Type:
Solution Manual
Resource:
Business Forecasting
Edition:
9th Edition
Author(s):
John Hanke Dean Wichern
CONTENTS
Preface Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
Chapter 5
Chapter 6
A Review of Basic Statistical Concepts Problems Cases: Alcam Electronics Mr. Tux Alomega Food Stores
1
Exploring Data Patterns and Choosing a Forecasting Technique Problems Cases: Murphy Brothers Furniture Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling Alomega Food Stores Surtido Cookies
9
Moving Averages and Smoothing Methods Problems Cases: The Solar Alternative Company Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling Murphy Brothers Furniture Five-year Revenue Projection for Downtown Radiology Web Retailer Southwest Medical Center Surtido Cookies
25
Time Series And Their Components Problems Cases: The Small Engine Doctor Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling Murphy Brothers Furniture AAA Washington Alomega Food Stores Surtido Cookies Southwest Medical Center Regression Analysis
56
1 8 8 8
9 20 20 21 23 23
25 43 45 46 47 49 49 52 54
56 76 79 80 83 84 87 88 90 94
Problems Cases: Tiger Transport Company Butcher Products, Inc. Ace Manufacturing Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling AAA Washington Chapter 7
Chapter 8
Chapter 9
Chapter 10
94 113 113 114 114 115 117
Multiple Regression Problems Cases: The Bond Market AAA Washington Fantasy Baseball (A) Fantasy Baseball (B)
120
Regression With Time Series Data Problems Cases: Business Activity Index for Spokane County Restaurant Sales Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling AAA Washington Alomega Food Stores Surtido Cookies Southwest Medical Center
146
Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) Methodology Problems Cases: Restaurant Sales Mr. Tux Consumer Credit Counseling The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company City of College Station UPS Air Finance Division AAA Washington Web Retailer Surtido Cookies Southwest Medical Center
173
Judgmental Elements in Forecasting Problems
223
120 140 141 143 145
146 164 165 165 166 168 169 169 171
173 202 203 205 207 209 210 212 213 215 218
223
Cases: Golden Gardens Restaurant Alomega Food Stores The Lydia E. Pinkham Medicine Company Chapter 11
Managing the Forecasting Process Problems Cases: Boundary Electronics Busby Associates Consumer Credit Counseling Mr. Tux Alomega Food Stores Southwest Medical Center
224 224 225 226 226 226 227 228 228 228 229
CHAPTER 2 A REVIEW OF BASIC STATISTICAL CONCEPTS ANSWERS TO PROBLEMS AND CASES 1.
2.
Descriptive Statistics Variable Orders
N 28
Mean Median StDev SE Mean 21.32 17.00 13.37 2.53
Variable Orders
Min 5.00
Max 54.00
Q1 Q3 11.25 28.75
a.
X = 21.32
b.
S = 13.37
c.
S = 178.76
d.
If the policy is successful, smaller orders will be eliminated and the mean will increase.
e.
If the change causes all customers to consolidate a number of small orders into large orders, the standard deviation will probably decrease. Otherwise, it is very difficult to tell how the standard deviation will be affected.
f.
The best forecast over the long-term is the mean of 21.32.
2
Descriptive Statistics Variable Prices
N Mean Median StDev SE Mean 12 176654 180000 39440 11385
Variable Min Max Q1 Q3 Prices 121450 253000 138325 205625
X = 176,654 and 3.
S = 39,440
a.
Point estimate: X = 10.76%
b.
1− = .95 Z = 1.96, n = 30, X = 10 .76 , S = 13 .71
(
)
(
)
X 1.96 S / n = 10.76 1.96 13.71/ 30 = 10.76 4.91 (5.85%, 15.67%)
c.
df = 30−1 = 29, t = 2.045 1