Reorienting Security

Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 45 (March, 2020)

COVID-19 pandemic has profound implications for Taiwan’s national security

Fu-kuo Liu

An Italian government task force meets to formulate plans to combat the COVID-19 Pandemic.

photo: Italian Government

In December 2019, the novel coronavirus now designated COVID-19 broke out in China. Wuhan, a city in central China, was quickly identified as the epicenter of the disease. As the situation worsened, the Chinese government announced a complete and indefinite quarantine lockdown of the city two days before the end of Chinese New Year. By this time, though, the coronavirus had spread far beyond Wuhan, and the entire Hubei Province was also completely locked down soon after. More than 80 cities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have now been fully quarantined.

By around mid-February, it had become clear that COVID-19 had spread to the rest of the world. As of mid-March, following an announcement from the World Health Organization (WHO), South Korea, the United States, Europe and Iran had become new epicenters of the pandemic. Never before in modern times has the global public faced such an infectious disease and such widespread fear and concern around the world. As human beings do not have sufficient understanding of the coronavirus yet, the challenge it presents is not yet fully known. So far, amid great uncertainty, the coronavirus pandemic has forced offices, schools, and factories to shut down and disrupted global transportation, the tourist industry, manufacturing supply chains, etc. Global financial markets have plunged into an unknown situation, which could likely result in a global economic recession. The prospects for the 2020 economic and financial markets are bleak.

Recently, challenges to public health have become a critical part of national security, as the outbreak of COVID-19 has so far claimed more than 8,000 fatalities (as of 18 March) globally. Moreover, national security is not only challenged by the spread of COVID-19, but also threatened by the psychological fear triggered by disinformation and fake news related to the virus. Since COVID-19 is so unprecedented, national governments and international organizations such as the WHO are still trying to figure out how the virus was generated, what the nature of the virus is, how it develops, and more importantly, how it can be dealt with. With the uncertain nature of this unknown virus, fear of unpredictability may have provided sufficient grounds for further speculation and spreading rumors.

In light of the continuing spread of COVID-19, many analysts have examined the possible consequences of disruptions to interstate transportation and global supply chains. Others are even looking into new highlights of national security that have been clearly identified. Confronting the threat of COVID-19, there are three key areas in information that need to be seriously considered: new hackers breaking into personal computers and electronic devices to steal personal information, disinformation regarding the spread of the coronavirus, and utilization of information technology and big data.

Working against the clock

As COVID-19 spreads quickly in China and the rest of the world, the WHO and related international institutions, as well as national health agencies, have worked against the clock to contain and address the outbreak in their communities. New information and instructions have been sent by health institutions to the public. At the same time, hackers are taking advantage of the fear over the coronavirus to send fake emails promising health kits to unsuspecting users, only to be infected with Emotet malware.

A street poster in Xinhuang Dong Autonomous County, Hunan, China reminds people to protect against the coronavirus.

photo: Huangdan2060

It has been reported that with the spread of COVID-19, hackers are gaining ground by injecting malware into victims’ computers. They would either utilize ransomware to extract illegal profits or hack into numerous computers and control victims’ financial information. Over the last few months, various malicious files disguised as various forms of documents containing information about the coronavirus have been widely reported. COVID-19 has greatly disrupted the regular world order and will change the way we live. Hackers are taking advantage of this chaotic period and will further complicate national security.

A depiction of the spread of COVID-19 cases around the world as of March 28th 2020.

Image: Pharexia

Fake news

Beyond the cyber security of individual users, many communities around the world have faced the spread of disinformation and fake news about the pandemic. As COVID-19 is a new and completely unknown virus to human society, a large amount of disinformation is being intentionally or unintentionally spread through the Internet creating false stories about the pandemic. As a result, it has spread tremendously in many societies. The threat of COVID-19 has become a serious challenge to national security as well as global security, as the pandemic may overwhelm the existing medical capacity of some countries. Apprehension among the general public may easily be diverted by disinformation which acts against national interests. Early this year, when the coronavirus emerged in the PRC, much disinformation appeared on websites. Because officials attempted to hide evidence of the spreading epidemic, people who are very critical of official mishandling spread a great deal of information and disinformation over the Internet. Even as officials were trying to hide the real situation, grassroots resentment began to grow, and individuals tried to appeal to a wider audience through various social media outlets. The high volume of criticism on the Internet rapidly spreading all over China and abroad was alarming to the Chinese Communist regime, which regarded this criticism as a threat. Western media began to speculate that the position of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, would be shaken by the coronavirus. From Beijing’s perspective, the sort of disinformation being disseminated outside the control of governmental messaging carried broader political signals, and perhaps even represented a political agenda against the Party.

In mid-March, a quarrel broke out between the United States and China that centered on a disinformation campaign about to the source of the coronavirus. US intelligence agencies implied that Russia, China, Iran and other countries were waging a disinformation campaign against the United States. This disinformation was accompanied by a convincing discourse aimed at fomenting fear and distrust in national leadership amid the pandemic. This all began when PRC Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian suggested on social media that COVID-19 may have been brought to Wuhan by American soldiers last November as part of a biological warfare attack.

“CDC was caught on the spot. When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” Zhao tweeted. It has been suggested that Zhao was attempting to amplify criticism of the US government’s sluggish response to the spread of COVID-19, while at the same time clearing the Chinese regime of responsibility for beginning the disease.

Fighting chaos

In Canada, national security agencies dismantled a fake government coronavirus pandemic response website in March to prevent the spread of such chaotic messages. As hostile actors and cyber criminals try to capitalize on public fears of COVID-19 and persist in mocking and criticizing government policies, the spread of disinformation will complicate government efforts and even compromise government credibility in fighting against the pandemic.

Misinformation and disinformation related to the COVID-19 pandemic has mainly spread via social media and private messaging platforms. Although disinformation may not directly have any tangible impact, at least compared to other types of cybercriminal activities, it can cause large-scale panic, incite racist attacks and xenophobia, promote harmful homemade cures, and result in shortages of supplies and critical medical equipment. In fighting against the proliferation of disinformation, the WHO has

“COVID-19 related misinformation and disinformation has mainly spread via social media and private messaging platforms.”

even labeled this malicious campaign an “infodemic.” In the fight against the spread of COVID-19, it is critical to be able to utilize modern technologies, especially information technology, artificial intelligence (AI), big data, etc. to help trace and monitor. China was the first country hit by COVID-19, and suffered a tremendous loss of life. In order to manage and control the spreading of COVID-19 on the ground, the PRC government utilized AI, drones, and big data to increase their monitoring capabilities. As the government announced quarantine lockdowns on numerous cities, AI, drones and other IT assets were being deployed in hospitals, on city streets, and in mass transportation hubs to make sure that the real-time data obtained by command centers accurately reflected the situation on the ground. The pandemic crisis has forced Chinese society to shift away from traditional ways of conducting commerce and communications. It has presented a quantum leap in implementing information technology in China. As one of China’s most immediate neighbors, Taiwan was expected to suffer a large number of COVID-19 cases. On the contrary, Taipei has so far carefully managed the first wave of virus cases from China. Now, COVID-19 is fast spreading throughout the world, and South Korea, Europe, Iran, and the United States will be the next epicenters to be watched cautiously.

President Tsai makes a visit to the First Tactical Fighter Wing.

photo: ROC Presidential Office

Taiwan, which learned harsh lessens from the painful experience coping with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, has a well-prepared medical care system. As soon as the news of cases of a new coronavirus strain began to emerge from Wuhan, the Central Epidemic Command Center under the Ministry of Health and Welfare was quickly assembled and began operating in January. The center makes decisions on medical advice and emergency response, as well as taking the lead in the distribution of medical supplies and equipment.

Big data assets

Taiwan’s government has managed to utilize its own IT, AI, and big data assets to allocate medical resources and quarantine places, and track those who require quarantine. As COVID-19 appears to be an unprecedented threat to human society and national security, modern technologies will definitely become part of national security and could lead us to a comfortable way of deterring and denying the pandemic. With COVID-19 rapidly spreading, the spring of 2020 is shaping up to become a pivotal time in human history. The situation now in China seems to be becoming more stable. The rest of the world is still witnessing the rapid spread of COVID-19, however. There are three lessons which have implications for national security.

First, the pandemic could really change the global economic and power structure. So far, apart from the WHO, there has been no significant international cooperation on countering COVID-19. This emergency demonstrates that countries such as the United States, where intrusive government surveillance and curtailment of personal freedoms are anathema, are having a harder time dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak, and are powerless to do much about it, despite Washington’s position as a world leader.

Second, accompanying the spread of COVID-19 has been the spread of disinformation and fake news about the crisis, and this has emerged as a significant issue challenging the stability of national security. This threat should be incorporated into the cyber security domain and should be addressed within the framework of national security.

Third, the use of information technology has played a significant role in tracking and managing COVID-19. More effort should be placed on developing the full potential of informational technology to further assist in the fight against COVID-19, as well as future pandemics. n

Dr. Fu-kuo Liu is the director of the Taiwan Center for Security Studies at National Chengchi University and editor of Strategic Vision. He can be reached for comment at fkliu@nccu.edu.tw