TasCOSS
“No-one left behind” Building better support systems in post-Covid Tasmania Bernard Salt AM 3 November 2021
Australians spend their wealth on housing and lifestyle
1. United States 20,933
2. China 14,723
3. Japan 5,049
4. Germany 3,803
5. United Kingdom 2,711
6. India 2,709
7. France 2,599
8. Italy 1,885
9. Canada 1,643
10. South Korea 1,631
11. Russia 1,474
12. Brazil 1,434
13. Australia 1,359
14. Spain 1,278
15. Mexico 1,076
(-2%)
(-4%)
(-2%)
(+3%)
(-6%)
(-8%)
(-2%)
(-6%)
(-15%)
(-2%)
(-1%)
(-4%)
(-13%)
(-6%)
(-24%)
Top 15 countries by GDP 2020 (in USD bn) & percentage change 2019-2020 Source: IMF; The Demographics Group
The pandemic has disrupted access to skilled & seasonal labour 1900
1920
350,000
1940
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000
ANZACs depart
1980
2000
2020 Big Australia Covid-19 peak pandemic
ANZACs return
300,000
1960
Great Depression
US soldiers returning home
50,000 -50,000
-150,000
1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
-100,000
Historical net overseas migration in Australia from 1901 to 2019 and budget forecasts to 2024 Source: ABS 3105, 3101 and 3222; Australian Federal Budget 2021; The Demographics Group
Tasmania has been “on the up” for much of the 21st century delivering opportunity for many… however we must also ensure that noone is left behind
King Island
Flinders Burnie Central Coast West Tamar Devonport Latrobe
George Town Dorset
Circular Head WaratahWynyard
Launceston
Break O’Day Northern Midlands
West Coast
Central Highlands
Southern Midlands
GlamorganSpring Bay Sorell
Derwent Valley
Tasman
Areas of population growth and loss between 2000 and 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Huon Valley
Clarence Brighton Glenorchy Kingborough
Pop 2000:
473,000
Pop 2020:
541,000
Growth:
68,000
Rising and falling population, labour pools and client bases LGA Gains 1. Sorell (M)
2020
Net % change change 2010-2020 2010-2020
LGA Losses
2020
Net % change change 2010-2020 2010-2020
16,000
2,860
22%
1. West Coast (M)
4,100
-930
-18%
2. Flinders (M)
1,000
170
20%
2. Central Highlands (M)
2,200
-190
-8%
3. Latrobe (M)
12,000
1,900
19%
3. Dorset (M)
6,700
-490
-7%
4. Brighton (M)
18,100
2,560
16%
4. Waratah/Wynyard (M)
13,900
-410
-3%
5. Huon Valley (M)
18,000
2,290
15%
5. King Island (M)
1,600
-40
-3%
6. Kingborough (M)
38,600
4,500
13%
6. Circular Head (M)
8,200
-220
-3%
7. Clarence (C)
58,700
6,330
12%
7. Burnie (C)
19,700
-370
-2%
8. Hobart (C)
55,300
4,960
10%
8. Break O'Day (M)
6,300
-100
-2%
9. West Tamar (M)
24,400
1,780
8%
9. Central Coast (M)
22,200
-130
-1%
10. Northern Midlands (M)
13,600
920
7%
10. Devonport (C)
25,700
40
0%
Tasmania
540,800
31,930
6%
Population of Tasmania’s Local Government Areas at 2020 and change between 2010 and 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Big migration losses ended 20 years ago so let’s focus on the future 2010
2000
1990 6,000 5,000
Peak of the (mainland's) resources boom
Average annual net migration
4,000
2020
3,000 2,000 1,000
Post recession outflow
-1,000 -2,000 -3,000
2020/21
2019/20
2018/19
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1983/84
1982/83
-5,000
1981/82
-4,000
1984/85
Peak outflow from Tasmania 24 years ago
Net migration (interstate & overseas) Tasmania 1981 – 2021 (two quarters worth of data for FY 2020/21) Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
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The Tasmanian workplace relies on foreign skills and labour Greater Hobart
Australia
62%
Workforce Growth 2011-16
74%
Workforce Growth 2011-16
1.
Australia
840
1.
Australia
159,000
2.
China
300
2.
India
101,000
3.
India
280
3.
China
72,000
4.
Nepal
180
4.
Philippines
37,000
5.
Philippines
90
5.
Nepal
22,000
6.
Pakistan
80
6.
South Korea
19,000
7.
Bhutan*
80
7.
New Zealand
18,000
8.
Thailand*
80
8.
Vietnam
17,000
9.
USA*
70
9.
Pakistan
16,000
10. Taiwan*
60
10. South Africa
15,000
Total Hobart
2,100
Total Australia
625,000
* denotes country not in national top 10… percentage denote proportion net new workers born overseas
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
Tasmania is especially challenged by ageing issues 10
9.0% 8.0%
20
30
40
50
Tas (and AU) must focus on skills development
Less focus on kids
60
70
80
TAS Pop 2020: 541,000
Greatest focus on ageing
7.0%
90
ACT Pop 2020: 431,000
Pressure on frail elderly care
6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0%
Australian Capital Territory
100+
95-99
90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
0.0%
Tasmania
Proportion of population by 5-year age group Tasmania & ACT, June 2020 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
The healthcare and social services workforce is expanding
Occupation
Net change Aug 2021 Feb 20Aug 21
1. Welfare Support Workers
68,900
2. Aged and Disabled Carers
224,200
3. Audiologists, Speech Pathologists\ Therapists 4. Registered Nurses
7,900 298,000
Occupation
Aug 2021
Net change Feb 20Aug 21
30,100 10. Health and Welfare Services Managers
34,300
-600
20,100 11. Occupational Therapists
24,900
-800
7,600 12. Social Workers
35,300
-1,000
7,400 13. Social Professionals
12,800
-2,200
5. Physiotherapists
30,100
7,400 14. Welfare, Rec. & Community Arts Workers
31,500
-3,500
6. Nurse Managers
19,000
2,900 15. Gen.Practitioners & Resident Medical Officers
62,900
-3,900
7. Nurse Educators and Researchers
9,300
2,600 16. Nursing Support & Personal Care Workers
101,700
-5,000
8. Special Care Workers
3,700
2,400 17. Counsellors
29,600
-6,100
9. Indigenous Health Workers
2,200
24,100
-8,900
1,020,400
48,500
0 18. Massage Therapists Total “TasCOSS labour pool” Australian workforce total
12,956,200 -97,100
Occupations in typical TasCOSS labour pool at August 2021 incl change February 2020 and August 2021 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
The aged or disabled carer workforce is itself ageing
Peak carer in 50’s 25,000
20,000
We need even more 20-somethings
We need to grow the 40something workforce
2011: 2016: Change:
108,200 132,300 24,100
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
Age profile of Aged or Disabled Carers at the 2016 Census and change between 2011 and 2016 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
0 Jan-1990 Jun-1990 Nov-1990 Apr-1991 Sep-1991 Feb-1992 Jul-1992 Dec-1992 May-1993 Oct-1993 Mar-1994 Aug-1994 Jan-1995 Jun-1995 Nov-1995 Apr-1996 Sep-1996 Feb-1997 Jul-1997 Dec-1997 May-1998 Oct-1998 Mar-1999 Aug-1999 Jan-2000 Jun-2000 Nov-2000 Apr-2001 Sep-2001 Feb-2002 Jul-2002 Dec-2002 May-2003 Oct-2003 Mar-2004 Aug-2004 Jan-2005 Jun-2005 Nov-2005 Apr-2006 Sep-2006 Feb-2007 Jul-2007 Dec-2007 May-2008 Oct-2008 Mar-2009 Aug-2009 Jan-2010 Jun-2010 Nov-2010 Apr-2011 Sep-2011 Feb-2012 Jul-2012 Dec-2012 May-2013 Oct-2013 Mar-2014 Aug-2014 Jan-2015 Jun-2015 Nov-2015 Apr-2016 Sep-2016 Feb-2017 Jul-2017 Dec-2017 May-2018 Oct-2018 Mar-2019 Aug-2019 Jan-2020 Jun-2020 Nov-2020 Apr-2021 Sep-2021
Unemployment rate (%)
Tasmania unemployment at record low creates shallow labour pool 1995 2000 2005
10
8
Tasmania Unemployment Rate % (Seasonally Adjusted)
2010
Pre-GFC low 3.9%
2015 2020
Recession high 13.3%
14
12
Pandemic low 4.6%
Pandemic high 7.9%
6
4
2
Poly. (Australia Unemployment Rate %)
Unemployment rate of Tasmania (seasonally adjusted) from January 1990 to September 2021 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
The lifecycle is changing creating new care segments
Child
Adult
Adolescence
Lifestyle
Retired
Old
2021
84
Child
Teen
Adult
Old
1981
74
Child
Adult
Old
1941
63
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia SLIDE #
Source: various Source: sources; The Demographics United Nations - World Population Group Prospects
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Traditional belief systems gather momentum later in life 100%
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
90% 80%
Belief
70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Volunteers
20%
Carers
10% 0%
1
4
7
Disabled
10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100 Volunteers
Religious belief
Carers
Disabled
Social indicators across the Australian lifecycle by single year of age, 2016 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
The social patchwork of Tasmania’s communities Provided Unpaid Care
Volunteers
Need for Assistance in Core Activity
15%
Ravenswood
33%
Mount Nelson
19%
Shorewell Park
15%
Rosetta
33%
Taroona
15%
Warrane
15%
Risdon Vale
33%
South Hobart
11%
Glenorchy
15%
Bridgewater
32%
Mount Stuart
11%
St Helens
15%
George Town
31%
West Hobart
11%
West Ulverstone
15%
Taroona
30%
Deloraine
11%
Sorell
15%
Bellerive
30%
Scottsdale
10%
Bridgewater
15%
St Helens
30%
Park Grove
10%
Lindisfarne
14%
Lauderdale
29%
Trevallyn
10%
East Devonport
8%
Hobart
11%
Bridgewater
3%
East Launceston
12%
Australian Average
21%
Australian Average
6%
Australian Average
Per cent comparison of selected social indicators by suburb in Tasmania at the 2016 Census Excludes suburbs with population less than 2,000
Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; The Demographics Group
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0 Jun-1971 Feb-1972 Oct-1972 Jun-1973 Feb-1974 Oct-1974 Jun-1975 Feb-1976 Oct-1976 Jun-1977 Feb-1978 Oct-1978 Jun-1979 Feb-1980 Oct-1980 Jun-1981 Feb-1982 Oct-1982 Jun-1983 Feb-1984 Oct-1984 Jun-1985 Feb-1986 Oct-1986 Jun-1987 Feb-1988 Oct-1988 Jun-1989 Feb-1990 Oct-1990 Jun-1991 Feb-1992 Oct-1992 Jun-1993 Feb-1994 Oct-1994 Jun-1995 Feb-1996 Oct-1996 Jun-1997 Feb-1998 Oct-1998 Jun-1999 Feb-2000 Oct-2000 Jun-2001 Feb-2002 Oct-2002 Jun-2003 Feb-2004 Oct-2004 Jun-2005 Feb-2006 Oct-2006 Jun-2007 Feb-2008 Oct-2008 Jun-2009 Feb-2010 Oct-2010 Jun-2011 Feb-2012 Oct-2012 Jun-2013 Feb-2014 Oct-2014 Jun-2015 Feb-2016 Oct-2016 Jun-2017 Feb-2018 Oct-2018 Jun-2019 Feb-2020 Oct-2020 Jun-2021
The long boom created a culture of (outrageous) expectation
1970s
-2.0
Whitlam
1980s
Fraser
1990s
Hawke
2000s 2010s
% change
6.0
GST GFC
2020s Jun 2021 +0.7%
4.0
2.0
0.0
COVID-19
June 2020 -7%
Per cent change in Australia’s gross domestic product quarter-to-quarter growth rate (constant prices) from 1971 to 2021 Source: ABS Australian National Accounts (released June 2021), The Demographics Group
WFH has increased the “dwell time” in the home
Before
Lockdown
Post Covid
WFH
Source: Visualised by The Demographics Group
Work, study, shop--and access care services--from home
Water Tanks
1950s Store
Today
Zoom Room Veggie Patch
Gym Store
Source: House plans created by Sawmill Designs
Full camera
I stopped eating smashed avocado … and now I own a castle
Opportunities for the TasCOSS community in the 2020s 1. Invest in Volunteers
2. Support Care Culture
3. Develop ‘Life’ Skills
4. Create Tech Connections
5. Build Business Capacity
6. Support Disability Community
Source: The Demographics Group
www.tdgp.com.au
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