Texas Hunting Forecast for 2022-23

There should be plenty of nice eight-point bucks like this one across the state, based on landowners and hunters practicing better deer management techniques.

Hunters looking forward to another fall and winter are in store for another lineup of outstanding hunting seasons here in Texas. While Mother Nature always can play a fickle hand in determining just how good a deer, dove or duck framework truly was, the overall outlook across the board looks favorable for numerous species. That’s especially true in the traditional hotbeds that harbor game even in the worst of range conditions. Here’s a glimpse at what Lone Star state hunting holds for the coming months.

WHITE-TAILED DEER

Texas deer hunting is unrivaled, plain and simple, regardless if you’re hunting a small family tract behind the house or an intensive game-managed ranch. In fact, every year numerous monster bucks get killed on minute acreages and public lands that rival anything else across the state. Alan Cain, white-tailed deer program leader for the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, said there’s never been a better time to be a deer hunter anywhere in Texas.

“Overall, the trends have indicated an increasing deer population in the Pineywoods, Cross Timbers, Post Oak Savannah and Rolling Plains regions,” he said. “Populations continue to remain stable in South Texas and the Edwards Plateau, and I would predict the statewide deer population to be close to or slightly above the long-term average (roughly 5 million).”

The population estimates favor certain regions of the state, and for obvious reasons, those are the hunting hot spots, Cain noted. The Hill Country alone supports a whitetail population of more than 2 million animals, while the Cross Timbers region of Central Texas harbors more than a half-million deer in good years.

“If you want to increase your odds of harvesting a deer, I’d be looking to hunt the Hill Country,” Cain said. “I would encourage hunters to continue to fill their tags and reduce deer populations especially in drier areas of the state, including the Hill Country, where deer numbers are likely beyond what the habitat should be supporting. I also encourage hunters to harvest does each year. This not only keeps the population levels in check but helps to maintain a reasonable sex ratio.”

Noting the potential for subpar range conditions due to the often unpredictable nature of summer rains, Cain noted an interesting piece of information that could actually bode well in terms of headgear.

“I talk with ranchers across the state who have managed deer for a long time, and they’ll tell you that not in the real bad years, but the years it’s been a little drier—kind of like one of these—that they see antler quality go up,” he said. “It may be that it just forces the deer onto the feed and they’re simply seeing better antler size, but then I’ve also got other places that are just managing numbers and keeping habitat in shape, and they’re also growing good deer consistently year in and year out.” Cain said data compiled by biologists continues to show quality deer management has become a real thing across the state, no matter how large a tract is that’s being used for deer hunting.

White-winged dove hunting has become a statewide pursuit, as the birds have expanded their range out of the Rio Grande Valley. This September should again provide plenty of wingshooting opportunities.

“The majority of the harvest is composed of bucks that are 31/2 or 41/2 years, based on survey and antler data we collect,” Cain said. “That’s good for hunters and that means they’re not killing a bunch of young bucks. They’re letting them walk and it’s also in part to the antler restrictions we have in many counties. I also think a large part is most hunters and landowners taking an interest in deer management, which is a good thing.”

TPWD, as usual, is always looking to expand opportunities across the state for deer hunters, Cain said, and noted that there have never been more chances in more counties to take more deer by more methods.

Cain summed up another deer outlook this way: “Regardless of where you hunt in Texas, there’s always a good chance you’ll see a great quality buck each season. Enhancing habitat to make your hunting lease or ranch more attractive to deer is always helpful to entice that big buck to your blind and hopefully in your crosshairs.”

DOVES

Owen Fitzsimmons, TPWD’s dove program leader, said the Texas dove hunting outlook, as usual, should by sky-high. Even in years with lower production, the state still boasts exceptional numbers of birds—roughly 25 million mourning doves and 12 million whitewings, according to the long-term averages from spring surveys.

Depending on the moisture outlook, which again can prove fickle, there’s no reason to think the dove forecast won’t be a good one again this fall.

“We always seem to be dry through the summer and then have those rains and storms in early to midSeptember, which can push doves out of certain areas,” Fitzsimmons said. “However, if it’s still dry when the season starts, that can concentrate the birds in areas with dependable food and especially water sources.”

Fitzsimmons pointed to the special White-Winged Dove Area that encompasses the entire South Zone as a hot spot that has gained notoriety for a number of reasons. Again, this year will be back-to-back weekends of Friday-Saturday-Sunday hunting to kick off September dove frameworks.

“That season had been only two days previously on those weekends, but we worked with U.S. Fish and Wildlife to implement those new days to add more opportunities for many hunters who don’t live in the South Zone but come down to hunt every season,” Fitzsimmons said.

Overall, Texas still boasts the largest number of dove hunters annually, with roughly a third of the nationwide tally of about 1 million in an average year, according to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service figures. Those hunters bag millions of birds each fall and winter, while also pumping hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue into the state economy.

Fitzsimmons noted that dove hunting remains a relatively inexpensive outdoor pursuit, one that provides a great opportunity to introduce youngsters and novices to hunting pastimes.

He summed up another dove outlook this way: “I expect hunters may need to do a little more scouting this year, based on how September shapes up moisture-wise, but there will be ample opportunities in many places, per usual, to harvest good numbers of birds. That’s also especially true for many public and private locales near urban areas that always harbor lots of doves.”

The High Plains remains the prime spot for Canada goose hunting in Texas. The goose population has shifted in recent years to areas harboring consistent water such as ponds with local city limits. WATERFOWL

Kevin Kraai, TPWD’s waterfowl program leader, said it’s tough to prognosticate on a duck and goose season with certainty, namely due to changing range conditions that can simply turn from great to bad quickly. However, hunters can look back at a previous fall and winter for context to gauge an upcoming framework.

“Going into last season, we had a really wet and cooler June and July, and across the board, the state was looking really good,” Kraai said. “Then August hit and it got hot and dried up, and changed the landscape for the entire state overnight. High Plains playas and basins were gone, you had East Texas reservoirs start to recede quickly and even down in the Gulf Coast prairies and marshes things changed rapidly. “Long story short, December ended up being one of the driest and warmest months in the history of Texas. That translated into some of the lowest success rates we’ve seen. The one silver lining is that significant fronts in January brought in more birds and kind of saved the season for many hunters.

And when we did our mid-winter survey, we saw a roughly 50 percent increase in the waterfowl counts from the previous year, which was the lowest on record for us.”

Kraai noted that despite frustration experienced by hunters in traditional waterfowl hotbeds, there were some good takeaways from surveys.

“For dabbling ducks, we did see a couple of areas with more birds than we expected, with some of the highest counts we’d see recently,” he noted. “Those were the northern Rolling Plains and the South Texas brush country. The key element in those areas is the number of stock tanks and agricultural ponds that will typically hold steady water for livestock.”

In terms of geese, Kraai noted that recent estimates along the coast and other historically good hunting locales have been a fraction of what they typically have been. However, as with land management for other species, geese continue to frequent areas tailor-made for them.

“We’re seeing geese not stretched out across the landscape but concentrated in areas where people are taking good care of them,” Kraai said. “They’re providing more roost ponds and not harassing them as much so they’re just not going to be as readily available to hunters just driving down the road for them to see. They’re very smart and they’re flocking to areas where landowners are actively managing for them.”

Kraai summed up another waterfowl outlook this way: “Texas hunters always expect a good season, and rightfully so. One thing we have seen from new telemetry projects is just how much ducks and geese move. We’ve always viewed waterfowl as moving from north to south, but that’s not necessarily the case. They could very well move from the east or west or even from the south. Habitat and weather conditions are what drives them so staying flexible can be the biggest indicator of success.”

Notable hunting changes for 2022-23 seasons

Hunters will see some changes this fall to our Texas hunting frameworks. Among notable alterations approved by the TPW Commission are: • Establish mandatory buck and antlerless white-tailed deer harvest reporting in Collin, Dallas, Grayson and Rockwall counties during white-tailed deer season. • Modify the definitions of “buck deer” and “antlerless deer.”

• Modify the proof of sex requirements for harvested buck deer.

• Create definitions for two types of commercial cold storage facilities. • Modify tagging and proof of sex requirements, log procedures and destination regulations for commercial cold storage facilities. • Expand mule deer antler restrictions to an additional 21 counties in the Panhandle.

• Extend the general mule deer season in 15 southwestern Panhandle counties from nine to 16 days and add a special archery season. • Establish a mule deer antler restriction in Terrell County within the Trans-Pecos.

• Establish a veterans and active-duty special waterfowl hunting season to occur concurrently during youth-only season in all duck zones.

• Modify the West Zone for goose hunting to open a week earlier than current goose hunting regulations. • Remove the daily bag limit restriction (two) on hooded mergansers. • Combine the separate merganser and duck daily bag limits into a single aggregate daily bag limit of six per day. • Reauthorize the requirement to possess a Federal Sandhill Crane Hunting Permit while hunting that species due to an administrative error.

• Close the turkey season east of I-35 in Ellis County to support ongoing restocking efforts along the Trinity

River.

The waterfowl hunting landscape in Texas has changed in recent seasons due to habitat practices and drought. This winter should provide good hunting opportunities for those with access to areas managed specifically for ducks and geese.

STORY

The author’s wife, Brandi, with her very best trophy buck to date.

From the time I first met my wife Brandi, the daughter of a preacher, she has always insisted there are no mere coincidences in a person’s life. Every person you meet, every place you find yourself, and every situation you encounter has a purpose. And if needed, God will tap you on the shoulder to let you know. One special afternoon in December 2020 turned out to provide one of those blessings in the form of a once-in-a-lifetime, quality Texas whitetail.

A mutual friend introduced me to Mark, owner of the 406 Ranch. That friend told me about the possibility of hunting some truly amazing native Texas whitetails. At this stage of my life, I had been hunting for almost 20 years, but always on smaller acreage properties in the Texas Hill Country. I was a bit hesitant to explore the opportunity even considering the superior deer quality the South Texas brush country is known for.

After some discussion with Brandi, we decided to go forward and give it a shot. But we would make this opportunity for her to take her first deer ever. Brandi was very explicit in what she wanted. “I want a very old buck whose best years are behind him so I can give him a humane passing,” she said. Score was simply not that important to her.

We made our first trip down to the ranch later that season. After our arrival, we made some introductions with Mark, took a quick tour, and set up for an evening hunt. Mark and I sat together and visited as I anxiously waited to see what would step out that evening. Our quiet deer blind conversation consisted mostly of me asking him questions about feeds, supplements, herd management, and more.

As we whispered back and forth, Mark told me he had spent over 30 years meticulously managing his herd the old-fashioned way. “These are wild native deer,” he said, “never touched by a human. No artificial breeding, no pen raising. Just natural genetics with selective hunting and superior nutrition.”

Mark’s approach to growing and managing a deer herd is a tried, proven, and simple method. It means optimum nutrition, adequate water sources, plenty of undisturbed native brush, and most important, letting them grow. As any experienced hunter will tell you, “If you want to shoot a 6-year-old 170, then you’ve got to pass on a 5-year-old 150.”

As the sunlight began to fade, Mark continued to share a wealth of information with me about the ranches and hunting history in his area while we watched a few does and juvenile bucks moving until just before dark. Then we saw what we were looking for. My jaw probably dropped as we watched a 71⁄2-year-old mid 170s non-typical walk into the clearing. Unfortunately, he got a pass that day because Brandi was hunting in another blind, although she did ultimately end up taking him later that season with Mark and her father.

From that day on, we knew this was a special place and have been fortunate enough to go back many times, making memories and taking spectacular deer. That first buck stood out as the most memorable for many years, and for obvious reasons. But that may have finally been eclipsed this past season by one buck even more special.

Over the years we have taken many family members down to shoot a dream buck on the ranch. Brandi had taken three altogether going into last season. Each deer had met her criteria for being old or wounded, and all were fantastic quality bucks worthy to hang on any wall. But nothing could have prepared us for the latest one.

Having already taken a nice, clean eight-pointer earlier in bow season myself, we entered the rut looking for something big and were not completely set on who would get it. We made as many trips down to the ranch as we could, passing on a few nice deer while holding out for something we would not pass over. Eventually, one evening in early December, we decided to split up and whoever struck first would get THE deer this season. I elected to stick with archery equipment and got dropped off at a treestand at one end of the ranch where I had never hunted before. Brandi, as she usually does, chose to go with Mark towards the middle of the ranch. I almost detected a snicker from Mark as they drove off, although he would later deny any prior knowledge of what they would see. It was a windy afternoon, but nevertheless I saw a few bucks that most hunters—including myself—would have been happy to shoot on any other day. But I was after something different today.

Any day sitting in a tree with deer around you is a good way to pass the time. Of course, a little banter exchanged via silent text messages while hunting is a technological advancement we can all appreciate. The lack of replies from the other two members of our hunting party on the other side of the ranch led me to believe one of two things: either they were busy having a conversation because they haven’t seen anything, or they saw something that had their undivided attention. The latter proved true.

From the direction in the middle of the ranch, I thought I heard a shot. I texted Mark, “Did Brandi shoot?” He replied with a simple “yes.” I figured they might be looking for it, so I sat tight waiting to hear back. Minutes felt like hours before I heard a buggy coming down the trail. It was Mark. “Well did she get him?” I asked. “Oh, she got one,” he replied and then joked with me a little about owing him my truck, which was kind of an ongoing joke between us, while we drove towards where they were hunting.

Based on what we were hunting for, as well as the smile on Mark’s face, I suspected we were about to roll up on a very nice deer. But the expression I saw on Brandi’s face as she stood on the edge of the brush when we pulled in confirmed it. As I got out of the buggy, I ran up to give a very excited Brandi a congratulatory hug. “Babe, he’s huge! He’s so amazing! I can’t even believe we saw him!” she exclaimed.

“Well, where is he?” I asked. “Right there in the brush,” she said while pointing. I looked down the nearest game trail. At first glance, I thought I was looking at some beautifully sym-

metrical tree branches before realizing it was the business end of an absolute tank of a buck.

The buck had not run more than 30 yards before piling up right where he fell. “Whatcha think, dig-dog?” Mark chuckled from just behind me. I had no reply. I got down on my knees and put my hand on the buck to see if he was real and put my arm around my giddy wife as she told me all the details of her hunt.

“We watched him walk out and strut around for a bit in amazement,” Brandi said. After commenting to Mark about what an amazing deer it was, he smiled and asked, “Do you wanna take him?” She was overwhelmed and unsure. She had not expected him to say that.

“I don’t know. Are you serious? He’s so big.” she said. Mark replied he had never seen this particular deer before and there were no guarantees we ever would again, so Brandi might as well take him if she liked.

Still a little uncertain from the flood of excitement and buck fever, Brandi suggested they pray about it and then, God willing, she would take the shot. A short pre-shot prayer followed, as one always does in our family. When the buck turned broadside, Mark whispered his now trademark words of encouragement. “Sometimes God presents you with an opportunity and gives you a little tap on the shoulder.”

Just like that, Brandi put a spectacular shot on the buck.

Brandi’s buck smashed her previous best buck by almost 12 inches.

With 12 points and at 7 years old, the buck scored 1856⁄8 inches, smashing her previous best by almost 12 inches. I can honestly say this was one of those rare moments as a hunter when you’re more excited and happier for someone else to get the best deer of the season. While this buck was nowhere near the biggest deer ever taken on the ranch, not even the biggest of the season, I’m certain it will rank among one of Mark’s favorites as well. What a deer, what a wife, what a special place.