ADVOCACY CORNER

The Advocacy Corner will be featured in the newsletter on a bi-monthly basis. We will continue to monitor and track all policy related issues that matter to you, our members, in the lead up to and post the federal election.

TRUDEAU PITCHES HIS NDP BACKED PANDEMIC RECOVERY PLAN AS THE BLOCK SEEKS CONDITIONS AND THE CPC DENY THEIR SUPPORT

By: Michelle Coates Director, Strategy, Public Affairs and Government Relations, Syntax Strategic

Throne Speeches, often dubbed “political word salads” by tongue and cheek journalists and pundits alike, are always grandiose in messaging, light on specifics and peppered with recycled policy commitments. The Trudeau government’s Speech from the Throne was no exception. While Canadians won’t have a full accounting of commitments until a fall fiscal update is introduced, the Throne Speech provided a clear narrative on the direction this government is heading and the priorities it has set.

A month ago, newly appointed Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland was toting the need for a “Green Recovery” strategy. While we can expect that will continue to be this government’s guiding bellwether, the Trudeau government wisely made fighting COVID-19 and saving lives the number one priority of its “Four Foundations” approach to managing Canada’s response to the global pandemic. But once you break down the sub-headers, the Throne Speech boils down to two primary themes – pandemic response and green recovery.

The Highlights The Pandemic Response Plan:

Captured in the governments guiding foundations are immediate actions to tackle the pandemic including extending the Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) to summer 2021; replacing the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) with the Canada Recovery Benefit (CRB); increasing COVID testing capacity; and procuring a range of vaccine options and mass amounts of additional PPE.

In addition to these immediate measures, the Trudeau government revealed a treasure chest of goodies to help Canadians “build back better”. Features include a panCanadian early learning and childcare system; national Pharmacare; universal broadband connectivity; and a lofty

For small and medium sized businesses directly impacted by the pandemic, the Throne Speech signaled further financial relief. The Trudeau government has committed to expanding the Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA); improving the Business Credit Availability Program (BCAP); eliminating barriers to interprovincial trade; and introducing free, automatic tax filing for simple returns.

The Green Recovery Plan:

While the focus of the speech was managing the fight against COVID, Trudeau and his team recognize his base is expecting his government to deliver on its climate change commitments lest Canada be left behind in the postpandemic era.

With that, the Throne Speech laid out the Trudeau governments “resiliency agenda for the middle class” which outlined a few quintessential, but unsurprising policy points that will have direct impacts for the energy and natural resource sectors.

The Trudeau government is doubling down on its commitment to proceed with an influx of investments in renewable energy and next-generation clean energy solutions. In particular, the government has committed to massive subsidies to spur Zero Emission Vehicle manufacturing and charging infrastructure capacity. As an additional incentive, the government will cut corporate tax rates in half for companies who make investments in zeroemissions products.

The speech contains a not so subtle plea to the energy sector, that Canada “cannot reach net zero without [its] know-how” and promises to support manufacturing, natural and energy sectors as they work to “transform to meet a net zero future”, while giving kudos to farmers as they work to reduce their carbon footprints.

The Election Plan:

So, will the Throne Speech trigger a fall election? Unlikely. With nary a mention of oil and gas or a nod to western alienation in the speech, the Conservative Party is fired up and denying its support for the Throne Speech.

The Bloc was quick to counter Trudeau’s approach with a list of demands including increasing health care funding while opposing the government’s proposal for national standards for long-term care.

But Trudeau only needs support from one party.

Within a day of the Throne Speech, Singh secured a major win for the NDP, as the Liberals agreed to their demand to increase the CRB from $400 to $500 per week. While debate on the Throne Speech continues in the house of commons, the NDPs endorsement is likely, thwarting a vote of non-confidence which would otherwise trigger a snap fall election.

The Liberal party's concession to the NDP signals they aren’t looking for an election… yet. In a minority context, there is nothing stopping Trudeau from engineering an election in the form of a mini-budget when it’s convenient for his government.

This is where the game of political risk gets complex. The Liberals are polling well across Canada and with the WE controversy quite strategically pushed into the background, some pundits argue if there were ever a time for Trudeau to trigger an election – now would be it. But it’s a dodgy strategy to rush to an election based on polling numbers at a time like this. As COVID cases continue to creep upward, Trudeau needs to proceed with caution. If he initiates an election too soon, Canadians might just be annoyed enough to give him the boot.

Meanwhile the Conservative Party, under the new leadership of Erin O’Toole, are chomping at the bit for a reason to take down the Trudeau government but they too must proceed with caution. They need time to sort out their vote getting policy initiatives not to mention introduce Mr. O’Toole to Canadians. His team will work hard to distinguish Mr. O’Toole as the more thoughtful, ethical, and empathetic alternative to a Prime Minister who continues to be mired in optics controversies of his government’s own making.

The Bloc are equally eager to take Trudeau to task as they continue to maintain momentum of electoral support much to Trudeau and O’Toole’s chagrin.

Meanwhile Singh and the NDP are nowhere near ready for an election. Their coffers have been cleaned out. They will talk the big talk over the next few months, but they are unlikely to vote non-confidence unless there’s a really compelling reason (namely an uptick in their polling) to do so.

The pandemic will play a central role in Trudeau’s political strategy. He’s betting big that his expensive plan will secure him a majority win, when the time is right.

So, while the odds are increasingly against a fall election, make no mistake, the campaign to lead the country postpandemic has already begun and Canadians can expect to be back at the polls by spring 2021.

Michelle Coates is an experienced leader in public affairs, specializing in government and stakeholder relations, communications strategy development and advocacy outreach. As a government relations representative for CIPMA, Michelle represents the views and interests of independent Canadian fuel marketers across the country, providing timely and pertinent advice and analysis on Federal and Provincial regulations impacting the oil and gas industry.