2024-25 WINTER OUTLOOK

By Dan McVey, Vice President & Chief Operating Officer — Gas Operations

As we gear up for the winter months, the forecast suggests a season that may be colder and wetter than in previous years. Several weather phenomena, including a strong El Niño, are expected to influence the state's winter conditions, bringing various impacts across different regions.

THE ROLE OF EL NINO

One of the most significant factors shaping this winter’s forecast is the presence of El Niño, which refers to the warming of the Pacific Ocean, drastically affecting global weather patterns. During a typical El Niño, warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific lead to shifts in the jet stream, impacting temperature and precipitation patterns in North America.

For the Midwest, El Niño winters are often characterized by more precipitation and fluctuating temperatures. This means we could experience more frequent winter storms and periods of above-average rainfall, sleet and snow.

TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS

The 2024-2025 winter weather in Ohio is expected to feature a mix of frigid days interspersed with mild days. The occurrence of El Niño typically leads to slightly warmer winters in the northern parts of the United States, especially in late winter. While Ohio may see milder temperatures during certain periods, cold air outbreaks are still anticipated, especially in December and early January.

Central Ohio will see fluctuating temperatures. Warmer-than-normal days may be followed by sudden drops due to the influence of frigid air masses moving in from Canada. This variability could lead to a winter in which Ohioans experience a wide range of temperatures in a short period of time.

PRECIPITATION PREDICATIONS

The forecast for precipitation in Ohio this winter suggests that most of the state will see above-average rainfall and snowfall. The southern half of Ohio is expected to receive more rain and ice, while the northern half may have increased snow showers. In areas prone to lake-effect snow, particularly near Lake Erie, snowfall totals could be significantly increased.

Frequent winter storms with increased chances of rain, sleet and snow could transition into freezing rain and icy conditions, making the roads and travel plans extremely hazardous.

THE BOTTOM LINE

When interpreting all the available data, it is really anyone’s guess about the upcoming winter, but we should expect a winter season marked by inconstancy, with sudden temperature fluctuations resulting in precipitation changes. It is time to start preparing for El Niño’s presence.

Preparedness will be key for us this winter. El Niño’s influence will likely result in more precipitation, and depending on where you live, this could mean more snow, sleet, or rain. Residents in the north should prepare for the potential of heavier snowfalls, while those in the further south may deal with more frequent rain and ice. The current outlook suggests a season full of unpredictable changes, so staying updated on local weather forecasts is vital to help navigate the winter months ahead.