Bucs Preview 2023

Photo Illustration RON BORRESEN | Times

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Tampa Bay Times

Week 2: vs. Bears Sept. 17 | 1 p.m., Fox

Bucs wide receiver Chris Godwin

Week 3: vs. Eagles Sept. 25 | 7:15 p.m., ABC Week 4: at Saints Oct. 1 | 1 p.m., Fox Week 5: Bye Week 6: vs. Lions Oct. 15 | 1 p.m. , Fox Week 7: vs. Falcons Oct. 22 | 1 p.m., Fox Week 8: at Bills Oct. 26 | 8:15, Prime Week 9: at Texans Nov. 5 | 1 p.m., CBS Week 10: vs. Titans Nov. 12 | 1 p.m., CBS Week 11: at 49ers Nov. 19 | 4:05 p.m., Fox Week 12: at Colts Nov. 26 | 1 p.m., CBS Week 13: vs. Panthers Dec. 3 | 1 p.m., CBS Week 14: at Falcons Dec. 10 | 1 p.m., CBS

2023 SCHEDULE

Week 1: at Vikings Today | 1 p.m., CBS

Week 15: at Packers Dec. 17 | 1 p.m., Fox Week 16: vs. Jaguars Dec. 24 | 4:05 p.m., CBS Week 17: vs. Saints Dec. 31 | 1 p.m., Fox

HOME AWAY

Week 18: at Panthers TBD | TBD

All times Eastern.

Tampa Bay Times |

Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION 10. TE Cade Otton YEAR: Second

BOOM

BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Rob Gronkowski’s

hologram. Suddenly the No. 1 tight end in the room, Otton can’t reasonably be expected to replicate Gronk’s brute-force run blocking or historic prowess as a pass catcher. But if he can make a jump in Year Two after an encouraging rookie season (42 catches, 391 yards), it provides a desperately-needed dimension to the Bucs’ passing game.

BUST with 10 these

or

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Austin Seferi-

an-Jenkins. Unreliable on and off the field, the team’s second-round pick in 2014 totaled only 45 catches in parts of three seasons in Tampa, and he was released after being arrested on a DUI charge in September 2016. Otton — a model citizen so far in Tampa — would really have to regress to hit Seferian-Jenkins status, and that’s unlikely.

Players who may determine whether Tampa Bay stuns skeptics or regresses to the pre-Tom Brady era.

T

TAMPA his time, he walked into the sunset with nary a stutter step.

Tom Brady has shown no sign of audibling out of retirement in 2023, and many presume the Bucs are heading back to an era that teemed with both pewter and putrid.

But while conventional logic says Tampa Bay is staring at a serious regression without Brady (or Gronk or the 2021 version of JOEY Leonard Fournette), some players KNIGHT could help the franchise stiff-arm Bucs convention with big years.

Here are the 10 guys (ranked in order of significance) we deem most critical to the franchise’s fortunes this season. For fun, we have drawn comparisons in each case to players from the Brady era, and the bleak one (12-year playoff drought) that preceded it.

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

9. OLB Shaquil Barrett YEAR: Ninth BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: A younger version of

himself. In the wake of the most traumatic offseason of his life, Barrett could be hard-pressed to regain the form that made him a Pro Bowler in 2019 and 2021. But if the Achilles he ruptured last October holds up, we’re guessing he’ll perform at an inspired level to honor the memory of 2-year-old daughter Arrayah, who drowned in April.

JEFFEREE WOO | Times

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Da’Quan Bowers. As edge rushers go, this second-round

pick (in 2011) may be the franchise’s biggest bust ever. During a disastrous half-decade tenure marked by injuries, arrests and suspensions, Bowers totaled only seven sacks. While Barrett, 30, is bereft of such off-field issues, injuries and productivity are concerns at this stage of his career.

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Tampa Bay Times

2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION 8. WR Chris Godwin

6. DL Calijah Kancey

YEAR: Seventh

YEAR: Rookie

BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: The 2021

BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Ndamukong Suh.

version of himself before his season-ending knee injury.

The most versatile receiver on the roster, Godwin had 98 catches (for 1,103 yards) in 14 games before being sidelined. With precious little experience at receiver behind him and Mike Evans, Godwin will be counted on to catch, block, clear out defenders and mentor. In other words, he must be Chris Godwin.

Hoping to get faster up front, the Bucs drafted Kancey to serve as a sturdy, agile complement to behemoth nose tackle Vita Vea. In the twilight of his career, Suh excelled in a similar complementary role during his three seasons in pewter, totaling 14.5 sacks as a Buc (not including his 1.5 sacks in Super Bowl 55).

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Brian Price. Drafted one round

after Gerald McCoy in 2010, this former UCLA star dealt with injuries and the death of a sibling in two tumultuous seasons in Tampa before being traded to the Bears for a seventh-round pick. In 20 games as a Buc, Price totaled three sacks.

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: His younger self.

Amid a few dazzling stretches, Godwin struggled mightily with his consistency, catching fewer than 63% of the passes targeted his way in 2017 and 2018. That percentage hasn’t dipped below 71% since, and despite the wear on Godwin’s surgically-mended lower body, we foresee no regression.

5. RB Rachaad White YEAR: Second BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: JEFFEREE WOO | Times

7. WR Trey Palmer YEAR: Rookie BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Antonio Brown,

circa 2020. A controversial signing in October 2020, this four-time All-Pro added a sleek dimension to the Bruce Arians/Byron Leftwich offense once he got his bearings. Palmer, who dazzled in training camp, had two acrobatic touchdown catches in the preseason to vault him to No. 3 receiver.

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Arrelious Benn. This 2010 second-round

draft pick battled knee and shoulder issues all three of his seasons in Tampa, totaling only 59 catches. The Bucs, who must find speedy complements to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, desperately need Palmer to assert himself now that Russell Gage has been sidelined (knee).

Leonard Fournette in 2021. After his breakthrough playoff performance the previous winter, Fournette delivered a dazzling encore (1,466 total yards, 10 touchdowns) in 2021, averaging a career-best 4.5 yards a carry.

White, who replaced Fournette as starter midway through 2022, brandished that same dualthreat versatility as a rookie.

JEFFEREE WOO | Times

BUCS WILL SUFFER IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Charles Sims. The team’s third-round

pick in 2014 had a solid sophomore season (529 rushing, 561 receiving yards) but suffered from injuries and inconsistency in four mostly nondescript years in Tampa. A spotty receiver, Sims’ best catch percentage in a season (75%, 24 catches on 32 targets) pales next to White’s (86%, 50 catches on 58 targets) as a rookie.

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION 4. WR Mike Evans

2. LT Tristan Wirfs

YEAR: 10th

YEAR: Fourth

BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Himself.

BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Himself. Still only

The Bucs brought a ton of young receivers to training camp in an effort to get faster at the position, but exactly none are proven.

Even worse, veteran Russell Gage (knee) is on the shelf. At 30, Evans still can stretch a field like no one’s business. Additionally, he has indicated that the Dave Canales offense will feature fresh routes in his arsenal.

24, Wirfs earned Hall of Fame projections in three sparkling seasons at right tackle. If he can brandish the same brute strength and agility on the opposite side, the best edge rushers on Tampa Bay’s schedule (such as the 49ers’ Joey Bosa, Saints’ Cameron Jordan) will have far tougher routes to the Bucs’ backfield.

| Times

BUCS WILL SUFFER IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Anthony Collins. Signed

to a five-year, $30 million contract in early 2014, this former Bengal regressed into a high-priced turnstile that fall, when the Bucs finished 2-14. Questioned for his effort level (unlike Wirfs), Collins was a glaring part of a unit that tied for third in the NFL for most sacks allowed (52), and he was released after one season.

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: DeSean

Jackson. This three-time Pro Bowler still had some jet fuel in his tank upon signing with the Bucs in 2017, but never could get on the same page with Jameis Winston (164 targets, 91 catches in two years). The Bucs’ offensive fortunes could get bleak in a hurry if Evans doesn’t develop a clairvoyance with his new quarterback.

CHLOE TROFATTER

1. QB Baker Mayfield DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

3. RT Luke Goedeke YEAR: Second BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Tristan Wirfs, circa

2020. We know that’s asking for the moon, but if Goedeke — who played right tackle at Central Michigan — can re-boot his fledgling career by simply approaching Wirfs’ All-Pro stratosphere, the Bucs’ refurbished offensive line just might prove serviceable.

BUCS WILL STRUGGLE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: He did as a rookie.

ALEX MENENDEZ | Associated Press (2022)

Goedeke slid to left tackle out of necessity in 2022, and struggled mightily in seven starts. While the Bucs’ protection/run-blocking issues can’t all be laid at Goedeke’s cleats, there’s a reason he’s playing right tackle again.

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

YEAR: Sixth BUCS WILL SURPRISE IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Brady with bootleg chops.

OK, that’s asking too much. There’s only one GOAT, but that GOAT possessed all the mobility of a street lamp, which really hamstrung the offense last year when the line couldn’t protect him. Mayfield can’t dissect a defense or sneak a spiral into a tight window like Brady, but his mobility could open things up for Dave Canales’ offense.

BUCS WILL SUFFER IF HE PLAYS LIKE: Jameis Winston. The No. 1 overall pick in 2015 possessed one of the greatest arms — and turnover propensities — in franchise history. Neither Canales nor Todd Bowles will let Mayfield even approach 30 interceptions (Winston’s total in 2019); they’ll make a change long before then.

Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls.

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

JEFFEREE WOO | Times

The offensive scheme of new coordinator Dave Canales, left, takes the quarterback out of the pocket, and Baker Mayfield has the mobility to make it work.

ENTER THE UNKNOWN

I

TAMPA mportant man, Todd Bowles.

After all, this is his team and his legacy.

Future Hall of Famer, Mike Evans. On his way to the NFL’s list of top-20 receivers all-time.

Local icon, Lavonte David.

Rarely has there been a more loyal, classy and, of course, elite linebacker.

The Bucs have their share of familiar, significant and beloved faces. And, yet, the upcoming football season in Tampa

Bay will not be decided by the mainstays. Not completely, anyway.

The fortunes of the Bucs in 2023 will rest JOHN on the shoulders — or ROMANO the playbook — of a Columnist rookie offensive coordinator with a motivational speaker’s soul. For those of you with a closet full of pewter and red, Dave Canales is your best hope for success this season.

Think about it. The defense is still under the purview of Bowles, and

still somewhat similar to the unit that flirted with top-10 status in 2022. It’s the offense that needed an overhaul. The line has been revamped and Baker Mayfield has been handed the football, but the playoffs will seem light years away if Canales does not deliver the offensive scheme that Bowles and general manager Jason Licht crave.

If that thought is keeping Canales, 42, up at night, you would never know it. He hits the practice field daily with a schoolboy’s enthusiasm for recess. He is frightfully upbeat and has the earnestSee ROMANO, 7X

“He is invested in every single guy and wants them all to feel important. You can see it just watching him walking down the hall and stopping and talking and encouraging everyone he sees.”

Receivers coach Brad Idzik on new coordinator Dave Canales

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

Canales supervises practices and games with enthusiasm. “He’s a very positive person and I like a lot of positivity around the building,” GM Jason Licht says.

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continued from 6X ness to pull it off. He began his tenure in Tampa Bay in the spring by phoning every single player on the offensive side of the ball to introduce himself, and hasn’t stopped talking since.

“It hasn’t changed since Todd brought him in here for an interview and I had the opportunity to sit with him for a couple hours,” Licht said. “It’s been the same every day: very steady in terms of the energy, the focus. It’s fun to talk with him because he’s looking for solutions at all times. ‘If this doesn’t work, we’re going to do this. But trust me, I feel good that this is going to work. We’re going to put these players in these positions. …’

“He’s a very positive person and I like a lot of positivity around the building. He definitely adds to that.”

Positivity is one thing.

Third and long is another. As likable, peppy and assured as he is, Canales is still an unknown in this job. At best, a calculated risk. He has never been an offensive coordinator, never called plays during a regular-season game.

He was on Pete Carroll’s staffs at USC and Seattle for 14 years and yet, when Carroll was looking for a new offensive coordinator in 2021, the Seahawks coach bypassed Canales in favor of Shane Waldron.

If his ego was bruised, Canales hides it well. He worked under Waldron for two years, brought many of his offensive philosophies to Tampa Bay and still quotes Carroll to assure you that he does not feel the weight of expectations in this new career-defining role.

“I don’t feel that, really,” Canales said. “It’s just a new thing. Coming from Seattle, where Pete was fantastic at reframing our minds, to say every year is a new team. There are no expectations, even if every single player stayed the same, which never happens of course. Through the offseason, through the preseason, it was always this new thing, this new beginning, this new creation. That was always so refreshing because it lifts the burden of expectation.”

That may be true in the offensive meeting room, but not so much in the tavern down the street. Bucs fans have expectations of an offense that is more diverse, more flexible than what they saw last year.

That offense had Evans, Tom Brady, Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs, and could barely find the end zone.

That’s why the Canales hiring is so critical. Even with the same receivers and the same running back, this offense needed an overhaul.

A fresh start. The Bruce Arians no-risk-it, no-biscuit philosophy worked remarkably well in 2020-21, but was less impressive when Jameis Winston was throwing into coverage in 2019 and Brady was too skittish to allow plays to develop in 2022.

It’s up to Canales to convince a locker room — and a community — that this is a new direction and not a continuing downturn.

“He is exactly as advertised,” said Bucs receivers coach Brad Idzik, who spent the past four seasons working with Canales as a receivers and quarterbacks coach in Seattle. “He’s been with Pete so long that he fits that mantra of being positive, encouraging guys. Every guy in a Bucs uniform is ours.

There is no bashing a guy down, there’s no negative talk. We’re trying to get him to be the best human being and be an important part of this team.

“He is invested in every single guy and wants them all to feel important. You can see it just watching him walking down the hall and stopping and talking and encouraging everyone he sees.”

The Canales scheme will definitely look different.

It will have more pre-snap motion, more quarterback

DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

Dave Canales, along with Baker Mayfield, is in charge of reviving an offense that slid horribly backward in Tom Brady’s final season.

movement, more running plays with a line-friendly zone blocking technique.

Fans in Seattle will immediately recognize the signs.

But even Canales is unsure where this group will end up. He’s got different personnel with different

skill sets. In that sense, this offense will be an evolutionary project that may look different in December than it did in September.

The Seahawks were not a particularly impressive offense in Waldron’s first season at the helm, so do

not be surprised if it takes Canales a little time to find his groove. And do not be shocked if he pulls it off.

“That’s what I told the group early on. I said we will become us. There will be a Hallmark moment where we’re like, ‘Hey, this is us,’ ”

Canales said. “It’s more about a style of play than actual plays. It’s more about attitude. It’s more about an ownership and a confidence from our group.

“We will have a certain style in the pass game and the run game, but I’m not

in a rush to figure that out. I just want to put us in a position to have success in each game, and then the story of the season will write itself.”

Contact John Romano at jromano@tampabay.com.

Follow @Romano_TBTimes.

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

Photos by DOUGLAS R. CLIFFORD | Times

Todd Bowles says he felt “handcuffed” a bit after taking over as head coach last year. “You could see that you had to get younger, and you see that you have to revamp.”

Bowles isn’t bitter, but changes may be better

BY RICK STROUD

Times Staff Writer

TAMPA — Todd Bowles isn’t going to lie. He’s not going to hide the truth about his first season as Bucs head coach in a word salad and let you pick through it in hopes of uncovering a few morsels of honesty.

If you want to know what happened in 2022 — which incidentally ended with both a losing record (8-9) and an NFC South title — he will confess he believed his hands were tied from the get-go.

Bowles wasn’t hired until March 30, 2022. Tom Brady unretired. The band didn’t just get back together, it had aged like Keith Richards.

Bowles couldn’t hire new coaches or change the offensive scheme.

“With all the outside forces that came with it, you were kind of handcuffed a little bit,” Bowles said. “We could’ve won the last game (at Atlanta) if we don’t take those (starters) out. We won the division. That’s No. 1.

We didn’t play very well in the playoff game (against Dallas). I thought we were maxed out as a team, in all honesty. Even the year

before when Bruce (Arians) left, we won off talent. We were just out there. We won off talent alone.

“Last year, we blew about four games that we should’ve won. But we won the division and that’s always the first thing. We got in and we were probably maxed out. You could see that you had to get younger, and you see that you have to revamp, and you see you have to make some changes in the offseason and that’s what I did.”

But before that, before Bowles let a plethora of assistant coaches go, Arians decided to resign as head coach and move to a front-office job as the assistant to general manage Jason Licht. Arians insisted, with Brady back, he wanted to leave Bowles with a chance to win another Super Bowl. He also wanted to keep all his assistants and their families in Tampa Bay. Problem was, Arians still was in the building, riding his golf cart around at practice but not poking his head into any meeting rooms.

Arians admitted he didn’t do Bowles any favors and has returned to his forever house in Georgia.

even if you’ve been coaching together a long time, sometimes you agree to disagree.

“And that happened, too.”

A change is gonna come

Bowles could have used help from his former boss, Bruce Arians (in the golf cart), straightening out the kinks on offense. “(Arians) knew the tweaks,” Bowles says.

What might have helped was if Arians had tried to do more, like fix the league’s worst rushing offense.

“You always love having Bruce around. It wasn’t a factor,” Bowles said. “The fact that you get the job so late, we were like two weeks away from the draft. The

hay was in the barn. The system was set. The coaching staff was set. The players were practically set to report back. So it was hard. ...

“Everybody says, ‘This formula has worked for us.

Why are we changing anything?’ So you try to keep it

and tweak it as you go. But as you go, you start to figure out that we had a lot of guys not practicing and just playing on Sundays because we were older. ... So this year, you get a chance to rebuild the culture and the chemistry and kind of get it right. You understand,

The Bucs still have plenty of players who helped win Super Bowl 55, but the balance of the roster includes 13 rookies, including six undrafted free agents. They were $55 million over the salary cap and couldn’t compete for free agents.

Brady is gone, but quarterback Baker Mayfield appears to be a perfect fit for the offense under new coordinator Dave Canales, one that features a zone running scheme and puts the quarterback on the move with a series of play-action, rollouts, bootlegs and waggles.

The former Seahawks quarterbacks coach helped revitalize the career of Geno Smith. Mayfield is with his fourth team since July 2022 and faces the unenviable task of being the first quarterback in the Bucs’ huddle after Brady.

“It’s not about who replaces Tom, it’s about who can run this offense better,” Bowles said. “Nobody is going to replace Tom. I keep saying it. Tom is the greatest. You don’t fill his shoes. You go out and get a new pair. They’re going to look different and they’re going to feel different but that doesn’t mean you’re not going to win with them.

They’re not going to have his fanfare. They’re not going to have his experience and all that, but nobody is.”

Unfortunately for the Bucs, three years of being relevant just from the mere presence of Brady has been replaced by a familiar yawn.

It feels like a rebuild. At best, it is a reset.

Before Brady’s arrival in 2020, the Bucs went 12 consecutive seasons without reaching the playoffs and had only three seasons that produced a winning record.

The door to the head coach’s office should have been a revolving one.

Bowles had only one winning record in four seasons as the Jets’ head coach, going 24-40. All NFL head coaches are embatSee BOWLES, 9X

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continued from 8X tled. They face pressure to win from ownership, fans and media. The expectations can be unrealistic. He knows if he doesn’t win this season, regardless of making the playoffs last season only to be demolished 31-14 in the NFC wild-card game, the conversation will veer toward his tenuous future.

Bowles responded after last season by firing offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and five other assistants. Three more, including quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, decided to retire, at least temporarily.

No one was under fire more last season than Leftwich, the former Jaguars and Steelers quarterback who was talked into coaching by Arians. Leftwich called plays for an offense that ranked no lower than third in points scored in three of his four seasons in Tampa Bay. In his final season with the Bucs, quarterback Jameis Winston passed for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns (along with 30 interceptions) while Brady averaged nearly 4,900 passing yards during his three seasons.

However, the Bucs were last in the NFL in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing average. Bowles consistently asked Leftwich and other offensive assistants to improve the run game, but aside from one breakout outing against Seattle in Germany, it never came.

“I thought I held everybody accountable,” Bowles said. “It’s hard to change when you’ve been in that system your whole life.

That’s what you know and that’s what we won with in the past. That’s how it was built. Bruce was one of the X-factors and he knew the tweaks. He knew when to

Photos by DIRK SHADD | Times

Even with future Hall of Famer Tom Brady in control, Todd Bowles was displeased by a lack of offensive balance.

change and when not to change because he’s a very bright guy. Our coaches knew the system inside and out, but we needed to tweak it and we didn’t tweak it.

That became a problem.”

Bowles could have made a change during the season at offensive coordinator, appointing run game coordinator Harold Goodwin to call plays. He pleaded with other offensive assistants such as Christensen to “fix it,” but only Leftwich and Brady were responsible for game planning.

Bowles also has spent most of his career as a defensive coordinator and understands how undermining it can feel when you work for a helicopter head coach who checks your work.

“I can’t be an offensive coordinator,” Bowles said.

“Everybody thinks I can.

across. If it crosses a point where things just don’t come across anymore, you either change things or you don’t. And I made changes.”

Sink or swim together

Bowles, left, felt he had to get rid of coordinator Byron Leftwich when the ground game remained stagnant.

I know offense but from a defensive standpoint, I can’t stand up there and say, ‘Run this protection.’ It would be asinine for me to do. Do I know protections? Yeah.

Do I know routes? Yes. Do I know schemes and what people do? Yes.

“But that takes away from so much of what I supposedly am trying to be good at. You have to be the head coach and let your coaches coach. Bruce taught me that, too. That doesn’t make for a good staff to browbeat, but you get your point

Bowles and Mayfield are an interesting pairing, one that nearly happened with the Jets. Mayfield is likely down to his last chance to prove he is a viable starter in this league.

He at least was able to have a full offseason with the Bucs, integrating himself in the locker room and devouring Canales’ playbook. He formed fast relationships with teammates on and off the field.

“I’ve always made it very intentional to get to know the people,” Mayfield said.

“And you can also do that by just being yourself. You

let them know that, ‘Listen, I know, I’m flawed and I’m not perfect. I’m going be who I am, but I’m going to support you. And I’m going to work hard with you.’ And that’s the easiest way to get people’s respect and trust.

You go through the battles with them. You don’t put yourself in a victim category. You say you’re a part of it and you want to go make it happen.”

The NFL is a quarterback/coach league. Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid.

Brady/Bill Belichick/Arians. Matthew Stafford/Sean McVay. Brady/Bowles ne ver really got off the ground.

Now the Bucs and their head coach are back to hoping they can win enough games to reinvent themselves.

The first four games are brutal: at the Vikings, home against the Bears, home against the NFC champion Eagles on Monday Night Football and at the Saints.

That’s followed by a waytoo-early bye week that may or may not facilitate a change at quarterback.

Bowles still is handcuffed a bit. He wasn’t allowed to sign many free agents. But he has his own staff. He has a quarterback and offensive coordinator of his own choosing.

“Somehow we clicked personality-wise,” Bowles said of Mayfield, whom he met at Oklahoma when he was entering the NFL. “He had the bravado.”

Will it enough to get the Bucs back into the playoffs?

Or will the Bucs be changing the head coach and quarterback again?

“The system fits him perfect,” Bowles said. “He fits what our staff does very well. We’re excited about that. I’m excited to see what we’ll do.”

Contact Rick Stroud at rstroud@tampabay.com.

Follow @NFLSTROUD.

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Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

DOUBTERS

BEWARE Baker Mayfield, who knows about chips on shoulders, says Bucs are eager to prove they can win without Tom Brady.

T he reminders of the legend are here, and everywhere you turn, they keep popping into view.

The Lombardi Trophy is encased in the lobby of the AdventHealth Training Center. The Super Bowl 55 banner is hung in the Bucs’ indoor practice facility.

But Baker Mayfield and his new teammates are tired of hearing how they can’t win without the greatest quarterback of all time.

“The key pieces that were a huge part of that Super Bowl run, and their success RICK recently, they’re STROUD all still here,” MayBucs field said. “It’s a different hunger because, unfortunately, the narrative is that Tom’s gone and we suck.”

Mayfield, of course, is talking about Tom Brady, the GOAT on the boat in the Hillsborough River during that watery Super Bowl parade who still casts a long shadow over this franchise.

In many ways, Mayfield is the anti-hero. Whereas Brady was the 199th draft pick by the Patriots in 2000 who played 20 seasons and won six Super Bowls there and another in Tampa Bay, Mayfield was the No. 1 overall choice of the Browns in 2018 who also played

Associated Press (2013)

Baker Mayfield swallowed his pride coming out of high school when the major college offers never materialized. He walked on at Texas Tech and quickly became the starter.

for Panthers, Rams and Bucs — all since July of 2022.

But Mayfield is as comfortable being counted out as he is being counted on.

NBC’s Peter King recently listed the Bucs at No. 31 in his NFL power rankings. Sports Illustrated predicted they would go 2-15. “ That’s fortunate for us, because that makes our guys have a different type of motivation they might have not had recently,” Mayfield said. “It puts them into a different level of competition and trying to prove that our locker room is more than capable of keeping that success.”

Mayfield is looking to prove something as well.

In fact, he’s nothing if not ready

Associated Press (2017)

During his final season at Oklahoma, Mayfield brought home the Heisman. A few months later, he was the No. 1 draft pick.

to take on the biggest challenge he can find.

COLLEGE LEGACY CEMENTED AT OU You don’t walk on and win the job as the starting quarterback at Texas Tech and Oklahoma, lead the Sooners to the national semifinal and win the Heisman Trophy while becoming the No. 1 overall pick by playing it safe.

Despite winning a state championship for Lake Travis High School in Austin, Texas, Mayfield had only a handful of Division I-A offers to play football — from Florida Atlantic, Washington State, Army, New Mexico and Rice, where he also could play baseball.

A self-described “late bloomer,” Mayfield felt he had earned his chance to be a scholarship player.

That’s when his father, James, reminded him that even at just a half-inch or so over 6 feet, his son had never been afraid of a challenge. Why not walk on at Texas Tech, where he had dreamed of playing?

“At that time, being 17 years old, I felt like I deserved a scholarship after going 25-2 and winning a state championship at a premier program,” Mayfield said. “I know what I’m doing. I’m competitive.

I know I can play at the next level.

But he hit me at a tough spot. I was not happy, but I accepted the fact that I needed to walk on, and financially at the time, walking on in-state was the best decision. ...

“I got there in July and won the job the second week of training camp and started the first few games.”

In his first game, Mayfield passed for 413 yards and four touchdowns against SMU. A knee injury caused him to surrender the job to Davis Webb that year, but Mayfield passed for 2,315 yards with 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions to be named the Big 12’s Freshman Offensive Player of the Year.

Reports vary, but Mayfield didn’t think it was “fair” to have to compete for his job at Texas Tech and decided to walk on at Oklahoma, even though it required him to sit out a year.

“I grew up an Oklahoma fan, so that transition was a lot easier,” Mayfield said. “I had applied out of high school and was accepted, so that was why I was able to leave in December and enroll in the spring. But they had blocked my transfer, so I was just living in the dorms, doing normal class.

“Just another thing where I made the most of my opportunity, working out at the rec center, played intramural sports.

Enjoyed it until I got the NCAA notification that I could participate in team meetings if I was on the team and just showed up to the team dinner and introduced myself to Bob Stoops and told him I’d love an opportunity to play.”

Mayfield won the job, passing for 3,700 yards with 36 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 2015. He led the Sooners to the College Football Playoff semifinals, where they lost 37-17 to Clemson in the Orange Bowl; he finished fourth in the voting for the Heisman Trophy.

The next year he beat Auburn See QUARTERBACK, 12X

12X

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION QUARTERBACK continued from 10X 35-19 in the Sugar Bowl.

Finally, 2017 was full of trials and triumph. He faced criticism for planting the Sooners’ flag in the “O” of Ohio State and issued a public apology for grabbing his crotch against Kansas and suggesting their fans go “cheer on basketball.”

After winning his third straight Big 12 championship, and his first Heisman, the Sooners lost 54-48 to Georgia in the Rose Bowl, which served as a CFP semifinal.

The Jets owned the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft and then-coach Todd Bowles hit it off instantly with Mayfield.

“The other guys may have had better arms but he was the only one who had the demeanor to fit New York City and you’ve got to be a different guy to fit New York City,” Bowles said. “Sometimes the intangibles of a guy gets overlooked. The moxie. The gathering of the guys. They were going to follow him.”

HERE WE GO AGAIN Unfortunately for Bowles, the Browns felt the same way about Mayfield and took him No. 1 overall. But if you want to destroy a young quarterback, follow this template: The Browns had gone 1-31 under Hue Jackson when Mayfield arrived. Then halfway through his rookie year, Cleveland fired Jackson and made Gregg Williams the interim head coach. He was followed by Freddie Kitchens for one season and Kevin Stefanski.

Despite all that, Mayfield played like a top-10 quarterback, leading the Browns to an 11-5 record and wild-card playoff win over the Steelers in his third season, passing for 4,030 yards with 30

touchdowns and nine interceptions (counting playoffs).

Then in Week 2 the following season, receiver Anthony Schwartz didn’t finish a route and Mayfield injured his left non-throwing shoulder, tearing his labrum making a tackle after the interception.

Mayfield probably should not have continued playing, but he felt he could do the best job, even while hurt.

“There’s always the whatifs,” Mayfield said. “I’m a competitive guy. I want to be out there. If it came down to it to where I thought that somebody else was able to do it better than me at that physical condition? I’m a team guy first. I would have let it happen. But I felt I was able to go well enough.”

Mayfield went 6-8 as a starter while throwing 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. By the next year, the Browns were plotting to trade three first-round picks, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourthrounder for controversial Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Mayfield was left to twist in the wind before being traded to Carolina in July for a conditional fifth-round choice.

“You know, mentally, as soon as Cleveland decided to go with Deshaun Watson, I knew that I wasn’t going to be there,” Mayfield said. “It was just a matter of time. So I had already moved on at a certain point. You know, at the time wasn’t happy with it, but you just had to accept it move on to the next thing.”

ANOTHER FRESH START Once again, Mayfield had to compete for the job and he beat out Sam Darnold, going 1-5 until suffering a high ankle sprain. At the same time, the Panthers not

Associated Press (2021)

Baker Mayfield (6), then with the Browns, is helped to his feet after tackling Texans strong safety Justin Reid. Mayfield is injured on the play, but stays in the game.

Associated Press (2022)

Mayfield reacts after the Rams score against the Raiders. He had only two days to prep for the game.

only fired head coach Matt Rhule, they traded running back Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and receiver Robby Anderson to the Cardinals.

“Everybody in the league knew that Cleveland didn’t have options,” Mayfield said.

“They weren’t going to trade me. They knew they were just going to have to release me. So that was the game that, unfortunately, we had to play. Being out in limbo the whole offseason, and then showing up straight to training camp and meeting all my new teammates in Carolina.

“It was once again a fast

track. Trying to learn the offense. But the thing I’d say about Carolina, on the outside, it wasn’t successful. Absolutely not. There was a lot of drama going on. But the locker room, the guys were great. That’s what made it worth it.”

With five weeks remaining in the season, the Panthers waived Mayfield and he was claimed by the Rams, who had a Thursday night game against the Raiders.

Matthew Stafford was injured. The Rams were circling the drain. Mayfield had two days to prepare, the shortest a quarterback has

spent with a team before playing since 1995.

“That’s maybe my favorite memory of all time,” Mayfield said. “I mean, how quickly it happened. The waiver wire went through at 4 o’clock Eastern (time). I got to L.A. at 9:30 p.m. I got to the facility. Studied for like an hour and a half with (passing game coordinator) Zac Robinson, (quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator) Liam Coen, and (head coach) Sean McVay and we just sat there talking about it and they were like, ‘You’re on the Eastern Coast time right now. You need to go to bed.’ So I went back and then showed up the next morning and we had a walk through.”

McVay gave Mayfield a few protections and had a wristband designed for him.

“Sean didn’t call one damn play of it,” Mayfield said. “We laugh about it now. It was a lot of learning on the fly and just putting the pieces together.”

Mayfield didn’ t just win the game, he drove the Rams 98 yards in the final 1:45 with no timeouts, throwing the winning touchdown with nine sec-

onds left.

“I felt like I was studying for the SATs, cramming for a test last minute. ... (But) everything aligned. Sean said that. ‘Hey, this is a fivegame stretch. We’re not in a good place, this is something new for you, but let’s just make the most of it.’

That was an unbelievable opportunity that I was able to do.”

Of course, by his side for every step was wife Emily.

She was more than the unwitting co-star of Mayfield’s Progressive Insurance commercials.

Emily said she’s never seen Mayfield more fired up than he is right now with the Bucs. Likewise, there’s no way Baker would have made it this far without her.

“To say she’s meant everything is an understatement,” he said. “She’s four years older than me. She was already living in Los Angeles, had a stable job. Her siblings were out there. I came in and uprooted her whole life to now this unknown situation. We don’t know where we’re going to be.

I mean, she’s just been a trouper the whole time but completely supportive. And just, you know, obviously my ride or die, but just rolling with every punch and she’s been supportive the whole way.

“I would not have been able to do anything the past five years without her.”

Bucs history is full of quarterback cameos, from Steve Young to Byron Leftwich. Mayfield is hoping to make Tampa Bay his home, which means he has to win.

He has to prove everyone wrong one more time.

So count him out. He wouldn’t have it any other way.

“I can say with a smile on my face … yeah, please do,” Mayfield said.

Contact Rick Stroud at rstroud@tampabay.com.

Follow @NFLSTROUD.

Tampa Bay Times | Sunday, September 10, 2023

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

Times (2015)

Jameis Winston, center, didn’t mean career longevity for Dirk Koetter, left, or Lovie Smith.

Times (2010)

For a brief portion of the 2009 season, Byron Leftwich was Raheem Morris’ starter.

Times (2012)

Josh Freeman’s days under center were numbered in Greg Schiano’s second season.

Dozen years of dud duos

BY RICK STROUD

Times Staff Writer

The death spiral for NFL teams is when they are caught in the routine of changing the head coach and the quarterback.

This is what the Bucs’ have done for much of their existence, but it really became the norm for about a dozen years.

Through the 2008-2019 seasons, the Bucs missed the playoffs 12 years in a row. During that time, they only enjoyed three winning records. They were 9-7 under Jon Gruden in 2008; 10-6 under Raheem Morris in 2010; and 9-7 under Dirk Koetter in 2016.

In fact, the Bucs had six different head coaches in that time span: Gruden (2008), Morris (2009-11), Greg Schiano (201213), Lovie Smith (2014-15), Koetter (2016-18) and Bruce Arians (2019-21).

Continuity wins in the NFL. Until they drafted Jameis Winston No. 1 overall in 2015 and let him play five seasons, then added Tom Brady for three more, the Bucs had no stability under center.

Here’s a look at the quarterback and coach parings during the bleak years:

Year

Record

Head coach

Quarterbacks

Notable

2008

9-7

Jon Gruden

Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese,

Garcia started 11 games as the Bucs went winless in December to kick

Luke McCown

off the playoff drought and end Gruden’s seven-year tenure.

Byron Leftwich, Josh

Leftwich was named the starter, but he was benched after going 0-3

Johnson, Josh Freeman

(three picks, four touchdowns).

Josh Freeman, Josh

Freeman, who replaced Leftwich the year before, passed for 3,451

Johnson

yards, with 25 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Josh Freeman, Josh

Freeman started every game again, but his interceptions more than

2009

3-13

Raheem Morris

2010

10-6

Raheem Morris

2011

4-12

Raheem Morris

Johnson, Rudy Carpenter tripled (22) as the Bucs lost their final 10 games.

2012 2013 2014

7-9 4-12 2-14

Greg Schiano Greg Schiano Lovie Smith

2015

6-10

Lovie Smith

2016

9-7

Dirk Koetter

2017

5-11

Dirk Koetter

2018 2019

5-11 7-9

Dirk Koetter Bruce Arians

Josh Freeman, Dan

Freeman remained the starter, passing for 4,065 yards, his most in a

Orlovsky

Bucs uniform.

Josh Freeman, Dan

Glennon, a rookie, took over in Week 4, but the Bucs regressed and

Orlovsky, Mike Glennon

Schiano, as well as GM Mark Dominik, lost their jobs.

Josh McCown, Mike

McCown, who played under Smith in Chicago, went 1-10 in the games

Glennon

he started and lasted only one season.

Jameis Winston, Mike

Winston, the Pepsi Rookie of the Year, couldn’t save Smith’s job as the

Glennon, Ryan Griffin

Bucs lost their final four games.

Jameis Winston, Mike

Winston had back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons, a first for a career

Glennon, Ryan Griffin

start, but the Bucs lost a tiebreaker with Detroit to miss the playoffs.

Jameis Winton, Ryan

Winston played with a banged-up shoulder much of the year, as the

Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin

Bucs were last in the NFC South for the seventh time in 10 seasons.

Jameis Winston, Ryan

Winston started the year on a three-game suspension, then rotated in

Fitzpatrick, Ryan Griffin

and out of the starting lineup with Fitzpatrick before Koetter was axed.

Jameis Winston, Blaine

Winston set the franchise record for passing yards, but also led the

Gabbert, Ryan Griffin

league with a whopping 30 interceptions and five lost fumbles.

Contact Rick Stroud at rstroud@tampabay.com. Follow @NFLSTROUD.

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FORGET THE

OTHER FROGS;

WILL THIS

SLIPPER

FIT? I

TAMPA n theory, this was the perfect move. The team’s salary cap was overdrawn, and the quarterback’s resume was underwhelming. It was as if Baker Mayfield and the Bucs were destined to find each other in that gray area between hope and desperation.

But now that he’s here, now that he’s beaten out Kyle Trask, now that Todd Bowles has gambled his future on Mayfield, there is one large question that remains to be answered: Does this ever JOHN work?

ROMANO Has a quarterColumnist back taken near the top of the draft ever turned his career around after a sour divorce in his first NFL stop?

The good news? Yes! The qualifier? Only if you sort of squint.

There have been top picks that have gone on to long and lucrative careers with new teams, but they rarely live up to the hype of their draft status. Vinny Testaverde, for instance, escaped Tampa Bay after six mostly unsatisfying seasons and went on to become the No. 6 passer on the all-time yardage list when he retired. But does anybody really consider Testaverde a great quarterback?

In other words, a team can find success with a reformed phenom but it usually helps to adjust your expectations. Mayfield is no longer a sensation, no longer a sought-after star of prime-time TV commercials, but he doesn’t

really need to be in Tampa Bay. The Bucs, presumably, would be happy if Mayfield turns out to be a solid quarterback capable of taking the team to the postseason.

His stats say it’s possible while history says it’s doubtful. Considering the Bucs acquired him in free agency for a $4 million salary that’s not even in the top 32 of NFL quarterbacks in 2023, you can surmise how much faith other owners and general managers had in Mayfield’s potential.

But here’s the thing: Mayfield’s stats in Cleveland were not that bad. If you compare his first 60 games in the NFL, he had a higher passer rating (86.7) than Peyton Manning (84.8), more touchdowns (92) than Tom Brady (88) and more yards (14,125) than Matt Ryan (13,759).

He even won a playoff game in his first four seasons, which is more than Manning or Ryan could say.

The point is, Mayfield did not bomb in Cleveland. He threw too many interceptions and seemed to annoy some people, but he was nowhere near a Tim Couch or JaMarcus Russell-type of bust.

(There are three quarterbacks taken No. 1 who went on to win the Super Bowl with other teams that don’t really fit this conversation. John Elway and Eli Manning forced trades before ever playing for their original team, and Matthew Stafford spent 12 quality seasons in Detroit before winning with the Rams.)

With all of that in mind, here’s a look at some of the second-chance (or third- or fourth-) results for quarterbacks taken near the top of the draft, from some of the worst to some of the best: See MAYFIELD, 15X

JEFFEREE WOO | Times

After leaving Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles in his rearview mirror, Baker Mayfield is the new Bucs starter with a rare chance to be a No. 1 pick finding success elsewhere.

Tampa Bay Times |

Sunday, September 10, 2023

2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION MAYFIELD

continued from 14X

Ryan Leaf, No. 2 pick in 1998, San Diego Once considered a contemporary of Peyton Manning when they entered the 1998 draft, Leaf wore out his welcome in San Diego in spectacular fashion. He threw 33 interceptions to 13 touchdowns while getting a reputation for being lazy and irresponsible. The Bucs signed him to a free-agent deal in 2001, but Leaf quit rather than having his base salary reduced from $900,000 to $700,000 when he fell to No. 4 on the depth chart.

He signed with Dallas, where he went 0-3 as a starter and never played another regular-season snap.

David Carr, No. 1 pick in 2002, Houston

Times (2001)

Remember when Ryan Leaf was with the Bucs? It was a forgettable experiment.

Carr had the unfortunate luck of being drafted by an expansion team, and he paid the price by leading the league in sacks in three of his first four seasons. He stuck around Houston for five years before being released and signing a two-year deal with Carolina. He went 1-3 as a starter for the Panthers, got hurt, released and bounced around the NFL for another four years without ever starting a game.

Associated Press (2018)

Going high in the draft didn’t yield much success for Marcus Mariota, left, or Jameis Winston.

Jameis Winston/Marcus Mariota, Nos. 1 and 2 in 2015, Tampa Bay and Tennessee They were linked in the 2015 draft, and have remained somewhat entwined in the NFL. Mariota was 29-32 in Tennessee with an 89.6 rating.

Winston was 28-42 in Tampa Bay with an 86.9 rating. Winston has had flashes of success in New Orleans and Mariota was briefly a starter in Atlanta, but both seem destined to play journeyman backup roles in the NFL.

Jeff George, No. 1 pick in 1990, Indianapolis George, like Mayfield, had some initial success in the NFL. Enough so that the Colts were able to get two first-round picks and a third-round pick when they flipped him to Atlanta four years later.

George took the Falcons to the playoffs in his second season as a starter, but ended up with a pretty pedestrian career. He played for five teams and had a 46-78 record as a starter.

Times (1995)

Jeff George didn’t fade out immediately after leaving his first NFL team.

Sam Bradford, No. 1 pick in 2010, St. Louis

Associated Press (2001)

David Carr’s NFL future was pretty much sunk as soon as he was drafted by an expansion team.

He was the offensive Rookie of the Year in 2010 and that somehow enticed several other teams even after St. Louis gave up on him. Bradford was traded to Philadelphia for Nick Foles and a second-round pick in 2015, traded to Minnesota for a first-round pick in 2016 and then got a two-year deal in Arizona with $15 million guaranteed in 2018. For all that, he never played in a postseason game.

Jim Plunkett, No. 1 pick in 1971, New England Too many interceptions and too many losses in New England convinced the Patriots to turn to Steve Grogan when Plunkett got hurt. They shopped him around and somehow got San Francisco to give up three first-round picks and one second-round pick, which the 49ers almost immediately regretted. He was released two years later. Signed by Oakland as a backup in 1979, Plunkett became the rare No. 1 pick to excel elsewhere. He won two Super Bowls with the Raiders and went 8-2 in four playoff appearances.

Associated Press (2010)

Sam Bradford got a lot of second chances, with not much to show for them, after leaving

Steve Young, No. 1 pick in 1984, Tampa Bay This is cheating just a little because Young was the No. 1 pick in the supplemental draft after the USFL went belly up. He was 3-16 in his first two seasons with the Bucs and then got squeezed out when Vinny Testaverde was drafted No. 1 in 1987. Young was dealt to San Francisco for second- and fourth-round picks by Tampa Bay. You probably know the rest of the story. Young spent four years as Joe Montana’s understudy before winning a Super Bowl of his own and, eventually, getting elected to the Hall of Fame.

Associated Press (1981)

Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls with the Raiders, who were not the team that drafted him.

Times (1986)

Contact John Romano at jromano@tampabay.com.

Follow @Romano_TBTimes.

Before he was a Hall of Famer, Steve Young was barely holding on in Tampa Bay.

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

JEFFEREE WOO | Times (2022)

Bucs linebacker Lavonte David remains a steady presence on the defense, which received an infusion of youth and speed in the offseason.

SOUTH

UP NFC

16X

for

GRABS While most projections dismiss the Bucs’ chances, the division appears wide open.

BY JOEY KNIGHT | Times Staff Writer

B

TAMPA ucs fans will struggle to encounter a 2023 forecast flattering to their team.

Most predictions and power rankings banish Tampa Bay to the NFC South basement in Year One of the post-Tom Brady era. Depending on the projection, the Bucs either are too slow, too questionable at quarterback, too reliant on rookies or all of the above.

But another prevailing sentiment about the division — that it remains one of the most mediocre in the NFL — gives the Bucs a puncher’s chance. All four teams are breaking in a new full-time starting quarterback, including two entering their first or second year in the league.

We’ve provided an overview of all four teams, offering rationale for why each could finish first or fourth in the division.

See PROJECTIONS, 17X

Tampa Bay Times

| Sunday, September 10, 2023 |

2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION SEE PROJECTIONS, continued from 16X BUCS

FALCONS

ADAM HUNGER

|

Associated Press

JOHN BAZEMORE | Associated Press

Rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer turned heads during the preseason.

Expectations are quite high for rookie running back Bijan Robinson.

COACH: Todd Bowles (second season

FLATTERING 2022 STAT: Veteran LB

COACH: Arthur Smith (third season,

with Bucs, 8-9; sixth season overall, 34-50)

Lavonte David was the team’s highest-graded defender, per Pro Football Focus.

14-20)

FEEBLE 2022 STAT: Run game finished

KEY ADDITIONS: S Jessie Bates, TE

2022 RECORD: 8-9, won NFC South

(lost 31-14 to Cowboys in NFC Wild-Card Game) KEY ADDITIONS: QB Baker Mayfield, LG

Matt Feiler KEY SUBTRACTIONS: QB Tom Brady,

WR Russell Gage, RB Leonard Fournette ROOKIE TO WATCH: WR Trey Palmer.

Fleet sixth-round pick performed his way into the No. 3 spot during the preseason.

2022 RECORD: 7-10, fourth in NFC South

yards a carry, per Pro Football Focus.

FEEBLE 2022 STAT: Defense ranked

27th overall in the NFL (362.1 yards per game).

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FIRST: Rob-

dead last in the NFL (76.9 yards per game).

Jonnu Smith, DE Calais Campbell, CB Jeff Okudah

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FIRST: An

KEY SUBTRACTION: QB Marcus Mariota

infusion of speed on the defensive front could create havoc and turnovers.

inson is the real deal, and second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder manages Smith’s offensive efficiently.

ROOKIE TO WATCH: RB Bijan Robinson.

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FOURTH:

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FOURTH:

Brady’s not un-retiring, the offense lacks speed, and new coordinator Dave Canales is unproven.

PANTHERS

Unanimous All-American projected as a cornerstone for Smith’s run-centric offensive scheme.

Ridder becomes a liability, and the defense (27th in NFL in 2022) continues to struggle.

FLATTERING 2022 STAT: Four different

running backs averaged at least 4.8

SAINTS

ERIK VERDUZCO | Associated Press

TYLER KAUFMAN

|

Associated Press

Carolina selected ’Bama quarterback Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick.

Derek Carr has a plethora of weapons at his disposal in New Orleans.

COACH: Frank Reich (first season with

FLATTERING 2022 STAT: Finished with

COACH: Dennis Allen (second season

FLATTERING 2022 STAT: Team’s 48

Panthers; sixth season overall, 40-33-1)

10th-best rushing offense in the league (130.0 yards per game).

with Saints, 7-10); fifth season overall, 15-38)

sacks were tied for fifth most in the NFL.

FEEBLE 2022 STAT: Panthers managed

2022 RECORD: 7-10, third in NFC South

league’s second-worst turnover margin (minus-11).

2022 RECORD: 7-10, second in NFC

South KEY ADDITIONS: RB Miles Sanders, WR

Adam Thielen, LB Justin Houston, TE Hayden Hurst, S Vonn Bell KEY SUBTRACTIONS: QB Sam Darnold,

only 35 sacks all year (25th in NFL).

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FIRST: The

offensive reinforcements help Young, who was sharp in the preseason finale.

KEY ADDITIONS: QB Derek Carr, DT Kha-

len Saunders, DT Nathan Shepherd, TE Jimmy Graham KEY SUBTRACTIONS: DT Shy Tuttle, DT

RB D’Onta Foreman, WR D.J. Moore

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FOURTH:

David Onyemata

ROOKIE TO WATCH: QB Bryce Young.

Young ranks among the NFL leaders in growing pains, and the pass rush continues to struggle.

ROOKIE TO WATCH: DT Bryan Bresee.

No. 1 overall draft pick showed franchise-quarterback flashes in August.

No. 29 pick progressed all preseason and should be a regular in the rotation.

FEEBLE 2022 STAT: Saints had the

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FIRST: Carr,

the division’s most experienced quarterback, is surrounded by talented veteran weapons.

WHY THEY COULD FINISH FOURTH:

The defensive front has been rebuilt, and edge-rush extraordinaire Cameron Jordan is 34.

Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls.

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2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

What will

2023 bring?

Check back in Week 4

CHLOE TROFATTER | Times

The Bucs haven’t had a running back eclipse 1,000 yards in a season since Doug Martin did it in 2015. Can second-year back Rachaad White buck the trend?

I

TAMPA f you like predictions but crave certitude, you’ve probably come to the wrong place. There’s a reason why the NFL is the Any Given Sunday league.

That said, there are some definite headwinds in any season that can steer the fortunes of a franchise.

The Bucs generally are not regarded as a very good team by most of the RICK usual punSTROUD dits. Sports Bucs Illustrated had the Bucs listed 31st in the NFL power rankings. Only the Kyler Murray-less Cardinals were regarded worse.

The Bucs have an under/ over in total wins of 6.5.

Those forecasting skills may be off or spot on. But we’ve got a couple bold guesses of our own.

Bucs will go 2-2 in first 4 games (and why it’s important) This is the gauntlet of games any Bucs fan must worry about.

Tampa Bay opens at Minnesota today. U.S. Bank Stadium is a tough place to play. Loud, indoor venue with Vikings Skol chants.

Under first-year coach Kevin O’Connell last season, the Vikings got off to an 8-1 start and finished 13-4, winning the NFC North. It’s the first real game for Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield and offensive coordinator Dave Canales.

Nothing a bou t this opener spells W for the Bucs. 0-1.

Next up, the Bucs have a must-win game at home vs.

Chicago. Bears fans will fill Raymond James Stadium.

Quarterback Justin Fields is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the league, but somehow Tampa Bay will prevail.

1-1.

The Bucs play on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The defending NFC champions are better and they know it. 1-2.

Finally, an upset to keep the season from spiraling out of control early. The Bucs play at New Orleans in Week Four. New quarterback Derek Carr and Co. will be coming off a tough game at Green Bay but could be 3-0 at this point. Bucs receiver Mike Evans renews his rivalry with Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. It’s also the first game back from suspension for Saints running back Alvin Kamara. No matter, Bucs win to go 2-2.

That gets them to a muchtoo-early bye week. Here’s

STACY BENGS | Associated Press

The Bucs open the season on the road at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. The first four weeks of the season will provide quite the test for Tampa Bay.

another prediction if the first one goes awry: An 0-4 start could necessitate a quarterback change to Kyle Trask and put coach Todd Bowles on a very hot seat.

After that, the Bucs play six games against rookie or second-year starting quarterbacks.

Rachaad White will rush for 1,000 yards

Quick. When was the last time the Bucs had a running back reach that single-season milestone?

It was Doug Martin, who rushed for 1,402 yards and six touchdowns in 2015.

In fact, the Bucs have only had a running back go over 1,000 yards twice in the past 12 years and it was Martin again in 2012.

It was a little shocking to hear Canales say he wasn’t really sure what to expect from White when asked about him recently.

“I’m still learning him, honestly,” Canales said. “I just know there’s a real talent. He’s got a great pace to how he plays. He’s patient.

Not just in his reads. He’s patient and lets the day come to him, where it’s not like it’s two plays and he’s gassed out for a while.”

That’s good because Canales wants to run the ball a lot this season and is under an order to do so.

Rookie Kenneth Walker

III rushed for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns in this offense in Seattle a year ago. It happens again with White.

Calijah Kancey has 10 sacks The Bucs’ first-round pick missed nearly all of training camp and the preseason with a calf strain. That’s unfortunate and a setback that could lead to a slow start.

But the rookie from Pittsburgh is an explosive pass rusher and brings muchneeded speed to the middle of the Bucs defense.

Playing alongside Vita Vea, who will command most of the double teams, Kancey’s quickness and

surprising strength should allow him to get to the quarterback.

Tampa Bay also is deeper with edge rushers. If Shaquil Barrett regains his quick first step, if Joe Tryon-Shoyinka finishes at the top of his pass rush, quarterbacks will have to step up in the pocket and Kancey should be there to clean it up.

He had 14.5 sacks in his last 23 games at Pitt.

Double-digit sacks are rare at the defensive tackle position in the NFL but Kancey can get there if he stays healthy.

Contact Rick Stroud at rstroud@tampabay.com.

Follow @NFLSTROUD.

DIRK SHADD | Times

If rookie Calijah Kancey can stay healthy, producing double-digit sacks like he did at Pitt is a possibility.

Tampa Bay Times

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Sunday, September 10, 2023 |

2023 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SPECIAL SECTION

10 CLARENCE HILL | Star-Telegram

New Cowboys QB Trey Lance says he got a warm welcome from starter Dak Prescott.

Trey Lance lasts one season with the Cowboys

Any thoughts of Lance — the No. 3 overall pick in 2021 — stepping in at some point and supplanting Dak Prescott at quarterback are delusional. Prescott has too much leverage (a $62 million cap hit in 2024) for the Cowboys to unload him. We see Lance — acquired from the 49ers for a fourth-round pick — performing well as a backup, allowing Dallas to get trade value for him in 2024.

Who wins the Super Bowl?

Who gets fired first? We offer our hypotheses here.

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Mike Evans records another 1,000yard season While conventional wisdom suggests the retirement of Tom Brady imperils Evans’ streak of nine consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons, we’re bucking convention. The greatest vertical threat in franchise lore, Evans’ route tree will diversify in 2023, allowing more targets. Evans himself said new coordinator Dave Canales’ system features patterns even he hasn’t seen.

A BOLD, OR BOGUS, FORECAST

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rguably no sport on the planet provides a more soap-opera sensation than the NFL, which leaves its viewers pondering the direction of myriad story lines JOEY KNIGHT and subplots each week. Bucs Guessing the outcome of said story lines is half the fun.

We’re attempting to do that here, offering 10 projections for the 2023 season ahead of its formal kickoff. If and when any come to fruition, don’t forget who forecast them first.

JEFFEREE WOO

| Times

Bucs veteran Mike Evans is hoping to inch even closer to Jerry Rice’s NFL record.

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AC/DC selected for Super Bowl halftime show The globe’s premier sporting event hasn’t featured an actual vintage rock act since The Who played Super Bowl 44 in 2010. We see that drought ending at next February’s game in Las Vegas. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo recently gave the idea momentum by lobbying for the Australian blues-rock icons. To which we say to Lombardo: We salute you.

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Anthony Richardson named Offensive Rookie of the Year

The seemingly consensus take on the former Gators quarterback: enormous potential, minimal polish. Bestowed with fleetness belying his frame, Richardson (6-foot-4, 244 pounds) very well could dazzle one week and disappoint the next. But we see him really finding a groove — and extra gear — at some point in November. By then, Colts fans and casual observers won’t be able to turn away.

Associated Press

Associated Press

Detroit’s rookie Jahmyr Gibbs

Invision/Associated Press (2016)

Could Angus Young and AC/DC bring the thunder to the next Super Bowl halftime show? Or will dirty deeds block their way?

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Jets end September with losing record

The Jets’ efforts to reinvent themselves with Aaron Rodgers (and other veterans) resembles the Bucs’ makeover with Tom Brady in 2020 with one glaring difference: The front end of New York’s schedule is far more formidable than Tampa Bay’s was three seasons ago. Rodgers and Co. get the Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles over the season’s first six weeks. Things don’t get much easier from there.

Associated Press

Matthew Stafford has been beset by injuries of late.

FRANK FRANKLIN II | Associated Press

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Matthew Stafford retires

Better to walk away from a big contract (Stafford signed a four-year, $160 million extension in March 2022) than hobble away. Stafford is 35, the Rams are regressing badly, and his offensive line remains a liability. Moreover, his 2022 season was marred by concussions and spinal-cord contusions, and preceded by elbow surgery. At this point, retirement seems more likely than a resurgence.

Raiders’ Josh McDaniels is the first coach fired

We disagree with the oddsmakers who project the Bucs’ Todd Bowles to be the first coach canned in 2023. As history has shown, the Glazers simply don’t do in-season dismissals. We also don’t see new Commanders owner Josh Harris setting a rash tone for his regime by giving Ron Rivera a quick hook.

That leaves McDaniels, who won six games last season and has no longterm answer at quarterback.

Yep, we project Detroit to build off the momentum of 2022 and end its seven-year postseason drought. Our other NFC playoff teams: The Saints, Eagles, 49ers, Vikings, Cowboys and Giants.

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Can Aaron Rodgers work some Tom Brady-like magic with the Jets?

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Lions among NFC playoff teams

SETH WENIG | Associated Press

Unfortunately for the Bills and their fans, the 2022 season stopped short of a victory parade.

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Bills not among AFC playoff teams

Josh Allen’s unmistakable talents notwithstanding, Buffalo’s world title window seems to have shut. The AFC East has evolved into arguably the most competitive in football, and the final one-third of Buffalo’s schedule is an absolute bear (at Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins; home versus Cowboys, Patriots). Those we project for the AFC playoffs: Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Jets, Bengals, Chargers.

Brock Purdy, 49ers win Super Bowl 58

Purdy’s emergence last winter — from the final pick of the 2022 draft to 49ers folk hero — was no fluke. The dude won all five of his regular-season starts and posted a 107.3 passer rating. This year, the offensive ensemble around him — from Brandon Aiyuk to George Kittle to Christian McCaffrey — remains among the best in football. We see the Niners topping the Chiefs in a Super Bowl 54 rematch.

GODOFREDO A. VÁSQUEZ

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Associated Press

The last player selected in the 2022 NFL draft, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy won all five of his regular-season starts last year.

Associated Press

The future appears pretty bleak for Raiders coach Josh McDaniels.

Contact Joey Knight at jknight@tampabay.com. Follow @TBTimes_Bulls.

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