Ranching By Weather Websites

BY DR. MEGAN CLAYTON, Extension Range Specialist, Texas A&M AgriLife Center in Corpus Christi, TX DR. JAY ANGERER, Associate Professor, Blackland AgriLife Research Center in Temple, TX

oth with the Department of Rangeland, Wildlife, and Fisheries Management at Texas A&M Uni- versity Ranching is rooted in culture. B The smell of cow hair, a dusty dashboard from a day of driving with the windows down, or the creek of an old, but still functioning windmill are timeless. Although nobody gets into ranching to become a deskbound worker, most would admit that techniques used to manage a ranch have improved tremendously in the past decade thanks to internet-based technologies.

In addition to the livestock market, ranching is centered around rainfall. Pocket notebooks and spiral-bound binders on consoles are often filled with rainfall records from different locations on a single ranch. This information is not just useful for bragging or pity rights at the coffee shop, these records tell a story and teach valuable lessons about rainfall trends and how to properly stage livestock herds to manage the forage for long-term success. Today these tools are available without ever leaving your home air conditioning. The first site to explore is brought to you by the National Weather Service (https://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php). This site for “Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service” allows you to type an address into the search box at the top right to investigate rainfall for daily, monthly, or yearly time ranges for the past 15 years (or so) up to the current day. The use of both weather gauge and satellite corrections provides a picture of overall rainfall on a particular property. Choosing the product option “Departure from Normal” is very telling, as it will visually reveal if rainfall is higher or lower than normal, giving ranchers the opportunity to manage their livestock herd accordingly. Keep in mind that this tool could overestimate summer rainfall because of very small rainfall events and convection storms. Fall and winter rainfall could be underestimated due to smaller droplet sizes and often more gentle rainfall events.

West Wide Drought Tracker (https://wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt/ time/) is another site that offers several different weather variables or indexes for viewing after selecting a site on the map. At the top, try using points (nearest 4x4-km

pixel), clicking on the map to select a point, then set the variable to be displayed with timespan on the righthand side of the screen. Selecting “SPI” (Standardized Precipitation Index) will provide an index tracking rainfall for the area. Selecting “SPEI” (standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index) combines the effects of rainfall and temperature so it may be more appropriate for hot and dry conditions often experienced in South Texas. The graph generated will demonstrate the historical index records and can easily be understood as years with above average rainfall as compared to years below normal. Changing the time periods in the “Time Series Box” on the right hand side will allow for a clear picture of how current conditions are trending as compared to past years and whether any action needs to be taken for livestock management.

Now that we can track our historical rainfall trends, how do we predict what is to come? We have all heard the joke about wanting to be a meteorologist on the televi sion. They can be wrong most of the time and keep their job! It turns out that weather is a tough thing to predict, but there is no better source than the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (https://www.cpc.

This website gives two maps – one for temperature probability and the other for precipitation. Clicking on the precipitation map on the right gives a broad look at the United States and what rainfall is expected. Like our pastures, the hope is to have some green coloration on South Texas to indicate above normal rainfall. The end of July map showed all of Texas in white, so we have equal chances of above, normal, or below normal rainfall. On the bright side, at least it is an honest answer and we are not brown, indicating a high likelihood of below normal rainfall!

The Climate Prediction Center’s forecasts are also used for predicting drought trends for the next 30 days (https://

ment/mdo_summary.php). The Drought Outlook map shows where drought conditions are likely to emerge, persist or improve during the next 30 days. They also provide a 90-day outlook (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.

php), which can be helpful in preparing for emerging or persisting drought.

After understanding how recent rainfall compares to historic averages, combined with predictions for the next month, what do you do with this information? Have you heard the saying “it’s not IF we will have another drought, but WHEN”? In addition to monitoring available forage for livestock, keeping a watch on rainfall trends can allow you to act early if warning signs point towards a potential dry period. You may decide to cull some cows, wean calves early, or change up your rotational grazing pattern.

With current, free tools available to anyone with internet access, there is no reason to be caught off guard by dry weather conditions. Proper monitoring and planning will minimize the impact of drought and allow you to confidently manage your forage for generations to come.