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NIGERIA

• F uture factories Meet the robot job-killers • Kenya The unheard anger • Zimbabwe Is making the right noises enough?

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South Africa

Rebuild the rule

of law Ramaphosa’s next struggle is for trust

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION

Algeria 550 DA • Belgium €5.90 • Canada CA$ 7.95 • DR Congo US$ 9 • Denmark 60 DK • DOM 8 € • Ethiopia 130 Birr • France €5.90 • Germany €5.90 • Ghana GH¢ 10 • Italy €5.90 • Kenya KES 410 • Morocco 40 DH • Netherlands €5.90 • Nigeria 800 NGN • Norway NK 70 • Portugal €5.90 • Rwanda RWF 6,000 • Sierra Leone LE 15,000 • South Africa R40 (tax incl.) • Spain €5.90 • Sweden SEK 70 • Switzerland 9.90 FS Tanzania TZS 10,000 • Tunisia 5.4 DT • Uganda UGX 10,000 • UK £4.50 • United States US$ 6.95 • Zambia 48 ZMW • Zimbabwe US$ 4 • CFA Countries 3,500 F CFA • Euro Zone €5.90

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NIGERIA

• Future factories Meet the robot job-killers • Kenya The unheard anger • Zimbabwe Is making the right noises enough?

20-page special

N ° 9 8 • M A R C H 20 18

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South Africa

Rebuild the rule

of law Ramaphosa’s next struggle is for trust

THE AFRICA REPORT # 98 - MARCH 2018 JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION

BUSINESS

04 EDITORIAL It takes a team to topple

62 FACTORIES The post-manufacturing future Robots and artificial intelligence are upending traditional pathways to industrialisation, and threatening jobs

06 LETTERS 08 THE QUESTION

BRIEFING 10 SIGNPOSTS 12 PEOPLE Jewel Howard Taylor, vice-president, Liberia 14 INTERNATIONAL 16 CALENDAR

18 OPINION Stephen Chan, professor, SOAS, UK

68 MINING Randgold, the cost killer 70 LEADERS Lola Kassim, General Manager West Africa, Uber

FRONTLINE 22 LAND How long must we be patient? Black South Africans were promised their land back in 1994. A failure to deliver has sparked anger and fear in the countryside: a tough test for the new president

COVER CREDITS: MOELETSI MABE/SUNDAY TIMES/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES; VERNIER/JBV NEWS

36 AFRICAN UNION Kagame takes the reins 40 OPINION Rebuilding trust is Ramaphosa’s next struggle 42 ANANSI Team South Africa scams Putin

COUNTRY FOCUS 45 NIGERIA Lights, camera, action The opening credits are rolling on Nigeria’s promised epic: ‘Beyond Oil Dependency’ THE AFRICA REPORT

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73 HANNIBAL DOSSIER CONSTRUCTION 74 Egypt’s new capital The government is developing a new $45bn city to take pressure off Cairo, as it struggles with poor planning and crowding 78 KENYA Is the bubble bursting? 80 WEST AFRICA China’s CCCC takes the long view

POLITICS 30 KENYA The unheard anger Politicians play out high-level chess moves while anger brews among Nairobi’s poor who are struggling to heal the wounds of post-electoral violence

72 FINANCE Why international banks are pulling out of Africa

ART & LIFE 82 PHOTO Bamako shines The photography biennale returned to its full glory in the Malian capital, a burst of imagination and deconstructed dreams of ‘Afrotopia’

62 82

86 THEATRE New rhythm in Lagos 87 TOURISM Romantic heights meet ancient sites 88 LIFESTYLE Nigerian highlife musician Adekunle Gold 89 TRAVEL Lamu Cultural Festival, Kenya 90 DAY IN THE LIFE Senegalese-Guinean percussionist Didi Keita

THE AFRICA REPORT A Jeune Afrique Media Group publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

It takes a team to topple

t might seem a tad smug for journalists to claim a critical role in the sinking of Jacob Zuma and the blocking of the criminal networks that fed off his presidency. But in an age when institutions face sustained attack around the world, the media should not be shy in pointing out when they have done something useful. Firstly, journalists such as the late Mandy Rossouw had the guts to look closely at the source of funding for Zuma’s homestead at Nkandla. Revelations about his misuse of state funds for the homestead had political consequences, and last year the African National Congress (ANC) lost a local election at Nkandla. Then South Africa’s journalists waded deeper into their country’s political weeds with a version of the ‘Pentagon Papers’ for the internet age. It was a cache of more than 200,000 emails hacked from the accounts of Zuma’s closest business allies. Those emails set out a train of corporate and political perfidy that prompted the foreign companies implicated to offer profuse apologies to the South African people. Details of over-priced contracts, sweeteners to ministers and pressure on directors of state companies poured out of those emails. Not only did media reports about the emails expose wrongdoing at the highest levels in the state and private companies, they did so in a way that strengthens the system of accountability drawn up by the authors of South Africa’s constitution. In the end, the very bitter end, the shooing out of Zuma was a collaborative venture. Leaders of the ANC delivered the coup de grace two months after electing Cyril Ramaphosa as its new

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

president. They would not have done it unless they had been well informed. Indeed, it could have been Zuma’s preferred candidate and not Ramaphosa who won the elections had it not been for the deluge of information. Leading characters in the drama also include brave, independentminded officials such as Thuli Madonsela, the former public protector who corralled investigative reports, firstly on Nkandla and then on the business networks linking Zuma, his allies and the Gupta family. Then it was the Constitutional Court, which, after reading This very Madonsela’s first report, ruled that Zuma public had breached his oath drama may of office. It took sevbe the eral more months to get Zuma to repay the final act for state funds spent on the ‘Big Man’ Nkandla. Committed officials in the revenue theory service and the Audiof power tor General’s office also helped to take down the Zuma network. Many other rigorously independent judges played their role alongside redoubtable chief justice Mogoeng Mogoeng. Lest anyone underestimates what was at stake, Madonsela received numerous death threats against herself and her children. This very public drama has an importance far beyond the fate of Jacob Zuma. It may be the final act for the ‘Big Man’ theory of power. Big institutions safeguarding integrity and the public good can and must push back against criminal corporate interests and the political snake-oil salesmen they enlist to their cause.

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY‑HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN B US I NE S S E D I T O R MARK ANDERSON R E S E A R CH & P R O D UCT I O N OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI RE G IO NA L E D I T O R CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) A RT & LI FE ED I T O R BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN S UB - E D I T O R S ALISON CULLIFORD ERIN CONROY P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SYDONIE GHAYEB CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) CAMILLE CHAUVIN R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY XAVIER ROUSSEAU SAMUEL BOUAROUA SALES SANDRA DROUET Tel: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – Fax: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 sales@theafricareport.com CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 4 College Road Business Park College Road North Aston Clinton HP22 5EZ United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk ExpressMag 8275 Avenue Marco Polo Montréal, QC H1E 7K1, Canada T : +1 514 355 3333 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 ‑ $60 ‑ £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS ‑ FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19‑60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com PRINTER: SIEP 77 ‑ FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950‑4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

NO BETTER TIME THAN NOW

Angola, South Affrrica, Zimbabwe... Is this change we can believe in?

João Lourenço, Cyril Ramaphosa, and Emmerson Mnangagwa

Bright Ghana

w the country Hoow finally fi turned the t lights on

t’s still early to accurately judge the success of the free senior high school policy [‘When education yearns to be free’, TAR97 Feb 2018]. The country definitely had to start one way or the other, and there is no better time than now. For a developing country like Ghana, it’s not entirely surprising that some challenges have AFRICAN been encountered in the early stages. However, COMPANIES A glimmer of hope with a good feedback system and collective efforts to address them, the policy can be continuously improved. The eventual success of the system goes beyond the good intentions with which it was created. All stakeholders involved, from teaching staff to parents and even students, will need to play their part. Going forward, citizens who benefit directly from the policy will need to be actively involved in the feedback system, and push, through available structures, to get their concerns represented as well as hold the government accountable to see to the success of the policy. Lawrence Adu-Gyamfi, Ghana

PLURALISM UNDER PRESSURE

Your editorial ‘Zimbabwe: The people’s message’ [TAR96 Dec 2017-Jan 2018] correctly examines the irresistible hunger for political and economic change in Africa. But before the message for change reaches the most sclerotic regimes in Africa, can we also consider the state of pluralism in other parts of the world? Recently Alexei Navalny, after being endorsed as the only opposition candidate by the people in Russia, had his bid rejected by the Central Election Commission of Russia. In Iran, thousands of people protested against hard economic times, including high food prices, and the government swiftly blocked all social media footage and online messaging via mobile phones. These new witness accounts in choosing to have relaxed hair. of the resistance for change in Africa It is a woman’s prerogative how she and all over the world show a lack chooses to wear her hair: bone-straight of respect for political pluralism, which and relaxed, or natural and kinky! is a catalyst for political legitimacy Michelle N. Ntalami, CEO & Founder, and economic transparency. N ° 9 7 • F E B R U A R Y 2 0 18

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JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP

INTERNATIONAL EDITION

WHAT IS NATURAL DOES NOT NEED EXAGGERATION My response is Yes, I feel natural African hair is exactly that: natural [‘The Question: Has natural hair become too politicised?’, TAR97 Feb 2018]. Something that is already natural does not need to be exaggerated as a new phenomenon. We have always had natural hair, we just chose to relax it and now is when we are discovering our roots. In my opinion, natural African hair does not have to be a movement or protest, we just need to embrace it calmly, for those who would like to return to natural. There is also no harm

Marini Naturals, Kenya

Kokil Shah, Kenya

Quiz Answers Thanks to everyone who took part in our end-of-year quiz in the Dec 2017Jan 2018 issue. Correct answers: 1 b) Nambia; 2 b) Thando Mgqolozana; 3 b) James Ibori; 4 a) Lupita Nyong’o; 5 a) An electrical cable; 6 50 (19 Jan-10 Mar) + 104 (7 May-19 Aug); 7 His wife and children were too addicted to the show; 8 b) Schistosomiasis; 9 c) $460; 10 c) Robert Mugabe; 11 a) Helen Zille; 12 b) $8,000; 13 Algeria, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana; 14 c) Burundi; 15 a) Orange juice; 16 a) Bell Pottinger; 17 Seven.

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ADVERTISERS’ INDEX BOLLORE TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS p 2; EMIRATES p 5; MCB GROUP p 7; OLAM p 9; ENI p 15; AFRICA CEO FORUM 2018 p 17; BEIJING REVIEW p 20-21; CHANNELS INCORPORATED LTD p 33; TAR SUBSCRIPTION p 43; TAR Debates p 44, 91; UBA p 49; CAMEROON TEA ESTATES p 52; LADOL p 55; SONA GROUP NIGERIA p 57; RACK CENTRE p 59; AFSIC p 59; ENERGYNET - AEF p 61; DASSAULT AVIATION p 67; LIEBHERR EXPORT AG p 77; CFAO JCB p 81; WOLF OIL - CHAMPION p 92 THE AFRICA REPORT

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The decisions on ‘global’ problems are still being made by an exclusive club of developed nations often serving their own interests. As the African Union strikes out for financial independence and self-detemination, we asked:

Can African leaders adopt a stronger voice on global issues?

Yes JOSEPH RWAGATARE Columnist, Rwanda

Today’s important global issues, such as trade, climate change, terrorism and migration, impact Africans the most. Africa is undergoing transformation that is increasingly giving its people and leaders power, confidence and a voice. In the past its countries were weak and open to arm-twisting and even blackmail because of political and economic fragmentation, corruption, and dependency on foreign financial support. To overcome this demands a unified voice on the issues and the muscle to back it. That’s what the African Union and its ongoing reforms provide: to make it more independent in funding its activities, to increase its domestic and global impact and to strengthen regional economic communities. The Continental Free Trade Area that will be signed in March 2018 in Kigali will reinforce regional economic communities such as the EAC, ECOWAS and SADC, provide a huge market to African goods, and give the continent a stronger hand in negotiating trade matters. Greater economic integration and opportunities within Africa should stem migration, which is linked to weak economies although it manifests as a security and humanitarian issue. To be heard you must be respected. Respect comes from doing right, being strong and possessing the ability to stand on your own. The good news is that this is already happening.

No SHEHU SANI Senator, Nigeria

It is difficult for African leaders to adopt a stronger voice on global issues for a number of reasons. First of all there are overwhelming socio-economic and political challenges on the domestic and continental front that inhibit their intervention or interest on global issues. Secondly, some African leaders are still subservient and take orders from their former colonial masters who wield strong influence on the global stage. Thirdly, no African State is a permanent member of the United Nations Secretary Council – a huge limitation if leaders are to have a stronger voice on world issues. Leaders across the continent still depend on aid and favours from wealthy nations and this mentality comes with dire consequences. Moreover, African leaders are not in a position to impose sanctions on countries, as powerful nations in Europe and North America do. The new generation of African leaders also lack the ideological depth of the first-generation leaders, which limits their ability to deliberate on vital issues. Lastly, those at the top might struggle to be heard in the global arena because they don’t show much interest in getting into the ring on issues that have no direct impact on their countries. Whereas the world wants to discuss the Syrian civil war and the North Korean nuclear threat, African leaders are more interested in discussing aid and economic assistance.

We need to develop the economic status of Africa first. [This] lies in the unification of the continent through mostly trade and industry, and the emancipation of the values of ‘ubuntu’. African leaders should participate in international affairs with one voice. A united voice portrays an organised lot. Prince S. Mahlangu From what we’ve seen in the past, they mostly only do so if the ‘global issue’ affects them individually, like pulling out of the ICC. We are yet to see a precedent where they do so on matters affecting the African masses. @IsaacOtidiAmuke Yes it can but not in its current structure of 54 disunited states.So the challenge is to reshape Africa at the macro level and improve coordination at the AU Commission. @Djbawlah If there is a will it needs to be shared across the continent. One lone wolf cannot effect change across matters that are important to so many. Generational changes to thinking are required. @McLean_SCC What have they done with the responsibilities given to them by us to deserve to have a say on global issues? Will they not spread corruption, oppression, complacency and poverty? @tpeeven

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SOUTH AFRICA

WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

The end of Zuma’s road

Premonitions perhaps? Zuma at the 2017 ANC conference

acob Zuma’s tenure as South Africa’s president ended with a whimper, not a bang. Unfazed by the boos, by the Supreme Court’s verdict that he failed to uphold the constitution, by the reinstatement of a raft of corruption charges and the rejection of his preferred successor, Jacob Zuma spent Valentine’s Day complaining that the African National Congress (ANC)’s calls for him to stand down in February were “unfair”, before finally resigning. “There’s nothing I’ve done wrong,” Zuma said.

EDUCATION TIDAL WAVE OF TEACHER NEEDS

Because he resigned before a vote of no-confidence Zuma’s cabinet does not have to be dissolved. Ramaphosa will therefore have to clean the slate himself. While Zuma still has many allies in the ANC, the government is going hard against those suspected of being involved in corrupt Zuma-linked activities to isolate his remaining supporters. The authorities arrested Ajay Gupta of the influential Gupta family and other high-profile names were set to follow, sources said. Atul Gupta’s attempt to flee the country

“You know I think

60), and now that countries like Ghana are aiming for free and universal secondary education there are fears that the same planning mistakes will be repeated.

by 2

SOURCE: PASEC 2014/UNESCO-IIPE

025 by 2

Teach ers in

Africa’s population is young and growing rapidly, so if countries want to take advantage of that demographic, they need to quickly hire and train teachers. Total recruitment necessary by 2020 To meet the demand for schooling, sub-Saharan 4 01 African countries will have to almost double the number of teachers they had in 2014 within the next 12 years. In many countries, the 17 13 9 5 1 expansion of universal primary Teachers required education led local in millions governments North Africa to hire unqualified Sub-Saharan Africa teachers (see page

was said to have been thwarted by the pilot, who refused to take off from Lanseria airport. As The Africa Report went to press, Zuma’s son Duduzane was still on the run. Whether and how Zuma would be held accountable for his misdeeds was a major topic in his discussions with Ramaphosa. Those close to Zuma say that he still has some cards to play. In February, when Zuma asked for more time to get his affairs in order, he hinted that he was willing to take a great number of others down with him, based on information he had gleaned as the ANC’s former intelligence chief. But power leached away from Zuma fast. Staunch allies – like finance minister Malusi Gigaba – advised him publicly to step down. Ramaphosa’s honeymoon has not yet started, and there are high expectations about his ability to deliver change (see page 40). So far, the markets are on his side: the rand strengthened with each step closer to Zuma’s downfall. But Ramaphosa’s recent ups and downs – his role in the Marikana massacre as well as in negotiations for a minimum wage – suggest that he may not have an easy ride. However, his reforming zeal and eye on how to stop the Economic Freedom Fighters from poaching voters on the left on areas such as land reform (see page 22) mean the ANC may be able to turn around its weakening performance at the polls in time for the next elections in 2019.

Novelist Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie said s that a French journalist’s question about whetther there are bookstores in Nigeria was out of orde er.

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0 03

BEN CURTIS/AP/SIPA

BRIEFING 11

PICTURE OF THE MONTH After boycotting the second round of the presidential vote last year, opposition leader Raila Odinga swore himself in as Kenya’s “people’s president” in February. His allies were absent, and the government is now in crackdown mode.

SECRECY TAKING ON THE TAX HAVENS

INVESTMENT ACTIVITY PLUMMETS IN 2017

27 80 9

95 62 Ghana

38 80

103 69 Botswana

The top secrecy jurisdictions in Africa 00

77 75 Seychelles

Liberia

Kenya

75 73 Tanzania

50 56 South Africa

Africa Rank

Secrecy Score

49 72

Global Rank

Mauritius

Tracking illicit financial flows is high on African and global agendas. This year’s Financial Secrecy Index shows that countries with reputations for being tax havens are not always the ones who engage in financial secrecy. Mauritius and Seychelles are high on the list, but Kenya tops it. Nairobi’s financial centre is small in global terms, but it is growing fast. THE AFRICA REPORT

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SOURCE: FINANCIAL SECURITY INDEX 2018

106 77 Gambia

Economic worries in two of the continent’s biggest economies – Nigeria and South Africa – led mergers and acqusitions to fall to their lowest levels since 2012 last year. Inbound deals dropped by almost 20% and outbound ones – where South African firms play the biggest role – fell by 44%. Low commodity prices have hurt activity, but big deals like Exxon’s $2.8bn for a stake in a Mozambican gas field in March 2017 show that the tides may already be turning.

Merger and acquisition deals in sub-Saharan Africa ($bn) 60

‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17

SPOTLIGHT

Jewel Howard Taylor Elected vice-president in December, the ex-wife of war criminal Charles Taylor is a rising star in Liberia’s politics. Clearly ambitious, she is content to play second fiddle to President Weah for now UNDER A LONG, white-lit corridor in Monrovia’s Capitol Building, dozens of people wait quietly for hours. The queue has grown these past few weeks, and the calibre of the person sitting in the office behind the wooden door explains it. Jewel Howard Taylor is not only one of the most powerful female politicians in Liberia, but she is also the new vice-president. While her new office is under construction a few metres from the Capitol

Building, she continues to work from the small bureau she has been using since she was elected senator in 2005. “I always speak the truth,” she says with a confident, straight gaze. A devout Christian, she has a big poster of Jesus hanging on the wall. A Bible is also within reach. Howard Taylor maintains that she never knew about her ex-husband Charles Taylor’s war crimes or the ruthless repression carried out during his presidency.

During her time as First Lady (from 1997-2003), Howard Taylor held a number of positions, including deputy governor of the National Bank of Liberia. This led to her inclusion on a list of close relatives of Taylor targeted by United Nations sanctions. Having divorced Taylor in 2006, she says “it’s in the past”. She is confident her ex-husband will have no influence on Liberian politics in the next six years. Nevertheless, she will not comment on whether she is in regular contact with him. Several members of her entourage claim Taylor and Howard Taylor often speak. She is no novice in the political arena. “My name has not made me. I’ve been in politics for 15 years and what I’ve achieved is because of who I am and what I’ve done,” she says. And though the name Taylor might be loathed by some, it is well loved by others. According to an adviser JEWEL’S CUT AND POLISH 17 January 1963 Born in Zorzor, Liberia 1997 Married Charles Taylor, later divorcing him in 2006 2005 Elected senator for Bong County, representing the National Patriotic Party

AHMED JALLANZO/EPA/MAXPPP

February 2012 Introduced a bill to make homosexuality a crime punishable by the death penalty 26 December 2017 Elected vicepresident on George Weah’s ticket

“Probably the most important thing is not necessarily the election but what happens after the election”

“Last year, I complained [...]. This year, I will not complain. I will take action”

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s President Joseph Kabila maintains his cagey posturing on holding elections and stepping down from power.

Tanzania’s President John Magufuli vows to clean up corruption in the judiciary and law enforcement agencies. THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING 13

The Gabonese striker pleased a packed Emirates Stadium crowd by scoring on his debut match with London’s Arsenal. He joined the Gunners, leaving the German team Dortmund, in late January.

MERERA GUDINA In Ethiopia, Professor Gudina, the leader of the Oromo Federalist Congress, was released from prison in a government amnesty in January. In December there was a military crackdown against protests in the Oromia region.

Equatorial Guinea’s President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo says stepping down is always hard to do. •

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A leaked US diplomatic cable cited by Africa Confidential suggested the Sierra Leone president’s foot-dragging over subsidies had caused the IMF to suspend support. The country goes to the polls on 7 March.

PIERRE-EMERICK AUBAMEYANG

“We are in full agreement that Yahya Jammeh must be protected ” THE AFRICA REPORT

ERNEST BAI KOROMA

MARKUS JOOSTE L’OSSERVATORE ROMANO/AP/SIPA; JEREMY GLYN/FINANCIAL MAIL/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES; CIA PAK/UN

RICK BAJORNAS/UN

Anna Sylvestre-Treiner in Monrovia for Jeune Afrique

LEILA ZERROUGUI The Algerian legal expert and diplomat has the heavy task of leading MONUSCO – the UN peacekeeping mission to the DRC – as violent clashes loom in the east while the country awaits an election.

ESKINDER DEBEBE/UN; RICHARD CALVER/SHUTTERS/SIPA; CHRIS STEIN/AFP

to President George Weah: “It’s not for nothing that she kept her married name.” For several months last year, the United States tried to dissuade Weah from nominating her as the vice-presidential candidate, “but we were gaining more from her than what she was costing us,” the adviser says. She has established a strong political reputation, one characterised by seriousness and hard work. And despite proposing controversial bills to criminalise homosexuality and make Liberia a Christian state – neither of which were adopted – she was an important figure in the Senate, having lost the election to become its president pro tempore by a single vote in 2012. That experience made her a cunning tactician. She has encouraged reconciliation and spoken against trying individuals for war crimes. Instead, her attention is fixed on urgent needs such as roads, jobs, access to water and electricity, among others priorities. She also gives her allies room to manoeuvre, especially Weah. “I don’t want to be at the forefront,” she says while singing Weah’s praises. “He’s an extremely intelligent man who is more than just a footballer.” In that respect, she says, “He is much bigger than Messi or Ronaldo!” Though opponents criticise the football star-turned-president’s lack of political experience, vicepresident Howard Taylor has no intention of becoming the brains behind the presidency. But those close to Weah already have their suspicions. “She’s an ambitious woman who has been dreaming of taking up the top job for several years,” says one of them. “She might have given it up this time, but who can tell if she will not be the main candidate next time?”

The poster boy of South African globetrotting capital, former Steinhoff boss Jooste, has now been reported to South Africa’s leading crime investigators, the Hawks, who will be keen to prove their mettle in the post-Zuma age.

MANUEL VICENTE With the new man at the helm in Angola, allies of the previous president are being reeled in from all sides, including the former boss of Angola’s state oil company, who is on trial for corruption in Portugal.

SAUDI ARABIA

$107bn

Amount Saudi Arabia netted in an anti-corruption campaign launched in November by Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman. An estimated 500 people were taken into custody then forced to hand over cash, real estate and stock to gain their freedom.

With Islamic State (IS) rebels largely defeated, the crisis in Syria has entered into a new phase that risks conflict between the United States and Turkey. Northern Syria is the battleground after Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan authorised an offensive in January against Kurdish troops that Washington had trained to fight IS. Kurdish troops control about 25% of Syria’s territory and Ankara is worried about Kurdish calls for independence in Syria, Iraq and at home. The US is keeping its troops in Syria, but their endgame against President Bashar al-Assad, who is backed by Teheran and Moscow, remains unclear.

FERDINAND OSTROP/AP/SIPA

GERMANY

Coalition of the sour

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is down but not out after her party agreed a last-minute coalition deal in early February. Merkel’s right-of-centre Christlich Demokratische Union took just 246 seats in the 709-seat legislature in September 2017’s polls, marking a low point in the party’s popularity. The cost of the February deal with Martin Schulz’s leftist Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) was the finance ministry and other cabinet posts. Neither party is too pleased about the terms, suggesting the coalition could be unstable, and the agreement could fall apart if SPD party members vote against it in late February. Historically, the popularity of the SPD has tanked after it participates in ‘grand coalitions’. A weak coalition could strengthen the hand of populist parties, like far-right Alternative für Deutschland, which took 94 Bundestag seats, previously having none, making it the third-largest force in the legislature. Merkel staying around could make things difficult for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, who has been struggling to get talks going about Brexit. 3

SYRIA

Fractured fighting

L-R: Horst Seehofer (CSU), Chancellor Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz, SPD

US/PALESTINE

“What

is there left to talk about now that Jerusalem and the refugees are off the table? ”

US/CHINA

Who wants a trade war? EVAN SCHNEIDER/UN

After President Donald Trump imposed new tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines, Chinese authorities launched a probe into the dumping of US sorghum in China’s animal feed market. The US’s trade deficit with China hit a record $375.2bn in 2017, and trade was a big plank of Trump’s 2017 election campaign. Commerce secretary Wilbur Ross says “strenuous effort is under way” to reduce US trade deficits. The risk is that tit-for-tat moves could quickly lead to a trade war.

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas says the US is no longer qualified to act as a peace broker after it recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and cut aid to Palestinian refugees.

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ASA BAAKO MUSIC FESTIVAL 2-6 March BUSUA & TAKORADI | GHANA Annual music festival. asabaako.com

AFRICA HEALTHCARE WEEK 5-7 March LONDON | UK Africa’s largest healthcare event in Europe. africahealthcareweek.com

INNOVATION SUMMIT AFRICA 6 March NAIROBI | KENYA The Economist’s Nairobi summit explores the digital transformation of the continent. events.economist.com

DHL eCOMMERCE MONEYAFRICA CONFEX 14-15 March CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA With two special platforms for SMEs and start-ups. ecommerce-africa.com

IOT FORUM AFRICA 14-15 March JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA Multi-industry two-day event. iotforumafrica.com

MINING INVESTMENT WEST AFRICA 15-16 March ACCRA | GHANA Incorporating Mining Tech and Women in Mining. mininginvestmentafrica.com

NORTH AFRICA PETROLEUM EXHIBITION & CONFERENCE 25-28 March

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE 23-24 March

ORAN | ALGERIA napec-dz.com

MASSACHUSETTS | US Harvard University’s annual conference with the theme ‘Our Time, Our Vision: Wielding Africa’s Potential for Sustainable Growth’. harvardadc.com

CAPE TOWN INTERNATIONAL JAZZ FESTIVAL 23-24 March CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA Largest jazz festival on the continent. capetownjazzfest.com

AFRICA ISLAMIC FINANCE FORUM 27-28 March LAGOS | NIGERIA africa-if.com

POWER & ELECTRICITY WORLD AFRICA 27-28 March JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA With nine co-located shows including The Solar Show and Clean Technology World. terrapinn.com

SIERRA LEONE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 7 March

LARRAYADIEU/AFRICA CEO FORUM/J.A

MOZAMBIQUE ASSEMBLY 12-13 March MAPUTO | MOZAMBIQUE energycouncil.com/events/

COMMONWEALTH AFRICA SUMMIT 12-14 March LONDON | UK commonwealthafrica.com

BAUMA CONEXPO AFRICA 13-16 March JOHANNESBURG | SOUTH AFRICA bcafrica.com

26-27 March ABIDJAN | CÔTE D’IVOIRE Organised by Jeune Afrique Media Group, Africa’s premier private-sector event returns to Abidjan, after a successful event in Geneva last year. Under the theme ‘African Champions: Powering Competitiveness’, more than 1,500 participants from over 60 countries, including several African heads of state, are expected at this sixth edition. The annual highlight, the Africa CEO Forum Awards, celebrates the best of African business. Two new awards will be launched this year: CSR Strategy of the Year and Most Promising Company of the Year, in addition to top prize, Africa CEO of the Year. theafricaceoforum.com THE AFRICA REPORT

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Next edition

Abidjan

26-27 MARCH 2018 Sofitel Abidjan Hotel Ivoire

Shaping the future of Africa

100

Speakers

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The largest international gathering for African CEOs, bankers and investors

Participants

700

CEOs

Countries represented

Registration

www.theafricaceoforum.com ORGANIZERS

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@africaceoforum #ACF2018

International media DIAMOND

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Ste ephen Chan

Professor of world politics, School of Oriental & African Studies, UK

Is making the right noises enough of a plan?

ere there a prize for making all the right noises, then in his first 100 days as president of Zimbabwe Emmerson Mnangagwa would surely have won it. Assiduously projecting a businesslike demeanour, he was anything but the crocodile of old. His performance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, carefully calibrated for the cameras, was masterly. But it would have been his private discussions with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Christine Lagarde at Davos that would have been critical to the future of the stricken Zimbabwean economy. In arrears to the World Bank and other international financial institutions – and with an estimated external debt of $7.2bn – no IMF rescue package will be possible until those arrears are paid. People who thought the Chinese would ride to the rescue to enable talks with the IMF were mistaken. The Chinese have long been concerned that there was no hand upon the Zimbabwean economic helm, and will need reassurances that Mnangagwa’s policies are more than words. They will not throw good money after bad – especially as Zimbabwean indigenisation laws bit hard on many of their investments. Whether Mnangagwa had the detailed fiscal scenarios and projections Lagarde would have wanted is a real question. Essentially, he is on a mission of high-level begging, as there are neither funds nor capacity in the Zimbabwean treasury or economic engine. In the last years of Mugabe, everything was to do with his health, his succession and his wife. He never understood economics and was not about to learn.

the crocodile has indeed reformed. But, even with a speeded-up timetable for those elections, the Zimbabwean economy needs real help right away. Will hesitation bring it to the brink of no return? Western diplomatic discourse has moved from ‘let’s wait and see how the elections go’ to ‘we are prepared to give him a hearing’, but scepticism about the president’s bona fides remains very real and very hard. But what are the alternatives to Mnangagwa? The opposition is split. The longtime leader of the

For the West, Mnangagwa’s dilemma is a major political concern. His reputation as a hard man and a key player in the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) ideology of militant nationalism has meant caution in re-engagement – notwithstanding huge relief Mugabe has gone. The elections of 2018 are seen as a real test of whether THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING 19

opposition, Morgan Tsvangirai, is seriously ill. In a real sense, early elections will give Mnangagwa the sense of being democratic while projecting the opposition’s inability to win. Indeed, if Tsvangirai dies or is forced to retire as leader, the shortened time frame can only work against the opposition. Having said that, if the economy freefalls without any interim stabilisation measures – which can only be externally financed – and Mnangagwa does poorly at the elections, what will be Zimbabwe’s fate with a weakened president? If the opposition wins, can it be united as a government? Can it do anything under weak and sickly leadership? And, in any case, have not Mnangagwa and ZANU-PF stolen any possible economic policy from under the opposition’s noses? It was not Tsvangirai at Davos. It was not oppositionist Joice Mujuru. And it was neither of them who met with South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa, also at Davos. What words did Ramaphosa speak into the ears of rich investors who might have asked him about Zimbabwe? If the running is all being made by Mnangagwa, and the opposition is invisible outside Zimbabwe, what about Zimbabwean civil society? #ThisFlag and the Apostolics have gone quiet. The students have restricted themselves to demands that the authenticity of Grace Mugabe’s doctorate be proven.

The larger church groups have likewise joined the ‘wait and see’ battalions, and everyone is still grateful that Mugabe is no longer president. If the government has no concrete plan for the economy – because there is no concrete base from which to revitalise the economy – then no one else has a plan either. The one certainty, and this does weigh upon the minds of Western ministers, is that the ZANU-PF high-command around Mnangagwa is now militarised in a way it never was before. With generals in senior cabinet positions and General (retired) Constantino Chiwenga as vice-president, the sense

The ZANU-PF high-command is now militarised in a way it never was before of this government departing with decorum and ease if defeated at the elections is far from palpable. The only way the Mnangagwa project can succeed is by a weak opposition losing the elections. Although that seems likely, will there be a militarised panic if the gap closes? Will recourse to rigging be brought to the fore again? If election observer groups bring information technology experts with them, will there be the risky recourse to ‘conditioning’ those parts of thevotingthatmaybebiometricallyconducted?There are enough possibilities for a securitised government to give way to panic and to modes of insurance. And, if the election is won fairly by Mnangagwa, will the West then re-engage? The West could get behind an IMF rescue package, and that in itself would be sufficient sign of confidence for investments to begin again. But the IMF will demand a further shrinking of the public sector – so that, in a country with shrunken formal employment, the possibility of such employment will shrink even further. The pain of rescue will be very great. The evidence of such pain will be greater and swifter than any uplift that comes about by foreign investment. Will the Chinese finally drop their reluctance to be the key rescuer? If they do, it will only be after they are sure the Zimbabweans have learnt a key lesson in not biting the hand that feeds them. The indigenisation of Chinese enterprises was taken in Beijing as huge ingratitude. And insofar as indigenisation, like so much of economic activity in Zimbabwe, has been to enrich a corrupt elite, the Chinese will demand a full-blown turn to financial transparency – as they did, with partial success, in Angola. In a way, much to the surprise of the Zimbabweans, it might be the Chinese who act most closely with the IMF. Britain has no money. The US under President Donald Trump is not interested. Europe, with the increasingly powerful voice of France's Emmanuel Macron, will have Zimbabwe far down its list. Zimbabwe’s future is out of its hands. Why else does a president beg in Davos? For Mnangagwa, the big problem might not be winning the 2018 election, but whether the economy will have recovered enough for him and ZANU-PF to win the 2023 elections.

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MixedOwnership Reform China encourages the inflow of foreign capital in SOE restructuring By Ni Yanshuo

engLiang,anengineerwithChina Shenhua Group, the country’s largest coal enterprise, became a worried man when he heard the news that his company was to merge with China Guodian Corp., another stateowned enterprise (SOE) specializing in electricity generation and investment, in August last year. “I was not sure what would happen after the two giants in their respective fields merge,” said Peng. Peng soon found that his anxiety was

unfounded. Everything went smoothly and for Peng, it was business as usual. Three months later, the new company, China Energy Investment Group Co. Ltd. with assets of 1.8 trillion yuan ($277.3 billion) and 330,000 staff members, was officially established. “The merging of the two groups will definitely help realize integrated development of coal and power sectors so as to increase the new enterprise’s overall profit-winning capacity and create a more reasonable industrial development

Opening doors

As the acronym suggests, SOE means enterprises that are totally owned or controlled by the state. But the latest round of reform is trying to broaden this ownership. With the deepening of SOE reform, experts believe that foreign capital will become integral to the process. China Tea was a company wholly owned by China COFCO, China’s largest SOE specializing in food processing, manufacturing and trade. In November 2016, it became one of the first nine central SOEs selected by the SASAC to conduct a pilot project of mixed-ownership and employee stock-option reform. During the process, the company introduced investments from multiple sectors. After the reform was completed in August 2017, the stock share of COFCO reduced from 100 percent to 40 percent with employees holding 15 percent of the stock, and the rest held by various investment companies, including 3 percent from Mitsui & Co. based in Japan. Accordingly, a board of directors www.chinafrica.cn

PHOTO: PANG XINGLEI

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (center) on an inspection visit to the Dalian Bingshan Group in June 2017

mode,” said Xiao Yaqing, Chairman of State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council. “It is a good example of SOE reform in China.” The reform has seen achievements. When U.S. President Donald Trump visited China in November 2017, China Energy Investment Group signed a memorandum of understanding with the government of West Virginia State to invest $83.7 billion in all aspects of the shale gas industrial chain in the coming 20 years. This is the largest investment project in the energy field between China and the United States, as well as being the first project of the new SOE. Since China adopted its reform and opening up policy in late 1978, reform on the country’s SOEs has been ongoing, and the process has seen more rapid development in recent years. During the past five years from 2012-17, SASAC has restructured 34 SOEs under the supervision and administration of the Central Government, making great progress in SOE reform, especially in terms of ownership.

with principals representing various investors was established. “Thanks to the mixed-ownership reform, I now can see a different SOE in terms of competitiveness and employees’ sense of responsibility. We have solved problems like redundant organs and low efficiency that had lingered on for decades,” said Zhao Shuanglian, Chairman of COFCO. The reform also led to improvement in the company’s market performance. In the first six months of 2017, China Tea saw its turnover increase by 28.1 percent year on year, much higher than the average 2.36-percent growth of other companies in the industry in 2016. Its profit also increased by 40.8 percent year on year during the same period. “China Tea can also provide valuable experience for other SOEs in their reforms,” said Zhao.

Foreign capital encouraged

Besides China Tea, other SOEs also introduced foreign capital into their reforms, such as China Petrochemical Corp., China’s largest oil refining and petrochemical enterprise, and CITIC Group, a Chinese state-owned investment company. “Encouraging foreign capital to participate in China’s SOE mixed-ownership reform, on the one hand, will become the major trend of how China utilizes foreign capital, as China has great potential for attracting foreign investment; on the other hand, foreign capital can also help optimize the structure and operation of Chinese SOEs and inject new impetus into them,” said Xiao. Actually, as China has opened up wider to the outside world in recent years, it has become easier for foreign capital to enter a growing number of sectors in China. For instance, in July 2017, the State Council removed 27 items from the negative list of foreign investment in free trade zones. In addition, the State Council also issued a series of regulations to ensure that foreign investors compete with their Chinese counterparts in an equal and fair environment. AccordingtotheNoticeontheMeasures of Promoting the Increase of Foreign Capital issued by the State Council in www.chinafrica.cn

August 2017, China will further cut the limitation to foreign capital access, formulate preferential financial and tax policies, improve the comprehensive investment environment of national-level development zones, facilitate the entry and exit of talents, and optimize the operation and business environment in the future. The efforts will encourage more foreign capitals to enter the country. “With breakthroughs made in China’s SOE reform, the country now has the conditions [that facilitate] introducing foreign capitals to SOEs,” said Li Jin, Chief Researcher with China Enterprise Research Institute, adding that the Government’s next move will be further promoting mixed-ownership reform at local SOEs. SOEs occupy a strategic position in China’s national economy.“Foreign capital holding shares of SOEs can benefit both [sides],” said Bai Ming, Deputy Director of International Market Research Institute of Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Ministry of Commerce. According to Bai, through mixed-ownership reform, foreign capital can have a larger market and earn bigger profits, especially in China where some SOEs occupy a monopoly position in certain sectors. It can also allow Chinese SOEs to enhance their influence on the international market through using advanced foreign technologies and overseas sales channels. “More importantly, an increasing number of Chinese SOEs

have started business overseas. Mixedownership cooperation can help them better explore international markets and be better localized,” said Zhang Yansheng, Secretary General of Academic Committee of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).

Future reform

Starting from November 2016 and March 2017, NDRC and SASAC launched two rounds of pilot projects of SOE mixedownership reform, with nine SOEs in the first round and 10 in the second, covering areas such as electricity distribution and sales, power equipment, high-speed railways, airline logistics, telecommunications and finance. According to Peng Huagang, Deputy Secretary General of SASAC of the State Council, a total of 31 SOEs will launch the third round of ownership reform early this year, including 10 SOEs under the Central Government and 21 SOEs under local governments. “The first two rounds of SOE reform have made steady progress in promoting economic development, while the stateowned economy has set up a sound platform for further development of private economy,” said Zhang Chunxiao, an official from SASAC, adding that the third round of reform will involve more areas, including SOEs that provide public service. * Comments to niyanshuo@chinafrica.cn

Land How long must we be

patient? Black South Africans are tired of waiting to get their land back. In 1994, hopes soared that the government would start to return land to the landless. The lack of action has fuelled demands for a more radical approach that the new ANC leadership cannot ignore By Crystal Orderson in Greyton, Western Cape

ust after the newly elected top six leaders of the governing Afr ican National Congress (ANC) had held a bad-tempered meeting with outgoing President Jacob Zuma about the terms for his retirement, a very different, and perhaps more significant, meeting was organised for the

following day, 5 February. This time it was just two bulls in the kraal: Zuma and King Goodwill Zwelithini. The venue was the royal palace at Ulundi, in the north of KwaZulu-Natal. Some had speculated that the Zulu king was trying to persuade Zuma to make a dignified exit without causing political havoc. Instead, says a palace insider, most of the meeting was about land. King Zwelithini called Zuma

to the private meeting to reiterate his opposition to the ANC’s plans for land reform. A staunch Zulu traditionalist, Zuma was expected to defend the interests of his monarch. As one of the richest South Africans,ZwelithinichairstheIngonyama Trust that manages about 2.8m hectares, just under a third of KwaZulu-Natal. A week earlier, new ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa had joined Zwelithini

to commemorate his ancestor King Cetshwayo’s victory over the British at the Battle of Isandlwana. “I warned Mr Ramaphosa that as the governing party they must not make the mistake of taking away the land of the Zulus because all hell will break loose,” said Zwelithini, with history ringing in everyone’s ears. ANC leaders are taking that threat seriously. The Ingonyama Trust was set

CONRAD BORNMAN/FOTO24/GALLO IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

Too many South Africans are waiting for access to land, despite promises made after the end of apartheid

24 FRONTLINE | L AND: HOW LONG MUST WE BE PATIENT?

Facts and figures

SOURCE: THE AFRICA REPORT

$22bn

Primary agricultural production in South Africa in 2016, about R263.2bn, that has helped create jobs, especially in the countryside.

AT H

/R A

PP O

R T/ G AL L O I M

S/ AGE

GROWING PAINS

Nevertheless, radical ideas are on the agenda. In March, the ANC is due to hold anationalconferenceonlandtofindways to speed up the redistribution and also boost farm production and create jobs. Much of the debate will draw on the 2017 report by the High-Level Panel on the Assessment of Key Legislation and the Acceleration of Fundamental Change, chaired by former president

up in 1994 ostensibly to prevent a war of secession over control of the Zulu lands between the government in Pretoria and the Zulu king. Traditionalists fear that deal could start to unravel under a new land tenure system. Certainly, the role of South Africa’s seven royal families as guardians of swathes of farmland on behalf of their 18 million subjects is under attack. That is why Ramaphosa has met all the monarchs this year: to find a way for the ANC’s newplansforlandreformtoworkwithout breaking down traditional authority. Yet some kind of compromise with traditional rulers over land rights is anathema to the ANC’s urbanised modernising forces. They want sweeping land reform to tackle historical dispossession and boost economic empowerment through a new class of smallholder farmers. Some activists also argue there would be a democratic dividend if traditional rulers were stripped of their power over land. Last December, the ANC national conference passed a resolution supporting the expropriation of land without compensation. It is a radical step forward, but chairman of the ANC’s economic transformation committee Enoch Godongwana and his allies insisted on caveats. Such expropriation should not threaten food security, nor damage growth and employment in the rest of the economy.

“Expropriation

[...] should be among the mechanisms available ” Cyril Ramaphosa, president of the African National Congress

Kgalema Motlanthe. It offers a highly critical view of land policies and their implementation. “Land redistribution has proceeded at a slow and uneven pace over the past 22 years,” the report states. The panel also found that budgets for land redistribution have fallen sharply over the past decade. Ruth Hall, a land expert at the University of Western Cape and one of the researchers who briefed Motlanthe’s team, says there is no need to change the constitution to redistribute land. Instead, the report “found that the biggest challenge standing in the way of land reform is not the property rights clause but the implementation of land reform policies [and] procedures, and extended, entrenched corruption in the system.” Activists want the government

75%

White farmers own almost threequarters of South Africa’s arable land, down from the 85% they controlled w when apartheid ended in 1994.

Number of traditional leaders in South Africa, who still act as guardians of swathes of farmland.

to clean up existing legislation, ensure land reform is transparent, increase the department of rural development and land reform’s budget and fill the large number of vacancies there. A lack of accountability in the system means public money is being wasted and new farmers are being denied the state support they need. The Motlanthe report criticises the government for “entering into costly ventures to acquire high-value land and conclude deals with strategic partners to run commercial farms and associated processing facilities in the namesoffarmworkerswhosebeneficiary trusts are invisible to public scrutiny.” LAND TO THE TILLER

Hall wants the ANC to be bolder and start expropriations that make economic sense: “The time to pay out farmers full market price is over. Government entities expropriate land all the time. It’s nothing new. It should happen.” Managed effectively, this would concentrate minds and speed up land reform, she argues. Almost everyone agrees that change is urgent. Inequities in South Africa’s land holdings are among the most extreme in the world, worse than Zimbabwe’s before Robert Mugabe’s government launched the fast-track land resettlement programme in 2000. According to an audit by the Agri SA lobby, white farmers own almost three-quarters of South Africa’s agricultural land. Two decades ago, white farmers controlled about 85% of the land. Agriculture creates jobs, especially in the countryside, and in 2016 primary agricultural production was worth R263.2bn ($22bn). Under the current weak economic conditions, the ANC led by Ramaphosa is reluctant to do anything to undermine farm productivity. But serious land reform is a top political imperative, whoever runs the ANC.

2.8m

Hectares of land managed by the Ingonyama Trust, representing about 30% of the land in the KwaZuluNatal province.

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FRONTLINE 25

WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

Much farming in South Africa is high-end horticulture, viniculture and capital-intensive wheat growing, alongside huge animal rearing lots. And while ‘Big Agri’ can look after itself, smallholders often slip through the gaps

It is also treacherous terrain. On the one hand are many fearful and avaricious white farmers resisting even gradual change, and on the other activist groups such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Black First Land First calling for mass expropriations. Over the past two years, the radical EFF has won kudos with its vocal opposition to Zuma’s presidency and its set-piece confrontations in parliament. It may have to work harder to score points against Ramaphosa, outside his ties with whiteowned conglomerates. Outbidding the ANC on land reform could help the EFF. For activists such as Sizani Ngubane, a memberoftheRuralWomen’sMovement, land reform should not only improve living standards in the countryside but change the balance of power. Ngubane works in KwaZulu-Natal and her organisation has been campaigning against horrific rights abuses there: “Indigenous people are treated like slaves on farms”. THE AFRICA REPORT

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But she also wants land reform to serve as a counterweight to the power of traditional leaders, most of whom refuse to allocate land to women in their own right. In many cases, the land is registered under the name of a male relative. Some traditional leaders are also abusing their position as managers of land on behalf of their communities by failing to consult them before striking deals with mining companies, says Ngubane. FROM PROMISE TO PRAGMATISM

However, she says she does not expect that the ANC government will suddenly get radical on land policy: “I find it difficult to believe that they are going to achieve their goal of expropriation without compensation in the near future. This could be just one of their campaigning strategies to win the elections in 2019.” Professor Ben Cousins, another land specialist at the University of the Western Cape, argues that expropriation without

compensation could face various legal hurdles: “It’s going to be difficult to implement as a legally binding measure. What criteria do you use? Where do you stand under the law?” There seems to be at least two views on the expropriation policy within the ANC, says Cousins: “There is a view that is opposed to it and they would like to see some compensation […]. Another faction wants to push it through not as a practical issue but as a way to out the EFF in its place.” Addressing thousands of supporters, newly elected ANC president Ramaphosa said in East London in January that the country will launch “an agricultural revolution”. He was talking about great boosts to production and food security. But what does this mean in practice and for the dreams of the landless millions? Rampahosa’s talk was exciting, but there is a deafening silence from the department of rural development and land reform, which is meant to manage the redistribution programme. It is coming under growing fire. “Those waiting for land will be disappointed […]. People who are tasked to deliver land, like the department, are in disarray,” according to Cousins. “There is no reason why land reform should be so slow. It’s an incompetent minister and people who run it.” The Rural Women’s Movement’s Ngubane adds: “Government is just not committed to land reform. They

26 FRONTLINE | L AND: HOW LONG MUST WE BE PATIENT?

have bought farms and up till now have not transferred the land into the names of the communities.” Since the vote for the expropriation policy at the conference, officials have released more details about the process. ANC secretary general and outgoing Free State premier Ace Magashule says the party is finalising the modalities of land expropriation and other “mechanisms to affectlandreformandredistribution”.The newpolicy,headds,wouldhavetoensure

“food security, greater agricultural output and attract investment in the sector”. At the party’s special lekgotla (meeting) in January, Jessie Duarte, the ANC’s deputy secretary general, said the ANC governmentwillimpose“strictconditions for how the beneficiaries use the land for farming and to make food security a priority. The government will ensure support for emerging and current farmers.” South Africa is a regional giant in farming and food processing, so there are big

The apple of his eye ON A FARM GROWING luscious apples and pears in the majestic Overberg region in Western Cape, Errol April sits on his tractor talking to workers about irrigation techniques. There is nothing particularly remarkable about that except that April is a former fighter with Umkhonto we Sizwe, the armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC), and he got into fruit farming by accident. He registered for a department of land affairs database and applied for a farming project: “I was hoping to farm with pigs, a few chickens and some livestock.” But two years later, the department told him that he had been allocated a fruit farm. In 2014, April moved to the farm and started working 12-14 hour days. “Our strategic partner withdrew his support because he did not want to work with terrorists with no farming experience, and we were left with debts of millions of rand.” April’s farm is a test case that proves land reform can work. “We came with no capital, and we had to learn on the job.” Now he has almost 50 workers at the business. His farm, Amanzi, exports thousands of apples and pears each week C.O. to companies such as Tesco, Waitrose and Marks & Spencer in Britain.

strategic reasons to make the policy work as effectively as possibly while trying to correct historic and current injustices. Commercial farmers, who like to cite the crash in production triggered by land reform in Zimbabwe, are nervous about disruptions. Michelle Mokone, an economist for the Grain SA lobby group, tells The Africa Report that government policies must ensure the sustainability of the grain sector. “[The problem] is the uncertainty of how the policy will be implemented and the implications of it. [The agricultural sector] is a big contributor to the economy, and we cannot end up like Zimbabwe.” WHITE FRIGHT

Other lobby groups are also unsure about the future of the sector. Commercial farmers are likely to redouble their lobbying efforts as the government goes ahead with its expropriation policy, especially if any of them are targeted. AgriSA says “populist” policies could weaken agricultural output and the ability to attract new investment. “Policy certainty is number one for investment, and this is the ultimate uncertainty,” says Agri SA’s legal and policy adviser Annelize Crosby. The government, she argues, should not “pretend it is going to solve all the

A Albie Sachs

Former judge, Constitutional Court, South Africa

Propositions for constitutional land reform

st proposition

The constitution as a whole should be a transformational document. The first shared understanding was that, looked at as a whole, the constitution should be a document that, in a principled and comprehensive way, recognised the need to correct the systemic and continuing injustices of the past. This meant that it should not entrench any specific economic model nor be used as a mechanism for freezing the status quo. Rather, the constitution should leave it to the democratically elected parliament to find the best way to achieve substantive equality for the formerly oppressed people in their daily lives.

nd proposition

Victims of forced removals after 1913 should get their land back or alternative restitution. The second proposition was that victims of forced removals in the 20th century should be provided with mechanisms to get their land back, or alternative redress. Eventually, we decided that the Natives Land Act of 1913 could serve as a significant strategic marker. It had been the signal moment when the historic dispossession of the African people had been formally consolidated on a nationwide basis in terms of express racist legal title. After 1913, 3.5 million people had been forcibly removed from THE AFRICA REPORT

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GULSHAN KHAN/AFP

Radical land reform is a political mobilisation tool for groups like Black First Land First

problems if they are going to tamper with the property clause – it’s actually dangerous for everyone.” Jaco Schoeman, an Eastern Cape farmer and chairman of the lobby Afrikanerbond, says his organisation is deeply disappointed in Ramaphosa. Before the expropriation policy, Afrikanerbond thought it was on the brink of “finding a solution within the farming sector, but all the noises are creating anxiety and fear.” Schoeman points to a lack of imagination. He

argues that the big landowners have a responsibility to share, and many have land they are not using for farming which could be parcelled out for the landless. Perhaps the biggest problem with the government’s policies, good or bad, is that the administrative system is in many cases breaking down. Several thousand restitution claims lodged before 1998 await resolution and the solutions to 20,000 resolved claims have not been implemented. New claims lodged since 2014alreadynumberaround150,000and

their homes and land. The workshops decided that the constitution should provide that these victims of forced removals should benefit from a clear and direct right to restitution, either in terms of getting their land back or receiving some other equivalent form of redress.

rd proposition

Extensive programmes of land reform to deal with colonial dispossession before 1913. We decided that a different strategy for redistribution would be required in relation to the historic dispossession that had taken place in the 19th century and before. The third proposition was that there should be constitutionally directed mechanisms to facilitate extensive programmes of land reform to deal with this dispossession. The extent and consequences of the dispossession over the centuries was not in dispute, nor was the need for remedial action. Our preoccupation was with how to develop a strategy that would redress the history of land usurpation in South Africa in a just, rigorous, lawbased, implementable and sustainable way. THE AFRICA REPORT

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could rise to 400,000. These managerial weaknesses, says the Rural Women’s Movement’s Ngubane, are hitting communities meant to be the beneficiaries of government land purchases. The University of Western Cape’s Hall says about 70% of land claims in provinces such as Limpopo are still outstanding. At the current rate of progress, it would take about 141 years to resolve the backlog of land claims. “The ANC has placed itself in a corner. They must first deal with the outstanding land claims,” says Hall. “The Motlanthe panel suggests that land claims should be transparent and get local councils at the district level to be part of the process.” For the land specialist Cousins, building a much stronger cohort of small-scale farmers will meet targets for equity and boost production: “The key beneficiaries should rather be the 200,000 marketoriented, black smallholder farmers who produce crops and livestock for sale.” With stronger demands coming from the ANC, commercial farmers in South Africa insist – somewhat desperately – that land reform is not a zero-sum

It would have to be driven more by broad political and constitutional considerations and less by formal legal factors. We came to realise that to attempt to base land reform on who precisely had been dispossessed from what piece of land at what precise moment would be both difficult to accomplish and dangerous in consequence. Far from being a barrier to radical land redistribution, the constitution in fact requires and facilitates extensive and progressive programmes of land reform. It provides for constitutional and judicial control to ensure equitable access and prevent abuse. It contains no willing-seller, willing-buyer principle, the application of which could make expropriation unaffordable. Furthermore, there is nothing in the constitution that restricts land reform to rural areas only. Vigorous, creative and sustainable public law interventions could play a major role in overcoming the spatial apartheid divisions that continue to bedevil our cities. Not only do they perpetuate social injustice; they are wasteful and inefficient and prevent the full, potential, human, cultural and economic richness of our urban fabric from being achieved.

28 FRONTLINE

game.TheodeJager,president of the World Farmers’ Organisation and a farmer in Limpopo, says the ANC’s 2012 conference in Mangaung had a workable solution to the land question: “[It] calls on a partnership between government and the sector. There are about 100 such projects where the rural poor are trained. It’s a partnership with big commercial farmers, but the state has never invested in this 50/50 model.” SOUL EROSION

Cattle Economic freedom, one cow at a time A scheme to loan hardy, indigenous Ngoni cattle to farmers has brought prosperity and dignity to rural dwellers. The only catch: you already need land

ommyMohajane,themastermind behind an innovative scheme to uplift rural black South Africans, is an urban dweller who has never owned or even herded a cow. But for him, South Africa’s indigenous Nguni cattle are the key to bringing development to rural communities. Under the scheme, which is backed by the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and part funded by provincial governments, specially constituted trusts loan Nguni cattle for up to five years to black farmers with enough land to keep them. In the 13 years the scheme has been going, some 7,027 beneficiaries have received 27,826 cattle. Nguni cattle are disliked by the meat industry for their light frames and low meat-to-bone ratios, but are supremely adapted to the region’s increasingly hostile climate, coping with drought and all manner of ticks and diseases. Ngunis are also highly fertile, far more so than most imported cattle breeds in South Africa. The provincial programmes typically

require beneficiaries to return the same number of cattle five years later, in the expectation that enough calves will have been born by then to leave behind the makings of a herd. Mohajane, now in his sixties, was born in the Johannesburg township of Alexandra but left for exile in his teens, spending the 1970s in African National Congress camps in Tanzania. He won

Main breeding challenges faced (% of farmers faced with the challenge)

Shortage of breeding bulls

Lack of breeding camps

SOURCE: MAPIYE (2017)

The land question in South Africa goes way beyond finding the most efficient forms of economic organisation, according to Hall. “Land represents identity to black people,” but it hasnotbeenapoliticalpriorityforthe ANC sofar.“[It] willbeveryimportant for the ANC to demonstrate that the party is serious about land reform.” Big farming is giving Ramaphosa the benefit of the doubt at the moment. “He understands business and is a farmer and a key player in the National Development Plan, which we support,” says Agri SA’s Crosby. At least the threat of expropriation is triggering commercial farmers and agribusiness to innovate: “There are proposals from us and the banking sector [to] create [a] positive policy environment so that people are willing to invest,” says Crosby. “The world is running out of food – we can be the food basket for Africa.” In few other areas of public policy are the polarities between idealism and materialism more evident. On one hand, there is the spiritual connection between a people and their land, and ways to strengthen a community by the restitution of what has been stolen. On the other, there are plans for multibillion-dollar investments that could launch South Africa into the international premier league of food producers. Somehow, Ramaphosa will have to navigate that landscape. And a message from Black First Land First campaigner Zanele Lwana might help: “My family is landless. I grew up in Khayelitsha in Cape Town. I trained as a teacher. I would like a piece of land to farm. We do not endorse the expropriation of land for private use. Land must be owned communally. Give everyone a piece of land to farm.”

Lack of breeding management knowledge

Diseases and poor health conditions Shortage of water THE AFRICA REPORT

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L AND: HOW LONG MUST WE BE PATIENT? | FRONTLINE 29

a UN scholarship to study in Britain, completing a doctorate at the London School of Economics. Returning to South Africa after 1994, he joined the IDC. The IDC liked the scheme for its potential to develop the cattle breed, but for Mohajane it was about human upliftment: “Rural communities are always last in the queue when it comes to development,” he says. “The grandparents are sitting there with the grandchildren. The parents are away in urban areas. Nine tenths don’t send a penny.” The Nguni scheme, has, albeit on a small scale, restored dignity, Mohajane says. But there is a catch: “You have to have land. You can’t keep cattle in the kitchen. And you must have water. We wanted this scheme to work after all!” According to the programme, applicants must own or have access to 600ha for 24 cattle. This makes the scheme controversial in the context of an increasingly ill-tempered debate on land reform, as the poorest of the rural poor cannot benefit from it. NO HOOFS IN THE TILL

The commercial success rate among South Africa’s land reform projects is painfully low. Mohajane says one of the main reasons is an absence of effective accountability structures. For the Ngoni programme he addressed thisby creating tripartite boards of trustees to select the beneficiaries. They are composed of two people each from the IDC, the provincial government and a participating THE AFRICA REPORT

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university. Until 2015, when he reached retirement age, Mohajane also sat on the provincial boards. He continues to keep a watchful eye on proceedings. The IDC has contributed R59.6m ($4.9m) to the Nguni programme nationwide. It has been most successful in North West and Limpopo provinces, where 3,500 farmers – just under half the national total – have received around 6,000 cattle. Many of these farmers have already returned cattle to the provincial trusts and run profitable businesses with their herds, Mohajane says: “One family who received cattle in Limpopo was able to pay the university registration fees of their son after selling one cow.” The programme launched in KwazuluNatal (KZN) during the premiership of ZweliMkhize,buttheIDCpulledoutafter Mkhize left office in 2013 due to concern about the impact of political turmoil on the board. Some of the beneficiaries of the KZN Nguni programme are politically connected town dwellers, like Moses Mchunu*, a magistrate who has received more than 30 Ngunis but only sees them when he travels from his home in Vryheid to visit them on Sundays. Other beneficiaries are farmers, and their Ngunis are changing their lives. The Mbheles own a farm of hilly,

LI N K E DI N

JEFF J MITCHELL/GETTY/AFP

The Ngoni are fertile, making it possible to pay back the same number of cattle and form a herd

“Ngunis are

the future. They are grassfed. They are indigenous ” Tommy Mohajane, developer of the Ngoni cattle loan programme with the IDC.

open grassland near the small town of Dundee. Godfrey Mbhele says: “I used to work as a fruit quality controller down in the Western Cape, but I quit that to help my father farm. He is an old man now. We received 30 Ngunis from the province, and soon we will have to give them back half that number.” ONE BULL IS PLENTY

Mbhele says the programme came at the right time, just as he and his family were transitioning from subsistence to commercial farming. But he has concerns. To keep his herd pure, he needs good fencing to separate them from the rest of his herd and the wandering cattle of his neighbours. Fencing is expensive and often stolen, and Mbhele hints that once he has paid back the cattle to the province he might not go the stud route, instead breeding his Ngunis with beefier cattle and selling the progeny to feedlots. Bongi Madlala* is another beneficiary in KZN, where he farms near Utrecht. Madlala grew up on the farm where his father laboured for a white man, but he moved to Johannesburg and found work as a mechanic. The white man sold the land to Madlala’s father, and a couple of years after that, Madlala says, “I was in the VW garage when I got the call. My father had died and I had inherited the farm.” Thewhitefarmer’ssonrentedaportion of the farm. A fan of Ngunis, it was he who prodded Madlala to apply for the cattle. Madlala received 30 cattle. “According to the rules, I am not supposed to buy and sell for five years, but I soon saw that that will not work. Naturally, around half my calves are bulls. You cannot have too many bulls in one herd. It causes havoc, so I sold them. Not to the auctions, where the authorities would find out, but to the abattoirs.” Madlala’s also says: “Politicians come to us black farmers and tell us one thing by day, and they tell the white farmers another thing by night. It is hard to know what to believe. What I trust is my cattle.” Despite Mohajane’s continuing passion for his project, since he retired the IDC has done little to promote it. Mohajane is scouting for new sources of funding to keep the Nguni programme going and to extend it, both geographically into Kenya and Tanzania, and vertically into beneficiation projects, such as abattoirs and tanneries. Gregory Mthembu-Salter in KZN

*Some names have been changed.

KENYA

The unheard hea

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While politicians play out high-level chess moves Nairobi’s poor struggle to heal the wounds of 2007 and 2017 election violence. Amid police crackdowns, a stifled media and a judiciary who ignores them, where will the rage find its outlet?

anger

By Nanjala Nyabola in Nairobi

ANDREW RENNEISEN/GETTY /AFP

Crowds pack Uhuru Park on 30 January for opposition leader Raila Odinga’s mock presidential swearing-in

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urrounded by thousands of cheering supporters, opposition leader Raila Odinga took an oath on 30 January to become the “people’s president”. The mock swearing-in ceremony immediately drew parodies on social media, with people posting photos of their own oath-taking. But the laughter died down quickly in the Mathare slum, one of the most ethnically diverse places in the country. Wedged between the 82 Air Force Base and the prestigious Muthaiga Golf and Country Club, Mathare has been the site of some of the worst violence in Kenya’s history, and, more recently, the most egregious cases of police brutality in the 2017 elections. In February of this year, street demonstrations erupted in the slum after police arrested TJ Kajwang, a member of parliament for the Ruaraka constituency in which Mathare sits, for his role in Odinga’s ceremony. Kajwang had held the Bible, and police arrested him under a colonial-era law designed to punish Africans for pledging allegiance to entities other than the British monarch. After detaining several opposition figures, confiscating their passports and even deporting Miguna Miguna, an opposition lawyer, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government went after the media. Some of the country’s biggest television broadcasters – NTV, KTN and Citizen TV – were taken off the air for attempting to broadcast the oath. Together, the stations represent 70% of the country’s TV broadcasting. In spite of an order by the High Court to resume transmission, some airwaves were silent for nine days. “In the space of just one week, a Kenyan government that proclaims itself a rule-of-law government has repeatedly defied nearly a dozen court orders in an alarming descent toward authoritarianism,” wrote Larry Madowo,

32 POLITICS

AS M U UTE K O YA /R E

one of Kenya’s most recognisable on-air journalists, in an article that appeared in The Washington Post. In an eerie warning, a fake death notice was published in a Nairobi daily for Jimi Wanjigi, the main financier of the National Super Alliance (Nasa) opposition coalition. In another worrying move, on 30 January the government banned Nasa’s National Resistance Movement, the civil disobedience arm of the coalition, deeming it an “organised criminal group”. Critics now say that Kenya should no longer be hailed as a beacon of democracy and free speech in a troubled region. “Uhuru is taking a stab at the heart of democracy that we’ve fought and died for over the last 20 years,” says Michael Chege, a professor of politics at the University of Nairobi. After a year of high-stakes political drama, which included a Supreme Court annulment of the 8 August election and the opposition’s boycotting of the repeat poll, there is an ongoing political impasse. Adding to the opposition’s concerns, some of Kenyatta’s advisers are singing the praises of the leadership styles of Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn. “It seems part of a long-term strategy to help economic development without politics – which is naive in the extreme because the more they take this hard line, the more belligerent the public gets,” says Chege. Meanwhile, there are signs that Nasa is fractured beyond repair. The absence of Nasa co-principals at Odinga’s mock swearing-in ceremony signaled the end of the coalition for many observers. “Nasa is gone, gone, gone,” says Chege. “What’s left now is Raila Odinga, who is starting to realise the danger of being a lone ranger. He’s maintaining the fiction, knowing very well there’s nothing there.”

“Are they on

the side of the constitution or of those who violate it? ” Former chief justice Willy Mutunga accuses the judiciary of failing to hold politicians to account over rights abuses.

professionalism and dedication to duty”. While Nasa has accused the police of using excessive force in dealing with opposition supporters, the coalition has failed to turn that into a core pillar of its political message. But that does not mean it has not tried. On 24 November, Nasa launched a fundraiser for the families of those killed during the election period and published a full-page advertisement in a local daily with pictures of people who died in the clashes. Since then nothing has been said about the fundraising, which has been obscured by the high-level chess game. Meanwhile, residents of Mathare remain unseen and unheard by national politicians. And because Runda Evergreen

Karura Forest Muthaiga

SOURCE: GOOGLEMAPS

Some of Odinga’s most ardent supporters live in Nairobi’s slums, and many are no strangers to confrontations with the police, which have been a hallmark of Kenya’s elections ever since multiparty democracy was established in 1991. But instead of speaking out against the evidence of police brutality, Kenyatta praised the conduct of the police during the election period, commending their “high degree of

Nairobi A2

Kenya Pipeline Estate

Kariobangui

Huruma

City Park Estate

Ngara

ad Kiambu Ro

PRAISE WHERE NONE IS DUE

Garden Estate Ridgeways

Mathare Pangani

Kariokor

Eastleigh

1 km

Pioneer Estate Uhuru

politics in Kenya is increasingly difficult to separate from violence, the election’s impact continues to take its toll. The experience of Mathare during the 2017 election cycle hints at the origins and challenges of Kenya’s current national political crisis. Given its easy access to the city’s central business district, Mathare attracts many new arrivals from rural areas. And residents of the densely packed cluster of iron-sheet houses are mostly young and very politically active. BecauseMathareisroutinelyneglected by the government, it is historically a reservoir of votes for the opposition. But the ruling Jubilee Party claims a sizeable constituency there too. Cramming so many people with varied backgrounds into such a small place in a country where politics and ethnicity are intertwined inevitably heightens electoral tensions. NINETEEN DEATHS

Despite its political currency, Mathare’s struggle with cycles of election violence remains at the periphery of political discourse. “Folks who discuss politics do it from the point of privilege,” says Abdullahi Boru, Amnesty International’s Kenya researcher. “People in informal settlements are problems to be solved and not individuals or groups with agency. Even when they are engaged, the relationship is purely extractive.” This is symbolic of the wider phenomenon where politicians can focus their energy on undermining their opponents rather than facing voters and acting on their concerns. The ongoing clash between Kenyatta and Odinga is crowding out important conversations on the real effects of the election cycle. These include a significant number of civilian deaths and the systematic sidelining of important institutions, such as the judiciary, which was the victim of a campaign of intimidation after the Supreme Court annulled the 8 August election. Arguably the most significant issue in Mathare arising from the election is the extrajudicial executions of young people. Nineteen young men and women were killed in Mathare by the police between 8 August and 29 October 2017 according to the Mathare Social Justice Centre. Many killings were recorded on smartphones, and the videos and photos went viral. Yet in the three weeks between the August vote and its annulment, local media declined to give substantive coverage to the THE AFRICA REPORT

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BEN CURTIS/AP/SIPA

violence. Only when the social media cacophony became too loud to ignore did they finally pay attention. Victor Okoth was one such case. On 8 August, while much of the country quietly awaited the first trickle of election results, residents of Mathare hardly slept. The police had branded the settlement a “hotspot” for electoral violence and maintained a visible, intimidating presence. All polling stations in the country were to be closed by 5pm and results released immediately, but because results

were slow to come in, some frustrated youth in Mathare protested. The police responded with gunshots and teargas that rattled the mabati (corrugated iron) shacks throughout the night. The following day, Okoth was in his house with his wife, Faith Mueni, and their young daughter. Sensing the significance of the moment, Okoth headed out to the main street. “He was near the protests, but he wasn’t in them,” says Mueni before she becomes too emotional to continue the interview.

Okoth, like the majority of the victims of police violence during the election, was unarmed and killed by a police bullet while trying to get away. He was one of the estimated 100 people killed by the police between 8 August and 29 October. As the high-level political drama intensified, police responded to any incidents of unrest in the country with alarming brutality – firing tear gas into homes and shooting live rounds into crowds. Door-to-door searches in places like Mathare were typical.

A file unopened: one woman’s triple ordeal NANCY WANJIRU LIVES with the memory of repeated trauma. On 3 January 2008, neighbours dragged her husband out of their house, a small corrugated iron shack typical of the Mathare settlement. In the dirt paths that weave between the houses, they set upon him with machetes and then dragged him down to the putrid, garbage-filled river that splits the valley in half, leaving him for dead. Wanjiru fled to the nearby air force base, barefoot and terrified. Thankfully, she found people willing to help her retrieve her husband’s body from the river. Miraculously, he was still alive. Along with some local youth, Wanjiru pulled him out and carried him to a Red Cross ambulance that took him to Kenyatta National Hospital. Wanjiru was sent home, still barefoot and dazed. While shuffling back, she received a call. “Don’t come back,” her sister urged over the line. “They’ve destroyed your house and carried everything away. There’s nothing left.” She spent the night in an impromptu camp.

The next day, Wanjiru – still barefoot and wearing the dress reeking with the river’s stench – started back towards the hospital to see her husband. On the way, she encountered a police vehicle, driven by a local officer. He offered her a lift, but instead of driving her to the city, he drove her to a nearby police station. “He said that he felt bad for what had happened to me,” Wanjiru says. “So he offered to take me to his house and lend me one of his wife’s dresses, which didn’t alarm me because I knew both [him] and his wife.” But the officer’s wife was not at home. And instead of offering Wanjiru a dress, the officer brewed himself a cup of tea. He then locked the door from the inside, cocked his gun at Wanjiru, grabbed her by the neck and violently raped her. Several days later, Wanjiru’s son, Kevu, confronted the policeman who had raped his mother. He was handcuffed and thrown in a cell. In the morning he was found dead, shot nine times in the face. Wanjiru is still seeking justice. N.N. THE AFRICA REPORT

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THOMAS MUKOYA/REUTERS

POLITICS 35

“[Okoth] didn’t die immediately,” that most of the 111 killings in Nairobi in says Collins Obondo, his older brother. this period were in informal settlements like Mathare, and that the police killed “So they wrapped him in a blanket, put him in the back of a police truck and many of victims while responding to the clashes with alarming brutality. In one drove him around for some time before they took him to the [nearby hospital]. incident, Human Rights Watch reported that police surrounded the settlement, That’s where he died”. Like many Kenyans who protested shot 34 young men at point-blank range and forced residents to collect the bodduring the elections, Collins says that ies. Because of Mathare’s small size, he has not received any support or residents heard every bullet. help from the government, and he feels disillusioned and disconnected. For locals like Nancy Wanjiru, trauFormer chief justice Willy Mutunga ma is a part of everyday life (see box). Institutions like the judiciary have failed says the government’s heavy-handed resp ons e to protests amounts to a serious threat In Nairobi’s slums, layers of to Kenya’s democracy. “The generational trauma are stacked things that happen to public figures like Miguna Miguna on top of each other get lots of airtime,” he says, referring to the lawyer who was deported to hold politicians accountable for their role in human rights abuses. So far in for his role in Odinga’s oath. “But no one really talks about what happens to or2018, the executive has ignored at least three court orders pertaining to the dinary Kenyans in places like Mathare.” election, including the exiling of former ROUNDED UP AND SHOT gubernatorial candidate Miguna. Layers of generational trauma are “The judiciary is at a crossroads,” says stacked on top of each other and paired former chief justice Mutunga. “They will with a lack of faith in institutions. In have to decide if they are on the side of 2008, Mathare dominated headlines the people or on the side of the regime. Are they on the side of the constitution with violent ethnic attacks triggered by or on the side of those who violate it?” the uncertain December 2007 election. The Waki Commission, convened to This question was foretold by the investigate post-election violence, found government’s repeated inability to give THE AFRICA REPORT

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Above left: The Mathare River that runs through Nairobi’s densest slum is an open sewer Above right: A woman howls in horror at the death of a protester

closure to survivors of electoral violence. Once again history is in danger of repeating itself. Kenya’s failure to address the 2007 post-election crisis lingers on today in bitter memories and unanswered pleas. “I have submitted evidence and documents, even to the Independent Policing Oversight Authority (IPOA),” says Wanjiru. “But no one has come down here to help me.” The consequences of Kenya’s election cycles keep playing out in places like Mathare, and on the minds and bodies of people like Wanjiru and Okoth. They are also playing out on institutions that are supposed to be staunchly independent due to the widely praised 2010 constitution, which enshrined human rights in law in an attempt to move on from the 2008 violence. The lessons from experiences like Wanjiru’s are clear and urgent – unless Kenya deals directly with the injustices that come with troubled elections, the disillusionment will be compounded until eventually voters lose faith in the political process altogether. Additional reporting by Mark Anderson in Nairobi

AFRICAN UNION

Kagame takes the reins

The arrival of Rwanda’s strongman as the chair of the African Union’s assembly has raised hopes that long-overdue institutional and financial reforms to the bloc can finally happen

nder the gaze of dozens of African headsofstate,Rwanda’sPresident Paul Kagame strode up to the main podium of the Nelson Mandela Plenary Hall in the African Union (AU)’s headquarters in Addis Ababa. After shaking hands with the body’s most senior officials, Kagame settled into his first speech as chairman of the AU’s assembly. “Thank you for your double trust,” he told leaders including South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma, Nigeria’s Muhammadu Buhari and Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta, who had gathered on 29 January for the AU summit. “First as the leader of the reform process, and now as the leader of our union.” Kagame is trying to sell his shopping list of reforms, which he says would make the AU a powerful institution. This is no small task. Since its inception in 2002, the AU has been widely seen as an organisation with little to

show for its efforts. Worse still, the bloc is heavily dependent on foreign donors. In 2012, member states footed the bill for just 3% of the AU budget, but that rose to 14% in 2017. Kagame’s solution for the AU’s problems is to trim the fat and get member states to pay for more purposeful activities. In the year leading up to his appointment, Kagame headed a team of experts tasked with recommending institutional reforms. He suggested that the AU should dramatically limit its focus to “political affairs, peace and security, economic integration, and Africa’s global representation and voice”. He argues that ifthe focus ofthe AU is narrowed,it will be moreeffectiveandcheapertorun.Hesays that areas like education, domestic health issuesandscienceandtechnologyshould be cut back, while trade and industry projectsthatdonothaveacontinent-wide focus should be scrapped.

The bloc’s focus on peace and security will remain (see interview page 38). There is an understanding between the AU and the United Nations (UN) that if African countries can fund 25% of peacekeeping operations on the continent, the UN will pay the remaining 75%. IMPORT LEVY

Finance is also high on the agenda for the continental body. Donald Kaberuka, the former head of the African Development Bank, has led a team that has suggested policies that could help the bloc to meet its target of paying for its own budget by 2020. Kaberuka recommends that every member state adopt a 0.2% levy on most imports to fund the AU’s operations. “We have made [the 0.2% levy on imports] a requirement for all member states to ensure the organisation’s survival, which is currently at stake,” the chairman of the AU Commission, THE AFRICA REPORT

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Obstacles to Kagame’s plans for the AU

At the AU summit on 29 January President Paul Kagame outlined his vision for the continental bloc

EGYPT, WHICH IS AMBIVALENT about the continental body, will take over the leadership next year. A spat over the 2013 coup that overthrew Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi – for which Egypt was suspended – still hangs over Cairo’s engagement with its African peers. And not every African country wants a strong AU insisting that member states obey certain principles.

COUNTRIES INCLUDING SOUTH AFRICA and Nigeria are worried that the proposed AU financing mechanism violates the rules of the World Trade Organisation. Other governments have said that their constitutions do not allow for taxes to participate in international bodies.

EFE/EPA/MAXPPP

3 Moussa Faki Mahamat, told The Africa Report in November. Twenty-onememberstateshavesigned uptoimposethelevyandpaytheproceeds to the AU, according to Kagame. “There are more who are showing interest and [they] just want to understand the best way to implement the 0.2% levy on eligible imports,” he told reporters. “Now, more Africans are getting involved [in the reforms], more regions are represented. Wehaveacommitteeoffinanceministers,” he said, referring to a committee of 10 finance ministers that was set up in 2016 to oversee financial reforms of the AU. But unless the continent’s biggest economies – Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa – sign up for the levy, financing for the bloc will be severely limited. “At the moment, 60% of the AU budget comes from the five biggest economies,” says Elissa Jobson, the International Crisis Group (ICG)’s THE AFRICA REPORT

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AT THE JULY 2017 AU SUMMIT in Addis Ababa, AU Commission chair Moussa Faki Mahamat complained that most of the decisions that the body takes are never implemented. National legislatures would also have to make new laws to implement the planned 0.2% levy on imports, and that could be complicated and time-consuming.

expressing disapproval of the reforms. ‘A majority of the member states have not been eager to implement the decision […] [which] is in direct conflict with constitutional provisions and national legislations of some member states, as well as global and regional trade obligations, such as those relating to the World Trade Organisation,’ the letter said. Mushikiwabo adds: “Egypt is a bit hesitant of the 0.2% levy but we’ve sent the teams there at least twice, and we will continue to talk to them.” Some countries are eager to sign up. In his first remarks to the body, Angola’s President João Lourenço, whose country has the sixth-largest economy on the continent, said he wanted to “reiterate the need to allocate adequate means” to the AU, suggesting that Angola would commit to the 0.2% levy. “WE WAITED TOO LONG”

Kagame will need to engage in shuttle diplomacy and visit heads of state at homeinhisquesttounlocktheirfinancial commitments. In his maiden speech as chairmanoftheassembly,Kagameissued a stern warning to African leaders. “We are running out of time, and we must act now to save Africa from permanent deprivation,” he said. “The growth trajectory that transformed Asia is not necessarily any longer a viable option for Africa, simplybecause we waited too long to act.” Instead of chasing the same manufacturing boom that catapulted many Asian countries into middle-income status in the second half of the twentieth century, Kagame urged African leaders to adopt policies that would band their economies together. This, he said, would increase trade and make African markets more attractive for foreign investors. Kagame wants to show African leaders that they will get a bang for their buck.

adviser on AU relations. “So that means that even if you’ve got the other 50 countries on board, you still haven’t met even 50% of the budget.” Louise Mushikiwabo, Rwanda’s foreign minister and a member of the AU’s reform advisory team, is optimistic that the big five will support the measurestoimprovetheAU. Unless the continent’s biggest “Nigeria is on board with economies sign up for the the reform in general and levy, financing will be limited the self-paying,” she tells The Africa Report. “The other In January 2017, Kagame told the AU [bigfivecountries]arenotsayingthatthey assembly: “The Assembly has adopted won’t pay. They are, for a number of reamore than 1,500 resolutions, yet there is sons, slow and they’re asking questions.” However, there are signs of strong no easy way to determine how many of resistance to the levy, particularly from those have actually been implemented. Egypt and South Africa. South Africa’s By not following up to ensure that our decisions are implemented, we are President Jacob Zuma, in his capacity as secretary general of the Southern African effectively saying that they don’t matter.” It could be that many governments Development Community,sent astrongdo not want a strong organisation that ly worded letter to the AU Commission

38 POLITICS

will tell them how to run elections and how to be more democratic, says Liesl Louw-Vaudran, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies. “Egypt, for example, is one of the countries that is against the reformspreciselyforthatreason,” shesays. But that inertia is showing signs of changing. One highlight of this year’s AU summit was an agreement between 23 African countries to launch a single market for air transport that will enable airspace to be shared without the imposition of fees. Such a deal, which ultimately aims for all the continent’s countries to agree, has been in the works since 1999. More importantly, during January’s summit, a protocol was adopted towards creatinganAfricaneconomiccommunity that could be used to establish free trade and movement of people in the long run. The Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) is a central pillar of Kagame’s vision for the continent’s future. The pact aims to “create a single continental market for goods and services,

with free movement of business persons and investments,” according to the AU. The aim is also to establish a continent-wide customs union. An extraordinary summit is scheduled for 21 March in Kigali, where African heads of state are due to sign the agreement to establish the free trade zone. A MAN WHO GETS THINGS DONE

Kagame’s ministerial cabinet members insist that his track record at home makes him the ideal leader to spearhead the AU reforms. Rwandan trade minister Jean de Dieu Uwihanganye trumpets the country’s impressive road network as evidence that Kagame can get things done. “We know he’s a man with many targets. We’ve seen it in our country because we work with him,” Uwihanganye tells The Africa Report. Foreign minister Mushikiwabo says: “I know him as my president and I know he pursues development and the wellbeing of his own citizens relentlessly […]. I can see

the energy he puts into these reforms: the letters he writes to his colleagues, the phone calls, the consultations, the envoys he sends.” In the corridors of Addis Ababa, some delegates are confident that Kagame is the right man for the job. “He’s seen as a man who can get things done, more so than any other chairperson,” says one diplomat. But others are wary of Kagame’s reputation as an unrelenting strongman with little regard for the convictions of his peers. South African politicians are particularly sceptical. Pretoria has a rocky relationship with Kigali because of the assassination of Rwandan dissident Patrick Karegeya, a former intelligence chief, in an upmarket hotel in Johannesburg in 2013. Kagame will have to act fast to pass his reform agenda. The AU has elected Egypt to take over as chair of the AU assembly next year. Egypt has a temperamental relationship with the AU after Cairo was briefly suspended in 2013, following

Francisco Madeira Preparing the Somalis to take over

ILYAS AHMED/PLANET PIX/ZUMA-REA

Head of the African Union Mission in Somalia

Money and militants will help to determine whether the AU troops in Somalia can leave as planned in 2020

he institutional reforms of the African Union (AU) seek to boost spending on peace and security operations. But money will not solve all the problems. In Somalia, where the AU is embroiled in its most complicated and expensive peacekeeping mission, good news has been in short supply for much of the past year.

A t r u ck b o mb b l a s t i n Mogadishu on 14 October 2017 killed more than 500 people in the deadliest militant attack in the country’s history. Two weeks later, at least 23 more died in a bombing and gun attack on a Mogadishu hotel. On the sidelines of the AU summit in January, Francisco

Madeira, the head of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) told The Africa Report that the future is looking brighter. “Despite all these difficulties, economic life in Somalia – especially in Mogadishu – is taking place, and booming,” he said. “And there is, despite all these things, optimism in the population that life is possible. People [from the] diaspora are coming back and investing in Somalia at this moment.”

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Egypt’s President al-Sisi has a beef with the AU after it condemned his military coup of 2013

APAIMAGES/SIPA

the “overthrow” of former president Mohamed Morsi. Neither the UN, the European Union nor the United States publicly condemned Morsi’s ousting, making the AU the only bloc to speak out about the coup that brought President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to power. “Kagame’s got a year to move forward on the reforms because in 2019 Egypt will take over the chair of the AU assembly and it’s not clear how strong their commitment is to this process, especially on the financial side,” says the ICG’s Jobson. As the January summit came to a close, Kagame remained optimistic that he would be able to push reforms through. “If you look at the level of organisation we are beginning to achieve with the AU Commission, the understanding of the leaders of Africa in driving the reforms, we are moving well,” he said. “But we also understand that it will take time, there will be resistance from within and from outside.” Mark Anderson in Addis Ababa

But in spite of the setbacks, Madeira said AMISOM’s planned withdrawal – scheduled tentatively to be concluded in 2020 – remains on course. The first phase, which involved the drawdown of 1,000 troops and the deployment of 500 police officers to train and mentor Somalia’s national police force, was carried out “successfully” by the end of 2017, he said. The next step is to agree on a plan for the transfer of responsibilities from AMISOM to the Somali authorities. Madeira explained that this transition plan should be finalised by March. “This is not just about AMISOM leaving,” he added. “It is about preparing the Somalis to take over: empowering the Somalis, training the Somalis and giving them barracks and all the things that are required for an army to do its work properly in a responsible manner.” Much hinges on the credibility of the transition plan. Over the past two years AMISOM has struggled to secure funding and convince donors that the mission THE AFRICA REPORT

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represents value for money and, critically, is time-limited. In January 2016, the European Union (EU), the mission’s biggest donor, placed a cap on the amount it would provide for peacekeeper stipends and has yet to commit to further funding beyond October this year. “The funding problem is central,” Madeira admits. He adds that the EU’s 2016 decision, which briefly placed the future of the

“It’s not about withdrawing from Somalia. It’s about defeating Al-Shabaab” mission in jeopardy, was based on a “misunderstanding”. “There was a moment when partners thought that AMISOM was not undertaking the robust operations it used to undertake before. But we were successful in showing them that is not the case. We have shown them clearly that if they don’t support AMISOM, materially and financially, the possibility of further degradation

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to Al-Shabaab will be a bit remote.” Meanwhile, a team of special envoys is responsible for lobbying donors for additional resources. Asked how he plans to justify extra support when the continent is grappling with myriad other crises, Madeira said that Somalia is “the most volatile” country and so needs “much closer attention”. “We are the biggest peaceenforcing African mission,” Madeira says. “And we cannot just leave the situation to its own fate. We are so close to the war-torn Gulf that it won’t be very difficult for the Islamic State, ousted from Iraq and Syria, to just jump into Yemen and from there into Somalia.” AMISOM’s target to fully withdraw by 2020 will not be met without sufficient funds for the transition process. Nor can it happen until Somalia meets the “prerequisites” necessary to take full control of its own security. “It’s not about [withdrawing from Somalia],” he says. “It’s about defeating Al-Shabaab.” Interview by Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa

40 POLITICS

William Gumede

Associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand; and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times

Rebuilding trust is Ramaphosa’s next struggle

n the steps of Cape Town City Hall on 11 February to celebrate the 28th anniversary of the release of Nelson Mandela from prison in Paarl, African National Congress (ANC) president Cyril Ramaphosa promised “a new beginning” for the party and the country under his watch. But Ramaphosa will be in the state presidency for less than a year before the 2019 national elections, and this means he will have to choose carefully the priorities that will deliver maximum impact over a short period. There are some critical immediate steps Ramaphosa will have to take to kick-start such a new beginning and deliver a real a break from the corruption, public service failures and incompetence of Jacob Zuma’s era. The first will be to get a new cabinet team: fresh ideas, energy and confidence are critical. This may not be so straightforward, however. Support for Ramaphosa and the Zuma camp are about evenly split, so for the sake of unity Ramaphosa will be under pressure to include members of the Zuma faction in his cabinet. At a minimum, Ramaphosa will have to take control of the economic, justice, security and intelligence, infrastructure, mining and energy clusters of the cabinet. It is not only the ministers in charge that should be replaced, but also the executive management. As he makes new appointments, Ramaphosa should bring talents from the wider ANC and nonANC communities – for example, experienced cadres such as former finance ministers Pravin Gordhan and Nhlanhla Nene, and former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas. Zuma has blocked investigations into his own corruption and that of his allies by controlling the crime, intelligence, prosecuting and revenue services. Zuma loyalists in these crucial agencies have also tripped up critics of the President, conscientious employees and whistleblowers. This means that Ramaphosa will have to bring honest managers to run these agencies from top to middle management.

The South African Revenue Service has been particularly gutted under Zuma. Ramaphosa may have to appoint a big-hitter such as Nene to run the agency in order to restore public confidence. Ramaphosawillhavetobeseenactivelydealingwith widespread corruption that erodes state efficiency, crushes investor and public confidence, and depresses the economy. Although prosecuting Zuma for grand corruption, incompetence and abuse of his power is an obvious pillar of the anti-corruption fight, there are a number of Zuma’s powerful cabinet, ANC national

First priorities: new cabinet, take control of key ministries, then seek justice executive committee, government and business allies who are deeply implicated in wrongdoing. Of them, the Gupta family are just the most publicly talkedabout individuals linked to corruption. Ramaphosa will also have to bring down a couple of untouchable ANC and business figures to show the public his anti-corruption fight will not only focus on the small-time criminals. He should seriously THE AFRICA REPORT

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and public confidence. Companies have hoarded savings or invested abroad rather than using it locally to create bricks-and-mortar businesses. This means he will have to take up the work that former finance minister Gordhan initiated before he was fired by Zuma last year, in building a partnership for investment, growth and job-creation between government, business and civil society. Ramaphosa has already created a platform through his initiative last year when he united business and labour around the adoption of a minimum wage.

consider establishing a truth and reconciliation-like commission to tackle pervasive corruption in the public and private sectors. Ramaphosa will also need a big-bang plan to improve execution of key government programmes, projects and public services. One way to do this is setting up a government-wide task force to monitor delivery bottlenecks in priority programmes, infrastructure projects and public services that are critical to lift growth, create jobs and boost development. Ramaphosa will also have to clean up the governance, corruption and inefficiencies in the country’s money-guzzling state-owned enterprises (SOEs), especially the large, growth-critical ones such as state energy utility Eskom, logistics utility Transnet, arms manufacturer Denel and oil company PetroSA. The procurement chains of these SOEs are particular sites for corruption, wastage and patronage. This will mean firing Zuma-aligned allies on boards and executives, cancelling contracts with their companies and bringing in new fresh blood. It is crucial that Ramaphosa focuses on boosting investor goodwill. Zuma’s wayward leadership, mismanagement and corruption have eroded business THE AFRICA REPORT

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Ramaphosa will also have to review the controversial third version of the mining charter – steered by mineral resources minister Mosebenzi Zwane, a Zuma loyalist. The charter sets the black economic empowerment priorities for the mining sector and is now the subject of a court battle. Ramaphosa will have to call a land summit to bring all stakeholders to map out a policy that looks at all three forms of landholdings: state-owned land, communal land under the trusteeship of traditional authorities, and commercial land (see page 22). What is crucial is for the government to use state-owned land better and to parcel out communal land that is mostly controlled by traditional leaders by giving it to individual households, to provide the poor with assets. He will also have to deal with the dramatic decline in public education in black communities – and this will bring him valuable, mass credibility. He will have to organise a summit bringing together all stakeholders, from parents and teachers to communities and students to map out a plan to boost state schooling.

Ramaphosa will have to fix education – and this will give him mass credibility Ramaphosa needs a couple of big symbolic gestures: such as agreeing that all new cars for members of parliament and cabinet ministers would cost, say, less than R400,000 ($33,000); insisting that ministers’ convoys consist of only one vehicle; and ensuring that big government junkets, such as conferences, will take place in ordinary community halls or on government premises. Finally, it may not be sexy, but Ramaphosa will have to make a big part of his presidential focus just getting the state to do the things it is expected to do, getting current projects and programmes on track. The equivalent of a programme of fixing broken windows in a bad neighbourhood, it is more necessary and will be more effective than coming up with new, big-bang policies, strategies and projects.

Team South Africa scams Putin

peaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in late January, new African National Congress (ANC) president Cyril Ramaphosa poured cold water on the notion that South Africa would embark on a programme to build costly new Russian nuclear reactors. Back in September 2014 the government signed a nuclear power cooperation deal that appeared to pave the way for the construction of the new reactors by Russia’s Rosatom at an estimated cost of R1trn ($84bn). Ramaphosa told Davos that South Africa had a power surplus and did not need the plants, and that, anyway, Eskom, the power utility, did not have the funds needed to build them. Ramaphosa’s words were a fresh blow to the hopes of the Putin government that its lucrative South African nuclear build will ever proceed. The proposed deal has always enjoyed the strong support of President Jacob Zuma and his now-dwindling band of acolytes, who notably include energy – and former intelligence – minister David Mahlobo. Judging by the modus operandi of the Zuma faction in other instances, its wanting Russia to build the power stations was presumably paid for in cash. Zuma had tried to pursue the Russian nuclear deal at all costs, with its attendant promise of juicy tenders for contracts. He was largely stymied by two small, brainy and determined non-governmental organisations (NGOs): Earthlife Africa and the Southern African Faith Communities’ Environment Institute. In late 2016, the government awarded Empire Technology, a company owned by Shantan Reddy, the son of businessman Vivian Reddy and a close of ally of Zuma, a R170m ($14.2m) contract for the nuclear build ‘management system’. Several dubious, nuclear-related contracts were agreed with other well connected businesses. But then the NGOs took the government to court, saying that the law required that such a large programme had to come before parliament for approval and be preceded by a full public consultation. The Western Cape High Court ruled in favour of the NGOs in April 2017. This was

a victory for the NGOs, the public purse and the independence of the judiciary. In October 2017, only a few days after a high-level Russian delegation was reported to have met with Zuma, he appointed Mahlobo as energy minister. Mahlobo, who has long-standing ties with Russia, immediately ordered the ministry to finalise the integrated energy resource plan, four months ahead of schedule. He also went on air to insist that energy was less an economic than a national security issue. Zuma played his For Putin, part too, saying during a memorial the odds address for former ANC president Oliver Tambo in November 2017 are growing that those who did not support longer South Africa’s nuclear agenda were “backing Western agenthat his das”. Zuma added that “we were administration trained by the Soviet Union. They gave us weapons. We fought and will ever we were liberated. One day […] I see a return will share more, but not today.” Ramaphosa stating the obvious on its in Davos by saying there was ‘investment’ neither money nor need for the nuclear programme has caused Mahlobo to pause, perhaps waiting to see whether he should reverse position and curry favour with Ramaphosa or join a nascent pro-Zuma pushback led by ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule. The latter seems the more likely option. For Putin, the odds are growing longer that his administration will ever see a return on its ‘investment’. If so, then team South Africa – Zuma, civil society, the law, the judiciary and now Ramaphosa – will together have effectively scammed Putin of however much has been handed over so far. Not many countries achieve this, and team South Africa, arguably, deserves credit for having managed to do so. The problem is that, if money has indeed changed hands, only the Zuma faction has received any of it so far. It is surely only a matter of time before South Africa’s feisty civil society demands that Zuma and his acolytes not only pay back the money but also share the proceeds of the collective team shakedown. We live in interesting times.

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Nigeria Shooting The CEO (no pun intended)

Lights, camera, FLORIAN PLAUCHEUR/AFP

action

The opening credits are rolling on Nigeria’s promised epic: ‘Beyond Oil Dependency’, an uplifting tale of agro-processing plants, tech innovation, manufacturing investment and a multibillion-dollar entertainment industry – starring Yemi Osinbajo and Okechukwu Enelamah By Patrick Smith in Lagos

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hen members of the government’s technocratic wing – vice-president Yemi Osinbajo and trade and industry minister Okechukwu Enelamah – descended on Ogun State on 8 February to open a couple of factories, they had another important task in mind: to send signals to the voters and the markets. They were doing so at a time of jitters about the oil-fired economy’s prospects as the country moves painfully out of recession. Depending who you talk to,

46 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

the economy is set to grow between 1.7% and 5% over the next two years. Neither figure makes a serious cut in unemployment likely. In the third quarter of 2017, the share of unemployed and under-employed in the workforce increased to 40% from 37.2% last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. For the 18-35 age group the rate of unemployment and under-employment was 52.65%. So Osinbajo’s message to the voters – national elections are less than a year away – was that the government understands the challenge and is doing something about it. Like a true technocrat, Osinbajo took his audience on a guided tour of the multitude of government financing and training initiatives to encouragecompaniestohiremoreworkers. On coming to power in June 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari pushed his belief in national self-reliance: by boosting production of rice, wheat, sugar, tomatoes and a host of other commodities, the country could break its parlous dependence on crude-oil exports. That production boom is happening now. How much by design of government policy and how much born out of desperation from the chronic foreign-exchange shortages is another question. POLICY LABS: THE NEW BIG THING

The two factories visited, one making chocolate drinks and the other biscuits, showed the realities up close. Most of the jobs on offer in those industries are for farmers, not high-school leavers from the cities. “I am told this factory was built at a cost of N4.1bn ($11.3m),” said

Osinbajo at the drinks factory opening ceremony. “And it will create 150 direct jobs in addition to local sourcing of raw materials from Nestlé’s network of over 30,000 farmers.” The next stop was the Beloxxi biscuit factory, now one of the largest in the country, with plans to double production to 80,000tn per year. Its $80m expansion planwasfinancedbyBobGeldof’s8Miles investment company and African Capital Alliance, the private-equity company that Enelamah founded in 1997. Inside this factory, the job numbers are also modest: rising to 6,000 from present levels of 3,700 when the new plant is up and running. The real difference will be made by the 71 local suppliers of raw materials. Beloxxi and Nestlé, according to industry minister Enelamah, are companies that “have turned what potentially could have been a drawback into an advantage. Most of the inputs for what Nestlé produces in Nigeria, they get from here. They’ve managed to understand the market […] from farm to fork as they call it.” Beloxxi owes its success partly to a ban on imported biscuits. It built its manufacturing operations to depend almost wholly on local commodities. Nowtheproblembecomesoneof scale. At the factories in Ogun State, Osinbajo elaborated on the newly launched policy laboratories aimed at accelerating project implementation. An idea borrowed from Malaysia, “the laboratories will bring together all private and public stakeholders to achieve the specific policy or project objectives of our economic plan,” said Osinbajo. “We are focusing on three specific areas: agriculture and transport;

powerandgassupply;andmanufacturing and processing.” Intensely ambitious, Osinbajo wants these labs to generate $24bn of investment and 15 million jobs over the next three years. Most of the money will come from private companies. The incentive is that Osinbajo and his team will assemble all the government decision-makers on a particular project – everything from land rights and access roads to power supplies – bringing them into the same room as the project managers and financiers to agree a plan of action.

agriculture

technology

BETTER-TARGETED FERTILISER SUBSIDIES and efforts to help de-risk lending to vital cogs in the agribusiness machine have attracted large investors into Nigeria’s agricultural landscape. The players are making big bets. Olam, for example, is spending $150m across Kwara and Kaduna states to set up animal feed mils. Aliko Dangote is planning nearly $4.6bn in sugar and dairy projects. While there is still a paucity of processing equipment, rice mills are popping up across the landscape – even if there are concerns they lack enough raw product to run the mills at optimum capacity. And while many chafe at the Buhari administration’s decision to levy stiffer tariffs on agricultural imports, Nigeria’s biggest oil palm producers are booming: in mid-2017, Presco said revenue jumped to N12.8bn ($35.5m) from N7.5bn.

FROM ITS EARLY DAYS as a humble incubator for new tech talent to the creation of African ‘unicorns’ – companies valued at more than $1bn – Lagos has been instrumental in catapulting unknown start-ups such as Andela and Paystack into the global tech stratosphere. Interswitch, a Nigerian payments company, is hoping to supplant Visa and Mastercard. Silicon Valley’s success sits on the tripod of venture capital, top universities and entrepreneurs. Yaba – the high-tech district of Lagos – has the latter two, but finance is more complicated. While there is plenty of seed capital at the lower stage and lots of private-equity funds at the upper stages, in the middle is a financing desert. “Every day, promising companies are struggling because they lack funding,” says Seni Sulyman, Andela’s country director for Nigeria.

NIGERIA | COUNTRY FOCUS 47

For Cheta Nwanze, head of research at SBM Intelligence in Lagos, the diversification question is more about government revenue than the wider economy. “Over 80% of government revenue comes from the oil sector […] so the government has got to rebuild the non-oil tax collection system,” he says.

That could help end the logjam of stalled projects. According to a development consultant who formerly advised the Senate, hundreds if not thousands of projects are blocked by bureaucratic obstruction. “Under the previous government, a rogue official in the attorney general’s department was able to block a highly viable processing project on specious legal grounds for three years. In fact, the company simply wouldn’t pay himthe commissionhewas demanding.” About seven years ago, a special committee was set up under former finance

Oil has been a blessing and a curse to Nigeria since 1972: changing that has proved sticky

minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to develop policy in reaction to a global oil price crash. Some of that work is now playing out on the ground, according to finance minister Kemi Adeosun. “We have been able to balance our budget [with an oil price] at $45-46 a barrel and we’ve got to learn to live comfortably at that level,” she told the Nigerian Economic Outlook conference in January, which made ‘Beyond Oil’ its main theme.

With non-oil taxes at around 8% of gross domestic product, almost a third of the level in Ghana, the Nigerian government has embarked on a revenue collection blitz. A new scheme, the Voluntary Assets and Income Declaration Scheme, allows late payers to submit all monies owed between 2011-2016 in return for a waiver on interest and to avoid prosecution. Nwanze says this is the start of a longterm effort to boost tax collection, using the national identity card system and pulling more individuals and companies out of the informal economy. To an extent, it is back to the future. “Oil overtook taxation as a source of revenues in 1972 and – apart from a brief period when oil revenues crashed in 2016 – government revenues have been very dependent on oil,” says Nwanze. Lagos, the only state in the 36-state federation to finance its budget mainly from local tax revenue, is leading the way. Many smaller states are looking at new sales and property taxes to finance civil service salaries and local services. Lagos State hosts about half the country’s industrial operations, while neighbouring Ogun State hosts 25%. But with that level of economic concentration comes the responsibility

media

manufacturing

WHEN NIGERIA’S CHIEF STATISTICIAN – the robust st Yemi Kale – rebased the economy’s gross domestic product figures in 2013, he discovered that Nigeria’s ‘Nollywood’ film industry was worth 1.4% of national output – some $7.2bn. Largely thriving outside government control, the media sector has been a heavy exporter: Kenyans and Congolese all dance to the Naija beat, while Nollywood films are watched across the continent. Meanwhile, new production companies touting reality TV shows such as The Voice are making money selling content into surrounding markets. Streaming company iROKOtv showed the value in the sector when it struck a $19m deal with Canal+ in 2016 to sell dubbed Nigerian films in francophone Africa. PwC consultants claim Nigeria’s entertainment and media sector will be the world’s fastest-growing for the next five years.

POLICY SUPPORT for Nigeria’s moribund factories is well under way. Abuja’s trade and industry ministry is working with Professor Justin Lin of the Beijing Center for New Structural Economics and Helen Hai, the UN’s goodwill ambassador for industrialisation in Africa, on a strategy to strengthen support for manufacturing in special economic zones (SEZ). As in China, the SEZs would be used to drive foreign investment in manufacturing but also to develop better power, water, transport and communications services for manufacturers in the zones. The target is to generate $30bn a year in export earnings by 2025. Meanwhile, the auto sector is attempting to rebuild its former lustre. Several car assembly plants have opened in the past few years, and local car manufacturer Innoson is forging ahead.

ANDREJS KIRMA; AGNI; DINOSOFT LABS; GREGOR CRESNAR/THE NOUN PROJECT

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to provide better services. In early February, Lagos State governor Akinwunmi Ambode introduced new rules allowing the state to produce, via private-public investments, some 3,000MW of power to be used exclusively in the state and not hooked into the national grid.

Andela trains software developers in Lagos

TOM SAATER/THE NEW YORK TIMES/REA

TIPPING THE SCALES AT LAST

Ugodre Obi-Chukwu, founder of the financial analytics firm Nairametrics, reckons the government’s attempts at restructuring have been a qualified success. “Local production of staple foods has gone up and the import bill has fallen […] some of that is the work of the previous agriculture minister Akinwunmi Adesina and some is due to the shortage of foreign exchange after the oil price crash.” Monitoring prices and supplies in markets across the country, Nairametrics found that local rice was making strides against imports from Thailand and India. That is making a substantial dent in the over $10bn-per-year food import bill. Local sugar production is forecast to meet the national demand of 1.6m tonnes a year by 2020. Boosting tomato production to replace the 150,000tn of concentrate imported each year, costing some $170m, is also a target being pushed by Enelamah’s ministry. Those cuts in imports and the build-up of foreign reserves to more than $40bn in the past year give the government more room to manoeuvre. But it remains cautious on radical restructuring, says Obi-Chukwu.“Therecession[of2016]was a missed opportunity […] it would have been a big political risk but they could have used that crisis to deregulate the downstreamoilsectorandfloatthenaira.” Instead, those institutional battles are still to be fought. Most industry experts reckon that Aliko Dangote’s $10bn, 500,000-barrels-per-day oil refinery and petrochemical plant, expected to start operations late next year, will be a game-changer. And Segun Adebutu, chief executive of Petrolex, tells The Africa Report that he is making progress in raising the finance to build a refinery in Ogun State at a cost of $3.5bn. After three decades of trying to run state-owned refineries and being outwitted by avaricious fuel traders and smugglers, the government is starting its slow withdrawal from the oil sector. The signs are that Nigeria’s new economy, when it surfaces fully, will be dominated by its fast-growing companies.

The tech revolution

A small group of young Nigerians is coding, but what about those left out from the wave change?

Okechukwu Enelamah, Nigeria’s igeriahasalreadyboughtitsadmission ticket to join the fabled trade minister, tells The Africa Report ‘fourth industrial revolution’. that he shares the enthusiasm for the new digital economic take-off. His But politicians, business people and civic activists differ over how quickly communications adviser, Constance the revolution will take hold on the Ikokwu, cites a McKinsey report forecountry’s economic and social life. casting that Nigeria’s digital economy Partly, it is a generational and cultural could create three million jobs over the split, sometimes an ideological split. next decade. Enelamah adds: “Now But for computer-literate millennials, what you will find is that if you do the basics right then you will do better going to coding lessons in high school is as natural as their predecessors when you have these new technolreading the works of Chinua Achebe ogies […]. It’s good to tell ourselves and Wole Soyinka as set texts for their the truth. So you’ll find us investing literature examinations. in our people, getting our schooling Nigeria’s telecoms revolution has system right – the primary, secondary, vocational education right.” generated massive growth through the sheer weight of numbers. It has more than 150 milNigeria’s digital economy lion active users of cellcould create three million phones,60%ofwhomuse jobs over the next decade theinternet.Thatnumber will surpass 90% over the next three years, companies predict. But that, warns Enelamah, does not mean some of the cities career into a So, with more than 100 million peohigh-tech world of the 21st century ple connectedby increasinglypowerful mobile devices, the effects on the while other parts of the country stay spread of information and education stuck in the last millennium. “We are already phenomenal. The first wave should embrace technology then use it of innovations using artificial intellito empower people through the digital gence, 3D printing, nanotechnology, economy – services are as important as manufacturing.” The government biotechnology, solar energy storage is committed to backing the country’s and quantum computing is already nascent tech sector with funds and inlapping through Nigerian cities. The frastructure but not, Enelamah insists, northern city of Kano has become a getting in its way. P.S. in Lagos centre for trading in cryptocurrencies. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Okechukwu Enelamah

Minister of industry, trade and investment, Nigeria

Double-digit growth will come Enelamah talks to The Africa Report about why government must work with the private sector, how to diversify the oil-backed economy and driving growth up to 10%

key recruit to N i g e r i a’s e c o nomic reform team, Okechukwu Enelamah is a man of proverbs and patience. As befits a minister for trade and investment who took up his post in the worst recession for more than two decades, he is also a fully paid-up optimist. One of his favourite proverbs states unarguably: “You can’t be taller than me and shorter than me at the same time.” This has a relevance for economic development as well, he explained to a packed conference of business students, meaning that “our perceived weaknesses may well provide the opportunity and motivation we need.” Astrategicsense,combinedwith new policies and systems, is helping to launch an industrial revolution in Nigeria, insists Enelamah. But forget headlines and spectacularannouncements,hewarns.New realities on the ground are more important: fast-rising local rice and wheat production and a new generationofpetrochemicalplants and oil refineries are changing the economic landscape.

Enelamah is close to vicepresident Yemi Osinbajo. They are both technocrats who hail from Lagos, trying to get the worlds of business and government to work together. Enelamah started out as a medical student at the University of Nigeria, where he qualified with distinction. A decade later, a scholarship to Harvard Business School sent him into finance, first withZephyrManagementinSouth Africa during the Nelson Mandela years and then to establish his own private-equity firm, African Capital Alliance, in Nigeria. A decade later, it was the biggest in the country. TAR: Your government is committed to industrialisation and cuttingimportdependency.How much progress are you making? OKECHUKWU ENELAMAH: The ultimate objective is to create jobs, and to export and get foreign exchange. So there will be some things you need to import, like welding machinery and raw materials. One has to innovate and look for ways of producing more locally, because ultimately that creates jobs and adds value to the economy. But it can be dynamic, it can evolve over time.

DOCTOR’S ORDERS 1985 Bachelor of Medicine, Bachelor of Surgery (MBBS), University of Nigeria 1994 Master’s in Business Administration (MBA), Harvard University 1997-2015 Founder & CEO of private equity firm African Capital Alliance (ACA) November 2015 Appointed minister of industry, trade, and investment

For supporters of the ‘Washington consensus’, industrial policy is anathema, state intervention in the markets worse still. Where do you stand? You need to give some credit to the World Bank. They work with governments. It is not necessarily intervention – we call it engagement – but it defines an important role for government. The type of industrial policy we embrace is saying that government has a res ponsibilitytomakechoicesonhow you will support the private sector: policies that would support local manufacturing; monetary policy that would support things like foreign exchange; fiscal policies that would support green [projects]. Do you see dangers in some of the pro-market theology? There was a concern that the WorldBank,insupportingmarkets,

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equipment, give the right training to the people and motivate them by setting the standards.

KENECHUKWU NWATU FOR JA

Are you going to hit the target of self-sufficiency in rice and wheat by the end of 2018? There is a great expression: ‘Don’t worry about when, worry about if.’ If you’re going to be self-sufficient in rice and wheat that’s already a victory, even if it takes 10 years. Trends are more important than levels. We are on the right path.

did not care enough about the consequences in the short or even medium term. Because when products come flooding in and nobody is paying attention, a lot of importsaredumped.Everycountry has a responsibility to make sure it is not a victim of dumping, or of sub-standard goods or goods that can be manufactured locally. Your recovery and growth plan has some very ambitious targets. Vice-president Osinbajo talks of raising $24bn in new investment by 2020. How realistic is that? Depending on who you ask, they will say those targets are not ambitious enough. Look at the investment Nigeria needs for infrastructure, industry, services and employment. There are tens of billions [needed]. Last year alone, investments of $60bn plus were announced in Nigeria. THE AFRICA REPORT

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South Korea chose to go into shipbuilding and became a world leader. Where is Nigeria’s comparative advantage? South Korea would be an extreme case where you decide to do lot of things at the same time […] iron ore, steel. In a competitive world in the 21st century, you can

“If we complete our reforms, infrastructure […] it will create a virtuous cycle” learn from others and refine your strategy. Our comparative advantage is agro-processing because we grow most of the things here. They are labour-intensive, and our labour is cheap. You also have to look at industries, whether it’s petrochemicals, light manufacturing or agro-processing. What is needed is to bring in the right

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SomeNigerianpolicyexpertstalk of using oil to get beyond oil. Is thatanythingmorethanaslogan? There are countries that have managed their oil right […] like Norway, where they have a big trust fund for their oil and they continue to do well in other areas. In Saudi Arabia, they are saying business as usual will not cut it, and they are going to fairly extreme lengths to try and correct it. We are in the recovery and growth plan, and are really committed to it, not just talking about propaganda. We havetoimplementthesolutionthat diversifies us away from oil, while making use of the oil revenues to help that diversification. Given you have a country of 180 million people with world-class oil and gas reserves, are your growth targets of 3-5% ambitious enough? That’s why you have to look at the trajectory rather than a single point. Whether it’s 2.7% or 3.5%, it’s not nearly enough. Our target is double-digit growth. We’re planning to do 7% in the next couple of years, but then move to 10% to rebuild the economy. You have to give credit to this government […] we’re trying to be realistic so that people won’t say you over-promised. If we complete our infrastructure, reforms, industrial revolution and special economic zones, things will be mutually reinforcing so that it will create a very powerful virtuous cycle, and 10% growth will come. And we’re pushing hard. Interview by Patrick Smith in Abuja

Baba Danpullo Group An African success story

BIO

Baba Ahmadou Danpullo Group (BAG SA) is a dynamic and ethical group with the ambition of becoming a key economic player in its sectors of activity. Its progress has contributed to Cameroon’s economic growth while its expansion beyond Cameroon’s borders has taken its expertise to South Africa, Nigeria and Switzerland. The Group’s quality demands contribute to establishing a culture of excellence while at the same time preserving the human values that are its foundations.

Sodecoton Quality cotton guaranteed Through Société Immobilière du Cameroun (SMIC), the Baba Amadou Group is an 11 percent shareholder of Sodecoton. The State of Cameroon is the major shareholder, with 49%, while French company Geocoton holds 30% of the shares. Sodecoton was founded by the Cameroonian government to oversee the cotton industry - farming and trade - in Cameroon. Based in Garoua, in the northern part of Cameroon, Sodecotonisoneofthesub-region’s leading agribusiness companies.

aba Ahmadou Danpullo is a 65-year-old entrepreneur and businessman from

English-speaking Cameroon. He began his business career in the road haulage and retail

Viettel Cameroun S.A

trade before going into the rice import business. In 1977, he founded the Baba Ahmadou Group (BAG SA) which, over the years, has diversified into real estate, agribusiness (livestock, tea, cotton), transport (aviation, air freight), telecommunications (mobile telephony), media (TV channel) and trading. Like many South African companies, the Baba Ahmadou Group has expanded into other countries including South Africa, Nigeria and Switzerland. Known as one of the richest men in Cameroon, Baba Ahmadou Danpullo is also a philanthropist who helps the poor through his association, Sodelco, which builds schools and health centres in Cameroon’s disadvantaged areas.

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Elba Ranch Ltd. Intensive farming aimed at self-sufficiency Livestock is the core of the group’s activities, through this family business founded in 1976. It comprises three ranches located in Ndawara, Esu and Batcham in the Northwest Region of Cameroon. The company owns about 20,000 head of cattle including beef breeds of French origin like the Charolais and Blonde d’Aquitaine. Elba Ranch Ltd also possesses about 3,000 horses including Andalusian and Arab breeds. It is also one of the largest sheep and goat breeders in Central Africa, where its livestock products are sold.

A 3G pioneer in Cameroon The most recent of the three cellphone operators to enter the Cameroonian market,Viettel Cameroon launched its commercial activities on 12 September 2014. Trading as Nexttel, this operator is based in Douala and has two shareholders, namely the Vietnamese company Viettel-Group and Bestinver. As the third largest telecommunications operator and the pioneer of 3G technology in Cameroon, Nexttel now boasts 3.6 million subscribers and has created more than 1,000 direct jobs and over 60,000 indirect jobs. The operator invested 250 billion CFA francs during its first two years of business in this market.

Bestinver

Star Away Airlines

Truly popular TV

Real estate ambitions

Safety first

Dan Broadcasting System (DBS) is a television channel that was founded in Douala in 2006 and that has been broadcasting since 1 June 2009. It primarily covers business news and current political and social affairs. To reach all strata of the population, it broadcasts programmes in Fulfulde, Haoussa, Douala, Pidgin, Ewondo, and Bassa as well as other local languages. It also favours young journalists to ensure a constant renewal of personnel in the country’s media landscape.

Through this subsidiary that operates under South African law, BAG SA has real estate assets in various locations in Cameroon, Nigeria, South Africa, Europe and the United States. Assets include warehouses, apartments, shopping centres and commercial buildings. Today, it has the largest portfolio of independent properties in South Africa, comprising mainly commercial buildings and shopping centres in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Port Elizabeth.

Headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa, this regional airline offers customers optimal security. Every operational aspect of the business, be it equipment maintenance, infrastructure or personnel, has been conceived and developed according to the highest quality standards equivalent to those applied in the European Union. It has a freight subsidiary that is partnered with airlines around the world.

Sodelco Paying it forward

Moulin Coq Rouge (MCR) A flagship of the milling industry Specialising in wheat flour milling, MCR has a current capacity of 400 tonnes of flour per day for an effective production of 325 tonnes per day. MCR produces regular and specially treated baking flour. It also produces special flour for the preparation of donuts, a product that is in great demand locally. Wheat is imported from Germany while the technical assistant and additive supplier is Ait Soufflet, the France’s leading miller and the largest cereal exporter in Europe.

Sodelco is a renowned NGO that develops educational, health, infrastructure, sports and environmental projects. The founder of the company believes that, «The economic development of a company can only be fully achieved if it is accompanied by the socio-economic and human development of neighbouring local communities [...]». The Baba Ahmadou Group SA attaches a requirement to every investment: to provide added value and technologies in the countries concerned; to respect environmental standards similar to those applied in the European Union; to respect the laws, particularly in social and fiscal matters, of the countries in which it invests; and to contribute to the social development of local communities.

Tea & tourism

Cameroon Tea Estates (CTE) and Ndawara Highland Tea Estate (NHTE) Tea industry expertise These two agribusinesses specialising in tea production are the exclusive property of the Baba Ahmadou family. The plantations cover an overall area of more than 10,000 ha, divided into four tea plantations spread over three regions of Cameroon (Southwest, West, Northwest). The total production capacity is 8,000 tonnes per year, of which 80% is for export (loose tea in 20 kg and 40 kg) and 20% sold on the local market (tea bags). Both companies produce only black tea. However, given the growing demand for green tea, the group plans to make this category of tea available to customers.

The Ndawara ranch is home to the largest tea plantation in Cameroon. In addition to this agricultural aspect, there are numerous ecotourism activities to attract visitors: see the whole property on horseback, organisation of Fantasias, cast a fishing line into the artificial lake or relax in the ultra-modern Guest House, specifically designed to host and accommodate tourists. A veritable haven of greenery, the region is home to an exceptional biodiversity, with a multitude of monkey species (baboons, chimpanzees, etc.), ostriches, peacocks, pythons, camels and even sea lions that can be observed at the edge of the Mbi crater lake, a regional biological treasure. The health and safety of visitors is ensured through a health centre and a police station. For more comfort and independence, visitors will find everything they need at the nearby shopping centre. In Ndawara, everything is designed for a serene and peaceful break.

DIFCOM/DF - PHOTOS: DR.

DBS

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

Making money, hatching plans BUA INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

With the economy out of recession and elections on the horizon in 2019, politicians and business leaders alike are making their moves

business

Abdulsamad Rabiu Trading sharp elbows

Iyinoluwa Aboyeji Serial start-ups Iyinoluwa Aboyeji is the poster boy for Nigeria's upstart start-up scene. Though many claim the title serial entrepreneur, few wear it well. Not so for Aboyeji, who has already created four companies, one of which, Andela, received a $24m investment from the foundation of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Andela is helping to create the next generation coders. Aboyeji's newest venture, Flutterwave, helps people and companies complete payments across various platforms, including, of course, mobile phones. “The digital economy is the new global economy,” Aboyeji tells investors.

Veteran industrialist Abdulsamad Rabiu and his BUA Group are less well known outside Nigeria compared to fellow northern traderturned-manufacturer Aliko Dangote. Currently, the two are battling it out over limestone mining in Edo State. In September 2015, BUA Group struck a $600m deal with Chinese cement company Sinoma International Engineering for a second production line to be built at its Obu cement plant.

MAX GREEN EKELIN

Segun Adebutu Refined business

IGH

LR ED RV SE RE

The film producer and director, who once upon a time was nearly a lawyer, now creates blockbuster Nollywood films that shed stereotypes around quality and make good money in the process. He is best known for Last Flight to Abuja and his hit TV series about bankers, The Calabash.

Obi Emelonye Banking on Nollywood

The great push to diversify Nigeria’s energy sector continues – and the country’s second large-scale commercial refinery is planned to open in 2021, according to Segun Adebutu, chief executive of Petrolex Oil and Gas. His plans are buttressed by an already existing infrastructure of storage tanks, which sit next to the construction site for the refinery in Ogun State. Though not as big as Dangote’s planned 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, to open in the next two years, its 250,000-per-day capacity will make Nigeria a hub for refined petroleum exports in West Africa.

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political AMINU ABUBAKAR/AFP

The strongman of Rivers State politics is in his first term as governor of the oil-rich state after wresting control from the camp of its previous strongman, friend-turned-foe Rotimi Amaechi, in the 2015 gubernatorial polls. Wike’s eye is on the big picture though. Having installed his man Uche Secondus as national chairperson of the faltering People’s Democratic Party (PDP) party and becoming its de facto chairman, his next step will be to get a malleable set of candidates to attempt a return to power at the centre. Recent visits over the past three months to the Sultan of Sokoto, ex-president Ibrahim Babangida and Aminu Tambuwal, the governor of Sokoto, signify an intention to woo the north into an alliance ahead of polls in 2019.

Rabiu Kwankwaso Dancing with defection

The former governor of Ondo State – at the confluence between south-west and the Niger Delta – is a key ally of former president Goodluck Jonathan and seen as a stabilising force in the PDP. Believed to harbour vice-presidential ambitions, Mimiko could be a suitable candidate for running mate thanks to his stellar performance in his state’s health and education sector. Seizing control of the south-west from Bola Tinubu, the All Progressives Congress (APC) grandee who has a fractious relationship with President Muhammadu Buhari, will be a herculean task for Mimiko. His level of success might depend on whether Tinubu is willing to betray his own party.

Olusegun Mimiko Heading south-west

The most critical challenger to throw a spanner into the works of President Muhammadu Buhari’s re-election plans for next year may be Rabiu Kwankwaso. The senator has a wealth of experience as a former defence minister and two-time governor of the strategic northern state of Kano, where he is still widely influential despite falling out with his former deputy Umar Ganduje. A runner-up in the 2014 APC presidential primaries, he is expected to defect to the opposition PDP this year. He would take with him the Kwankwasiyya movement – his horde of fanatical supporters in the state – which delivered 1.9 million of the available 2.1 million votes to Buhari’s election victory in 2015. Kwankwaso has been making efforts to extend handshakes across the Niger as well, including being present at the highly publicised funeral of former vice-president Alex Ekwueme in early February.

Ahmed Makarfi Ready to serve

Nasir El-Rufai Rising restructurer

Makarfi is a two-time governor and former senator with a distinguished career in banking and finance. Despite recently being the interim PDP chairman, he has dismissed the return of Atiku Abubakar to the party, stressing that he is not the game changer the PDP needs to rebuild. Makarfi is seen in some quarters as a dark horse for a presidential run, having declared himself “ready to serve Nigeria in that capacity”. It is very unlikely that such an offer will come, given that the PDP might also be welcoming Aminu Tambuwal, Bukola Saraki or Rabiu Kwankwaso, arguably more popular politicians, into the fold.

Loved and hated in equal measure, Nasir El-Rufai has been hailed nonetheless for his technocratic leanings. He returned the capital to its original masterplan in his time as minister of the federal capital territory under the Olusegun Obasanjo administration. As governor of Kaduna, however, serial crises have engulfed the state, including the harassment of the Shia Muslim minorities and raging herdsmen-farmer conflicts. As chair of the APC committee on restructuring, he may help return the country to the regional autonomy witnessed at independence.

AFOLABI SOTUNDE/REUTERS

Nyesom Wike Eyes on centre stage

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How have some of these companies taken the opportunity to evolve? Several companies have executed contracts above $100m and have built excellent facilities. For example, Nestoil and Oilserv have both constructed several sorts of pipeline and developed themselves into full engineering, procurement, construction and installation companies.

Bank-Anthony Okoroafor

Chairman, Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (Petan)

Major projects are not moving fast enough

TAR: What were the factors that led up to the 2010 passing of the local content act? BANKANTHONYOKOROAFOR: There was a genuine need to increase the participation of indigenous companies in the oil and gas sector. Prior to the act, the level of participation was less than 5%. Andtherewasalsoadesireforlocal value-creation by increasing what we call backward linkages in terms of procurement, so using locally produced input materials to create more opportunities for the locals. There has been some $300bn in capital flight over the past 50 years from oil and gas activities. That’swhyweneedtopushtokeep some of the spending in-country. Without the bill,businessopportunities would be captured primarily by foreign companies – a situation where 95% of the service sector spending goes to foreign firms. Indigenous service companies’ participation had been flat in Nigeria over the previous 50 years. Without a strong legal framework thatpushesourinternalfabrication and manufacturing base, real local content growth cannot be a reality.

TWITTER

The spokesman for Nigeria’s indigenous oil services companies tells The Africa Report what’s changed in five years How have companies responded since the bill was passed? A lot of progress has been made […] in terms of equipment ownership and capacity development. […] You now have indigenous marine vessel companies like Marine Platforms, Starzs, Elshcon and Vhelbherg, and indigenous rig companies like Uniterm, Tecon and Tasaniola. More fabrication tonnage is now done in-country, with companies such as Aveon,

“Some 80% of engineering is now carried out in-country, and training has increased” Dorman Long and Energy Works. And,importantly,wehaveseenthe domestication of floating, production, storage and offloading vessel integration capability in Ladol, the first of its kind in Africa. Some 80% of engineering is now carried out in-country,trainingin-countryhas increased considerably, as well as seismic processing and integrated reservoir studies done in-country, with companies like IDSL, CB Geophysical and VerityGeo.

Howhaveoilservicescompanies coped with cheap oil? The service companies were hit terribly when the oil price dropped. With the oil price inching up slowly,wedo hope the activities will pick up. The major projects like Bonga SW and Zabazaba do not seem to be moving as fast as needed. Nigeria has the lowest well services activity ratio. We as a country need to increase our drilling and well services if we really want to achieve our planned 4m barrels per day and 40bn barrels of reserves. This does not happen by talk alone. In terms of financial effects on the companies, we have not seen a wave of consolidations. None of our members, for example, has gone bust. Banks have rescheduled most of the debts. What are the three things that the government could do that wouldmosthelpyourmembers? Create lasting sustainable peace in the Niger Delta, ringfence the exploration budget to do more exploration, drilling and well services, and remove bottlenecks on most big projects so that capacities and capabilities built are not lost. Are you happy at the passing of thefirsttrancheofthePetroleum Industry Bill? We are happy that progress has been made by the legislators after several years of front and back. It is a step in the right direction. But we still want them to go ahead and pass the fiscal bill. Most investors want to know what the fiscals are before putting in their money. Passage of this bill and the fiscals will encourage investment in the Nigerian petroleum industry. Interview by Nicholas Norbrook

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60 COUNTRY FOCUS | NIGERIA

Cheta Nwanze

Head of research, SBM Intelligence

Hey, teacher … when is Nigeria finally going to learn its lesson?

here has been a major brouhaha in Kaduna. The state government tried to fire several teachers it deemed unqualified following a mass failure on a standardised test. The teachers got the labour unions on their side, and we appear to be heading for a showdown. For the record, I support the move to sack the unqualified teachers. Education is too important to be put in the hands of people who can ruin our collective future simply because they do not know better. This is especially important in northern Nigeria, a region that has been labelled “educationally disadvantaged” since 1973. However, the process of sacking the teachers and replacing them has to be done with great care. This care is called “change management”, and it is vital. Whether the political class likes it or not, Nigeria will be forced at some point to undergo a sea change in the way its affairs are run. Some choose to call it restructuring. At that time, our change management skills will be put to the test. The first set of people to be affected will be those employed by our cosy and bloated civil service. Civil servants have for years had an entitlement mentality. They believe, perhaps correctly, that they cannot be sacked. Paradoxically, a lot of them recognise that they are not productive, and they have accepted that attitude as normal. For the archetypal civil servant, a work day consists of showing up late, filling out the attendance roster then buggering off soon after lunch. It is their share of the fabled national cake. Student performance and parental demands will compel you to always seek out the best teachers. However, these teachers are also civil servants, and therein lies one of the problems. It is a lesson in how we have allowed standards in our public services to slip to abysmal levels. These are issues real federalism would address in Nigeria, but who wants restructuring?. Over-centralisation has not worked – that much is clear. Basic schooling should not be managed by state governments, but by local governments with truly devolved powers and financial independence. State governments should not own primary and secondary schools, in the same manner the federal government should not own almost 50 universities. The sole duty of government should be to design

funding schemes for institutions and to regulate and guarantee standards for tutors, teachers and the general curriculum while allowing communities and private players to compete. Let us focus on what is to come: the Kaduna government will let go of 21,000 teachers, and, as per governor Nasir el-Rufai, recruit 25,000 qualified ones. But what will happen in five years when he certainly will no longer be there? Let me guess. In five years, the newly recruited teachers will probably become like the old ones. They will become civil servants with little incentive to be better because they will receive

their meagre allowances regardless, and firing them would be political suicide for El-Rufai’s successors. How does this relate to Nigeria and restructuring? The difficulty the Buhari administration, and a few before it, has encountered enacting long-lasting reform lies in the fact that when we structure on paper, the very people who would ultimately benefit the most – the civil servants – will fight to preserve the barely palatable crumbs the system provides. Education reform in Kaduna is thus a proxy for fiscal federalism, for ending the federal character principle, for whittling down the exclusive legislative list, for wider economic reform and for securing free, fair and credible elections. Will we be ready for these battles when they inevitably come? THE AFRICA REPORT

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The post-manu

future

Robots and artificial intelligence are upending traditional pathways to industrialisation and threatening the jobs that go with it. The Africa Report scours the continent for the best strategies for survival and evolution By Nicholas Norbrook

oulouse, south-west France: a worker on a high-tech assembly line sports what appears to be deeply unfashionableeyewear.TheAirbus employee is actually wearing augmented reality glasses, into which are beamed the specifications of the rivet job he is doing: which head the pneumatic gun requires and the torque level of the gun. Meanwhile, in Ansbach, southernGermany,threeorange-limbed

robots dance over a pair of uber-customised trainers. Shoe manufacturer Adidas is set to open another robot-powered ‘Speedfactory’ in Atlanta in the US. Neither will produce more than 500,000 trainers per year, small beer in Adidas’s total annual delivery of 300m trainers. But you can see the direction of travel for the manufacturing sector. In Little Rock, Arkansas, home state of one William Clinton, a new automated factory is being built.

“From fabric cutting and sewing to finished product, it takes roughly four minutes,” Tang Xinhong, chairman of Tianyuan Garments, told reporters in August 2017. “We will install 21 production lines. When fully operational, the system will make one T-shirt every 22 seconds. We will produce 800,000 T-shirts a day for Adidas.” For more than a century, development followed a pattern. First consolidate your politics into a functional state. Fix your farms, use the surplus to get into light manufacturing and push into heavy industry to employ your masses. It made South Korea, Japan and China rich yesterday, and the United States, France and Britain before that. But what if tomorrow does not look like today? China, desperate not to lose its hold on the role of workbench of

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As discussed at the

Shaping the future of Africa

Abidjan 26-27 MARCH 2018

facturing g the world, is investing heavily in i industrial robots, part of a govern nment initiative known as ‘Made iin China 2025’. The country is alread dy the largest purchaser of robots fo or industry, a $30bn market. ng And it’s not just robots drivin this industrial change. Artificiaal intelligence is set to alter deman nd for manufactured goods radicaally. New logistics platforms like ride-sharing apps are even more threatening, according to Yasser Mufti, a senior Saudi Aramco executive. The consultants at AlixPartners predict that 32 car sales could potentially be lost for every car signed up into carsharing services. In the US, the number of ‘zero car’ families has been going up since 2004 and is nowaround10%ofthepopulation. So those countries banking on using manufacturing to absorb a THE AFRICA REPORT

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SOFTWEAR AUTOMATION

DENIS ALLARD/REA

Human production lines will disappear, but industrial clusters implanted now will still have value

85% Ethiopian jobs under threat from automation SOURCE: CITI

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large proportion of their unskilled labour are the ones that are the most in danger, says economist Dani Rodrik of Harvard University. Given the demographics of the continent, there is cause for alarm. TOO EARLY AND TOO LATE

Researchers at the United Nations Conference for Trade and Development (UNCTAD) have been watching this phenomenon play out for decades: since the 1980s, countries appear to be

creating fewer and fewer manufacturing jobs despite growth in the restoftheeconomy.“It’spremature de-industrialisation,” says Richard Kozul-Wright,directorofglobalisation at UNCTAD. How can African countries navigate this tough new world? Can Africa’s economies be opportunistic and flexible? Much has been made of the possibilities of copying the exportdriven explosion of prosperity seen in East Asian countries like Japan, ChinaandSouthKorea,oftenusing

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special economic zones that have less red tape and better access to ports and power. With the current changes in the production landscape, was it a mistake, for example,fortheMoroccangovernment to have spent €1bn ($1.2bn) on luring the French carmaker Renault to its Tangier-Med export processing zone? Perhaps President Paul Kagame of Rwanda is correct to say that Africa has missed its ‘Asia moment’ because“wewaitedtoolongtoact” (see page 36). An alarmist report by Citibank in 2016 suggested that 85% of jobs in Ethiopia were at risk from automation. Helen Hai, the former chief executive of Huajian, a Chinese shoemaker, insists: “There is still a window [of opportunity].” Hai oversaw the construction of one of the first factories in a new flurry of textile and shoes plants in Ethiopia back in 2012. “Maybe it is just [for] a few decades, but there is a window,” she argues. To seize that opportunity will require action, not laissez-faire, suggestsKozul-Wright.Healsocites Ethiopiaasanexampleofacountry keeping up the pace of reform and improvement. Its latest additions are a new freight connection to Djibouti and colossal hydropower plants to keep energy prices low.

An inconvenient truth AS SUCCESSIVE WAVES OF INDUSTRIALISATION PASS, you need greater and greater state involvement to be successful. That might fly in the face of the wisdom of the World Bank and the IMF, who spent the 1980s dismantling institutions in Africa that supported industry. But economic history suggests otherwise. While there was minimal involvement of the UK government in its own industrial big bang in 1820, in Germany and the US there were large state-owned banks that helped channel finance to local corporates in the 1880s. Later still, in Japan, the state was even more involved – its ministry of trade and industry became the stuff of legend for its careful steering of Japan’s heavy industry drive, which produced Toyota and Sony. That is because each subsequent round requires ever more sophisticated machinery, and the state is the only institution that aggregates capital. But success also requires discipline. If the IMF was so aggressive in taking down institutions like grain marketing boards – which in Japan were a critical part of jumping from agriculture to light industry – it is because in Africa in the 1980s, these institutions were bleeding Africa’s treasuries dry. “I’m not sure the Ethiopians are quite there yet”, says UNCTAD’s Richard Kozul-Wright. N.N.

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To attract manufacturing activity today, bringing down costs is an obvious first step. For example, cargo takes two to three weeks to be processed at the main port in Nigeria, compared to four days in Kenya and one in Singapore. Beyond logistics, power is the other critical roadblock to industrial progress. Standard Bank’s head of oil and gas for Southern Africa, Paul Eardley-Taylor, points to new growth opportunities. He says a change in China’s energy policy, where two provinces have been forced to use gas rather than coal for power, will create greater demand globally. If this filters through to Africa’s gas projects, it should increase domestic gas supplies across many African markets, then broadening access and lowering prices.

MICHEL TEULER

CLUSTER EFFECT

Hai, the former Huajian executive, compares the economic zones provided for her firm five years ago to the ones that the Ethiopian government is building today. The new Hawassa zone in southern Ethiopia solves some of the problems she found the first time around, but more importantly, it is trying to deliver a cluster effect. “For real industrialisation, you need hundreds or thousands of companies doing exactly the same thing. And then the whole supply chain will come, the packaging companies, [etc.] and then

everybodygrowstogether,” saysHai. The fact that the Hawassa zone has attracted big players such as PVH, which own big brands like Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, will help the cluster to pick up speed. Next, the private sector, boosted by infrastructure and a supportive industrial ecosystem, will need to punch its way into the disaggregated global supply chains that characterise modern manufacturing. Complex products like planes and cars are created by assembling parts built across several locations, with multinationals holding the top rungs of the ladder. THE AFRICA REPORT

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS 65

Industrial robots in the automotive industry

Peak manufacturing levels

(annual installation, world and selected countries, 2010-2015)

Republic of Korea Japan Mexico

’000 of units 120

World (right scale)

100

SOURCE: UNCTAD

US 1953

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Some Moroccan companies are finally making big moves thanks to the strong foundation created by the government’s decade-long push to support the car sector. Induver, a Moroccan company, is partnering with global glass giant AGC Group of Japan and together they are building a new factory in Kenitra. It should produce more than a million windshields per year from 2019. Hakim Abdelmoumen, Induver’s chief executive, points to the benefits that come with being embedded into the higher echelons of global manufacturing: “We have been THE AFRICA REPORT

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2015

8 MEXICO 1990

Creating infrastructure for cruise ships is one way industrial policy can boost the tourism sector

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KOREA 1989

BRAZIL 1986

COLOMBIA 1970 CHINA 1996

2 0

GERMANY 1970

SWEDEN 1961 UK 1961

5 0

INDIA 2002 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Manufacturing’s share in employment (%)

SOURCE: DANI RODRIK

China United States Germany

GDP per capita when peak reached (1990 ’000 US$)

able to place our employees in factories in Japan and across Europe to gain skills.” Morocco’s trade and industry minister, Moulay Hafid Elalamy, regularly talks about his desire to drive local content in the car sector. He told reporters: “What is important to understand is that once the carmakers came to Morocco, the parts-suppliers followed and we are now seeing the third phase, which is the integration of Moroccan capital.” In Nigeria, a local content development act dealing with the Nigerian oil sector (see page

58) was one of the few clear success stories of former president Goodluck Jonathan’s legislative programme. By legally requiring that Nigerian companies take up a certain percentage of international oil contracts, Nigeria now has dozens of small engineering and oil services companies working in the sector, as well as large companies such as Lagos Deep Offshore Logistics Base (Ladol). GOING GLOBAL

And Ladol, too, is now part of the international web of contracts that make up the global energy sector. French oil giant Total ordered a new offshore production rig from South Korean giant Samsung Heavy Industries, whose local technical partner is Ladol. On 24 January, to much fanfare, the hull of the $3.8bn Egina production unit, one of the largest in the world, finally arrived at Ladol’s deepwater docks, where the whole project is being put together. “We, as a Nigerian company, are carrying out services that previously you would have had to fly in people from abroad,” says Ladol chief executive Amy Jadesimi. But to prepare properly for a post-manufacturing future, Africa will need to find jobs in other domains. Agriculture is one obvious area where Africa has a comparative advantage, with abundant sunlight, water and labour. What many countries lack, however, is coordination – because that requires a strong civil service. Rwanda’s administration has attemptedtorepairthedeepcracks left in the civil service by decades of colonialisation and the 1994 genocide by introducing a contract system, known as Imihigo, signed between high-level civil servants and the government. Food and Agriculture Organisation resident representativeAttaherMaiga,inhis exit interview on 22 January, was the latest person to heap praise on the government’s impact in boosting the agricultural sector. Another well-managed body of civil servants, Ethiopia’s Agricultural Transformation Agency (ATA), has been critical in helping Heineken expand its

66 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

operations in the country. The ATA enabled the Dutch brewing multinational to rapidly increase seed stock of the right kind of barley; it used the army of state agricultural extension workers to assist in aggregating farmer produce via intermediaries into easily managed units; it facilitated import procedures; and it trained farmers in response to Heineken’s crop requirements. “The ATA helped us navigate all that,” says Heineken’s director of local sourcing, Paul Stanger. These are the ‘soft skills’ needed to improve the business climate. EMERGING SECTORS

In contrast, despite a deep-rooted change in Nigeria’s agricultural production, with rice production rising to 15m tonnes last year, there is still a great deal that could be done. There is the potential to double or triple sorghum yields, but it needs a “coordinated effort from private sector businesses such as Nigerian Breweries, government and the seed companies,” says Stanger. “I don’t think that one group can do it on their own.” Beyond agriculture and manufacturing, there are of course a multitude of other fruitful areas where African companies and countries will spread their wings and create employment. Tourism requires its own blast of industrial policy to help bring in the next wave of Asian strivers and ageing Europeans. Casablanca, for example, has built a special berth for cruise ships, to tap into the baby-boomer market on the other side of the Mediterranean. But perhaps the best way to survive the post-manufacturing future will be to play the technology game itself. Although not everyone will become an information systems whizkid, Seni Sulyman of Nigerian start-up Andela says there is a huge mismatch in global demand and supply for coding talent. “The world needs coders,” says Sulyman. And programmingfocused Andela, which took $24m in investment from Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg’s foundation in 2017, thinks that Africa will provide them.

Vera Songwe

Executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa

Millions of jobs have been created TAR: Will it be hard to repeat Asia’s export-driven boom? There is growth by exporting to the rest of the world, but because of the 1.2 billion people that are on the continent, we can actually grow by trading within the continent as well. So it will remain an export-oriented model but it will become a more focused intraAfrica export model. To some extent that was also what East Asia did, because at the time when East Asia started growing and taking off, you had Japan as the anchor country and a lot of East Asia was, of course, exporting to Japan.

that will require millions of jobs to be created every year for young people? Part of the fourth industrial revolution is that most people will not be employed in big factories. It’s probably not going to be as prevalent as we saw it in the 1940s or the 1930s, because you will have different kinds of platforms. For example, Uber doesn’t have 10,000 people sitting in an office. They do have 10,000 people working for them, but they are working off on their own. This is the kind of networking environment that we’re going to build towards. Now, are there people creating jobs in the continent? Yes, I think if you look at Ethiopian Airlines, it is clearly one of the most successful regional conglomerates today. Aliko Dangote is employing tens of thousands of people in agriculture, in cement, in energy, in services.

If you imagine the factories of tomorrow, equipped with artificial intelligence and high-tech components, are you worried that Africa’s manufacturing sector might not yield the number of jobs we have hoped for? With every industrial revolution There are some countries on the we have had the feeling that jobs will continent, such as Nigeria, that are be depleted. My guess is that history paying as much as 60% of their has shown us differently. But we will invariably have “African countries need to some segments of society spend […] the question is the who will not have the kind quality of the expenditure” of employment that they hoped for. A case in point is information technology. When government revenues to service telephones were introduced and there debt. Are you worried about were no people manning the phones, the prospect of a new African and we didn’t have to call a switchboard debt crisis? to reach someone, suddenly we all There are comfortably more than thought: ‘Oh my God, jobs are going five countries that have debt facility level to disappear.’ But look at all the jobs over 100 to 10, and then you have debt that have been created because people servicing that is more than 30% of thought of creating mobile phone apps. the government budget. So clearly there Look at the combination of MTN and are unsustainable debt levels. African Celtel in Nigeria, look at how many countries need to spend because they jobs they are creating today, mostly need to grow and they need to create out of their mobile platforms, because jobs and they need to provide the of the money transfer services that have infrastructure. The question is the quality emerged out of the mobile platform. of the expenditure, the quality of the I think there have been millions of jobs investment, and we know that with debt that have been created. the rate of return on the investment is not high enough to pay your debt. Interview by Mark Anderson How can African governments and in Addis Ababa business prepare a population surge THE AFRICA REPORT

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68 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

MINING

Randgold, the cost killer

With an eye on operating expenditure, the largest gold producer in francophone Africa has continued to grow in the downturn. What does Randgold do differently?

t the company’s annual general meeting held at Paris’s luxurious Hôtel de Crillonon12November2017,chief executive Mark Bristow boasted of a successful year and a mounting cash pile for Randgold Resources. The francophone Africa-focused company mined 1.25m ounces of the yellow metal in 2016. Due to an upsurge in the gold price over the past year – reaching $1,339 per ounce in January 2018 – Randgold recorded profits of $202.6m during the first nine months of 2017, a 22% increase compared with the same period in 2016. By driving down production costs from $698 per ounce in 2014 to a current $618, the 22-year-old mining group continues to grow despite the commodity price downturn.AnumberofRandgold’s smaller competitors have not been so successful, which has created cheap acquisition opportunities. In 2016, this led to the purchase of Kilo Goldmines – situated near its Kibali mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – and the developmentofajointventurewith Alecto Minerals in Mali, close to its Loulo-Gounkoto mine. Bristow was also proud of Randgold’s stock performance, which has done better in the long term than the gold price. He points out that the latter is not the only factor influencing Randgold’s results. Explaining the strides made since 1995, Bristow says that the mostimportantthingwasnotwhat he and his team members did, but what they did not do: “We didn’t invest in loss-making mines; and we have never stopped exploring the African soil or looking for opportunities to purchase mines.” Magnus Ericsson, Sweden’s leading expert on mining economics, who teaches at Sweden’s Luleå University of Technology, says: “in order to understand Randgold’s

success, you have to remember that its founder is the heir to a line of South African geologists and mining engineers, who are the most experienced in gold mining on the continent. South Africa was for several years the world’s largest producer. He was one of the executives of Rand Mines, formerly the largest gold mining company in South Africa, at a time after independence when white South Africans were wondering about their future in the industry.” Indeed, Bristow admits that his South African journey before launching Randgold was important to help build his strategy in West and Central Africa. “I was managing 13 underground mines in South Africa and this was a key learning process in terms of technical, managerial and social issues – in negotiating with South Africa’s National Union of Mineworkers. I’m now a firm believer that it is possible to work with trade unions in a constructive manner, and today their representatives are on each of the boards of our mining sites,” he says.

$202.6m Profits Randgold made during the first nine months of 2017, a 22% increase in production compared to the same period in 2016

BHP Billiton, were chaotic. The company then turned to Central Africa a decade later, acquiring the Kibali permits in the DRC, where production began in 2013. “We continue to seek opportunities in two geological zones: the West African Craton […] and the Congo Craton,” says Bristow, who is interested in purchasing permits in countries where Randgold already has operations – Côte d’Ivoire, DRC, Mali and Senegal – while keeping an eye on Guinea and Burkina Faso and, to a lesser extent, Mauritania and Tanzania. But the company is not ready to spread its wings too far. “Buying permits in South Sudan or in

SOURCE: RANDGOLD

LEAVING HOME

Bristow’s choice to pursue opportunities outside South Africa with Randgold is in part personal. He says it is impossible to work in a dispassionate and effective way in his country of origin. Bristow, who also owns theSouth African-based company Rockwell Diamonds, says that Pretoria’s mining regulations are made to “enrich a new elite” who are close to the government and to the governing African National Congress, not the miners and their families. His hunch was that the franco phone countries close to Ghana may hold similarly rich gold reserves. Ericsson says that Bristow’s early days in Mali, after repurchasing the licenses of

In Mali, the Loulo mine is still operating despite an unresolved conflict with the government over taxes and royalties THE AFRICA REPORT

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The 7 champions of gold production in Africa in 2016

Bristow says his company is the first to have proved that “Africans can manage mines at the best international standards.” To ease things along, the group has appointed two former ministers, Côte d’Ivoire’s Safiatou Ba-N’Daw and the DRC’s Jeanine Mabunda Lioko, to its executive board. The company is also straightforward – or, as some critics like to say, “brutal” – in its dealings with governments, while other big mining groups such as Rio Tinto, Anglo American and AngloGold Ashanti prefer to combine political correctness and secrecy.

(million ounces)

2.28

(967,000 in South Africa)

Randgold

1.25

Gold Fields (South Africa)

Acacia Mining (Canada)

0.83

Endeavour Mining (Canada)

0.58

Nordgold (Russia)

0.49

IamGold (Canada)

0.45

GOVERNMENT WRANGLES

SOURCE: JEUNE AFRIQUE

AngloGold Ashanti (South Africa)

Central African Republic is not even worth considering at the moment due to security concerns,” he says. According to mining economist Ericsson, Randgold’s strength is its unrivalled position as a top “mine developer”. “The group is unmatched when it comes to transforming deposits into mines. That is where it creates most of its value and it is not afraid to do that in complicated countries such as the DRC,” he adds. To achieve this, Randgold relies first and foremost on its local teams. “Almost all of our operations are managed by local staff that we have trained […]. They are extremely brilliant people who we’ve sent to South Africa, France and the UK for training,” says Bristow, who himself used to teach at the University of KwazuluNatal. This policy, he says, has built loyalty among managers, ensuring low staff turnover, which would not be the case with (more expensive) Western expatriates.

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The direct approach does not always work. In the DRC, Bristow andhisteam,whoareactive members of the country’s Chambre des Mines, have been campaigning since 2013 against the new mining code. This delayed the passing of the bill for two years, but the national assembly passed it in early December 2017. Randgold is now allying itself with Swiss giant Glencore to block the Senate from approving the code. In Côte d’Ivoire, where the mining code is “the best on the continent” according to Bristow, the companyispushingforthecurrent limit of 10 exploration licences to be raised. It is also calling for the long administrative procedures to be simplified for miners that are already operating there. Randgold’s biggest challenge with government has been in Mali. Bamako continues to claim more than €100m ($124m) in unpaid taxes and royalties from Randgold. Bristow says the claim is unfounded. But the company is still in regular contact with the government. Randgold, whose activities account for close to 7% of Mali’s gross domestic product, wants to find an amicable solution to avoid going into international arbitration. In the meantime, despite a temporary shutdown of the firm’s local offices in 2016, its Morila and Loulo-Gounkoto mines have not stopped extracting Mali’s gold. Christophe Le Bec for Jeune Afrique

70 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

Lola Kassim General manager for West Africa, Uber

We don’t sell rider details Uber has made moves to grab a big market share in Ghana and Nigeria, but faces challenges from local operators and their host governments

overnments and trade unions around the world are hot under the collar about the ride-sharing app Uber. Lola Kassim will have to lean on her experience in the public sector, advising on policy and governance, to negotiate the sometimes rocky road in Uber’s third- and fourth-largest markets in subSaharanAfrica:NigeriaandGhana. Kassim took up the role of general manager for West Africa in October 2017, overseeing operations in Accra, Kumasi, Lagos and Abuja. The Ivy League-trained professional began her career as a policy adviser in the Canadian government. She spent a year advising the Liberian presidency on governance before joining McKinsey & Co. in 2014. “Engaging with regulators is one of our top priorities, we want to be able to provide the Uber service and Uber experience to as many people as possible in these countries,” she says. Uber launched in Nigeria in 2014, and relations with the

government started off well. They turned sour in late 2016, however, when the Lagos State government threatenedtoclampdownonUber vehicles that were not registered with the transport ministry and thus not licensed as taxis. Lagos State also claimed the company owed N600m ($1.7m) for failing to properly register its business. NO SMOOTH RIDE

The situation has been slightly better in Ghana, but it has not all been smooth sailing. The tech firm signed a Statement of Understanding with Ghana’s transport ministry in 2016 – the company’s first in Africa – to mark its launch in Accra. But early this year reports surfaced online of a meeting with Ghana’s transport ministry, during which Uber was said to be ordered to rebrand its drivers’carsastaxis.BothUberand the transport ministry denied the reported directive, though Kassim confirmed a meeting had occured. Since the ride-hailing service launched in the United States

FROM POLICY MAKING TO RIDE SHARING 2006 Chosen as one of the Canadian government’s Policy Leaders Class of 2006 2012-2013 Governance adviser to the Liberian presidency through the Africa Governance Initiative 2014-2017 Management consultant with McKinsey & Co. October 2017 Appointed Uber general manager for West Africa

in 2009, the multibillion-dollar company has been at the centre of regulatory disputes around the world. In December 2017, the European Union’s highest court ruled that Uber is a transport company and will be subjected to the same regulations as other taxi operators. This was a major blow for the disruptor, which had capitalised on its status as a digital service to circumvent transport industry laws and regulations. Ghana, Nigeria, and Uber’s other African markets – South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Uganda, Tanzania – are not there yet, but the growing anger among local taxicab drivers is increasing the threat of such laws. In Ghana, taxi drivers accuse Uber of violating a local law that requires commercial drivers to pay a quarterly vehicle insurance tax, in addition to the ubiquitous accusation of stealing their passengers. The US-based firm has also been criticised by the International Transport Workers’ Federation for its treatment of drivers – Uber refers to them as

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LOCAL CHALLENGERS

Kassim says Uber has tailored its services to meet the unique challenges of each African city it operates in, which often include heavy traffic. In Lagos, the company increased its per minute and per kilometre fares in November last year – from N5.5 ($0.01) to N11, and from N55 to N60 – to better compensate drivers for the time spent in traffic. The company charges drivers a 25% service fee, a standard in all of its markets. Earlier in October, the firm announced new app features for drivers, including the long trip notification and the ‘no thanks’ feature, which allows them to turn down trips. And keeping drivers happy is essential. Competition in the ride-sharing industry has become increasingly fierce, with homegrown players fighting Uber for a piece of its pie. In Nigeria alone, there are more than a dozen Uber-style apps including main rivals Taxify and Oga Taxi. These indigenous firms are fast changing the landscape of the sector, introducing additional features to stand outfromtheglobalbrand:freeWiFi on board, a built in SOS-button for emergencies, and driver/passenger liability insurance. New players have also successfully penetrated other Nigerian cities that Uber is yet to reach, such as Benin City, Port Harcourt, Abuja and Ibadan. Kassim embraces the competition as a great way to motivate companies to do better: “At the end of the day competition […] forces everybody to up their game and innovate so that you can provide better quality of service and THE AFRICA REPORT

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choice for consumers”. In addition to improving the app, Uber has introduced alternative payment methods in its African markets. “There are a lot of people who are still attached to paying things in cash. We made sure to introduce that option locally and it is popular both in Nigeria and Ghana,” says Kassim, who is not eying any regional expansions at the moment. In June 2017, it was reported that the Egyptian government had requestedaccesstoHeaven,Uber’s internal software that provides live ride tracking and customer and driver data. A similar request was made to its Middle Eastern archrival Careem. Both companies refusedto comply,but the demand has raised concerns about future laws that could force ride-sharing companies to give out sensitive passenger data. According to Kassim,suchamovewillgoagainst Uber’s current policies: “We work very hard to protect the privacy of both our riders and our driver partners, and we don’t use or sell driver or rider details,” she says. But the tech giant is open to some degree of sharing. It has launched a free tool called Uber Movement, which allows access to some of its aggregated and anonymiseddataontrafficflows,with the aim of helping policy-makers and regulators make decisions on

Uber has launched a free tool called Movement to help improve urban planning urban planning. Johannesburg was the first African city to get Movement, in September 2017. With 267,000 and 140,000 active riders in Nigeria and Ghana, Uber remains the dominant ridesharing app in the region, and Kassim says there continues to be great potential for growth: “I think the uptake that we’ve seen in Nigeria and Ghana has been amazing, both riders and drivers have been excited to have more alternatives in terms of how to move around”. Staying in the good books of local policy-makers will also be key moving forward.

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Oheneba Ama Nti Osei

Caroline Munene In January, Kenya-based AAR Insurance appointed Munene, then in chage of its Kenyan operations, as its chief executive for East Africa. The former director of the Insurance Institute of Kenya will now oversee AAR’s growth in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda.

Lesetja Kganyago In mid-January, South Africa’s Reserve Bank governor became the first representative of subSaharan Africa to lead the IMF’s International Monetary and Finance Committee, which advises the international finance institution’s go e g boa d governing board.

Saadia Slaoui Bennani The Essec Business School alumnus became the CEO of Valyans Consulting in January, when her co-founder Mohcine Jazouli got a government post. The company works on agriculture, renewable energy and other projects from its base in Morocco.

“driver-partners” – who often lack basic employee benefits like healthcare and a minimum wage. Kassim points out that the company has provided work for 7,000 and 3,000 active drivers in Nigeria and Ghana respectively, and that they are not employees but rather independent contractors. “This is an opportunity for someone to earn a living, create their own small business and have a way to help support themselves and their families,” she says.

WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

72 BUSINESS | FINANCE

BANKS

Why international groups are pulling out of Africa

British-based Barclays started divesting its African business in 2016

Competition from pan-African groups and regulatory pressure are pushing Western banks to reduce exposure to the continent

or international banks operating in Africa the continent has not lived up to expectations. They have been forced to re-evaluate their businesses, cutting down and restructuring operations, due to concerns about risk and profitability. In March 2016, Britain-based Barclays announced the sale of most its Africa businesses. The announcement meant the reduction of its 62.3% stake in its Johannesburg-listed subsidiary, Barclays Africa Group. It proceeded to get rid of its retail and corporate banking businesses in Egypt and Zimbabwe, selling them to Morocco’s Attijariwafa Bank and Malawi’s First Merchant Bank in October 2016 and June 2017, respectively. Later, in December 2017, the bank announced the final sale of a 7% stake in Barclays Africa, bringing its shares in the Africa unit down to 14.9%.

Barclays is not alone in being cautious on the continent. In November 2017, French bank BPCE International launched a search for a financial partner to help expand the activities of its African subsidiaries. According to group chief executive JeanPierre Levayer, a strategic review of its international retail banking business showed the bank would benefit from having an experienced and reputed local partner. The announcement appeared as much an admission as a strategic choice: “We have had difficulty expanding our activities as expected. We may not be the best-placed [to do so],” Levayer said. The bank plans to make deals before the end of its current strategic plan, in 2021, and is considering the sale of all its stakes or reducing its holdings to accommodate new partners. BPCE International is the majority shareholder in Banque

des Mascareignes in Mauritius, BMOI in Madagascar, BTK in Tunisa, BICEC in Cameroon and BCI in the Republic of Congo. In the current atmosphere of reinforced banking surveillance, pan-African operations are not attractive to many international groups. “Profits are low when compared to net banking income. And on the other hand, there is a high reputational risk when seeking to justify a presence,” says Olivier Noël, the general manager of First Bank of Nigeria’s (FBN) Paris branch. The big foreign banking groups are also struggling with the emergence ofa newretailbanking model. “The advent of mobile banking and fintech, and the competitors’ exploration of new territories such as Islamic banking, caught many of them off-guard. Moreover, risk analysis in Africa – with vast asymmetries in information – is confusing for them,” says Dhafer Saidane, a professor at France’s Skema Business School. Regulatory changes have also had an impact on international banks’ attitudes towards Africa. “With Basel III, which forces banks to strengthen their capital base, the big groups had to reduce their international activities, which were big consumers of their equity. That was seen in the withdrawal from business banking in Central Europe and a reduction in retail banking in Africa,” Saidane explains. INNOVATION PAYS

14.9% Barclays’ stake in Barclays Africa, down from 62.3% in March 2016 SOURCE: BARCLAYS

The rapid growth of pan-African groups in the past two decades is closely linked to this foreign withdrawal. “What we are seeing is a crowding-out of foreigners by local actors. In spite of the huge challenges they are facing, pan-African banks are constantly innovating,” says Saidane. These banks have proved their worth, progressively penetrating fields like trade financing that were once exclusive to foreign lenders. “Pan-African banks have foreign currency accounts – which was far from the case two decades ago – and they are perfectly able to meet their clients’

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import and export needs,” says FBN’s Noël. Political pressure further explains the lack of enthusiasm among certain big groups. In 2014, France’s largest bank, BNP Paribas, was hit with a record €6.5bn ($8.9bn) fine by US prosecutors for breaking sanctions on Sudan, Iran and Cuba. “Now a top lender that intends to take part in a huge commercial operation will have to undergo a series of assessments to make sure it doesn’t have a subsidiary in ‘red zone’ countries, which are often African,” Noël says. THE RISKS OF DE-RISKING

Similar constraints come with de-risking – where, under pressure from regulators, European and US financial institutions attempt to restrict questionable business relationships in order to fight terrorism and money laundering. This tends to impact correspondent banking activities. In 2013, Barclays cut off correspondent banking services to Somali money transfer company Dahabshiil, forcing Californiabased Merchant Bank to follow suit. This put an end to financial ties between the US and Somalia. In January 2017, German lender Deutsche Bank closed down all of National Bank of Kenya’s accounts due to suspected moneylaundering. “The international banks’ monitoring on suspicious transactions constantly forces local banks to choose between risk and returns,” says Noël. To avoid depending on Western groups for their correspondent banking, pan-African institutions such as Attijariwafa Bank and Afriland First Group have broadened their horizons, particularly with Chinese partners. Others have expanded outside Africa, starting operations in places like London, Dubai, Paris and Beijing. According to Ibrahima Diouf, managing director of Ecobank’s France-based subsidiary EBI: “These different subsidiaries also act as a correspondent bank for other lenders on the continent.” Omer Mbadi in Yaoundé for Jeune Afrique

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Short-selling South Africa A new group of analysts has South Africa’s corporates in their crosshairs. The relatively unknown US-based Viceroy Research, which looks to make money by predicting stock prices will fall, came out with a damning report about retail conglomerate Steinhoff in December, the day after the company announced it had found accounting irregularities. The company’s share price is down about 90% on its 2017 levels and South Africa’s Hawks investigators are due to dig into the activities of former chief executive Markus Jooste. Viceroy went after Capitec in January, saying the bank is not properly accounting for bad loans. Capitec’s stock price dropped by about a quarter, but the central bank says Capitec’s financial health is solid.

Economic brinkmanship Relations are chilly between the IMF and the government of Ernest Bai Koroma in Sierra Leone. The Freetown authorities signed up to an IMF deal in 2017, got the first tranche of the $224.4m deal and are now leaving the painful decisions to whoever wins the presidential election on 7 March, when Koroma steps down. The IMF froze payments this year due to a lack of progress after the Koroma team committed to eliminating fuel subsidies and getting rid of an exemption on rice duties. If the government does any of that before the election Koroma’s party will be more likely to lose the vote, as the country’s economy has been hurting.

Dogged by debt In Zimbabwe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government desperately wants to turn the economy around before elections are held this year. He talked smoothly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, but his economic plans have yet to impress investors. Harare needs to pay off its arrears to start getting back in the good books of the IMF and the World Bank, but the government does not have the money. Finance minister Patrick Chinamasa said the economy would grow by 6% by the end of the year – the IMF predicts 0.8% – but then left economists scratching their heads about an offer for the state to take on $500m in debt from collapsed steelmaker ZISCO to attract new investors.

One step forward... In January Nigeria’s House of Representatives finally passed the first part of the chronically delayed Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which seeks to improve the government’s management of the oil and gas sector. The government had to break the PIB into pieces in order to get it through both houses. However, while digging around in old legislation, the oil ministry discovered in December 2017 that Nigeria has lost an estimated $21bn in potential revenue. It had overlooked a 1993 law that allows the government to get hire fees for the sale of oil when the price is above $20 per barrel. Legislators are due to produce a report in early March to see if the government can get any of that money.

DOSSIER CONSTRUCTION

Egypt’s new The government is developing a new city estimated to cost $45bn in order to take the pressure off of Cairo, which is struggling under the weight of high population density and years of poor urban planning By Amira Salah-Ahmed in Cairo

ne of the main arguments made for the importance of extending Egypt’s capital is that Cairo was originally designed to accommodate 5 million people. Today, as one of the fastest-growing cities in the world, it has anywhere between 18-22 million people depending on the time of day, as hundreds of thousands of commuters flow in and out of the heart of Egypt. The government’s plan is to build a New Administrative Capital to serve as a link to Cairo and to make it a more

manageable city. The overpopulated capital is plagued by pollution, traffic and informal areas that have mushroomed around it. “The infrastructure of an old city at some point becomes a spaghetti mess, so untangling that infrastructure of roads and plans made decades ago for a population that has grown rapidly out of control becomes difficult. So you start pushing the boundaries out,” says Wael Ziada, the founder of investment company Zilla Holdings. Perhaps the most common description of the vision behind Egypt’s New Administrative Capital is that it will be connected tohistoricCairo,notareplacement for it. Ayman Ismail, who is the founding chairman of the board and currently serves as its adviser, says: “It’s not that we’re changing the capital of Egypt; it’s an extension of the capital of Egypt.” The project was

capital announced in 2015 and is being built on an expansive 71,400ha, which, as Ismail is quick to point out, is “the size of Singapore or the developed part of Dubai”. Positioning itself as a regional smart city and Egypt’s economic zone, the New Capital is expected to cost a total $45bn and to contribute $10bn to gross domestic product by 2030. It is located 30km from central Cairo and 40km from the centre of the Suez Canal Zone, itself another of the country’s mega-projects. PARKS AND SKYSCRAPERS

At a time when Egypt’s economy has been suffering, critics question whether the money going into the New Capital project is worthwhile. “Is it the best time to be building a city outside Cairo? What else could you have done?” asks Ziada. “Some ask whether we should have put this money

into the budget for education or health. But on the other hand, you want employment and you have high population density and poor infrastructure and services, so which should be done first?” The first phase of the New Administrative Capital comprises 16,800ha of land covering residential neighbourhoods, the Government Park, the City of Arts and Culture as well as an international airport, a financial district and an embassy district. Capital Residence, the first residential district, is being built on 420ha of land and includes 25,000 housing units currently under construction. Work has already begun on the second residential district. Government Park will be home to ministries and government bodies, which will all be utilising e-government services and should start moving in this year.

ACUD

Egypt’s New Capital is being built about 30km from Cairo on an expansive 71,400ha, with the first phase to include an international airport, financial district and government offices

Karim Shafei, chairman of Al IsmaeliaforRealEstateInvestment, is the powerhouse behind the Downtown Cairo Rehabilitation Project, through which historic buildings are restored and renovated. He says that the move to the New Administrative Capital could be both good and bad. “A lot of government functions drive people to come from outside of Cairo to get their services because it is so centralised,” he says, “so shouldn’t we decentralise instead of building another central system that is more powerful?” The financial district will include 20 skyscrapers, one of which is set to be the highest tower in Africa. Meanwhile, the City of Arts and Culture will be home to an opera house as well as theatres and cinemas. The overall project is designed to feature 15m² of green spaces per person, something that

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JOHANN ROUSSELOT/SIGNATURES

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is painfully missing from central Cairo and the surrounding districts. And, for the first time, underground tunnels are being built for water pipes and other infrastructure. The hope here is to facilitate maintenance work that would otherwise involve digging up the ground, an all too familiar sight in the heart of Egypt’s capital. The Administrative Capital for Urban Development, a company established to oversee the development of the city, is 51% owned by the New Urban Communities Authority and 49% owned by the army. The company was set up with a scope of focusing on developing the master plan, developing the vision and strategies for the city as well as awarding key contracts. Talks with some Emirati and Chinese investors have collapsed.

be completed for the new city is Al-Masa Hotel, an army-owned property with a touristic resort, a lake, a conference hall, as well as a mall. Oneofthebiggestchallengesthe New Capital will face is attracting at least a million people to relocate in the first phase. To do so, plans include making the city accessible by connecting it to central Cairo with a fast train that can make the trip in about 30 minutes. “With better planning, which is so far what I have seen in terms of [the New Capital] city’s spines and infrastructure, you will not only lower the population density of Cairo but you will also have an area where density is much better managed with sufficient

infrastructure,” Zilla Holdings’ Ziada says. It will also be vital to create enough economic activity for people to want to move to what is now considered significantly beyond the already far outskirts and satellite cities of central Cairo. Officials have highlighted the potential for industries ranging from education, medical tourism, cinema, textiles, call centres and outsourcing. To encourage investments into building the needed level of economic activity, Egypt will rely on a familiar model of free zones in some areas.

The New Capital would be accessible to central Cairo via a 30-minute fast train, as planners hope to attract at least a million people in the first phase of the project

PURCHASING POWER

The first residential district includes 25,000 housing units under construction

DANA SMILLIE/POLARIS/STARFACE

ATTRACTING TENANTS

Ismail was elected to serve as the founding chairman of the board and he was recently replaced with Ahmed Zaki Abdeen, a retired military general who formerly served as the minister for local development. The armed forces play a big role in the Egyptian economy. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is a former general and there has been an uptick in army-backed construction projects under his first term in office. One of the first projects to

When fully developed, the city should be able to accommodate 5-6 million people. “We are looking at ways to create incentives for people to move,” Ismail says. However, he recognises that socio-economic segments with less purchasing power may have difficulty finding homes if residential areas feature only the more upscale development tendencies of the major real estate companies that have built up East and West Cairo satellite cities. “In some of those segments, the private sector will not make money building those types of homes. This is where we lean on and work with the ministry of housing,” he adds. Asked whether the influx of new properties will affect Cairo’s thriving housing market, Ziada said that the effect would be minimal. “It will not flood the market. No matter how big the size, you have still a very sizeable market in the country. Egypt doesn’t have that much investment or savings pockets to offer other than banks […] so real estate as an investment asset class has been attracting most of these investments,” he explains. The Downtown Cairo Rehabilitation Project’s Shafei says that while the amount of investment being driven into the New Capital is huge, “I have not yet seen a global urban plan for Egypt as a whole that includes the 70% of Cairo that lives in slums or a comprehensive plan for formalising the informal areas, which has been a painful process.”

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Experience the Progress.

www.liebherr.com info.lex@liebherr.com www.facebook.com/LiebherrConstruction

KENYA

Is the bubble bursting?

After seemingly unstoppable growth, Kenya’s real-estate sector is showing signs of oversaturation, while affordable housing remains in woefully short supply

t first glance, Kenya’s property boom looks to be in full swing. Hanging over the gigantic Kiambu Mall – one of the newest commercial properties in the Nairobi area – a huge billboard trumpets the shops that have leased space. The anchor tenant of the mall is Choppies, a Botswana-based supermarket chain that has been making inroads in Kenya. Also committed to the mall, which was built at a cost of $8m, are Kenyan fast-food restaurants Pizza Planet and Java House. Today, many areas in Nairobi look like giant construction sites, with cranes towering over the skyline. The city is a major driver of Kenya’s real-estate sector, which has been growing steadily since the start of the century. Real estate comprised 13.8% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2016, up from 10.5% in 2000, according

to Kenya’s National Bureau of Statistics. Over the past decade alone, property prices in Kenya have grown five-fold, according to HassConsult, a realtor based in the country. It is not just malls that are sprouting up around the capital, but apartments, detached and semi-detached units, and bars and restaurants as well. But now, questions are being asked about whether it’s all been too much, too quickly. Empty housing blocks and office spaces are a common sight. According to property services company Broll Kenya, there are occupancy rates as low as 60% in some buildings in Upper Hill and Westlands. An oversaturation of malls is also causing concerns. In the past seven years, nearly 50 malls have been built in Nairobi, with 19 more under construction. The sector is showing signs of distress as new entrants find it

harder to attract tenants. “I think the market is in retreat,” says AlyKhan Satchu, a financial analyst based in Nairobi. “The question is: will it be a headlong retreat? So far, I don’t think that’s the case.” SKY HIGH… RENTS

95% Occupancy levels in well established malls such as The Junction and Sarit Centre in Nairobi SOURCE: KNIGHT FRANK KENYA

The property sector has enjoyed strong growth for over a decade, with some investors, such as Centum – which owns the Two Rivers project – and Tatu City posting a six-fold return. Some foreign investors are betting big on Nairobi’s property sector. Hass Petroleum and White Lotus broke ground in May 2017 on The Pinnacle, a twin-towered, multi-purpose building that is set to become Africa’s tallest, at a cost of $220m. But now there are fears that the cost of housing is simply too high for the majority of Nairobians. The rapid growth of prices in

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“But even for them, funding the built environment can crank up the loan book through revaluation to show the property is worth more than the liability.” One of the triggers for problems in the real estate sector could well be the country’s controversial interest rate cap, which sets a maximum loan charge at 4% above the central bank rate. Earlier this year, the Housing Finance Group, a listed mortgage lender, issued a profit warning citing “slow property transactions and the interest rates cap”. The cap has made lenders more risk averse.

THOMAS MUKOYA/REUTERS

SPOILS OF SPECULATION

Kenya’s property market has made home ownership an unreachable goal for many people. Despite the demand, many new units will remain empty. In some of Nairobi’s attractive neighbourhoods – such as Kileleshwa, Kilimani and Lavington – demand has reached a plateau. Savvy investors are rolling out more furnished apartments and are using the short-term rental website Airbnb to keep them occupied – often by foreigners. While casual observers would see empty apartments as a sign of a stagnating market, others argue that they are a way of people choosing to extend the speculative phase to wait for better prices. Others experts say that the sector is beginning to stagnate, but the prospects are not too worrying for developers. David Nahinga, chief executive officer of housing company Ujenzibora, tells The Africa Report: “Our market activity is too little, and there is no single player shouldering widespread risk.” Nahinga says it is the banks who are likely to be the most exposed: “The only player in the sector who should talk about a bubble should be the financier or the bank,” he says. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Developers have rushed to put up offices, malls and luxury condos in the Kenyan capital

The next frontier will be afford able housing for lower tiers of the market. The government has said that approximately 240,000 new housing units are needed every year to meet growing demand. Conservative figures show that only about 50,000 units come onto the market every year, driving up the deficit to more than 2m homes. But even those units are likely to be beyond the reach of many middle-class Kenyans due to the cascading effect of speculation in the market. The World Bank has reported that only about 10.2% of urban households in Kenya could afford the cheapest newly built house in 2015, which was estimated to cost about KSh 1.7m ($17,000). “Financing construction in Kenya is a costly affair and meeting even half the current demand for housing is a huge task,” says Barrack Obaga, a quantity surveyor and property analyst. According

Mortgage Loans Outstanding as % of GDP (2015/16)

South Africa Kenya Rwanda Nigeria Tanzania 0

SOURCE: HOFINET, CENTRE FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING FINANCE

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to Obaga, the main driver of property prices has been speculation based on the adage that property will always appreciate. But Satchu is optimistic about a recovery in the sector. “There’s a lot of supply coming on and the market just needs two years of fast growth to get us back to an equilibrium again,” he says. Affordable housing is one of the pillars of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s five-year development plan, which sets a target of 1m affordable housing units in the next five years. There are already issues that could hamper the success of such an ambitious project. Mortage provider the Housing Finance Company of Kenya, part of the listed Housing Finance Goup, found itself in the limelight after a labour dispute raised questions about insider lending and non-performing loans. Another potential problem would be the domino effect of the government boldly entering a sector where it has been a peripheral player and not providing sufficient backing to the private sector. It is more likely that credit will flow to the companies that undertake the project, since lending to public projects is often more attractive in risk-prone ecosystems. It would also strain the government’s already ballooning infrastructure budget. Reports indicate the government’s plan is to provide incentives for developers to build low-cost homes. While the government’s plans so far do not explicitly lay out the cost of a low-cost housing unit, it has already begun offering incentives to developers who innovate for that underserved part of the market. The first tender to build 8,000 houses on a 55-acre plot south of Nairobi was awarded to 35 firms in early January. Private companies will build the homes on government land and the government will provide public amenities. The results of the pilot phase will indicate whether the project can be scaled up. Morris Kiruga in Nairobi Additional reporting by Mark Anderson in Nairobi

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CONSTRUCTION

China’s CCCC takes the long view From port expansions to highways, the Asian conglomerate’s West African strategy is ultimately to morph from constructor to operator

BAUDOUIN MOUANDA FOR JA

hina Communications Construction Company (CCCC)’s footprint is expanding rapidly. With funding from state-owned Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) of China, the construction behemoth is spearheading infrastructure development along the Atlantic Coast, from large deep-sea ports and spectacular suspension bridges to underwater tunnels, new cities, artificial islands and railway lines. The multibillion-dollar conglomerate, which was established in December 2005after themerger of the China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) and China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), generated some $70bn in revenue in 2016 and secured a further $40bn in new contracts. “In Africa, it’s in Ethiopia that CCCC has had the most ongoing projects to date, and this is where our expansion has been the most successful,” says Changmiao Zha, deputy general manager of CCCC. Since 2008, the Chinese giant has been involved in a long line of projects totalling more than $2.4bn, with more than $3.6bn in ongoing work. The company is currently involved in the Tema port expansion project in Ghana. In July 2017 its subsidiary CHEC was part of the consortium – with France’s Bolloré and CMA CGM – awarded a 25-year contract for the operation of the deepwater container terminal at Kribi in Cameroon. This was after being selected for the first and second phases of the port construction. Other projects are under way in Gabon and Senegal, where CRBC is scheduled to complete

The illuminated Pont du 15 Août 1960 in Brazzaville, Congo, engineered and built by CRBC

the two-year construction of the Thiès-Touba toll highway this year. In Côte d’Ivoire, CHEC is spearheading a major expansion project at the Port of Abidjan. The project will broaden and deepen the Vridi Canal – the port’s main entry passage – to enable handling larger vessels. The Ivorian authorities are pressing the company to complete the work this year, though only 40% is done to date. Of the total 860bn CFA francs ($1.6bn) required for the project, $560bn has been loaned by China’s Eximbank. WATCHING AND WAITING

$70bn Revenue generated by China’s CCCC in 2016 SOURCE: CCCC

According to Qingshan Liang, CCCC’s deputy general manager for West and Central Africa, road construction forms the next stage of its Africa development: “The overland transportationinfrastructure in the region is not complete and air transport is still a bit expensive. So to open up the way to prosperity we first have to build roads and railways.” Zha explains further that the group’s strategy is ultimately to move from its “role as a constructor to that of an investor, developer and operator”. Thierry Pairault, a ChinaAfrica specialist at France’s Centre National de la Recherche

Scientifique, says CCCC is not leapfrogging its way there: “For them, it is more of a plan to position themselves at a certain point in the chain that enables them to better advance their interests”. This approach is at odds with the ‘steamroller’ image often associated with major Chinese companies. With their port projects, Pairault says, “they are acquiring an observation post to get advance knowledge of what logistical needs the port will generate [such as a port extension or railway] and be the first to bid for tenders. They will then offer solutions to local governments, providing feasibility studies, often free of charge.” CCCC’s Africa success has been tainted by financial problems in countries like Algeria, where work on the new El Hamdania port project has come to a standstill. Beijing has reduced its funding to African states, aware that under their current financial difficulties not all loans will be repaid. But if all else fails, the publicly traded company can always fall back on the steady flow of Eximbank’s funds to strengthen its growth in African markets. Rémy Darras in Beijing for Jeune Afrique. Additional reporting by Baudelaire Mieu in Abidjan

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FOTOTALA KING MASSASSY

PHOTO

Bamako

From the Anarchie productive series (2017) by Fototala King Massassy. Born in Côte d’Ivoire, he was a hip-hop artist before turning to photography in 2007. His studio photographs show Malians as youthful, smiling and confident, despite everything.

Rencontres de Bamako, 2 December 2017 to 31 January 2018

The photography biennale returned to its full glory in the Malian capital. In a burst of imagination, ‘Afrotopia’ deconstructed dreams of a future and constructed new hopes for the continent By Alison Culliford

shines

hotography has long had a special place in Bamako’s heart. From the family-run studios and black and white prints of Malick Sidibé and Seydou Keita came the now world-famous images of African pride, creativity and exuberance. Mali was independent, and the youth was on fire! That optimisim endured, even through the darkest days of 2012, when sharia law was imposed and artistic expression suppressed, followed by political turmoil and a terrorist attack on a hotel in November 2015. At that time the Rencontres de Bamako African photography biennale was in the midst of its two-month run after a four-year hiatus, bringing documentary images and reflections on recent events to dance tentatively side-by-side under the theme of ‘Telling Time’. Two years on, Bamako has rewoven its cultural fabric, and there was a new zest, colour and a fantasy element to the 11th biennale, from 2 December 2017 to 31 January 2018. Contemporary Malian photographers Helene Jayet and Fotolala King Massassy joined photographers from all over Africa to imagine their ‘Afrotopia’. While their work sometimes comments on the disjunct between hopes before independence and the reality, through their images, a kaleidoscope of the present, optimism still manifests in all the colours of the continent.

ATHI-PATRA RUGA

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RAHIMA GAMBO

Miss Azania, Exile is Waiting (2015) by Athi-Patra Ruga. The South African artist, who adopts personas and creates wildly textural tapestries as part of his work, has taken as his own the myth of Azania – an African utopia imagined in the apartheid era – to comment on what is and what might have been.

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DELIO JASSE

ART & LIFE 85

Angolan photographer Délio Jasse resurrects old photographic printing techniques such as the cyanotype or screen printing, combining them with images that are also outmoded. The Lost Chapter Nampula-1963 delves into the album of a Portuguese family living in Mozambique… in which Mozambicans seldom appear.

Education Is Forbidden (2015) by Rahima Gambo. Born in London and based in Abuja, Nigeria, Gambo was a 2014 Magnum Foundation Fellow and has since worked on long-term visual projects such as this series on schoolgirls in a region affected by Boko Haram.

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JOANA CHOUMALI

Joana Choumali, whose work has featured in The Africa Report, was born in Cocody, Côte d’Ivoire. Her series Ça va aller consists of photographs taken in Grand-Bassam after the beach gun attack of March 2016, printed on canvas then embroidered. M A R C H 2 018

86 ART & LIFE

Fela and the Kalakuta Queens returns to the stage in April

AL LATÎF Until 10 Mar. CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA Standard Bank art prize winner Igshaan Adams explores Sufi mysticism. blankprojects.com

WASHINGTON DC | US Ethiopian-born Abel Tilahun takes the body as basis for a journey through the human experience. american.edu/cas/museum

LIEUX Until 15 Mar. RABAT | MOROCCO Appartement 22 becomes an echo chamber in Ismaïl Bahri’s video installation. appartement22.com

HARMATTAN TALES Until 17 Mar.

COURTESY OF THE ARTIST AND ADDIS FINE ART

WASHINGTON DC | US Zohra Opoku considers the narratives of Muslim women navigating Accra. marianeibrahim.com

FLOATING CITIES/ DETACHED PERCEPTIONS Until 31 Mar. ADDIS ABABA | ETHIOPIA Urban life and fantasy are blended in Addis Gezehagn’s paintings. addisfineart.com

BAP PRODUCTIONS

VITAL SIGNS Until 11 Mar.

Theatre New rhythm in Lagos Once the sleepy backwater of Nigeria’s cultural space, contemporary theatre is staking its claim in the arts scene

very holiday season, the Lagos enterof The Lion and the Jewel, the classic play by tainment scene goes into overdrive. Wole Soyinka. Crown Troupe is also part Concerts, festivals, art exhibitions, of the regular resident theatre initiative end-of-year parties and award ceremonies launched in mid-2017 at Freedom Park, a compete for media coverage and the attention storied memorial and cultural centre reof moneyed patrons. But this was the first time claimed from a colonial era prison. a stage musical caused such a buzz! Ending It isn’t only the comfy Lagos crowd that is its debut run in mid-January, Fela and the catching theatre fever. Abuja and Calabar are Kalakuta Queens focuses on the life of the regular ports of call for productions looking to move beyond the centre of excellence. late Afrobeat pioneer Fela Anikulapo Kuti Austen-Peters scored another touchdown and his conflicted but enduring relationship with the band of women who nurtured and in 2016 when her Wakaa!, a musical about inspired his craft, sang back-up for him, fed his ego, shared his bed and Beyond Lagos, Abuja and became a central part of his artistry. Calabar are also regular ports Directed by Bolanle Austen-Peters, with musician Laitan Adeniji as Fela of call for local productions and Nollywood superstars Kunle reaching for the Nigerian dream, became the Afolayan and Osas Ajibade in supporting first local production to be staged in London’s roles, Fela and the Kalakuta Queens was West End. And Hear Word! Naija Woman Talk initially billed to play 18 shows at the new True, featuring a series of explosive dance Terra Kulture arena. Due to popular demand and performance monologues by female the show returns in April. Fela and the Kalakuta Queens benefits from actors, will be returning to the American a resurgence in the contemporary theatre Repertory Theater in the US this year for that started a little over a decade ago, when another run. The week-long Lagos Theatre Austen-Peters set up Terra Kulture, an arts Festival created by the British Council in hub that easily took over from the national 2013, with its special focus on site-specific productions, has led the charge on presenting theatre, Lagos, as the foremost exhibition performing arts from Nigeria and the UK space in the country. More than a hundred in Lagos. The festival attracts veterans and productions later, Terra Kulture has expanded to accommodate a 400-seat state-of-the-art newcomers alike and has served as a breeding theatre. In January, Segun Adefila’s Crown ground for numerous performers. Wilfred Okiche in Lagos Troupe of Africa staged a one-off production THE AFRICA REPORT

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ART & LIFE 87

Tourism Romantic heights meet ancient sites Travelling in Egypt has been a mission of selfdiscovery and heritage for one couple promoting its hidden gems

hen a young couple met for the first time in 2012, rather than spend their first date doing the usual dinner and movie they decided to break with tradition. “We wanted to discover each other in a different way,” Omar Attia says. “So we decided that our mutual passion for sightseeing is what is going to bond us and give us a chance to explore things and places together. And that is how we fell in love.” On that first date they went to Cairo Tower, took a horse and carriage and ended the night with a falouka cruise on the Nile at sunset. But in the past six years Attia and his now wife Dalia El Debaiky’s adventures have taken them far beyond the tourist track.

For Attia, one of the most iconic places they visited was the Western Desert, west of the river Nile stretching to the Libyan border, famous for its sparkling crystal mountain. It hadoriginallybeenariverthat has since dried up, and the crystals were formed by the sea salt’s reaction to the sun. The couple’s travels go against the grain of mainstream culture and are seen as frivolous and a waste of

money by many in Egypt, but they have found the experience invaluable. “Walking through the crystals in day time … the grandeur of sleeping at night with nothing to stare at but the stars blanketing the sky was therapeutic,” Attia says. The two are currently documenting their experiences in a series of three bookstitled – like their popular social media pages – Around Egypt in

60 Days, which will include photo stories of the people they met. With tourism being one of the country’s main earners, they even hope the books will be included in the national school curriculum. “We have one-third of the world’s monuments in Luxor alone; how come we do not teach tourism as a subject at schools?” Attia says. Heba Farouk Mahfouz in Cairo

Love Does Not Win Elections Ayisha Osori Narrative Landscape Press

In 2014, lawyer and political columnist Ayisha Osori ran for the House of Representatives on the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) ticket. This memoir, a tour de force, recounts her unsuccessful bid to win office as a legislator of the federal republic. Money is a recurring theme. It is stuffed into envelopes, pressed into the hands of supporters and delegates and used to “secure” documents from party offices. The need to be aligned with higher powers is also an enduring concern. The book slices open the underbelly of the electoral process in Nigeria with candour and in intimate detail. What lies within is messy. Any reader familiar with Nigerian elections might have already had suspicions of the intricate web THE AFRICA REPORT

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of bribes, shelved dignity, dirty money and forgotten consciences political aspirants have to navigate to acquire the riches of elected office. Its reveal is timely as Nigeria approaches another season of elections in early 2019. But the memoir is not all doom. Osori clears the muddy waters with comic relief and by burning bridges. In one passage she says: “I knew going to see Dr. Kema Chikwe, the PDP Women Leader would be as useful as sunscreen on a black goat.” Dr. Chikwe is a former minister of aviation and still well respected in some political circles. Osori did not hit the bull’s eye on this electoral count, but clearly she learned to take aim. Ayodeji Rotinwa

TWITTER TRENDS #SHITHOLE

Adekunle Gold

When US President Donald Trump called Africa a #shithole African leaders came under fire on Twitter.

Born into blue blood and climbing into African music royalty, the Nigerian highlife and folk musician is finishing his second album About 30 ahead of the music festival season

@SalCaraale

The African union when there is slavery in Libya, stolen elections & half a century-long dictatorships VS when Trump says "shithole"

What one word describes your next album?

Maybe not a word but a phrase: “Such is life.”

If you became president today, what would be your first decision? TWITTER

Constant power supply! It affects business, and business helps a country thrive, so we definitely need power.

Where are you hanging out these days?

Eye of the Needle @MukelaniDimba

In the studio. It’s the only place I get to work and play.

The African Union wants Trump to apologise for calling the continent a shithole. So what happens if he refuses to apologise? I’ll listen on the radio.

What city feels most like home to you?

Any city where I could own a beachfront property.

Your golden microphone aside, what are your three most prized possessions?

Muthui Mkenya @MuthuiMkenya

What is your favourite sports team – and player?

Manchester United. King CR7 (Cristiano Ronaldo).

Which famous deceased people would you like to bring back from the dead for a chat? Fela Kuti, especially at a time like this in our country. He was fearless, and his opinions were astute.

What are your guilty pleasures?

Fifa and movies. I love sappy movies like Titanic, The Notebook, One Tree Hill. Vampire movies too.

Interview by Eromo Egbejule

My voice, my time, and the last thing – if I told you, I’d have to kill you.

One day after being sworn in, George Weah, names his cabinet. In Shithole Kenya, a decision has yet to be made months after the swearing in. Is Jubilee serious?!!! suhudoo @AlhasaanMataaya

Ghana is really a shithole I base this on the reason that our Veep don’t even trust his health on the hands of Drs here on our continent but rather travel to London, OK the poor should wallow in pain and trust their health on our Dr’s? Tendai Kwari @tendaikwari

I am shocked that some black brothers and sisters are in sync with this racist Trump. Well, my brother and sister, if you accept that your home country is a shit hole..that makes you the shit in the hole. THE AFRICA REPORT

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ART & LIFE 89

ALL PICTURES BY JOHN WARBURTON LEE/HEMIS.FR

TRAVEL KENYA

Sweet breezes, take me to Lamu With its slow living, Swahili traditions and ocean views, the Lamu archipelago is one of Kenya’s most relaxing getaways

pproached from the air, Lamu If you’re not on an organised tour, reveals itself through a break the sailors around the jetty on Manda in the thick clouds, an island Island or arriving at Lamu can connect you to local guides. dotted amidst a cluster of others. Our host organised a sail on the The archipelago, off the north coast of Kenya, was settled by the Swahili Indian Ocean, starting at sunset and people as early as the 14th century, going into the night, slowly moving with Lamu Town their centre. The through the ocean under the stars before we got out for a swim. airport is on Manda Island, a After docking on Manda, 15-minute speedboat trip KENYA on a deserted beach you away from Lamu Island. can build a bonfire and On one corner Lamu enjoy the most luxuriof Lamu Town is a ous seafood BBQ this collection of hotels side of the ocean. and houses in Shela. Lamu During the Lamu Though it has a less archipelago historic feel than Lamu Cultural Festival in Town, with most of the November the small 5 km structures being relatively streets downtown are filled with people performing different new, this is the perfect place to cultural dances. Keep an eye out for stay if you want to look out at the ocean. To plan your trip you need a local the old men dressed in kanzus, tradiwho knows the ins and outs of the town tional East African robes, performing and its people. On the surface, Lamu a slow-moving dance and raising their walking sticks to the sky. is a sleepy place where nothing much happens. But with the right guide, Eventually the dhow race will start you will find its many hidden gems. and you will get a view of the ocean THE AFRICA REPORT

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filled with low boats with long sails competing against each other. Crew members hang precariously along the sides of the boats as they try to outmanoeuvre their opponents to get first position. Back in Shela, on an early morning walk, allow yourself time to pick up a traditional Swahili breakfast of mahamri, a sweet, coconutty, doughnut-like snack, best eaten with chickpeas cooked in coconut milk, or bhajia, a finger food of potato and vegetable fried in batter. You can walk barefoot to the beach to sit on the sand and wait for the sun to show up before taking a dip in the ocean. It’s easy to go to Lamu, with its charming historic buildings, beautiful views of the ocean and welcoming locals, but saying goodbye is another matter. As your flight rises after takeoff, have a look through the window to catch a pod of dolphins leaping across the ocean. This is why the locals say Lamu Tamu: Lamu is sweet. Aisha Ali in Lamu

group Kaloum Loele, and then with the National Theatre, playing doundou, gongoma and bolon. I founded a workshop and began making instruments by day, from 8am to 5pm, and rehearsing and playing music at night. I had the chance to come to France in 2003 with my djembé. Since then I’ve been back and forth participating in and organising festivals, workshops and concerts in both countries, as well as in other places around the world.

VINCENT FOURNIER/JA

RHYTHM IN CONTEXT

Drum line Percussionist Didi Keita followed his destiny and now teaches drumming in Paris and Guinea, imparting not just the rhythms but their stories and meaning

grew up in Conakry, Guinea, my mother Senegalese and my father Guinean. Guinea is a very musical country and when I was about six years old I started playing around on metal boxes and various objects. When I was 12 I started learning from master Lansana Dioubaté and soon knew that music was my destiny. He initiated me to the djembé and everything I do today is thanks to him.

Lansana was from a family of artists. In contrast, I was the first musician in my family. I wasn’t meant to be a musician with the name Keita, and my father wasn’t happy with my decision. Luckily my mother encouraged me to follow my passion. Without her I would now probably be in an office somewhere, not following my true path. When I was 20, music became my profession. I worked with the

Music is my purpose and I love teaching it. But I’m not just teaching the rhythms; I teach the stories behind the rhythms and their meanings. My master taught me this: Every rhythm has its story and significance. If you dance you need to know why you dance, or if you cook it’s because you’re hungry; it has a purpose. Rhythm is like that; it is used for a specific occasion. I have received warm hospitality in France and learned French culture, and so one of my greatest pleasures is to introduce my international students to Guinea. I organise a few workshops in Dubréka each year, not for my commercial gain but because sharing my culture makes me extremely happy. The students discover local musicians and dancers as well as the beaches, the food and the people. They begin to understand the rhythms in context. Today I join my fellow Guinean artists to present our culture to the world. We’re not at all government-funded so we mostly finance and produce ourselves. I’ll continue to push my projects as long as I can. I would love to become an ambassador for Guinean artists. My dream is to have funded music and dance schools, rehearsal spaces, festivals and more workshops and concerts in Guinea to nourish and create work for all the talent that exists. God willing, I will be able to help create more opportunities. Interview by Ruby Boukabou THE AFRICA REPORT

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debates Tough talk on development

KIGALI, RWANDA 27th April 2018

Is the African Union a necessity?

Be part of the debate! theafricareport.com/tar-debates.html

How to attend: Alison Kingsley-Hall, a.kingsley-hall@theafricareport.com To become a sponsor: advertising@theafricareport.com

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