Experts: Everything points to a busy season

EXPERTS: EVERYTHING POINTS TO ANOTHER BUSY HURRICANE SEASON

BATTEN down the hatches for another nasty hurricane season.

Nearly every natural force and a bunch of human-caused ones — more than just climate change — have turned the last several Atlantic hurricane seasons into deadly and expensive whoppers. The season looks like another note in a recordbreaking refrain because all those ingredients for disaster are still going strong, experts warn.

They say these factors point to but don’t quite promise more trouble ahead: the natural climate event La Nina, humancaused climate change, warmer ocean waters, the Gulf of Mexico’s deep hot Loop Current, increased storminess in Africa, cleaner skies, a multi-decade active storm cycle and massive development of property along the coast. “It’s everything and the kitchen sink,” Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said. In the past two years, forecasters ran out of names for storms. It’s been a costly rogue’s gallery of major hurricanes — with winds of at least 111 mph (179 kph) — striking land in the past five years: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Florence, Michael, Dorian, Humberto, Laura, Teddy, Delta, Zeta, Eta, Iota, Grace and Ida. “That’s the pattern that we’ve been locked into. And what a statistic to think about: From 2017 to 2021, more Category four and five (hurricanes) made US landfall than from 1963 to 2016,” National Hurricane Centre Director Ken Graham said in an Associated Press interview in front of two hurricanehunter planes that fly into the storms. Graham, echoing most experts and every pre-season forecast, said “we’ve got another busy one” coming. Last year, the Atlantic set a record for six above average hurricane seasons in a row, smashing the old record of three in a row, and forecasters predict a seventh. The only contrary sign is that for the first time since 2014, a storm didn’t form before the official June 1 start of the hurricane season. • Here’s what may make the Atlantic chaotic this season:

LA NINA

One of the biggest influences on Atlantic hurricane seasons occurs half a world away in the temporarily cooling waters of the equatorial Pacific, the natural cyclical phenomenon called La Nina, the more dangerous for the United States flip side to El Nino. La Nina alters weather across the world, including making hurricane development in the Atlantic more likely. It starts with the Sahel region of Africa, where the seeds of the many of the strongest midseason hurricanes, called Cape Verde storms, form. That often dry region is wet and stormy in La Nina and that helps with early formation. One weather feature that can decapitate storms or prevent them from forming in the first place is high cross winds called shear. But La Nina pretty much deadens shear, which is “a huge factor” for more storm activity, University of Albany hurricane researcher Kristen Corbosiero said.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Studies show that climate change is making hurricanes wetter, because warm air can hold more moisture, and are making the strongest storms a bit stronger. Storms also may be stalling more, allowing them to drop more rain over the same place, like in 2017’s Harvey, where more than 50 inches (127 centimetres) fell in one spot. They are also rapidly intensifying more often, experts say. While studies point to an increasing number of the strongest storms because of

By SETH BORENSTEIN AP Science Writer humancaused climate Hurricanes often spawn tornadoes far from the centre of the storm. They are not as strong as regular tornadoes and only last a few minutes. HURRICANE FACT FILE change, scientists still disagree over what global warming means for the overall frequency of all storms. Some scientists see a slight decrease because of fewer weaker storms, but others, such as MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel, see an overall increase in the total number of storms. A study by Emanuel found a general increase in Atlantic storms over 150 years, with some exceptions. That increase is too large to be directly linked to climate change, Emanuel said, “but it could be indirectly related to climate change” especially if global warming is changing

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ESSENTIALS TO PREPARE AHEAD OF THE STORM

YOU should have enough water on hand to use for both drinking and washing. Ice should also be stored in a freezer or cooler.

THE most important thing you can do as the hur- ricane season approaches is to get yourself, your family and your home prepared.

Hurricanes typically form from June 1 to November 30.

While there’s no avoid- ing it, it’s not difficult or costly to stock up on basic essential items that will help you weather any po- tential storms.

When preparing for a hurricane, it is important to not only be aware of critical information about the storm itself, but also to know about the differ- ent kinds of supplies you should have on hand.

Gaining an adequate amount of supplies for your household in advance will save you the frustration of hitting the stores right before the rough winds and rains emerge. Your investment in emer- gency supplies could save you money, or even a life if storms become severe.

• Here are the top 10 items to keep on hand to last the duration of the storm. 1. Water: You should have enough water on hand to use for both drinking and washing. Ice should also be stored in a freezer or cooler.

2. Non-perishable items:

Keep an adequate supply of canned goods and other non-perishable items in the event that you aren’t able to rely on your refrigera- tor. You should also ensure that you have a manual can opener on hand. 3. Cash: Banks and ATMs may not be open or available for extended pe- riods. Ensure that you have cash available to pay for emergency items during the storm. 4. First Aid Kit: Many drug stores sell this emer- gency item. If you’re putting one together on your own, consider including bandages, pain medication, cotton balls, gauze rolls, an- tibiotic ointment, cleansing wipes and anti-inch lotion or cream.

5. Flashlights, candles

and matches: In the event that you lose power, keep flashlights, candles and matches available in your home.

6. Radio (battery-oper-

ated): In order to keep up withnewsandalerts,ensure that you have a battery-op- erated radio on hand and extra packs of batteries.

7. Phone charger:

Ensure that you keep your cell- phone fully charged. Con- sider investing in a portable charger in the event of a power failure. 8. Medication: Make sure that you have a sufficient supply of any prescribed medicine, pain killers or vi- tamins.

9. Hygienic supplies:

En- sure that you have a suffi- cient supply of toiletries on hand. 10. Gas and oil: Fill your car tanks and have an ex- tra supply of oil and gas for generators.

NEMA ‘READY’ WITH $500,000 SET ASIDE

By Tribune Staff

A CABINET minister says the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is ready for hurricane season with $500,000 set aside.

Myles Laroda, Minister of State with responsibility for the Disaster Reconstruction Authority (DRA), said during the budget debate that the agency has appropriate “preparedness and response plans” in place.

He also said: “There’s an allocation of $1m in the 2022/2023 capital budget for hurricane precautions. And the sum of $500,000 is allocated in the recurrent budget for NEMA.”

He added: “There is an ongoing collaboration with other key stakeholders in government and private sector, regional and international organisations to ensure that all critical systems are in place and functioning. The impact of collective preparation efforts increase our capacity to quickly recover in the aftermath of a storm.”

After Hurricane Dorian in 2019, NEMA has been building capacity and, in collaboration with its partners, has done an assessment of each island in The Bahamas and their readiness for a natural disaster.

“NEMA is in the process of sharing the findings of the National Disaster Preparedness baseline assessment with disaster management practitioners and the wider community for use and has taken action to mitigate hazard impacts and for updating Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans,” Mr Laroda said.

NEMA has also acquired state of the art telecommunications equipment to get the message out before and after a hurricane and to allow it to conduct meetings virtually when necessary.

In addition, the Disaster Management Committee was able to conduct training sessions with Family Island administrators and has been engaged with regional and international partners.

Mr Laroda added: “With grant support from the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) the Organisation of American States and Cable Bahamas, NEMA was able to procure equipment and conducted a series of community emergency response team (CERT) training sessions for persons in the tourism sector.”