Retail Gap Analysis

Economic Diversity Enhancement Plan Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis October 2018

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Table of Contents PREFACE....................................................................................................................... i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................. ii 1.0 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................. 1

1.1 Scope of Study & Project Background .................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Report Structure.................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Sources of Information.......................................................................................................................... 1

2.0 LOCATION CONTEXT............................................................................................ 2

2.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 2 2.2 Local & Regional Context...................................................................................................................... 2 2.3 Transportation Context......................................................................................................................... 2

3.0 RETAIL TRADE AREA............................................................................................ 7

3.1 Introduction.......................................................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Population Projections.......................................................................................................................... 9 3.3 Age Profile........................................................................................................................................... 13 3.4 Household Income Profile................................................................................................................... 13 3.5 Retail Spending Profile........................................................................................................................ 15

4.0 RETAIL SUPPLY.................................................................................................. 19

4.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................ 19 4.2 Vegreville Retail Market...................................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Retail Vacancy..................................................................................................................................... 19 4.4 Retail Inventory by Category................................................................................................................24 4.5 Retail Inventory by NAICS....................................................................................................................24 4.6 Retail Space Per Capita.........................................................................................................................26

5.0 CONSUMER SURVEY.......................................................................................... 30

5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................ 30 5.2 Consumer Survey Results.................................................................................................................... 30 5.3 Summary............................................................................................................................................. 36

6.0 RETAIL DEMAND............................................................................................... 38

6.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................ 38 6.2 Retail Floor Space Demand................................................................................................................. 38 6.3 Developing Successful Retail............................................................................................................... 43 6.4 Target Tenant Prospects...................................................................................................................... 44 6.5 Summary..............................................................................................................................................47

APPENDICES

A B

Detailed Retail Inventory......................................................................................................................49 Consumer Survey Leakage Questionnaire...........................................................................................55

Retail Gap Analysis

Preface

Key Planning Strategies (“Key Planning”) was commissioned by MDB Insight as part of the Town of Vegreville Economic Diversity Enhancement Plan to conduct a Retail Gap Analysis for the Town of Vegreville (“Vegreville”).

Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limited to: the Town of Vegreville, Commercial Real Estate/Property Management Firms, International Council of Shopping Centers, and Key Planning.

The study was carried out over the period of August - October 2018.

Key Planning does not warrant that any estimates contained within the study will be achieved over the identified time horizons, but that they have been prepared conscientiously and objectively on the basis of information obtained during the course of this study.

The objective of this study is to thoroughly document Vegreville’s current retail inventory.

The next step estimates the realistic retail Trade Area area for which Vegreville serves and the retail expenditure profile across various retail categories/store types as an indication of retail inflow/outflow and opportunities therein that Vegreville could potentially pursue. The end result is to fill gaps and bolster the local retail market by retaining or attracting greater market share of resident and passing motorists’ spending in the community.

Retail spending (i.e. demand), Vegreville’s retail inventory, and its corresponding productivity (i.e. supply) was estimated to identify gaps in Vegreville’s current provision of shops and services.

This document is intended to assist Vegreville in promoting the community, working with developers and investors, as well as attracting new retail or business opportunities. It further aims to retain existing retailers as part of a wider Economic Enhancement Plan for business retention and attraction and succession planning.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Also, any tenant references made in the report are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as guarantees that they will locate in Vegreville but rather that they could represent compatible “target” category types to pursue either for local businesses or external regional businesses over the next decade.

This analysis was conducted by Key Planning as an objective and independent party, and is not an agent of the Town or MDB Insight.

As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor the material submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of any printed material, or used in offerings or representations in connection with the sale of securities or participation interest to the public, without the expressed permission of the Town of Vegreville, MDB Insight or Key Planning Strategies.

Key Planning Strategies 2018

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Executive Summary

LOCATION CONTEXT SUMMARY The Town of Vegreville is located approximately 1 hour drive time east of the City of Edmonton along Hwy 16 and represents a key centrality within a region for which drive times of 15, 30 and 45-minutes emanate. These drive times are critical to supporting a growing quasi-regional retail market, particularly for communities to the north, northeast, south, and southeast.

From a retail commercial perspective, the Town encourages commercial development along the majority of Highway 16A/50th Ave. Vacant parcels or buildings fronting Hwy 16A, particularly at the east and west sides of town represent strategic infill opportunities for higher profile tenants to whom driving regional motorists are a target consumer and where current traffic counts total between 8,000 and 20,000 total vehicles per day.

RETAIL TRADE AREA SUMMARY The retail trade area for Vegreville must target the communities considered more remote for whom Vegreville is likely to be more convenient for dayto-day or infrequent shopping when compared to Sherwood Park or Fort Saskatchewan. It will be difficult for Vegreville’s to penetrate the western communities of its trade area, notably Lamont and Ryley to a large degree because of the competitive appeal of larger retail areas and drive time accessibility.

Trade Area Population Summary The resulting Trade Area for Vegreville comprises just under 40,000 full-time residents (38,929).

This population is forecast to reach 42,000 by 2022 and surpass 45,000 by 2027.

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It is realistic for Vegreville to focus on its existing trade area, but also harness its strategic location along Hwy 16A to serve as an ideal pit stop for passing motorists and other target users drawn to the industrial components in Vegreville and elsewhere in the surrounding counties/ communities.

Efforts should be focused on trying to increase the existing market penetration for sustaining existing business vitality. By increasing the market share of existing trade area spending, businesses will rally behind a stronger market penetration for business viability and stability.

Trade Area Household Income Summary The current average Household Income in the Retail Trade Area reveals an average Household Income in 2017 estimated at just over $98,979.

Of this, approximately 27% of households have an average Household Income of more than $100,000.

The overall income profile represents overall economic health and stability for retail opportunities.

Trade Area Retail Spending Summary The Total Trade Area is estimated at $590 Million (2018 year-end estimate). When excluding Health Care/Medical Services and Automotive, this figure comes in at $457 million.

The Town of Vegreville’s share of the Total Trade Area spending is estimated at 15%, which illustrates the regional draw that is supportive of the town’s current retail inventory and hierarchy.

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Executive Summary

The Top 5 retail spending categories for Vegreville’s Total Trade Area are: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Grocery & Specialty Foods - $176.6 Million Auto/RV/Motorsport - $122.4 Million Restaurants (Full & Quick Service) - $55.6 Million Clothing, Apparel & Footwear - 34.9 Million Home Furnishings & Appliances - $19.9 Million

RETAIL SUPPLY SUMMARY The Town of Vegreville has an estimated street front floor space of approximately 708,931 sf.

This floor space is comprised of business types that range from Grocery to Home Improvement, Restaurants, Personal Services such as Salons as well as Professional and Medical Services. When excluding businesses that are not retail related but do occupy retail street front spaces, the total inventory is an estimated 534,981sf.

The current overall vacancy rate is estimated at 23% which is high, but does include spaces that are likely to not be considered as appropriate for future retail. The current vacancies within Vegreville are not isolated to one particular area, but the impact of the newest retail node in the west anchored by WalMart and Canadian Tire has had an impact on other areas of the town.

The Top 5 retail categories in terms of overall retail floor space in Vegreville are: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Grocery & Specialty Foods Auto/RV/Motorsports Home Improvement & Garden Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Clothing & Apparel

89,040 sf 55,200 sf 51,488 sf 42,150 sf 38,098 sf

The per capita retail space figure is estimated at 13.7 sf/capita. This illustrates that the inventory for Vegreville is not just a local market, nor is it a 50,000 person trade area. The reality for Vegreville is that it is a regional hub, but one that better serves a 30,000 to 40,000 person trade area.

The Town of Vegreville should be striving for a target retail space per capita ratio of 25 sf/capita.

As an example, a trade area of 35,000 residents supporting a per capita ratio of 25 sf would result in a total supportable inventory of 875,000 sf.

The retail inventory in terms of floor space and vacancies suggest that demand may not be robust, but that Vegreville should be very targeted in its approach to obtaining the most compatible retail businesses to fit within the community’s existing vacant spaces or land fronting or visible to/from Hwy 16A.

Despite the high vacancies, retail opportunities Est. Area General Retail Category exist for tenants in spaces that are move-in-ready (SF) RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT and conducive to basic tenant improvements.

TOTAL 708,931 This is particularly the case at the Galleria Shoppes (anchored by The Brick and Dollarama), TOTAL Retail Only 534,981 which is also located at the intersection of the community with the highest AADT traffic counts.

VACANT 121,181 The available space at the Galleria Shoppes % VACANT 22.7% total 27,731 sf or 95% of the Midtown vacancy.

This node should be a marketing priority and Retail Space Per Capita 90.2 (against TOWN Population) represent the best opportunity to attract new Retail Space Per Capita retail to the community.

13.7 (against Trade Area Population)

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

NAICS Sector #

sq. ft.

sq.ft./capita sq.ft./capita

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Executive Summary RETAIL TRADE AREA

2023 TARGETED RETAIL MARKET SHARE AND RESULTING DEMAND FORECAST 2023 Miscellaneous Spending Inflow Factor 1 5% 10% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 5% 50% 30% 0% 0% 5% 5%

Merchandise Category

2023 Target Market Share of Retail Spending

Grocery & Specialty Foods Pharmacy Alcohol & Tobacco Personal Services Health Care & Medical Services Clothing & Apparel Footwear Jewelry & Accessories Health & Beauty Home Furnishings & Appliances Home & Personal Electronics Home Improvement & Gardening Books & Media Sporting Goods Toys & Hobbies Specialty Retail Quick Service F&B Full Service Restaurants Arts & Entertainment Fitness & Leisure Auto Parts & Accessories Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

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25% 24% 47% 30% 40% 38% 17% 43% 17% 39% 11% 71% 1% 15% 38% 65% 16% 34% 5% 29% 46% 18%

28%

2023 Estimated Retail Sales $ (Inflow) 2 $42,205,402 $2,559,627 $8,548,679 $4,846,701 $4,965,202 $9,029,202 $1,395,115 $1,909,292 $1,574,170 $7,049,876 $1,921,770 $9,762,227 $190,929 $2,026,371 $1,382,435 $10,884,955 $4,853,811 $13,272,139 $639,907 $1,549,996 $4,034,375 $20,932,059

$155,534,241

2023 Potential Retail Inventory 105,514 6,399 21,372 24,234 24,826 45,146 6,976 5,967 6,559 35,249 8,735 61,014 1,193 10,132 6,912 45,354 15,168 41,475 5,333 12,917 20,172 65,413

576,058

2023 Potential Net Future Retail Floorspace Demand 16,474 999 3,337 3,784 3,876 7,049 1,089 932 1,024 5,503 1,364 9,526 186 1,582 1,079 7,081 2,368 6,475 833 2,017 3,149 10,213

89,938

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Executive Summary

CONSUMER SURVEY SUMMARY

Survey respondents exhibit a relatively high overall retention of retail spending for most categories across the board. In fact, the recent introduction of WalMart and Canadian Tire has likely been a catalyst to greater retention of local resident spending, where upwards of 50% of respondent spending on a category like Clothing, Apparel and Footwear is inside the Town.

Similarly, the addition of The Brick likely has been a big factor in the approximate 62% of retained spending on Home Furnishings and Appliances.

The overall estimate for sales retention in the Town by Survey Respondents is estimated at 73%.

Since the survey only examined local resident spending patterns it is important to note that the true success of Vegreville will come from its wider supporting trade area, which is the foundation and justification for the current retail inventory and future demand.

Estimates of sales inflow from the surrounding trade area when factoring out the current local resident retained spending suggests less than a 15% market share of inflow dollars from elsewhere in the identified retail trade area. This lower market share is in fact where the greatest opportunity arises - to better penetrate the existing trade area.

RETAIL DEMAND SUMMARY The analysis of market shares further supports finding that specific merchandise categories could boost their market share to provide sufficient demand to warrant additional businesses in the community by 2023.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

This opportunity is summarized as follows: Grocery & Convenience new demand 16,500 sf market share increase from 22% to 25%

Restaurant F&B new demand

6,500 sf

market share increase from 31% to 34%

Clothing & Apparel new demand

7,000 sf

market share increase from 35% to 38%

While these numbers on the surface may seem low, they are in step with the size of the trade area as well as in step with the likely demand from potential businesses with the understanding that growth will need to occur by better penetrating the existing trade area.

If Vegreville were to increase its current market share penetration by only 4% from an estimated 24% to 28%, then the total demand by the year 2023, without new population growth could be approximately 90,000 sf.

Part of the overall demand in Vegreville is not premised on providing new retail space since the current vacancy is high and there are some wellpositioned assets available for tenancies.

The reality is that this space may only result in a few specifically targeted new businesses, but rather the goal should also be to ensure that existing businesses can increase their market share and resulting sales and profitability rather than adding new space to further dilute what exists today.

Retail growth need not always be about adding new retail, but creating an environment for stronger retention and performance of existing businesses, particularly in a community like Vegreville where larger competitive forces exist within a 1-hour drive time.

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1

Introduction

1.1

SCOPE OF STUDY & PROJECT BACKGROUND

Key Planning Strategies (Key Planning) was commissioned by the Town of Vegreville (Town or Vegreville) in partnership with MDB Insight (MDB) to conduct a Retail Gap Analysis for the Town as a background compendium to the Town’s Economic Diversity Enhancement Plan. The objective of this study is to thoroughly document Vegreville’s current retail inventory and define the realistic retail Trade Area area for which it serves. The end result is to fill gaps and bolster the retail market it serves by retaining or attracting greater market share of resident and passing motorists’ spending in the community and identifying gaps.

1.2

REPORT STRUCTURE

Section 4 - Retail Supply: Assesses the location and characteristics of Vegreville’s current nodes of retail activity (“supply”), including developing or future planned retail sites. Fieldwork assessments included identifying and quantifying the entire Vegreville retail inventory by retailer, merchandise category and NAICS industry classification.

Section 5 – Consumer Survey: Undertake a telephone survey with 150 residents of the Town of Vegreville to ascertain their retail spending and shopping preferences.

Section 6 – Retail Demand: Quantifies the Trade Area spending and sales productivities, resulting in “demand” associated with each retail category over the next 5 years for Vegreville. Demand estimates are then applied against supply to estimate the magnitude of inflow and outflow of retail on a category-bycategory basis.

Key Planning conducted on-the-ground research in September 2018 to gain a firm understanding of existing and future retail prospects in Vegreville.

The purpose of this research was to establish a solid foundation and baseline for determining the depth of retail opportunity, associated gaps in the market provision of shops and services, and to determine what type of retail could fill these gaps.

To respond to the work program process, the document is presented in the following sections:

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

Section 1 - Introduction: Introduces the study process and structure.

The following primary sources of information were used in this Retail Gap Analysis:

Section 2 - Location Context: Lays out the important regional and local context of the Town of Vegreville in terms of geographic location, regional access and traffic counts.

Section 3 - Retail Trade Area Profile: Identifies and defines the Town as well as its Primary Retail Trade Area, and documents the population and expenditure profiles, against which estimates of current and future floor space demand can be quantified and estimated.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

1.3

During the course of this study, a number of resources were used to quantify retail market supply and demand conditions largely comprising primary and secondary research.

• Alberta Ministry of Transportation, Highways 1 to 986 Traffic Volume History 2018

• Key Planning Strategies Detailed Retail Inventory Fieldwork, September 2018.

• Manifold Data Mining Inc., Demographics & Spending Data, 2017/2018

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Location Context

2.1

INTRODUCTION Location factors are an essential foundation to retail success, and an understanding of these factors can help create the necessary conditions for attracting and retaining retail businesses in a community. This section identifies the Town of Vegreville’s regional and local characteristics as they relate to the attraction and retention of retail businesses and merchandise categories.

2.2

LOCAL & REGIONAL CONTEXT The Town of Vegreville is located approximately 1 hour drive time east of the City of Edmonton along Hwy 16.

Referring to Figure 2.1, Vegreville represents a key centrality within a region for which drive times of 15, 30 and 45-minutes emanate. These drive times are critical to supporting a growing quasi-regional retail market, particularly for communities to the north, northeast, south, and southeast.

From a retail commercial perspective, the Town encourages commercial development along the majority of Highway 16A/50th Ave. Section 4.0 will document the detailed retail composition within the community. In addition to new retail lands being made available for commercial development at the west and east ends of the community, the Town has an important centrally located downtown core at 50th Ave and 50th St. While retail nodes on the periphery provide branded retail opportunities, the downtown provides a focal point for local shops as well as personal and professional services.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

In general, Vegreville plays a key role along the regional highway corridor as a pit-stop between the communities of Vermilion to the east and Sherwood Park/Edmonton to the west.

2.3

TRANSPORTATION CONTEXT One of the most significant aspects to successful commercial development relates to patterns of transportation. The ability to be accessible as well as visible to high volumes of traffic are among the most influential considerations for retail businesses.

For secondary market such as Vegreville, a retail location relative to strong and accessible transportation patterns remains an important component. This may be slightly less essential for a local independent business, but nonetheless is important when a smaller community like Vegreville strives to position itself within a regional context.

However, it is paramount for some of the more recognized brand that it have access to as much customer base as necessary, largely because the cost overhead of either acquiring a Franchise License or operating as a corporate entity has a bottom line that must be adhered to.

The Alberta Ministry of Transportation provides detailed traffic counts on major highways and junction points. The most recent 2017 data documented in the form of Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) from this Provincial source is shown in Figure 2.2 and as follows:

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Figure 2.1

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE REGIONAL DRIVE TIMES

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Figure 2.2

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE LOCAL AADT TRAFFIC COUNTS

(Source: Alberta Transportation 2017)

2017 AADT average mode Passenger Vehicles 95.4% Recreational Vehicles 0.6% Bus 0.6% Single Unit Truck 2.0% Tractor Trailer Truck 1.7%

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2 1) Hwy 16A at 67th St (estimates based on preliminary 2018 new counts) North on 67th = 300 South on 67th = 2,500 West on Hwy 16A = 2,000 East on Hwy 16A = 3,500 This is the location of the newest retail node in the community, anchored by WalMart and Canadian Tire. In total, there are an estimated 8.000 vehicles per day that move through this newest intersection in the community.

2) Hwy 16A at Hwy 857 (60th St)

North on Hwy 857 = 4,010 South on 60th St = 3,120 West on Hwy 16A = 8,470 East on Hwy 16A = 6,380

This intersection benefits from the highest traffic counts, where an average daily total of over 20,000 vehicles pass. This is illustrative of the regional traffic that comes to the community, well beyond its current town population.

3) 50th Ave (Hwy 16A) at 50th St

North on 50th St = 2,730 South on 50th St = 2,420 West on 50th Ave (Hwy 16A) = 7,060 East on 50th Ave (Hwy 16A) = 6,610

For local businesses the current traffic volume accessing the downtown area and core shopping and services district is relatively convenient and healthy in Vegreville, where total traffic counts at the central community locale at the intersection of 50th Ave and 50th St are over 15,000 per day.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

4) Hwy 16A at 47th St)

North on 47th St = 1,870 South on 47th St = 1,390 West on Hwy 16A = 5,480 East on Hwy 16A = 3,580

The traffic counts at this node are more indicative of a local serving customer base, whereas the east nodes are more indicative of accommodating a regional base.

Traffic counts are important considerations for retailers and in particular branded or chain retailers. However it will be very important to other higher profile tenants and/or developers to have high visibility to/from passing motorist traffic along Hwy 16A as they pass through Vegreville Lower speed limits along Hwy 16A/50th Ave through the centre of town are essential to enabling strong visibility.

Vacant parcels or buildings fronting Hwy 16A, particularly at the east and west sides of town may represent strategic infill opportunities for higher profile tenants to whom driving regional motorists are a target consumer. This is most likely to be favourable at either intersections 1 or 2 in Figure 2.2.

It may be challenged to further tap into the communities to the west, northwest and southwest given the comparable drive times to communities such as Fort Saskatchewan, Sherwood Park and Camrose, which have larger retail offerings. However, Vegreville is well positioned to serve as a growing quasi-regional market serving the many smaller, outlying secondary communities to the north, northeast, east and southeast.

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Photo courtesy of Key Planning Strategies

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3

Retail Trade Area

3.1

INTRODUCTION

In order to create a framework for evaluating retail demand and subsequent gaps in the provision of shops and services, it is necessary to define and identify the Trade Area from which Vegreville’s retail sales are most frequently and likely to be sourced and generated.

The Trade Area recognizes drive times, demographics, spending attributes and competition, which collectively portray the market to prospective tenants, developers and investors.

Identifying the Trade Area is important for understanding the total market potential available to current and future retailers. The local and regional residential base has particular demographic and spending habits that provide insight as to the type of compatible retail tenants, the amount of retail floor space supportable in the market, and the current inflow or outflow of retail sales, and for which categories such inflow or outflow exists.

As a first step, a Trade Area was delineated to identify the geographic region from which regular patronage could be expected, based on a series of boundary determinants.

Retail Trade Area Determinants i. Transportation networks, including streets and highways, which affect access, drive times (refer to Figure 2.2), commuting and employment distribution patterns; ii. Major infrastructure projects both planned or under development which could affect future travel patterns; iii. Overall community development vision, including an understanding of key nodes’ characteristics; iv. Local and regional competitive environment, present and future; v. Proposed generative uses (retail, cultural, civic, etc.) and their relationship within the wider market; vi. Significant natural and man-made barriers (e.g. water features, highways and industrial areas); vii. De facto barriers resulting from notable socioeconomic differentiation; viii. Patterns of existing and future residential and commercial development; and

Major considerations in defining a Retail Trade Area were applied to the Town of Vegreville, as the retail centrality to determine its most realistic Trade Area, as well as to help sensitize potential market share inputs of corresponding Trade Area retail spending. A further layer to the Trade Area was undertaken by utilizing a Consumer Survey as documented in Section 5) Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

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Figure 3.1

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE RETAIL TRADE AREA

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3 For this particular study, the Retail Trade Area shown in Figure 3.1 utilized a combination of drive times and competitive forces, namely Sherwood Park, Edmonton, Fort Saskatchewan an, Camrose and Vermilion). Consequently the trade area is skewed in a north-northeast orientation, to include smaller outlying communities like St Paul, Saddle Lake, Two Hills, Innisfree, Viking, Ryley and Lamont.

Given that the City of Edmonton is within a 60 minute drive time to the east as is Fort Saskatchewan, the retail trade area for Vegreville must therefore target the communities more remote for whom Vegreville is likely to be more convenient for day-to-day or infrequent shopping.

It will be difficult for Vegreville’s to penetrate the western communities of its trade area to a large degree because of the draw of larger retail areas and drive time accessibility.

The resulting Trade Area for Vegreville comprises a singular trade area, rather than having multiple trade areas as would be common for a larger market. The rationale behind this is influenced by the fact that Vegreville is located at overlap of two larger trade areas (Sherwood Park and Vermilion), which limits the extent of Vegreville’s resident trade area, though it does not discount the nature of motorists traveling along Hwy 16/Hwy 16A. For Vegreville, drive times are the single biggest factor in the determination of its retail trading region.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

3.2

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Using data sources that include the most recent Statistics Canada Census release as well as Manifold Data Mining Inc. (2017), population estimates and growth forecasts were tabulated for each of the identified Trade Areas.

Vegreville’s most recent census data from the February 2017 Statistics Canada release revealed a population of 5,708 in 2016, which is almost the same as it was in the 2011 Census. Similarly, other surrounding communities have also exhibited slow or little growth.

Utilizing a trade area approach as shown in Figure 3.1 and documented in Tables 3.1 to 3.4 provides a more accurate depiction of the Total Trade Area for Vegreville’s retail environment rather than being solely dependent upon the smaller localized population base.

To that end, Tables 3.1 & 3.2 provide a breakdown of the Trade Area Population and one that is much more appealing to the business community.

The Total Trade Area population is estimated for year end 2017 to be almost 39,000 (38,929). This population is forecast to reach 42,000 by 2022 and surpass 45,000 by 2027.

It is realistic for Vegreville to focus on its existing trade area, but also harness its strategic location along Hwy 16A to serve as an ideal pit stop for passing motorists and other target users drawn to the industrial components in Vegreville and elsewhere in the surrounding counties/ communities.

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Table 3.1

TRADE AREA DEMOGRAPHIC SUMMARY

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies) Benchmark Edmonton (CMA/CA,AB)

Attribute SUMMARY Total population Total number of private households Average number of persons in private households POPULATION AGE Percent: population age 0-14 Percent: population age 15-24 Percent: population age 25-34 Percent: population age 35-44 Percent: population age 45-54 Percent: population age 55-64 Percent: population age 65+ DWELLING Total number of occupied private dwellings Average dwelling value $ Percent: home owners Percent: home tenants Percent: band housing EDUCATION Total population aged 15 years and over by highest certificate, diploma or degree No certificate, diploma or degree High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma University certificate or diploma below bachelor level University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor level or above Bachelor degree University certificate, diploma or degree above bachelor level

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value

percent

1,410,520 533,282 2.60 257,406 159,882 214,427 209,942 195,554 184,454 188,854

Vegreville Primary Trade Area

(including Town of Vegreville) value percent index 38,929 14,783 2.46

Town of Vegreville (CSD,AB)

value

percent

index

95

5,934 2,523 2.29

15.69% 12.29% 10.53% 10.50% 12.51% 14.52% 23.97%

86 108 69 71 90 111 179

927 717 647 672 813 804 1,355

15.62% 12.09% 10.90% 11.32% 13.69% 13.54% 22.83%

86 107 72 76 99 104 171

2,523 $331,200 1,742 781 0

69.04% 30.96% 0.00%

63 95 113 0

5,007 1,324 1,394 2,290 634 923 160 574 510 64

26.44% 27.83% 45.73% 12.66% 18.43% 3.19% 11.46% 10.18% 1.28%

145 107 82 118 98 71 53 69 18

18.25% 11.34% 15.20% 14.88% 13.86% 13.08% 13.39%

6,107 4,784 4,100 4,087 4,869 5,652 9,329

533,282 $521,634 386,421 145,815 1,045

72.46% 27.34% 0.20%

14,783 $289,957 11,879 2,774 130

80.35% 18.77% 0.88%

56 111 69 440

1,153,120 210,098 300,214 642,817 124,191 215,979 52,052 250,584 169,900 80,684

18.22% 26.04% 55.75% 10.77% 18.73% 4.51% 21.73% 14.73% 7.00%

32,822 9,014 8,846 14,962 4,943 5,735 982 3,302 2,607 696

27.46% 26.95% 45.59% 15.06% 17.47% 2.99% 10.06% 7.94% 2.12%

151 103 82 140 93 66 46 54 30

88

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Table 3.2

3

TRADE AREA POPULATION PROJECTIONS SUMMARY 2011 TO 2027

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies) Attribute PROJECTIONS Annual population growth in the period: 2017 to 2022 Annual household growth in the period: 2017 to 2022 Annual population growth in the period: 2022 to 2027 Annual household growth in the period: 2022 to 2027 POPULATION GROWTH 2017 Total population 2022 Total population 2027 Total population HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2017 Total number of households 2022 Total number of households 2027 Total number of households

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Benchmark Edmonton (CMA/CA,AB)

value

percent

Vegreville Primary Trade Area

(including Town of Vegreville) value percent index

2.56% 2.08% 2.53% 2.06%

1.48% 0.94% 1.66% 1.11%

Town of Vegreville (CSD,AB)

value

percent

58 45 66 54

-0.02% -0.01% -0.01% -0.03%

1,410,520 1,604,500 1,822,070

38,929 42,003 45,692

5,934 5,932 5,929

533,282 592,456 657,608

14,783 15,522 16,422

2,523 2,522 2,518

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index -1 0 0 -1

Table 3.3

TRADE AREA POPULATION AGE BREAKDOWN

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies) Benchmark Edmonton (CMA/CA,AB)

Attribute SEX AND AGE GROUP Total population by sex and age groups 0-4 05-09 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 4 0-4 4 4 5-4 9 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Median age of total population Average age of total population

value

1,410,520 86,733 90,668 80,005 76,196 83,686 100,302 114,125 110,486 99,456 95,817 99,738 99,413 85,040 65,251 45,955 31,187 22,582 23,880 37.40 38.00

percent 6.15% 6.43% 5.67% 5.40% 5.93% 7.11% 8.09% 7.83% 7.05% 6.79% 7.07% 7.05% 6.03% 4.63% 3.26% 2.21% 1.60% 1.69%

Vegreville Primary Trade Area

(including Town of Vegreville) value percent index 38,929 1,743 2,166 2,199 2,326 2,458 2,151 1,949 2,105 1,983 2,165 2,704 2,901 2,751 2,553 2,158 1,647 1,278 1,693 44.60 43.10

4.48% 5.56% 5.65% 5.97% 6.31% 5.53% 5.01% 5.41% 5.09% 5.56% 6.95% 7.45% 7.07% 6.56% 5.54% 4.23% 3.28% 4.35%

73 86 100 111 106 78 62 69 72 82 98 106 117 142 170 191 205 257 119 113

Town of Vegreville (CSD,AB)

value

percent

5,934 269 326 332 354 363 351 296 321 351 378 435 411 393 324 293 238 218 283 43.60 43.80

index

4.54% 5.49% 5.60% 5.97% 6.12% 5.91% 4.99% 5.41% 5.91% 6.37% 7.33% 6.92% 6.62% 5.45% 4.94% 4.01% 3.67% 4.77%

Figure 3.2

TRADE AREA POPULATION AGE BREAKDOWN

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies)

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 12

74 85 99 111 103 83 62 69 84 94 104 98 110 118 152 181 229 282 117 115

3 The Trade Area population growth dynamics for do not exhibit strong projected growth, which suggests that focus should be on diligently attracting the types of retail that would benefit the community and target the latter noted highway motorists. While the Town itself is forecast to maintain its current population, the overall trade area is forecast to grow at 1.0% to 1.5% per annum over the next decade, compared to the City of Edmonton benchmark which is a minimum of 2.0% to 2.5% over the same period.

Efforts should be focused on trying to increase the existing market penetration for sustaining existing business vitality and for ensuring proper business succession planning. By increasing market share of existing trade area spending, businesses will rally behind a stronger market penetration for business viability and stability.

As will be documented in the Demand Section, even if some small component of demand could be warranted, the alternative to demand is that individual businesses could garner higher market share resulting in greater sales and thus business viability, rather than simply adding more space. For those very specific niche uses that could fit, Vegreville has locations well suited to accommodate them.

The strategic Hwy 16A retail frontage that exists today is strong, but could and should be further exploited as one of the key differentiators in the region capable of not just slowing motorists, but stopping them. Highway motorists are creatures of habit who tend to stay in their vehicles unless the environment is convenient for them to stop; Vegreville has this potential.

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3.3

AGE PROFILE

A summary of the current age profile, as documented in Table 3.3 and Figure 3.2 reveal a slightly older family profile. In total, the median age is 44.6 years of age, with a dominant age group of 50 to 54 years.

Table 3.2 reveals that 45% of the Trade Area’s population is currently over the age of 50 years.

This age cohort does not represent an age cohort that may not be the strongest spending segment, though they are very supportive of local businesses and local spending. They are not a particularly significant cohort when it comes to restaurant spending, but they do support grocery and have a tendency to eat at home.

3.4

HOUSEHOLD INCOME PROFILE

Household incomes are among the most direct determinants in identifying patterns of spending and potential thereof for retail, food & beverage, entertainment and services.

A summary of the current average Household Income in the Retail Trade Area as documented in Table 3.4 and Figure 3.3, reveals an average Household Income in 2017 estimated at just over $98,979 in the Vegreville Trade Area. Although incomes are lower than the City of Edmonton benchmark average of $129,671(2017), the cost of living in Vegreville is much lower and thus the disposable income levels are likely very strong.

Figure 3.3 illustrates that approximately 27% of households have an average Household Income of more than $100,000.

The overall income profile represents overall economic health and stability for retail opportunities.

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Table 3.4

TRADE AREA HOUSEHOLD INCOME BREAKDOWN

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies) Benchmark Edmonton (CMA/CA,AB)

Attribute INCOME Median houshold income $ Average household income $ Average income population age 15 and over ($) Population with income $0 - $4,999 Population with income $5,0 0 0 - $9,999 Population with income $10 ,0 0 0 - $14,999 Population with income $15,0 0 0 - $19,999 Population with income $20 ,0 0 0 - $29,999 Population with income $30 ,0 0 0 - $39,999 Population with income $40 ,0 0 0 - $49,999 Population with income $50 ,0 0 0 - $59,999 Population with income $60 ,0 0 0 - $79,999 Population with income $80 ,0 0 0 - $99,999 Population with income $10 0 ,0 0 0 - $124,999 Population with income $125,0 0 0 and over

value

$99,270 $129,671 $69,070 84,473 70,204 78,559 78,834 118,344 114,540 111,308 99,479 124,159 94,092 58,848 66,488

percent

7.68% 6.39% 7.15% 7.17% 10.77% 10.42% 10.13% 9.05% 11.29% 8.56% 5.35% 6.05%

Vegreville Primary Trade Area

(including Town of Vegreville) value percent index $78,857 $98,979 $55,642 2,698 2,301 2,474 3,496 4,447 3,800 2,975 2,442 2,558 1,986 1,133 1,124

8.58% 7.32% 7.87% 11.12% 14.15% 12.09% 9.47% 7.77% 8.14% 6.32% 3.60% 3.58%

79 76 81 112 115 110 155 131 116 93 86 72 74 67 59

Town of Vegreville value $57,527 $91,853 $53,671 232 326 391 556 771 753 474 350 380 269 158 222

(CSD,AB) percent

index

4.76% 6.69% 8.02% 11.38% 15.78% 15.43% 9.70% 7.16% 7.78% 5.51% 3.24% 4.55%

Figure 3.3

TRADE AREA HOUSEHOLD INCOME BREAKDOWN

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc and Key Planning Strategies)

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58 71 78 62 105 112 159 147 148 96 79 69 64 61 75

3 3.5

RETAIL SPENDING PROFILE

Building upon the Trade Area demographic profile analysis, an assessment was made of the Trade Area’s retail spending profile. This provides a more refined understanding of the opportunity for retail within Vegreville.

The key questions it seeks to answer are: • How much do Trade Area residents spend on Convenience retail (such as Grocery and Pharmacy), on Comparison retail1 (such as Fashion and Home Furnishings), and Leisure (Food & Beverage and Entertainment)?

• What spending patterns or trends does the Trade Area expenditure profile demonstrate?

And how is spending forecast to change over the coming years?

• What types of retail goods and services are garnering inflow of sales dollars and which categories are exhibiting outflow of sales (or leakage)?

Detailed information of retail spending within the Trade Area was collected from Manifold Data Mining Inc., a leading supplier of demographic and consumer expenditure information, using 2017 year end data. The data was compiled into groups according to where the respondent was from in order to build a spending profile for each respective Trade Area.

Each of the major three categories of spending (Convenience, Comparison and Leisure) was assessed at a detailed category-by-category level then aggregated into major categories.

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Having established the Trade Area boundary, population and demographic profile, the size of the retail market and its anticipated growth was projected using retail spending data from Manifold Data Mining.

As illustrated in Table 3.5, the Total Trade Area is estimated at $590 Million (2017 year-end estimate). When excluding Health Care/Medical Services and Automotive, this figure comes in at $457 million.

The Town of Vegreville’s share of the Total Trade Area spending is estimated at 15%, which illustrates the regional draw that is supportive of the town’s current retail inventory and hierarchy.

The overall spending profile is healthy, though opportunities are somewhat limited because of slow growth, requiring an approach that should entail stronger penetration of the existing market rather than focusing on new growth, just for growth’s sake.

Figures 3.5 and 3.6 illustrate the retail spending as summarized by the larger categorizations of Grocery & Conveniences, Comparison Merchandise (also know as Department Store Type Merchandise), Restaurants & Entertainment and Auto/RV/Motorsports Parts and Sales.

As shown in Figure 3.6 and as is more common in rural or secondary markets, the share of spending on Grocery and Conveniences (38%) is high when compared to other segments,while the spending on Restaurants & Entertainment (13%) is comparable to other more urban markets, likely because of the local Movie Theatre, which serves a valuable purpose.

Page 15

Table 3.5

TRADE AREA RETAIL SPENDING 2018

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc. & Key Planning Strategies) 2018 Year End ( estimate) Retail Spending by Merchandise Category

Town of Vegreville Aggregate Retail Spending

Grocery & Specialty Foods Pharmacy Alcohol & Tobacco Personal Services Health Care & Medical Services Clothing & Apparel Footwear Jewelry & Accessories Health & Beauty Home Furnishings & Appliances Home & Personal Electronics Home Improvement & Gardening Books & Media Sporting Goods Toys & Hobbies Specialty Retail Quick Service F&B Full Service Restaurants Arts & Entertainment Fitness & Leisure Auto Parts & Accessories Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership TOTAL CATEGORIES TOTAL (excluding Health Care & Medical

Services, Auto Parts & Accessories & Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealerships

PTA (excluding Town of Vegreville) Aggregate Retail Spending

TOTAL Trade Area Aggregate Retail Spending

$25,237,569 $2,000,739 $3,216,825 $2,406,942 $1,301,868 $3,923,265 $1,369,989 $734,193 $1,614,720 $2,992,278 $3,229,440 $1,599,582 $2,795,484 $2,318,637 $608,043 $2,472,540 $3,411,096 $5,452,203 $2,333,775 $905,757 $1,380,081 $19,283,289

$151,462,092 $9,102,376 $15,220,354 $14,312,389 $9,649,359 $22,084,352 $7,619,650 $4,166,766 $8,847,733 $16,972,337 $16,534,409 $11,637,647 $16,358,819 $12,969,987 $3,345,484 $14,727,996 $19,168,829 $27,521,333 $11,793,490 $4,911,569 $7,790,300 $103,086,416

$176,699,661 $11,103,115 $18,437,179 $16,719,331 $10,951,227 $26,007,617 $8,989,639 $4,900,959 $10,462,453 $19,964,615 $19,763,849 $13,237,229 $19,154,303 $15,288,624 $3,953,527 $17,200,536 $22,579,925 $32,973,536 $14,127,265 $5,817,326 $9,170,381 $122,369,705

$90,588,315

$509,283,689

$599,872,004

$68,623,077

$388,757,613

$457,380,690

Figure 3.4

TRADE AREA RETAIL SPENDING SUMMARY 2018

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc. & Key Planning Strategies) Town of Vegreville

Primary Trade Area EXCLUDING Town of Vegreville

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3 As a comparison, recent studies for other Albertan communities such as the City of Grande Prairie and City of Chestermere have Grocery & Conveniences spending share at 31% and 32% respectively, while the spending on Restaurants & Entertainment are at 10% and 12% respectively.

Regardless of where residents spend their money, realizing that spending will occur in Sherwood Park, Edmonton or Fort Saskatchewan, the Top 5 retail spending categories for the Total Trade Area are: 1. Grocery & Specialty Foods - $176.6 Million 2. Auto/RV/Motorsport - $122.4 Million 3. Restaurants (Full & Quick Service) - $55.6 Million 4. Clothing, Apparel & Footwear - 34.9 Million 5. Home Furnishings & Appliances - $19.9 Million

Figure 3.5

TRADE AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY GENERAL CATEGORY

(Source: Manifold Data Mining Inc. & Key Planning Strategies)

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Photo courtesy of Key Planning Strategies

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4

Retail Supply

4.1

INTRODUCTION

The dynamics of the overall retail market provide critical indicators as to the performance of the retail and moreover the magnitude of demand and resulting opportunity for which certain market segments can be filled.

This section will provide a detailed inventory of the tenants that comprise the current retail market for Vegreville which serves as the core centrality for retail in the identified trade area.

The purpose of the inventory evaluation is to identify a foundation for demand and current retail performance (also known as retail sales productivity) followed by identifying the potential types of tenants and/or merchandise categories for whom Vegreville could be compatible.

4.2

VEGREVILLE RETAIL MARKET

As documented in Tables 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3 and Figures 4.1 and 4.2 the Vegreville retail market has an estimated street front floor space of approximately 708,931 sf. This floor space is comprised of business types that range from Grocery to Home Improvement, Restaurants, Personal Services such as Salons as well as Professional and Medical Services. When excluding businesses that are not retail related but do occupy retail street front spaces, the total inventory is an estimated 534,981sf.

The inventory also distinguishes between Professional Medical, Finance/Insurance/ Real Estate Services or other Non-Retail that may occupy traditional street front spaces, but typically do not have a retail productivity.

Regardless, many of these uses even if not traditional retail are essential to the lifeblood of retail and are part of the overall market demand analysis.

To document the retail inventory, Key Planning Table 4.1 Est. Area General Retail Category conducted on-the-ground fieldwork in which RETAIL MARKET SNAPSHOT (SF) street front retail premises were documented in TOTAL 708,931 terms of the retail store, merchandise category, TOTAL Retail Only 534,981 estimated unit size, vacancy as well as North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.

VACANT

The inventory was categorized into the same merchandise categories that were profiled in the retail spending so that a direct comparison could be taken. In some cases where retail data was not available, store sizes were estimated using leasing plans, brokerage websites, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and satellite mapping measurements.

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% VACANT

NAICS Sector #

121,181 sq. ft.

22.7%

Retail Space Per Capita (against TOWN Population)

90.2 sq.ft./capita

Retail Space Per Capita (against Trade Area Population)

13.7 sq.ft./capita

4.3

RETAIL VACANCY

A review of the current vacancy and nature of the vacancies provides additional cues for prospective business interests in the community.

Page 19

Figure 4.1

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE RETAIL INVENTORY MAP

(Source: Key Planning Strategies)

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Page

20

Figure 4.2

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE RETAIL INVENTORY BY CATEGORY

(Source: Key Planning Strategies)

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4

Table 4.2

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE RETAIL INVENTORY SUMMARY Existing Inventory (SF)

Merchandise Category Grocery & Specialty Foods Alcohol & Tobacco Pharmacy Personal Services Health Care & Medical Services Clothing & Apparel Footwear Jewelry & Accessories Health & Beauty Home & Personal Electronics Home Furnishings & Appliances Home Improvement & Gardening Books & Media Sporting Goods Toys & Hobbies Specialty Retail Quick Service F&B Full Service Restaurants Arts & Entertainment Fitness & Leisure Auto Parts & Accessories Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership Auto Service Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services Professional Services NON-RETAIL Streetfront VACANT

Existing Inventory (%)

89,040 5,400 18,035 20,450 20,950 38,098 5,887 5,035 5,535 7,372 29,746 51,488 1,007 8,550 5,833 38,273 12,800 35,000 4,500 10,900 17,023 55,200 23,330 42,150 10,750 25,400 121,181

TOTAL

708,931

12.6% 0.8% 2.5% 2.9% 3.0% 5.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 4.2% 7.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 5.4% 1.8% 4.9% 0.6% 1.5% 2.4% 7.8% 3.3% 5.9% 1.5% 3.6% 17.1%

100.0%

Table 4.3

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE RETAIL INVENTORY SUMMARY BY NODE Community/Neighbourhood Vegreville Eas t Vegreville Downtown Core Vegreville Midtown Vegreville Wes t

TOTAL

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Existing Inventory (SF) 111,400 238,050 117,531 241,950

708,931

Existing Inventory (%) 16% 34% 17% 34%

100%

Vacant (SF) 35,700 42,850 28,931 13,700

121,181

Vacant (%) 32% 18% 25% 6% 17%

Column1 VACANT VACANT VACANT VACANT

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Table 4.4

RETAIL INVENTORY BY NAICS CODES

(Source: Statistics Canada and Key Planning Strategies)

NAICS CLASSIFICATION 72 71 61 52 62 51 31-33 81 54 91 53 44-45 49 42 23

Accommodation & food services Arts, entertainment & recreation Educational Services Finance & Insurance Health Care & Social Assistance Information & Cultural Industries Manufacturing Other services (except public administration) Professional, scientific and technical services Public Administration Real Estate & rental & leasing Retail Trade Transportation and warehousing Wholesale Trade Construction Sector VACANT

TOTAL

Number of Businesses 16 4 14 8 3 20 6 1 4 45 1 1 27

150

Business Breakdown 10.7% 2.7% 0.0% 9.3% 5.3% 2.0% 0.0% 13.3% 4.0% 0.7% 2.7% 30.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 18.0%

100.0%

Figure 4.3

RETAIL INVENTORY BY NAICS CODES

(Source: Statistics Canada and Key Planning Strategies)

44

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 23

4 The current overall vacancy rate is estimated at 23% which is high, but does include spaces that are likely to not be considered as appropriate for future retail.

Table 4.3 shows that vacancies within Vegreville are not isolated to one particular area, but that the impact of the newest retail node on the west anchored by WalMart and Canadian Tire has had an impact on other areas of the town.

Despite the high vacancies, the implications of vacancy (buildings and land) are two-fold. Firstly, the opportunity may exist to attract businesses into existing vacant spaces or land that could have lower rent costs applied and as a result may be more attractive to local businesses who may not have the sales productivity to justify higher rents. Secondly, any new development should be very targeted for uses that have the ability to create benefit for the greater good rather than impacting existing businesses even more.

Retail opportunities exist for new-to-market tenants in spaces that are ready to occupy and in many cases are of a standard appropriate and conducive to basic tenant improvements. This is particularly the case at the Galleria Shoppes (anchored by The Brick and Dollarama), which is also located at the intersection of the community with the highest AADT traffic counts. The available space at the Galleria Shoppes total 27,731 sf or 95% of the Midtown vacancy. This node should be a marketing priority and represent the best opportunity to attract new retail to the community.

Although vacancy is a concern, equally speaking succession planning is also a concern/opportunity where it is often the case in smaller markets that businesses and buildings tend to be for sale rather than particular spaces for lease.

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4.4

RETAIL INVENTORY BY CATEGORY

Tables 4.2 and 4.3 and Figure 4.2 (and Appendix A) provides a breakdown of Vegreville’s retail inventory by category.

The Top 5 retail categories in terms of overall retail floor space in Vegreville are: 1. Grocery & Specialty Foods 89,040 sf 2. Auto/RV/Motorsports 55,200 sf 3. Home Improvement & Garden 51,488 sf 4. Finance/Insurance/Real Estate 42,150 sf 5. Clothing & Apparel 38,098 sf Vegreville has a limited retail offering within the Comparison or Department Store Type Merchandise Categories (DSTM), other than the recently opened WalMart and Canadian Tire, which are the primary reason as to why the inventory of Clothing & Apparel is among the higher floorspace categories.

While there may be opportunities to strategically add to this inventory or worth pursuing in certain circumstances, the majority of residents nonetheless will continue to be drawn to Edmonton or Sherwood Park for a more diverse retail offering.

4.5

RETAIL INVENTORY BY NAICS

Table 4.3 and Figure 4.3 provides a breakdown of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) for Vegreville’s street front businesses.

Vegreville’s street front inventory is comprised of almost 30.3% of businesses that are traditional Retail in their classification, followed by almost 10.3% in the Accommodations & Food Services classification.

Page 24

Figure 4.4

REPRESENTATIVE VEGREVILLE RETAIL IMAGERY

Source: Photos by Key Planning Strategies)

Photos courtesy of Key Planning Strategies Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 25

4 Rounding out the top 3 industries are the Finance & Insurance and Other Services which in Vegreville comprise hair salons businesses.

Combined, these classifications account for 22.8% of Vegreville’s businesses that occupy street front spaces in the community.

In predominantly rural areas such as Minburn County, Beaver County, Two Hills County, St. Paul County and the towns/hamlets therein, many communities with retail services like Vegreville are shopping locales for not only the residents of that community, but a larger regional area.

The strong presence of Finance/Insurance/ Real Estate services is equally important to acknowledge as banks in particular are the lifeblood to Downtowns and every effort should be made to ensure they stay in Vegreville’s main street/downtown.

The current retail space per capita, as calculated

by Key Planning takes into account a trade area beyond simply Vegreville by using a drive time analysis and other criteria to form the retail trade (as noted in Section 3).

4.6

RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA

Utilizing data from Key Planning’s extensive retail inventory tabulation in conjunction with Demographic Data provided by Statistics Canada and Manifold Data Mining Inc., the approximate retail space per capita ratio has been estimated for the Vegreville retail market.

As a starting point, Figure 4.5 depicts the Target Retail Space Per Capita, which provides a baseline for determining how much retail per capita is best suited to a community, according to its population size.

How much retail a community is able to support is crucial for determining future land use plans: a local government wants to have as much evidence as possible to demonstrate to potential retailers the opportunity and untapped potential in their community. Per Capita ratios can also be used as a methodology to gauge future demand, if and as population growth occurs.

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Figure 4.5 is meant to illustrate a general indication of retail opportunity and representation for communities, with an understanding that some variations do exist.

Many location specific factors contribute to an areas overall retail market, and cannot be addressed in a general chart or graph. Such locational factors can include specialized demands of a community, or unique characteristics that warrant certain retail traits.

Aside from unique locational factors that each retail trade area has, Figure 4.5 provides beneficial direction and insight for communities to consider when trying to understand the opportunities of their retail market.

Retail space per capita is an industry measure of the ratio of retail space against a city/town’s population. An examination of retail space per capita provides a general indication of whether a market is under-retailed or over-retailed.

In most urban markets in Canada and the United States, a typical benchmark for ALL retail space per capita is in the range of 30 sf to 40 sf (Source: International Council of Shopping Centers).

Page 26

Figure 4.5

RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA GROWTH CONTINUUM

Source: Key Planning Strategies)

VEGREVILLE’S PER CAPITA RETAIL RATIO IS 13.7 sq. ft. per capita when applied against the total trade area population of 38,929 An appropriate target for Vegreville Trade Area should be 25 sq. ft per capita Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 27

4 This figure can be misleading however as this accounts for organized shopping center space only in centers larger than 10,000 sf. Therefore, when factoring in all retail including street front retail, urban markets are usually much higher than this figure.

It also means that rural markets, since they don’t have the same type of retail infrastructure need to factor all space into their equation, since they are predominantly main street and multiple property owner/business owner driven.

Using Figure 4.5 as a benchmark for retail space in communities and for a comparable market like Vegreville which is more rural and reaches a wider area given the more remote nature, this figure should fall in the 25 to 35 sf per capita range.

Accordingly, the estimated retail space per capita ratio for the Vegreville and its 39,000 person retail trade area is in the range of 13.7 sf/capita if not including non-retail street front space and not accounting for other retail in the trade area. If an estimate of 300,000 sf of inventory is applied to account for other retail in the trade area, this per capita figure could increase to 21.4 sf/capita.

The Town of Vegreville should be striving for a target retail space per capita ratio of 25 sf/capita.

As an example, a trade area of 35,000 residents supporting a per capita ratio of 25 sf would result in a total supportable inventory of 875,000.

The retail inventory in terms of floor space and vacancies suggest that demand may not be robust, but that Vegreville should be very targeted in its approach to obtaining the most compatible retail businesses to fit within the community’s existing vacant spaces or land fronting or visible to/from Hwy 16A. Vegreville’s downtown is most susceptible to future retail growth in the periphery and with current high vacancies levels in the downtown as well as at the Galleria Shoppes, caution should be exercised to make sure that businesses and vacancies in the downtown are promoted to best degree possible.

Much of the future demand and tenant prospects are likely to be of a branded nature and by virtue of their site selection requirements, they will be looking for tenant ready spaces such as those at the WalMart Node or at the Galleria Shoppes.

The per capita figure illustrates that the inventory for Vegreville is not just a local market, nor is it a 50,000 person trade area. The reality for Vegreville is that it is a regional hub that in reality serves a minimum 25,000 person market, but as shown in the Trade Area profile is more in line with a 30,000 to 40,000 person trade area.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 28

Resident Spending / Economic Leakage Questionnaire Vegreville, Alberta September 4th, 2018

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Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

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5

Consumer Survey

5.1

INTRODUCTION

MDB Insight conducted a random telephone survey in which respondents were asked a number of questions regarding their shopping habits and preferences as it relates to Vegreville’s current retail market.

Survey respondents were only interviewed if they were residents of the Town of Vegreville and a survey sample size of 150 persons was obtained.

5.2

CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS

The consumer survey identified a number of questions to gauge how the residents are spending their money inside Vegreville, outside Vegreville and on-line. In addition to the spending habits, questions were asked pertaining to their reasons for shopping outside of Vegreville and what types of shops, services or other offering would play a key role in retaining their spending in the community.

Accordingly, Table 5.1 and Figures 5.1 to 5.7 illustrate the key findings and patterns based on the responses from the Vegreville residents interviewed.

Overall Spending Patterns In terms of an overall retail spending, as shown in Figure 5.2, approximately 46% of the survey respondents indicated that they spend between $1 and $499 on average per month for retail products and services. An additional 24% spend between $500 and $999 on average per month.

Of the latter total average monthly spending, respondents were asked to indicate how much of that spending was located to day-to-day purchases or convenience (refer to Figure 5.3).

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The survey results indicated that 29% of respondents allocated between 40% to 60% of their total spend on day-to-day purchases, while 23% of respondents indicated that they allocated between 60% to 80% of their total spend on dayto-day purchases.

This pattern is strong for local conveniences, but suggests an opportunity for greater spending on DSTM (Department Store Type Merchandise) is prevalent, but may not be fully captured the overall offering in the community.

Spending Inside Vegreville Table 5.1 and Figures 5.1 and 5.4 illustrate the nature of spending by survey respondents on all purchases inside Vegreville.

The results illustrate that for the residents of Vegreville, overall retention of retail spending is high for most categories across the board. In fact, the recent introduction of WalMart and Canadian Tire has likely been a catalyst to greater retention of local resident spending, where upwards of 50% of respondent spending on a category like Clothing, Apparel and Footwear is inside the Town. Similarly, the addition of The Brick likely has been a big factor in the approximate 62% of retained spending on Home Furnishings and Appliances.

As expected, conveniences and day-to-day purchases inside Vegreville are very strong as are Home Improvement, Quick Service Restaurants and Auto Parts.

The overall estimate for sales retention in the Town by Survey Respondents (100% of which were residents) is calculated at 73%, which is healthy.

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Table 5.1

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE MONTHLY RETAIL SPENDING

BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY SEGMENT

(Source: MDB Insight)

Local Spending (Inside Vegreville)

Online Spending

Outside Vegreville

Grocery/specialty foods/floral

86.74

0.43

12.83

Alcohol & Tobacco

88.62

0.37

11.01

Pharmacy (prescription and over-the-counter)

94.73

0

5.27

Health and beauty (fitness, barber, beauty salon, spa)

82.89

1.44

15.67

Personal/household services (eye glasses/lens, travel agent, post office/courier, dry cleaning/laundry, veterinarian, plumber, etc.)

86.74

2.91

10.34

Health services (doctor, dentist, optometrist)

77.61

0.21

22.18

Financial/professional services (banking, insurance, legal, accounting)

87.32

2.04

10.64

Clothing, Apparel & Footwear

51.69

6.33

41.99

Jewellery and accessories

48.71

5.86

45.43

Home & Personal electronics/appliances

62.27

4.16

33.57

Home furnishings/accessories

62.62

1.12

36.26

Hardware and home improvement

80.33

0.2

19.47

Books and multimedia

55.54

18.55

25.91

Sporting goods

42.42

6.33

51.25

Toys and hobbies

63.87

7.67

28.46

60.82

0

39.18

77.33

0.14

22.53

63.16

1.27

35.57

Auto, RV & Motorsports Dealerships

65.87

0.96

33.17

Auto Parts, Maintenance & Accessories

82.7

4.05

13.25

Retail Merchandise & Spending Category

Full service restaurants (provide examples such as Brown’s Social House, Original Joes etc.)

Fast food restaurants & cafes (provide examples such as Subway, Tim Hortons, Starbucks, etc.)

Family entertainment & leisure (provide examples such as movie theatres, bowling alleys, etc.)

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Figure 5.1

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE MONTHLY RETAIL SPENDING

BY MERCHANDISE CATEGORY SEGMENT

(Source: MDB Insight)

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Page

32

Figure 5.2

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE OF AVERAGE MONTHLY RETAIL SPENDING

(Source: MDB Insight)

Figure 5.3

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE SPENT ON DAY-TO-DAY PURCHASES

(Source: MDB Insight)

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Page 33

5 Spending Outside Vegreville Table 5.1 and Figure 5.5 illustrate the nature of spending by survey respondents on all purchases outside Vegreville or “leakage”.

Vegreville and that there is a better selection at other destinations, namely Edmonton, Sherwood Park and Fort Saskatchewan, or Online.

Online Spending

The results of the survey indicate that almost 62% of the respondents indicated that they spend less than 20% of their retail dollars outside of Vegreville. This represents a very strong retention of local resident spending.

Referring to Figure 5.6, when respondents were asked to identify their primary reasons for shopping outside of Vegreville, the top rationale provided were that stores simply weren’t in

Table 5.1 and Figure 5.7 illustrates the nature of online spending as it relates to consumer spending of survey respondents.

Figure 5.7 reveals that 71% of the survey respondents typically spend less than 5% of their retail expenditure on online purchases.

Figure 5.4

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE SPENT LOCALLY IN VEGREVILLE

(Source: MDB Insight)

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Page 34

Figure 5.5

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE SPENT OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE

(Source: MDB Insight)

Figure 5.6

SURVEY RESPONDENT PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT SHOPPING IN VEGREVILLE

(Source: MDB Insight)

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Page 35

5 While this trend continues to gain momentum, nationally, the fact that 18.5% of survey respondents spent between 5% to 10% of their spending online is a noticeable market share that more than likely validates the rationale identified for store selection or product variety, when those types of stores aren’t available in Vegreville.

It will be difficult for Vegreville to curb its online sales trend as many of the store types consumers are using either don’t have a physical bricks and mortar location or it is a brand for whom Vegreville is not a target market. The reality is that local businesses could expand their online capacity and/or have a location that allows for the expedience and access to central pick up.

5.3

SUMMARY

The consumer survey documented a very strong pattern of local sales retention and as will be highlighted in Appendix B, provided some direction as to desired store types or brands.

Since the survey only examined local resident spending patterns it is important to note that the true success of Vegreville will come from its wider supporting trade area, which is the foundation and justification for the current retail inventory and future demand.

Figure 5.7

SURVEY RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE SPENT ON ON-LINE

(Source: MDB Insight)

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Page 36

Photo courtesy of Key Planning Strategies

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Page 37

6

Retail Demand

6.1

INTRODUCTION

The following section will assess the amount of supportable floor space in Vegreville justified by the Trade Area it serves. After determining the supportable and residual floor space (if and as determined), the retail analysis will measure the difference between the supply and demand as presented in terms of inflow or outflow of retail sales and the net resulting implications on demand and tenant prospects.

6.2

RETAIL FLOOR SPACE DEMAND

In most typical urban market scenarios, forecasting retail demand would largely be predicated and have a close correlation with population growth and the inherent opportunities that would naturally come from a growing trade area.

However in secondary or rural markets and since population growth forecasts in Vegreville are not expected to provide this requisite increase, an alternative approach to demand is applied.

The overall retail market in Vegreville seems exhibit some small-scale near term opportunities within the existing retail inventory to accommodate new business opportunities.

With this understanding of Vegreville’s market dynamic and population growth, the key to forecasting new floorspace demand must look at the notion of achieving a greater market share of the existing spending for categories that represent strength today. In particular, as will be shown this greater market share will need to apply to the surrounding trade, less so than for existing Vegreville residents, who as evidenced in the consumer survey are a very strong and loyal spending segment.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

From Key Planning’s extensive analysis of the current retail inventory, retail sales productivity estimates were applied to each of the respective categories to provide an indication of the current estimated retail sales that the community’s businesses are generating.

A sounding board for retail productivities are the lease rates which are estimated to be in the range of $7 - $10 per sf in the Town’s downtown core, $12 to $15 in the Galleria Shoppes (excluding Operating Costs estimated at $4 to $5 per sf) and $20+ at the new Vegreville Power Centre.

On this basis, it is estimated that retail sales productivities in the community would average in the $175 to $275 per sq. ft. range with the possible exception of conveniences which could be in the range of $300 to $400 per sq. ft. The more remote nature of Vegreville also would suggest lower sales productivities than a typical urban market like Sherwood Park or growing suburban market like Fort Saskatchewan.

In applying sales productivities as shown in Table 6.1 against the Town’s current retail inventory of occupied space only suggests that Vegreville currently garners only 24% market share of the total trade area retail spending, which also factors in a “miscellaneous inflow” component to account for passing ‘pit-stop’ motorists.

It was noted through the consumer survey that the residents of Vegreville represent a total market share of 73% of the Town’s retail spending.

However, Vegreville’s population only accounts for approximately 15% of the identifier trade area. When factoring out the Town’s high market share, the resulting market share of the Trade Area is only 13%. This low figure is where the greatest opportunity lies for Vegreville.

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TABLE 6.1

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE ESTIMATED RETAIL MARKET SHARE AND PRODUCTIVITY

Miscellaneous Spending Inflow Factor 1 5% 10% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 5% 50% 30% 0% 0% 5% 5%

Merchandise Category

Grocery & Specialty Foods Pharmacy Alcohol & Tobacco Personal Services Health Care & Medical Services Clothing & Apparel Footwear Jewelry & Accessories Health & Beauty Home Furnishings & Appliances Home & Personal Electronics Home Improvement & Gardening Books & Media Sporting Goods Toys & Hobbies Specialty Retail Quick Service F&B Full Service Restaurants Arts & Entertainment Fitness & Leisure Auto Parts & Accessories Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

2018 Total Trade Area Retail Spending (with Misc Inflow) $159,035,197 $10,012,614 $16,742,390 $15,028,009 $11,579,231 $22,084,352 $7,619,650 $4,166,766 $8,847,733 $16,972,337 $16,534,409 $12,801,412 $16,358,819 $12,969,987 $3,345,484 $15,464,396 $28,753,244 $35,777,733 $11,793,490 $4,911,569 $8,179,815 $108,240,737

$547,219,373

2018 Estimated Retail Sales Productivity ($psf) $400 $400 $400 $200 $200 $200 $200 $320 $240 $200 $220 $160 $160 $200 $200 $240 $320 $320 $120 $120 $200 $320

$270

2018 2018 Estimated Market Share 22% 22% 43% 27% 36% 35% 15% 39% 15% 35% 10% 64% 1% 13% 35% 59% 14% 31% 5% 27% 42% 16%

24%

2018 Estimated Retail Sales $ (Inflow)

2018 Current Town Retail Inventory (sq. ft.) 2

$35,616,000 $2,160,000 $7,214,000 $4,090,000 $4,190,000 $7,619,500 $1,177,300 $1,611,200 $1,328,400 $5,949,200 $1,621,730 $8,238,080 $161,120 $1,710,000 $1,166,600 $9,185,520 $4,096,000 $11,200,000 $540,000 $1,308,000 $3,404,500 $17,664,000

89,040 5,400 18,035 20,450 20,950 38,098 5,887 5,035 5,535 29,746 7,372 51,488 1,007 8,550 5,833 38,273 12,800 35,000 4,500 10,900 17,023 55,200

$131,251,150

486,120

NOTES & ASSUMPTIONS 1 Miscellaneous Inflow accounts for residents falling outside of the Primary Trade Area as well as Hotel Visitors & Passing Motorists not accounted for in residential base 2 Retail inventory includes inventory includes Town of Vegreville and does not include outlying Hamlets 3 Home Improvement can be a misleading category as a share of the sales in this market would come from contractors etc. and not necessarily “resident spending� upon which demand is based in this case.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 39

6 Firstly, a realistic trade area must be applied, when realizing the highly mobile nature of consumer spending.

Secondly, a targeted marketing strategy should be established that focuses on the key communities in the realistic trade area as a means to garnering more of their day-to-day spending as well as more infrequent purchases (clothing, auto etc).

The key to Vegreville’s retail opportunity lies in incrementally and slowly increasing the overall market share of sales, realizing that the draw of Edmonton and Sherwood Park and to a lesser extent Fort Saskatchewan and Camrose will still continue to be notable factors in attracting spending in the DSTM type categories.

Vegreville is a trade area that is within a “competitive� drive time from Edmonton and particularly Sherwood Park, which does put some constraints on the future growth of its market.

The analysis of market shares as shown in Table 6.2 and Figure 6.1 further illustrate that in particular, merchandise categories that include Grocery & Conveniences, Personal Services, and Restaurants could boost their market share to provide sufficient demand to warrant additional businesses in the community by 2023.

This opportunity is summarized as follows: Grocery & Convenience new demand 16,500 sf market share increase from 22% to 25%

Restaurant F&B new demand

6,500 sf

While these numbers on the surface may seem low, they are in step with the size of the trade area as well as in step with the likely demand from potential businesses with the understanding that growth will need to occur by better penetrating the existing trade area.

If Vegreville were to increase its current market share penetration by only 4% from an estimated 24% to 28%, then the total demand by the year 2023, without new population growth could be approximately 90,000 sf.

Part of the overall demand in Vegreville is not premised on providing new retail space since the current vacancy is high and there are some wellpositioned assets available for tenancies.

The reality is that this space may only result in a few specifically targeted new businesses, but rather the goal should also be to ensure that existing businesses can increase their market share and resulting sales and profitability rather than adding new space to further dilute what exists today.

Retail growth need not always be about adding new retail, but creating an environment for stronger retention and performance of existing businesses, particularly in a community like Vegreville where larger competitive forces exist within a 1-hour drive time.

market share increase from 31% to 34%

Clothing & Apparel new demand

7,000 sf

market share increase from 35% to 38%

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FIGURE 6.1

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE 2023 NET POTENTIAL DEMAND BY CATEGORY

Convenience Categories Comparison or DSTM Categories Food & Beverage Categories Entertainment & Leisure Categories Automotive Categories

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6 TABLE 6.2

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE TARGETED RETAIL MARKET SHARE AND RESULTING DEMAND FORECAST 2023 2023

Miscellaneous Spending Inflow Factor 1 5% 10% 10% 5% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% 5% 50% 30% 0% 0% 5% 5%

Merchandise Category

Grocery & Specialty Foods Pharmacy Alcohol & Tobacco Personal Services Health Care & Medical Services Clothing & Apparel Footwear Jewelry & Accessories Health & Beauty Home Furnishings & Appliances Home & Personal Electronics Home Improvement & Gardening Books & Media Sporting Goods Toys & Hobbies Specialty Retail Quick Service F&B Full Service Restaurants Arts & Entertainment Fitness & Leisure Auto Parts & Accessories Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

2023 Target Market Share of Retail Spending 25% 24% 47% 30% 40% 38% 17% 43% 17% 39% 11% 71% 1% 15% 38% 65% 16% 34% 5% 29% 46% 18%

28%

2023 Estimated Retail Sales $ (Inflow) 2 $42,205,402 $2,559,627 $8,548,679 $4,846,701 $4,965,202 $9,029,202 $1,395,115 $1,909,292 $1,574,170 $7,049,876 $1,921,770 $9,762,227 $190,929 $2,026,371 $1,382,435 $10,884,955 $4,853,811 $13,272,139 $639,907 $1,549,996 $4,034,375 $20,932,059

$155,534,241

2023 Potential Retail Inventory

2023 Potential Net Future Retail Floorspace Demand

105,514 6,399 21,372 24,234 24,826 45,146 6,976 5,967 6,559 35,249 8,735 61,014 1,193 10,132 6,912 45,354 15,168 41,475 5,333 12,917 20,172 65,413

576,058

16,474 999 3,337 3,784 3,876 7,049 1,089 932 1,024 5,503 1,364 9,526 186 1,582 1,079 7,081 2,368 6,475 833 2,017 3,149 10,213

89,938

NOTES & ASSUMPTIONS 1 Miscellaneous Inflow accounts for residents falling outside of the Trade Area as well as passing motorists 2 Retail inventory includes primarily Town of Vegreville and not outlying Hamlets.

3 2023 Estimated Retail Sales reflect an inflationary increase of 1.5% per annum given the less urban nature of the Town.

4 Home improvement has an inflow factor that is attributed not to passing motorists, but to contractor sales that would not otherwise be accounted for in average household expenditure surveys.

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6.3

DEVELOPING SUCCESSFUL RETAIL

According to ICSC’s “Developing Successful Retail in Secondary and Rural Markets”, targeted retail recruitment should reach out to those retailers or developers who may not have discovered a respective community yet.

However, the process to attract businesses must be tempered by reality and thus cognizant of the following: •

•

•

•

•

Pay attention to the geographic base of operations for retailers. Do not expect retailers to deviate significantly from their base of operations to serve a small community; Accept that most retailers have established minimum trade area populations or income thresholds for success based on years of operating experience; Understand that the limited consumer spending in small communities simply cannot support some retailers offering specialized merchandise assortments; Be realistic about how the business opportunity in a respective community ranks against other opportunities in front of the retailer; and Understand the co-tenancy requirements that retailers have established as predictors of success.

Overall, commercial real estate continues to shift to meet the rapidly changing tastes and needs of target markets. Consumers now value uniqueness, and they are quick to switch their brand allegiance. These emerging trends require new developments that are adaptable and flexible, which can stay relevant and retain their consumer base.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

One of the most critical aspects to being proactive and understanding whom to target starts with creating a business case based on some statistical foundation.

A statistical business case is typically required to explain the merits of a community. It is important to first establish an understanding of the communities before promoting any specific site option.

Accordingly, Vegreville was profiled to illustrate and document the following statistical facts: •

Geographic delineation of the retail trade area that reflects a realistic drive time or market penetration;

•

Demographic and economic profiles of the trade area population;

•

Growth projections for the trade area population;

•

Annual retail spending;

•

Sales performance of key retail categories;

•

Current estimated retained market share of trade area spending; and

•

Current supportable retail space.

Retail Development Fundamentals Retail development, whether in smaller communities such as those found throughout the northern/northeastern Alberta region, or like those on the fringe of a larger urban or metropolitan market like Edmonton, are driven by critical business fundamentals that must be acknowledged and considered when identifying retail opportunities.

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6 By way of a checklist, these include:

6.4

•

Population characteristics of the consumer base;

•

The reality that retail follows consumers;

•

Consistent and high shopper traffic is a prerequisite for most retailers;

•

The consumer base must demonstrate sufficient buying power to be of interest to retailers;

With an understanding of the trade area in terms of spending and demographics along with an understanding of the retail market dynamics, specific potential targeted tenants, many of whom would operate a Franchise model have been identified in Table 6.3.

•

•

Chain retailers have a limited number of prototypical store formats that they are willing to operate. Deviating from these established formats is done only as a last resort in circumstances where demand for a location by a retailer or developer is high; Most retailers require sites with convenient access, high visibility, and ample parking;

•

Most retailers expand in well-defined geographic areas that coincide with their distribution networks and their familiarity with consumer preferences;

•

Most retailers have established criteria for site selection. For example, Shoppers Drug Mart typically requires a population of 10,000 people in order to build a 15,000 sf store;

•

Clustering of compatible retailers has become the norm;

•

Retailers cannot generally survive rent-tosales ratios in excess of 15%. Retailers have a threshold level of sales they know they must achieve to be profitable; and

•

Retailers attempt to maximize profitability by operating the fewest number of stores possible in any market to avoid sales transference.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

TARGET RETAIL PROSPECTS

The Consumer Survey respondents as well as Key Planning’s extensive network of retailers, sheds some light as to the future compatible businesses for Vegreville.

To be successful in attracting these store types or brands it is incumbent upon Vegreville to strive to increase its market share of trade area retail spending.

The identified target prospects have been allocated into time horizons of 5 year increments realizing that if successful in the next 5 years of garnering more market share, additional tenants will take notice and give consideration to locating in Vegreville.

While there is no guarantee, the current retail market is void of a few immediate opportunities for whom spaces do exist, but the marketing message needs to be clear and real in terms of the market opportunity.

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TABLE 6.3

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE TARGET RETAIL TENANTS

Retailer

Merchandise Category Segment

Tirecraft Alia n Tanjay Ardene Children's Place Marshall's Old Navy Pennington's Reitman's Ricki's/Cleo's Warehouse One Winners Brown's Social House Denny's Humpty's Joey's Only Montana's BBQ & Bar Moxie's Classic Grill Original Joe's Real Canadian Brewhouse Red Lobster Red Robin Ricky's All Day Grill Sawmill Steakhouse Smitty's State & Main Kitchen Swiss Chalet Tony Roma's Arby's Booster Juice Burger King Chopped Leaf Cora's Five Guys Burger & Fries Freshii Good Earth Coffee Harvey's KFC Little Caesar's Pizza Mary Brown's Chicken Mucho Burrito Nando's Chicken Opa Second Cup Starbucks Waves Coffee Wendy's

Auto Parts & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories Clothing & Accessories F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Full Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service F&B Restaurant - Quick Service

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Time Horizon Near Term 2018 to 2023

Time Horizon Long Term 2023 to 2028 ✓

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Page 45

TABLE 6.3

TOWN OF VEGREVILLE TARGET RETAIL TENANTS (Continued)

Retailer

Merchandise Category Segment

Payless Shoes Giant Tiger Lonodon Drugs Red Apple Shopper's Drug Mart Value Village 7/11 Convenience Cobs Bread M&M Meat Shops Sally's Beauty Supplies Bouclair Home Outfitters Home Sense Home Depot Tommy Gun's Bulk Barn Global Pet Foods Michael's Crafts Mills Stationary Source For Sports EB Games Mastermind Toys

Footwear General Merchandise General Merchandise General Merchandise General Merchandise General Merchandise Grocery & Specialty Foods Grocery & Specialty Foods Grocery & Specialty Foods Health & Beauty Home Furnishings & Décor Home Furnishings & Décor Home Furnishings & Décor Home Improvement & Gardening Personal Service Specialty Retail Specialty Retail Specialty Retail Specialty Retail Sporting Goods & Recreation Toys, Games & Hobbies Toys, Games & Hobbies

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Time Horizon Near Term 2018 to 2023

Time Horizon Long Term 2023 to 2028

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

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6 6.5

SUMMARY

Given current vacancies in the community, combined with some small strategic land assets fronting Hwy 16A the amount of forecast space could be accommodated in a manner that would likely not be impactful to the community, but could fill some complementary niches, while utilizing current available spaces, particularly at a node like the Galleria Shoppes.

The overall message is that retail demand is not predicated on simply adding new space, but specifically targeting new businesses that have the capacity to succeed while not creating a negative impact on existing local businesses.

In retail however, sometimes competition is necessary to ensure that spending is retained in the community and in many cases a new competitor can actually increase the overall spending.

Without population increase, but a marginal increase in overall market share of trade area spending, Vegreville could add to its retail inventory by as much as 90,000 sf in specifically targeted categories/business types.

In a secondary market like Vegreville the key to attracting businesses lies not only in presenting a good market and business case, but will likely fall under two (2) approaches; securing franchise partners and succession planning.

The optimal approach for this target is to look at a market like Edmonton, Sherwood Park, Fort Saskatchewan or Lloydminster to see if existing franchise holders would be interested in additional locations as part of an overall locational network strategy, particularly along Hwy 16/16A. This approach is preferred by franchisers as there is a built in relationship with the franchisees who understand the business model.

The second approach for succession planning is often overlooked in smaller or secondary markets, where a successful local business may be family run and is of value to the community, but its future is up-in-the-air because no one is able to take over.

An organization such as Succession Matching (www.successionmatching.com) provides a road map for businesses to ensure they can continue in their respective communities. Succession planning looks to understand the Consumer Segment, Value Proposition, Revenue Streams, Distribution Channels and Key Partnerships.

Vegreville may not exhibit significant demand forecasts, but with strategic messaging, collaborations and awareness can retain and attract business opportunities that could utilize existing vacancies or new land for the betterment of the community.

For many businesses with recognized brands, the likelihood of attracting a corporate run store is limited, but the franchise model is a distinct possibility.

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 47

Retail Gap Analysis - APPENDICES

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

General Retail Category

Small Town Vapes

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Alcohol & Tobacco

2,000

44-45

Capitol Theatre

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Arts & Entertainment

4,500

71

Retail Trade Arts, entertainment & recreation

ATB Financial

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

4,700

52

Finance & Insurance

BMO

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

2,800

52

Finance & Insurance

Canada Trust

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,850

52

Finance & Insurance

Century 21

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

700

53

Real Estate & rental & leasing

CIBC

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

3,000

52

Finance & Insurance

Lakeland Realty

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,750

53

Real Estate & rental & leasing

Royal Lepage

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

750

53

Real Estate & rental & leasing

Synergy Accountants

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

2,800

52

Finance & Insurance

Vegreville Accounting Services

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,400

52

Finance & Insurance

Vinet's Village Mall - Cooperators

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,400

52

Finance & Insurance

Vision Credit Union

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

5,200

52

Finance & Insurance

Western Financial Services

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,000

52

Finance & Insurance

Wiebe Insurance

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,800

52

Finance & Insurance

Wild & Company Accountants (2 Levels)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

9,000

52

Vegreville Bowling

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Fitness & Leisure

5,900

71

Finance & Insurance Arts, entertainment & recreation

Vegreville Gymnastics

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Fitness & Leisure

1,200

71

Arts, entertainment & recreation

Pat's Shoes Plus

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Footwear

New Alberta Pub

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

4,500

72

Accommodation & food services

Bamboo Chopsticks Restaurant

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

2,400

72

Accommodation & food services

Chin's Restaurant

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

2,400

72

Accommodation & food services

Vinet's Village Mall - Vito's Restaurant

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

5,000

72

COOP Grocery

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

21,500

44-45

Accommodation & food services Retail Trade

Prime Cuts Meat Deli

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

3,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Natural Health Centre

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Health & Beauty

500

44-45

Retail Trade

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Est. Area (SF)

500

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name

44-45

Retail Trade

Page

49

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

Alberta Sports Vision Institute Optometrist

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

2,000

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

IRIS Optometry

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

1,750

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

Vegreville Dental Centre

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

3,300

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

Vegreville Denture Clinic

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

1,300

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

Vinet's Village Mall - Vegreville Eye Clinic

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

5,000

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

Vinet's Village Mall - Vegreville Family Clinic

Vegreville Downtown Core

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

3,500

62

Health Care & Social Assistance

Blind Superstore

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Home Furnishings & Appliances

1,800

44-45

Retail Trade

Blinds Unlimited

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Home Furnishings & Appliances

750

44-45

Retail Trade

Framed Custom Framing

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Home Furnishings & Appliances

1,500

44-45

Retail Trade

Home Hardware ****

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Home Furnishings & Appliances

3,800

44-45

Retail Trade

Home Hardware ****

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

4,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Kwiklean Industries

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

1,600

81

Other services (except public administration)

Chamber of Commerce

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

900

81

Other services (except public administration)

Community Futures

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

900

81

Other services (except public administration)

Digital Web.net Internet Services

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

2,800

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

Elk Island Public School

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

1,000

91

Public Administration

News Advertiser

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

2,900

51

Information & Cultural Industries

Post Office

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

3,500

49

Transportation and warehousing

Shineatek IT Services

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

1,700

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

The Rock Ministries

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

2,000

51

Information & Cultural Industries

Vegreville Plumbing & Heating

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

3,400

23

Construction Sector

Vegreville Wildlife Federation

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

1,200

81

Other services (except public administration)

Armstrong Cleaners

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,300

81

Other services (except public administration)

Blessed Be Wellness

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,200

81

Other services (except public administration)

Capri Beauty

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

2,700

81

Other services (except public administration)

Elizabeth Rose Hair

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

900

81

Other services (except public administration)

Estetic Essence Spa

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,800

81

Other services (except public administration)

Hair By VJ (Salon & Spa)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,500

81

Other services (except public administration)

Hair Fantasies

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,700

81

Other services (except public administration)

Hair Stylist (formerly Jim's Barber)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

750

81

Other services (except public administration)

Hair Wizard

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

700

81

Other services (except public administration)

Holistic Centre

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Personal Services

1,000

81

Other services (except public administration)

Medicine Shoppe

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Pharmacy

3,000

44-45

Vinet's Village Mall - Value Drug Mart/Pharmachoice

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Pharmacy

10,000

44-45

Altus Appraisal

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Professional Services

750

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

Duncan & Craig LLP

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Professional Services

3,200

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

Insight for Life Law

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Professional Services

1,800

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

Vegreville Learning Society

Vegreville Downtown Core

Non-Retail

Professional Services

1,000

81

Other services (except public administration)

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

General Retail Category

Est. Area (SF)

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name

Retail Trade Retail Trade

Page

50

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

General Retail Category

Everything Tea & Gifts

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Quick Service F&B

2,700

72

Accommodation & food services

Perry's 2for1 Pizza

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Quick Service F&B

700

72

Accommodation & food services

Basic Life Supplies

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

600

44-45

Retail Trade

Ceramic Cottage

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

1,500

44-45

Retail Trade

Esteem Wedding & Event Rentals

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

4,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Flowerland

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

2,300

44-45

Retail Trade

Off the Rails Antiques

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

2,000

44-45

Retail Trade

The Stichin' Post

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

750

44-45

Retail Trade

Urban Bloom

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

2,600

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegtel Gifts

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

900

44-45

Retail Trade

Ziegler's Fashion & Quilt Rack

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

Specialty Retail

1,700

44-45

VACANT (4916 50th Ave)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

750

Retail Trade VACANT

VACANT (4930 50th Ave)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

800

VACANT

VACANT (5006 52nd St) formerly Little House of Fashion

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

700

VACANT

VACANT (5006 52nd St) formerly The Bullpen Sports Bar

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

6,000

VACANT

VACANT (5020 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

1,600

VACANT

VACANT (5025 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

1,900

VACANT

VACANT (5114 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

2,500

VACANT

VACANT (5125 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

2,800

VACANT

VACANT (5127 50th St) formerly Pretty Country Boutiqe

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

1,800

VACANT

Vinet's Village Mall - VACANT Unit 106

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

10,000

VACANT

Vinet's Village Mall - VACANT Unit 108

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

12,000

VACANT

Vinet's Village Mall - VACANT Unit 122

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

1,000

VACANT

Vinet's Village Mall - VACANT Unit 123

Vegreville Downtown Core

Retail

VACANT

1,000

VACANT

VACANT LOT (4924-4922 50th Ave)

Vegreville Downtown Core

VACANT LOT (4928 51st Ave)

Vegreville Downtown Core

VACANT LOT (4934 51st Ave)

Vegreville Downtown Core

VACANT LOT (5109 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

VACANT LOT (5134 50th St)

Vegreville Downtown Core

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Est. Area (SF)

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name

Page

51

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

General Retail Category

Bumper To Bumper Auto Parts

Vegreville East

Auto Retail

Auto Parts & Accessories

3,200

44-45

Jiffy Lube with Car Wash

Vegreville East

Auto Retail

Auto Service

3,000

81

Other services (except public administration)

Dubuc Accounting

Vegreville East

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,500

52

Finance & Insurance

Investment Planning Counsel/Bilyk Financial

Vegreville East

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,500

52

Finance & Insurance

Royal Lepage Homewise Realty

Vegreville East

Non-Retail

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Services

1,000

53

Real Estate & rental & leasing

Mobil Mart Gas Station & Kiosk

Vegreville East

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

200

44-45

Retail Trade

No Frills

Vegreville East

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

39,150

44-45

Retail Trade

UFA Cardlock

Vegreville East

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

1,750

44-45

Retail Trade

Telus/Koodo

Vegreville East

Retail

Home & Personal Electronics

1,500

44-45

Retail Trade

Alta-Wide Timber Mart

Vegreville East

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

8,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Vantage Buildng Supplies (1/2 of space est for retail)

Vegreville East

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

7,400

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Laundromat & Car Wash

Vegreville East

Retail

Personal Services

4,500

81

Other services (except public administration)

DQ Grill & Chill

Vegreville East

Retail

Quick Service F&B

3,000

72

Accommodation & food services

VACANT (4809 50th Ave) former 7/11 with gas

Vegreville East

Retail

VACANT

2,600

VACANT

VACANT (4826 51st Ave)

Vegreville East

Retail

VACANT

8,100

VACANT

VACANT (4846 50th Ave)

Vegreville East

Retail

VACANT

25,000

VACANT

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Est. Area (SF)

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name Retail Trade

Page

52

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

General Retail Category

Liquor Den

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Alcohol & Tobacco

Kal Tire

Vegreville Midtown

Auto Retail

Auto Service

11,500

81

Other services (except public administration)

OK Tire

Vegreville Midtown

Auto Retail

Auto Service

1,800

81

Other services (except public administration)

Grant Miller Chevrolet

Vegreville Midtown

Auto Retail

Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

Galleria Shops - Snap Fitness

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Fitness & Leisure

3,800

71

Arts, entertainment & recreation

Centre 50 - Albert's Family Restaurant

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

4,000

72

Accommodation & food services

Centre 50 - China Zone Restaurant

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

3,000

72

Accommodation & food services

Galleria Shops - Olds School Diner

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

3,900

72

Accommodation & food services

Pizza Hut

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

1,800

72

Shell Select

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

1,300

44-45

Accommodation & food services Retail Trade

Est. Area (SF) 2,200

14,300

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name 44-45

44-45

Retail Trade

Retail Trade

Health Care & Social Assistance

Galleria Shops - Main Chiropractic

Vegreville Midtown

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

1,600

62

Galleria Shops - The Brick

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Home Furnishings & Appliances

7,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Peavy Mart

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

10,500

44-45

Retail Trade

PPG Paints & Budget Floors

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

3,300

44-45

Galleria Shop - 106.5 Radio

Vegreville Midtown

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

1,500

51

Information & Cultural Industries

Vegreville Veterinarian Clinic

Vegreville Midtown

Non-Retail

Professional Services

4,000

54

Professional, scientific and technical services

A&W

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Quick Service F&B

1,800

72

Accommodation & food services

Subway

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Quick Service F&B

1,800

72

Accommodation & food services

Galleria Shops - Dollarama

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

Specialty Retail

9,500

44-45

Centre 50 - VACANT (5336 50th Ave)

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

1,200

Retail Trade VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

2,559

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

7,102

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

1,460

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

1,835

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

1,867

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

2,103

VACANT

Galleria Shop - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

2,105

VACANT

Galleria Shops - VACANT

Vegreville Midtown

Retail

VACANT

8,700

VACANT

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Retail Trade

Page

53

Retail Business Name

Community

Retail or Other

General Retail Category

Vegreville Power Centre - Salty's Liquor

Vegreville West

Retail

Alcohol & Tobacco

1,200

44-45

Retail Trade

Maddigan Chrysler

Vegreville West

Auto Retail

Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

23,600

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Ford

Vegreville West

Auto Retail

Auto/RV/Motorsports Dealership

17,300

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Power Centre - Marks

Vegreville West

Retail

Clothing & Apparel

15,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Power Centre - Tower Tack & Western Wear

Vegreville West

Retail

Clothing & Apparel

1,200

44-45

Retail Trade

Garden Inn Lounge

Vegreville West

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

2,000

72

Accommodation & food services

Vegreville Power Centre - Boston Pizza

Vegreville West

Retail

Full Service Restaurants

6,000

72

Vegreville Power Centre - Canadian Tire****

Vegreville West

Retail

General Merchandise

35,150

44-45

Accommodation & food services Retail Trade

Vegreville Power Centre - Walmart****

Vegreville West

Retail

General Merchandise

100,700

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Power Centre - Fas Gas On The Run

Vegreville West

Retail

Grocery & Specialty Foods

2,000

44-45

Vegreville Power Centre - Vegreville Family Dentistry

Vegreville West

Medical Retail Health Care & Medical Services

2,500

62

Vegreville Power Centre - The Source

Vegreville West

Retail

Home & Personal Electronics

2,100

44-45

Retail Trade

Town & Country Floors

Vegreville West

Retail

Home Improvement & Gardening

4,000

44-45

Retail Trade

Vegreville Fire & Safety

Vegreville West

Non-Retail

NON-RETAIL Streetfront

2,000

81

Other services (except public administration)

Vegreville Power Centre - Money Mart

Vegreville West

Retail

Personal Services

2,400

52

Finance & Insurance

Vegreville Power Centre -Tim Hortons

Vegreville West

Retail

Quick Service F&B

2,800

72

Accommodation & food services

Vegreville Power Centre - Dollar Tree

Vegreville West

Retail

Specialty Retail

8,300

44-45

VACANT (6022 50th Ave)

Vegreville West

Retail

VACANT

9,200

Retail Trade VACANT

Vegreville Power Centre - VACANT TO BE BUILT

Vegreville West

Retail

VACANT

4,500

VACANT

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Est. Area (SF)

NAICS Sector # NAICS Sector Name

Retail Trade

Health Care & Social Assistance

Page

54

Resident Spending / Economic Leakage Questionnaire Vegreville, Alberta September 4th, 2018

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis

Page 55

Introduction: Intro 1: Hello, my name is _insert_name_, may I speak with the person in the household with the most recent birthday that is above the age of 18? [If asked why, refer to Intro 2] Intro 2: [Reintroduce yourself] I’m calling on behalf of the Town of Vegreville to understand local resident shopping preferences. This will help the Town to identify what kinds of businesses to try and attract to the community that people are asking for. Please be assured we are not calling to sell you anything. We only want the opinions of local residents. The survey should not take more than five to eight minutes to finish, and your responses will be completely confidential.

Question 1 In an average month, how much do you spent on retail purchases including entertainment, online shopping, restaurants and personal services such as hair and beauty, auto-repair, veterinary or other services? a) b) c) d) e) e)

Between $1 and $499 $500-$999 $1,000-$1,4999 $1,500-1,999 $2,000 or greater $0…I didn’t make any retail purchases (Thank and Terminate)

A Question 2 Of the above amount, what percentage would you say is spent on day-to-day purchases such as groceries, gasoline, and pharmaceuticals compared to bigger ticket items, such as clothing, appliances, entertainment, restaurants, and such? _____________ (enter value between 1-100%)

Question 3 Thinking about the estimated total expenditures that you mentioned before, what percentage of those are spent in the Town of Vegreville, online and/or outside of town? a) b) c)

___________ (Local spending - code response between 0 and 100 percent) ___________ (Online spending - code response between 0 and 100 percent) ___________ (Outside Vegreville - code response between 0 and 100 percent)

Prerequisite Study - Retail Gap Analysis MDB Insight – Resident Spending/Economic Leakage Questionnaire: Town of Vegreville

Page 56 Page 1

Question 4 And now I’d like you to tell me what percentage of your retail expenditures are made in the Town of Vegreville, online, or outside of Vegreville for a series of specific categories in and average month. If you didn’t buy anything in a category, just let me know. What percentage of spending on [enter question category – random generation] was done in Vegreville [enter 1 to 100]? How about online [enter 1 to 100]? How about somewhere outside of Vegreville [enter 1 to 100]? [also include “Didn’t purchase anything in this category option”] Convenience Categories a) Grocery/specialty foods/floral i. _____________ (Code response between 0 and 100 percent LOCAL SPENDING) ii. _____________ (Code response between 0 and 100 percent ONLINE SPENDING) iii _____________ (Code response between 0 and 100 percent OUTSIDE VEGREVILLE) iv. Didn’t purchase anything in this category b) c) d) e) f) g)

Alcohol & Tobacco Pharmacy (prescription and over-the-counter) Health and beauty (fitness, barber, beauty salon, spa) Personal/household services (eye glasses/lens, travel agent, post office/courier, dry cleaning/laundry, veterinarian, plumber, etc.)

Health services (doctor, dentist, optometrist) Financial/professional services (banking, insurance, legal, accounting)

Comparison/DSTM Categories h) Clothing, Apparel & Footwear i) Jewellery and accessories j) Home & Personal electronics/appliances k) Home furnishings/accessories l) Hardware and home improvement m) Books and multimedia n) Sporting goods o) Toys and hobbies p) Full service restaurants (provide examples such as Brown’s Social House, Original Joes etc.) q) Fast food restaurants & cafes (provide examples such as Subway, Tim Hortons, Starbucks, etc.) r) Family entertainment & leisure (provide examples such as movie theatres, bowling alleys, etc.) s) Auto, RV & Motorsports Dealerships t) Auto Parts, Maintenance & Accessories

Question 5 [If Q2 is less than 100% ask Q5 otherwise skip to Q6]:

What is the primary reason why you shop outside of Vegreville? (Code one response only) a) b) c) d)

Preference/habit (work in other municipality/work outside the Town of Vegreville) Easy commute to other regional retail centres More attractive/appealing retail experience Better selection/quality/customer service

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e) f) g) h) i) j)

Better prices Close to other amenities/services not available in Vegreville Store not available in Vegreville Bigger store available elsewhere Other regional retail centres heavily advertised/promoted Other Specify: _________

Question 6 [Ask only if Q3 is less than 100%] Is there anything that the Town of Vegreville could do or change to get you to spend more of your retail shopping in the Town of Vegreville?

Question 7 [Ask only if Q3 is less than 100%] What new types of stores, services and/or restaurants would increase your visits and spending in the Town of Vegreville?

Question 8 Where do you and the other employed members of your household work? [Record response for each employed member of the household] Please identify the location of work for each employed household member. a) Town of Vegreville b) City of Edmonton c) Town of Vermilion d) Strathcona County e) Fort-MacMurray f) Other, please specify: [record response] That’s all the questions we have. Thank you for your time. [end survey]

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Q5 Open-Ended Responses – What is the primary reason wy you shop outside of Vegreville?

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I HAVE NOT SHOPPED OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE IN THE PAST YEAR. DON'T REALLY SHOP OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE ONLY WHEN WE CAN'T FIND SOMETHING IN VEGREVILLE HAD CAR INSURANCE DONE IN EDMONTON BEFORE MOVING TO VEGREVILLE MORE VARIETY AND BETTER PRICES AVAILABILITY, SELECTION, PRICES AND OTHER AMENITIES JUST SHOPPING IN VEGREVILLE. WE DO NOT SHOP OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE UNLESS TRAVELLING FOR FAMILY. I DON'T AT THIS POINT. BOUGHT IN ALL FURNITURE AND APPLICIANCES IN RED DEER BECAUSE WE LIVED THERE. BETTER PRICES, EASY ACCESS TO OUTSIDE VEGREVILLE, BETTER AVAILABILITY DO ALL MY SHOPPING IN VEGREVILLE BETTER PRICES, STORES CLOSED EARLY ON WEEKEND. I DO NOT SHOP OUTSIDE TOWN DOES NOT SUPPORT ME ALL OF THE ABOVE. I LIKE TO WORK ALOT OUT OF TOWN CANT LEAVE TOWN , WHEELCHAIR PERSON SELECTION AND THE AVAILABILITY ALREADY OUTSIDE I COMMUTE TO THE CITY BIGGER SELECTION COSTCO, THE SAVINGS OF THE BULK BUY, ALSO THE QUALITY OF THE MAKEUP AND PRODUCTS THAT I BUY. SPECIALTY ITEMS THAT DON'T HAVE HERE. BECAUSE I WORK OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE THE SPECIFIC THING VARIETY I AM LOOKING FOR IS NOT AVAILABLE IN VEGREVILLE I DON'T SHOP OUTSIDE OF VEGREVILLE IT HAS TO BE SOMETHING VERY SPECIAL TO SHOP OUTSIDE. IT TAKES AN HOUR TO GO EDMONTON THE MOVIE THEATRE HERE IS HORRIBLE, RESTAURANTS AREN'T VERY GOOD, THE TOWN IS DEAD AND LACKING ENTERTAINMENT. ONLY SHOP IN VEGREVILLE IF WE HAPPEN TO BE IN EDMONTON OR SHERWOOD PARK WE WOULD STOP AT A STORE BUT WE DON'T GO THERE SPECIFICALLY FOR ANY REASON. RARELY APPLIES

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Q6 Open-Ended Responses – Is there anything that the Town of Vegreville could do or change to get you to spend more of your retail shopping in the Town of Vegreville?

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IF THEY HAD GOOD SHOE AND CLOTHING SHOPS. PIZZA PLACE, NO ELECTRONICS, HAVE ONLY WALMART, NO MUCH SELECTION I THINK WE SPENT ENOUGH. NOT A SELECTION OF DEPARTMENT STORES BETTER CLOTHING STORES MORE VARIETY ON ALL TYPES OF STORES. NOT REALLY I DON'T BUY IN VEGREVILLE BECAUSE ITS HARD TO RETURN THE MERCHANDISE. BUILD A COSTCO. MORE SELECTION ON CLOTHING. YES WE NEED A SHOE STORE AND NICER CLOTHING BETTER SELECTION. MORE PLACES LIKE NO FRILLS BECAUSE THE PRICES ARE LOWER. PLACES THAT CARRY MORE CLOTHING. IF THEY HAD THINGS AVAILABLE I WOULD BE QUITE HAPPY TO SPEND ALL MY MONEY HERE. A SHOE STORE. CLOTHING FOR MY SIZE. THE VEHICLES I DRIVE DO NOT HAVE REPRESENTATION IN TOWN. WATCH THE PRICES, NOBODY WANTS TO SPEND $100 ON PRODUCTS JUST CONTINUE TO ATTRACT RETAILERS. WE NEED FURNITURE SHOPS, JEWELLERY SHOPS , AND SPECIALTY SHOP. EASIER TO RETURN MERCHANDISE IN OTHER TOWNS. THEY NEED A BETTER SELECTION FOR LADIES CLOTHING. THEY NEED TO TRY TO BRING IN BETTER HEALTHIER ESTABLISHMENTS. BETTER SELECTION, MORE STORES, GOOD PRICING THEY WOULD HAVE TO BRING IN SHOE AND CLOTHING STORES. THE TOWN DOES NOT SUPPORT NEW BUSINESS. THEY DON'T BRING A VARIETY OF STORES; BETTER QUALITY. BETTER QUALITY ADULT CLOTHING STORES. BED AND BATH SHOP. MAYBE HAVING A FEW MORE SPECIAL DOCTORS, PRIVATE SCHOOL. THINGS TO DRAW FAMILIES INTO TOWN. MORE FAMILY ORIENTED AND FAMILY FRIENDLY SERVICES. BETTER HOSPITAL. RECREATIONAL CENTERS FOR SPORTING WOMEN'S CLOTHING AND A GOOD SHOE STORE AND BRING IN M&M PACKAGED FOOD STORE. IF THEY CAN CONTINUE ON THEIR PATH, THEY HAVE TO KEEP TRYING WITH MID-RANGE AND HIGHER END VERSUS DOLLARAMA, THERE ARE ENOUGH DEMOGRAPHICS TO SUPPORT MID-RANGE TYPES OF STORES. I'D LOVE TO HAVE A BAKERY. ZERO CLOTHING, SHOES STORES, ONLY WALMART EXITS PHARMACIES CLOSE EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND SUPPLY A BETTER CLIMATE FOR SMALL BUSINESSES SMALL BUSINESSES MORE LIKELY TO OPEN IF THEY RECEIVED PROPERTY TAX BREAKS. RESEARCHING INTO THE MARKET AND ATTRACTING BUSINESSES ACCORDINGLY. LOCAL BUSINESS MUST BE SUPPORTIVE OF RESIDENCE, BRING IN MORE SERVICES LIKE BETTER SELECTION OF PRODUCTS, MORE FAST FOODS, CANADIAN TIRE ADVERTISED PRODUCTS BUT THEY DON'T HAVE THE ITEMS BIGGER STORE THAT DIFFERENT VARIETIES MORE THAN WALMART GOOD STORES.

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IF WE HAD A FURNITURE STORE, BETTER HARDWARE STORES LIKE A LUMBER YARD PREFERABLY DECENT LUMBER YARD. SUPPORT ME VARIES - SOMETIMES WE NEED TO GET AWAY. THERE ARE JUST A LOT OF THINGS THAT AREN'T HERE. CERTAIN BRANDS THEY DON'T CARRY IN THE GROCERY STORES. ELECTRONIC BRANDS ARE LIMITED. 3 CAR DEALERSHIPS IN TOWN, NO JAPANESE ONES. THEY WOULD HAVE TO HAVE MORE STORES, MORE VARIETY. I WOULD BASICALLY SAY A CLOTHING STORE SUCH AS H&M. A GOOD CHINESE RESTAURANT. THE KEG. A DRIVING RANGE FOR THE GOLF COURSE. +SIZE CLOTHING STORES. HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH IN VEGREVILLE BUT NEED MORE RESTAURANTS I DON'T THINK WHATEVER ELSE THEY COULD OFFER. CLOTHING STORES. NOT TOO MUCH CHOICE IN QUALITY RESTAURANTS WINNERS, MARSHALS, RETAIL, LIKE A BIG LUMBER STORE LIKE LOWES, OR HOME DEPOT THEY CAN GIVE INCENTIVES TO GIVE SMALL BUSINESS TO START MORE BUSINESSES IN TOWN WE NEED A FABRIC STORE. WE NEED A CLOTHING STORE. MORE RESTAURANTS BETTER CLOTHE STORES JUST ABOUT HAVING THE PRODUCTS IN STOCK TYPE FOR REPAIRS AND SELECTION. MORE SELECTION OF ENTERTAINMENT AND RESTAURANTS. NO SUITS STORE, CLOTHES OF DIFFERENT VARIETIES MORE INVESTORS WITH MORE BUSINESS. PUT IN A GOOD PET SHOP AND DOG GROOMERS CLOTHING STORES FOR CHILDREN AND ADULTS ALIKE INCLUDING SHOES, HIGHER QUALITY IN THERE EVERYDAY CLOTHING INCLUDING SPORTING GOODS NO MUCH FOOTWEAR STORES, PROPER CLOTHING STORES GET SOME BETTER KNOWN CLOTHING STORES, SOMETHING WITH A NAME, NOT JUST SOMEBODY HERE OPENING A STORE AND SELLING WHATEVER THEY WANT. REDUCE GROW, BRING IN MORE BUSINESSES. THEY HAVE A GOOD VARI THE THING THAT BOTHERS ME ABOUT VEGREVILLE. NOT ENOUGH QUALIFIED CLERKS IN THE STORES. MOST OF THE TIME CLERKS ARE NOT WELL INFORMED ABOUT THE PRODUCTS. WOMEN'S CLOTHING STORE AND ENTERTAINMENT. IT'S PRETTY ADEQUATE I THINK PROBABLY THE SELECTION OF CLOTHING IS VERY LIMITED NO CLOTHING, SHOES STORES (SMALL SIZES), MORE SPORTS STORES. I DO A LOT OF SPORTS STUFF. THERE IS NO REALLY LIKE A SPORTS STORE HERE. A TOWN OF THIS SIZE WILL NOT BRING LIKE COSTCO TO TOWN OR OLD NAVY CLOTHING STORE. IF THEY HAD STORES THAT WE CURRENTLY DRIVE TO SHOP AT IN EDMONTON. A GOOD CLOTHING STORE. ATTRACT MORE BUSINESS. WITH MORE BUSINESSES, OTHERWISE PEOPLE WOULD NOT BE GOING TO OUT. I WOULD LOVE TO SHOP LOCAL AND NOT HAVE TO DRIVE WHICH IS UNFORTUNATE.

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BRINGING MORE STORES GET BIGGER BUSINESSES TO COME IN WE NEED ANOTHER LUMBER YARD AND HARDWARE STORE, ALSO RECREATION FOR KIDS, THERE'S NOT ENOUGH OF THAT. MAY BE A NEW MOVIE THEATRE. DON'T HAVE BIG ENOUGH POPULATION TO ACCESS PLACES TO SHOP. IF WE HAD LOCAL CLOTHING, SHOES, BABY GEAR. SOME OF THE BIG RETAIL STORES WE CANNOT FIND. BRING SEVEN ELEVEN OR MAX. IT'S BASICALLY A FACT OF PRICES. BUILD MORE STORES TRANSIT SERVICE. TAXI SERVICE IS BUSY AND IT SHUTS DOWN AT 11 AT NIGHT. THERE IS A LARGE POPULATION HERE THAT WALKS SO WE NEED TRANSPORTATION. BETTER CUSTOMER SERVICE HAVING BIGGER STORES. DIVERSE RESTAURANTS. HEALTHIER CHOICES. MORE OPTIONS. BRING IN MORE BUSINESSES CLOTHING BRING US SOME STORES LIKE OLD NAVY MORE RESOURCES AROUND FASHION AND HARDWARE. DEFINITELY NEED MORE VARIETY LIKE RESTAURANTS MAINLY. HAVE A DIFFERENT STORE RATHER THAN THE BIG ONES HAVE MORE STORES AVAILABLE. SPECIALITY STORES SUCH AS SPORTING GOODS, HOBBIES AND CRAFTS.

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