Miller Report May 2020

THE

MILLER REPORT May 2020

The

Miller Group

Your Trusted AIP Realtors

IT'S MILLER TIME! JUST SOLD!

2 Buckthorne Drive

75 Sea Marsh Road

3113 Sea Marsh Road

Amelia Island Plantation

Amelia Island Plantation

Amelia Island Plantation

$1,230,000

$1,000,000

$515,000

FEATURED LISTINGS

8 Sound Point Place

2 Salt Marsh Drive

Long Point

Long Point

Amelia Island Plantation

Amelia Island Plantation

$3,200,000

$1,400,000 (under contract as of this writing)

STAY INFORMED! WEEKLY UPDATES ABOUT THE MARKET DURING COVID-19

First and foremost, we pray that everyone in our community is safe and well. Please let us know if we can do anything to assist you during these difficult times. You can text or call us at 904-557-5720.

We will be releasing weekly podcast episodes on The Miller Group Real Estate Show to cover real estate market updates, interest rate changes and what they mean for you, help guides for vacation rental owners, virtual technology updates, and more.

Recent & Upcoming Episodes

How To Protect & Increase Short-term Rental Income After COVID-19 Exclusive Interview, Wells Fargo Senior Economist Mark Vitner | Economic Outlook 2020 & Beyond Mortgage Markets & Jumbo Loans Amid COVID-19: An Interview With John Donahoo

How To Listen To The Miller Group Real Estate Show: 1.) Go to our website and click on the podcast tab. www.millergroupofamelia.com 2.) Subscribing to our podcast on iTunes by searching for The Miller Group Real Estate Show.

NASSAU COUNTY STATISTICS HOMES

CONDOS

PLANTATION STATISTICS

PLANTATION ANALYSIS Where Has The Market Been?

The number of Amelia Island Plantation (later referenced as AIP in this article) sales for January through February (all property types combined) dropped from 25 in 2019 to 14 in 2020. Both AIP villas and homes have experienced a decline in the number of sales year over year during this period. Remember, this period was before the coronavirus began to impact the United States economy, so why did AIP have a decline in sales? We think inventory was the culprit. AIP villa inventory was down all throughout 2019 as compared to 2018. This trend continued into 2020. While overall villa inventory is down, the bigger impact is from a shift in the mix of inventory. Over the past 10 years, AIP villas priced under $500k have made up 54% of total villa inventory and accounted for 59% of all villa sales. January through February 2020, villas priced under $500k only represented 28% of active listings. In fact, all other price point categories above $500k have increased sales over 2019. So up until the coronavirus, villa sales have actually been strong considering the reduction in inventory. The number of AIP home sales has also been in decline since last September compared to the previous year. We think inventory was the root cause here as well. Total home inventory has actually been up slightly year over year. However, the mix of inventory shifted towards higher-priced homes. For example, homes priced over $2m have represented only 4% of total AIP home sales over the past 10 years yet in January/February 2020, this category represents 19% of active listings.

What Is The Market Doing Now? Although the stock market volatility began around February 21st 2020, the impacts of COVID-19 on the real estate market did not begin to appear until safety concerns over the virus spread throughout the United States. Looking at March 15th, 2020 through April 25th, 2020, we can get an accurate picture of what is currently happening in our local real estate market.

During this period, the number of AIP sales were actually up 46% (19 sales compared to 13) over the same time period last year. This was due to an unusually slow start to March in 2019 which might have been impacted by (continue reading on next page)

PLANTATION ANALYSIS a late April Easter. The number of Nassau County sales were down 12% (230 compared to 261) during the same period. However, the number of sales is usually a lagging indicator of the market's direction because it reflects activity from 30 to 60 days prior. New pending sales ( properties going under contract) is a more accurate indicator of where the market is currently. As expected, the number of new pending sales has dropped dramatically. AIP new pending sales for all property types dropped 45% during March 15th, 2020 through April 25th, 2020 compared to last year. Nassau County new pending sales were down 39% during this same period. Given people's fear of COVID-19 and "shelter-at-home" policies, not as many buyers are out looking at homes. However, there still are some buyers and they are most likely more serious as a group. The number of new listings has also dropped during COVID-19. The number of new AIP listings from March 15th through April 25th dropped 45% in 2020 compared to 2019.

Where Is The Market Headed?

It's clear that we will experience a drop in the number of sales in May as a result of reduced pending sales over the past few weeks. The bigger question is: what happens in the 2nd half of 2020 and throughout 2021? We do think there will be strong economic ramifications from shutting down our economy. How this will impact Amelia Island real estate is unclear. We think that the market will experience a boom of activity when states begin to "reopen" and pent-up demand is released. Amelia Island will benefit from people looking to move out of bigger cities as a result of COVID-19. When speaking with our clients who live in larger cities and have second homes here on Amelia Island, they have all expressed how much they can't wait to return to the island. We've already had buyers reach out to us looking to buy and/or rent properties here in AIP because they feel it would be a safer and more enjoyable place to live. There are also young families looking to relocate here from urban hubs like Atlanta and they will finally be able to do so as work-remote will be more commonly accepted by employers.

This boom could be short-lived. Markets across the country will most likely experience turbulence as the economic ramifications of the shutdowns begin to sink in. But we think this too will be temporary and long-term, we absolutely think the real estate outlook for Amelia Island and AIP is positive.

ACTS OF KINDNESS On the news you hear about people hoarding toilet paper and other bad things.

And while we've all experienced some of the negative side of human nature, we've also seen the beautiful side blossom amidst this challenging environment.

We've seen people go out of their way to help a neighbor and a community band together to support one another as much as possible. In this article, we wanted to take a moment to thank those who we have witnessed committing an act of kindness for their fellow man. We know there are many more people who deserve to be thanked so we invite you to join us in thanking those who you've seen demonstrate generosity, kindness, and love during this time of crisis. Please send them a note or call them to let them know your gratitude. Also, we have posted this article on our Facebook and Instagram accounts so please comment on these posts with your thanks and tag your friends, neighbors, and businesses who you've witnessed going above and beyond to serve their community.

As we said before, there are many others who also deserve recognition and gratitude, but here are the stories we've personally witnessed and want to recognize:

Our Healthcare Professionals: Our local healthcare professionals have put their own safety at risk to do their duty of protecting the lives of others. They're putting in long hours of hard work to the benefit of complete strangers. Their dedication to their job and their compassion for humanity are beacons of hope during this crisis. There are many healthcare professionals in this community who are going above and beyond the call of duty who deserve recognition. I'd like to recognize a few friends who work in hospitals in New York City and have properties here at AIP. They have been heroes in NYC and are working extremely hard to save lives.

Thank you for everything you do!

AIP Residents Jamie Nelson & JeMe Mosca

THANKING OUR COMMUNITY AIPCA Security Officers & AIPCA Staff: We often take for granted the benefits we receive from these hardworking members of our community. During COVID-19, our security officers have had to put their own health at risk while keeping our community safe by interacting with hundreds of property owners, family members, and guests who enter our gates. A big thank you to our security team and the AIPCA staff!

Osprey Village: When COVID-19 caused a masshoarding of toilet paper and other supplies, Osprey Village extended a helping hand to AIP residents by allowing them to order essentials through their vendors which were still able to obtain food and supplies. Their Dining Services team also delivered meals to their members every day. These acts of kindness demonstrate how beautifully our community can pull together in times of need. We thank Osprey Village for their support and generosity.

Amelia Island Club Employees: The employees of the Amelia Island Club have tried to make life here at AIP as enjoyable as possible during social distancing and COVID-19. When in-dining restaurants were closed, the Club employees have adapted by offering to-go and delivery services so that Club members don't have to cook every meal. In a "stay-at-home" world, receiving a meal prepared by someone else can be a small blessing and we thank the Club employees for still serving our community as best as they can.

THANK YOU! Local Businesses: Small businesses will be hit the hardest over the coming months. Many have had to shutdown their normal operations, layoff employees, and shut their doors. It is a difficult time to be a small business but we are also seeing the ingenuity of entrepreneurism at work. Local retail stores like JJ Cooper offered private styling sessions to keep customers safe. Our favorite watering holes like the Decantery and Palace Saloon got creative by hosting virtual wine tastings and alcohol delivery. They have even had an employee known as Captain Punch, deliver alcohol dressed up as a superhero. Bookstores like Story and Song are hosting live virtual book readings and fitness centers are producing virtual workout classes. Topstitch Custom Canvas has been making masks for other local organizations like the Nassau County School Nutrition Association so they could safely serve free meals to students. We thank all of our local small businesses for their ingenuity and service during COVID-19.

Topstitch Owner Amy Robillard sewing masks for the Nassau County School Nutrition Association

Palace Saloon employee Jonathon Lucas, a.k.a "Captain Punch", delivering alcohol to quarantined residents.

THE FUTURE IS VIRTUAL Have you bought or sold a property? Then you know how cumbersome the process can be. The workflow has remained the same for decades but in fact it is inconvenient and time-consuming for all parties involved. However, there is a game changer and it already transforming how the real estate industry functions - virtual technology. The power of virtual technology can save buyers, sellers, and agents time and money. You've probably already heard about how virtual tech is revolutionizing the industry, but you probably aren't seeing much changes in the day to day practices of local real estate agents. Our market can be slow in adopting new practices but change is coming. The Miller Group has been using cutting-edge virtual tech for years and we've been impressed with the results. Below, we've listed some of the technology we use and how it can benefit you as a property owner.

Virtual Property Showcases: The Miller Group has been using three-dimensional property showcases for years and they have saved our clients time and money.

Think of all the time wasted for buyers, sellers, and agents during the home search process. Buyers spend hours touring numerous properties just to narrow down their search to a few that interest them and sellers must take time out of their day to accommodate all of these showings. Virtual property showcases helps solve these problems, allowing millions of people to virtually visit properties without leaving their homes. Simply pull up a Miller Group property showcase and you can experience immersive, three-dimensional walkthroughs of our listings. In a matter of minutes, you can virtually visit dozens of locations and decide which are worth visiting in person. We have been impressed with the results generated by our virtual showcases. We sold an Ocean Club Villa to a buyer sight unseen because they were able to tour the property virtually. We have also used this technology to help promote vacation rentals to potential guests before they book. We consider saving our customer’s time a valuable part of our service and virtual property showcases are a great way to do it. We expect this technology to become more common in the industry as customer’s expectations shift as a result of the coronavirus.

Virtual Staging & Design/Architectural Visualization: Imagine showing an empty property with no or very few pieces of furniture. Now imagine exactly the same house or apartment but full of furniture and looking cozy and appealing. Which of these would be easier to sell? The answer is obvious. Though staging is a great way to market properties, it requires investment, particularly if you’re selling newly built properties. (continue reading on next page.)

THE FUTURE IS VIRTUAL Virtual technology is a great way for realtors to market staged properties with very little investment. The Miller Group virtually stages any vacant properties or properties with vacant rooms. We also work with a company which can create virtual changes to interior design. For example, if a listing has an outdated kitchen which is unappealing to buyers, we can virtually "renovate" that kitchen to update the look and feel at no cost to the property owners. This allows buyers to see a property's potential once updated. Both of these tools have been instrumental in helping our sellers sell their homes for the most amount of money in the least amount of time. We have provided some sample photos below this text.

Virtual Brokerage Offices: Last year, we moved the Miller Group to eXp Realty, the fastest growing and most cutting-edge brokerage in the world. It is the only virtual, cloud-based brokerage and one of the reasons we were attracted to eXp, was its virtual “office” called eXp World. This virtual space is a vast digital campus on a scale usually reserved for companies like Apple and Google, which allows eXp agents (over 28,000) from all over the globe to gather to share best practices, train, problem solve, and more. Before being introduced to eXp, we would never have thought all this was possible in a virtual world. We anticipate other brokerages and companies will adopt this tech which was built by VirBella, a technology company owned by eXp. As other brokerages begin to adopt virtual technology, operational efficiency will reduce expenses allowing the cost savings to be passed on to clients.

THE MILLER GROUP REAL ESTATE SHOW JUST RELEASED! EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW, WELLS FARGO SENIOR ECONOMIST MARK VITNER | ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2020 & BEYOND In this episode James and Dave interview Mark Vitner, managing director and senior economist for Wells Fargo, to discuss the outlook of the U.S. and Amelia Island economies over the next 18 months. Mark covers a range of topics including real estate markets, the travel and hospitality industry, labor markets, the energy industry, and more.

To listen to this episode, go to our website and click on the podcast link in the top menu or type in this URL: https://www.millergroupofamelia.com/podcast-2/

STAY TUNED FOR THESE UPCOMING EPISODES! HOW TO PROTECT & INCREASE SHORT-TERM RENTAL INCOME AFTER COVID-19 AMELIA ISLAND PLANTATION HISTORY SERIES THE BLUEBERRY RANCH: ORGANIC FARMING IN NASSAU COUNTY

www.millergroupofamelia.com/podcast-2/

Who do you know that needs help buying or selling real estate? We would love to help them!

The Miller Group

James Miller 904-557-5720 jdmiller8@outlook.com Dave Miller 904-206-0525 dfmillerjr54@gmail.com