Circana - Insight

On the up and up?

As UK toy sales show an uptick of +8% in value YTD  in May 2025 compared to 2024, Emilie examines whether the positive trend experienced since the beginning of the year looks set to continue.

According to Circana’s Consumer 360 service, 38% of the UK toy market sales were generated online (including click and collect) in 2019. This peaked above 55% in 2020, at the height of the Covid restrictions when many physical stores were unable to open, and the figure went down when stores reopened. But in the last three years, the share of online sales has steadily increased again to reach 50% of the total toy market sales in the twelve months to April 25, experiencing a +4% value growth versus last year. Across Europe, the UK has the second highest share of online sales after Germany - far above the EU5 average at 41%.

The three largest supercategories sold online are Building Sets, Games/Puzzles and Infant/Toddler/Pre-school Toys, which accounted for more than half of the total online sales in the last 12 months to April 2025. Outdoor & Sports Toys and Youth Electronics also over-indexed online. Offline, Plush is the top-selling supercategory, followed by Infant/Toddler/Pre-school Toys, and Dolls. Each of these supercategories accounted for around 12-13% of total toy sales and were in decline compared to the previous year to April 25. Arts & Craft and Collectibles purchases tend to be stronger in-store, with Explorative & Other Toys, Vehicles and Action Figures also over-indexing, driven by impulse purchases and lower average selling price.

Looking deeper into the channels, Online Pure Players is the largest channel, followed by Toys Specialists. Those two channels combined generated 59% of the total toy market sales in the last 12 months. Online Pure Players, Multi-Specialists and Others (including Discounters) have been growing and gaining share at the expense of the Food channel, which experienced the deepest decline (-6%) and now accounts for 14% of the market sales, down -1.4pt versus 2023.

Focusing on the Grocers, Building Sets, Plush and Infant/Toddler/Pre-school Toys are the three largest supercategories in this channel, accounting for 40% of the total toy value sold in Grocers in YTD May 2025. Explorative and Other Toys, Plush and Vehicles are the top supercategories over-indexing the most in Grocers versus the total market: they generated 32% of Grocers value sales versus 20% in total toys. Collectibles and Licences also over-indexed in Grocers and continue to offer growth potential, driven by strong consumer demand and content.

Five out of 11 supercategories are in growth in the Grocery channel YTD compared to last year: Building Sets, Games & Puzzles, Youth Electronics, Vehicles and Art & Craft, with the the first two categories growing faster in Grocers than in the total market. Building Sets’ performance has been driven by growth from The Lego Group, especially its Botanical and new Formula 1 ranges. Games & Puzzles grew thanks to Strategic Trading Card Games, up +20%, thanks to Pokémon and World Soccer cards. Vehicles' performance can be attributed mostly to Hot Wheels and Own Labels/non-branded in Grocers. Art & Craft’s gain was driven by Own Labels reusable compounds, as well as Sticki Rolls from Character Options, Disney Lilo & Stitch items and Clementoni Idea Pen Creator lines. Those three Art & Craft ranges each have an average selling price between £4.46 and £6.86 in YTD in the Grocery Channel. Youth Electronics growth came from Electronics Pets: Zuru Pets Alive and Robo Alive ranges increased double digits, while Moose’s Little Live property added value too. Those ranges were sold at an average price of below £12 in Grocers.

The difference in pricing is clear between channels: The average selling price in the total toy market is £10.14 in YTD; in Grocers it is 45% lower, driven by the product mix. 59% of the value sales of the toy market in Grocers came from items sold under £10. It represents 85% of units, so more than 4/5 units sold in Grocers are sold under £10. Sales under £10 have increased faster in the rest of the market than in Grocers, especially through Strategic Trading Cards, Outdoor & Sport Toys and Bubble Toys, Art & Craft and Collectibles. In Grocers, £20-50 price band sales went up, mainly driven by Building Sets and Strategic Trading Card Games.

As the average selling price increase accelerated in May to +10% in total market, the value sales growth started to slow down. Let’s hope that new blockbuster movies and good weather continue to boost the toy market this summer, to carry on the positive trend experienced since the beginning of the year.

Item Progression:

With the Disney Lilo & Stitch Live Action movie released on 21st May, the property’s sales have soared to become the No. 5 gaining property YTD May. Plush accounts for more than a quarter of the property’s value sales YTD, and increased to a third in May, thanks to lines from Simba, Wow! Stuff and Ty. Lilo & Stitch jumped to the No 2 property in Plush in May, and the Stitch 25 cm Plush from Simba was the item showing the fastest ranking progression month on month in Total Toys.

Top 10 Fastest Growing Subclasses - UK Toys

Strategic Trading Card Games is the 2nd largest subclass in value sales YTD May 2025 and the top gaining, with sales up +118% versus last year. Pokémon started the year with the launch of the latest Scarlet & Violet series: Prismatic Evolutions, which drove strong growth. Magic the Gathering was up too, while the new One-Piece cards added value.

Standard Building Sets was the second highest gaining subclass, up +11%, driven by new launches such as Fortnite and Formula 1 licensed ranges. Lego Botanical also continues to expand its range and grow its sales and was a sought-after gift for Valentines’ Day and Mothers’ Day.

The sunny weather has boosted sales of Playground Equipment, which increased by +£5.3m versus last year, and also drove sales of Outdoor Toys in Q2 across Trampolines, Playsets and Water/Sand Boxes. Own label/non branded items added the most value in Playground Equipment.

Action Figures Collectibles are back in growth since Q4 last year. Funko is the main driver, while licences supported by movies, such as Minecraft or Lilo & Stitch, are doing well too. New launches, especially MrBeast Lab and Piratix Adventure World were incremental and have entered the top 15 properties in Action Figures Collectibles. We can see growth continuing from small-size collectibles, both in Action Figures and Miscellaneous Toys with growth also coming from Fuggler, Tubzz, Skibidi Toilet, Moriah Elizabeth and Hello Kitty and Friends.