AFN Real Estate Guide - March 2021

REAL ESTATE

Real Estate Guide Soaring home equity keeping inventory tight, expert says

BY PAUL MARYNIAK AFN Executive Editor

A

nxious homebuyers hoping to see a deluge of foreclosures springing from the pandemic’s impact on the economy and loading the Valley market with short sales should think again.

It’s more than unlikely that the Valley’s housing scene will see a flood of for-sale homes and plummeting prices that some reports in 2011-13 purported, says the Cromford Report, the leading tracker of Valley housing scenes in the Phoenix Metro area.

That’s primarily because equity has ballooned, making it less likely owners will simply walk away from homes as they did more than 10 years ago.

Noting the inventory of homes this month is 60 percent below that of March 2020, Cromford reported a slight downward trend in demand but said “that really does not make much difference when supply is this scarce.”

“Even if demand dropped well below normal, we would still have multiple offers for most listings,” it continued,

see MARKET page RE2

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See 66 SeePage Page

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REAL ESTATE

AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS | MARCH 17, 2021

Buyers, sellers paying closer attention to appraisals

BY BEN GOTTLIEB AFN Guest Writer

O

ne impetus for the housing debacle that triggered the Great Recession over a decade ago was the ease of obtaining financing to purchase a home.

It was easy to have an appraiser support the contract price of a home – thereby enabling the buyer to obtain his or her loan needed to purchase the home – with minimal out-of-pocket cash needed to make the purchase.

All of that changed after the Great Recession.

Among other things, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct enacted rules to make the home appraisal process more neutral and

MARKET from page re1

“Multiple offers are the mechanism that drives prices up,” it said. “One offer per listing represents stability. No offers tend to drive prices down. We would need about seven times the current supply to get back somewhere close to normality.”

Cromford also said something most other real estate experts agree on – the end of mortgage assistance by federal pandemic relief money will likely not lead to massive foreclosures and flood the market with resales.

“While we can imagine a noticeable increase in supply taking place,” it said, “it is very unlikely to reach the levels that would dramatically change the balance in the Greater Phoenix market.”

“There was no significant shadow inventory” in 2011-13, Cromford said, “and there is no huge wave of distressed homes waiting to hit the market now.”

Warning that buyers should “not be taken in by these myths,” Cromford said the sequence of the housing bubble’s collapse needs to be examined.

“Prices started to fall from July 2006 onward due to supply becoming much stronger than demand,” it said. “The fall in prices meant recent buyers had zero or negative equity from 2007 onwards, loosening their motivation to keep up their mortgage payments.”

As a result, “a huge wave of bank-owned properties hit the market in 2008 and

objective for conforming loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – lenders or third-party companies contact and compensate appraisers.

In today’s real estate climate, this has resulted in many appraisal reports not supporting the contract price.

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, housing prices in Arizona – and elsewhere – have soared.

Most people have likely heard or read by now the reasons provided by housing experts and economists for the rapid ascent: (1) record low interest rates; (2) extremely low inventory; (3) unique conditions caused by the pandemic forcing homeowners to spend more time in their homes; (4) expansive fiscal stimulus; and (5) an overall rising stock market.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Pow-

ell has recently stated that he expects housing prices to continue to inflate in the short-term but views any inflation as a temporary condition primarily caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the current real estate climate, a bad appraisal can mean the difference between buying your dream home or staying put.

Many housing transactions involve “bidding wars” among various prospective buyers – with some buyers willing to offer a “premium” in order to win the contract. In today’s real estate world, appraisers do not care whether there was a bidding war, or whether the buyer – knowingly or unknowingly – offered a premium for the home.

Instead, the appraiser will focus on similar recent home sales in close proximity to the subject home.

Of the priciest, if not the priciest, homes on the Ahwatukee market is this 10,519-squarefoot home on South Equestrian Trail. Built in 1995, it’s priced at $3.4 million.

(Special to AFN)

2009, adding to the supply problem” that was exacerbated by a major increase in new-home construction.

“The lack of equity meant many homes listed in 2008 through 2011 were short sales,” Cromford noted. “Investors pounced on the bank-owned homes and short sales from 2009 onwards, bringing the drop in prices to a complete halt by 2011.”

Currently, it said, “We have far too little supply, not far too much. Note that the excess supply in 2006 was the primary problem that burst the bubble. The foreclosures came later and were an effect, not a cause, of the bubble bursting.”

Stressing that “foreclosures did not cause the housing crash” and “were a consequence of the excess supply of 2006,”

Cromford said this year has opened “a period of extreme appreciation.”

It said square-foot prices rose 5 percent in just four weeks last month” and sales are up 7.4 percent over a year ago while prices have climbed 23.1 percent.

“We expect to see dollar volume hit new records during the second quarter,” it predicted, “along with all of the pricing metrics.”

Meanwhile, Realtor.com reported that homebuyers have been dealt another setback – cheap loans apparently are disappearing.

Mortgage rates crossed the 3 percent threshold for the first time since July 2020, according to Freddie Mac. “The era of mortgage rates under 3% is likely behind us,” said Realtor.com senior

On occasion, the appraiser will introduce a subject element into his or her appraisal report – i.e., the value the appraiser tacks on for a desired view or pool or landscape.

Thus, the conditions in today’s housing market are ripe for home transactions that “do not appraise” – meaning, the appraisal comes up short of the contract price.

This can present a significant issue for the buyer, as the lender is only willing to lend up to a certain amount based on the appraised value.

If the appraised value comes up short, that means the buyer must come out of pocket for the additional funds to compensate for having qualified for a lesser loan amount.

Many buyers do not have the extra funds

see GOTTLIEB page RE5

economist George Ratiu. “For first-time buyers, the market is looking a lot more challenging. The current trajectory of interest rates is putting a damper on their budgets and making it more expensive to afford a home.”

Realtor.com said almost 20 percent of first-time buyers spent more than a year shopping for a home due to the high prices and lack of inventory as the coronavirus pandemic and low mortgage rates pushed more would-be buyers into the market.

“As a result of the low rates and the pandemic, the number of homes for sale plummeted 49 percent compared with February of last year,” the website said.

“That’s particularly bad as the nation was already in the throes of a severe housing shortage a year ago.”

The low supply of homes for sale, coupled with high demand, has resulted in median home list prices rising 14% in February compared with the previous year, according to Realtor.com.

“For sellers, the rising mortgage rates can motivate them to list their homes sooner,” Ratiu said. “There are still plenty of buyers in the market and many of these buyers are getting squeezed by rising rates.”

But he added that rates are still low even if they have crept above 3 percent.

“Home sellers and home buyers have gotten really used to extremely low rates,” he said, saying rates in the 3-3.4 percent range “remain extremely affordable by historical standards.” 

MARCH 17, 2021 | AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS

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In the buy-rent debate, Phoenix in middle

Leading Luxury Home Experts

highest we have ever recorded. The third option of being homeless is not very attractive. So I think we are going to see a large increase in the number of people taking the fourth option - sharing with friends or relatives,” it continued, adding: “This seems to be the only practical solution to keep the cost of shelter down. This will build up latent demand for the longer term, as many of these people will have ambitions to create their own independent household when they can afford to.

“For those who are drawing parallels with 2005, I would point out that rents FELL 6 percent between March 2004 and March 2005. This is because there were huge quantities of vacant homes that had been bought by speculators with nobody available to live in them. In those days, the pace of home building had exceeded the rate of population increase – the opposite of the situation today.”

The economics team at Realtor.com looked at the 50 largest metros, ranked by the number of households, to put together the report.

It compared the monthly cost of buying a home with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at each city’s median listing price, including taxes and insurance, against the monthly rent for two- to four-bedroom apartments and houses in the area.

Then the team ranked those numbers to see how they stacked up to local incomes.

Metro areas typically include a city and smaller nearby municipalities.

Cities in the Midwest and South tend to offer cheaper homes and a lower cost of living than coastal California and other big tech hubs like Austin, Texas, and Seattle.

That’s because land is often cheaper and more abundant, construction is less expensive, zoning regulations are often fewer, plus some cities just don’t have as much demand for housing.

“Some of these, they’re Rust Belt markets. Each one of these markets has a net population loss, so that, of course, is going to create an abundance of supply and lower demand than a place that has a net

see RENT page RE5

2016 & 2017 BREA Award for Most Sales in Ahwatukee!

AHWATUKEE CUSTOM ESTATES

population gain,” said James Wise, host of HoltonWiseTV. And yet overall, the number of places where it makes more sense to rent is higher. Looking at the 50 largest metros, the monthly cost to purchase a median home in January 2021 was $1,988, compared with the median monthly rent of $1,727.

But notoriously expensive California and other West Coast metros lead the list of the highest-priced cities where, financially, it makes more sense to rent because the monthly cost of a mortgage far exceeds the median rent. These places also tend to have incomparable natural beauty and outdoor access and are popular vacation destinations. Two had median list prices over $1 million.

These more expensive markets tend to have a higher share of well-paying (often tech) jobs occupied by a high concentration of young professionals who have plenty of cash to spend.

“Wherever there are high-paying jobs and employers supporting them, you’re beginning to see higher-end rental com-

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needed to make up the shortfall.

Under the standard Arizona Association of Realtors’ purchase contract in Arizona, the buyer has five days after notice of the appraised value to cancel the contract and receive back a refund of the earnest money.

In today’s market, the seller may insist that the buyer waive the contingency provision at the outset.

This means that the buyer would forfeit the earnest money if the home did not appraise and the buyer was forced to cancel the contract.

It is also worth noting that the buyer and seller may have other options after receiving an appraisal report that the buyer or seller disagrees with. First, the parties can ask the appraiser to reconsider – for instance, perhaps the appraiser missed something important such as an expensive and valuable upgrade or made a mistake on the square footage of the property.

Second, the parties can request that the lender obtain a second appraisal. Third,

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GOTTLIEB from page RE2

the parties can negotiate a new sales price during the five-day period set forth in the appraisal contingency clause.

In all cases, it is important to consult with a qualified real estate professional about your options.

Chandler resident Ben Gottlieb and Ahwatukee resident Patrick MacQueen are partners and co-founders of MacQueen and Gottlieb PLC, the state’s top real estate law �irm. Reach Ben at 602533-2840 or email him at ben@mandglawgroup.com. 

#1 Agent in Ahwatukee Closed Volume 2019

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plexes that can start at $3,500,” said Ramesh Rao, an agent based in Silicon Valley.

“When these people start looking at buying a median price home, their total cost toward any kind of roof over their head goes up two times.”

But for many of these folks, Rao says, it just feels better to pay $3,500 toward equity than give it to someone else. Throw in the tax savings and potential appreciation, that’s what keeps people buying these pricey places despite the monthly math.

So where are the best places to buy a home, or to rent one?

The top 10 metros to buy a home are Cleveland, at $198,000; Chicago, $338,000; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, $245,000; Riverside, California; $485,000; Miami, $400,000; New Orleans, $320,000; Baltimore, $325,000; Tampa, $302,000; Hartford, Connecticut, $303,000; and Detroit, $265,000.

Renting is the better option in San Jose, California, $1.2 million; Austin, $460,000; Sacramento, California, $599,000; Seattle, $665,000; San Francisco, $990,000; Los Angeles, $1.2 million; San Diego, $850,000; Portland, $525,000; Oklahoma City, $278,000; and Richmond, Virginia, $388,000. 

COMING SOON

T

o rent or to buy? That is the question these days in the Valley.

And the official website for the nation’s largest Realtors group last week said that Phoenix straddles both sides of the question.

“Since the coronavirus pandemic took the shine off expensive (and cramped!) urban living, rents have tanked in some of the nation’s top cities,” Realtor.com reported. “But when it comes to whether it makes more financial sense to buy a home or rent one, it turns out that, in many cases, buying is still your best bet.”

In more than 15 of the 50 largest metros, buying a home was as or more affordable than renting in January 2021, according to Realtor.com. That was up from 13 markets before the pandemic.

And, on top of that, there are several “borderline” cities where the monthly cost of buying a home is within 5 percent of the cost of the local median rent.

And that’s where Phoenix sits in the report.

Of nine metro areas, Phoenix’s $455,000 cost of buying a home – including price and related costs – was ahead of Atlanta, Orlando, Washington, D.C., and Birmingham, Alabama, in affordability, but behind Buffalo, Memphis, Las Vegas and Milwaukee.

“Even with the historic growth in home prices over the past year, the monthly cost of buying a home in many cities across the United States hasn’t changed – mostly because of incredibly low interest rates that dropped to 2.88 percent in January,” the report noted.

But the Cromford Report, the leading tracker of Valley housing prices and trends, doesn’t see a debate between renting and owning – although it foresees a new trend in the future.

“For anybody who thinks homes are getting too expensive to buy, I would ask - what are the alternatives?” it said earlier this month.

“Rents in Greater Phoenix have risen from an average of $1.01 per sq. ft. per month to $1.22 per sq. ft. per month over the last year. That is a 21 percent rise - the

RENT from page RE4

COMING SOON

AFN NEWS STAFF

REAL ESTATE

MARCH 03, 2021 | AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS

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AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS | MARCH 03, 2021

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AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS | MARCH 17, 2021

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SPO OTLIGHT home

Circle G at Riggs Ranch

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Three custom iron doors lead to massive covered patio with pavers, built-in barbeque, heated pool with waterfall and slide, gorgeous landscaping with fruit trees and koi pond.

Large secondary bedrooms. Oversized laundry room with sink, granite countertops, cabinetry and room for a refrigerator. Additional upgrades throughout include 8’ solid core doors, speakers, surround sound in numerous locations, designer paint and exterior security cameras. Three masonry fireplaces. Anderson windows installed six years ago on entire first level. Four Trane a/c units with variable speed. Over-sized side entry four car garage.

Availability to park an RV in the back as long as a garage is built for it. Over 7,000 square feet of stone on exterior. Almost acre-sized lot affords complete privacy.

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Dream kitchen offers top of the line SS appliances (including 6 burner gas range w/ pot filler & multiple ovens), pristine staggered cabinetry, granite counters, pantry & large island w/ sink & bar top seating, as well as built-in desk/workstation in the breakfast area. Formal dining room & wine cellar perfectly located for entertaining. Sprawling master suite w/ double door entry & private exit doors to outside has wet bar w/ mini fridge & fireplace w/ mantel. Master bathroom has two vanities w/ seated area, large soaking tub, huge walk-in tile shower w/ bench & multiple shower heads, & enormous closet w/ custom organization.

Finished basement offers huge family room w/ wet bar & mini fridge, perfect room for home theatre if desired, additional bedroom & full bath. Spectacular backyard w/ no neighbors behind or to one side is a true sanctuary w/ its large covered patio, breathtaking pool (waterfall feature & negative edge side), spa, built-in bbq, perfectly placed desert landscaping, scenic fencing & of course the hillside views. This is a MUST SEE home in Calabrea. Easy access to freeway & all Ahwatukee has to offer including shopping, dining, hiking/biking trails, golfing & plenty of other entertainment choices. Schedule your showing today!

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REAL ESTATE

MARCH 17, 2021 | AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS

Helping buyers purchase homes headache free

BY JAMES JUDGE AFN Guest Writer

H

omes are flying off the market in the Valley, leaving home buyers frustrated as they compete with multiple cash offers that are sometimes $20,000 to $30,000 over the asking price.

One tactic that realtors are using to create a stress-free buying and selling process is listing a home as “Coming Soon.”

Rather than listing the home on the MLS and receiving many offers, sellers can work with their realtor to find a qualified buyer without the stress of the crazy market. Here are a few things to know when considering this approach.

What is a Coming Soon listing? A Coming Soon listing is exactly how it sounds.

It’s a formal status within the MLS for a property to let realtors know that it will be available soon.

Listing a property as Coming Soon will create a buzz amongst realtors prior to

the property being active. Oftentimes, this status is used when the property is being prepped for the market (touch-ups, moving, staging, photos, etc.) and it is a great tool to create awareness without actually making the listing active until it is “ready.”

How can buyers find them? Buyers will need to rely on their real estate agent to find Coming Soon listings because they are not visibly advertised online. These listings do not show up on the trendy real estate websites until the property goes active, therefore, having a great agent is essential in order to learn about these listings.

However, with the property in Coming Soon status, a sign may be placed in the property’s front yard, so buyers are still able to keep an eye out for these listings.

This can be a great way for buyers who have been outbid on other homes to get their foot in the door to present a serious offer with a higher chance of it being accepted.

What are the advantages? If the seller is open to allowing showings during Coming Soon status, the listing gives buyers ‘first dibs’ on seeing the property. Buyers can avoid crowds and bidding wars, which can be a huge advantage.

However, this can also be beneficial for a seller. If an offer is presented to them during this status, the expectation is that it should be an offer they can’t refuse, for example, full price, no repair requests, maybe a waived appraisal contingency, etc.

The Coming Soon status is a great way to gain exposure for a listing, while also receiving any necessary feedback early in the selling process.

What’s happening in the market? The Coming Soon status is rather new; therefore, many agents are not very familiar with the process. The status is becoming more and more popular, and realtors continue to see increasingly positive results.

The Coming Soon status creates a great buzz so that when the property does go

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active, people are already excited about it.

This type of listing can result in the property spending less time on the market and provide great advantages and offers.

Coming Soon status listings have grown in popularity since their debut over the last year and allows for a property to gain early exposure and feedback.

Listing a property under this status is a great advantage for buyers and sellers alike, providing realtors with a way to sell property without the stress of the regular market process.

Listing a property under this status can gain more attention and buzz, where buyers and sellers can avoid large crowds and bidding wars all while getting great deals and offers. Consider a Coming Soon listing the next time you are planning on buying or selling property.

James Judge is a designer and realtor with HomeSmart. Information: mrjamesjudge.com. 

GOT NEWS? Contact Paul Maryniak at 480-898-5647 or pmaryniak@timespublications.com

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SOLD!

Canyon Verde/$899,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY Foothills/$299,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY Ahwatukee/$489,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY

Complete with the highest quality build and finishes. Gourmet kitchen includes slab granite counters, alder cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. This estate also features a media/ theater room with 105 inch screen. The basement includes a full wet bar, family room & 2 bedrooms. Resort Backyard with pool. A perfect 10!

www.GenoRoss.com Donna Leeds TOP GRI, ABR REALTOR

®

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949.310.5673

Stunning single-level custom estate gated summerhill on a 1/2 acre lot. beautiful mountain views. Gourmet Kitchen. Master Suite w/sitting area. Two master suites. Split floorplan. Executive office w/built-in cabinets. Tropical paradise backyard w/covered patio, gazebo, pebbletec pool, rock waterfall, built-in bbq, turf, & putting green. This estate has the perfect floorplan!!

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Geno Ross

602.751.2121

wwwBestAgentWUSA.com

Making Ahwatukee

Home Dreams Come True Since 1986 www.WestUSA.com I 480.893.0600

4505 E. Chandler Boulevard, Suite 170, Phoenix, AZ 85048

Mountain Park Ranch

SOLD!

$320,000

Open Floor Plan, Bright & Cozy Corner Lot Home Across from Large Greenbelt. 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Pool Backyard Paradise Private Pool with Travertine Pool Deck, Split Master with Separate Entrance to Back Yard. Beautiful Custom Shower and more.

Warner Ranch Meadows

SOLD!

$599,900

Let the AZ sunshine in with all it’s glory through the panoramic windows.1/2 bath + 3/4 bath & 1 bedroom downstairs. Eat in kitchen is complete with center island, breakfast bar, granite countertops, a plethora of custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Three bedrooms up plus a office with built in desks! Master suite has wood flooring, private exit to balcony, and built in desk. Full spa bathroom with double sink vanity and separate soaking tub + shower. Resort style backyard features a covered patio with lush green grass and a sparkling pool.

Jenifer Bulfer 480-297-6968 jbulfer@westusa.com

Marty Griffin 602-692-7653 martygriffin@q.com

Ahwatukee

Harbor Island

SOLD! 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3252 Sq Ft. This gorgeous family home with it’s backyard oasis combines the best of indoor and outdoor living .

The remodeled kitchen overlooks the dining/family room with gas fireplace and offers granite counter tops, stainless appliances, duel ovens, wet bar and large pantry. Recently repainted inside & out and re-carpeted in 2019.

Troy Royston 480-435-3461 troyston61@gmail.com

$849,900

Sun City West

$309,900

PENDING!

3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,958 sq ft. Charming single story home with natural brick accent and a front porch you can watch the sun rise and set from. Open floor plan with tile and carpet throughout. Large living room is perfect for entertaining family and friends. Open concept kitchen includes a wall oven, counter top stove, breakfast bar, eat in dining area and plenty of cabinet space. Master room has a built-in vanity, a walk-in closet and a 3/4 bathroom. Additional room with built in cabinets and counters. Enjoy your open, bordered back yard with a covered patio area.

Tempe - Temporary off the Market

$299,900

Wonderful single story 3 bedrooms, 2 baths great Tempe location. Large living room, kitchen offers black appliances and granite counters. Spacious master with walk in closet.

Large yard with RV gate and no HOA. Great location and minutes from ASU , restaurants and entertainment.

Marty Griffin 602-692-7653 martygriffin@q.com

Citrus Mountain Estates

SOLD!

Gorgeous Views! SEMI-CUSTOM BASEMENT HOME SITUATED ON A STUNNING WATERFRONT LOT IN HARBOR ISLAND COMMUNITY. 4,525 sq ft. 4 Bedrms 3 Baths. 1 Bedroom & Bath Downstairs.

Awesome Backyard W/ Play Pool, Grassy Area, Dock Where You Can Boat or Fish.

Geri Thompson 480-239-7589 gerithompson@westusa.com

$399,900

UNDER CONTRACTBACK UPS

Prepare to be amazed! Come and see this wonderful 4 bed, 2 bath property now for sale in Phoenix! A beautiful facade, desert landscaping, 3 car garage, this home has it all and more!

Kelly Quek, M.B.A. 480-734-9808 kellyquek8@gmail.com

TEMPORARY OFF THE MARKET

Natalie Christensen 602-373-6212 nchristensen@westusa.com

Mountain Park Ranch

$450,000

PENDING!

5 bedroom 3 bath, 4,254 sq ft. Large lot “Cul-D-Sac” family home in the heart of Ahwatukee. Home features two new Trane AC units, new roof and newer pebble tec diving pool!

Enjoy Mountain Park Ranch and all its amenities. Award winning Kyrene School district and close to Sky Harbor Airport.

Link Paffenbarger 602-989-7221 linkpaff@gmail.com