Circana - Insight

Licensed toys in pole position

Licensed Toys are having a very strong year, outperforming the rest of the toy market - a trend which is expected to continue. Melissa delves deeper into this success and looks in more detail at the power of licences.

The UK Toy market has enjoyed a strong first quarter in 2025, with value sales up +5%, the first growth in Q1 since 2021. Overall, seven out of eleven supercategories are in growth with Games and Puzzles leading the way, up an impressive +39% driven by two new Pokémon Strategic Trading Card game series. However, there is one area of the toy market that has continually outperformed the rest of the market over the last five years – licensed toys. Licensed toys has grown +9% so far this year and now account for 35% of all toy sales.

The biggest licence is Star Wars, with strong support from the Lego range. However, the second largest licence is the combined National Soccer Clubs, with Match Attax lines continuing to perform well even outside of international football tournaments. Next is Harry Potter, which has seen a strong start to 2025, up +27% in value, followed by Minecraft and Bluey. Bluey has also seen strong growth, up +26% so far this year and is now the number two property in Pre-school Toys, behind Paw Patrol. Amongst the top five, there are licences originating from a mixture of sources. Besides the traditional film and TV/streaming properties, the toy market has seen more licences coming from Video Games, Sports and even Food in recent years - as demonstrated by the success of Zuru’s Snackles range.

Some of the most successful properties mix content sourcing, so they’re no longer purely defined by one type. The recent Minecraft movie saw toy sales in the opening week of the film grow +113% versus the same week a year ago, and even before the film release, Minecraft toy sales were strong. Sonic the Hedgehog is another example of a property which now spans movies, streaming shows and video games, and has seen its toy sales grow over the last few years and continue to grow, up +56% in 2025. However, the fastest growing licence so far in 2025 is Formula 1, with the new range of Lego sets driving sales. Later this summer there will be a Formula 1 film starring Brad Pitt, which should see the licence have a strong finish to the year. The fastest growing licence last year was Lilo & Stitch, which continues to increase in 2025 as the second fastest growing property YTD March. Other growing licences include Hello Kitty and Friends, celebrating 50 years in 2025, as well Fortnite and Mr Beast. This demonstrates the broad range of sources for successful licences in toys: ranging from nostalgic characters, popular video game and online influencers as well as sports and film franchises.

Within the total market, the Action Figures & Accessories Supercategory has the largest licensed share, with licences accounting for 83% of sales in Q1 and growing +16% in value. Top licences here include Marvel Universe, Sonic the Hedgehog, Star Wars and Pokémon. Building Sets has 55% of sales coming from licences, with Star Wars and Harry Potter topping the charts. There is strong licensed growth from Vehicles, Explorative & Other and Plush Toys, with Cars the Movie and Fast & Furious driving licensed growth in Vehicles. In Plush, besides the aforementioned Snackles and Lilo & Stitch, Paddington Bear and Care Bears have seen strong growth this year.

While licensing is an important part of the UK Toy market, toys is not the only industry in which licensing is growing. As well as Toys, Circana also tracks Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and licensing has been increasing its presence in the food, drink and health and beauty aisles over the last 12 months. Overall, Chilled Diary and Desserts is the largest licensed category with licensed yoghurts particularly strong. This is followed by Bakery with licensed birthday or celebration cakes such as Spider-Man and Pokémon, and Home Baking with Cake Mixes. However, some of the fastest growing licensed categories are Vitamins and Minerals and Biscuits; both are showing strong double-digit growth in the latest 52 weeks. This expansion of licensing into the CPG category enables consumers to truly surround themselves with their passion for favourite characters, and expands to categories such as Clothing, Books, Stationery and many other areas.

We expect licensing to continue to outperform the rest of the toy market in 2025, gaining share with plenty of potential for both new and returning content driven lines. This ranges from the hotly anticipated final series of Stranger Things on Netflix to summer blockbuster movies - from action films like Jurassic World, Fantastic Four and Superman to family friendly releases like Lilo & Stitch and How To Train Your Dragon. Add in Sports and Influencer licences, and it’s clear that licensing will continue to be an important part of the UK Toy and CPG markets.

Item Progression:

The Lego Group’s Technic Mercedes-Benz Amg F1 W14 E Performance line jumped up the rankings in the last month with the start of the Formula One season in mid-March. This line has a high Average Selling Price of £152.18. Price points over £100 have grown +5% in value YTD March 2025, with Trampolines performing well in the last month, as well as Lego Harry Potter Diagon Alley, Lego Technic McLaren P1 and Lego Architecture Notre Dame de Paris Cathedral.

Fastest Growing Subclasses

The fastest growing subclass in the first quarter of 2025 was Strategic Trading Cards Games, which was heavily driven by two new series launch for Pokémon. Both the Scarlet and Violet Prismatic Evolutions series, launched in January, and Scarlet and Violet Journey Together, released late March, have driven a high increase in sales for both the Pokémon Property, currently No. 1 in the total toy market and the Strategic Trading Card Games category. However, Pokémon wasn’t the only property to grow in this subclass, with both Match Attax and Magic the Gathering growing so far this year.

Standard Building Sets was the next largest gaining subclass YTD March 2025, with Mothers’ Day helping drive sales of Lego Botanicals as well as the launch of Lego Formula One licensed products. Lego Fortnite and Lego Harry Potter have also seen strong growth in 2025. Within Action Figures Collectibles, Funko Pop! is the No. 1 property, growing +18%, with Sonic the Hedgehog at No. 2 and also growing. There is also growth from Moose Toys’ Mr Beast Lab and Magicbox‘s Piratix Adventure World properties.

Miscellaneous Toys continues to grow in 2025 with Zuru’s Mini Brands Home Capsules and Mini Brands Kawaii Assortments strong performers along with MGA Miniverse’s Hello Kitty and Friends Make It Mini Food Assortment and Harry Potter Make It Mini Potions set. Special Feature/Interactive Plush growth is driven by Zuru’s Pets Alive Mama Duck and Babies and Ty Beanies Lilo & Stitch Plush with Sound, while Robotic/Interactive Playmates grew with Robo Alive from Zuru, in addition to Bitzee and Punirunes from Spin Master. Craft Kits also grew in the first quarter of the year with Character Option’s Stikki Roll, Lego Art and Canal Toy’s So Slime DIY driving performance. The bright weather in March helped drive the Playground Equipment subclass, especially trampolines. Battling Toys grew with Beyblades from Hasbro, while Mini Vehicles saw strong growth for Hot Wheels from Mattel.