THE
MILLER REPORT July 2020
The
Miller Group
Your Trusted AIP Realtors
IT'S MILLER TIME! JUST LISTED! 18 SALT MARSH DRIVE
Beautiful estate home with stunning marsh views on prestigious Salt Marsh Drive. If you are looking for an Amelia Island oasis, this is it! Concrete block home with the best of everything. Spectacular sunsets over the marshes of the ICW. 4700+ square feet of heated living space plus another 1480 square feet of screened patio, lanai, summer kitchen, and pool. 4 bedrooms, 5 full bathrooms, gourmet kitchen, luxurious home theater, walk-in pantry, temperature controlled wine cellar, huge walk-in his and hers closets. Master bath features stand-alone tub, double entry-garden shower. Upgraded Fine Arts Lighting, 3 car garage, Murano glass light fixtures and more! Give us a call today to schedule a private in-person or virtual tour!
For 24/7 prerecorded information about this listing, call 1-833-491-0887 ext 1045
IT'S MILLER TIME! JUST SOLD! 605 OCEAN CLUB COURT
2091 BEACH WOOD ROAD
$2,075,000
$484,900
FEATURED LISTINGS 8 Sound Point Place Long Point Amelia Island Plantation $3,200,000
WANTED! WE HAVE A LIST OF BUYERS LOOKING FOR THE FOLLOWING PROPERTIES: Single Family Home in the Plantation with 2000 to 4000 square feet, priced under $1.2 million. Condo in the Plantation, approved for short-term rentals, priced under $600k, oceanfront or across from the beach. Marsh-front home in the Plantation, priced under $2 million.
Inventory is low and we need your help to find properties that fit the above criteria. Please give us a call if you can assist us!
PLANTATION STATISTICS
PLANTATION ANALYSIS Within the Amelia Island Plantation, sales were down in May 2020 by 14 closings compared to the previous year. This was a major drop in sales which was a result from the coronavirus pandemic . The good news is that at the time of this writing, sales and new pending sales have exploded in June compared to last year. At this moment, there have been 17 closings and 22 new pending sales in June 2020 compared to 13 closings and 14 new pending sales in 2019. The average price point in June 2020 is significantly higher than last year. With the increases in the number of pending sales and average price point, it is possible that AIP catches up in total sales volume to last year by the end of July. We will keep a close eye on the market to continue to inform our readers. For more information about the local real estate market, subscribe to The Miller Group Real Estate Show podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Stitcher.
STAY INFORMED! Subscribe to the Miller Group Real Estate Show podcast to receive frequent updates about our local real estate market. We produce our podcast weekly so it is the best way to get your pulse on the local market. There are two ways to subscribe: 1.) Go to our website, www.MillerGroupOfAmelia.com/the-millerreport/ to subscribe. 2.) Text Miller Report to 31996 and we'll send you a link to subscribe.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK: A SLOWING RECOVERY MAY WAIT IN THE WINGS “The road to recovery.” “Beginning to return.” “Sales are bouncing back.” Those are just a few of the upbeat takes economic experts recently shared when asked how the housing market is shaping up at the beginning of the summer — a normally busy buying season that this year is filled with uncertainty thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic has exacted a massive toll on the economy, but as those quotes above indicate, the housing market has so far not fallen off a cliff. And while things aren’t completely back to normal, the consensus among housing-focused economists is that looking back over the last few months things have been heading in the right direction. However, looking forward into the rest of the summer and fall, there may be cause to re-cork the champagne: Multiple experts said in recent days that the full economic impacts of the pandemic may not yet have reached the real estate industry, and there may be some sluggishness on the horizon. And while another Great Recession now appears unlikely, at least as it pertains to housing, a full return to normal also appears to be a long way off. Here are some of the key trends that may play out over the coming months:
Prices May Drop A Bit Probably the biggest news here is that multiple forecasts currently suggest prices will go down in the coming months. A report last week from Zillow is among the most recent of those projections and indicated that prices could come down by 1.8 percent by October compared to this year’s high point in February. “The year-over-year change is expected to bottom out at -0.7 percent,” the report stated, adding that there may also be a “slow recovery until about spring 2021.” Skylar Olsen, a senior economist at Zillow, said that some earlier projections actually foresaw prices dropping by as much as 3 percent. However, the updated thinking is that pent up demand will prevent such a significant drop, at least in the short term. “It does make me optimistic,” she said. On the other hand, Olsen said that if more new listings don’t hit the market and “seller confidence doesn’t join buyer confidence, then this recovery will absolutely slow.” And either way, years of continuous price growth appear to be over. “We expect prices to be at their lowest point in October this year,” she added. Olsen also doesn’t expect the impacts to be distributed evenly. Though many agents have over the last month described surging consumer interest in homes at the more affordable end of the spectrum, Olsen said that slice of the market will be vulnerable in the coming months. That’s because consumers looking at more affordable price points are also the most likely to be impacted by things like unemployment. “Nothing is going to be even about this recovery,” she said. “Lower price point housing is going to have a harder time.” Either way, though, CoreLogic has also predicted a coming price drop. In early June, the company published a report noting that prices had thus far held steady, but stating that “a decline is looming.” “Looking ahead,” the report explains, “the CoreLogic [Home Price Index] Forecast predicts an annual price decline of 1.3 percent from April 2020 to April 2021.” However, while a consensus appears to be growing that modest price declines are in the offing, not everyone is convinced. Matthew Gardner, the chief economist at Windermere, is familiar with the recent reports from Zillow and CoreLogic but said “I’m not seeing that.” "I think we could potentially eke out a very modest gain,” he argued. Gardner explained that since World War II, the U.S. housing market has only seen price drops on an annualized basis twice.
NATIONAL OUTLOOK: A SLOWING RECOVERY MAY WAIT IN THE WINGS But the current crisis doesn’t resemble those prior events, the most recent of which was the Great Recession. That’s in part because lending practices are different now, and also because the supply and demand equation is better poised to sustain price growth. “We are absolutely not oversupplied as we were before,” Gardner added. But whatever happens, Olsen said it probably won’t fundamentally change the equation for most consumers — including would-be buyers who may have been hoping for relief after years of appreciation priced them out of the market. “It could be the case that home price drops are significant,” Olsen said. “But for buyers I think something really important to consider is if you’re buying a home when prices are starting to go soft it’s so hard to time the market. The advice I give them is don’t time the market. Be constantly looking and when you find your match, make the move.”
Mortgage Rates Should Stay Low Though modest price declines may be on the horizon, the good news for consumers of all stripes is that experts believe low mortgages are here to stay through the coming months and beyond. “I think it’s going to depend on how the economy evolves,” Hale said. “But our expectation is we’ll see low, maybe not record low, but quite low rates for a few years.” Olsen agreed, saying “I think they’re going to stay pretty low for a long time now.” And Gardner added that he “doesn’t see us seeing 4 percent mortgages until 2022.” Moreover, the impacts of low rates are already being felt; Taylor Marr, a lead economist and data scientist at Redfin, said that the low rates are “helping accelerate buyers coming back into the market” and “that’s likely to continue for most of the summer.” “It’s unlikely that mortgage rates are going to shoot up very quickly,” he added. Hale offered a similar perspective, saying that the mortgage rates appear to be fueling demand beyond what might have existed purely as a result of the months-long economic shutdown. “It’s unlikely that mortgage rates are going to shoot up very quickly,” he added. Hale offered a similar perspective, saying that the mortgage rates appear to be fueling demand beyond what might have existed purely as a result of the months-long economic shutdown.
The Big Picture While it’s clear that the housing market has been fairly resilient so far, many industry professionals overall advise caution as summer begins. Chris Heller, the chief real estate officer for startup OJO Labs, was among them, saying that “on a macro level we haven’t experienced the true economic impact of what has and is happening.” Heller thinks the full economic impact of the crisis will take between six and 12 months to fully play out in the real estate market. “We’re going to see a very active summer,” Heller said. “The pent up demand from 60 to 90 days of dramatically reduced activity when it starts to hit, which it is now, feels like a tsunami. But like a tsunami, it doesn’t last for a prolonged period of time. Summer will be active and then things will settle down.” Marr also expects an active summer. But he said that despite an ongoing recovery there “are a few different mixed signals that could play out over the next few months.” One of the biggest of those signals is unemployment, and the prospect of layoffs becoming permanent rather than temporary. “That’s the biggest concern,” he said, “that that will slowly drag on housing demand.” Hale agreed that if unemployment remains high the consequences for housing will grow. “Even though the unemployment rate is well above record levels, in many ways workers aren’t feeling the pain in their pocket books,” Hale explained. “The longer it takes the jobs market to go back to a normal environment — and I don’t think anyone has a good answer for how long that’s going to take — the more likely we are to see disruption in housing demand.” (Continued on the next page.)
NATIONAL OUTLOOK: A SLOWING RECOVERY MAY WAIT IN THE WINGS Another related caveat is the prospect of foreclosures. During the last recession, a multitude of homeowners found themselves underwater on their mortgages and also out of a job. Eventually, according to Olsen, “what caused prices to come tumbling down was absolutely foreclosures.” “It was a flood of distressed sales” she added. Everyone seems clear that this economic downturn is different. Homeowners tend to have more equity in their homes now, for one thing, and the crisis isn’t linked to risky lending practices as it was a decade ago. Additionally, a number of forbearance programs exist to give homeowners more time to pay if they’ve been hit by hard times. “There is reason to believe that we could avoid widespread delinquencies and foreclosures because of the health of homeowners before this crisis,” Olsen said. Still, there is some cause for concern. In early June, for example, a trio of CoreLogic analysts argued that unemployment could actually peak at the end of the year, and that the virus’ impacts “could lead to significantly higher mortgage default in the next several years.” Gardner also said that even if homeowners have more flexibility with their payments, the larger economic system still has to keep money flowing. “Even though you or I as a homeowner may legally not pay our mortgage,” he explained, “the company we would send our check to is still on the hook to make that payment to the bond holder.” Gardner does not anticipate an entirely calamitous outcome stemming from these factors, but they do offer something of a reality check and show that there are still open questions about the overall health of the housing market. The takeaway, then, is that as the market goes into the summer it’s experiencing something of a mixed bag. The recovery so far has been strong, even if the future is still somewhat uncertain. However, despite all of the things that could trip up the market — unemployment, foreclosures, another virus outbreak, etc. — the experts at least don’t see a complete apocalypse on the horizon. “I’m not going to say the housing market has gotten off completely free in this recession,” Hale said. But I do think it’s much better positioned and it’s not going to be the trigger for a recession this time the way it was last time.”
Article written by Jim Dalrymple II And Published By Inman News
We are excited to announce that as of this writing (June 17th 2020), The Miller Group has sold or put under contract more Amelia Island Plantation properties in dollar volume than any other Realtor! We thank all of our clients and community for your continued support!
FROM OUR TABLE TO YOURS Watermelon Salad With Feta Summer always evokes memories from childhood. Friends gathering (sociallydistanced) together for picnics, long days on the beach, grilling out by the pool, and people of all ages eating lots of watermelon. Watermelon is the perfect summer food because of its coolness and hydrating freshness. To this day whenever our matriarch, Kathy Miller, eats a watermelon slice, she is transported back to her grandparents’ south Georgia home, vividly recalling those hot summer days spent speed spitting the watermelon seeds off the back porch steps. These days she doesn't sit around spitting the seeds out, but she still does love a good cold watermelon. For summer suppers, she makes several versions of watermelon salad.
INGREDIENTS 8 cups seeded, chopped watermelon 1 cup feta cheese or substitute with white stilton cheese with mango and ginger 1/2 small Vidalia onion, quartered and thinly sliced 1/2 cup pine nuts, toasted 1/2 cup packed arugula 1/3 cup fresh parsley, chopped 1/4 cup fresh mint, chopped DRESSING 1/4 cup olive oil 2 T. fresh lemon juice or lime juice freshly ground pepper INSTRUCTIONS Combine first seven ingredients in a bowl. Whisk together dressing and pour over salad just before serving.
FROM OUR TABLE TO YOURS Gazpacho With Avocado and Corn Kathy loves side dishes that can be served cold or at room temperature which makes them ideal for summertime heat in July. Gazpacho is one of her favorite summer soups and its cold and refreshing nature is perfect for the season. This recipe has a unique twist, the addition of avocado and fresh cooked corn. The contrast between the coolness of the avocado and the zing of the cayenne pepper adds a nice touch.
INGREDIENTS 4 ears white corn, cooked and cut off cob 1 (46 ounce) can tomato juice 2 cucumbers, peeled and cubed (or 1 English hothouse cucumber) 3-4 ripe avocados, cubed 2 limes, squeezed 3 minced cloves of garlic 1.5 teaspoon red (cayenne) pepper 1/2 bunch cilantro, chopped INSTRUCTIONS Mix all ingredients and chill Can add more juice if needed for desired consistency. Serve with lime slice and sprinkle with fresh chopped cilantro as garnish
JOIN US LIVE! Real Estate Market Webinar 1st Half 2020 Amelia Island Plantation Did property values go up or down during the 1st half of 2020? Where is the real estate market headed during the 2nd half of the year? Is now a good time to buy or sell Amelia Island Plantation Real Estate? We'll answer all of these questions and more during our live real estate webinar! Email us at millergroupofamelia@gmail.com to register for the event! Cannot attend live? We will email a recording to all registrants!
Friday, July 24th at 2pm
THE AMELIA ISLAND REAL ESTATE SHOW JUST RELEASED! 5G AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR AMELIA ISLAND On this episode of the Miller Group Real Estate Show, James discusses 5G technology and how it will impact the future of Amelia Island. From "smart" cities, to autonomous cars, the "internet of things" will revolutionize how we live. Could this be the biggest evolution since the industrial revolution?
AMELIA ISLAND IN A HOT SELLER'S MARKET | BUYERS ARE WORKING REMOTE | MID JUNE 2020 MARKET UPDATE In this episode of the Miller Group Real Estate Show podcast, James discusses the Amelia Island and Plantation real estate markets which are in a hot seller's market. Pending sales are up as much as 111% as of June 17th 2020. Mortgage rates are at an all-time low. Big-city residents are looking to relocate to vacation properties. Acceptance of work remote will bring major changes to the local real estate market.
To listen to this episode, subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Stitcher. Or you can go to our website and click on the podcast link in the top menu or type in this URL:
www.millergroupofamelia.com/podcast-2/
Who do you know that needs help buying or selling real estate? We would love to help them!
The Miller Group
James Miller 904-557-5720 jdmiller8@outlook.com Dave Miller 904-206-0525 dfmillerjr54@gmail.com