Future of Cities Project Overview

DRAFT:

Future of Cities Version 7/16/14

Project Overview | July 2014

Foresight Programme

“Helps make decisions today that are resilient to the future” Foresight’s major one to two-year studies looking at key issues 10 - 100 years in the future where science and technology are the main drivers for change, or offer key solutions

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Future of Cities Project Overview

Foresight Reports Cyber Trust

Flooding

2004

2005

Global Food

2011

Computer Trading

2012 Future of Cities Project Overview

Intelligent Infrastructure

Infectious Diseases

2006 Mental Capital

Land Use

2010

Migration

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Brain Science

2009

Obesity

2008

2007

Identity

Disasters

2013

Underpinning Policy with Evidence Major UK policy streams

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Flooding

Obesities

Mental Capital

Flooding & Coastal Defence

Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

Mental Capital & Wellbeing

Future of Cities Project Overview

The Future of UK Cities

 The UK is one of the three most populous countries in the EU and one with the most cities  It has one of EU’s highest shares of population living in a city or commuting zone (~74%)  London is EU’s richest Metropolitan area

Cities are the locus of future UK growth Total resident population in Urban Audit core cities Eurostat (2011)

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Future of Cities Project Overview

Future of Cities Project There are many core questions, including: ●

What will urban life look like in the future?

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What makes a strong urban economy?

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How could urban form and structures evolve?

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How will city ambitions relate to national frameworks?

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How can cities of the future be made more resilient?

Health DPW Education

DECC

Project aim: Provide central and local government with an evidence base to support decisions in the short term which will lead to positive outcomes for cities in the long term Our objectives are to: i.

Identify challenges and opportunities facing UK cities ii. Explore policy options with govt. departments and agencies 6

Future of Cities Project Overview

DEFRA BIS

DCLG

DCMS Transport

Our Approach We are engaging with a broad range of stakeholders through working papers, seminars, workshops and futures exercises to develop the evidence base.

Academics Local Authorities Working papers

Sponsor Minister and GCSA

Major employers Third Sector

Evidence

City seminars

Central Government Practitioners

Project Team

Lead Expert Group

City futures

Young people Institutes Future Cities Catapult

Workshops

Two scales of analysis – UK System of Cities – Individual Cities as Systems

Future of Cities Project Overview

Two time horizons – 2040 – 2065

+ many others

Project themes

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LIVING IN CITIES • Belonging, Citizenship & Identity • Living In The City • People In Cities: The Numbers • Urban Social Disparities • Urban Housing Trends • Cities: The Cultural Dimension

URBAN FORM & INFRASTRUCTURE • Urban Form & Infrastructure: A Morphological Review • Future Of Retail & Urban Centres • Intercity Infrastructure • Connectivity Within Cities • Land

URBAN ECONOMIES • The Evolving Economic Performance Of The UK System of Cities • London - UK Relationship • Private Finance & Urban Development • Future City Economies • Urban Labour Markets

URBAN METABOLISM • Urban Metabolism: Flows Within & Between Cities • Urban Ecosystem Services • Impact of Climate Variability on urban Developments

SCIENCE OF CITIES • The Science Of Urban Planning Practice • What Is A City?

• Coping With Change: Resilience, Adaptability & Path Dependence • Data & Smart Cities • Future Cities Global Scan

URBAN GOVERNANCE • Comparative Urban Governance • Public Finance & Cities • Cities & Public Policy • Corridors & Nodes • Leadership • Public Services

Future of Cities Project Overview

URBAN FUTURES  Urban Scenarios  Cities Visions Of Place

What we will provide, when Phase one: •

Working Papers

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Evidence Retrieval Platform

Phase two: •

Future Urban Scenarios Digital Environment (Eurban)

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Final Report

On-going: •

Workshop and seminar reports

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Blog posts

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Think Pieces

futureofcities.blog.gov.uk

Phase Two

Phase One June 2013

June 2014

Working Paper Publications

Future of Cities Project Overview

Nov 2014

Interim Report

Evidence Retrieval Platform (β-version)

Nov 2015

Scenarios & Futures work

Future Urban Scenarios Digital Environment

Drivers of Change The project identifies some of the key processes influencing the development of UK cities. These have wide ranging and interrelated implications.

Increasing population Ageing demography

UK population increase relative to 1981 levels (000s)

Increasing connectedness

Increasing diversity Environmental changes Technological innovation

25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1981-91 1991-2001 2001-11

2012-37

16M increase by 2062

Future of Cities Project Overview

2037-62

Ethnic diversity across LAs 2001 - 2051

Challenges The project has identified some of the key challenges faced by the UK city system and individual UK cities.

URBAN ECONOMIES • • •

North-South spatial imbalance in economic performance Asymmetrical treatment of cities (city deals, investment bias) Increasing skills gaps

URBAN FORM & INFRASTRUCTURE • •

High levels of required infrastructure investment Densification of city centres

URBAN GOVERNANCE LIVING IN CITIES • •

Increasing social disparities Changing work life balance

URBAN METABOLISM • •

Negative urban health impacts Resource price volatility

Future of Cities Project Overview

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Degrees of fiscal decentralisation Privatisation of public service delivery

SCIENCE OF CITIES • •

Lack of spatial literacy in policy Lack of strategic overview for UK and city systems

Challenges URBAN ECONOMIES example

Relationship between Output Growth and Employment Growth across British Cities Classified into North and South (Average Annual Growth Rates for 1981-2011)

Future of Cities Project Overview

City Seminars Meetings in 18 cities with representatives from:  Local Governments and the Public Sector  Universities  Local Employers / Private Sector  Local Charities / Third Sector

Future of Cities Project Overview

City Seminars Three prominent emerging themes: -

Social disparities Close proximity of richest and most deprived areas; how to alleviate social disparity

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Employment (and skills) Future employment trends would shape city; Skills disparities

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Transport Inter/intra city links needed; importance of connectivity

The groups were encouraged to continue the process and commission their own local foresight projects to look at the future of their city.

Future of Cities Project Overview

Policy Challenges

The challenges emerging from the growing evidence base have major policy implications for the provision of services.

Four questions guide the exploration of the possibly future directions of policy development: 1.

2.

3.

4.

What and who goes where?

How do we connect?

How do we pay for it?

Who decides?

Income per capita at the ward level (Household income per week in GBP)

Future of Cities Project Overview

Next Steps

Future of Cities Project Overview

@ www

Foresight.FutureofCities@bis.gsi.gov.uk

futureofcities.blog.gov.uk @foresightgovuk #FutureCities