrolls will finally recover to their prerecession highs this summer. • Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from 2015-2018. The faster pace of payroll job creation has invigorated Florida’s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job is putting more Floridians back on the job hunt. • The growing labor force and higher labor force participation rate (59.6% in April 2015) will make the simple arithmetic of lowering the state’s unemployment rate more challenging. The pace of this decline will slow dramatically (and could reverse direction in any given month) as the labor force grows. As a result of this headwind, the unemployment rate should fall to 5.1% in 2016 and stay there until it ticks up to 5.3% in 2018. • The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during 2015-2018 are Construction (7.9%), Professional & Business Services (4.1%), Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.4%), Education & Health Services (2.2%), and Leisure & Hospitality (1.9%). • Housing starts flattened out during 2013 and 2014 at a little over 80,000 in both years. The pace of starts will increase going forward, but probably not fast enough to meet single-family demand in the next several years. Total starts will be over 107,000 in 2015, over 125,000 in 2016, hit 145,300 in 2017, and level off at 152,500 in 2018. Multifamily starts will hold a historically high share of total starts. • Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.2% in 2015; growth will be 3.4% in 2016 and 3.1% in 2017 before easing to 2.8% in 2018. Average growth will be 3.4% during 2015-2018, 0.6 percentage points faster than our forecasted average U.S. GDP growth over the same period. • Over 2015-2018, real personal income growth momentum will be maintained and will average 3.7%, with 4.2% growth in 2015 easing to 3.7% growth in 2018. • Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 4.4% during 2015-2018, bolstered by a strong recovery in labor markets, lower gasoline prices, and rising home values. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F lorida S ummary

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET Cash Investors, Starts Lost Momentum, and Prices Rising More Rapidly (for now) The April 2015 single-family home report released by the Florida Realtors continues to depict a housing market that is improving at a faster pace in 2015. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $20,000 in April 2015, year over year, and now stands at $195,000. This amounts to a year-overyear price appreciation of 11.4% – the fastest rate of year-overyear price appreciation since January 2014. Price appreciation in the townhome/condominium market accelerated to 10.3% as the median sales price increased $14,500 year over year and registered $155,000 in April. Inventories of single-family homes in April are down from a year ago and are now just 4.9 months, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the single-family market increasingly favoring sellers.1 Inventories of condominiums held steady at their level of 6.0 months’ supply back in April of 2014, which according to the Florida Realtors report indicates a balance in the condo market that is tipped in the favor of buyers. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to contract year over year (-32.5%), but foreclosure/REO sales are up versus April 2014 (6.5%), and traditional sales are up 26.0% year over year versus April 2014. Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still rapidly contracting year over year (-52.8 %), but foreclosure/ REO sales are up slightly versus April 2014 (1.2%), while traditional sales were up 13.0% in April 2015 compared to April 2014. As we discuss below, the distressed market is having an impact on overall price appreciation as investors bid up prices for a declining pool of distressed properties. The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 37.2% in April 2015. For condos that figure is much higher, as 65.4% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets’ shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a somewhat diminishing role of investors in Florida’s housing market. The declining, though still high, levels of investor activity in residential real estate around the state continue to drive these high percentages of cash transactions. International buyers and individuals able to liquidate financial assets whose values have

The improvement in the index from the March 2012 base period, a 22.6% increase in the availability of mortgage credit, may overstate the general credit conditions in the mortgage market by not putting that number in a broader historical context. In 2006, at the height of the housing bubble, the index was just under 869. Current levels of the mortgage credit availability, though improved from 2012 index values, are only 14.1% of the 2006 peak levels of the index. Clearly we would not want to return to the reckless lending that fed the housing bubble, but the dramatic swing in mortgage availability may ultimately sap momentum from the housing market recovery, if not redressed in the near future. New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive and burdensome Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are now in effect. Higher capital standards for banks and stringent underwriting standards continue to impact lending, among other factors. Persistent uncertainty regarding the timing of the full enactment of the law, which has not even come close to being completely implemented since its passage nearly five years ago, continues to weigh upon the financial sector, impacting credit flows beyond just mortgages.

1

2 http://www.fha.com/fha_article?id=337

According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers’ market, numbers below a sellers’ market. 6

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

soared in recent years, thanks in no small part to the Federal Reserve’s zero interest rate policy, are helping sustain these levels. Will traditional buyers of homes in Florida be able to fill the vacuum created as investors exit Florida’s residential real estate market? This transition will ultimately determine the path that the housing market will follow in the second half of 2015 and beyond. Since traditional buyers are finance-dependent, mortgage availability will be a critical determinant of how smoothly this transition from investors to traditional individual buyers takes place. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability Index, benchmarked to equal 100 in March 2012, has crept higher in 2015 since sliding at the end of 2014. It currently stands at 122.6 in May, up from 122.0 in April 2015. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Chief Economist, Mike Fratantoni, attributed May’s easing to an increased availability of cash-out refinance loans and greater availability of FHA 203K home improvement loans.2


F lorida S ummary Figure 1 (below) depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales: a less volatile curve smoothing out the seasonality and noise of the housing market monthly data. Sales are continuing on an upward path and the 12-month moving average has now exceeded the peak value during the housing bubble, though the monthly high has yet to be revisited. The fundamental underpinnings of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Job growth in Florida continues to outperform that of the U.S. labor market, and as Baby Boomers wind down or reach the end of their working lives, population growth via the in-migration of retirees to Florida should increase. Given the strength of the economic foundation of the housing market, we expect that the upward trend in sales will continue. Inventories of existing single-family homes for sale have declined from 5.7 months in April of 2014 to just 4.9 months as of April 2015. The pendulum has swung from a buyers’ market to a sellers’ market, and when coupled with the past two years of stalled growth in housing, a shortage in single-family houses should send prices higher. Figure 2 (below) displays median sales prices for singlefamily existing homes. Median sales prices have continued to climb since bottoming out in 2011. The double-digit pace of price increases gave way to single-digit increases in 2014. Over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by $20,000, up 11.4% from a year ago. Low inventories of existing homes for sale and housing starts that have stalled during 2013 and 2014 will continue to support an environment where home prices could rise at an elevated pace. Some may be tempted to call this a bubble, but it is a shortage that will be rectified as the pace of housing starts ramps up over the next several years, with starts expected to increase by more than 40% from 2014 levels by 2017.

Many homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity wealth that they had at the peak of the housing market (median prices are currently $62,800 below the 2006 peak of $257,800), but rising prices have allowed some homeowners to escape after years of being trapped in underwater mortgages. Despite this progress, there is still a high percentage of Floridians underwater in their mortgages. RealtyTrac’s 1st quarter 2015 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report puts that percentage at 23.8% in Florida. In fact, five of the top nine worst markets in the U.S. with the most seriously underwater properties are in Florida. Cash transactions, while declining as a share of closed sales from a year ago, still encompass a high portion of transactions at 37.2% of April 2015 sales. This is down from 43.4% in April 2014. The decline in cash transactions is largely being driven by a drop in distressed property transactions, short sales, and foreclosure/REO sales as a share of total transactions. Table 1 displays a break out for single-family housing transactions by type for the past four years. The decline in the share of distressed sales from 38.7% in 2012 to 23.1% in 2015 is paralleled by a decline in the share of cash transactions from 46.4% to 37.2% over the same period. The number of short sales has declined precipitously as economic conditions have improved and Florida’s job growth continues to outperform the nation. On the other hand, foreclosure sales are on the rise, but not enough to offset the decline in short sales, so the total pool of distressed sales has gotten smaller. This shrinking supply of distressed properties is being bid up in price by a growing pool of cash investors. Earlier in the recovery, large hedge funds and private equity groups such as Blackstone were buying large blocks of distressed properties,

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Florida Florida Single-Family, Existing Homes

Florida Florida

Single-Family, Existing Homes Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000

25,000

Single-Family, Existing Homes $300,000

Realtor Sales Moving Average

$250,000

20,000

$200,000

15,000

$150,000

10,000

$100,000

5,000

$50,000

0

Source: Florida Realtors

Median Sales Price Moving Average

$0

Source: Florida Realtors Institute for Economic Competitiveness

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F lorida S ummary but have since slowed purchases. There has been no shortage of other smaller investors willing to step in and more than fill this void, and as a result, price appreciation has averaged double digits for the past three years, including an outsized 16.0% jump in foreclosure prices this year. The surge in distressed property prices is pushing up overall median prices at a faster rate than the rate at which the median price of traditional sales is rising. Traditional sales had a more modest increase of 4.8% this past year. Institutional money was attracted by the low prices of distressed property coupled with rising rental rates for the homes that were rented out after buying. The yields on rental streams are quite attractive, particularly so given the zero interest rate policy pursued by the Federal Reserve, where yields on corporate Baa bonds are currently sub-5.0%. Those rental yields are declining despite rents continuing to rise, as they cannot keep pace with the rapid climb in the price of distressed properties. The decline in the expected returns from residential real estate diminishes the attractiveness of these assets as higher purchase prices also reduce capital gains anticipated when the houses are sold. In April of 2012, the median house rent list price was $1,245; in April 2015 it had increased to $1,447, according to Zillow. com’s Florida rent index, which includes all homes. Thus the

rental yield on a median-priced house in April 2012 was 10.3% (abstracting from any expenditures to ready the house to be rented), and by 2015 it had declined to 8.9%. Given median household income in Florida, the increase in rental rates over the past three years is unlikely to be repeated and, if prices continue to climb, these yields will continue to decline, further dampening the appetites of many investors, save for those pinning their hopes of continued price appreciation of their purchases. Those types of investors seem hauntingly familiar – well at least they are paying cash for the houses this time around.

OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA 2015-2018 GR O SS STATE P R O D UC T Real Gross State Product (RGSP) growth in Florida is still expected to grow at a faster pace than that which we are forecasting for the U.S. economy over the next four years. Florida’s recession started before the national recession and ended 2.5 years after. Florida’s recession lasted 58 months in total, nearly five full years. That is longer than the combined length of the past five recessions in the United States, which stretches back to 1980.

TABLE 1 Florida Distressed Single Family Property Transactions

Foreclosure/REO Sales

April-12

April-13

April-14

April-15

3,142

3,319

4,521

4,814

5.6%

36.2%

6.5%

$97,000

$104,275

$121,000

10.2%

7.5%

16.0%

3,044

1,477

997

-16.5%

-51.50%

-32.5%

$124,350

$140,000

$150,000

13.00%

12.60%

7.1%

14,185

15,387

19,395

32.00%

8.50%

26.0%

$199,000

$210,000

$220,000

10.60%

5.50%

4.8%

% Change Year Ago Median Sale Price

$88,000

% Change Year Ago Short Sales

3,645

% Change Year Ago Median Sale Price

$110,000

% Change Year Ago Traditional Sales

10,748

% Change Year Ago Median Sale Price

$180,000

% Change Year Ago Distressed Sales as % of Total Sales

38.7%

31.0%

28.0%

23.1%

Cash Sales as % of Total Sales

46.4%

47.9%

43.4%

37.2%

Florida Realtors 8

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary Perhaps we should refer to it as the Greater Recession in Florida? In 2012, Florida finally got back into growth mode, with Real Gross State Product (RGSP) expanding at a 2.2% pace. In 2013, the economy stayed at that pace of growth, as rising consumer confidence, the housing market recovery, population growth, and progress in the labor market were setting the stage for even faster economic growth in the state. These improved fundamentals of the state’s economy will lead to accelerated growth in 2015 and 2016 when RGSP is expected to grow 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively. In 2017 and 2018 growth is going to decelerate slightly as tighter monetary policy puts the brakes on the national economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively. During 2015-2018 Florida’s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.1% annually. This average growth of 3.1% through 2018 might seem small in comparison to the 6.7% growth rate that the state experienced in 2005, but this growth is based more on improvements in the fundamental drivers of the state’s economy and a sustainable fiscal situation in state and local governments. It is also significantly higher than the average of our forecasted growth for the U.S. economy over that time frame (2.5%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the depths to which they plunged during the housing crisis. During the crisis, median home prices fell to a low of $122,200, but now stand at $195,000. This price appreciation is repairing damage done to Floridians’ household balance sheets, but it will take many years to recover all of the wealth that was lost in the housing market collapse, when housing prices plummeted from their median-price high of $257,800. Rising house prices are lifting more mortgage holders in the state above the surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing some financial breathing room. Despite this progress, and as noted above, RealtyTrac estimates that 23.8% of mortgaged homes in Florida have negative equity or, stated another way, the owners owe more in mortgage debt than the market values of their homes. Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues to march toward the $1 trillion mark, and will surpass $973 billion in 2017, an increase of $173 billion from 2013 and a quarter of a trillion dollar increase from 2009. In 2018, Florida will break that $1 trillion mark with NGSP of $1.021 trillion. If the national economic policy and regulatory environment were more of a catalyst instead of becoming an increasing drag, the outlook for Florida’s economy would be even brighter. As it stands, Florida’s robust growth is happening in spite of the sputtering and historically weak national recovery.

P E R SO NAL INC O M E , R E TA I L SAL E S, AND AUTO SAL E S Personal income growth in Florida in 2014 regained lost momentum from 2013 as a number of factors conspired to bring about deceleration of growth that year, including special dividend payments made in 2012 ahead of increased tax rates. The regained momentum is expected to continue through the end of 2018. In 2014 Florida experienced personal income growth of 4.6%. That growth will ease slightly in 2015 as personal income growth comes in at 4.3%. From there it will accelerate to 4.7% in 2016, and then jump to 5.9% in 2017, before easing slightly to 5.8% in 2018. After six years of personal income growth in Florida being slower than the national rate, Florida pulled in front of the nation in 2013 as personal income growth in Florida was 2.4%, while U.S. growth was just 2.0%. Florida is expected to continue to outpace the nation with personal income growth averaging 0.3 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2015 through 2018. Personal income growth during 2015-2018 will average 5.2% in Florida. Personal income will reach in excess of $1 trillion in 2018, with personal income growing in excess of $56 billion during that year. In 2015 real disposable income growth will average 4.3%, up from the previous year’s 2.9% growth rate. Average growth during 2015-2018 will remain a robust 3.7%, with growth peaking in 2015. Financial markets have prospered since the bottom of the financial crisis, due in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s zero interest rate policy that was bolstered by three subsequently larger rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since surged to exceed 18,000. This bull run will come to an end as the Fed implements interest rate hikes, possibly commencing in late 2015. As a result of this record run, financial assets held by U.S. households have values that are $27.3 trillion3 higher than the 2009 nadir of the financial crisis levels, and $16.3 trillion higher than prerecession peaks. Home equity wealth held by American households has also made a strong recovery, but has not fully recovered to peak levels seen during the housing boom. That wealth is only $0.3 trillion lower than those 2005 highs, but home equity wealth has made great progress since the bottom of the housing crisis. U.S. households now hold $6.8 trillion more in home equity wealth than they held at the 2009 1st quarter low point of the housing market. Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly or as completely as financial markets have. But housing prices have 3 Data taken from the March 2015 Flow of Funds report balance sheet tables: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/ z1r-5.pdf

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F lorida S ummary been rising over the past four years, with acceleration in the pace of price appreciation thus far in 2015. For many people in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2018. Many of Florida’s mortgage holders are still underwater, leaving the state with the second-highest percentage of underwater mortgages in the nation. With the labor market in Florida continuing to show an acceleration of job creation, this will help lift both consumer confidence and spending. The significant decline in oil and gasoline prices has further boosted confidence and has served to support retail sales outside of gasoline. With more money staying in consumers’ pockets that previously went into the tank, households are able to increase spending on other goods and services. This windfall for consumers isn’t exactly winning the lottery, but it will enable families, for example, to dine out an extra time or two each month. Retail sales in Florida grew robustly in 2010 and 2011 from pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers as well as visitor spending. After contracting at an average rate of -6.9% in 2008-2009, growth soared to average 6.9% in 2010-2011. In 2012 the pace of growth eased to under 2.7% before bouncing back in 2013, and after a similar deceleration in 2015, retail sales growth will head higher. With Florida’s robust labor market recovery maintaining momentum and more home equity recouped, retail spending will begin to accelerate in 2016 and 2017 with growth averaging 5.1% during those two years. The average year-over-year growth rate of retail sales will be in excess of 4.4% during 2015-2018. When the national recession came to an end, replacement needs and pent-up demand drove light vehicle sales significantly higher. Consumers began to purchase vehicles again and have continued to do so through 2014 and, thus far, in 2015 as well. This sustained growth has been enabled by the availability of easy automobile financing for even sub-prime borrowers - the one type of lending that does not seem to have been as adversely impacted by regulatory changes. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand during 2010-2014, when registrations grew at a yearover-year average rate in excess of 11.8%. This burst followed three years during which registrations contracted at an average rate of nearly 20.0%. The end of pent-up demand purchases means more modest growth in vehicle registration in Florida during 2015-2018, despite increased incentives and plentiful financing. Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average 3.3%. In 2018, Florida’s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than 1.39 million, representing an increase of over 685,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom. However, this much-improved level is still below the 2005 peak level of 10

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

1.45 million registrations during the height of the economic boom, a level that will be attained again in 2022.

E M P LOYM E NT Florida’s labor market recovery outpaced the recovery in the national job market over the past three years. In 2013, yearover-year average annual payroll job growth was 2.5%, a much stronger figure compared to the national rate of job creation of 1.7% for the same year. In 2014, the labor market in Florida accelerated further with job growth of 3.2% compared to the national rate of just 1.9%. Payroll job growth will remain robust at 3.1% in 2015 and will ease to 2.2% in 2016, before easing further to 2.0% in 2017 and 1.4% in 2018. Florida will outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.6 percentage points during 2015-2018. The Construction sector has gone from the worst performing sector for job growth in Florida—at one point contracting for three straight years (2008-2010) at an average rate of -17.2%— to the best performing sector. It will hold this number one position through the end of 2019. This sector was crushed by the housing market’s collapse, suffering job losses for five straight years (2007-2011) at an average annual rate of -12.9%. In 2009 alone, the sector had year-over-year job loss at a staggering rate of -23.1%. Job growth turned positive in 2012 and built momentum from there, hitting 8.5% in 2014. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate from 2014 rates, but will remain robust. Job growth is expected to be 7.9% in 2015, as growth in housing starts dwindles temporarily. The resumption in the growth in housing starts will cause job growth to accelerate to 8.3% in 2016, and 9.7% in 2017, before easing to 6.9% in 2018. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be 8.2%. This high-level employment growth overstates the strength of the recovery in this sector to a degree; given the magnitude of job losses in the wake of the housing crisis, these percent changes are calculated from a depleted base. Employment will average 544,400 in 2018, a level that is 137,700 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak for employment in the construction sector. We are forecasting that it will be 2029 before employment in this sector surpasses those 2006 highs. The Professional & Business Services sector will be the state’s second fastest growing sector on average through 2018. Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.1% during 2015-2018. Job growth in this sector during the past three years averaged 3.9%, but will experience faster growth over the next four years. Job growth will be 3.9% in 2015, before rising to 6.2% in 2016. Growth in this sector eases to 4.5% in 2017 and further to 1.8% in 2018, as overall job growth in the U.S. and Florida decelerates under a tighter stance of monetary policy. This sector includes primarily white-collar businesses—from computer design, to advertising, to scientific research and


F lorida S ummary travel agencies—but also includes the very blue-collar waste management industry. The Professional & Business Services sector recovered lost jobs during the recession very quickly and was the fastest private sector in Florida to get back to prerecession employment levels, which it did in 2014. In 2013 the Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time since 2005 when it experience mild year-over-year job growth of 0.4%. This briefly accelerate to 1.4% in 2014, but is expected to fall back into malaise in 2015 and 2016. Information is a mix of high-tech sectors and legacy media both print and broadcast, traditional and online publication, and software development. This industrial sector is still roiling from changes, as transformations in the gathering and dissemination of information and music continues to blur the historical differences between its subsectors in a post-Napster, post-Netflix world. Sources of growth within this sector, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and creation of content (still necessary despite the drastic changes in how that content is delivered) will help offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media. Tepid annual job growth of 0.4% returned to the Information sector in 2013, following on the heels of seven straight years of job losses. After 1.5% growth in 2014, growth will slip to -0.1% in 2015. From that point, growth resumes, but momentum will seesaw through 2018. Average growth of 0.7% is expected during 2015-2018. The Education & Health Services sector in Florida, inoculated from the recession by an older population structure which, along with the passage Affordable Care Act, has kept demand for health services and employment growing in the sector. The Education & Health Services sector added jobs throughout the recession (average job growth from 2007 to 2011 was 2.1%) and it continues to do so today. This was the only sector of Florida’s economy to grow in the midst of the historical recession that decimated the construction industry, and it is expected to continue to grow through the end of 2018 and well beyond. During 2015-2018, employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 2.2%. The Affordable Care Act’s impact on healthcare in the face of implementation of the law’s employer mandates in 2015 and 2016, the growing concern about the fiscal feasibility of the law, yet another pending Supreme Court case that could strike down subsidies for federally run health care exchanges in 36 states that did not set up their own exchange, and uncertainty regarding federal funding for healthcare all continue to cast a pall of uncertainty over this sector in Florida. Healthcare providers in Florida can only feel their way along, slowly moving through the fog of uncertainty still surrounding the law five years after its passage. Regardless of the law’s ultimate fate in front of the Supreme Court or in the political realm, there will be, in the end, expanded insurance coverage as a result of its passage. The

projected numbers of previously uninsured people who would acquire health insurance as a result of the law have not been as high as the administration had predicted, but the number of insured has increased as a result. This expansion of coverage, coupled with the aging of our already older-than-average population that is continuing to grow with the influx of new retirees on a daily basis, ensures that the demand for health services in Florida should remain strong well into the future. This demand will continue to drive job growth in the Health & Education sector through the end of 2018 and well beyond. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 2.5% in 2014, accelerating from 1.6% growth in 2013. As 2014 wound down, economic growth eased as both the domestic and global economic environments weakened significantly. The weakening of economic expansions abroad, including a slowdown in China and persistent struggles in Europe, were coupled with a rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Exports have suffered from the combination of slower income growth abroad and higher prices of American goods and services for foreigners whose currencies depreciated against our own. These developments will weigh heavily on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector beyond 2014. After gaining some momentum early in 2014, manufacturing employment growth in Florida is expected to steadily lose momentum. We are expecting to see job growth of just 0.6% in manufacturing for 2015, followed by another year of even weaker job growth in 2016, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 0.4%. Manufacturing job creation is expected to continue to remain paltry in 2017 and 2018, when growth will be 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Average annual job growth during 2015-2018 will be just 0.4%. The State & Local Government sector is experiencing improved revenue streams as sales taxes and housing prices and, with lag, property tax revenue all continue to rise. The budgetary crisis delivered by the Greater Recession in Florida impacted governments at all levels in Florida and all were forced to make cuts to employment, whether through largescale layoffs as transpired in Tallahassee or through attrition in smaller municipalities. This economy-compelled austerity led to job losses in this sector that persisted for five years through 2013. In 2014, job losses in the State & Local Government sector ended but growth that year was barely perceptible. Growth will remain positive going forward, averaging 0.9% during 2015-2018. As Florida’s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will continue to grow and increased employment growth in state and local government will be a necessary part of the solution to meet the demands of Florida’s growing economy. State and local governments will remain guarded in the pace of hiring, as budget managers have not forgotten the painful cuts of the notso-distant past. Institute for Economic Competitiveness

11


F lorida S ummary The outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida, on the other hand, continues to be negative through the end of our 2018 forecast horizon (with the exception of 2015). Any solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will require more revenue, but ultimately, cuts in discretionary federal spending will be necessitated as well as entitlement programs, which continue to swell and consume a growing share of revenue. As the Fed eventually embarks on a cycle of interest rate hikes later in 2015 or perhaps 2016, the burden of servicing a national debt that is in excess of $18.25 trillion will consume a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits that has for years been dulled by the Novocain of historically low interest rates will increase along with interest rates. This increasing share of federal tax revenue going toward entitlements and debt service will cause the already relatively smaller portion of federal tax revenue that goes toward discretionary spending to get even smaller. It will be 2020 before the decennial census drives the next expansion in Federal Government employment in Florida. Employment in this sector will contract at an average rate of -0.7% during 2015-2018.

UN EM PLOYM E N T The unemployment rate in Florida has fallen significantly from its peak and stands at 5.6% as of April 2015. After spending many years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida’s April unemployment rate is just 0.2 percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate for April. Earlier in the recovery, the large declines in the unemployment rate in Florida and in the nation were in large part driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate. Florida’s labor force participation rate in April 2015 stood at 59.6%, down slightly from 59.9% a year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in April 2015, down from 62.8% in April 2014. This is the lowest level since February 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the population age 16 and older that is included in the labor force. Retirees, who are older than sixteen but who no longer participate in the labor force, push down the labor force participation rate, and with a relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are retired, the state’s participation rate will consequently be lower than the national rate. The unemployment rate in Florida, 5.6% in April 2015, represents a 5.8 percentage point decline from the peak levels of the unemployment rate in 2010. We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued strength in the growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic growth, however, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the labor force to grow more 12

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

rapidly during 2015-2018, as job seekers who are encouraged by the robust job growth in the state are motivated to reenter the labor force. This will result in slower declines in unemployment rates and the possibility of an occasional increase in the unemployment rate in Florida on a month-to-month basis. The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of 2.3% during 2015-2018. That compares to an average growth rate of just 1.0% during the prior four years. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to continue to hover around the 5.5% level during 2015 before dipping to 5.1% in 2016-2017, and then ticking up in 2018. The low point of the average annual unemployment rate during this expansion will be 1.9 percentage points higher than the unbelievable 3.2% rate that prevailed in the state in 2006. The cycle fundamentals are now driving the labor market, whereas in 2006, the housing bubble drove the unemployment rate down to those record lows. The decline in the unemployment rate over the next two years will take place despite the stiff headwinds of a rapidly growing labor force. Nationally and in Florida, the levels of underemployment— those who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force (those who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months)—remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers—workers who are currently not working but did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly survey of households—to the headline unemployment figure, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS known as U-6. Looking at U-6, we see a labor market still deeply damaged, as U-6 in Florida averaged 12.3% from the 2nd quarter of 2014 through the 1st quarter of 2015, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The national rate of U-6 stood at 11.6% over that same period. While U-6 in Florida is down from its 2014 average reading of 12.8%, the current rate still reflects the depth of the damage done to the labor market by the historic recession in Florida that is not captured by the current headline unemployment rate of 5.6%. As the employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act are finally enforced over the next two years, the potential for rising levels of underemployment in response to the full/part-time distinction in the law will necessitate ongoing scrutiny of U-6 at the national and state level. In particular, the behavior of U-6 relative to that of the headline unemployment rate will provide important information necessary to fully understand the impact of the healthcare law on the labor market.


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

646.9

702.9

731.4

735.7

696.7

Florida (%Ch)

9.1

8.7

4.1

0.6

-5.3

U.S.(%Ch)

5.6

7.4

5.3

3.6

701.1

742.0

753.2

Florida (%Ch)

6.1

5.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.7

4.6

627.8

Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

725.2

767.4

793.0

811.4

848.4

4.1

5.8

3.3

2.4

4.6

-2.8

2.8

6.2

5.2

2.0

3.9

735.3

696.7

713.3

736.9

747.6

755.9

780.0

1.5

-2.4

-5.2

2.4

3.3

1.5

1.1

3.2

2.8

0.6

-2.7

1.2

3.7

3.3

0.8

2.5

663.3

672.2

665.8

643.2

658.8

673.1

679.3

680.1

699.8

4.5

5.7

1.3

-1.0

-3.4

2.5

2.2

0.9

0.1

2.9

1.5

4.0

2.1

1.5

-0.4

1.0

2.5

3.0

-0.2

2.4

699.2

747.5

773.5

753.0

721.7

728.6

736.4

769.0

800.5

838.8

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

10.0

6.9

3.5

-2.6

-4.1

1.0

1.1

4.4

4.1

4.8

772.9

800.3

803.6

769.1

721.7

721.0

718.2

734.3

750.5

772.5

(%Ch)

6.7

3.6

0.4

-4.3

-6.1

-0.1

-0.4

2.2

2.2

2.9

Employment

4.4

3.5

0.9

-2.0

-5.1

0.6

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.7

Labor Force

3.3

3.1

1.8

0.6

-0.9

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.6

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

3.7

3.2

4.1

6.5

10.5

10.9

9.8

8.3

7.0

6.1

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

4.6

4.6

5.8

9.3

9.6

8.9

8.1

7.4

6.2

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

1.7

1.8

1.1

-0.6

-4.3

-0.7

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.9

Florida

4.0

2.6

0.2

-3.6

-6.3

-0.8

1.1

2.0

2.5

3.2

Mining

-0.8

-6.5

1.6

-7.8

-11.5

-0.5

4.0

-0.3

0.5

1.3

Construction

11.3

7.1

-8.7

-17.2

-23.1

-11.4

-4.3

2.1

7.0

8.5

1.2

0.3

-4.2

-7.0

-12.7

-4.5

1.1

1.6

1.6

2.5

-1.8

-2.0

-1.5

-6.2

-10.0

-3.6

0.8

1.1

-0.2

0.7

Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods

2.6

1.4

-5.4

-7.4

-14.0

-5.0

1.3

1.8

2.5

3.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.7

1.4

0.1

-2.1

-6.6

-2.0

3.7

2.2

2.7

2.7

Wholesale Trade

4.0

2.9

1.5

-3.1

-7.9

-2.8

-0.4

1.9

1.0

2.2

Retail Trade

4.1

2.0

0.4

-2.9

-6.6

0.2

2.2

2.4

2.7

3.8

Financial Activities

4.9

3.1

-1.0

-4.6

-7.3

-1.9

1.8

2.7

2.7

2.0

Prof. and Business Services

7.4

4.4

0.7

-6.4

-8.2

1.3

3.0

3.6

4.0

4.3

Edu & Health Services

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.1

1.2

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.7

2.8

Leisure & Hospitality

2.6

1.5

2.0

-1.4

-4.5

0.5

2.8

4.2

4.0

4.7

Information

0.2

-0.9

-0.3

-3.4

-8.5

-4.6

-1.0

-1.6

0.4

1.5

Federal Gov't.

1.5

-0.7

0.2

1.3

2.3

7.2

-5.4

-0.9

-0.6

-0.2

State & Local Gov't.

1.4

2.0

2.4

0.2

-1.5

-1.2

-1.1

-1.4

-0.2

-0.1

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

17875.7 18184.1 18385.1 18540.8 18682.8 18888.3 19138.1 19385.5 19639.6 19929.4

2.3

1.7

1.1

0.8

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.5

Net Migration (thous)

315.0

193.2

117.7

84.2

108.2

182.9

210.1

212.3

240.3

265.1

(%Ch)

-15.0

-40.5

-34.6

-29.1

44.5

83.1

19.8

1.2

13.1

11.5

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

271.4

203.1

101.2

61.3

33.6

37.9

41.3

59.3

80.7

82.7

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

210.6

156.0

75.0

40.6

26.7

31.6

31.7

42.5

54.6

58.1

60.8

47.1

26.2

20.6

6.9

6.4

9.6

16.8

26.0

24.7

4.6

4.1

3.4

1.2

3.1

1.9

1.5

1.9

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

4.3

-0.2

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

13


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

885.0

926.6

981.6

1038.3

1097.8

1159.9

4.3

4.7

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

2021

2022

2023

2024

1218.3

1277.3

1340.1

1404.4

5.0

4.8

4.9

4.8

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

4.1

4.9

5.7

5.1

5.0

5.1

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.6

812.4

837.2

870.2

902.3

936.1

973.7

1005.3

1034.1

1063.7

1093.9

Florida (%Ch)

4.2

3.1

3.9

3.7

3.7

4.0

3.2

2.9

2.9

2.8

U.S.(%Ch)

4.2

3.0

3.5

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

729.8

749.3

778.4

808.2

840.0

871.9

898.2

922.8

947.7

973.7

Florida (%Ch)

4.3

2.7

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.7

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

2.7

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

878.1

925.6

973.5

1021.0

1072.2

1128.7

1182.7

1238.6

1296.6

1354.9

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.7

5.4

5.2

4.9

5.0

5.3

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

797.0

823.9

849.8

873.7

899.5

927.8

952.2

976.8

1001.6

1025.1

(%Ch)

3.2

3.4

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

Employment

2.7

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.1

Labor Force

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.2

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

0.6

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

2.2

1.9

1.4

0.9

1.0

1.2

0.8

0.7

0.6

Florida

3.1

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.3

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.2

0.9

-3.9

-3.7

0.3

0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-1.0

-0.2

-0.1

-1.0

7.9

8.3

9.7

6.9

3.7

3.2

3.0

2.2

2.0

1.6

Mining Construction Manufacturing

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-1.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

Durable Goods

1.5

0.9

0.8

0.3

-0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.5

3.6

3.6

2.7

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.3

0.1

Wholesale Trade

2.9

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.6

1.8

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.5

Retail Trade

3.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.6

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.1

-0.1

Financial Activities

2.4

0.8

-0.4

-0.8

-0.1

0.6

1.0

1.2

1.0

1.0

Prof. and Business Services

3.9

6.2

4.5

1.8

2.5

3.8

3.8

3.4

2.9

2.3

Edu & Health Services

3.4

2.4

1.7

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.3

1.1

1.2

0.9

Leisure & Hospitality

3.8

0.8

1.3

1.7

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.1

0.0

2.6

0.4

0.3

1.7

2.8

2.5

2.0

1.8

Federal Gov't.

1.0

-1.3

-1.2

-1.3

-0.9

6.6

-4.4

0.1

0.2

0.1

State & Local Gov't.

0.5

0.1

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.3

Nondurable Goods

Information

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

20225.3 20531.0 20843.4 21161.9 21483.4 21805.7 22128.6 22452.4 22776.8 23101.8 1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

262.7

263.7

263.6

264.7

265.1

264.8

264.8

265.1

265.2

265.4

(%Ch)

-0.9

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

96.3

125.7

145.3

152.5

158.8

165.4

167.7

170.1

171.4

172.8

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

64.8

84.4

100.5

104.1

105.9

108.2

108.2

109.7

110.6

112.4

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

31.4

41.4

44.8

48.4

52.9

57.2

59.5

60.4

60.8

60.4

0.0

2.0

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.3

Net Migration (thous)

Housing

Consumer Prices 14

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015 (%Ch)

2.5

1.8


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1472.5

1560.6

1640.4

1721.4

1805.5

1892.6

4.9

6.0

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.8

2031

2032

2033

2034

1987.2

2089.0

2194.0

2301.5

5.0

5.1

5.0

4.9

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

1126.7

1156.2

1191.4

1225.7

1260.3

1295.3

1332.6

1372.9

1413.2

1453.0

Florida (%Ch)

3.0

2.6

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

1002.2

1026.2

1058.0

1088.4

1118.3

1147.8

1179.5

1214.4

1249.4

1283.1

Florida (%Ch)

2.9

2.4

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.7

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

1417.6

1482.7

1554.2

1628.0

1706.3

1788.0

1876.2

1969.2

2064.3

2161.2

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.8

4.7

1049.8

1092.4

1121.8

1151.5

1182.9

1215.0

1249.2

1285.0

1320.3

1355.2

(%Ch)

2.4

4.1

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.6

Employment

1.0

-0.1

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

Labor Force

0.9

-0.1

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

0.6

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

Florida

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.2

0.9

-1.5

-1.5

-1.1

-0.8

-0.5

-0.5

0.0

0.2

-0.3

-0.6

1.7

2.2

1.5

1.2

1.3

2.0

2.7

2.1

1.7

1.1

Manufacturing

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

Nondurable Goods

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1

-1.0

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

Durable Goods

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.5

-0.3

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.6

Wholesale Trade

0.3

0.4

0.1

-0.4

-0.3

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.5

Retail Trade

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

Financial Activities

0.8

1.6

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

Prof. and Business Services

2.8

3.1

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.3

3.0

3.6

2.6

2.1

Edu & Health Services

0.9

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.3

1.1

Leisure & Hospitality

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

Information

0.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.9

2.1

Federal Gov't.

0.3

1.3

0.6

0.5

0.5

7.0

-4.2

0.5

0.4

0.5

State & Local Gov't.

1.2

0.0

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

Mining Construction

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

23427.4 23753.7 24081.1 24409.8 24738.2 25066.0 25393.4 25720.2 26046.6 26372.7 1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

265.7

265.4

265.1

264.7

264.4

264.4

264.6

264.4

264.4

264.5

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

171.9

176.4

181.5

180.5

181.9

186.0

185.9

181.7

181.2

181.8

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

111.5

110.9

108.4

103.3

102.8

104.6

104.1

99.2

98.8

99.5

60.4

65.5

73.1

77.2

79.1

81.4

81.8

82.5

82.5

82.2

2.1

3.3

2.2

2.1

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.2

Economic 2.1 Institute 2.2 for 2.1 2.1Competitiveness 2.2

15


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida 2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2412.2

2527.2

2643.0

2767.6

2898.9

3037.4

4.8

4.8

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

2041

2042

2043

2044

3184.9

3339.2

3501.9

3673.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch)

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

1492.5

1532.1

1569.9

1610.3

1651.6

1694.9

1741.4

1788.7

1837.7

1889.3

Florida (%Ch)

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.8

U.S.(%Ch)

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

1316.3

1349.5

1381.3

1415.5

1450.3

1486.8

1525.9

1565.5

1606.5

1649.6

Florida (%Ch)

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

U.S.(%Ch)

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.2

2261.9

2369.8

2483.7

2604.0

2733.9

2868.4

3009.8

3161.8

3319.9

3487.6

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch)

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.1

1390.6

1428.0

1467.2

1508.0

1551.7

1595.9

1641.9

1690.7

1739.8

1790.9

(%Ch)

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

Employment

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

Labor Force

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

0.6

GSP (Bil. 2005$)

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

Florida

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

-0.7

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

-1.8

-2.2

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

Manufacturing

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

Nondurable Goods

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.1

-1.2

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

-0.9

-1.1

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.2

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.2

Wholesale Trade

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.9

Retail Trade

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.3

Financial Activities

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

Prof. and Business Services

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.4

Edu & Health Services

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.0

Leisure & Hospitality

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

Information

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.7

2.3

2.4

2.1

2.0

Federal Gov't.

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

4.8

-3.8

0.7

0.0

0.6

State & Local Gov't.

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

Mining Construction

Durable Goods

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

26698.3 27023.8 27349.6 27675.8 28002.7 28329.9 28657.2 28985.1 29313.8 29643.3 1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.1

264.2

264.4

264.4

264.2

264.2

263.9

263.7

263.7

263.6

263.4

-0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

182.8

181.8

180.0

179.7

178.5

179.1

179.9

179.9

181.3

182.7

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

101.0

100.6

100.1

99.8

98.4

98.6

99.4

98.9

100.0

101.7

81.8

81.1

79.9

79.9

80.1

80.6

80.5

80.9

81.2

81.0

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

Net Migration (thous) (%Ch)

Housing

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

Consumer Prices 16

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015 (%Ch)

2.4

2.3


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $)

872.6

881.4

888.9

897.2

909.1

919.8

931.7

945.6

961.5

975.0

Florida (%Ch)

4.8

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.8

5.4

5.8

6.0

6.1

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.7

U.S.(%Ch)

4.3

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.4

4.7

5.1

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.2

5.0

4.9 913.8

Personal Income (Bil. 2005$)

988.1 1001.7 1017.0 1031.4 1045.5 1059.1

804.6

810.3

814.7

820.1

828.1

833.4

839.7

847.7

858.9

866.6

873.8

881.4

890.3

898.5

906.4

Florida (%Ch)

4.5

4.3

4.2

3.6

2.9

2.9

3.1

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

U.S.(%Ch)

3.8

3.9

4.4

4.3

6.0

6.6

5.9

5.8

5.3

4.8

4.4

3.9

3.2

2.7

2.7

2.7 819.6

723.7

728.4

731.7

735.4

741.4

745.3

751.5

758.9

767.6

774.6

781.8

789.5

796.1

804.5

812.4

Florida(%Ch)

Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$)

4.8

4.5

4.3

3.6

2.5

2.3

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.8

U.S.(%Ch)

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.1

2.9

2.7

861.0

873.0

883.9

894.5

907.4

919.6

931.7

943.6

955.8

967.6

979.4

5.4

4.7

4.4

4.3

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.2

5.1

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

787.7

793.3

800.3

806.8

814.3

820.6

827.2

833.6

840.6

846.9

852.9

858.9

864.0

870.4

876.8

883.6

(%Ch)

3.8

3.2

2.9

2.8

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

Employment

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

Labor Force

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$)

991.3 1002.3 1014.6 1027.1 1040.0

Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change)

FL Unemployment Rate (%)

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.3

U.S. Unemployment Rate (%)

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S.

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

Florida

3.5

3.3

3.0

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.2 -0.3

Mining

0.0

-3.0

-5.5

-7.0

-5.6

-4.5

-3.1

-1.5

-0.7

0.2

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.0

Construction

8.5

7.8

7.6

7.7

7.2

8.0

8.6

9.5

9.8

10.1

10.0

9.0

8.3

7.3

6.5

5.5

Manufacturing

1.0

0.8

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0 -0.2

Nondurable Goods

-1.7

-1.6

-2.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

Durable Goods

2.4

2.1

1.1

0.6

1.0

0.8

1.0

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

3.2

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.1

2.4

1.8

Wholesale Trade

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.6

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.1

1.7

Retail Trade

3.5

3.5

3.4

2.2

1.3

0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.6

-0.8 -0.9

Financial Activities

2.9

2.9

2.7

1.3

1.6

1.0

0.4

0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

Prof. and Business Services

4.4

3.9

3.1

4.0

5.2

6.2

6.9

6.4

5.9

4.9

3.9

3.1

2.2

1.8

1.7

1.5

Edu & Health Services

4.0

3.7

3.4

2.4

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.8

2.3

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Information

5.0

4.3

3.6

2.4

1.6

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.4

1.0

1.6

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.4

-0.8

-0.2

0.0

0.5

0.7

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

2.2

3.1

2.6

2.6

0.9

0.1

0.4

0.3

Federal Gov't.

1.6

1.5

0.9

0.0

-0.9

-1.5

-1.4

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

-1.3

-1.3

State & Local Gov't.

0.5

0.6

0.8

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch)

20112.0 20187.3 20263.0 20339.0 20415.5 20492.2 20569.4 20647.0 20725.1 20803.8 20882.7 20962.0 21041.6 21121.6 21201.9 21282.3

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

Net Migration (thous)

64.5

66.0

66.0

66.0

66.0

65.9

65.9

65.9

65.9

65.9

65.9

65.9

66.0

66.1

66.3

66.3

(%Ch)

-3.1

-1.4

-0.2

1.0

2.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.6

Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous)

87.5

89.5

99.4

108.6

116.5

122.2

127.9

136.2

140.8

145.0

146.8

148.5

150.9

151.9

153.2

154.1

Housing Starts Single Family (thous)

58.6

60.6

67.6

72.6

77.3

80.8

85.7

93.6

98.3

100.2

101.4

102.1

103.8

104.6

104.3

103.9

Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous)

29.0

28.9

31.8

36.0

39.2

41.5

42.2

42.7

42.5

44.8

45.4

46.4

47.1

47.3

49.0

50.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.3

1.5

1.9

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

Housing

Consumer Prices (%Ch)

2.2

2.5

2.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

17


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7995.2 8044.6 8093.1 8136.0 8177.9 8222.1 8264.3 8306.5 8348.7 8389.8 8430.4 8467.1 8490.4 8518.1 8544.6 8565.9

Manufacturing

331.6

332.2

332.3

333.2

333.4

333.3

334.1

334.4

334.9

335.3

335.6

335.8

335.8

336.0

335.9

335.9

Durable Goods

224.8

225.5

225.9

227.0

227.1

227.2

228.1

228.5

229.1

229.5

229.8

230.1

230.2

230.4

230.4

230.4

Wood Products

11.4

11.3

11.2

11.3

11.2

11.2

11.4

11.5

11.6

11.7

11.8

12.0

12.0

12.1

12.1

12.2

Computer & Electronics

42.0

41.9

41.7

41.6

41.5

41.5

41.7

41.8

41.8

41.7

41.7

41.7

41.6

41.6

41.7

41.8

Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

37.3

37.4

37.7

37.9

37.9

37.9

38.0

37.9

38.1

38.1

38.1

38.0

37.9

37.7

37.4

37.0

106.8

106.7

106.4

106.3

106.3

106.2

106.0

105.9

105.8

105.8

105.8

105.7

105.7

105.6

105.5

105.5

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.5

29.5

29.6

29.6

29.6

29.7

29.7

29.7

29.8

29.8

7663.6 7712.5 7760.7 7802.8 7844.5 7888.7 7930.2 7972.1 8013.8 8054.5 8094.8 8131.3 8154.6 8182.1 8208.7 8230.0 5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

Construction

418.7

424.2

431.6

439.8

448.9

458.3

468.5

481.6

492.8

504.4

515.4

525.1

533.6

541.5

548.7

553.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

258.9

261.4

264.0

266.7

268.9

271.3

273.5

275.6

278.1

280.8

283.5

286.1

287.9

289.6

290.3

291.2

Wholesale Trade

333.5

335.6

339.2

341.5

342.6

344.2

345.4

347.0

348.9

351.3

354.1

357.0

358.6

360.1

361.6

363.2

Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services

1064.7 1073.7 1081.3 1081.4 1078.4 1077.8 1076.6 1074.0 1071.9 1073.5 1075.5 1074.9 1073.0 1071.2 1069.0 1066.3 134.8

135.8

136.3

136.9

135.7

135.9

136.2

136.2

138.7

140.1

139.8

139.7

139.9

140.3

140.4

140.1

1193.3 1202.0 1211.9 1234.3 1255.7 1276.2 1295.1 1313.3 1329.8 1339.2 1346.3 1353.4 1358.7 1363.9 1369.8 1373.6

Admin. & Support

595.4

597.5

600.5

614.4

628.0

640.6

652.4

662.6

674.8

680.3

684.8

690.4

694.3

699.1

704.4

707.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

501.8

507.9

514.2

522.7

530.6

538.4

545.4

553.4

557.6

561.3

563.5

564.9

565.9

566.2

566.5

566.8

96.1

96.7

97.1

97.1

97.1

97.2

97.3

97.3

97.4

97.7

97.9

98.2

98.4

98.6

98.8

99.1

Financial Activities

531.9

534.8

537.8

538.8

540.4

540.2

540.2

540.0

539.8

538.6

537.4

536.5

535.8

534.3

532.9

531.8

Real Estate & Rent

173.0

173.6

174.4

174.9

175.5

175.9

176.7

177.4

178.2

178.9

179.5

180.4

181.3

182.0

182.5

183.1

Fin. & Insurance

358.9

361.2

363.4

363.9

364.9

364.3

363.5

362.6

361.6

359.7

357.9

356.1

354.5

352.3

350.4

348.8

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

1188.4 1196.5 1204.5 1205.8 1213.2 1225.4 1233.1 1239.2 1241.7 1246.6 1251.4 1256.2 1257.9 1263.9 1269.0 1273.7 146.0

145.3

Health Services

1039.4 1046.3 1053.3 1054.6 1062.0 1074.5 1082.7 1089.4 1092.7 1098.5 1103.9 1109.7 1111.9

1118.6

Leisure & Hospitality

1119.3

Other Services Government

149.0

334.1

150.2

151.2

151.2

151.2

150.9

150.4

149.8

148.9

148.2

147.5

146.6

145.0

144.7

1124.0 1129.0

1125.4 1130.8 1134.5 1137.0 1135.2 1136.8 1138.5 1141.9 1146.6 1154.6 1161.5 1164.3 1168.1 1172.9 1177.7 335.7

336.9

337.8

338.6

339.1

339.3

339.4

339.5

339.5

339.6

339.9

340.6

341.2

342.0

342.8

1080.3 1081.8 1080.9 1079.9 1079.8 1079.7 1080.1 1082.1 1085.4 1088.6 1092.0 1095.5 1098.9 1102.8 1106.8 1110.6

Federal Gov't.

133.2

133.5

133.0

132.6

132.1

131.5

131.1

130.7

130.4

130.1

129.6

129.1

128.6

128.2

127.9

127.5

State & Local Gov't

947.1

948.3

948.0

947.4

947.8

948.2

949.0

951.4

955.0

958.5

962.4

966.4

970.3

974.5

978.9

983.1

*Quarterly at an annual rate

18

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 4. Employment Annual 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

7781.0

7984.0

7999.2

7715.0

7230.6

7172.6

7251.6

7396.1

7582.1

7826.8

Manufacturing

415.4

416.5

399.1

371.1

324.0

309.0

312.5

317.4

322.4

330.5

Durable Goods

280.9

284.7

269.3

249.4

214.5

203.6

206.2

209.9

215.1

222.4

Wood Products

22.4

21.6

17.0

12.8

9.1

8.4

8.6

8.8

10.4

11.2

Computer & Electronics

51.3

50.1

49.2

48.0

44.7

43.0

43.0

42.5

41.0

40.7

Transportation Equipment

45.6

45.7

44.6

42.5

34.9

33.8

34.2

35.4

36.4

37.2

134.5

131.8

129.8

121.7

109.5

105.5

106.3

107.5

107.3

108.1

32.4

31.2

31.4

29.6

27.9

27.5

28.7

29.2

29.5

29.8

7365.5

7567.5

7600.1

7343.9

6906.6

6863.6

6939.1

7078.7

7259.7

7496.3

7.1

6.6

6.7

6.2

5.5

5.4

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.7

Construction

637.4

682.1

622.8

515.9

396.7

350.6

335.4

342.3

366.2

397.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

249.8

253.3

253.5

248.2

231.8

227.1

235.4

240.6

247.0

253.8

Wholesale Trade

345.8

355.8

361.2

350.2

322.4

313.2

312.1

317.9

320.9

328.0

Retail Trade

1003.2

1023.0

1027.4

998.1

932.3

934.4

955.3

978.1

1004.8

1042.6

Information

164.7

163.2

162.7

157.2

143.8

137.1

135.7

133.6

134.1

136.1

1099.6

1148.1

1155.9

1082.5

993.2

1005.9

1035.9

1073.6

1116.9

1165.5

Admin. & Support

590.7

617.2

614.7

543.4

481.8

494.3

516.8

537.3

558.5

584.3

Prof. Sci & Tech

431.3

451.6

460.2

456.3

431.5

432.4

437.7

450.9

467.3

487.1

77.6

79.3

81.0

82.9

80.0

79.1

81.4

85.4

91.2

94.1

Financial Activities

539.9

556.6

551.1

526.0

487.4

478.0

486.5

499.4

512.6

523.1

Real Estate & Rent

176.7

182.5

178.1

169.8

154.9

150.4

153.1

160.0

165.4

171.8

Fin. & Insurance

363.2

374.1

373.0

356.1

332.4

327.6

333.4

339.4

347.2

351.3

Edu. & Health Service

960.3

986.0

1016.5

1038.0

1050.8

1070.7

1090.9

1109.4

1128.5

1159.8

Education Services

109.4

113.0

118.8

122.7

127.6

134.6

136.6

139.5

142.7

147.8

Health Services

850.9

873.0

897.7

915.3

923.2

936.1

954.3

969.8

985.8

1012.0

Leisure & Hospitality

950.8

964.9

983.9

970.5

926.9

931.4

957.2

997.5

1037.6

1086.1

Other Services

325.8

328.4

335.2

324.5

301.1

297.3

295.6

301.7

309.4

324.2

1081.2

1099.4

1123.2

1126.8

1114.8

1112.7

1093.3

1079.0

1075.9

1074.3

Federal Gov't.

128.7

127.8

128.0

129.7

132.7

142.3

134.0

132.8

132.0

131.8

State & Local Gov't

952.5

971.6

995.2

997.1

982.2

970.4

959.3

946.2

943.9

942.6

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Government

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

19


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 4. Employment Annual 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

8067.2

8242.7

8409.0

8529.8

8638.2

8784.2

8914.9

9038.1

9142.9

9227.2

Manufacturing

332.3

333.8

335.4

335.9

335.4

333.9

331.8

330.6

329.4

327.7

Durable Goods

225.8

227.7

229.6

230.3

229.9

228.5

226.9

226.5

225.9

224.9

Wood Products

11.3

11.3

11.8

12.1

12.3

12.7

13.0

13.3

13.7

13.9

Computer & Electronics

41.8

41.6

41.7

41.7

41.6

41.9

42.1

42.1

42.0

42.3

Transportation Equipment

37.6

38.0

38.1

37.5

36.0

34.7

33.4

32.4

31.4

30.3

106.5

106.1

105.8

105.6

105.5

105.3

104.8

104.2

103.5

102.7

29.6

29.5

29.6

29.8

29.9

30.1

30.2

30.1

30.1

30.1

7734.9

7908.9

8073.6

8193.9

8302.9

8450.3

8583.1

8707.5

8813.5

8899.5

5.5

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

Construction

428.6

464.3

509.4

544.4

564.7

582.7

600.0

613.0

625.0

635.1

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

262.8

272.3

282.1

289.7

292.8

295.7

298.3

300.7

301.8

302.0

Wholesale Trade

337.5

344.8

352.9

360.9

366.7

373.2

378.2

382.4

385.4

387.4

Retail Trade

1075.3

1076.7

1073.9

1069.9

1063.8

1067.4

1073.2

1078.4

1080.0

1078.9

Information

136.0

136.0

139.6

140.2

140.6

143.1

147.1

150.7

153.8

156.5

1210.4

1285.1

1342.2

1366.5

1400.3

1453.1

1507.9

1559.1

1603.7

1640.1

Admin. & Support

602.0

645.9

682.6

701.4

727.7

762.9

792.9

820.9

845.6

864.6

Prof. Sci & Tech

511.7

541.9

561.8

566.4

573.4

589.4

612.5

634.5

653.6

670.3

96.7

97.2

97.8

98.7

99.3

100.9

102.6

103.6

104.5

105.2

Financial Activities

535.8

540.2

538.1

533.7

533.3

536.7

542.1

548.5

554.0

559.3

Real Estate & Rent

174.0

176.4

179.3

182.2

184.7

187.0

189.1

191.0

192.7

194.1

Fin. & Insurance

361.8

363.8

358.8

351.5

348.6

349.6

353.0

357.5

361.3

365.2

1198.8

1227.7

1249.0

1266.1

1285.7

1307.3

1324.4

1339.6

1355.1

1366.7

150.4

150.6

147.8

145.2

143.7

142.3

141.4

141.1

140.3

138.0

Health Services

1048.4

1077.1

1101.2

1120.9

1142.0

1165.0

1183.0

1198.5

1214.9

1228.7

Leisure & Hospitality

1127.5

1136.9

1151.2

1170.8

1184.7

1195.4

1205.3

1209.5

1210.3

1212.5

336.1

339.1

339.6

341.7

344.9

348.2

351.1

353.2

355.8

358.7

1080.7

1080.4

1090.4

1104.7

1120.1

1142.5

1150.3

1167.1

1183.5

1197.3

Federal Gov't.

133.1

131.4

129.8

128.0

126.9

135.3

128.8

128.9

129.1

129.3

State & Local Gov't

947.7

949.1

960.6

976.7

993.2

1007.3

1021.6

1038.3

1054.5

1068.0

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Mgmt. of Co.

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government

20

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 4. Employment Annual 2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm

9326.9

9422.7

9507.1

9600.0

9705.3

9807.4

Manufacturing

325.4

322.7

319.5

316.8

314.7

313.3

312.3

310.7

309.4

308.5

Durable Goods

223.6

221.9

219.8

218.0

216.7

216.3

216.2

215.5

215.2

215.2

Wood Products

13.8

13.7

13.4

13.2

13.3

13.7

14.2

14.4

14.7

15.0

Computer & Electronics

42.8

43.1

43.3

43.4

43.5

43.6

43.8

43.9

44.0

44.0

Transportation Equipment

29.5

29.3

28.6

28.0

27.5

27.1

26.7

26.2

26.0

25.9

101.8

100.8

99.8

98.8

98.0

97.1

96.2

95.2

94.3

93.3

30.1

30.1

30.0

29.8

29.7

29.6

29.4

29.3

29.2

29.0

9001.5

9100.0

9187.6

9283.2

9390.6

9494.0

9616.7

9762.0

9881.6

9978.4

5.0

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

Construction

645.9

660.0

669.9

677.9

686.4

699.8

718.5

733.7

746.4

754.7

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

304.7

306.4

307.3

308.2

309.8

309.1

309.1

308.7

308.2

306.4

Wholesale Trade

388.7

390.3

390.6

389.2

388.0

386.0

385.5

385.1

384.2

382.3

Retail Trade

1082.6

1085.7

1086.2

1091.1

1094.9

1097.6

1104.5

1112.5

1120.4

1127.4

Information

158.0

160.7

163.5

166.3

169.0

171.1

173.8

176.7

180.0

183.8

1686.0

1738.0

1780.7

1821.0

1870.4

1913.1

1970.2

2041.4

2094.4

2137.4

Admin. & Support

893.8

918.0

937.8

955.6

983.2

1006.2

1041.7

1090.4

1121.7

1141.9

Prof. Sci & Tech

686.8

714.6

738.0

761.2

783.6

803.9

825.9

848.8

870.9

894.0

Mgmt. of Co.

105.4

105.3

104.9

104.2

103.6

103.0

102.7

102.3

101.9

101.6

Financial Activities

563.7

572.7

577.2

582.5

588.4

594.2

601.3

608.0

614.7

620.4

Real Estate & Rent

194.6

194.5

194.0

193.7

193.8

193.9

194.4

194.8

195.4

196.0

Fin. & Insurance

369.2

378.3

383.2

388.7

394.6

400.3

406.9

413.3

419.3

424.4

1378.8

1387.3

1400.1

1417.3

1435.8

1452.6

1473.0

1495.9

1515.5

1531.4

137.1

136.9

136.9

137.3

138.3

139.5

140.7

142.1

143.4

144.2

Health Services

1241.7

1250.4

1263.2

1280.1

1297.5

1313.1

1332.3

1353.9

1372.1

1387.2

Leisure & Hospitality

1214.2

1215.3

1218.5

1225.7

1233.3

1238.4

1247.7

1258.3

1267.8

1275.7

363.7

366.9

369.4

372.0

374.7

376.8

378.3

380.1

382.5

384.9

1210.2

1211.7

1219.3

1227.2

1235.1

1250.7

1250.0

1256.7

1262.7

1269.2

129.6

131.3

132.0

132.7

133.4

142.7

136.1

136.8

137.4

138.0

1080.6

1080.5

1087.3

1094.4

1101.7

1108.0

1114.0

1119.9

1125.3

1131.2

Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining

Prof. & Bus. Services

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

9929.1 10072.6 10191.0 10286.9

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

21


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 4. Employment Annual 2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing

307.6

306.4

305.0

303.8

302.5

300.8

299.2

297.2

295.7

294.1

Durable Goods

215.3

215.1

214.8

214.6

214.3

213.7

213.1

212.2

211.6

211.1

Wood Products

15.3

15.5

15.6

15.9

16.1

16.3

16.6

16.7

16.8

17.1

Computer & Electronics

44.1

44.3

44.5

44.7

45.0

45.3

45.6

45.9

46.3

46.7

Transportation Equipment

25.8

25.7

25.5

25.3

25.1

24.7

24.3

23.7

23.1

22.6

Nondurables

92.3

91.3

90.2

89.2

88.2

87.1

86.1

85.0

84.1

83.0

Foods

28.9

28.7

28.6

28.4

28.2

28.0

27.9

27.8

27.7

27.5

Non-Manufacturing Mining

10073.4 10174.0 10265.3 10358.6 10455.4 10560.3 10677.8 10805.2 10946.8 11097.7 4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

Construction

763.8

775.3

786.6

799.4

813.1

823.7

838.5

854.4

870.5

887.9

Trans. Warehs. & Utility

303.5

300.2

296.3

292.8

289.3

285.8

282.1

278.8

275.5

272.2

Wholesale Trade

379.9

377.6

374.9

372.3

370.1

368.8

368.9

370.6

373.2

376.6

Retail Trade

1136.3

1146.1

1154.1

1163.0

1170.2

1175.9

1181.7

1184.8

1187.3

1191.5

Information

188.0

192.1

196.0

199.9

203.7

207.2

211.8

217.0

221.5

226.0

2179.0

2222.0

2262.5

2297.8

2338.4

2385.3

2448.0

2516.9

2598.6

2686.5

1163.8

1189.1

1213.1

1231.7

1257.3

1282.6

1315.2

1351.8

1398.1

1449.7

Prof. Sci & Tech

914.0

931.9

948.8

965.7

981.0

1003.1

1033.3

1065.6

1100.8

1136.8

Mgmt. of Co.

101.3

101.0

100.6

100.4

100.1

99.6

99.5

99.6

99.8

100.0

Financial Activities

625.8

630.9

635.8

641.5

646.2

651.0

656.4

661.2

665.5

669.3

Real Estate & Rent

196.5

196.6

196.8

197.4

197.6

197.6

198.0

198.0

197.8

197.3

Fin. & Insurance

429.3

434.2

439.0

444.1

448.6

453.4

458.4

463.2

467.7

472.1

1545.5

1561.4

1576.6

1594.0

1611.4

1630.9

1651.2

1670.6

1689.4

1706.3

145.0

145.9

146.7

147.6

148.4

149.0

149.7

150.7

151.6

152.3

Health Services

1400.5

1415.6

1429.9

1446.4

1463.0

1481.9

1501.5

1520.0

1537.8

1554.0

Leisure & Hospitality

1284.6

1293.0

1300.2

1308.6

1316.3

1321.9

1328.1

1332.8

1338.0

1343.8

386.7

388.7

389.7

390.7

392.2

393.0

393.8

394.5

394.8

395.0

1275.5

1281.9

1287.9

1294.0

1300.0

1312.5

1312.8

1319.4

1328.2

1338.4

138.9

139.6

140.2

140.8

141.2

147.9

142.1

143.0

143.0

143.9

1136.7

1142.3

1147.7

1153.2

1158.8

1164.6

1170.7

1176.4

1185.2

1194.5

Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support

Edu. & Health Service Education Services

Other Services Government Federal Gov't. State & Local Gov't

22

10381.0 10480.4 10570.3 10662.4 10758.0 10861.1 10976.9 11102.5 11242.5 11391.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2015Q1

2015Q2

2015Q3

2015Q4

2016Q1

2016Q2

2016Q3

2016Q4

2017Q1

2017Q2

2017Q3

2017Q4

2018Q1

2018Q2

2018Q3

2018Q4

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

872.6

881.4

888.9

897.2

909.1

919.8

931.7

945.6

961.5

975.0

988.1 1001.7 1017.0 1031.4 1045.5 1059.1

Wages & Salaries

389.3

394.6

400.2

405.4

411.0

416.5

422.0

428.0

434.1

440.0

446.0

451.9

457.6

463.4

469.3

475.1

Other Labor Income

86.8

87.7

88.6

89.6

90.7

91.5

92.5

93.6

95.1

96.2

97.4

98.5

100.3

101.4

102.5

103.6

Nonfarm

51.4

52.3

53.5

54.0

55.0

56.2

56.8

57.7

58.5

59.4

59.8

60.3

60.7

61.2

61.7

62.3

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

Property Income

227.0

226.6

226.2

227.3

228.6

230.8

234.8

239.9

245.1

249.8

254.4

259.4

264.4

270.0

275.4

280.0

Transfer Payments

Farm

176.4

179.3

180.1

181.3

185.5

187.3

188.7

190.5

194.7

196.4

198.3

200.1

204.4

206.5

208.6

210.9

Social Insurance

61.4

62.2

62.9

63.6

65.1

65.8

66.6

67.5

69.3

70.3

71.1

72.0

74.0

74.8

75.6

76.5

Personal Income

804.6

810.3

814.7

820.1

828.1

833.4

839.7

847.7

858.9

866.6

873.8

881.4

890.3

898.5

906.4

913.8

Wages & Salaries

359.0

362.7

366.7

370.5

374.4

377.3

380.4

383.7

387.8

391.1

394.4

397.6

400.6

403.7

406.9

410.0

Other Labor Income

80.0

80.6

81.2

81.9

82.6

82.9

83.4

83.9

85.0

85.5

86.1

86.7

87.8

88.3

88.8

89.4

Nonfarm

47.4

48.1

49.0

49.4

50.1

50.9

51.2

51.7

52.2

52.8

52.9

53.0

53.1

53.4

53.5

53.7

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

209.3

208.3

207.3

207.8

208.3

209.1

211.6

215.1

218.9

222.1

225.0

228.2

231.5

235.2

238.7

241.6

Transfer Payments

162.6

164.8

165.1

165.7

169.0

169.7

170.1

170.8

173.9

174.6

175.3

176.1

178.9

179.9

180.9

182.0

56.6

57.2

57.6

58.2

59.3

59.6

60.0

60.5

61.9

62.5

62.9

63.4

64.8

65.1

65.5

66.0

Billions 2005 $

Farm

Social Insurance

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations 1259.1 1281.7 1297.7 1306.9 1314.0 1328.4 1337.9 1348.8 1367.7 1378.7 1394.5 1401.7 1396.0 1393.8 1392.8 1388.8 Retail Sales (Billions $)

291.2

293.8

297.5

300.5

303.9

308.4

312.7

317.2

320.5

324.8

329.0

333.2

337.3

341.4

345.7

349.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

268.5

270.1

272.7

274.6

276.8

279.4

281.8

284.4

286.3

288.7

290.9

293.2

295.3

297.5

299.7

301.5

*Quarterly at an annual rate

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

23


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

646.9

702.9

731.4

735.7

696.7

725.2

767.4

793.0

811.4

848.4

Wages & Salaries

309.9

332.5

342.9

338.9

320.8

322.9

332.4

346.5

358.2

377.1

Other Labor Income

71.9

72.4

75.4

76.8

73.3

76.5

75.2

78.0

81.5

84.9

Nonfarm

43.3

48.7

43.2

39.0

36.8

38.3

40.4

45.3

48.0

50.5

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.2

167.0

191.9

207.4

207.0

175.1

186.8

210.8

213.3

216.1

222.7

Transfer Payments

98.1

104.7

111.5

123.0

138.1

148.6

152.2

155.5

160.6

169.5

Social Insurance

46.5

50.4

51.9

51.7

50.0

50.7

46.8

48.8

56.5

59.8

Farm Property Income

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

701.1

742.0

753.2

735.3

696.7

713.3

736.9

747.6

755.9

780.0

Wages & Salaries

335.9

351.0

353.2

338.7

320.8

317.6

319.2

326.7

333.7

346.7

Other Labor Income

78.0

76.5

77.7

76.8

73.3

75.3

72.2

73.5

75.9

78.0

Nonfarm

46.9

51.4

44.5

39.0

36.8

37.6

38.8

42.7

44.8

46.4

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

Property Income

180.9

202.6

213.6

206.9

175.2

183.7

202.4

201.0

201.4

204.8

Transfer Payments

106.4

110.6

114.8

123.0

138.0

146.1

146.1

146.6

149.6

155.8

50.4

53.2

53.4

51.6

50.0

49.9

44.9

46.0

52.7

54.9

1453.1

1417.0

1241.5

950.7

707.0

810.5

879.8

1006.9

1101.0

1224.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

242.5

258.1

262.3

251.7

226.6

242.3

259.1

266.2

277.3

289.2

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

262.8

272.4

270.2

251.6

226.6

238.3

248.8

250.9

258.3

265.9

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

24

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

885.0

926.6

981.6

1038.3

1097.8

1159.9

1218.3

1277.3

1340.1

1404.4

Wages & Salaries

397.4

419.4

443.0

466.4

491.3

519.2

547.2

575.6

604.5

633.9

Other Labor Income

88.2

92.1

96.8

101.9

107.1

112.2

117.4

122.7

128.4

133.6

Nonfarm

52.8

56.4

59.5

61.5

64.5

68.4

72.4

76.6

81.0

85.3

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

Property Income

226.8

233.6

252.2

272.5

292.0

310.3

324.3

337.2

351.3

365.4

Transfer Payments

179.3

188.0

197.4

207.6

219.3

231.2

243.5

256.8

272.0

288.9

62.5

66.2

70.7

75.2

80.0

85.2

90.6

95.9

101.3

107.0

Farm

Social Insurance

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

812.4

837.2

870.2

902.3

936.1

973.7

1005.3

1034.1

1063.7

1093.9

Wages & Salaries

364.7

378.9

392.7

405.3

418.9

435.8

451.5

466.0

479.8

493.8

Other Labor Income

80.9

83.2

85.8

88.6

91.3

94.2

96.9

99.4

101.9

104.1

Nonfarm

48.5

51.0

52.7

53.4

55.0

57.4

59.7

62.0

64.3

66.5

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

Property Income

208.2

211.0

223.6

236.8

249.0

260.5

267.6

273.0

278.9

284.6

Transfer Payments

164.5

169.9

175.0

180.4

187.0

194.1

200.9

207.9

215.9

225.0

57.4

59.8

62.7

65.4

68.2

71.5

74.8

77.6

80.4

83.4

1286.3

1332.3

1385.7

1392.8

1400.2

1431.1

1446.9

1451.4

1454.5

1458.2

Retail Sales (Billions $)

295.8

310.6

326.9

343.5

359.9

375.2

391.8

409.8

428.4

447.5

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

271.5

280.6

289.8

298.5

306.9

315.0

323.3

331.8

340.1

348.6

Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

25


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

1472.5

1560.6

1640.4

1721.4

1805.5

1892.6

1987.2

2089.0

2194.0

2301.5

Wages & Salaries

665.8

699.8

733.3

768.3

805.4

843.5

885.0

929.0

972.7

1015.8

Other Labor Income

139.0

146.3

152.1

157.9

164.0

170.2

177.2

185.4

193.3

200.6

90.2

96.9

102.1

107.7

113.5

119.6

126.2

133.1

140.4

148.3

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

Property Income

379.8

404.1

422.4

439.8

457.6

476.8

498.4

522.0

547.7

575.6

Transfer Payments

306.2

330.0

352.9

376.2

399.8

423.9

448.9

475.5

503.7

532.9

Social Insurance

113.0

120.9

127.0

133.2

139.7

146.4

153.7

161.4

169.4

177.5

Nonfarm Farm

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

1126.7

1156.2

1191.4

1225.7

1260.3

1295.3

1332.6

1372.9

1413.2

1453.0

Wages & Salaries

509.5

518.4

532.5

547.0

562.2

577.3

593.4

610.5

626.5

641.3

Other Labor Income

106.4

108.4

110.4

112.4

114.5

116.5

118.8

121.9

124.5

126.6

69.0

71.8

74.2

76.7

79.2

81.9

84.7

87.5

90.5

93.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

Property Income

290.6

299.4

306.8

313.2

319.4

326.3

334.2

343.0

352.8

363.4

Transfer Payments

234.3

244.5

256.3

267.9

279.1

290.1

301.0

312.5

324.4

336.4

86.4

89.6

92.2

94.8

97.5

100.2

103.0

106.1

109.1

112.1

1472.2

1482.0

1485.8

1498.9

1508.8

1518.5

1535.3

1551.2

1562.1

1577.8

Retail Sales (Billions $)

468.2

495.4

518.9

543.1

567.9

593.9

622.3

652.8

685.2

718.9

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

358.3

367.0

376.9

386.7

396.4

406.5

417.3

429.0

441.4

453.8

Nonfarm Farm

Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

26

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida S ummary T ables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual 2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

Billions Current Dollars Personal Income

2412.2

2527.2

2643.0

2767.6

2898.9

3037.4

3184.9

3339.2

3501.9

3673.9

Wages & Salaries

1060.4

1107.5

1155.3

1205.6

1258.0

1313.4

1374.8

1440.1

1510.8

1586.6

Other Labor Income

207.8

215.3

223.4

232.3

241.2

250.2

259.9

269.1

279.4

290.1

Nonfarm

156.9

165.8

175.0

184.8

195.1

206.0

217.3

228.9

241.2

254.2

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

Property Income

603.9

632.7

659.5

690.1

722.6

757.1

793.0

830.6

868.8

908.9

Transfer Payments

563.1

594.6

627.4

662.3

699.7

738.8

779.1

820.9

863.9

908.9

Social Insurance

186.0

195.0

204.1

214.1

224.7

235.4

246.8

258.5

270.8

283.7

Farm

Billions 2005 $ Personal Income

1492.5

1532.1

1569.9

1610.3

1651.6

1694.9

1741.4

1788.7

1837.7

1889.3

Wages & Salaries

656.1

671.4

686.2

701.4

716.7

732.9

751.7

771.4

792.9

815.9

Other Labor Income

128.6

130.5

132.7

135.2

137.4

139.6

142.1

144.2

146.6

149.2

97.1

100.5

103.9

107.5

111.1

114.9

118.8

122.6

126.6

130.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

Property Income

373.7

383.6

391.7

401.5

411.7

422.5

433.6

444.9

456.0

467.4

Transfer Payments

348.4

360.5

372.6

385.4

398.7

412.3

426.0

439.7

453.4

467.4

Social Insurance

115.1

118.2

121.2

124.6

128.0

131.4

134.9

138.5

142.1

145.9

1595.5

1615.6

1638.2

1661.9

1684.6

1705.3

1726.9

1750.8

1776.2

1800.7

Retail Sales (Billions $)

754.3

790.9

829.4

870.4

914.4

960.8

1009.1

1060.0

1113.5

1170.7

Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$)

466.7

479.5

492.6

506.5

521.0

536.1

551.7

567.8

584.3

602.0

Nonfarm Farm

New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27


F lorida C harts

Florida Construction Employment (Thousands)

900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago)

6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%

28

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL CPI

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida C harts

Florida Education & Health Services Employment 1800.0

(Thousands)

1600.0 1400.0 1200.0 1000.0 800.0 600.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Federal Government Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29


F lorida C harts

Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands)

700.0 650.0 600.0 550.0 500.0 450.0 400.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago)

15% 11% 7% 2% -2% -6%

30

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Gross State Product

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida C harts

Florida Housing Starts (Thousands)

300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Total Private Housing Starts

Florida Information Employment 240.0

(Thousands)

220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

31


F lorida C harts

Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands)

1400.0 1300.0 1200.0 1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands)

500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0

32

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida C harts

New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50%

(percent ch. year ago)

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Employment 12000.0

(Thousands)

11000.0 10000.0 9000.0 8000.0 7000.0 6000.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Wage & Salary Employment

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33


F lorida C harts

Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago)

9% 4% -1% -5% -10%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Population (Thousands)

30000.0 28000.0 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0

34

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida C harts

Florida Professional & Business Services Employment 3000.0

(Thousands)

2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Real Gross State Product 10%

(percent ch. year ago)

5% 0% -5% -10%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida State & Local Government Employment 1200.0

(Thousands)

1100.0 1000.0 900.0 800.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Institute for Economic Competitiveness

35


F lorida C harts

Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands)

1900.0 1800.0 1700.0 1600.0 1500.0 1400.0

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044

Florida Unemployment Rate (percent)

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%

36

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Unemployment Rate

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


F lorida N e w s S ummaries

FPL’s Nuclear Plants Boost Florida’s Economy $1.4 Billion Each Year • A new study published by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) shows that the Florida Power & Light Company contributes more than $1.4 billion annually to the Florida economy from its nuclear energy facilities.

• NEI Vice President Richard Myers confirms that the “operation of FPL’s nuclear energy facilities is vitally important to strengthening the state economy through job creation, tax payments, and direct secondary spending.”

• Nuclear plants foster job growth and currently employ thousands of people across the state at high wages, and are important components in the communities by which they are surrounded.

Source: Global News Wire, April 16, 2015

The Health Care Gap in the Sunshine Economy • There is a health care gap in the Florida economy, arising from implementation of the Affordable Health Care Act and the Florida Legislature’s rejection of an expanded Medicaid program. Between the policies, there is a shortage in coverage that over 850,000 Floridians are experiencing. • Since 2013, Florida lawmakers have been adamant to not receive federal funding to help offset the costs of an expanded Medicaid program. Now, as of the beginning of 2015, the proposal is once again being debated in the Florida Legislature, putting a hold on setting the state budget.

• There is currently no deadline to come to a decision on Medicaid expansion, but Florida’s fiscal budget for 2016 is due by July 1, 2015.

Source: WLRN, April 20, 2015

Florida Department of Citrus Seeks Help From Taxpayers • A fatal bacterial disease has hit Florida citrus production hard. The annual harvest has dropped by half since the disease was discovered back in 2005. As a result, the Florida Department of Citrus is seeking financial assistance from the state. • Florida’s orange crops have dropped to a 50-year low of 96.4 million boxes, and the forecasted grapefruit harvest should be the lowest seen since 1931.

• The citrus industry in Florida supports over 60,000 jobs and generates over $11 billion per year. Its economic impact is profound and as such, the Agricultural and Natural Resources Appropriations subcommittee is seeking a $5.75 million appropriation from Florida’s fund for the Citrus Department 2015-16 budget.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, May 12, 2015

Florida draws record number of visitors in first quarter • For the first three months of 2015, over 28 million people visited the state of Florida, an increase of 6.2% from last year’s numbers.

• Additionally, the travel-related jobs in the first quarter are up 4.8% from 2014 with 1.2 million Floridians employed by the tourism industry. • In a news release, Governor Rick Scott stated that Florida’s “growing tourism industry employs over 1 million Floridians and is helping us meet our goal of becoming the global destination for jobs. We are excited to start 2015 off with our biggest quarter ever, which puts us on pace to exceed our goal of 100 million visitors to Florida this year.”

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, May 15, 2015

Florida’s political plight: Health care funding issue looms • The Affordable Health Care Act has seized the Florida Senate in a legislative battle over funding the health insurance coverage.

• Coverage expansion for Florida is made problematic by funding; federal money tied up to such an expansion would exacerbate other health care dollars that are drying up quickly.

• Florida senators are currently trying to push a proposal for health care funding through to a vote. The proposal is called the Florida Health Insurance Affordability Exchange (FHIX), and is hailed as a free-market approach to health care. FHIX would require small monthly premiums from those receiving vouchers, and would further stipulate that these recipients be working or in school.

Source: The Gainesville Sun, June 1, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

37


D eltona – Daytona B each – O rmond B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500.

• Volusia County Schools – 7,503

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 4.8 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $34,500. The average annual wage will be the lowest of the studied areas at $41,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be moderate at 3.5 percent. Population growth will average 1.2 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 15,302.43 million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.0 percent each year. Unemployment will average 5.7 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.9 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 5.2 percent annually. The Education and Health Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience a decline, at -1.1 percent.

• Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market – 3,256

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Daytona State College – 1,568

Consolidated Tomoka helping to drive Daytona’s growth

QUICK FACTS:

• Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 279,420 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.6% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 15,693 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Halifax Health – 4,709

• County of Volusia – 3,341

• Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University – 1,423 • Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. – 916 • Frontier Communications – 800

• Department of Transportation – 700 • Bert Fish Medical Center – 700

Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida

• Consolidated Tomoka Land Co., a large landowner in the Daytona area, is positively impacting the local economy by bringing businesses and distribution companies to buy their land.

• Consolidated Tomoka Land Co. began 113 years ago in Jacksonville. The company moved its headquarters to Daytona Beach in 1985, after much of their land around I-95 had been sold. Afterwards, most of their remaining land was in the Daytona area. • Many factors helped this company’s recent success, such as the economic recovery and a change in leadership near the beginning of the 4th quarter of 2011.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 24, 2015 38

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Daytona’s Hilton resort up for sale again

• Starting around May 9th, LNR Property will put the largest hotel in the Flagler-Volusia area, the Hilton Daytona Beach Oceanfront Resort, up for sale. • The Hilton has seen positive year-over-year growth since 2013 with the strengthening tourism industry.

• Tim Davis, a commercial real estate agent for Charles Wayne Properties in Daytona Beach, is not sure why the owners want to sell now, when the value of the hotel could very well increase due to the continued recovery of the tourism industry. LNR Property may be testing the market.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 25, 2015 ‘Rooftops’ and residents drive Port Orange restaurant growth

• With at least six new restaurants opening within the year (and more along the way), the restaurant business is largely expanding in the Port Orange area. • The growth in the restaurant business is due to the local Port Orange residents, according to local industry insiders. E.V. “Buddy” LaCour, a local developer, believes it is due to pent-up demand and the currently recovering economy.

• LaCour believes the restaurant growth will increase competition, which will in turn increase the quality and pricing of the restaurants.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 16, 2015

Volusia, Flagler home sales, prices rise to highest in years • Flagler County saw an increase of 8 percent in home sales compared to that of April last year. The median sales price also rose by 8 percent from last year to $167,750. These are the highest levels of sales and median price for Flagler County since 2007.

• Volusia County sold an additional 21 percent of already existing homes compared to April of last year. The median price for April 2015 was $148,500, 19 percent higher than that of April last year. These are the highest levels of sales and median price for Volusia County since 2008.

• The rise in home sales and prices may be due to growing demand coupled with less supply, according to Matthew Wilson, president of the Flagler County Association of Realtors.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 21, 2015

Goodwill buys commercial property in Port Orange • In May, Goodwill bought the 2,700-square-foot building in Port Orange, which used to be a Sunshine State Bank branch, for $505,000. This property is about four miles away from where Goodwill is also currently building a thrift shop and donation-processing center.

• Goodwill’s new thrift shop and donationprocessing center building will be used to replace their smaller location, also located in Port Orange, with the newer 21,000-square-foot building. • The former bank building will be used as a donation center as well as initially a processing donations center.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, June 2, 2015

Orlando firm takes over NSB’s Venetian Bay Golf Club

• The management of Venetian Bay Golf Club in New Smyrna Beach has switched hands to Integrity Golf Co., an Orlando-based company. Previously the location had been managed by Virginia-based Billy Casper Golf. • Though this is Integrity’s first golf course in Volusia County, the company is operating 22 courses in Central Florida in some form as well as others out of state.

• Geosam Capital, developer of the golf course, switched management companies due to inadequate attention to the quality of the golf course greens. Martin Pham, vice president of operations, says, “I think we’ll see improvements all around. We wanted a better presentation for our golf club, which is the main amenity here.” • Kris Sainsbury, the new general manager, says that most of the 35 original workers were retained under the new management.

Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, June 2, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39


D eltona – Daytona B each – O rmond B each Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

(percent)

1.4

1.6

35000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0 20000.0

2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate

Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment (Thousands)

240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Deltona Payroll Employment 40

1.2

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

260.0

1.0

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

0.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

15000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income

(percent change year ago) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

22.4 4.5 7.3 15.1

22.6 4.2 7.4 15.2

22.8 4 7.5 15.3

23 4 7.6 15.4

23.2 3.5 7.7 15.5

23.5 3.7 7.8 15.7

23.7 4.2 7.9 15.8

24.1 4.8 8 16.1

24.4 5.2 8.1 16.3

24.7 5.4 8.2 16.5

25 5.5 8.3 16.7

25.3 5.4 8.4 16.9

25.7 5.3 8.5 17.2

26.1 5.4 8.6 17.5

26.4 5.4 8.7 17.7

26.7 5.4 8.8 17.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

20.7 4.3

20.8 4.2

20.9 4

21 3.6

21.1 2.3

21.3 2.2

21.4 2.4

21.6 2.7

21.8 3.2

22 3.4

22.1 3.5

22.3 3.4

22.5 3.2

22.7 3.3

22.9 3.4

23 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.5 33.6

36.7 33.7

36.8 33.7

37 33.8

37.3 34

37.6 34

37.9 34.1

38.3 34.3

38.7 34.6

39.1 34.8

39.5 34.9

39.8 35.1

40.3 35.3

40.7 35.5

41.1 35.6

41.4 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

38.8 2

39.1 2.4

39.4 3.2

39.8 3.4

40.1 3.4

40.5 3.5

40.8 3.5

41.2 3.7

41.6 3.7

42 3.7

42.4 3.7

42.7 3.7

43.2 3.8

43.6 3.9

44 4

44.5 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

186.8 3.3

188 3.7

189 3.4

189.7 3.4

190.4 1.9

191.1 1.7

191.9 1.5

192.6 1.5

193.3 1.5

194 1.5

194.8 1.5

195.3 1.4

195.7 1.2

196.3 1.2

196.8 1.1

197.2 0.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 0

10.4 0.9

10.4 -0.1

10.4 0.7

10.4 0.6

10.4 0.3

10.5 0.5

10.5 0.3

10.5 0.5

10.5 0.7

10.5 0.5

10.5 0.6

10.5 0.5

10.5 0.4

10.5 0.2

10.5 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

176.4 3.5

177.6 3.9

178.6 3.7

179.2 3.6

179.9 2

180.7 1.7

181.5 1.6

182.2 1.6

182.8 1.6

183.5 1.6

184.2 1.5

184.8 1.5

185.1 1.3

185.7 1.2

186.3 1.1

186.7 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.4 4.1

10.4 5.5

10.6 3.5

10.8 6.7

11 6

11.2 7.8

11.5 8.6

11.8 9.5

12.1 9.6

12.3 9.5

12.5 8.8

12.7 7.7

12.9 6.8

13.1 6.3

13.2 5.7

13.3 4.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.2 3.8

35.5 3.5

35.8 3.3

35.8 3.2

35.8 1.5

35.8 0.6

35.7 -0.2

35.7 -0.5

35.7 -0.3

35.7 -0.1

35.8 0.3

35.8 0.5

35.8 0.5

35.8 0.2

35.8 -0.1

35.7 -0.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

4.6 28.3 2.3

4.6 28.5 2.4

4.7 28.7 2.4

4.7 28.7 2.4

4.7 28.6 2.4

4.8 28.5 2.4

4.8 28.5 2.5

4.8 28.3 2.5

4.8 28.3 2.5

4.9 28.3 2.5

4.9 28.3 2.5

4.9 28.2 2.6

5 28.2 2.6

5 28.1 2.6

5 28 2.6

5 28 2.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.6 -3.6

2.6 -2.8

2.6 0.5

2.6 2.8

2.6 1.5

2.6 0.6

2.6 0.5

2.6 0.1

2.7 2.7

2.7 3.4

2.7 2.8

2.7 2.6

2.7 0.9

2.7 0.1

2.7 0.3

2.7 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 4

8.8 4.2

8.9 4.9

8.9 4.2

8.9 1.5

8.9 0.6

8.9 -0.1

8.8 -0.5

8.8 -0.8

8.8 -1

8.8 -1.1

8.7 -1.2

8.7 -1.3

8.7 -1.3

8.6 -1.3

8.6 -1.3

22 10.1

22.2 11.6

22.5 10.8

22.9 7.8

23.2 5.6

23.5 5.8

23.8 6.1

24.1 5.5

24.4 5

24.5 4.3

24.6 3.4

24.7 2.5

24.8 1.7

24.9 1.4

25 1.3

25 1

37 2.9

37.2 2.9

37.5 3.1

37.5 4.4

37.6 1.7

37.9 1.9

38.2 1.9

38.3 2.3

38.3 1.9

38.5 1.5

38.6 1.2

38.8 1.1

38.8 1.2

39 1.3

39.2 1.4

39.3 1.4

28.1 1.3

28.2 2.1

28.3 1

28.3 0

28.3 0.7

28.2 0

28.2 -0.2

28.2 -0.3

28.3 -0.2

28.3 0.3

28.5 0.8

28.6 1.2

28.6 1.1

28.7 1.2

28.7 1

28.8 0.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.5 2.1

8.6 2.4

8.6 2.7

8.6 1.7

8.6 1.4

8.7 1

8.7 0.7

8.7 0.5

8.7 0.3

8.7 0

8.7 -0.1

8.7 -0.1

8.7 0.1

8.7 0.3

8.7 0.5

8.7 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1.3 0

1.3 0

1.3 -0.8

1.3 0.1

1.3 -1

1.3 -1.6

1.3 -1.6

1.3 -1.6

1.3 -1.3

1.3 -1.1

1.3 -1.2

1.3 -1.2

1.3 -1.3

1.2 -1.4

1.2 -1.3

1.2 -1.2

22.6 1.6

22.6 2.5

22.6 2.6

22.6 2.7

22.6 -0.1

22.6 -0.3

22.5 -0.1

22.6 0.1

22.7 0.4

22.7 0.8

22.8 1.1

22.9 1.2

22.9 1.2

23 1.3

23.1 1.4

23.2 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

615.2 1.2

616.7 1.1

618.5 1.1

620.4 1.1

622.3 1.2

624.4 1.2

626.4 1.3

628.5 1.3

630.3 1.3

632.2 1.3

634.2 1.2

636.1 1.2

637.9 1.2

640.2 1.3

642.6 1.3

644.9 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

283.4 0.1

286.3 1.6

288.8 2.4

290.8 2.9

292.8 3.3

294.7 2.9

296.7 2.8

298.6 2.7

300.4 2.6

302.2 2.5

304.1 2.5

305.8 2.4

307.3 2.3

308.9 2.2

310.5 2.1

312 2

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.1

5.8

5.7

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.9

6

6

1536 1332 204

1822 1567 255

2317 1918 399

2765 2210 555

3222 2518 705

3716 2806 910

4238 3166 1072

4806 3582 1224

5205 3852 1354

5280 3914 1366

5337 3953 1384

5379 3978 1401

5452 4062 1391

5525 4134 1391

5585 4143 1442

5590 4126 1465

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

41


D eltona – Daytona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

19.4 5.9 6.7 12.6

19.6 1 6.6 12.9

18.6 -5 6.2 12.4

19.4 4.1 6.3 13.1

20 3.5 6.3 13.7

20.6 2.7 6.6 14

21 1.9 6.7 14.2

21.8 3.9 7 14.8

20 3.3

19.6 -2

18.6 -4.9

19 2.4

19.2 1

19.4 0.8

19.5 0.7

20 2.6

32.9 33.9

33.1 33.1

31.5 31.5

32.8 32.2

33.8 32.5

34.5 32.5

34.8 32.4

35.7 32.8

35.1 3.3

35.6 1.4

35.4 -0.6

36.2 2.2

36.3 0.2

37.4 3

37.5 0.4

38.2 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

190.7 -0.8

184.8 -3.1

174.6 -5.5

172.4 -1.3

173.5 0.6

175.2 1

177.9 1.5

182.1 2.4

11.6 -4

10.2 -12.1

8.7 -14.7

8.4 -2.9

9.1 7.7

9.3 2.7

9.9 5.8

10.4 5.1

179.2 -0.6

174.6 -2.6

166 -4.9

164 -1.2

164.4 0.2

165.8 0.9

168 1.3

171.7 2.2

16.2 -11.2

12.9 -20.2

10 -22.8

8.8 -11.6

8.2 -6.6

8.5 3.3

9.3 9.8

10.1 7.8

37.1 1.5

36.1 -2.7

33.7 -6.6

33.5 -0.7

33.5 0.2

33.8 0.9

33.7 -0.2

34.4 2

5.6 28.8 2.7

5.5 28 2.6

5.2 26.3 2.2

5.1 26.3 2.1

5 26.5 2

4.9 26.8 2.1

4.6 27 2.2

4.5 27.6 2.3

3.6 2.2

3.8 5.6

3.5 -6.9

3.2 -8.1

3.1 -4.2

2.9 -5.7

2.8 -5.2

2.6 -4.5

9 -0.1

8.6 -4.8

7.9 -8

7.9 0.1

8.1 2

8.4 4.2

8.5 1.2

8.5 -0.4

18.4 -7.1

17.7 -4

17.7 -0.1

17.3 -2.1

17.8 3

18.5 3.8

19.4 4.6

20.3 5

32.2 0.7

33.8 4.9

33.6 -0.5

34.1 1.5

34.8 2

34.9 0.5

35.6 1.9

36.1 1.4

25.2 3.8

25.2 -0.4

24 -4.6

24.1 0.5

25.1 4.3

25.9 3

26.5 2.5

27.9 5.2

8.9 -1.5

8.9 1

9.2 3

8.8 -4.1

8.3 -5.7

8.3 0.1

8.3 -0.1

8.4 0.8

1.6 2.1

1.6 0

1.6 0

1.7 6.8

1.4 -17.1

1.3 -8.2

1.3 -1.9

1.3 2

27.1 2.4

26.1 -3.4

24.8 -5

24.6 -1.1

24 -2.1

23.2 -3.3

22.6 -3

22.1 -2.1

589.1 1.6

590.5 0.2

589.7 -0.1

590.9 0.2

592.4 0.3

596.4 0.7

602.4 1

610.8 1.4

278.8 2.5

279.9 0.4

277.8 -0.8

279.6 0.6

279.6 0

279.5 0

279.7 0.1

282.4 0.9

4.9

7.4

11.5

12.3

11.2

9.5

8.1

6.8

2760 2134 626

1870 1312 558

874 770 104

1001 849 152

1178 660 518

1010 993 17

1889 1656 233

2024 1844 180

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

42

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

22.7 4.2 7.4 15.3

23.6 4 7.8 15.8

24.9 5.4 8.2 16.6

26.2 5.4 8.7 17.6

27.6 5.3 9.1 18.5

29 5.1 9.6 19.4

30.4 4.6 10.1 20.3

31.7 4.5 10.6 21.1

33.2 4.6 11.2 22

34.7 4.5 11.7 23

20.8 4

21.3 2.4

22.1 3.4

22.8 3.3

23.5 3.3

24.4 3.5

25.1 2.8

25.7 2.5

26.3 2.6

27 2.6

36.7 33.7

37.8 34.1

39.3 34.8

40.9 35.5

42.4 36.2

43.9 36.9

45.3 37.4

46.6 37.8

48.1 38.2

49.6 38.6

39.3 2.7

40.7 3.5

42.2 3.7

43.8 3.9

45.7 4.2

47.5 4.1

49.4 4

51.4 3.9

53.4 4

55.6 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

188.4 3.5

191.5 1.7

194.3 1.5

196.5 1.1

198.4 1

201 1.3

203.4 1.2

205.7 1.1

207.6 0.9

209.1 0.7

10.4 0.4

10.4 0.4

10.5 0.6

10.5 0.3

10.5 0

10.5 -0.3

10.4 -0.5

10.4 -0.2

10.4 -0.2

10.4 -0.4

178 3.6

181.1 1.7

183.9 1.5

186 1.1

187.9 1.1

190.5 1.4

193 1.3

195.3 1.2

197.2 1

198.7 0.8

10.5 4.9

11.4 8

12.4 8.9

13.1 5.9

13.5 3.1

13.9 2.5

14.2 2.2

14.4 1.5

14.6 1.3

14.7 1

35.6 3.4

35.7 0.4

35.8 0.1

35.8 0.1

35.7 -0.2

35.8 0.3

36 0.5

36.2 0.4

36.2 0.1

36.2 -0.1

4.7 28.6 2.4

4.8 28.5 2.4

4.9 28.3 2.5

5 28.1 2.6

5.1 27.8 2.6

5.2 27.9 2.6

5.3 28 2.7

5.3 28.1 2.7

5.4 28.1 2.7

5.4 28 2.7

2.6 -0.8

2.6 0.7

2.7 2.9

2.7 0.3

2.7 0

2.8 1.8

2.8 3.1

2.9 2.6

3 2.1

3 1.9

8.8 4.3

8.9 0.4

8.8 -1

8.7 -1.3

8.6 -0.3

8.7 0.5

8.7 0.8

8.8 1.1

8.9 0.9

9 0.8

22.4 10

23.7 5.8

24.6 3.8

24.9 1.3

25.4 1.9

26.2 3.2

27.1 3.4

27.9 3.1

28.6 2.5

29.2 2

37.3 3.3

38 2

38.6 1.4

39.1 1.3

39.7 1.6

40.4 1.8

40.9 1.4

41.5 1.3

42 1.3

42.4 1

28.2 1.1

28.3 0

28.4 0.5

28.7 1

28.9 0.6

29 0.3

29 0.3

29 -0.1

28.9 -0.4

28.8 -0.2

8.6 2.2

8.7 0.9

8.7 0

8.7 0.4

8.7 0.6

8.8 0.7

8.9 0.6

8.9 0.6

9 0.7

9 0.8

1.3 -0.2

1.3 -1.5

1.3 -1.2

1.2 -1.3

1.2 -0.7

1.4 11.5

1.3 -8.6

1.3 0.3

1.3 0.4

1.3 0.1

22.6 2.3

22.6 -0.1

22.8 0.9

23.1 1.4

23.4 1.5

23.7 1.2

24 1.2

24.4 1.5

24.7 1.5

25 1.2

617.7 1.1

625.4 1.2

633.2 1.2

641.4 1.3

650.9 1.5

660.6 1.5

670.3 1.5

680.2 1.5

690 1.4

699.8 1.4

287.3 1.8

295.7 2.9

303.1 2.5

309.7 2.2

314.8 1.6

319 1.3

323.1 1.3

327.5 1.4

331.7 1.3

334.9 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.9

6.2

6

5.8

5.8

5.8

5.9

2110 1757 353

3996 3018 977

5300 3924 1376

5538 4116 1422

5731 4219 1512

5890 4331 1559

5860 4336 1523

5876 4391 1484

5852 4418 1434

5892 4493 1399

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

43


D eltona – Daytona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

36.3 4.6 12.3 24

38.4 5.7 12.9 25.5

40.2 4.9 13.5 26.7

42.1 4.7 14.1 28

44 4.6 14.8 29.2

46.1 4.6 15.5 30.5

48.2 4.7 16.3 31.9

50.6 4.9 17.1 33.5

53 4.8 17.9 35.1

55.5 4.7 18.7 36.8

27.7 2.7

28.4 2.4

29.2 2.8

30 2.6

30.7 2.6

31.5 2.5

32.3 2.6

33.2 2.8

34.1 2.7

35 2.6

51.1 39.1

54.2 40.1

56.1 40.7

58 41.3

60 41.9

62.1 42.5

64.4 43.2

66.8 43.9

69.3 44.6

71.8 45.3

57.9 4.1

60.3 4.2

62.7 4.1

65.2 4

67.7 3.9

70.3 3.8

73 3.8

75.7 3.7

78.5 3.6

81.3 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

210.9 0.9

212.6 0.8

214.1 0.7

215.8 0.8

217.8 0.9

219.7 0.9

222.2 1.1

225 1.3

227.3 1

229.1 0.8

10.3 -0.5

10.2 -0.7

10.1 -0.8

10.1 -0.7

10 -0.5

10 -0.3

10 -0.2

9.9 -0.4

9.9 -0.2

9.9 -0.2

200.6 0.9

202.3 0.9

203.9 0.8

205.8 0.9

207.8 1

209.7 0.9

212.2 1.2

215 1.3

217.4 1.1

219.2 0.8

14.9 1.1

15.2 1.7

15.3 0.8

15.4 0.5

15.5 0.7

15.7 1.4

16 2.1

16.3 1.6

16.5 1.2

16.6 0.6

36.3 0.3

36.4 0.2

36.4 0

36.5 0.3

36.5 0.2

36.5 0

36.7 0.4

36.9 0.5

37 0.4

37.1 0.3

5.5 28.1 2.7

5.5 28.1 2.7

5.5 28.1 2.8

5.5 28.2 2.8

5.5 28.2 2.8

5.5 28.3 2.8

5.5 28.4 2.8

5.5 28.5 2.8

5.5 28.7 2.8

5.5 28.8 2.8

3.1 1

3.1 2

3.2 1.8

3.2 1.8

3.3 1.7

3.3 1.3

3.4 1.7

3.5 1.8

3.5 2

3.6 2.2

9.1 0.7

9.2 1.4

9.2 0.7

9.3 0.8

9.4 1

9.5 0.9

9.6 1.1

9.7 1

9.8 1

9.9 0.9

29.9 2.5

30.7 2.7

31.4 2.2

32 2

32.8 2.5

33.5 2

34.4 2.7

35.5 3.3

36.4 2.3

37 1.8

42.9 1

43.2 0.8

43.7 1.1

44.3 1.4

45 1.5

45.6 1.4

46.3 1.6

47.1 1.7

47.8 1.5

48.4 1.2

28.8 -0.3

28.7 -0.3

28.6 -0.2

28.7 0.2

28.7 0.2

28.7 0

28.8 0.3

29 0.5

29.1 0.4

29.1 0.2

9.2 1.4

9.3 1

9.3 0.7

9.4 0.7

9.5 0.7

9.5 0.6

9.6 0.4

9.6 0.5

9.7 0.7

9.7 0.6

1.3 0.2

1.3 2

1.3 0.8

1.3 0.7

1.3 0.7

1.4 7.2

1.4 -4.4

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.6

1.4 0.7

25.3 1.1

25.3 0.1

25.5 0.6

25.6 0.6

25.8 0.6

25.9 0.5

26 0.5

26.1 0.5

26.2 0.4

26.4 0.5

709.7 1.4

708 -0.2

717.1 1.3

725.5 1.2

733.6 1.1

741.5 1.1

749.3 1.1

757.3 1.1

765.3 1.1

773.5 1.1

336.9 0.6

335 -0.5

336.5 0.4

339 0.7

342 0.9

345 0.9

348.1 0.9

351.1 0.9

354.2 0.9

357.3 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

44

5.8

5.8

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

5.9

6

6

6

5823 4448 1375

5878 4383 1495

5931 4287 1644

5802 4085 1717

5807 4064 1743

5911 4133 1778

5874 4113 1761

5659 3914 1745

5594 3895 1699

5573 3921 1652

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


D eltona – D aytona B each – O rmond B each

Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

58.1 4.6 19.5 38.5

60.7 4.5 20.4 40.3

63.3 4.3 21.3 42.1

66.2 4.5 22.2 44

69.2 4.6 23.2 46

72.4 4.5 24.2 48.2

75.7 4.6 25.3 50.4

79.1 4.6 26.5 52.7

82.9 4.7 27.8 55.1

86.9 4.8 29.2 57.7

35.9 2.5

36.8 2.4

37.6 2.2

38.5 2.4

39.4 2.4

40.4 2.4

41.4 2.4

42.4 2.5

43.5 2.6

44.7 2.7

74.3 45.9

76.8 46.6

79.3 47.1

82 47.7

84.8 48.3

87.6 48.9

90.7 49.6

93.9 50.3

97.5 51.2

101.4 52.1

84.2 3.6

87.2 3.6

90.3 3.5

93.5 3.6

96.8 3.6

100.2 3.5

103.8 3.5

107.4 3.5

111.3 3.6

115.4 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

230.9 0.8

232.8 0.8

234.6 0.7

236.4 0.8

238.3 0.8

240.2 0.8

242.6 1

245.2 1.1

248.3 1.3

251.6 1.3

9.9 -0.1

9.9 -0.2

9.8 -0.3

9.8 -0.2

9.8 -0.3

9.7 -0.4

9.7 -0.4

9.6 -0.5

9.6 -0.4

9.6 -0.4

221 0.8

223 0.9

224.7 0.8

226.6 0.8

228.5 0.9

230.5 0.9

232.9 1

235.5 1.1

238.7 1.4

242.1 1.4

16.7 0.7

16.8 1

17 0.9

17.2 1

17.4 1.1

17.5 0.7

17.7 1.2

17.9 1.4

18.2 1.3

18.4 1.4

37.3 0.4

37.4 0.4

37.5 0.3

37.7 0.4

37.8 0.2

37.9 0.2

38 0.3

38.1 0.3

38.2 0.5

38.5 0.6

5.5 29 2.8

5.4 29.2 2.8

5.4 29.4 2.7

5.4 29.6 2.7

5.4 29.7 2.7

5.4 29.8 2.7

5.4 29.9 2.6

5.4 30 2.6

5.5 30.2 2.6

5.6 30.3 2.6

3.7 2.4

3.8 2.3

3.9 2.1

3.9 2

4 2

4.1 1.7

4.2 2.4

4.3 2.7

4.4 2.5

4.5 2.4

10 0.8

10 0.8

10.1 0.7

10.2 0.8

10.3 0.7

10.3 0.7

10.4 0.8

10.5 0.8

10.6 0.8

10.7 0.7

37.6 1.7

38.3 1.7

38.9 1.6

39.4 1.3

40 1.5

40.7 1.9

41.7 2.5

42.9 2.7

44.3 3.3

45.8 3.4

48.9 1.1

49.5 1.1

50 1.1

50.7 1.3

51.3 1.3

52 1.3

52.7 1.4

53.5 1.4

54.3 1.5

55.1 1.5

29.2 0.3

29.3 0.3

29.4 0.2

29.5 0.3

29.5 0.2

29.5 0

29.6 0.1

29.6 0.1

29.6 0.2

29.7 0.3

9.8 0.5

9.8 0.5

9.9 0.3

9.9 0.3

9.9 0.4

9.9 0.2

10 0.2

10 0.2

10 0.2

10 0.2

1.4 0.8

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.7

1.4 0.6

1.4 0.5

1.5 5

1.4 -3.8

1.5 0.9

1.5 0.4

1.5 1

26.5 0.4

26.6 0.4

26.7 0.4

26.8 0.4

26.9 0.5

27.1 0.5

27.2 0.5

27.4 0.5

27.6 1

27.9 1

781.8 1.1

790.3 1.1

798.9 1.1

807.7 1.1

816.6 1.1

825.6 1.1

834.5 1.1

843.2 1

850.1 0.8

856.9 0.8

360.5 0.9

363.6 0.9

366.6 0.8

369.5 0.8

372.4 0.8

375.1 0.7

377.7 0.7

380 0.6

382.4 0.6

384.7 0.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6

6

6

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.3

5571 3976 1595

5489 3953 1536

5396 3923 1473

5329 3900 1429

5218 3833 1384

5176 3825 1351

5154 3841 1313

5091 3805 1286

5089 3830 1260

5101 3874 1227

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

45


Gainesville

PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 137,981 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 5,960 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• University of Florida – 27,870 • UFHealth – 12,000

• Alachua County School Board – 4,200

• Veterans Affairs Medical Center – 3,500 • City of Gainesville – 2,270

• Publix Supermarkets – 2,160

• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 2,100 • Gator Dining Services – 1,200

• Nationwide Insurance Company – 950 • Wal-Mart Stores – 910

Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 4.6 percent growth, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $38,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.5 percent, the fourth highest of the twelve studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $47,600. Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 10,753.25 million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.4 percent annually, the lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 4.4 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 7.8 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Federal Government and Financial Services sectors will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -1.6 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES County officials dive into annual budget talks

• County officials have begun their discussion for their budget and spending needs. The numbers are all within the same range as last year’s budget, so they aren’t asking for any more money to spend than they did last year, which is called a “continuation budget.” • The county administration officials asked for county officials to find room in their budget to give employees a three percent raise.

• The only area that may not get a raise is the sheriff’s office. Sadie Darnell, Alachua County Sheriff, said that she couldn’t find that much money in her budget for a three percent raise 46

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


G ainesville

for her employees. She will plead with county leaders to give her employees the three percent raise as well.

Source: Gainesville Sun, June 2, 2015

Global artisan shop in Millhopper center to close

• After 24 years, Alternatives Global Marketplace in the Millhopper Square Shopping Center is closing. After stores nearby closed, the owner, Alisa Woofter, said profits went down. • Artisans from Gainesville and beyond sell their merchandise in the store. Women’s crafts from developing countries were featured in the store, which attracted people to come and look for such unusual pieces. • Other owners in the same plaza are urging for more community support because there is a lack of sustainable business in the area. When one shop in a plaza closes others feel the effects from it, and they soon have problems staying open.

Source: Gainesville Sun, June 2, 2015

Meridian hopes to add medical care to mental health services

• A Meridian Behavioral Healthcare center in Gainesville is asking the Legislature for money to start a new program to combine mental health services and medical services. • The CEO of the company, Maggie Labarta, wants to use the funds to help patients who need counseling and treatment for substance abuse and mental health issues. She wants an on-site primary care clinic for these patients.

• With the new on-site care, she plans to bring in a nurse practitioner, clerical staff, and care coordinators. More than half of the people who seek treatment at Meridian don’t have a primary care doctor, so bringing in a nurse will help them get the proper care they need.

Haven Hospice plans expansion in Gainesville

• When the Hospice Care Center in Gainesville first opened in 1997, it was the first nonprofit organization for inpatient care. Now it is beginning to become too small for the amount of patients who come through, so they are planning on adding to the building.

• They are hoping to almost double the amount of rooms and add 19,500 square feet. The cost of the expansion will be more than $7 million. Haven Hospice’s interim president, Jim Poole, is hoping the expansion begins in July or August and should be completed within a year. • Recently, the facility has had to turn away patients because they are at maximum capacity. Along with the expansion of the number of rooms, Poole is planning on adding a patio and porch areas for families and patients to have an area to spend together.

Source: Gainesville Sun, May 14, 2015

City hopes to use Uber to give rides to seniors

• Uber and ElderCare, the organization who runs the Senior Recreation Center, are pairing up to offer low-income senior citizens transportation services. • It will cost between $1 and $5 per ride, depending on the senior’s income. If their income is nonexistent or lower there may be no copay at all.

• The City Commission is ready to move forward with the six month trial. They are funding the first $15,000 of the project.

Source: Gainesville Sun, June 4, 2015

Source: Gainesville Sun, April 10, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

47


Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

20000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

18000.0 16000.0

8.0%

14000.0 12000.0

6.0%

10000.0

4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate

8000.0 6000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

160.0

Gainesville Real Personal Income 15.0%

(percent change year ago)

10.0%

150.0 140.0

5.0%

130.0

0.0%

120.0 110.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Gainesville Payroll Employment 48

2.5

Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

170.0

2

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

-5.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


G ainesville

Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

10.9 4.5 6 5

11.1 4 6.1 5

11.1 4 6.1 5

11.2 3.8 6.2 5

11.4 3.7 6.3 5.1

11.5 3.8 6.3 5.1

11.6 4.1 6.4 5.2

11.7 4.6 6.5 5.2

11.9 5 6.6 5.3

12.1 5.2 6.7 5.4

12.2 5.3 6.7 5.5

12.4 5.2 6.8 5.5

12.5 5.1 6.9 5.6

12.7 5.2 7 5.7

12.9 5.3 7.1 5.8

13 5.2 7.1 5.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

10.1 4.2

10.2 4

10.2 4

10.3 3.4

10.3 2.5

10.4 2.3

10.4 2.4

10.5 2.6

10.7 3

10.7 3.2

10.8 3.4

10.9 3.3

11 3

11.1 3.1

11.1 3.2

11.2 3.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.8 36.7

40.1 36.8

40.3 36.9

40.5 37

40.9 37.2

41.2 37.3

41.6 37.5

42 37.7

42.6 38

43 38.2

43.4 38.4

43.9 38.6

44.4 38.9

44.9 39.1

45.4 39.3

45.8 39.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

44.4 1.7

44.8 1.9

45.2 2.9

45.6 3.4

46 3.6

46.4 3.6

46.9 3.6

47.3 3.7

47.7 3.7

48.2 3.7

48.6 3.8

49.1 3.8

49.6 3.9

50.1 4

50.6 4

51.1 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

134.1 3.2

134.8 3.1

135.2 2.6

135.5 1.5

135.8 1.3

136.1 1

136.5 0.9

136.8 1

137.1 1

137.5 1

137.8 1

138.1 1

138.3 0.8

138.6 0.8

138.9 0.7

139 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

4.2 0.7

4.2 1.2

4.2 0.2

4.2 0.3

4.2 0.7

4.2 0.5

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.9

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.6

4.3 0.5

4.3 0.3

4.3 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

129.9 3.2

130.5 3.2

131 2.6

131.2 1.6

131.5 1.3

131.9 1

132.2 0.9

132.5 1

132.9 1

133.2 1

133.6 1

133.8 1

134 0.8

134.3 0.8

134.6 0.7

134.7 0.7

4.7 9.3

4.7 9

4.8 7.6

4.8 8.2

4.9 6.1

5 7.8

5.2 8.7

5.3 9.7

5.4 9.9

5.5 9.7

5.6 8.9

5.7 7.7

5.8 6.7

5.9 6.1

5.9 5.5

6 4.6

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

19.5 6.2

19.7 5.5

19.8 4.2

19.8 2.5

19.8 1.1

19.7 0.3

19.7 -0.5

19.7 -0.7

19.6 -0.6

19.7 -0.4

19.7 0

19.7 0.2

19.7 0.2

19.6 -0.1

19.6 -0.5

19.6 -0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

2.9 14.1 2.6

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.9 14.1 2.7

2.9 14.1 2.7

2.9 14 2.7

2.9 14 2.8

3 13.9 2.8

3 13.9 2.8

3 13.9 2.8

3 13.8 2.8

3 13.8 2.8

3 13.7 2.8

3 13.7 2.9

3 13.6 2.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 6.4

1.6 6.8

1.6 6.4

1.6 3.5

1.6 1

1.6 0.1

1.6 -0.1

1.6 -0.6

1.6 2

1.6 2.7

1.6 2.2

1.6 2

1.6 0.2

1.6 -0.6

1.6 -0.3

1.6 -0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

6.3 2

6.3 0.8

6.4 3.1

6.4 2

6.4 1.3

6.4 0.4

6.3 -0.4

6.3 -0.7

6.3 -1

6.3 -1.2

6.3 -1.4

6.2 -1.5

6.2 -1.6

6.2 -1.5

6.2 -1.5

6.1 -1.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

13 8.9

13.1 6.3

13.2 3.8

13.5 3.8

13.7 5.5

13.9 5.6

14 6

14.2 5.3

14.3 4.8

14.4 4.1

14.5 3.2

14.5 2.3

14.6 1.5

14.6 1.2

14.6 1

14.6 0.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

24.7 5.2

24.8 4.6

24.9 4.4

24.9 2.8

25 1.1

25.1 1.3

25.3 1.3

25.3 1.7

25.3 1.3

25.4 0.8

25.4 0.6

25.4 0.5

25.4 0.5

25.5 0.6

25.6 0.7

25.6 0.7

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

14.1 0

14.1 3.1

14.1 3.7

14.1 -1.3

14.1 0.6

14.1 -0.1

14.1 -0.4

14.1 -0.5

14.1 -0.5

14.1 0.1

14.2 0.6

14.2 1

14.2 0.9

14.2 1

14.3 0.8

14.3 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

4.3 4.7

4.4 5.6

4.4 3.3

4.4 2.4

4.4 1

4.4 0.5

4.4 0.2

4.4 0

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.6

4.4 -0.7

4.3 -0.8

4.3 -0.6

4.3 -0.4

4.4 -0.1

4.4 0.1

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

4.5 0.6

4.5 -0.2

4.5 -0.9

4.4 -0.5

4.4 -1.7

4.4 -2.3

4.4 -2.2

4.3 -2.2

4.3 -2

4.3 -1.9

4.3 -1.9

4.3 -1.9

4.2 -2

4.2 -2.1

4.2 -2

4.2 -1.9

37.3 -0.5

37.3 -0.2

37.3 -0.6

37.3 -0.3

37.3 0

37.3 -0.2

37.3 -0.1

37.3 0.1

37.4 0.4

37.5 0.8

37.6 1.1

37.8 1.2

37.9 1.2

38 1.3

38.2 1.4

38.3 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

275.3 1

276 0.9

276.6 0.9

277.2 0.9

277.8 0.9

278.3 0.9

278.8 0.8

279.3 0.8

279.9 0.8

280.5 0.8

281.1 0.8

281.7 0.8

282.2 0.8

282.8 0.8

283.4 0.8

284 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

138 0.5

139 1.3

140.1 1.9

140.9 1.8

141.7 2.6

142.4 2.5

143.2 2.2

143.9 2.1

144.5 2

145.1 1.9

145.8 1.8

146.3 1.7

146.7 1.5

147.1 1.4

147.6 1.3

148 1.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

704 466 238

753 514 239

899 569 330

1017 595 421

1123 619 504

1171 636 535

1200 665 534

1271 725 546

1308 751 557

1325 762 563

1341 768 572

1349 772 578

1371 789 582

1378 802 576

1389 801 587

1388 795 594

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49


Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

9 5 5.1 3.9

9.4 3.4 5.2 4.1

9 -3.5 5.2 3.9

9.4 4.3 5.2 4.2

9.9 5.3 5.3 4.7

10 1.1 5.4 4.6

10.3 2.3 5.6 4.7

10.7 3.9 5.8 4.9

9.3 2.4

9.4 0.4

9 -3.5

9.3 2.6

9.5 2.8

9.5 -0.8

9.6 1.1

9.8 2.5

34.9 35.9

35.7 35.7

34.3 34.3

35.5 35

37.2 35.7

37.3 35.2

37.9 35.3

38.9 35.8

38.2 3.3

39.1 2.4

40.3 3

40.8 1.3

41.4 1.5

42.2 1.9

43 2.1

43.9 2.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

133.9 1.4

133.2 -0.5

127.4 -4.4

126.7 -0.6

126.7 0

128 1.1

128.9 0.7

131.5 2

5.8 2

5.6 -4.3

4.7 -16

4.4 -5.7

4.4 -1

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.2

4.2 -4.7

128.1 1.3

127.6 -0.3

122.7 -3.9

122.3 -0.4

122.3 0

123.6 1.1

124.5 0.7

127.3 2.2

6.5 0.9

5.7 -13.2

4.6 -18.3

4.2 -9

3.8 -8.7

4.3 10.5

4.4 2.6

4.4 0

20.1 4

19.5 -2.8

18.2 -6.8

17.9 -1.6

18 1

18.1 0.6

18.3 0.9

18.8 2.9

2.6 14.9 2.6

2.6 14.2 2.7

2.4 13.3 2.4

2.3 13.2 2.3

2.4 13.4 2.3

2.5 13.3 2.4

2.7 13.2 2.5

2.8 13.5 2.6

2 2.6

1.9 -7

1.6 -13.8

1.5 -6.7

1.5 -0.5

1.5 -2.9

1.5 1.2

1.5 2.8

6.4 -0.6

6.2 -3.4

6 -3.1

6 -0.4

6.1 1.9

6.3 3.6

6.2 -1.9

6.2 0

10.6 -4.5

10.7 1.8

10.3 -3.9

10.4 0.6

10.8 3.6

11.3 4.5

11.4 1.3

12.5 9.6

21.3 -0.8

21.9 2.9

21.9 0.1

22.1 0.8

22.4 1.1

22.8 2.2

23.1 1.1

23.8 3.1

14.2 4

14.7 3.6

13.6 -7.1

13.2 -3

13.3 0.7

13.4 0.7

13.8 2.9

13.9 0.8

4.5 4

4.5 -0.6

4.2 -6.5

4.1 -2.8

4.1 0.6

4.1 -1.6

4.1 0.4

4.2 3.1

3.8 3.1

4 5.2

4.3 5.4

4.7 10.9

4.4 -6.2

4.4 -1.2

4.4 0.8

4.5 1.5

38.6 1.8

38.5 -0.3

37.9 -1.5

38.1 0.6

37.8 -0.9

37.5 -0.7

37.4 -0.3

37.4 0.2

259.5 1.4

261.9 0.9

263.6 0.7

265 0.5

266.9 0.7

268.8 0.7

270.7 0.7

273.7 1.1

132.8 3.7

134.7 1.5

133.4 -1

135.3 1.4

135.8 0.4

136.8 0.7

136.2 -0.4

137.6 1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3

4.5

7.2

8.2

7.7

6.8

5.8

5.3

1451 769 682

1057 519 538

512 364 148

511 407 104

447 300 147

577 400 177

760 549 211

729 506 223


G ainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

11.1 4.1 6.1 5

11.5 4 6.4 5.2

12.1 5.2 6.7 5.4

12.8 5.2 7 5.8

13.4 5.2 7.4 6.1

14.1 5.1 7.7 6.4

14.8 4.6 8.1 6.6

15.4 4.5 8.5 6.9

16.1 4.6 8.9 7.2

16.9 4.5 9.3 7.5

10.2 3.9

10.4 2.4

10.8 3.2

11.1 3.1

11.5 3.2

11.9 3.5

12.2 2.8

12.5 2.5

12.8 2.5

13.1 2.5

40.1 36.9

41.4 37.4

43.2 38.3

45.1 39.2

47.1 40.1

49.1 41.2

51 42.1

52.9 42.8

54.9 43.6

57 44.4

45 2.5

46.7 3.6

48.4 3.8

50.4 4

52.5 4.2

54.6 4.1

56.9 4.1

59.2 4

61.5 4

64 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

134.9 2.6

136.3 1

137.6 1

138.7 0.8

139.7 0.7

141.2 1.1

142.4 0.8

143.6 0.9

144.6 0.7

145.3 0.5

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.6

4.3 0.7

4.3 0.4

4.3 0.1

4.3 -0.2

4.3 -0.3

4.3 0

4.3 -0.1

4.3 -0.3

130.7 2.6

132 1.1

133.4 1

134.4 0.8

135.4 0.8

136.9 1.1

138.1 0.8

139.3 0.9

140.3 0.7

141 0.5

4.7 8.5

5.1 8.1

5.6 9

5.9 5.7

6.1 3

6.2 2.4

6.3 2.1

6.4 1.3

6.5 1.1

6.6 0.8

19.7 4.6

19.7 0.1

19.7 -0.2

19.6 -0.3

19.5 -0.7

19.4 -0.2

19.4 0

19.4 -0.2

19.3 -0.4

19.2 -0.7

2.9 14.2 2.7

2.9 14 2.7

3 13.9 2.8

3 13.7 2.8

3 13.5 2.9

3.1 13.4 2.9

3.1 13.4 2.9

3.1 13.4 2.9

3.1 13.3 2.9

3.1 13.2 2.9

1.6 5.7

1.6 0.1

1.6 2.2

1.6 -0.2

1.6 0

1.7 1.5

1.7 2.2

1.7 2.1

1.8 1.7

1.8 1.5

6.3 2

6.3 0.2

6.3 -1.3

6.2 -1.5

6.1 -0.6

6.1 0.1

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.7

6.2 0.5

6.3 0.4

13.2 5.6

13.9 5.6

14.4 3.6

14.6 1.1

14.8 1.6

15.3 2.9

15.7 3

16.2 2.7

16.5 2.2

16.8 1.6

24.8 4.3

25.2 1.4

25.4 0.8

25.5 0.6

25.8 0.9

26 1.1

26.2 0.7

26.4 0.6

26.5 0.5

26.6 0.2

14.1 1.4

14.1 -0.1

14.1 0.3

14.3 0.8

14.3 0.4

14.3 0.1

14.3 0.2

14.3 -0.3

14.2 -0.6

14.1 -0.5

4.4 4

4.4 0.4

4.4 -0.6

4.3 -0.2

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.3

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.1

4.4 0.1

4.4 0.2

4.5 -0.3

4.4 -2.1

4.3 -1.9

4.2 -2

4.1 -1.4

4.3 3.9

4.2 -3.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.4

37.3 -0.4

37.3 -0.1

37.6 0.9

38.1 1.4

38.7 1.5

39.1 1.2

39.6 1.1

40.2 1.5

40.7 1.4

41.2 1.2

276.3 0.9

278.6 0.8

280.8 0.8

283.1 0.8

285.4 0.8

287.7 0.8

289.8 0.7

291.9 0.7

294 0.7

296 0.7

139.5 1.4

142.8 2.4

145.4 1.8

147.3 1.3

148.4 0.7

149.1 0.5

150.1 0.7

151.3 0.8

152.3 0.6

152.7 0.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.7

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

843 536 307

1191 661 530

1331 763 568

1382 797 585

1405 805 601

1432 816 616

1439 813 626

1445 818 626

1455 822 633

1457 833 624

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

51


Gainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2015

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

17.6 4.5 9.8 7.8

18.6 5.5 10.2 8.4

19.5 4.7 10.7 8.8

20.4 4.6 11.2 9.2

21.3 4.5 11.7 9.6

22.2 4.5 12.2 10

23.2 4.5 12.8 10.5

24.3 4.7 13.4 11

25.5 4.6 13.9 11.5

26.6 4.5 14.5 12.1

13.5 2.6

13.8 2.2

14.1 2.6

14.5 2.5

14.9 2.5

15.2 2.5

15.6 2.4

16 2.6

16.4 2.5

16.8 2.4

59.1 45.2

62.7 46.4

65.2 47.4

67.8 48.3

70.5 49.2

73.2 50.1

76.1 51

79.2 52.1

82.4 53.1

85.6 54.1

66.6 4

69.4 4.2

72.3 4.2

75.3 4.1

78.3 4

81.4 3.9

84.6 3.9

87.9 3.9

91.2 3.8

94.6 3.8

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

146.1 0.6

146.7 0.4

147.2 0.4

147.9 0.5

148.7 0.5

149.6 0.6

150.4 0.5

151.5 0.8

152.4 0.6

152.9 0.4

4.2 -0.4

4.2 -0.6

4.2 -0.8

4.2 -0.6

4.1 -0.4

4.1 -0.2

4.1 -0.1

4.1 -0.3

4.1 -0.2

4.1 -0.1

141.9 0.6

142.5 0.5

143.1 0.4

143.8 0.5

144.6 0.6

145.5 0.6

146.2 0.5

147.4 0.8

148.2 0.6

148.8 0.4

6.6 0.9

6.7 1.3

6.7 0.6

6.8 0.3

6.8 0.5

6.9 1.2

7 2

7.1 1.4

7.2 1

7.2 0.4

19.1 -0.2

19.1 -0.4

19 -0.5

18.9 -0.3

18.8 -0.4

18.7 -0.6

18.7 -0.2

18.7 -0.2

18.6 -0.2

18.5 -0.4

3.1 13.1 2.9

3.1 13.1 2.9

3.1 13 2.9

3.1 12.9 2.9

3.1 12.9 2.9

3 12.8 2.9

3 12.8 2.9

3 12.8 2.8

3 12.8 2.8

2.9 12.8 2.8

1.8 0.6

1.8 1.1

1.8 1.3

1.9 1.3

1.9 1.2

1.9 0.8

1.9 1.2

1.9 1.3

2 1.5

2 1.7

6.3 0.3

6.3 0.7

6.3 0.2

6.4 0.3

6.4 0.4

6.4 0.4

6.5 0.6

6.5 0.5

6.5 0.5

6.6 0.4

17.1 2.1

17.5 2.3

17.8 1.8

18.1 1.6

18.5 2

18.8 1.6

19.2 2.2

19.7 2.9

20.1 1.9

20.4 1.3

26.6 0.3

26.7 0.1

26.7 0.3

26.9 0.6

27.1 0.7

27.3 0.6

27.5 0.8

27.8 1

28 0.7

28.1 0.4

14.1 -0.5

14 -0.5

14 -0.4

13.9 -0.1

13.9 0

13.9 -0.2

13.9 0.1

14 0.2

14 0.1

14 0

4.4 0.8

4.4 0.2

4.4 0.1

4.4 0.1

4.5 0.1

4.5 0

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.1

4.4 0.1

4.4 0

4.1 -0.2

4.1 0.6

4.1 0.1

4.1 0

4.1 0

4.4 6.4

4.2 -5.1

4.2 0

4.2 -0.1

4.2 0

41.6 1.1

41.8 0.4

42.1 0.5

42.3 0.6

42.5 0.6

42.7 0.5

42.9 0.4

43.1 0.4

43.3 0.4

43.5 0.4

298 0.7

296.7 -0.4

298.4 0.6

300.2 0.6

302 0.6

303.7 0.6

305.4 0.6

307.2 0.6

308.9 0.6

310.6 0.6

152.6 0

151.2 -0.9

151 -0.2

151.2 0.1

151.6 0.3

152 0.3

152.4 0.3

152.8 0.2

153.2 0.3

153.6 0.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

52

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

1444 823 621

1482 807 675

1528 783 745

1520 738 782

1529 729 800

1559 739 821

1551 731 820

1509 687 822

1493 679 814

1486 680 805

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


G ainesville

Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

27.8 4.4 15.1 12.6

29 4.3 15.7 13.2

30.2 4.2 16.4 13.8

31.5 4.3 17 14.4

32.8 4.3 17.7 15.1

34.2 4.4 18.5 15.8

35.7 4.3 19.2 16.5

37.3 4.4 20.1 17.3

39 4.6 21 18.1

40.8 4.7 21.9 18.9

17.2 2.3

17.6 2.2

17.9 2

18.3 2.2

18.7 2.2

19.1 2.2

19.5 2.2

20 2.3

20.5 2.5

21 2.5

88.9 55

92.2 55.9

95.5 56.7

99.1 57.6

102.8 58.6

106.7 59.5

110.7 60.5

115.1 61.7

119.9 62.9

124.9 64.2

98.1 3.7

101.8 3.7

105.5 3.7

109.5 3.7

113.5 3.7

117.7 3.7

122.1 3.7

126.5 3.6

131.2 3.7

136.1 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

153.5 0.4

154.1 0.4

154.5 0.3

155.1 0.3

155.7 0.4

156.4 0.5

157.1 0.4

158 0.6

159.3 0.8

160.6 0.9

4.1 -0.1

4.1 -0.2

4.1 -0.3

4.1 -0.2

4.1 -0.2

4.1 -0.4

4 -0.3

4 -0.5

4 -0.3

4 -0.3

149.4 0.4

150 0.4

150.5 0.3

151 0.4

151.6 0.4

152.4 0.5

153 0.4

154 0.6

155.3 0.8

156.6 0.9

7.2 0.4

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.6

7.4 0.8

7.5 0.9

7.5 0.5

7.6 1.1

7.7 1.2

7.8 1.1

7.9 1.2

18.5 -0.3

18.4 -0.3

18.3 -0.5

18.3 -0.3

18.2 -0.5

18.1 -0.5

18 -0.4

18 -0.4

17.9 -0.2

17.9 -0.1

2.9 12.8 2.8

2.9 12.8 2.7

2.8 12.8 2.7

2.8 12.8 2.6

2.8 12.8 2.6

2.8 12.8 2.6

2.7 12.8 2.5

2.7 12.7 2.5

2.8 12.7 2.5

2.8 12.7 2.4

2 1.8

2.1 1.8

2.1 1.6

2.1 1.5

2.2 1.5

2.2 1.2

2.2 1.8

2.3 2.2

2.3 2

2.4 1.9

6.6 0.3

6.6 0.2

6.6 0.2

6.6 0.3

6.6 0.2

6.6 0.2

6.7 0.3

6.7 0.3

6.7 0.3

6.7 0.2

20.6 1.2

20.9 1.3

21.1 1.1

21.3 0.9

21.6 1.1

21.9 1.4

22.3 2.1

22.8 2.3

23.5 2.9

24.2 3

28.2 0.3

28.2 0.3

28.3 0.4

28.5 0.5

28.6 0.6

28.8 0.5

29 0.6

29.2 0.7

29.4 0.8

29.6 0.7

14 0.1

14 0

14 -0.1

14 0

14 0

14 -0.2

13.9 -0.2

13.9 -0.2

13.9 0

13.9 0.1

4.4 -0.1

4.4 -0.1

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -0.3

4.4 -0.2

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.4

4.4 -0.4

4.3 -0.4

4.3 -0.4

4.2 0.1

4.2 0

4.2 0

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.2

4.3 4.3

4.1 -4.5

4.2 0.2

4.1 -0.3

4.2 0.3

43.7 0.4

43.8 0.4

44 0.4

44.2 0.4

44.4 0.4

44.6 0.4

44.8 0.5

45 0.5

45.3 0.7

45.6 0.7

312.3 0.5

314 0.5

315.8 0.6

317.5 0.6

319.3 0.6

321 0.5

322.7 0.5

324.2 0.5

325.5 0.4

326.9 0.4

154.1 0.3

154.5 0.3

154.9 0.2

155.2 0.2

155.5 0.2

155.6 0.1

155.8 0.1

155.8 0

155.8 0

155.8 0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

1482 688 794

1463 682 781

1438 675 762

1425 670 755

1406 657 750

1400 653 747

1392 654 738

1380 647 733

1376 649 727

1371 655 716

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53


Jacksonville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.0 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $42,700, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $53,700. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 65,163.45 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.2 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.3 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 2.8 percent, and then the Educational and Health Services sector with an average growth rate of 2.1 percent. The Federal Government, Financial Services, and Information sectors will experience declines, with average annual growth rates of -0.6, -0.2, and -0.1 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 704,509 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.1% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 36,060 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naval Air Station Jacksonville – 25,240 • Duval County Public Schools – 14,480 • Naval Station Mayport – 9,000 • City of Jacksonville – 8,820

• Baptist Health Systems – 8,270

• Bank of America Merrill Lynch – 8,000 • Florida Blue – 6,500

• Mayo Clinic – 4,970 • Citi – 4,200

• JP Morgan Chase – 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development 54

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Volkswagen shipments begin rolling into JaxPort as part of five-year import deal

• The Jacksonville Port will soon begin receiving new shipments from Volkswagen—Jettas, Golfs, and Bettles—as they just signed a new contract. This new contract will bring in about 100,000 cars for the first year.

• More importantly, around 60 jobs were created just from the first day of shipment of the cars. Over the next few years the number of jobs the contract brings will only continue to grow.

• This large contract will bring in more imports for the Jacksonville port essentially, growing the amount of workers needed to take care of the daily jobs. The port is already one of the largest


J acksonville

in the nation for importing vehicles and vehicle-handling.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, April 29, 2015 New York firm buys three Jacksonville apartment complexes for close to $48 million

• Jacksonville apartment complexes by the airport and a golf course have been snagged by New York brokers. Beachwold Residential is the name of the New York firm who purchased the complexes. The company is planning on spending approximately $2 million on renovations in the apartments.

• The three complexes total to about 750 units and are at 95 percent occupancy. The company hopes the renovations will add more value and potential to the complexes.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, June 2, 2015 Groundwork Jacksonville part of effort to connect parks with network of trails

• Jacksonville is hoping to add some recreational trails through downtown and nearby parks for people to enjoy the fresh air. Groundwork Jacksonville, an environmental nonprofit focus group, along with the city is hoping to connect trails throughout the city and parks for walking and biking.

• Groundwork Jacksonville is trying to connect the Greenway and the S-Line Trail. Benches, shade, and landscape will be other key aspects to the project coming together as a whole. Once a design is finalized it will be presented to the Parks and Recreation Department for construction and funding information.

Jacksonville company gets OK from FAA to make money off commercial drones

• A company out of Jacksonville, Aviation Systems Engineering Co., has been waiting for approval from the Federal Aviation Administration for years so they can begin their offering of drones for commercial services.

• The company has a found a need for the drones for a few professional services like heavy industrial use, pipeline inspections, train track observations, and agricultural monitoring. The drones can be used on a smaller scale for real estate to show properties.

• The FAA has concerns that if they loosen regulations, there would be hundreds or thousands of drones in the air, threatening aircraft carrying passengers. Some drones carry cameras to monitor different activities, which gave them another reason to worry about privacy issues for residential areas.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, June 2, 2015

Riverwalk hotel is not a Wyndham any more after $9 million purchase • For two years, the hotel has been under contract multiple times, but all of them fell through. The hotel first opened in 1981 as a Sheraton and has since changed owners many times. • Most recently, Vantage Hospitality Group of Coral Gables bought the 323-room hotel for $9 million. • The company is planning to renovate the hotel.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, June 4, 2015

• Most importantly, these pathways and trails will be used by children going to and from school, parks, and other community facilities. These trails will encourage citizens to come outside more often and use the facilities given to them by their community.

Source: The Florida Times-Union, May 26, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

55


Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

(percent)

160000.0

10.0%

140000.0

8.0%

120000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

80000.0

4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate

Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands)

900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Jacksonville Payroll Employment 56

1.4

100000.0

6.0%

1000.0

1.2

Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product

Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

1

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

60000.0 40000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Jacksonville Real Personal Income

(percent change year ago) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


J acksonville

Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

64.3 4.2 32.5 31.8

64.9 3.8 32.9 32

65.5 3.8 33.3 32.2

66.1 3.7 33.8 32.3

67 4.2 34.2 32.8

67.7 4.4 34.6 33.1

68.6 4.7 35.1 33.5

69.6 5.3 35.5 34

70.7 5.6 36 34.7

71.7 5.8 36.5 35.2

72.7 5.9 37 35.6

73.6 5.8 37.5 36.1

74.7 5.7 38 36.8

75.8 5.7 38.4 37.3

76.8 5.7 38.9 37.9

77.8 5.6 39.4 38.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

59.2 3.9

59.7 3.8

60 3.8

60.4 3.3

61 3

61.4 2.9

61.8 3

62.4 3.2

63.2 3.6

63.7 3.8

64.2 3.9

64.8 3.9

65.4 3.6

66 3.6

66.6 3.6

67.1 3.6

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

44.8 41.3

45.1 41.4

45.3 41.5

45.5 41.6

46 41.9

46.3 42

46.8 42.1

47.3 42.4

47.9 42.8

48.3 43

48.8 43.2

49.3 43.4

49.9 43.6

50.4 43.9

50.8 44.1

51.3 44.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.3 1

50.6 1.5

51.1 2.5

51.5 2.8

51.9 3.3

52.4 3.4

52.8 3.4

53.3 3.5

53.8 3.5

54.2 3.6

54.7 3.7

55.2 3.7

55.8 3.7

56.3 3.8

56.9 3.9

57.4 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

631.1 2.4

634.8 2.3

638.1 2.1

641.1 1.7

644.1 2.1

647.2 2

650.1 1.9

653 1.9

656.1 1.9

659.1 1.8

661.9 1.8

664.6 1.8

666.3 1.6

668.3 1.4

670.2 1.2

671.7 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

27.9 1.4

28 0.9

28 0

28.1 -0.1

28.1 0.8

28.1 0.4

28.2 0.6

28.2 0.4

28.3 0.5

28.3 0.7

28.4 0.6

28.4 0.6

28.4 0.5

28.4 0.5

28.4 0.3

28.5 0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

603.2 2.4

606.8 2.3

610.1 2.2

613 1.8

616 2.1

619.1 2

621.9 1.9

624.7 1.9

627.8 1.9

630.8 1.9

633.6 1.9

636.2 1.8

637.9 1.6

639.9 1.4

641.7 1.3

643.2 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

33.2 3.6

33.5 3.2

33.9 3.6

34.4 4.5

34.9 5.2

35.5 6

36 6.4

37 7.6

37.8 8.1

38.6 8.9

39.4 9.4

40.1 8.5

40.8 7.9

41.4 7.1

41.9 6.2

42.3 5.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

133 3.2

134.1 4

135.2 4.2

135.7 3.7

135.8 2.2

136.2 1.5

136.4 0.9

136.6 0.6

136.9 0.8

137.5 1

138.1 1.3

138.6 1.5

138.9 1.4

139.1 1.1

139.1 0.7

139.2 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

24 76.3 32.7

24.2 76.9 33

24.5 77.4 33.3

24.7 77.4 33.6

24.7 77.2 33.8

24.9 77.1 34.1

25 77 34.3

25.1 76.8 34.5

25.3 76.6 34.8

25.4 76.7 35.1

25.7 76.9 35.4

25.9 76.8 35.7

26 76.7 35.9

26.1 76.6 36.1

26.3 76.4 36.2

26.4 76.2 36.2

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

8.9 -4.4

9 -3.4

9 -2.5

9 -1.2

8.9 0.4

8.9 -0.3

8.9 -0.4

8.9 -0.8

9.1 2

9.2 2.9

9.2 2.5

9.2 2.5

9.2 0.7

9.2 0

9.2 0.3

9.2 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

61 -0.3

61.3 0.1

61.6 0.7

61.7 0.4

61.8 1.3

61.8 0.8

61.8 0.3

61.7 0.1

61.7 -0.2

61.5 -0.4

61.3 -0.7

61.2 -0.8

61.1 -0.9

60.9 -0.9

60.8 -0.9

60.7 -0.9

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

97.3 1.2

97.7 0.8

98.2 -0.9

99.8 0

101.3 4.1

102.8 5.2

104.1 5.9

105.2 5.4

106.5 5.1

107.2 4.3

107.7 3.4

108.2 2.8

108.6 2

109 1.7

109.4 1.6

109.7 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

95.3 3.3

96 2.8

96.6 3.1

96.7 2.2

97.4 2.2

98.4 2.6

99 2.5

99.6 2.9

99.8 2.5

100.2 1.8

100.6 1.6

101 1.5

101.1 1.4

101.6 1.4

102.1 1.5

102.5 1.4

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

78.2 5

78.7 4.4

79 4.1

79.2 3.1

79.4 1.5

79.2 0.7

79.3 0.4

79.4 0.2

79.6 0.3

79.9 0.9

80.4 1.4

80.9 1.9

81.1 1.8

81.3 1.7

81.6 1.4

81.9 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22.4 4.6

22.6 4.1

22.6 4.1

22.7 2.2

22.7 1.4

22.8 0.9

22.8 0.6

22.8 0.4

22.8 0.2

22.8 0.1

22.8 0.1

22.8 0.2

22.9 0.4

22.9 0.6

23 0.8

23.1 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

17.3 3.1

17.4 2.7

17.3 2.3

17.2 0.7

17.1 -1.1

17.1 -1.7

17 -1.6

16.9 -1.7

16.9 -1.5

16.8 -1.4

16.8 -1.4

16.7 -1.5

16.6 -1.6

16.6 -1.7

16.5 -1.6

16.4 -1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

56.6 0.2

56.6 -0.4

56.6 -0.2

56.5 -1.2

56.5 -0.1

56.5 -0.2

56.5 -0.1

56.6 0.2

56.8 0.6

57 0.9

57.2 1.3

57.5 1.5

57.7 1.5

57.9 1.6

58.2 1.6

58.4 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1435.6 1.6

1440.9 1.5

1446.1 1.5

1451.3 1.5

1456.7 1.5

1461.9 1.5

1467.2 1.5

1472.5 1.5

1477.9 1.5

1483.1 1.5

1488.5 1.5

1493.9 1.4

1499.2 1.4

1504.6 1.4

1510.1 1.5

1515.6 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

718 -0.1

721.3 0.4

725.3 0.8

728.5 1

732 1.9

735.3 1.9

739.1 1.9

742.7 1.9

746 1.9

749.3 1.9

753 1.9

756.3 1.8

759.4 1.8

762.4 1.7

765.6 1.7

768.7 1.6

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.1

5

5

4.9

4.9

5

5

5

5.1

5.1

5.1

8194 6441 1753

8318 6391 1926

9183 6738 2446

9702 6805 2897

10102 6878 3224

10354 6907 3447

10624 7107 3516

11212 7554 3658

11466 7782 3685

11498 7830 3667

11570 7878 3692

11674 7928 3746

11873 8103 3770

12003 8245 3758

12122 8256 3866

12170 8222 3948

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

57


Jacksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

53.2 4 29 24.2

53.8 1.2 28.7 25.1

51.3 -4.7 27.3 24.1

53.3 3.8 27.7 25.5

55.7 4.5 28.5 27.2

59.1 6.1 29.8 29.3

60.2 1.9 30.5 29.7

62.7 4.3 31.8 30.9

54.8 1.5

53.8 -1.8

51.3 -4.6

52.4 2.1

53.5 2

55.7 4.2

56.1 0.6

57.7 2.9

40.7 41.9

40.7 40.6

38.4 38.4

39.4 38.8

40.8 39.2

42.8 40.3

43 40.1

44.1 40.6

44.4 2.7

44.9 1.3

45.3 0.8

46.3 2.4

47.2 1.7

48.7 3.3

49 0.5

49.9 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

631 1.4

618.5 -2

583.5 -5.7

579.9 -0.6

586.1 1.1

594.5 1.4

608 2.3

623.1 2.5

33.1 -2.2

32.4 -1.9

29.2 -9.9

27.5 -6.1

27.4 -0.2

27.9 1.7

27.8 -0.2

27.9 0.2

597.9 1.6

586.1 -2

554.3 -5.4

552.5 -0.3

558.7 1.1

566.6 1.4

580.2 2.4

595.3 2.6

49.8 -1.7

43.6 -12.5

33.4 -23.4

29.2 -12.7

27.5 -5.6

27.8 1.1

30.2 8.5

32.5 7.7

139.2 1.7

136.3 -2.1

126.9 -6.9

124.4 -2

124.1 -0.2

125.4 1.1

127.8 1.9

129.6 1.4

30.2 76.5 32.5

28.6 75.4 32.2

26.7 69.5 30.7

25.6 68.7 30

24.8 69 30.3

24.7 70.2 30.5

24.7 71.6 31.5

24 73.1 32.5

10.2 -8.5

10.2 0.7

10.3 1.2

10.2 -1.7

9.6 -5.7

9.2 -4

9.2 -0.6

9.2 0.8

60.1 0.5

59.7 -0.7

55.7 -6.7

55.7 -0.1

58 4.1

60 3.5

61.5 2.4

61.3 -0.3

90.6 -1.2

84.3 -6.9

79.4 -5.7

82.3 3.7

87.5 6.3

91 3.9

94 3.4

98 4.3

77.9 4.5

81.7 4.9

83.7 2.5

85.7 2.4

87.8 2.4

89.2 1.6

91.3 2.3

93.5 2.4

66.5 6

67.9 2.1

65.3 -3.8

65 -0.4

66.3 2

69 4.1

71.8 4.1

75.6 5.3

27.5 2

25.8 -6.1

23.2 -10.1

23 -0.9

21.6 -6

20.3 -5.9

20.6 1.5

21.8 5.6

17 0.6

17.1 0.6

17.5 2.3

18 2.9

17.3 -3.9

17.3 -0.4

17 -1.5

16.9 -0.4

59.1 3.6

59.5 0.6

58.8 -1.1

59 0.4

59.1 0.2

57.4 -3

56.9 -0.9

56.8 -0.1

1308.2 1.8

1324 1.2

1336.9 1

1350.9 1

1364.2 1

1381 1.2

1399.3 1.3

1421.9 1.6

684.4 4.1

694.7 1.5

688.5 -0.9

697.2 1.3

701.4 0.6

704.7 0.5

710.7 0.9

719.5 1.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

58

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.7

5.8

9.8

10.8

9.7

8.3

7.1

6.2

10474 7538 2936

7073 5197 1876

4939 3403 1536

3724 3572 151

3593 3192 402

6405 4570 1834

7269 6171 1098

7786 6495 1291


J acksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

65.2 3.9 33.1 32.1

68.2 4.7 34.9 33.4

72.2 5.8 36.8 35.4

76.3 5.7 38.7 37.6

80.6 5.7 40.8 39.8

85.1 5.6 43.1 42.1

89.5 5.1 45.4 44.1

93.9 4.9 47.8 46.1

98.6 5 50.3 48.3

103.4 4.9 52.7 50.6

59.8 3.7

61.6 3

64 3.8

66.3 3.6

68.7 3.7

71.5 4

73.9 3.3

76 3

78.3 2.9

80.5 2.9

45.2 41.5

46.6 42.1

48.6 43.1

50.6 44

52.7 44.9

54.9 46.1

56.9 46.9

58.8 47.6

60.9 48.3

62.9 49

50.9 1.9

52.6 3.4

54.5 3.6

56.6 3.9

58.9 4.1

61.3 4

63.7 4

66.2 3.9

68.8 3.9

71.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

636.3 2.1

648.6 1.9

660.4 1.8

669.1 1.3

677.4 1.2

688.6 1.7

698.8 1.5

708.3 1.4

716.4 1.1

723 0.9

28 0.6

28.2 0.5

28.3 0.6

28.4 0.4

28.5 0.1

28.4 -0.3

28.2 -0.5

28.2 -0.3

28.1 -0.3

27.9 -0.4

608.2 2.2

620.4 2

632.1 1.9

640.7 1.4

648.9 1.3

660.2 1.7

670.5 1.6

680.2 1.4

688.4 1.2

695 1

33.7 3.7

35.9 6.3

39 8.7

41.6 6.6

43.1 3.7

44.4 3.1

45.7 2.9

46.6 2.1

47.5 1.8

48.2 1.5

134.5 3.8

136.2 1.3

137.8 1.1

139.1 0.9

139.5 0.3

140.4 0.7

141.5 0.7

142.3 0.6

142.7 0.3

142.7 0

24.3 77 33.1

24.9 77 34.2

25.6 76.8 35.3

26.2 76.5 36.1

26.7 76 36.4

27.2 76.3 36.6

27.6 76.7 36.9

28 77.1 37.1

28.3 77.2 37.1

28.5 77.1 37.1

9 -2.9

8.9 -0.3

9.2 2.4

9.2 0.3

9.2 0.5

9.4 1.8

9.6 2.6

9.9 2.5

10.1 2

10.3 1.8

61.4 0.2

61.8 0.6

61.4 -0.6

60.9 -0.9

60.9 0

61.3 0.7

62 1.1

62.8 1.3

63.5 1.1

64.1 1.1

98.3 0.3

103.4 5.2

107.4 3.9

109.2 1.7

111.9 2.5

116.2 3.9

120.6 3.8

124.7 3.4

128.1 2.8

130.9 2.2

96.1 2.8

98.6 2.5

100.4 1.8

101.8 1.4

103.5 1.6

105.3 1.8

106.9 1.5

108.3 1.3

109.7 1.3

110.8 1

78.8 4.2

79.3 0.7

80.2 1.1

81.4 1.5

82.3 1

82.9 0.8

83.5 0.7

83.7 0.3

83.7 0

83.8 0.1

22.6 3.7

22.8 0.8

22.8 0.2

23 0.7

23.2 1

23.4 1.1

23.7 1

23.9 0.8

24.1 0.9

24.3 1

17.3 2.2

17 -1.5

16.8 -1.5

16.5 -1.6

16.3 -1.1

16.9 3.6

16.5 -2.5

16.5 -0.1

16.5 0

16.5 0.1

56.6 -0.4

56.5 0

57.2 1.1

58 1.6

59 1.6

59.8 1.3

60.6 1.4

61.6 1.6

62.5 1.5

63.3 1.3

1443.5 1.5

1464.6 1.5

1485.8 1.5

1507.4 1.4

1529.4 1.5

1551.6 1.5

1574.1 1.5

1596.9 1.4

1619.8 1.4

1642.8 1.4

723.3 0.5

737.3 1.9

751.2 1.9

764 1.7

774.3 1.4

784.2 1.3

794.8 1.4

806.2 1.4

817.9 1.4

827.9 1.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.1

5

5.1

5.2

5

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

8849 6594 2255

10573 7112 3461

11552 7854 3698

12042 8206 3836

12447 8391 4056

12829 8595 4234

12930 8587 4342

13008 8685 4323

13001 8729 4272

13068 8890 4178

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59


Jacksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

108.5 4.9 55.4 53.1

114.9 5.9 58.3 56.6

120.8 5.1 61.2 59.7

126.9 5 64.1 62.7

133.1 4.9 67.3 65.8

139.6 4.9 70.5 69.1

146.7 5 74.1 72.6

154.3 5.2 77.8 76.5

162.1 5.1 81.5 80.5

170 4.9 85.2 84.8

83 3.1

85.1 2.6

87.8 3.1

90.3 2.9

92.9 2.9

95.6 2.8

98.4 2.9

101.4 3.1

104.4 3

107.4 2.8

65.1 49.8

68.8 51

71.4 51.9

74 52.7

76.7 53.6

79.5 54.4

82.5 55.3

85.7 56.4

89 57.4

92.3 58.3

74.4 4

77.5 4.1

80.5 3.9

83.6 3.9

86.8 3.8

90 3.7

93.4 3.8

96.7 3.6

100.2 3.6

103.8 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

730.8 1.1

738.5 1.1

745.3 0.9

752.6 1

761 1.1

769.6 1.1

779 1.2

790.4 1.5

799.8 1.2

807.5 1

27.7 -0.7

27.5 -0.9

27.2 -1

27 -0.9

26.8 -0.7

26.7 -0.4

26.6 -0.3

26.5 -0.5

26.4 -0.4

26.3 -0.3

703.1 1.2

711 1.1

718 1

725.6 1.1

734.2 1.2

742.9 1.2

752.4 1.3

763.9 1.5

773.5 1.2

781.2 1

49 1.6

49.9 2

50.6 1.4

51.2 1.1

51.7 1.1

52.7 1.8

54.1 2.6

55.2 2

56.1 1.7

56.6 1

143.4 0.5

143.9 0.3

144.1 0.1

144.5 0.3

144.8 0.3

144.8 0

145.3 0.3

145.8 0.3

146.2 0.3

146.4 0.1

28.7 77.4 37.3

28.8 77.6 37.5

28.9 77.7 37.5

28.9 78 37.6

28.8 78.3 37.7

28.7 78.5 37.6

28.7 79 37.5

28.7 79.6 37.4

28.7 80.2 37.3

28.6 80.7 37

10.4 0.9

10.5 1.5

10.7 1.6

10.9 1.6

11 1.6

11.1 1.1

11.3 1.5

11.5 1.6

11.7 1.8

11.9 2

64.7 0.9

65.6 1.4

66.2 0.9

66.9 1

67.6 1.1

68.4 1.1

69.3 1.3

70.1 1.2

71 1.2

71.7 1.1

134.5 2.7

138.6 3.1

141.9 2.4

145 2.2

148.9 2.7

152.2 2.2

156.7 3

162.3 3.6

166.4 2.6

169.8 2

112 1

112.8 0.8

114 1.1

115.5 1.4

117.2 1.4

118.7 1.3

120.5 1.5

122.5 1.7

124.3 1.4

125.8 1.2

83.9 0.1

83.9 0

84.1 0.2

84.5 0.6

85 0.6

85.4 0.4

86 0.7

86.7 0.8

87.3 0.7

87.9 0.6

24.7 1.6

25 1.1

25.2 0.9

25.4 0.9

25.7 0.9

25.9 0.8

26 0.6

26.2 0.7

26.5 0.9

26.7 0.8

16.6 0.3

16.7 0.8

16.8 0.4

16.8 0.4

16.9 0.3

18 6.8

17.2 -4.8

17.2 0.4

17.3 0.3

17.3 0.3

64 1.2

64 0

64.4 0.6

64.9 0.7

65.3 0.7

65.7 0.6

66.1 0.6

66.4 0.5

66.7 0.5

67.1 0.5

1665.8 1.4

1670.5 0.3

1692 1.3

1713.6 1.3

1735.1 1.3

1756.4 1.2

1777.7 1.2

1799 1.2

1820.2 1.2

1841.5 1.2

837.3 1.1

839.9 0.3

848.4 1

858.5 1.2

869.3 1.3

880 1.2

890.9 1.2

901.8 1.2

913 1.2

924.3 1.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

60

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

12965 8848 4117

13157 8737 4420

13362 8532 4830

13130 8110 5020

13134 8063 5072

13360 8211 5149

13270 8174 5096

12836 7761 5075

12727 7719 5008

12716 7786 4930

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


J acksonville

Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

178.3 4.8 89.1 89.2

186.8 4.8 93.1 93.7

195.4 4.6 97.1 98.3

204.7 4.7 101.4 103.2

214.3 4.7 105.8 108.5

224.5 4.8 110.5 114

235.3 4.8 115.7 119.6

246.7 4.8 121.3 125.5

259 5 127.4 131.5

271.9 5 134.1 137.9

110.3 2.8

113.3 2.7

116.1 2.5

119.1 2.6

122.1 2.5

125.3 2.6

128.7 2.7

132.2 2.7

135.9 2.8

139.8 2.9

95.7 59.2

99.2 60.1

102.6 60.9

106.2 61.8

110 62.7

114 63.6

118.2 64.6

122.6 65.6

127.2 66.8

132.2 68

107.5 3.6

111.3 3.5

115.2 3.5

119.3 3.6

123.4 3.4

127.6 3.4

132.3 3.6

137 3.6

142.1 3.7

147.3 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

814.8 0.9

822.6 1

829.6 0.8

836.7 0.9

844 0.9

852.5 1

861.3 1

871.4 1.2

883.7 1.4

896.9 1.5

26.2 -0.3

26.1 -0.4

26 -0.5

25.9 -0.4

25.8 -0.4

25.6 -0.6

25.5 -0.5

25.3 -0.7

25.2 -0.5

25.1 -0.5

788.6 0.9

796.5 1

803.6 0.9

810.8 0.9

818.2 0.9

826.8 1.1

835.8 1.1

846 1.2

858.5 1.5

871.8 1.6

57.3 1.1

58.1 1.4

58.9 1.3

59.8 1.5

60.7 1.6

61.5 1.2

62.5 1.7

63.7 1.8

64.9 1.9

66.3 2.1

146.5 0.1

146.6 0.1

146.5 -0.1

146.6 0

146.5 0

146.4 -0.1

146.4 0

146.4 0

146.5 0.1

146.9 0.2

28.5 81.4 36.6

28.4 82.1 36.2

28.2 82.7 35.7

28 83.3 35.2

27.9 83.9 34.7

27.9 84.3 34.3

27.9 84.7 33.8

28.1 84.9 33.4

28.5 85.1 32.9

28.8 85.5 32.5

12.2 2.2

12.5 2.1

12.7 1.9

12.9 1.9

13.2 1.8

13.4 1.6

13.7 2.2

14 2.4

14.3 2.1

14.6 2

72.4 1

73.1 0.9

73.8 0.9

74.5 1

75.1 0.8

75.8 0.9

76.4 0.8

77 0.8

77.5 0.7

78.1 0.7

173 1.9

176.4 1.9

179.5 1.8

182.1 1.5

185.3 1.7

189 2

193.9 2.6

199.5 2.9

206.7 3.6

214.5 3.7

127 1

128.5 1.2

129.8 1.1

131.4 1.2

132.8 1.1

134.6 1.3

136.4 1.3

138.1 1.3

139.9 1.3

141.5 1.1

88.5 0.7

89 0.6

89.5 0.5

90.1 0.6

90.6 0.6

91 0.4

91.4 0.5

91.8 0.4

92.3 0.6

92.9 0.6

26.9 0.7

27.1 0.7

27.2 0.5

27.4 0.5

27.5 0.6

27.6 0.4

27.8 0.5

27.9 0.4

28 0.5

28.2 0.5

17.4 0.4

17.5 0.4

17.5 0.3

17.6 0.3

17.6 0.1

18.4 4.6

17.7 -4.1

17.8 0.5

17.7 -0.1

17.8 0.5

67.4 0.5

67.8 0.5

68.1 0.5

68.5 0.5

68.8 0.5

69.2 0.5

69.5 0.5

69.9 0.5

70.5 0.9

71.1 0.9

1862.7 1.2

1883.9 1.1

1905.2 1.1

1926.5 1.1

1947.8 1.1

1969.5 1.1

1991.3 1.1

2013.2 1.1

2035.4 1.1

2057.7 1.1

936.1 1.3

947.7 1.2

958.9 1.2

969.4 1.1

979.8 1.1

990.2 1.1

1000.8 1.1

1011.6 1.1

1022.9 1.1

1034.4 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

12761 7914 4847

12649 7893 4756

12479 7854 4625

12394 7828 4567

12237 7719 4518

12225 7737 4488

12232 7805 4427

12168 7774 4394

12224 7867 4357

12290 7999 4291

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

61


L akeland

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland recently welcomed Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.0 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $34,400, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $46,100. Population growth is expected to average 1.2 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 18,225.23 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.8 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 5.6 percent, the third highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 6.4 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 3.6 percent annual growth, and the Educational and Health Services sector averaging 1.9 percent. The Federal Government sector, Financial Services sector, and Other Services sector will experience declines with average annual growth rates of -1.4, -0.3 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 280,912 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 16,085 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 6,644

• Lakeland Regional Medical Center – 4,540 • City of Lakeland – 2,600 • GEICO – 2,300

• Watson Clinic – 1,600 • GC Services – 1,000 • Rooms To Go – 900

• Saddle Creek Logistics – 625

• Stryker Sustainability Solutions – 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Polk Women Earn More, Still Lag Behind

• Working women in Lakeland saw an increase in median wages for full-time employees. The city ranked 17th on an analysis completed by NerdWallet, a personal finance website, using U.S. Census survey data from 2005 through 2013. Both men and women saw median wages increase within the data range by 16 percent and 9 percent, respectively. • Closing the gap between women’s and men’s wages may not be the reason for the increase, rather the change could be explained by the change in economic conditions of the area within the data range. Male-dominated sectors saw a decrease in availability of jobs while female-dominated sectors, like the Healthcare sector, saw an increase in jobs available.

62

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


L akeland

• Notably, the data used is about three years old now, and Claudia Tritton, a business development director of Lakeland Economic Development Council, says that much has changed within those three years, with the addition of many new businesses to the area.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, April 10, 2015

Solid Growth: Polk’s Jobless Rate Fell to 6.1% In March

• Polk County’s unemployment rate in March saw improvement from last year, decreasing to 6.1 percent. The overall Florida unemployment rate this year in March was 5.5 percent.

• The professional and business services sector of the economy saw the most growth in March out of the ten nonagricultural sectors, seeing a 5.6 percent growth and adding 1,500 jobs to the area. Only two out of the ten nonagricultural sectors saw negative growth: the government sector and “other services.” • Governor Rick Scott has weighed in on the successful job growth stating, “Each new job is an opportunity for a Floridian to achieve their dreams, and families have benefited from more than 40 months of job growth in our state.”

Source: Lakeland Ledger, April 17, 2015

Polk Leads U.S. in Underwater Homes

• RealtyTrac’s U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report for the first quarter of 2015 indicated that Polk County has the highest number of underwater residential properties in the U.S. at 28.7 percent.

• Debbie Miller, president of the Lakeland Association of Realtors, is still optimistic about the local housing market with new business coming in to the area and home prices now steadily climbing as the area recovers from the housing market collapse that hit the LakelandWinter Haven area around 2008.

• Likewise, William Webb, the owner of Webb Home Builders Group, is also optimistic. Webb believes this market is all cyclical, and since

Polk County was hit later than other metro areas, Polk County will statistically recover later based on historic data. Webb stated, “If history repeats itself, we’ll be in good shape.”

Source: Lakeland Ledger, May 7, 2015

150,000-Square-Foot Distribution Center: U.S. Foods Warehouse to Close by Fall

• U.S. Foods, a Chicago-based distributor of food products, will be closing down its warehouse in the Lakeland area and moving its operations to bases in Tampa and Port Orange by August.

• A total of 150 local jobs will be affected by this move. U.S. Foods has given the opportunity for Lakeland employees to work at another location, but it is not guaranteed that every employee will be able to keep their job with U.S. Foods. • A memo about this occurrence was sent to employees mid-May. Within the memo, Chief Operating Officer, Staurt Schuette, and the president of the Southern Region provided a reason stating, “Lakeland has experienced a significant loss of business and can no longer sustain its current level of operational costs.”

Source: Lakeland Ledger, May 13, 2015

Dollar Tree Considering Store On Socrum Loop in Lakeland

• Dollar Tree is looking to open a new store in Lakeland. The Lakeland City Commission will put the decision to a vote on June 15th. • The proposed area would be a 10,000-squarefoot area on N. Socrum Loop next to the Winn-Dixie supermarket.

• Dollar Tree is also working on selling 330 Family Dollars to a New York private equity firm in order to satisfy one condition the Federal Trade Commission has put in place for allowance of the merge between Dollar Tree and Family Dollar.

Source: Lakeland Ledger, June 1, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

63


L akeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

1

2.5

Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product 35000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0 20000.0 15000.0

2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate

10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands)

240.0

Lakeland Real Personal Income 10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

220.0

0.0%

200.0

-5.0%

180.0 160.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Lakeland Payroll Employment 64

2

30000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

260.0

1.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

-10.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


L akeland

Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23 4.8 9 14.1

23.3 4.4 9.1 14.2

23.5 4.4 9.2 14.3

23.7 4.4 9.3 14.4

24 4.1 9.4 14.5

24.2 4.1 9.5 14.7

24.5 4.5 9.7 14.9

24.9 5 9.8 15.1

25.3 5.4 9.9 15.3

25.6 5.6 10 15.6

25.9 5.7 10.2 15.8

26.3 5.5 10.3 16

26.6 5.4 10.4 16.2

27 5.4 10.5 16.5

27.3 5.5 10.6 16.7

27.7 5.4 10.8 16.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 4.5

21.4 4.4

21.5 4.4

21.7 4

21.8 2.8

22 2.6

22.1 2.8

22.3 3

22.6 3.3

22.8 3.6

22.9 3.7

23.1 3.6

23.3 3.3

23.5 3.3

23.7 3.4

23.9 3.4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

35.9 33.1

36.2 33.3

36.4 33.3

36.6 33.5

37 33.7

37.3 33.8

37.6 33.9

38.1 34.1

38.6 34.4

39 34.6

39.3 34.8

39.7 34.9

40.2 35.2

40.6 35.4

41 35.6

41.4 35.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43.2 1.6

43.6 2.1

43.9 2.9

44.2 3

44.6 3.3

45 3.3

45.4 3.4

45.8 3.5

46.2 3.5

46.6 3.6

47 3.6

47.4 3.6

47.9 3.7

48.3 3.8

48.8 3.8

49.3 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

206 3.1

207.3 3.2

208.5 3.1

209.4 3

210.2 2

211 1.8

211.8 1.6

212.6 1.5

213.4 1.5

214.1 1.5

214.9 1.4

215.5 1.4

215.8 1.1

216.3 1

216.7 0.8

216.9 0.7

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

16.7 1.9

16.7 2.1

16.8 2.1

16.8 2.5

16.8 0.7

16.8 0.5

16.9 0.7

16.9 0.5

16.9 0.6

17 0.8

17 0.6

17 0.6

17 0.5

17 0.4

17 0.2

17.1 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

189.3 3.2

190.6 3.3

191.7 3.2

192.6 3

193.3 2.1

194.1 1.9

194.9 1.7

195.7 1.6

196.4 1.6

197.2 1.6

197.9 1.5

198.5 1.4

198.7 1.2

199.2 1

199.6 0.9

199.9 0.7

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

11.6 3.9

11.6 3.3

11.8 3

12 4.9

12.2 5.8

12.5 7.3

12.8 8.3

13.1 9.3

13.4 9.5

13.6 9.4

13.9 8.6

14.1 7.4

14.2 6.5

14.4 5.9

14.6 5.2

14.7 4.3

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

50.7 4.1

51.1 3.9

51.5 3.9

51.7 4.2

51.7 2

51.8 1.2

51.8 0.5

51.8 0.2

51.9 0.4

52.1 0.6

52.3 0.9

52.4 1.2

52.4 1.1

52.5 0.7

52.5 0.3

52.4 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

9.6 27.4 13.6

9.7 27.7 13.8

9.8 27.8 13.9

9.9 27.8 14

9.9 27.6 14.1

9.9 27.6 14.2

10 27.5 14.3

10 27.3 14.4

10.1 27.2 14.5

10.1 27.2 14.7

10.2 27.2 14.8

10.3 27.1 14.9

10.3 27 15

10.3 26.9 15.1

10.4 26.8 15.1

10.4 26.7 15.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.6 0.3

1.6 1.6

1.6 1.9

1.6 0.1

1.6 1.1

1.6 0.2

1.6 -0.1

1.6 -0.6

1.7 2

1.7 2.7

1.7 2.2

1.7 2

1.7 0.1

1.7 -0.6

1.7 -0.4

1.7 -0.5

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11.7 0.3

11.8 0.8

11.9 1.2

11.9 1.5

11.9 1.6

11.9 0.6

11.9 -0.2

11.8 -0.6

11.8 -0.9

11.8 -1.1

11.7 -1.2

11.7 -1.4

11.6 -1.5

11.6 -1.4

11.6 -1.4

11.5 -1.3

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

28.1 7.4

28.4 4.4

28.7 4.6

29.2 4.8

29.6 5.3

30 5.3

30.3 5.6

30.6 4.9

30.9 4.4

31.1 3.7

31.2 2.8

31.2 2

31.3 1.1

31.3 0.8

31.4 0.7

31.4 0.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

31.4 3.5

31.6 3.8

31.7 3.8

31.7 3.7

31.9 1.5

32.1 1.6

32.3 1.6

32.4 2

32.4 1.6

32.5 1.1

32.5 0.8

32.6 0.8

32.6 0.8

32.7 0.9

32.9 1

32.9 1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

21.2 4.2

21.3 4.4

21.3 3.4

21.3 1.1

21.4 0.8

21.3 0.1

21.3 -0.3

21.3 -0.4

21.3 -0.4

21.3 0.2

21.4 0.7

21.5 1.1

21.5 1

21.5 1

21.6 0.8

21.6 0.7

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

5.6 -3.4

5.6 0

5.6 2.1

5.6 0.8

5.6 0.9

5.6 0.4

5.6 0

5.6 -0.2

5.6 -0.4

5.6 -0.7

5.6 -0.8

5.6 -0.9

5.6 -0.7

5.6 -0.5

5.6 -0.3

5.6 -0.1

1 0.3

1 0.5

1 0.2

1 -0.6

1 -1.4

1 -2

1 -2.1

1 -2.1

1 -1.9

1 -1.8

1 -1.8

1 -1.8

1 -1.9

0.9 -1.9

0.9 -1.8

0.9 -1.7

26.4 -0.9

26.5 1.4

26.5 1.3

26.4 0.2

26.5 0

26.4 -0.2

26.4 -0.2

26.5 0.1

26.6 0.4

26.6 0.7

26.7 1

26.8 1.2

26.9 1.2

27 1.3

27 1.4

27.1 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

641.3 1.5

643.2 1.4

645 1.3

646.5 1.1

648.1 1.1

649.8 1

651.5 1

653.2 1

655.1 1.1

657 1.1

659 1.1

660.9 1.2

662.8 1.2

664.7 1.2

666.5 1.1

668.3 1.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

281.1 -0.1

283.1 0.8

285.3 1.5

287.1 1.8

288.7 2.7

290.3 2.5

291.9 2.3

293.4 2.2

294.9 2.1

296.3 2.1

297.9 2

299.2 2

300.4 1.9

301.7 1.8

302.9 1.7

304 1.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.7

6.2

6

5.9

5.7

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.6

2271 2252 18

2625 2577 48

2998 2892 106

3249 3071 178

3499 3243 256

3725 3368 357

4008 3555 452

4418 3864 555

4653 4034 619

4734 4085 649

4798 4112 686

4836 4122 713

4922 4196 726

5006 4259 748

5052 4253 799

5042 4218 823

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

65


L akeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

19.1 5.4 8.1 11

19.5 2 8 11.4

18.7 -3.8 7.7 11.1

19.9 5.9 7.7 12.2

21.3 7.2 7.7 13.5

20.7 -2.6 8 12.7

21.4 3.4 8.3 13.1

22.4 4.4 8.7 13.7

19.7 2.9

19.5 -1

18.7 -3.7

19.5 4.2

20.4 4.6

19.5 -4.3

20 2.1

20.6 3

32.6 33.5

32.7 32.7

31.3 31.3

32.8 32.3

34.9 33.5

33.6 31.7

34.3 31.9

35.2 32.3

38.2 1.8

38.7 1.3

39 0.9

39.8 2.1

40.5 1.7

41.3 1.9

41.9 1.5

42.7 1.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

210.1 0

206.7 -1.6

195.8 -5.2

191.1 -2.4

190 -0.6

192.6 1.4

197.4 2.5

201.6 2.1

17.2 -3.6

16.3 -5.2

14.8 -9.3

14.2 -4.3

14.2 -0.1

14.6 2.9

15.9 8.8

16.4 3.3

192.9 0.4

190.3 -1.3

181 -4.9

176.9 -2.3

175.8 -0.6

178 1.3

181.5 2

185.2 2

16.2 -6.3

14.3 -11.9

12.1 -15.3

11 -8.8

10.4 -5.9

10.2 -1.3

10.9 6.8

11.3 3.7

49.4 0.1

48.2 -2.5

45.3 -5.9

44.9 -1

45.9 2.3

47.1 2.5

48.1 2.2

49.3 2.5

10.1 26.4 12.9

9.6 26.1 12.5

9.1 24.2 12

8.7 24.2 12

9 24.5 12.5

9.2 24.6 13.2

9.4 25.4 13.3

9.4 26.6 13.3

2.2 -7.8

2.1 -3.4

1.9 -9.2

1.8 -7

1.6 -6.7

1.6 -3

1.6 -1.5

1.6 2.1

12 2.4

12.4 2.8

12 -3.4

11.8 -1.7

11.6 -1.5

11.4 -1.4

11.6 1.7

11.7 0.9

30.4 -2.8

29.7 -2.5

27.4 -7.5

25.7 -6.3

24.3 -5.4

25.4 4.5

26 2.4

27.2 4.5

28.3 5.1

29.4 4

29 -1.4

29.2 0.5

29.6 1.7

29.4 -0.9

30.1 2.3

30.5 1.4

18.2 2.7

18.2 -0.4

17.3 -4.5

16.8 -3.3

17.8 6

18.9 6.2

19.6 4

20.6 4.9

6.9 -6.8

6.5 -6.1

6.1 -5.6

5.8 -4.5

5.4 -7

5.3 -2

5.3 0.2

5.6 5.5

1.4 1.2

1.4 0

1.4 -1.3

1.6 15.8

1.2 -24.6

1.1 -7.6

1.1 -3.7

1 -6.2

27.9 4.3

28.3 1.7

28.5 0.6

28.4 -0.3

27.9 -1.7

27.6 -1.2

27.2 -1.5

26.3 -3.2

586.5 2.8

595 1.4

599.3 0.7

604.4 0.9

610.5 1

616.8 1

624.8 1.3

635.7 1.7

268.7 3

272.9 1.6

272.7 -0.1

278.5 2.1

276.9 -0.6

277.4 0.2

279.2 0.7

281.3 0.8

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

66

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

4.5

6.9

11.2

12.1

11.3

9.7

8.3

7.1

4390 4042 348

3232 2376 856

1203 1190 13

1229 1173 56

1117 1062 55

1452 1399 53

1945 1917 28

2606 2600 5


L akeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

23.4 4.5 9.1 14.2

24.4 4.4 9.6 14.8

25.8 5.5 10.1 15.7

27.2 5.4 10.6 16.6

28.6 5.4 11.1 17.5

30.1 5.2 11.6 18.5

31.5 4.7 12.2 19.3

32.9 4.5 12.8 20.2

34.5 4.7 13.3 21.1

36 4.5 13.9 22.1

21.5 4.3

22 2.8

22.8 3.6

23.6 3.3

24.4 3.4

25.3 3.6

26 2.9

26.7 2.6

27.4 2.6

28.1 2.6

36.3 33.3

37.5 33.9

39.1 34.7

40.8 35.5

42.5 36.2

44.1 37.1

45.6 37.6

47 38.1

48.6 38.6

50.1 39.1

43.7 2.4

45.2 3.4

46.8 3.6

48.6 3.8

50.5 4

52.5 3.9

54.5 3.8

56.6 3.8

58.7 3.8

61 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

207.8 3.1

211.4 1.7

214.5 1.5

216.4 0.9

218 0.7

220.3 1.1

222.3 0.9

224.3 0.9

225.8 0.7

226.7 0.4

16.8 2.2

16.9 0.6

17 0.7

17 0.4

17 0

17 -0.3

16.9 -0.5

16.9 -0.2

16.8 -0.3

16.8 -0.5

191 3.2

194.5 1.8

197.5 1.5

199.4 1

200.9 0.8

203.3 1.2

205.4 1

207.4 1

208.9 0.8

209.9 0.5

11.7 3.8

12.6 7.7

13.7 8.7

14.5 5.5

14.9 2.7

15.2 2.2

15.5 1.9

15.7 1.1

15.8 1

15.9 0.6

51.3 4

51.8 1

52.2 0.8

52.4 0.5

52.4 0

52.6 0.3

52.8 0.4

53 0.4

53.1 0.1

52.9 -0.2

9.7 27.7 13.8

9.9 27.5 14.3

10.2 27.2 14.7

10.3 26.9 15.1

10.5 26.5 15.2

10.6 26.4 15.4

10.7 26.4 15.5

10.8 26.4 15.7

10.9 26.3 15.8

10.9 26.2 15.8

1.6 1

1.6 0.1

1.7 2.2

1.7 -0.3

1.7 -0.2

1.7 1.4

1.7 2.2

1.7 2

1.8 1.6

1.8 1.2

11.8 0.9

11.9 0.3

11.7 -1.1

11.6 -1.4

11.5 -0.4

11.6 0.3

11.6 0.6

11.7 0.9

11.8 0.7

11.9 0.6

28.6 5.3

30.1 5.3

31.1 3.2

31.3 0.7

31.8 1.4

32.7 2.8

33.6 2.8

34.4 2.5

35.1 1.9

35.5 1.3

31.6 3.7

32.1 1.7

32.5 1.1

32.8 0.9

33.2 1.1

33.6 1.3

33.9 1

34.3 0.9

34.6 0.9

34.8 0.6

21.3 3.3

21.3 0

21.4 0.4

21.6 0.9

21.7 0.4

21.7 0.2

21.7 0.2

21.7 -0.2

21.6 -0.5

21.5 -0.4

5.6 -0.1

5.6 0.3

5.6 -0.7

5.6 -0.4

5.6 -0.1

5.6 0

5.5 -0.1

5.5 -0.2

5.5 -0.1

5.5 0

1 0.1

1 -1.9

1 -1.8

0.9 -1.8

0.9 -1.3

1.1 13.1

0.9 -10.9

0.9 -0.2

0.9 -0.1

0.9 -0.7

26.5 0.5

26.4 -0.1

26.7 0.8

27 1.3

27.4 1.4

27.7 1.1

28 1.2

28.4 1.5

28.8 1.4

29.1 1.1

644 1.3

650.6 1

658 1.1

665.6 1.2

673.6 1.2

681.9 1.2

691 1.3

700.3 1.4

709.6 1.3

718.7 1.3

284.1 1

291.1 2.4

297.1 2.1

302.3 1.7

306.1 1.3

309.2 1

312.3 1

315.8 1.1

319.2 1.1

321.5 0.7

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.2

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

2786 2698 88

3912 3507 405

4755 4089 667

5006 4232 774

5171 4270 901

5300 4310 990

5251 4247 1004

5239 4226 1013

5161 4178 984

5206 4195 1011

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

67


L akeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2015

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

37.7 4.5 14.5 23.2

39.8 5.5 15.2 24.6

41.7 4.8 15.8 25.9

43.5 4.5 16.4 27.1

45.5 4.5 17.1 28.3

47.5 4.4 17.8 29.6

49.7 4.6 18.6 31

52 4.7 19.4 32.5

54.3 4.6 20.2 34.1

56.8 4.4 21 35.8

28.8 2.7

29.5 2.2

30.3 2.7

31 2.5

31.8 2.4

32.5 2.3

33.3 2.5

34.2 2.6

35 2.5

35.8 2.4

51.7 39.6

54.5 40.4

56.5 41

58.4 41.6

60.4 42.1

62.3 42.7

64.5 43.3

66.8 43.9

69.2 44.6

71.5 45.2

63.3 3.9

65.9 4

68.4 3.9

71 3.8

73.6 3.7

76.3 3.6

79 3.6

81.8 3.5

84.7 3.5

87.6 3.4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

227.8 0.5

228.8 0.4

229.6 0.3

230.5 0.4

231.7 0.5

232.6 0.4

234.3 0.7

236.1 0.8

237.5 0.6

238.2 0.3

16.6 -0.7

16.5 -0.9

16.3 -1

16.2 -0.9

16 -0.7

16 -0.5

15.9 -0.4

15.8 -0.6

15.7 -0.4

15.7 -0.4

211.2 0.6

212.4 0.5

213.3 0.4

214.3 0.5

215.6 0.6

216.7 0.5

218.4 0.8

220.3 0.9

221.7 0.6

222.5 0.4

16 0.6

16.1 0.9

16.2 0.3

16.2 0

16.2 0.1

16.4 0.9

16.6 1.7

16.8 1

16.9 0.6

16.9 0

53 0.2

53.1 0.1

53 -0.1

53 0

53 0

52.9 -0.3

52.9 0

52.9 0

52.9 0

52.8 -0.2

10.9 26.1 16

10.9 26 16.1

10.9 25.9 16.2

10.9 25.9 16.3

10.8 25.8 16.4

10.7 25.7 16.4

10.7 25.7 16.4

10.7 25.8 16.5

10.6 25.8 16.5

10.6 25.8 16.4

1.8 0.3

1.8 0.9

1.8 1

1.9 1

1.9 0.9

1.9 0.5

1.9 0.9

1.9 1

1.9 1.1

2 1.4

11.9 0.5

12 0.8

12.1 0.3

12.1 0.5

12.2 0.6

12.3 0.5

12.4 0.8

12.4 0.7

12.5 0.7

12.6 0.5

36.2 1.8

37 2.1

37.5 1.5

38.1 1.4

38.7 1.8

39.3 1.3

40.1 2

41.1 2.7

41.8 1.6

42.2 1.1

35 0.6

35.1 0.4

35.4 0.7

35.7 1

36.1 1.1

36.4 0.9

36.8 1.2

37.3 1.3

37.7 1.1

38 0.7

21.4 -0.5

21.3 -0.5

21.2 -0.4

21.2 0

21.2 0

21.1 -0.2

21.2 0.1

21.2 0.2

21.3 0.2

21.3 0

5.6 0.6

5.6 0.1

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.1

5.5 -0.2

5.5 -0.4

5.5 -0.3

5.5 -0.1

5.5 -0.2

0.9 -1

0.9 2.6

0.9 0.3

1 0.3

1 0.2

1 6.7

1 -4.9

1 0.3

1 0.2

1 0.2

29.4 1

29.4 -0.1

29.5 0.5

29.7 0.5

29.8 0.5

29.9 0.4

30 0.4

30.1 0.4

30.2 0.3

30.3 0.3

727.8 1.3

728.8 0.1

737.1 1.1

745.4 1.1

753.6 1.1

761.7 1.1

769.6 1

777.6 1

785.5 1

793.4 1

322.7 0.4

320.9 -0.6

321.5 0.2

323.2 0.5

325.4 0.7

327.6 0.7

329.7 0.7

331.8 0.6

334 0.7

336.2 0.7

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

68

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5118 4102 1016

5063 3982 1081

5026 3831 1196

4843 3587 1255

4798 3509 1288

4836 3513 1323

4765 3438 1326

4572 3213 1359

4515 3142 1374

4507 3111 1396

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


L akeland

Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

59.2 4.4 21.7 37.5

61.8 4.3 22.5 39.2

64.3 4.1 23.3 40.9

67 4.2 24.2 42.8

69.9 4.3 25 44.8

72.8 4.3 25.9 46.9

76 4.3 26.9 49.1

79.3 4.3 27.9 51.3

82.8 4.5 29.1 53.7

86.5 4.5 30.4 56.1

36.6 2.3

37.4 2.2

38.2 2

39 2.1

39.8 2.1

40.7 2.1

41.5 2.2

42.5 2.2

43.5 2.3

44.5 2.4

73.9 45.7

76.4 46.3

78.7 46.8

81.3 47.3

84 47.9

86.8 48.4

89.8 49.1

92.9 49.8

96.2 50.5

99.8 51.3

90.6 3.4

93.6 3.4

96.8 3.3

100 3.3

103.2 3.3

106.6 3.2

110.1 3.3

113.7 3.3

117.5 3.3

121.4 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

238.9 0.3

239.6 0.3

240.2 0.2

240.8 0.3

241.5 0.3

242.2 0.3

243.4 0.5

244.8 0.6

246.8 0.8

249 0.9

15.6 -0.4

15.6 -0.4

15.5 -0.5

15.4 -0.4

15.3 -0.5

15.2 -0.6

15.2 -0.6

15 -0.7

15 -0.6

14.9 -0.6

223.3 0.3

224.1 0.4

224.7 0.3

225.4 0.3

226.1 0.3

227 0.4

228.2 0.5

229.7 0.7

231.9 0.9

234.1 1

16.9 0.1

17 0.4

17 0.3

17.1 0.5

17.2 0.6

17.3 0.3

17.4 0.9

17.6 1

17.7 0.8

17.9 0.9

52.7 -0.3

52.5 -0.3

52.3 -0.5

52.1 -0.3

51.9 -0.4

51.6 -0.4

51.4 -0.4

51.3 -0.3

51.3 0

51.3 0

10.5 25.9 16.3

10.4 25.9 16.2

10.3 26 16

10.2 26 15.9

10.1 26 15.7

10.1 26 15.6

10 26 15.4

10.1 25.9 15.3

10.2 25.9 15.2

10.3 26 15.1

2 1.5

2 1.4

2 1.3

2.1 1.2

2.1 1.1

2.1 0.9

2.1 1.5

2.2 1.9

2.2 1.7

2.3 1.6

12.6 0.4

12.7 0.4

12.7 0.4

12.8 0.5

12.8 0.3

12.9 0.3

12.9 0.4

13 0.4

13.1 0.5

13.1 0.4

42.7 1

43.1 1

43.5 0.9

43.8 0.7

44.2 0.8

44.7 1.2

45.5 1.8

46.5 2.1

47.7 2.6

49 2.8

38.2 0.7

38.5 0.7

38.8 0.7

39.1 0.8

39.4 0.9

39.8 0.9

40.1 0.9

40.5 1

41 1.1

41.4 1

21.3 0.1

21.3 0.1

21.3 0

21.3 0.1

21.3 0

21.3 -0.2

21.3 -0.1

21.2 -0.1

21.2 0

21.2 0.1

5.5 -0.3

5.5 -0.3

5.4 -0.5

5.4 -0.5

5.4 -0.4

5.4 -0.6

5.3 -0.6

5.3 -0.5

5.3 -0.6

5.2 -0.6

1 0.3

1 0.3

1 0.2

1 0.2

1 0

1 4.5

1 -4.2

1 0.5

1 0

1 0.6

30.4 0.3

30.5 0.3

30.6 0.3

30.7 0.3

30.8 0.3

30.9 0.3

31 0.4

31.2 0.4

31.4 0.8

31.7 0.9

801.2 1

809 1

816.7 0.9

824.2 0.9

831.7 0.9

839 0.9

846.2 0.9

853.4 0.8

860.3 0.8

867.2 0.8

338.5 0.7

340.7 0.6

342.7 0.6

344.7 0.6

346.7 0.6

348.4 0.5

350.1 0.5

351.5 0.4

352.9 0.4

354.3 0.4

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

4521 3103 1418

4481 3034 1447

4426 2960 1466

4401 2893 1508

4351 2796 1555

4350 2742 1608

4357 2707 1650

4340 2637 1703

4362 2609 1754

4389 2594 1795

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69


M iami – Fort L auderdale – P ompano B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 4.9 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $45,300 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be $55,900, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 297,006.10 million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.0 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 5.3 percent. Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at an average of 8.4 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 3.9 percent each year. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.9 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 2,982,840 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.4% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 161,214 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • • • • • • • • • • •

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571 Miami-Dade County – 29,000 Federal Government – 19,500 Florida State Government – 17,100 University of Miami – 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida – 13,376 Jackson Health System – 12,571 Publix Super Markets – 10,800 American Airlines – 9,000 Florida International University – 8,000 Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Source: The Beacon Council 70

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Miami’s strong economy broadens from ‘twolegged stool’

• Miami-Dade’s economy is diversifying from the traditional two-legged stool–tourism and construction–to the development of digital technology industries and jobs.

• This long sought after diversification of the South Florida economy can be attributed to several factors: Florida’s great investment climate, the support of the Knight Foundation for high technology industries and, interestingly, the global publicity Miami-Dade garners from international Art Basel show. • Sustaining diversification depends on investments in infrastructure that will establish the basis for future economic growth in the region.

Source: Miami Today, April 15, 2015


M iami – F ort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Miami-Dade enrolls 400,000 in Obamacare, more than 43 states

• With 400,000 enrollments, Miami-Dade County has been a national leader in enrollment in Obamacare, more than any Florida county along with 43 other states. • These outcomes can be attributed, at least in part, to effective outreach by enrollment campaigners, utilizing community leaders and presentations in the first languages, such as Spanish and Creole, of many community members. • Miami-Dade leads Florida enrollment with 392,231 plan selections.

Source: Miami Herald, April 13, 2015

Miami real estate brokers make pitch to China

• A South Florida real estate delegation led by Teresa Kinney, CEO of the Miami Association of Realtors, traveled to Beijing, China in April to garner interest from Chinese buyers for luxury properties in the Miami-Dade area.

• As the Miami real-estate market relies less and less upon foreign investments from Latin America, developers are turning to the other regions, most notably China. One Chinese investor in 2014 paid upwards of $74 million for a 2.4-acre site. • The potential for Chinese buyers in South Florida is growing, and, as Miami has been a leader in international real estate sales in the nation, the presence of these investors will only increase sales to foreign buyers.

significantly over the last few years alone, with congestion up 21% in 2014 year over year.

• As a result of this spike in congestion, businesses in South Florida are hurting. It’s more difficult for employees to make it to work on time and tourists get discouraged.

• According to Tony Villamil, founder of the Coral Gables-based consulting firm Washington Economic Group, development from the economic recovery could become a “double-edged sword” if the city’s infrastructure can’t keep pace.

Source: Miami Herald, May 17, 2015

Some South Florida workers still feel left out of the recovery

• The Miami-Dade County is currently experiencing an unemployment rate almost as low as its 2008 level, according to Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity.

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment figures came in at 6.2%, a 0.2% increase from March. For reference, April 2014 saw a 7.2% jobless rate, and the peak unemployment during the Great Recession was at a 12% in 2009.

• Although the numbers show improvements, for many in South Florida the jobs created were only low-paying tourism and retail positions. Much of the wealth created by the economic recovery has flowed to Florida’s wealthiest inhabitants.

Source: Miami Herald, May 22, 2015

Source: Miami Herald, May 19, 2015

Business Slowdown: Traffic jams up South Florida economy • Overwhelmingly, and perhaps unsurprisingly, a recent Miami Herald survey has found that most inhabitants of Miami-Dade county rate traffic in the area as “very bad.” The survey further found that traffic has increased

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

71


M iami – Fort L auderdale – P ompano B each Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

700000.0

8.0%

400000.0

1.4

1.6

(Millions 2000 $)

300000.0

4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate

Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands)

3200.0 3000.0 2800.0 2600.0 2400.0 2200.0 2000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Miami Payroll Employment 72

1.2

600000.0 500000.0

3400.0

1

Miami Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 6.0%

0.8

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

200000.0 100000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Miami Real Personal Income

(percent change year ago) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


M iami – F ort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

284.5 4.8 131.1 153.4

287.1 4.2 132.7 154.4

289.5 4.1 134.6 154.9

292 3.8 136.3 155.7

295.6 3.9 138 157.5

298.8 4.1 139.8 159

302.4 4.5 141.5 160.9

306.7 5 143.4 163.2

311.6 5.4 145.4 166.2

315.7 5.6 147.3 168.4

319.7 5.7 149.2 170.5

323.9 5.6 151.1 172.8

328.5 5.4 152.9 175.7

332.9 5.5 154.7 178.2

337.2 5.5 156.6 180.6

341.4 5.4 158.5 182.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

262.3 4.5

264 4.2

265.3 4.1

266.9 3.4

269.2 2.6

270.7 2.6

272.6 2.7

274.9 3

278.3 3.4

280.6 3.6

282.7 3.7

285 3.7

287.6 3.3

290 3.4

292.3 3.4

294.5 3.3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

47.6 43.9

47.9 44

48.1 44.1

48.4 44.2

48.8 44.5

49.2 44.6

49.6 44.7

50.2 45

50.8 45.4

51.4 45.6

51.8 45.8

52.4 46.1

52.9 46.3

53.5 46.6

54 46.8

54.5 47

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

52.6 1.5

52.9 2.1

53.4 2.9

53.8 3

54.2 3.1

54.6 3.2

55.1 3.2

55.5 3.3

56 3.4

56.5 3.4

57 3.5

57.5 3.5

58.1 3.6

58.6 3.7

59.2 3.8

59.7 3.9

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

2479.8 3.6

2493.7 3.2

2507.8 2.9

2520.7 2.3

2532.6 2.1

2545.6 2.1

2557.2 2

2569.2 1.9

2581.1 1.9

2592.4 1.8

2603.3 1.8

2613.7 1.7

2619.5 1.5

2626.7 1.3

2633.7 1.2

2639.2 1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

81.8 2.1

81.8 1.5

81.8 0.7

81.9 0.2

81.8 0

81.7 -0.1

81.7 0

81.7 -0.2

81.8 0

81.8 0.1

81.8 0

81.8 0

81.7 -0.1

81.7 -0.1

81.6 -0.2

81.5 -0.3

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2398 3.7

2411.9 3.3

2426.1 2.9

2438.9 2.4

2450.8 2.2

2463.9 2.2

2475.5 2

2487.4 2

2499.3 2

2510.6 1.9

2521.5 1.9

2532 1.8

2537.8 1.5

2545.1 1.4

2552.1 1.2

2557.7 1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

107.8 9.1

109.2 7.3

111.2 7.4

113.4 6.2

115.8 7.5

118.2 8.3

120.8 8.6

124.4 9.7

127.4 10

130.6 10.4

133.6 10.6

136.6 9.8

138.7 8.9

140.8 7.8

142.6 6.8

143.9 5.4

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

577.7 3.3

582.2 3.3

587.1 3.2

589.1 3.1

589.4 2

590.5 1.4

591.3 0.7

591.9 0.5

592.9 0.6

595.3 0.8

597.9 1.1

599.9 1.3

600.6 1.3

601.3 1

601.7 0.6

602.1 0.4

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

145.6 331.1 101.1

146.4 333.6 102

147.8 335.9 103

148.7 335.7 104.2

149.1 334.6 105.2

149.6 334.2 106.2

150 333.6 107.1

150.5 332.6 108

151.2 331.8 109.1

152.2 332 110.1

153.3 332.4 111.2

154.4 332.1 112.3

155 331.3 113.1

155.6 330.6 113.8

156.2 329.8 114.1

156.8 328.9 114.5

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

48.2 1.8

48.5 1.4

48.6 0.9

48.8 1

48.3 0.1

48.3 -0.5

48.3 -0.7

48.2 -1.2

49 1.6

49.5 2.4

49.3 2.1

49.2 2.1

49.2 0.3

49.3 -0.4

49.3 0

49.2 0

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

173.2 3.8

174 3.6

174.9 3.2

175.1 1.6

175.5 1.3

175.3 0.7

175.1 0.1

174.9 -0.1

174.6 -0.5

174.1 -0.7

173.5 -0.9

173 -1.1

172.6 -1.2

172 -1.2

171.5 -1.2

171.1 -1.1

399 4.8

401.6 3.7

404.8 3.2

412.1 3.9

418.9 5

425.7 6

431.8 6.7

437.5 6.2

442.7 5.7

445.6 4.7

447.6 3.7

449.8 2.8

451.2 1.9

452.7 1.6

454.4 1.5

455.4 1.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

366.2 4.3

368.5 4.2

370.7 3.6

371 1.9

373.1 1.9

376.7 2.2

378.8 2.2

380.5 2.6

381.1 2.1

382.4 1.5

383.6 1.3

384.9 1.1

385.1 1.1

386.7 1.1

388.1 1.2

389.2 1.1

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

303.6 3.7

305.1 3.1

306.2 2.5

307.2 1.6

307.7 1.3

307.1 0.7

307.4 0.4

307.7 0.2

308.5 0.3

309.6 0.8

311.6 1.4

313.3 1.8

314 1.8

314.8 1.7

316 1.4

317.1 1.2

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

121.5 5.2

121.9 4.5

122.2 3.6

122.4 2.4

122.6 0.9

122.7 0.6

122.6 0.4

122.6 0.1

122.5 0

122.5 -0.2

122.5 -0.1

122.5 0

122.7 0.1

122.9 0.3

123.1 0.5

123.3 0.7

33.2 0.6

33.3 0.9

33.1 0.7

33 -0.8

32.9 -1

32.8 -1.6

32.6 -1.5

32.5 -1.5

32.4 -1.4

32.4 -1.2

32.2 -1.3

32.1 -1.4

32 -1.4

31.9 -1.5

31.8 -1.4

31.7 -1.3

267.6 0

267.6 -0.3

267.3 0.1

266.8 -0.1

266.7 -0.3

266.6 -0.4

266.7 -0.2

267.2 0.1

268 0.5

268.8 0.8

269.8 1.2

270.7 1.3

271.7 1.4

272.7 1.4

273.8 1.5

274.8 1.5

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

5981.6 1.2

6000 1.2

6018.4 1.2

6036.9 1.2

6055.3 1.2

6073.3 1.2

6091.5 1.2

6109.7 1.2

6128.5 1.2

6147.6 1.2

6166.8 1.2

6186.3 1.3

6205.9 1.3

6225.9 1.3

6246.2 1.3

6266.7 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

3012.6 0.8

3025.3 0.9

3042.8 1.2

3057.8 1.3

3073.8 2

3088.9 2.1

3105.8 2.1

3121.9 2.1

3137.1 2.1

3151.7 2

3168.1 2

3182.5 1.9

3196.3 1.9

3209.6 1.8

3224.4 1.8

3238.1 1.7

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5

5

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

17202 6123 11079

17863 6650 11212

20831 8308 12523

23341 9751 13589

25544 11263 14281

27360 12660 14700

28851 14207 14644

31092 16074 15018

32311 17279 15031

32831 17864 14967

33411 18244 15166

34025 18463 15562

34763 18884 15879

35263 19221 16042

35952 19240 16711

36384 19173 17211

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

73


M iami – Fort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

239.8 3.6 113.8 126

238.9 -0.4 112.7 126.2

223.9 -6.3 106.1 117.8

231.9 3.6 107 124.9

246.9 6.5 110.9 136

258.3 4.6 115.8 142.5

264.5 2.4 120.1 144.3

276.7 4.6 126.8 149.9

246.9 1

238.7 -3.3

224 -6.2

228.1 1.9

237.1 3.9

243.5 2.7

246.4 1.2

254.4 3.2

44.2 45.5

43.7 43.7

40.6 40.6

41.4 40.7

43.2 41.5

44.5 42

45 42

46.6 42.8

46.7 2.5

47.5 1.7

47.7 0.4

48.4 1.6

49.3 1.9

50.3 2.1

50.8 1

51.9 2.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2423.3 0.9

2359.6 -2.6

2212 -6.3

2194.8 -0.8

2233.7 1.8

2286.9 2.4

2349.5 2.7

2427.8 3.3

99.5 -2

93.4 -6.1

80.5 -13.8

76 -5.6

76.3 0.4

77 1

77.8 1

80.9 3.9

2323.8 1.1

2266.2 -2.5

2131.5 -5.9

2118.8 -0.6

2157.4 1.8

2209.8 2.4

2271.7 2.8

2346.9 3.3

161.5 -2

135.3 -16.2

102.9 -24

89 -13.5

85.6 -3.8

87.1 1.7

93.4 7.3

102.7 9.9

550.3 1.1

541.4 -1.6

505.8 -6.6

505 -0.2

520.3 3

537.1 3.2

550.5 2.5

565.8 2.8

148.4 306.1 95.8

145.2 300.9 95.3

135.5 281.2 89.1

132.7 283.9 88.4

134.5 294.8 91

139.1 303.7 94.2

140.7 313.1 96.7

143.2 323 99.6

51.2 -2.4

49.7 -2.9

44.9 -9.6

43.6 -3

44.1 1.1

45.2 2.5

46.4 2.7

47.9 3.2

182.4 -1.2

171.9 -5.8

156.3 -9.1

153.3 -1.9

156.3 2

161.4 3.2

164.6 2

169.2 2.8

366.7 0.6

349.8 -4.6

322.2 -7.9

325.7 1.1

339.3 4.2

353 4

371.2 5.1

389.2 4.9

318.9 3.5

326.3 2.3

330.6 1.3

335.7 1.5

340.9 1.5

341.8 0.2

346.6 1.4

356.7 2.9

258.6 2.5

257.7 -0.4

248.2 -3.7

252.2 1.6

262 3.9

275.7 5.2

286.5 3.9

297.5 3.8

109 1.6

109.2 0.2

102 -6.6

101.7 -0.3

103.8 2.2

108.5 4.5

111.8 3

117.4 5

34 -0.3

33.8 -0.4

34.1 0.7

36.7 7.6

34.1 -7

33.8 -1

33.5 -0.8

33.1 -1.3

291.2 1.4

291.2 0

284.5 -2.3

276 -3

270.9 -1.8

266.3 -1.7

267.1 0.3

267.5 0.1

5429.3 0

5462 0.6

5516.7 1

5602.1 1.5

5714.6 2

5798 1.5

5871.2 1.3

5938.5 1.1

2844 4.7

2837.4 -0.2

2766.6 -2.5

2808.1 1.5

2859.1 1.8

2910.5 1.8

2940.8 1

3003 2.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.8

6

10.3

10.8

9.6

8.3

7.2

6.3

14690 7655 7035

7441 3550 3891

3477 2222 1255

5055 3278 1777

7311 4153 3158

11442 5302 6140

17191 6273 10918

15019 6079 8941


M iami – F ort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

288.3 4.2 133.7 154.6

300.9 4.4 140.7 160.2

317.7 5.6 148.2 169.5

335 5.4 155.7 179.3

353.2 5.4 163.6 189.6

372.1 5.4 172.6 199.5

389.7 4.7 181.4 208.3

407.3 4.5 190.4 217

426.1 4.6 199.4 226.6

445.1 4.5 208.6 236.5

264.6 4

271.9 2.7

281.7 3.6

291.1 3.4

301.2 3.4

312.4 3.7

321.6 2.9

329.8 2.6

338.2 2.6

346.7 2.5

48 44

49.5 44.7

51.6 45.7

53.7 46.7

55.9 47.7

58.2 48.8

60.1 49.6

62.1 50.3

64.2 50.9

66.2 51.6

53.1 2.4

54.9 3.2

56.8 3.5

58.9 3.7

61.2 4

63.6 3.9

66 3.8

68.4 3.7

71 3.8

73.7 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2500.5 3

2551.1 2

2597.6 1.8

2629.8 1.2

2659.1 1.1

2699.8 1.5

2735.3 1.3

2768.4 1.2

2795.9 1

2816.8 0.7

81.8 1.1

81.7 -0.1

81.8 0

81.6 -0.2

81.2 -0.4

80.6 -0.7

79.9 -0.9

79.4 -0.6

78.9 -0.6

78.3 -0.8

2418.7 3.1

2469.4 2.1

2515.9 1.9

2548.2 1.3

2577.8 1.2

2619.1 1.6

2655.4 1.4

2689 1.3

2717 1

2738.5 0.8

110.4 7.5

119.8 8.5

132 10.2

141.5 7.2

146.7 3.7

151.3 3.1

155.7 3

159.1 2.2

162.2 1.9

164.8 1.6

584 3.2

590.8 1.2

596.5 1

601.4 0.8

603 0.3

606.4 0.6

609.9 0.6

612.5 0.4

613.3 0.1

612.6 -0.1

147.1 334.1 102.6

149.8 333.7 106.6

152.8 332.1 110.7

155.9 330.2 113.9

158.1 327.7 115.1

160.5 328.1 116.2

162.3 329.2 117.1

163.8 330.1 118

164.8 329.8 118.3

165.3 328.7 118.2

48.5 1.3

48.3 -0.6

49.2 2

49.2 0

49.4 0.3

50.2 1.6

51.4 2.4

52.5 2.2

53.5 1.8

54.3 1.5

174.3 3

175.2 0.5

173.8 -0.8

171.8 -1.2

171.3 -0.3

172.1 0.5

173.5 0.8

175.2 1

176.6 0.8

177.9 0.7

404.4 3.9

428.5 6

446.4 4.2

453.4 1.6

463.6 2.2

480.1 3.6

497.3 3.6

513.2 3.2

526.8 2.7

537.8 2.1

369.1 3.5

377.3 2.2

383 1.5

387.3 1.1

392.4 1.3

398.5 1.5

403 1.1

406.8 1

410.7 1

413.4 0.6

305.5 2.7

307.5 0.6

310.8 1.1

315.5 1.5

318.7 1

321.1 0.7

323.2 0.7

323.8 0.2

323.4 -0.1

323.4 0

122 3.9

122.6 0.5

122.5 -0.1

123 0.4

123.9 0.7

124.8 0.7

125.5 0.6

126 0.4

126.6 0.5

127.3 0.6

33.2 0.4

32.7 -1.4

32.3 -1.3

31.8 -1.4

31.5 -0.9

34 8

31.9 -6.2

31.9 0

31.9 0.1

31.9 0

267.3 -0.1

266.8 -0.2

269.3 1

273.2 1.4

277.3 1.5

280.7 1.2

284 1.2

287.9 1.4

291.8 1.4

295 1.1

6009.2 1.2

6082.4 1.2

6157.3 1.2

6236.2 1.3

6317.3 1.3

6398.2 1.3

6479.1 1.3

6559.5 1.2

6639.4 1.2

6718.9 1.2

3034.6 1.1

3097.6 2.1

3159.9 2

3217.1 1.8

3264.3 1.5

3304.7 1.2

3344.1 1.2

3385.1 1.2

3425.6 1.2

3461.4 1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.1

5.1

5.3

5.4

5.2

5

5

5.1

5.1

19809 7708 12101

28212 13551 14661

33144 17963 15182

35590 19129 16461

37654 19434 18220

39388 19816 19571

40163 19861 20302

40717 20097 20620

41144 20307 20837

41353 20662 20692

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

75


M iami – Fort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

465.4 4.5 218.6 246.8

491.5 5.6 229.2 262.3

515 4.8 239.5 275.5

538.7 4.6 250.3 288.4

563.3 4.6 261.6 301.6

588.5 4.5 273.2 315.3

615.9 4.7 285.8 330.1

645.4 4.8 299.2 346.1

675.6 4.7 312.5 363.2

706.3 4.5 325.4 380.9

356.1 2.7

364.2 2.3

374 2.7

383.6 2.5

393.2 2.5

402.7 2.4

413 2.6

424.2 2.7

435.2 2.6

445.9 2.5

68.5 52.4

72.4 53.6

75 54.5

77.7 55.3

80.4 56.1

83.1 56.9

86.1 57.8

89.4 58.7

92.6 59.7

95.9 60.6

76.5 3.8

79.5 3.9

82.5 3.8

85.6 3.7

88.7 3.6

91.8 3.6

95.1 3.5

98.3 3.4

101.6 3.4

105.1 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

2842.5 0.9

2867.8 0.9

2888.3 0.7

2911 0.8

2937.5 0.9

2961.9 0.8

2993.2 1.1

3030.9 1.3

3060.5 1

3083.2 0.7

77.6 -0.9

76.7 -1

75.8 -1.2

75 -1.1

74.4 -0.9

73.9 -0.6

73.5 -0.5

72.9 -0.7

72.5 -0.6

72.1 -0.5

2765 1

2791 0.9

2812.5 0.8

2835.9 0.8

2863.1 1

2888 0.9

2919.7 1.1

2957.9 1.3

2988.1 1

3011.1 0.8

167.6 1.7

171.4 2.3

174 1.5

176.1 1.2

178.3 1.3

181.7 1.9

186.5 2.6

190.4 2.1

193.7 1.7

195.8 1.1

614.2 0.3

614.7 0.1

614 -0.1

614 0

613.9 0

612.3 -0.3

612.9 0.1

613.7 0.1

614.2 0.1

613.6 -0.1

165.5 329.1 119.2

165.8 329.2 119.7

165.6 328.6 119.9

164.6 329.3 120

163.8 329.7 120.5

162.7 329.7 119.9

162.2 331 119.7

161.7 332.7 119.3

161.1 334.2 118.9

160 335.6 118

54.7 0.7

55.3 1.2

56.1 1.4

56.9 1.4

57.7 1.4

58.2 1

59 1.3

59.8 1.4

60.8 1.6

61.9 1.9

178.8 0.5

181.1 1.2

182 0.5

183.1 0.6

184.5 0.7

185.7 0.7

187.4 0.9

189 0.8

190.5 0.8

191.7 0.6

551.6 2.6

567.5 2.9

580.1 2.2

591.9 2

606.6 2.5

619 2.1

636.1 2.8

657.6 3.4

673.2 2.4

685.5 1.8

416.2 0.7

418 0.4

421 0.7

425.4 1

430.2 1.1

434.5 1

439.9 1.2

446 1.4

451 1.1

455.1 0.9

323.2 -0.1

322.9 -0.1

323.1 0.1

324.4 0.4

325.8 0.4

326.6 0.2

328.4 0.6

330.6 0.7

332.5 0.6

334 0.4

128.8 1.1

129.7 0.7

130.2 0.4

130.7 0.4

131.3 0.4

131.6 0.3

131.8 0.1

132 0.2

132.5 0.4

132.9 0.3

32 0.1

32.4 1.3

32.6 0.5

32.7 0.4

32.8 0.4

35.1 6.9

33.4 -4.7

33.6 0.4

33.7 0.3

33.8 0.4

297.8 1

298.2 0.1

299.4 0.4

300.8 0.5

302.2 0.5

303.3 0.4

304.3 0.3

305.2 0.3

306.1 0.3

307 0.3

6798 1.2

6791.9 -0.1

6863.7 1.1

6935.8 1

7007.7 1

7079.9 1

7151.7 1

7222.9 1

7293.5 1

7363.6 1

3491.7 0.9

3487.4 -0.1

3514.3 0.8

3549.4 1

3588.6 1.1

3627.7 1.1

3667.3 1.1

3706.7 1.1

3747.4 1.1

3788.8 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

76

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

41198 20500 20698

42942 20232 22710

45283 19878 25405

46007 19079 26928

46766 19077 27689

48026 19437 28589

48222 19417 28806

47794 18627 29167

47884 18640 29244

48075 18831 29245

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


M iami – F ort L auderdale – P ompano B each

Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

737.8 4.5 338.8 399

770.4 4.4 352.9 417.5

803.1 4.2 367.2 435.9

838.1 4.4 382.2 455.9

874.9 4.4 397.7 477.2

914 4.5 414.4 499.6

956 4.6 433.2 522.8

999.9 4.6 453.2 546.7

1046.1 4.6 474.9 571.2

1094.9 4.7 498.1 596.8

456.5 2.4

467.1 2.3

477 2.1

487.6 2.2

498.5 2.2

510 2.3

522.7 2.5

535.6 2.5

549 2.5

563 2.6

99.3 61.4

102.7 62.3

106.1 63

109.7 63.8

113.5 64.7

117.5 65.6

121.8 66.6

126.3 67.7

131 68.8

135.9 69.9

108.6 3.4

112.3 3.4

116.2 3.4

120.1 3.4

124.2 3.4

128.4 3.4

133.1 3.6

137.9 3.6

143 3.7

148.3 3.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

3105.1 0.7

3128.3 0.7

3148.4 0.6

3168.7 0.6

3190.1 0.7

3213.8 0.7

3242.1 0.9

3273.4 1

3308.7 1.1

3346.5 1.1

71.7 -0.5

71.3 -0.6

70.8 -0.7

70.4 -0.6

69.9 -0.6

69.4 -0.8

68.9 -0.7

68.3 -0.9

67.8 -0.7

67.3 -0.7

3033.3 0.7

3057 0.8

3077.6 0.7

3098.3 0.7

3120.1 0.7

3144.4 0.8

3173.3 0.9

3205.1 1

3240.9 1.1

3279.3 1.2

198.1 1.2

201 1.5

203.8 1.4

207 1.6

210.5 1.7

213.1 1.2

216.8 1.7

220.8 1.8

225 1.9

229.6 2

612.8 -0.1

612.2 -0.1

610.7 -0.3

609.5 -0.2

608.1 -0.2

606.6 -0.2

605.6 -0.2

604.6 -0.2

603.5 -0.2

603.2 -0.1

158.8 337.4 116.6

157.6 339.5 115.1

156.2 341.1 113.4

154.8 342.9 111.8

153.6 344.2 110.2

152.9 345 108.7

152.7 345.9 107

153.1 346 105.5

153.8 345.6 104.1

154.9 345.7 102.6

63.2 2

64.4 1.9

65.5 1.8

66.7 1.7

67.8 1.7

68.8 1.5

70.2 2

71.6 2.1

73 1.9

74.3 1.8

192.8 0.6

193.8 0.5

194.7 0.5

195.9 0.6

196.8 0.4

197.6 0.4

198.7 0.5

199.6 0.4

200.2 0.3

200.7 0.2

697.2 1.7

709.4 1.7

720.5 1.6

730 1.3

740.9 1.5

753.8 1.7

771.6 2.4

791.4 2.6

815 3

840.5 3.1

458.8 0.8

463.1 0.9

467.1 0.9

471.8 1

476.4 1

481.7 1.1

487.2 1.2

492.6 1.1

497.7 1

502 0.9

335.6 0.5

337 0.4

338.2 0.4

339.7 0.4

341 0.4

341.8 0.2

342.8 0.3

343.4 0.2

344.1 0.2

344.9 0.2

133.1 0.2

133.3 0.2

133.3 0

133.2 0

133.3 0

133.1 -0.1

133 -0.1

132.8 -0.1

132.5 -0.3

132.1 -0.3

34 0.5

34.1 0.4

34.2 0.4

34.3 0.3

34.4 0.2

36 4.7

34.5 -4.1

34.7 0.6

34.7 -0.1

34.8 0.5

307.8 0.3

308.7 0.3

309.4 0.2

310.2 0.3

311 0.3

311.9 0.3

312.8 0.3

313.6 0.3

315.3 0.5

317 0.6

7433.3 0.9

7502.5 0.9

7571.4 0.9

7640 0.9

7708.4 0.9

7777 0.9

7846 0.9

7914.7 0.9

7984.4 0.9

8054.2 0.9

3831.7 1.1

3873.9 1.1

3914.5 1

3954.2 1

3993.1 1

4030.2 0.9

4066.9 0.9

4103.7 0.9

4140.5 0.9

4177.6 0.9

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

48314 19152 29162

48131 19111 29020

47751 19084 28667

47843 19093 28750

47775 18886 28888

48114 18967 29147

48378 19179 29199

48578 19148 29430

49023 19405 29618

49393 19773 29621

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

77


Naples – Marco I sland

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the “Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.3 percent. The real per capita income level, which is expected to average $64,300, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $53,600. The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.5 percent. Population growth will average 2.6 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 17,441.18 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 3.3 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.2 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 9.2 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 5.1 percent. The Federal Government sector growth will be negative at -0.2 percent.

• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• Hometown Inspection Svc. – 900

Sold! Mercato goes to highest bidder for about $240M

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 162,719 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.6% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,469 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000 • Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110

• Collier County Sheriff’s Office – 1,029 • Publix – 800

• Marriott – 700

• Naples Grande Beach Resort – 700 • Downing Frye Realty – 550

Source: Collier Business & Economic Development

• The Mercato retail and offices in Naples off of U.S. 41 have recently been sold to Prudential Real Estate Investors for $240 million.

• The Mercato, built in 2007, has 465,359 square feet of prime real-estate. As a shopping center, the location has high-end retail and office space available for lease.

• The location, combined with high quality amenities and locale, makes the Mercato an almost ideal location for clientele. Said by Kevin Smith, head of Americas for PREI, the Mercato has a “high-quality tenant base in a market with a favorable economic outlook and strong demographics.” He says they “look forward to creating additional value at Mercato for the benefit of existing and prospective tenants, the Naples community and our clients.”

78

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

Source: Naples Daily News, May 11, 2015


N aples – M arco I sland

Governor Scott visits Naples Zoo, Florida tourism at an all-time high

• The first quarter of 2015 has seen record-setting tourism numbers across Florida, especially in Naples. Over 621,000 people visited Naples and Marco Island in the first three months of 2015, contributing to a record for the statewide quarter.

• Governor Scott, on a visit to the Naples Zoo said, “Every five tourists we have creates another job. When tourists come down here and create those jobs they see the weather is nice, the people are nice, we’re at a 43-and-ahalf-year low on our crime rate, they move their businesses down here, they move down here and they buy our homes. This is the greatest place ever to be.” • The Naples Zoo forecasts almost 400,000 visitors in the coming year and plans to expand the zoo by adding a veterinary hospital and bigger educational facility.

Source: Naples Herald, May 15, 2015

Panel: Local builders adapt to changing market • The Collier Building Industry Association annual Real Estate Industry panel for 2015 revealed that local builders have to adapt to changing market conditions by reevaluating products and services.

• Most of the builders expressed concerns over finding enough skilled workers in order to keep up with changing demands that keep companies building fast pace over the past year.

Naples real estate so hot it’s about to sizzle

• Real estate values are climbing in Naples, according to the Annual Naples Board of Realtors Economic Summit, held recently in Naples.

• In some cases, prices have surpassed 2005 levels. • Recent infrastructure investment in Southwest Florida is stimulating economic development, contributing to economic development and the possibility of even higher home sales prices.

Source: The News Press, April 8, 2015

Collier County Business Incubator: Local Economy Continues to Diversify

• Collier County suffered severe unemployment in the wake of the last recession—as high as 13% in 2010. • John Cox of the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce believes that attracting new businesses to Collier County is a key factor to more buoyant development.

• The Collier County Business Incubator is part of a major push to draw new businesses into the area.

• These new businesses will help in insulating the Southwest Florida from economic downturns in the future.

Source: Naples Herald, April 10, 2015

• Other members of the industry have identified social media and online platforms as areas for improvement. Speakers at the panel agreed that although these tools have made finding buyers easier, they also make the market even more competitive. • Younger buyers are also infiltrating the market, creating a new demand for less fussy designs, opting instead for more streamlined, modern buildings and amenities.

Source: Naples Daily News, May 27, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79


Naples – Marco I sland Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate 14.0% 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

1.4

1.6

1.8

Naples Real Gross Metro Product 50000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

30000.0 20000.0 10000.0

2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate

0.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Naples Real Personal Income

Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands)

20.0%

200.0

10.0%

150.0

0.0%

100.0

-10.0%

50.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Naples Payroll Employment 80

1.2

40000.0

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0%

250.0

1

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

(percent change year ago)

-20.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


N aples – M arco I sland

Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

24 6.2 6.8 17.2

24.3 5.5 6.9 17.4

24.5 5.2 7 17.5

24.8 5 7.1 17.7

25.2 4.8 7.2 17.9

25.5 5 7.4 18.2

25.9 5.7 7.5 18.5

26.4 6.4 7.6 18.8

26.9 6.9 7.7 19.2

27.4 7.2 7.9 19.5

27.8 7.3 8 19.8

28.3 7.1 8.1 20.2

28.8 7 8.2 20.6

29.4 7.2 8.4 21

29.9 7.3 8.5 21.4

30.3 7.3 8.6 21.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

22.1 5.9

22.4 5.5

22.5 5.2

22.7 4.6

22.9 3.6

23.1 3.5

23.4 3.9

23.7 4.4

24 4.9

24.3 5.2

24.6 5.3

24.9 5.1

25.2 4.9

25.6 5

25.9 5.2

26.2 5.2

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

67.7 62.4

68.2 62.7

68.4 62.7

68.7 62.8

69.2 63

69.7 63.2

70.3 63.4

71.2 63.8

72.1 64.4

72.8 64.7

73.5 65

74.2 65.3

75.1 65.8

76 66.2

76.9 66.6

77.6 67

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

50.2 2.2

50.6 2.7

51 3.4

51.4 3.6

51.9 3.3

52.4 3.4

52.8 3.5

53.3 3.7

53.8 3.7

54.3 3.7

54.8 3.7

55.3 3.6

55.8 3.7

56.4 3.8

56.9 3.9

57.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

134.5 5.3

135.8 5

137 4.7

138 3.9

139 3.3

140 3.1

141.1 3

142.1 2.9

143 2.9

144 2.9

145.1 2.8

146 2.8

146.7 2.6

147.6 2.5

148.5 2.4

149.2 2.2

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

3.5 9.4

3.5 6.8

3.5 4.1

3.5 2.2

3.5 0.7

3.5 0.5

3.6 0.7

3.6 0.5

3.6 0.8

3.6 1

3.6 0.8

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.8

3.6 0.7

3.6 0.5

3.6 0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

131 5.2

132.3 5

133.5 4.7

134.5 3.9

135.4 3.4

136.4 3.2

137.5 3

138.5 3

139.4 3

140.5 3

141.5 2.9

142.4 2.8

143.1 2.6

144 2.5

144.9 2.4

145.6 2.2

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 15.4

13.4 11.4

13.7 12.3

14 11.2

14.3 7.6

14.6 8.8

15 9.2

15.4 9.6

15.7 9.6

16 9.5

16.3 8.8

16.6 8

16.8 7.3

17.1 7

17.4 6.5

17.5 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

26.5 6.2

26.9 6.6

27.2 4.9

27.3 2.4

27.4 3.2

27.5 2.3

27.6 1.5

27.6 1.2

27.7 1.4

27.9 1.6

28.1 1.9

28.2 2.1

28.3 2.1

28.4 1.8

28.5 1.5

28.6 1.3

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.9 20.9 1.7

4 21.2 1.7

4 21.4 1.7

4.1 21.5 1.7

4.1 21.5 1.7

4.1 21.6 1.8

4.1 21.6 1.8

4.2 21.6 1.8

4.2 21.6 1.8

4.3 21.7 1.8

4.3 21.8 1.9

4.4 21.9 1.9

4.4 21.9 1.9

4.4 22 1.9

4.5 22 1.9

4.5 22 1.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.5 0

1.5 3.8

1.5 3.4

1.5 2.9

1.5 2.3

1.5 1.5

1.6 1.3

1.6 0.8

1.6 3.5

1.6 4.2

1.6 3.6

1.6 3.5

1.6 1.7

1.6 0.9

1.6 1.2

1.6 1.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.7 6

7.8 4.5

7.9 5.5

7.9 5.5

8 3.2

8 2.3

8 1.6

8 1.2

8 0.9

8 0.7

8.1 0.6

8.1 0.5

8.1 0.3

8.1 0.3

8.1 0.1

8.1 0

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

15.2 7.7

15.4 8.2

15.6 7.4

15.9 6.6

16.2 6.1

16.4 6.3

16.7 6.8

16.9 6.1

17.1 5.6

17.2 5

17.3 4.1

17.4 3.3

17.5 2.4

17.6 2.1

17.7 1.9

17.7 1.7

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 4.6

19.6 4.9

19.7 4.6

19.8 3.8

19.9 2.9

20.2 3

20.4 3.1

20.5 3.5

20.6 3.1

20.7 2.6

20.8 2.3

21 2.3

21 2.3

21.2 2.4

21.3 2.5

21.5 2.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 1.2

25.7 0.9

25.8 0.5

25.9 1

26 1.7

26 1

26 0.8

26.1 0.7

26.2 0.8

26.3 1.3

26.5 1.8

26.6 2.2

26.7 2.1

26.9 2.2

27 2

27.1 1.9

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.7 5.9

8.8 5.2

8.9 4.8

8.9 4.3

9 2.8

9 2.4

9.1 2.1

9.1 1.9

9.1 1.7

9.2 1.4

9.2 1.2

9.2 1.2

9.3 1.4

9.3 1.6

9.4 1.8

9.4 2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

0.6 0.1

0.6 1.3

0.6 -1.2

0.6 -1

0.6 0.1

0.6 -0.5

0.6 -0.4

0.6 -0.4

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.3

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.1

12.4 -0.4

12.5 1

12.5 2.8

12.6 1.8

12.6 1.3

12.6 1.1

12.7 1.3

12.8 1.6

12.8 1.9

12.9 2.2

13 2.5

13.1 2.6

13.2 2.7

13.3 2.7

13.4 2.8

13.5 2.8

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

354.7 2.3

356.8 2.3

359.1 2.4

361.5 2.5

363.8 2.6

366.3 2.7

368.8 2.7

371.3 2.7

373.6 2.7

376.1 2.7

378.6 2.7

381.1 2.6

383.5 2.6

386 2.6

388.5 2.6

391 2.6

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

162.2 1.7

164 2.1

166 2.6

167.6 2.8

169.3 4.4

171 4.2

172.7 4.1

174.4 4

176 3.9

177.7 3.9

179.4 3.9

181.1 3.8

182.6 3.8

184.2 3.7

185.9 3.6

187.4 3.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.6

5

5

5.1

5

5

5

5.1

5

5

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.4

3538 2545 993

3316 2310 1007

3789 2392 1397

4139 2344 1794

4440 2288 2152

4473 2207 2266

4387 2168 2220

4561 2367 2194

4800 2456 2344

4887 2505 2382

4970 2540 2429

5029 2565 2464

5134 2641 2493

5178 2695 2483

5245 2705 2540

5284 2695 2589

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

81


Naples – Marco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

20.2 4.2 6 14.1

20.2 0.2 5.6 14.6

17.5 -13.5 5 12.4

18.2 4.4 5.1 13.1

19.7 7.9 5.3 14.4

21.6 10 5.6 16.1

22 1.9 6 16.1

23.2 5.1 6.5 16.7

20.8 1.7

20.2 -2.7

17.5 -13.5

17.9 2.6

18.9 5.3

20.4 8

20.5 0.7

21.3 3.7

64.1 66

63.8 63.8

54.7 54.8

56.4 55.4

59.8 57.5

64.8 61.1

64.6 60.1

66.2 60.9

46.2 3.6

45.7 -1.3

45.1 -1.3

45.8 1.6

45.9 0.4

46.6 1.5

48.2 3.4

49.4 2.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

130 -2.2

121.5 -6.6

111.3 -8.4

111.2 -0.1

114.9 3.3

118.7 3.3

123.3 3.9

130.2 5.6

3.3 -1.3

3 -9.7

2.6 -11.2

2.5 -6.7

2.5 1.4

2.7 8.1

3.1 13.7

3.3 9.6

126.7 -2.2

118.5 -6.5

108.6 -8.3

108.7 0.1

112.4 3.4

116 3.2

120.3 3.6

126.8 5.5

19.7 -17.7

14.4 -26.6

10.4 -27.9

9.1 -12.9

9 -1

9.4 4.5

10.5 11.7

12.1 15.4

24.2 -1.3

22.9 -5.3

21.1 -7.6

21.3 0.9

22.2 4

22.8 2.6

23.9 5.1

25.7 7.3

3.2 19.4 1.6

3 18.4 1.5

2.8 16.9 1.5

2.8 17 1.5

2.9 17.9 1.4

3 18.4 1.4

3.4 19.1 1.4

3.7 20.4 1.5

1.8 -4.9

1.8 -0.9

1.6 -8.9

1.5 -4.2

1.5 -4.8

1.4 -2.2

1.5 4.1

1.5 -0.6

8.2 0.1

7.3 -10.4

6.6 -9.8

6.5 -1.1

6.5 -1

6.7 4.3

7 4.2

7.4 5.9

11.6 -8.2

11 -4.9

10.5 -4.6

11.1 5.8

12.1 9.3

13.3 9.8

13.6 1.7

14.5 6.8

16.7 5.3

16.9 0.8

16.6 -1.3

17.1 3

17.9 4.7

18 0.4

18.3 1.7

18.8 2.6

23.3 4.8

22.8 -2

21 -8.2

21.3 1.6

22.6 5.9

23.6 4.4

24.4 3.7

25.5 4.3

7.4 4

7.5 1.4

7.2 -3.1

7.3 0.8

7.3 -0.2

7.5 2.6

7.9 6.6

8.4 6

0.7 0

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.2

0.8 14.7

0.7 -10.6

0.6 -7.2

0.6 -7.6

0.6 0

13.3 4.6

13.3 -0.3

12.9 -2.8

12.7 -1.6

12.7 0.3

12.7 -0.2

12.5 -1.8

12.3 -1

314.7 0.7

316.8 0.7

319.1 0.7

323.4 1.3

328.5 1.6

333.9 1.6

341.3 2.2

349.7 2.5

152 1.2

147.7 -2.8

142.9 -3.3

145.4 1.7

148.8 2.3

152.9 2.8

155.9 2

161.3 3.4

4.2

6.9

10.9

11.6

10.2

8.5

7.1

5.9

1988 1169 819

970 672 298

833 633 199

1202 805 396

1216 928 288

1484 1283 201

2324 1733 591

3403 2487 915

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

82

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


N aples – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

24.4 5.5 7 17.5

25.8 5.5 7.4 18.3

27.6 7.1 7.9 19.7

29.6 7.2 8.4 21.2

31.7 7.2 9 22.8

33.9 6.9 9.5 24.3

36 6.1 10.1 25.8

38.1 5.9 10.8 27.3

40.4 6 11.4 29

42.7 5.9 12 30.7

22.4 5.3

23.3 3.8

24.5 5.1

25.7 5.1

27 5.1

28.5 5.2

29.7 4.3

30.8 3.9

32 3.9

33.3 3.9

68.2 62.6

70.1 63.4

73.2 64.9

76.4 66.4

79.8 68.1

83.2 69.9

86.2 71.1

89.1 72.1

92.2 73.2

95.3 74.3

50.8 3

52.6 3.5

54.5 3.7

56.6 3.9

59 4.2

61.4 4

63.8 4

66.3 3.9

68.9 3.9

71.7 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

136.3 4.7

140.5 3.1

144.5 2.9

148 2.4

151.1 2.1

154.8 2.4

158.4 2.3

161.6 2

164.5 1.8

167.2 1.6

3.5 5.5

3.5 0.6

3.6 0.9

3.6 0.6

3.6 0.2

3.6 -0.1

3.6 -0.3

3.6 -0.4

3.6 -0.5

3.5 -0.5

132.8 4.7

137 3.1

141 2.9

144.4 2.4

147.5 2.2

151.2 2.5

154.8 2.3

158 2.1

161 1.9

163.6 1.7

13.6 12.6

14.8 8.8

16.1 8.9

17.2 6.5

17.8 3.7

18.4 3.2

19 3.1

19.4 2.4

19.9 2.2

20.2 2

27 5

27.5 2

28 1.8

28.5 1.7

28.8 1.3

29.4 1.8

29.9 2

30.4 1.7

30.9 1.4

31.2 1.2

4 21.3 1.7

4.1 21.6 1.8

4.3 21.8 1.9

4.5 22 1.9

4.6 22.1 2

4.7 22.5 2

4.9 22.9 2.1

5 23.3 2.1

5.1 23.6 2.1

5.2 23.9 2.2

1.5 2.5

1.6 1.5

1.6 3.7

1.6 1.2

1.7 1.5

1.7 2.9

1.8 3.5

1.8 3.3

1.9 2.9

1.9 2.7

7.8 5.4

8 2.1

8 0.7

8.1 0.2

8.1 1

8.3 1.9

8.5 2.2

8.7 2.3

8.9 2.1

9 2

15.6 7.5

16.5 6.3

17.3 4.5

17.6 2

18.1 2.9

19 4.6

19.8 4.5

20.6 4.1

21.3 3.4

21.9 2.8

19.6 4.5

20.2 3.1

20.8 2.6

21.3 2.4

21.8 2.6

22.4 2.7

22.9 2.3

23.4 2.2

23.9 2.1

24.4 1.8

25.7 0.9

26 1.1

26.4 1.5

26.9 2

27.3 1.5

27.7 1.2

28 1.2

28.2 0.7

28.3 0.3

28.4 0.5

8.8 5

9 2.3

9.2 1.4

9.3 1.7

9.5 2

9.7 2

9.9 1.9

10.1 1.7

10.2 1.7

10.4 1.8

0.6 -0.2

0.6 -0.3

0.6 -0.1

0.6 -0.2

0.6 0.3

0.7 17.2

0.6 -11.3

0.6 1.1

0.6 1.1

0.6 0.8

12.5 1.3

12.7 1.3

13 2.3

13.3 2.8

13.7 2.8

14 2.5

14.4 2.4

14.7 2.6

15.1 2.5

15.4 2.2

358 2.4

367.6 2.7

377.4 2.7

387.2 2.6

397.1 2.6

407.1 2.5

417.2 2.5

427.5 2.5

437.8 2.4

448.2 2.4

165 2.3

171.8 4.2

178.5 3.9

185 3.6

191 3.2

196.6 2.9

202.2 2.8

208 2.9

213.7 2.8

218.9 2.4

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5

5.1

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.3

3695 2398 1298

4465 2257 2208

4921 2517 2405

5210 2684 2526

5421 2761 2661

5652 2853 2800

5825 2905 2920

5950 2984 2966

6089 3060 3029

6165 3151 3014

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

83


Naples – Marco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2015

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

45.3 5.9 12.7 32.5

48.8 7.8 13.5 35.3

51.9 6.4 14.3 37.7

55.2 6.2 15.1 40.1

58.5 6.1 16 42.5

62 6 16.9 45.2

65.9 6.3 17.9 48.1

70.1 6.4 18.9 51.2

74.6 6.3 20 54.6

79.3 6.2 21.1 58.2

34.6 4.1

36.1 4.3

37.7 4.4

39.3 4.1

40.8 4

42.5 4

44.2 4.1

46.1 4.3

48 4.2

50 4.1

98.7 75.5

105.1 77.9

109.4 79.5

113.7 81

118.1 82.4

122.6 83.9

127.6 85.5

132.8 87.3

138.3 89.1

143.9 90.8

74.5 4

77.6 4.1

80.7 4

83.8 3.8

87 3.8

90.2 3.7

93.6 3.7

97 3.6

100.4 3.6

104 3.5

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

170.1 1.8

173.3 1.9

176.3 1.7

179.5 1.8

182.9 1.9

186.3 1.8

190.3 2.2

194.6 2.3

198.6 2

202.1 1.8

3.5 -0.7

3.5 -0.7

3.5 -0.8

3.4 -0.6

3.4 -0.4

3.4 -0.2

3.4 -0.1

3.4 -0.3

3.4 -0.2

3.4 -0.1

166.6 1.8

169.9 1.9

172.8 1.8

176 1.9

179.5 1.9

182.8 1.9

186.9 2.2

191.2 2.3

195.2 2.1

198.7 1.8

20.7 2.1

21.3 3

21.7 1.8

22 1.5

22.4 1.7

22.9 2.3

23.6 3.1

24.2 2.7

24.8 2.3

25.2 1.6

31.7 1.5

32.2 1.4

32.6 1.3

33.1 1.5

33.6 1.5

34 1.3

34.6 1.7

35.2 1.7

35.8 1.7

36.3 1.6

5.2 24.2 2.2

5.3 24.6 2.2

5.4 24.9 2.3

5.5 25.3 2.3

5.5 25.7 2.4

5.6 26.1 2.4

5.6 26.5 2.4

5.7 27 2.4

5.7 27.6 2.5

5.8 28.1 2.5

2 1.8

2 2.2

2 2.5

2.1 2.5

2.1 2.4

2.2 2

2.2 2.4

2.3 2.5

2.4 2.6

2.4 2.9

9.2 1.8

9.5 3

9.6 1.8

9.8 2

10 2.1

10.2 2

10.5 2.3

10.7 2.2

10.9 2.1

11.1 2

22.7 3.5

23.6 4.2

24.5 3.6

25.3 3.4

26.3 3.9

27.2 3.4

28.3 4.1

29.7 4.7

30.8 3.7

31.8 3.1

24.8 1.8

25.2 1.5

25.6 1.9

26.2 2.2

26.8 2.3

27.4 2.1

28 2.3

28.7 2.5

29.4 2.3

29.9 1.9

28.5 0.4

28.6 0.4

28.8 0.6

29 0.9

29.3 0.9

29.5 0.7

29.8 1

30.2 1.1

30.5 1

30.8 0.9

10.7 2.4

10.9 1.9

11.1 1.7

11.3 1.7

11.4 1.8

11.6 1.6

11.8 1.5

12 1.5

12.2 1.7

12.4 1.7

0.6 0.8

0.7 3.1

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.5

0.8 8.1

0.7 -3.7

0.7 1.6

0.7 1.5

0.8 1.5

15.8 2.1

15.9 1.1

16.2 1.6

16.5 1.6

16.7 1.6

17 1.5

17.3 1.5

17.5 1.5

17.8 1.4

18 1.5

458.9 2.4

464.2 1.2

474.6 2.2

485 2.2

495.5 2.2

506.2 2.2

516.8 2.1

528 2.2

539.3 2.1

550.8 2.1

223.3 2

225.3 0.9

229.5 1.8

234.4 2.2

239.8 2.3

245.3 2.3

250.9 2.3

256.6 2.3

262.5 2.3

268.4 2.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

84

5.2

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

6171 3152 3019

6424 3132 3292

6726 3094 3632

6792 2979 3813

6890 2992 3898

7063 3069 3994

7071 3082 3989

6956 2964 3992

6929 2977 3952

6924 3022 3902

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


N aples – M arco I sland

Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

84.1 6.1 22.2 61.9

89.2 6 23.4 65.8

94.4 5.8 24.6 69.8

100.1 6 25.9 74.1

106.2 6.1 27.3 78.8

112.6 6 28.8 83.8

119.4 6 30.4 89

126.5 6 32 94.5

134 5.9 33.8 100.2

142 6 35.7 106.3

52 4

54.1 3.9

56.1 3.7

58.2 3.9

60.5 3.9

62.8 3.9

65.3 3.9

67.8 3.8

70.3 3.8

73 3.8

149.6 92.5

155.3 94.2

161.1 95.7

167.3 97.4

173.9 99.1

180.7 100.9

187.9 102.8

195.2 104.6

202.9 106.5

211 108.5

107.6 3.5

111.4 3.5

115.2 3.5

119.3 3.5

123.5 3.5

127.9 3.5

132.4 3.5

137 3.5

142 3.6

147.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

205.7 1.8

209.4 1.8

213.1 1.7

216.9 1.8

220.7 1.8

224.6 1.8

229 1.9

233.1 1.8

237.5 1.9

242.1 1.9

3.4 -0.1

3.4 -0.2

3.4 -0.3

3.4 -0.2

3.4 -0.2

3.4 -0.4

3.3 -0.3

3.3 -0.5

3.3 -0.3

3.3 -0.3

202.3 1.8

206 1.9

209.7 1.8

213.5 1.8

217.4 1.8

221.3 1.8

225.6 2

229.8 1.8

234.2 1.9

238.8 2

25.6 1.7

26.1 2

26.6 1.9

27.1 2

27.7 2

28.1 1.5

28.7 2

29.2 1.8

29.6 1.6

30.1 1.7

36.9 1.6

37.5 1.7

38.1 1.5

38.7 1.6

39.3 1.5

39.9 1.4

40.5 1.5

41.1 1.4

41.7 1.5

42.3 1.6

5.8 28.6 2.5

5.9 29.2 2.5

5.9 29.7 2.5

5.9 30.3 2.5

6 30.8 2.5

6 31.4 2.5

6.1 31.9 2.5

6.2 32.4 2.5

6.3 32.9 2.5

6.4 33.4 2.5

2.5 3

2.6 2.9

2.6 2.7

2.7 2.7

2.8 2.6

2.8 2.3

2.9 2.9

3 2.3

3 1.8

3.1 1.7

11.4 1.9

11.6 1.8

11.8 1.8

12 1.9

12.2 1.7

12.4 1.8

12.6 1.8

12.9 1.7

13.1 1.7

13.3 1.6

32.7 3

33.7 3.1

34.7 2.9

35.6 2.7

36.7 2.9

37.8 3.2

39.3 3.9

40.9 4

42.7 4.5

44.7 4.6

30.5 1.8

31 1.9

31.7 2

32.3 2.1

33.1 2.2

33.8 2.2

34.5 2.2

35.1 1.8

35.7 1.7

36.4 1.7

31.1 1

31.4 1

31.6 0.8

31.9 0.9

32.2 0.9

32.4 0.7

32.6 0.7

32.8 0.3

32.9 0.3

33 0.4

12.6 1.5

12.8 1.5

12.9 1.3

13.1 1.3

13.3 1.4

13.5 1.2

13.6 1.2

13.8 1.1

13.9 1

14 1

0.8 1.6

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.5

0.8 1.4

0.8 1.2

0.9 5.8

0.8 -3

0.8 1.6

0.9 0.9

0.9 1.6

18.3 1.4

18.6 1.5

18.8 1.4

19.1 1.4

19.4 1.5

19.7 1.5

20 1.5

20.3 1.5

20.6 1.8

21 1.8

562.3 2.1

574.1 2.1

586 2.1

598.1 2.1

610.4 2

622.8 2

635.2 2

647.9 2

660.2 1.9

672.7 1.9

274.6 2.3

280.7 2.2

286.9 2.2

293 2.1

299.4 2.2

305.6 2.1

311.8 2

317.9 2

324.3 2

330.6 2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.8

6930 3087 3842

6866 3092 3775

6768 3090 3679

6733 3093 3640

6671 3062 3609

6667 3077 3590

6654 3112 3542

6621 3105 3516

6630 3147 3483

6633 3206 3427

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

85


Ocala

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.9 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is the third lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $35,200. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the second lowest average annual wage level at $42,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent, the highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7,892.28 million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.5 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 6.2 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining Services sector is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 7.4 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with 4.7 percent average annual growth. The Federal Government sector is expected to experience a decline with an average annual growth rate of -1.8 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 131,359 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 6.2% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,116 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Marion County School Board – 6,071

• Munroe Regional Medical Center – 2,648 • State of Florida (all departments) – 2,600 • Wal-Mart – 2,370

• Ocala Regional Health System – 2,020 • Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 1,488

• Marion County Board of County Commissioners – 1,462

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• City of Ocala – 994

As construction picks up, shortage of skilled workers felt by industry

• AT&T – 1,000

• Lockheed Martin Employees – 981

Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership

• As the economy continues to pick up, so is construction and the need for skilled workers. Many workers left the construction field once the economy took a turn for the worse, so now contractors are struggling to find workers.

• The area is offering multiple apprentice programs for people who are seeking work and need training in the construction, technical, or electrical fields. The county is hoping these programs will fill the gap in the field by offering night classes. Students can then get handson training during the day by working with sponsoring contractors. 86

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


O cala

• The programs are open to anyone, even if their field of study has nothing to do with construction. Contractors hope people will see that work is starting to pick up, so they will be attracted to construction, hopefully bringing in more workers.

improvements made to the businesses there, more businesses will open in the same area.

• Applications will be graded on a point system and priority based on location, vacancy, and commercial use. The city is hoping to have the funds renewed each year.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 26, 2015

Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 27, 2015

Programs aim to fill skilled-workers gap

County Commission gets clean audit, delays decision on MCSO body cameras

• Ocala is struggling in the software and information technology industry. The community is offering technical training for people and businesses, so there will be a push to increase the workface in the area. • Kevin T. Sheilley, president of the Ocala/ Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership, brings Ocala’s IT Professionals together to talk about issues, training, and how to improve their programs. They also discuss the gap they are facing in the workforce and how to encourage people to come into the IT profession.

• CareerSource CLM and Marion Regional Manufacturers Association are offering apprenticeships for manufacturers in key areas like CNC operator, CNC programmer, and industrial maintenance technician. The professionals in the community are doing their best to fill the void in the skilled workers gap in information technology.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 26, 2015

Business grants available for West Ocala businesses

• The West Ocala Business Revitalization and Accessibility grant is giving out a total of $50,000 for business to improve their buildings. The money amounts to about $15,000 per business that applies. The money will be used to improve the interiors, exteriors, and increase accessibility to businesses. • Mary Sue Rich, City Councilwomen who represents west Ocala, is hoping with the

• Ocala is in the clear with their Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, as external auditors have given them the thumbs up. Commissioners discussed health insurance renewal, body cameras for MCSO, and the approval of a new deputy growth service director. • A representative from the Marion County Sheriff’s Office talked about funding body cameras for law enforcement officers. These would protect officers from assault and traffic accidents along with helping in determining convictions. The commission put a hold on pursuing the funding because of financial and feasibility concerns.

• The commission approved the appointment of the new county’s deputy growth services director, Samuel Martsolf. They also discussed raising the fee for the Professional Firefighters Union of Marion County.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, June 2, 2015

Paddock Park Apartments has new name, management

• Since 1986, Ocala community members have been familiar with Paddock Park Apartments, but shortly it will have a new name and management. • The 44-acre property has been overtaken by a Georgia company, Pegasus Residential.

• There are four different floor plans ranging from $700 to $900.

Source: Ocala Star Banner, June 5, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

87


Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate

(percent) 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate

Ocala Payroll Employment 160.0

(Thousands)

140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Ocala Payroll Employment 88

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Ocala Real Gross Metro Product 18000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 8000.0 6000.0 4000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Ocala Real Personal Income

(percent change year ago) 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


O cala

Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

12.5 5.5 3.9 8.6

12.7 4.9 3.9 8.7

12.8 4.5 4 8.8

12.9 4.4 4.1 8.9

13.1 4.6 4.1 9

13.3 4.8 4.2 9.1

13.5 5.4 4.2 9.2

13.7 6.1 4.3 9.4

14 6.5 4.4 9.6

14.2 6.8 4.4 9.7

14.4 6.9 4.5 9.9

14.6 6.7 4.6 10

14.9 6.6 4.7 10.2

15.1 6.7 4.7 10.4

15.4 6.8 4.8 10.6

15.6 6.8 4.9 10.7

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

11.5 5.2

11.6 4.9

11.7 4.5

11.8 4

11.9 3.3

12 3.3

12.1 3.6

12.3 4.1

12.5 4.5

12.6 4.8

12.7 4.9

12.9 4.7

13 4.5

13.2 4.6

13.3 4.7

13.5 4.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

36.6 33.8

36.9 34

37.1 34

37.4 34.2

37.7 34.4

38.1 34.5

38.5 34.7

39 34.9

39.5 35.3

39.9 35.5

40.3 35.7

40.8 35.9

41.2 36.1

41.7 36.4

42.2 36.6

42.6 36.8

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

39.5 1.7

39.8 2.1

40.2 3.1

40.5 3.4

40.9 3.5

41.3 3.6

41.6 3.7

42.1 3.9

42.4 3.9

42.9 3.9

43.3 3.9

43.7 3.9

44.2 4

44.6 4.1

45.1 4.2

45.6 4.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

97.6 4.1

98.3 3.8

99 3

99.5 2.2

100.1 2.5

100.7 2.4

101.4 2.4

102 2.5

102.6 2.5

103.2 2.5

103.8 2.4

104.4 2.4

104.8 2.2

105.3 2.1

105.8 1.9

106.2 1.8

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 5.2

7.5 3.9

7.5 2.7

7.5 0.9

7.5 0.3

7.5 0

7.5 0.2

7.5 0

7.5 0.2

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.2

7.5 0

7.5 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

90.1 4

90.9 3.8

91.5 3

92 2.3

92.6 2.7

93.2 2.6

93.9 2.6

94.5 2.7

95.1 2.7

95.7 2.6

96.3 2.6

96.9 2.5

97.3 2.3

97.8 2.2

98.3 2.1

98.7 1.9

6.3 1.7

6.4 3.6

6.5 4.6

6.6 5

6.8 6.7

6.9 8.7

7.1 9.8

7.3 10.9

7.5 11.1

7.7 10.9

7.8 10

8 8.8

8.1 7.8

8.2 7.1

8.3 6.5

8.4 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 5.1

23 4.4

23.2 4.7

23.3 3.7

23.3 2.4

23.4 1.7

23.5 1

23.5 0.8

23.6 1

23.7 1.2

23.8 1.5

23.9 1.7

24 1.7

24 1.4

24.1 1

24.1 0.8

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 16.2 3.3

3.3 16.3 3.4

3.3 16.5 3.4

3.4 16.5 3.4

3.4 16.5 3.5

3.4 16.5 3.5

3.4 16.5 3.5

3.4 16.5 3.6

3.5 16.5 3.6

3.5 16.5 3.6

3.5 16.6 3.7

3.5 16.6 3.7

3.6 16.6 3.7

3.6 16.6 3.8

3.6 16.6 3.8

3.6 16.6 3.8

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

0.8 -4.6

0.8 -3.5

0.8 -0.4

0.8 0.2

0.8 1.4

0.8 0.6

0.8 0.5

0.8 0.2

0.8 2.8

0.8 3.5

0.8 2.9

0.8 2.7

0.8 0.9

0.8 0.1

0.8 0.4

0.8 0.2

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

4.1 -1.2

4.2 1.5

4.2 2.1

4.2 2.9

4.2 2.4

4.2 1.6

4.2 0.9

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.3

4.2 0.1

4.2 0

4.2 -0.1

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.3

4.2 -0.5

4.2 -0.6

9.8 4.2

10 2.5

10.1 4.5

10.3 5.4

10.5 6.7

10.7 6.9

10.8 7.4

11 6.8

11.1 6.3

11.3 5.6

11.3 4.6

11.4 3.8

11.5 2.9

11.5 2.6

11.6 2.5

11.7 2.2

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

17.9 24.4

18 6.1

18.2 3

18.2 1

18.3 2.3

18.5 2.6

18.6 2.7

18.8 3.2

18.8 2.8

18.9 2.3

19 2

19.1 2

19.2 2

19.3 2.1

19.4 2.2

19.5 2.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

11.3 4.2

11.4 3.7

11.4 1.7

11.4 -0.1

11.5 1.5

11.5 0.9

11.5 0.7

11.5 0.7

11.5 0.8

11.6 1.2

11.7 1.7

11.7 2.1

11.8 2

11.8 2.1

11.9 1.9

12 1.8

3.1 2.9

3.1 1.3

3.1 1.2

3.1 4.5

3.2 2

3.2 1.7

3.2 1.4

3.2 1.3

3.2 1.1

3.2 0.8

3.2 0.6

3.2 0.5

3.2 0.7

3.2 0.9

3.2 1.2

3.2 1.4

0.7 -5.1

0.7 -4.8

0.7 -5.1

0.7 -5.2

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -1.1

0.7 -1

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.5

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.7 -0.7

0.6 -0.6

13.4 -13.4

13.4 2.8

13.4 0.6

13.4 -0.2

13.4 0.5

13.5 0.4

13.5 0.6

13.5 1

13.6 1.3

13.7 1.6

13.8 1.9

13.8 2.1

13.9 2.1

14 2.2

14.1 2.3

14.1 2.3

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

341.8 1

342.9 1.1

344.1 1.2

345.4 1.4

346.9 1.5

348.5 1.6

350.1 1.8

351.8 1.9

353.5 1.9

355.3 1.9

357.1 2

358.9 2

360.6 2

362.5 2

364.4 2

366.3 2.1

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

132.9 1

134.1 1.4

134.6 1.1

135 0.4

135.4 1.9

135.9 1.3

136.4 1.4

137 1.5

137.5 1.6

138.1 1.7

138.9 1.8

139.6 1.9

140.2 2

141 2

141.8 2.1

142.5 2.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)

6.8

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.1

6.1

6.1

6.1

6

6

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.4

Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

991 987 4

1225 1203 23

1566 1517 49

1845 1766 79

2109 2000 109

2328 2189 139

2574 2411 163

2769 2575 194

2895 2688 207

2954 2744 210

2999 2788 211

3038 2824 214

3109 2893 217

3180 2962 219

3218 2990 228

3237 3004 234

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

89


Ocala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

10.4 5.5 3.7 6.7

10.6 1.6 3.7 6.9

10.3 -2.9 3.4 6.9

10.7 4.3 3.3 7.4

11.6 8.1 3.4 8.2

11.4 -1.5 3.5 7.9

11.6 1.9 3.6 8

12.1 4.5 3.7 8.4

10.7 2.9

10.6 -1.4

10.3 -2.8

10.5 2.6

11.1 5.5

10.8 -3.3

10.8 0.7

11.2 3.1

31.9 32.9

32.1 32

31 31

32.3 31.7

34.8 33.4

34.1 32.1

34.5 32.2

35.7 32.9

35 0.9

36 3

36.1 0.3

36.5 0.9

37.2 1.9

37.8 1.6

38.2 1.2

39 2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106.2 0.6

101.3 -4.6

92.6 -8.6

90.3 -2.4

89.7 -0.7

91 1.4

92.8 2

95.5 2.9

9.6 -3

8.3 -13.9

6.7 -19.3

6.4 -3.7

6.4 0.4

6.7 4.5

6.9 3

7.3 4.7

96.6 1

93.1 -3.7

85.9 -7.7

83.9 -2.3

83.3 -0.7

84.2 1.1

85.9 2

88.3 2.8

11.6 -7.6

9.7 -16.9

7.3 -24.3

6.3 -13.7

5.7 -9.8

5.4 -5.9

5.8 8.3

6.2 7.2

23.5 1.8

22.4 -4.5

20.2 -9.9

19.8 -2

20.2 2.3

20.9 3.3

21.5 2.8

22.1 2.8

4.4 16.4 2.6

4.1 15.7 2.6

3.5 14.5 2.1

3.4 14.4 2.1

3.3 14.7 2.3

3.4 14.9 2.7

3.4 15.1 3

3.2 15.7 3.2

1.5 -12.3

1.4 -6.7

1.2 -16.1

1 -14.9

1 0.1

0.9 -10

0.8 -6.4

0.8 -4.9

6 3.6

5.9 -0.6

5.1 -13.3

4.2 -18.6

4.2 0.8

4.2 -0.2

4.2 -0.1

4.1 -2

9 -7.1

8.6 -4.4

8.3 -4.3

7.9 -4.4

7.9 0.3

8.6 8.3

9.1 5.7

9.6 6.3

13.3 4.8

13.5 1.5

12.9 -4.3

13.4 4.1

13.8 2.9

14.3 3.1

14.4 0.6

16.7 16.7

10.6 9.5

10.4 -2

10 -3.8

10.1 0.9

10.1 0.4

10.3 2.2

10.6 2.8

11.1 4.5

4 5

3.6 -9.2

3.3 -8.3

3.4 0.7

3.1 -6.2

2.8 -11.6

2.9 3

3 6.1

0.7 0

0.7 2.3

0.7 1.1

0.9 27.6

0.7 -24.3

0.7 0

0.7 0.1

0.7 0

16.5 2.9

16.8 2.1

16.9 0.4

16.9 0.3

16.4 -3

16.2 -1.4

15.9 -1.5

13.8 -13.3

325.9 2.7

329.9 1.2

330.9 0.3

331.7 0.2

332.8 0.3

334.7 0.6

336.6 0.6

339.6 0.9

135.1 3.8

135.6 0.4

132.7 -2.2

132.4 -0.2

131 -1

130.6 -0.3

131.2 0.5

132.8 1.2

5.1

8.5

13.2

13.6

12.3

10.3

8.6

7.3

3169 2827 342

1217 1195 22

409 391 17

496 494 2

361 358 3

407 406 1

594 582 12

763 725 39

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

90

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

12.7 4.8 4 8.8

13.4 5.2 4.2 9.2

14.3 6.7 4.5 9.8

15.3 6.7 4.8 10.5

16.3 6.7 5.1 11.2

17.3 6.4 5.4 11.9

18.3 5.8 5.7 12.6

19.3 5.5 6 13.3

20.4 5.7 6.4 14.1

21.6 5.6 6.7 14.8

11.7 4.6

12.1 3.6

12.7 4.7

13.3 4.6

13.9 4.7

14.5 4.8

15.1 4

15.6 3.6

16.2 3.6

16.8 3.6

37 34

38.3 34.6

40.1 35.6

42 36.5

43.8 37.4

45.7 38.3

47.3 39.1

49 39.7

50.8 40.3

52.6 41

40 2.6

41.5 3.7

43.1 3.9

44.9 4.2

46.8 4.4

48.8 4.3

50.9 4.2

52.9 4.1

55.1 4.1

57.4 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

98.6 3.2

101 2.5

103.5 2.4

105.5 2

107.4 1.7

109.5 2

111.5 1.8

113.4 1.7

115.1 1.5

116.6 1.2

7.5 3.2

7.5 0.1

7.5 0.3

7.5 0.1

7.5 -0.2

7.5 -0.6

7.4 -0.7

7.4 -0.4

7.3 -0.5

7.3 -0.7

91.1 3.2

93.6 2.6

96 2.6

98 2.1

99.9 1.9

102.1 2.2

104.1 2

106.1 1.9

107.8 1.6

109.3 1.4

6.4 3.7

7 9

7.7 10.2

8.3 6.7

8.6 3.8

8.9 3.2

9.1 2.9

9.3 2.1

9.5 1.9

9.6 1.5

23.1 4.5

23.4 1.5

23.7 1.3

24 1.2

24.2 0.8

24.5 1.2

24.8 1.3

25.1 1.1

25.3 0.9

25.5 0.6

3.3 16.4 3.4

3.4 16.5 3.5

3.5 16.5 3.7

3.6 16.6 3.8

3.6 16.6 3.8

3.7 16.8 3.9

3.8 17 4

3.8 17.2 4.1

3.8 17.3 4.1

3.9 17.4 4.2

0.8 -2.1

0.8 0.7

0.8 3

0.8 0.4

0.8 0.3

0.8 1.9

0.9 3

0.9 2.6

0.9 2.1

0.9 1.8

4.2 1.3

4.2 1.4

4.2 0.1

4.2 -0.4

4.2 0.4

4.3 1.4

4.4 1.6

4.4 1.8

4.5 1.6

4.6 1.5

10 4.2

10.7 7

11.3 5.1

11.6 2.5

11.9 3

12.4 4.2

13 4.3

13.5 4

14 3.5

14.4 2.9

18.1 7.9

18.5 2.7

19 2.3

19.4 2.1

19.8 2.3

20.3 2.5

20.7 2.1

21.1 2

21.5 1.9

21.9 1.6

11.4 2.3

11.5 0.9

11.6 1.5

11.9 1.9

12 1.4

12.2 1.2

12.3 1.2

12.4 0.7

12.4 0.3

12.5 0.4

3.1 2.5

3.2 1.6

3.2 0.7

3.2 1.1

3.3 1.5

3.3 1.5

3.4 1.4

3.4 1.2

3.5 1.2

3.5 1.3

0.7 -5.1

0.7 -0.9

0.7 -0.6

0.7 -0.7

0.6 -0.1

0.7 14.4

0.7 -10

0.7 0.7

0.7 0.8

0.7 0.2

13.4 -3

13.5 0.6

13.7 1.7

14 2.2

14.3 2.2

14.6 1.9

14.9 1.9

15.2 2.1

15.5 2

15.8 1.7

343.5 1.2

349.4 1.7

356.2 2

363.4 2

371.1 2.1

379 2.1

386.8 2

394.5 2

402.3 2

410.1 1.9

134.1 1

136.2 1.5

138.5 1.7

141.4 2.1

144.4 2.2

147.7 2.2

150.8 2.1

154.1 2.2

157.4 2.1

160.1 1.8

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.5

6.1

6

6.3

6.5

6.3

6.1

6.1

6.2

6.2

1407 1368 38

2445 2294 151

2972 2761 211

3186 2962 224

3314 3076 238

3408 3164 244

3400 3152 248

3433 3191 242

3434 3199 235

3459 3230 229

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

91


Ocala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2015

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

22.8 5.6 7.1 15.7

24.3 6.9 7.5 16.8

25.8 6 7.9 17.9

27.3 5.7 8.3 18.9

28.8 5.6 8.8 20

30.4 5.6 9.3 21.1

32.1 5.7 9.8 22.4

34 5.8 10.3 23.7

36 5.8 10.9 25.1

38 5.7 11.4 26.6

17.4 3.7

18 3.5

18.7 3.9

19.4 3.6

20.1 3.5

20.8 3.5

21.5 3.6

22.4 3.7

23.2 3.7

24 3.6

54.5 41.7

58.3 43.2

60.7 44.1

63.1 44.9

65.5 45.7

68 46.5

70.7 47.4

73.6 48.3

76.5 49.3

79.6 50.2

59.8 4.2

62.4 4.3

65 4.2

67.7 4.1

70.4 4

73.2 3.9

76.1 3.9

79 3.8

81.9 3.8

85 3.7

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

118.2 1.4

119.6 1.2

121 1.2

122.5 1.3

124.2 1.4

125.9 1.3

127.8 1.6

130 1.7

131.9 1.5

133.5 1.2

7.2 -0.9

7.2 -1.1

7.1 -1.2

7 -1.1

6.9 -0.9

6.9 -0.7

6.8 -0.5

6.8 -0.8

6.8 -0.6

6.7 -0.5

110.9 1.5

112.4 1.4

113.9 1.3

115.5 1.4

117.3 1.5

119 1.4

121 1.7

123.2 1.8

125.2 1.6

126.8 1.3

9.8 1.5

10 2

10.1 1.3

10.2 1

10.3 1.1

10.5 1.9

10.8 2.6

11 2

11.2 1.6

11.3 1

25.7 1

25.9 0.9

26.1 0.7

26.3 0.9

26.6 0.8

26.7 0.6

27 1

27.2 1

27.5 1

27.7 0.8

3.9 17.6 4.2

3.9 17.8 4.3

3.9 17.9 4.3

3.9 18.1 4.4

3.9 18.2 4.5

3.8 18.4 4.5

3.8 18.6 4.5

3.8 18.8 4.6

3.8 19.1 4.6

3.8 19.3 4.6

0.9 0.9

0.9 1.7

1 1.7

1 1.6

1 1.6

1 1.1

1 1.5

1 1.6

1 1.8

1.1 2

4.6 1.3

4.8 2.4

4.8 1.3

4.9 1.4

5 1.5

5 1.5

5.1 1.7

5.2 1.6

5.3 1.6

5.4 1.4

14.8 3.3

15.4 3.5

15.8 3

16.3 2.8

16.8 3.3

17.3 2.8

17.9 3.5

18.6 4.1

19.2 3.1

19.7 2.5

22.2 1.6

22.5 1.2

22.9 1.6

23.3 1.9

23.8 2

24.2 1.9

24.7 2.1

25.3 2.2

25.8 2

26.2 1.6

12.5 0.3

12.6 0.3

12.6 0.5

12.7 0.8

12.8 0.8

12.9 0.6

13 0.9

13.2 1

13.3 0.9

13.4 0.8

3.6 1.9

3.6 1.3

3.7 1.2

3.7 1.2

3.7 1.2

3.8 1.1

3.8 0.9

3.9 1

3.9 1.2

3.9 1.1

0.7 0

0.7 3.3

0.7 1.2

0.7 1.1

0.7 1.1

0.8 7.6

0.8 -4.1

0.8 1.1

0.8 1

0.8 1.1

16 1.6

16.1 0.4

16.3 1

16.4 1.1

16.6 1.1

16.8 1

16.9 0.9

17.1 0.9

17.2 0.9

17.4 0.9

418 1.9

417.9 0

425.1 1.7

432.4 1.7

439.7 1.7

447.1 1.7

454.7 1.7

462.3 1.7

470 1.7

477.7 1.6

162.3 1.4

162.5 0.1

164.4 1.2

166.8 1.5

169.5 1.6

172.2 1.6

175 1.6

177.8 1.6

180.6 1.6

183.5 1.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

92

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.4

3411 3186 225

3379 3136 243

3331 3068 263

3200 2927 273

3187 2911 276

3237 2957 279

3217 2941 276

3075 2801 274

3056 2787 269

3067 2803 264

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


O cala

Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

40.1 5.6 12 28.2

42.3 5.5 12.6 29.8

44.6 5.3 13.2 31.4

47 5.5 13.8 33.2

49.6 5.5 14.5 35.1

52.4 5.5 15.2 37.1

55.2 5.5 16 39.2

58.2 5.4 16.8 41.4

61.4 5.4 17.7 43.6

64.7 5.4 18.7 46

24.8 3.5

25.7 3.4

26.5 3.2

27.4 3.3

28.3 3.3

29.2 3.3

30.2 3.4

31.2 3.3

32.2 3.3

33.3 3.3

82.6 51.1

85.8 52

88.9 52.8

92.3 53.7

95.9 54.7

99.6 55.6

103.5 56.6

107.4 57.5

111.5 58.5

115.9 59.6

88.2 3.7

91.4 3.7

94.8 3.7

98.3 3.7

102 3.7

105.7 3.7

109.7 3.7

113.7 3.7

118 3.8

122.6 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

135.2 1.2

136.9 1.3

138.5 1.2

140.1 1.2

141.8 1.2

143.5 1.2

145.5 1.4

147.5 1.4

149.7 1.5

152 1.5

6.7 -0.5

6.6 -0.6

6.6 -0.7

6.6 -0.6

6.5 -0.7

6.5 -0.8

6.4 -0.8

6.3 -0.9

6.3 -0.8

6.3 -0.8

128.5 1.3

130.2 1.3

131.9 1.3

133.6 1.3

135.3 1.3

137.1 1.3

139.1 1.5

141.1 1.5

143.4 1.6

145.7 1.6

11.4 1.1

11.6 1.4

11.7 1.3

11.9 1.5

12.1 1.6

12.2 1.2

12.4 1.7

12.7 1.8

12.9 1.5

13.1 1.7

28 0.8

28.2 0.9

28.4 0.7

28.6 0.8

28.8 0.7

29 0.6

29.2 0.7

29.4 0.6

29.6 0.7

29.9 0.8

3.8 19.6 4.6

3.8 19.8 4.6

3.7 20.1 4.6

3.7 20.4 4.6

3.7 20.6 4.6

3.7 20.8 4.5

3.7 21 4.5

3.7 21.2 4.5

3.7 21.4 4.5

3.7 21.6 4.5

1.1 2.2

1.1 2.1

1.1 1.9

1.2 1.8

1.2 1.7

1.2 1.5

1.2 2.1

1.2 2.3

1.3 2

1.3 1.9

5.4 1.3

5.5 1.3

5.6 1.3

5.6 1.4

5.7 1.2

5.8 1.2

5.9 1.3

5.9 1.2

6 1.1

6.1 1

20.2 2.4

20.6 2.5

21.1 2.3

21.6 2.1

22.1 2.3

22.6 2.6

23.4 3.3

24.2 3.4

25.1 3.8

26.1 4

26.6 1.6

27 1.6

27.5 1.6

27.9 1.7

28.4 1.8

29 1.8

29.5 1.8

30 1.8

30.5 1.8

31.1 1.8

13.5 0.9

13.6 0.9

13.7 0.8

13.9 0.8

14 0.8

14.1 0.6

14.1 0.6

14.2 0.5

14.3 0.6

14.4 0.6

4 1

4 1

4.1 0.7

4.1 0.7

4.1 0.8

4.1 0.7

4.2 0.7

4.2 0.6

4.2 0.4

4.2 0.4

0.8 1.2

0.8 1.1

0.8 1

0.8 1

0.8 0.8

0.9 5.3

0.8 -3.4

0.8 1.2

0.8 0.5

0.9 1.2

17.5 0.9

17.7 0.9

17.8 0.8

18 0.8

18.1 0.7

18.2 0.6

18.3 0.7

18.4 0.6

18.6 0.9

18.8 0.9

485.5 1.6

493.4 1.6

501.3 1.6

509.3 1.6

517.4 1.6

525.5 1.6

533.6 1.5

542.1 1.6

550.3 1.5

558.4 1.5

186.4 1.6

189.3 1.6

192.1 1.5

194.9 1.5

197.8 1.5

200.5 1.4

203.2 1.3

205.8 1.3

208.4 1.3

211.1 1.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.5

6.5

6.6

6.6

6.7

6.7

3097 2838 259

3072 2818 253

3038 2793 246

3015 2773 242

2961 2723 238

2960 2724 236

2977 2745 232

2960 2730 230

2985 2757 228

3023 2798 224

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

93


O rlando – K issimmee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America’s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $36,800. Average annual wage growth will be 3.2 percent. The average annual wage will be at a level of $49,300. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 2.3 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 122,645.30 million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.0 percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.0 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 9.3 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.4 percent, and the Educational and Health Services sector at 2.9 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline.

QUICK FACTS: • • • • • • •

MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,200,779 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.9% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 58,446 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • Walt Disney World Resort – 69,000 • Orange County Public Schools – 22,000 • Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) – 17,600 • Universal Orlando (Comcast) – 17,300 • Orlando Health – 14,310 • University of Central Florida – 11,078 • Seminole County Public Schools – 7,786 • Orange County Government – 7,553 • Darden Restaurants Inc. – 7,600 • Osceola County Public Schools – 6,560 • SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment – 6,032 • Lockheed Martin Corporation – 5,774 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 94

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Orlando-area home sales hit level not seen since June 2005

• The Orlando Regional Realtor Association (ORRA) reported March home sales that showed 25 percent increases from a year earlier. The sales statistic of 3,067 homes was also the highest seen since June of 2005. • The median single-family home sale price rose 8.33 percent. Condo sales also saw growth, increasing 8.59 percent since March of 2014.

• ORRA’s President, Sharon Voss, attributes the increase in home and condo sales to low interest rates, increases in inventory, and stronger consumer confidence.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 16, 2015


O rlando – K issimmee

Delta, American Airlines, United duel with Persian Gulf airliner good for Orlando biz

• Three major airlines have petitioned the federal government to freeze international flights from government-owned operators based in the Persian Gulf because of their ability to out-price U.S. carriers.

• Increased competition between airlines traveling to and from the Middle East, and thus lower prices, could make Orlando’s tourism and travel market available to consumers in that region. • Emirates, a Persian Gulf Airline, announced that it would start providing weekly flights from Dubai in the fall, which has the potential to increase tourism to Orlando.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 15, 2015

Florida smashes all-time record quarter for tourism • There were 28.4 million visitors to Florida in the first quarter of 2015, a 6.2 increase over first quarter last year. This exceeded the record for the number of visitors to Florida in a quarter.

• Despite the improving employment statistics, a poll from Express Employment Professionals found that a high percentage, 41 percent, of the Florida population of unemployed have “given up looking for a job.”

Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 22, 2015

New 28-story tower proposed on shores of Lake Eola

• Development in downtown Orlando has been strong, and the latest project is a proposed mixed-use high rise on the edge of Lake Eola.

• The proposal includes a 28-story building to serve residential and commercial needs, with 215 multifamily units and 25,000 square feet of commercial space.

• The building would replace the City Centre building located at 205 E. Central Blvd., as well as the two surrounding buildings.

Source: Orlando Sentinel, June 3, 2015

• The tourism industry also benefited from an increase in travel-related jobs, which was up 4.8 in the 1st quarter of 2015 from the 1st quarter of 2014. • All of this growth in tourism means good news for Orlando, as it is the state’s tourism hub. In 2014, the Orlando metro saw 62 million visitors, which was a record for the U.S. travel industry.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 15, 2015

Orlando metro jobless rate drops to 4.9 percent

• The April jobs report showed 47,200 new jobs added in Orlando during the 12 months ending on April 30. • Unemployment dropped to 4.9 percent, a 0.8 percent decrease from a year earlier. Much of the growth in Orlando was due to the tourism industry, but professional and business services and financial services have also benefited.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

95


O rlando – K issimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

0.8

350000.0

8.0%

200000.0

1.6

1.8

(Millions 2000 $)

150000.0

4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate

100000.0 50000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Orlando Real Personal Income

Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands)

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1800.0

4.0%

1600.0

2.0%

1400.0

0.0%

1200.0

-2.0%

1000.0

-4.0%

800.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Orlando Payroll Employment 96

1.4

300000.0 250000.0

2000.0

1.2

Orlando Real Gross Metro Product

10.0% 6.0%

1

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

-6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


O rlando – K issimmee

Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

91.5 5.7 52.8 38.7

92.5 5.2 53.6 38.9

93.7 5.4 54.5 39.2

94.9 5.4 55.3 39.6

96.6 5.5 56.2 40.3

98 5.9 57.1 40.9

99.6 6.4 57.9 41.7

101.3 6.8 58.9 42.4

103.2 6.9 59.8 43.4

104.8 7 60.8 44.1

106.5 6.9 61.7 44.7

108.2 6.7 62.7 45.4

110 6.6 63.6 46.3

111.6 6.4 64.6 47

113.2 6.3 65.5 47.7

114.8 6.1 66.5 48.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

84.4 5.5

85.1 5.2

85.8 5.4

86.5 4.6

87.5 3.7

88.3 3.8

89.4 4.1

90.5 4.6

91.7 4.8

92.7 4.9

93.6 4.7

94.6 4.5

95.6 4.3

96.5 4.2

97.4 4.1

98.3 4

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.6 35.6

38.8 35.6

39 35.7

39.3 35.8

39.7 36

40.1 36.1

40.5 36.4

41 36.6

41.5 36.9

42 37.1

42.4 37.3

42.8 37.4

43.3 37.7

43.7 37.8

44.1 38

44.5 38.1

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

46.3 1.3

46.6 1.9

47 2.2

47.3 2.7

47.7 3

48.1 3.2

48.5 3.2

48.9 3.3

49.4 3.5

49.8 3.6

50.3 3.8

50.8 3.9

51.3 4

51.9 4

52.4 4

52.9 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1134.8 4.3

1145.2 4

1154.7 4.3

1164.4 3.8

1173.4 3.4

1181.8 3.2

1190.4 3.1

1199.5 3

1207.5 2.9

1215.1 2.8

1222.4 2.7

1229.5 2.5

1235.3 2.3

1241.1 2.1

1246.9 2

1252.5 1.9

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

40.4 3.1

40.5 2.7

40.5 2.3

40.7 1.5

40.9 1.4

41 1.3

41.1 1.4

41.1 0.9

41.2 0.7

41.3 0.7

41.4 0.7

41.4 0.8

41.4 0.5

41.4 0.2

41.4 0

41.4 -0.1

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1094.4 4.4

1104.7 4

1114.1 4.4

1123.7 3.8

1132.5 3.5

1140.8 3.3

1149.3 3.2

1158.5 3.1

1166.3 3

1173.8 2.9

1181 2.8

1188.1 2.6

1193.9 2.4

1199.7 2.2

1205.5 2.1

1211.1 1.9

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

60.3 12.3

61.7 11.7

63 12.2

64.4 9.5

65.8 9

67.2 8.9

68.5 8.8

70.4 9.3

72.1 9.6

73.8 9.8

75.4 10.1

76.9 9.3

78.3 8.6

79.4 7.6

80.5 6.7

81.4 5.8

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

217 4

219.1 3.4

221.1 4.4

223.1 4

224.2 3.3

225.2 2.8

226.5 2.5

227.7 2.1

228.5 1.9

229.6 1.9

230.8 1.9

231.9 1.8

232.7 1.8

233.3 1.6

234 1.4

234.5 1.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

43.8 139.8 33.1

44 141.1 33.3

44.5 141.8 33.7

45 142.6 34.2

45.3 143 34.6

45.7 143.3 35

46.1 143.7 35.4

46.6 143.9 35.8

47 144 36.2

47.3 144.5 36.6

47.7 145 36.9

48.1 145.3 37.2

48.4 145.2 37.5

48.7 145 37.8

49 145.1 37.9

49.4 145.2 38.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 2.2

24.7 2.2

24.7 1.8

24.8 1.5

24.8 1

25.2 1.6

25.3 2.8

25.1 1.6

25.3 1.8

25.5 1.2

25.5 0.5

25.5 1.3

25.6 1.2

25.7 1

25.8 1.5

25.9 1.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

70.5 0.2

70.9 1.1

71.4 3.4

71.8 2.9

72.3 2.5

72.5 2.3

72.6 1.6

72.8 1.3

72.9 0.9

72.9 0.7

72.8 0.4

72.7 -0.1

72.6 -0.4

72.5 -0.6

72.5 -0.5

72.4 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

190.2 5.4

192.8 5.2

195.1 4.6

197.7 5

200.5 5.4

203.4 5.5

206.3 5.8

209.5 5.9

212 5.8

213.5 4.9

214.7 4

216 3.1

217.4 2.6

218.5 2.4

219.4 2.2

220.6 2.1

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

136.3 2.7

137.7 3.5

138.8 4.5

139.7 3.7

141.1 3.5

142.8 3.8

144 3.7

145.3 4

145.8 3.3

146.5 2.6

147.1 2.2

147.8 1.7

148.2 1.6

149.1 1.7

149.9 1.9

150.8 2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

239.7 6.2

241.5 4.8

243.2 4.2

244.9 3.4

246.1 2.6

246.1 1.9

247.2 1.6

248.2 1.3

249.5 1.4

251.2 2.1

253.3 2.5

255.2 2.8

256.3 2.7

257.6 2.5

259.2 2.3

260.6 2.1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

37.3 3.4

37.6 4

37.8 4

38 3

38.2 2.4

38.4 2.1

38.4 1.7

38.5 1.3

38.6 1

38.7 0.8

38.7 0.7

38.8 0.7

38.9 0.9

39.1 1.1

39.3 1.4

39.4 1.7

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

12.5 1.8

12.5 1.4

12.5 2.1

12.5 0.9

12.5 0.1

12.5 0

12.5 -0.1

12.5 -0.1

12.5 -0.2

12.5 -0.1

12.5 -0.3

12.4 -0.4

12.4 -0.6

12.4 -0.7

12.4 -0.6

12.4 -0.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

106 1.1

106.3 0.7

106.6 1.3

106.8 1.3

107.1 1.1

107.5 1.1

107.9 1.3

108.4 1.5

109.1 1.8

109.6 2

110.2 2.1

110.8 2.2

111.4 2.2

112.1 2.2

112.7 2.2

113.3 2.2

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2372 2.5

2386.8 2.5

2401.7 2.5

2415.9 2.5

2429.9 2.4

2443.6 2.4

2457 2.3

2470.4 2.3

2484.4 2.2

2498.2 2.2

2511.8 2.2

2525.3 2.2

2539.3 2.2

2553.1 2.2

2566.6 2.2

2579.9 2.2

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1227.2 4.3

1238.3 3.3

1247.2 3.4

1255 3.4

1263.1 2.9

1271.6 2.7

1280 2.6

1287.7 2.6

1294.3 2.5

1301.2 2.3

1308.1 2.2

1314.5 2.1

1321.4 2.1

1328.4 2.1

1335.7 2.1

1341.7 2.1

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5

5

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

16646 10452 6194

16313 10409 5903

17334 10922 6412

18172 11453 6719

18738 11971 6767

19091 12374 6717

19543 13038 6504

20618 14099 6518

21097 14693 6404

21175 14887 6288

21341 15026 6315

21575 15130 6445

21993 15467 6525

22289 15750 6540

22567 15784 6783

22656 15726 6930

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

97


O rlando – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

73.8 4.2 45.1 28.7

74.7 1.2 45.1 29.6

70.9 -5 42 28.9

73.7 3.9 42.3 31.4

77.6 5.2 43.7 33.8

81.5 5.1 46.2 35.3

83.9 2.9 48 35.9

88.4 5.3 50.9 37.5

76 1.7

74.6 -1.8

70.9 -5

72.5 2.2

74.5 2.7

76.8 3.2

78.2 1.7

81.2 4

35.8 36.9

35.7 35.7

33.5 33.5

34.4 33.8

35.5 34.1

36.5 34.4

36.8 34.3

37.8 34.8

41.5 1.7

42.2 1.7

41.9 -0.6

42.5 1.3

43.3 2

44.6 2.9

44.9 0.8

45.9 2.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1083.4 2.5

1064.7 -1.7

997.5 -6.3

992.3 -0.5

1005.6 1.3

1031.9 2.6

1065 3.2

1104.7 3.7

44.6 -0.8

42.8 -4.1

38.7 -9.6

38 -1.8

38 0.1

38 -0.1

38.1 0.4

39.6 3.8

1038.7 2.6

1021.9 -1.6

958.8 -6.2

954.3 -0.5

967.6 1.4

993.9 2.7

1026.9 3.3

1065.1 3.7

85.4 -6.4

72.7 -14.8

54.5 -25

47.7 -12.5

45.2 -5.2

46.2 2.2

51.1 10.7

56 9.5

204 2.6

200.8 -1.6

186 -7.4

186 0

191.9 3.2

198.1 3.2

203.7 2.8

211.7 3.9

47.2 123.7 33

45.8 121.9 33.1

40.4 115.5 30.1

38.4 117.9 29.7

38.4 123.3 30.2

39 128.1 30.9

40 132.5 31.2

42 137.4 32.3

26.7 3.7

26.2 -1.8

24.8 -5.5

23.8 -4

24 0.9

23.6 -1.7

23.7 0.6

24.2 2.1

70.8 1.1

69.5 -1.8

65.9 -5.3

65.1 -1.1

65.9 1.1

67.2 2.1

69.6 3.6

69.8 0.2

180.5 4.8

176.5 -2.2

164.1 -7

161.1 -1.8

161.9 0.5

169.3 4.6

175.6 3.7

184.6 5.2

112.7 4.8

116.4 3.3

118.4 1.7

120.8 2

123.5 2.2

128.2 3.7

131.2 2.4

133.3 1.6

193.6 3.6

199.5 3.1

190.1 -4.7

195.6 2.9

203.5 4.1

210.2 3.3

219.2 4.3

231.6 5.7

48.2 4.3

43.3 -10.1

39.4 -9

38.5 -2.3

36.6 -5.1

34.8 -4.7

35.6 2.3

36.4 2.1

11.5 0.4

11.8 2.7

12.1 2.6

12.8 5.7

12 -6

12.3 2.7

12.4 0.4

12.3 -0.5

105.5 3.4

105.2 -0.3

103.6 -1.5

102.9 -0.7

103.1 0.2

104 0.9

104.7 0.7

105.3 0.5

2061 1.9

2090.2 1.4

2116.1 1.2

2145.7 1.4

2184.1 1.8

2232.9 2.2

2280.5 2.1

2335.8 2.4

1102.6 5.1

1118.5 1.4

1106.3 -1.1

1116.8 0.9

1128.8 1.1

1142.6 1.2

1161.4 1.6

1198.9 3.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

98

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.7

5.9

10.3

11.2

10.2

8.7

6.9

5.8

18041 12656 5385

10427 5593 4834

4492 3767 725

5012 4419 593

5766 4512 1254

10946 7238 3708

14836 9071 5765

15136 10229 4907


O rlando – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

93.2 5.4 54.1 39.1

98.9 6.1 57.5 41.3

105.7 6.9 61.3 44.4

112.4 6.3 65.1 47.3

119.3 6.2 69 50.3

126.7 6.1 73.2 53.5

133.9 5.7 77.4 56.5

141 5.3 81.6 59.4

148.5 5.3 85.9 62.6

156.2 5.2 90.2 66

85.4 5.2

88.9 4.1

93.1 4.8

97 4.1

100.9 4

105 4

108.9 3.7

112.6 3.4

116.3 3.3

120.1 3.2

38.9 35.7

40.3 36.3

42.2 37.2

43.9 37.9

45.7 38.6

47.5 39.4

49.2 40

50.8 40.6

52.5 41.1

54.1 41.6

46.8 2

48.3 3.2

50.1 3.7

52.1 4

54.2 3.9

56.1 3.7

58.2 3.7

60.2 3.5

62.4 3.5

64.6 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1149.8 4.1

1186.3 3.2

1218.6 2.7

1243.9 2.1

1270.1 2.1

1298.8 2.3

1325 2

1350.1 1.9

1372.2 1.6

1390.9 1.4

40.5 2.4

41 1.2

41.3 0.7

41.4 0.2

41.3 -0.3

41.1 -0.3

40.9 -0.5

40.7 -0.5

40.4 -0.7

40.1 -0.8

1109.2 4.1

1145.3 3.2

1177.3 2.8

1202.5 2.1

1228.8 2.2

1257.6 2.3

1284 2.1

1309.3 2

1331.8 1.7

1350.8 1.4

62.3 11.4

68 9

74.6 9.7

79.9 7.2

83.3 4.3

86.7 4

89.8 3.6

92.3 2.7

94.7 2.6

96.9 2.3

220 4

225.9 2.7

230.2 1.9

233.6 1.5

236.3 1.2

239 1.1

241.1 0.9

243.2 0.9

244.5 0.6

245.2 0.3

44.3 141.3 33.6

45.9 143.5 35.2

47.5 144.7 36.7

48.9 145.1 37.8

50.1 146 38.5

51.3 147.2 39

52.3 148.4 39.4

53.2 149.6 39.9

54 150.2 40.2

54.6 150.3 40.4

24.7 1.9

25.1 1.7

25.4 1.2

25.7 1.3

26.3 2

26.9 2.5

27.7 3.1

28.6 3

29.3 2.5

29.9 2.1

71.1 1.9

72.5 1.9

72.9 0.5

72.5 -0.5

72.9 0.5

73.6 1

74.4 1.1

75.4 1.4

76.4 1.3

77.2 1.1

194 5.1

204.9 5.7

214.1 4.4

219 2.3

227.3 3.8

238.5 4.9

249.8 4.8

261.1 4.5

271.1 3.9

279.6 3.1

138.1 3.6

143.3 3.7

146.8 2.5

149.5 1.8

152.8 2.2

155.9 2

158.5 1.6

160.9 1.5

163.3 1.5

165 1

242.3 4.6

246.9 1.9

252.3 2.2

258.4 2.4

263 1.8

266.1 1.2

269.3 1.2

271.4 0.8

272.9 0.6

274.6 0.6

37.7 3.6

38.4 1.9

38.7 0.8

39.2 1.3

40 2

40.8 2.1

41.6 1.9

42.3 1.7

43 1.6

43.6 1.5

12.5 1.6

12.5 0

12.5 -0.3

12.4 -0.6

12.4 -0.2

13.3 8

12.7 -4.9

12.8 0.7

12.9 0.8

13 0.7

106.4 1.1

107.7 1.2

109.9 2

112.4 2.2

114.6 2

116.9 1.9

119.1 1.9

121.5 2

123.8 1.9

125.9 1.7

2394.1 2.5

2450.2 2.3

2505 2.2

2559.7 2.2

2613.6 2.1

2666.7 2

2719.9 2

2773.8 2

2828.5 2

2884 2

1241.9 3.6

1275.6 2.7

1304.5 2.3

1331.8 2.1

1354.4 1.7

1374.6 1.5

1395 1.5

1414.8 1.4

1436.1 1.5

1457.9 1.5

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.2

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

17116 10809 6307

19497 12871 6627

21297 14934 6363

22376 15682 6694

23258 16047 7211

24183 16478 7705

24519 16556 7963

24910 16843 8067

25198 17057 8141

25502 17401 8101

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

99


O rlando – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

164.3 5.2 94.8 69.5

173.6 5.7 99.5 74.1

183.2 5.6 104.6 78.6

193.1 5.4 110.1 83

203.4 5.3 115.9 87.6

214 5.2 121.8 92.2

225.3 5.3 128.2 97.1

237.5 5.4 134.9 102.6

250.1 5.3 141.8 108.3

263 5.1 148.5 114.4

124 3.3

128 3.2

132.5 3.5

137 3.4

141.5 3.3

146.1 3.2

150.8 3.3

155.9 3.3

161 3.3

166 3.1

55.9 42.2

59.2 43.6

61.4 44.4

63.6 45.1

65.8 45.8

68.1 46.5

70.5 47.2

73.1 48

75.8 48.8

78.4 49.5

66.9 3.6

69.4 3.7

72 3.7

74.6 3.6

77.2 3.5

79.9 3.5

82.6 3.4

85.2 3.2

88 3.3

90.9 3.3

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1411.4 1.5

1428.1 1.2

1449.5 1.5

1472.4 1.6

1497.2 1.7

1520.9 1.6

1548.5 1.8

1579.6 2

1607 1.7

1630.3 1.4

39.9 -0.6

39.7 -0.5

39.5 -0.4

39.4 -0.3

39.3 -0.2

39.3 0

39.4 0.1

39.3 -0.1

39.3 0

39.4 0.1

1371.5 1.5

1388.4 1.2

1410 1.6

1433 1.6

1457.9 1.7

1481.5 1.6

1509.2 1.9

1540.3 2.1

1567.7 1.8

1590.9 1.5

99.3 2.5

102.9 3.6

105.3 2.4

107.4 2

109.4 1.9

112.2 2.5

115.7 3.2

118.7 2.6

121.3 2.2

123.3 1.6

247.2 0.8

248.9 0.7

250.7 0.7

252.8 0.8

254.9 0.8

256.4 0.6

258.7 0.9

261.2 1

263.6 0.9

265.5 0.7

55 151.4 40.9

55.4 152.6 40.9

55.8 153.8 41.2

55.9 155.5 41.5

56 157 41.8

56 158.5 41.9

56.3 160.4 42.1

56.5 162.5 42.2

56.6 164.7 42.3

56.7 166.7 42.2

30.3 1.4

30.9 1.8

31.6 2.4

32.4 2.4

33.1 2.4

33.8 2

34.5 2.2

35.3 2.3

36.2 2.4

37.2 2.6

77.9 0.9

78.9 1.3

79.9 1.2

80.9 1.3

82 1.4

83.1 1.3

84.4 1.5

85.6 1.4

86.7 1.4

87.8 1.2

288.2 3.1

295.2 2.4

304.7 3.2

314 3.1

325.1 3.5

334.8 3

347.1 3.7

361.7 4.2

373.7 3.3

383.4 2.6

166.9 1.2

168.3 0.8

170.6 1.3

173.2 1.6

176.1 1.6

178.7 1.5

181.8 1.7

185.3 1.9

188.4 1.7

191.2 1.5

276.3 0.6

277.2 0.3

279.4 0.8

282.5 1.1

285.8 1.2

288.6 1

292.2 1.3

296.2 1.4

300 1.3

303.3 1.1

44.4 1.7

44.8 1

45.3 1.2

45.9 1.3

46.6 1.4

47.1 1.2

47.6 1

48.1 1.1

48.7 1.2

49.3 1.2

13.1 0.9

13.4 2

13.5 1.2

13.7 1.2

13.8 1.1

14.9 7.7

14.3 -4

14.5 1.2

14.6 1.1

14.8 1.1

127.9 1.6

127.9 0

129 0.8

130 0.8

131 0.8

131.9 0.7

132.8 0.6

133.6 0.6

134.4 0.6

135.2 0.6

2940.2 1.9

2933.7 -0.2

2985.4 1.8

3037.5 1.7

3089.8 1.7

3142.2 1.7

3194.9 1.7

3247.8 1.7

3301.1 1.6

3354.7 1.6

1478.9 1.4

1474.2 -0.3

1492.7 1.3

1515.4 1.5

1540.4 1.7

1565.4 1.6

1590.7 1.6

1616.1 1.6

1642.4 1.6

1669.3 1.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

100

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

25490 17328 8162

26144 17142 9002

26896 16829 10066

26784 16112 10672

27077 16098 10979

27768 16432 11336

27848 16422 11426

27293 15719 11575

27338 15725 11613

27532 15908 11624

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


O rlando – K issimmee

Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

276.3 5.1 155.5 120.8

290.4 5.1 163 127.4

304.6 4.9 170.5 134.1

319.8 5 178.4 141.4

335.9 5 186.8 149.1

352.8 5 195.6 157.2

371.3 5.2 205.6 165.6

390.7 5.2 216.3 174.4

411.3 5.3 227.8 183.5

433.2 5.3 240 193.1

171.1 3

176.2 3

181.3 2.8

186.6 2.9

192 2.9

197.8 3

204 3.2

210.4 3.1

217.1 3.2

224 3.2

81.1 50.2

83.9 50.9

86.6 51.5

89.5 52.2

92.6 52.9

95.8 53.7

99.3 54.6

102.9 55.4

106.7 56.3

110.7 57.2

93.9 3.3

97 3.3

100.1 3.2

103.3 3.3

106.7 3.2

110.2 3.3

114 3.5

118 3.5

122.2 3.5

126.6 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1653.1 1.4

1677 1.4

1699.8 1.4

1722.8 1.4

1746.9 1.4

1771.8 1.4

1799.8 1.6

1829 1.6

1860.4 1.7

1893.1 1.8

39.4 0.1

39.4 0

39.3 -0.1

39.3 -0.1

39.2 -0.1

39.1 -0.3

39 -0.2

38.9 -0.3

38.8 -0.2

38.8 -0.2

1613.7 1.4

1637.7 1.5

1660.5 1.4

1683.5 1.4

1707.6 1.4

1732.7 1.5

1760.8 1.6

1790.1 1.7

1821.6 1.8

1854.3 1.8

125.5 1.8

128 2

130.6 2

133.4 2.2

136.5 2.3

139 1.8

142.2 2.3

145.6 2.4

149.2 2.4

153 2.6

267.2 0.7

269.1 0.7

270.6 0.6

272.3 0.6

273.9 0.6

275.4 0.6

277.1 0.6

278.7 0.6

280.2 0.5

281.9 0.6

56.6 168.8 41.9

56.5 171 41.6

56.3 173.1 41.2

56.2 175.2 40.9

56.1 177.2 40.5

56.2 179 40.2

56.5 180.9 39.8

57 182.2 39.5

57.6 183.5 39.1

58.3 184.9 38.7

38.2 2.7

39.2 2.6

40.1 2.4

41.1 2.4

42 2.3

42.8 2

44 2.6

45.2 2.8

46.3 2.4

47.3 2.3

88.7 1.1

89.6 1

90.5 1

91.5 1.1

92.3 0.9

93.2 1

94.2 1.1

95.2 1

96 0.9

96.8 0.8

393 2.5

403.1 2.6

413 2.4

422 2.2

432.1 2.4

443.4 2.6

457.6 3.2

473 3.4

490.7 3.7

509.2 3.8

193.7 1.3

196.4 1.4

199 1.3

201.9 1.5

204.7 1.4

207.9 1.6

211.2 1.6

214.3 1.5

217.2 1.3

219.9 1.2

306.7 1.1

310 1.1

313.1 1

316.5 1.1

319.8 1

322.5 0.9

325.4 0.9

327.8 0.7

330.3 0.7

332.7 0.7

49.8 1

50.3 1

50.7 0.8

51.1 0.8

51.6 0.9

51.9 0.7

52.3 0.7

52.6 0.6

52.9 0.6

53.2 0.6

15 1.2

15.1 1.2

15.3 1.1

15.5 1

15.6 0.9

16.4 5.4

15.9 -3.4

16.1 1.3

16.2 0.6

16.4 1.2

136 0.6

136.8 0.6

137.6 0.6

138.4 0.6

139.1 0.6

139.9 0.6

140.8 0.6

141.6 0.6

142.7 0.8

143.8 0.8

3408.5 1.6

3462.7 1.6

3517.3 1.6

3572.3 1.6

3627.8 1.6

3683.4 1.5

3739.3 1.5

3795 1.5

3854.4 1.6

3914.1 1.5

1697 1.7

1724.5 1.6

1751.5 1.6

1778.5 1.5

1805.8 1.5

1831.9 1.4

1857.8 1.4

1883.5 1.4

1910.4 1.4

1937.3 1.4

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

27815 16207 11607

27764 16196 11568

27627 16189 11438

27696 16213 11483

27610 16056 11554

27844 16160 11684

28098 16372 11726

28209 16372 11836

28577 16634 11942

28948 16984 11964

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

101


Palm Bay – M elbourne – Titusville

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.5 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $39,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.6 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $52,900. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 19,519.78 million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.3 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 8.0 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 5.6 percent, followed by the Education and Health services sector at 2.2 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -1.3 percent annually.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 255,296 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.7% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 14,478 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Brevard County School Board – 9,520 • Health First, Inc. – 7,800

• Harris Corporation – 5,890

• Brevard County Government – 2,380 • Department of Defense – 2,170 • NASA – 2,067

• Eastern Florida State College – 1,590 • Rockwell Collins Inc. – 1,410

• Florida Institute Of Technology – 1,280

• Northrop Grumman Corporation – 1,345 • Brevard County Sheriff Office – 1,175 • Parrish Medical Center – 1,075

• Wuesthoff Medical Center – 1,055

Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011

102

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES ‘Project Eagle’ in Titusville OK’d for $2.5M incentive

• An unidentified company, dubbed “Project Eagle,” will be moving to Titusville after the approval of the $2.5 million incentive package by the Brevard County Commission.

• With the move and subsequent opening of their manufacturing facility, the company plans to hire 150 employees with average salaries of $48,000. • The funding for the incentives is from the North Brevard Economic Development Zone, which uses property tax income to spur economic development.

Source: Florida Today, April 28, 2015


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itusville

Port Canaveral reviewing 3 port-to-rail business plans

• Decision makers at Port Canaveral are considering plans to link the port to existing railways, which would dramatically increase its cargo potential. • The different options for the expansion include building a rail line over the Banana River and through a wildlife refuge, building rail beside the 528, or using rail from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. • This expansion could be very beneficial to Port Canaveral, as it has the potential to grow the cargo industry in the area and add jobs.

Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 1, 2015

Brevard tourism chief expects big gains in next four years

• Eric Garvey, Space Coast Office of Tourism Executive Director, says he expects the Brevard tourism industry to grow, leading to a potential 50 percent increase in hotel room tax revenue.

• Lockheed expects to spend $52 million on construction and $28 million on machinery and equipment for the facility that they want to open in 2017.

Source: Florida Today, May 20, 2015

Brevard’s jobless rate falls, home prices increase

• According to the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Brevard County unemployment fell to 5.7 percent in April, representing a 1 percent improvement from the same month a year ago. • Brevard County also gained 5,400 jobs throughout the past year, while the work force shrank 1.2 percent over the year.

• According to the FloridaRealtors, single-family home sales grew 16 percent in April from the same month last year, and the median sales price increased over $22,000 from the same period.

Source: Florida Today, May 22, 2015

• The Brevard tourism industry brings in an estimated $2.86 billion annually and supports 20,900 jobs.

• Visit Florida statistics for state visitors in the first quarter showed growth of 6.2 percent over the same period a year prior, representing 28.4 million visitors.

Source: Florida Today, May 16, 2015

Lockheed considers 300-employee expansion in Titusville

• Looking to expand their facilities, Lockheed Martin is considering Brevard County as a potential location. The company is seeking the approval of certain incentives from the county including tax breaks and a $1.735 million grant. • The expansion would include adding up to 300 high-wage jobs.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

103


Palm Bay – M elbourne – Titusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

45000.0

2.5

(Millions 2000 $)

40000.0 35000.0

8.0%

30000.0 25000.0

6.0%

20000.0

4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate

Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands)

280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 180.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Palm Bay Payroll Employment 104

2

Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product

10.0%

300.0

1.5

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

15000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Palm Bay Real Personal Income

(percent change year ago) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itusville

Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

23.2 4.4 10.1 13.1

23.4 4.2 10.2 13.2

23.6 4.5 10.4 13.3

23.9 4.7 10.5 13.4

24.2 4.6 10.7 13.5

24.5 4.7 10.9 13.7

24.9 5.2 11 13.8

25.3 5.8 11.2 14.1

25.7 6.1 11.4 14.3

26.1 6.3 11.5 14.5

26.4 6.3 11.7 14.7

26.8 6.1 11.8 15

27.2 5.9 12 15.2

27.6 6 12.2 15.5

28 6.1 12.3 15.7

28.4 6 12.5 15.9

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

21.4 4.1

21.5 4.2

21.7 4.5

21.8 4.3

22.1 3.3

22.2 3.2

22.4 3.4

22.7 3.7

23 4.1

23.2 4.3

23.4 4.3

23.6 4.1

23.8 3.8

24.1 3.9

24.3 4

24.5 3.9

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

41.3 38

41.6 38.3

41.9 38.4

42.2 38.6

42.6 38.8

43.1 39

43.5 39.2

44.1 39.5

44.7 40

45.2 40.2

45.7 40.4

46.2 40.7

46.8 41

47.3 41.2

47.9 41.5

48.3 41.7

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.3 1.5

49.7 2.3

50.1 3.1

50.6 3.3

51 3.6

51.5 3.6

52 3.7

52.5 3.9

53 3.9

53.5 3.9

54 3.9

54.6 3.9

55.2 4

55.7 4.1

56.3 4.2

56.9 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

201.3 2.9

202.9 3

204.3 3.3

205.6 3.5

206.8 2.7

208 2.5

209.3 2.5

210.5 2.4

211.6 2.3

212.6 2.2

213.6 2

214.3 1.8

214.8 1.5

215.6 1.4

216.3 1.3

216.8 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

20.2 1.9

20.4 1.5

20.6 2.4

20.8 3.5

20.9 3.3

21.1 3.4

21.3 3.6

21.4 3.3

21.6 3.2

21.6 2.7

21.7 1.8

21.7 1.1

21.7 0.5

21.7 0.4

21.7 0.2

21.7 0.2

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

181 3

182.5 3.2

183.8 3.4

184.8 3.5

185.9 2.7

186.9 2.4

188 2.3

189.1 2.3

190 2.2

191 2.2

191.9 2.1

192.7 1.9

193.1 1.7

193.9 1.5

194.6 1.4

195.1 1.3

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

10.2 8

10.3 6.7

10.5 7

10.7 7.1

11 7.3

11.2 8.6

11.5 9.4

11.8 10.2

12.1 10.3

12.3 10.1

12.6 9.3

12.8 8.2

13 7.4

13.2 6.8

13.4 6.2

13.5 5.2

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

35.6 0.7

36 1

36.2 1.7

36.3 3.8

36.3 1.8

36.3 1

36.3 0.2

36.3 0

36.3 0.1

36.4 0.3

36.5 0.6

36.6 0.8

36.6 0.8

36.6 0.5

36.6 0.2

36.6 0

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5.5 26.7 3.5

5.6 26.9 3.5

5.6 27.1 3.5

5.7 27.1 3.6

5.7 27 3.6

5.7 26.9 3.6

5.8 26.9 3.6

5.8 26.8 3.7

5.9 26.7 3.7

5.9 26.7 3.7

6 26.7 3.8

6 26.7 3.8

6.1 26.6 3.8

6.1 26.6 3.8

6.1 26.5 3.9

6.1 26.4 3.9

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

1.8 1.9

1.8 -1.3

1.8 -3.9

1.9 -1.1

1.8 1.4

1.8 0.5

1.8 0.3

1.9 -0.2

1.9 2.5

1.9 3.2

1.9 2.6

1.9 2.4

1.9 0.6

1.9 -0.2

1.9 0.2

1.9 0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.5 3.7

7.5 4.7

7.6 2.7

7.6 2.7

7.6 2

7.6 1.1

7.6 0.4

7.6 0

7.6 -0.3

7.6 -0.5

7.6 -0.7

7.6 -0.8

7.5 -0.9

7.5 -0.8

7.5 -0.8

7.5 -0.8

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

30.4 6

30.9 6.7

31.3 7.6

32 8.4

32.6 7.4

33.2 7.5

33.7 7.8

34.3 7.1

34.8 6.6

35.1 5.8

35.4 4.9

35.6 3.9

35.8 2.8

35.9 2.3

36.1 2.1

36.3 1.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

34.1 4

34.3 3.9

34.5 3.8

34.6 3.2

34.7 2

35.1 2.1

35.3 2.2

35.4 2.5

35.5 2.2

35.6 1.7

35.8 1.4

35.9 1.3

36 1.3

36.1 1.4

36.3 1.5

36.5 1.6

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

25 5.9

25.1 5.7

25.2 4

25.2 1.7

25.3 1

25.2 0.3

25.2 0

25.2 -0.1

25.3 -0.1

25.3 0.4

25.4 0.9

25.6 1.4

25.6 1.3

25.7 1.3

25.7 1.2

25.8 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

8.2 2.9

8.3 3.1

8.3 3.9

8.3 1.9

8.3 1.5

8.4 1.1

8.4 0.8

8.4 0.6

8.4 0.3

8.4 0

8.4 -0.1

8.4 -0.1

8.4 0

8.4 0.2

8.4 0.5

8.4 0.6

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 0

6.1 0.4

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -1.4

6 -2

6 -1.9

6 -1.9

6 -1.7

5.9 -1.5

5.9 -1.5

5.9 -1.6

5.9 -1.7

5.8 -1.8

5.8 -1.7

5.8 -1.6

22 -2.8

22.1 -2.6

22.1 -0.8

22.1 -0.5

22.1 0.2

22.1 0

22.1 0.2

22.2 0.4

22.3 0.7

22.3 1

22.4 1.3

22.5 1.5

22.6 1.5

22.7 1.6

22.8 1.7

22.9 1.7

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

561.4 1.1

563 1.1

564.7 1.1

566.4 1.2

568 1.2

569.7 1.2

571.3 1.2

572.9 1.2

574.7 1.2

576.5 1.2

578.3 1.2

580.2 1.3

582.1 1.3

583.9 1.3

585.9 1.3

587.9 1.3

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

259.6 -0.4

260.8 0.2

262.4 1.1

263.7 1.6

265 2.1

266.2 2.1

267.6 2

268.9 2

270.1 1.9

271.4 1.9

272.8 2

274.1 1.9

275.3 1.9

276.5 1.9

277.9 1.8

279.1 1.8

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6.3

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.6

1683 1622 61

1869 1745 124

2321 2090 232

2699 2346 353

3071 2596 475

3465 2809 656

3898 3074 823

4333 3338 995

4542 3461 1081

4607 3517 1090

4657 3553 1104

4689 3575 1114

4760 3651 1109

4819 3718 1101

4869 3726 1143

4878 3710 1167

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

105


Palm Bay – M elbourne – Titusville

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

20.3 4.2 9.5 10.8

20.6 1.6 9.5 11.2

20 -2.8 9.2 10.9

20.4 1.6 9.3 11.1

21.4 5 9.3 12

21.5 0.4 9.3 12.1

21.7 1.2 9.4 12.3

22.5 3.7 9.7 12.8

20.9 1.7

20.6 -1.4

20.1 -2.8

20 -0.1

20.5 2.5

20.2 -1.4

20.2 0

20.7 2.4

37.6 38.7

38.1 38

37 37

37.4 36.8

39.2 37.7

39.1 36.9

39.3 36.6

40.4 37.1

43.7 2.2

45.1 3.1

46 2.1

46.9 1.9

47.4 1

47.4 0.1

47.9 0.9

48.7 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

213.5 -1.2

207 -3

196.4 -5.1

194.6 -1

194.2 -0.2

194.1 -0.1

193.5 -0.4

197.3 2

24.1 -1.9

23.7 -1.6

21.8 -8

20.5 -6

20.8 1.1

20.9 0.8

20.1 -3.8

20 -0.5

189.4 -1.1

183.3 -3.2

174.6 -4.8

174 -0.3

173.5 -0.3

173.2 -0.1

173.3 0.1

177.2 2.3

15.4 -15

13 -15.4

9.9 -23.8

8.7 -12.5

8.1 -5.8

8.4 3.1

9.1 8.8

9.8 6.7

37.2 -1.4

35.7 -3.8

33.3 -6.8

33 -0.9

34.4 4.1

34.9 1.7

35 0.1

35.4 1.3

5.6 28 3.6

5.5 26.8 3.4

5.2 24.9 3.2

5 24.6 3.3

5.2 25.1 4.1

5.2 25.5 4.2

5.5 25.6 3.9

5.5 26.4 3.4

2.5 -3

2.5 2.7

2.6 4.6

2.4 -8.9

2.2 -9.4

2 -8.8

1.7 -14.3

1.9 9.3

8.6 0.3

8.3 -3.4

7.9 -4.8

7.6 -3.6

7.5 -1.4

7.6 1.4

7.5 -2.2

7.3 -2.1

36.8 -1.2

34.5 -6.3

32.3 -6.4

32.4 0.2

31.3 -3.3

29 -7.4

28.3 -2.4

29 2.6

29.3 4

30.6 4.7

31.2 1.9

32.3 3.5

32.7 1.4

32.8 0.1

32.8 0.1

33.2 1

23.1 1.4

22.2 -4.1

21.3 -4

21.2 -0.5

21.5 1.7

22.7 5.4

23 1.1

24.1 5.1

7.5 -1.9

7.4 -2.2

6.9 -6.2

7.1 2.7

7.3 2.7

7.4 1

7.5 1.6

8 7.5

6.2 0.5

6.2 0

6.3 1.3

6.7 7.3

6.4 -5.3

6.2 -2.1

6.2 -0.7

6.1 -1.2

22.8 1

22.8 0

22.8 -0.1

22.6 -0.9

22 -2.8

22.2 0.8

22.3 0.7

22.4 0.6

539.9 0.8

542.2 0.4

542.5 0.1

544.1 0.3

545 0.2

548.2 0.6

552.2 0.7

557.6 1

263.4 1.6

265.2 0.7

263.4 -0.7

265.7 0.9

265.9 0.1

263.5 -0.9

259.5 -1.5

260 0.2

4.4

6.7

10.4

11.3

10.9

9.4

8.3

6.9

2865 2225 640

1676 1290 386

976 870 107

1083 995 87

976 847 130

1120 1116 4

1352 1337 16

1326 1284 41

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

106

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itusville

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

23.5 4.5 10.3 13.2

24.7 5.1 10.9 13.8

26.3 6.2 11.6 14.6

27.8 6 12.2 15.6

29.5 5.9 12.9 16.6

31.2 5.8 13.7 17.5

32.8 5.2 14.4 18.4

34.5 5.1 15.2 19.3

36.3 5.2 16 20.3

38.1 5.1 16.8 21.3

21.6 4.3

22.3 3.4

23.3 4.2

24.2 3.9

25.1 3.9

26.2 4.2

27.1 3.4

27.9 3.1

28.8 3.2

29.7 3.1

41.7 38.3

43.3 39.2

45.5 40.3

47.6 41.3

49.7 42.4

51.9 43.5

53.8 44.4

55.7 45.1

57.8 45.9

59.9 46.7

49.9 2.6

51.8 3.7

53.8 3.9

56 4.1

58.4 4.3

60.9 4.2

63.5 4.2

66.1 4.1

68.8 4.2

71.7 4.2

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

203.5 3.2

208.7 2.5

213 2.1

215.9 1.3

218.4 1.2

221.7 1.5

224.6 1.3

227.5 1.3

230.1 1.1

232.2 0.9

20.5 2.3

21.2 3.4

21.6 2.2

21.7 0.3

21.7 0

21.6 -0.4

21.5 -0.5

21.5 0

21.5 0

21.5 -0.2

183 3.3

187.5 2.4

191.4 2.1

194.2 1.5

196.7 1.3

200.1 1.7

203.1 1.5

206 1.5

208.6 1.2

210.7 1

10.5 7.2

11.4 8.9

12.5 9.5

13.3 6.4

13.7 3.5

14.1 2.9

14.5 2.6

14.8 1.9

15 1.8

15.3 1.5

36 1.8

36.3 0.7

36.5 0.4

36.6 0.4

36.6 0

36.8 0.5

37.1 0.8

37.3 0.7

37.5 0.4

37.5 0.2

5.6 26.9 3.5

5.8 26.9 3.6

5.9 26.7 3.8

6.1 26.5 3.9

6.2 26.3 3.9

6.4 26.3 3.9

6.5 26.4 4

6.6 26.6 4

6.7 26.7 4.1

6.8 26.6 4.1

1.8 -1.1

1.8 0.5

1.9 2.7

1.9 0.2

1.9 0.7

2 2.1

2 2.5

2.1 2.6

2.1 2.2

2.1 2

7.6 3.4

7.6 0.9

7.6 -0.6

7.5 -0.8

7.5 0.1

7.6 0.8

7.7 1.1

7.8 1.4

7.9 1.2

8 1.2

31.1 7.2

33.5 7.5

35.2 5.3

36 2.3

36.9 2.4

38.2 3.5

39.5 3.5

40.8 3.2

41.8 2.7

42.7 2.1

34.4 3.7

35.1 2.2

35.7 1.6

36.2 1.4

36.8 1.7

37.5 1.8

38.1 1.5

38.6 1.4

39.1 1.3

39.5 1

25.2 4.3

25.2 0.3

25.4 0.7

25.7 1.2

25.9 0.7

26 0.4

26.1 0.5

26.2 0.1

26.1 -0.2

26.1 -0.1

8.3 3

8.4 1

8.4 0

8.4 0.3

8.4 0.6

8.5 0.6

8.5 0.5

8.6 0.4

8.6 0.5

8.7 0.7

6.1 0

6 -1.8

5.9 -1.6

5.8 -1.7

5.8 -1.1

6 4.9

5.8 -3.6

5.8 -0.1

5.8 0

5.8 0

22.1 -1.7

22.1 0.2

22.4 1.1

22.7 1.6

23.1 1.7

23.4 1.4

23.8 1.5

24.2 1.7

24.6 1.7

25 1.4

563.9 1.1

570.5 1.2

577.4 1.2

585 1.3

593.1 1.4

601.6 1.4

610.3 1.4

619 1.4

627.9 1.4

636.7 1.4

261.6 0.6

266.9 2

272.1 1.9

277.2 1.9

281.7 1.6

285.9 1.5

290 1.4

294.3 1.5

298.5 1.4

301.6 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

6

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.4

2143 1950 193

3692 2954 737

4624 3526 1097

4831 3701 1130

4973 3794 1179

5120 3897 1223

5160 3908 1253

5222 3965 1257

5265 3997 1268

5331 4068 1263

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

107


Palm Bay – M elbourne – Titusville

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

40.1 5.1 17.7 22.4

42.6 6.3 18.7 23.9

44.9 5.4 19.7 25.3

47.3 5.2 20.7 26.6

49.7 5.1 21.7 28

52.3 5.1 22.8 29.4

55 5.2 24 31

58 5.4 25.3 32.7

61.1 5.3 26.6 34.5

64.2 5.1 27.9 36.3

30.7 3.3

31.6 2.9

32.6 3.3

33.7 3.1

34.7 3.1

35.8 3.1

36.9 3.1

38.1 3.3

39.3 3.2

40.5 3

62.1 47.6

65.3 48.4

67.9 49.3

70.5 50.2

73.1 51.1

75.9 51.9

78.7 52.8

81.9 53.8

85.1 54.8

88.3 55.8

74.7 4.2

78 4.4

81.3 4.2

84.7 4.1

88.1 4.1

91.6 4

95.3 4

99.1 3.9

102.9 3.8

106.8 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

234.6 1.1

236.9 1

238.9 0.9

241.2 1

243.8 1.1

246.6 1.1

249.5 1.2

253 1.4

256 1.2

258.3 0.9

21.4 -0.3

21.3 -0.6

21.1 -0.7

21 -0.6

20.9 -0.4

20.9 -0.1

20.9 0

20.8 -0.2

20.8 -0.1

20.8 0

213.3 1.2

215.6 1.1

217.8 1

220.2 1.1

222.9 1.2

225.7 1.2

228.6 1.3

232.2 1.6

235.1 1.3

237.5 1

15.5 1.6

15.8 2.2

16.1 1.3

16.2 1

16.4 1.1

16.7 1.8

17.1 2.6

17.5 2.1

17.8 1.7

18 1

37.8 0.6

38 0.5

38.1 0.3

38.3 0.5

38.5 0.5

38.6 0.3

38.8 0.6

39.1 0.7

39.3 0.6

39.5 0.5

6.8 26.8 4.1

6.9 26.9 4.2

7 26.9 4.2

7 27.1 4.2

7 27.2 4.2

7 27.3 4.2

7.1 27.5 4.3

7.1 27.7 4.3

7.2 27.9 4.3

7.2 28.1 4.3

2.2 1.1

2.2 1.4

2.2 1.8

2.3 1.8

2.3 1.7

2.3 1.3

2.4 1.6

2.4 1.8

2.5 1.9

2.5 2.2

8 1

8.2 1.6

8.3 1

8.3 1.1

8.4 1.2

8.5 1.2

8.7 1.4

8.8 1.3

8.9 1.3

9 1.1

43.9 2.6

45.1 2.8

46.1 2.3

47.1 2.1

48.3 2.6

49.3 2.1

50.7 2.8

52.4 3.4

53.7 2.4

54.7 1.8

39.9 1.1

40.2 0.8

40.7 1.1

41.3 1.4

41.9 1.5

42.4 1.3

43.1 1.6

43.8 1.7

44.5 1.5

45 1.1

26.1 0

26.1 -0.1

26.1 0

26.2 0.4

26.3 0.4

26.3 0.2

26.5 0.5

26.6 0.6

26.8 0.5

26.9 0.4

8.8 1.2

8.9 0.8

8.9 0.5

9 0.5

9 0.6

9 0.4

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.3

9.1 0.5

9.2 0.5

5.8 0.3

5.9 0.8

5.9 0.4

5.9 0.3

5.9 0.2

6.3 6.7

6 -4.9

6 0.3

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.2

25.3 1.3

25.3 0.2

25.5 0.7

25.7 0.7

25.9 0.8

26.1 0.6

26.2 0.6

26.4 0.6

26.5 0.5

26.7 0.6

645.4 1.4

653 1.2

661.8 1.4

670.8 1.4

679.8 1.3

688.9 1.3

698.7 1.4

708.2 1.4

717.6 1.3

726.7 1.3

303.7 0.7

303.3 -0.1

304.9 0.5

307.5 0.8

310.6 1

313.6 1

316.6 1

319.6 0.9

322.6 1

325.7 1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

108

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5290 4023 1266

5342 3964 1378

5401 3881 1521

5307 3702 1605

5335 3686 1649

5452 3751 1702

5449 3735 1713

5293 3558 1735

5286 3543 1743

5313 3569 1743

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


P alm B ay – M elbourne – T itusville

Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

67.4 5 29.2 38.3

70.8 5 30.5 40.2

74.2 4.8 31.9 42.2

77.9 5 33.4 44.4

81.7 5 35 46.8

85.8 5 36.6 49.2

90.1 5 38.4 51.7

94.5 5 40.2 54.3

99.3 5 42.2 57

104.3 5.1 44.4 59.9

41.7 2.9

42.9 2.9

44.1 2.7

45.3 2.8

46.6 2.8

47.9 2.8

49.2 2.9

50.6 2.8

52.1 2.9

53.6 2.9

91.6 56.7

95.1 57.6

98.5 58.5

102.2 59.5

106.1 60.5

110.2 61.5

114.5 62.6

118.9 63.7

123.6 64.9

128.7 66.2

110.8 3.8

115 3.8

119.3 3.7

123.8 3.8

128.5 3.8

133.3 3.7

138.2 3.7

143.3 3.7

148.7 3.8

154.4 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

260.6 0.9

263 0.9

265.2 0.8

267.4 0.8

269.7 0.9

272.4 1

275.1 1

278.1 1.1

281.5 1.2

285.2 1.3

20.8 0

20.8 -0.1

20.8 -0.2

20.8 -0.1

20.7 -0.1

20.7 -0.3

20.6 -0.2

20.6 -0.4

20.5 -0.2

20.5 -0.2

239.8 1

242.2 1

244.4 0.9

246.7 0.9

249 0.9

251.7 1.1

254.4 1.1

257.5 1.2

261 1.3

264.7 1.4

18.2 1.1

18.4 1.4

18.7 1.3

19 1.5

19.2 1.5

19.5 1.1

19.8 1.6

20.1 1.7

20.4 1.5

20.7 1.6

39.7 0.5

40 0.6

40.1 0.4

40.3 0.5

40.5 0.4

40.6 0.3

40.8 0.4

40.9 0.4

41.1 0.5

41.4 0.6

7.2 28.3 4.2

7.2 28.6 4.2

7.2 28.8 4.2

7.2 29 4.1

7.2 29.2 4.1

7.2 29.4 4.1

7.2 29.5 4

7.3 29.6 4

7.4 29.8 4

7.5 29.9 3.9

2.6 2.3

2.6 2.2

2.7 2

2.7 1.9

2.8 1.9

2.8 1.6

2.9 2.3

3 2.5

3 2.2

3.1 2.1

9.1 1

9.2 1

9.3 1

9.4 1

9.4 0.9

9.5 0.9

9.6 1

9.7 0.9

9.8 0.8

9.9 0.7

55.6 1.7

56.6 1.8

57.5 1.6

58.3 1.4

59.2 1.6

60.4 1.9

61.9 2.6

63.6 2.7

65.6 3.1

67.7 3.3

45.5 1.1

46 1.1

46.5 1.1

47 1.2

47.6 1.3

48.2 1.3

48.9 1.3

49.5 1.3

50.2 1.3

50.8 1.3

27 0.5

27.1 0.4

27.2 0.3

27.3 0.4

27.4 0.4

27.4 0.2

27.5 0.2

27.5 0.1

27.6 0.1

27.6 0.2

9.2 0.3

9.2 0.3

9.3 0.1

9.3 0.1

9.3 0.2

9.3 0

9.3 0

9.3 -0.1

9.3 -0.2

9.2 -0.2

6.1 0.3

6.1 0.3

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.1

6.1 0

6.4 4.5

6.1 -4.2

6.2 0.4

6.1 -0.3

6.2 0.3

26.8 0.5

27 0.6

27.1 0.5

27.3 0.5

27.4 0.5

27.5 0.5

27.7 0.5

27.8 0.4

28 0.7

28.2 0.7

735.6 1.2

744.4 1.2

753.1 1.2

761.6 1.1

770 1.1

778.4 1.1

786.6 1.1

795.1 1.1

802.8 1

810.6 1

328.9 1

331.9 0.9

334.8 0.9

337.6 0.8

340.5 0.8

343.1 0.8

345.6 0.7

347.9 0.7

350.2 0.7

352.5 0.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5359 3621 1738

5336 3602 1733

5292 3576 1716

5282 3557 1725

5236 3498 1738

5248 3492 1756

5269 3508 1761

5253 3478 1775

5288 3501 1787

5330 3544 1786

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

109


P ensacola – F erry Pass – B rent

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.5 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $37,800. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.1 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $45,800. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.9 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15,045.68 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, and the unemployment rate will average 4.9 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 7.0 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.5 percent. The Federal Government sector, Information sector, and Other Services sector are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -2.2, -0.3, and -0.1 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • A civilian labor force of 212,073 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 5.0% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 10,579 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• Local Government – 13,857

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• State Government – 5,253

Silver Airways launches new service at Pensacola International Airport

• Federal Government – 7,162 • Sacred Heart Health System – 5,000 • Baptist Health Care – 3,163 • Lakeview – 2,000

• Ascend Performance Materials – 1,400 • Gulf Power Company – 1,365

• West Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,300 • University of West Florida – 1,231

• Navy Federal Credit Union – 1,200

Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA

• Silver Airways now offers both a nonstop flight from Jacksonville to Pensacola, as well as a connecting flight through Fort Lauderdale through the Pensacola International Airport.

• In response, Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward stated, “Pensacola is excited to grow our relationship with Silver Airways and to serve more destinations than any other airport in the region.” • In addition to this service, Silver Airways customers can also fly non-stop to 12 other international hubs, have the handiness of seamless booking, ticketing and baggage handling.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 9, 2015 110

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Pensacola job growth best in years

• Pensacola had a private sector job growth rate of 4.5% within March 2014 to March 2015, steadily reaching the Florida rates.

• Typically, 1,500 to 1,600 jobs are added a year in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. The greatest growing sector in the Pensacola area is leisure and hospitality, with business and professional services also largely impacting the private sector job growth.

• Through the Navy Federal expansion, there will be an estimated 500 jobs added annually, while an expansion in employees at the Airbus facility in Alabama is expected to create about 2,000 jobs for Northwest Florida.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 16, 2015

UWF awards grant to help FWB manufacturer expand

• A $210,000 grant has been given to SunCoast Converters Inc., a local automotive parts and service shop, in order to relocate from a 17,000-square-foot facility in Fort Walton Beach to a 68,000-square-foot facility in Fort Walton Beach Commerce and Technology Park. The University of West Florida Office of Economic Development and Engagement provided the grant.

• The grant was part of the Industry Recruitment, Retention, and Expansion Grant Program that was put in place in order to assist counties affected the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in Florida in the success of their local businesses. The program, having just ended, began in 2011 as part of Florida’s Oil Spill Recovery Act. • With this grant, SunCoast will be expanding its product offerings while also keeping 28 jobs in place in addition to adding 6 news jobs with an expected annual salary of $49,617.

Retail strategy eyed for Santa Rosa

• A new retail strategy may be put in place for future economic development for the area of Santa Rosa, especially the ever growing U.S. 98 and U.S. 90 corridors and surrounding areas, which has grown tremendously in population.

• Within the strategy plan is a concept that is new to the Santa Rosa area: making statistical data such as demographics, disposable income, and traffic counts available for retailers who may possibly open in the area. • Though the plan must first be revised and approved by the county commission in addition to being put on bid for an outside contractor, District 1 Commissioner Jayer Williamson hopes the plan could be implemented within the current year.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 31, 2015

SpringHill Suites coming to Navarre Beach

• After Hurricane Ivan destroyed the only hotel on Navarre Beach 10 years ago—the Holiday Inn—Santa Rosa County will finally be replacing it with the Marriot SpringHill Suites. • The hotel will cost $30 million and will include 161 rooms, indoor and outdoor pools, a lazy river, and meeting rooms. Originally the meeting rooms were allocated 2,000 square feet of space in the initial plans; however, the space made available increased to 3,300 square feet in order to accommodate more business and wedding opportunities. • Construction should begin on June 15th and will take about 15 months to complete after groundbreaking, according to the project manager for Holi Corp, Casey Bobe. The hotel will bring an additional 75 jobs to the area.

Source: Pensacola News Journal, June 2, 2015

Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 20, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

111


P ensacola – F erry Pass – B rent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate

0.6

190.0

1

1.2

1.4

Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product

(Millions 2000 $) 26000.0 24000.0 22000.0 20000.0 18000.0 16000.0 14000.0 12000.0 10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Pensacola Real Personal Income

Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands)

0.8

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

180.0

4.0%

170.0

2.0%

160.0

0.0%

150.0

-2.0%

140.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Pensacola Payroll Employment

-4.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income

112

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

18.9 4 7.8 11.1

19.1 3.5 7.9 11.2

19.3 3.5 8 11.2

19.4 3.5 8.1 11.3

19.6 3.6 8.2 11.4

19.8 3.7 8.3 11.5

20 4.1 8.4 11.6

20.3 4.6 8.5 11.8

20.6 5 8.6 12

20.9 5.2 8.7 12.2

21.1 5.3 8.8 12.3

21.4 5.1 8.9 12.5

21.6 5 9 12.7

21.9 5.1 9.1 12.9

22.2 5.1 9.2 13

22.4 5 9.2 13.2

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

17.5 3.7

17.6 3.5

17.6 3.5

17.7 3.1

17.9 2.4

18 2.2

18.1 2.4

18.2 2.6

18.4 2.9

18.5 3.2

18.7 3.3

18.8 3.2

18.9 2.9

19.1 3

19.2 3

19.3 3

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

39.7 36.6

40 36.7

40.2 36.8

40.4 36.9

40.8 37.1

41.1 37.2

41.5 37.4

41.9 37.6

42.5 37.9

42.9 38.1

43.3 38.3

43.7 38.5

44.2 38.7

44.7 39

45.2 39.2

45.6 39.3

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

43 0.9

43.3 1.6

43.6 2.4

44 2.8

44.4 3.3

44.8 3.4

45.1 3.4

45.5 3.5

45.9 3.5

46.3 3.5

46.7 3.5

47.1 3.5

47.6 3.6

48 3.7

48.5 3.8

48.9 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

166.9 3.1

167.8 2.5

168.6 2.4

169.1 1.9

169.6 1.6

170.1 1.4

170.7 1.3

171.2 1.2

171.7 1.2

172.2 1.2

172.7 1.1

173 1.1

173.1 0.8

173.4 0.7

173.6 0.6

173.7 0.4

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

6.1 3

6.1 2.5

6.1 1.2

6.1 0.9

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.1

6.1 0

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.5

6.1 -0.5

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

160.8 3.1

161.7 2.5

162.4 2.5

162.9 2

163.5 1.7

164 1.4

164.6 1.3

165.1 1.3

165.6 1.3

166.1 1.3

166.5 1.2

166.9 1.1

167 0.9

167.3 0.7

167.6 0.6

167.7 0.5

9.8 5

9.8 3.7

10 3.9

10.1 6.6

10.3 5.8

10.6 7.6

10.8 8.8

11.1 9.9

11.4 10.2

11.6 10

11.8 9.1

12 7.8

12.2 6.8

12.3 6.1

12.5 5.4

12.5 4.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

31.8 3.4

32.1 3

32.3 3.6

32.3 2.8

32.2 1.2

32.2 0.4

32.2 -0.3

32.1 -0.6

32.1 -0.5

32.1 -0.3

32.2 0

32.2 0.2

32.1 0.2

32.1 -0.1

32 -0.5

32 -0.7

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

5 22.7 4.1

5.1 22.9 4.1

5.1 23 4.2

5.1 22.9 4.2

5.2 22.8 4.2

5.2 22.8 4.2

5.2 22.7 4.3

5.2 22.6 4.3

5.2 22.5 4.3

5.3 22.5 4.3

5.3 22.5 4.4

5.3 22.4 4.4

5.3 22.3 4.4

5.4 22.2 4.4

5.4 22.1 4.4

5.4 22 4.4

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

2.2 -6

2.2 -3.5

2.2 -1.7

2.2 1.5

2.2 0.8

2.2 -0.1

2.2 -0.3

2.2 -0.8

2.3 1.8

2.3 2.5

2.3 2

2.3 1.8

2.3 0

2.3 -0.8

2.2 -0.5

2.2 -0.6

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

11 5.3

11.1 4.9

11.2 3

11.2 2.1

11.2 1.3

11.1 0.4

11.1 -0.4

11.1 -0.7

11 -1.1

11 -1.2

11 -1.4

10.9 -1.5

10.9 -1.6

10.8 -1.6

10.8 -1.6

10.7 -1.6

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

22 3.3

22.3 2.7

22.5 3.7

22.9 4

23.3 5.5

23.6 5.6

23.9 6

24.1 5.4

24.4 4.8

24.5 4.1

24.6 3.2

24.7 2.3

24.8 1.5

24.8 1.2

24.9 1.1

24.9 0.8

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

27.4 3.5

27.5 3.2

27.6 2.3

27.6 1.1

27.7 1

27.8 1.1

28 1.2

28 1.6

28 1.2

28 0.7

28.1 0.4

28.1 0.4

28.1 0.4

28.2 0.4

28.2 0.5

28.3 0.5

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

22.8 6.5

22.9 4.2

23 4.7

23 3.2

23 1

23 0.3

23 0

23 -0.1

23 0

23.1 0.5

23.2 1

23.3 1.4

23.3 1.4

23.4 1.4

23.5 1.2

23.5 1

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

6 -0.5

6 -0.8

6.1 -0.8

6.1 -0.8

6.1 1.1

6.1 0.7

6.1 0.4

6.1 0.2

6.1 -0.1

6 -0.4

6 -0.5

6 -0.5

6 -0.3

6 -0.1

6 0.1

6.1 0.2

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

6.4 -1.4

6.4 -0.6

6.4 -1.5

6.3 -3.6

6.3 -2

6.3 -2.6

6.2 -2.5

6.2 -2.5

6.2 -2.3

6.1 -2.1

6.1 -2.2

6 -2.2

6 -2.4

6 -2.4

5.9 -2.3

5.9 -2.3

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

21.3 0.2

21.3 -0.2

21.3 -0.9

21.2 -1

21.2 -0.5

21.2 -0.7

21.2 -0.6

21.2 -0.3

21.2 0

21.2 0.3

21.3 0.6

21.3 0.8

21.4 0.8

21.4 0.8

21.5 0.9

21.5 0.9

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

477.3 1

478.4 0.9

479.4 0.9

480.4 0.9

481.5 0.9

482.5 0.8

483.5 0.9

484.4 0.8

485.4 0.8

486.3 0.8

487.3 0.8

488.2 0.8

489.2 0.8

490.1 0.8

491 0.8

491.9 0.8

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

214.9 0.3

217 0.9

218.9 1.7

220.5 1.9

222 3.3

223.4 2.9

224.9 2.7

226.2 2.6

227.4 2.4

228.6 2.3

229.9 2.2

230.9 2.1

231.8 2

232.8 1.8

233.7 1.7

234.5 1.5

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.5

5.3

5.2

5.2

5

4.9

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5

2926 2017 909

2659 1969 690

2748 2011 737

2692 1952 741

2584 1883 700

2368 1791 577

2176 1734 442

2149 1783 366

2113 1822 291

2139 1846 293

2156 1859 296

2165 1866 299

2191 1895 296

2221 1927 294

2231 1928 303

2225 1918 307

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

113


P ensacola – F erry Pass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

15.4 4.6 6.9 8.4

15.7 2 6.9 8.7

15.5 -1 6.8 8.7

16 3 6.9 9.1

16.9 5.4 7.1 9.8

17.5 3.7 7.3 10.2

17.8 1.9 7.4 10.5

18.5 3.9 7.7 10.9

15.8 2

15.7 -1.1

15.5 -0.9

15.7 1.3

16.2 2.9

16.5 1.8

16.6 0.7

17 2.5

34.7 35.7

35.2 35.2

34.7 34.7

35.4 34.8

36.9 35.5

37.7 35.6

38 35.4

39 35.9

37.9 2.5

39.2 3.6

40.3 2.8

40.3 0

41.3 2.4

42 1.8

41.9 -0.2

42.7 1.7

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

170.6 -0.1

163 -4.5

154.7 -5.1

156.7 1.3

158.4 1.1

158.6 0.1

160.5 1.2

164 2.2

7 -5.3

6.5 -7.9

5.4 -16.7

5.4 -0.6

5.5 2.6

5.6 1.2

5.9 5.6

6 2.3

163.6 0.2

156.5 -4.3

149.3 -4.6

151.3 1.4

152.9 1.1

153 0.1

154.6 1

158 2.2

14.8 -3.9

12.7 -14.1

10.6 -16.2

10.5 -0.6

9.8 -6.7

9.4 -4

9.2 -2.5

9.5 2.8

33.8 2.4

32.3 -4.5

30.1 -6.8

29.4 -2.4

29.8 1.3

30 0.9

30.4 1.2

31.1 2.4

6.7 22.2 4.9

6.1 21.3 4.9

5.4 20.1 4.6

5.1 20.2 4.1

4.9 20.8 4.1

4.9 21.1 4

4.9 21.5 4.1

5 22 4.2

3.4 -6.1

3.3 -2.7

3 -7.2

3.1 1.7

2.7 -12.5

2.4 -12.3

2.3 -1

2.3 -2.9

9.4 3

9 -3.6

8.8 -2.8

8.7 -1.2

8.7 0

9 3.5

9.9 10

10.7 8.1

20.6 -4.6

19.1 -7

18.4 -3.6

19.7 6.7

21.1 7.1

21.3 1.3

21.5 1

21.7 0.7

26.5 4.6

26 -1.6

25.7 -1.1

26.7 3.8

27.4 2.4

27 -1.4

26.6 -1.4

26.9 0.9

18 -0.1

17.9 -0.4

17.6 -1.8

18.1 2.8

19.2 6.4

19.7 2.6

20.8 5.6

21.9 5

8 -2.2

7.3 -7.7

6.6 -10.2

6.1 -6.8

5.8 -5.4

5.7 -1.5

5.7 -0.5

6.1 6.8

6.6 -2.5

6.5 -0.8

6.5 0.3

7.2 10.2

6.9 -4.7

6.8 -0.8

6.6 -2.4

6.5 -2

22.7 1

22.3 -1.8

21.9 -2.1

21.8 -0.3

21.6 -0.8

21.6 -0.2

21.4 -0.8

21.4 0

443.9 0.2

445.5 0.4

447.1 0.4

451.4 1

456.4 1.1

463.3 1.5

469.3 1.3

474.5 1.1

209.2 2.7

206.4 -1.3

205.3 -0.5

211.3 2.9

213.7 1.2

213.1 -0.3

213.1 0

215.2 1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

114

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.5

5.6

9.2

9.8

9.4

8.2

7

6

2430 1793 638

1332 1132 201

1036 955 81

1820 1373 448

1201 1200 1

1479 1463 16

1986 1867 119

2013 1727 286


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

19.2 3.6 8 11.2

20 4 8.4 11.6

21 5.2 8.7 12.3

22 5 9.1 12.9

23.1 5 9.5 13.6

24.3 4.9 10 14.3

25.3 4.3 10.4 14.9

26.4 4.2 10.8 15.5

27.5 4.3 11.3 16.2

28.6 4.2 11.8 16.9

17.6 3.4

18 2.4

18.6 3.2

19.2 3

19.7 3

20.4 3.3

20.9 2.5

21.4 2.2

21.8 2.2

22.3 2.2

40.1 36.8

41.3 37.3

43.1 38.2

44.9 39

46.8 39.9

48.7 40.9

50.5 41.7

52.3 42.3

54.2 43

56.1 43.7

43.5 1.9

44.9 3.4

46.5 3.5

48.3 3.7

50.2 4

52.1 3.9

54.1 3.8

56.1 3.8

58.2 3.8

60.5 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

168.1 2.5

170.4 1.4

172.4 1.2

173.5 0.6

174.3 0.5

175.8 0.9

177 0.6

178 0.6

178.8 0.4

179 0.1

6.1 1.9

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.1

6.1 -0.4

6 -0.7

6 -0.9

5.9 -1.2

5.9 -0.9

5.8 -0.9

5.8 -1.1

162 2.5

164.3 1.4

166.3 1.2

167.4 0.7

168.2 0.5

169.8 0.9

171 0.7

172.2 0.7

172.9 0.4

173.3 0.2

9.9 4.8

10.7 8

11.7 9.3

12.4 5.7

12.7 2.9

13 2.4

13.3 2.1

13.5 1.2

13.6 1

13.7 0.5

32.1 3.2

32.2 0.2

32.1 -0.1

32 -0.3

31.8 -0.7

31.7 -0.3

31.7 -0.1

31.6 -0.3

31.4 -0.5

31.2 -0.8

5.1 22.9 4.1

5.2 22.7 4.2

5.3 22.5 4.4

5.4 22.2 4.4

5.4 21.9 4.4

5.5 21.7 4.4

5.5 21.7 4.4

5.5 21.6 4.4

5.5 21.4 4.4

5.5 21.2 4.4

2.2 -2.5

2.2 -0.1

2.3 2

2.2 -0.5

2.2 -0.3

2.3 1.2

2.3 1.9

2.4 1.8

2.4 1.3

2.4 1.1

11.1 3.8

11.1 0.1

11 -1.3

10.8 -1.6

10.7 -0.7

10.7 0.1

10.8 0.4

10.8 0.7

10.9 0.4

10.9 0.4

22.4 3.4

23.7 5.6

24.6 3.6

24.9 1.2

25.2 1.6

25.9 2.7

26.7 2.9

27.4 2.7

28 2.1

28.4 1.6

27.5 2.5

27.9 1.2

28.1 0.7

28.2 0.4

28.3 0.5

28.5 0.7

28.6 0.4

28.7 0.3

28.8 0.3

28.8 0

22.9 4.7

23 0.3

23.1 0.7

23.4 1.2

23.6 0.7

23.7 0.4

23.8 0.4

23.8 0

23.7 -0.3

23.6 -0.4

6 -0.7

6.1 0.6

6 -0.4

6 0

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.1

6.1 0.1

6.1 0.2

6.1 0.3

6.4 -1.8

6.2 -2.4

6.1 -2.2

6 -2.3

5.9 -1.8

6 3.3

5.8 -3.6

5.8 -0.9

5.7 -0.8

5.7 -0.8

21.3 -0.5

21.2 -0.5

21.3 0.4

21.4 0.9

21.6 0.9

21.8 0.7

21.9 0.7

22.1 0.9

22.3 0.8

22.4 0.5

478.9 0.9

482.9 0.9

486.8 0.8

490.6 0.8

494.2 0.7

497.8 0.7

501.3 0.7

504.7 0.7

507.9 0.6

510.9 0.6

217.8 1.2

224.1 2.9

229.2 2.3

233.2 1.7

235.7 1.1

237.4 0.7

238.9 0.6

240.4 0.6

241.6 0.5

242 0.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.3

4.8

4.7

4.9

5

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

2756 1987 769

2319 1798 521

2143 1848 295

2217 1917 300

2273 1957 316

2329 2001 328

2310 1986 324

2322 2004 318

2313 2004 309

2332 2031 301

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

115


P ensacola – F erry Pass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

29.8 4.1 12.2 17.6

31.4 5.2 12.7 18.6

32.7 4.4 13.2 19.5

34.1 4.2 13.8 20.4

35.5 4.1 14.3 21.2

37 4.1 14.9 22.1

38.5 4.2 15.5 23.1

40.2 4.3 16.1 24.1

41.9 4.2 16.7 25.2

43.6 4.1 17.3 26.4

22.8 2.3

23.2 1.8

23.8 2.3

24.3 2.2

24.8 2.1

25.3 2.1

25.8 2.1

26.4 2.3

27 2.2

27.5 2.1

58.1 44.4

61.4 45.5

63.9 46.4

66.4 47.3

68.9 48.1

71.5 49

74.3 49.9

77.3 50.8

80.4 51.8

83.5 52.7

62.8 3.8

65.4 4.1

67.9 3.9

70.5 3.8

73.2 3.7

75.8 3.7

78.6 3.7

81.5 3.6

84.3 3.5

87.3 3.5

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

179.5 0.2

179.7 0.1

179.8 0.1

180.2 0.2

180.7 0.3

181.3 0.4

181.9 0.3

183 0.6

183.6 0.3

183.7 0.1

5.7 -1.3

5.6 -1.4

5.5 -1.5

5.4 -1.4

5.4 -1.2

5.3 -1

5.3 -0.9

5.2 -1.1

5.2 -0.9

5.1 -0.8

173.8 0.3

174.1 0.2

174.3 0.1

174.7 0.2

175.3 0.3

176 0.4

176.6 0.4

177.8 0.6

178.4 0.4

178.6 0.1

13.7 0.5

13.8 0.9

13.9 0.2

13.9 0

13.9 0.1

14 0.9

14.2 1.6

14.4 0.9

14.4 0.5

14.4 -0.1

31.1 -0.5

30.9 -0.6

30.6 -0.8

30.5 -0.6

30.3 -0.6

30 -0.8

29.9 -0.5

29.8 -0.4

29.6 -0.5

29.5 -0.6

5.5 21.1 4.4

5.5 21 4.4

5.5 20.8 4.4

5.4 20.7 4.4

5.4 20.6 4.3

5.3 20.4 4.3

5.3 20.4 4.3

5.2 20.3 4.2

5.2 20.3 4.2

5.1 20.2 4.1

2.4 0.2

2.4 0.6

2.4 0.9

2.5 0.8

2.5 0.8

2.5 0.4

2.5 0.7

2.5 0.8

2.6 1

2.6 1.2

11 0.2

11 0.8

11.1 0.1

11.1 0.3

11.1 0.4

11.2 0.3

11.2 0.5

11.3 0.4

11.3 0.4

11.3 0.3

29 2.1

29.7 2.2

30.2 1.7

30.7 1.6

31.3 2

31.7 1.5

32.4 2.2

33.4 2.8

34 1.8

34.4 1.3

28.8 0

28.7 -0.3

28.7 0

28.8 0.3

28.9 0.4

29 0.3

29.1 0.5

29.3 0.6

29.4 0.4

29.4 0

23.5 -0.4

23.4 -0.5

23.3 -0.3

23.3 0

23.3 0

23.3 -0.2

23.3 0.1

23.3 0.2

23.4 0.2

23.4 0

6.2 0.8

6.2 0.4

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.1

6.2 0.2

6.2 0

6.2 -0.1

6.2 -0.1

6.2 0.1

6.2 0

5.7 -0.7

5.6 -0.1

5.6 -0.5

5.6 -0.6

5.5 -0.6

5.9 5.8

5.5 -5.7

5.5 -0.6

5.5 -0.7

5.4 -0.7

22.5 0.4

22.4 -0.7

22.3 -0.1

22.3 -0.1

22.3 -0.1

22.2 -0.2

22.2 -0.2

22.1 -0.3

22.1 -0.3

22 -0.3

513.6 0.5

510.6 -0.6

512.3 0.3

513.9 0.3

515.4 0.3

517 0.3

518.3 0.3

519.8 0.3

521.2 0.3

522.6 0.3

241.5 -0.2

239 -1

238 -0.4

237.9 -0.1

238.1 0.1

238.3 0.1

238.4 0

238.4 0

238.5 0

238.6 0

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

116

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

2307 2012 296

2302 1983 320

2288 1937 351

2208 1842 366

2204 1831 373

2244 1864 380

2234 1856 378

2139 1763 377

2124 1753 371

2132 1767 365

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


P ensacola – F erry P ass – B rent

Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

45.4 4 17.9 27.5

47.2 4 18.5 28.7

49 3.8 19.1 29.9

51 4 19.8 31.1

53 4 20.5 32.5

55.1 4 21.2 33.9

57.3 4 22 35.3

59.6 4 22.8 36.9

62.1 4.1 23.6 38.4

64.7 4.2 24.6 40.1

28.1 2

28.6 1.9

29.1 1.7

29.7 1.8

30.2 1.8

30.8 1.9

31.3 1.9

31.9 1.9

32.6 2

33.3 2.1

86.6 53.6

89.8 54.5

93 55.2

96.4 56.1

100 57

103.7 57.9

107.5 58.8

111.6 59.8

116.1 60.9

121 62.2

90.3 3.5

93.4 3.4

96.6 3.4

99.9 3.4

103.3 3.4

106.8 3.4

110.4 3.4

114 3.3

117.8 3.3

121.7 3.4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

183.9 0.1

184.1 0.1

184.2 0

184.3 0.1

184.4 0.1

184.7 0.2

185.1 0.2

185.8 0.4

186.9 0.6

188.2 0.7

5.1 -0.8

5 -0.9

5 -1

4.9 -0.9

4.9 -1

4.8 -1.1

4.8 -1.1

4.7 -1.2

4.7 -1.1

4.6 -1.1

178.8 0.1

179.1 0.1

179.2 0.1

179.3 0.1

179.5 0.1

179.9 0.2

180.3 0.2

181.1 0.4

182.2 0.7

183.6 0.7

14.4 0

14.4 0.3

14.5 0.2

14.5 0.4

14.6 0.5

14.6 0.3

14.8 0.8

14.9 1

15 0.7

15.1 0.8

29.3 -0.6

29.1 -0.5

28.9 -0.7

28.8 -0.6

28.5 -0.7

28.3 -0.8

28.1 -0.7

28 -0.6

27.8 -0.4

27.8 -0.3

5 20.2 4.1

5 20.1 4

4.9 20.1 3.9

4.8 20.1 3.8

4.8 20 3.8

4.7 19.9 3.7

4.7 19.8 3.6

4.7 19.7 3.6

4.7 19.6 3.5

4.7 19.6 3.4

2.6 1.4

2.7 1.3

2.7 1.1

2.7 1

2.7 1

2.8 0.7

2.8 1.4

2.8 1.7

2.9 1.5

2.9 1.4

11.4 0.2

11.4 0.1

11.4 0.1

11.4 0.2

11.4 0.1

11.4 0.1

11.5 0.2

11.5 0.1

11.5 0.2

11.5 0.1

34.8 1.2

35.2 1.2

35.6 1.1

35.9 0.8

36.2 1

36.7 1.4

37.5 2

38.3 2.2

39.4 2.8

40.5 2.9

29.4 0

29.4 0

29.4 0

29.4 0.1

29.5 0.2

29.5 0.2

29.6 0.2

29.7 0.3

29.8 0.4

29.9 0.4

23.4 0.1

23.4 0.1

23.4 0

23.4 0.1

23.5 0.1

23.4 -0.1

23.4 -0.1

23.4 -0.1

23.4 0.1

23.4 0.1

6.2 -0.1

6.2 -0.1

6.2 -0.3

6.1 -0.3

6.1 -0.2

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.4

6.1 -0.4

6 -0.4

6 -0.4

5.4 -0.6

5.4 -0.6

5.3 -0.7

5.3 -0.7

5.2 -0.9

5.4 3.6

5.1 -5.1

5.1 -0.4

5.1 -0.9

5.1 -0.3

21.9 -0.3

21.9 -0.3

21.8 -0.3

21.7 -0.3

21.6 -0.5

21.5 -0.6

21.4 -0.5

21.3 -0.5

21.3 -0.1

21.2 0

524 0.3

525.5 0.3

527 0.3

528.6 0.3

530.1 0.3

531.7 0.3

533.1 0.3

534.4 0.2

534.7 0

534.7 0

238.8 0.1

238.9 0

238.8 0

238.7 -0.1

238.6 0

238.3 -0.1

237.9 -0.2

237.3 -0.2

236.8 -0.2

236.2 -0.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5

5

2151 1793 358

2136 1785 350

2113 1774 340

2100 1765 335

2067 1737 331

2062 1735 328

2066 1744 322

2048 1730 318

2056 1742 314

2072 1764 308

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

117


Tallahassee

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $36,400. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.4 percent. The average annual wage level will be $45,100. Population growth will average 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14,151.43 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.5 percent each year, the third lowest of the studied areas. However, the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.1 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average growth rate of 3.8 percent. The Federal Government sector and Financial Services sector are expected to decline by -0.5 and -0.2 percent, respectively.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau).

• Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 187,532 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database).

• An unemployment rate of 4.9 % as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 9,105 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: • State of Florida – 24,599 • Florida State University – 6,119 • Leon County Schools – 4,550 • Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. – 3,190 • City of Tallahassee – 2,736 • Publix Supermarket – 2,102 • Florida A&M University – 1,923 • Leon County – 1,919 • Walmart Stores Inc. – 1,300 • Tallahassee Community College – 1,144

Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012

118

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Chicken Salad Chick expands to Parkway

• The Gulf Wind Shopping Center will be the new location for Tallahassee’s second Chicken Salad Chick restaurant. This location is just one mile from the state capital, so it hopes to attract state workers. This new downtown location will be a perfect stop for Tallahassee officials and locals. • Since 2014 when the first restaurant opened, Tallahassee citizens have been asking when another chain would open. “That day has arrived,” said Bob Gosselin, a local franchise owner.

• The fast-casual restaurant is adding some new summer items, along with job opportunities for community members.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 28, 2015


T allahassee

Tallahassee poised for new outlet mall

• The city’s northwest area might be the location for the proposed outlets, Park Place Outlet Mall. The prime location will draw in interstate travelers along with community members nearby. The closest outlets to Tallahassee are averaging 200 miles away, with Destin nearest at 153 miles away. • Blueprints, state, and local permits have been approved, so construction should begin in late 2016. The commercial development is about 75 acres and will include designer stores, houses, a hotel, and restaurants.

• Meyer Development LLC is in charge of the project. They have constructed hotels, restaurants, and student housing around the country, so they are more than qualified for this hefty task. The project value is still unknown, but the mall will become a large source of revenue for the area.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 8, 2015

Tallahassee Airport poised for major face-lift

• Tallahassee’s terminal needs a little renovation since it was first built in 1989. The growing airport needs a few modern touches to give travelers a brighter, newer feeling. Last year alone the airport transported more than 7 million travelers.

• The renovations are looking to cost about $10 to $12 million, according to Aviation Director, Chris Curry. The cost will be covered mostly by the Transportation Security Administration, with the rest by state funding and passenger fees.

• Some of the new improvements include slick wood floors, high top tables and bar stools, and new baggage conveyors, not to mention many more. The improvements will aid in making the transition to becoming an international airport, which was approved in January. The nicer and more comfortable the airport feels, the

more time and money people will spend inside, creating more revenue, which can eventually lead to cheaper fares.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 18, 2015

Budgets, tax cuts discussed in special session

• A special session was held to work on the state budget for the next fiscal year. The same $80 billion budget from the last session was passed by the Senate. The House enacted its own $76.2 million plan, said House Speaker Steve Crisafulli.

• The Senate passed a plan to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, which will be looked over by the House. Crisafulli mentioned, “Regardless of Medicaid, the budget plan will include tax cuts.” He also stated there will be tax relief for Floridians because every dime that comes to Tallahassee doesn’t need to be spent. • Health care will continue to be fought over, as it is a prominent issue for Florida. This special session was held so that Congress can complete the budget. Senate President Andy Gardiner said the Senate is “committed to getting a responsible budget done.”

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 1, 2015 Fiore Communications expands

• The Tallahassee-based company, Fiore Communications, has opened a new office in Minnesota.

• The company had to hire a large amount of staff to keep up with its growth. • A new senior account manager, Robby Cunningham, is bringing 17 years of experience to the company. The CEO, Dave Fiore, is hoping this growth will help the company serve its clients better.

Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 29, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

119


Tallahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.5

Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product 30000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

25000.0

10.0% 8.0%

20000.0

6.0% 4.0%

15000.0

2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate

10000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Tallahassee Real Personal Income

Tallahassee Payroll Employment 220.0

(Thousands)

210.0

10.0%

(percent change year ago)

5.0%

200.0 190.0

0.0%

180.0 170.0

-5.0%

160.0 150.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Tallahassee Payroll Employment 120

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

-10.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


T allahassee

Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

14.4 4.2 7.4 7

14.5 3.6 7.5 7

14.6 3.5 7.6 7.1

14.7 3.3 7.7 7.1

14.9 3.6 7.7 7.2

15.1 3.7 7.8 7.2

15.3 4.3 7.9 7.3

15.5 4.9 8 7.5

15.7 5.5 8.1 7.6

16 5.8 8.2 7.7

16.2 6 8.3 7.8

16.4 5.9 8.5 7.9

16.6 5.7 8.6 8.1

16.9 5.8 8.7 8.2

17.1 5.8 8.8 8.3

17.3 5.8 8.9 8.4

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

13.3 3.9

13.4 3.6

13.4 3.5

13.5 2.9

13.6 2.3

13.7 2.2

13.7 2.5

13.9 2.9

14.1 3.5

14.2 3.8

14.3 4

14.4 3.9

14.6 3.6

14.7 3.7

14.8 3.8

15 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

38.2 35.2

38.5 35.4

38.7 35.5

38.9 35.6

39.3 35.8

39.6 35.9

39.9 36

40.3 36.2

40.9 36.5

41.3 36.7

41.7 36.9

42.1 37.1

42.6 37.3

43.1 37.5

43.5 37.7

43.9 37.9

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

42.1 1.2

42.5 1.6

42.9 2.6

43.3 3

43.6 3.5

44 3.6

44.4 3.5

44.8 3.7

45.2 3.7

45.7 3.7

46.1 3.8

46.5 3.8

47 3.9

47.5 3.9

47.9 4

48.4 4.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

174.7 3

175.5 2.6

175.9 2

176.2 1.2

176.6 1.1

177.1 0.9

177.6 1

178.2 1.2

179 1.4

179.7 1.5

180.4 1.5

180.9 1.5

181.4 1.3

182 1.3

182.5 1.2

182.9 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

2.9 -1.6

2.9 -0.5

2.9 -0.9

2.9 -1

2.9 0.7

2.9 0.5

2.9 0.7

2.9 0.5

2.9 0.7

2.9 0.9

3 0.7

3 0.7

3 0.7

3 0.6

3 0.4

3 0.4

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

171.8 3.1

172.6 2.7

173 2

173.3 1.2

173.7 1.1

174.1 0.9

174.7 1

175.3 1.2

176.1 1.4

176.8 1.5

177.4 1.6

178 1.5

178.4 1.3

179 1.3

179.5 1.2

180 1.1

6.2 0.1

6.2 -1

6.3 -0.1

6.4 0.9

6.6 6.4

6.7 7.8

6.9 9.1

7.1 10.2

7.3 10.6

7.4 10.5

7.6 9.6

7.7 8.3

7.8 7.2

7.9 6.5

8 5.9

8.1 5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

24.6 5.6

24.8 5

24.9 5.1

24.9 4.7

24.9 1.1

24.9 0.3

24.8 -0.3

24.8 -0.4

24.8 -0.2

24.9 0.1

25 0.5

25 0.7

25 0.7

25 0.4

25 0

24.9 -0.2

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

3.3 19.4 1.9

3.3 19.5 1.9

3.4 19.6 1.9

3.4 19.6 1.9

3.4 19.5 1.9

3.4 19.5 2

3.4 19.4 2

3.4 19.4 2

3.5 19.3 2

3.5 19.3 2

3.5 19.4 2

3.5 19.3 2.1

3.6 19.3 2.1

3.6 19.3 2.1

3.6 19.2 2.1

3.6 19.2 2.1

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

3.8 0.3

3.9 -2.1

3.9 -1.6

3.9 -1.1

3.9 0.9

3.9 0.2

3.9 0.1

3.9 -0.2

4 2.5

4 3.3

4 2.8

4 2.6

4 0.8

4 0

4 0.3

4 0.1

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

7.2 0

7.2 0.9

7.3 1.9

7.3 0.6

7.3 1.1

7.3 0.3

7.3 -0.3

7.2 -0.5

7.2 -0.7

7.2 -0.8

7.2 -1

7.2 -1.1

7.1 -1.2

7.1 -1.1

7.1 -1.1

7.1 -1.1

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

19.4 3.7

19.6 3.4

19.8 3.7

20.1 2.8

20.4 5.6

20.7 5.7

21 6.3

21.3 5.8

21.5 5.4

21.7 4.7

21.8 3.9

21.9 3

22 2.1

22.1 1.8

22.2 1.6

22.2 1.4

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

20.9 3.1

21 2.3

21.1 1.7

21 1.5

21.1 1.1

21.3 1.3

21.4 1.5

21.5 2.1

21.5 1.8

21.6 1.4

21.6 1.2

21.7 1.1

21.7 1.1

21.8 1.2

21.9 1.2

22 1.3

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

19.2 8

19.2 8.1

19.2 7.5

19.2 4

19.2 0.5

19.2 -0.2

19.2 -0.3

19.2 -0.2

19.2 -0.1

19.3 0.5

19.4 1.1

19.5 1.5

19.5 1.4

19.6 1.5

19.6 1.3

19.7 1.1

9.5 5.1

9.5 3.6

9.6 3.8

9.6 2.9

9.6 1.2

9.6 0.9

9.6 0.7

9.6 0.7

9.6 0.5

9.6 0.3

9.6 0.2

9.6 0.1

9.7 0.3

9.7 0.5

9.7 0.7

9.7 0.9

2 3

2 2.5

2 3.4

2 0.8

1.9 -1.5

1.9 -2.1

1.9 -1.9

1.9 -1.7

1.9 -1.4

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1.1

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -1.4

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -1.2

59.1 0.9

59.1 0.7

58.9 -1.1

58.8 -1.6

58.8 -0.6

58.7 -0.7

58.6 -0.5

58.7 -0.1

59 0.3

59.1 0.8

59.3 1.1

59.5 1.3

59.7 1.3

59.9 1.3

60.1 1.4

60.3 1.4

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

376.7 0.4

377.3 0.4

377.9 0.5

378.8 0.6

379.8 0.8

380.9 1

382.2 1.1

383.6 1.3

385 1.4

386.3 1.4

387.7 1.4

389.1 1.4

390.4 1.4

391.7 1.4

393 1.4

394.4 1.4

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

190.6 0.7

192.5 1.5

194.3 2.3

195.7 2.8

197.2 3.4

198.4 3.1

199.8 2.8

201 2.7

202.1 2.5

203.2 2.4

204.4 2.3

205.4 2.2

206.2 2

207.1 1.9

208 1.8

208.7 1.6

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5.1

4.9

4.8

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.4

1328 703 624

1290 740 550

1546 862 685

1752 946 806

1928 1029 899

1977 1099 878

1999 1189 809

2111 1303 808

2167 1354 813

2188 1366 822

2203 1370 833

2210 1368 842

2230 1386 844

2237 1402 836

2251 1395 856

2245 1380 865

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

121


Tallahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

12.4 5.1 6.9 5.5

12.6 1.7 6.9 5.7

12.3 -2.3 6.8 5.5

13 5.5 6.8 6.2

13.8 6.5 6.8 7

13.3 -3.4 6.8 6.5

13.5 1.2 6.9 6.6

14.1 4.1 7.2 6.9

12.7 2.6

12.6 -1.3

12.3 -2.3

12.8 3.8

13.3 4

12.6 -5.2

12.6 0

12.9 2.8

34.6 35.6

34.8 34.8

33.7 33.7

35.1 34.5

37.1 35.7

35.6 33.6

36.1 33.6

37.4 34.4

38.5 3.4

39.2 1.8

39.3 0.2

39.8 1.3

40.1 0.9

40.9 1.9

41.1 0.4

41.8 1.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

177.5 1.2

176 -0.9

171.1 -2.8

169.2 -1.1

168 -0.7

166.2 -1

167.4 0.7

171.8 2.6

4.6 2.8

4.3 -7.1

3.8 -9.5

3.7 -4.1

3.3 -11.2

3.1 -3.9

3.1 -2.3

2.9 -4.5

172.9 1.1

171.7 -0.7

167.2 -2.6

165.5 -1.1

164.7 -0.5

163.1 -1

164.3 0.8

168.9 2.8

9.5 -3

8.6 -9.7

7 -18

6.4 -9.1

6.1 -4.5

5.9 -4

6.2 5.5

6.3 1.7

25.1 -1.2

24 -4.5

22.4 -6.7

22.2 -0.9

22.3 0.7

22.2 -0.7

22.8 2.6

23.6 3.8

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.6 18.5 1.9

3.4 17.4 1.6

3.3 17.3 1.6

3.3 17.5 1.6

3.2 17.4 1.6

3.2 17.8 1.7

3.3 18.6 1.8

3.6 2.8

3.6 0.5

3.4 -6

3.1 -9.1

3.2 3.6

3.3 3.6

3.4 3.8

3.9 14.7

8.2 -1.9

7.9 -2.9

7.5 -5.8

7.4 -1.1

7.5 0.9

7.2 -4.1

7.3 1.6

7.2 -1

18.9 -1.2

19.1 1.3

18.4 -3.6

18.1 -1.6

18.4 1.4

18.2 -1.1

18.5 1.7

19.1 3

18.5 3.8

19.2 4

19.5 1.4

19.6 0.4

19.9 1.4

19.7 -0.6

19.7 -0.3

20.5 4.4

16.9 3.6

16.7 -1.5

16.4 -1.7

16.2 -1.3

16.2 0

16.8 3.5

17.2 2.8

18 4.4

8.5 7.7

9.4 10.5

9.7 3.3

9.5 -2.2

8.9 -5.7

9.2 3.1

8.8 -3.8

9.2 3.8

1.9 0

2 3.9

2 1.2

2.1 5

1.9 -9.1

1.9 -0.5

2 3.6

1.9 -2.4

61.8 1.6

61.2 -1

60.9 -0.4

60.9 0

60.3 -1.1

58.7 -2.6

58.4 -0.5

59.1 1.2

357.7 1.8

361.6 1.1

365.2 1

369.4 1.1

371.9 0.7

374.9 0.8

374.1 -0.2

375.9 0.5

185.3 3.5

188.1 1.5

189 0.5

190.7 0.9

190 -0.4

188 -1.1

186.9 -0.6

189.8 1.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

122

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.3

4.9

7.4

8.4

8.3

7.4

6.4

5.8

2772 2190 583

1240 967 273

828 613 215

663 606 57

786 567 219

994 496 498

1188 612 576

1325 710 615


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

14.6 3.6 7.5 7

15.2 4.1 7.9 7.3

16.1 5.8 8.3 7.8

17 5.8 8.7 8.3

18 5.7 9.2 8.8

19 5.5 9.7 9.3

19.9 5 10.2 9.7

20.9 4.8 10.7 10.1

21.9 4.9 11.2 10.6

22.9 4.8 11.8 11.1

13.4 3.5

13.7 2.5

14.2 3.8

14.8 3.7

15.3 3.7

15.9 3.9

16.4 3.2

16.9 2.8

17.4 2.8

17.9 2.8

38.6 35.4

39.8 35.9

41.5 36.8

43.3 37.6

45.2 38.5

47.1 39.5

48.9 40.3

50.7 41

52.6 41.7

54.5 42.4

42.7 2.1

44.2 3.6

45.9 3.7

47.7 4

49.7 4.1

51.7 4.1

53.8 4.1

55.9 3.9

58.2 4

60.5 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

175.5 2.2

177.4 1

180 1.5

182.2 1.2

184.3 1.1

186.7 1.3

188.8 1.1

190.9 1.1

192.6 0.9

193.9 0.7

2.9 -1

2.9 0.6

2.9 0.7

3 0.5

3 0.1

3 -0.2

3 -0.3

2.9 -0.3

2.9 -0.4

2.9 -0.5

172.6 2.2

174.5 1.1

177.1 1.5

179.2 1.2

181.3 1.2

183.8 1.4

185.9 1.2

187.9 1.1

189.7 0.9

191 0.7

6.3 0

6.8 8.4

7.5 9.7

7.9 6.1

8.2 3.3

8.4 2.7

8.6 2.3

8.8 1.4

8.9 1.3

8.9 0.9

24.8 5.1

24.9 0.2

24.9 0.3

25 0.2

24.9 -0.2

25 0.3

25.1 0.5

25.2 0.2

25.2 0

25.1 -0.3

3.4 19.5 1.9

3.4 19.4 2

3.5 19.3 2

3.6 19.2 2.1

3.6 19.1 2.1

3.7 19.1 2.1

3.7 19.2 2.2

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.8 19.2 2.2

3.8 19.1 2.2

3.9 -1.1

3.9 0.2

4 2.8

4 0.3

4 0.3

4.1 1.8

4.2 2.6

4.3 2.3

4.4 1.8

4.5 1.6

7.3 0.9

7.3 0.2

7.2 -0.9

7.1 -1.1

7.1 -0.3

7.1 0.4

7.2 0.7

7.2 0.9

7.3 0.7

7.3 0.6

19.7 3.4

20.9 5.8

21.7 4.2

22.1 1.7

22.6 2.2

23.4 3.3

24.2 3.4

24.9 3

25.5 2.5

26 1.9

21 2.2

21.3 1.5

21.6 1.4

21.9 1.2

22.1 1.4

22.5 1.5

22.7 1.1

22.9 0.9

23.1 0.8

23.2 0.5

19.2 6.9

19.2 -0.1

19.3 0.8

19.6 1.3

19.8 0.8

19.8 0.4

19.9 0.4

19.9 -0.1

19.8 -0.4

19.7 -0.3

9.5 3.8

9.6 0.9

9.6 0.3

9.7 0.6

9.8 0.9

9.9 0.9

10 0.8

10 0.6

10.1 0.6

10.1 0.7

2 2.4

1.9 -1.8

1.9 -1.2

1.9 -1.3

1.9 -0.7

2 7.5

1.9 -5.5

1.9 0

1.9 0.1

1.9 0

59 -0.3

58.7 -0.5

59.2 0.9

60 1.4

60.9 1.4

61.5 1.1

62.1 0.9

62.8 1.2

63.6 1.2

64.2 0.9

377.7 0.5

381.6 1

387 1.4

392.4 1.4

397.5 1.3

402.4 1.2

407.1 1.2

411.7 1.1

416.3 1.1

420.8 1.1

193.3 1.8

199.1 3

203.8 2.4

207.5 1.8

210 1.2

211.9 0.9

214.2 1.1

216.6 1.1

218.7 1

220.1 0.6

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.1

4.3

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

1479 813 666

2004 1155 849

2192 1365 827

2241 1391 850

2268 1385 883

2295 1382 913

2279 1347 933

2270 1330 941

2257 1303 953

2243 1296 947

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

123


Tallahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

24 4.7 12.3 11.7

25.4 5.7 12.9 12.5

26.6 5 13.5 13.1

27.9 4.8 14.2 13.8

29.2 4.7 14.8 14.4

30.6 4.6 15.5 15.1

32 4.7 16.2 15.8

33.6 4.9 17 16.6

35.2 4.7 17.7 17.5

36.8 4.6 18.4 18.4

18.4 2.9

18.8 2.4

19.4 2.9

19.9 2.7

20.4 2.6

20.9 2.6

21.5 2.6

22.1 2.8

22.7 2.7

23.2 2.5

56.5 43.2

59.7 44.2

62.1 45.1

64.4 45.9

66.8 46.7

69.3 47.4

72 48.3

74.9 49.2

77.9 50.2

80.9 51.1

62.9 4

65.5 4.2

68.2 4.1

70.9 4

73.7 3.9

76.6 3.9

79.5 3.8

82.5 3.8

85.5 3.7

88.6 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

195.5 0.8

196.7 0.6

197.7 0.5

198.9 0.6

200.3 0.7

201.5 0.6

203 0.7

204.8 0.9

206.2 0.7

207.2 0.5

2.9 -0.4

2.9 -0.5

2.9 -0.7

2.9 -0.5

2.8 -0.3

2.8 -0.1

2.8 0

2.8 -0.2

2.8 -0.1

2.8 0

192.6 0.8

193.8 0.6

194.9 0.5

196.1 0.6

197.4 0.7

198.7 0.6

200.1 0.7

202 0.9

203.4 0.7

204.4 0.5

9 0.9

9.1 1.2

9.2 0.7

9.2 0.4

9.3 0.5

9.4 1.3

9.6 2

9.7 1.4

9.8 1

9.9 0.3

25.1 0.1

25.1 0

25.1 -0.2

25.1 0.1

25.1 0

25.1 -0.2

25.1 0.2

25.2 0.3

25.3 0.2

25.3 0.1

3.8 19.1 2.2

3.8 19.1 2.2

3.8 19 2.2

3.8 19.1 2.3

3.8 19.1 2.3

3.8 19.1 2.3

3.7 19.1 2.3

3.7 19.2 2.3

3.7 19.3 2.3

3.7 19.3 2.3

4.5 0.8

4.6 1.4

4.6 1.5

4.7 1.4

4.8 1.4

4.8 1

4.9 1.3

4.9 1.4

5 1.6

5.1 1.8

7.4 0.5

7.4 1

7.5 0.4

7.5 0.6

7.6 0.7

7.6 0.6

7.7 0.8

7.7 0.7

7.8 0.7

7.8 0.5

26.6 2.4

27.3 2.6

27.9 2.1

28.4 1.9

29.1 2.3

29.6 1.9

30.4 2.5

31.3 3.2

32 2.2

32.5 1.6

23.4 0.5

23.4 0.3

23.6 0.6

23.8 0.9

24 1

24.2 0.8

24.5 1

24.7 1.2

25 1

25.1 0.6

19.7 -0.3

19.6 -0.4

19.6 -0.2

19.6 0.1

19.6 0.1

19.6 -0.1

19.6 0.2

19.7 0.3

19.7 0.2

19.8 0.1

10.3 1.3

10.4 0.8

10.4 0.6

10.5 0.6

10.5 0.6

10.6 0.5

10.6 0.3

10.7 0.3

10.7 0.5

10.8 0.5

1.9 0.2

1.9 1.4

1.9 0.6

2 0.5

2 0.4

2.1 6.9

2 -4.7

2 0.5

2 0.4

2 0.4

64.7 0.8

64.9 0.3

65.1 0.3

65.3 0.3

65.5 0.3

65.7 0.2

65.8 0.2

65.9 0.2

66 0.1

66.1 0.2

425.3 1.1

425.4 0

429.4 0.9

433.3 0.9

437.2 0.9

441 0.9

444.6 0.8

448.1 0.8

451.5 0.8

454.8 0.7

220.7 0.3

220.1 -0.3

220.4 0.1

221.3 0.4

222.7 0.6

223.9 0.6

225.2 0.6

226.3 0.5

227.5 0.5

228.8 0.5

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

124

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

2205 1258 947

2248 1211 1037

2301 1150 1151

2275 1058 1217

2273 1020 1253

2305 1011 1293

2277 976 1301

2202 890 1312

2162 853 1309

2135 832 1303

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


T allahassee

Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

38.5 4.5 19.2 19.3

40.2 4.4 20 20.2

41.9 4.3 20.8 21.1

43.7 4.4 21.6 22.1

45.6 4.4 22.5 23.2

47.7 4.4 23.4 24.3

49.8 4.5 24.4 25.4

52 4.4 25.4 26.6

54.2 4.3 26.5 27.8

56.6 4.4 27.6 29

23.8 2.4

24.4 2.3

24.9 2.1

25.4 2.3

26 2.2

26.6 2.3

27.2 2.4

27.8 2.2

28.5 2.2

29.1 2.3

84 52

87.1 52.8

90.2 53.6

93.6 54.5

97.1 55.3

100.8 56.2

104.7 57.2

108.6 58.2

112.6 59.1

116.9 60.1

91.9 3.6

95.2 3.6

98.5 3.5

102.1 3.6

105.8 3.6

109.5 3.6

113.4 3.6

117.5 3.6

121.7 3.6

126.1 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

208.2 0.5

209.2 0.5

210.1 0.4

211 0.4

212 0.5

213 0.5

214.3 0.6

215.5 0.6

216.8 0.6

218.3 0.7

2.8 0

2.8 -0.1

2.8 -0.2

2.8 -0.1

2.8 -0.1

2.8 -0.3

2.8 -0.2

2.8 -0.4

2.8 -0.2

2.8 -0.2

205.4 0.5

206.4 0.5

207.3 0.4

208.2 0.4

209.1 0.5

210.2 0.5

211.5 0.6

212.7 0.6

214 0.6

215.5 0.7

9.9 0.4

10 0.7

10 0.6

10.1 0.8

10.2 0.9

10.3 0.6

10.4 1.2

10.5 1.1

10.6 0.7

10.7 0.8

25.3 0.1

25.4 0.2

25.4 0

25.4 0.1

25.4 0

25.4 -0.1

25.4 0

25.3 -0.2

25.3 -0.2

25.2 -0.1

3.7 19.4 2.3

3.6 19.5 2.2

3.6 19.5 2.2

3.6 19.6 2.2

3.5 19.7 2.2

3.5 19.7 2.2

3.5 19.7 2.1

3.5 19.7 2.1

3.5 19.7 2.1

3.5 19.6 2.1

5.2 1.9

5.3 1.9

5.4 1.7

5.5 1.6

5.6 1.5

5.6 1.3

5.7 1.9

5.9 2.1

6 1.7

6 1.6

7.9 0.5

7.9 0.4

7.9 0.4

8 0.5

8 0.3

8 0.3

8.1 0.4

8.1 0.2

8.1 0.1

8.1 0

33 1.5

33.5 1.5

34 1.4

34.4 1.1

34.8 1.3

35.4 1.7

36.2 2.3

37 2.4

38 2.7

39.1 2.8

25.3 0.5

25.4 0.5

25.5 0.5

25.7 0.7

25.9 0.7

26.1 0.7

26.3 0.8

26.4 0.6

26.6 0.6

26.7 0.5

19.8 0.2

19.8 0.2

19.8 0

19.9 0.1

19.9 0.1

19.9 -0.1

19.8 -0.1

19.8 -0.3

19.7 -0.3

19.7 -0.3

10.8 0.4

10.8 0.4

10.9 0.1

10.9 0.1

10.9 0.2

10.9 0

10.9 0

10.9 -0.1

10.8 -0.4

10.8 -0.4

2 0.5

2 0.5

2.1 0.4

2.1 0.3

2.1 0.2

2.2 4.7

2.1 -4.1

2.1 0.5

2.1 -0.3

2.1 0.3

66.2 0.1

66.3 0.1

66.3 0.1

66.4 0.1

66.5 0.1

66.6 0.2

66.7 0.2

66.7 0

66.9 0.2

67.1 0.3

458 0.7

461.1 0.7

464.2 0.7

467.2 0.6

470.1 0.6

473 0.6

475.7 0.6

478.7 0.6

481.5 0.6

484.3 0.6

230.1 0.6

231.2 0.5

232.3 0.5

233.3 0.4

234.2 0.4

235 0.3

235.7 0.3

236.3 0.2

236.9 0.2

237.4 0.2

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.5

2112 819 1293

2071 790 1280

2017 760 1258

1986 731 1254

1950 696 1253

1929 673 1257

1904 654 1250

1878 628 1250

1860 612 1248

1837 599 1238

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

125


Tampa – St. P etersburg – Clearwater

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.1 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $40,000. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3 percent. The average annual wage level will be $52,900. Population growth will average 1.6 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 124,055.50 million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average a moderate 5.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.7 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector and the Educational and Health Services sector with average annual growth rates of 3.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively. Growth in the Federal Government will decline at an average of -0.5 percent.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). • Civilian labor force of 1,424,999 in April 2015 (Florida Research and Economic Database). • Unemployment rate of 5.0% as of April 2015, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 71,304 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database).

TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• • • • • • • • • •

Hillsborough County School board – 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485 Pinellas County School District – 13,905 Hillsborough County Government – 9,328 Pasco County School District – 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065 University of South Florida – 8,353 Tampa International Airport – 8,060 Tampa General Hospital – 6,900 Publix Food Centers – 5,823

Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority

126

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Staples to lay off 47 employees at Tampa warehouse

• Staples, the office supply store, is closing a warehouse in Tampa that will result in 47 lost jobs. • Most of the lost positions will be in delivery services.

• The warehouse shutdown will begin in June and be completed in October of 2015.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 29, 2015

Tampa Bay second in Florida in home and condo sales • Tampa came in second in the state for the number of homes and condos sold in the first quarter of 2015, being surpassed only by Miami-Fort Lauderdale.


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C lear w ater

• Single-family homes sales increased 22.5 percent in Tampa from a year earlier, representing 9,866 sales closed.

• The median sales price also rose, with 7.6 percent growth to $156,000.

• The condo and townhome market also showed growth, with the number of sales increasing almost 18 percent from the first quarter of last year. Median condo/townhome prices rose 9 percent to $108,000.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 11, 2015

Tampa Bay will be part of Humana’s hiring spree

• The insurance company, Humana, announced goals to add 500 jobs per year throughout the country, and a large portion of those jobs could come from Tampa.

Hillsborough approves $1.4 billion in transportation improvement projects

• The Hillsborough Metropolitan Planning Organization board gave their approval for a 5-year highway and traffic improvement plan worth $1.4 billion.

• Enhancements will be made on roads, bridges, intersections, sidewalks, trails, etc.

• Forty percent of the funding will be allocated to ports, airport, and freight rail. Intersection and traffic light projects will comprise 19 percent of the budget.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 2, 2015

• Humana already employs over 4,000 people in Tampa, representing the second-largest congregation of Humana workers.

• They plan to hire veterans and military spouses, and have already hired 175 veterans and spouses in Tampa recently. The company expressed its appreciation for the Tampa area and stated that Tampa would be a focus when it came to the increased hiring.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 19, 2015

St. Petersburg makes TripAdvisor list of 30 rising vacation sites

• The tourism industry in St. Petersburg is growing, as shown by the recent feat of making it on the TripAdvisor list of the top 30 rising travel destinations in 2015. • According to TripAdvisor, bookings for St. Petersburg increased within the last year.

• Earlier this year, St. Pete Beach ranked 2nd and Clearwater Beach ranked 8th on TripAdvisor’s Top 25 U.S. Beaches Choice Awards.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 3, 2015

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

127


Tampa – St. P etersburg – Clearwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 0

0.2

0.4

Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate 12.0%

(percent)

0.6

1

1.2

1.4

Tampa Real Gross Metro Product 300000.0

(Millions 2000 $)

250000.0

10.0%

200000.0

8.0% 6.0%

150000.0

4.0%

100000.0

2.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate

50000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Gross Metro Product

Tampa Real Personal Income

Tampa Payroll Employment 1800.0

0.8

(Thousands)

8.0%

(percent change year ago)

6.0%

1600.0

4.0% 2.0%

1400.0

0.0% -2.0%

1200.0

-4.0%

1000.0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Tampa Payroll Employment 128

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

-6.0% 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 Real Personal Income


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C lear w ater

Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2015

2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income

123.7 4.1 61.3 62.4

124.9 3.7 62.1 62.8

126 3.6 63 63

127.1 3.6 63.8 63.2

128.8 4.1 64.7 64.1

130.4 4.4 65.6 64.8

132.1 4.8 66.5 65.5

134.1 5.5 67.5 66.6

136.4 5.9 68.5 67.9

138.3 6.1 69.4 68.9

140.2 6.2 70.3 69.9

142.1 6 71.3 70.9

144.3 5.8 72.2 72.1

146.3 5.8 73.1 73.3

148.3 5.8 74 74.3

150.2 5.7 74.9 75.3

Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago

114.1 3.8

114.8 3.7

115.5 3.6

116.1 3.2

117.3 2.9

118.1 2.9

119 3.1

120.2 3.5

121.8 3.8

122.9 4.1

124 4.2

125.1 4

126.3 3.7

127.5 3.7

128.6 3.7

129.6 3.7

Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$)

42 38.7

42.2 38.8

42.4 38.9

42.6 39

43 39.2

43.4 39.3

43.8 39.5

44.3 39.7

44.9 40.1

45.3 40.3

45.8 40.5

46.2 40.7

46.7 40.9

47.2 41.1

47.7 41.3

48.1 41.5

Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

49.6 1.2

50 1.8

50.4 2.6

50.8 2.9

51.2 3.2

51.6 3.3

52.1 3.3

52.5 3.4

53 3.5

53.5 3.6

54 3.7

54.5 3.7

55 3.7

55.5 3.8

56.1 3.9

56.6 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago

1223.2 2.5

1230.3 2.2

1237.2 1.8

1244 1.8

1250.9 2.3

1258.4 2.3

1265.4 2.3

1272.3 2.3

1279.2 2.3

1285.4 2.1

1291.2 2

1296.5 1.9

1300 1.6

1303.7 1.4

1307.5 1.3

1310.4 1.1

Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

61.2 0.3

61.3 0.4

61.3 -0.1

61.4 0

61.4 0.3

61.4 0.2

61.5 0.3

61.5 0.2

61.6 0.3

61.6 0.4

61.7 0.4

61.7 0.4

61.7 0.2

61.8 0.2

61.7 0.1

61.7 0

Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago

1162 2.7

1169 2.3

1175.9 2

1182.6 1.9

1189.5 2.4

1197 2.4

1203.9 2.4

1210.8 2.4

1217.6 2.4

1223.7 2.2

1229.5 2.1

1234.7 2

1238.2 1.7

1242 1.5

1245.8 1.3

1248.7 1.1

Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago

61.2 2.9

61.9 2.1

62.9 2.4

64 6.2

65.2 6.5

66.5 7.3

67.8 7.8

69.4 8.5

71 8.9

72.7 9.4

74.3 9.6

75.6 9

76.9 8.2

78 7.3

79.1 6.4

79.8 5.5

Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago

235.4 3.2

237.4 3

239.3 2.8

239.9 2.3

239.8 1.9

240.2 1.2

240.4 0.5

240.5 0.2

240.7 0.4

241.6 0.6

242.5 0.9

243.1 1.1

243.3 1.1

243.4 0.7

243.4 0.4

243.3 0.1

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util

50.6 155.6 29.2

50.9 156.8 29.6

51.4 157.9 29.9

51.7 157.8 30.2

51.9 157.4 30.4

52.1 157.2 30.6

52.3 157.1 30.8

52.5 156.7 31

52.7 156.3 31.3

53.1 156.5 31.6

53.5 156.8 31.8

53.9 156.7 32.1

54.1 156.4 32.3

54.3 156 32.4

54.5 155.7 32.5

54.7 155.2 32.6

Information Pct Chg Year Ago

25.5 -0.2

25.7 0.6

25.8 0.1

25.9 0.6

25.7 0.6

25.7 0

25.8 -0.1

25.8 -0.5

26.2 2.3

26.5 3.1

26.5 2.7

26.5 2.7

26.5 1.1

26.6 0.4

26.6 0.6

26.6 0.4

Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago

101.9 0.9

102.5 0.6

103.1 0

103.3 -0.2

103.7 1.8

103.8 1.3

103.9 0.7

104 0.6

104.2 0.5

104.2 0.4

104.2 0.3

104.3 0.3

104.3 0.2

104.2 0

104 -0.2

103.8 -0.4

Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago

202.2 0.9

203.1 0.6

204.3 0

208.1 1.7

212 4.9

215.9 6.3

219.5 7.4

223.1 7.2

226 6.6

227.5 5.4

228.5 4.1

229.6 2.9

230.5 2

231.2 1.6

232.1 1.6

232.7 1.3

Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago

193.6 3.8

195 3.9

196.4 3.6

196.6 2.8

197.9 2.2

200 2.6

201.2 2.4

202.2 2.8

202.6 2.4

203.3 1.7

204.1 1.4

204.8 1.3

204.9 1.2

205.8 1.2

206.5 1.2

207.2 1.2

Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago

143.6 5.8

144.5 4.5

145.1 3.8

145.8 2.5

146.1 1.8

146 1.1

146.3 0.8

146.6 0.6

147.1 0.7

147.8 1.2

148.8 1.7

149.8 2.2

150.2 2.1

150.7 2

151.3 1.7

151.9 1.4

Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago

44.6 2.4

44.8 2.7

44.9 2.1

45 0

45.1 1.2

45.2 0.9

45.2 0.7

45.2 0.4

45.2 0.2

45.3 0.1

45.3 0.1

45.3 0.2

45.4 0.4

45.5 0.6

45.6 0.8

45.7 0.9

Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago

23.2 2.6

23.2 2.2

23.2 1.2

23.1 -1.2

23 -0.5

23 -1.2

22.9 -1.1

22.8 -1.1

22.8 -1

22.8 -0.9

22.7 -0.9

22.6 -1

22.6 -1.1

22.5 -1.2

22.4 -1.2

22.4 -1.1

130.8 1.3

130.9 0.4

130.9 0.8

130.8 0.5

130.8 0

130.8 0

130.9 0

131.2 0.3

131.7 0.7

132.1 1

132.6 1.3

133.1 1.5

133.6 1.5

134.2 1.5

134.7 1.6

135.2 1.6

Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2947.9 1.5

2959.1 1.5

2970.2 1.5

2981.5 1.5

2993.2 1.5

3004.7 1.5

3016.6 1.6

3028.6 1.6

3040 1.6

3051.8 1.6

3063.8 1.6

3075.7 1.6

3087.7 1.6

3099.3 1.6

3110.9 1.5

3122.3 1.5

Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

1436.2 -0.1

1443.5 0.1

1452.9 0.5

1460.5 1.1

1468 2.2

1475.1 2.2

1483.1 2.1

1490.6 2.1

1497.6 2

1504.1 2

1511.5 1.9

1517.8 1.8

1523.5 1.7

1528.9 1.6

1534.9 1.5

1540.2 1.5

State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.6

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.1

5

5

5

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.9

5

5

5

5

11890 7955 3935

12269 8449 3821

13910 9530 4380

15041 10194 4847

15986 10823 5163

16696 11307 5388

17425 11987 5438

18655 13013 5642

19305 13606 5699

19548 13840 5708

19840 14050 5790

20149 14229 5920

20538 14513 6025

20798 14742 6056

20952 14736 6216

20986 14645 6341

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

129


Tampa – St. P etersburg – Clearwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

104.1 3.7 53.9 50.2

104.4 0.3 53.4 51

100.3 -3.9 51.1 49.2

106.7 6.3 51.3 55.4

112.1 5 53 59.1

113.5 1.3 55.6 57.9

116 2.2 57.3 58.8

120.9 4.2 60 60.9

107.2 1.2

104.4 -2.6

100.3 -3.8

105 4.6

107.6 2.5

107 -0.6

108.1 1

111.1 2.8

38.1 39.3

38 38

36.3 36.3

38.2 37.5

39.6 38

39.8 37.5

40.3 37.5

41.4 38.1

43.3 3.3

44.5 2.7

45.2 1.7

45.9 1.4

46.7 1.7

47.9 2.6

48.1 0.6

49.1 2.1

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1230.4 -0.2

1188.1 -3.4

1117.2 -6

1105.5 -1

1122.9 1.6

1148.8 2.3

1176.8 2.4

1208.5 2.7

75.9 -3.4

71.5 -5.8

61.9 -13.4

58.1 -6.1

58.8 1.1

59.4 1.2

60 1

61.2 2

1154.5 0.1

1116.6 -3.3

1055.3 -5.5

1047.4 -0.8

1064.2 1.6

1089.3 2.4

1116.7 2.5

1147.3 2.7

87.8 -7

76.4 -13

60.2 -21.2

52.8 -12.2

52.7 -0.3

54.2 2.9

57 5.1

60.5 6.1

235 -0.7

227.3 -3.3

210.5 -7.4

209.3 -0.6

213.3 1.9

219 2.7

223 1.8

231.5 3.8

54.3 151.6 29

52.9 146.7 27.8

47.7 137.1 25.7

45.9 138.3 25.1

46.3 141.3 25.8

48.5 143.9 26.6

48.9 146.7 27.3

50.4 152.5 28.6

31.8 -0.1

30.3 -4.8

27.5 -9

25.7 -6.6

25.9 0.6

25.7 -0.5

26.1 1.4

25.6 -1.8

103.2 -0.9

98.6 -4.5

93.2 -5.5

89.3 -4.1

91.5 2.5

95.5 4.4

99.7 4.3

102.4 2.7

197 -0.3

183 -7.1

169.9 -7.1

174.1 2.5

182.5 4.8

190.9 4.6

198.3 3.8

202.8 2.3

168.6 4.4

173 2.6

174.4 0.8

177.9 2

180.9 1.6

182.3 0.8

184.7 1.3

188.7 2.2

132.1 0.2

128.2 -3

122.1 -4.8

121.4 -0.6

122.9 1.3

128.3 4.4

133.3 3.9

139 4.3

47.2 1.2

46.9 -0.8

43.1 -8

41.9 -2.7

41.3 -1.6

41.1 -0.5

42.4 3.3

44.1 3.9

21.1 0.4

21.9 3.9

22.7 3.7

24 5.5

22.9 -4.6

22.6 -1.2

22.7 0.4

22.9 0.9

130.6 2

131.1 0.4

131.7 0.5

130.9 -0.6

130.4 -0.4

129.7 -0.5

129.6 -0.1

129.8 0.2

2728.9 1

2748.9 0.7

2767.8 0.7

2795.7 1

2830.2 1.2

2851.7 0.8

2880.2 1

2921 1.4

1384.3 2.7

1385.3 0.1

1373.5 -0.9

1384.9 0.8

1398.2 1

1412.4 1

1424.3 0.8

1442.7 1.3

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

130

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015

3.6

6.1

10.3

11.1

10

8.3

7

6.1

11557 8598 2959

9275 5302 3973

5900 3979 1921

6364 4530 1834

6967 4513 2454

9062 5926 3135

11608 7257 4351

12126 7393 4734


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C lear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

125.4 3.7 62.6 62.9

131.3 4.7 66.1 65.2

139.3 6 69.9 69.4

147.3 5.8 73.5 73.8

155.8 5.8 77.5 78.3

164.7 5.7 81.9 82.8

173.1 5.1 86.4 86.7

181.5 4.9 90.9 90.6

190.6 5 95.5 95

199.8 4.9 100.3 99.5

115.1 3.6

118.7 3.1

123.5 4

128 3.7

132.8 3.8

138.3 4.1

142.8 3.3

147 2.9

151.3 2.9

155.6 2.9

42.3 38.8

43.6 39.4

45.5 40.4

47.4 41.2

49.4 42.2

51.5 43.3

53.4 44.1

55.3 44.8

57.3 45.5

59.3 46.2

50.2 2.2

51.9 3.3

53.7 3.6

55.8 3.9

58.1 4.1

60.5 4

62.9 4

65.3 3.9

67.9 4

70.7 4

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1233.7 2.1

1261.7 2.3

1288.1 2.1

1305.4 1.3

1321.1 1.2

1342.9 1.6

1361.8 1.4

1379.6 1.3

1394.8 1.1

1406.8 0.9

61.3 0.1

61.5 0.2

61.7 0.4

61.7 0.1

61.6 -0.2

61.4 -0.5

61 -0.6

60.8 -0.3

60.5 -0.4

60.2 -0.5

1172.4 2.2

1200.3 2.4

1226.4 2.2

1243.7 1.4

1259.5 1.3

1281.5 1.8

1300.8 1.5

1318.8 1.4

1334.3 1.2

1346.6 0.9

62.5 3.4

67.2 7.5

73.4 9.2

78.4 6.8

81.3 3.7

84 3.3

86.6 3.1

88.6 2.2

90.3 2

91.8 1.6

238 2.8

240.2 0.9

242 0.7

243.3 0.6

243.5 0.1

244.5 0.4

245.6 0.4

246.3 0.3

246.4 0

245.9 -0.2

51.2 157 29.7

52.2 157.1 30.7

53.3 156.6 31.7

54.4 155.8 32.5

55.2 154.7 32.7

56 154.9 32.9

56.6 155.3 33

57 155.7 33.1

57.3 155.6 33.1

57.5 155.1 33

25.7 0.3

25.7 0

26.4 2.7

26.6 0.6

26.7 0.4

27.1 1.7

27.9 2.8

28.6 2.5

29.2 2

29.7 1.8

102.7 0.3

103.8 1.1

104.2 0.3

104.1 -0.1

104.1 0

104.8 0.7

105.9 1

107.2 1.2

108.4 1.1

109.5 1

204.4 0.8

217.6 6.4

227.9 4.7

231.6 1.6

237.4 2.5

246.8 4

256.2 3.8

265 3.4

272.6 2.9

278.8 2.3

195.4 3.5

200.3 2.5

203.7 1.7

206.1 1.2

208.8 1.3

211.8 1.4

214.1 1.1

216 0.9

218 0.9

219.4 0.6

144.7 4.1

146.3 1

148.4 1.4

151 1.8

152.9 1.2

154.2 0.9

155.4 0.8

155.8 0.3

155.9 0

156.1 0.1

44.8 1.8

45.2 0.8

45.3 0.2

45.6 0.7

46 0.9

46.4 0.9

46.7 0.7

47 0.5

47.3 0.6

47.6 0.8

23.2 1.2

22.9 -1

22.7 -1

22.5 -1.1

22.3 -0.7

23.7 6.3

22.7 -4.4

22.7 0.2

22.8 0.2

22.8 0.2

130.8 0.8

130.9 0.1

132.4 1.1

134.4 1.5

136.4 1.5

138.1 1.2

139.6 1.1

141.6 1.4

143.4 1.3

145 1.1

2964.7 1.5

3010.8 1.6

3057.8 1.6

3105 1.5

3150.4 1.5

3194.7 1.4

3238.2 1.4

3281.6 1.3

3325.3 1.3

3369 1.3

1448.3 0.4

1479.2 2.1

1507.7 1.9

1531.9 1.6

1549.5 1.2

1563 0.9

1575.6 0.8

1590.1 0.9

1607.3 1.1

1624.7 1.1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

5.4

5

4.9

5

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

13277 9032 4246

17190 11783 5408

19711 13931 5779

20819 14659 6160

21550 14872 6678

22358 15231 7127

22734 15319 7414

23160 15601 7559

23432 15808 7624

23719 16166 7553

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

131


Tampa – St. P etersburg – Clearwater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

209.7 4.9 105.4 104.3

222.2 6 110.9 111.3

233.7 5.1 116.3 117.4

245.3 5 121.9 123.3

257.3 4.9 127.9 129.4

269.9 4.9 134 135.8

283.5 5 140.8 142.7

298.2 5.2 147.9 150.3

313.3 5.1 154.9 158.3

328.7 4.9 161.9 166.7

160.4 3.1

164.7 2.6

169.7 3.1

174.6 2.9

179.6 2.9

184.7 2.8

190.1 2.9

196 3.1

201.8 3

207.5 2.8

61.4 47

65.1 48.3

67.7 49.2

70.3 50

72.9 50.9

75.6 51.7

78.6 52.7

81.8 53.7

85 54.8

88.3 55.7

73.5 4.1

76.6 4.2

79.6 4

82.7 3.9

85.9 3.8

89.1 3.8

92.5 3.8

95.9 3.6

99.3 3.6

102.9 3.6

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1421.1 1

1435.9 1

1448.2 0.9

1461.5 0.9

1476.9 1

1491.9 1

1509.7 1.2

1531.2 1.4

1548.5 1.1

1562.4 0.9

59.8 -0.7

59.3 -0.8

58.7 -1

58.2 -0.9

57.8 -0.7

57.6 -0.4

57.4 -0.3

57.1 -0.5

56.9 -0.4

56.7 -0.3

1361.3 1.1

1376.6 1.1

1389.4 0.9

1403.3 1

1419 1.1

1434.3 1.1

1452.3 1.3

1474.1 1.5

1491.6 1.2

1505.7 0.9

93.3 1.6

95.2 2.1

96.7 1.5

97.8 1.2

99 1.2

100.9 1.9

103.6 2.7

105.9 2.1

107.7 1.7

108.9 1.1

246.3 0.2

246.3 0

245.9 -0.2

245.9 0

245.8 0

245.2 -0.3

245.4 0.1

245.8 0.2

246 0.1

245.9 -0.1

57.5 155.3 33.2

57.5 155.5 33.3

57.4 155.2 33.3

57 155.6 33.3

56.7 155.8 33.4

56.2 155.8 33.2

55.9 156.4 33.1

55.7 157.2 32.9

55.3 157.9 32.8

54.9 158.6 32.5

30 1.1

30.6 1.9

31.2 1.9

31.7 1.8

32.3 1.8

32.7 1.4

33.3 1.7

33.9 1.8

34.6 2

35.3 2.2

110.4 0.9

112.4 1.8

113.4 0.9

114.6 1

115.9 1.1

117.2 1.1

118.7 1.3

120.2 1.2

121.7 1.2

122.9 1.1

286.6 2.8

295.7 3.2

302.9 2.4

309.7 2.2

318 2.7

325.1 2.2

334.7 3

346.7 3.6

355.6 2.6

362.8 2

220.8 0.6

221.7 0.4

223.1 0.7

225.3 1

227.6 1

229.6 0.9

232.2 1.1

235.2 1.3

237.6 1

239.5 0.8

156.3 0.1

156.4 0.1

156.8 0.2

157.7 0.6

158.6 0.6

159.2 0.4

160.4 0.7

161.7 0.8

162.9 0.7

163.8 0.6

48.3 1.3

48.7 0.8

49 0.6

49.3 0.6

49.6 0.6

49.8 0.5

50 0.3

50.2 0.4

50.5 0.6

50.8 0.5

22.9 0.4

23.2 1.3

23.4 0.7

23.5 0.6

23.7 0.6

25.3 7.1

24.2 -4.5

24.3 0.6

24.5 0.5

24.6 0.6

146.4 1

146.4 0

147.1 0.5

147.8 0.5

148.5 0.5

149.1 0.4

149.6 0.4

150.2 0.4

150.6 0.3

151.1 0.3

3412.6 1.3

3411.7 0

3451.4 1.2

3491.1 1.1

3530.4 1.1

3569.2 1.1

3607.8 1.1

3646.1 1.1

3684.2 1

3722 1

1637.4 0.8

1640.1 0.2

1651.2 0.7

1666.7 0.9

1684.3 1.1

1701.8 1

1719.5 1

1737 1

1755.1 1

1773.4 1

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

132

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

23660 16135 7524

24241 15997 8244

24949 15738 9210

24832 15101 9731

25091 15117 9974

25711 15455 10256

25768 15474 10293

25218 14845 10373

25223 14879 10344

25372 15077 10295

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


T ampa – S t . P etersburg – C lear w ater

Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

June 2015

Personal Income (Billions $)

Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

344.4 4.8 169.1 175.3

360.9 4.8 176.7 184.1

377.5 4.6 184.5 193

395.2 4.7 192.6 202.6

413.9 4.7 201.1 212.8

433.7 4.8 210 223.7

454.8 4.9 220 234.9

476.8 4.8 230.6 246.2

499.7 4.8 241.9 257.8

523.8 4.8 254 269.8

213.1 2.7

218.8 2.7

224.2 2.5

230 2.6

235.8 2.5

242 2.6

248.7 2.8

255.4 2.7

262.2 2.7

269.4 2.7

91.6 56.7

95 57.6

98.4 58.5

102.1 59.4

105.9 60.3

109.9 61.3

114.2 62.5

118.7 63.6

123.2 64.6

127.9 65.8

106.5 3.5

110.4 3.6

114.3 3.6

118.4 3.6

122.6 3.6

126.9 3.5

131.6 3.7

136.5 3.7

141.5 3.7

146.9 3.8

Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago

1575.8 0.9

1590.1 0.9

1602.8 0.8

1615.8 0.8

1629.2 0.8

1644.1 0.9

1660.8 1

1678.9 1.1

1698.3 1.2

1718.8 1.2

56.5 -0.3

56.3 -0.4

56 -0.5

55.8 -0.4

55.6 -0.4

55.3 -0.6

55 -0.5

54.6 -0.7

54.3 -0.5

54 -0.5

1519.2 0.9

1533.8 1

1546.8 0.8

1560 0.9

1573.6 0.9

1588.9 1

1605.8 1.1

1624.3 1.1

1643.9 1.2

1664.8 1.3

110.2 1.2

111.8 1.5

113.4 1.4

115.3 1.6

117.3 1.7

118.8 1.3

121 1.8

123.3 1.9

125.7 1.9

128.3 2

245.8 0

245.8 0

245.5 -0.1

245.3 -0.1

244.9 -0.1

244.5 -0.2

244.2 -0.1

243.7 -0.2

243.1 -0.2

242.9 -0.1

54.3 159.4 32.1

53.8 160.4 31.6

53.2 161.2 31.1

52.7 162 30.6

52.1 162.6 30.2

51.8 163 29.7

51.6 163.4 29.2

51.6 163.3 28.8

51.7 163.1 28.3

52 163.1 27.8

36.2 2.4

37 2.3

37.8 2.1

38.6 2.1

39.4 2

40.1 1.8

41 2.4

42.1 2.6

43 2.2

43.9 2.1

124.1 1

125.3 0.9

126.4 0.9

127.7 1

128.8 0.8

129.9 0.9

131.1 1

132.3 0.9

133.3 0.8

134.2 0.7

369.7 1.9

376.8 1.9

383.5 1.8

389.3 1.5

395.9 1.7

403.4 1.9

413.6 2.5

424.6 2.7

437.4 3

451.1 3.1

240.9 0.6

242.7 0.8

244.3 0.6

246.2 0.8

248 0.7

250.3 0.9

252.6 0.9

254.7 0.8

256.4 0.7

257.7 0.5

164.9 0.7

166 0.6

166.8 0.5

167.9 0.6

168.8 0.6

169.5 0.4

170.2 0.4

170.7 0.3

171.2 0.3

171.8 0.3

51 0.4

51.2 0.4

51.3 0.2

51.5 0.4

51.8 0.5

51.9 0.3

52.1 0.3

52.2 0.2

52.3 0.2

52.3 0.1

24.8 0.7

24.9 0.6

25.1 0.6

25.2 0.5

25.3 0.4

26.5 4.9

25.5 -3.9

25.7 0.8

25.7 0

25.9 0.7

151.6 0.3

152.1 0.3

152.6 0.3

153 0.3

153.5 0.3

154 0.3

154.6 0.4

155 0.3

155.9 0.5

156.8 0.6

3759.6 1

3797 1

3834.2 1

3871.3 1

3908.4 1

3945.1 0.9

3981.6 0.9

4017.9 0.9

4056.9 1

4095.6 1

1792.3 1.1

1810.8 1

1828.5 1

1845.8 0.9

1863.2 0.9

1879.4 0.9

1895.1 0.8

1910.2 0.8

1923.6 0.7

1936.7 0.7

Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.6

25606 15384 10222

25525 15397 10128

25377 15416 9961

25412 15465 9947

25287 15340 9947

25460 15465 9995

25665 15693 9972

25728 15720 10008

26027 15997 10031

26350 16360 9990

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

133


I N D U S T R Y L O C AT I O N Q U O T I E N T

EXPLANATION AND INTERPRETATION This technique compares the local economy to a reference economy; in this case, the local economy is the chosen MSA, and the reference economy is the state of Florida. An Industry Location Quotient (LQ) is calculated to determine if the local economy has a greater share of each industry’s employment than the reference economy. The LQ helps to identify specializations that exist in the local economy. There are only three possible outcomes: 1. An LQ greater than one 2. An LQ equal to one and 3. An LQ less than one. An LQ that is greater than one means that the share of local employment in that particular industry is greater than the reference economy employment share in that same industry. This implies that some of the goods or services produced by that industry are exported for consumption elsewhere. An LQ of one means that local demand is met by the local industry. No goods/services are imported or exported from the local area in that industry. The share of local employment in that industry is equal to the share for that industry in the reference economy. An LQ less than one implies that the industry is not meeting local demand for that good or service, and in order to meet demand, that area must import that good or service. This also means that the share of local employment in that industry is less than the share of employment in that industry for the reference economy.

CALCULATION An industry location quotient is a calculated ratio of two ratios. LQ = ((Local employment in industry A in year T / Total local employment in year T) / (Reference economy employment in industry A in year T) / (Total reference employment in year T)) For example: Orlando MSA employment for Information is 27,400 Total Orlando MSA nonagricultural employment is 1,104,100 Florida employment for Information is 169,800 Total Florida nonagricultural employment is 8,247,000 LQ = ((27,400 / 1,104,100) / (169,800 / 8,247,000)) = 1.2039 Source: Florida Regional Economic Database, Current Employment Statistics, December 2006 134

Florida & Metro Forecast - June 2015


SEAN M. SNAITH, PH.D.

We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. An award-winning forecaster, researcher and professor, Snaith has served as a consultant for governments and multi-national corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF’s College of Business Administration, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in national and regional media and is a sought-after speaker. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and CNNMoney.com and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Business News Network, based in Toronto. Known for his engaging presentations, Snaith earned praise from one business editor for having an “uncanny knack for making economics not only understandable but interesting.” Snaith is a member of several national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press’ Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com’s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today’s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith was named by Bloomberg News as one of the nation’s most accurate forecasters in 2008. In 2007, he was named California’s most accurate forecaster by the Western Blue Chip Consensus Forecast. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University. FOR MORE INFORMATION Sean Snaith, Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida P.O. Box 161400 Orlando, FL 32816 PH: 407.823.1451 FAX: 407.823.1454 E-MAIL: sean.snaith@ucf.edu www.iec.ucf.edu


UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA College of Business Administration Institute for Economic Competitiveness P. O . B o x 1 6 1 4 0 0 , O r l a n d o , F l o r i d a 3 2 8 1 6 P H 4 0 7 . 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 3 F A X 4 0 7 . 8 2 3 . 1 4 5 4 w w w. i e c . u c f . e d u

Florida & Metro Forecast June 2015  

Florida & Metro Forecast June 2015

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