Letter from America - Rick Derr

Stats at the halfway point of toy sales for 2025

After 20 years working at A.C. Nielsen/D&B Research Company, Rick opened the first Learning Express Toys franchise in the Chicago area in 1996 and then became a sub-franchiser. Although leaving the corporate environment behind, he has combined his expertise in data and numbers with a passion for the toy retail space. This month, Rick gives us a snapshot of US indie sales after the first six months of 2025.

Let’s take a look at what has been happening at indie retail over the past few months, as we reach the halfway point of the year.

At Learning Express, our sales volume is up +12% YTD, compared to this point in 2024. This is a very encouraging result in the current US toy market, where Circana reports that total US toy sales are up by +6%. I believe some of the strategies we decided to adopt earlier in the year have paid off: we have remained flexible, nimble and have jumped quickly on new opportunities. We place bigger orders for bestsellers, but otherwise we have continued to buy what we need, when we need it. We’ve also made a conscious effort to support smaller to mid-tier toy partners, who are in the most pain right now, and have featured a value section highlighting $15 and under products that offer strong value to the customer, meeting the needs of all our shoppers, whatever their budget.

Looking at some other stats, our inventory cost has increased by +5% versus 2024. Our average selling price is now $10.67, which is a slight drop from that of 2024, which was $10.85. However, our average transaction value is $44.86 versus $44.04 in 2024.

In examining what is driving this growth, certain lines stand out, and you can find the top ten sales items below:

• Asian blind boxes (various)

• Pokémon cards

• Wigglitz 3D printed minis (ZB Designs)

• Nice Cubes (Schylling)

• Hexbots (Spin Master)

• Clickee fidgets (various vendors)

• Air Toobz (Fat Brain/Tomy)

• Zipstring

• Sticki Rolls (Sky Castle Toys)

• Dr. Squish Squishy Maker (Boti)

I’ve also looked at trending toy categories, to see if any changes there are having an impact on sales. The Arts & Crafts category has noticeably improved, while Compounds and Fashion sales have weakened. Here is our top ten list of categories, with their percentage share of sales:

• Pick me up/joy items (including blind boxes) 20.9%

• Plush 12.8%

• Arts/Crafts 8.8%

• Construction   8.6%

• Pre-School 8.4%

• Fashion/Tween   8.4%

• Compounds 7.3%

• Active toys 5.1%

• Games 4.4%

• Books 3.2%

Our top ten performing vendors make up 43% of total sales:

• ACD Distribution (Pokémon)

• Lego

• Blind Box (various)

• Schylling, Inc.

• Douglas Cuddle Toys

• Spin Master

• US Toys (pick me up)

• Epoch (Calico Critters)

• Dope Slimes

• Wigglitz (ZB Designs)

The first half of 2025 has been a real surprise. I did not expect the explosion in sales after April and the Easter season. Growth in May was stronger than in the first fourth months of the year, with June and July significantly ahead. At the time of writing (12 days into August), we are experiencing even stronger growth, despite talk of inflation creeping back and with tariff discussions still ongoing. I have publicly raised my full year forecast to +10%, up from the mid-single digits we forecast at the beginning of the year.

I would be interested to find out whether these trends are being replicated in different parts of the European toy market. Kids are kids everywhere and with the responsibility of toy retailers to bring joy as well as teach them about the complexities of this world, it’s important that we get it right – whatever external factors are affecting us.