Circana - Insight

Is the toy market sitting pretty?

Emilie examines those categories that are currently boosting the overall toy market and explores what else might contribute to sales growth as the year goes on.

The UK toy market has enjoyed a positive start to the year, with sales up +7% in value and +3% in units for the first two months of the year. The growth is not all concentrated in one area, with eight out of eleven supercategories in growth - and four of those growing by double digits compared to the same period in 2024. The top category was Games & Puzzles thanks to Strategic Trading Card Games, and especially Pokémon, with the latest series, Scarlet & Violet Prismatic Evolutions, launching in January.

Even if Christmas is still the most important time of the year in the toy industry, the opportunity to tap into other seasonal occasions across the year can bring added value to the market. Valentines’ Day is one of those occasions; and this year toy items with a Valentines’ Day theme have generated just under £2m in YTD February. This is three times more than in 2024 in value, and four times more in units. Lego Botanical Flowers performed well again this year, with the property being the No. 2 gaining versus a year ago. Plush was a classic winner and we have seen specific Valentines Plush items perform well, such as those in the Fuggler range. Action Figures Collectibles grew, thanks to Funko, and even new Adult Games were launched for the occasion, adding over £100k of sales, all tapping into the Kidult sector.

Although Kidults are spending more on toys, for both male and female recipients, the overall spend on toys for total Girls/Women has been in decline for the last four years. According to Circana Consumer 360 data, spend on Girls has reduced by -3% in 2024 versus 2023 and -12% versus 2020, representing a decline of around £850m. To understand in more detail where the decline has come from, our Sentiment Survey in January asked if shoppers who have spent less on toys for girls are spending more on other categories instead. The top two categories where they said they spent more were Clothing/Footwear/ Accessories and Beauty. Beauty was significantly higher in the UK compared to Europe, with 52% of respondents saying they spent more on Beauty for a Girl in the UK versus. 40% in EU5. This figure reached 67% for Girls 10-12 years old, highlighting the trend for younger girls asking for beauty products.

The beauty industry has arguably benefited from this trend: Prestige Make Up was up +11% in value, with strong growth in certain subclasses more likely to appeal to younger consumers. For instance, Prestige Lipstick sales were up +2%, whilst All Other Lip Make up, which includes coloured Lip Butter/Lip Balm/Lip Glow, jumped +72% in 2024 vs prior year.

The toy industry is already offering a few beauty items, such as MGA Yummiland, which is the No. 2 bestselling item in Playset Dolls Collectibles in YTD February 2025 in value sales. Moose has announced the launch of new Gui Gui slime, even using beauty packaging to attract girls keen to follow this trend. Collaborations can expand beyond toy products themselves: a few months ago, it was announced that Moose Toys and e.l.f. Cosmetics had teamed up to launch a Roblox campaign featuring the new XOX Kweenie pop art collectibles; just one example of product placement and collaboration designed to reach out to girls and bring them back to the toy aisle. Properties such as Wicked have also developed ranges with well-known beauty brands. Could licensors help to set up collaborations between beauty and toys manufacturers to create more playful and aspirational beauty-oriented toy ranges specifically designed for younger skin? Colourful style K-Beauty or Kawai style Asian beauty echoes the toy industry’s use of colourful packaging, collectability and playful themes.

2025 should also be a strong year for licences, with a strong line up of movies ahead, including Superman, Jurassic World, Lilo & Stitch, Wicked, Gabby’s Dollhouse and How to Train Your Dragon. With some strong female characters, let’s hope they will give a boost to the industry this year and potentially bring back some girls’ spend to the UK toy market.

Item Progression:

The Lego Group’s Botanicals range enjoyed strong growth in 2024, and this has continued into 2025, with sales up +24% and the property currently the number two best-selling property across the total toy market YTD February 2025. Lotus Flowers has leapt from 827 rank in January to No. 28 in February. It wasn’t the only Botanicals line to blossom, with the Bouquet of Roses the No.1 item in the UK for February, up from 41 rank in January, driven by Valentines’ Day sales. Overall, 5 out of the top 10 best-selling items for February were from the Lego Botanical range, showing how strong the appeal of special occasions and toys can be – especially when appealing to older, female demographics.

Fastest Growing Properties:

While it’s still early in 2025, the positive sales for the first two months of the year is an encouraging sign and this filters through to the number of top gaining properties. Given the huge success of the new Strategic Trading Card series Scarlet & Violet Prismatic Evolutions launched in January, it’s no surprise that Pokémon is both the top gaining property so far in 2025, but also the number one property overall. Lego Botanicals is the No. 2 gaining property, with new items such as the Mini Orchid and Plum Blossom incremental to existing lines such as the Bouquet of Roses and Tiny Plants. Harry Potter/Fantastic Beasts is the third fastest growing property so far in 2025, with Lego accounting for 94% of the growth and the new Diagon Alley Wizarding Shops the top selling HP item. Outside of Lego, the Miniverse Harry Potter Make It Mini Potions Assortment and Funko Bitty Pops are also contributing to growth.

Continuing from strong 2024 growth, Lilo and Stitch is the fifth fastest growing property in 2025, with plush the largest supercategory for the property driven by a mixture of Toy of the Year, Stitch Puppetronic by RealFX from Wow Stuff, Ty Beanies and Simba’s plush range. There is also growth for Stitch in Building Sets and Action Figures Collectibles with Just Play’s Mini Collectibles strong performance.

Lego Fortnite is the top new launch in 2025 so far with a compact range released. Dungeons & Dragons growth has also been driven by Lego, with the new Minifigures range driving growth YTD 2025. Hot Wheels is up +22% so far this year and while the singles continue to be the top seller, HW Monster Truck lines have also seen strong growth. Sonic the Hedgehog has also seen consistent growth over the last three years, continuing into 2025.