ONE OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

4. ACTIVE PHASE OF THE OPERATION TO COUNTER WESTERN AID TO UKRAINE. ONE OF THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

Part of the information generated by the aggressor in order to destroy Western aid to Ukraine, clearly shows that this direction of aggression is not even one of the main, but undoubtedly the main at this stage. The purpose of conducting information operations in this area is to prepare public opinion of both Ukrainian society and the countries that provide us with assistance, to the need to stop it.

But carrying out only information operations does not stop providing assistance. This requires concrete action in the political and economic spheres. And the information operations that precede these actions provide a favorable basis for public support, even if they are to the detriment of society.

According to the plan of the aggressor country, the deprivation of Ukraine of Western aid and its further isolation should be carried out through strikes on the guarantees provided by the Ukrainian authorities to fulfill the conditions of this aid. These conditions are the implementation of the reforms proposed by the West. It is the reforms proposed and voluntarily accepted by Ukraine, the implementation of which, as mentioned above, objectively meets the interests of Ukrainian society and poses a threat to the power of the oligarchs and the corrupt «elite».

Such guarantees are determined by the adoption and validity of the laws of Ukraine governing reforms. These include the land market law, a number of anti-corruption laws and some others.

The repeal of these laws will lead to the cessation of assistance, including financial assistance, which in turn will lead to economic collapse in the country.

The development of the operation should take place in the following conditions:

• no direct «traces» from the Russian Federation;

• the initiative comes from Ukrainians, preferably - the people («direct democracy» - an effective tool of hybrid war, which since the early 2000s, Russia is trying to create in Ukraine), as a last resort - the people’s deputies;

• everything must take place in the legal field of Ukraine.

What are the options for repealing the laws if there are not enough votes in the Verkhovna Rada?

Option 1. «Democracy through a referendum» - the most effective. Carrying out such an operation in the legal field of Ukraine leaves no reason for the West not to recognize the results of the plebiscite. Russia’s testing of the method of «referendums» in the Crimea and Donbas outside the legal field of Ukraine has not ensured the legitimacy of «expression of will» among the world’s leading countries.

In addition, the success of the mechanism of «direct democracy through a referendum» is ensured by the low awareness of the source of power (the «people») of dependence on the subject of the ref-

erendum state and economic security (emotional voting such as «our land was stolen and given to the West», “they do nothing ”, etc.), lack of understanding of the impact of the referendum results in the long run and even in the medium term.

Bill № 3612 “On democracy through an all-Ukrainian referendum” (as of the end of 2020) contains Article 3, which regulates one of the subjects of the all-Ukrainian referendum “the issue of repeal of the law of Ukraine or certain provisions thereof”.

Its adoption by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine creates favorable conditions for pro-Russian structures to implement the procedure for repealing the laws of Ukraine necessary for cooperation with the West (the development of the operation is described in detail in M. Honchar, V. Gorbach, S. Savchenko’s article “Autumn Hybrid Offensive. Operation” through democracy federalization “in the publication” Mirror of the Week”).

At the same time, the bill contains a number of safeguards that complicate its use by the aggressor for their destructive purposes in relation to the state (complicate, but do not make such use impossible).

Option 2. «Democracy through polls»

The mechanism, which was actually launched three weeks before the local elections in October 2020, can be seen as an attempt to use option 1 outside the legal field. The lack of legally established regulations for conducting such a survey, starting from the list of issues that are allowed / not allowed to be submitted to the «poll» and ending with the procedure for protecting the choice of citizens (protected ballots, the process of counting and reporting results, appeal procedure, implementation) calls into question its results in the eyes of both society and Western partners.

The trial nature of such a step is evidenced by the absence in the list of polls of issues that directly guarantee Western assistance to Ukraine (land, banking, abolition of anti-corruption norms).

At the same time, the threat of such an attempt is as follows:

• the practice of applying unforeseen actions of the authorities in the form of free polls has been introduced into the political sphere, the results of which will be positioned as the will of the people and based on which arbitrary decisions will be made by the authorities (arguing that the poll in October 2020 will have legal consequences, but will have political, and will be taken into account when implementing them in law);

• a precedent was set for local authorities, which received a template to initiate and conduct a «poll» to further approve a favorable decision, under the guise of «legitimate will of the people» within the administrative unit (greatest threat in regions where local authorities are controlled by pro-Russian forces). The range of such decisions may include most issues critical to Ukraine’s national security (land, language, taxes, free economic zones, «cooperation» with the regions of neighboring countries, etc.).

Option 3. «Unconstitutionality of the law». It is implemented through the direct power of the Constitutional Court to declare laws unconstitutional, which provides for their repeal.

Thus, the decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine № 13-r / 2020 of October 27, 2020 declared unconstitutional a number of provisions of the Law of Ukraine «On Prevention of Corruption» and, frankly beyond its powers, abolished criminal liability for declaring false information, ie Art. 366-1 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine, which led to a constitutional crisis and created a real threat of termination of Western aid, at least to the extent provided under the condition of creating an anticorruption system in Ukraine.

This should be considered as the first active action of the operation to halt the support to

Ukraine.

Conditions that facilitate the implementation of the operation:

• the appointment of judges (including the President of the Court) during the presidency of

Yanukovych, which provides for certain personal «debt obligations» to politicians who have remained in the SPC;

• «recruitment vulnerability» or in other words the presence of factors of pressure on judges by the aggressor (land in the Crimea, relatives - citizens of the Russian Federation, the aggressor has financial income in the country, etc.);

• personal interest of judges (there is something to hide from anti-corruption bodies, a number of judges appear in NABU cases);

• corruption of the judicial system of Ukraine (corruption is a key tool of the Russian Federation in the «hybrid war», together with Russian interpretations of the «rule of law» and «freedom of speech»).

The operation began quickly - with the abolition of anti-corruption norms immediately after the local elections and, as evidenced by the reaction of the President of Ukraine, unexpectedly for the government. At the same time, the existence of external influence on the Court’s decision was recognized.

There is also information support of the operation. In the infospace, the focus of public attention is on the Constitutional Court, the corruption of judges, the elimination of anti-corruption infrastructure. At the same time, the main goal of the aggressor, which is to destroy Western aid to Ukraine, is deliberately concealed.

The call of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine to assess the events in terms of the war against Ukraine and the President’s phrase that the system of assistance to Ukraine, which it desperately needs, is collapsing, sounded somewhat dissonant in the media mainstream. «We are following the clear actions of a group of people aimed at destroying Ukrainian statehood ... Moreover, I have no doubt that the aggressor country took part in this,» he said.

A precedent has been set for the further repeal of other laws, which is the basis for further rapid development of the operation.

As of the end of 2020, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine is considering petitions of people’s deputies on the unconstitutionality of the laws of Ukraine «On the State Bureau of Investigation», «On Prevention of Corruption», «On Amendments to Certain Legislative Acts of Ukraine on Agricultural Land Circulation Conditions». «On the Supreme Anti-Corruption Court», the validity of which directly affects the support of Ukraine by the West.

A deterrent to the aggressor’s operations is the decisive reaction to the decision of the Constitutional Court by both the government and civil society. This reaction indicates that despite the scale of the information operations conducted by us during the preparatory period, they were not effective enough and did not achieve the goal set by the aggressor.

And the real prospect of being on the dock not for non-declaration, but for treason, we will hopefully, stopped the determination of judges on the destructive decisions of the state..

Current situation:

1. Russia has moved to the next stage of the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, the key task of which is to isolate Ukraine from the West, to stop providing assistance to it.

2. Probable planned algorithm of implementation of the aggression plan: cessation of assistance to

Ukraine (primarily financial) by the West - economic collapse and socio-economic shocks, deepened by the problem of pandemic - transfer of socio-economic crisis to socio-political discrediting the central government - promotion the idea of the independent existence of regions without an ineffective parasitic center - the provision of assistance by the aggressor to selected regions - hidden or overt federalization or disintegration of the country.

3. The first step has been taken - a precedent for repealing the law. The resulting effect - the IMF (and with it other international financial organizations) suspended assistance to Ukraine (refused to provide emergency assistance).

4. Attacks to end cooperation with the West will be stepped up. Attempts to repeal other key anticorruption and land reform laws are to be expected in the future.

The cessation of financial assistance from the West will inevitably lead to a devastating economic crisis for the country (especially in a pandemic and the associated economic downturn) with mass impoverishment, which will immediately use Russia and its agents in Ukraine to translate the economic crisis into society. political plane, directing public protests against the central government.

The development of the final stage of Russia’s operation to destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty will depend on the level of political and economic crisis in our country, first of all, the level of centrifugal tendencies in the regions («federalization», loss of territories, takeovers, etc.).