AFN Real Estate Guide - February 2021

REAL ESTATE

Real Estate Guide Unprecedented low supply strains housing market

BY PAUL MARYNIAK AFN Executive Editor

T

he inventory of homes for sale in the Valley has reached the lowest levels in modern history, real estate experts say.

That means that while the few homes on the market are drawing multiple offers – sometimes scores of them for one house – anxious buyers may soon have to cast their search far from the center of the Phoenix Metro.

During Land Advisors Organization’s annual assessment of the state of the

Phoenix real estate scene, two experts said they see no end to the home buying frenzy or the spiraling upward trend in prices.

Jeff Palacios Jr., director of research for John Burns Real Estate Consulting, and Land Advisors CEO Greg Vogel, indicated homebuyers may have to look as far away as Casa Grande, the Lake Pleasant area and Florence.

The Cromford Report, which also closely watches housing trends in the Valley, earlier this month observed, “The supply situ-

see MARKET page RE2

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ation is the worst we have ever recorded.”

“It is difficult to describe the state of the housing market in Greater Phoenix these days,” it said. “Just quoting the raw facts makes many people feel you are exaggerating wildly. There are those who seem to believe it cannot really be true when so many people are struggling with their daily lives, battling the worst pandemic we have seen for many decades.”

“Variations in demand are almost insignificant,” it continued. “This is because the supply of re-sale homes is so poor it crashes below all-time record lows almost every week.”

Cromford said the ratio between homes under contract and those for sale is so out of whack that “we have never before had to invent a description” for it.

It noted that as of Feb. 1 and compared to a year ago, listings were down 67 percent, the median sales price had jumped nearly 17 percent and the average price per square foot climbed over 19 percent.

That will be good news for those who do own a home. Cromford said, “The annual appreciation rate has already surpassed 19 percent and could easily reach

This chart shows the course of homebuilding the Phoenix Metro market over the last 60 years. Areas in purple are all that’s left besides reservations and federally owned land (black) and State Trust Land (white). (Land Advisors Organization) 30 percent by the time we are well into the second quarter.”

“New homebuilders are trying as hard as they can to create more supply, but there are many physical, financial and legal limits to how quickly they can do this,” Cromford said. “These additional homes are sure to be priced well above the current level.”

Palacios said “the ridiculously strong” housing market in the Valley is evidenced by the fact that home sales in 2020 were

80 percent higher than the norm for the years 2014-2019.

He advised homebuilders that sales were so strong that “it is going to be tough to get your growth this year” and said any overall sales growth, primarily for new homes, will not occur until the second half of 2021.

Palacios said that prices and demand not only will be driven by a seemingly no early end to “crazy cheap money” in the form of low mortgage rates but also by the unrelenting influx of out-of-state residents and the growing trend toward working at home.

“I’ve talked a lot about work from home,” he said. “It is triggering a massive catalyst for housing demand. …So, affordability will get stretched beyond what you think is the norm.”

Vogel said it’s not just home sales that have entered a new territory but land sales as well, saying he sees the market

going “from a chronic shortage that we were experiencing for several years into a panic that’s leading to rapid appreciation.”

“Even when we look at the 500,000-$2-million price range, we’ve gone from 283 days down by 90 to 26 days,” he said of the time houses stay on the market before coming under contract.

“We have outsized appreciation,” Vogel said. “I think this is too much. We are going to have a real hard time adding enough supply to curtail this but this can get quickly unaffordable.”

Vogel noted that the number of building permits soared last year in the West Valley and Pinal County, largely because available land in the East Valley has all but vanished except for huge tracts of State Trust Land in far east Mesa.

He noted that the current inventory of finished lots in the Phoenix Metro market totals about 13,000 after 28,700 building permits were issued in 2020.

“It’s a little bit frightening related to the supply that is being burned off,” he said.

“The builders bought 21,000 lots this past year. Some of those are larger supplies that will last several years, but there’s clearly a deep shortage and the shortage is not only looming but growing.”

He said builders and developers “have to buy land differently than they did in the years prior, where they were able to buy morsels or be able to digest 60 lots and have an option on another 60.

“They need to buy big platforms and we’re seeing that occur very often at this point. It is not unusual for a builder to come in and buy 300 to 600 units. That was not occurring even just pre-COVID,” Vogel said. 

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The areas circled in red are the home-building hotspots now and into the next few years.

(Land Advisors Organization)

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$345,000.00 $415,000.00 $535,000.00 $305,000.00 $385,000.00 $262,000.00 $785,000.00 $399,000.00 $275,000.00 $350,000.00 $617,000.00 $1,410,000.00 $227,000.00 $350,000.00

8650 48th St 14452 40th St 14025 33rd Way 11436 51st St 4611 Desert Dr 11040 Tomah St 13641 33rd St 4340 Ahwatukee Dr 4106 Alta Mesa Ave 4710 Euclid Ave 3406 E Sequoia Trail 3736 Mare Ct 4902 Hazel Dr #1 4542 E Arapahoe St

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$361,862.00 $299,900.00 $419,900.00 $1,185,000.00 $415,000.00 $305,000.00 $600,000.00 $375,000.00 $386,000.00 $435,000.00 $369,000.00 $392,500.00 $885,000.00 $455,000.00 $750,000.00

$232,500.00 $370,000.00 $367,900.00 $454,900.00 $255,000.00 $550,000.00 $274,900.00 $352,000.00 $350,000.00 $581,400.00 $535,000.00 $510,000.00 $549,900.00 $553,500.00 $422,500.00 $398,000.00 $479,900.00 $265,000.00 $479,900.00 $1,250,000.00 $410,000.00 $564,900.00 $270,000.00 $419,900.00 $550,000.00 $650,000.00

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end of March 2021 and is not extended – an unlikely scenario based on recent history – you can count on an avalanche of eviction lawyers lining up in lockstep on the courthouse steps on April 1.

If the moratorium is not extended, these tenants won’t be honoring or celebrating April Fool’s Day. Instead, the joke will be on them as they will be focusing on finding replacement housing.

On its face, the federal eviction moratorium appears to protect landlords who are not getting paid by tenants because the order does not relieve any obligation that a tenant owes under the lease.

In reality, however, real estate experts are leery of a landlord’s ability to collect on a significant judgment against a tenant who has not paid rent in several months.

If a tenant qualifies under the federal eviction moratorium, the reason is that the tenant cannot afford to pay rent due to a loss or reduction in income. If a tenant cannot afford to pay rent, it is unlikely that same tenant can satisfy a large court judgment.

Thus, if and when the federal eviction

moratorium expires, not only will many tenants be forced to move, but landlords will be forced to reckon with the reality that they may never be made whole on the months no rent was paid.

It is also important to note that the federal eviction moratorium does not protect all renters.

The tenant must sign a declaration, which can be found on the CDC website.

The declaration form provides that the tenant cannot afford rent, has sought governmental assistance, and is likely to be deemed homeless if evicted.

Many landlords are still proceeding with eviction lawsuits, raising arguments about the truthfulness of the declaration signed by the tenant.

In other cases, landlords are proceeding with eviction actions for cases that do not relate to non-payment of rent – i.e., the tenant damaged the property or engaged in criminal activity.

Ben Gottlieb is a partner in MacQueen & Gottlieb, PLC, the state’s leading real estate law firm. Information: 602-5332840. 

BY KEVIN REAGAN AFN Staff Writer and HOWARD FISCHER Capitol Media Services

C

ommittees in the state House and Senate have given their approval to two competing bills that would give cities more power to regulate short-term rental properties.

Some Valley cities have come out in opposition to Chandler Sen. J.D. Mesnard’s SB 1379, which tries to prevent those rentals from turning into rowdy party houses by allowing local governments to set occupancy limits and insurance requirements on the owners who lease out their homes through websites like Airbnb and VRBO. But Scottsdale Rep. John Kavanagh’s bill would go much further, restoring much of the authority that previous legislatures and Gov. Doug Ducey stripped away in recent years.

Houses rented through the digital applications have been the source of several complaints in recent years by neighbors who don’t appreciate seeing residential properties turned into de facto hotels.

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of most East Valley communities, said Mesnard’s bill does not go far enough to resolve the issues brought up by local governments.

Nick Ponder, the League’s legislative director, said SB 1379 doesn’t make enough substantive changes to the state’s current laws that are favorable to municipalities.

The League is not advocating for outlawing short-term rentals, he added, but cities and towns want more autonomy over how to control these properties.

“The prominent issue here is that the law that was passed in 2016 requires cities and towns to treat short-term rentals exactly the same as we treat long-term residential rentals,” Ponder said.

Ryan Peters, Chandler’s government relations manager, said Chandler opposes the bill for similar reasons to the ones expressed by other cities.

Mesnard’s caps civil penalties at the amount of daily rent advertised by the short-term rental where a violation occurred.

SB 1379 additionally requires a mu-

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One such rental was the site of a homicide in Chandler a couple years ago after a deadly fight broke out during a house party.

Airbnb and VRBO, which have more than 500 rental listings spread out across Chandler, claim many of their hosts are conscientious residents simply trying to earn some extra income by leasing out empty rooms.

Lawmakers have been trying to appease the conflicting interests between municipalities and rental owners ever since Ducey prevented local governments from banning short-term rentals.

Mesnard said he intentionally wrote his bill to specifically target rentals that become a revolving door for boisterous revelers by letting cities decide whether to restrict the number many tenants who can occupy them.

The bill allows the revocation of homeowners’ tax license if they violate local regulations at least three times within a one-year period.

But the Arizona League of Cities and Towns, which represents the interests

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he courageous investors who plunged into the deep end of the stock market swimming pool in March of 2020 have basked in delight and euphoria these past 10 months as their household net worth rose dramatically due to a rising stock market.

This is also especially true for those affiliated or invested with companies like Zoom, Peloton, Big Tech, Netflix – to name just a few – that were uniquely positioned to benefit from the post-COVID-19 economy.

Others are not so fortunate, however.

The past 10 months have wrought significant and ongoing emotional and financial distress – waiting precariously for the next executive order or stimulus check to arrive just to get by and meet monthly expenses or avoid being dispossessed from the home in which they reside.

Experts refer to this phenomenon as a “K-Shaped Recovery,” which has gripped

the post-COVID-19 economy, significantly exacerbating economic disparity among different divisions, sectors, and demographics of the U.S. economy.

This phenomenon is on full display in the real estate market, where thanks in part to record low interest rates many households are benefitting from purchasing their first home, upgrading their home or refinancing their existing mortgage.

Others are unemployed and are at risk of being removed from their home to eviction or foreclosure.

The numbers are too large to ignore.

Recent data produced by Zillow reveals that millions of renters in the U.S. are not employed and are at risk of losing their homes once the federal eviction moratorium expires.

In the Phoenix metro area, numerous renters cannot afford rent even with stimulus checks and unemployment payments.

This presents a unique problem both for the unemployed tenants as well as the landlords renting out the property.

From the tenant perspective, if the federal eviction moratorium expires at the

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nicipality to wait 30 days before imposing a civil penalty to a rental owner who fails to provide their contact information to the city.

On Feb. 3, the Senate Commerce Committee voted unanimously to pass Mesnard’s bill to the Rules Committee for further review.

Despite the bipartisan support for Mesnard’s bill, representatives from the cities of Scottsdale, Surprise, Casa Grande and Fountain Hills have come out in opposition to the legislation.

Paradise Valley Mayor Jerry Bien-Willner said his town opposes SB 1379 because it doesn’t go far enough to restore the rights of ordinary citizens who feel their neighborhoods have been impacted by short-term rentals.

“Our state’s predicament will, I think, get worse if we don’t take action here,” the mayor said. “We want real reform.”

Mesnard said he is not interested in overregulating the rental industry, stating, “I know there are other proposals

SALE PENDING

Federal eviction ban only short-term fix

FEBRUARY 17, 2021 | AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS

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AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS | FEBRUARY 17, 2021

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REAL ESTATE

FEBRUARY 17, 2021 | AHWATUKEE FOOTHILLS NEWS

Correction A report in last week’s Ahwatukee

Foothills News on how attorneys Patrick MacQueen of Ahwatukee and Ben Gottlieb of Chandler were named among the top 100 lawyers in Arizona misidentified a photo of MacQueen.

Got s?

New

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RENTALfrom page RE5

out there that would like to go broader. I will not be on board with those.”

Meanwhile, a House panel last week voted 8-5 to would allow city and town councils to impose limits on how many people can be in a short-term rental based on the number of bedrooms.

Potentially more significant, Kavanagh said his legislation would permit cities to enact zoning restrictions that could limit the number of these short-term rentals in any one neighborhood – or entirely within the community’s borders.

The 2016 law “was sold as the elderly couple, empty nesters with the extra bedroom, who could make a few extra bucks renting out their room to tourists or whatever,’’ Kavanagh said.

“That seemed benign,’’ he said, what with the owners on the premises to control any problems.

Capitol Media Services contributed to this report. 

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whatever you want with your property,’’ he said.

“If there’s a vacant lot in a residential neighborhood, maybe next to your house, and somebody buys it, they shouldn’t be allowed to open up a McDonald’s,’’ Kavanagh continued. “When you invest your life savings in home in a residential neighborhood, you have a right to make sure that it stays residential.’’

Kavanagh said his legislation would have no effect on individuals who are owner-occupants and rent out rooms in their own homes. He said they are not the problem.

And he promised to amend his legislation when it goes to the House floor to “grandfather’’ in any existing short-term rentals so they could continue to operate if and when his measure becomes law.

Contact Paul Maryniak at 480-898-5647 or pmaryniak@timespublications.com

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“But in reality, short-term rentals are such that an investor can make far more money buying a house and renting it out as a hotel -- as a horizontal, decentralized hotel -- than renting the house out for long-term rental,’’ he said.

Kavanagh said it has created problems in places like Sedona, where he said 40 percent of the available rental units are now vacation properties, “driving up the prices of all rentals and making it impossible for city employees or even business employees, store employees, to live in the town.’’

Rep. Jake Hoffman, R-Queen Creek, said the whole concept is offensive.

“Property and the ability to use one’s property to its fullest extent, and to the fullest enjoyment, is your right,’’ he said, contending there are enough ordinances already in place to deal with “bad apples.’’

Kavanagh said that Hoffman is wrong.

“There is not an absolute right to do

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Calabrea $1,099,000

Cabrillo Canyon $689,000

5 bedroom / 3 bath, 3,506 SqFt, Cul-de-sac location with huge backyard, sports court, built-in BBQ, mature shade trees, very private backing to wash. Good size SOLD! bedrooms, master downstai5. Features a large office with balcony, plus office/loft with built-in bookcase and 3 full baths. Th� home is perfect for family gatherings BEST NEAR THE LOOP 202 in gated withand stunning mountain only. views. andLOCATION entertaining.

CanNEW be previewed with 24Calabrea hour notice appointment

SOLD! Stunning Single Level Custom Remodel on a huge corner lot in a cul-de-sac! *4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath *The highest quality custom finishes throughout *Grand foyer *Formal living & dining room *Familt room w/fireplace *Wetbar *Designer kitchen includes: quartzsite counters & island, s/s appliances, custom cabinetry, walk-in pantry *Recessed LED lights throughout *Plantation shutters *Large master suite *Master bath w/walk-in shower, free standing tub, & walk-in closet *Laundry room w/sink *Wood flooring *Custom fixtures *Trane A/C’s *Private backyard w/covered patio, pebbletec pool, turf, & RV gate with tons of room to park the toys *3 Car garage with epoxy *The lot is very private *The house shows like a new build *Do not miss your opportunity to own this amazing Cabrillo Canyon Estate!

Complete with the highest quality build and finishes. Gourmet kitchen includes slab granite counters, alder cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. This estate also features a media/ theater room with 105 inch screen. The basement includes a full wet bar, family room & 2 bedrooms. Resort Backyard with pool. A perfect 10!

www.GenoRoss.com Donna Leeds

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TOP GRI, ABR REALTOR

®

949.310.5673

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SOLD!

Canyon Verde/$899,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY Foothills/$299,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY Ahwatukee/$489,000--SOLD IN 1 DAY

Geno Ross

602.751.2121

wwwBestAgentWUSA.com

Making Ahwatukee

Home Dreams Come True Since 1986 www.WestUSA.com I 480.893.0600

4505 E. Chandler Boulevard, Suite 170, Phoenix, AZ 85048

Horse Property - Queen Creek

$695,000

PENDING!

Over 2200 sq. ft main house with 5 bedrooms, 3 baths, and a separate 844 sq ft 1 bedroom, 1 bath guest house, complete with full kitchen, lvg room and laundry room, a 44 x 32 mare motel, enclosed 16 x 16 area with AC, heat and electrical. An expansive front courtyard with views of the San Tan Mountains and a back covered patio, with views of the Superstition Mountains. With over an acre, of lasered level irrigation land, 3 grass pastures divided by fences, gates for horses and livestock, 3 stalls for horses or livestock 1 dog kennel/work room, all sitting on a county island!

Mountain Park Ranch

$320,000

Open Floor Plan, Bright & Cozy Corner Lot Home Across from Large Greenbelt. 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Pool Backyard Paradise Private Pool with Travertine Pool Deck, Split Master with Separate Entrance to Back Yard. Beautiful Custom Shower and more.

Rhonda Fosenburg 480-227-0815 rhonda@rhonda4realestate.com rhondafosenburg.com

Ahwatukee

SOLD! 4 bedroom, 3 bath, 3252 Sq Ft. This gorgeous family home with it’s backyard oasis combines the best of indoor and outdoor living . The remodeled kitchen overlooks the dining/family room with gas fireplace and offers granite counter tops, stainless appliances, duel ovens, wet bar and large pantry. Recently repainted inside & out and re-carpeted in 2019.

Troy Royston 480-435-3461 troyston61@gmail.com

SOLD!

Warner Ranch Meadows

$599,900

Citrus Mountain Estates

$849,900

$399,900

Gorgeous Views! SEMI-CUSTOM BASEMENT HOME SITUATED ON A STUNNING WATERFRONT LOT IN HARBOR ISLAND COMMUNITY. 4,525 sq ft. 4 Bedrms 3 Baths. 1 Bedroom & Bath Downstairs. Awesome Backyard W/ Play Pool, Grassy Area, Dock Where You Can Boat or Fish.

Prepare to be amazed! Come and see this wonderful 4 bed, 2 bath property now for sale in Phoenix! A beautiful facade, desert landscaping, 3 car garage, this home has it all and more!

Geri Thompson 480-239-7589 gerithompson@westusa.com

$419,900

UNDER CONTRACTBACK UPS

Kelly Quek, M.B.A. 480-734-9808 kellyquek8@gmail.com

SOLD!

Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home. Formal living and dining room. Tile & carpet in all the right places. Vaulted ceilings and soft color palette. Spacious open floor plan for the kitchen, dining, and family room. The stunning eat-in kitchen has a plethora of custom cabinets, beautiful granite counters, SS appliances, breakfast bar seating, and a pantry. The master has a private entrance, a full bath, and a walk-in closet. The serene backyard has a covered patio, mature foliage, and a nice lawn area for the kids & pets to play! Community amenities. Close to schools, shopping, and major freeways. Make this your new home today!

Marty Griffin 602-692-7653 martygriffin@q.com

Jenifer Bulfer 480-297-6968 jbulfer@westusa.com

Harbor Island

SOLD!

Let the AZ sunshine in with all it’s glory through the panoramic windows.1/2 bath + 3/4 bath & 1 bedroom downstairs. Eat in kitchen is complete with center island, breakfast bar, granite countertops, a plethora of custom cabinets, and stainless steel appliances. Three bedrooms up plus a office with built in desks!

Master suite has wood flooring, private exit to balcony, and built in desk. Full spa bathroom with double sink vanity and separate soaking tub + shower.

Resort style backyard features a covered patio with lush green grass and a sparkling pool.

Mountain Park Ranch

Foothills Reserve

$625,000 Beautifully maintained and upgraded home that has it all. Built with your family in mind. Mountain views and a large pool for the family. This newly renovated kitchen is a must see. From the large granite counter top, double ovens, gas stove top, warmer tray and so much more. The Master bedroom is your own getaway with a private balcony for your retreat as you gaze upon South Mountain. Relax in your own sitting room nestled adjacent you Master suite. This unique home is waiting for your enjoyment.

Marty Griffin 602-692-7653 martygriffin@q.com

Tempe - Temporary off the Market $299,900

TEMPORARY OFF THE MARKET

Wonderful single story 3 bedrooms, 2 baths great Tempe location. Large living room, kitchen offers black appliances and granite counters. Spacious master with walk in closet.

Large yard with RV gate and no HOA. Great location and minutes from ASU , restaurants and entertainment.

Natalie Christensen 602-373-6212 nchristensen@westusa.com

Beth Cooke 520-635-3727 beth@bethrealaz.com www.bethrealaz.com

Mountain Park Ranch

$450,000 5 bedroom 3 bath, 4,254 sq ft. Large lot “Cul-D-Sac” family home in the heart of Ahwatukee. Home features two new Trane AC units, new roof and newer pebble tec diving pool!

Enjoy Mountain Park Ranch and all its amenities. Award winning Kyrene School district and close to Sky Harbor Airport.

Link Paffenbarger 602-989-7221 linkpaff@gmail.com