The Lloyd Austin visit

“A bit of the Prophet Mohammed’s beard was once preserved in a box” at the mosque, said Havva Pamukcu, a 50-year-old woman wearing a headscarf.

“I’m heartbroken,” she said.

A few hundred meters away, a Greek Orthodox church erected in the 14th century—and rebuilt in 1870 after another earthquake—is also gone.

A white cross that once stood on its pointed roof now lies atop shattered walls and broken pieces of wood.

“All the walls have fallen. We’re in despair,” said Sertac Paul Bozkurt, a member of the council managing the church.

‘Soil full of history’

Antakya is in Hatay, a province tucked between the Mediterranean Sea and Turkey’s border with Syria.

It was one of the worst affected by the earthquake and its aftershocks, which have claimed more than 35,000 lives across the region.

In the old city, several streets are still inaccessible, blocked by buildings flattened like pancakes and cars trapped under the debris.

Across more than two millennia, the city was home to Greek, Roman, Byzantine, Persian, Arab and Ottoman empires.

(Second of two Parts)

LAST Monday, we ended our article by mentioning the likelihood of a Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan or whatever final form a security arrangement we may in the near future have with China’s historic rival.

The shift in our foreign and security policy will be more pronounced with this.

China’s long memory has yet to forget the Rape of Nanjing by Japanese invaders, even if the Filipinos’ extremely short memory may have erased the atrocities inflicted by the Japanese forces during the Second World War. We understand the concern of the Japanese over the rising military strength of China, especially since the South China Sea is maritime lifeline for the Japanese and South Korean economies.

The specter of a Chinese closure of these sea lanes once Taiwan is reunited with the mainland is not likely though, as that would trigger a world war.

China knows this as well, and will likely not risk shooting itself in the foot with such adventurism.

What matters to the once sleeping dragon in the realm of geopolitics is Taiwan. Not only is it doctrine, it is a question of “face.”

“Strategic ambiguity” has been the American policy towards Taiwan since it recognized the One China principle, but wary hotheads in Washington DC now push for “strategic clarity” with President Joe Biden blowing hot and cold on the Taiwan issue.

Relations between Beijing and DC are getting testy, each side watching the moves of the other.

Like Aleppo in Syria, Turkey’s “crossroads of civilizations” was already “60 percent destroyed in 1822 after an earthquake,” said Youmna Tabet, of the World Heritage Convention.

Fortunately, there does not seem to be as much damage at Turkey’s other heritage sites, said Maria Liouliou, Tabet’s colleague.

The fortress in Diyarbakir seems to have suffered only moderate damage, she said.

But the dangers are far from over now that the worst aftershocks have faded, experts warn.

What look like “simple cracks” to the “layman’s eyes” can weaken a monument and cause it to collapse weeks later, said Samir Abdulac, who works at the International Council on Monuments and Sites, which seeks to protect historical places.

The experts AFP spoke to all insisted the “priority” was to save lives first. Safeguarding historical monuments must come later.

This was clear when AFP encountered a local official in Antakya, one of many families devastated by the disaster.

“I just lost my two brothers and a nephew. I am evacuating my wife and daughter today,” said the official, who preferred to remain anonymous.

“I have no money, nothing. Frankly I have other priorities than cultural heritage.” AFP

THERE is no question that PBBM has totally reversed the Duterte administration’s foreign policy towards China and the United States.

While former President Duterte embraced China and scorned the US, PBBM is now aggressively reviving the 2014 EDCA, adding four more AFP military bases for joint use with US military forces for a total of nine.

No wonder US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his team must have gone home grinning from ear to ear for what must have been a very successful trip.

The question now is why the sudden shift from a balancing act of trying to navigate between the two powers to a position clearly favoring our old treaty ally, the US?

This shift shows there is a big difference in the appreciation of the prevailing geopolitical situation in the region between the previous President and our current leader.

Former President Duterte in many of his speeches and pronouncements did not believe that the US when worse comes to shove would in the end be willing to go to war for us.

He reduced the yearly Balikatan military exercises to Civic Action activities to the frustration of his Defense Secretary.

PBBM on the other hand has more faith in the words of the US as shown in his many interviews.

Another possible reason could be that PBBM was left with no or little choice but move closer to the US orbit because of what China’s naval militia has been doing to our fishermen in the WPS.

This does not include some menacing actions of the Chinese Coast Guard like the dangerous use of military grade laser beams. In the final analysis, however, all relationships whether among humans or countries will always depend on trust.

On this score, it would seem that PBBM is showing he trusts the US more than he trusts China.

In addition, based on some surveys undertaken, so does the Filipino public. Various pundits whose job is to make commentaries on such government initiatives

We should therefore prepare, to the best of our abilities, in the hope that if and when the time comes we can acquit ourselves with honor also seem to show that more of them are in favor of what PBBM did compared to those who are against.

Let us hope, therefore, this is the right and correct move for the sake of our country.

The new agreement as US Defense Secretary Austin said is a big deal.

One reason is because it changes the military equation in the region.

It provides the US with some logistical capabilities that it did not have before the agreement.

The agreement shortens the reaction time of the US in case of any conflict which as we know could be crucial in military operations.

But as the spokesman of the CPP said, it could enhance the chances of the country getting involved and being a target in any conflict between the powers in the region.

China also reacted with a veiled warning to us to be careful not be used as a tool by the US.

This, however, did not seem to have any effect on PBBM because during his just concluded visit to Japan, he and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida were reported to have explored the possibility of a tripartite defense agreement with the US.

To those who agree with what the CPP, PBBM

Shiftotherwise, and earlier.

One such move that Beijing is quite disturbed about is the growing American military presence in the Philippines.

We have every right to assert our objections to what China has been doing in the West Philippine Sea, occupying rocks and expanding them into reclaimed islands, and harassing our fishermen who eke out a living in the waters of our economic zone. We should prod our ASEAN memberstates, particularly Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei into pressing for a mutually acceptable Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and never give up on our territorial claims, even as we continue diplomatic talks with China on protecting the livelihood of our fishermen.

But protective measures of sovereignty and economic well-being have to be properly calibrated lest it provoke retaliatory measures in these difficult times.

On the economic front, we have a yawning trade deficit with China.

As of end 2021, that deficit was 15.2 billion dollars. What we export to China they can source elsewhere if the State dictates, except perhaps, and for the next few years, our nickel and other minerals.

Even our 2-billion-dollar fruit export allocation for bananas, pineapples, and now durian as well, can suffer consequences, as occurred in 2012 over the Scarborough Shoal incident.

Yet with our weak domestic manufacturing, we consume far too many imported Chinese goods.

Our shopping malls will close down if Yiwu or Guangdong stop selling cheap goods to them. And with cost economies, it will not be easy to substitute these with Made in USA or Made in Japan goods.

But more than these possible economic effects, I fear that by allowing China’s powerful geopolitical rivals to pre-position

Relations between Beijing and DC are getting testy, each side watching the moves of the other military equipment in many parts of our country, we will contribute to hastening a military invasion of Taiwan. Make no mistake, as the president himself admits, that a war in the Taiwan Strait will affect us, draw us into its vortex if only because of geographical proximity. The mere fact that we have 160,000 Filipinos residing in Taiwan who we cannot easily repatriate home once the PLA bombs the airports and seaports from Keelung to Kaoshiung is a nightmare already.

But allowing the US of A to expand their military presence here, albeit on a “non-permanent” basis, is allowing them to prepare for war against China.

Sure, “si vis pacem, pare bellum” (If you want peace, prepare for war) holds true to this day, and that may be what the US and its allies in the region (Japan, South Korea and Australia) are trying to project to dissuade China from an armed attack on what it indubitably considers part of its territory. Being prepared is prudent. Deterrence is fine.

But faced against an implacable determination on the part of China under Xi to take over Taiwan by peaceful means or otherwise, we may end up provoking the

Time will no longer be a friend of Beijing, to paraphrase John F. Kennedy’s words.

For now, Beijing may bide its time on account of the forthcoming 2024 elections in Taiwan, about the same time the US of A will decide between the Democrats and the Republicans.

Last week, the Kuomintang’s vicechairman, Andrew Hsia met with Wang Huning, the Communist Party’s fourth ranked leader in Beijing, and was asked to “oppose Taiwan independence and interference by external forces” so as to maintain peace in the Taiwan Strait.

Wang is quite close to Xi, and is one of just two Politburo Standing Committee members not replaced by the latter in the last party congress in October 2021.

Although the KMT or “Blue” party in Taiwan favors close ties with China, it has for political correctness denied being proBeijing, and declares it is just for peaceful resolution of disputes.

The ruling DPP, on the other hand, has been staunch in its defense of a free Taiwan, and has been strengthening its defense mechanisms in the event of a Chinese “invasion.”

The US of A, while affirming a One China policy and a strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan “independence” has been profitably supplying arms to the island nation to “enhance its defensive capability.”

Sounds exactly like EDCA.

It is foreseeable for the PRC to be supportive of a KMT victory in Taiwan’s November 2024 elections, and between now and then, more pro-active measures may be in place.

Meanwhile, the push to steal more nations which recognize Taiwan will continue.

Depending on the outcome of the April elections, Paraguay, the South American in his interviews showed he realizes this but believes that regardless of what we do, he believes we cannot avoid getting involved because of geography not to mention history. landlocked nation once ruled by a dictator, may soon switch recognition to China from Taiwan, the opposition eyeing the big Chinese market for its livestock and soybean exports, lifeblood of its economy. Recall that Tsai Ing-wen’s predecessor, the KMT’s Ma Ying-jeou, presided over warm relations with the mainland. But what happens if the DPP wins again, after eight years of Tsai?

We know that Ayungin Shoal, a submerged reef 194 km off Palawan province, is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea or UNCLOS.

That is why our Navy maintains its presence there through the derelict vessel BRP Sierra Madre.

When President Marcos Jr. visited China in early January, Chinese President Xi Jinping said he was willing to find a compromise and a solution to the territorial and maritime dispute in the South China Sea.

Whatever happened to that promise?

Was it something uttered merely to please his visitors, but totally bereft of sincerity?

The Philippine government even suggested that the two sides should establish a hotline to prevent any escalation of tensions between the two navies/ Coast Guards in the high seas.

It turns out that no such hotline is now in place.

Since 2016, the Philippines has filed 461 diplomatic protests against China over repeated incursions in the West Philippine Sea, according to the DFA.

But with no action on the part of Beijing to mend its ways, a “frenemy” is really how we should consider them, and adjust our bilateral relations accordingly.

In the last two World Wars, the Low Countries in Europe for example declared their neutrality because they did not want to get involved but were nonetheless invaded.

Perhaps, in the mind of PBBM, it is better to join an alliance for more and better protection than being swallowed up with no chance at all.

This is partly because of all the countries in this region with a defense agreement with the US, we have the weakest military capability.

We have a long way to go before we can attain a credible defense capability.

This is why what our military strategic plans devised by our defense leaders are crucial in relation to all these military agreements we entered into.

All of them must be integrated to enhance our military posture.

But, in the end, it is best for us to realize that the defense of the country will ultimately be left to us Filipinos.

We should therefore prepare, to the best of our abilities, in the hope that if and when the time comes we can acquit ourselves with honor.

We pray however, that it will never come because, to borrow the words of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi when he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, now is not the time for wars.

Now is the time for peace.

So, instead of raising the tensions in the WPS and Taiwan Strait, the big powers should simmer down on their rhetoric and military drills to lower the tension.

As the Ukrainian conflict is showing, the noncombatants are the ones suffering the most which could have been avoided if leaders were only willing to sit down and talk.

Feeling assured that big brother America and friendly Japan will be with them, the situation between “cousins” could deteriorate further. With 2027 around the corner for Xi Jinping’s third and probably final term, and in the face of the US pare bellum tactics in the region, particularly in the Philippines which is closest to Taiwan, the itch to push the button for a military offensive could thus be irresistibly hastened.

The Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation can no longer be postponed.

Will then the Philippines be caught in the maelstrom and the non-permanent bases become targets for the PLA forces?

Of course we will.

And what about the safety of the 160,000 Filipinos in Taiwan who along with half a million more contract workers from other countries may not even have space in underground shelters?

These should be primary considerations to ponder about in the crafting of foreign policy that impacts on national security.

This is unlike a Neville Chamberlain conundrum in the face of Hitler’s annexation of the Sudetenland.

Europe’s geography and its history are far different from ours vis-à-vis our waterseparated rich and powerful neighbors. It will be a blue water and air corridor conflict, where time is key to everything.