Keep an eye on shifting housing market here
BY MINDY JONES GSN Columnist
As the monsoons rev up to chase the afternoon sun, Gilbert homeowners have got their eye on the storm as they watch interest rates fluctuate, inventory rise and rapid appreciation give way to a shifting sellers’ market that is as much fun as watching your neighbor’s trampoline fly over the wall.
Who would have thought that in the year following the global pandemic, we would be reporting some of the most as-
tronomical gains in property values that the state has ever seen?
There definitely have been clear signs that we’d be in a sellers’ market for a bit. And there have been even clearer signs that we’re slowly making our way out of it for months now.
If we take a look at some of the numbers in Gilbert, you might be surprised to find that we actually have more inventory on the market than we did last quarter –but still not quite as much as we had last year or even two years ago. We’ve had about a 10 percent increase in inventory since March but are still down 35 percent year over year – a significant improvement from our previous 60 percent deficiency in inventory.
Meanwhile pending contracts have been declining for weeks, signifying some dampening of demand as skyrocketing prices cause shell shock and the summer weather once again returns with its seasonal impact on the market.
Days on market continue to fall as a reminder that houses are still selling, properties are still appreciating, and we are still in a sellers’ market because there still are not enough homes for people to buy.
Even with faltering demand and the
expected rise in inventory due to an end to the moratorium on evictions and the forbearances offered during the height of COVID-19, most sellers have an equity position of greater than $100K – which has kept foreclosures to less than 1,000 Valley-wide as compared to 45,000 in 2009.
Builders continue to adjust their selling strategies to capitalize on the 35 percent appreciation the resale market
has seen after reporting just a 5 percent increase in newbuild median pricing.
Buyers expecting the bottom to fall out of the market because of a rash of short sales or an excess of new construction will likely be sorely disappointed.
There is no shortage of perspectives on the current housing market.
But the rate of new listings hitting the market and the percentage of houses listed that actually sell are some of your best predictors for how long we’ll continue to see a rise in prices and multiple offers.
We are already seeing the rate of showings going down, the number of offers declining and a change in the concessions buyers are offering and sellers
are expecting.
While national news will likely pick up on a decline in average dollar per square foot over the last few weeks, properties under $1 million have continued to see an increase in their numbers, topping $246.94 average list price per square foot last week.
Overall Valley numbers are declining as the number of luxury listings typically bought and sold in the summer declines and their high-dollar per-square-foot averages are pulled out of the total.
This is why being in tune with your local market can help you avoid leaving money on the table and why working with a local professional en-
see MINDY page Re5
sures you aren’t getting a sales person, but rather a strategist who understands the options and can empower you to make the best decision for you and your family.
The next few months will prove pivotal as we move from a frenzied sellers’ market into more of a balanced market. Depending on the rate of new listings and the pace at which buyers return to the market – understanding the opportunity to take advantage of more
JANET ROGERS
inventory and more negotiation room before interest rates rise – we could see a dramatic change in selling conditions by the end of the year.
Remember: more negotiation room and even more price reductions do not mean cheaper houses – that ship has sailed for now. It means that a family making the median income in Greater Phoenix can afford more than half of what is on the market today.
Just like the palo verde tree that didn’t
make it through last night’s windstorm, however, there will be casualties of today’s market.
House of Refuge CEO Kayla Kolar recently spoke about the housing challenges many low income families face.
“We do see families that come in that have never been in this situation before,” she said.
While there will continue to be opportunity for those that can take advantage of it, we’re asking Gilbert to ensure
that no one is left behind. For more information on House of Refuge, a Gilbert Chamber of Commerce 2021 Disaster Response Award Winner, and the work that they do, visit houseofrefuge.org.
Mindy Jones, a Gilbert Realtor and owner of the Amy Jones Group at Keller Williams Integrity First, can be reached at 480-250-3857, Mindy@AmyJonesGroup. com or AmyJonesGroup.com.
1355 S. Higley Rd., Suite 111, Gilbert, 85295
602-565-0192
Fax: 888-892-6490
janetrogersgroup.com
janet@janetrogersgroup.com
