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NEWS Back to Work?

A year and a half after a COVID-caused recession, employment numbers exceed pre-pandemic levels

By Jack Harvel

Oregon Employment Department

The number of working Central Oregonians exceeds pre-pandemic levels from October 2019 by about 630 jobs, signaling that the economy largely recovered from the shock of COVID.

The Oregon Employment Department reported Nov. 23 that the unemployment rate is around 4.9% in Deschutes County, oneand-a-half points higher than pre-pandemic rates from February 2020, but lower than the 6.9% 10-year average in Deschutes County. When the pandemic started affecting employment in April of 2020, Deschutes County had experienced some of the lowest unemployment rates in its history.

“Three-point-three percent was the bottom before the pandemic, and that was historically low, we had never seen rates that low in Central Oregon’s history, and definitely not in Deschutes County,” said Damon Runberg, a regional economist with the OED.

Full employment for Deschutes County, Runberg said, is met at about a 4.5% unemployment rate. When the rate goes too low it can be difficult for businesses to hire, and when it’s too high that’s usually a sign there aren’t enough jobs for workers to fill. Full employment is defined regionally, and Central Oregon tends to have more unemployment.

“Our rates of unemployment in Deschutes County, or even Crook County or Jefferson County, our neighboring rural communities,

A graph showing Central Oregon’s unemployment rate from 2016 to 2021 compared to the state average.

The biggest recovery is in the leisure and hospitality industries, which lost 54% of its workforce in the immediate shock after COVID. Now it’s down about 3.5% from pre-pandemic levels.

“It’s pretty dang close to being recovered when you consider that over half the jobs were shed. That’s quite a feat,” Runberg said.

“I think a lot of people hear that and think that it’s a wishy-washy labor force or people not wanting to engage in the workforce or be non-committal, whatever it might be. It really has nothing to do with that. It has almost everything to do with people quitting jobs and moving into other jobs. They’re not leaving the labor force for the most part.” —Damon Runberg

on average, tend to have higher rates of unemployment than the national or the state numbers, and that’s not because we have a weaker economy or anything like that—we have more seasonality in our economy,” Runberg said. “Impacts from the tourism sector, construction, agriculture, all those together mean that we have a more natural higher rate of unemployment.”

Manufacturing and construction also rebounded well, but retail trade lags behind pre-pandemic employment numbers by about 520 jobs. Still, these numbers don’t align with the prevailing notion locally that there are still too few workers to fill available jobs.

“I think a lot of people hear that and think that it’s a wishy-washy labor force or people not wanting to engage in the workforce or be non-committal, whatever it might be,” Runberg said. “It really has nothing to do with that. It has almost everything to do with people quitting jobs and moving into other jobs. They’re not leaving the labor force, for the most part.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a record-breaking 2.9% of the workforce quit their jobs in August, only to be surpassed in September when 3% quit. Oregon has one of the highest quit rates in the country.

“Because of the high demand for labor, there’s lots of opportunities for people to change a career, move into a position that has better pay or has better working conditions,” Runberg said. “When there’s a really high demand for labor and the supply is low, it’s the type of leverage that workers only get in relatively small periods of time. And taking advantage of that is not a terrible idea.”

Wages rose for most income levels, but especially for people making lower wages. But those wage gains are largely being diminished, even as wages continue to rise.

“What’s interesting in today’s market is the nominal wages continue to go up pretty aggressively, nominal being non-inflation adjusted wages. However, because of the last six months of relatively high inflation numbers we’ve seen, that has eroded those wage gains, and so the inflation adjusted wages actually stopped growing. So, we’ve sort of flattened out there,” Runberg said.

Runberg said Deschutes County’s economic recovery was atypical when compared to other Oregon metros, most of which haven’t recovered as quickly. Portland, for example, has only recovered 72% of its jobs lost during the pandemic. States with fewer public health mandates reached pre-pandemic employment earlier than those that had strict masking and distancing mandates. This recession differed from others in that it was more tied to policy than is typical.

“Normally a recession happens and it hits economies to different magnitudes or different levels, because the industry concentration that that economy has. This was this was a little bit of that in the sense that the leisure sector was hard hit across the country, regardless. But it was hit to a greater or lesser extent, depending on those policy responses,” Runberg said. “In Oregon, which was a state that had sort of more aggressive public health measures, we are unique to have been recovered, especially when you consider that Deschutes County was one of the hardest hit in the initial job losses.”

Noticias en Español Las cifras de empleo rebasan el volumen previo a la pandemia un año y medio después de una recesión causada por COVID

Por Jack Harvel Translated by / Traducido por Jéssica Sánchez-Millar

El número de trabajadores en el Centro de Oregon rebasa el volumen previo a la pandemia de octubre 2019 con cerca de 630 empleos, lo que indica que la economía se recuperó bastante de la sacudida por COVID.

La Secretaria del Trabajo de Oregon (OED por sus siglas en inglés) reportó el 23 de noviembre que la tasa de desempleo es de alrededor del 4.9% en el Condado de Deschutes, un punto y medio más alto que el nivel previo a la pandemia de febrero 2020, pero más bajo que el promedio de 10 años del 6.9% en el Condado de Deschutes. Cuando la pandemia comenzó a afectar el empleo en abril 2020, el Condado de Deschutes había pasado por una de las tasas de desempleo más bajas de su historia

“Tres, punto tres por ciento era el nivel mínimo antes de la pandemia y eso fue históricamente bajo, nunca habíamos visto niveles tan bajos en la historia del Centro de Oregon y definitivamente no en el condado de Deschutes,” dijo Damon Runberg, economista de la región del OED.

El pleno empleo para el Condado de Deschutes, dijo Runberg, se alcanza con una tasa de desempleo de alrededor del 4.5%. Cuando la tasa de desempleo es demasiado baja, puede ser difícil para los comercios contratar empleados y cuando es demasiado alta, suele ser una señal de que no hay suficientes empleos para los trabajadores. El pleno empleo se define regionalmente y el Centro de Oregon tiende a sufrir de más desempleo.

“Nuestras tasas de desempleo en el Condado de Deschutes o incluso en los Condados de Crook o Jefferson, nuestras comunidades rurales vecinas, en promedio, tienden a tener tasas de desempleo más altas a nivel nacional o estatal y no se debe a que tengamos de una economía débil o algo por el estilo –tenemos más estacionalidad en nuestra economía,” dijo Runberg. Influye desde el sector turístico, constructor, agricultor, todos estos juntos implican que tenemos una tasa de desempleo más alta por naturaleza.”

La recuperación más grande viene de la industria hospitalaria y de la recreación, las cuales perdieron el 54% de su fuerza laboral en sacudida inmediata posterior al COVID. Ahora ha bajado a 3.5% en relación a los niveles previos a la pandemia. “Si se tiene en cuenta que más de la mitad de los empleos desaparecieron, está bien cerca de recuperarse. Es todo una hazaña,” dijo Runberg.

La manufactura y la construcción también se recuperaron bien, pero los comercios de venta al por menor está por detrás las cifras de empleo previo a la pandemia con alrededor de 520 puestos. Aún así, estas cifras no coinciden con la noción que prevalece a nivel local de que todavía hay muy pocos trabajadores para cubrir los puestos disponibles.

“Creo que muchas personas escuchan eso y piensan que es una fuerza laboral débil o que las personas no quieren involucrarse o comprometerse con la fuerza laboral, como quiera que sea,” dijo Runberg. “La verdad no tiene nada que ver con eso, casi tiene todo que ver con las personas que dejan sus trabajos y comienzan a laborar en otros trabajos. En su mayor parte, no abandonan la fuerza laboral”.

La oficina de estadísticas laborales reportó que un 2.9% de la fuerza laboral rompió el record debido al abandonar sus trabajos en agosto, solo para ser superado en septiembre cuando el 3% renunció a su trabajo. Oregon tiene uno de los más altos niveles de abandono laboral en el país. “Debido a la alta demanda laboral, hay muchas oportunidades para que las personas cambien de profesión, cambien a un puesto mejor pagado o que ofrezca mejores condiciones laborales,” dijo Runberg. “Cuando hay una demanda laboral muy alta y la oferta es baja, es el tipo de ventaja que los trabajadores solo obtienen en un periodo de tiempo relativamente corto y el aprovechar eso no es mala idea.”

Omicron Incoming

The newest COVID variant hasn’t reached the United States yet, but it’s concerning many public health officials

By Jack Harvel

Anew COVID variant originating in South Africa is causing concern among Oregon Health officials. South African scientists announced a new variant, now called the Omicron variant, was spreading in their country last week and it’s already been detected in 20 other countries.

Scientists are working to understand the novel variant, but it’s currently unknown whether it is more transmissible than other COVID variants or causes more severe health outcomes. The World Health Organization reported that hospitalizations increased in South Africa but said that could be due to more overall infections rather than increased severity of cases.

The variant has already spread to Europe and Asia. There hasn’t been a case yet in the United States as of this writing, but health officials expect that it’s only a matter of time before it spreads in North America.

“Omicron has not yet been detected in the United States, but we expect it will be in the coming days due to its reported high transmissibility,” said Dean E. Sidelinger, health officer and Oregon state epidemiologist, in a press release. “Oregon has one of the most robust variant surveillance systems in the United States, and so far, no cases of Omicron have been detected in Oregon.”

The Delta variant is the predominate variant in the U.S. and is responsible for about 99% of current cases and 80% of overall infections throughout the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Though it’s still too early to say for sure, Sidelinger said there are signs that Omicron could be more contagious than Delta.

“Omicron is reported to be more transmissible than the Delta variant as it’s quickly outcompeted Delta in South Africa, but we do not yet know how much more transmissible it is. We also don’t know how Omicron affects vaccine effectiveness against severe infection (hospitalization and death),” Sidelinger said.

Health officials say vaccination, masking and distancing are the best ways to prevent the virus from spreading. A CDC study found that unvaccinated people were 10 times more likely to be hospitalized and 11 times more likely to die from COVID.

“Vaccination remains the best protection against COVID-19. Those who are not yet vaccinated should get their first COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible. Those due for a booster – all adults either two months

Courtesy Pixabay

The Omicron variant has over 50 mutations to the original COVID virus, but it’s unknown yet how it will compare to the Delta Variant.

after a Johnson & Johnson vaccination or six months after a Moderna or Pfizer vaccination – should get it as soon as possible,” Sidelinger said. “Wearing a mask when inside public places as well as social distancing and handwashing remain incredibly important in the face of an emerging variant and high levels of community transmission.” Starting Nov. 30, Deschutes County Health Services, along with the Oregon Health Authority, are offering drive-thru vaccinations at the Deschutes County Fair and Expo Center in Redmond for anyone 5 and older. The vaccination clinic will run from noon to 7 every day and can offer first, second or booster shots for all three COVID vaccines approved in the U.S.

“We are excited to help improve access to pediatric COVID-19 vaccinations,” said Nahad Sadr-Azodi, director of Deschutes County Health Services, in a press release. “This is a great opportunity for families to come and get vaccinated together.”

Ski You Later

Mt. Bachelor is postponing its opening day for the second time, and this time there’s no set date

By Jack Harvel

Mt. Bachelor is again postponing its opening day due to a lack of snowfall and consistently warm temperatures. The mountain was set to open on Friday, Nov. 26, before being postponed to Dec. 3. Now there’s no projected opening date.

“Like previous winters when we didn’t announce an opening date, we’ll be ready and announce the opening as soon as we have adequate snowfall to offer a safe skiing experience for guests,” an email from Mt. Bachelor stated.

Weather forecasts in Bend predict temperatures as high as 60 degrees over the next week. The resort typically opens in late November, but the December start date isn’t unprecedented.

“Back in winter 2008/09 (also a La Niña winter), Mt. Bachelor opened up Dec. 14 due to lack of snowfall, and once it started, it didn’t stop – breaking records and dropping 538 inches of seasonal snowfall,” the resort said.

Mt. Bachelor encouraged people to stay tuned to its email alerts, social media accounts and website for updates on opening day.

Courtesy of Eli Duke via Flickr

It’s a (OE)RAP

Gov. Kate Brown looks to extend safe harbor for tenants as applications continue to be processed

By Jack Harvel

Gov. Kate Brown announced on Tuesday that she will call for a special legislative session on Dec. 13 to address eviction protections. Earlier in the day Oregon Housing and Community Services said they are pausing any new applications for the Oregon Emergency Rental Assistance Program, or OERAP for at least six weeks.

OHCS received over 50,000 applications for the rental assistance program and so far 23,000 have been approved and almost $150 million dispersed.

“As we enter our coldest months, it is absolutely essential that we take action to ensure no additional Oregon families are evicted when rental assistance is on the way,” Brown said in a statement.

Federal rental assistance funding is nearly used up, and Brown is advocating for a statewide solution that extends safe harbor protections for people that applied for assistance, ensures landlords are paid in full for owed rent, provides up to $90 million in rental assistance to low-income tenants and transitions the program from a large-scale pandemic-related program to a long-term one.

“Our federal funds for rental assistance will be nearly spent on December 1. I am continuing to work with federal officials at U.S. Treasury and the White House to secure additional federal emergency rental assistance funding for Oregon, but it is clear that a state solution is needed to address the urgent and immediate needs of Oregon renters. And, we must begin laying the groundwork now for the transition to local eviction prevention services after federal pandemic emergency programs draw to an end,” Brown said.

The Oregon Legislature’s Housing Committee Chairs Rep. Julie Fahey (D-Eugene) and Sen. Kayse Jama (D-Portland) praised the governor for calling the session.

“No Oregonian should be evicted while rental assistance is on the way. A special session is the only way to prevent this. Thanks to Governor Brown, the legislature is officially on track to fulfill our promise to Oregon renters,” they said in a joint statement. “After months of work, we have developed a proposal to extend the state’s bipartisan safe harbor protections and provide additional funds for direct rent assistance that will benefit both tenants and housing providers.”

Senate President Peter Courtney (D-Salem) said for the special session to work it must be meticulously crafted.

“Special sessions are the most difficult of all sessions. Everything must be carefully planned. We have a lot of work to do. I hope we will be ready,” Courtney said in a statement.