FEATURE
THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SUBMARINE FIBER OPTIC CABLE CAPACITY
Bridging the Global Connectivity Gap by 2030 BY JOEL OGREN
A
s we gather at SubOptic 2025 in Lisbon, a pivotal moment for the submarine cable industry, we stand at the crossroads of unprecedented digital demand and rapid technological evolution. Submarine fiber optic cables, the arteries of global connectivity, have undergone a remarkable transformation over the past decade. Yet, the future beckons with even greater challenges and opportunities. As the CEO of Assured Communications, I am sharing my perspective on the evolution of global submarine cable capacity, the capacity demands anticipated by 2030, and the profound implications for cable manufacturers, data centers, hyperscalers, and network suppliers. This thought piece aims to spark dialogue and collaboration to ensure our industry continues powering the digital economy sustainably and resiliently.
THE PAST DECADE: A QUANTUM LEAP IN CAPACITY
Ten years ago, in 2015, the global submarine cable network was already a marvel of engineering, carrying over 97% of international internet traffic across nearly 1 million
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kilometers of cable. The total global capacity of these systems was estimated at 100–150 terabits per second (Tbps), driven by cables like the Trans-Atlantic MAREA (initially designed for 160 Tbps) and the Asia-Pacific Unity cable (7.68 Tbps). These systems leveraged early coherent transmission technologies and dense wavelength-division multiplexing (DWDM) to maximize data throughput per fiber pair. However, the industry faced a lull in deployments post the early 2000s dotcom bubble, with investments focused on optimizing existing infrastructure rather than laying new cables. Fast forward to 2025, and the landscape has transformed dramatically. According to TeleGeography, the global submarine cable network now spans over 1.5 million kilometers with more than 550 active or planned cables. Total global capacity has surged to an estimated 2,500–3,000 Tbps, a 20-fold increase in a decade. This leap is attributed to several factors: • Technological Advancements: Innovations like Space-Division Multiplexing (SDM), multi-core fiber (MCF), and advanced coherent transponders have pushed perfiber-pair capacities from tens of Tbps to over 250 Tbps