External security focus

extreme prejudice, and it worked for a brief while but, then again, the law of supply and demand took over after a month or so.

Reality bites, sound and fury notwithstanding.

There is no substitute for better agricultural productivity whether in our farms or pig pens, and it’s a problem that will take time to resolve.

The bureaucrats at DA know the solutions, but implementation is always slow, and the LGUs which are supposed to be the front liners, are not in sync.

We would have welcomed an honest admission of the dismal realities of our agricultural sector and a plea for the public to have a little more patience as solutions are medium if not long-term, rather than increasing Kadiwa’s unsustainable reach.

But take rosy promises with a grain of salt. Leaders need to inspire, even though the aspirations may be unreachable.

We have observed that across seven presidencies. Looking back, we played along in four of these. In the autumn of our life, we know better.

Still, hardly did the president mention the growing public debt, now at P14.1 trillion, comprising 63 percent of our GDP.

Our economic managers tell us not to worry, as 63 percent is still lower than Japan or the US of A’s debt to GDP ratio, but that’s comparing apples and our nearly extinct atis.

Neither was there a call for Congress to lower their greed as they partake of their take in the pork barrel, or upon bureaucrats to temper their waste as they merrily spend every centavo in their budget.

The boldest statement was that he would not “tolerate corruption or incompetence” even if the biggest perpetrators were his audience in the same cavernous hall.

He would accept resignations from the police generals involved in criminal syndicates, he declared, and as if in prepared cadence, the following day, 18 PNP officials were shown the door.

But if indeed these officials have been identified, why just make them resign?

Harsher measures and firmer resolve should have been the SONA’s tune.

One after all does not have to be in “unity” with malefactors, especially from those who are sworn to preserve law and order.

Given where we are at this time, one would hope for more drastic action and bolder directions.

But we realize that unlike his predecessor, this president is conflict averse.

But though unity is still his over-arching guidon, uniting everyone as in “hating kapatid” whether in pork or perks, and making “everybody happy,” coming up with the usual “win-win” solutions, just postpone the day when hungry stomachs and grim future prospects make the public realize that it can no longer be “business as usual.”

With such a huge mandate, we had hoped Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. would be a reforming president, one who would act with purposive urgency driven by a sense of mission not just to redeem the family image, but to leave a legacy truly his own.

Yet, to be fair, he has four more years before another electoral season makes him a lame duck.

Such is the praxis of our political system. One year to learn; four years to act; and one year to step back and wait for the succession.

Meanwhile, in Broadway, a new musical is inaugurated. It is the story of a lady who has taken not only her country but the world as a stage.

“Here Lies Love” is the story of Imelda Romualdez Marcos. In the new branding, love seems to be buzzword, whether in tourism revival or in the optics of national unity.

The lights are on. The cameras are ready.

Action! Is what we need.

THE Armed Forces of the Philippines is taking the right step in shifting its efforts from internal security operations (ISO) to external ones (ESO).

The shift is nothing less than tectonic, as it rearranges the priorities of our entire military from its previous search-and-destroy operations against a two-pronged enemy: Maoist rebels throughout the country and Muslim separatists in southern Philippines.

Recent news reports tell us that the military appears to be gaining the upper hand against the communist-led New People’s Army, with the latter having been decimated from a peak strength of 25,000 guerrillas in the 1980s to an all-time low of just 1,800 operating in only two guerrilla fronts.

On the other hand, the Muslim separatist movement in Mindanao has been effectively contained through political negotiations that allowed them to exercise autonomy under the central government. With internal security threats now under virtual control and our next-door neighbor claiming ownership even of our Exclusive Economic Zone in the South China Sea, the national government should build a credible defense posture capable of upholding national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The AFP should be able to launch increased aerial and surface maritime patrols through modern air and naval assets and well-trained ground forces. At this point, our military can already deploy additional surface patrol ships to increase its presence in the Kalayaan Group of Islands about 90 percent of the time, which is a dramatic increase from the baseline of 30 percent in 2022.

Beware the Greeks bearing gifts

UNDER our system of government, the conduct of foreign policy resides with the Office of the President. Whoever is the President, it is he or she that directs the foreign policy directions of the country and no one else. One important reason for this is that the country must speak with one voice on foreign policy issues.

Once a President leaves office, that power is removed.

It does not mean, however, that his or her opinion is no longer valued because it is but this has to be done in formal settings like a National Security Council meeting wherein an ex-President is a member.

It appears that unbeknownst to the public, the Chinese Ambassador and former President Duterte have been meeting and having discussions over the past several months. We do not know the reasons behind these meetings but at the very least, it is highly unusual.

The public would almost certainly have not gotten wind of it had former President Duterte himself not discuss it in his TV program.

Then last week, to the surprise of many, the former President was in Beijing being accorded a rare audience with no less than President XI Jin Ping. As we all know, when PBBM assumed office, he completely reversed the foreign policy directions of the last administration with regard to the WPS, China and the United States.

He now prefers the multilateral approach to finding solutions to the WPS problem and, more importantly, he has chosen to expand our military alliance with the United States by strengthening the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. He has allowed four additional Philippine military bases to the original five the US can jointly and conducted the largest Balikatan military exercise ever.

This shows the two leaders have very different appreciation of the geopolitical situation in the region. Unlike his predecessor, PBBM has chosen to anchor our defense buildup on our Mutual Defense Treaty with the US instead of simply relying on our bilateral relations with China. By doing this, PBBM simply took advantage of other options available to him. PBBM, however, reiterated that our relationship with China is vital and will be maintained or even expanded.

With due respect to former President Rodrigo Duterte who I am sure has the interest of the country at heart, he should not be meeting regularly with the Chinese Ambassador and then going public with what they are talking about.

If at all, he should write a confidential memo to PBBM to inform him about what had transpired in the conversation. It may be doing the country more harm than good.

The increase in AFP presence in the area has allowed them to monitor sea lines of communications and to put up monitoring stations/detachments to detect and monitor foreign ships, track, and subject them to interdiction operations.

We are glad the AFP has improved its capabilities and presence in strategic locations with the effective presence not only in the Kalayaan Group of Islands but also in the Batanes Group of Islands in the north and in Tawi-Tawi province in the country’s southernmost tip.

The expansion of AFP presence throughout the archipelago is being complemented by initiatives to establish partnerships with other countries that will allow the military to leverage its capabilities through information sharing and joint and combined maritime exercises.

The recalibration of the AFP focus from internal security to external defense is definitely needed right now since Chinese ships have been showing aggressive behavior and openly confronting our Coast Guard and Navy vessels through verbal warnings, the use of water cannons and dangerous maneuvers in disputed areas.

We must stand up to China’s gunboat diplomacy in the South China Sea, or else end up losing what is ours according to a rules-based international order that our next-door neighbor conveniently ignores.

The sentiments of former President Duterte with regard to our relationship with the United States and his very open preference for China to the point that he openly referred to our country as a province of China are indeed well known to all of us. Whether he said it us a joke or not is left for the readers and listeners to think of as to what his real intentions were when he said it.

We tried his formula for six years and it did not work.

Even with all his visits to Beijing and his almost subservience behavior towards China, as his critics would love to point out, he failed to convince China to respect the Hague Arbitral Ruling of 2016 or allow our fishermen to fish in our own exclusive economic zone in the West Philippine Sea that it has occupied.

In fact, the problem just got worst.

At this stage of the ballgame, and regardless of his position on the WPS issue, he should allow PBBM to craft his own foreign policy based on his own interpretation and appreciation of the geopolitical situation in the region.

It is important to show the world that we are speaking with one voice on the WPS issue and that 83 percent of Filipinos agree with his foreign policy directions.

But this is perhaps why the Ambassador goes to see him because he knows that whatever he tells him will be made public which is probably the whole intention of the visits in the first place.

For all we know, the Ambassador wants to drive a wedge between FPRRD and PBBM to create problems in the administration.

The statement, for instance, that the country will become a graveyard in case hostilities will breakout in this part of the world is exactly what the Chinese Ambassador wants.

He also mentioned the issue of nuclear weapons being stored in the country which is prohibited by our Constitution. He seems to be assuming that the additional military joint bases will be used by the US to store nuclear weapons without the knowledge of the Philippine government. He does not seem to have confidence this administration will not allow this to happen.

If there are disagreements, these should be taken up and settled within the four corners of a conference room.

As the old saying goes, we have to beware the Greeks bearing gifts.

We have to remember that the reason why the Chinese Ambassador is here is to promote the interest of his country not our country’s.

But he should do this using the standard diplomatic protocols and not brazen warnings and threats.

Had the former president succeeded using his formula, PBBM in all probability would not have taken the steps that he did.

Let us hope, therefore, that FPRRD, in spite of all his misgivings and disagreements, can still partner with PBBM to chart a way forward because the stakes are simply too high.

At the end of the day, it is all for the sake of the country.

Sedition clampdown hits ‘ordinary’ Hong Kongers

HONG KONG—Single mother Law Oi-wah pleaded guilty to sedition in an almost inaudible voice, as her 12-year-old son watched from a few feet away in a Hong Kong court.

Arrested in March, the 48-year-old was accused under a colonial-era law for sharing dozens of pro-democracy social media posts authored by others, and then denied bail.

But Law is not an activist, and her posts received sparse reactions.

“My mother has been away for a month...

Please let my mother come home,” Law’s son wrote to the court, which sentenced her in April to four months in jail.

Her prosecution is one in a string of sedition convictions in the city, where critics say Beijing is tightening its authoritarian grip.

After massive and at times violent prodemocracy protests in 2019, and Beijing’s subsequently imposed national security law, Hong Kong has used the sedition offense -created under British colonial rule -- to charge residents for the first time in over 50 years.

From service industry workers to delivery staff, at least 20 of the more than 30 people charged with sedition have not been activists nor politicians.

Their cases receive little public attention as they are swiftly convicted as national security threats by the city’s lowest-level courts.

Their “seditious” acts have mostly involved criticizing authorities—the government, police and courts—through posters, stickers or on social media platforms. The trials are also handled by judges picked by the government to rule on security cases, and bail for defendants has become the exception, not the norm.

Prominent activists and journalists charged with sedition have put up high-profile legal defenses, but most residents accused of the crime choose not to fight after they are denied bail, due to the perceived slim chance of success, former defendants and lawyers told AFP.

Plead for quicker exit Kenji, who requested a pseudonym to avoid reprisals, said his will to fight his sedition case collapsed after he spent five months in pre-trial detention.

Of the 18 sedition defendants convicted at the magistrate level, more than 80 percent pleaded guilty within three months—triple the rate of all cases handled in 2022

“When you are inside... you would spend all day thinking whether the prosecution would add an actual national security charge on you,” he told AFP.

“Although you might find it very unfair, you would offer a guilty plea in exchange for a quicker exit,” said Kenji, who was arrested for publicly criticizing officials.

Sedition carries a penalty of up to two years in prison, but a guilty plea can reduce the sentence by a third. Of the 18 sedition defendants convicted at the magistrate level, more than 80 percent pleaded guilty within three months— triple the rate of all cases handled in 2022.

On average, they were sentenced to about 200 days in prison, according to an AFP tally. The city’s security minister, Chris Tang, has said the sedition charge remains a necessary tool to plug gaps in the national security law.

“Some other existing laws... such as sedition can handle some situations for now,” Tang told broadcaster RTHK in April.

The law covers acts, speech or publications deemed to have any “seditious intentions”, which include raising “discontent or disaffection”, promoting “feelings of ill-will” and inciting violence.

The United Nations Human Rights Committee has said it is concerned about the “overly broad interpretation and arbitrary application” of both the sedition and security laws—warning against using them to suppress dissent.

Senior officials say the laws are clear.

‘Wide and mysterious’

But Kim Hau, whose tea shop was raided by police last February when she was arrested for sedition, said the offense remains “wide and mysterious” to her.

Hau had posted flyers questioning the city’s COVID vaccination scheme and urged people to boycott a government location-tracking antipandemic app.

During the raid, her phone was confiscated, and she was later sentenced to seven months in jail, with judge Peter Law saying she and a co-defendant were “venting the hatred in their heart”.

“They define something as seditious when they feel you are urging people to directly or indirectly act against the government,” she told AFP.

One lawyer working on sedition cases agreed the offense has a “lack of legal certainty”.

“Such ambiguity is something they want,” the lawyer, who requested anonymity, told AFP. “It’s just enough to scare off the ordinary.”

The burden of proof is also placed on defendants, they said, explaining that taking a stand to “clarify their intention” is not something the average resident would do.

“Meanwhile, it’s rather easy for the prosecution to deduce the intention backwards with their own interpretation of certain words said by the accused.”

‘The red line’

Homemaker Chiu Mei-ying, 68, found herself in the crosshairs of authorities when she was charged last April with saying “seditious words”.

“All I did was utter one sentence,” she told AFP.

Three months earlier, Chiu and preacher Garry Pang had attended an activist’s conviction hearing and verbally criticised the magistrate judge.

The trial ended up costing her over HK$300,000 ($38,400).

Chiu eventually gave up on her appeal and served out her three-month sentence so that she wouldn’t have to report to the police three times a week -- a bail condition stipulated for her appeal process.

After all that, “I still don’t understand what sedition is about,” she said. “I have only learned that the red line can be very wide.” AFP