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A S U P P L E M E NT T O T HE AFR I CA R E PO R T N°90

WHO’S WHO in African finance

Not to be sold separately


editorial

THE AFRICA REPORT | MONEY SUPPLEMENT MAY 2017

CONTENTS COVER CREDITS: ENRIQUE PARDO; ELMOND-JIYANE; STEFFEN JAFFE/IMF; JOHN BOMPENGO FORJA; MIKE HUTCHINGS/REUTERS; MEGAPIX; BRUNO LEVY/CEO FORUM; VINCENT BLOCQUAUX;MOSMWANIKI; ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

BY NIC CHOLAS NORBROOK

Liq quid refreshment

03 EDITORIAL Liquid refreshment 06 BRIEFING From South Africa’s new finance minister to the new burst of private-equity money entering the continent

S

10 INTERVIEW Andrew Alli, CEO of the African Finance Corporation ‘African power facilities aren’t making money’ 12 WHO’S WHO The brightest, best, fastest to market and quickest to the deal: Our list of the movers and shakers in African finance today 24 TOP 100 BANKS Africa’s leading financial institutions ranked by turnover 26 INTERVIEW Elsie Kanza, Head of Africa, World Economic Forum The leading debates being held at the World Economic Forum on Africa in Durban this May

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MONEY

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11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Elsie Kanza Yunus Carrim Kemi Adeosun Andrew Alli Benson Wareigi Celestin Mukeba Ipeleng Mkhari Henry Rotich Diane Karusisi

10 Marlon Chigwende 11 Lance Mambondiani 12 Ken Njoroge 13 Lamin Manjang 14 Minoush Abdel-Meguid 15 Richard Byarugaba 16 Mohamed El Kettani 17 Kayode Akinola 18 Said Ibrahimi 19 Sola David-Borha 20 Malusi Gigaba 21 Yasaman Hadjibashi 22 Segun Agbaje

itting in an airless room underneath the Paris headquarters of France’s export promotion centre, South Africa’s trade and industry minister Rob Davies bemoans the lack of loans available for local com­ panies. “In our study, we found that the amount of private bank credit for companies in productive sectors of the economy was under 2%,” says Davies. “And it was the only segment that was shrinking.” There is a credit drought in Africa, and the grass is turning yellow under­ foot. Not for big project­finance ven­ tures, such as infrastructure projects, but for what Davies calls productive ventures – companies active in man­ ufacturing or agriculture. These are more difficult sectors, with lower profit margins and higher barriers to entry than, say, trading. Are the banks to blame? Surely it is only sensible self­interest that keeps African banks lending to those who will be a sure bet, like funding governments or blue­chip clients. It is fashionable to claim that financial technology is a silver bul­ let. And certainly, if you are a trader, you have options. Safaricom, for example, has been so meticulous in its record­keeping for day trad­ ers in Kenya that it now lends a few hundred dollars in the morn­ ing to be paid back that evening. Because while the trader may not have a formal­sector bank account or address, they have histories of positive cashflow, which can serve

as a form of collateral. Zimbabwe, at another level of desperation, is reaching for more basic forms of financial innovation – allowing cattle to serve as collateral. One solution to the credit drought is to change the ecosys­ tem in which the banks swim. That means changing their incentives. For enthusiasts of the develop­ mental state – such as Davies – this means either more state­led bank lending to industry or more demanding regulation, for example. But Davies is also keen on the idea of improving the supply of good and bankable entrepreneurs, and his min­ istry has run a competition to find black industrialists with successful small businesses who can be trained, given advice on business plans and connected with partners higher up in their sectors. This is a less interventionist way of solving the credit drought but it remains a water pistol compared to the great demand for credit. With the ministry of trade and industry’s competition, there will be only 100 winners in a South African economy where unemployment runs at more than 25%. Nigeria is also trying to use state levers to fix the prob­ lem, but with a(nother) development bank to issue subsidised loans for commercial banks to on­lend to small businesses. Pragmatism will dictate what works. African busi­ nesses need the rain. ●

A GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE PUBLICATION - 57-BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE - TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 WWW.THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED PUBLISHER DANIELLE BEN YAHMED EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER JÉRÔME MILLAN PUBLISHER@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM MARKETING AND DEVELOPMENT ALISON KINGSLEY-HALL ● EDITOR IN CHIEF PATRICK SMITH MANAGING EDITOR NICHOLAS NORBROOK EDITORIAL@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ASSOCIATE EDITOR MARSHALL VAN VALEN EDITORIAL ASSISTANT OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI SUB-EDITORS ALISON CULLIFORD, ERIN CONROY PROOFREADING KATHLEEN GRAY ● ART DIRECTOR MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER), JEAN-PHILIPPE GAUTHIER, SYDONIE GHAYEB, CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) PHOTOGRAPHY PIERANGELIQUE SCHOULER ● SALES SANDRA DROUET TEL: (33) 1 44 30 18 07 – FAX: (33) 1 45 20 09 67 SALES@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● ADVERTISING DIFCOM INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY ADVERTISING@THEAFRICAREPORT.COM ● PRINTER SIEP 77 – FRANCE S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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Partnership is the start of something more. The trust we’ve built across Africa forms the core of all our relationships, making our presence truly felt. Let us be your partner for growth on this continent we call home. standardbank.com/CIBinsights

Authorised financial services and registered credit provider (NCRCP15). The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited (Reg. No. 1962/000738/06). Moving Forward is a trademark of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited. SBSA 263708 04/17.


“Partnerships?”

“Communities.”


briefing Zuma loyalist Malusi Gigaba will have an upward struggle to reassure the nation’s creditors

WALDO SWIEGERS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

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SOUTH AFRICA

A radically transformed status

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he arrival of a close acolyte of President Jacob Zuma in the Treasury on 31 March was greeted by markets and ratings agencies alike as a sign that the patronage and ‘state capture’ problems the country face are set to deepen. One of Malusi Gigaba’s first acts was to set the wheels of the nuclear power procurement back in motion – something that the ejected finance minister Pravin Gordhan argued was too costly and unnecessary. On top of that, it has emerged that Gigaba spends social time with members of the Gupta family, who were accused – in a report entitled ‘State Capture’, by former public protector Thuli Madonsela – of having a corrupt relationship with Zuma. So what does this mean for South Africa’s financial sector and broader economic health? One initial target may be the banks in South Africa, which closed the Guptas’ accounts over concerns about corruption. One option for the Guptas would be to push to reopen the case to acquire Habib Overseas

Bank, which was denied by Gordhan through the courts on his last day at work. Vardospan Limited, the company that attempted to purchase Habib Bank, is part-owned by Salim Essa, an ally of the Guptas. And two of the bank’s executives are also part of Trillian, a company named by Madonsela’s report. Gigaba had his first tough overseas assignment at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meeting, where he had to convince delegates that he is the man to pull the national finances out of their slump. The fact that he left for Washington DC without business and labour leaders by his side speaks volumes. Gigaba was quick to distance himself from the comments of his advisor Chris Malikane, who is keen to promote nationalisations of big banks and the mining sector. With Moody’s – the last rating agency to keep South Africa’s debt above junk level – due to make itself known in the next few weeks, one can see why he did. Gigaba, too, has rolled out revolutionary rhetoric, saying in his first days in office:

“For too long, there has been a narrative or perception around Treasury that it belongs primarily and exclusively to ‘orthodox’ economists, big business, powerful interests and international investors. With respect, this is a people’s government.” Yet this is the rationale that Zuma is picking as the political endgame draws nigh: presenting ‘radical economic transformation’ as something that only he can deliver on and focusing South Africans’ resentment on inequities in black land and corporate holdings rather than on the graft-laden problems of his administration. It may help him in his short-term political battles, but is it a winning strategy for the country? And with the governing African National Congress already in the throes of competition to replace Zuma in 2019 – largely between former African Union Commission chair Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa – how much will the President be able to achieve in the time that he has left? ●

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M ONEY 7

MORTGAGES

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

A December 2016 World Bank study urged governments to improve mortgage finance markets, saying this could help fight inequality and strengthen economic growth. South Africa and Namibia are the only SSA countries where outstanding mortgages are more than 20% of GDP.

The ratio of mortgage debt to gross domestic product (GDP) in Africa is 3%, compared to 70% in developed countries.

PRIVATE EQUITY

A glass half full Africa-focused private-equity funds raised about $2bn in 2016 and signed $4bn in deals, according to the African Venture Capital Association. That is far from the more than $8bn in deals signed in 2014, but it does represent a key injection of capital into African companies amidst the recent economic downturn.

14% 27%

“The law [limiting interest rates on loans] is not working as it was intended […]. Banks are hurting, clients are hurting, and, of course, the impact that it’s having on gross domestic product is across the board. Everybody is negatively impacted” Lamin Manjang, chief executive officer of Standard Chartered Bank Kenya, is calling on the Kenyan government to rethink its policies.

Africa-based privateequity deals, 2010-16

12%

25%

GREG SMOLONSKI/SKOLL FOUNDATION

SOURCE: WORLD BANK

Lagging behind

(% of total deals and % of total deal value over the period)

North Africa

% of deals % of values

18% West Africa

8%

5% 1%

39%

Central Africa

East Africa

30%

SOURCE: AVCA; PREQIN

15%

7% Southern Africa

Multi region S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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“One of the things we will never go back to is the bad old days where countries were in debt crises […]. Another thing that we will never go back to is the bad old days when the World Bank and other organisations told countries what to do. We don’t do that any more” World Bank president Jim Yong Kim told governments that his organisation is changing its approach to Africa.


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PEOPLE

INTERVIEW

Andrew Alli

Chief executive, Africa Finance Corporation

African power facilities aren’t making money The AFC’s chief executive says that governments should hand over to the private sector in several domains and that project developers need to up their game to meet Africa’s vast infrastructure deficit

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t is the very heart of the African development story: financing the infrastructure on which future industrial growth will be built. And it remains as tough today as it ever was. Andrew Alli, chief executive of the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC), is not a classic corporate swashbuckler, braying about past conquests and future glory. His is a patient, strategic game. Alli has dragged the AFC from its unsteady early days into a maker of benchmarks for continental infrastructure projects by pulling in much-needed global capital into Africa to develop power plants, bridges and toll roads. The AFC counts African governments as its members and is owned by a group of African financial institutions and other investors. But this capital has largely been in dollars. And given the volatility of African currencies, this creates problems, admits Alli. He points to the $50bn or so a year in infrastructure projects that have been done in Africa over the decade. “We have a currency mismatch of around $500bn. That’s unsustainable.” One clear example today is the power industry in Nigeria. Several new electricity companies cannot afford to pay for gas – sold in dollars – to run power stations. “It

was good to get the industry going,” says Alli of the recent reform in the sector, “but we now need to look at pricing gas in naira.” Building local pools of capital is necessary, says Alli. While Nigeria may seem to have some on tap – think pension funds sitting on more than $30bn in assets – Alli adds that “Nigeria’s savings-togross domestic product (GDP) ratio is 15%, compared to China’s at well over 50-60% during its boom.” WAITING FOR THE MONEY Across Africa, that figure averages closer to 30%, but then often that absolute number is small. Thirty per cent of Ghana’s GDP would yield just $11bn. The regionalisation of financial markets is the cure, says Alli, “which is easier said than done of course, but Botswana for example does have too much capital to deploy at home.” And there is plenty of global capital out there, too. In fact, the continent’s cruellest lack is in bankable projects. That is financier jargon for a project which has had all the development work done – market surveys, impact assessments, agreements struck with key clients in the case of something like a power station – and is just waiting for the money. “That’s why we have launched the Africa Pro-

A FINANCIER’S FINANCIER 1995 Earned a master’s in business administration from France’s INSEAD 1996 Joined the International Finance Corporation June 2008 Named to the board of Guaranty Trust Bank November 2008 Became chief executive of the Africa Finance Corporation

ject Developers Initiative (APDI),” says Alli. The AFC has been in the project development game for the past decade, with notable recent successes being the Kpone power plant in Ghana, which is shortly due to become operational. But, with so much work to be done to meet Africa’s yawning infrastructure deficit, the AFC wants to bring other developers under one roof. “It’s a mixture of people – project developers, development finance institutions, commercial financiers, equity financiers, lawyers,” says Alli. “We want to create common standards so that everyone has an idea of what a bankable project will look like – bankable for equity investors, but also the development banks, who are the initial financiers, and ultimately the ones who make them bankable for those large pools of capital like offshore funds and pension funds.”

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PEOPLE

M ONEY 11

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

company in China, we were told that the annual additions to the Chinese grid were equivalent to Spain in terms of megawatts,” recalls Alli. “But China is one big market, the largest economy in the world. Their decision-making process is different to some of our African markets. Much as we do marvel, we do understand what the implications are. We do understand that our legislators are trying to balance and juggle many things.”

While the private sector can no doubt do more, Alli argues that governments could help by releasing projects into the private sector. “Some infrastructure government needs to do – the long road out into the agricultural areas to help farmers get goods. You are never going to toll that road, and even if youdoyouwon’tgetmuchmoney.”

of debt and are not bankable by international standards.” Much of the time setting up power projects is spent on how to mitigate the risk of the utility or off-taker defaulting on payments. “It shouldn’t be that way,” says Alli. “People have to resort to expensive guarantees. Standby

A world-class industrial policy won’t work if the business environment is poor

EXPENSIVE GUARANTEES But there are many bigger roads and with more traffic that could be commercialised, Alli says. That would then free up capital for projects that will never be bankable – like those critical agricultural roads. Governments can also really look at how to make their power utilities more financially sustainable. “The majority of power facilities in Africa are not making money. [They have] high levels S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

facilities, multilateral facilities – these all add time, complexity and costs.” He points to Umeme in Uganda and Kenya and Eskom in South Africa as examples to follow in this regard. Does he ever compare notes with colleagues in China and wonder at their speed of execution? “When we visited a power •

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POWER AFRICA Alli says that he would rather not see the kind of strong industrial policy that has brought China its developmental successes, saying there are other low-hanging fruit to be picked first. “Even if you have world-class industrial policy, with a poor business environment, it isn’t going to work.” Having helped birth the APDI to accelerate the number of infrastructure deals closed each year on the continent, Alli says he wants to attract the really big money: global pension funds. Many of these much-courted funds are in search for higher yields after years of quantitative easing at home. But while African infrastructure might be a good match, there remains the problem of scale and deal size. Big pension funds are uninterested in buying a single power plant, preferring a diversified bundle. “That’s why we created the Power Africa company in Paris,” says Alli, referring to a $3.3bn joint venture between the AFC and an infrastructure fund run by South Africa’s Harith General Partners. “And we are looking at similar opportunities.” The combined entity brings together wind farms in Kenya and power stations in Ghana, with more than 1,500MW in installed or under-construction capacity. “It’s the nucleus of a serious pan-African infrastructure company,” says Alli. “Once the company gets some serious scale, then it would become accessible to the pension funds. That’s really the long-term idea.” ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook


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By Mark Anderson, Nicholas Norbrook, Oheneba Ama Nti Osei, Crystal Orderson and Marshall Van Valen

he old truism about Africa needing to trade with itself will mean nothing until there are strong counterparties in different African countries willing to take on risk. That is starting to happen. In this year’s edition of Money, The Africa Report’s editorial team was struck by how many of the new faces emerging in the world of finance have had previous experience in other African countries and are pushing cross-border deals. This goes for the larger heavyweight banks like Attijariwafa, which is starting to shake off its reluctance to go beyond Francophone boundaries and head into markets like Egypt’s. But it is also seen in nimble private-equity outfits where partners who have become familiar with Southern Africa are now setting up shop in East Africa – which can only create an interesting pipeline of integration-boosting deals. Likewise, with financial technology becoming a serious concern for established banks, a new generation of tech-savvy bankers are finding ways to carve out space in the grey area between telecoms and financial services that could be useful across different markets. Where Africa could have more dynamism is in its capital markets. Still too illiquid and too fragmented to really attract serious capital flows, a move towards regional bourses makes sense in many cases. The economic slowdown and the pinch felt by commodity exporters has left its mark on Africa’s financial sector. Several big, global private-equity shops have warehoused their African operations until the good times return again. But this has had a happy side-effect: with valuations trending down, there are an increasing number of bargains out there. Expect some serious dealmaking in the months ahead. ● S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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GUARANTEE TRUST BANK

Segun Agbaje Riding out the storm

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Guarantee Trust Bank (GTBank) continues to grow and was the fifth-largest Nigerian bank in The Africa Report’s 2016 Top 100 banks ranking (see page 24). While nearly every bank is creating a mobile payments platform, not all of them are created equal. Speaking at the annual investors conference, GTBank chief executive Segun Agbaje said that after a year, the bank’s 737 platform had racked up over N1trn ($3.3bn) worth of transactions. The bank is also trumpeting the output from its subsidiaries in the region. GTBank Gambia and GTBank Sierra Leone have turned out to be the most profitable of the bunch. With group profits in 2016 up 37%, GTBank appears to have weathered Nigeria’s economic squalls betterthan most. Agbaje has a steady hand. He started working at the bank in 1991, a year after it was founded, and became its managing director in 2011.


14 M ONEY

WHO'S WHO

Corporate bankers ATTIJARIWAFA BANK

Mohamed El Kettani A big push for continental expansion

BRUNO LEVY THE AFRICA CEO FORUM/JEUNE AFRIQUE

He is a member of King Mohammed VI’s unofficial economic advisory board. He wields Attijariwafa Bank like a national yet private investment bank, backing the big industrial policy drives of the administration, such as building a large auto and aeronautical industrial hub around the port of Tanger-Med. And El Kettani supports big Moroccan companies into their African forays, having driven Attijariwafa’s own continental expansion. The bank is now embedded in 14 different countries, with the latest subsidiary to open in Chad. In a more dramatic move, Attijariwafa bought Barclays Africa’s holdings in Egypt, a mostly retail banking business, for more than $500m. It marks an anglophone turn for Attijariwafa. In February 2016, El Kettani announced the bank was interested in East African markets such as Kenya and Ethiopia, but also West African countries like Nigeria and Ghana.

STANDARD BANK

Puso Manthata BEE dealmaker

Sola David-Borha From Nigeria to South Africa and beyond

A Johannesburg native and a seasoned banker who has done stints at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, Manthata was appointed the new co-head of corporate finance at Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) in 2016. A senior banker tells The Africa Report that Manthata is “well rounded in his transaction ability, having closed deals in all aspects of dealmaking, but specifically black economic empowerment (BEE) deals in South Africa and in Africa”. Manthata’s appointment may signal a willingness from RMB to work harder on the national transformation agenda. Manthata has been involved in some highpowered BEE deals like Belelani Capital’s deal with Pareto Limited and the sale of a 20% equity interest in Puma Energy Botswana to the Botswana Public Officers Pension Fund.

For all South Africans’ well-documented suspicions about Nigeria, South Africa’s banks know talent when they see it. David-Borha had worked her way up the ranks in Nigeria’s IBTC since the 1980s, having schooled in Ibadan and Manchester. When Standard Bank acquired IBTC in 2007, she rode the merger to the top, taking the reins in 2011. Now mother ship Standard Bank needs her for a bigger job: running all African affairs outside South Africa. She took up her new post in February. In 2015, Standard Bank announced plans for a major expansion in Angola, Nigeria and Mozambique, and so David-Borha will be looking for other African opportunities.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

RAND MERCHANT BANK


WHO'S WHO

M ONEY 15

Driving growth STANBIC BANK

OAK STREET MEDIA

Patrick Mweheire Native son His bank is Uganda’s largest, yet he is its first Ugandan chief executive. Mweheire has steered the bank to profitability over the past two years. CAL BANK

Frank Adu Jnr Progress over peers

STEWARD BANK

Lance Mambondiani Telephone banking

Adu helped to grow CAL Bank’s profit-after-tax by 16.1% in 2015 while its Ghanaian peers slumped. Investment fund Arise recently bought a stake in the bank, raising hopes it will continue to expand.

A lawyer by training, Mambondiani dodged a legal career in favour of banking – starting at the bottom as a corporate finance officer and doggedly working his way up to chief executive of Steward Bank. “Despite the challenges we are experiencing locally, we are extremely honoured that some of our innovations are being recognised globally,” Mambondiani says. The Zimbabwean bank, which started operations in 2013, is a subsidiary of mobile telephone company Econet Wireless.

STANDARD BANK

Sim Tshabalala Setting standards The joint chief executive of Standard Bank is pushing its African expansion. At home in South Africa, Tshabalala has been helping the government to avoid a ratings downgrade.

AWASH BANK

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Tsehay Shiferaw Plotting a private path Things are not easy for private-sector banks in Ethiopia, with state-led finance taking the lion’s share of the market. Nevertheless, last year Awash Bank became the first private bank to register a gross profit of more than 1bn birr ($44m). As the most profitable private bank in the country, Awash has also shown the benefits of seizing opportunity. It was the first bank to open its doors in Ethiopia’s nascent private banking industry – in 1994 – and Tsehay is now widely viewed as its most successful executive. The bank had total assets of $1.4bn last year, a 24% rise from the year before. S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

BANK OF KIGALI

Diane Karusisi A banker’s homecoming After earning a doctorate and working in Switzerland, Rwandan econometricist Karusisi headed home, arriving at Rwanda’s National Institute of Statistics in 2009. In 2016 she became CEO of the Bank of Kigali, with a mandate to push into new segments and bolster traditional strengths, such as serving smallholder farmers. •

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BANK OF AFRICA/FIMOSA CAPITAL

Guy-Robert Lukama Mining money The chairman of the board of the DRC’s Bank of Africa subsidiary is also influential in the mining sector and bought AngloGold’s large Mongbwalu gold mine through Fimosa Capital. STANDARD CHARTERED TANZANIA

Sanjay Rughani Look out for the small guy Standard Chartered’s former head of Africa finance took over its Tanzania operations in 2015 with the goal of improving the customer experience.


16 M ONEY

WHO'S WHO

Technology BARCLAYS AFRICA

Yasaman Hadjibashi Fostering fintech

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Banks wishing to avoid the risk of being disrupted by financial technology (fintech) firms are developing their own in-house capabilities, the theory being: if you can’t beat them, own them. And to put this theory into practice, it helps to have Yasaman Hadjibashi on the payroll. Since a stint with consultancy PwC in San Francisco, Hadjibashi has married finance to technology. As chief data officer for Barclays Africa, she built a ‘big data’ division for the bank to help create more personalised accounts and services, winning a slew of awards. Her new position as group chief creation officer for Barclays Africa builds on her previous work. She is identifying emerging talent in the fintech world and bringing people into the bank’s own accelerator programme. In particular, she is focusing on companies looking at new technologies such as blockchain, which could help to crack tough nuts such as getting a bank account for every African.

JAMBOPAY

CELLULANT

Danson Muchemi Payday from bill pay

Ken Njoroge Enriching the payment ecosystem

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

When Muchemi launched JamboPay in 2009, he and his business partner rented a computer at a cyber cafe for $45 per month. Now, the company is one of the most important digital payment service providers on the continent. It allows users to pay bills using mobile-money services such as M-Pesa, Airtel Money and yuCash. Last year, JamboPay worked with more than 2,500 institutional customers in Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania and Uganda. The company processed more than $50m in digital payments last year. At the end of 2016, Muchemi’s company announced a partnership with Sodexo, a meal and gift voucher service provider.

Njoroge founded Cellulant in 2004 and has overseen strong growth in customer numbers and revenue ever since. The company, which facilitates mobile payments and digital commerce services, works with more than 50 banks, 300 businesses and 40 telecoms operators. It now serves more than 13 million customers across eight African countries. Cellulant has partnerships with clients including Barclays, Guinness and Safaricom. Njoroge is at the forefront of an ambitious expansion programme that would see the company build a database of 150 million farmers and offer their information to financial institutions. Cellulant is working with Kenya Airways to streamline booking processes across national borders and on mobile devices.

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Youth EMERGING CAPITAL PARTNERS

Peter is part of the new generation of deal-makers. Well rounded in management consultancy and investment banking, he has worked at Rand Merchant Bank and Bain Capital, where he was part of the team that worked on the restructuring of the Development Bank of Southern Africa. Currently at Emerging Capital Partners (ECP), he is a private-equity manager working on African projects. The ECP Africa team has $2.5bn in invested assets, some involving companies building private education institutions and rolling out broadband offerings. Peter’s duties include deal execution, sourcing, capital-raising and portfolio management.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

Samkelisiwe ‘Sam’ Peter A rising star in private equity

UNION CAPITAL PARTNERS

Minoush Abdel-Meguid Backing Egyptian SMEs Young emerging talent tends to leave a recognisable trail – stellar academic achievement, early success and responsibility. Abdel-Meguid is no different. Graduating magna cum laude from the American University in Cairo she became head of the Egyptian Young Bankers Association. She worked at Goldman Sachs, HSBC and Citibank, where she was involved in the first cross-border mergers and acquisitions deal in Egypt – Orascom Construction’s purchase of Chakwal Cement. From there she became head of corporate finance at the Egyptian Capital Market Authority. Abdel-Meguid co-founded her own private equity fund, Union Capital Partners, in 2008, where she runs one of the country’s first funds to focus on small and medium-sized companies.

PANGAEA SECURITIES

Celestin Mukeba Eyes on the small prize

Ceaser Siwale Fundraiser with a fresh perspective

Mukeba, in his 40s, has taken over the reins at ProCredit Bank Congo. It is one of the few banks in the Democratic Republic of Congo that walks the talk about small companies and financial inclusion. Like elsewhere on the continent, most Congolese banks prefer a safer clientele: rich people and big companies. Since Equity Bank – a Kenyan lender with a similar bottom-of-the-pyramid approach – acquired control of ProCredit last year, it has embarked on an aggressive expansion drive.

While the Zambian economy slows after a decade of high copper prices, new entrepreneurs are emerging. Ceaser Siwale, 43, owns Pangaea Securities, which, alongside the Zambia Development Agency, organised Zambia’s first investment conference in 2014. Apart from being an astute broker, Siwale is a leading investor and entrepreneur in Zambia in technology, media and telecommunications, and fast-moving consumer goods. Through Pangaea Securities, he has been instrumental in raising more than $2bn for Zambian businesses in the past 10 years. These include Fresh View Cinemas, Mugg & Bean and Pizza Hut franchises, and AgDevCo, a social impact investor and agribusiness project developer.

JOHN BOMPENGO FOR JA

PROCREDIT BANK CONGO


18 M ONEY

WHO'S WHO

Government/Stock Exchanges

Markets movers ETHIOPIA COMMODITY EXCHANGE

STOCK EXCHANGE OF MAURITIUS

Ermias Eshetu Tech for trades

Sunil Benimadhu Between Africa and Asia

Since Eshetu became CEO in January 2015, the commodities exchange has introduced electronic transactions for almost all trades, and bespoke software is built in-house by local engineers.

The long-serving head of the island’s stock market is pushing a drive for its internationalisation as the country’s financial sector turns towards the African continent. In view of recent changes to a double taxation avoidance treaty that will make Mauritius a less attractive route for Indian investment, Benimadhu has been looking for other ways to profit from India’s growth. The bourse listed its first Indian rupee-denominated bond, worth $73m, in December 2016. In July 2016, the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and India’s BSE bourse signed a deal to share technology and expertise. Benimadhu is also working on strengthening Mauritius’s role in African finance through the companies of its Global Business Segment.

DEVELOPMENT BANK OF SOUTHERN AFRICA

Kameshni Naidoo Institutional overhaul Working as chief financial officer of the DBSA, Naidoo has helped restructure the organisation, which has included the shedding of staff but also getting more money from government. ALTX EAST AFRICA

Joseph Kitamirike Trading innovator The former boss of Uganda Securities Exchange launched ALTX East Africa for trading equities and currencies in 2015.

Sherif Samy Brokering power The head of Egypt’s capital markets is negotiating a new tie-up with Australia, while fighting off government attempts to impose stamp duty on financial transactions. GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE

Kofi Yamoah Roll out the barrels With oil production picking up this year, Yamoah will be hoping that it drives trading after what has now been two years of negative growth.

STEPHEN JAFFE/IMF

EGYPTIAN FINANCIAL SUPERVISORY AUTHORITY

MINISTRY OF FINANCE, NIGERIA

Kemi Adeosun Powers of persuasion Credit for the success of the latest bond roadshow must go to Adeosun, whose assured presentations on Nigeria’s route out of oil dependency convinced investors. With a closing price of 7.9%, and oversubscribed to the tune of $7.8bn, the $1bn eurobond is a solid start to fixing the gaping hole in the ambitious 2017 budget. Next stop for the finance minister was the World Bank, which is contemplating a $2.5bn loan. In Washington DC for the Bank’s spring meetings, she bigged up Nigeria’s whistle-blower programme, saying: “We are going after those who have stolen our money”. S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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RESERVE OF BANK OF ZIMBABWE

ELMOND-JIYANE/GOUV.ZA

John Mangudya Bond it, don’t break it! Called the “bond man”, the soft spoken central bank chief has been desperately pushing bond notes, an unorthodox surrogate currency, as the answer to the embattled country’s cash crisis. Following their detested introduction on 28 November 2016, and despite the addition of more notes to the market in December, the currency has failed to end insistent cash woes. Indeed, bank queues have worsened. Cynics predict the economy will tip into hyperinflation reminiscent of the 2007/8 period.

PARLIAMENT, SOUTH AFRICA

Yunus Carrim Finance crusader The chair of parliament’s finance committee is clear in his priorities for South Africa’s financial sector. In January, he explained the threat posed by the dominance of the big four banks: “We are acutely aware of the need to transform the financial sector. We urge the banks to transform and if they don’t do so through engagements with government and parliament, it will be done for them through popular action.” Carrim is also trying to increase surveillance of the financial sector through the Financial Intelligence Centre Amendment Bill. It faces resistance from President Zuma’s administration, who claim warrantless searches in the bill are unconstitutional.

TREASURY, KENYA

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

His is the quiet power behind the economic throne. Treasury secretary Henry Rotich worked with President Uhuru Kenyatta when the latter was finance minister in 2009-11. In March, with August elections approaching, he announced a crowd-pleasing KSh2.6trn budget, the largest in Kenya’s history. Rotich’s orthodox style has been tested by the more spendthrift ways of his colleagues. Financing devolution has been a headache; likewise, the weakness in the banking sector.

VINCENT BLOCQUAUX

Henry Rotich Balancing act

CASABLANCA FINANCE CITY AUTHORITY

Saïd Ibrahimi Casa’s rising star The Casablanca financial market was ranked 30th of 87 on the Global Financial Centres Index in September 2016, an enviable achievement for Ibrahimi. The Paris-trained director was previously treasurer general in charge of modernising projects

for the Kingdom of Morocco. The Casablanca bourse has yet to burst into life, however, with relatively subdued trading levels and a sparsity of new listings. A recent initiative to encourage smaller companies to list is hoped to bear fruit in the near future.


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22 M ONEY

WHO'S WHO

Funds/Private Equity MOTSENG INVESTMENT HOLDINGS

Ipeleng Mkhari Climbing property and other ladders

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

This motivated self-starter got going when working at a CCTV company as a marketing director. Twelve months later, she had a CCTV company of her own – the first black-woman-owned CCTV company in South Africa – which was eventually to become Motseng Investment Holdings. That snowballed into a property management company, adding janitor services to security. Deals with progressively larger entities, such as the Marriott hotel group, have brought the company into the big time. The purchase of a stake in KAP International Holdings – a logistics and manufacturing group – has diversified the business, and Mkhari now sits on the board as a non-executive director of the firm. Motseng Investment’s assets under management now top R20bn ($1.5bn). Mkhari is a tireless and vocal advocate for women in business in South Africa, in the property sector and beyond.

STANDARD CHARTERED BANK

Benson Wairegi East African booster

Ronald Tamale Electric deals

Wairegi presides over an impressive investment portfolio spanning Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, South Sudan, Mozambique and Malawi. As investor attention shifts to East Africa, he will find a flurry of opportunities in the year ahead. The group is the second-largest insurance provider in Kenya after Jubilee Insurance Company. British-American Investments Company also offers services ranging from insurance and asset management to banking and property financing. Wairegi also serves as the director of the Housing Finance Company of Kenya, which is the largest mortgage provider in the country.

Tamale got a big promotion in August 2016 to become the head of Standard Chartered’s South Africa-based private-equity arm amidst a climate of cost cutting and more competition for deals. The Stanford-educated banker has been a member of the bank’s Africa privateequity division since its founding in 2008, during which time it has spent nearly a billion dollars. He oversaw private-equity deals in Eastern and Southern Africa before taking up his new job, which has a continental view. Prior to working at Standard Chartered, Tamale was on the investment side at Goldman Sachs. At Standard Chartered, he has managed to get an inside look at Zambian electricity company Copperbelt Energy, which has operations in Zambia and Nigeria. He became a member of the company’s board after the bank made a $57m investment in 2014.

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

BRITISH-AMERICAN INVESTMENTS COMPANY

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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UGANDA’S NATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY FUND

Richard Byarugaba A guardian for Uganda’s retirement funds

MEGAPIX

The National Social Security Fund is an integral investment player, with equity holdings including power utility Umeme and Kenyan lender Equity Bank. The fund is also the most active institutional investor on the Uganda Securities Exchange. As Byarugaba pursues investments to grow pension stocks and raise interest earnings, he is a man to watch. He is now working with the government on proposals for the liberalisation of the pensions sector. He was previously CEO of telecoms company Afrimax, managing director of Global Trust Bank Uganda and chief operations officer of Barclays Bank of Uganda.

Leavers quartet UHURU CAPITAL PARTNERS

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

MIKE HUTCHINGS/REUTERS

Yemi Osindero Boutique beginnings

ARKANA PARTNERS

ARKANA PARTNERS

Marlon Chigwende Being your own boss

Kayode Akinola Mid-cap on his mind

Marlon Chigwende left US privateequity giant Carlyle in 2016 after five years running its Africa division. The group had launched several unsuccessful bids, including for Diamond Bank in Nigeria. His new venture, with Kayode Akinola (see right), is Arkana Partners. It will focus on deals around the $100m range, and, while it will look at other asset classes, it will major in private equity.

Kayode Akinola used to head up another US private-equity giant’s operations in Africa. He left KKR in September 2016 to join Chigwende at Arkana Partners. Before arriving at KKR, his path has taken him through Helios, the Nigerian-rooted private-equity outfit. Now managing partner at Arkana Partners, Akinola is focusing the new ship on the underserved mid-cap market.

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From Goldman Sachs, via Virgin Nigeria, Osindero rose to head up Standard Chartered’s West Africa private-equity desk, which was heavy on Nigerian investments. With the tougher economic outlook in 2016, Standard Chartered took an axe to their private-equity unit. Osindero left with colleague Nana Dankwa, to form Uhuru Capital Partners, an independent Africa-focused fund. INVESTEC

Peter Baird Seeking opportunity After heading up Standard Chartered’s Africa private-equity division, Baird moved on in the 2016 shake-out. He has not been idle. In March, he was announced as the head of UK-South African bank Investec’s two Africa private-equity funds, totalling a portfolio of $450m. Investec’s second Africa fund closed in February 2017 and raised $295m.


24 M ONEY

RANKINGS

Top 100 Africa’s biggest banks and bosses Rank 2016

Rank 2015

CEO or Managing Director

Company

Country

Total assets ($ thousands)

Net profits ($ thousands)

1

1

Tim Tshabalala & Ben Kruger

Standard Bank Group

South Africa

128 493 173

1 521 486

2

2

Tim Tshabalala & Ben Kruger

Standard Bank of South Africa

South Africa

82 823 172

809 388

3

3

Maria Ramos

Barclays Africa Group

South Africa

74 239 015

999 103

4

4

Johan Burger

FirstRand Banking Group

South Africa

68 703 993

1 499 823

5

6

Hisham Okasha

National Bank of Egypt

Egypt

66 154 094

648 172

6

5

Michael Brown

Nedbank Group

South Africa

60 042 588

702 499

7

9

Mohamed El-Etreby

Banque Misr

Egypt

42 164 762

532 442

8

7

Mohamed El Kettani

Attijariwafa Bank

Morocco

41 420 289

534 045

9

8

Stephen Koseff

Investec Limited

South Africa

36 891 006

-

10

10

Mohamed Benchaaboun

Banque Centrale Populaire

Morocco

33 132 781

304 575 198 000

11

14

Othman Benjelloun

BMCE

Morocco

28 000 000

12

11

James Formby

Rand Merchant Bank

South Africa

26 832 582

381 896

13

12

Achour Abboud

Banque Nationale d'Algérie

Algeria

25 260 262

274 399

14

13

Saïd Kessasra

Banque Extérieure d'Algérie

Algeria

24 304 000

312 000

15

15

Ade Ayeyemi

Ecobank Transnational Incorporated

Togo

23 553 919

107 464

16

19

Hisham Ezz Al-Arab

Commercial International Bank

Egypt

22 853 963

602 181

17

17

Jacques Celliers

First National Bank

South Africa

22 742 186

732 918

18

16

Adesola Adeduntan

First Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

20 705 959

75 286

19

18

Peter Amangbo

Zenith Bank

Nigeria

19 914 005

525 145

Mohamed Ben Yousef

Libyan Foreign Bank

Libya

18 865 277

153 861

Peter Amangbo

Zenith Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

18 639 125

490 956 406 409

20

-

21

20

22

23

Mohamed Osman El-Dib

Qatar National Bank Alahli

Egypt

16 910 253

23

21

Omar Boudieb

Crédit Populaire d'Algérie

Algeria

15 589 781

267 812

24

22

Kennedy Uzoka

United Bank for Africa Group

Nigeria

13 680 531

296 480 213 112

25

29

Hassan E. Abdalla

Arab African International Bank

Egypt

13 468 258

26

26

Ato Bekalu Zeleke

Commercial Bank of Ethiopia

Ethiopia

12 880 453

-

27

27

Herbert Wigwe

Access Bank Group

Nigeria

12 878 911

327 368

28

25

Oliver Alawuba

United Bank for Africa

Nigeria

12 699 999

217 651

29

24

Segun Agbaje

Guaranty Trust Bank

Nigeria

12 547 231

494 201

30

-

Boualem Djebbar

BADR

Algeria

12 138 723

52 786

31

33

Paixão António Júnior

Banco de Poupança e Crédito

Angola

10 289 552

60 924

32

32

Emídio Pinheiro

Banco de Fomento de Angola

Angola

9 037 407

310 394

33

34

Charles Kie

Ecobank Nigeria

Nigeria

8 917 910

56 181

34

35

Tariq Sijilmassi

Crédit Agricole du Maroc

Morocco

8 779 337

33 874

35

31

Uzoma Dozie

Diamond Bank Nigeria

Nigeria

8 713 564

28 113

36

36

Khalid Chami

Société Générale Maroc

Morocco

8 488 325

69 726

José Massano

Banco Angolano de Investimentos

Angola

8 067 450

112 879

Jacques-Emmanuel Blanchet

HSBC Bank Egypt

Egypt

8 049 703

322 477

37

30

38

-

39

40

Brahim Benjelloun-Touimi

Groupe BOA

Senegal

7 911 719

105 019

40

39

Adetokunbo Abiru

Skye Bank

Nigeria

7 716 638

52 894

41

-

Mohammed Krim

Banque de Développement Local

Algeria

7 508 206

64 937

42

38

Fernando Teles

Banco BIC

Angola

7 185 424

203 273

43

49

Benedict Oramah

African Export-Import Bank

Egypt

7 132 909

125 317

44

42

Abdel Hamid Abu Mousa

Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt

Egypt

7 068 029

95 980 135 316

45

43

Antony Withers

The Mauritius Commercial Bank

Mauritius

6 812 401

46

41

Laurent Dupuch

BMCI

Morocco

6 297 397

41 570

47

57

Mohamed Naguib

Société Arabe Int’l. de Banque

Egypt

6 273 000

42 991

48

44

Nnamdi Okonkwo

Fidelity Bank

Nigeria

6 121 658

69 103

49

-

Patrick Dlamini

Devel. Bank of Southern Africa

South Africa

6 107 581

104 525

50

46

Dante Campioni

Bank of Alexandria

6 049 949

177 028

Egypt

2015 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2014 RESULTS

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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RANKINGS

M ONEY 25

Each year, The Africa Report publishes an exclusive ranking and analysis of Africa’s Top 200 banks – watch out for our next edition in September 2017. Rank 2016

Rank 2015

51

45

Ladi Balogun

First City Monument Bank

Nigeria

5 762 885

23 661

52

51

Joshua Oigara

Kenya Commercial Bank Group

Kenya

5 357 704

188 381

5 203 053

69 515

CEO or Managing Director

Company

Country

53

48

Emeka Emuwa

Union Bank of Nigeria

Nigeria

54

50

Baldoméro Valverde

Crédit du Maroc

Morocco

55

47

Henri-Claude Oyima

BGFIBank Holding Corp.

Gabon

56

56

Mohamed Agrebi

Banque Int’l. Arabe de Tunisie

57

68

Yasser Ismail Hassan

National Bank of Kuwait - Egypt

58

62

Hatem Sadek

59

52

60 61

Total assets ($ thousands)

Net profits ($ thousands)

5 177 452

7 658

4 996 278

50 234

Tunisia

4 841 107

74 609

Egypt

4 784 518

73 283

Bank Audi Egypt

Egypt

4 743 515

74 645

Yinka Sanni

Stanbic IBTC Bank

Nigeria

4 659 693

93 888

55

Redouane Najm-Eddine

Al Barid Bank

Morocco

4 585 742

17 338

54

Ahmed Rahhou

Crédit Immobilier et Hôtelier

Morocco

4 524 912

53 914 159 924

62

65

Joshua Oigara

Kenya Commercial Bank

Kenya

4 498 693

63

66

Habib Koné

Atlantic Business International

Côte d'Ivoire

4 284 774

21 839

64

64

Sidi Ould Tah

BADEA

Sudan

4 154 512

189 209

65

69

James Mwangi

Equity Bank Group

Kenya

4 109 395

166 339

66

72

Admassu Tadesse

PTA Bank

Burundi

4 094 560

94 720

67

53

Habib Ben Hadj Kouider

Banque Nationale Agricole

Tunisia

4 091 261

12 480

68

-

Gerrie Fourie

Capitec Bank

South Africa

4 082 645

209 383

69

60

François-Edouard Drion

Crédit Agricole Egypt

Egypt

4 065 296

132 077

70

58

Adeyemi Adeola

Sterling Bank

Nigeria

3 973 274

51 154

71

61

Ahmed El Karm

Amen Bank

Tunisia

3 908 174

29 758 60 570

72

75

Adel A. El-Labban

Ahli United Bank Egypt

Egypt

3 897 860

73

67

Samir Saied

Société Tunisienne de Banque

Tunisia

3 786 869

16 264

74

84

Ashraf Ahmed El-Ghamrawy

Al Baraka Bank Egypt

Egypt

3 679 552

33 748

75

70

Carlos José da Silva

Banco Privado Atlantico

Angola

3 644 221

61 901

76

77

Ahmed Rjiba

Banque de l'Habitat de Tunisie

Tunisia

3 604 840

40 628 26 814

77

74

Tshokolo Petrus Nchocho

Land Bank

South Africa

3 490 825

78

71

Mathieu Mandeng

Standard Chartered Bank Mauritius

Mauritius

3 447 348

11 236

79

79

Ravin Rao Dajee

Barclays Bank of Mauritius

Mauritius

3 352 133

35 313

80

73

Nayen Koomar Ballah

SBM Bank Mauritius

Mauritius

3 325 272

36 356

81

85

Gideon M. Muriuki

Co-operative Bank of Kenya

Kenya

3 287 998

112 373

82

63

Brian Riley

African Bank Limited

South Africa

3 287 040

-467 770

83

88

Fathy El-Sebai Mansour

Housing & Development Bank

Egypt

3 225 907

62 514

84

97

James Mwangi

Equity Bank Kenya

Kenya

3 157 114

-

85

82

Mohamed El-Din Barakat

Arab International Bank

Egypt

3 143 263

47 894

86

59

Chris J K Murray

HSBC Mauritius

Mauritius

3 038 467

41 504

87

96

Zuhair Hamada Idris

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank – Egypt

Egypt

3 003 271

27 914

88

86

Christian Adovelande

West African Development Bank

Togo

2 978 679

14 761

89

91

Moncef Chaffar

Attijari Bank Tunisie

Tunisia

2 975 902

44 890

Tarek Fathi Kandil

Suez Canal Bank

Egypt

2 921 997

-

Mervat Z. El Sayed Soltan

Export Development Bank of Egypt

Egypt

2 874 771

-

90

92

91

100

92

90

Yemane Tesfay

Commercial Bank of Eritrea

Eritrea

2 850 168

6 906

93

-

Nidal El Kassem Assar

Egyptian Gulf Bank

Egypt

2 846 793

35 411

94

-

Ali Omar Almoktar

Banque Sahelo-Saharienne

Libya

2 806 019

5 936

95

93

Manuel Neto da Costa

BDA

Angola

2 773 575

2 415

96

87

Paulo Sousa

Banco Comercial e de Investimentos

Mozambique

2 655 598

36 001

97

99

98

-

99

83

100

-

Mohamed Férid Ben Tanfous

Arab Tunisian Bank

Tunisia

2 618 653

28 373

Nasim Devji

Diamond Trust Bank Kenya

Kenya

2 607 443

63 358

Jose Reino da Costa

Millennium BIM

Mozambique

2 553 080

79 225

António Gaioso Henriques

Banco Millennium Angola

Angola

2 520 419

49 685

2015 RESULTS IN THOUSANDS OF US DOLLARS; *IN ITALICS 2014 RESULTS

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26 M ONEY

L AST WORD

INTERVIEW

Elsie Kanza

Head of Africa, World Economic Forum

As leaders assemble in South Africa in May for the World Economic Forum on Africa, Kanza outlines the challenges they face and the urgent need to develop a new growth model that is inclusive and harnesses technology’s advances

T

he World Economic Forum (WEF)’s upcoming Africa conference in Durban will focus on the economic predicament in which global leaders find themselves. “There has been a failure of growth models to deliver on citizens’ expectations,” says Elsie Kanza – who runs the WEF’s Africa programme – “and we are short on alternatives.” She argues that the ways African leaders cater for the growing youth population will dictate the trajectory of the continent. This reappraisal of the challenges to come – when Africa moves from about one billion people today to two billion people by 2050 – is taking place as oil and mineral exporters are struggling. Countries like Nigeria, Angola and Zambia had been growing at a clip when times were good. “Along with the changes in the global context,” says Kanza – pointing to recent developments in the US and Britain – “leaders in Africa are reassessing the continent and themselves. What are the lessons on inclusivity?” To help, the WEF is working on new indicators to go beyond simple measures of gross domestic product and to track progress in people’s lives.

ENRIQUE PARDO

We are short on alternatives The May WEF Africa conference will look at the ecosystem African leaders work in, examining to what extent are they trusted and how responsive they are. It will build on the 2016 summit in Kigali, with particular attention on the risks and opportunities of the ‘fourth industrial revolution’. And it will look for new models of inclusion, be they through urbanisation, integrating small and medium-sized enterprises into the value chains of large domestic and international companies, or using digital solutions to bring Africans into the formal banking sector. WINNERS AND LOSERS

The fourth industrial revolution paints a picture of ever-greater involvement of technology in the means of production, from big data to embedded sensors, to

“We must be open to complete disruption […] to help leaders think about what comes next” workflow software and beyond. Like all revolutions, it creates winners and losers. For companies such as clothing manufacturers, which depend on low labour costs, things are unlikely to change quickly. Despite the myriad African countries angling for manufacturing jobs by trying to undercut China, “Ethiopia remains the poster child [for this dynamic], and those kinds of jobs will stay for the short and medium term,” says Kanza.

But for other sectors, like mining, technology will cause greater dislocations. Robots are able to work far deeper than humans in mines, and this could hit employment hard. “The challenge they have in South Africa, for example, is what to do with the miners,” says Kanza. “There are some tough conversations going on there.” More decentralised manufacturing may also preserve jobs in that sector. At the Gearbox ihub in Kenya, the ‘maker’s movement’ is learning from Indian examples of how to use technology in the informal sector. This is likely to be how much of the population of Africa engages with it. Some of that will require better focus on skills and training. “Do we need to put someone in an institution for four years when they can learn the right skills on the job in four hours?” asks Kanza. “We need to be open to complete disruption. How can we help leaders of today rise above today’s challenges and think about what is coming next for our societies?” Certainly, some may well have cause for concern. “Lots of leaders are worried at the top,” says Kanza, referring to the demographic wave set to break over the continent. “But when we speak to entrepreneurs, they are excited. By 2050, we will need 700m new housing units. That’s not including the backlog. All these people will need to eat, need to sleep. All these are opportunities. So panic, perhaps, but there is also a lot of excitement.” ● Interview by Nicholas Norbrook

S U P P L E M E N T TO T H E A F R I C A R E P O R T

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