6 minute read
Drawing the Lines
The census, redistricting, and rural water
By TRWA Paralegal Brittney Melancon, ACP
The United States Constitution requires a national census to be conducted every 10 years. The first round of the 2020 census results has finally come in, and it shouldn’t come as a shock that Texas is experiencing a population boom. Texas now has over 29 million people that call the state home, and the additional growth has resulted in Texas gaining two additional congressional seats. In the time since the results have come out, the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts has compiled and published data that indicates Texas’s largest urban areas and surrounding suburbs experienced the biggest population gains. Looking at the sharp upward trendlines, this growth shows no signs of stopping anytime soon. Because this new development and migration is focused in suburban and urban areas, rural parts of the state are almost certain to lose representation when the Texas Legislature begins the redistricting process.
The Redistricting Process and Important Upcoming Deadlines
Every 10 years following the release of detailed census data, the Texas Legislature redraws state and federal district boundaries that will shape the political landscape for the next decade. This is typically done in the legislative session following a census year, which this year started on January 12th and ended on May 31st. However, due to delays from the United States Census Bureau in getting data to the states following last year’s unusual census during the pandemic, a special session will be called this fall to address redistricting. Following initial preliminary data in April, a more complete picture of Texas’s population growth was released in early August. The key takeaways from this more updated report are that Texas is now home to three of the country’s 10 largest cities and four of the fastest-growing. All 10 of the state’s fastest growing counties in the last decade were suburban. Additionally, we now know that Texans of color accounted for 95% of the state’s population growth. Following the release of this huge trove of census data specific down to the block, Texas Legislative aides have now begun the process of drafting maps and identifying the population changes down to the neighborhood level. Texas Representative Todd Hunter told his colleagues to expect the data to be ready for them by September 1. The delays in the redistricting process caused by the late census data present some major challenges to the 2022 election cycle. Several key tasks must be performed to ensure that primary elections proceed as planned on March 1, 2022. If the redistricting process takes longer than usual to carry out, we may see the courts extend the candidate filing periods, which would delay the primary elections. It is also possible that 2022 elections could proceed utilizing 2010 census data and maps, though it is unclear how this would affect the two new seats Texas will be getting in the U.S. Congress due to its population growth.
Why is redistricting important?
Representation. Redistricting is the process through which the legislature decides how eligible Texans are organized into voting blocs. The makeup of these districts then determines who will have political power to distribute Texas’s resources and set state-wide policy. Once redistricting occurs, the new state legislature and Texas congressional delegation selected from the newly redrawn districts will choose which issues to confront and which ones to ignore. Redistricting to reflect the realistic demographics of an area can determine the failure or success elected officials achieve in representing diverse communities. Redistricting every 10 years in response to census data provides an opportunity for communities to level the playing field and obtain representation who will fight for their local constituents’ concerns.
In addition to these stated effects on representation, the census and redistricting process also affects local economies. Undercounting a local population even to the smallest degree can have consequences. As an example, an entrepreneur opening a coffee shop may be looking for a younger population with disposable income. Without accurate demographic data at their disposal, that business owner may be unable to make the safest investment decisions, which can ultimately hurt that local economy if the shop is under-performing or goes out of business altogether. If the population numbers are not accurately reflected, state and local governments could also miss out on federal funding meant to help those who need it most.
When drawing new electoral maps, legislators often seek to draw boundaries to give them an advantage in elections using tactics commonly referred to as “cracking” and “packing.” “Cracking” is when legislators spread voters of a particular type among multiple districts to avoid specific demographic voting blocs, whereas “packing” is when legislators concentrate voters of one type into a single district to diminish their influence in other districts. When these two tactics are used together to minimize the influence of different voting blocs, the practice is known as gerrymandering. Through gerrymandering, one party can strengthen political advantages and influence election outcomes.
In Texas’s rural water and wastewater industry, accurate reflection of changing demographics is vital to an area receiving federal and state funds to help bolster the infrastructure required for new and continuing development. The Texans living in a water or wastewater provider’s service area are most likely to be invested in the issues that provide safe and affordable drinking water to their homes. Accurate mapping and redistricting allow for the collective influence of water supply corporations or districts to be combined effectively with the voters they service.
How will Texas look in the future?
The map on this page reflects the projected population change in Texas counties between 2020 to 2050. Central Texas, the Permian Basin, and the Upper Gulf Coast areas are expected to gain the most within that timeframe. The Texas Comptroller expects the Permian Basin to increase by more than 300% by 2050 due to the area’s oil industry. Much of the population growth in Texas is projected to come from the large urban counties of Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis, but the fastest growth is projected to occur in the suburban rings surrounding these counties according to the Texas Demographic Center. The top 10 counties projected to have the fastest growth rates are a combination of suburban counties, such as Hays, Kendall, Williamson, Fort Bend, Comal, and Denton, and counties in the Permian Basin area, including Andrews, Crane, Midland, and Ector. Andrews County is projected to grow at the fastest rate of all the Texas counties. Overall, the census data paints a picture that most of the state is growing; however, the sheer scale of the state’s cities and suburbs far outpaces the still-growing rural areas of the state, even in the fast-growing Permian Basin region. This is why rural areas are expected to lose representation despite consistent growth — by law, there are only so many districts to go around.
This wasn’t the first time that Texas counties dominated the U.S. list for having the most counties to top the 10 fastest growing. In 2010, Hays, Comal, Kendall, and Williamson counties all made the list too. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington had the largest numeric growth, with its population increasing by 1,206,599 (19.0%), followed by Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land increasing by 1,145,654 (19.4%), and Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown up by 510,760 (29.8%). Texas has added more population than any other state and it seems to be a trend that will likely continue in the years to come.
