8 minute read
PADDLE SMARTS
from The Ensign Fall 2025
by theensign
Performing risk assessments
BY JIM GREENHALGH
"Warning: Abandon all hope ye who enter here."
The sign posted at the upper entry point to the “17 Runs” section of the Hillsborough River near Tampa, Florida, is intended to discourage inexperienced paddlers from attempting this section of treacherous navigation through a maze of creeks. Without maintenance, this area can be full of downed trees requiring portaging. It’s also home to dangerous wildlife including alligators and the Florida cottonmouth. Once, this section was so bad that a small group of us took over six hours to cover 4 miles.
Overall, paddling is a safe sport, but factors like weather, water, land, equipment, vessel traffic and other risks need consideration before you venture out onto the water, be it solo or with a group. Paddlers can find several suggested risk assessment checklists online, and some include diagrams to help make the “go/no go” decision. Let’s look at some hazards that paddlers may face and how to mitigate risk.
Weather
The first factor that needs to be considered before launching on a paddle trip is weather.
Paddlers should check the local weather forecast or listen to the forecast on the marine VHF weather channels before heading onto the water or off the coast.
Are the current weather conditions forecast to improve or worsen? Are the current air temperatures increasing or decreasing? Record the forecast wind direction, speeds and predicted changes. Are the winds onshore or offshore? Winds less than 15 knots are fine for most boats and paddlecraft. Winds between 15 and 20 knots are designated as Small Craft Exercise Caution, which can be OK for experienced paddlers. Winds more than 20 knots are designated as Small Craft Advisory, which will produce rough seas, and my experience has shown it’s difficult to turn a long paddlecraft into the wind or maintain a steady course.
Water
The conditions in the water need to be considered. What is the current water temperature? As water temperatures drop below 70 degrees, immersion becomes increasingly hazardous to humans, and paddlers should always dress for immersion.
Record the predicted wave height, period and direction Are the waves onshore or offshore, and how does this relate to currents? Tide and current predictions should be recorded. What are the times and heights of high and low tides, and what is the range in feet between the two? What is the direction and speed of tidal currents that might be encountered on the trip, and how does that relate to the wind and waves? Consider that most paddlecraft can cruise around 2 to 3 knots and can reach speeds of 5 to 6 knots at full power, so speed and direction vectors need to be factored into a navigation plan.
Storms
Give thought to the possibility of storms when trip planning. Storm fronts are usually forecast days ahead so a paddle trip can be planned around them In many parts of the country, thunderstorms can be a daily event during certain months, so boaters should take steps to avoid them and have a plan of what to do if caught in one.
Land
Paddlers should always consider the land and possible takeouts in the case of deteriorating weather, increasing seas, thunderstorms or other problems. How far will a planned trip take you away from the safety of land? Where are the possible takeouts? Will the trip take you by areas where landing is inaccessible due to rocky cliffs, breaking surf, tidal influence or thick vegetation? Stay clear of a rocky shoreline with breaking waves.
Vessel traffic
What type of vessel traffic might be encountered on a trip? Will you be paddling in an area with a lot of recreational boats or high-speed traffic such as powerboats or personal watercraft? Does your navigation plan include crossing major channels or waterways with commercial vessels, ships or even high-speed ferry boats? Would you be paddling in areas with tall grass or brush such as the Everglades where airboat traffic might be encountered?
Wildlife
While I was penning this article, two people were killed by animals in Florida within a day of each other. A canoeist was killed in a lake when the canoe ran over a large alligator, and a non-boater was killed in the woods in what is believed to be the first death in Florida by bear attack. While these incidents are rare, paddlers need to consider animals that might be encountered on a trip.
Groups
It is always safer to paddle in a group, and consideration needs to be given to the members, their ability and equipment. Who will lead the group, and do they have the knowledge and ability to navigate the trip, make decisions and handle a situation if something goes wrong?
Do the members have the proper equipment for the planned trip, and do they have the mental and physical ability to complete the trip? Do the members possess the skills, ability and equipment to deal with an unexpected incident? Would they be able to assist in rescue or towing another paddler in the event of an injury or exhaustion?
Consider that a paddling group cannot proceed any faster than the slowest or weakest member and the main goal is always for each participant to return safely.
Compounding factors
When preparing for a trip, paddlers should review each factor discussed in this article and consider the results of compounding factors. For example, if the weather forecast calls for winds that will cause rough seas, the risk of capsizing increases. If the water temperature is below 70 degrees, the risk level increases as a capsized paddler will be immersed in cold water.
The risk level increases again if the wind or current direction would carry the capsized paddler offshore farther from safety, or worse into breaking seas and rocks. Winds opposing current will create rougher seas, further increasing the risk of capsizing.
Another factor to take into account is exposure time, or the time that a paddler is exposed to a specific hazard. For example, a paddler crosses a body of water with seas running 2 feet, and the crossing takes 30 minutes. In this scenario the paddler is exposed to a certain level of risk. If we consider the same scenario with a longer crossing time of 90 minutes, the hazard of the seas has not increased, but the time exposed to that level of risk has increased three-fold. The increased exposure time elevates the risk of the paddler becoming exhausted or capsizing before reaching safety.
Mitigating risk
Mitigating risk starts with education, training and experience. One of the best ways to gain knowledge and experience is to join a paddling club. Contact your local paddle sports outfitter, as many offer training and can recommend a local paddling club. Those new to paddling need to start in easy conditions, become involved in training and rescue, and gain experience before paddling into deeper, rougher waters Paddlers should always wear their life jacket and dress for immersion, as the water temperature drops below 70 degrees. As paddlers gain knowledge and experience, they need to be realistic when assessing their current skill level and equipment. Unfortunately, some overestimate their skills and get themselves into trouble out on the water.
If you will be paddling in an area with boat traffic, learn the navigation rules, use equipment and clothing for high visibility, and carry a white flashlight in case you must return after dark. Carry a marine VHF or a cell phone, and leave a float plan with someone before departure.
When planning a paddle trip, first review the weather forecast, tides and currents if in a coastal area; it’s best to plan the route using these factors to the best advantage. Prior to launch, consider which hazards might be encountered and consider the consequences if something goes wrong. Consider what would be the worst-case scenario. If paddling with a group, each member should be involved in risk assessment before the decision to launch is made. Is it possible to modify the trip plan to avoid some hazards and make the trip safer?
Before launch, the group, and each individual in the group, must make the “go/no-go” decision. Remember that it’s best to err on the side of caution so you can always return to paddle another day. ■
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jim Greenhalgh of St Petersburg Sail & Power Squadron/22 is a senior navigator, vessel examiner, and instructor, having taught boating safety and navigation since 1991. He draws on his vast sail and powerboating experience as a lifelong boater and avid sea kayaker. Jim leads trips for the Kayak Adventure Group, a sea kayaking club based on Florida’s west coast that he co-founded. He also wrote Navigation Rules for Paddlecraft, a must-read for all paddlers.
