Where Do We Go From Here?

COVID-19 shocked the world, what comes next?

Article by Ryan Zehnder

As nationwide vaccination rates climb, Americans wait with baited breath for the day when they can officially “move on” from the pandemic. No one knows for sure when mask-wearing will fall out of ubiquity, or when mass gatherings will return to full capacity. Many, vaccinated or otherwise, live today as if the pandemic were over, but undeniably, the aftershock of COVID-19 remains, and the consequences for many Americans only continue to multiply.

The notion that there exists a definitive conclusion to the pandemic is attractive, but it may not be realistic. There will be a last time each and every one of us dons a mask to leave the house. But structurally, COVID-19 has permanently altered the fabric of our everyday lives, in schools, the workplace and the marketplace.

The Virtual Generation

Nationwide school closure represents an enduring controversy of the pandemic. Initial criticism of the policy was almost entirely cynical, originating from bad actors of the libertarian right who associated the development with totalitarian control. In Spring 2020, there existed a clear imperative for sweeping, unprecedented lockdown measures, and precisely because of the urgency of the situation, the effectiveness of remote learning was completely unknown.

School closure has been undeniably effective in combating viral spread, but the negative externalities for disadvantaged students have been substantial. In practice, virtual school has deepened socioeconomic inequities in education, an example of how the pandemic has allocated its suffering explicitly through class. A Yale study, in an analysis of the effect of online schooling, estimated that students from the poorest 20% of communities stood to lose up to 25% of their future earning potential. Students from the richest 20% of communities expect to suffer “no substantial losses.” For the impacted students, this loss is permanent, and

a mere “return to normalcy” won’t be enough. In the case of the pandemic, school closure was unavoidable; the least we can do is recognize that inequity in education is not an issue of individual effort, but a systemic problem exacerbated by child poverty.

Economic Oxymorons

In February 2020, global markets collapsed, fearing the oncoming pandemic and the inevitable crises of consumption that were to follow. Over the next month, American labor suffered a similar shock to investors, over 10 million filed for unemployment benefits, dwarfing records set during the Great Depression. Joblessness and general economic insecurity has put more Americans on a razor’s edge than ever before. A survey found that over half of respondents were not prepared to make an emergency payment of $400. Breadlines continue to make national news, and tens of millions fear eviction on top of food insecurity and continued joblessness.

During the ongoing humanitarian crisis the pandemic has spawned among working Americans and the global poor, billionaires collectively increased their wealth by almost $4 trillion, according to Oxfam. The markets mirror the growth seen amongst the richest, as April 2021 marks a consecutive year of bullish returns across indexes.

The described trend deserves to reach mass consciousness, as it should be understood that the pandemic caused no net loss of resources, wealth or prosperity. Instead, the pandemic facilitated an upward transfer of wealth from the class of essential workers and the newly unemployed to the richest of our society.

Federal and State Failures

Today, the majority of pandemic-related headlines are relatively positive. Cynical trendlines and horrifying anecdotes dominated months of the news cycle, until eventually, the journalistic ethos shifted from “‘At War With No Ammo’: Doctors Say Shortage of Protective

Gear Is Dire” to “Vaccinated Americans, Let the Unmasked Gatherings Begin” (both New York Times front pages, a year apart). That we have crested the hill of the pandemic is worth celebrating to be sure, but failing to consider how we got here—here meaning with 570,000 Americans dead— is folly.

The absence of a coherent, centralized federal strategy is most obviously to blame. While the former president’s rhetoric and general disinterest in managing the virus certainly did not help, the problem goes beyond the executive branch. Trump drew attention, but the real decisions concerning reopening, mask mandates, quarantine orders and contact tracing largely occurred at the state level.

Florida is a perfect example. In October, Governor DeSantis vowed the state would never re-enter lockdown. Tallahassee removed all statewide restrictions, and, by executive order, prevented municipal governments from enforcing local restrictions. October saw daily cases sink to between 2,000-3,000, down over 70% from the previous peak in July. But by January, after four months of inaction, daily cases skyrocketed to new highs, with January 8 setting a new record for infections in one state in a day (19,530).

The emergent theme of American pandemic policy, at both the federal and state level, is the government’s unwillingness and repeated inability to take responsibility for the health and safety of its citizens. The federal government deferred authority to states, and states such as Florida passed the mantle to the individual, offering no statewide testing or vaccination infrastructure let alone restrictions of their own. Going forward, we must consider the efficacy of a federalist structure in responding to national crises, and demand that governments take responsibility for their failure.

Now is the time, in the wake of widespread institutional failure, to advocate for sweeping changes to the way we perceive government. This pandemic may be drawing to a close, but the next national crisis could be right around the corner, and without a strong, organized response that prioritizes health and safety, history is sure to repeat itself.