/// NAVIGATING HIGH INFLATION AT THE REICHMAN UNIVERSITY FINANCIAL ECONOMICS FORUM

Dr. David Woo, Photo: Oren Shalev

In early January, the Master’s Program in Financial Economics – a joint initiative of the Tiomkin School of Economics and the Arison School of Business at Reichman University – held its annual financial forum. This year’s event, “Navigating High Inflation”, focused on the four-decade inflation high experienced this past year, the response of central banks, and its impact on markets. Speakers included: Prof. Rafi Melnick, President of Reichman University; Prof. Nouriel Roubini of the NYU Stern School of Business; Prof. Leo Leiderman, Chief Economic Advisor at Bank Hapoalim; and Dr. David Woo, Former Head of Global Rates, Foreign Exchange, and Emerging Markets Fixed Income and Economics Research at Bank of America.

Speakers were skeptical about the ability of central banks to tame inflation without dragging the economy into a recession, given the delayed response to rapidly rising prices and swift return to full employment. They discussed a future of persistently higher inflation than that we have grown accustomed to, of geo-political fragmentation replacing globalization, and the need for improved interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. Rates are likely to rise further for “normalization” of a prolonged period of suppressed rates and inflated asset prices. Prof. Roubini, known as “Dr. Doom” for his projection of the 2008 global crisis, foresees, “A recession for most of 2023 in the US, the Euro bloc, Britain, and most of the advanced economies.” In his outlook, the economic environment that has prevailed for decades of low inflation, stable growth and moderate crises, will soon be replaced by a period of stagflation and instability – financial, political, and environmental.

From left: Dr. Yael Eisenthal-Berkovitz, Mr. Doron Breen, Ms. Anath Levin, Mr. Avi Tiomkin, and Mr. Ori Greenfeld

Oren Shalev

The event also hosted a heated panel discussion between Mr. Avi Tiomkin, advisor to global hedge funds, Ms. Anath Levin, Head of BlackRock Israel, Mr. Doron Breen, Co-founder of Sphera Funds and Mr. Ori Greenfeld, Chief Strategist at Psagot. The panelists exchanged views on future trends in energy prices and implications on inflation, analyzing the delicate situation in Europe, in particular, given the projected gas shortage and potential asymmetric effect of rate hikes across Euro bloc countries. The panel also discussed investment strategy given rising correlations across asset classes and the prevailing uncertainty around the pace and level of continued monetary tightening in the upcoming year.

From left: Prof. Nouriel Roubini, Prof. Rafi Melnick, and Mr. Avi Tiomkin

Oren Shalev

From left: Prof. Leo Leiderman, Prof. Zvi Eckstein, Prof. Nouriel Roubini, and Avi Tiomkin

Oren Shalev