Shifting Winds

Strategic Vision vol. 6, no. 32 (April, 2017)

Wen-hao Lu

Following then-President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that he had taken a congratulatory call from the president of the Republic of China (ROC), Tsai Ing-wen, the rapt attention of the whole world has been on how this could potentially change the trilateral relationship between the United States, China, and Taiwan. This call was significant for Taiwan because it represented the first such conversation between a sitting president in Taiwan and a US president (or presidentelect) since Washington broke official diplomatic relations with Taipei in 1979. For the Tsai administration, there was good reason to celebrate, because it could hearken a remarkable breakthrough and an important milestone in US-Taiwan relations.

Nevertheless, the truth proved less auspicious. The incoming US president was not in favor of supporting Taiwan’s diplomatic development, as it at first seemed. Rather, as an extremely successful businessman, Trump appeared to have been using the move as part of a “give-and-take” strategy for handling the trade deficit and the North Korea issues with China. Moreover, compared to his strong criticisms prior to taking office, President Trump’s rhetoric on China has softened, further demonstrating that Washington will likely “give” more in order to “take” something from Beijing. In analyzing Trump’s give-and-take strategy, it is naive to believe that the United State will put Taiwan’s security interests first while Trump is trying to earn points of leverage from China. In this situation, it is important for Taiwan’s policy makers not to pick a side or to depend on one specific party. Instead, Taiwan should pursue a better option, which is to maintain good relationships with all parties in the region.

The drive to bring jobs back to the United States has been a successful campaign strategy that helped Donald Trump to win the presidential election. Trump made trade a centerpiece of his presidential campaign and railed against what he said were bad deals with foreign countries, which are taking jobs from Americans. Trump identified China as the prime culprit. Trump’s intent to raise trade issues with China was even more obvious in the presidential transition: He continued to accuse Beijing of stealing jobs from the United States, questioned the One China Policy, and appointed a prominent China hawk to head the National Trade Council. These moves seem reasonable in view of Trump’s efforts to bend China to his will. These measures, particularly the questioning of the One China Policy, have touched a sensitive nerve in China. Therefore, it will be an extremely difficult task for Trump to make headway against China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping will no doubt take strong actions to counteract such provocations from Washington.

In Trump’s 1987 book “The Art of the Deal,” the author expresses pride and confidence in his negotiation skills and considers himself to be one of the world’s most adept negotiators. Prior to coming to power, the way he has dealt with China demonstrated his negotiation approach. As an extraordinarily successful businessman, Trump will likely fall back on his negotiation capabilities to achieve his objectives. It is easy to observe that the Trump administration has employed a give-and-take strategy so far. For example, in order to show his goodwill to Beijing, he appointed Xi Jin-ping’s long-term friend Terry Branstad as the ambassador to China and cited mutual respect between Washington and Beijing. On the other hand, he named Peter Navarro, an ardent critic of China and author of the books “The Coming China Wars” and “Death by China,” to head the White House National Trade Council, which raised speculation about a possible trade war with China. Clearly, Trump’s phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen and his statements hinting at a possible change to the One China Policy reveal that Trump is not above using Taiwan as a bargaining chip in this give-and-take strategy.

During his December, 2016 interview on Fox News Sunday, President-elect Trump stated, “I fully understand the One China Policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China Policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade.” This remark signals that Trump is trying to exploit the policy as another good measure to pressure China.

Questioning the One China policy may seem like a quick and clever way to get China’s attention. However, it could prove to be a reckless and ill-considered move.

Since Washington and Beijing established diplomatic ties in 1979, the One China Policy has been the cornerstone of Sino-US relations and the fundamental bedrock of Chinese policy-making and diplomacy. President Barack Obama, in a long farewell news conference, warned the incoming Trump administration that the longstanding One China Policy has “kept the peace” and is at the core of how China sees itself.

In fact, the ambiguity behind this decades-old policy actually benefits the United States, China, and Taiwan. The United States is not forced to adopt a position on just what “One China” means or on how reunification could be accomplished, and it remains free to engage with Taiwan economically and militarily. In addition, adhering to this principle can actually minimize the sensitivity of the Taiwan factor in Sino-US relations. On the other hand, challenging the One China Policy would give Beijing an excuse to resist the US military presence in the Asia Pacific.

Clearly, Beijing is the major beneficiary of the One China Policy. It has enabled China to claim political legitimacy in the United Nations and other world bodies while helping it to shut Taiwan out of the international community almost completely—even before China’s economic growth took root. As a result, the policy benefits China because it virtually rules out the possibility of Taiwan independence, and forces the United States and other nations to pay lip service to Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a province of China.

Taiwan also derives benefits from the One China Policy insofar as it maintains the status quo, which is what most people in Taiwan support. They believe that Beijing will not interfere with the island's de facto self-rule as long as it is convinced that Taiwan will not move towards independence.

Since his inauguration, President Trump has made many attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. However, various setbacks have forced Trump to realize that some issues might not be solved as easily as he originally expected. Domestically, he signed an executive order to ban the citizens of countries such as Iran and Afghanistan from entering the United States for a period of a few months. This order was quickly suspended by judges in several states due to concerns over its constitutionality. Moreover, the effort to repeal Obamacare failed to get consensus from the Senate, with some Republican senators refusing to support the new health care plan. The much-discussed wall planned for the US-Mexican border will now have to be paid for with US taxpayer money, rather than being paid for by Mexico as Trump originally pledged.

In observing Trump's very different approaches towards trade with China before and after taking office, it is fair to say that the US president now has a clearer picture of Sino-US relations and a better understanding of the consequence of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. In February 2017, just 22 days after his inauguration, President Trump had his first conversation with his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping. In it, Trump committed himself to honoring the One China Policy, at Xi's request. In addition, the Trump-Xi summit in Florida displayed neither fierce confrontation on trade issues nor disagreement over the One China Policy. Instead, both presidents emphasized the need to build a warm relationship and engage in more practical cooperation in the future. It is significant to point out that Trump has said his administration would not label China a currency manipulator—again, breaking a major campaign promise.

As a person who has engaged in give-and-take negotiating throughout his business career, one can understand Trump’s attraction to identifying and utilizing points of leverage. However, the means he uses could put Taiwan in a risky position and further destabilize the regional security environment. The worse scenario would start with a trade war between Washington and Beijing. Taipei, which heavily relies on exports, would experience a catastrophic economic hit. It is also possible that Taiwan’s national interests will be damaged if Trump promises to give something to China in exchange for cooperation on, for example, reining in the regime in North Korea. A well-known Kenyan proverb perfectly describes Taiwan’s awkward and perilous position: “When two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” Taiwan is the grass in this scenario, and will be trampled on if the government fails to recognize the real situation and to think and to act cleverly.

The pro-China foreign policy initiated by President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, which seeks to balance alliance commitments to the United States with a desire to build stronger ties with China, can serve as a great case study for Taiwan’s policy makers. Under Trump’s give-and-take strategy, completely depending on one side and totally ignoring or even infuriating the other will not be helpful in terms of the nation’s economic and regional stability.

At this critical moment, Taipei’s best option is to maintain a careful neutrality if the two powers move toward conflict. Moreover, Taiwan does not want to fall victim to the give-and-take strategy. Rather than shutting the door and sticking to ideology, it is better to keep cross-strait communication channels open. This will help prevent misunderstanding and build mutual trust.

Colonel Wen-hao Lu is currently attending the US Marine Corps War College in Quantico, Virginia. He can be reached for comment at luwenhao73@gmail.com