No playbook, but exciting times

When I opened the TMM Better Business Conference recently, I reflected on my 20-plus years covering the mortgage advice sector.

It’s something of an understatement to say a lot has happened in that time.

Like the housing market, mortgage advice goes in cycles. The trouble at the moment, as economist Tony Alexander pointed out, is that the “normal” cycles don’t exist.

We are in a new period where there is no playbook. Making economic predictions is - and these are not his words - a bit of a mug’s game.

For mortgage advisers, the most recent period of time has arguably been one of the toughest for a while, especially if the net is cast back to the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown. But it’s not all doom and gloom.

Amongst the many take-outs from conference was a view that the first part of this year will probably continue to be difficult, but later in 2023 the clouds may lift a little.

Some of the pain from interest-rate rises may diminish.

By then the full licensing regime for advisers will be operational, and we will have a better sense of how it works.

There may well be some further relief from the unpopular CCCFA regime. Imagine that.

A feeling is emerging that we are nearer to the peak of the interest-rate cycle than what organisations like the Reserve Bank are predicting.

While there is not likely to be a rapid clawback from the steep ascent of recent years, there could well be a ceiling. With half of all borrowers due to refinance this year, that is welcome news to them.

Coming back to the conference, the mood amongst advisers was remarkably robust.

Deal volumes are down and it is taking more time to get them across the line. But there are deals to do, especially as mortgage advisers grab a bigger bite of the bank lending pie.

One of the things which sets the TMM Better Business Conference apart, compared to other events, is that it is 100% mortgage focused. None of this insurance or investment stuff.

Plus, it is an industry conference for all advisers - rather than the normal dealer-group conference.

We plan to run the next one in February next year. If you want to be kept in the loop with updates, please drop an email to events@tmmonline.nz

Talking about change, it feels as though the mortgage market is seeing new leaders emerging. One area in which this seems most obvious is the dealer-group space. I’ve alluded to it before: it looks like the status quo, which has existed for some time now, may well be facing some challenges.

Having choice is good for advisers, and new groups bring new ideas and technology. Exciting times.

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