WHISTLE-BLOWER OR A BOYISH BOAST

The ‘Discord’ leak by a young U.S. National Guards Airman is turning out to be a veritable treasure trove of intelligence. How will it impact the war in Ukraine?

While the whole world was engrossed watching the war erupt in Ukraine early last year, a nondescript 21-yearold U.S. National Guard airman was happily clicking pictures of “top secret” military documents passing through his desk and assiduously posting them on ‘Discord’ a limited circulation messaging app. As per the Washington Post, Jack Teixeira enjoyed official access to the Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communication System, a hub for exchanging top-secret information in the U.S. Defence Department.

Apparently, this was no whistle-blower like Snowden, with an axe to grind with the establishment, but a young blogger with access to classified documents and a smartphone, out to impress his fellow netizens with his ‘vast knowledge’.

Swiftly tracked down and arrested by a SWAT team, Jack Teixeira now faces the grim process of a long stint in a federal penitentiary for his reckless ‘social media sharing.’ A Boston Federal Court charged Teixeira under the U.S. Espionage Act for ‘unauthorised retention and transmission of national defence information and classified documents or material.’

This is nothing new as, apparently, last year, a group of online players on War Thunder posted authentic military documents to justify their game moves and ensuing argument on the net.

As per media reports, the size of the leak is one of the largest ever. It was a veritable treasure trove for a seasoned analyst and newshound- from interesting titbits about the U.S. spying on friends and allies to letting out the secrets of Ukraine’s battle preparations and future offensive plans.

In the interim, these covert documents with impressive military infographics and pie charts went viral on social media.

This would have carried on as Pentagon was blissfully unaware of this massive leak till New York Times broke a story on April 6th, prompting the U.S. Justice Department to open investigations and leading to many red faces and perhaps careers shattered in high offices in the Pentagon.

HOW SERIOUS WAS THE LEAK?

As per media reports, the size of the leak is one of the largest ever. It was a veritable treasure trove for a seasoned analyst and newshound- from interesting titbits about the U.S. spying on friends and allies to letting out the secrets of Ukraine’s battle preparations and future offensive plans.

The information appeared to have been gleaned from reports submitted for consideration by top ech- elon leadership in the Pentagon, sourced from NSA, CIA, Defence Intelligence Agency, DEA, and National Reconnaissance Office (which manages U.S. spy satellites). Shamefacedly, Pentagon acknowledged that the papers were the real thing!

Most worryingly for Ukraine were its plans for an imminent spring counter-offensive in the East which the leak disclosed in uncanny details with pie charts and all.

It also disclosed the Russian military’s intentions to counter the Ukrainian offensive and maintain control over separatist regions.

The leak also revealed information about the types and capabilities of the weapons used by both parties. Luckily for Ukraine, the leaked document did not give any specific details - timelines, location or size of the planned counter-offensive.

This offensive is being presented to the world as a make-or-break moment for President Zelensky to change the battlefield dynamics in their favour, as a prelude to some kind of peace talks.

But Ukraine swallowed a bitter pill, calling the leak “Russian disinformation.” Meanwhile, the net debate raged around whether it was a misinformation ploy of the West!

Officials and analysts are concerned that Russian intelligence could use the information to obtain a strategic advantage in the conflict. For the first time, it was publicly disclosed that U.S. special forces were deployed in Ukraine, thus seriously jeopardising their safety.

Beyond the military tactical level, the more serious damage caused by the leaks could be in the geopolitical arena.

Clearly, the U.S. had the UN Secretary-General based in New York under their surveillance. He was labelled in assessments as “too accommodating to the Russians”, and there were transcripts of his communications with his subordinates.

There were snippets of conversations obviously tapped through unauthorised means of highly placed Jordanian authorities, a close American ally in the Middle East.

Allegedly, as per the leaked documents, Egypt, another U.S. ally, was planning to manufacture 40,000 rockets for Russia.

South Korean National Security Adviser’s telephonic conversations were reproduced, highlighting concerns about supplying weapons to Ukraine under U.S. pressure and antagonising Moscow in the bargain. A via media was being considered to send the weapons/ ammunition to Poland rather than to Ukraine directly.

Of course, for military analysts, the leak provided many interesting takeaways. First, the leak suggests that this is now an all-out information war in which leaks, even if inadvertent, could have serious repercus- sions due to the internet’s and social media’s infinite reach. This could be done deliberately also with sinister motives to undermine the preparations and external support of the adversary.

With the chief architect of the leak safely in the bag, in the instant case, it does not appear such devious intentions were the objective. But detailed investigations will reveal more, provided the information is made public.

Second, the released documents demonstrate that the conflict in Ukraine is, in fact, a multilateral conflict in which the West is a belligerent. The United States and its NATO allies provide Ukraine substantial financial and military assistance.

In addition, Western military strategists continue to assist Ukrainian military officials with their war plans. The documents also emphasise the potential military aid that is currently being provided to Russia, and that could be provided in the future.

Thirdly, the documents revealed that the currently stalemated war will last long. The much-touted Russian winter offensive appears to be waning, if not already concluded.

The battle of Bahkmut, which has been raging for the past few months, exemplifies how the war is currently in a stalemate, with neither party gaining ground despite great effort and expense. Russia has experienced modest advances along with substantial losses.

SNOWDEN LEAK V. PENTAGON LEAK

In 2013, a former National Security Agency (NSA) contractor, Edward Snowden released classified NSA information. However, the Pentagon leak and the Snowden breach differ in a variety of ways.

Initially, the scope of the disclosures varies. While working as a contractor for the National Security Agency (NSA), Snowden obtained an enormous cache of classified documents, which he subsequently leaked. These documents disclosed the scope of the NSA’s domestic and international surveillance programs.

On the other hand, the Pentagon leak appears to involve a solitary document source with access to an assortment of sensitive and potentially damaging documents passing through his desk. There is no single focus in the leaked document.

The motivations behind the disclosures are also diverse. Edward Snowden has stated that he released the documents to expose what he believed to be unconstitutional and intrusive government surveillance practices.

He argued that the public had a right to know about these programs and that they should be curtailed. In contrast, as per media reports, Teixeria, while fully aware of the gravity of what he was doing, did not act in a malicious manner. It appears he was boasting of his proximity to classified information to impress a select group of online friends. Prima facie, it does not appear as a well-planned conspiracy, although it is a felony under U.S. Espionage Laws, just like the British-era Official Secrets Act of India.

The consequences of the breaches vary. Snowden’s disclosures had far-reaching implications for the United States government and the international community.

They prompted a global discussion about privacy, security, and the government’s role in the digital age. They also resulted in U.S. law and policy changes and diplomatic tensions with other nations.

It is too early to speculate on the potential repercussions of the Pentagon leak. Still, it is conceivable that they could be similarly significant, especially when the government has acknowledged the authenticity of the leaked document.

Although the Pentagon leak and the Snowden breach involved the unauthorised release of classified information, their scope, motivations, and consequences were distinct. The Snowden leaks were a watershed moment in the history of government surveillance, whereas the Pentagon leak, despite being significant, is relatively contained.

Assessment

The disclosure is regarded as a serious infringement of national security because it could compromise the security of military personnel and operations in the region. Furthermore, it is believed that the breach could provide valuable intelligence to the opposing forces and influence the outcome of the conflict.

More concerning is the use of gaming chat rooms where increasingly such classified information is being presented and discussed. Even technologically empowered state machinery like the U.S. has virtually no tools to detect such classified material on social media and take immediate action to isolate it and control the damage. This should give sleepless nights to those agencies entrusted with safeguarding the security and secrets of the nation, in the U.S. and elsewhere.

More importantly, the U.S. risks eroding its allies’ faith in its ability to protect intelligence and operatives. The disclosed documents will have a multiplicative effect of diverting officials’ attention away from other pressing national security matters. The disclosures have reignited the debate over the conflict between information and disinformation, espionage and counterespionage, and the veracity and dangers of leaked information.