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MONTECITO & HOPE RANCH Q3 2023 MARKET REPORT

THE EBBIN GROUP

T H E N E W S TA N D A R D I N L U X U R Y R E A L E S TAT E E L E VAT I N G T H E S TA N DA R D S O F LU X U RY R E A L E S TAT E R E P R E S E N TAT I O N T H R O U G H S O P H I S T I C AT E D M A R K E T I N G A N D B R A N D I N G , W H I T E - G LOV E C O N C I E R G E S E RV I C E , A N D U N PA R A L L E L E D N E G OT I AT I O N S K I L L S , D E L I V E R I N G O U R C L I E N T S E XC E P T I O N A L R E S U LT S

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

#1 COMPASS TEAM IN SANTA BARBARA, MONTECITO, AND OJAI IN SALES VOLUME

$63.25M REPRESENTED THE HIGHEST PRICED SALE IN MONTECITO HISTORY

$18M REPRESENTED THE HIGHEST PRICED SALE IN OJAI HISTORY

1% RANKED IN THE TOP 1% OF AGENTS NATIONWIDE

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S

INTRODUCTION

MARKET OVERVIEW

M O N T E C I TO M A R K E T

HOPE RANCH MARKET

C O M I N G S O O N TO M A R K E T

V I N TAG E M O N T E C I TO FA R M H O U S E

T H E P R I VAT E M A R K E T

RECENT SALES

THE EBBIN GROUP EDGE

WO R K W I T H U S

C O N TAC T I N F O R M AT I O N

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

Q3 2023 MARKET REPORT

MARKET OVERVIE W For the first time in over two years, there are signs that point to an overall market stabilization in Santa Barbara. Throughout 2021 and 2022 prices rose at unprecedented and unsustainable rates. The rapid rise in interest rates, currently hovering at around 7.5% for a 30-year fixed mortgage at the time of writing, combined with limited inventory, largely in part due to homeowners who locked in historically low-interest rates

for a home that aligns precisely with their needs. There is less buyer urgency. Today’s economic uncertainty and high-interest rates have created a palpable sense of caution among both buyers and investors, even among all cash buyers which has given rise to the adoption of the “wait-and-see approach”. Conclusively, well-priced, quality properties, are selling, while overpriced properties sit on

in the 3% range and are reluctant to sell, and a desire for a quieter lifestyle from many urban dwellers, have all contributed to the sustained healthy market in Santa Barbara. Though demand remains high, things seem to be returning to a more “normal” market.

the market.

There has been an uptick in price reductions and days a property sits on the market, yet overall pricing has been relatively stable due to strong out-of-town buyer demand and limited inventory. With the normalization of remote work, many people are choosing to leave major metropolitan cities to move to areas like Santa Barbara with less crime, more outdoor space, and an overall higher quality of living. Additionally, with the implementation of the Measure ULA transfer tax in Los Angeles, real estate transaction activity has slowed down drastically in that market shifting further demand to our market. Moreover, fears of a proposed Wildlife Ordinance that if approved, would significantly restrict the maximum buildable square footage for certain properties in LA, has also lessened the appeal of living in Los Angeles. Despite the aforementioned demand, we are seeing a disconnect between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations. Many sellers believe we are in the same market as we were in 2021, demanding aspirational pricing. In contrast, buyers now believe they have a stronger posture in negotiations, and to a degree, they do in comparison with the frenzied bull market fueled by the pandemic. The disparity in expectations has heightened the challenge of successfully closing deals, adding to overall lower transaction volume and canceled escrows. Moreover, buyers have become increasingly discerning and patient in their search

The $10M+ market experienced a decline in closed transactions in Montecito and Hope Ranch. In Montecito, the number of transactions over $10M decreased by 50% from 10 sales in Q2 to 5 sales in Q3. In Hope Ranch, there were zero transactions that closed over $10M in Q3, compared with 3 in Q2, however, near the end of Q2 a Hope Ranch listing (4187 Cresta Ave) listed at $19.95M went under contract. If the transaction closes at or near the listing price, it will mark the highest-priced sale this year in Hope Ranch. The highest-priced sale in Hope Ranch thus far in 2023 closed for $13.495M in April (4689 Via Roblada). In the ultra-high-end segment of the market of $20M+, we’re still seeing activity. Notably, 3165 Padaro Lane in Carpinteria recently closed for $46.89M at the end of Q3 in September, marking the highest-priced residential sale in Santa Barbara County this year and the fifth highest-priced residential sale in Santa Barbara County history. Whether you’re considering buying or selling property in Montecito or Hope Ranch, now more than ever, it’s important to have expert and seasoned representation. The Ebbin Group has a solid and well-earned reputation as thought leaders and a trusted source in luxury real estate. We are consistently ranked as the #1 Compass team in sales in Santa Barbara County. Please contact us for any and all of your real estate needs.

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

M O N T E C I TO Q 3 2 02 3 ( JULY 1- S E P T 30) | MA R KET INSIGH T

$267,972,500

TOTAL SA L E S VO LUME I N Q3

TOTA L T R A N SAC T I ONS IN Q3

20 23

2023

20 23

20 22

$26 7M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 38 TR ANSACT I O N S

$323M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 4 8 TRA N SACT I O N S

$2 0 3M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 32 TR ANSAC TI O NS

$18 8M+ I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 29 TR ANSAC TI O NS

$5M ME DI A N SA L E S P RI C E 44 AVE RAG E DAYS O N MA R K E T $6.23M

$18.5M H IGH E ST P RICE D SAL E IN Q 3

AV E RAG E SA L E S P R I C E

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

1741 GLE N OAKS D RIV E

“ While demand in the Montecito market remains high, we are seeing a trend towards more market equilibrium. Low inventory sustains high prices but buyers are less frenzied and are exhibiting prudence in their decision making. LU K E E B B I N | M O N T E C I TO S P E C I A L I S T

THE DATA SHOWN ILLUSTRATES THE TOTAL SALES QUANTITY FOR A RANGE OF PRICE TIERS WITHIN THE MONTECITO REAL ESTATE MARKET DURING Q3 2023

SA L E S

SA LE S

UP TO $ 5 M

$ 5- 10M

SA L E S

SA LE S

$ 10 - 15 M

$ 15M+

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

$10M+ M O N T E C I TO M A R K E T

20 TOTAL $1 0 M+ T RA N SAC TI O N S I N Q1- Q 3 2 0 2 3

Total $10M+ Sales in Q1-Q3 (Year Over Year) Q1 - Q 3 20 23

20 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 22

25 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 21

34 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 20

6 SALES

20% D E CR EASE I N TOTAL $10 M+ SALE S DURIN G Q 1 - Q 3 Y EAR OVER YEAR , 202 2 TO 2 02 3

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

HOPE RANCH Q 3 2 02 3 ( JULY 1- S E P T 30) | MA R KET INSIGH T

$28,255,000

TOTAL SA L E S VO LUME I N Q3

TOTA L T R A N SAC T I ONS IN Q3

20 23

2023

20 23

20 22

$2 8 M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 5 TR ANSAC TI O NS

$4 3M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 4 TR ANSAC T I O N S

$51 M + I N SAL ES VO LU M E | 7 TRA N SACT I O N S

$4.9M+ IN SA LES VO LU M E | 1 TR ANSAC TI O N

$5.2M M E DI A N SA L E S P RI C E 54 AVE RAG E DAYS O N MA R K E T $5.65M

$7.45M H IGH E ST P RICE D SAL E IN Q 3

AV E RAG E SA L E S P R I C E

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

1435 E ST RE LLA DRIVE

“Typically, we’ve seen that a majority of high-net-worth buyers from out-of-town concentrate their property searches exclusively within Montecito. However, there is now a discernible trend emerging, characterized by a growing number of out-of-town buyers expanding their property searches to include Hope Ranch, and increasingly so, focusing exclusively on this area. We anticipate this burgeoning preference for Hope Ranch among high-net-worth non-local buyers to continue.” R YA N LOW E | H O P E R A N C H S P E C I A L I S T

THE DATA SHOWN ILLUSTRATES THE TOTAL SALES QUANTITY FOR A RANGE OF PRICE TIERS WITHIN THE HOPE RANCH REAL ESTATE MARKET DURING Q3 2023

SA L E S

SA LE S

UP TO $ 5 M

$ 5- 10M

SA L E S

SA LE S

$ 10 - 15 M

$ 15M+

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

$10M+ HO PE R A N C H M A R K ET

4 TOTAL $1 0 M+ T RA N SAC TI O N S I N Q1- Q 3 2 0 2 3

Total $10M+ Sales in Q1-Q3 (Year Over Year) Q1 - Q 3 20 23

4 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 22

8 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 21

6 SALES

Q1 - Q 3 20 20

2 SALES

50% D E C R E ASE I N TOTAL $1 0 M+ SALE S DURIN G Q1 - Q3 YEAR OVER YEAR , 202 2 TO 2 02 3

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

C O M I N G S O O N | 1 8 4 5 E A S T M O U N TA I N D R I V E , M O N T E C I TO, C A

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

C O M I N G S O O N | 1 8 3 9 E A S T M O U N TA I N D R I V E , M O N T E C I TO, C A

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

V I N TA G E M O N T E C I TO FA R M H O U S E 2.81 ACRES +/- | 5,900 SQFT +/- | 6 BEDS | 6.5 BATHS

Offered for $7,650,000

865 ROMERO CANYON ROAD, MONTECITO, CA Welcome to this breathtaking 2.81 acre +/- Montecito property that boasts an authentic East Coast farmhouse of almost 6,000 sqft +/-, surrounded by stunning oak trees and manicured landscaping. Only minutes away from Montecito’s Upper Village, yet a world away from the hustle and bustle of daily life, creating a sense of privacy and tranquility. This Montecito property presents a rare opportunity to potentially build new structures or renovate the existing home, making it the perfect canvas for creating your dream estate.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E P R I VAT E M A R K E T Through our extensive network of clients and top tier agents, we have a collection of curated off-market opportunities accessible exclusively through The Ebbin Group. Clients who buy and sell through our firm in the private market can expect discreet one-to-one service and client confidentiality.

C O N TA C T T O L E A R N M O R E

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

RECENT

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

EBBIN G

GROUP

SALES

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

T H E P I N N AC L E O F OJA I L I V I N G OJAI, CA | SELLER REPRESENTATION

$18,000,000

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

R E L A X E D M O N T EC I TO E L EG A N C E 1 0 45 C O L D SP R I NGS R OAD | BU Y ER R EP R E S E N TAT I O N

$16,900,000

F R E N C H C O U N T R Y R E T R E AT 7 4 7 VIA M ANA NA | B U YER REPRESEN TATI O N

$10,750,000

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

OCEAN VIEW MIDCENTURY MODERN 3 070 SE AC L IFF | S ELLER A ND BU YER R EP R ESENTATI O N

$10,000,000

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

CONTEMPORARY MASTERPIECE 2 888 GL ENDESSARY L ANE | SEL L ER & BU Y ER R E P R E S E N TAT I O N

$4,250,000

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

T H E E B B I N G RO U P E D G E White-glove client service, innovative marketing and branding strategies, scrupulous business practices and record-breaking sales make The Ebbin Group one of the top-producing and most recognized names in Santa Barbara, Montecito, and Ojai real estate. With a proprietary listing management and marketing analytics system, we provide best-in-class service and a multifaceted, competitive advantage in selling luxury properties.

HYPER-TARGETED SALES OUTREACH Proprietary wealth-mapping technology provides us a database of comprehensive dossiers on the world’s high-net-worth individuals, with demographic details such as age, net worth, business, interests and affiliations. This data enables strategic, direct outreach to the most qualified luxury prospects whose personal interests and lifestyle preferences align with a property’s unique characteristics.

A FULL SUITE OF CREATIVE TOUCHPOINTS With dynamic property films, architectural and lifestyle photography, and targeted print and digital material, we ensure that your offering gains maximized exposure and engages the most qualified demographic. Digital advertising affords unparalleled precision in tracking and measurement. Facilitating meticulous evaluation of advertsing effectiveness, our data-driven approach allows for continuous refinement of targeting, messaging, and creative design to culminate the most effective advertising campaign.

TAILORED MARKETING APPROACH With an in-house dedicated marketing team, we tailor our marketing programs unique to each listing, utilizing compelling and artful creative that sets your property apart and appeals to its most precise demographic. With online marketing expertise and a substantial advertising budget, we leave no stone unturned, tirelessly target marketing to potential purchasers of your home.

WHITE GLOVE CONCIERGE SERVICE Other firms may claim to offer concierge service but at The Ebbin Group we deliver beyond our competition by offering our clients a gateway to an entire real estate lifestyle ecosystem. With “insider” access and relationships, we provide our clients valuable recommendations and introductions to soughtafter interior designers, architects, contractors, and a multitude of other service providers.

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

THE EBBIN GROUP

WORK WITH US A recognized leader in luxury real estate in the exclusive areas of Montecito, Hope Ranch, Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, and Ojai. Our expertise in market trends, contract negotiation, architecture & design, strategic investments, and access to off-market properties provides our clients with invaluable insight and a distinct advantage in achieving their real estate objectives.

LUXURY MARKET REPORT

VISIT OUR WEBSITE

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M The Ebbin Group is THE dream team. Since representing us both as buyers and sellers, I can honestly say their genius on both sides of a real estate transaction is supreme. They are negotiators that know when to hit the gas pedal and when to tap the brakes. Excellence requires character, integrity, nuance, and experience. There is no one better.” - One Of Many Satisfied Clients

T H E E B B I N G R O U P. C O M

LU K E E B B I N PRINCIPAL & FOUNDING AGENT DRE 01488213

RYA N LO W E ASSOCIATE AGENT & DIRECTOR OF MARKETING DRE 02119380

K R I S TA LU C A S DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS & CLIENT SERVICES

U N M ATC H E D R E P R E S E N TAT I O N O F E X C E P T I O N A L LU X U R Y R E A L E S TAT E IF YOU’RE CONSIDERING BUYING OR SELLING A HOME, OR WOULD LIKE TO RECEIVE A PROPERTY VALUE CONSULTATION PLEASE CONTACT US

Compass is a licensed real estate broker and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only. Information is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.

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