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Can this man change Zimbabwe? EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

MONTHLY • N° 100 • MAY 2018

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION

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Emmerson Mnangagwa

Can this man change Zimbabwe?

THE AFRICA REPORT # 100 - MAY 2018

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW

JEUNE AFRIQUE MEDIA GROUP INTERNATIONAL EDITION

BUSINESS

04 EDITORIAL Debt déja vu 06 THE AFRICA REPORT Over a decade – and 100 issues – of the magazine

BRIEFING 08 SIGNPOSTS

10 PEOPLE 12 INTERNATIONAL 14 CALENDAR 16 OPINION Where is Africa’s moral compass?

POLITICS 26 ZIMBABWE Open for business… and now politics President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his economic team sat down for a round-table interview with The Africa Report

26 52

DOSSIER: UTILITIES 66 Generating crises South Africa’s President Ramaphosa has made ailing parastatal Eskom a priority. Can new management solve its problems? 70 GABON Water war 71 INTERVIEW Juan Laso, executive president, Alten Energías Renovables

ART & LIFE

36 KENYA Ruto’s path to 2022

COVER CREDITS: WEF/NEWSCOM/SIPA

COUNTRY FOCUS 43 CÔTE D’IVOIRE The glitz and the grime Co-host of the Africa CEO Forum in March, Côte d’Ivoire has improved its business climate and economic growth. But inequality has provoked protests, and pitfalls await THE AFRICA REPORT

•

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60 OPINION Uganda’s liberal yet unfair economy

64 FINANCE Nigeria: stuck in a lending rut

32 NIGERIA The PDP’s long road back to power

38 ANANSI After aid: the taxman cometh

56 THE AFRICA CEO FORUM Time for transformation

62 LEADERS Christian Combes, Africa director, Eiffage Infrastructures

FRONTLINE 18 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES The continent is seeing the first tremors in a massive upswelling of political and economic change, driven, like all revolutions, by the youth

52 START-UPS Slow-motion revolution Africa has the talent, but its start-ups are scrabbling for a tiny fraction of the global venture capital pie. It’s time for governments and local investors to step up

72 ART DUBAI Shifting perspectives African and diaspora artists shone at the Emirates art fair 76 MUSIC Makossa, sound of the city in Douala 78 LIFESTYLE Uche Pedro, founder of BellaNaija 80 TRAVEL Weekend in Djibouti 82 HOMAGE Winnie Madikizela-Mandela

THE AFRICA REPORT A Jeune Afrique Media Group publication

BY PATRICK SMITH

57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL – 75016 PARIS – FRANCE TEL: (33) 1 44 30 19 60 – FAX: (33) 1 44 30 19 30 www.theafricareport.com

CHA I R M A N A ND F O UND E R BÉCHIR BEN YAHMED

Debt déjà-vu

P UB L I S HE R DANIELLE BEN YAHMED publisher@theafricareport.com

uddenly, it is time for another financial crisis. A decade ago, those feckless US mortgage backers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac watched the issuing of mortgages that were unlikely to be paid back as a battalion of investment banks sliced and diced those debt obligations and marketed them at vertiginous profits. The protagonists’ greed and sense of impunity rendered tens of millions of people homeless. Most of the culpable banks in the US and Britain were bailed out; only the most honest (or most stupid) bankers went to jail. That crisis held the world’s attention. This time, the looming financial crisis is facing Africa, but it is struggling to fill a 200word story in the financial pages of the world’s leading papers as they report the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. Yet those two institutions – the policeman and the plumber, as they are known by insiders – are at the heart of the story. As the avarice of Western banks nearly blew up the financial system a decade ago, the IMF and the World Bank were signing the last of a remarkable series of debt-reduction deals with some of the world’s poorest countries. About 20 countries, many of them in Africa, were able to write off unsustainable debts to the IMF, World Bank and African Development Bank. They could start again with a clean sheet and policies that emphasised responsible borrowing. Sadly, it did not work. The IMF’s latest analysis reports that 24 out of the 60 poorest countries already face a debt crisis or are very like to do so this year. That is double the number of five years ago.

E X E CUT I VE P UB L I S HE R JÉRÔME MILLAN

In their number are Chad, the Republic of Congo and Zambia: all commodity exporters with a history of opaque deals with trading companies untroubled by international standards of transparency. This time, the crippling debts are not owed to the the suits of the international financial institutions but to far less forgiving commercial entities. For example, Chad’s state oil company borrowed $1.4bn in 2014 from Switzerland-based Glencore. After that, the oil price dived and Chad was spending 85% of its shrinking oil earnings on its payment to Glencore. After pubChad was lic services closed in a N’Djamena starved of spending cash, the good burgh85% of ers of Glencore agreed to restructure the loan. its shrinking Developing econoil earnings omies have seen on its debt debt-servicing costs soar by 60% over to Glencore the past five years. With the prospect of a stronger dollar and higher US interest rates, borrowers will have to pay still more. All this at a time of weak world prices for most of Africa’s commodity exporters. Just as the 2008 financial crisis did, this one raises the question of accountability and responsibility. Should the IMF take more of the blame for failing to sound alarms louder, should institutions such as Credit Suisse and Russia’s VTB Bank – involved in Mozambique’s secret loan scandal – face prosecution, and what about the political leaders who presided over the reckless build-up of unsustainable state obligations? Time to send in the forensic investigators.

THE AFRICA REPORT

•

N ° 10 0

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M A R K E T I NG & D E VE L O P M E NT ALISON KINGSLEY‑HALL E D I T O R I N CHI E F PATRICK SMITH M A NA G I NG E D I T O R NICHOLAS NORBROOK editorial@theafricareport.com A S S O CI AT E E D I T O R MARSHALL VAN VALEN B US I NE S S E D I T O R MARK ANDERSON R E S E A R CH & P R O D UCT I O N OHENEBA AMA NTI OSEI RE G IO NA L E D I T O R CRYSTAL ORDERSON (SOUTHERN AFRICA) A RT & LI FE ED I T O R BILLIE ADWOA MCTERNAN S UB - E D I T O R ALISON CULLIFORD P R O O F R E A D I NG KATHLEEN GRAY A RT DI R E CT O R MARC TRENSON DESIGN VALÉRIE OLIVIER (LEAD DESIGNER) SYDONIE GHAYEB CHRISTOPHE CHAUVIN (INFOGRAPHICS) R E S E A R CH SYLVIE FOURNIER P HO T O G R A P HY CLAIRE VATTEBLED FRANÇOIS GRIVELET XAVIER ROUSSEAU SALES A JUSTE TITRE Tel: (33) 9 70 75 81 77 contact‑ajt‑sifija@ajustetitres.fr CONTACT FOR SUBSCRIPTION: Webscribe Ltd Unit 4 College Road Business Park College Road North Aston Clinton HP22 5EZ United Kingdom Tel: + 44 (0) 1442 820580 Fax: + 44 (0) 1442 827912 Email: subs@webscribe.co.uk ExpressMag 8275 Avenue Marco Polo Montréal, QC H1E 7K1, Canada T : +1 514 355 3333 1 year subscription (10 issues): All destinations: €39 ‑ $60 ‑ £35 TO ORDER ONLINE: www.theafricareportstore.com A D VE RT I S I NG D I F CO M INTERNATIONAL ADVERTISING AND COMMUNICATION AGENCY 57‑BIS, RUE D’AUTEUIL 75016 PARIS ‑ FRANCE Tel: (33) 1 44 30 19‑60 – Fax: (33) 1 44 30 18 34 advertising@theafricareport.com PRINTER: SIEP 77 ‑ FRANCE N° DE COMMISSION PARITAIRE : 0720 I 86885 Dépôt légal à parution / ISSN 1950‑4810 THE AFRICA REPORT is published by GROUPE JEUNE AFRIQUE

“How do we find new opportunities?”

“Together.”

By putting together the best team of experts, we are able to offer you the best solutions for your business. Together, we can do anything, from finding opportunities for clean energy, to unlocking Africa’s potential. standardbank.com/CIBInsights

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Authorised financial services and registered credit provider (NCRCP15).

The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited (Reg. No. 1962/000738/06). Moving Forward is a trademark of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited. SBSA GMS-2159 03/18

ANNIVERSARY

June 2012 The Africa Report

completes its hat-trick of Diageo African Business Reporting awards for Best Media.

The Africa Report Over a decade of scoops, news and analysis

We have been privileged to serve our wide community of readers for 100 issues of the magazine, with front row seats on an ever-changing continent

TAR29 April 2011 The Arab Spring erupts, and The Africa Report headed to Egypt and Tunisia to look at the rotting roots of repressive regimes.

TAR43 August 2012 In honour of the outstanding contributions made by leading African cultural, business and political icons, The Africa Report launches its list of 50 influential Africans. TAR70 May 2015 Along with the rest of the world, we rejoiced at a civilian transition of power in Nigeria; but pointed to the hazards of raised expectations.

TAR75 November 2015 With China starting to suffer economically and its huge order book contracting, Africa’s unhealthy reliance on China’s appetite for raw materials became apparent.

TAR82 July 2016 While many condemned

Zimbabwe’s land reform outright, The Africa Report wanted to see the aftermath. And the mixed picture sugests that Mugabe’s legacy will also be complex.

April 2017 The 4th Africa Report Debate in Marrakech asked whether Africa’s development is a mirage.

TAR8 October 2007 As The Africa Report entered its third year, the vicious fight between South African president Thabo Mbeki and his disgraced deputy Jacob Zuma erupted into all-out war.

TAR17 June 2009 Our explosive investigation into

Nigeria’s banks, which looked at how numerous financial institutions cooked the books, was published two months before four bank executives were sacked.

TAR47 Febuary 2013 In the rise of the philanthrocrats, we examined the new class of actor on the continent: one untethered by traditional rules of financial or national constraints, for the better and for the worse.

TAR64 October 2014 The high oil price

in Nigeria made the presidency the greatest of all prizes, and, we felt, created a Game of Thrones scenario for the upcoming elections.

TAR98 March 2017 As we charted the rise of Ramaphosa to South

Africa’s presidency, we identified areas where the administration must rebuild trust: tax, police, security services and the public prosecutor.

SOUTH AFRICA

The authorities launched a new raid on a property used by the Guptas in Johannesburg on 16 April to gather more evidence against the brothers. The 2 April death of Winnie Madikizela-Mandela (see page 82), the former wife of the late president Nelson Mandela, was a chance for the ANC to rally its base and revel in its history as a liberation movement. At the funeral, both Ramaphosa and Julius Malema, leader of the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters, talked about the possibility of more cooperation. Malema said: “Mama, you said to us we must come back to the ANC. We heard you. But which ANC do we go to?” The ANC’s popularity has been falling in recent years, and Ramaphosa came to power against a backdrop of calls for land reform, the rolling out of national health insurance and making education more affordable. The government will not have the ANC secretary general Ace money to implement those policies if Magashule is a key Zuma ally, and he investors worry about the business is in the political crosshairs over his role environment and Ramaphosa’s in a number of suspect contracts. The management of loss-making parastatal opposition Democratic Alliance sought companies (see page 66). In April, he for criminal charges to be filed against launched an ambitious programme Magashule in April for his involvement with the goal of attracting at least in a troubled contract for housing $100bn in new investment over the construction when he was premier next five years, using well-respected of Free State. Meanwhile, the National business leaders and former Prosecuting Authority is tightening bureaucrats to vaunt the qualities of the the noose around the Indian-born new Team SA. Ramaphosa does not Gupta brothers over their business have until 2023 to get things going, as dealings when Zuma was in power. national elections are planned for 2019. GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP

Cyril’s first 100 days

he first 100 days, which will come to an end on 26 May, will test President Cyril Ramaphosa’s promises to weed out the corruption that developed under his predecessor and turn around the country’s anaemic economy. The courts are helping out with the former, as the trial of former president Jacob Zuma began in March. The court case is a reminder of the depths the African National Congress (ANC) reached in recent years and the ongoing friction between those loyal to the old guard and to the new guard.

MIGRATION MAKING MORE MONEY Remittances remain a crucial source of funds for many African countries, and are on an upward trend. The World Bank predicts that remittances to sub-Saharan Africa could soon reach $40bn per year. But

“We will not

the continent does not get all the benefit it could from these money transfers, as sending remittances to Africa is more expensive than to other regions. Data from the UN says that people pay on average 9% on a $200 transfer to an African country, compared to 6% to Latin America.

agree to anything that will undermine local manufacturers and entrepreneurs ”

Remittances to sub-Saharan Africa ($bn)

38 SOURCE: WORLD BANK

36 34 32

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

DREW ANGERER/NEWSCOM/SIPA

Nigerria’s President Muhammadu Buha ari says that Abuja will think twice before signing up to a new continental free trrade deal brokered by the AU.

THE AFRICA REPORT

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N ° 10 0

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PICTURE OF THE MONTH Julius Maada Bio, candidate for the opposition Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) carries his daughter

as he casts his vote during the 31 March presidential run-off in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Maada Bio was sworn in as president four days later.

THE AFRICA REPORT

•

N ° 10 0

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Egypt

Tech Hubs : >50 20-49 10-19 5-9 1-4 No active hub

Kenya

Recent years of economic growth across the continent have not dampened enthusiasm for emigrating from many African countries. Ghana is set to be one of the world’s fastestgrowing economies in the world this year, but it topped a survey of people’s interest in moving to other countries. This shows that changes in headline numbers like gross domestic product often do not rapidly translate into improvements in livelihoods that would make people want to stay put.

Would you move to another country? (% of people who say they would if they had the money and opportunity)

Uganda

Ghana

Nigeria

Kenya

13 Zimbabwe

SOURCE: GSMA

Research from the mobile- Morocco Tunisia focused GSM Association 25 17 shows that the number of tech hubs in Africa grew from 314 in 2016 to 442 in 2017. 47% of them are incubators and accelerators, 27% are other kinds of tech hubs and 26% are co-working spaces. The cities with the most tech-space activity are Senegal Lagos, Cape 12 Town and Nairobi. The ones 24 that are growing the Côte d’Ivoire Ghana fastest – although often from a low 13 55 base – are Kinshasa, Nigeria Lusaka and Abidjan. Big US-based tech firms, like Google and Facebook, are also getting involved, with plans for an accelerator South Africa group and a tech hub in Lagos, respectively. All that is needed now 59 is more growth capital (see page 52).

ASPIRATIONS GRASS IS GREENER…

South Africa Senegal Tanzania

51 46 43

SOURCE: PEW RESEARCH CENTER

START-UPS LOOKING TO LEAPFROG

OLIVIA ACLAND/REUTERS

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SPOTLIGHT

Abiy Ahmed Ethiopia’s new premier – the first from his ethnic group – faces tough early challenges: reforming the military and responding to the calls for reform from his Oromia support base FOR ONCE IT WAS A NAILBITER. When Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s 42-year-old new prime minister, was announced winner of a secret ballot held by the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) on 27 March, the outcome had been far from a foregone conclusion. But, seemingly against the odds, Abiy won nearly two-thirds of the votes of his senior colleagues in the multi-ethnic coalition that has governed Ethiopia since sweeping

to power as a band of rebels in 1991. The unexpected March result – chief rival Demeke Mekonnen withdrew at the last moment – catapulted the charismatic politician from Oromia, the country’s largest and most populous region, into the history books. Abiy, who heads the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO), is the first OPDO politician in charge of the country since the EPRDF took power. More significantly

still, he is arguably the first national leader to identify as Oromo in modern Ethiopian history. Many observers reckon this will help bring a measure of calm to Oromia’s streets, which have been gripped by protests for more than three years. Many Oromos have long complained of marginalisation at the hands of highlanders: first the Amharas, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group, and more recently the Tigrayans, whose Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has dominated the ruling coalition for much of the past three decades. According to Shimelis Abdissa, a close colleague of Abiy’s in the OPDO, the new prime minister is “the man to face the challenges” confronting the country. Abiy and Lemma Megersa, Oromia’s president, are both hugely popular in their home region, where they are credited with reforming the once widely loathed ABIY’S BEGINNINGS 1976 Born in Jimma, Ethiopia 1993 Joined the military 2008 Became director of the Information Network Security Agency

TIKSA NEGERI/REUTERS

2015 Named science and technology minister

“Libya is France's Iraq ” Rony Brauman, co-founder of Médecins Sans Frontières, says Paris did not properly think about its intervention in the North African country and is now paying the price.

“The cost to this economy is so enormous that we can’t afford to continue with that ” Equity Bank chief executive James Mwangi wants the Kenyan government to abolish the interest rate cap.

R.GANGALE/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

27 March 2018 Elected prime minister after Hailemariam Desalegn resigned

BRIEFING 11

MO ABUDU An unstoppable force in Nigerian media, Mo Abudu, CEO of EbonyLife TV, has struck a threeseries deal with Sony to produce an action-focused drama based on the Dahomey Warriors, a group of female fighters.

CHILE EBOE-OSUJI

Zhao Boagang, a counselor at the Chinese embassy to Zimbabwe, is pleased that Harare changed its indigenisation plans. N ° 10 0

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AMEENAH GURIB-FAKIM

The man accused of plotting against former President José Eduardo Dos Santos is experiencing something of a renaissance. Miala has now become spy chief for Angola’s President João Lourenço.

After battling allegations of financial impropriety over a credit card provided by an NGO, Gurib-Fakim – who occupied the largely ceremonial post of president of Mauritius – jumped before being pushed in March.

FERNANDO GARCIA MIALA

“We are businesspeople who want to make profits ” •

The former head of South Africa’s tax service was the latest target of the Rampaphosa administration’s good governance drive. Moyane was suspended as head of the South African Revenue Service in mid-March.

Africa now controls the two highest-profile posts at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Gambia’s Fatou Bensouda is the chief prosecutor, and Nigerian judge Eboe-Osuji was elected the court’s president on 11 March.

Tom Gardner in Addis Ababa

THE AFRICA REPORT

TOM MOYANE

OPDO and adopting the demands of the protesters, including the recent release of thousands of political prisoners. Abiy also has the backing of many non-Oromos following an emollient inaugural address on 2 April, in which he preached unity and apologised for the killing of protesters. According to people from his hometown of Beshasha, Abiy has a history as a peacemaker: in the early 2000s the politician – son of a Muslim father and Christian mother – was sent home to calm tensions between the two religious communities. Abiy joined the EPRDF when he was still in his teens; he later joined the military, rising to lieutenant-colonel. In the late 2000s, he helped found the Information Network Security Agency, a controversial online surveillance network. Such a background may help him in the task of reuniting the bitterly divided coalition, and in winning the trust of those in the TPLF (and other factions) who opposed his candidacy to the bitter end. But his insider credentials may be a hindrance when it comes to delivering the sort of democratic reforms his supporters are demanding. “Abiy is highly indebted to the system,” notes a senior political analyst at an embassy in Addis Ababa. This may compromise his capacity – or, indeed, willingness – to take on the security establishment, which many activists wish to see radically reformed. It also makes him vulnerable to the charge of being a sell-out from activists who worry his reformism runs only skin deep. To counter this, he and his colleagues are likely to serve up early concessions, such as lifting the nationwide state of emergency that has been in place since February and requires a parliamentary vote to suspend.

FRED MATIANG’I Kenya's interior minister was forced to pay a fine after improperly expelling and stripping of his nationality Miguna Miguna, the lawyer who helped Raila Odinga’s mock inauguration this year.

EUROPEAN UNION

of worldwide turnover, or €20m – whichever is higher – is at stake for companies that flout the EU’s new General Data Protection Regulation, which comes into force on 25 May. Data protection is in the spotlight after the Facebook/Cambridge Analytica scandal.

Washington and Beijing have fired their first shots in a trade war – provoked by US President Donald Trump – that risks spiralling out of control. Trump’s government imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium, with Trump saying that China is unfair in its treatment of US companies and its encouragement of the theft of intellectual property. China responded with tariffs of its own on US agricultural goods, hoping to hurt farmers in states that support Trump. The US president says that he wants to get China to the negotiating table and is preparing an additional round of penalties for Chinese goods.

HASSAN AMMAR/AP/SIPA

SYRIA

Russian fury at airstrikes

The Syrian civil war entered a new chapter following the 7 April attack by Bashar al-Assad’s government on the city of Douma and the 14 April airstrikes by the US, France and Britain responding to claims that chemical weapons had been used. Just a short while earlier, US President Donald Trump said that his government would get out of Syria as soon as possible. However, Washington’s role in Syria has become a crucial test of the US government’s resolve in countering the influence of Russia and Iran, which both back the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. At a fiery meeting of the UN security council, where Russia accused the US of “diplomatic hooliganism”, the US ambassador to the UN said Washington was “locked and loaded” for further strikes if Assad used chemical weapons again. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin called the US-led attacks an “act of aggression” and warned that the proxy conflict could spill over into other areas if the Western countries launch another attack in Syria. Russia, backed by China and Bolivia, called ed. on the security council to condemn the airstrikes but was defeated HUNGARY

Rising right Campaigning against migration and the European Union, Hungarry’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his right wing allies won a two-thirds majority m in parliament on 8 April to return to power. The divided opposition has been complaining about threats to the rule of law and freedom of the press. p Orbán says his goal is to create an illiberal state, and he now has s the possibility of changing the constitution to strengthen the grip of his Fidesz party on power and clamp down on the country’s independent vo oices.

SAUDI ARABIA

“I believe

ABD RABBO AMMAR-POOL/SIPA

US/CHINA

Trade tensions

Rubble of the Syrian Scientific Research Centre, a target in the airstrikes

the Iranian supreme leader makes Hitler look ggood ood d” Crown Prince e Mohammed bin Salman is co ourting the West and seeking to iso olate Iran.

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HARARE INTERNATIONAL FESTIVAL OF ARTS 1-6 May

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi with AfDB president Akinwumi Adesina

AFSIC INVESTING IN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2-4 May LONDON | UK afsic.net

WORLD PRESS FREEDOM DAY 3 May AFRICAN CRISTAL FESTIVAL 3-4 May

AJIT SOLANKI/AP/SIPA

HARARE | ZIMBABWE Six days of local and foreign performing arts under the theme ‘We Count’. hifa.co.zw

AfDB ANNUAL MEETINGS 21-25 May BUSAN | SOUTH KOREA The African Development Bank (AfDB) takes its largest annual event back to the Asian continent – the fifth time the meetings are being held outside Africa – after the successful 2017 meetings at Gujarat in India. This year, the Convention and Exhibition Centre in the Korean port city of Busan will host over 3,000 delegates and participants under the theme ‘Accelerating Africa’s Industrialisation’. Discussions will be based on a new 228-page report released by the Bank highlighting the need for smart industrial policy and value addition to the continent’s raw materials. The meetings will also be held alongside the Korea-Africa Economic Cooperation (KOAFEC) ministerial conference, established in 2006 to promote economic relations between the East Asian powerhouse and Africa. Korea, which joined the Bank in 1982, is a model for African countries, having transformed from a recipient of development assistance to a significant donor country since the 1960s. afdb.org/en/annual-meetings-2018/

MARRAKECH | MOROCCO africancristal.com

NOLLYWOOD WEEK PARIS 3-6 May

TRAVEL INDABA 8-10 May CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA indaba-southafrica.co.za

PARIS | FRANCE nollywoodweek.com

AFRICAN INSURANCE ORGANISATION CONFERENCE 6-9 May ACCRA | GHANA african-insurance.org

NIGERIA INTERNATIONAL BOOK FAIR 7-12 May LAGOS | NIGERIA The NIBF promotes literacy and the book trade in Nigeria. nibfng.org

GAS TO POWER AFRICA CONGRESS 15-16 May CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA energycouncil.com/events/

18-19 May AFRICAN UTILITY WEEK 15-17 May AFRICA SME FINANCE FORUM 15-16 May

CAPE TOWN | SOUTH AFRICA african-utility-week.com

NAIROBI, | KENYA www.globalsmefinanceforum.org/ Africa-2018/

WEST AFRICA CIO SUMMIT 16 May

EAST AFRICACOM 15-16 May NAIROBI | KENYA ICT event covering telecoms, media, broadcasting and technology in the sub-region. tmt.knect365.com/eastafricacom/

LAGOS | NIGERIA Organised by the International Data Corporation, a one-day event for chief information officers on developing a blueprint for the region’s digital economy. idc-cema.com/eng/events

OXFORD | UK ‘Enough Rhetoric! Catalyzing an Era of Concrete Action’ is the theme of this year’s conference, organised by a team of Oxford students. oxfordafricaconference.com

KENYA POWER & ENERGY AFRICA 29-31 May NAIROBI | KENYA The Kenya-based event has participants from across East and Central Africa, and a solar show running alongside. expogr.com/kenyaenergy/

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E Eromo Egbejule Wes st Africa editor, The Africa Report

Where is Africa’s moral compass?

frica needs leaders to trace out the continent’s future and rally against breaching from outside or within. With the wave of insurgencies, civil wars and political upheaval in the 1990s, the need for such steadying hands and voices of reason was readily apparent. At the turn of the millennium, there were two such voices. But right now, are there any? In 1999, the ascension of Olusegun Obasanjo and Thabo Mbeki to the respective presidencies of Nigeria and South Africa one month apart marked the emergence of a new trajectory for Africa. But neither man had wholly impeccable principles. Under Obasanjo there were extrajudicial killings and an unsuccessful attempt to stay in power beyond the end of his two terms. Both men attempted to force out their deputies after their working relationships turned acrimonious. Under their watches, however, Africa’s two largest economies acted as joint watchmen for the greater good of the continent. Obasanjo and Sussex-trained Mbeki – who The Guardian newspaper described as ‘a masterful diplomat who could always understand his opponent’s viewpoint before he confronted it’ – became friends, helping to resolve crises across West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia) and Southern and Central Africa (the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Comoros, Angola and Zimbabwe). In July 1999, at the 35th summit of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in Algiers, both men spoke against coup d’états, firmly backing the ‘yellow card, red card’ approach – those who came to power on the back of coups would be first urged to return power democratically; if they refused, economic and diplomatic sanctions would be imposed.

‘African Renaissance’ agenda overseen by their predecessors was halted. It became a situation of every man for himself and his country alone, with no continental leadership. There have, of course, been pretenders to the throne. There was Muammar Gaddafi and his grand ‘United States of Africa’ coalition. That would have been fun to watch, if he had not been cut down by a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation military intervention. For a fleeting moment, Tanzania’s John Magufuli showed flashes of brilliance before revealing himself

Under Mbeki’s tenure as chairman of the OAU, the continental body morphed into the African Union (AU). And that time period was also important economically, as there was a lot of debt cancellation for poorer African countries. By 2008, Mbeki and Obasanjo were out of power. Their successors, Jacob Zuma and Goodluck Jonathan, had a fractious relationship that drew Nigeria and South Africa apart through a diplomatic conflict that is yet to be fully resolved. The THE AFRICA REPORT

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BRIEFING 17

as a true authoritarian, authorising crackdowns on opposition. He is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. In Botswana, Ian Khama, who is leaving behind one of Africa’s most vibrant economies, appeared to be the real deal and, in the eyes of many, still is. After United States president Donald Trump’s “shithole” comment, Khama’s government was one of only a few administrations to scold Trump openly. When there was a political stalemate in Zimbabwe late last year, Khama – who has repeatedly intervened in regional politics – urged 92-year old Robert Mugabe to step down for a younger leader. But news of Khama’s government arresting members of the press on sedition charges and the fact that 19% of the diamond-rich country still lives in poverty rarely make international headlines. Those things are proof that some giants have feet of clay. It is 2018 and we need new names – in a hat-tip to Zimbabwean novelist NoViolet Bulawayo. Who is worthy to step up to the plate? Consider for a second the intimidating Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s authoritarian strongman who recently emerged as chairperson of the AU. A darling of the West, he has been tasked with reforming the AU and pushing collaboration across a continent where travel is cumbersome and business practices remain convoluted.

There is no question about his ability to deliver on that – Rwanda is one of the best-performing economies globally, if the indices are to believed – but I see a man who has shackled most of the opposition in his native land as well as committed many grave sins in the neighbouring DRC too. For that, the responsibility of being Africa’s moral compass is too much for his lanky frame to bear. If Mbeki and Obasanjo were imperfect, Kagame’s multiple flaws run deep in his blood. Just ask Diane

It is 2018 and we need new names. Who is worthy to step up to the plate? Rwigara, the 36-year-old politician who is being held without bail on trumped-up charges of forgery and tax evasion, but whose real sin is having the audacity to criticise Saint Paul. In Accra, Nana Akufo-Addo has the look of a man who can help the continent. One of a select few politicians to have ousted an incumbent president democratically, he still has the goodwill of most of his countrymen. Will he seize the opportunity to guide Africa’s conscience? It was a pleasure to see Akufo-Addo ‘bully’ France’s President Emmanuel Macron at that press conference in Accra in December 2017 and press home the point about dependence on foreign aid. Akufo-Addo has been frequenting Nigeria, advocating for good governance in his eloquent speeches at well-attended forums and summits, but will he walk the talk? Or will he be like Muhammadu Buhari, running a particularly tone-deaf government just as corrupt, if no more so, than that of his predecessor? On the other side of the continent is Cyril Ramaphosa, former president Nelson Mandela’s chosen heir. Ramaphosa became president of South Africa in February and has been talking a great deal about land reform and the dismantling of oligopolies. In March, the government suspended Tom Moyane, the controversial taxman allied to former president Zuma – a preview of what could follow in the years to come. Rampahosa’s roots as a loved trade unionist and shrewd negotiator who helped with the transition from apartheid to democracy could make him a man of the people. But his billionaire status could mean that he falls into the familiar sin of corruption. Will he resist the temptation? Can Akufo-Addo and Ramaphosa juggle ‘senior brother’ duties on the continent with the role of being dutiful servants to the people who elected them? Can they reignite the fire of African renaissance and step into the big shoes of Nelson Mandela and Thomas Sankara, or the fair-sized ones of Obasanjo and Mbeki? Who will beat errant leaders like Magufuli, Pierre Nkurunziza, Buhari and Joseph Kabila into shape? There are so many questions and not enough answers.

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Imagining the future

Alternative

futures

The #FeesMustFall protest quickly gathered momentum across South Africa

By Nanjala Nyabola in Nairobi

he synchronicity of the shift of global economic power back to the East from the West, the galloping social inequities exacerbated in the 2007 financial crisis and the untrammelled pace of technological change present a revolutionary moment to activists around the world. Everywhere, they are using the technology of instant communication and transmission of complex data to attack and question political and economic authority. The prospect of universal access to information about what governments and

corporations are doing with our resources is changing the nature of politics and the old social compacts. In Africa, as elsewhere, this is upending traditional political parties and cutting across the interests of the elites that they represent. Staking out this new territory, a plethora of single-issue campaigns have grown up to powerful effect. Groups such as #RhodesMustFall seamlessly morphed into #FeesMustFall: signifying a shift from demanding the removal of a colonial relic to the call for the democratisation of access to education, with all its insurrectionary implications.

MARCO LONGARI/AFP

The continent is seeing the first tremors in a massive upswelling of change impacting society, politics, business and culture. It is being driven, like all revolutions, by the young and by the technology they wield

20 FRONTLINE | ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

Not only did these campaigns push the South African government to change course, they rapidly picked up international momentum – thanks in part to the hashtags. The #BringBackOurGirls campaign in Nigeria – in response to the 2014 kidnapping of the Chibok schoolgirls – exposed the complacency of the Abuja government towards its obligation to protect the citizenry. As #BringBackOurGirls reverberated across continents, it evidently contributed to the defeat of the hapless Goodluck Jonathan in the 2015 presidential elections.

Other activist groups – such as those campaigning against tax evasion and contract collusion between multinationals and corrupt government officials, environmental despoliation and for the bolstering of land rights – are eagerly exploiting the possibilities of the conjunction of a crisis among ruling elites and the power of a new popular information order. This all points to a new era of mass mobilisation powered by tech innovation and fast-track urbanisation. The struggles of farmworkers and land

rights activists are hitting home across Africa, forcing incremental concessions from governments. But the power of coordinated, well-informed urban protest movements in the mega-cities of Lagos, Johannesburg, Nairobi, Cairo, Addis Ababa and Kinshasa is taking activism to a new level. Already, protests against unfair property and sales taxes and failing public services are threatening local ruling classes. A new sense of economic nationalism, that African countries should claim a far bigger share of the value of

ANDELA/ROTIMI OKUNGBAYE

Afterschool clubs prepare students to solve real-life problems

Girl power in a tech world Around the continent, girls’ coding and hackathon clubs are training the software and app developers of tomorrow

n a Thursday at the Jokkor ‘Arizona’ labs in the YMCA building in the small Gambian town of Kanifing, just outside Banjul, Nyirma Darbo, who is 11 years old, and four of her friends are poring over computer screens, heads bent and furiously typing away. Darbo is a member of the Mozilla Club of Hackathon Girls, a 12-week fellowship for girls aged 8-18 who want to learn software development and coding. The main classes take place on Saturdays, but Thursdays are

for a special class on building mobile applications. When she first joined two years ago, Darbo started out learningcomputerbasics.She moved on to web development, where she mastered creating simple web pages using HTML and CSS. In a couple of weeks the training programme will be over. Armedwithhercertificate,she can look to expand her skills further and later find work in the young and growing Gambian tech community. Mozilla Club began three years ago as a community for

female software developers run by Juma Baldeh, then a 23-year-old programmer, to address the gender disparity in the technology sector. “Hackathon Girls started because in my university, we were few girls in the class and it was hard,” Baldeh tells The Africa Report. “What we were getting taught didn’t translate into the problems I wanted to use coding to solve. I called for a couple of other girls in my school and even other schools studying computer science and engineering courses to form a club.”

What is happening in Gambia is also taking place across West Africa and the continent. Around the same time the club was formed, Jjiguene Tech Hub, named using the Wolof word for ‘woman’ and run by women to empower young girls, was goingstronginDakar,thecapital of neighbouring Senegal. In Lagos, at the Girls Coding Africa hub, young girls from a slum on the periphery of the popular Yaba tech district learn from similar syllabi to those of their Gambian and Senegalese peers. Lolu Bodunwa, a product marketing manager with Google Nigeria, says these tightly focused programmes are essential because “the school system here doesn’t prepare students to solve real-life problems.” Ire Aderinokun, Nigeria’s first female Google developer expert, who is based in Lagos, says: “Women getting introduced to tech means that there will be better, unbiased tech products […]. It is important that there is representation, that girls know they can do anything it is they want to do. And because tech is diverse – [it covers] a lot more than web and application development – these fellowships are giving women an opportunity to choose a future for themselves.” Oluwatosin Adeoskan in Banjul

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ALTERNATIVE FUTURES | FRONTLINE 21

their mineral and hydrocarbon resources, is challenging international capital. It is also questioning the corrupt collusion between local elites and corporations. With this wind in their sails, this new generation of activists faces some tough strategic questions. Can their single-issue campaigns morph into broader social movements that could break the mould of post-independence politics?

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Solutions driven by the presidents’ syndicate have not delivered prosperity

their commercial interests and latterly to trumpet their social consciences. Sometimes these investigations snagged big international corporations such as the auditors at KPMG, which is now fighting for its reputation in South Africa. A great boost to this effort was the resilience of the country’s institutions, especially the office of the public protector and the constitutional court. With the exit of Zuma and his arraignment on corruption charges this year, a

“Lack of infrastructure should never stop our people from registering at universities” Julius Malema, leader of the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters party in South Africa

new chapter has opened. It points to a rocky political road ahead. Zuma’s followers are trying to mobilise on an ethnonationalist agenda in KwaZulu-Natal. President Cyril Ramaphosa, himself a billionaire with mining interests, is desperately trying to woo Malema and his militants back into the big tent of the ANC. If successful, it would be a huge blow against the country’s radical and popular protest movements. SHOESTRING REVOLUTION

MDUDUZI NDZINGI/SOWETAN/GALLO IM IMAGES/GETTY IMAGES

There is also the risk that they will get coopted by opportunistic political parties. Resource nationalism, once the clarion call of the militants in the Niger Delta fighting military regimes and their corporate allies, has been subsumed, at least rhetorically, into national government policy. As the populist regimes in Tanzania and Zambia put their demands for hiked royalties and tax takes to mining companies, the most probable outcome will be an opaque backroom deal with little discernible gain for working people. Significantly, both the Zambian and Tanzanian governments have ratcheted up repression of grassroots activists and critics of state corruption. As established political entities try variously to capitalise on or douse the new protest energy, activists are calibrating their collaboration with traditional civic activists in the trade unions and faith groups. The evolving landscape in South Africa shows the complexity of these relationships. Among the most radical groups in the country, Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters and the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union led an extra-parliamentary struggle against President Jacob Zuma’s government and its alliance with local mine owners. But as Zuma’s collusion with his business allies in the Gupta family escalated to threaten the interests of national and international capital, a weird new alliance took shape. Malema and his activists publicly confronted Zuma in ways that the mainstream of the governing African National Congress (ANC) were too scared to adopt. Much more quietly,, ANC dissidents collaborated with civicc activists to investigate the depths off political and commercial corruption,, primarily but not exclusively involvingg the Zuma and Gupta families. Manyy d of these investigations were financed by local corporations, keen to protectt

JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS

RESISTING THE POPULISTS

Outside South Africa – with its liberal constitution and battle-tested institutions – the going is rougher still. There are signs that the era of foreign-funded non-governmental organisations – under heavy attack in Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Tanzania and Kenya – is drawing to a close. Strong and brave local sources of finance for civic activism and social movements are thin on the ground. Yet the abiding strengths of the new activism are its resilience, innovation and ability to connect, nationally and internationally. In 2005, the idea of a protest developed primarily online would have been impossible across much of the world, where mobile phone and internet communication was prohibitively expensive. But the creativity

22 FRONTLINE | ALTERNATIVE FUTURES

of activists has changed that. From the Black Lives Matter protests in the US to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, organisers are using online platforms to organise, keep supporters informed and mobilise public sentiment. Before this, movements relied on physical meetings and door-to-door campaigns to inform citizens. That labour-intensive approach was an easy target for arrest and reprisals. Producing printed material was equally risky as Fati Abubakar, Nigerian photograper the charges for being in possession of whose project ‘Bits of Borno’ aims country. to change perceptions of the country ‘seditious material’ could rise to the level evel use of treason. Today, social movements u digital platforms like WhatsApp aand Signal to disseminate information. Th hat does not require a meeting or shieldiing participants from state surveillancee. These days, activists in the Democraatic Republic of Congo (DRC), Gabon aand Cameroon are finding that a protest with ithout a hashtag is unlikely to get attention traction on Facebook and Twitter, outside their countries. And without that attention, atrocities and reprisals from fuelling demands for octogenarian the state are brutal and swift. incumbent Abdoulaye Wade to step aside and hand over to younger leaders. A digital strategy is no guarantee Since 2017, persistent protests in of success. But the absence of one in Togo have brought the tiny country the context of falling international unprecedented international attention. attention to countries leaves activists Its news rarely registers regionally, let with a Sisyphean task. Used well, these platforms protect activists by keeping alone internationally. Nominally led by attention on the cause when the state the main opposition party, the weekly and biweekly protests call for the end of censors other media. Faure Gnassingbé’s 13-year presidency, Urban activism peaked during the Arab Spring, when in Tunisia and Egypt viewing it as an unwelcome continuation much of the political resistance was cultivated online. Online pressure sustained Inher2017bookTwitter and the momentum that eventually Tear Gas, techno-socioloended Compaoré’s 27-year rule gist Zeynep Tufecki talks to activists in the region who say that without the digital revolution, of his father Gnassingbé Eyadéma’s 38-year rule. Week after week, activists their campaigns would have foundered. show up in red or pink T-shirts, taking NEW BROOM ON TWITTER over boulevards, blowing whistles and South of the Sahara, the most successful chanting messages like “Faure must go!” Farida Nabourema, a 28-year-old youth-led political movements in recent years – Le Balai Citoyen in Burkina Faso activist and organiser who has become the face of the Togolese protests onand Y’en a Marre in Senegal – tapped into the coincidence of young populations line, explains: “[This] is a coalition of and the exponential growth of mobile efforts by political parties, civil society technology. Le Balai Citoyen cultivated organisations and trade unions to bring an active social presence that allowed down the military regime that has been it to broadcast its message directly to ruling Togo for over 51 years because we realised that the country wasn’t moving audiences with minimal state interferforward.” She is the founder of the ‘Faure ence. This online pressure sustained Must Go’ movement and executive dithe momentum that eventually ended rector of the Ligue Civile Togolaise, a president President Blaise Compaoré’s 27-year rule. In Senegal, Y’en a Marre’s coalition of groups advocating for the combining of art, music and popular restoration of the 1992 constitution. For culture with protest quickly gained the Anglophone world, Nabourema’s

tweets and Facebook posts are a key source of information on the season of discontent, a role that Nabourema did not seek but has embraced. Activism is in Nabourema’s bloodline. Her grandfather campaigned against the German and French colonial regimes, only retiring once independence was achieved in 1960. When the 1967 revolution brought in Eyadéma’s authoritarianism, her father took up the mantle – and was repeatedly arrested and harassed for participating in anti-regime movements.

“Radicalisation started because we did not invest in our people ”

SUNDAY ALAMBA/AP/SIPA

NET TWORKING THE ACTIVISTS

Yet Nabourema was almost entirely focu used on her studies until it became obviious that Faure would follow in his fath her’s footsteps, overturning the constitu ution and crushing any resistance while pursuing a lifelong presidency. “My My father was the vice-president of the electoralcommissionforthe2015general electionandheresignedfromhisposition because he said that it wasn’t worth it – [the regime] will never allow a free and fair process,” she recalls, realising that her only hope of changing Togo would be to help other people in the country come to the same realisation. There are significant differences between Nabourema’s activism and that of her father and grandfather. “I am Togo’s very first cyber activist,” she says. “I started using social media in 2009. I founded a blog in 2009 about Togo when I was in the US, where it was easier and cheaper than in Togo. And from 2009 and 2016, my blog was the most popular Togolese blog, focusing mostly on politics.” Cyber activist is a broad term that Nabourema uses to refer to the thousands of activists who are using digital platforms to build movements for social change. With the advent of Facebook and Twitter, more political organising is shifting online, and activists like Nabourema are demanding that this round of protests in Togo, unlike the many that have gone before, be seen and heard around the world. Nabourema has travelled to work with other West African groups, which speaks to another key characteristic of this new wave of advocacy – transnationalism. Activists are finding ways in which their experiences are connected and forming links beyond national boundaries. From its origins in Missouri, Black Lives Matter became a rallying cry for African refugees in Israel protesting racism. It inspired the #RhodesMustFall movement in South THE AFRICA REPORT

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Spiritual awakenings Young, hip and educated Africans are finding new meaning in the teachings of traditional religions traditional religion preaches peace and harmony in all forms.Beforetheintroduction of other religions, Yorubas lived comfortably with each other,” she says. “The world is now a global village, the good gospel of the faith must be propagated via publicity, public enlightenment.” In Johannesburg, Ifawemimo’s peer Nokulinda ‘Gogo’ Mkhize is bringing the ancient practice of bone-throwing to a digital audience. Like Ifawemimo,

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Eromo Egbejule in Ibadan No longer relevant: the colonial stamp of Christianity

Africa, in which students called for the removal of iconography celebrating the racist foundations of the state. Le Balai Citoyen activists have travelled to the DRC to connect with activists there, supporting the formation of La Lucha, a group campaigning to end Joseph Kabila’s contested 15-year rule. At the formation of the Organisation of African Unity in 1963, African countries decided to retain colonial borders, triggering a shift in political outlook that persists today. With the notable exception of the anti-racist struggles in THE AFRICA REPORT

Mkhize discovered her spiritual gift as a teenager and has nurtured it. The hip, 33-year-old sangoma (Zulu for ‘traditional healer’) is the second daughter of Zweli Mkhize, a senior African National Congress politician. Leopard pendant around her neck, she throws bones to divine the problems of her clients, face to face and via Skype. She also regularly teaches seminars about mental health and intergenerational trauma. Consequently,

SUNDAY ALAMBA/AP/SIPA

mitonadeIfawemimo was introduced to Or i s ha sp i r i tua l traditions by her parents, both long-time devotees, at the age of five. Now a young adult, the Yemoja priestess has begun spreading word of her religion, first to her contemporaries in Ibadan, north of Lagos, then to those further away and in the diaspora through social media. Worship of the Orisha divinities and Ifá divination are elements of the traditional religion of the Yoruba ethnic group spread across Nigeria, Benin and Togo. They are also widely practised in Cuba, Haiti and Brazil – countries with large populations of African descent. With colonial administrators came a decline in the religion in Africa and a rise in Christianity and Islam. Ifawemimo’s predecessors practised in secret or in small, rural towns. The priestess is now doing her best to mentor young folk like her. She regularly discusses the plurality of the African religious space and the need to spread word of the faith. “Ifá/Orisha is not a religion but a spirituality. The Yoruba

she has emerged as a celebrity offline and online in a little under a decade of professional practice. On social media, she has amassed 20,000 followers on Twitter and 10,000 more on Instagram who hang ontohereveryword.Mkhize’s Youtube channel is, in millennial parlance, popping. Both women represent an increasing number of educated young people advocating a return to the roots. Ifawemimo is a graduate in economics, while Mkhize has a degree in geography and developmentstudies.“People think that because I have a university education I cannot be a sangoma, but they are ignorant,” Mkhize says.

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Namibia, Zimbabwe and South Africa, political advocacy became more and more inward-looking and focused on fighting individual state struggles. The current wave of advocacy resists that, building communities of activists connected by their political outlook rather than their national identity. In some ways, it is a counter-narrative to the increasing use of international platforms like the African Union to protect the interests of powerful actors. In 2014, Kenya began lobbying for African countries to quit the International Criminal

Court (ICC) in response to charges of crimes against humanity for President Uhuru Kenyatta and deputy president William Ruto, a call that was embraced by many presidents on the continent. Yet grassroots organisations in countries like the DRC and Burundi saw the ICC as their only hope against increasing state violence and unresponsive institutions at home, underscoring the gap between the interests of citizens and their leaders. More activists began looking outside their borders to build networks of groups with similar interests.

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In 2016, Togo's Nabourema travelled to Gambia to meet and support activists calling for the end of Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year rule. “I knew it was dangerous, but I wanted to go. And I was there until Jammeh left,” she says. “I learnt that there was so much effort made prior to the elections. To even manage to win elections organised by Jammeh in the most complicated situation, it took years of advocacy.” Without this African outreach, Nabourema argues that she would never have invested so heavily in building an offline structure – ‘know your rights’ training and other awareness-raising initiatives – to support the online work. PULLING THE PLUG

Successful digital activism relies on the fundamentals of political organising as well as mastering the nuances of electronic communication. Threats to this new form of activism are as common as the opportunities. Nationwide internet shutdowns are the go-to response for states dealing with political upheaval. Between 2015 and 2016, there were more than 30 internet shutdowns in Africa. And the government switched off the internet in parts of Ethiopia for more than two years in response to anti-regime protests. In response, hacktivists – internet activists who specialise in building tools to circumvent state or institutional control – developed platforms like FireChat, an app that uses Bluetooth connectivity to build internet networks and allow people to stay online. Still, for every example of a successful protest in the digital era, there are at least 10 examples of those that fail. The most successful movements are those that use digital platforms to enhance communication while maintaining significant effort offline, as Nabourema has learnt. “These platforms have been very helpful for me – 80% of the people that I have worked with on the struggle for the last few years I have never met physically,” she notes. “[But] it has been a cocktail of events. Teachers have been striking for months. Students haven’t been in class for even half of the time. Medical doctors and practitioners have also been participating in the strike. Politicians are also organising protests. We see the regime as a tree, and we feel that it is rooted very deeply. We have to be able to knock them down at all levels.” Additional reporting by Eromo Egbejule in Lagos, Crystal Orderson in Cape Town and Billie McTernan in Accra

About half the top 40 companies on the JSE are foreign-owned: this needs to change

Afro-nomic alternatives

The technological era offers an opportunity for Africa to build a new economic framework, radically different from the Western capitalist model

s artificial intelligence, communications technology and robotics advance exponentially, it is time to be radical. Let’s take apart the Western capitalist model superimposedonAfrica–bothinterms of production and distribution – and build a new economic and political framework that takes into account our history and culture, its strengths of community and identity. This is revolutionary, as are the times in which we live, but it is a constructive rather than destructive project. As we try to make sense of the pressures of new technology on the human psyche and our sense of purpose as productive individuals, we should reach back into the philosophies, science and religions of Africa. This would be a new anthropological quest, one not shrouded in colonialism, but a search for the ideas, principles and behaviours that can guide humanity when technological disruption puts it to the test.

This project is about aligning social activism, spirituality and economic productivity. Africa can generate and incubate revolutionary scientific and educational ideas. Take traditional medicine, the multifarious plant and seed varieties that have laid the basis for the global pharmaceutical industry. We have to protect, even strengthen our precious biodiversity. Our health – global health – depends on it. A closer survey of African diet and lifestyle – and the absence or low occurrence of certain ailments – would be instructive for medical science. More widely, the Yoruba system of Ifá offers a platform of holistic learning, as opposed to focusing on discrete disciplines. Across Africa, there is often a far closer integration between education, culture and spirituality, offering lessons to other societies plagued by social alienation. New technology could provide the channels to disseminate these ideas THE AFRICA REPORT

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GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/AFP

Jason Njoku, co-founder of iROKOtv, Nigerian entrepreneur, film magnate and African start-up investor

For example, Farmerline, a Ghanaian softwarecompany runby Alloysius Attah, builds technologies to provide farmers with vital inputs and access to markets. There is also Reliance HMO, a Nigerian start-up co-founded by Dr. Femi Kuti and Opeyemi Olumekun, focusing on telemedicine, data science and mobile technology to provide affordable and accessible healthcare and insurance. These entrepreneurs show how technology can offer solutions to overcome what would previously have taken decades to fix or have prompted the bureaucratic intervention of governments. Closely linked to this is the projection of Africa’s soft power, its art and culture, through communications technology. Compared with measures of the continent’s gross domestic product – above Italy’s but below France’s – its cultural projection punches way above

and ways of being. Those technological advances are revolutionising the spread of education and inquiry in Africa. The internet and mobile platforms will drive this tide of new information, replacing old brick and mortar schools. Africa’s mobile networks can do for education what the pioneering technology has done for money transfers and the cashless society. It will be a pedagogical revolution. Out will go rote learning and the primacy of written exams; in will come a relentless spirit of inquiry, imagination and intuition. Universal access to knowledge, delivered by solar power and mobile internet, will light the creative spark in the next generation of schoolchildren. Our chronic lack of infrastructure is an opportunity to start from scratch. The focus on export routes – established under the colonial trading system – is economically important, but we also have to address the need for transport within countries, within the continent’s trading zones.

Number of feature films produced annually 1,600

ENTREPRENEURS BRIDGE GAPS

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1,000 SOURCE: WORLD BANK, 2016

For example, it may be more efficient and cheaper to process coffee in Rwanda and package and export it from Angola. Without a continental system of transport, along the lines of those in China or North America, Africa’s productive capacity is being held back. Young entrepreneurs are working on ways to overcome these yawning gaps.

Bollywood

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Nollywood Hollywood

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“Nollywood producers are making more money now than they ever have done ”

its weight. A decade ago, Nigeria’s film industry, rough and ready as it was, produced more films than Hollywood. Since then, Nollywood’s quality and distribution have sharply improved. Movies such as The Wedding Party have won international recognition and premiered at events such as the Toronto International Film Festival. Likewise, music like Afrobeat has gone global. Afrobeat artists perform at sold-out concerts at London’s Royal Albert Hall. CULTURAL CONNECTEDNESS

More importantly, African cultural enterprises are joining up the continent. Within hours of Davido releasing a track in Lagos, clubbers are dancing to it in Nairobi. Equally, recognition for African culture is growing in the diaspora: a Beyoncésong quotes from Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s precepts on feminism, and Beyoncé’s musicians played Fela Kuti’s legendary Zombie track at her headline performance at California’s Coachella festival in April. Right now, Africa’s soft power has a demonstration effect. But it will have the numbers on its side too. Africa is home to the youngest population in the world; about 60% of its people are under 24, according to the United Nations. The African Development Bank forecasts that the youth population will hit 850 million by 2050, at a time when the world population could hit 9.8 billion. That means Africa’s youth would be about 10% of the world’s population. That is enough to concentrate minds. Culture and communications will be critical in ensuring that Africa reaps a demographic dividend. Reaching out to the diaspora and integrating them into the continental project, at a time when other regions are retreating into narrow nationalism, would carry economic and political weight. The role of the overseas Chinese in reconnecting the People’s Republic to the rest of the world is instructive. Building those networks could happen much faster now given Africa’s greater openness and the ubiquity of communications technology. The missing piece – the transmission of high-quality technical and liberal arts education for tens of millions from generation to generation – can now be put in place. World-class institutions such as Ashesi University in Ghana are just the first step. Africa must seize the opportunity. Funmi Adebayo

INTERVIE W

Emmerson Mnangagwa President of Zimbabwe

Open for business … and now politics For the first time, President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his economic team took part in a roundtable interview with The Africa Report, covering elections, international diplomacy, truth and reconciliation, and the financial agenda

By Patrick Smith and Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

LONG MARCH TO THE TOP 15 September 1942 Born in Zimbabwe 1962 Joins ZAPU as guerilla in the war for independence 1980-1988 Minister of state security of Zimbabwe 1988-2000 Minister of justice of Zimbabwe 2009-2013 Minister of defence of Zimbabwe

24 November 2017 Assumed office as President of Zimbabwe

KEITA MOHAMED

December 2014 – November 2017 First vice-president of Zimbabwe

elter-skelter rounds of business deals, diplomacy and political gladhanding havebeentakingtheir toll on Team Mnangagwa since last November. When President Emerson Mnangagwa arrived in Abidjan for the Africa CEO Forum with his business and ministerial delegation , they had flown in variously from Europe, China, India, Russia, and the United States. After theForum,Mnanagagwaflewback to Zimbabwe, pausing briefly to commission a power station, and then on to Beijing and a summit with President Xi Jinping. In dollar terms Mnangagwa’s efforts are paying off. Of the more than $7bn of direct new investment in Zimbabwe, some $4bn is earmarked for a new platinum mine. Other commitments target gold and diamond mining. After four months on the case, Mnangagwa set out Zimbabwe’s roadmap to The Africa Report: “First and foremost, we must make sure that Zimbabwe shall never have food insecurity again.

We have developed the model of agriculture that guarantees food security in Zimbabwe. Secondly, we must resuscitate industry and commerce. To do so we need to embrace the international community so they support us.” At the heart of this is the ‘Command Agriculture’ policy. This is not, Mnangagwa insists, a form of deep-state economic conscription, but rather a government-coordinated response to the needs of the cash-strapped small farmers for seeds, fertilisers and market access. “We need two million tonnes of grain. [Around] 1.5 of that is consumption for the year; 500,000 tonnes is strategic reserve for the year. We need 400,000 hectares of land to produce the two million tonnes of grain. But at the end of the day, we have something like 1.6 million hectares of land under plough.” Mnangagwa, himself a substantial farmer, says the government will supervise and finance grain production only on the critical 400,000 hectares.

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The main political test will come in July, when Mnangagwa has promised that the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) will hold national elections. For the first time since 2002 – when the Commonwealthobserverssharply criticised the political process – the government has invited the United States, the European Union, Australia and the Commonwealth to monitor the elections.

THE AFRICA REPORT

WOOING THE SENATORS

Almost as eagerly as he pronoun ces Zimbabwe open for business, Mnangagwa has been promising clean and non-violent elections this year. Whatever his own com mitments to the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, he knows that should the elections fail the international health test, then the next round of really big investors will stay away. And there would be no end to the government’s financial arrears logjam with the World Bank and the African Development Bank. An important piece of the puzzle is the US government and its Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZDERA), which rules out official support for Harare unless certain political conditions are met. Washington is more sceptical than its European counterparts about Mnangagwa’s reform pledges. Senators Jeff Flake and Chris Coons pushed through an amend menttotheZDERAsettingoutvery specific conditions for the lifting of the US veto on fresh loans and aid for the Zimbabwe government. It was particularly critical of any mil itary involvement in the elections. Mnagagwa’s response was to invite Senator Flake and other critics to Harare to meet his officials, the ZEC, opposition parties and local human rights groups. He pushed back hard on the matter of the military’s role in the election. “They talk about there are mil itary people in ZEC. If a person joins the army at the age of 18 but at the age of 28 he resigns – per haps he’s becoming an accountant or a medical doctor and he joins a parastatal – he is not counted as military,” argues Mnangagwa.

“If you are going to say anybody who has a military background cannot be seen in a democracy, then that is not a country. In that case I will be chucked out because my background is military.” After their meetings with Mnangagwa and opposition pol iticians in early April, Senators Flake and Coons appeared more upbeat,andmorewillingtofallinto line with the assessments of other organisations such as the African Union, the EU and the Southern AfricanDevelopmentCommunity. Flake kept his options open when speaking to the press: “Nothing will please us more than to recommend to the President that these sanctions are all to be lifted, and the US and Zimbabwe can have full diplomatic relations and remove individuals from that sanctions list, but that depends, as we all know, on what happens in the upcoming months." AttheCEOForum,Mnangagwa, together with finance minister Patrick Chinamasa, reserve bank governor John Mangudya and agriculture minister Perence Shiri, sat down with The Africa Report for a round-table interview.

TAR: Are you surprised by the support for your government, especially from countries that had imposed sanctions on your predecessor’s regime? EMMERSON MNANGAGWA: In politics, there are no permanent enemies, only permanent inter ests. Many countries in the past did not have good relations with us. We are happily surprised that they're embracing us, so we are embracing them. [With] those

Zimbabwe, as small as we are, cannot belong to the West nor belong to the East countries that stood with us during the hard 18 years, we are consolidating our relationships. But we inform them that we need new friends. Zimbabwe, as small as we are, cannot belong to the West nor belong to the East. However, China is one of Zimbabwe’s strongest allies? That is correct. Of old friends who stood by Zimbabwe during the hard times, China is one. I’m a THE AFRICA REPORT

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Patrick Chinamasa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Perence Shiri and John Mangudya, flanked by The Africa Report’s Nicholas Norbook (left) and editor Patrick Smith (right)

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more important to control our land rather than keep our land in foreign hands. Today, in grain and in cotton, production levels have exceeded what was being produced during the Ian Smith regime. Which means now our task, especially under my administration, is to make land productive, modernise agriculture, invite investors at the production level. How are you boosting production levels now? PATRICK CHINAMASA: The tobacco industry is now dominated by small-scale farmers. The small-scale farmers’ production is now more than what used to be produced by the commercial farmers. What has sustained them isfinancingthroughcontractfarming. Through the Reserve Bank there’s now a facility to assist the small-scale farmers to grow their tobacco through drip irrigation. That project is going very well.

The land issue has dominated Zimbabwe’s politics. Can your government resolve it? In the 15-year bitter war which we fought, [land] was the major grievance. The way our forefathers lost their land to the colonial settlers from Britain. After the Lancaster House agreement, we were given 10 years not to change anything, and we complied with that. […] I was made minister of justice, so I begin crafting legislation to acquire land without compensation. That did not please the British. Then the sanctions were brought on us. But we felt it was necessary to correct that land imbalance – take the land, give it to the rightful owners.

graduateof their military academy. Since my inauguration, I paid visits tomypeersintheSouthernAfrican DevelopmentCommunity(SADC) and then on the African continent. But the first visit outside Africa is to China – that is significant.

Are you saying that you have succeeded politically in giving land back to the people? The people became happy. The land and the people united. In that process, production went down drastically. But we felt that it was

Zimbabwe Fiscal Income and Expenditure (% of GDP) Other expenditure Non-tax Revenue

Wages and Salaries Tax Revenue

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SOURCE: IMF

Why are you holding elections this year? Why didn’t you form a government of national unity to addresstheeconomiccrisisfirst? There was only change in one political party, the ruling party. Nothing else has changed. I am completing the mandate of that party, which ends about the 21st or 22nd of July this year. This is when we are going to have our elections. This time I have opened these elections to international observers. In the past, we used to have observers from SADC and the continent, the African Union and a few selected countries. But we have said now we don’t need any violence, and I would like all political parties in Zimbabwe who would like to participate in these elections to commit themselves to nonviolence. So we have opened up for the United Nations. They can come, the EU can come.

Andhowhaveinvestorsresponded to the new dispensation? During past decades, the maximum foreign direct investment was $400-$600m per year. But in the last three months, it was over $7bn in committed investment. For those who are brave and want to make money, this is the time. We want to catch up with our colleagues in the region in terms of infrastructure. Our roads must talk to the roads of South Africa, the roads of Botswana, roads of Zambia and so on. Our railway system must do the same. We must modernise and refurbish all this infrastructure.

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How does the lack of a national currency limit your economic strategy? Will you restore the Zimbabwe dollar? The biggest challenge we face is that we don’t have a currency of our own. We have no instrument of growth because we don’t print US dollars. That also leads to shortages. We are accelerating all the reforms that are necessary to get us to a point where we have our own currency. This includes having to address the fiscal deficit. Out of every $100 of revenue we collect, 90% of it goes to wages. That is a structural weakness in our budget. We are also addressing issues to do with low production across all sectors and accessing capital on the international markets and building reserves. We are accelerating reforms – including state enterprise reforms – and [addressing] issues about the ease and cost of doing business. So as a result of all of these reforms, there is the normalisation of political relations. When all these processes which we are doing in parallel are achieved, we hope to be in a position where we can have our own currency. Then we can be treated like any other country.

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So how are you financing the government? You’re spending all this money on salaries. You have a health service that needs medicine. What you need to appreciate about Zimbabwe is that a lot of the wealth is now being created in the

SVEN TORFINN/PANOS-REA

What is your strategy to manage your debt and rejoin international financial institutions? P.C.: We cleared our arrears to the International Monetary Fund, and the rule is that we must address our indebtedness to the Paris Club creditors and bilateral creditors. We are in the process of mobilising resources to clear arrears to the World Bank and to the African Development Bank (AfDB). In our conversation with the World Bank – the arrears come to $1.2bn – we have been saying we have expectations that when we clear the arrears, we should get new money into the economy. Since January, the World Bank and the AfDB are undertaking an exercise to determine our needs across all sectors. That will inform what new money they can consider pumping in to resuscitate and revive our economy.

STRINGER/AFP

Should Zimbabwe join the South African rand zone? JOHN MANGUDYA: If you look at the structure of Zimbabwe’s imports, most are in US dollars. Fuel, that takes the bulk of foreign currency. Electricity comes from SouthAfrica,butwepayUSdollars. So it doesn’t make any business sense [to join the rand zone]. What makes sense is to ensure that we improve productivity in Zimbabwe. Because of the use of multiple currencies, Zimbabwe has become very uncompetitive. We cannot devalue. This is why we have introduced in Zimbabwe the export incentive scheme. Why have an export incentive scheme? It is to provide a discount to those companiesexporting.Theproblem which we are facing now is that the demand for foreign exchange has gone up so much because the economy is expanding. We’ve dollarised, but we have no access to long-term foreign finance.

informalsector.Butastheinformal sector intersects with the formal sector, that’s how we get our revenue to sustain our operations. But in terms of capital development and infrastructure, much of it has been through loan financing. His excellency[PresidentMnangagwa] will be commissioning a 300MW power station just completed by a Chinese contractor through loan financing from China Exim Bank. Whenwillyoureleasearoadmap for the elections? How much more work needs to be done on voter registration, and will the register be publicly available? E.M.: We have introduced biometric voter registration. [...] There was an outreach programme whichended on 12January andwe extended it again for another two months, which ended in March. So now they are uploading and preparing the voters’ rolls. When that is done and is published, this is when I must make a proclamation of the general elections.

Top: Harare hopes to sustain its mood of optimism Above: Small-scale tobacco farmers are the backbone of the economy

How are you getting on with the opposition these days? I was pleasantly surprised when almost all the opposition leaders attended my inauguration. I felt very good, and there was such chemistry with us. […] In any democracy, in a family, in a nation, you don’t always agree. This is how democracy is – the best argument should win the day. I accept the opposition; I have no problem with them. In fact, the more they interrogate and make constructive criticism of our administration, [the more] I like it because I correct myself and I continue ruling. You have asked parties to commit to nonviolence. Do you intend to establish a South African-style truth and reconciliation commission? Our new constitution provides forthecreationofthenationalhealing commission. We’ve created it. So they must go and listen to the grievances of the people across the board. They’ve just begun. I will not determine what report they are going to bring back. They are holdingpublichearingscoveredby the press. It’s the creation of an environment of transparency, openness,brotherhood,sisterhood,love and unity among ourselves. We must continue talking to each other. We mustn’t say ‘them’ and ‘us’. We must always be us together. That’s the philosophy we want to put across […]. We don’t need institutions forcing people to love each other. It must be through dialogueandconversationswithall groups. I give servant leadership to the country. I must be a listening president, and it’s working very well in our situation.

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NIGERIA

The PDP’s long road back to power

Is the PDP a government-in-waiting or has it waited too long to repair the damage done under the government of Goodluck Jonathan?

tarting with an apology for past publicity secretary Olisa Metuh, media misdeeds, it quickly morphed tycoon Raymond Dokpesi and former presidential adviser Dudafa Waripamointo a row with rivals over reOwei – who it accused of diverting state sponsibility for grand corruption. In funds. Secondus promised to sue his opsum, it was not an auspicious start to ponents for defamation, but the political the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) moment was gone. APC, one; PDP, nil. campaign to win back the presidency in next year’s national elections. Once WAITING FOR APC MISTAKES claiming to be the biggest political party in Africa, the PDP is fighting for its future. That does not augur well for the PDP. It Its problems go far deeper than the is relying unduly on the rule that govlate-March apology fiasco, but that epi erning parties lose elections rather than opposition parties win them. For now, sode points to the PDP’s weakness as a the PDP lacks a clear strategy to wrest national political organisation and its power at the centre from its bitter rival. lousy image. The apology tour started Overwhelmingly, its members argue that with the PDP’s Prince Uche Secondus’s the APC will make enough mistakes to admission: “I hereby, as the national chairman, do admit that the PDP made a prompt an implosion. That will, say PDP lotofmistakes.” Developinghisargument, strategists, send disgruntled governors, ahead of a partisan attack, Secondus senators, assembly members and accontinued: “We have passed through tivist members scurrying back to their political roots in the former ruling party. all our challenges. We were sanctioned None of that looks inevitable, even by Nigerians at the polls in 2015 […]. We if there are likely to be several political have learnt from our mistakes, unlike the All Progressives Congress (APC) that will make misThe PDP has an impressive takes and lie to cover it.” field of politicians from which By avoiding the detail of its to choose its candidate misdeeds and making no reference to the grand cordefections in the next few months as ruption under the PDP’s time in power, the campaign heats up. So far, there Secondus’s grand confession misfired. has been no open rebellion of senior It triggered rapid rebukes from the governing APC, whose Lagos godfather, politicians in the APC in response to Bola Tinubu, took time off from his Buhari’s announcement that he wants 66th birthday celebrations to hit back, to run for a second term next year. dismissing the apologia as a crude tactic Few expect a serious challenge to to elicit electoral advantage. Joining in, Buhari’s nomination at the APC’s party congress towards the end of the year. President Muhammadu Buhari’s office In contrast, the PDP is yet to coalesce advised Nigerians to ignore the apology and demand that the PDP should return around a frontrunner. Yet one of the all the “stolen funds” in its possession. PDP’s top strategists, Demola Rewaju, Quickly, the ground shifted into a tells The Africa Report: “I think the PDP stands a huge chance of winning in debate about how corrupt the PDP 2019, having addressed several internal government was under former presiissues, renounced the previous culture of dent Goodluck Jonathan. Worse still, imposition and apologised to Nigerians the APC published a list of politicians who have realised the APC has failed.” – including Secondus, the PDP’s former

And the PDP has an impressive field of politicians from which to choose its presidential candidate, insists Rewaju: “Everyone vying to be the PDP’s presidential candidate atpresentis more qualified for the office than the incumbent.” His optimism is shared by Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers State and de facto leader of the PDP. Wike, who installed his protégé Secondus as chairman, has been crisscrossing the country and extending handshakes across the fabled River Niger. In the past six months, Wike met with Sa’adu Abubakar, the Sultan of Sokoto and the country’s most influential Muslim and traditional ruler. Wike also had intense discussions with Aminu Tambuwal, the Sokoto State governor who defected to the APC from the PDP five years ago. A seasoned and widely liked operator, Tambuwal knows how to win friends and influence people. At one stage, he was the consensus choice to run as presidential candidate for the APC should Buhari throw in the towel. Now Tambuwal is biding his time, making few public statements about his intentions. Wike has the charisma and proclivity for deal-making of his predecessor and THE AFRICA REPORT

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arch-rival, Rotimi Amaechi. Already, Wike is seen as the chief campaign manager for the PDP’s yet-to-be-decided northern candidate for the presidency. When The Africa Report met him on a recent swingthroughLondon, heexuded confidence about the party’s prospects in 2019. It would again, he said, sweep the Niger Delta states and the south-east, as well as making deep inroads into the APC’s support base. Wike recalled how Amaechi’s defection, along with four other state governors including Kwara’s Bukola Saraki – the current president of the Senate – helped defeat Jonathan ahead of the

SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF NIGERIA

Nigeria’s 36 State Governors by party afﬁliation

24 11 1 All Progressives Congress (APC) People’s Democratic Party (PDP) All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) THE AFRICA REPORT

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PDP chairman Uche Secondus (second left) and Rivers State governor Nyesom Wike (third left)

2015 polls. Now Wike wants to seduce Saraki, who has presidential ambitions, and Tambuwal back to the PDP fold. Those targeted for the PDP’s seduction campaign have to make some unsentimental judgements about which way the political wind is blowing. Despite the widespread criticism thrown at the government for the sluggish economy and petrol shortages, the continuing conflict in the north-east and the eruption of deadly herder-farmer clashes in the Middle Belt and beyond, President Buhari is the most popular politician in northern Nigeria since the Sardauna of Sokoto, Ahmadu Bello. With the power of incumbency – and unless another bout of ill-health intervenes – Buhari is the clear favourite to win next year. Those realities have dissuaded most aspiring northern politicians in the APC from throwing their hats in the ring. The one exception is senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, leader of the over-twomillion-strongKwankwasiyyamovement spanning Kano, Jigawa and a few other states in the north-west. As the outgoing

governor of Kano State, Kwankwaso delivered 1.9 million votes from the state’s registered 2.1 million electorate for Buhari in the 2015 elections. Since then, Kwankwaso has fallen out with his successor and former deputy, Umar Ganduje, who is now an ultraloyalist to Buhari. Although Kwankwaso has been sidelined in the state party machinery, he remains influential in the north. This is why the APC worries about Kwankwaso’s mysterious presidential campaign. It is clearly under way, but Kwankwaso is yet to disclose on what party platform he will be running. Although Kwankwaso, over a decade younger and with a strong record as governor, is one of the few who could mount a credible challenge to Buhari for the APC nomination, the PDP is also courting him assiduously. Kwakwaso was second only to Buhari in the APC’s primaries in 2014. Another key factor for the PDP is the return of James Ibori, one of the most influential politicians in the Niger Delta. Jail time in Britain has not much diminished Ibori’s political standing, and repentant sinners seem to be a theme in the 2019 elections. And Ibori, whom Wike has already visited, has deep connections with the northern elite. Even from his jail cell, Ibori was able to orchestrate the coming to power of a new governor in Delta State – Dr Ifeanyi Okowa – to replace the maternal cousin he installed in the governor’s mansion. With Ibori and Wike at the helm of the party, the PDP’s grip on the Niger Delta states will be hard to break. ATIKU SPRINGS INTO ACTION

Yet the star in the PDP’s national firmament and its frontrunner for the presidential nomination is former vice-president Atiku Abubakar. Announcing his ambition to run in 2019, Atiku has embarked on an international campaign to reposition himself as an economic reformer and technocrat. Fixing up a string of speaking engagements in London in mid-April, which coincided with Buhari’s visit to the Commonwealth summit, Atiku has the resources and a certain political flair. However, he also hassomeheavyweightpoliticalfoes,such as former president Olusegun Obasanjo. The PDP’s Rewaju says that ultimately it will come down to a two-horse race: “Whoever will win the PDP presidential nomination is already in the PDP at this time, and I believe it will be between

34 POLITICS

Alhaji Sule Lamido and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. I am partial to Sule Lamido because of his ideology, his antecedents as a governor and former foreign affairs minister, as well as his abiding loyalty to the PDP.”

Serial defector Atiku Abubakar, back in his APC days

In one of its rare flashes of political imagination, the PDP has launched its ‘Generation Next’ campaign targeted at youthful voters. An early supporter of that plan is 28-year-old Ndi Kato, who is running on the party’s ticket for a seat in the Kaduna State house assembly: “The PDP is trying to push young people who have a lot to offer […]. It’s given me a platform to express myself and connect with other politicians, encouraging me to run for office,” she says. Kato says the party’s established leadership is ageing and many middle-aged Nigerians were reluctant to go into politics, uncertain about the durability of the civilian political era. She adds: “So there is that gap and the need to fill it with young leaders who will rise through the ranks.” Accordingly, Kato is confident of victory next year: “I think the present government is very woeful […] taking Nigeria back 20 years […] the level of migration at this point is terrible. I’m in politics because I want to see things get better. We’re looking at a lack of capital projects, a tanking economy.” Cheta Nwanze, head of research at SBM Intelligence, concurs with many of Kato’s points about the state of the country, but he differs in his conclusions: “There is a lot that someone aiming to upturn the status quo can campaign with. To put it bluntly, Nigeria is not working.” But the opposition, whether the much talked-of ‘third force’ backed by Obasanjo and other retired generals, or the PDP, appear to have left it too late to derail the Buhari bandwagon: “From where I’m sitting, the ‘third force’ does not have a chance to upturn Buhari, as it is a good idea that started too late,” says Nwanze. Says Nwanze: “The APC was locked and loaded two full years before the 2015 general elections, while the ‘third force’, with less than a year to the 2019 general elections, does not even know what party it will work with. The PDP, on the other hand, has a small window, if it can get over its own internal issues. However, that window is closing, and fast.” Eromo Egbejule in Lagos and Patrick Smith

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP

GENERATION NEXT

Ready for the party games Several prominent northerners are throwing their hats in the ring to be the PDP flag bearer

or the next few months, one issue will consume governors, senators, members of the house and grassroots activists in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP): choosing a flag bearer for the 2019 elections. In principle, delegates will vote for the candidate of their choice at a grand conference monitored by the Independent National Electoral Commission. In practice, barons such as governors Nyesom Wike of Rivers State and Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State will have an outsize influence on who emerges as the presidential candidate. Wike’s access to resources – his state controls a budget of more than $2bn per year – and his forceful personality give him immense power in the party. He cannot be the presidential candidate because the party wants to run a candidate from the north against President Muhammadu Buhari. BIG FISH AND SMALL

The favourite is former vice-president Atiku Abubakar, 71, who hails from Adamawa in the north-east. A serial political defector, having left the PDP a decade ago to join the Action Congress of Nigeria and then the All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku is now back in the PDP at the party’s lowest ebb for two decades. A former director of customs, Atiku co-founded Intels, an oil and gas servicing company that

made his fortune. Should he win the nomination, his colleagues will expect him to put a substantial cut of that cash pile into the campaign. Within the PDP, Atiku’s most serious rival is Sule Lamido, a former foreign minister and governor of Jigawa State. Lamido has stayed in the party since its formationbuthelackssomeoftherazzmatazz that plays so well in Nigerian elections.Lamidoisalsoclosetoformer president Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped the PDP by publicly calling for Buhari not to run for another term. More popular with the younger generation, Ibrahim Dankwambo, the governor of Gombe State, has won endorsements from across the country. However, he does not have the national profile of Atiku or Lamido. The last big name in the nomination race is the party’s former chairman Ahmed Makarfi. He too lacks the national visibility of the others, although he emerged victorious after a bitter fight within the party last year. Three of the strongest contenders – former Kano governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, Sokoto governor Aminu Tambuwal and Senate president Bukola Saraki – are not in the party currently, despite an enthusiastic wooing campaign by Wike. Of the three, Kwankwaso looks the most likely to leave his perch in the APC to try his chances in the PDP. P.S. THE AFRICA REPORT

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2 & 3 JULY 2018,

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SAVE THE DATE Information and registration women@theafricaceoforum.com # AC F W I B Seats are limited.

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Ruto is building his support base around the country with the next presidential election in his sights

KENYA

Ruto’s path to 2022 Kenyatta’s deputy has topped a poll on who will be the next president. But within his party there are signs his succession pact may be challenged

henPresidentUhuruKenyatta and his erstwhile opponent Raila Odinga walked down the stairs of Harambee House and shook hands in early March, there was a tectonic shift in Kenya’s political scene. The two had been engaged in a gruelling duel of two back-to-back elections, just five years after another whose wounds were yet to heal. But the most significant thing about their handshake was who was missing from the scene: Kenyatta’s ally and deputy president, William Ruto. Ruto’s journey to the second most powerful office in the land has been nothing but spectacular (see timeline), and the next five years will determine whether he gets to succeed Kenyatta. Although the two have a pact for this to occur, there were already undertones before last year’s elections that Kenyatta’s side would renege on the deal. Because of this and his position in his own backyard, Ruto appears

to be permanently in election mode. Kenyatta’s words during the handshake with Odinga – “Our future cannot be dictated by the forthcoming election” – sounded more directed to his partner than to the man standing beside him. The constitution bars Kenyatta from firing Ruto, and the process of impeaching him would lead to open political war. THE KIKUYU VOTE

For a man who joined politics less than threedecadesago,Rutoisnowthemanto beat. Just three weeks after the Kenyatta/ Odinga truce, a survey by the firm IPSOS indicated that 30% of people believe Ruto will be Kenya’s next president. Ruto came out on top in the poll, followed by his rivals: Odinga, Baringo senator Gideon Moi and Mombasa governor Hassan Ali Joho. It might have been the timing of the poll, but Odinga’s approval ratings were the lowest they had been in a long time. Odinga ranked highest on the question

of who respondents thought would never be president, at 42%. There are two significant challenges Ruto still has to overcome. The first is internal politics, both in his backyard and within the ruling Jubilee Party. While the official party line is that no one will tear up the 2013 promise to allow Ruto to run in 2022, several politicians from Kenyatta’s side have publicly said their support will not be ‘automatic.’ Ruto’s main fear is that after Kenyatta’s exit, Kenyatta’s Kikuyu support base will take a similar stand. The Kikuyu vote is historically insular, choosing to divide its choices among rivals from the region instead of voting for someone from outside the area. The counter to this is that Ruto is seen as the reason for continuing peace in the Rift Valley, a perennial problem since independence in the 1960s. The other hurdle is the rivals in his backyard, led by Baringo senator and son of Kenya’s second president, Gideon Moi. That Moi ranked second after Ruto in the IPSOS poll is telling of his growing stature in the anti-Ruto camp. For conservatives in Kenya’s elite power circles, Moi could be a safer pair of hands than the deputy president. Moi also has immense personal and family wealth, as well as powerful connections built by his father. One of the most revealing scenes in the lead-up to last year’s election was THE AFRICA REPORT

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AG IM

GE E R G V IA

The zigzag course of Ruto’s ambition

Two days after the Kenyatta-Odinga handshake, Ruto began a spirited campaign to win over the oppositioncontrolled coastal regions. He received public declarations of support from several politicians, and at least one promise of a cessation of fire. The choice of the coast was revealing of

BUILDING BRIDGES

governors. Governors are limited to two terms, and in the August 2017 elections, 33 of them, all men of means, were reNorth Eastern Eastern elected. At least two have publicly declared their interest in the presidency – both Mombasa governor Hassan Ali Joho and Machakos governor Rift Western Valley Alfred Mutua ranked higher than all of Odinga’s current coalition Rift Valley partners in the IPSOS poll. A likely referendum between now and 2022 could be a stumbling block for Ruto. In one draft bill being assessed by parliament, Nairobi a politician from Ruto’s backyard Nyanza Central Coast wants to restore the parliamentary 100 km system. Some pundits think it is a ploy to keep Kenyatta relevant after 2022 as Jubilee Party leader and therefore, Ruto’s wider plan to build bridges. Stories a potential prime minister. Others see of his meetings with central and western it is a way of making space for Odinga as well as the outgoing governors, who Kenya leaders emerge almost every week on days he is not touring those regions could be placated with cabinet posts. to launch development projects. Such a change would require a national referendum that could also work as a There are two big possibilities in Ruto’s litmus test for 2022. game plan, one that involves Odinga and one that does not. A decade ago, the two Ruto has proven himself a wily, of them were on the same side of what risk-taking politician but one who still turned out to be a destructive election. is cautious. A good example is when, in 2010, he took on the entire government WhenOdingawassworninon30January by leading a spirited campaign against in his own version of an inauguration afthe new constitution. Although he failed, ter last year’s contested election, pockets of his support base openly told him to he came out of it with a solid support base as well as strong support from the mend fences with Ruto. An endorsement from Odinga would undoubtedly boost church for his conservative stance on moral issues. It epitomises what Ruto Ruto’s standing, but it could also harm his reputation as a self-made politician. His himself calls ‘kujipanga’ (to strategise could-be kingmaker is more experienced and organise oneself ). In 2018, he is staring at a chess board that could either and connected, and even after losing five win him the most powerful office in the elections still seems in it for the 2022 race. land or ultimately destroy his career. Another group that will shape Ruto’s Morris Kiruga in Nairobi potential 2022 run is outgoing county

William Ruto’s Rift stronghold

the overtures made by both Kenyatta and his mother to the Mois to support Kenyatta’s reelection. In the Ruto camp, those overtures were seen as betrayal and a revelation that his partnership with Kenyatta might not be so strong. For a man who has repeatedly called himself ‘the son of a peasant’, Ruto is now a man of means too, but the fears that older networks might be his undoing are not unfounded. Among his closest allies are national assembly majority leader Aden Duale, Senate majority leader Kipchumba Murkomen and senator Kithure Kindiki. The external hurdles are a result of Kenya’s fragmented politics. Even if Ruto is leading the succession race today, he cannot win alone. A Jubilee ticket would be ideal, but that could force him to choose a Kikuyu running mate. That would likely alienate other potential partners and even strengthen an opposition to his course. In the Kenyatta-Ruto partnership, the latter only controls a part of the west, with the opposition coalition controlling most of the Nyanza and Western regions. Kenyatta only has a hold on the centre, with the rest divided among the opposition. For Ruto, this fragmentation is as much opportunity as it is an uphill task.

1966

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Born in December 1966, William Ruto entered politics in 1992. He was a loyal Kenya African National Union (KANU) man for the next decade before switching sides to Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

He first declared his presidential ambition in January 2006, then losing out to Odinga for the party nomination. After the 2007 elections, Ruto became agriculture minister before being reassigned to higher education and, in 2011, being sacked. •

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2013

By the time he partnered with Kenyatta, the two had more than their KANU history in common. They were also accused of crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC); charges which brought them together and propelled them to the presidency in 2013. The ICC abandoned Ruto’s prosecution in 2016 because of what the presiding judge said was “troubling incidence of witness interference and intolerable political meddling”.

After aid: the taxman cometh

hat – you may ask – is Kweku Anansi, that noted West African trickster, doing in a queue outside of the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) on a sweltering Friday morning in Accra? As an itinerant chronicler, Anansi gets drawn to public spectacles in search of inspiration. In these straitened times across Africa, the taxman has become a vital friend to the power politician. And so it was impossible to pass up the chance of seeing vice-president Mahamudu Bawumia and finance minister Ken Ofori-Atta lining up to submit their tax returns. These two guardians of the national economy strode purposefully into the GRA headquarters along with the rest of us loyal citizens – tricksters, tro tro drivers, akpeteshie distillers, kelewele fryers, calabash carvers, teachers, tech innovators, NASA scientists and world-class investment bankers. Clutching their returns, Bawumia and Ofori-Atta did their civic duty. Bawumia even found time for an encomium to President Nana Akufo-Addo’s ‘Beyond Aid’ policy, which has become a government mantra. Tax and aid are umbilically joined. You can’t extol the virtues of national economic independence and shuffle off the hectoring vendors of foreign aid without paying a price. Collecting taxes efficiently is just the start. Bawumia and Ofori-Atta are setting their sights on the rapid conversion of the informal sector – the off-grid workers, companies, traders and producers that make up the bulk of Ghana’s economy – into a modern formalised entity. Suddenly, state revenue will skyrocket, they enthuse, and economic data will be reliable and of practical use for policy and planning. On 1 April, the GRA launched its system of tax identification numbers. Without this number, citizens will be unable to open a bank account, apply for a passport, register land or obtain a driver’s licence. Given that about 1.5 million, out of an estimated eight million, currently pay tax, the GRA is expecting a brisk trade in the months ahead. Treasury officials hope it works after last year’s tax receipts came in way below budget. The government collected 27.4bn

($6.2bn) in the first 11 months of 2017, or about 13.4% of gross domestic product. That’s almost 6% lower than the regional average, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. There is no question, foreign aid is under fire. And now all sides in the argument are breathing a sigh of relief. Some conservative politicians in the West are plainer still: turn off the taps, charity begins at home. In many ways, it sums up the West’s bad marriage with Africa. After years of bickering over household expenses, the couple is finally negotiating a divorce. That remarkable 2017 video of Bawumia and Akufo-Addo explaining the problem with foreign aid in front of a Ofori-Atta aim slightly baffled-looking President to convert Emmanuel Macron of France went the informal viral. In it, Akufo-Addo focused on political and moral issues. “France sector rapidly will do whatever it needs to do into a modern for its own sake, and when those coincide with ours, ‘tant mieux’ formalised as the French people say. But our entity. main responsibility as leaders, as Suddenly citizens, is what we need to do to grow our own countries.” state Although the national econrevenue will omy’s projected growth rate of 8.5% is one of the world’s fastest skyrocket, this year, many rail against the they enthuse continued social inequities and may see higher taxes as another burden on the poor. Beyond that, there are equally tough questions about how to tax the big companies the government wants to invest – Anglogold Ashanti just secured a hefty tax concession to restart operations at Obuasi. It is unclear how the government intends to tackle the profit-shifting and trade mispricing identified in African Union reports. Ghana had been losing $2.5bn a year in such illicit financial flows for a decade, according to economists at a ‘Beyond Aid’ conference organised by the African Center for Economic Transformation and the International Monetary Fund in April. Tracking down those flows and their beneficiaries will prove much harder than getting taxi drivers to register at the GRA.

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ADVERTORIAL

Côte d’Ivoire

Tackling youth and climate challenges

pparently, two subjects at odds. Wrong, both are related to the future of Africa, both are priorities, both if one does not care will produce collateral damages, perhaps beyond repair

An idle youth, untrained, unemployed, not only jeopardize economic development, but can easily become a source of risks and troubles, be a cause of illegal immigration and terrorism... As for climate changes, more and more visible, throughout deforestation, declining rainfall, sea level rise, natural disasters, they lead to extreme poverty. I Côte d’Ivoire - May 2018

COTE D’IVOIRE Tackling youth and climate challenges

Youth and Education

I © NABIL ZORKOT/JA

n an aging European world, young represent in Africa an extraordinary potential. Today, over 60% of the African population is under 25 years, a number which is expected to increase by 2050.

The future must be built with them. But they must be offered real prospects for their education, and jobs that need to be profitable, productive. In his opening speech at the AfricanUnion/EuropeanUnion Summit, in November 29th 2017, in Abidjan, President Alassane Ouattara stressed the importance to have strong generalcommitments on education, adding that the challenges were great, as therewasarealgap between the hopes the country puts in his youth and the opportunities available. Indeed, he said, the access to the educational system is difficult, the capacity is insufficient and the quality of education must be improved. This is true for the access to primary school (in 2015, the enrollment rate in primary school was 63%), to college and high school. The technical and vocational education must be valued, as only less than 10% of the workforce is oriented there. Courageous, ambitious reforms, accompanied by significant investments in the educational system are already underway in the country. Those reforms must favor new information technologies to be II Côte d’Ivoire - May 2018

able to get straight ahead in the new economic world. Many initiatives taken by young people in this area are real accelerators of autonomy. According to the Ministry of N.I.C.T. the country has over 8 million internet subscribers and nearly 25 million subscribers to mobile telephony. Côte d’Ivoire wants to be the new technology center in the region.

KEY FIGURES • September 22, 2015, President Alassane Ouattara makes school attendance compulsory for children aged 6 to 16 years. More than 5 million children are concerned. • 2015, 93, 6% is school enrollment rate of 6 to 16 years. In 2007 it was less than 75%. • Since 2012, more than 700 billion CFA francs, devoted to education (modernization and construction of schools, recruitment and training of teachers). • Since 2011, more than 15,000 teachers and professors have been recruited; more than 30,000 classrooms have been renovated; nearly 300 schools have been built.

ADVERTORIAL

EQUAL OPPORTUNITIES

• To ensure access to shelter and basic education for every child, Dominique Ouattara created in 1988 «Children of Africa». The foundation celebrates its 20th anniversary in 2018.

• Children remain at the heart of the priorities of the First Lady, personally involved, on national and international level, against child abuse and exploitation in the work world.

gurated the hospital «mother-child Dominique Ouattara» in Bingerville (commune of Abidjan), a unique hospital with surgical unit: 49 000 m2, 16 300 m 2 built area, 130 beds capacity and latest generation equipment.

Climate and environment I n the long-term, global warming will be a real disaster for men and women who have always lived from agriculture and fishing.

Côte d’Ivoire tackles climate challenges and economic development as production and environment remain a difficult balance, where vigilance is required. The Government takes into account the need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas by 28% by 2030. This percentage may reach 36% in case of external financial support. Efforts to reduce deforestation by strengthening forest governance request legal framework and effective law enforcement. It is essential.

AT A GLANCE Temperature Expected to increase by 2060

▲ 0.96-2.26° C

Rainfall

Expected to decrease under ▼ mid and late 21st century the highest emission scenario (A2)

Extreme

c̋ old� days and nights are expected ▼ by mid century to decrease w ̋ arm� days and nights are expected to increase

▲ by mid century III Côte d’Ivoire - May 2018

• On March 16th 2018, President Ouattara inau-

COTE D’IVOIRE Tackling youth and climate challenges

In 1900, the forests covered 16 million hectares. Today, Côte d’Ivoire is left with less than 3.5 million. And, regression, according to official data, has supported continuous loss.

ADVERTORIAL

PRIORITY ENVIRONMENT ACTION: STRENGTHEN GOVERNANCE

The Ivorian government since 2011 has adhered to Reduction International Mechanisms emissions greenhouse gas from Deforestation and Degradation of Forests.

• Identify policy priorities for addressing land and tree tenure

March 21 was set, «Forests International Day» (resolution of the United Nations General Assembly (UN) and the government works to more conservation and encourages the development of forest plantation.

• Explore climate finance and REDD+ opportunities

• Strengthen forest protection

• Strengthen law enforcement and legal frameworks

Agriculture

With its 550 km, Côte d’Ivoire is after Nigeria, the West African country with the longest coast. The area is characterized by biodiversity. Lately, the effect of global climate change exacerbated the effect of human pressure on the natural capital. In particular, coastal erosion caused by steadily rising sea level,

• Identify other cocoa market inefficiencies

has become a threat for existing infrastructure and economic activities. The National Development Plan 2012-2015 already put emphasis on better coastal management. Côte d’Ivoire is confronting a triple challenge of increasing productivity, reducing pressure on forests and ecosystem and increasing resilience to climate change.

THE SAME CAUSES PRODUCING THE SAME EFFECTS • Agriculture contributes 20% of GDP and employs about half of the population. The emphasis is on cash crops that have been one of the engines of the country’s economic development. Agricultural crops for export account for 40% of production. • In Côte d’Ivoire, rain fed agriculture, without any irrigation, makes up 90% of production. • From 2015 onwards, rainfall deficiency led to a decline in cotton and cashew nut production, and there is now concern for that of cocoa, of which the country is the world’s leading producer with 35% of market share. • Fishing is still carried out at an artisanal level, despite significant tuna production (Africa’s leading producer). • Coffee: Côte d’Ivoire is aiming for a production level of 200,000 tons and a roasting rate of about 50% by 2020, while the current national production stands at 106,000 tons. IV Côte d’Ivoire - May 2018

DIFCOM - PHOTOS : © UNLESS MENTIONED.

The National Agricultural Investment Plan has been allocated a budget of 4 billion for improvement of agricultural and development sectors. But the program could be compromised by the impacts of climate change (reduced rainfall and soil degradation).

Côte d’Ivoire President Ouattara (R) and Prime Minister Coulibaly (L)

The

glitz

THIERRY GOUEGNON/REUTERS

and the

grime The rarefied air of certain circles in Abidjan could have you convinced that another Ivorian miracle is under way. But you do not have to stray far to see that crime, poverty and a lack of infrastructure are holding back the transformation of growth into direct improvements in people’s livelihoods By Bram Posthumus in Abidjan

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ôte d’Ivoire was in the continental spotlight as President Alassane Ouattara opened the sixth Africa CEO Forum, held on 26-27 March at the Sofitel Hotel Ivoire. He explained: “Now more than ever, Africa is determined to take its destiny in its own hands and has the solid resolve to be the principal actor in its own development.” He called on governments to diversify their countries’ economies, invest in infrastructure, get serious about regional integration and the education of young people,

JACQUES TORREGANO FOR JA

44 COUNTRY FOCUS | CÔTE D’IVOIRE

BETTER FOR BUSINESS

On many development indicators, the country has a lot of room for improvement. World Bank figures put the primary school completion rate at 63% in 2015. At the same time, 27.9% of the population lived on less than $1.9 per day. Ouattara’s administration has been working hard to improve the country’s business climate and this has paid dividends: Côte d’Ivoire ranks 139 out of 190 countries in the latest World Bank Doing Business report, up from 167 out of 183 in 2012. But improvements can still be made, said Sérgio

Above: Government incentives have encouraged investment in cocoa processing, such as at this Choco Ivoire plant in San-Pédro Right: After army mutinies in 2017, violence again broke out between rival factions in the military in January 2018

leader of the Syndicat National Agricole Pimenta, vice-president for Africa and pour le Progrès union asked: “Every the Middle East at the International farmer works to fulfil the needs of his Finance Corporation. He was speaking at the presentation of a new report on family. How can you prevent a farmer investment opportunities and referred from looking out for the best return on specifically to the “simplification of investment?” This rhetorical question administrative procedures”, an alluhints at the possibility of selling Ivorian cocoa in neighbouring Ghana, where sion to the country’s French-inherited it fetches 900 CFA francs ($1.69) per labyrinthine bureaucracy. kilogram, 200 CFA francs more than at The macroeconomy is performing home. The Ivorian government, which well. A paper from the economy and reduced the cocoa price in response finance ministry is upbeat: economic to the crisis, forbids the smuggling of growth for 2018 is predicted at 8.3% Ivorian beans to neighbouring countries. due to continued improvements in Cocoa farmers, once the pillars of the commercial agriculture – producing ruling party in the time of the uncontestcocoa, coffee, fruit and livestock – and strong growth figures for construction, ed rule of the Parti Démocratique de Côte energy and services. On the surface, this Côte d’Ivoire Foreign looks like a boom, the second one in the Direct Investment Inﬂows ($m) country’s history, after the cocoa-fuelled 481 economic miracle of the 1960s and 446.1 438.8 1970s. Commercial agriculture remains the bedrock of the Ivorian economy but caution is in order: realities on the 283 338.9 330.3 ground are less pleasant than those 318.9 234.7 government figures suggest. In 2016/2017, world cocoa prices 212.6 plunged by 35%, dropping to $1,900/ tn by the end of 2017. The Londonbased Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that price trend will continue. In January 2018, Moussa Koné, the 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SOURCE: UNCTAD

especially girls. These are all familiar themes on the African conference circuit, and the proof of Ouattara’s leadership is whether he actually follows through at home. As Ouattara comes to the end of his second term and is due to hand over to a successor in 2020, citizens are debating his legacy. With the end of the country’s civil war, the African Development Bank returned to its Abidjan headquarters and the economy received $481m in foreign direct investment in 2016, up from an average of $353m in 2005-2007 according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The economy has been growing rapidly for the past several years, but mutinies last year and a spate of angry protests this year (see page 47) show that the country has a long way to go to fight poverty, reduce corruption and respond to the needs of the population.

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cocoa exports, which appears to be contrary to stated government policy. Bolloré and others are making bets on Côte d’Ivoire’s consumers. Since 2015, the American fast-food giant Burger King has been opening a string of restaurants. Currently, there are seven: at the airport, major shopping centres and in the business district known as Le Plateau. Bolloré runs the supply chain from Europe to the purpose-built cold storage facilities.

STR/AFP

IVORIAN SUCCESSES

d’Ivoire (PDCI) and Félix HouphouëtBoigny – himself a farmer – have lost a lot of their clout in the intervening years. But the troubles on the ground are not going unnoticed at the highest level: Ouattara and his Ghanaian counterpart, Nana Akufo-Addo, delivered a joint declaration in March, in which they pledged to work towards price improvements, harmonising marketing policies and to agreeing cocoa prices “in a concomitant manner”, which could put an end to Ivorian smuggling dreams. They also invited the private sector to invest massively in the sector, and especially in processing: both countries want to minimise the export

Cocoa beans production (million tonnes) Global

SOURCE: ICCO, AUGUST 2017

4.251

Côte d’Ivoire

4.700

3.981

1.796

2014/2015

2.010

1.581

2015/2016

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of raw materials in order to add value and to create employment at home. Côte d’Ivoire is making more progress than Ghana on the processing front due to a series of incentives that encouraged more investment in grinding capacity. Diversifying the economy away from commodities is a recurring theme for many African governments, and tourism is one of those areas where private investment can pay off handsomely. Tourism minister Siandou Fofana says that the sector’s contribution to Côte d’Ivoire’s gross domestic product today stands at just over 5.5% – almost three times what it was in the wake of the post-electoral crisis of 2010-2011. The March 2016 shootings at Grand-Bassam, the first and so far only recent terrorist attack in the country, has failed to put the brakes on tourism’s growth. Logistics is another sector the government says it is upbeat about. There are few countries on the continent where the French multinational Bolloré – which has 24,000 employees in 46 African countries – has a freer hand than in Côte d’Ivoire. In late 2017, Bolloré started work on the rehabilitation of the 1,200km Abidjan-Ouagadougou railway. In February 2018, the firm opened new facilities at the port of Abidjan for bulk

The rise of the service economy is intimately connected with urbanisation, with economic capital Abidjan as the main draw. Voodoo Communications, the homegrown Abidjan advertising agency created in 1999, is still led by its founder, Fabrice Sawegnon. Voodoo’s annual turnover is in the order of $12m, and it has branched out into event organisation and media activity. The company has created eye-catching ads for Orange, Castel and Air Côte d’Ivoire, as well as managing President Ouattara’s successful re-election campaign. Snedai, the e-visa service that businessman Adama Bictogo set up in 2007, has now grown into a group active in lagoon transport, construction and energy. It employs 1,000 people and has an annual turnover of $73.9m. These are just two examples of businesses that have come into their own in an environment where you must be fast, innovative and savvy in order to succeed. It does no harm, either, to be close to the presidential family. Earlier in March, the Sofitel Hotel Ivoire hosted another gathering of the great and the good in what has become a barometer of who is up, who is down, who is in and who is out: the annual Children of Africa gala dinner, the brainchild of first lady Dominique Ouattara. Prime minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly was there, as was vice-president Daniel Kablan Duncan. Guillaume Soro was in attendance, which was interesting, given the hard time Ouattara’s party had been giving him about his ambitions, as was Henriette Konan Bédié, the wife of the President’s ally and PDCI leader Henri Konan Bédié. Bédié’s party and Ouattara’s are now in an alliance, but manoeuvrings related to the upcoming presidential elections could lead to a parting of ways. French businesses were well represented at the gala by Vincent Bolloré

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and Martin and Olivier Bouygues. Artists and celebrities put the finest gloss on the event, among them French actress Isabelle Adjani, Senegal’s Youssou N’Dour, Mali’s Salif Keita, Toumani and Sidiki Diabaté, Côte d’Ivoire’s Aïcha Koné, Meiway and Magic System and the renowned Nigerien couturier Alphadi, who has a store in Le Plateau. In stark contrast are stories such as this one from a shop owner in Angré, a northern suburb of Abidjan: “There are parts of Abobo where people don’t leave their homes at night. These young guys come out with machetes and terrorise

the area.” The young guys in question are ‘microbes’, adolescents and other young people in violent street gangs. “They have no reason to be there, they just rob people,” he said, before explaining that this was the reason he preferred his shop to be outside his own neighbourhood. Some politicians want Côte d’Ivoire’s grime rather than its glitz to be at the centre of political debates. Mamadou Koulibaly was the speaker of Côte d’Ivoire’s parliament throughout much of the reign of former president Laurent Gbagbo. He plans to stand in 2020 as presidential candidate for Liberté et

Edith Brou

Founder, Africa Contents Group (africacg.com), which works in digital marketing, media production and owns the website buzzyafrica.com

Mobilising people is what I do TAR: How did you get your start? EDITH BROU: From a very early age, I was fascinated by computers and computer games. And when the internet arrived in the early 2000s, it was like catching a virus. Then, in 2009, I started blogging and through the web I got into contact with others who had the same fascination with this technology. We held many discussions about what it could mean for Africa. Virtually everyone in that group has continued working in information technology. On 11 February 2011, my friend Amie Kouamé and I launched ayanawebzine.com. What interested me was to have an entirely female editorial board for a digital publication because that is the future. An online magazine for women – there was nothing like

this in all of West Africa. But the launch was in the midst of the post-electoral crisis […]. The crisis motivated me even more to build something good in my country, address the youth and be completely independent, especially from politics. What are the challenges? It’s important that young people get the idea that you can prosper outside politics, build an enterprise, contribute to your community and make your own money. But for that to happen you need an attractive environment with fiscal incentives, access to finance. Pointing out problems and mobilising people, mobilising public opinion to come up with solutions – that’s what I do. There’s a school that needs repair – who can do this? There’s this

young man with an idea – who can help with the money side? What changes are young people bringing? Young people use their phones to access the internet and form their own opinions. They are critical, they analyse, they make fun of politicians and often in a very creative way. In fact, you can say that these days no one can take them for a ride. What is next? My next project is a series of portraits of digital agents: 50visagesivoiretech.ci. The idea is to create a list of people who are working in tech in Africa. It’s a project very dear to my heart. I want to show an Africa that’s on the move, is connected, creates businesses and gets things done. Interview by B.P. in Abidjan

Démocratie pour la République, a relatively small left-of-centre party that challenges the government’s free-market policies. “The fight against poverty does not means eradicating the visible signs of it and replacing it with beautiful flyovers and lovely homes,” he argued in a video he released on 23 March, the day before he declared his candidacy. “That’s how you get the ‘microbes’, through a lack of dignity, frustration and violence.” THE SPHINX AND THE SOLDIER

Abobo is a disadvantaged area of Abidjan – no Burger Kings there. Other parts of the country fare little better. In the north, millions eke out a meagre livelihood on the land. Abidjan is very, very far away from these places, which, ironically perhaps, have also been home to a reliably pro-Ouattara electorate. Given that for them the benefits from Côte d’Ivoire’s second economic miracle have not materialised, the government may be in for a rude awakening at the next elections. Key to all the political equations are the moves taken by two giants of the political stage: one young, one old. Henri Konan Bedié has kept his reputation as a sphinx, revealing nothing about his intentions in the upcoming 2020 elections. He has made splashes in the press, appearing to court one or another pretender to the throne, whilst never giving up his own ambitions. But he matters greatly in the political calculus. The heir of the historic PDCI party, which ruled at independence, he brings with him a good third of the votes in the country. A meeting held between President Ouattara and Bedié on 10 April was expected to announce a formal electoral pact and the creation of a joint party. But while the intention was indeed announced, it remained light on detail. And rumours swirl of a 2014 electoral pact signed before Ouattara won his second term that would give the throne to the PDCI. The other giant of the political stage, Guillaume Soro, was a former youth leader turned militia leader who helped propel Ouattara to power. Having been prime minister, he is now president of the National Assembly. With a firm hand on the militias still active in the north of the country, he will want to make his presence felt ahead of the 2020 poll. Expect the next 18 months to be a bumpy ride. THE AFRICA REPORT

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An ndré Silver Konan Journaliist, Côte d’Ivoire

Simple remedies for our problems

hotos of recent protests are circulating on social media. One of them, which went viral, suggests a complete flouting of state authority: it shows a gendarme’s cap, shed as he fled mob violence in M’Bahiakro on 6 March. Two days earlier, a young girl was killed in this town not far from Bouaké in central Côte d’Ivoire. It was a ritual crime commissioned by the victim’s father, and it led to a violent confrontation between protesters and the authorities. In the past three years, several towns have been destabilised by shows of public anger in areas that support President Alassane Ouattara’s Rassemblement des Républicains, but also in Bloléquin in the west, Korhogo in the north and Soubré in the south-east. The causes of the protests have often been different – the cost of electricity in Bouaké, a fire at a market in Soubré – but each time the protesters have attacked the symbols of the state. Protesters and rioters targeted government buildings, which they see as representing corruption, impunity and injustice. That dissatisfaction runs deep. President Ouattara has also admitted it, saying: “Those antisocial acts of the past few months are a message to us all. They are contrary to the ideals of the society that we want to build.” But don’t misread the situation. Anger takes root amidst poverty and inequality. In a recent report, the World Bank recognised that “since the end of the crisis in 2012, the performance of the Ivorian economy has been remarkable, with a per capita growth rate exceeding 5% per year.” But it also said that “despite this upturn, per capita income is today below levels in the early 1980s.” According to the international financial institution: “An examination of the economic growth factors […] shows that […] the employment rate did indeed increase significantly (even faster than the population growth rate), but incomes did not follow the same positive trend.” In simple terms, working THE AFRICA REPORT

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more does not mean making more money. That is a state of affairs that creates frustrations, the kind that can explode with the slightest spark. The Ivorian government is at a crossroads. In 2010, Ouattara campaigned on a platform of improving the population’s living conditions. His ‘Horizon 2020’ programme for Côte d’Ivoire’s development created enormous expectations. Those expectations were obviously too great, and it is out of big hopes that huge disappointments are born. With two years until Ouattara’s second term ends, macroeconomic progress is not addressing the microeconomic fears of the average Ivorian. To put a stop to the cycle of violent protests, the government is trying to apply the World Bank’s recommendations on “technology transfers”. But those do not address the real problems, the grievances that are causing angry people to march out into the streets. The Bretton Woods institutions insist that one of the best ways to share out the fruits of growth more fairly is to bring state services closer to the citizens. That seems fair in theory. But in practice, this policy will be inadequate as long as the government does not have a transparent mechanism to stop, for example, medicines that are supposed to be free at rural health centres being sold to people instead. The government needs to understand that it is not enough to give the country institutions that fight against corruption. It is more important to punish the bad managers of public projects, whether they be directors, ministers or the bosses of big companies, to stop the enrichment of a narrow elite to the detriment of the average citizen. If that happens, the country would take a giant step towards addressing problems linked to inequality. Why look for complicated solutions to popular frustrations when there are simple remedies?

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Hervé Boyer Chief executive, Stanbic Bank Cote d’Ivoire

South Africa’s Standard Bank launched operations in Côte d’Ivoire last year and is planning on using the country as its Francophone West African base

tandard Bank – South Africa’s and Africa’s largest bank – has been slowly moving towards Francophone Africa. Operating under the Stanbic brand and throwing a big party at the Hotel Ivoire in Abidjan on 9 April, the bank will now be lending to blue-chip customers in Côte d’Ivoire – and ultimately hopes to expand into the Frenchspeaking sub-region. TAR: What was the attraction of going into Francophone Africa? HERVÉ BOYER: The Standard Bank Group was not at all implicated in Francophone countries until recently. It opened its representative office on 26 December 2013 here in Côte d’Ivoire, and it did so because it was missing an important part of the puzzle. We touched Anglophone and Lusophone countries, but not Francophone. How could we say that we are the leading bank in Africa when there is a whole chunk that we don’t reach? Were you pulled by your clients? Yes. We do follow our clients. But beyond that, when you look at the map, there was a significant hole. We liked what we saw, so we

STANBIC BANK CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Francophone Africa is an important part of the puzzle decided to transform this representative office into a subsidiary of the group. That permit was granted in July 2016, with a year given to start operations, which we respected, launching in July 2017. Why was Côte d’Ivoire your first Francophone stop? We had to start somewhere, and Côte d’Ivoire is 40% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Francophone West Africa’s economic zone. We hope to modify our licence to reach all eight membersoftheUnionEconomique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA), which is possible due to the harmonised business laws the bloc has created. The advantages of being in the bloc are the stable inflation rates of 1-2%, relatively

“I can see a future where the rest of Africa represents at least half of our turnover” lowinterestrates,economiesbased on the euro, growth of 7% – we have all the ingredients for success. What kind of clients are you looking for? The current clients of the bank, which are large multinationals for now, are our primary clients. So we have a corporate and investment banking focus, which will develop over the next few years. For now, we don’t bank small and medium-sized companies, and we don’t bank individuals.

We are active in many domains: agriculture, energy, oil. And we will be looking to get involved in infrastructure, especially because we have a significant partner, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), [which owns 20% of Standard Bank]. What we like about Côte d’Ivoire is that it is a very diversified economy, unlike say Nigeria, where everything revolves around oil. It allows us to reach every sector and guarantee a certain level of growth. Standard Bank has recentred its operations on Africa. Is this expansion in Francophone Africa a natural extension of that? After the financial crisis, Standard Bank repositioned itself as the leading bank in Africa […]. Our Africa turnover outside of South Africa is around 30% of our revenue, which used to be 5%. I can see a future where the rest of Africa represents at least half. Do you see improved competitiveness in the West African space, with Nigerian banks starting to look at expansion and Moroccan banks also strong south of the Sahara? We are not fighting for this market at the moment because we already have our client base. So if you are already our client in one of the 19 other countries in which we are present in Africa, we will be able to help you. Interview by Nicholas Norbrook in Abidjan

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OIL AND GAS

Puma Energy fills up on Petroci deal A controversial deal to sell off petrol stations is part of a plan to improve the finances of Côte d’Ivoire’s state-owned oil and gas company

SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF CÔTE D’IVOIRE

JONATHAN GLYNN SMITH

company best known locally for an environmental dumping scandal in 2006 is now the owner of 37 formerly state-owned petrol stations through a deal that involves the nephew of President Alassane Dramane Ouattara. Activists denounced the February 2018 deal because state-owned oil company Petroci sold the petrol stations to Puma Energy Côte d’Ivoire, which is Fuel for criticism: Petroci sold its led by Ouattara’s relative Ahmadou petrol stations in an ad hoc deal Touré and owned by Netherlandsbased Trafigura. Commodities trader worth a possible 20bn CFA francs Trafigura chartered a ship in 2006 that offloaded toxic waste in Abidjan, killing venture called Puma Energy Petroleum more than a dozen and injuring tens Côte d’Ivoire, which is 20% owned by of thousands of people. the Ivorian parastatal. The government has not revealed any details about the The opposition has criticised financing of the Puma Energy deal, Ouattara’s government for its poor hanwhich experts estimate to have a dling of state contracting. Competitive bidding rounds normally help governvalue of about 20bn CFA francs. In ments to get better deals, a similar deal in August but the Puma Energy 2015, Petroci sold off its agreement – like many petroleum logistic base others in Côte d’Ivoire – to the Franco-Belgian was conducted through an company SEA-Invest and Petroci owns a ad-hoc negotiation. created the joint venture fifth of Puma Energy The deal to sell service Petro-SEA-Logistics. Petroleum Côte stations is part of Petroci’s d’Ivoire, the joint WASTEFUL SPENDING restructuring programme. venture created The restructuring plan The government launched as part of the deal those efforts in 2015 after with Puma Energy launched by Petroci boss the company lost 39bn Ibrahima Diaby two years CFA francs ($73.5m), due in part to ago seeks to focus the company on oil and gas exploration and production. the drop in the oil price. President He inherited several problems. In 2013, Ouattara’s government recently former director general and Petroci authorised Petroci to restart stalled president Daniel Gnangni commisnegotiations with the Touré-led Puma Energy Côte d’Ivoire. Petroci’s petrol sioned the analysts at 2AC to audit the stations had an annual turnover of state-owned firm. The study revealed huge debts (estimated at the time at 19bn CFA francs and controlled just 5% of the market at the end of 2017. 15bn CFA francs), vast mismanagement, costly and ill-advised deals – like The market leaders are France’s Total the purchase of Chevron’s network of (35%), Amsterdam-based Vivo Energy (29%) and Oil Libya (13%). petrol stations for 32bn CFA francs in The deal between Petroci and Puma 2008 – and major cost overruns. One Energy includes the creation of a joint example of wasteful spending was the THE AFRICA REPORT

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construction of the oil and gas pipeline linking Abidjan to Yamoussoukro. It was designed to reduce traffic on the highways linking the economic and political capitals, but due to technical problems it was not able to reach its optimal capacity for several years. It also cost 160bn CFA francs rather than the initially predicted 121bn. The government named Diaby as the company’s new director in December 2015 to help turn things around. The industry veteran worked at Petroci from 1984 to 1989 before being named adviser to then oil and energy minister Adama Toungara. The former director of hydrocarbons at the oil and gas ministry also was part of the Ivorian government’s team who unsuccessfully challenged the border with Ghana at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea last year. Diaby’s efforts are paying off. In 2016, the state-owned firm reported a profit of 5bn CFA francs. But his leadership has not been without its problems. In order to streamline Petroci’s operations he sacked some 40 members of staff, including some senior executives, in January 2016. That led to a strike and difficult negotiations about severance packages. Similar strikes about the restructuring plan took place in January and July of last year. Baudelaire Mieu in Abidjan and Honoré Banda

50 COUNTRY FOCUS | CÔTE D’IVOIRE

Taking its cue from South Africa’s PIC, the CNPS has branched out into private-sector investment

the value of its liabilities – has grown each year since 2012. In 2018, its surplus is due to reach 118bn CFA francs. In addition to these investments in the private sector, the pension fund typically spends 30bn CFA francs each year on treasury bills and other government investment vehicles. In 2017, its asset base was 300bn CFA francs. Kouassi has set a goal of raising this to 500bn CFA francs in 2020 and 1trn in 2023. SELF-EMPLOYED WORKERS

In order to get there, the CNPS would like to see another reform that would allow independent and self-employed workers – estimated at nearly eight million Ivorians – to participate in its pensions. Such a move could help the CNPS to go from its current 700,000 participants to nearly 10 million. The government is due to issue a decision FINANCE about the pension regime before the end of this year. Most of the country’s workers work in the informal sector, and the CNPS estimates that some 90% of the country’s workers are not covered Côte d’Ivoire’s main pension fund is diversifying by social security schemes. its investments and looking to take up In the meantime, the CNPS is launching a new real-estate development prostakes in companies active at home and abroad ject. It is financing the construction of 32 five-storey buildings that will house 384 apartments in Angré, an area in Cocody. anylocalprojectbackerslooking Bank. The CNPS bought a stake in Other Ivorian pension funds are folfor finance want to get meetings Ecobank Côte d’Ivoire in September lowing suit. The Fonds de Prévoyance with Charles Kouassi, the direc2017 during the bank’s initial public Militaire (FPM), the pension fund for tor of the Caisse Nationale de Prévoyance offering, and the pension fund now Sociale (CNPS). Over the past few years, has a seat on the bank’s board. soldiers, manages inflows of an estimated 2bn CFA francs per year, making Kouassi has turned the body that managThe CNPS has invested in Seen Hotel Abidjan, which is part owned by the it much smaller than the CNPS. But it es the pensions of workers in the private too is investing in real essector into one of the Ivorian economic firm Teyliom. Meanwhile, capital’s most sought-after investors. tate. It financed the 11.2bn it has also put money into Kouassi has taken inspiration from investment funds run CFA franc construction of by Amethis, Yelen and the Palm Club Hotel in a continental giant, South Africa’s Abidjan in 2013. The FPM Public Investment Corporation (PIC). AfricInvest. The CNPS’s Estimated amount He explains: “In the past, our strategy now wants to build a hoslatest investment was in (in CFA francs) was based on fixed-term deposits. We pital and start a financial the Mövenpick Hotel in of CNPS’s surplus institution that can take decided on a new direction that focuses Abidjan in November in 2018, largely driven on making profits through investments.” 2017. The cost of the condeposits and issue loans. by favourable reforms He knows the CNPS well and is a 30FPM boss Colonel-Major struction of the 160-room launched by the year veteran of the organisation. government in 2012 Konan Kouamé will also hotel is estimated at 38bn CFA francs ($71.6m). be overseeing the develLike the PIC, the CNPS has taken opment and management of four new These ambitious investments would stakes in several companies. Most of not be possible without reforms military hospitals that the government the investments are in the tourism and launched by the government in 2012. plans to build with the help of finance finance sectors. The CNPS invested in worth 41bn CFA francs from the govelectricity and water company Eranove They pushed the retirement age from ernment of India. in June 2017, and it also has shares in the 55 to 60 and raised contribution rates Baudelaire Mieu in Abidjan Ivorian subsidiaries of France’s Société from 8% to 14% of salaries. The CNPS’s Générale and Morocco’s Attijariwafa surplus – the value of its assets minus for Jeune Afrique

The CNPS picks winners

SOURCE: CNPS

118bn

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PEOPLE TO WATCH

Soldiers, stars and stalwarts The most dynamic Francophone West African market is home to hot political divides, a febrile security situation and big money-makers

OLIVIER FOR JA

SIA KAMBOU/AFP

Sékou Touré A general listener

Marie Diongoye Konaté In the land of milk and honey One of Côte d’Ivoire’s top entrepreneurs is preparing to list her company on the regional stock exchange, the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM). In March, Konaté’s agribusiness Protein Kissèe-Là (PKL) announced that it is part of the BRVM’s new Elite programme to help companies with big growth potential to raise funds on the bourse. She launched PKL in 1994 with an initial investment of about $1,000, and the firm is now a market leader in the production of powdered milk and baby food, competing with huge multinationals like Nestlé and Danone. Originally from Mali and trained as an architect, Konaté moved to Côte d’Ivoire in the 1990s.

PHOT

OPQR

/LE PA

RISIE

Ahead of local and senatorial elections planned for this year, the Commission Electorale Indépendante and its boss are again in the spotlight. Bakayoko is an ally of Bédié and insists that he will not step down from his post despite the continued criticism of those allied with Aboudramane Sangaré, a Gbagbo hardliner in the FPI. The government plans to review the management of the electoral process before presidential elections in 2020, but there is growing donor and domestic support for changes to be made sooner. THE AFRICA REPORT

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Pascal Affi N’Guessan On a new path The leader of former president Laurent Gbagbo’s party has launched talks with Henri Konan Bédié’s Parti Démocratique de la Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) about a potential alliance. Both former ruling parties face important divisions: the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) has not been able to reconcile with its Gbagbo-or-no-one bloc and many PDCI members are unhappy about what the party is getting out of its deal for supporting Ouattara.

Henriette Dagri Diabaté Femme forward The new president of Ouattara’s Rassemblement des Républicains (RDR) was contemplating her retirement and a future in philanthropy last year. She took up the post in September 2017 at a congress where rumours swirled that Ouattara would reclaim the party leadership. Instead, 83-year-old Diabaté is leading the party with another female RDR stalwart, education minister Kandia Camara, as secretary general. The biggest challenges are picking a presidential candidate to replace Ouattara in 2020 and managing the RDR’s alliance with the PDCI.

PANAPRESS/MAXPPP

Youssouf Bakayoko Electoral hot seat

Named chief of staff in 2017, discreet General Touré has the delicate task of reforming the military. Many of the country’s senior military officers were loyal to former president Laurent Gbagbo, and Touré only joined Ouattara’s side at the end of the 2010-2011 conflict. With a reputation as a professional who listens to his troops, he has Ouattara’s backing to roll out more rigour in the ranks.

START-UPS

TAR 100

Imagining the future

Slowmotion revolution

Africa has the talent, but the continent’s start-ups are scrabbling for a tiny fraction of the global venture capital pie. Governments and local investors need to step up so that funding can keep pace with the ideas

By Oheneba Ama Nti Osei in Abidjan

eparating fact from hype is hard enough at the best of times, even harder in this ’post-truth’ era. But the winds of disruption blowing from Silicon Valley have not filled all sails equally. For all the talk of incubators (see page 20) and angel investors, Africa remains a very quiet backwater of the global tech scene. But that can change. When investors met at the Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan in

March to discuss how to support the increasing number of start-ups across the continent, one thing became clear: fundraising is on the rise. But looking at the exponential growth of start-up ecosystems, mainly in the tech sector, there is still a long way to go. “Last time I counted there were about 173 innovation hubs across Africa, at least one in every country, so that’s very encouraging. Secondly, the number of start-ups that are being funded

$560m Investment in African start-ups hit $560m in 2017, a 65% increase compared to 2016 SOURCE: PARTECH VENTURES

is growing gradually […] so there is steady growth and the ecosystem is slowing taking shape,” says Mthuli Ncube, who heads the research lab for Quantum Global, a Switzerland-based investment fund and asset manager largely focused on Africa. According to a report by USbased venture capital (VC) firm Partech Ventures, there was a huge jump in start-up investment in Africa in 2017, reaching $560m that year, up from about $366m in 2016. But looking at the high levels of VC investment globally in

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recent years – $155bn was invested worldwide in 2017, according to KPMG – Africa’s share remains microscopic. GRAB THE POTENTIAL

The consultants at McKinsey & Company report that the digital economy in Africa has the potential to contribute $300bn to the continent’s gross domestic product – about 20% – within the next seven years, making the need for investment even more crucial. Wale Ayeni, regional head of the International Financial THE AFRICA REPORT

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Corporation (IFC)’s VC practice focused on Africa, explains: “If you look at the amount of VC coming into Africa, per capita, it is the lowest on any continent, despite the fact that there are going to be 500 million people with smartphones, [and] despite the fact that more smartphones are being shipped intoAfricathanintoEuropetoday.” In the past few years, the majority of start-up funding has been channelled into three countries in Anglophone Africa: Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa. Ameya Upadhyay, a principal at

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Andela coordinator Sayo Alagbe briefs developers in Lagos. The start-up raised $40m in 2017

TOM SAATER/NYT-REDUX-REA

a high-impact social-investment fund at the Omidyar Network, says different market sizes and regulations are the main reasons it is difficult to launch start-ups of size outside those countries. Upadhyay’s fund has invested in Nairobi-based Twiga Foods, one of the five companies (see box) that participated in a startup ‘pitch deck’ presentation at the Africa CEO Forum. The others were Omniup, InTouch, Africa’s Talking and Thrive Agric. Twiga won the Most Promising Company of the Year prize.

54 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

According to technology and entrepreneurship portal Disrupt Africa, South Africa hadthe highest number of start-ups to raise funds in 2017 while Nigeria was the leader in terms of VC funding received, largely due to a $40m fundraising round by Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg-backed tech start-up Andela in October 2017. “Nigeria is probably the only market where you can invest in a company and expect it to scale domestically to give you the returns that justify that 90% [start-up] failure rate,” says Upadhyay, who was previously a consultantatUS-basedinvestment firm Bain Capital. So what might accelerate growth? The continental freetrade agreement signed by 44 African leaders in Kigali in April holds great promise for start-ups

as they build solid regional expansion models. “You will not see a company based in Kenya that does not have a Kenya-TanzaniaUganda roadmap. But it’s harder to achieve than it seems on a PowerPoint presentation,” says Upadhyay. SEEDS AND GROWTH

Boosting local seed funding is also a challenge. Start-ups sometimes struggle to even get the first few thousand dollars to hire an employee, and Upadhyay says that VC funding, which is typically between $50,000 to $300,000, is what is most lacking. Omobola Johnson, a Nigerian technocrat and senior partner at TLcom Capital, has a slightly different view. She says that while it is not enough, there is much

128

Number of funding rounds by 124 African start-ups in 2017, up from 77 rounds in 2016 SOURCE: PARTECH VENTURES

more seed capital available than there is growth capital. She says companies that need between $2m and $5m can spend up to a year globetrotting in search of capital, and that is significant time that is taken away from developing their businesses. “That’s really where the valley of death is,” she says of the stage where promising firms will either collapse or stagnate because they have to keep bootstrapping or running on their profits to keep afloat. “So there are missing pieces in all parts of the ecosystem […] but I think the real challenge that we have in scaling up to get the first billion-dollar company or unicorn, is really around that growth-capital stage. And that’s where many of those good companies can die,” Johnson says.

Five African start-ups going places

InTouch Grouping digital payments

Omniup Free wifi for Moroccans

Africa’s Talking Solutions for developers

Funding: $7m Country: Senegal Founder: Omar Cissé

Funding: $1m Country: Morocco Co-founder: Ali Bensouda

Funding: $8.7m Country: Kenya Co-founder & CEO: Sam Gikandi

Launched in 2014, the Dakar-based fintech start-up InTouch has created a popular one-stop shop for digital payments using an app. Today, more than 3,000 merchants use the platform, and the company has processed more than $450m worth of transactions since launching its first services online in November 2015. The start-up recently raised €7m and plans to raise another €10m by the end of 2018 to help it reach its target of serving 38 African countries in the next three years. In July, French multinational Total partnered with InTouch to support the deployment of the company’s product in eight African countries, including Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Morocco.

Ali Bensouda is on an ambitious mission to connect all Moroccans to free wifi. In 2007, he co-founded Omniup, a start-up that provides users with free internet in public areas in exchange for watching a 10-second video advertisement. Given that more than 90% of Moroccans have limited prepaid phone plans, the demand for free wifi access has propelled business growth. Omniup acquired a patent to broadcast full-screen videos that don’t require downloading an app. In a little over a decade, the company has connected almost 50% of the kingdom’s 14m smartphones and in 2017 generated $1m in turnover. Its high-profile clients include Etisalat, Coca-Cola, Emirates, Unilever and Moroccan railways.

Africa’s Talking is a platform that enables software developers to easily integrate mobile communication and payment solutions into their apps via a cloud-based application programming interface (API). Gikandi says his aim is to simplify the innovation process and make it easy for a software developer anywhere in Africa to build the next Uber or M-Pesa. Africa’s Talking is also nurturing the ecosystem, with an externship programme linking local businesses to software developers. The company now boasts operations in six East African markets plus Nigeria, with ambitious plans to expand across the continent. At its launch in 2010, the platform started out with an initial investment of just $17,000. THE AFRICA REPORT

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According to the IFC’s Ayeni, it is surprising that the onus has been left squarely on foreign capital due to a lack of local funds to invest in tech entrepreneurship. “Africa is the youngest continent and more than 60% of the population is below the age of 24. Who is betting on the local youth?” he asks. He says the IFC wants to help, and in January this year it announced the launch of a €100m ($123m) fund focused on digital technology start-ups in sub-Saharan Africa in partnership with the largest Africa-focused VC fund, US-based Partech Ventures. The fund aims to provide earlystage growth funding, ranging from €500,000 to €5m, to start-ups in various sectors. The dominance of foreign capital on the investment scene in

Africa is set to continue because tech is a young sector there and investments are usually focused on infrastructure. Foreign investors are also not fazed when it comes to risk, according to Johnson: “The truth is that a lot of the money is going to come from outside the continent because they are more used to that VC risk that we’re still trying to get used to in this part of the world.” But she says that as more investments and more successful companies spring up, they will validate the need for more domestic capital. Johnson’s firm recently raised $40m to invest in growth capital for start-ups in Africa in sectors including e-commerce, energy, health and fintech. Foreign investors contributed the bulk of that amount, with the African

Twiga Foods Connecting farm to vendor

ThriveAgric Crowdfunding farmers

Funding: $14m Country: Kenya Co-founder & CEO: Grant Brooke

Funding: $1.1m Country: Nigeria Co-founder & CEO: Uka Eke

Nairobi-based business-to-business start-up Twiga Foods is trying to plug the holes in Kenya’s agriculture supply chain. The mobile-based agri-tech firm founded in 2014 raised $10.3m in a Series A funding round in July 2017 and has secured additional grant funding from USAID and the GSM Association. Twiga’s goal is simple: create an online ordering and payment platform where fresh produce sourced from farmers can be delivered directly to informal vendors, thereby cutting costs and reducing post-harvest losses. Today, the company sells about 400,000 bananas every day. It deals in fruits and vegetables, and is considered the single largest domestic produce company in Kenya.

The idea for the farm crowdfunding platform ThriveAgric was born after Uka Eke spent five years working with smallholder farmers in Nigeria. With a better understanding of the financial and technical challenges they are facing, he decided to build a supply chain for more than 2,000 smallholder farmers in Nigeria that provides their produce to fast-moving consumer good companies and processing firms. That was the launch of ThriveAgric in 2017. Today, the agri-tech start-up funds farmers, provides them with practical advice to increase yields and improve productivity, and connects them to premium markets. ThriveAgric currently supports 4,500 farmers across 12 states in Nigeria.

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Development Bank (AfDB) and Nigerian bank FBNQuest Capital chipping in about a quarter of the total. Ncube, who is a former chief economist at the AfDB, says that the lack of a strong angel investment culture in Africa could also be the missing link between domestic capital and start-up funding. In 2017, he spearheaded the launch of the annual Africa Investment Index, a ranking of all African countries based on short- to medium-term investment attractiveness to provide investors with more information to help them make decisions. FINTECH LEADS THE PACK

Despite the challenges, many venture capitalists see the potential of African start-ups. Several key sectors, including fintech, hold promising futures. Last year, fintech start-ups jointly raised more than $195m and accounted for nearly a third of all African VC investments. The success of mobile-money technology has no doubt contributed to investor confidence. And as more and more unbanked consumers turn to more formal financial services, funding is set to increase. Senegal-based fintech start-up InTouch recently raised €7m and has partnered with French multinational Total to expand its business (see box). The e-commerce and agri-tech sectors have also been high on investors’ lists. In 2017, start-up funding for the latter quadrupled compared to the previous year. Johnson points out that the business-to-business sector is one potential gap often overlooked by investors. There are more than 20m small and medium-sized enterprises in Nigeria alone, and TLcom Capital has chosen to focus its attention on this area. “Understanding the consumer and being able to better target your product and services and your pricing to actually acquire those customers – we focus quite a lot on that because the business-to-small-business, that is where we see the bigger opportunity,” she says.

56 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

THE AFRICA CEO FORUM

Time for transformation

The sixth edition of The Africa CEO Forum, held in Abidjan on 26-27 March, urged participants to take the governance of African companies to the next level

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Photos: Éric Larrayadieu, Jacques Torregano, with Kodjo Junior, Nazi Zekre Noël Emmanuel and Keita Mohamed J. Clemençot

4 7

1 Opening Ceremony, Africa CEO Forum 2 Doing Business in Ghana 3 Abdulsamad Rabiu, Chairman/CEO, BUA Group (left); Kuseni Dlamini, Chairman of the Board, Massmart 4 Amy Jadesimi, CEO, LADOL 5 Donald Kaberuka, former AfDB President 6 Philippe Labonne, THE AFRICA REPORT

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Executive Vice-president, Bolloré Africa Logistics 7 Chao Zhou, Vice-president, China-Africa Development Fund 8 Dominique Ouattara, Ivorian First Lady (centre) during a meeting with female business leaders 9 2018 Africa CEO Forum Awards winners: (left to right) Laurent Demey and Luc

Rigouzzo, Managing Partners, Amethis; Nadia Fettah, Managing Director, Saham Finances; Jean Kacou Diagou, Founder and President, NSIA; Junior John Ngulube, CEO, Sanlam; Amy Jadesimi, CEO, LADOL; Ravi Pokhriyal, President and Regional Head, Olam; Karim Lotfi Senhadji, CEO, OCP Africa

58 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

1 2

1 (Left to right) Mustapha Bakkoury, Chairman of the Board, Moroccan Solar Energy Agency; Danielle Ben Yahmed, Publisher, The Africa Report; Oba Otudeko, Founder & Chairman, Honeywell Group 2 TAR Debate: ‘The new Nigerian economy’ 3 Ken OforiAtta, Finance minister of Ghana 4 (Left to right) Amir Ben Yahmed, President, Africa CEO Forum; Emmerson Mnangagwa, President of Zimbabwe; Alassane Ouattara, President of Côte d’Ivoire; Nana Akufo-Addo, President of Ghana 5 Akinwumi Adesina, AfDB President (left); Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever 6 IFC stand at the Africa CEO Forum 7 Folorunso Alakija, Vice-chair, Famfa Oil 8 Clare Akamanzi, CEO, Rwanda Development Board 9 CEO Forum gala dinner 10 Oba Otudeko, Founder & Chairman, Honeywell Group (left); Henry S. Dickson, Governor of Bayelsa State (Nigeria) 11 (Left to right) Tonye Cole, Co-founder, Sahara Group; Emmerson Mnangagwa, President of Zimbabwe; Olusegun Obasanjo, former President of Nigeria

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60 BUSINESS | COMPANIES & MARKETS

Joseph Burite East Afric ca correspondent

Uganda’s liberal yet unfair economy

few constants characterise holidays like Easter in Uganda. The typical urban dweller troops off to his or her countryside ancestral home for festivities, dressed up in fashionable fabrics, perhaps to show off the fruits of life in the city. Normally in tow is luggage packed with gifts for folks in the village, oftenclothesalongwithloavesoffreshbread,asiftogive them a taste of town. Then there is the bus company, always determined to ruin such a festive mood with fare hikes as much as three times the regular price for no reason other than ‘It’s Easter’. On such days, even the best bargaining skills are rendered useless. You would think any government would be powerful enough to rein in such price distortions. The Ugandan one, though – not a chance, even if it wanted to. In this example the existing legal regime, under which the transport licensing board operates, does not provide for consumer protections beyond matters of safety. Such omissions are not limited to transport. In fact, such an alarming lack of safeguards in Uganda’s statutes looks suspicious – especially those governing sectors like finance, telecoms and construction, which also happen to have witnessed the highest levels of growth in recent years. In a country where business and politics mix freely with no regard for conflicts, policy-makers often use ambiguity in the law to foster perverse behaviour amongst cronies. Putting a lot of control in a few hands is common in Uganda. In late 2016, the central bank placed Crane Bank, a systematically significant lender, under statutory management. Crane Bank was owned by SudhirRuparelia,apoliticallyconnectedbusinessman with interests in real estate and other sectors. The central bank later sued Ruparelia, saying he had misappropriated funds from the bank. Ruparelia denies wrongdoing, and the case continues. In January 2017, the central bank then merged Crane Bank with another top-tier lender, DFCU Bank, which is controlled by the Norfund- and Rabobankled investment consortium, Arise. While the move was totally legal and within Bank of Uganda’s powers,

it was not lost on observers this was the second such action that went in DFCU’s favour, with no consideration as to whether it distorts the market. Finance is already a very highly concentrated sector. “Four major commercial banks, DFCU now among them, account for about 60% of the market,” says forex trading firm Alpha Capital’s Stephen Kaboyo. In the telecoms sector, 91% of Uganda’s market is controlled by South Africa’s MTN and India’s

In telecoms, 91% of Uganda’s market is controlled by MTN and Bharti Airtel Bharti Airtel, according to Uganda Communications Commission (UCC) figures. In a recent report, the UCC found that MTN engaged in discriminatory behaviour towards interconnection seekers. For a mobile-phone user like myself, of major concern is the virtual absence of tariff variations despite differences in scale among players, which suggests an element of price control. At the same time, Uganda’s tariffs remain higher than those of regional peers, a phenomenon the regulator blames on the country being landlocked. But aren’t Rwanda and Burundi landlocked too? In the telecoms field, a statutory tribunal meant to investigate such concerns remains unconstituted and, besides, it would have no powers to penalise. The case involving paint multinationals AkzoNobel and Kansai Plascon last year highlights problems caused by a lacuna in competition law. In 2017, Kansai Plascon acquired the AkzoNobel’s decadesold franchise holder in the region, Nairobi-based Sadolin Paints East Africa. Plascon was to maintain AkzoNobel’s Sadolin paint brand in all East Africa markets, including Uganda, where it had about 60% market share. But Kansai rebranded the entire operation as Plascon. Court battles continue, with consumers barely differentiating either brand. If only Uganda had a competition tsar, the terms of the merger could have been assessed and clarified at the outset. And while the Plascon transaction is under assessment by a Common Market for THE AFRICA REPORT

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COMPANIES & MARKETS | BUSINESS 61

Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) competition commission its decision will have no bearing on the local market as member countries are required to have national institutions to implement COMESA decisions. The East African Community, which passed a competition act in 2006, also awaits Uganda to meet its obligations. This has resulted in the delayed realisation of the East African Competition Authority, which is meant to regulate the regional common market. Even though Uganda’s 2014 ministerial policy statement prioritised the creation of the National Competition and Consumer Protection Commission, efforts to develop enabling legislation have been slow. Last year, President Yoweri Museveni ordered a review and cutting back on agency creation. But evidently, a case for antitrust structures exists. And as Museveni’s own methods suggest, he is well aware of this. In 2012, he forced Tullow to sell shares in oil fields to Total and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, deliberately preventing the Britishbased producer from assuming a dominant position in the nascent industry. The high number of mergers shows that the need for a watchful eye on competition is urgent. In the 19-member COMESA region, Uganda has also seen the fifth-highest number of mergers in the five years since 2013, only behind Kenya, Zambia, Mauritius and Zimbabwe. Mergers have been most THE AFRICA REPORT

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frequent in construction, banking and agriculture, according to COMESA statistics. A bill to create the competition commission is being drafted for tabling before parliament this year, according to Julius Onen, permanent secretary in Uganda’s ministry of trade and industry. “The cabinet has cleared it, so now it’s being drafted,” Onen tells The Africa Report. “We are hoping that by June or July we should be able to table it in parliament.” Such technical bills take an average of three years to go through parliamentary processes. But consid-

The high number of mergers shows the need for a watchful eye on competition ering the political distraction of a referendum on extending presidential term limits from five to seven years, and the general election to follow in 2021, we may be looking at five years before the bill passes. For the $29bn Ugandan economy, that means a likely five more years of investors like AkzoNobel and Kansai Plascon navigating a maze of ambiguous rules, which could ultimately hurt business confidence. It also means more mergers taking place without scrutiny, to the likely disadvantage of consumers. It means an unchecked reign of trade dominance, price maintenance, and enduring oddity in an increasingly integrated regional economy, and – more personally – expensive Easter travel.

62 BUSINESS | LEADERS

rench construction companyEiffagelanded a big project in Ghana in October last year, strengthening its recent expansion outside of its tradiAfrica director, Eiffage Infrastructures tional markets in Francophone Africa. Spearheading Eiffage’s continental strategy is Christian Combes, the Africa director of Eiffage Infrastructures, who has strong ties, in particular, to East Africa. “I was born in Madagascar, I also lived in Rwanda for four years and seven years in Kenya, so I know East Africa quite well. n the African Eiffage has created a sizeable niche in I spent the majority of my professional life there,” says Combes, ench multinationals construction market, working with Fre who worked with French engior growth and seeking out other opportunities fo neering firm Egis prior to joining Eiffage in May 2012. Eiffage is ventured outside of Senegal in oject with The group’s third pro France’s third-largest builder Bolloré was sealed in October 2014, securing a $98.6m contract behind Vinci and Bouygues. to extend the national assembly 2017, when its Eiffage Géénie Civil For the moment, though, and RMT subsidiaries signed a building in Libreville, Gabon. Four Eiffage Infrastructures, which years later, the group is rapidly €104m design-and-build d contract specialises in roadworks, civil expanding its operations across engineering and metal construcwith a Bolloré-led conso ortium for ENGINEERING a 97.6ha port platform att Tema in tion, is expanding its footprint on the continent. THE FUTURE project is Ghana. The 26-month p the western part of the continent, Combes says that rising popwhere it has been established part of a $1.5bn plan to upgrade ulations and rapid urbanisation 1997-1980 since the mid-1920s via Eiffage provide growth opportunities that and expand the facility so that it Studied at Eiffage intends to capitalise on. Sénégal. The parent company becomes West Africa’ss biggest Paris’s ENSAM “Urbanisation means the need port in 2019. Bolloré is a ttough clicrowned its 90-year presence in engineering school perations ent. “Up until now our op Senegal in October 2016, with the for public infrastructure such opening of the 71km Autoroute with Bolloré have gone vvery well,” as water, roads, transport infra1991-1996 de l’Avenir. The first section of says Combes. “It’s a relaationship structure. Urbanisation creates Regional the toll motorway director, connecting Dakar Sogea-Satom “We have history [with Senegal]. When you meet m to the new city your clients’ needs, they will always come ba ack” of Diamniadio 2000-2008 opened in August Director of Asia and built on trust, in this caase with a 2013, and the final phase connectan important middle class that Anglophone very demanding client..” ing it to Dakar’s new Blaise Diagne has increasing needs. It’s a huge Africa, International Airport opened in In West Africa therre is stiff opportunity,” he says. Egis Bceom 2016. The entire project is the first competition for contraacts from Fellow French firm Bolloré International greenfield road public-private Chinese builders, such as China Africa Logistics has been instrupartnership in sub-Saharan Africa. Communications Consstruction mental in the company’s Africa 2011-2012 Company, which is speaarheading growth, entrusting Eiffage with Deputy DAKAR AND BEYOND infrastructure developm ment along several of its projects in West general “We have history [with Senegal]. the Atlantic Coast. Likee Eiffage, Africa. Eiffage completed the manager, Egis When you meet your clients’ the multibillion-dollar Chinese extension of the container terInternational needs, they will always come conglomerate is involveed in the minal at Togo’s port of Lomé in back,” says Combes. The comTema port expansion project, June 2016. In September 2016, May 2012 pany’s Senegal revenue was more having signed a $476m contract Bolloré awarded Eiffage a €47m – present than €70m ($86m) in 2017, half in 2016 for the construcction of a design-and-build contract for Africa of the €140m it generated across new container terminall. the expansion of the container manager, the region. Funding from statee-owned terminal at the port of Freetown Eiffage Seeking to grow its Africa banks means Chinese ffirms can in Sierra Leone. The project is Infrastructures due for completion in mid-2018. often undercut their com mpetitors. portfolio, Eiffage Infrastructures

ombes Christian Co g to try We’re not going hinese and fight the Ch

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Says Combes: “We are not going to try and fight the Chinese. The problem is that they are stateowned companies, whereas we are privately held companies. We don’t have the same objectives, we don’t work in the same way and our economic models are not the same. Due to funding from China Exim Bank, their prices are very low […]. So when we see them arriving in countries where they have a strong presence, we know there’s no point [in counterbidding].” But Combes says where the Chinese have an upper ha n d i n

pricing, Eiffagee can challenge them when it co omes to quality: “We comply witth local regulations and local taaxation laws. We have high standards in terms of corporate sociall responsibility, environmental protection and security that theey don’t have. So we work in a com mpletely different way,” Combes saays. “Between a 30-year-old carr that has done 500,000km and d a brand new Mercedes, the price p is not the same. That’s how w civil engineering works today. Tho ose who want to work with comp panies that meet deadlines, havve high quality standards, emplo oy locals – I would say choose Eiffaage. Those that want cheaper inffrastructure can choose the Chin nese.”

Abiola Bawuah Nigeria’s United Bank for Africa (UBA) named Bawuah as its regional chief executive for West Africa in March. The former managing director of UBA’s Ghana operations brings years of experience, including at Zenith Bank and Standard Chartered.

SELECTIVE EXP PANSION

Interview by Oheneb ba Ama Nti Osei

Alioune Ndiaye The former director of Orange’s Sonatel subsidiary in Senegal became the French telecoms operator’s managing director for Africa and the Middle East in March. Orange operates in 21 countries in the region with an estimated 120 million customers.

Basani Maluleke In late March, Maluleke became the first black woman to lead a South African bank, taking over as CEO of African Bank. Her MBA and experience in banking and private equity should help in her task of turning the troubled lender around.

UBA; LAYEPRO.COM; GEOFF BROWN/AFRICAN BANK

PHO T

OTH ÈQ

UE E IF

FAGE

The French-Mallagasy engineer says Eiffage is in A Africa for the long haul, eyeing projjects not only in other West Affrican countries but also in Eaast Africa, where he already kn nows the ropes. “Our aim is i not to cover all the cou untries on the continent,”” Combes says. “We’re sim mply looking at certain cou untries with more interest th han others. And today thatt’s Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Ben nin and Burkina Faso. And in n East Africa, it’s Kenya, Tan nzania, Uganda.” Some cou untries will be avoided alttogether due to the high seecurity risk, and others, such as South Africa and Moroccco, where there are strong llocal companies in the secctor will not be considered. He says there is not much diffference between operating in A Anglophone and Francophone Africa, and adds that Eiffage In nfrastructures is expected to gen nerate more than €100m in revenu ue next year, with the aim to triplle or quadruple that in the next fivve years. “I think [if we get there] we would have worked hard.”

64 BUSINESS | FINANCE

NIGERIA

Nigeria’s gross domestic product is set to grow just 2.1% this year, in part due to commercial banks’ wariness about issuing loans to productive businesses in the private sector

PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP

Stuck in a lending rut

riskier. This situation is further compounded by government borrowing, which had been increasing until recently, crowding out the private sector. As the annual results season kicked off in March, the trend of growing profits amid marginal growth in lending, or, in some cases, reduced lending, continued. Two of the leading banks – Zenith and GTBank – recorded declines in loans and substantial increases in profits. While others, such as UBA, Access Bank and Stanbic IBTC, marginally increased lending and also recorded substantial growth in profits. Stanbic increased its loans by 5%, while gross earnings increased by 36%. Commenting on the bank’s performance, Yinka Sanni, chief executive of Stanbic IBTC, tells The Africa Report that the contribution to interest income from investment

Loans are needed to make the most of new developments in farm food, such as improved cassava

N billion

Consumer credit Ratio (%) Ratio of claims on core private sector (rhs)

800

780

760

740

720

700

Jun 15

Dec 15

Jun 16

securities and placements increased from 37% to 50%, while the contribution from loans and advances dropped from 63% to 50%. He says that the change in these elements was partly due to the bank’s cautious approach. “The Nigerian economy recently came out of recession after facing several challenges, including a significant drop in oil price, a fall in oil production owing to militancy in the Niger Delta, and foreign exchange illiquidity, which the advent of the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange window has reasonably addressed. With the country coming out of recession, we have seen business performance improve, but we still remain cautious with regard to our lending appetite,” Sanni says. CONCESSIONARY RATES

Nigeria Consumer Credit

SOURCE: CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA

espite the government’s efforts to stimulate the economy after the worst economic crisis in a generation, Nigeria’s banks are drip-feeding the real sector of the economy. Muda Yusuf, director general of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), notes that high interest rates mean banks are not supporting the economic recovery. “At best, people who take the bank loans take it for short-term deals, maybe for trading, but you can’t do any long-term investments with an interest rate of 25% to 35%.” Given the need for increased investment to sustain the recovery of the economy since its return to growth in the middle of 2017, the weak state of lending by banks to the private sector poses a threat to Nigeria’s economic recovery and the government’s goal of achieving growth rates in excess of 4% annually. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that credit to the private sector rose by 22.3% in 2016. But in 2017, that growth was estimated at -3.3%. The IMF predicts it will increase by just 1% this year. Speaking on the wider context, LCCI’s Yusuf observes that commercial banks cannot support the economy due to the cost and the tenor of funds available to them. About 90% of the banks’ funds are drawn from short-term sources such as customer deposits, so that makes long-term lending much

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Jun 17

Addressing what policies will encourage banks to lend more to the real sector, Sanni notes that the central bank and the government are supporting lending to core sectors by providing concessionary interest rates and priority access to foreign exchange, among other interventions. He adds: “The enforcement of legal rights and title will further encourage longterm and developmental lending.” The latter point suggests that banks may have found it difficult to enforce collateral terms when customers default on loans. With the rate of non-performing loans

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in the sector reaching 15% in June 2017, the reluctance of banks to issue new loans is unsurprising. With the Senate lifting its embargo on screening the President’s nominees to the central bank’s monetary policy committee, three out of four of the nominees were confirmed in the last week of March, allowing the committee to hold its first meeting of 2018 on 3-4 April. Analysts expected the committee to vote to reduce the headline interest rate by 25 basis points to 13.75%. However, the committee voted to keep the key rates unchanged, explaining that although it thought about loosening its policy stance to strengthen the outlook for growth, this could have the undesirable effect of fuelling a rise in consumer prices and exert pressure on the currency. In the light of the prevailing macroeconomic and policy situation, the LCCI’s Yusuf is not optimistic that much will change in terms of the banks providing lending support to the economy. He argues that unless a monetary policy framework that will align the profit objectives of the banks to the development objectives of the economy is established, the existing framework, which makes it attractive to invest in treasury bills, will not achieve much. “You dance to the rhythm of the economy. It is what the economy says you should do that you do. You are not in business for charity. You are not a development institution. You are a profit-making institution. So the environment, the policies, the incentives, the sanctions, will shape the behaviour of actors,” Yusuf says. Charles Idem in Lagos

Return of resource nationalism The prices for metals are drifting higher in these increasingly benign global conditions. And, such is the season, so is the desire of African governments to get greater gains from the mining sector. For shareholders and owners of mining firms, this is called resource nationalism and is a shortsighted position taken by governments that fail to appreciate the billions of dollars of investment pumped into the sector in the lean times. For governments whose memories go a little further back, the billions do little to offset the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars that are regularly spirited out of the continent by mining companies, legally, via artful tax planning.

Kabila ups the ante But this high-minded position is deflated somewhat in the case of the Congolese government, whose moral stance is undermined by the regime’s refusal to hold elections. The government has enacted a tough mining law that international companies are desperately lobbying against. But while the companies claim the new law will scare off investors, people keep buying iPhones. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) mines more than half of global cobalt production and cobalt is essential for batteries. The clause that holds the greatest alarm is a 50% tax on windfall profits. The government can also determine ‘strategic’ metals, whose royalty rates will hit 10%.

Mnangagwa’s narrow embrace While Zimbabwe’s president was doing his fundraising lap (see page 26), legislators were hard at work in Harare. The DRC’s 50% tax on windfall profits may recall a Zimbabwean mining requirement that forced all investors to hand over more than half of their company to local investors. President Mnangagwa has been at pains to stress that this ‘indigenisation’ law has been repealed. In its place, however, is a new requirement surrounding the local listing of subsidiaries. Critics wonder just how much money can be raised in Zimbabwe, given its leadership is jet-setting to raise funds. Across the border, in South Africa, the same debate is unlikely to go away, with the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters keen to force a spotlight on the issue.

EXPERTISE IN AFRICAN RAILWAY MANAGEMENT www.vecturis.com

Claude Kontcho, Operations Manager, SETRAG / GABON

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Generating

crises The blackouts are behind Eskom, but the state-run utility now generates too much electricity, cannot recoup its costs and is struggling to pay off the money it is borrowing to build new plants. Can the new leadership find the long-term solutions it needs?

By Erin Conway-Smith in Johannesburg

outh Africa’s beleaguered state power utility is plotting a new course after a decade of electricity shortages, corruption problems and mounting debt. There is fresh urgency in reforming Eskom following changes at the helm of the governing African National Congress (ANC) and the country. Cyril Ramaphosa, who became South Africa’s president in February after scandal-plagued Jacob Zuma was forced to resign, has made addressing Eskom’s woes a priority. But even with strong political backing from business-friendly Ramaphosa, turning around

R367bn Eskom’s debt burden reported in its six months to endSeptember results SOURCE: ESKOM

the power monopoly will be a herculean task. Energy experts question whether Eskom will be able to undertake long-overdue and deep reforms. Ramaphosa, after becoming head of the ANC at a December party conference, moved quickly tochangetheleadershipofEskom, which has been roiled by claims of corruption in recent years. He appointed a new Eskom board led by the respected Jabu Mabuza, previously chairman of Telkom. Ramaphosa named Phakamani Hadebe interim chief executive to stabilise leadership at the utility. A new chief executive and other senior leaders are due to be named soon. In early April, Ramaphosa

Eskom’s renewable energy deals have angered trade unions over job losses

also referred the allegations of corruption and maladministration at Eskom – and Transnet, another state-owned company – to the Special Investigating Unit, which investigates malpractice at state institutions. In a cabinet shuffle in February, Ramaphosa appointed Pravin Gordhan, a two-time finance minister, as minister of public enterprises. Jeff Radebe, who is seen as a safe pair of hands, became energy minister.

RODGER BOSCH/AFP

A LONG WAY TO GO

Despite the changes, ratings agency Moody’s further downgraded Eskom’s credit rating on 28 March, from B2 to B1 – the fifth tier of junk status. Moody’s noted that the leadership changes were a positive start, allowing Eskom to secure short-term funding and avoid a near-term default, but said they do not go far enough. What Eskom needs, according to Moody’s, is a clear path towards stabilising its longer-term financial and business positions. “Eskom’s challenges are complex and not easy to resolve,” the ratings agency said in its press release. Khulu Phasiwe, Eskom’s spokesman, says that a one-year business plan is currently under discussion by the board and due to be completed by late September. A longer-term strategy is also being developed. “We still have a long way to go,” Phasiwe admits. “But Eskom has made strides, and the market is beginning to take notice.” A significant, stubborn challenge is flat demand for electricity. This is taking place against a background of rising debt levels and high operational costs for Eskom. The economy is stagnant, with Eskom selling less electricity in 2017 than in 2007. Eskom currently generates more electricity than necessary, in stark contrast to the power cuts of recent years. In 2008, and again in 2014 and 2015, there was ‘load shedding’ as delays in building new power plants combined with

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The to-do list for Eskom’s new management Debt Doug Kuni, an independent energy analyst, says Eskom must address its huge debt. “It’s time to batten down the hatches,” he says. Eskom wants higher electricity tariffs to help it pay back its loans, but the regulator says that the rises Eskom has requested are too high for consumers. Major rating agencies Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s have warned this year about Eskom’s liquidity and its ability to meet its debt obligations.

BALLOONING PAYROLL

Privatisation

THE NOUN PROJECT: CONSUMER FINANCIAL PROTECTION BUREAU; DINOSOFT LABS; SHANSEL

There are problems elsewhere. Over the past decade the number of employees at Eskom increased from 32,674 to 47,658, despite a reduced demand for power. While cutbacks to staff are needed, this would almost certainly meet resistance from South Africa’s strong unions, which are allied to the ANC. To boost revenue, Eskom has repeatedly applied for significant increases in tariffs from the energy regulator.Eskomrequesteda19.9% tariff hike for the 2018/2019 financial year, but the regulator granted a 5.2% increase in December. The utility will need to borrow R72bn rand for this financial year, including a loan repayment and operational costs. “Eskom has always been dependent on the government to bail them out,” Kuni says. “And the government continues to bail them out. If Eskom was another company, they would have folded long ago.” South Africa currently relies on coal for nearly 80% of its power. An updated Integrated Resource Plan, which would provide policy guidance on the future of the energy sector, is long overdue to be released.

Interim CEO Phakamani Hadebe

F. DLANGAMANDLA/FOTO24/GALLO/GETTY

backlogs in the maintenance of older ones to create a crisis. Delayed interim financial statements show that Eskom’s debt burden is now R367bn ($31bn). Municipalities owe Eskom more than R30bn, leading to threats from the utility to shut off power. The costs of building two new coal-fired power plants, Medupi and Kusile, have mushroomed amid repeated delays in construction. The plants are not due to be fully completed until 2021 and 2022. “It is a very difficult situation for Eskom,” independent energy analyst Doug Kuni says. “They have to continue borrowing to continue building, but Eskom cannot continue the new build at any cost.” Meridian Economics, a Cape Town-based consultancy, argues that Eskom should curtail construction of the Kusile plant and decommission older coalfired power stations to cut costs.

The ANC under President Ramaphosa has mooted privatisation as a solution to some of the problems that ail state-owned enterprises. That idea has political support from other areas of the political spectrum. Natasha Mazzone, shadow minister for public enterprises for the opposition Democratic Alliance party, says that Eskom’s monopoly over energy in South Africa is “incredibly unhealthy”.

Coal vs. green Eskom said last year that it can meet any increase in demand until 2021 and had excess capacity of 5,600MW at times of peak demand. Two new coal-fired plants, Medupi and Kusile, are due to be fully completed by 2021/2022. Another 2,300MW will be added to the grid over the next five years under long-delayed agreements with 27 independent renewable energy power producers, signed by energy minister Jeff Radebe on 4 April.

Meanwhile, Eskom was late in signing 27 agreements worth $4.7bn under a department of energy plan to procure renewable energy from independent producers. Eskom signed the deals on 4 April, despite a court action by the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa, which represents Eskom employees. The union says 40,000 jobs will be lost. Since the government established the independent producers plan in 2011, demand for electricity has dropped as the economy slowed. Ted Blom, a former senior Eskom executive who is now a partner at Mining & Energy Advisors, says the last thing Eskom needs is more grid capacity. Blom calculates that the average price for the renewables will be far more expensive than coal. He adds that Eskom is taking on more power supply and debt obligations that it can ill afford. Those power-producing agreements will “decimate” Eskom’s cash flow and its ability to pay its debt, Blom says, adding: “The cumulative effect on Eskom is disastrous.” Other analysts say that the renewables could be cheaper than coal. A 2016 comparative analysis by the Pretoria-based Council for Scientific and Industrial Research found the cost of electricity from new solar photovoltaic and wind technologies to be 40% cheaper than new coal base load. CLIMATE ENGAGEMENTS

Roger Lilley, a Johannesburgbased energy analyst, points out that South Africa has to meet its international engagements on climate protection : “The reality is that renewable energy will be part of our electricity generation programme going forward,” he says. “One way or another, the power utility has to generate electricity without polluting the atmosphere, and the only way it can do that is to go for renewable energy.” Lilley says that Eskom needs to close five of its old, inefficient coal-fired power plants that do not meet emissions standards. Anton Eberhard, a professor and infrastructure specialist at the University of Cape Town’s THE AFRICA REPORT

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Graduate School of Business, argues that Eskom’s financial situation cannot be fixed in the medium to long term unless the government unbundles transmission and generation.

Wheelers and dealers: Jacob Zuma with Vladimir Putin

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CONFLICT OF INTEREST

Eberhard says this could be done through the creation of an independent transmission system and a market operator – initially as a subsidiary of Eskom that could later be spun off into a separate state-owned firm. “Eskom’s current conflict of interest as both a generator and buyer of power will be removed,” Eberhard explains. According to energy analyst Kuni, the best prospects for privatisation are in power generation. Some investors might balk at getting involved with coal-fired plants. Eskom’s older stations, which use old technology and lack sufficient pollution mitigation, need investments in newer, cleaner technology. “It’s all doable, and it can be done in the medium to long term,” Kuni says. “Unless [Eskom] looks at privatisation and bringing in private partnerships, I don’t see how it can wipe out its debt.” The ANCunderRamaphosahas mooted privatisation as a solution to some of the problems that ail state-owned enterprises. That idea has political support from other areas of the political spectrum. Natasha Mazzone, shadow minister for public enterprises for the opposition Democratic Alliance party, says: “We need to look at how to keep up with different technologies, and how we introduce competition into our energy market […]. These are things that should have been looked at, and plans should have been made 20 years ago. But it just wasn’t in the government’s best interests to introduce competition into our electricity market.” She concludes: “Now we sit with a position where Eskom is virtually financially bankrupt – the amount of debt that Eskom has is obscene – and we’re in a changing world. […] Unfortunately this is a company that has failed to keep up with the changes.”

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Nuclear nixed The government is looking into dubious deals signed under the tenure of President Zuma

he deal could have bankrupted South Africa. In 2014, then president Jacob Zuma paid a secretive visit to Vladimir Putin in Russia. Shortly after came the announcement of a nuclear agreement between South AfricaandRosatom,aRussianstate nuclear company. The plan was to builda seriesof reactorsthatwould generate 9,600MW – at a price tag of a whopping R1trn ($82.9bn). Energy analysts argued that the projects were unnecessary given South Africa’s sluggish economy and excess power supply. Court challenges stalled the plan, with a High Court judge ruling last year that the award process had been unconstitutionalandZumashould havesoughtparliamentaryapproval.Zumaalsosackedtworespected finance ministers – Nhlanhla Nene and Pravin Gordhan – who resisted the nuclear deal. Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa's new president, made his views clear in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos: “We have excess power, and we have no money for major nuclear plant building […]. We have said the nuclear process will be looked at in

R1trn Cost of the deal between South Africa and Rosatom for a fleet ofnuclear reactors

SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA

the broad context of affordability. It doesn’t really make sense as we don’t have the money.” Ted Blom, a South African energy analyst, adds: “Nuclear has its merits […] but Putin and Zuma’s nuclear was unaffordable.” Natasha Mazzone, the shadow minister for public enterprises, says that while she is confident the nuclear deal is off, “it is something that we’re going to have to keep a very close eye on.” In September 2017, parliament’s public enterprises committee began an inquiry into Eskom and two other state-owned companies embroiled in the unfolding ‘state capture’scandal.The Gupta brothers, wealthy Indian-born businessmenwhoareclosefriendsofZuma, are accused of exerting improper influenceoncabinetofficialstowin contracts from state enterprises. Mazzone adds: “We’ve now discovered through our inquiry just how intricate the web of state capture was, and how systematically various parts of Eskom were used to siphon money to certain family members and politically connected influential people.” E.C-S.

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GABON

the media to argue their cases . The Gabonese government maintains that, in addition to skimping on investment, Veolia was responsible for pollution at several sites that the SEEG managed. Gabon’s water and energy minister Patrick Eyogo Edzang told Jeune Afrique: “We have damning proof, especially photos of a lake polluted with oil.” Communication minister AlainClaude Bilie-By-Nze added that there was environmental damage at almost all of the SEEG’s sites. Veolia officials denied the government’s allegations. They said thatthegovernmentneverbrought up environmental problems in more than a dozen audits of its operations over the past 10 years.

Water war Libreville nationalised Veolia’s stake in a water and electricity company in February, and the French company is seeking mediation and possible arbitration complained about water cuts over several years. Relations between the government and Veolia, however, seemed to improve last year when the two reached an agreement about paying their respective debts to each other. In its public statements, Veolia has said that the nationalisation of its stake in the SEEG was illegal and that it had done even more than it had promised. It says it invested $558m in Gabon, more than its concession contract called for. Veolia also says that its contract shows it is the government’s responsibility to pay for new installations. The ICSID will seek a compromise between the two parties, and Veolia says it is willing to go to arbitration if Libreville refuses to relent. Veolia has controlled the SEEG since 1997, and the government renewed the French company’s contract for another five years in March 2017. Since the February conflict, both sides have turned to

$1bn

Veolia’s turnover from its Africa operations, which include businesses in Egypt, Morocco and Niger

RELATIONS SOURED

SOURCE: VEOLIA

The Gabonese authorities physically took over SEEG headquarters in February

PHOTOTHEQUE VEOLIA - CHRISTOPHE MAJANI D’INGUIMBERT

he government of Gabon and the French utility Veolia are at daggers drawn over the future of Libreville-based water and electricity company Société d’Energie et d’Eau du Gabon (SEEG). On 16 February, the Gabonese authorities physically took over the headquarters of the company that was 51% owned by the French firm and cancelled its concession in a dispute about service quality. On 8 March, Veolia launched a complaint at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) after a month of unsuccessful attempts to make peace. At the centre of the dispute is President Ali Bongo Ondimba’s government’s claims that Veolia has provided poor services and has not spent what it was supposed to on infrastructure investment and upkeep. The populations of major Gabonese cities including Libreville, Port-Gentil and Franceville have regularly

Gabon is an important Africa market for Veolia. In Africa, the French group is also active in Egypt, Morocco and Niger. In February, it reported a 3.5% rise in its 2017 global turnover to €25.1bn ($30.9bn). Veolia regularly has turnover of about €1bn from its African operations. Gabon and France have maintained close economic ties over the years. Pierre Gattaz, the president of French business lobby Medef, wrote to Gabon’s prime minister in March to complain about what he sees as the poor state of relations betweentheLibrevillegovernment and French companies. French food services company Sodexo andoilservicescompanyBouygues Energies & Services pulled out of Gabon during the country’s economic downturn in 2017, leaving a string of legal cases from former employees behind them. Meanwhile, Russia’s ambassador to Gabon, Dmitry Kourakov, added an additional geopolitical twist to the SEEG saga in March. He said that Russia’s RusHydro would soon set up shop in Gabon in the water and electricity market. Energy minister Edzang denied there had been any such talks with RusHydro, saying that the government was going to take its time to study the SEEG’s operations before looking for a new partner in the project in perhaps a year.

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Juan Laso

Executive president, Alten Energías Renovables, Spain

The Spanish renewable energy producer has big plans for sub-Saharan Africa, with projects in Namibia, Kenya and Nigeria. Executive president Juan Laso describes the lay of the land

ompared to its European neighbours, Spain is not particularly known for its presence in Africa. But in renewable energy the Spanish are almost everywhere. “We are very strong in this field,” says Juan Laso, executive president of Alten Energías Renovables. “We started installing solar in Spain around 2007. In 2008, Spain alone was 50% of the global market, at 2.5GW. Now, you can find Spanish people in Chinese manufacturers and [renewable energy] companies all over the world.” Spanish company SENER is involved in some of the projects at Morocco’s flagship Noor solar development. Independent power producer (IPP) Alten Africa, a fully owned subsidiary of Alten Energías Renovables, is focusing its efforts south of the Sahara. By September 2018, Alten Africa expects to start commercial operations at a newly built solar plant in Namibia. Situated in the Hardap region, south of the capital, Windhoek, it should pump out 112GW of clean electricity per annum. “We reached financial close with Standard Bank and [French development finance body] Proparco. THE AFRICA REPORT

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We want 500MW under construction by 2022 And now we are starting the construction of the project,” says Laso. Alten Africa is also active in Nigeria, where it has a power purchase agreement with Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading. Nigeria brings more administrative headaches than Namibia: “There is a new version of the government guarantee. There are some processes ongoing for the stabilisation of the electrical system to reinforce the bankability framework.” COUNTERING RISKS

As in many African jurisdictions, getting the proper guarantees is critical for accessing long-term funds. Alten Africa is applying for the World Bank’s Political Risk Guarantee and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency schemes. “Every market has its

“It’s clear that the financial stability and experience of the off-takers are key”

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difficulties,” says Laso. “In Namibia with NamPower, there are no guarantees from the government. [But] NamPower has a very good track record. In Kenya […] we have an off-taker, Kenya Power and Lighting Company, with a good reputation for dealing with IPPs.” In Nigeria, the guarantees required include clauses about losses due to corruption. “It’s clear that the financial stability and experience of the off-takers are key to have a better environment and cost of the project,” says Laso.

Alten Energías Renovables is also investing in Latin America, giving it a unique perspective on developing projects on two continents. The contrast between African countries and Mexico is stark due to the size of Mexico’s economy, the strength of the country’s main utility company and a newly overhauled regulatory framework. “It has created a lot of appetite for Mexico […]. You can find a significant number of banks interested in those projects. And the grid is well managed,” says Laso. “In Africa, it’s more difficult. The grids are weaker, and also frameworks are weaker. It needs more work. They are not so experienced in these countries.” Laso remains positive that Alten will be able to find banks in Nigeria interested in financing renewable power projects, despite many local banks getting their fingers burnt lending to the power sector a few years ago: “I am absolutely sure [we will find bank financing in Nigeria] once we have the framework that we need,” he says. In Nigeria, the bulk of funding will come from international sources. Alten Africa has partnered with South African investment fund Evolution II to bring a bigger balance sheet – and experience in green energy – to its project pipeline. The goal: “To have in five years’ time, by the end of 2022, around 500MW under construction,havingreachedfinancialclose and operating in sub-Saharan Africa”, concludes Laso. Interview by Mark Anderson

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Wealth of Nations, installation by Victor Ehikhamenor, represented by Tyburn Gallery, UK

capital, represent one of them. They chose to travel to Dubai for the show with a view to positioning themselves globally. Sile says: “Ethiopia has a burgeoning art scene but it’s not where regular collectors would go to find art, so we have to put ourselves front and centre.” Opened in 2016, Addis Fine Art is the only international gallery in Ethiopia, representing artists both at home and in the diaspora. “Addis is a centre for things, notjustforEthiopiabuttheAfricanUnion is there and other international organisations,” Haileleul says. “We wanted a place where the artist community could have curated shows, representation directly from Ethiopia and to cultivate the collector base locally. Ethiopians collect paintings, that’s been the case for a long while, back to the modernist painters. They are heavily collected by the local and diaspora community. We’re trying to see if there is an appetite for photography and new media.”

KURNIADI WIDODO

REACHING THE COLLECTORS

African and diaspora artists shone at this year’s Emirates art fair, making the case for Africa-based galleries to forge links beyond the continent while nurturing a young collector base at home THE AFRICA REPORT

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By Billie Adwoa McTernan in Dubai

he 12th edition of Art Dubai kicked off with a dazzling opening in March. Visitors were welcomed with champagne and roses, and given a tour detailing some of the Middle East’s major moments in art history. The halls were packed with galleries, including a small but strong contingent showing artists from Africa. Rakeb Sile and Mesai Haileleul, directors of Addis Fine Art in the Ethiopian

Haileleul notes the growth in art institutions from and on the continent in the past five years, with an increase in the number of biennales, public museums and contemporary African art fairs. But he feels – given the size and diversity of the continent – that more work needs to be done on the international stage. It might not be a surprise, given its proximity, business and cultural ties, that Addis Fine Art has a significant number of collectors from the Middle East: 20% of sales, Sile says, come from the region. But over on the other side of the continent that figure is somewhat lower. Marwan Zakhem, director of Gallery 1957 in Accra, Ghana, says only 5-10% of his gallery’s sales are to buyers of Middle Eastern origin. “When we talk about Africa we’re talking about a big continent and, especially when it’s tied to the Middle East, you really have to separate North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. If you look around here there are 70 or 80 galleries and nine or ten representing Africa, but only two are sub-Saharan.” Though this was the gallery’s first Art Dubai outing, in January it took over the Lawrie Shabibi gallery in Dubai for the duration of an exhibition by Ghanaian artist Serge Attukwei Clottey. Zakhem notes that the growing status of artists

DREAM SEQUENCE

The piece is a mixed-media installation composed of threads, feathers and ropes of fabric that would be recognisable to anyone who has witnessed a masquerade or even fumbled their way through many a West African fabric market. The paper and canvas works Ehikhamenor produced as part of the dream sequence over the course of the four-week residency are layered with his signature arched and rounded inscriptions, inspired from his village in Edo State. “Some of my iconographies [are] something that is familiar to them because a lot of artists here use calligraphy in their work,” he says, drawing on the resonance between the two. “Whereas mine isn’t Arabic calligraphy it could

SEBASTIANO PELLION DI PERSANO/COURTESY OF ADDIS FINE ART

from West and Central Africa internationally is gradually tipping the balance. “The more we can get Africa-based galleries to come to art fairs like this [the better],” Zakhem says. “There is a huge collector base here, you can tell by how well it is represented, [and] we can’t ignore a market like this. We are one of the first and we are ready to invest and be the forerunners. We have the talent, it’s just about getting it out there, you need that bridge.” In a bid to build that bridge Art Dubai launched its first residency programme this year with 11 artists from across the world. They included Victor Ehikhamenor from Nigeria and Zohra Opoku from Ghana. For Ehikhamenor, the Emirati dream was the starting point for an artistic thought process that culminated in an elaborate 8.3-foot-tall piece, The Metamorphosis of a Tall Dream. In this work, the world’s tallest building, Dubai’s Burj Khalifa, is reimagined in the image of the world’s tallest masquerade, the IgunnukooftheYorubapeopleinNigeria.

TOM DULAT/GETTY IMAGES/AFP

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mean that some time in the past there was a relationship between these lines.” Similarities in style could also be observed in the modernist paintings of both the Arab world and West Africa. As Ehikhamenor fused his regular practice

with what he observed in Dubai to explore a narrative, similarly GermanGhanaian artist Opoku continued the conversation she had begun with her body of work ‘Harmattan Tales’ – pieces examining Muslim women’s lives in

Highlights and innovations THIS YEAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME, Art Dubai included a four-to-eightweek residency programme for artists from 11 countries. To encourage conversations and collaboration, the artists worked in studios across the city to produce work for the fair. Indian

artist Poonam Jain, who is represented by 1x1 Gallery in Dubai, presented work that used labour cards, identical to those carried by millions of the city’s migrant workers to clock in their hours at construction sites. Faris Alosaimi from Saudi Arabia considered

home and the idea of development by creating canvases depicting the conflict between the two. Using charcoal, a memory from his youth, and cement, a modern marker of construction, Alosaimi’s work looks at what can be lost when society forfeits simplicity for modernity.

In one of the main gallery halls, Voice Gallery, based in Marrakech, presented work by Sara Ouhaddou, Michele Ciacciofera and Eric van Hove. Visitors were inspired by the latter’s mixed-media construction of a prototype engine for an electric motorbike

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will move on to maybe Brazilian art in the next five years, but if you don’t have the local patrons the market just dips.” As a result of his frequent travels around Africa, Farhad Bakhtiar, a Dubai-based Iranian collector, made his first foray into the contemporary art scene 10 years ago. In that time he has observed an expansion of interest in art from the continent from his Middle Eastern contemporaries. A temporary exhibition of his collection in the Alserkal Avenue gallery district included works by Malian painter Amadou Sanogo and Rwandan-Ugandan artist Collin Sekajugo.

Above: Visitors at the Art Dubai fair. Left: Photographs by Girma Berta at Addis Fine Art. Right: Pink Circle by Modupeola Fadugba at Accra’s Gallery 1957

FUNDING THE ART SPACE

Accra. Here, her protaganist is a young Sudanese woman working in Dubai. Opoku is represented by the Mariane Ibrahim Gallery based in Seattle, which has a roster of artists from all over the world. In 2017 the gallery won the inaugural Armory Show ‘Presents’ prize for its solo stand showing Opoku’s ‘Unraveled Threads’ series. At Art Dubai the gallery’s stand had a steady rotation of visitors with pieces selling out within the first couple of days. In Nigeria a young collector base is emerging. The sale of one of three famous Tutu portraits by Ben Enwonwu for £1.2mn ($1.7mn) in early March at

the London auction house Bonhams, has piqued interest further, and in Lagos, where there are exhibitions and gallery events almost every week, there is talk of a private museum soon to be opening up. Abuja-based collector Kola Aina has built his collection over the past eight years with work mainly by Nigerian artists. Up until the last couple of decades, he says, the typical collectors were the professional class, the top lawyers, accountants and consultants. Then oil money began to pour in. “Everyone knows local patronage is really what helps grow the market,” he says. “Because the hype passes and people

using materials found in Morocco, including bone, copper and mahogany. Van Hove says he hopes the locally produced Morocco-made engines will become a sustainable alternative option across the region. The fair’s Global Art Forum focused on

artificial intelligence and robotics, indicating a more conceptual turn in the fair’s programming. Discussions were led by writer and curator Shumon Basar and included a presentation by artistic director of the Serpentine Galleries in London Hans Ulrich

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Obrist, and a screening and Q&A session with Kenyan filmmaker Wanuri Kahiu, whose award-winning 2009 sci-fi film Pumzi has become a reference point for ideas and conversations about Afrofuturism on the continent. B.McT

The initial investment from national institutions is what has pushed the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ahead of the curve. In the 50 years since the union began, the creative industries have been harnessed and centred in the three cities: Abu Dhabi – where the Louvre opened in November 2017; Sharjah, which hosts a biennale and book fair; and Dubai. While the model may have worked for the UAE, Ayo Adeyinka, director of TAFETA art dealership in London, believes African countries may have to take a different approach. “It’s a completely different society,” he asserts. “Of course I would like us to replicate what we’re seeing here where the powers that be are buying in the expertise and funding the art space, but I’d rather health and education was better funded in any part of Africa – we’ve got other priorities. I’m not selfish enough to think we should be having a Louvre Lagos when we don’t have electricity. Besides, you’re not going to have a vibrant art district if you don’t have the transport to get you there.” “If we [in the arts] keep doing what we [are] doing in industry, we are building an ecosystem,” he adds, noting that more funding could come from the private sector: “What we need is institutionalised communication of the arts to the public, and our museums to be reinvigorated and re-energised with the beautiful works of modern art they already have.”

76 ART & LIFE

MUSIC

Makossa

sound of the city

Douala will forever be associated with the rhythm of makossa, even if the music-crazed Cameroonian city now grooves to a different urban beat

n a Saturday night at the Stade Omnisports in the Douala neighbourhood of Bepanda, concert-goers bristle as they wait for their artist. Four men walk arduously onto the hall’s stage, carrying an ornate coffin on their shoulders. The crowd jitters as the men lower the casket. They open the lid. The elegant corpse raises its head and jumps out, frantically pacing the stage. The crowd goes ballistic. The dead man walking is Petit Pays, Cameroon’s most popular makossa musician. The artist unleashes makossa ballads from his rich repertoire. Fans enthusiastically gyrate to his voice and the instruments of Les Sans Visas, the most influential makossa band in Douala. Over the years Petit Pays has groomed countless makossa artists and inducted them into his band. Singing in Duala, French and Cameroonian Pidgin they pluck inspiration from the coastal city’s traditional rhythms like Assiko, Essewe and Bolo Bo, but are also inspired by foreign sounds. Ghanaian hi-life, Zouk, Soukous and Ambas Bay – played by Jamaican crewmen during their sojourns in the humid metropolis – can all be found in makossa music. The genre came to the fore through its founding father, Emmanuel Nelle

Eyoum, in the 1960s, but it was the talented saxophonist and songwriter Manu Dibango who disseminated makossa globally with his 1972 hit ‘Soul Makossa’ (see box). However, no makossa musician has enjoyed as stellar a career as Petit Pays. His 1995 album Classe F/M had such success both critically and commercially that it remains arguably makossa’s magnum opus. STREET OF JOY

Douala’s nightlife of bright lightts and sounds offers an antidote to its dyssfunctional commuter scene. The nighttclubs and bars play all kinds of musicc to its ut Rue dancing and drinking people. Bu de la Joie in the Deido neighbourrhood trumps them all. A lengthy street flaanked by dozens of snack bars, motelss, suya (meat skewers) and fish-burning kiosks, k the ‘street of joy’ has become the ep picentre of Douala’s night life. Its multicolloured buildings, embellished by giant pho otos of Manu Dibango, Petit Pays and celeb brated m loud Cameroonian footballers, scream music across the suya-scented streeets in a collective musical stew. The footballers themselves occassionallyvisitthesespotsofnightpleasure, aftera successful spell at their various Euro opean d hook clubs. They meet old friends and

MANU DIBANGO’S 1972 hit single ‘Soul Makossa’ was the first song by an African artist to make it into the US Billboard Hot 100 chart in 1973, peaking at number 23. The song’s playful vocal refrain, ‘Ma ma Ko, ma ma Sa, ma ma Ma Ko Sa’, was poached and sampled by many international stars, su uch as Michael Jackson in ‘Wanna Be Startin’ Somethin’ and Rihanna in ‘Plea ase Don’t Stop the Music’, prompting Manu to sue both artists and win compensation. Charles Lembe, Moni Bilé, Ekambi Brillant, Bébé Manga, Ben Decca and Dina Bell were among the next generation of artists who kept the makossa wheel spinning. It even found its way into schools: gifte ed singers and instrumentalists began to hone their craft in student music contests. This led to the emergence of prodigies like Toto Guillaume, a ke ey member of Les Black Styl, one of the most popular makossa bands from Douala in the ’70s. Toto is credited as makossa’s first arranger. N.A.

CALABASH MUSIC GROUP

Ma Ma ko, ma ma sa, Ma ma ma Ko Sa a

ART & LIFE 77

Clockwise from left: Manu Dibango (on sax) with trumpeter Fax Clark and Bébé Manga in Douala, 1990; Daphne; makossa maestro Petit Pays; Wax Dey

Daphne believes, however, that there is a shift from Douala to Buea as the engine of Cameroon’s fast-growing music genres: “It is where young talented Camerooniansfromdiversebackgrounds have come to leverage their talents, their traditional sounds and exposure to other genres of music to create the new urban sound of Cameroon,” she says.

up wiith new girlfriends. They ‘faroter’ wads of cash and lavish the best liquor, whilee a handsomely paid nightclub DJ yells ttheir names and sings flatteries over a groo ovy ‘faire le boucan’ beat. Tho ough the legendary sound of makossaa is fading, 21st-century Douala is back tto being a musical centrifugal force, with aartists from different ethnic groups cashiing in on its ready market for the curreent urban musical wave. Daaphne is one of Cameroon’s most famous young Afropop singers. Her hit songss are on every stereo in Douala, THE AFRICA REPORT

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STEVENS MUSIC ENTERTAINMENT LLC

ZACHARIE NGNOGUE/STUDIOXLDOUALA

BÉATRICE SOULÉ/ROGER-VIOLLET

THE BEAT GOES ON

cementing her status as the embodiment of the new beat. Her music is no doubt influenced by makossa and the Sawa Blues, but she has fused them with other traditional rhythms to create a new sound that is now the dominant genre in Cameroon. “Douala now dances to more than just makossa. It increasingly is becoming the lucrative market that promotes and consumes the new urban sound of Cameroon,” she says, speaking from Buea, the small mountain town in the English-speaking South West Region.

Another Afropop singer, Wax Dey, came to the limelight in 2013 with a groovy release aptly titled ‘Saka Makossa’, which he recorded in a Nigerian studio on a beat made by D’Banj’s producer. The song also samples the legendary refrain from ‘Soul Makossa’. Wax Dey later released the remix featuring Yemi Alade. “I have run from the calm and predictability of Johannesburg, the heights and lights of New York, to re-establish myself in this city – in all its heat and humidity – because the sounds, the lights, the incessant hustle and bustle in the honking traffic quagmires, and the sweet smell of roasted fish or meat at every corner, a clink of bottle at the local bars, and the bourgeois calm of its classier neighbourhoods, with its sway of beautiful women and elegantly dressed men, are the same sights and sounds and smells that gave birth to my soul, my inspiration – that made me who I am,” he muses poetically. Just like Wax, young millennials and diaspora returnees now abound in Douala; Francophones, Anglophones and a robust contingent of Doualaborn-and-bred French and Lebanese, as well as Asians and Nigerians. They are listening to newer sounds: Maitre Gims, Tekno, WizKid, Locko, Toofan, Jovi, X Maleya, DJ Arafat and Charlotte Dipanda. The city regularly boasts of sold-out concerts and hip-hop festivals. Douala remains the vibrant football-loving city that birthed Samuel Eto’o, the city where gleaming tones of the bass guitar still fret like drums. Old makossa artists are still creating fistfuls of beautiful makossa music. But with the current wave of urban music arresting its heart, will the new ears of Douala listen as the old ears used to do? Nkiacha Atemnkeng in Douala

TWITTER TRENDS DANGOTE'S DAUGHTER'S WEDDING

Uche Pedro

With presidents, film stars and Bill Gates invited, Fatima Dangote’s nuptuals had Lagosians obsessed

The founder of BellaNaija online magazine was in Abidjan for ADICOM Days in March to inspire other African digital entrepreneurs

KayO @KayO_GH

Dangote’s daughter’s wedding guest-list be looking like:

What is the first thing you do in the morning before getting to work? TWITTER@KAYO_GH

I pray. It’s important for me, as I believe that spiritual aspect sets the tone of my day. There are so many things beyond your control that can happen in a day, praying helps to keep your focus.

Do you have a special song that you listen to when you’re going through hard times?

#TeamMina @chizoba_ella

Not really (laughs). But lately, I’ve been listening a lot to ‘Particula’ by Major Lazer. You know, that song had Jidenna, Patoranking and Ice Prince. The track puts me in a good mood. I’m also listening quite frequently to ‘FIA’ by Davido, one of my favourites at the moment.

“Do you know who I am? Do you know who I am?” Oga calm down. We’ve checked all the videos and pictures from Dangote’s daughter’s wedding, we did not see you. So introduce yourself if you want me to know you

How do you handle traffic in Lagos?

christian king @chris24555

I’d like to think my superpower is patience. What else can you do? There are cars everywhere, in front and behind you. The traffic is slow, you’re stuck in your car. I’d rather cheer up, play some music, think about my next task or appointment.

Imagine attending Dangote’s daughter’s wedding that had both the richest man in Africa & the 2nd richest man in the world, but still leaving unemployed.

Where did you go for your latest vacation?

Where do you like to shop in Lagos? That’s a tough question! I have so many friends and clients having wonderful stores. I’d say the best is going on #AsoEbiBella, select a style or two, go to the market to buy some fabrics and take it all to the tailor to get it done. Interview by Paola Audrey in Abidjan

Edward, Domnan Anthony @Domnan_EA

PHILIP TRIMNELL/TIFFANY AMBER

I booked a trip eight months ago, but because BellaNaija had an event, I had to cancel it. It was so painful! With this being said, I’m in love with Africa so my next holidays will surely be on the continent. I’m thinking about visiting an island, maybe Zanzibar. I did a quick stop in Tanzania last year, and I was envious of the tourists who where continuing their trip to Zanzibar.

“Dangote’s daughter’s wedding” In all these, the husband has no name! his name is now Dangote’s daughter’s husband. Mr Stanley Nwabia @MrStanleyNwabi

I’m almost certain that Bill Gates was disgusted after attending Dangote’s daughter’s wedding. Here’s a country where he’s donated millions of Dollars on poverty alleviation & polio eradication, especially in the North~while a Billionaire Northerner is having lavish wedding party THE AFRICA REPORT

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TRAVEL DJIBOUTI

All about the ocean In the space of a weekend, there is plenty to do and see in the small Horn of Africa country that is a melting pot of flavours and cultures from around the region

he weekend begins early evening on a Thursday and ends on a Saturday night in Djibouti. A plethora of army bases setting up camp and new investments in infrastructure from Asia and the Middle East have put the spotlight on this country of less than a million citizens. Beneath the unassuming exterior, its blossoming tourism sector is a diamond in the dust. With its white sands, natural sites and lively nightlife Djibouti has the potential to emerge as a major tourist destination in the coming decades.

thursday 15:00 As workers leave their offices and young people stream out of the only university in the country, shisha rooms and bars fill up with those looking to get

the weekend off to an early start. At La Chaumière, on rue de Foucauld, cocktails cost between 2,000 and 3,000 Djiboutian francs ($11-$16). For food, grab chicken fillets, wings and burgers at Joe’s Wings, a small fast food joint on

Avenue 13 established by an American and his local partner in 2017.

18:00 Get on a boat at the old port of Djibouti for a 45-minute ride at sunset across the Gulf of Tadjoura to Village Les

Sables Blancs. The holiday village is situated between the sea and the mountains beside the port town of Tadjoura, which is the oldest settlement in the country. Boats charter up to six people and cost around 20,000 Djiboutian francs. There is a breathtaking view

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DIDIER RUEF/COSMOS

ART & LIFE 81

Eritrea

Lake Abbe

NIGEL PAVITT/GETTY IMAGES

40 km Obock Gulf Randa of Aden Tadjoura Lake Moucha Galaﬁ Assal Islands Djibouti Yoboki Ali Sabieh Somalia

21:00 Party hard on the beachfront under the stars and bask in the warmth till long after midnight.

5 of the ocean from the beachside restaurant, and you can go snorkelling, fishing or whale shark spotting. A mountain road snakes back into town. A stack of solar panels at one end of the resort keeps the place powered all day and all night long. THE AFRICA REPORT

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friday 9:00 Get going early to see the crystalline splendour of Lake Assal (1, 3), some 100km west of Djibouti city, or two hours by road. At 150m below sea level the lake is the lowest point in Africa and the third lowest in the world, after the Dead Sea and Sea of Galilee. It is a glorious spectacle of nature. Float in the saturated saltwater and pick some of the crystals on the shore as souvenirs. Nearby are hot springs with a greenish tint; friends and lovers can eat

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and recline at this breezy spot for a brief rest before heading back to Djibouti city. Or, if you want to combine the high with the low, carry on for another hour’s drive towards Tadjoura to visit Day Forest National Park (4). Surrounded by the Goda Mountains, this is the largest forest in the mainly semidesert country. Should luck be on your side, you might catch a glimpse of one of the few hundred remaining Djibouti francolin birds, a critically endangered species unique to the country.

18:00 Savour the last streaks of daylight on the rooftop of La Terrasse restaurant, aptly situated on rue d’Ethiopie. Here you can sample harira, a thick soup full of meat, tomatoes, lentils

21:00 If you’re looking to party into the night (5), dash into Club Menelik, the buzzing nightclub of the eponymous hotel in the central district. Even at midnight on a Monday, the dancefloor is full of people swinging to Nigerian and French pop hits.

Ethiopia

and spices, or injera, the popular Ethiopian flatbread. With all that coastline, fresh fish is abundant, and is delicious cooked Yemenstyle: halved and flamegrilled in a clay oven. Taste this delicacy from across the Gulf of Aden at one of the many Yemenite restaurants, such as Moukbasa National on Avenue 13.

saturday 9:00 Spend the morning playing (or watching) kids from Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen playing football along the banks of the Gulf of Aden. From noon you will also see almost the entire population chewing khat (2), which is delivered daily from Ethiopia. Or behold the myriad underwater species native to the Red Sea – without getting your feet wet – at the Aquarium Tropical de Djibouti in the old city centre, one of the most visited tourist sites in the Horn of Africa.

13:00 Indulge in a French affair by lunching at the upscale Café de la Gare, which serves its food fresh and in good time too. Or try La Mer Rouge, close to the airport – you may run into military personnel, dining as civilians for a seafood lunch. Eromo Egbejule in Djibouti

82 ART & LIFE

HOMAGE WINNIE MADIKIZELA-MANDELA 26 September 1936 – 2 April 2018 political heir, it is evident that there are many young people who have been inspired both by her courage and her militancy. In other words, Malema is not alone. It would be wrong to look only at the Economic Freedom Fighters to continue in her fiery tradition.

Fire and courage: Winnie Madikizela-Mandela at an anti-apartheid rally in 1986

GIDEON MENDEL/AFP

THE MOMENT TO ACT IS NOW

The heirs of defiance As South Africa enters a new era of governance, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela’s legacy is more relevant than ever if inequalities are finally to be addressed

ince her death on 2 April, Winnie Madikizela-Mandela has loomed larger than ever over the South African political landscape. Inthepastfewweeks,ashersupporters have leapt up to re-examine Truth and Reconciliation Commission archives and sort out the facts of her life from the fictions created by the apartheid intelligencecommunity,Madikizela-Mandela’s contribution to the struggle for liberation has necessarily been re-evaluated. It has become increasingly clear that in the late 1980s Madikizela-Mandela was surrounded by spies and informants. The decades of activism, trauma and banishment took their toll on the leader. Still, she was able to hold a hard line. The fear of Winnie Mandela and her supporters was a crucial factor that drove the National Party to the negotiating table. Part of Madikizela-Mandela’s allure, indeed a primary reason she became so iconic, was her ability to articulate rage. For a new generation of South Africans, her traits of courage and principled

defiance are clearly attractive. In part this is because there remain so many unresolved questions related to poverty and inequality. Despite the progress that was made in relation to the political dispensation, the majority of black South Africans live in poverty, and the gap between the haves and the have-nots has grown dramatically in recent years. Two decades ago many compromises were made to ensure a peaceful transition to democracy. In the process – and for reasons that were obvious at the time – voices that were pushing for stronger concessions on land were sidelined. The need for a political solution for a nation that seemed on the brink trumped considerations that might have had better socio-economic outcomes. Today it is evident that the time to reckon with the bitter economic legacies of apartheid is long overdue. The needle on inequality will be pushed by the bolder and younger student leaders and political activists. While many regard Julius Malema as Madikizela-Mandela’s

There is a new generation of community leaders who have been working on a range of issues, from health activism to service delivery blockages, and from local government accountability to urban evictions. Some of them are already adept at activism within the policy arena. Others are more sceptical of political machinations and have cut their teeth on the oppositional politics of student activism and service delivery protests. These are the real heirs of MadikizelaMandela’s legacy. It is interesting that MadikizelaMandela’s spirit is so present at this point in time, a time when Cyril Ramaphosa – the recently inaugurated president – is finally in power. Ramaphosa played a key role in negotiating the settlement that created the more peaceful but deeply divided society he now governs. In recent months, as the debate about land has taken on new fervour, Ramaphosa has been under pressure to toughen up his rhetoric. Seen as being cosy with business, Ramaphosa will have to convince an increasingly poor and restless population that he is working in their interests. As he readies himself to address the long-standing questions of inequality that have plagued South Africa since 1994 – including the land question – Ramaphosa will need to be mindful that Madikizela-Mandela’s legacy of defiance and intransigence in the face of social injustice is alive and well in South Africa. It was pure determination that kept Madikizela-Mandela’s flame burning through the long years of her husband’s imprisonment. A new generation of activists are ready to take up the mantle. What this means for South Africa’s future is a significant question for those who care about the direction of the country. Sisonke Msimang is the author of Always Another Country: a memoir of exile and home THE AFRICA REPORT

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