1.5. Climate change, social exclusion and poverty

across special interest groups as well as the low-income groups, the urban poor and informal sector. The aim is to minimise inequalities and improve access to jobs opportunities for optimum benefits to the community. Social exclusion makes it difficult to achieve social objectives, such as reducing poverty, due to often hidden barriers in reaching those who are socially marginalised. Exclusion also causes conflict, and it is almost impossible to achieve economic gains in conflict environments. Persons with Disability (PWDs) and Youth in Kathwana face challenges that are either caused by or lead to exclusion, and recommendations for their inclusion are fully integrated in the UEP. People who are excluded are not ‘just like’ the rest of the poor, only poorer. They are also disadvantaged by who they are or where they live, and as a result are locked out of the benefits of development. In addition to these principles, it is critical to ensure the UEP develops the competitiveness of the Municipality to promote and sustain economic growth.

Focus on the basics

› Health; › Basic education; and › Infrastructure. Research from the World Bank shows that statistically, for cities with low levels of industrialisation and productivity, good institutions, social infrastructure (such as education and health) and basic physical infrastructures are the key determinants for success.

Develop a coordinated and comprehensive growth strategy; Achieving competitiveness requires improvements on a range of very different aspects, and there is a risk that decisions are taken individually with little considerations for how they interact. Instead, decisions should be coordinated around overarching goals (e.g., transport strategy should reflect and respond to strategies relating to poverty, skills and employment) and they should also be comprehensive (e.g., sectoral strategies should examine and target every step of the supply chain, not just the sector itself). Utilise existing resources and comparative advantages; Successful cities should make the most of the assets and resources they already have, rather than trying to attract new types of industries that are not necessarily adapted. There is not a silver-bullet policy to improve competitiveness. Improve institutions and regulations; Poor institutions and high levels of corruption are likely to hinder firms’ development as these factors create uncertainty about public services delivery, efficiency and costs.

At the time of preparing this UEP the Covid-19 pandemic had taken the whole world by surprise disrupting societies and economies. The impacts (both health and economic) have been felt across different geographies and locally in Kathwana. While governments are trying to address current challenges, this pandemic has brought to the fore the need to understand better the nexus between vulnerable groups, livelihoods and shocks from critical events such as climate change, where vulnerabilities are enhanced in combination. Climate change is a serious risk to livelihoods and poverty reduction efforts, and it is imperative to understand exposure, vulnerabilities and build resilience into future projects through appropriate adaptation measures. Poor and marginalised groups are disproportionately affected by the impacts of climate change. Livelihoods, most often in the informal sector, that are reliant on being able to trade every day are more vulnerable to disruption, be it a pandemic, or an environmental disaster. Access to basic services including water availability and provision can be disrupted negatively affecting particularly poorer and excluded groups including posing a risk to food security. Limited access to credit and financial resources and reduced social safety nets critically reduce their ability to recover from disasters such as floods or droughts. Adaptation measures need to be appropriate to support income security and ensure the inclusion of marginalised groups, and not to reinforce and exacerbate existing inequality and vulnerabilities. Increasing resilience of current and future livelihoods and infrastructure is key to poverty reduction and has been addressed systematically throughout the UEP to avoid creating polarisation and further exclusion. The impact of climate change is felt hardest by the poor and marginalised groups, as limited access to credit and financial resources and social safety nets reduce the ability to recover from disasters such as floods or droughts. Approximately 80% of the county is reliant on agriculture as a livelihood, with agro-pastoral systems dominant in the hotter, drier lowlands around Kathwana. The vast majority of farmers are small-scale, and around 30% have no formal land title1. The high proportion of livelihoods reliant on variable rainfall means that poverty in the county is intrinsically linked with climate, and vulnerability to climate change is high. Livelihoods, most often in the informal sector, that are reliant on being able to trade every day are also more vulnerable to disruption, be it a pandemic, or a hydrometeorological disaster and need to be considered in the development of the UEP.

1.6 Covid 19 impacts and lessons

In Kenya, the impact of Covid-19 has been real and devastating. The pandemic has significantly impacted all aspects of life such as health, institutional revenues and livelihoods.

› COVID-19 has hit the most vulnerable the hardest, particularly the densely populated informal settlements and slums, as well as other people lacking access to adequate housing and basic services; › The informal economy employing about 70% of Kenyans has been drastically affected as lockdowns and curfews were introduced to curb the transmission of the virus. Low wage earners have been qually hit hard because they rely onthe informal sector and daily wages.

Often they lack the option to work from home as they are mostly in the service industries and more exposed to the virus. Despite the low wages, some have also received pay cuts, and some lost their jobs all together. There has been loss of revenue due to reduced activities in other sectors like industry, commerce and hospitality with the effects felt throughout their supply chains; › Travel restrictions have led to a sharp and substantial fall in demand for movement and subsequent impacts on supply chains; › Road freight and logistics have been interrupted as long-distance truck drivers are suspected to be a major source of imported infections and transmission.

This has had implications for trade and cross-border activities. Goods take longer to reach destinations. For perishable agricultural commodities, post-harvest loses become rampant; › Kenya is the world’s number 2 exporter of tea and world’s number 4 exporter in flower and both these critical industries have experienced a negative impact from COVID related restrictions. For instance, tea prices declined by 18% year-over-year in May, reaching the lowest point since 2014 and fresh cut flower sales declined by about 40% in March versus the previous month; › Disruptions in global supply chains have also led to shortages or delays for critical inputs for agriculture ultimately disrupting production and food supply and manufacturing, leading to price increases; › Increased awareness of hygiene signifies increased demand for limited resources like water as well as increased demand for disinfectant used hand cleaning and sanitisation with additional costs to society, particularly where access is not straightforward. Additionally, generated greywater from washing points can become public health/ environmental nuisance if appropriate infrastructure to handle or dispose such greywaters is not put in place immediately. The COVID 19 outbreak has affected people differently based on their age, gender, (dis) ability, sexual orientation, health status, migrant status, ethnicity among other aspects. Naturally, crises exacerbate existing gender inequalities, exclusion and discriminative practices, and the vulnerable groups are highly likely to be more adversely affected by the outbreak and the consequences of the response. Emerging evidence on the impact of COVID-19 suggests that women’s economic and productive lives has been affected disproportionately in comparison to men. This is because women earn less, save less, and are more likely to be employed in the informal sector. Their capacity to absorb economic shocks is therefore less than that of men.

Women are also the majority of frontline health workforce and caregivers and therefore at higher risk. Cultural factors may restrict women’s access to information and services, and some women may be particularly affected e.g. older women living alone, and isolation may lead to an increased risk of violence in the home.

Young people are already among the most affected by the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19. In addition to loosing employment, closure of businesses, and keeping away from schools and universities, the youth are also at high risk of increased anxiety and mental health problems. Additionally, the youth make up more than 30% of the migrants and refugees’ population who are likely disproportionately affected due to limited movement and fewer employment opportunities occasioned by the pandemic. Young women and girls are also at high risk of many forms of domestic and genderbased violence during the pandemic. Persons with disability have been left without vital support and advocacy due to social distancing. Majority of PWDs in SUED Municipalities operate small businesses in market centres, which have been adversely affected therefore experience livelihood loss. For PWDs that rely on their hands for walking and are sole bread winners, the question of not touching surfaces is not applicable and they therefore are at high risk of being infected with COVID-19. Street Families are highly exposed to the danger of the virus because they lack shelter. Many of them rely on market centres where they ferry goods for a wage, and with the closure of markets they lost livelihoods. It will be important to draw lessons from the current crisis to inform long term planning and ensure resilience is embedded in the proposed projects under this UEP. This is an opportunity to get insights into a future fully fledged climate change crisis and Municipalities have a critical role to play in addressing these challenges. Some initial key lessons include: › Emphasising the need for adaptive, urban integrated plans to ensure sustainable urban development and infrastructure provision including