IN BRIEF

Outlook for peso remains bright

THE outlook for the Philippine peso remains bright, with the expected continued support from monetary authorities and the rising gross international reserves, an economist said over the weekend.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said in a report a relatively high GIR could fundamentally provide some support for the peso exchange rate especially against “any speculative attacks.”

Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed that the GIR level rose to $100.2 billion as of end-March 2023 from $98.2 billion in February. It represented a more than adequate external liquidity buffer equivalent to 7.5 months’ worth of imports of goods and payments of services and primary income.

It was also about 6.0 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity and 4.2 times based on residual maturity.

Ricafort also said any Federal Reserve rate decision of a possible 25-basis-point hike or pause on May 3, 2023 would likely be matched locally on May 18, 2023, a move that could maintain comfortable interest rate differentials that help stabilize the peso, import costs/prices and overall inflation. Julito G. Rada

Stocks seen resuming sideways movement

SHARE prices are expected to move sideways with an upward bias in this shortened trading week amid prospects of easing interest rate hikes.

Financial markets are closed Monday as the country celebrates Araw ng Kagitingan.

Analysts said the lower March inflation rate bolstered hopes that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ tightening cycle would soon come to an end.

Inflation rate in March eased to six-month low of 7.6 percent from 8.6 percent in February on reduced prices of petroleum and some food commodities. Core inflation rate, however, climbed to 8 percent in March from 7.8 percent in the previous month, illustrating broadening price pressures.

Analysts said while the BSP was expected to deliver another 25-basis-point rate increase in its next policy meeting in May, investors were expecting the BSP to take a pause from its tightening cycle by the second half of 2023. Jenniffer B. Austria

Video piracy leads to revenue loss of $781m

THE Intellectual Property Office of the Philippines said over the weekend it will intensify efforts to police the video industry to plug the estimated $781 million or P42.147 billion worth of revenue leakage last year.

Data showed that 2022 revenues from video streaming amounted to $419 million, or about P22.6 billion, with consumer subscription contributing 57 percent and net brand advertising, 43 percent.

“Our IP Rights Enforcement Office will strive to swiftly curb counterfeits and piracy in markets, especially with the draft rules on site blocking that we hope to put in place soon,” said IPOPHL director-general Rowel Barba.

A March 2023 report of Media Partners Asia showed the growth and monetization of online video lagged because of piracy. Easy access to pirated online video content inhibits the development of the premium video sector, including subscription video on demand and premium advertising-based video on demand, it said.

The research-based advisory firm reported a pervasive online video piracy, reaching 20 million users in 2022 or representing an alarming 53 percent of legal video industry/screen revenues.

“If online piracy is not brought under control, the illegal industrial activity could claim 31 million users by 2027 with annual leakage of $1 billion,” the report said. Othel

V. Campos