Cairns Q2 Property Report

CAIRNS Quarterly Property Report: April - June 2025 POST ELECTION & RATE CUT EDITION

Brought to you by Daniel Roser

WELCOME TO MY LATEST QUARTERLY MARKET UPDATE With the federal election behind us and interest rates finally easing, I’ve had plenty of questions about where the market is headed. In this edition, I’ll explain the key housing policies introduced by the Labour government and show how lower rates are likely to shape our local market.

WHAT’S STAYING PUT?

Superannuation Tax

You’ll be pleased to know that negative gearing and the 50% capital gains tax discount aren’t going anywhere. That means whether you’re an investor or a homeowner, you can plan your next move without worrying about surprise rule changes.

From 1 July 2025, super balances over $3 million will attract an extra 15% tax on all earnings, including unrealised gains. This means property value increases in your fund could trigger tax even without a sale.

WHAT’S NEW? National Housing Accord The government has pledged to roll out 1.2 million new homes over five years, promising smoother planning approvals and major infrastructure spending to ease our ongoing supply squeeze.

Help to Buy shared equity First home buyers can team up with the government for a smaller deposit, lower lenders’ mortgage insurance fees and less stress getting their foot in the door. There’s even a regional guarantee designed for Cairns locals.

Build to rent incentives Purpose-built rental properties are on the way, backed by a 10 billion dollar Housing Australia Future Fund.

This should lift rental quality and give tenants and investors far more choice.

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INTEREST RATES AND WHAT THEY MEAN FOR CAIRNS Everyone’s favourite topic (but only when they’re falling!) is interest rates.

After peaking in late 2023, the RBA cash rate is widely tipped to continue easing, with many economists expecting up to four quarter-point cuts by mid-2026. Translation? Lower repayments and a bit more breathing room for your budget.

How this plays out locally SELLERS: Buyer demand is already strong, and with rate cuts on the horizon, competition is set to intensify – now’s a great time to market your home.

BUYERS: If you haven’t already, chat with your lender about pre-approval so you can be ready to move when the perfect property comes up.

INVESTORS: Improved cash flow from lower interest costs could make some properties more attractive than ever.

It’s a good moment to review your portfolio and spot the winners.

DEMAND: Lower borrowing costs will bring more buyers off the sidelines, particularly first home buyers using shared equity schemes, and investors chasing better cash flow.

STOCK: New listings may tick up slightly as confidence returns, but until development approvals turn into completed homes, choice will remain limited.

LIFESTYLE APPEAL: Cairns’ lifestyle benefits and regional infrastructure investment will keep attracting relocators and downsizers, supporting strong interest in acreage and family friendly neighbourhoods.

Overall, expect a market that rewards sellers who price realistically and buyers who are pre-approved and ready to act once those rate cuts arrive.

I hope you find this update useful and informative for your property plans. As always, if you have questions or need a hand, I’m just a call or email away.

MY MARKET FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS With stock levels still tight and rate cuts likely, I expect steady momentum rather than explosive growth, especially in suburbs like Edmonton and the southern corridor.

PRICES: Moderate growth of around 3 to 5 per cent over the year, underpinned by scarce supply.

Daniel Roser 0423 647 751 daniel@tspropertygroup.com.au Twomey Schriber Property Group

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43-45 Wirrah Close, Bayview Heights Sold $700,000

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TWOMEY SCHRIBER’S SALES FOR THE PAST 3 MONTHS

142

Highest Sale

Total properties sold

$1,395,000

86 36 Units 19 Land 1 Other

Houses

Lowest Sale

$210,000

Total Value Sold

Enquiries

$90.8M

4,989

Median Days On Market

Open Home Attendees

13

2,179

CAIRNS (4870) CURRENT MARKET STATISTICS

$789,481 $386,089 Average asking price (house)

Average asking price (unit)

361 New listings for Q2

0.6% Vacancy rate Above data obtained from sqmresearch.com.au and is correct as at 01/07/2025 Twomey Schriber Property Group

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FAQ: Part 1 - How Federal Government Policies May Affect You The following key housing-related policies from the Australian Labor Government continue to shape the property landscape. Whether you’re a homeowner, investor, buyer, or tenant, here’s how they may impact you.

HOMEOWNERS/OWNEROCCUPIERS

INVESTORS

National Housing Accord

Negative Gearing & CGT Discount Maintained

What it is: The federal government is working with state governments and the private sector to build 1.2 million new homes across Australia over five years. This includes updating planning rules, improving infrastructure like roads and public transport, and encouraging new developments to happen faster and in places where people want to live.

What it is: The government is keeping the current rules the same for property investors. This means if your rental property costs more to run than it earns, you can claim the loss to reduce your tax (this is called negative gearing). And if you sell the property after owning it for over a year, you only pay tax on half of the profit you make.

What it means for you:

What it means for you:

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Potential future uplift in your area if zoning is relaxed or infrastructure spending improves local amenity.

Could slightly moderate price growth in the long term as more homes become available.

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Continues to support cash flow strategies, particularly for geared investments.

Preserves after-tax returns on long-term capital growth.

Reduces investor uncertainty and supports property portfolio planning.

Build-to-Rent Incentives What it is: The government is encouraging large developers to build more rental-only apartment buildings by offering them tax breaks and making the approval process easier.

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What it means for you: • •

More competition in some rental markets, especially metro areas.

Encourages uplift in rental quality, potentially prompting renovations or upgrades to stay competitive.

Crackdown on Foreign Investor Compliance What it is: The government is stepping up efforts to make sure foreign investors follow the rules when buying Australian property. This includes checking that foreign buyers have approval to purchase, making sure they aren’t leaving homes or land vacant without reason, and applying extra taxes or penalties if they break the rules.

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Superannuation Balances Over $3 million What it is: The government is introducing an extra tax on individuals with superannuation balances above $3 million. From 1 July 2025, any investment gains, including increases in value even if you haven’t sold, on the portion over $3 million will attract an additional 15% tax. This effectively raises the tax rate on those earnings to 30%.

What it means for you: •

What it means for you: • •

If you’re a foreign investor, tighter scrutiny on compliance.

For domestic investors, minimal direct impact but signals a push for transparency and fairness.

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Supply Boost via the Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) What it is: The government has set aside $10 billion to build 30,000 homes across Australia. These homes will be available at lower rents or offered to people doing it tough, like low-income earners or those at risk of homelessness.

What it means for you: •

Over time, this could reduce demand for lower-cost private rentals, as more affordable housing becomes available. This may put downward pressure on rental returns for older or lower-end investment properties,

particularly in areas where tenant competition is currently strong.

More rental choices may shift some tenants away from older private rental

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If your super balance stays below $3 million, you’re unaffected.

If your balance is over $3 million, you could face higher tax each year, even without making withdrawals.

Because unrealised gains are included, you may have to pay tax without receiving any cash. For example, if a property held in your self-managed super fund goes up in value by $200,000, that increase counts towards your taxable earnings, even if you haven’t sold it.

Over time, more people may be affected as balances grow and the threshold doesn’t rise with inflation.

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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FIRST HOME BUYERS & GENERAL BUYERS Help to Buy (Shared Equity Scheme) What it is: This is a new government program designed to help people get into the property market. The government chips in up to 40% of the purchase price for a brand-new home, or 30% for an existing one. You only need a 2% deposit to buy, and you don’t have to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), which can save you thousands.

What it means for you: •

Significantly lowers upfront costs for eligible buyers.

Lets you buy sooner and in better areas than you may have previously afforded.

Long-term trade-off is shared capital gains with the government.

When you sell, refinance, or choose to buy back the government’s share, you’ll repay them based on the home’s current market value. You can start buying back their share after two years, in small chunks if you wish.

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First Home Guarantee Schemes What it is: This is different from the Help to Buy scheme. Instead of the government owning part of your home, they simply act as a guarantor on your home loan if you have at least a 5% deposit. This means you don’t need to pay Lenders Mortgage Insurance (LMI), which banks normally charge when your deposit is under 20%.

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There is also a special version called the Regional First Home Buyer Guarantee, which applies to buyers in regional areas like Cairns. It works the same way but is specifically reserved for people who have lived in a regional area for the past 12 months.

This version is designed to help locals compete with investors and city buyers.

What it means for you: • • •

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Faster access to the market without needing a full 20% deposit.

Saves you thousands by avoiding LMI. Expanded eligibility includes permanent residents, friends/ siblings, and buyers re-entering after 10+ years.

If you’re buying in a regional area, the Regional Guarantee may increase your chances of being approved under the scheme.

National Planning Reforms What it is: The government is working with states and local councils to make it easier and faster to build new homes. This includes simplifying the rules for getting building approvals and encouraging more medium and highdensity housing, especially in areas close to jobs, schools, and transport.

What it means for you: • •

More housing availability may help ease price pressures over time.

Greater choice of new developments and infill housing in established areas.

TENANTS Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) What it is: The government is spending $10 billion to build 30,000 homes across Australia. These homes will be offered at lower rents and are aimed at helping people who are struggling — such as those on low incomes, older renters, or people at risk of homelessness.

What it means for you: • •

Increased access to affordable rental options.

Long-term relief in regions where rental vacancies are lowest.

Build-to-Rent Projects What it is: These are large apartment buildings that are built just for renting, not for selling. The government is supporting these projects to make renting more stable, affordable, and secure. These homes are managed by professional companies and often come with longer lease options and better amenities.

Short-Term Rental Regulation Support What it is: The federal government is backing efforts by states to limit the number of short-term holiday rentals, like those listed on Airbnb. These limits are being introduced in areas where too many properties are being used for short stays instead of permanent homes, which is making it harder for locals to find a place to rent.

What it means for you: • •

Frees up homes for long-term rental markets.

Could help reduce rental competition and stabilise rent prices, especially in tourist-heavy areas.

What it means for you: • •

More choice of secure, wellmanaged rental properties.

May reduce reliance on short-term or lower-quality private rentals.

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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Part 2 - Understanding the Reserve Bank and the Rate Cut Cycle (Mid 2025) With interest rates starting to come down again, many people are wondering what it all means. Here’s a simple guide to help you understand the current rate cut cycle, why it’s happening, and how it affects every day Australians.

What is the Rate Cut Cycle?

Will Banks Pass On the Rate Cuts?

The “rate cut cycle” refers to a period when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decides to lower the official cash rate. The cash rate influences how much interest banks charge on loans, including home loans.

Most of the big banks will pass on RBA rate cuts to customers with variable rate loans, though not always immediately. Fixed-rate loans stay the same until they expire.

After several years of rising rates to fight inflation, the RBA is now beginning to lower rates again to support the economy as inflation slows and cost-of-living pressures ease.

Why is the RBA Cutting Rates?

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Inflation is falling back towards the RBA’s 2–3% target range Economic growth is slowing, and higher rates have made mortgages and living costs harder to manage The RBA wants to avoid a recession, so lower rates help keep households and businesses spending

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Here’s what to expect: •

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Variable home loan holders will usually see a rate drop within 1–4 weeks after the RBA’s announcement Savings account rates may drop too — banks usually adjust both Some smaller lenders may pass on cuts faster to stay competitive

How It Impacts Weekly Mortgage Repayments The table below shows estimated weekly repayments for various loan sizes before the most recent RBA rate cut, what they look like now, and what they could drop to if there’s another 0.25% cut: (Note: Based on 30-year loan term, principal & interest repayments. Rounded to nearest dollar.)

Loan Amount

Previous Weekly Repayment (6.25%)

Current Weekly Repayment (6.00%)

With Another Rate Cut (5.75%)

Potential Rate At End Of 2025 (5.25%)

$300,000

$427

$416

$405

$382

$400,000

$569

$554

$540

$509

$500,000

$712

$693

$675

$637

$600,000

$854

$832

$809

$764

$700,000

$996

$970

$944

$891

$800,000

$1,139

$1,109

$1,078

$1,018

$900,000

$1,281

$1,247

$1,213

$1,145

$1,000,000

$1,423

$1,386

$1,347

$1,273

Borrowing Power: What an Interest Rate Cut Adds When interest rates fall, banks usually allow buyers to borrow more, because lower repayments mean people can afford bigger loans without breaking their budgets.

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A 0.25% rate cut typically increases how much a bank will let someone borrow by about 5–6% For example, if your household income is around $121,000 a year (the Australian average), you might be able to borrow an extra $45,000– $55,000 compared to before the rate cut This can be the difference between buying a smaller home and something with more space or in a better area For a high income household earning $225,000 annually, a 0.25% interest rate cut could potentially increase borrowing capacity by approximately $70,000–$85,000.

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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5 Jollife Street, Edmonton Sold $781,050

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Twomey Schriber Property Group

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SOME CLIENTS WE HAVE HELPED THIS YEAR

43-45 Wirrah Cl, Bayview Heights Sold price: $700,000

17 Isley Street, Edmonton Sold price: $595,000

5 Jollife Street, Edmonton Sold price: $781,050

4 MacAlister Place, Smithfield Sold price: $650,000

66 Anderson Rd, Woree Sold price: $593,000

6 Jarar Close, Goldsborough Sold price: $426,000

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1-3 Galeano Ave, Goldsborough Sold price: $325,000

8/8 Bell Street, Bungalow Sold price: $280,000

4 Ash Street, Holloways Beach Sold price: $620,000

9-11 Anthony Ct, Goldsborough Sold price: $325,000

42 West Parkridge Dr, Brinsmead Sold price: $800,000

136/58-62 Ardisia St, Smithfield Sold price: $385,000

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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WHY TWOMEY SCHRIBER? 2025 Statistics: January - June

263

Properties sold

$162.1m 14

Median days on market

8,783

Enquiries received

4,228

Active buyers

3,759

Open home attendees

19

Sales team members

300+ 12% 16

Value of properties sold

Combined years experience

Top market share in Cairns

4 Ash Street, Holloways Beach Sold $620,000

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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TESTIMONIALS

Selling a house can be stressful but Daniel has made this experience so incredibly easy. He would call us with some great advice and update us on all of the information throughout the process.

- Seller

Professional & Personal. We had been house hunting for a few months and numerous Agents promised to help match us to our new home and keep us informed of new listings, but didn’t.

Daniel touched base with us after we attend one of his Open Homes and he truly listened to what we were looking for in a home.

Not only have we found the right home for our family but Daniel made the process so simple. He knew his Client and his product well, so was able to answer all of our questions and we moved through the purchase with no delays.

- Buyer

Consistently meets client expectations for property purchase price.

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Excellent Service / A True Professional. Daniel Roser provided excellent service. He was always very knowledgeable with all the current market trends and was upfront with honest communication. Daniel was always a true professional and a pleasure to communicate with him.

I wish all the best to continue his excellent work.

- Seller

Daniel is a great agent. This is one of many dealings we have had the pleasure of dealing with Dan. He has always been very approachable, honest and hardworking.

Nothing was ever too much trouble for Dan and we were very happy with the level of service and professionalism that he offered my husband and myself on our recent sale with him.

- Seller

Daniel Roser 0423 647 751 | daniel@tspropertygroup.com.au

CLICK TO READ ALL MY CLIENT REVIEWS

Twomey Schriber Property Group

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320 Sheridan Street, Cairns North QLD 4870 Email: daniel@tspropertygroup.com.au Mobile: 0423 647 751 Phone: (07) 4031 3138 Website: www.tspropertygroup.com.au

Data taken from CoreLogic and other sources we assume to be reliable as at 01/07/25. We assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content. The information contained in this document has no guarantees of completeness, accuracy, usefulness or timeliness.