The Housing Equation Supply, Demand & Affordability in the Tampa Bay Region Executive Summary
August January, 2025 2026
This research was made possible with support from JPMorganChase.
Executive Summary Rising housing costs, lagging housing development, and affordable housing deficits have contributed to the present housing affordability challenges in the Tampa Bay Tri-County Region. The Tampa Bay Tri-County Region (the “Region”) was home to approximately 3 million residents and 1.2 million households in 2023. Over the last few PASCO COUNTY 588,800 Residents decades, the Region has seen both a substantial growth in its population and workforce. However, inRents recentin years, household the regional Tri-County Regiongrowth have has increased substantially over the past decade PINELLAS outpaced the production of new housing units.
DRAFT
RENTAL HOUSING SNAPSHOT
COUNTY
In 2022, there were approximately 410,000 rental units in the Between 2018 and 2023, the Region added 99,675 Tri-County Region, a nearly 35,000 net unit increase from households, while producing only 82,000 housing 2012.
units. Similarly, regional wage growth has not kept with Fromrising 2012 to 2022, thecosts. number of units renting $1,200 or up housing From 2018 tofor 2023, less declined by nearly 82,000, while the number of units median rent for new leases increased by 48% renting for more than $1,200 grew by nearly 117,000. The shift while median hourly wage only increased by 29%.
COUNTY TRI-COUNTY REGION UNITS BY RENTS ±$1,200 [1] 1,489,600 Residents
400,000 MORE THAN $1,200
300,000
already constrained housing market. As RegionRegion’s are cost-burdened In 2022, the median rent for new leases in all three counties
of 2023, a third of all households in the Region increased significantly compared to prior years. Median rent (408,300 households) were cost-burdened, or REGION OWNER HOUSEHOLDS for TRI-COUNTY new leases increased by 32% in Hillsborough County, 30% spending over 30% of their household income on in Pinellas County, and 27% in Pasco County. Median rents 24% housing costs. Low-income households, renter declined slightly in subsequent years but remained Ownermore Households households and Black households were likely significantly higher than above pre-2022 prices. Cost-Burdened to be cost-burdened.
ion
MORE THAN $1,200
200,000 100,000Google Earth Source:
$1,200 OR LESS
$1,200 OR LESS
0
from less expensive to more expensive units stems from several causes, including rent increases in lower-cost units, DRAFT These trends have of fueled thehigher Region’s new construction units with rents,housing and demolition of affordability crisis, increasing pressure on the older housing units.
EHOLDS
HILLSBOROUGH
960,600 Residents
2012
2022
[1]
TRI-COUNTY REGION TRI-COUNTY REGION MEDIAN RENT RENT FOR LEASES MEDIAN FORNEW NEW LEASES [2]
$1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000
$800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2017
2018
2019
2020
Hillsborough
2021 Pinellas
2022
2023
2024
Pasco
DRAFT
[1] Units placed in rent categories based on $1,200 threshold in 2022 dollars. The threshold in the 2012 portion of the graph $941 in nominal dollars based on theleases Consumer Priceby Index for urban consumers (CPI-U). [1] isEstimated median rent for new signed renters in January of each year. [2] Estimated median rent for new leases signed by renters in January of each year. Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of ACS PUMS 2018-2022 & rent estimates from Source: SB Friedman, Shimberg Center tabulation of ACS PUMS 2018-2022 and rent estimates from Apartment List
11% COST-BURDENED HOUSEHOLDS SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC
Owner Households Severely Cost-Burdened
apartment list
29
A third of all households in the Tri-County Region are cost-burdened
TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED RENTER HOUSEHOLDS TRI-COUNTY REGION RENTER HOUSEHOLDS An increasingly constrained housing market and a limited
number of protected affordable units in the Tri-County Region result in a high share of cost-burdened households.
52%
Renter Households Cost-burdened households are defined as those spending over Cost-Burdened
30% of household income on housing costs. Severely cost-burdened households are defined as those spending over 50% of household income on housing costs.
Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman
Renter Households Cost-Burdened Nearly a quarter of owner households in theSeverely Tri-County
Region are cost-burdened.
26%
TRI-COUNTY REGION COST-BURDENED OWNER HOUSEHOLDS TRI-COUNTY REGION OWNER HOUSEHOLDS
24%
Owner Households Cost-Burdened
11%
Owner Households Severely Cost-Burdened
Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment | Executive Summary Over half of renter households in the Tri-County Region are TRI-COUNTY REGION RENTER HOUSEHOLDS 39
2
Lower-income households have limited housing options throughout the Region and often must spend more than 30% to stay within the Region. Meanwhile, many more affluent households occupy housing that would be affordable to households at lower income levels, which further constrains the market for affordable units.
Owner Households Earning Less than 80% of the AMI
Based on the existing population, the region does not have enough homes that would be considered affordable for owners earning 80% of AMI ($69,500 for a household of four). Nearly 80,650 units would need to be created to fill the gap for these potential owners.
69,360
80,650 Current Deficit
Current Deficit
Rental units for households earning less than 60% of AMI ($52,150 for a household of four) are also in a deficit. Nearly 70,000 rental units are needed to fill existing gaps for renters in the Region.
Renter Households Earning Less than 60% of the AMI
The availability of housing that is affordable to the workforce at a variety of income levels is a key component to continue attracting target industries and supporting the Region’s economy. Housing affordability is important to continue attracting target industries and retaining the roughly 1.5 million jobs in the Region today. Many people who work lower-wage jobs in the Region cannot currently afford to live in the Region or near their place of work. Throughout the Region, there is a need for more housing at nearly all income levels.
median income may still include many lower-wage jobs. Without the availability of affordable housing, employees may have to live elsewhere in the region, increasing commute times. In some cases, businesses may choose to locate elsewhere to be closer to their desired workforce. Therefore, providing affordable housing for workers across a range of income levels is essential to DRAFT attract target industries and strengthen the Region’s economy.
Wages within a given industry can range widely and often span across different income levels. Even Average Income for Sample Jobs the area industries with an average wage above
AREA MEDIAN INCOME
[1]
SAMPLE JOBS BY AREA MEDIAN INCOME 0-30% AMI FOUR PERSON HOUSEHOLD INCOME MAXIMUM
AVERAGE INCOME FOR SAMPLE JOBS (ONE PERSON)
30-60% AMI
$30,000
60-80% AMI
$52,150
$40,520
$29,830
Waiters & Waitresses
$69,500
$64,270
School Bus Drivers
80-100% AMI
Paralegals & Legal Assistants
$56,090
Firefighters
100-120% AMI
$89,400
$82,320
Real Estate Sales Agents
$104,280
$104,310
Registered Nurses
$76,150
>120% AMI
Electrical Engineers
$95,210
Web Developers
[1] Wages are shown as the average annual salary across the Tampa MSA by occupation. Some jobs may exist with lower wages, or workers may work part-time. Source: BLS OEWS (May 2023), Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, SB Friedman, Lightcast
Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment | Executive Summary [1] Wages are shown as the average annual salary across the Tampa MSA by occupation. Some jobs may exist with lower wages, or workers may work part-time. Source: BLS OEWS (May 2023), Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse, SB Friedman
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Significant investments in affordable housing development will be necessary to fill existing deficits in affordable units as well as meet projected future housing demand. As a region grows, new housing must be built to accommodate more people. To keep up with projected household growth and changing demographic trends, the Region needs to add ±254,700 new housing units between 2024 and 2035, an average of ±21,225 units per year. This includes ±10,685 single family units per year and ±10,540 multifamily units per year. To meet anticipated new demand, the Tri-County Region needs to increase its rate of production for multifamily housing. Approximately 25% of net new units will be needed for households earning below 60% AMI, 32% for households earning 60-120% AMI and 43% for households earning above 120% AMI. The Region’s recent market housing production has been heavily weighted to higher price points. Housing supply increases for higher income households relieves pressure on more modest price housing. Deliberate efforts need to continue to be made by counties, municipalities, and partners to increase the supply of new housing production for low- and moderate-income households.
The Evolution of Housing While single-family homes will continue to make up a large part of new housing supply throughout the Region, this housing typology is projected to gradually take a smaller share of the demand for new units. Production of new homes in the Region should reflect evolving household composition and preferences:
• More attached housing and smaller singlefamily homes with entry-level pricing accessible to new homebuyers
• Alternative housing for baby boomers and seniors seeking to downsize and age in place
[1]
• Housing to accommodate growth in
multigenerational households and desire While there are 22 affordable housing development for rental single-family homes projects in the Region with site control and in DRAFT predevelopment, approximately $273 million in gap funding is needed to build the 2,488 affordable proposed. However, gap funding Half of theunits projected housing demand in the Tri-County Region is for multifamily units is scarce, and that lack of certainty can delay projects from breaking ground. Unless new resources are [1] TRI-COUNTY REGION Hillsborough County accounts for 57% of the projected TriTRI-COUNTY REGION raised, projects in the affordable pipeline will face PROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND, 2024-2035 County Region housing demand between 2024 and 2035 PROJECTED HOUSING DEMAND, 2024-2035 significant delays and could be abandoned for (144,800 units). Multifamily housing accounts for just under 160,000 market rate of deals. half (48%) the housing demand in the county, which will
HOUSING DEMAND BY HOUSING TYPE
140,000
need to focus denser housing in more urban areas to accommodate projected housing demand.
120,000
Pinellas County accounts for 16% of regional housing demand (41,800 units). In contrast to Hillsborough and Pasco Counties, only a quarter of the projected housing unit demand in Pinellas County is for attached or detached single-family units. Pinellas County has less greenfield land available and needs to consider redevelopment and increasing density to accommodate projected housing demand. There is a roughly 68,100-unit demand projected for Pasco County, over half of which is for single-family detached units. Pasco County has greater availability of greenfield sites for subdivision development than other counties in the Region.
69,800
100,000 80,000
14,200
60,000
25,500
40,000
31,200
35,600
3,200 7,400
0 Hillsborough Single-Family Detached
Pinellas Single-Family Attached
Pasco Multifamily
[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman
[1] Our housing demand model relies on ACS and PUMS data as a baseline. As the most recent data is from 2023, our demand projections start in 2024. Source: ACS PUMS 2019-2023, SB Friedman
SB Friedman Development Advisors, LLC
7,000
60,800
20,000
Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment | Executive Summary
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Municipalities, nonprofits and private-sector partners throughout the Tri-County Region could benefit from taking a regional approach to addressing housing challenges and fostering economic development. Housing markets are regional in nature and do not respect jurisdictional boundaries. Through a collaborative regional approach, individual actors can pool resources and expertise, while also ensuring that they work together—rather than against each other—on affordability, preservation and other housing issues. As a regional entity that works with public, nonprofit and private-sector partners, the Tampa Bay Partnership can unite different voices and foster a regional approach to preserving and developing affordable housing in the Region through actions such as:
•
•
•
Convening a regular housing coalition consisting of public sector, business and nonprofit stakeholders.
REGIONAL HOUSING ACTION PLAN COMPONENTS CORE VALUES Anchors the vision and underpins the housing priorities and ultimately strategies
HOUSING PRIORITIES Overarching goals for implementation
Specific initiatives associated with each priority
Concrete near-term steps to achieve strategies
Developing a regional media strategy to build support for affordable housing and identify resources available to carry out this work.
Based on the core values and reflects the values for achieving future housing goals
STRATEGIES
ACTION ITEMS
Leading the creation of a regional strategic action plan focused on housing with support from other housing coalition members.
VISION STATEMENT
PARTNERS Key entities who lead or support each action item
METRICS Help partners measure progress and success of strategies
Different sectors all have a crucial role to play in furthering housing affordability PUBLIC SECTOR
EMPLOYERS
NONPROFITS
Set policies and regulations, including zoning, that can create an environment to encourage housing development or preservation
Bring capital, expertise, and innovation to help build housing more efficiently
Help fill gaps in the provision of services and inform effective program design
Pioneer innovative ways to finance affordable housing projects
Advocate for housing projects and programs at local and regional levels
Drive advancements in design and construction to reduce costs while maintaining building quality
Help engage communities and communicate housing needs to other players
Establish programs (e.g., downpayment assistance) to support housing needs Provide funding for affordable housing development and rehab of existing housing stock
Tampa Bay Regional Housing Needs Assessment | Executive Summary
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