Golden Slipper 2024

GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024

A new way of looking at thoroughbred types and practical examples by investigating the 2024 Golden Slipper field

GOLDEN SLIPPER 2024 How dosages can help us find a winner

Ross Prowd

TURF MONTHLY

Golden Slipper 2024

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e

Storm Boy (Justify) Fully Lit (Hellbent) Shangri La Express (Alabama Express) Rue De Royale (Per Incanto) Traffic Warden (Street Boss) Straight Charge (Written By) Switzerland (Snitzel) Bodyguard (I Am Invincible) Dublin Down (Exceedance) Coleman (Pierata) Holmes A Court (Capitalist) Prost (Snitzel) Hayasugi (Royal Meeting) Lady Of Camelot (Written Tycoon) Manaal (Tassort) Eneeza (Exceed And Excel) Espionage (Zoustar)

[0.75/3.00] [1.30/9.00] [0.83/4.14] [0.64/2.60] [0.79/3.00] [1.56/31.00] [1.15/6.43] [1.38/8.33] [1.03/4.14] [0.69/3.24] [1.18/6.33] [1.12/4.60] [1.08/8.60] [1.06/5.80] [1.50/19.00] [1.15/4.75] [1.05/3.75]

[7-7-14-0-0] [15-9-6-0-0] [9-14-12-0-1] [9-9-16-0-2] [10-8-15-1-0] [10-5-1-0-0] [11-8-7-0-0] [25-8-9-0-0] [15-8-12-1-0] [7-15-11-2-1] [10-6-6-0-0] [22-7-11-0-2] [7-12-5-0-0] [12-12-10-0-0] [12-6-2-0-0] [23-8-14-1-0] [18-4-16-0-0]

It is time for the biggest 2yo race in the world: the Golden Slipper. Everyone is looking for a winner and there are plenty of ways of assessing the field. Dosage is a study that dates back over 100 years, and it can be useful in determining the type and aptitude of a racehorse. It also gives us a unique perspective on this year’s race. History is important, and in the last ten running’s of the event, we see that eight winners have a dosage index between 3.00 and a little over 5.00. Many might imagine that this would have been much higher considering that the dosage index can often be linked to speed and precocity. One thing that the study does teach us is that balance is critical in the thoroughbred, and these figures are a great example of the need to balance speed and stamina within a racehorse. We need to be aware that when we are talking about stamina, it is not necessarily the ability to run two miles, but the ability to be strong at the end of their races, whether it is 1200m or 3200m. If this year’s result is similar to the recent trend, then we will see around half of the field that are unlikely to take home the trophy. This includes the second favourite, Switzerland. We must be careful to point out that the assessment does not consider horses that have been placed in the race, and they could in fact have a different profile than past winners so that does not rule out Switzerland from filling one of the minor roles.

History just doesn’t tell us about dosages, and we have an interesting observation about the breeding of recent winners. Snitzel, Exceed And Excel and Written Tycoon are the only three sires with runners who have previously had a winner of the Golden Slipper. In the case of Snitzel, it was last year’s winner, Shinzo as well as Estijaab in 2018. Exceed And Excel sired 2013 winner, Overreach. In 2024, Snitzel is represented by Switzerland and Prost, while Exceed And Excel is represented by the filly, Eneeza. Written Tycoon gave us the 2016 winner, Capitalist. He has Lady Camelot in the race while Capitalist also is the sire of Holmes A Court. Another son of Written Tycoon in Written By is the sire of Straight Charge and he is out of a mare by I Am Invincible and bred on real speed lines but looks to lack the balance needed in a Golden Slipper winner. Still, it might be in this role that I Am Invincible will find Slipper success as oddly this champion stallion has never sired a Golden Slipper winner and this year is represented by Bodyguard. It would seem

that he is unlikely to break his duck in 2024, and may well be destined to never sire a Golden Slipper winner. His son Hellbent is the sire of Fully Lit, while his grandson, Tassort has Manaal in the race, so the stallion continues to play an important role in the race. Arguably, Justify might be considered unlucky not to have his name on the list with last year’s favourite, Learning To Fly being injured during the race.

Street Cry is the only stallion whose has a daughter who has produced a Golden Slipper winner.

He was the damsire of 2020 winner, Farnan and this year is in this position in the pedigree of Espionage. Quite incredibly Redoute’s Choice never had a daughter with a Golden Slipper winner, and to date, neither has Exceed And Excel. It is interesting to note that Fastnet Rock is well represented as the damsire of three runners including the favourite this year.

While Magic Millions winners do not have a great record in the Golden Slipper, this year could be one of those years where we see an outstanding 2yo who can take both events, and perhaps even more as the season progresses. Storm Boy has had a huge wrap on him from his first appearance, and there is nothing to suggest that any of the runners in the field can lower his colours on Saturday. His dosage profile sits well with past winners at [0.75/3.00] which is similar to Vancouver [0.65/3.00], She Will Reign [0.92/3.22] and Farnan [0.89/3.22]. This year Traffic Warden and Coleman also fit in this range. The other most popular range is that around 5.00 and this year we see Prost and Eneeza not far from this. Both are at long odds but either is capable of a bold run and should not be discounted in multiples. Two of the past three winners have seen a dosage index at 4.00 or close to that. Shangri La Express and Dublin Down both fit this range, and Dublin Down looks the best of these two for Saturday.

The 2024 Golden Slipper looks to be at the mercy of Storm Boy who is a well-deserved favourite.

Switzerland is a risk although looks a good horse and could easily manage a place. There are others though that look a better chance at good odds and Prost, Eneeza and Dublin Down could easily surprise at big odds.

Selections 1. Storm Boy 2. Prost 3. Dublin Down Past winners 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014

SHINZO Snitzel FIREBURN Rebel Dane STAY INSIDE Extreme Choice FARNAN Not A Single Doubt KIAMICHI Sidestep ESTIJAAB Snitzel SHE WILL REIGN Manhattan Rain CAPITALIST Written Tycoon VANCOUVER Medaglia D’oro MOSSFUN Mossman

[1.00/4.33] [0.27/1.60] [0.93/4.00] [0.89/3.22] [1.36/8.78] [1.07/5.00] [0.92/3.22] [1.04/5.22] [0.65/3.00] [1.03/4.82]

[16-11-8-1-2] [3-6-14-1-2] [10-8-12-0-0] [14-6-18-0-0] [25-11-7-1-0] [12-8-10-0-0] [15-6-16-1-0] [10-9-9-0-0] [6-16-16-2-0] [12-10-9-1-0]