Market trend - update

19.05.2017 UPDATE

MARKET TREND

GARLIC 

In may, in the province of Henan (Hénán), the season began to harvest the early-ripening garlic. This marks a certain turning point in the domestic Chinese garlic market. Fresh garlic is steadily gaining popularity, and demand for garlic from refrigeration stores is shrinking.

Price trends for garlic in spring 2017 in China  This year, the market of Chinese garlic has two distinctive features: 



At first, because of the increase in this year’s areas of planting garlic at 10% and favorable weather compared to last year, total production of garlic increased by 15%, leading to oversupply in the domestic market. According to preliminary estimates, by the end of may 2017, the volume of the new harvest will be 600 000 tons.

Secondly, storage facilities are still a quite high inventory of last year’s garlic.



These contribute to a significant increase of the market, which is expected to contribute to the movement of the prices down.



On April the domestic price of garlic has reached the maximum, which led to the decrease of export of garlic 11%.



On May the price of garlic from cold storage fell by 40%. In April, it stood at $ 2.9 per kg at the beginning of May to $ 1.54 – 1.68 per kg.

GARLIC 

The Purchase price on young garlic fell from $ 0.75 /kg at the end of April to $ 0.49 /kg in mid-May.



In the past year, the procurement price at that time (mid-May) amounted to $ 0.72 per kg.



So, the price of garlic in China for the 1st quarter compared to the previous year was higher by 28.9%. However, the data for last month show a trend to its decrease. As expected, in the second half of 2017, exports will reach 1.95 million tons, an increase of about 15% annually.



This year some garlic planting area especially Cangshan, have no actual garlic bulb, caused by the weather warming too faster. This situation means that Cangshan fresh garlic crop will be much reduced than expected.



Due to Chinese government have more strictly in environment protect, local government in some dehy garlic produce area including Hebei province, Henan province and Shandong province strictly prohibit the producers which not passed the inspection of sewage treatment system and don't agree the producers burning the coal any longer. This situation caused some little producers can not produce dehy garlic any longer.

GARLIC 

In past years many producers in Hebei Yongnian area can produce lots of tons dehy garlic, but this year they will be prohibited to produce, the output of dehy garlic in this area will be deduced much. In addition in Shandong Shanghe, Jinxiang many producers will also be prohibited to produce due to the strict environment protect policy.



The garlic harvest also started in Spain, in the province of Malaga. This year, the high performance of the garlic harvest from this province has the same high expectations as last year. So, in 2016, a significant increase in garlic production was achieved – by 26% (7.480 tons) compared to 2015. The province brought 19 million euros to the country’s industry.



As for the current year, according to the territorial representative of agriculture, Javier Salas, for the campaign of 2017, the forecasts are good, but the conclusions should be made already by the results of harvesting.

PEPPER 

Pepper market recorded discount beginning from last week with a drop of $ 450-500 per ton. The reason for the sharp drop in prices due to the source of supply is plentiful in addition Cambodia in main seasonal with annual production increasing while weak demand from the oversea buyer and china trader not showing much interesting as before. Other reason became from exporters continue giving price not based on market price to sell short position due to speculative factors.

The mentality of farmers/ domestic agent and exporters is a rather pessimistic view of the pepper market when prices fall too fast and had decreased beyond all recognition of everyone.



India: still in the trend of lower prices of the whole market, however, remained at the highest level. India government giving some procedure to support domestic market.



Indonesia: apparently some information the crop size will lower dramatically as compared to 2016 due to weather. It is expected that the harvest time in July and some exporters have offered to deliver July/August at a price higher than Vietnam around $ 300 - $ 400 / 1MT.



Brazil: continues to be the most competitive at a price below Vietnam's $ 150 - 200 / 1MT. Brazil's new crop is harvest after Indonesia.

PEPPER Other information to ref:  Vietnam exported 25,122 tons in April. A total of 4 months is about 76,363 tons and estimated in May from 18 - 20,000 tons bringing the total output in 5 months about 95 - 100,000 tons. This is the new record of Vietnam’s pepper exports. So we are also shocked that prices have continued to fall while Vietnam has exported a huge number. Crop size is estimated at between 180 and 220,000 tons. Some sources forecast 250,000 tons. However, the total output is only for reference when Vietnam's statistics do not really trust. 

Ramadan will start at the end of May until the end of June. Therefore, it is expected that the demand of the Middle East will be quiet during this time.



Pepper pricing has dropped rapidly while Vietnam has exported large quantities. Therefore farmers continue keeping to stockpile and did not sell much quantity as before.



Indonesian crop continues to be a mystery and may impact on price situation in third quarter 2017.

PEPPER 

Importers from the US / EU will be more active in the market due to their inventory is very thin.



USD is temporary weakening than Vietnam currency from last week (equivalent 20 – 30$ per ton).



China did not have activity from early May but we don't know when they come.

MILK POWDER 

German dairy processors report lower milk deliveries in April compared with April last year. Similar observations were recent weather resulting in slowing pasture development. Data reporting German bulk milk exports to Italy, primarily to make cheese, have been updated this week and reported

by CLAL. January bulk whole milk exports, 22.2 million metric tons, were a 0.9% decrease from January 2016. January bulk skimmed milk exports, 13.1 million metric tons, were a 6.6% increase from January 2016. Efforts in various European countries to increase infant milk formula exports to China have led to overall increases.



January-March 2017 exports compared with one year earlier, had the following percentage share of the China import market and percentage changes in imports:      



Netherlands, 31%,+12%; Ireland, 17%, +17%; France, 13%, +168%; Germany, 9%, -6%; Denmark, 5%, +22%; Switzerland, 3%, +153%.

SKIM MILK POWDER prices in Europe are higher, but not at record levels for

the year. European pricing is lower than in Oceania. Within significant SMP producing countries Germany, France and Netherlands, price strength is exhibited.

MILK POWDER 

There is hope that stronger pricing will persist and provide some stability.

Favorable signs are recent stronger buyer demand from the European food industry and more buyer inquiries about future transactions. The latter includes European and international buyers. Some manufacturers report noticeable competition from the United States is attracting buyer interest.



SWEET WHEY POWDER: European whey prices are stronger and set a new high for 2017. Demand has been strong and continuing price strength is expected. Concerns are voiced about potential supply tightness, which, of course, is a factor in current price strength. Buyers tend to be interested in securing contracts but are also conflicted about doing so at 2017 record high price levels.



WHOLE MILK POWDER prices in Europe are stronger, but still below prices in Oceania. European internal demand is steady. New export transactions are reported by some manufacturers in varied countries. French WMP manufacturers cite recent gains into the market in China. Internal European demand is believed to be a stronger factor influencing prices than exports. EU production of WMP January-February, 2017, declined 0.8% from the same period of 2016 according to Eurostat.