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Reading the insights covered in this book should prove useful both to academics engaging in geopolitical studies and to practitioners having to manage changes in global relations every day in their job, whether they are in the private or the public sector, civilian or military. Asia-Pacific countries may seem far from us in geographical terms, but they have never been closer to us in economic terms, or more significant to our shared fate.
J. Argumosa Pila / A. Garofali Acosta M. Torres Jarrín Editors
In this ever-changing geopolitical landscape, the Asia-Pacific region acquires transcendental strategic importance as a consequence of its powerful economic exchange coupled with the re-emergence of China. This region, characterized among other things, by its heterogeneity, is interconnected by strong geopolitical, strategic, and economic interests.
Emerging Markets & Emerging Powers
During the last twenty years, the geopolitical transformation has been profound. Without a doubt, a historical cycle is ending and another one - of which almost everything is unknown and in which the forecasts are especially risky - is beginning. The emergence of new world economic powers has generated a multipolar context and has reordered the centers of power.
THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER
This book is the result of a research work developed within the framework of the Chair of Strategic Studies of the European Institute of International Studies.
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THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER Emerging Markets & Emerging Powers
Editors: JESÚS R. ARGUMOSA PILA ALEJANDRO GAROFALI ACOSTA MARIO TORRES JARRÍN
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THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER Emerging Markets & Emerging Powers
COMITÉ CIENTÍFICO DE LA EDITORIAL TIRANT HUMANIDADES Manuel Asensi Pérez
Catedrático de Teoría de la Literatura y de la Literatura Comparada Universitat de València
Ramón Cotarelo
Catedrático de Ciencia Política y de la Administración de la Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociología de la Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
Mª Teresa Echenique Elizondo Catedrática de Lengua Española Universitat de València
Juan Manuel Fernández Soria
Catedrático de Teoría e Historia de la Educación Universitat de València
Pablo Oñate Rubalcaba
Catedrático de Ciencia Política y de la Administración Universitat de València
Joan Romero
Catedrático de Geografía Humana Universitat de València
Juan José Tamayo
Director de la Cátedra de Teología y Ciencias de las Religiones Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Procedimiento de selección de originales, ver página web: www.tirant.net/index.php/editorial/procedimiento-de-seleccion-de-originales
THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER Emerging Markets & Emerging Powers
JESÚS R. ARGUMOSA PILA ALEJANDRO GAROFALI ACOSTA MARIO TORRES JARRÍN Editors
tirant humanidades Valencia, 2021
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Authors Javier Solana Xulio Rios Juan José Ramirez Bonilla Kristin Vekasi Arturo Pérez Martínez Jesus Rafael Argumosa Pila Shaun Riordan Cátia Miriam Costa Ricardo Martínez Isidoro Anna Kirieeva Alexey Kupriyanov Henrique Altemani de Oliveira Danielle Silva Ramos Becard Mario Torres Jarrín Alejandro Garofali Acosta George Yeo Gonzalo Ortiz Diez-Tortosa
ÍNDEX PROLOGUE. THE RE-EMERGENCE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC......... 13 Javier Solana
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................... 17 Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila Alejandro Garofali Acosta Mario Torres Jarrín
Chapter 1
THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE SILK ROAD.. 21 Xulio Rios
Chapter 2
THE ROLE OF JAPAN IN THE NEW ASIAN GEO-ECONOMIC CONFIGURATION................................................................................. 51 Juan José Ramirez Bonilla
Chapter 3
THE NORTH KOREAN CONFLICT AND THE GEOESTRATEGIC EQUILIBRIUM IN NORTHEAST ASIA............................................ 77 Kristin Vekasi
Chapter 4
THE SO-CALLED RIVALRY BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA IN THE NEW ASIAN GEOPOLITICS...................................................... 99 Arturo Pérez Martínez
Chapter 5
THE IMPACT ON REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY OF CHINESE ASPIRATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.. 117 Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila
Chapter 6
PERSPECTIVES OF THE STRATEGIC COLLABORATION BETWEEN CHINA AND RUSSIA IN CENTRAL ASIA...................... 137 Shaun Riordan
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Index
Chapter 7
THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION FUTURE: INDIA AND PAKISTAN AS NEW MEMBERS................................. 155 Catia Mariam Costa
Chapter 8
THE FUTURE OF THE AFGHANISTAN CONFLICT......................... 173 Ricardo Martínez Isidoro
Chapter 9
INDIA AND CHINA IN SOUTH ASIA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN REGION: ROLES, STRATEGIES AND COMPETITION.............. 195 Anna Kireeva Alexey Kupriyanov
Chapter 10
THE POLITICAL AND STRATEGIC SITUATION OF THE ASEAN AND THE ACTIVITIES OF CHINA IN THE REGION................. 227 Henrique Altemani de Oliveira Danielly Silva Ramos
Chapter 11
INDO-PACIFIC REGION: A POLITICAL CONCEPT OR A GEOPOLITICAL REALITY?.......................................................................... 249 Mario Torres Jarrin
Chapter 12
THE FUTURE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION FORUM (APEC) AMID GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES.. 265 Alejandro Garofali Acosta
Chapter 13
SINGAPORE AND THE WORLD.............................................................. 293 George Yeo
Chapter 14
AUSTRALIA AND THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION. ITS STRATEGIC RELEVANCE.................................................................................... 307 Gonzalo Ortíz Diez-Tortosa
Index
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CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................. 327 Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila Alejandro Garofali Acosta Mario Torres Jarrín
ABOUT THE AUTHORS............................................................................. 339
PROLOGUE THE RE-EMERGENCE OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC Javier Solana In recent decades, countless headlines have been dedicated to the emergence of Asian powers. In the 1980s, Japan was poised to overtake the U.S. in wealth and technology. In the 1990s, the spotlight turned to the four “Asian tigers”: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. And the 21st century has been mostly about China’s rise, featuring a series of milestones, such as its WTO accession in 2001 and its spectacular international display in the 2008 Olympics. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis has only intensified the debate on the geopolitical implications of China’s rapid development. It is worth underlining, however, that Asian powers are hardly newcomers to the centre of the global stage. In fact, the Asia-Pacific should be thought of as a re-emerging region. Two of the largest empires in human history were Asia-centric: the Mongol Empire and the Qing Dynasty. And the Second World War was as much an Allied victory against Japanese imperial ambitions in Asia and the Pacific as it was against fascism in Europe. After all, this is the reason why China secured a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. Asia’s historical pre-eminence is overwhelming, as macroeconomic indicators demonstrate. In the year 1500, China and India accounted for around 30 per cent of global GDP each, while Europe lagged well behind, with most of its inhabitants living in penury. This trend only reversed in the 19th century, which started off with European industrialisation and finished with colonial scrambles in Africa and Asia. Today, despite not having fully made up for the time lost, the Asian continent produces around half of global GDP.
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Furthermore, three out of every five humans on the planet live in the Asia-Pacific region. This proportion is bound to fall by 2050, due to Africa’s demographic growth and the relative stagnation of the Asia-Pacific: the share of population in the region above the age of 60 is set to roughly double, as a result of falling birth rates and greater longevity. Population ageing and income inequality tend to be by-products of economic booms, as the experience of many countries in the region shows, but they can give rise to significant challenges if left unaddressed. Thus, increasing societal resilience, ensuring shared prosperity and furthering political empowerment should all rank among the top priorities for Asia-Pacific nations in the decades to come. Climate change, disproportionately affecting Pacific islands and Southeast Asia, will also need to be tackled. Regional integration can be a useful tool to address this and many other common problems. To be sure, there is a wide range of socioeconomic systems present in the region, and enormous disparities in levels of development. But ASEAN is living proof that these differences do not preclude close cooperation. The Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership are showing that, not without its problems, China is quickly becoming the new hub for regional relations. Beyond China, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is going ahead even after the U.S. decided to withdraw. Clearly, there is enough political will to fill the gap left by Washington’s baffling choice to turn away from multilateralism in the region —and indeed in the entire world. The Asia-Pacific still faces security and humanitarian challenges that are worthy of our attention, from Afghanistan to the Sino-Indian border clashes, passing by nuclear proliferation, the overall threat of the North Korean totalitarian regime, heightened tensions in the South China Sea, and the increasingly disturbing accounts coming out of Myanmar and China on the treatment of the Rohingya and the Uyghurs, respectively.
Prologue
15
Despite all of the above, there are ample grounds for optimism. Even if the Asia-Pacific region was the first to face the threat posed by the novel coronavirus, it is by far the one that has fared the best, at least at the time of writing. Infections and deaths per capita have been remarkably low in countries like China, Vietnam, and South Korea, to name a few. Their different political systems, weather or levels of development seem to have played little role, while their experience with SARS and MERS probably has. This volume puts together a breadth of knowledge on the current situation in the region and the issues it will be facing in the near future. As Asia evolves, so does the rest of the globe. The pandemic is probably accelerating the shift towards a world order in which Asia gets a bigger say —a shift that was already well under way. Reading the insights covered in this book should prove useful both to academics engaging in geopolitical studies, and to practitioners having to manage changes in global relations every day in their job, whether they are in the private or the public sector, civilian or military. Asia-Pacific countries may seem far from us in geographical terms, but they have never been closer to us in economic terms, or more significant to our shared fate. I have no doubt that these contributions will provide readers with an added value in their understanding of international affairs, and hope that the volume will create a fruitful debate leading to the enhancement of our relations with the Asia-Pacific region, which is fast regaining the global standing it enjoyed through most of human history.
1
INTRODUCTION*1 Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila Alejandro Garofali Acosta Mario Torres Jarrín
In the year 1997 the American author Zbigniew Brzezinski stated in his book The Grand Chessboard that, for the first time ever, a non-Eurasian power has emerged not only as a key arbiter of Eurasian power relations but also as the world’s paramount power. He added that the geostrategic goal for the United States was to prevent the emergence of a Eurasian power capable of dominating Eurasia and challenging the United States. It is true that we were in a time of unilaterality with the United States as the undisputed leader. During the last twenty years the geopolitical transformation has been profound. Without a doubt, a historical cycle is ending and another one —of which almost everything is unknown and in which the forecasts are especially risky— is beginning. The emergence of new world economic powers has generated a multipolar context and has reordered the centers of power in which international relations are developed. In this context, some of the countries with emerging economies will have a more active role. The main centers of power at the present and in the foreseeable future are the United States, which maintains a hegemonic presence
1
*
This book is the result of research work developed within the framework of the Chair of Strategic Studies of the European Institute of International Studies. Research project period 2017-2019. This edition closed on October 30, 2020. The data, observations and arguments in this book refer to the phase until then. The ideas and arguments expressed in each chapter are the sole responsibility of the author/s and do not necessarily reflect the position of the EIIS, publisher or editors.
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Jesús Rafael Argumosa Pila, Alejandro Garofali Acosta and Mario Torres Jarrín
fundamentally in the military field; China, which has positioned itself as a key player in the Asia-Pacific economic field; Russia, which is reclaiming its traditional zones of influence; and the E.U. as an economic power in spite of still being conditioned by its leadershipcapacity. In a second order are Japan, which has returned to the international arena, and India, by consolidating its leadership in the Indo-Pacific region. In East and Southeast Asia, economic and commercial protagonism is being piloted by China, and in the Middle East, strategic leadership is carried out by Russia. The United States’ policies of isolationism, protectionism and nationalism carried out under the presidency of Donald Trump are enabling a shift in international geopolitical leadership. The United States’ domination of economics and the world security agenda during the past 70 years is little by little moving towards rival great powers. In this ever-changing geopolitical landscape, the Asia-Pacific region acquires a transcendental strategic importance as a consequence of its powerful economic development coupled with the reemergence of a China which has already begun to recover and reclaim its historical space, considering humanity as a whole. This region, which is characterized, among other things, by its heterogeneity, is interconnected through strong geopolitical, strategic, and economic interests. Starting from the premise that the first steps are already being taken in the multipolar system, it seems logical to assume there is a need to establish the appropriate balance of power both at the regional level, in which China occupies a predominant position, and at the international level, where the responsibility falls on all the major centers of power which try to operate under the auspices of the United Nations. Three key questions arise in the face of this new geopolitical reality. Will the Asia-Pacific region gain a relevance like that of the transatlantic in the global geopolitics of the first third of the 21st century? Will this region be able to form a united and compact block to be able to act as a single entity in the new world order that is approaching?
Introduction
19
Will China have the ability required to lead the group of countries in the region and, by serving a common interest, use its powerful Belt and Road Initiative as a spearhead? The purpose of this book is to analyze the Asia-Pacific environment and its foreseeable influence on a new world order with its different factors. This analysis extends from the configuration of an emerging geopolitical entity, without a defined name, to the development and consolidation of collective organizations of various kinds, including the evolution of its main strategic actors and the current and future states of the most important conflicts in the area. To this end, and in light of the considerations above, the book has been organized in different chapters with their corresponding authors. Key to the general structure of each chapter, after the corresponding analysis the author ends with some final conclusions that give perspective on developments through the first third of this century. The common thread will be the increasingly urgent need for an international geopolitical system with norms and rules that are solid, efficient and credible and which are accepted by the entire global community and where geostrategy in its conception of the regional and international projection of moderate power enjoys a special significance. COVID-19 has not been considered in this book since most of the Chapters were written before March of this year. However, an analysis of the impact that the Coronavirus causes in the future of the Asia Pacific region in the new world order can take as a reference the studies and conclusions developed in the different Chapters in this book. We do not want to end without thanking the generous and altruistic collaboration of all the authors who have participated in this book. With their talent, experience, and creativity, ranging from a former minister, ambassadors and generals to academics and university professors, have provided enriching insight into the Asia Pacific entity in the coming new world order.