NPD Insight

The weeks in October through to December are the ones which really shape the yearly trend of the UK toy market, and 2022 is no different. The last three months generally make up around 45-50% of the value of the year, and for some categories like Games this percentage can be even higher. A strong end to the year often means that the overall trend will be viewed as positive. At the time of writing, NPD has data up to December 10th and the current YTD trend is down -4% vs. 2021. If we look at the last 10 weeks (going back to the beginning of October) the trend is -3%, so this reflects a slightly better performance at the business end of the year. Recent years have seen a peak season period that is behind the trend for the first three quarters, so it looks like 2022 will see a different trading pattern. In peak season this year, external factors from the cost-of-living crisis were predicted to impact consumer spend. However, we often talk of the resilience of toys, and it looks like this is being borne out so far.

While the trend in peak season so far is -3% in value, it is flat in terms of volume. The biggest impact on this volume trend is the fact that we’ve had a winter World Cup, which has added sales of World Cup stickers during the final quarter of the year. The Non-Strategic Trading Cards/Collectible Stickers subclass has been +224% in volume for the 10-week period to Dec 10th.

To get a sense of where the market is in this peak season period, it is useful to compare it to 2019, when there was no pandemic influence. The trends vs. 2019 are -8% in value but also -15% in volume; this volume decline equates to a drop of around 9.5m units compared to 2019. We can also see differences if we look at the 10-week period by individual week. October is a good example as we had an overall month trend of +1% in value vs. the same month in 2021. However, when we look at the detail, we can see that there was only one week of growth - October week 2 - which grew by +30% and was a week that saw a high level of promotional activity. Similarly, in November, there was only one week of growth, although it wasn’t as strong this time: unfortunately, this was not enough to make the overall month positive, and it finished up down -5%. These trends seem to suggest that consumers were waiting for deals and jumping on them, with certain items proving popular.

Looking at manufacturer trends for peak season 2022, the performance of The Lego Group stands out. Its share of the market for this period is 16.8%, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, with a growth of +4% too. This performance has been driven by strong licensed sales with Star Wars, Marvel, Minecraft and Jurassic World all showing double digit growth. Lego Technic has also performed well, with a +12% value trend and lines like the Technic McLaren Formula 1 car regularly featuring in the top items lists at a high average price.

Another manufacturer which has had a strong performance this peak season is Moose Toys, which has two of the top items; Magic Mixies with Plush and the Little Live Pets Mamma Surprise have been in the top item lists in both October and November. Continuing the trend of 2022, Squishmallows from Jazwares has also continued to grow in peak season and is the No.1 growth property for the period, just ahead of World Soccer and Pokémon.

With the current trend of -3% so far in peak season, what would be a good result for the end of the year? Following the trend of October and November, we expect there to be one big week in the month. At the time of writing, it looks like week 51 will be that week: we expect to see strong growth here, as consumers leave it late to purchase gifts, and potentially move to shop in store after the effects of snow and various strikes. With Christmas falling on a Sunday, there’s a full week of shopping before the big day, and maybe even some

last-minute promotional activity enticing shoppers to spend on more gifts. If the last three weeks of the year were to finish flat vs. 2021, then the peak season trend for 2022 would end up being -2%. Last time Christmas was on a Sunday was 2016 - and week 51 ended up being +33% and added a huge +£37m to the market. I don’t think we are expecting growth on that level, but after some challenging times in 2022, we should hopefully see a strong end to the year.

The Disney Encanto licence has moved up 21 places over the past month. Sales of the licence in November are nearly £1m higher than in October, driven by growth across several subclasses. The licence is at No.30 in the rankings (YTD November 2022), so the November performance is ahead of the annual ranking for a range that has been around for the whole and one line performed particularly well - the Lego Disney Encanto Madrigals House was the top item for the licence and made up over 40% of all Disney Encanto value.

The top growth subclass in 2022 is Traditional Plush, with the Squishmallows property driving growth. Squishmallows has been the top growth property in the total UK toy market in 2022, making up over a fifth of all value in the Traditional Plush subclass. Strategic Trading Card Games is the second-best performer and another subclass where a single property is driving the growth - in this case Pokémon. This property is worth around two thirds of the Strategic Trading Cards subclass and has enjoyed consistent growth in 2022. Another subclass contributing to Collectibles growth is the third top performer, Action Figure Collectibles, adding over £6m to the UK toy market in 2022.

Special Feature Plush is the fourth top performer; Magic Mixies is the top property in this subclass, followed by CoComelon and then Little Live Pets. One of the top items for the last couple of months in this subclass has been the Little Live Pets Mama Surprise Guinea Pig Playset, which has been widely tipped to be one of the top Christmas requests in 2022.