MARKETING

2024 production and marketings remained at 230.8 and 229.8 billion pounds respectively. If realized, 2024 production and marketings would be up 2.4 billion pounds or 1.1 percent from 2023.

The 2023 cheese price is expected to average $1.73 per pound, down 9.5 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to the 2022 average of $2.1122 and $1.6755 in 2021. The 2024 average is estimated at $1.775, 4.5 cents lower than last month’s projection.

Butter is expected to average $2.4350 per pound in 2023, up 50 cents from a month ago, and compares to $2.8665 in 2022 and $1.7325 in 2021. The 2024 average was estimated at $2.335.

Nonfat dry milk is projected to average $1.19 per pound, up 50 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to $1.6851 in 2022 and $1.2693 in 2021. The 2024 average was projected at $1.13, up a penny from a month ago.

The dry whey average was projected at 37 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents from last month’s estimate, and compares to 60.57 cents in 2022 and 57.44 cents in 2021. The 2024 average was put at 36 cents per pound.

The 2023 Class III milk price average estimate was lowered to $16.70 per hundredweight, down $1.05 from last month’s projection and compares to $21.96 in 2022 and $17.08 in 2021. The 2023 average was projected at $17, down 50 cents from a month ago.

The U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Beginning stocks were up 35 million bushels, reflecting a forecast decline in exports that is partly offset by lower imports. Exports were lowered 50 million bushels and ending stocks were raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price was unchanged at $4.80.

Soybean supply and use projections included higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced exports, down 15 million bushels to 2 billion. With increased supplies and no use changes, soybean ending stocks were projected at 350 million bushels, up 15 million. The soybean price was forecast at $12.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

The latest Crop Progress report shows 93 percent of U.S. corn has emerged, as of the week ending June 11, up from 85 percent the previous week, 6 percent ahead of a year ago as well as the five-year average. Sixty-one percent was rated good to excellent, down from 72 percent a year ago, as dry conditions prevail over a large section of the crop.

Soybeans were 96 percent planted, up from 91 percent the week before, 9 percent ahead of a year ago, and 10 percent ahead of the five-year average. Eighty-six percent are emerged, up from 74 percent the previous week, 18 percent ahead of a year ago, and 16 percent ahead of the five-year average. Fifty- nine percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 62 percent the previous week, but 11 percent behind a year ago.

The week ending June 3 saw 51,800 dairy cows go to slaughter, down 5,200 head from the previous week but 3,000 head or 6.1 percent more than a year ago. Year-to-date, 1.325 million have been culled, up 65,100 head or 4.9 percent from a year ago.

The June 15 Daily Dairy Report says lofty cattle prices have “boosted dairy cull cow checks to multiyear highs. The combination of low milk prices and high beef prices may help to accelerate contraction in the dairy herd, speeding the transition to lower milk production and higher dairy product prices.”

StoneX wrote in its June 16 “Early Morning Update” that if slaughter numbers continue like they are, they could finish the year at near record levels. “Data available from the USDA goes back to 2017; and since then, the record for slaughter was in 2019 with an average weekly slaughter of 61,760 head. Our current average weekly slaughter is 60,913 with an expectation that volume should increase on a week-to-week basis moving forward.”

Checking dairy demand, April total cheese usage came in at 1.19 billion pounds, up 0.6 percent, thanks to a 1.6 percent increase domestically outweighing an 11.7 percent drop in exports. Those exports were likely booked in late 2022 or early 2023, explains HighGround Dairy, “when U.S. prices carried a premium to the rest of the world.”

Butter utilization hit 187.5 million pounds, up 7.9 percent and up 4.1 percent year-to-date. It topped prior-year levels for the third consecutive month, according to dairy economist Betty Berning in the June 19 “Dairy Radio Now” broadcast. She said the

See MIELKE, pg. 17